UPDATE: This was very much a stream of consciousness blog post, where I wrote down my thoughts as they occurred to me. Among other things, this meant that it lacked a good summary of what it is actually supposed to be about. The basic idea was/is to take Clayton Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation in business and apply it to music and (by extension) to other arts, with a goal of sketching out a “unified field theory” that (with suitable elaboration) could potentially explain how music evolves not only from an aesthetic perspective but also in terms of the sociology and economics of the communities of composers, performers, critics, educators, audiences, etc., who participate in particular musical traditions and movements. I referenced Kyle Gann a lot because for a while I’ve been reading his blog and his writings on downtown vs. uptown music, but the themes of the post are really more in line with the writings of people like Alex Ross and (in particular) Greg Sandow who’ve been writing about the future of classical music in relation to popular music and the rest of contemporary culture.

Kyle Gann (composer, musicologist, writer, educator) recently wrote a blog post, The Epistemology of Elitism, that posited a way to get beyond sterile debates on whether some types of music are objectively better than other types (e.g., the classical vs. pop music argument). To quote Gann at length:

John [Luther Adams] and I put together a registry of musical virtues that was isomorphically analogous to a classification of audiences.

For instance: there are people for whom the best music must involve innovation. These people are likely to value Varese, Partch, Cage. There are others who value craftsmanship above all else. These people tend to like Hindemith, Sessions, perhaps Ligeti. Other people feel that music should be, above all else, emotionally true; perhaps they gravitate toward Barber, Vaughan Williams, maybe Messiaen. There are people who love music for its sonic lushness and sensuousness, who may relish Takemitsu and Feldman. There are people who value clarity, who value simplicity, who value intellectualism, who value memorability, who value physicality, who value theoretical rigor. Most people value several of these virtues, and we could create Venn diagrams of audiences who love different new musics because of the specific virtues they possess. The innovation + emotive sincerity intersectors love Ives. The intellectualism + sensuousness people love Takemitsu. That’s what John and I were coming up with.

I think these virtues could be categorized, and I think it would be a worthwhile and revealing musicological exploit. I think it could become the prolegomena to a sociology of new-music (and other) audiences.

I happen to have a weakness for aesthetic theories, and commented on what I thought were some interesting implications of this one, including what I thought was an possible point of intersection with Clayton Christensen‘s theory of disruptive innovation. Gann replied positively to my comments and added It’d be great if we could use findings from other fields to lay out the groundwork for all this. That was all the encouragement I needed to write at length about this topic (though needless to say Gann bears no responsibilities for any excesses or errors I’ve committed).

A framework for a possible theory of aesthetic innovation

Let me first say that I am definitely not the person to construct an aesthetic theory of everything. The best I can do is try to explain Christensen’s theory and point out possible analogies and connections with how aesthetic and related changes occur in music and other arts. Consider this the barest sketch of a possible theory of innovation in the arts. Others can either take this further (if they think it’s a potentially fruitful approach) or demonstrate that it’s total poppycock (if they don’t)

What I like about Christensen’s theory as applied to this context is that it offers a theoretical framework that is rich enough to include all the actors within an aesthetic movement—not just artists but also the audience, critics, patrons, etc.—and to also account for historical and technological factors. I think this is an advance over theories that posit that art evolves in some autonomous manner (e.g., in inevitably repeating cycles of innovation, elaboration, and decadence) or that focus solely on artists and their reactions to each other (e.g., as discussed in Harold Bloom’s Anxiety of Influence).

What should we look for in such a theory? In the context of business Christensen’s theory purports to explain (among other things) why established companies fail to capitalize on particular types of innovation, how new entrants to markets can successfully compete with and (in many cases) displace incumbent vendors, what characteristics truly innovative vendors, products, and business models tend to have, and how such innovative vendors, products, and business models tend to evolve over their lifetime in the market. In the aesthetic realm a variant of Christensen’s theory may function similarly, providing insight into how aesthetic innovations and artistic movements are born, received initially, evolve over time, and (in some cases) successfully compete with and displace existing artistic works and movements.

In the discussion that follows I focus on music, but to the extent it works at all the framework is general enough to be applied to other artistic endeavors. My explanations of Christensen’s theory are drawn from the book Seeing What’s Next: Using Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change (SWN), Christensen’s most comprehensive treatment of his ideas, including both a useful summary of his various theories (as an appendix) and several informative case studies. Those interested in Christensen’s ideas should also consult his earlier books, The Innovator’s Dilemma and The Innovator’s Solution in order to see the evolution of his thinking.

Artists and their markets

Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation was originally formulated in the context of technology-based businesses (e.g., computer companies), and thus our basic strategy is to equate the world of art with the world of business at a fairly deep level. (If this offends you please stop reading now.)

We start with vendors selling products to customers; a set of similar vendors providing similar products to a set of similar customers constitutes a particular market. In the simplest model applied to music we can identify composers with vendors, compositions with products, and listeners with customers. The price paid to composers for their products may be in the form of patronage (direct or indirect) or simply in the form of sustained attention to and engagement with their works.

Note that Christensen’s theories can be applied to individual companies or to groups of companies providing similar (though not necessarily identical) products as part of an overall market. Similarly in our analogies we’ll sometimes deal with individual composers and sometimes with groups of composers who are associated with particular aesthetic movements.

Note also that in the full Christensen theory vendors are part of value networks, defined as [a firm's] upstream suppliers; its downstream customers, retailers, and distributors; and its partners and ancillary industry players (SWN, p.63). In our musical example components in the value network could include performers, critics, promoters, instrument makers, and others. For now we’ll ignore these others for purposes of our analysis, but we’ll come back to them later. In particular, we assume for the moment that performers simply transmit composers’ intentions faithfully, and we lump critics and patrons (including institutional patrons) in with listeners in general.

Finally, note that (as with other art forms such as painting, poetry, etc.) products may outlive their vendors, so that composers today are competing for listeners not only with their contemporaries but with past composers as well. I’ll come back to this topic later as well.

Jobs to be done

The next key component of Christensen’s theory is the concept of jobs to be done. In Christensen’s formulation, customers hire products in order to accomplish a particular job (SWN, p.281). Jobs to be done can be very straightforward: for example, most customers hire cell phones to do the job of enabling them to make and receive phone calls while out and about. Jobs to be done can also be more complicated, and not necessarily apparent based on the surface nature of the product. For example, I make more use of my iPhone to access the Internet, including reading blog posts, than I do to make voice calls. A large part of the job I am hiring the iPhone to do is to provide a source of information and entertainment in contexts where I have nothing better to do (e.g., waiting in line at a store).

People also hire music for certain jobs to be done. For example, religious music helps intensify the ritual of worship, chamber music can be used as an aural background for social occasions, opera provides an entertaining spectacle, and so on. Jobs can exist within a specific cultural context; for example, the original job of rock music was to provide teenagers a compelling vision of rebellion and excess. Christensen notes that in general the job that customers may hire a product to do may differ greatly from what the vendor intended them to use it for. This is true for music as well; for example, many people listen to religious music for purely aesthetic pleasure, outside the context of a worship service.

In the context of music the jobs to be done concept allows us to address both sociological and psychological aspects of music—i.e., that music has particular social uses and also fulfills certain human pyschological needs. I haven’t read a lot in the relevant literature, so I won’t be concerned too much about what exactly these uses and needs are. (See Daniel Levitin’s This Is Your Brain on Music: The Science of a Human Obsession and similar works that attempt to address these questions.) For the purposes of this analysis I simply assume that such uses and needs exist, that there are a multiplicity of them, and that a particular composition may satisfy each of them to greater or lesser degrees. This leads us to our next topic.

Dimensions of performance

When customers seek to hire a product to do a certain job for them, they evaluate the product based on certain dimensions of performance (SWN, p.277). (Performance here is used not in the musical sense but in the sense of how well products do their jobs.) For example, a mobile phone may be judged on its weight and voice quality, among other characteristics.

In the case of music the dimensions of performance can be identified with the various aesthetic virtues discussed by Gann, perhaps augmented by certain aspects of music that relate to its social uses and are not captured by the purely aesthetic virtues. Thus, for example, people may judge a composition by how emotional it is, how deep it is (i.e., requiring repeated listening for maximum appreciation), the degree to which it exhibits novelty in its form (what Gann refers to as being innovative), and so on.

Note that some of these virtues refer to points along a single spectrum; for example, we can contrast a deep musical piece with one that elicits immediate appreciation. Others are wholly or partially orthogonal to each other; for example, Gann describes Toru Takemitsu’s music as being simultaneously intellectual and sensuous.

Sustaining vs. disruptive innovations

Now we come to the most important and well-known component of Christensen’s framework, his disruptive innovation theory (SWN, pp.277-279). Christensen divides innovations into two general types:

  • sustaining innovations directed to demanding customers in an existing market, or
  • disruptive innovations directed to less demanding and more price-sensitive customers in an existing market (low-end disruption) or to new customers or new uses by existing customers (new market disruption).

Thus, for example, when mobile phones were first introduced they were a disruptive innovation relative to traditional phones, as they enabled people to make calls in new contexts. Since then mobile phone vendors have been producing sustaining innovations for demanding customers who want lighter phones, phones with longer battery life, etc.

Note also that disruptive innovations can be in the form of new technologies or new business models. Pre-paid mobile phones leveraged existing technology in the context of a new business model that represented a low-end disruptive innovation, enabling people to afford basic cellular service without the need to sign up for an expensive plan.

Returning to music, we can imagine composers creating (for example) deep works to which certain audiences respond appreciatively, and in response inventing new compositional techniques to make their works even deeper. Such new techniques would count as innovations, though in this case they are sustaining innovations only. (Note that I am here using the word innovation in a slightly different sense than Gann.)

At some point in time other composers may begin writing music of a different type, one that appeals to other listeners; for example, such composers may eschew depth and pioneer different compositional techniques that create music with a clear audible structure that audiences can immediately apprehend and appreciate. From the perspective of the prior composers and their works this would count as a disruptive innovation, and in particular a new-market disruptive innovation, since it is directed at new customers not being well-served by the incumbent composers.

As noted above, in the context of music and other arts the price may not be (only) in money, but may also be paid in terms of attention, engagement, and the level of effort required to experience the work. If a given work can provide a reasonably satisfying aesthetic experience at least comparable to (though perhaps still inferior to) that of a more expensive work (i.e., one demanding more attention, engagement, and effort to experience properly) then it can be considered a low-end disruptive innovation. For example, the 3-minute pop song may have functioned in this way vis-a-vis longer works.

Investing in sustaining innovations directed at demanding customers

Christensen’s theory of disruptive innovation originated in his desire to explain why so many successful and innovative companies missed out on the creation of important new markets and were eventually displaced by new market entrants. For example, DEC was blindsided by the success of the PC and the rise of Intel and Microsoft, while Microsoft did not foresee the strategic importance of search engines like Google’s.

Christensen’s explanation for this innovator’s dilemma is that companies invest in innovations that are consistent with their capabilities, business models and processes, and overall priorities in serving their existing market. Christensen refers to this as the resources, processes, and values (RPV) theory (SWN, p.279). For example, if a cellular company owns its own network and is expert at managing it, and has customers that put a high premium on (and are willing to pay for) market-leading reliability and ubiquity of cellular services, then that company will tend to invest disproportionately in innovations that improve the quality of the network, at the expense of innovations that might reduce the cost of cellular service, enable new applications, etc.

In musical terms the RPV theory implies that incumbent composers (i.e., those who have already achieved some measure of success) will innovate based on the stock of compositional techniques that they have already learned and mastered, in the social and institutional context in which they are already situated, and for the same types of rewards (tangible or non-tangible) as those to which they have become accustomed.

In many cases a company’s priorities in pursuing new innovations are driven by its most demanding customers, those for whom the company’s products are not yet good enough—i.e., they fall short of customers’ needs and preferences along whatever dimensions of performance are most important in the market served by the company. The most demanding customers are typically the most vocal in their complaints and product feature requests, and also typically those most willing to pay a premium for products most nearly meeting their needs.

If our analogies hold we would expect a similar phenomenon in music: Composers would strive to innovate in furtherance of the particular aesthetic virtues valued by their most demanding listeners, i.e., those who have the most sustained engagement with the composer’s work.

Note that this does not mean that composers do not or cannot create autonomously. Composers can themselves be their own most demanding listeners, just as (for example) developers of open source software are known for scratching their own itch, i.e., developing software for themselves to use, and enhancing it to improve its fitness for their own particular needs. As with open source developers, this can lead to accusations that composers are not offering anything of interest to ordinary users (audiences), as I discuss in the next section.

Overshooting customer needs

People often speak of aesthetic movements in music or other arts as being played out or as having exhausted the possibilities, which seems to put the blame on the composers or the materials with which they’re working. On the other hand we have the cliché of the composer who complains that audiences don’t understand what I’m doing. Can we reconcile these two views?

In the context of Christensen’s theory one major problem in satisfying the most demanding customers is the danger of overshooting customer’s needs, i.e., investing in sustaining innovations that improve products along dimensions of performance that most customers no longer see as most important. In the technology-based industries originally discussed by Christensen, this occurs when the pace of technological progress is faster than the rate at which customers can absorb it. (This is illustrated in the diagram in this discussion by the contrast between the line marked sustaining innovation and the line marked performance that customers can utilize or absorb.) For example, steady improvements in integrated circuit technology have translated into regular increases in the processor speeds of the CPUs in personal computers. However except for the most demanding users (e.g., PC gamers) customers have not needed such speed improvements for their typical tasks (e.g., email and web browsing).

Is it possible to overshoot customer needs in a similar way in the artistic realm? Certainly in the case of music human physiology sets certain limits on the range of pitches we can hear, the minimum pitch differences or maximum number of notes per second we can distinguish, the softest sounds we can hear and the loudest tolerate, and so on. Evolution can change such limits over time, but only relatively slowly. Similarly, cultural evolution can result in people being more familiar with and accepting of new musical forms and techniques over time, but this does not happen overnight.

Given that musical compositions are essentially information products (e.g., like software) there would seem to be no inherent limit other than human ingenuity to the extent to which composers could produce new compositions that improve on prior compositions with respect to one or more aesthetic virtues (dimensions of performance). This is especially true if composers are working in parallel in the context of a particular school or genre, all trying to advance their compositions along the same or similar aesthetic dimensions, since they have the advantage of being able to build on and leverage each others’ compositional (sustaining) innovations.

What then accounts for the sense that the work of composers within a particular musical movement is producing diminishing returns from the point of view of audiences? If we take the diagram referenced above as an accurate model, and focus on the main aesthetic virtue or virtues exemplified in the products of a particular musical movement, earlier in time there is a relatively large gap between what audiences want and can appreciate and what composers are producing, and any progress in closing that gap is welcomed. As composers steadily advance in their ability to produce works that embody that virtue (or virtues), the difference between what audiences want and can appreciate and what composers produce goes from large to small. Beyond that point further incremental improvements in the aesthetic virtue(s) in question may be appreciated by those most engaged with composers’ works (including the composers themselves), but leave all others cold.

Creating disruptive innovations to compete against non-consumption

What happens when customers’ needs are overshot? One possibility is that vendors continue to advance their products along the same dimensions of performance as before, chasing the needs and wants of an ever-smaller group of the most demanding customers. This scenario is very much analogous to the by-now-familiar caricature of modern (or more precisely, modernist) composers. However there are two other general possibilities, corresponding to the two types of disruptive innovation discussed above.

In low-end disruption some vendors find ways to offer new products that satisfy most customers’ needs and preferences along the same or similar dimensions of performance as before, but at significantly lower cost. An example from the world of finance is the invention by Vanguard of mutual funds tied to market indices (e.g, the S&P 500). Index funds offered similar investment opportunities to traditional actively-managed mutual funds (including the ability to target particular regions or sectors) and were perceived as roughly comparable products by investors, but had expense ratios (i.e., costs to customers) that in some cases were almost an order of magnitude lower.

In the world of artistic endeavor we’ve characterized cost as not only an issue of monetary price (i.e., how much people must pay to experience a work) but also as related to the level of attention, engagement, and other effort the audience must devote to experiencing the work. In this sense the introduction of recorded music was a major low-end disruptive innovation, allowing people to experience music without the monetary cost of concert tickets and the non-monetary costs in time of getting to the concert hall. Listening to recorded music was inferior to listening to live music in several respects—sound quality, immediacy of the experience, the social aspect, and so on—but audiences were willing to overlook that in exchange for the reduced cost and increased convenience. This trade-off is characteristic of low-end disruptive innovations.

With new-market disruption some vendors find ways to offer new products that enable new uses by either existing or new customers, and that typically address customers’ needs and preferences along different dimensions of performance than before. As noted previously, mobile phone service was a disruptive innovation relative to traditional phone service, allowing existing phone customers to make calls in situations where this was previously impossible. The very first mobile phone customers cared relatively little about voice quality (traditionally among the most important dimensions of performance for telephony) and much more about new dimensions of performance: the size and weight of the handset itself, the geographic extent of the service areas, and the relative convenience of roaming between cellular networks.

I’ve already alluded to minimalist music as a disruptive innovation with respect to the modernist idiom that was prevalent in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Another interesting example of disruptive innovation in music occurred in the early 1990s in the context of the popular musical genre electronic dance music (EDM). With roots in disco and related genres, EDM (as the name implies) was created for listening in nightclubs, at raves, and in similar social contexts, and the prioritized dimensions of performance were those like simple song structure, a steady and pronounced beat, and rapid tempo that were conducive to dancing. (These were also present in many minimalist compositions, of course; in The Rest is Noise Alex Ross notes the influence of composers such as Steve Reich on EDM.)

Sustaining innovations within EDM (e.g., increasing the beats per minute) produced improvements along existing dimensions of performance relevant to social dancing, but overshot the needs of listeners who wanted to listen to electronic music at home or in other solitary contexts. Intelligent dance music or IDM, while recognizably grounded in EDM, emphasized different qualities of the music—for example, more variations in timbre and more experimental song structure—that were more important and valued in the context of home listening. IDM allowed EDM fans to listen to variants of their favorite music in the home instead of in clubs, and also attracted new listeners who were not previously going to clubs. By thus supporting new uses and users IDM was a classic new-market disruptive innovation relative to existing EDM works.

Note that new-market disruptive innovations do not compete directly against existing products in the exact same markets addressed by those products. Instead they compete against non-consumption as Christensen puts it. Translated into the world of music this means that we should not necessarily expect disruptive musical innovations to compete for and win the loyalties of existing audiences in existing contexts; instead new music would typically give rise to new audiences, or at least new contexts in which existing audiences might experience that new music.

Overlapping vs. independent value networks

Following on from the preceding point, disruptive innovations don’t just give rise to new markets. Truly successful disruptive innovations simultaneously both depend on and give rise to entirely new value networks (defined above as [a firm's] upstream suppliers; its downstream customers, retailers, and distributors; and its partners and ancillary industry players).

For example, early transistor radios were a disruptive innovation relative to traditional tube-based radios (SWN, p.157): They were both cheaper and lighter than existing radios (albeit inferior in sound to tube-based radios), and so could be adopted by new users like teenagers for new uses like listening to radio outside the house. (As Christensen notes, Even the poorest of sound qualities delighted teenagers, because for most of them, the alternative was to have no radio at all.) Tube-based radios were typically sold by specialty appliance stores that were equipped to provide the post-sale service that such appliances required. Such stores had no interest in selling cheap radios that were designed to be replaced rather than repaired in the event of a problem. However transistor radios were perfect for the newly emerging discount stores (e.g., K-Mart) since they could be sold cheaply in high volumes and required no post-sale maintenance.

If the value network for a disruptive innovation overlaps too much with the value network for existing products then the disruptive force of the new innovation may be blunted When there are overlapping suppliers, distribution networks, sales forces, or ancillary providers, firms can face severe pressure to create something that makes sense to the [incumbent] competitor’s value network and hence makes sense to the competitor. (SWN, p.63) This overlap allows incumbent vendors to either directly impede new market entrants (e.g., through particular choke points controlled by incumbents), or to compete with new entrants by co-opting particular features of the new products into their own.

In the context of music the value network associated with composers and their works includes performers (both individual and ensembles), critics and musicologists, music schools (teaching both performance skills and compositional techniques), performance venues and the organizations that control them, concert promoters, record labels, individual and institutional patrons, prize committees, and so on. Kyle Gann’s writings on the downtown and uptown music scenes offer a classic picture of one value network resisting disruptive innovations, with attempts to create a new value network in response.

Integrated vs. modular solutions

The association of successful disruptive innovations with new value networks is related to another aspect of disruptive innovation, namely the extent to which successful disruptive products are created in a vertically integrated fashion, with a monolithic (as opposed to modular) architecture. As noted previously, disruptive innovations are typically objectively inferior to existing products when judged against the prevailing criteria: they are designed to be cheaper at the expense of lower performance and/or are designed to meet an entirely different set of criteria. In order to be successful disruptive innovations must be designed to be as good as they possibly can be given the cost targets they must meet and the new contexts in which they’ll be used.

The best way for a vendor to do this is to develop, manufacture, and distribute the product in an integrated manner, controlling as many of the aspects as needed in order to achieve the desired customer experience. This point is at the core of the value chain evolution (VCE) theory, the third component of Christensen’s overall theoretical framework (after disruptive innovation theory and the resources, processes, and values (RPV) theory):

The [VCE] theory suggests companies ought to control any activity or combination of activities within the value chain that drive performance along dimensions that matter most to customers. Directly controlling, or integrating, an activity gives companies the ability to run experiments and push the frontiers of what is possible. …

Consider IBM’s early mainframe computers. IBM needed to improve the mainframe’s overall performance. It integrated the design and assembly processes for individual components and the entire computer. Complete control gave IBM the design freedom to experiment and improve mainframes to meet customer needs. A modular, nonintegrated strategy would have produced an underperforming product that customers would have rejected. (SWN, p.xix)

This integrated approach is also characteristic of newly-introduced disruptive innovations in music and other arts. For example, we see innovative composers exercising control over as many aspects of the overall musical experience as needed to achieve success for their innovations: designing new instruments or making their own idiosyncratic uses of existing instruments, creating their own ensembles, embedding their works within a larger philosophical framework, prioritizing live performances over recordings or written scores, or even building their own performance spaces.

This reach for control could simply be laid to the personality of particular artists; however it can also be thought of as a practical response to the problem of creating disruptive aesthetic innovations. Also, control need not be total—it need extend only to those aspects of the work that are most critical to improving performance along the dimensions that are most important to demanding customers (remembering again that the artist is often the most demanding customer of all).

Christensen contends that over time the need for complete integration lessens as companies learn to modularize products and outsource some aspects to others:

Modular architectures that facilitate (or permit) disintegration sacrifice raw performance in the name of speed to market, responsiveness, and convenience. This sacrifice allows companies to customize their products by upgrading individual subsystems without needing to redesign an entire product. They can mix and match components from best of breed suppliers to respond conveniently to individual customers’ needs. (SWN, p.xx)

Modular architectures are made possible by the creation of standard interfaces between components that allow specification of the desired inter-modular behavior, verification that the behavior is as designed, and predictability that the correct behavior will always occur (SWN, p.283). In the context of music modularization of the aesthetic experience has been made possible by the invention of various forms of musical notation, the invention of various tunings and their eventual replacement by the equal temperament system, the invention and standardization of new instruments and types of instruments, the classification of voice types both at the gross level (e.g., bass, baritone, tenor) and with more specificity (e.g., by Fach), and the invention and standardization of various types of ensembles (e.g., the string quartet or the symphony orchestra), among others. All of these form the context within which sustaining musical innovations can be created.

As implied by the term value chain evolution the introduction of modularization can change the nature of an industry, most notably by allowing perceived value (and the consequent economic rewards) to migrate from one part of the value chain to another. For example, in the PC industry the introduction of standard IBM-compatible hardware interfaces and the MS-DOS operating system APIs allowed the perceived value and realized profits to shift from the manufacturer of the PC itself (IBM) to the suppliers of the microprocessor (Intel) and the operating system and major applications (Microsoft).

In the field of music this tendency is accelerated by the fact that composers’ works live on past their own deaths and in the limit pass into the public domain, at which point they have no economic value in and of themselves. The focus then shifts to others in the value chain: While there is no possibility for further evolution in the works of (say) Beethoven, individual performers and ensembles can compete to produce new interpretations of Beethoven, and the most successful (according to the prevailing standards of taste and virtuosity) will be rewarded accordingly.

In the extreme case of the industrial-era symphony orchestra almost all value accrues to the conductor / music director as the systems integrator of the aesthetic experience, as almost every other component in the musical value chain becomes fungible. The focus then shifts to the ability of the conductor to elicit a high level of performance from the orchestra, create novel interpretations of individual works, and combine multiple works into an interesting program.

Asymmetric skills and motivations in competitive battles

What happens when new market entrants introduce a disruptive innovation into existing markets? Assuming that the new market entrants do not fail due simply to poor execution, there are two general possible outcomes: The new market entrants and their disruptive innovations thrive and perhaps even displace the incumbent vendors, or the disruptive innovations get co-opted by incumbent vendors.

Success and even displacement due to disruptive innovation can occur when new entrants are protected by the shield of asymmetric motivation and are able to wield the sword of asymmetric skill, as Christensen puts it (SWN, pp.43-45). Asymmetric motivation occurs when incumbent vendors view disruptive innovations as having limited market opportunities, a potential customer base that is undesirable relative to the incumbents’ current customers, and no potential for profitability given the incumbents’ current business models. Protected by the unwillingness of incumbents to exploit the disruptive innovations, new market entrants can then develop asymmetric skills, i.e., unique ways of doing things that incumbent vendors cannot match, and that can potentially be used to compete with incumbents:

… a company’s skills come largely from its processes. A process comes from repeatedly solving a particular class of problem. … Asymmetric skills arise when one firm, through repeatedly completing the same task, has developed a unique ability to do something that its competitor is uniquely unable to do. (SWN, p.44)

For example, in the late 1900s Western Union was focused on providing long-distance telegraphy for business and was not motivated to worry about telephone service, which at that time was local only and primarily for personal use. Protected by this lack of motivation, telephone companies, most notably AT&T, were able to build critical skills in network operations, billing, and so on.

Kyle Gann’s Breaking the Chain Letter: An Essay on Downtown Music offers an example of this in the aesthetic realm:

Quite often, Downtown composers are lacking in skills that a European conservatory would consider essential to a composer’s education: orchestration, counterpoint, 12-tone set manipulation. Downtowners, however, have their own sets of skills—just intonation, sound processing, South Indian rhythmic cycles—that are more intimately relevant to the music they’re trying to create.

In essence Downtown composers developed a unique set of compositional techniques and processes in the course of repeatedly attempting to solve a particular class of musical problems; these were asymmetric skills in relation to those of Uptown composers.

Downtown composers and others working in similar spaces were then able to use these asymmetric skills over time to create works that addressed dimensions of performance similar to those addressed by traditional modernist composers. For example, early minimalist music was criticized for its lack of depth (though of course in historical context this was more a virtue than a failing). However over time composers working in such idioms as postminimalism and totalism were able to build on minimalist techniques and produce works of comparable depth to traditional modernist compositions.

In the case of telephony companies such as AT&T were eventually able to leverage their asymmetric skills to move from providing local service to providing long-distance service, and eventually displaced Western Union as the dominant provider of long-distance communications for businesses. An analogous example of displacement in the aesthetic realm is the rise of hip-hop and its competition with rock to become the most popular musical genre in the US and elsewhere.

In the decades since rock and roll’s creation in the early 1950s rock artists used a standard set of compositional techniques (originally derived from the blues), instrumentation (most notably the electric guitar), ensemble structure (the classic rock band featuring lead guitar, rhythm guitar, bass, and drums), and other aesthetic innovations to become the dominant popular music genre and achieve worldwide success. As part of that process rock artists were able to move up-market to satisfy the needs of more demanding listeners, in the process almost totally displacing existing genres like jazz.

When hip-hop was invented in the 1970s hip-hop artists used a much simpler set of aesthetic resources than their rock contemporaries, at heart just a beat and spoken words. As an outgrowth of urban dance culture hip-hop initially addressed a much different market than that of rock (traditionally focused on white suburban teenagers and the adults they became). It was also evaluated along different dimensions of performance (e.g., the quality and novelty of beats and samples, cleverness in rhyming, and verbal facility and flow) and gave rise to a separate value network (e.g., new distribution mechanisms for hip-hop releases that bypassed the traditional major recording labels)—all hallmarks of a classic disruptive innovation.

Because hip-hop did not compete for the same audiences and share the same value networks as rock, traditional rock artists were not motivated to competely directly with hip-hop in its initial market. Under this shield of asymmetric motivation hip-hop artists were then able to develop asymmetric skills—for example, the ability to achieve aesthetic depth through building a dense collage of samples (as in Public Enemy’s releases).

As hip-hop evolved (most notably with the advent of gangsta rap in the 1980s) it was eventually able to take over the original (and still relevant) job of rock, namely to provide a compelling vision of rebellion and excess to white suburban teenagers. In this context hip-hop can be seen as a low-end disruptive innovation that could accomplish the same job as rock but in a simpler (in our context, lower cost) manner, both from the point of view of producers (since hip-hop could be produced by a single person working alone) and consumers (since hip-hop’s elements were stripped down and thus arguably required less engagement to produce an aesthetically satisfying effect on the listener). Thus hip-hop was able to displace rock in many of rock’s traditional markets.

However would-be disruptors are not always successful. In many cases incumbent vendors are able to fend off competitive threats by co-opting disruptive innovations, i.e., incorporating them in some manner in their existing products and business models. For example, as noted above mobile phone service was originally a disruptive innovation relative to traditional wireline telephony, enabling users to make calls in new contexts, and as such was pioneered by new market entrants (e.g., McCaw Cellular), not the incumbent service providers.

However in the end incumbent vendors were able to co-opt wireless telephony and incorporate it into their service offerings, either through acquiring existing cellular providers (as AT&T did with McCaw) or by building their own cellular networks through dedicated subsidiaries (e.g., Verizon Wireless). As Christensen and his co-authors note (SWN, p.64), this co-option was made possible in large part because of overlapping markets and value networks: Wireless providers focused on integrating their own offerings with the existing landline networks and with those of other wireless providers, so that wireless service came to be seen by consumers as simply an extension of traditional phone service. This in turn enabled incumbent telephone companies to leverage their traditional strengths in network operations and interconnection, billing, and so on, to provide wireless services as good as or better than what new entrants could provide.

Analogous attempts to co-opt disruptive innovations can occur in music and other arts. In some cases attempts at co-option are really just cramming as defined by Christensen: trying to stretch an underperforming disruptive innovation to meet the needs of demanding customers in a mainstream market (SWN, p.292). One thinks for example of many of the early lame attempts to incorporate rapping into rock music, or the more risible experiments in enlivening orchestral performances by including rock musicians. In other cases attempts at co-option can achieve some success but still not protect incumbents against displacement. For example, the attempts by Miles Davis and others to incorporate elements of rock into jazz spawned the relatively popular fusion subgenre but did not ultimately prevent rock displacing jazz in overall popularity.

In general successful co-option is more likely when incumbents are motivated to respond, when they have resources, processes, and values similar to those of new entrants, and when the respective value networks overlap. As an example, many contemporary classical composers and performers are attempting to go after new markets by introducing more informal performance practices, playing in more casual venues, organizing in smaller and more flexible ensembles, and the like—essentially trying to attract many of the same listeners who currently make up the audience for indie rock and pop.

I think this is a great idea, and I myself am a fan of several of these artists; however I’m not sure that indie classical will ultimately be successful as an independent movement. After all, rock has already successfully incorporated practices such as creating extended instrumental compositions (as in post-rock), using classical instruments and orchestration (as in chamber pop), and others traditionally associated with classical music. It’s not out of the question that rock could incorporate even more classically-derived elements.

The value networks for indie classical and indie rock also overlap significantly: they appeal to many of the same listeners, are played in some of the same venues, reviewed in some of the same publications, and so on. Many contemporary classical artists also perform or collaborate with indie rock artists. If I were a betting man I’d lay odds that the majority of what we know today as the contemporary classical (or new music) scene will not survive as an autonomous movement but rather be absorbed into the broader indie rock genre as rock (or at least certain segments of it) moves relentlessly up-market in response to competitive pressures from below.

Suggestions for further research

This concludes (finally!) my sketch of the possible connections between Clayton Christensen’s ideas and aesthetic innovation in music and other arts. When all is said and done this might simply be an example of muddled thinking and forced analogies carried out to absurd length. However if there are any useful insights at all contained within this post, it’s worth taking a moment to outline some ways in which this picture could be filled out:

  • One could do a full treatment of the jobs to be done by music and other arts. As I noted previously, I think that some of the answers here are to be found in human physiology and psychology, and other answers in sociology and economics.
  • One could also construct a reasonably comprehensive list of the dimensions of performance against which aesthetic experiences might be evaluated. This would essentially be a formalization and expansion of the ideas on aesthetic virtues and their combinations discussed by Gann, supplemented perhaps by some other dimensions of performance relevant to music’s social and economic aspects.
  • An investigation of the historical evolution of music or other arts could identify candidates for sustaining or disruptive innovations. Such an investigation would look at the exact techniques used by artists to create sustaining innovations, as well as the ways in which disruptive innovations were characterized by new dimensions of performance and new uses and users. A full treatment would also address how disruptive innovations were either co-opted by existing movements or eventually succeeded in displacing them, including the effects of the value networks associated with particular artists and artistic movements.
  • Finally, if the overall theoretical framework seems robust based on the historical evidence then it could be used to predict future developments in the arts, including identifying areas where nonconsumption presents opportunities for new disruptive innovations, and projecting whether nascent artistic movements are likely to be successful or not.

If this outline is indeed of interest to anyone then perhaps they’ll be willing and able to take it further. For myself this will be the last word, as I’ve gone much further than my very limited knowledge might justify and have exhausted anything useful I might have to say on this general subject.

Given the extent to which Michael Jackson the person was crushed beneath the weight of Michael Jackson the commercial phenomenon, it’s sadly appropriate that his death should allow Sony Music Entertainment and eMusic to conduct a natural experiment in maximizing profits through price discrimination. Jackson’s death has rekindled interest in his music, to the point where Michael Jackson albums now dominate the charts at the iTunes Store and Amazon. As far as I can tell all the Michael Jackson digital releases on the iTunes Store are being sold at full-price; the same is true for Michael Jackson releases in MP3 format at Amazon. Individual Michael Jackson tracks range from $0.99 to $1.29 on both services.

Quite coincidentally eMusic’s recent deal with Sony will shortly result in Michael Jackson’s back catalog being available on eMusic, at prices ranging from about $0.41 per track to $0.50 per track on the new eMusic plans. Since Michael Jackson died before his releases hit eMusic, Sony has a period of a few weeks during which it can sell Jackson’s releases in digital format at full price to buyers who are not price sensitive, after which more price-sensitive buyers are free to buy them through eMusic at significant discounts. For example, an eMusic buyer who doesn’t care about bonus tracks should be able to snag a copy of Thriller for $3.69-4.50 on the standard plans (9 tracks at $0.41-0.50 per track), representing a 50-63% discount relative to Amazon or the iTunes Store.

By having such a delay Sony can maximize profits by avoiding offering lower prices to buyers who are very price-insensitive and must have the albums as soon as possible after Michael Jackson’s death, while still being able to get sales from price-sensitive buyers who don’t mind waiting a bit. (See my earlier blog posts on the economics of the Sony-eMusic deal and optimizing eMusic vs. non-eMusic sales for more on price discrimination in the eMusic context.) It’s essentially the same strategy Sony is employing by holding current releases back from eMusic until two years have passed, only with a much shorter release window for the full price version.

By looking at iTunes and Amazon sales figures before and after Michael Jackson’s albums show up on eMusic, Sony should be able to get a pretty good idea of the extent to which sales through eMusic are cannibalizing sales through other digital music stores. If it turns out that offering Jackson’s releases through eMusic has little or no effect on iTunes or Amazon sales, that would be an argument for Sony reducing the two-year delay for offering other Sony releases to eMusic customers. If this indeed happens it would be an oddly providential side effect of Michael Jackson’s death.

One final thought: My comments above might seem cold and calculating, but they would not have been foreign to Michael Jackson himself, who famously counted his friendship with Paul McCartney as less important than the opportunity to acquire publishing rights to the Beatles catalog. The King of Pop understood that as far as the major labels are concerned the true value of music is simply the present value of that music’s future sales.

UPDATE: As it turns out, the Michael Jackson catalog on eMusic is being sold under the new album pricing plan, which is really just variable pricing under another name. In particular an eMusic customer would be charged 12 download credits for downloading the album Thriller despite it having only nine tracks. Thus the eMusic price for Thriller for US customers would be somewhere between $4.92 and $6.00 on the standard plans, or between a 40-51% discount off the standard Amazon or iTunes price. Still a substantial discount, but not quite as attractive—more like the Amazon 50 for $5 promotion except all the time.

In my previous post I lamented the demise of eMusic as I’ve known it, and in preparation for the future discussed my jobs to be done related to discovering and listening to music:

  1. Casual listening to familiar music at my computer.
  2. Casual listening to familiar music when I’m offline.
  3. More focused listening to a) familiar and b) less familiar music while driving.
  4. Auditioning music for inclusion in my core collection.

Here’s how my jobs to be done match up with various digital music products and services being offered today:

  • Since I listen to my core collection of music both online (job 1) and offline (job 2), downloaded MP3 files (or other download formats playable on an iPod or iPhone, such as AAC or FLAC) are the best choice for jobs 1 and 2. They also satisfy job 3a, that part of job 3 that involves listening to familiar music.
  • Either satellite radio stations or Internet radio stations (i.e., using the iPhone to connect over 3G) will work to satisfy my need for novelty in listening while driving (job 3b). (Terrestrial radio stations are useless given my taste for non-mainstream music.) For my purposes I don’t care if the stations are human-curated, or auto-generated based on either genre (like Slacker) or similarity to a particular artist (like Pandora). Note that while driving I can’t afford to distract myself by frequently fiddling with controls, so Internet radio features like song rating or skip-ahead are overkill from my point of view. (In Christensen’s terms they overshoot customer needs, at least in my case.)
  • Auditioning music for my collection (job 4) requires listening to whole tracks (not 30-second samples) and ideally being able to listen to a whole album all the way through without being interrupted by ads or having to explicitly hit the play button again. Since I normally audition music while I’m using my laptop and I’m online, job 4 can be done by an on-demand streaming subscription service like Napster or Rhapsody that is ad-free and can play whole albums with a single click. If I don’t mind occasional ads I could also use a free ad-supported service like Imeem (which also supports whole album plays).

Under my previous eMusic plan I didn’t worry too much about downloading things I might not like. With 40 tracks I could download the equivalent of three or four albums per month, and it was OK if some turned out to be clunkers. I don’t have time to listen to all that much music, and can’t readily absorb more than one or two albums per month into my core collection of things I listen to frequently.

Unfortunately eMusic’s new higher prices discourage this sort of experimentation (as many current eMusic subscribers have commented). In order to maintain a roughly comparable monthly expenditure on digital music I’d have to switch to an eMusic Basic Annual plan (at about $10.83 per month for 24 tracks) or an eMusic Lite plan ($6.49 per month for 12 tracks). With only 12 or 24 tracks per month I feel more pressure to make sure that every downloaded album is one I’ll want to listen to more than once.

In the short run I’m looking at the following possibilities, in order of increasing cost:

  • Subscribe to the eMusic Lite plan and then use Imeem or a similar ad-supported on-demand streaming service to audition candidate albums for possible downloading via eMusic. Total cost: $6.49 per month for 12 downloaded tracks, or $0.54 per track.
  • Subscribe to the eMusic Basic Annual plan ($129.99 per year for 24 tracks per month) and supplement it with Imeem as discussed above. Again I would have to listen to Imeem ads while I’m auditioning an album, and would also be locked in to my eMusic plan for a whole year. Total cost: $10.83 per month for 24 downloaded tracks, or $0.45 per track.
  • Do a combination of the eMusic Lite plan and a paid Napster subscription for on-demand streaming; for $5 extra per month this eliminates ads and gives me an additional 5 MP3 tracks a month. Total cost: $11.49 per month for 17 downloaded tracks, or $0.68 per track (averaging across the two services).
  • Do a combination of the eMusic Basic Annual plan and a paid Napster subscription. Total cost: $15.83 per month for 29 downloaded tracks, or $0.55 per track (averaging across the two services).

For any of these strategies I can add access to Internet radio stations to address job 3b, listening to new and unknown music while driving. There are a number of choices here, including the iPhone apps for Imeem, Last.fm, Pandora, Slacker, and others. Of these Slacker probably meets my needs best, since it features easy access to genre-based stations—this gives me a bit more novelty than basing a station on a particular artist. I may also continue listening to satellite radio in the car, since it’s more convenient than hooking the iPhone up to the auxiliary input port and a car charger.

(Note that at this time there does not appear to be any service offering on-demand streaming to the iPhone. I’m guessing that this is due to Apple and/or AT&T blocking such access. This is not a major problem from my point of view, but it is yet another annoying aspect of today’s music industry.)

In the end I’ll likely go with the combination of an eMusic Basic Annual plan for downloads, Imeem for on-demand streaming, and Slacker for Internet radio. This should take care of me for the near-term, assuming that Imeem, Slacker, and other music services are able to continue in business offering free services. We may also see Spotify in the US at some point, which would provide another option.

However I can’t help thinking that this is much more complicated than it needs to be. It would be great to be able to hire one service to do all of my musical jobs to be done, at a price that’s reasonable. Would such a service be possible? What would it look like? What would it cost? These are questions I’ll address in my next post.

In less than a month my grandfathered eMusic Basic 2-year plan (40 tracks per month at a cost of $7.49 per month or $0.19 per track) will end, and I’ll face a choice of what to do next. eMusic’s suggestion is that I go for a eMusic Plus Annual plan: 35 tracks per month at a cost of about $14.33 per month or $0.41 per track. However rather than simply going along with an almost doubling in cost of my music buying habit, I’ve decided to rethink how I actually discover and listen to music, and look at additional possibilities beyond eMusic (or to supplement eMusic) that might serve me better at a comparable cost to what I’ve been paying. This also leads to some thoughts on how eMusic could become a better service from my point of view or, alternatively, how a new service could replace eMusic in my affections.

For a long time now I’ve been a fan of disruptive innovation theory as pioneered and popularized by Clayton Christensen and his colleagues. One of the key concepts in Christensen’s theory is that people hire products because they have certain jobs to be done. To quote the folks at Innosight (a consulting firm co-founded by Christensen):

Using the jobs-to-be-done concept requires first understanding the problems a customer faces—whether at work or in daily life. We find it helpful to push for as much specificity as possible when describing a job. Complete a job statement that looks like the following:

[Customer] wants to [solve a problem] in [this context]

Identifying the context is particularly important. For example, trying to access the latest news while you are on an airplane is a fundamentally different problem than trying to access the latest news while sitting in front of your television or commuting to work.

Thus, for example, when it comes to music and music-related content I have at least four separate jobs to be done:

  1. Occupying my mind while I work, do spare-time writing like this, or surf the web. For this purpose I typically prefer to listen to music I already know (to avoid encountering unfamiliar songs that might break my concentration) and to listen to full albums (to prolong the time before I need to select something else). In this context I’ll typically be using my laptop and have an Internet connection.
  2. Occupying my mind while I work or read on plane or train trips. My listening patterns are the same as with job 1, but I’m typically using my iPod (or the iPod app on my iPhone) instead of my laptop, and (at least on planes) have no way to connect to the Internet.
  3. More actively listening to music while I’m in the car driving. Sometimes my listening patterns are the same as in jobs 1 and 2; other times I prefer to listen to random music chosen by others, to avoid having to distract myself by choosing what I want to listen to, and also to increase the novelty factor. (I’ll refer to these are jobs 3a and 3b respectively.) In this context I have a choice of satellite radio, my iPod (no network connection), or my iPhone (Internet connection over the AT&T 3G network).
  4. Auditioning music for jobs 1 and 2, i.e., deliberately seeking out new music and actively listening to it in order to determine whether I want to make it part of my core collection of things I listen to on a regular basis. I typically combine this type of listening (which I do on my laptop) with reading music reviews on eMusic, Amazon, or other sources, or looking for recommendations on 17 Dots or the eMusic message boards. Since I tend to listen to albums I typically audition entire albums and not individual tracks.

Note that the above simply reflect my personal uses for music, and are far from exhausting the range of possible jobs to be done involving music. For example, one might listen to music to accompany exercise, to pump oneself up for a sports event or a big presentation at work, to establish a mood for a date or other occasion, or to serve as a marker signaling ones’ membership in a social group or subculture (e.g., Williamsburg hipsters). However since I’m part of eMusic’s target audience (music lovers in the underserved 25-54 demographic) I suspect that many eMusic subscribers share at least two or three of my jobs to be done.

There are a couple of other factors to take into consideration; again I suspect I share these with many eMusic subscribers:

  • I am price-sensitive, but not extremely so. On the one hand, I’m not willing to buy music at the typical present-day price points, e.g., $0.99-1.29 per track or $9.99 for an album. On the other hand, I have little or no interest in spending extra time tracking down free downloads (whether authorized or not), buying or trading for used CDs, or waiting for periodic sales (e.g., Amazon’s Daily Deal or 50/$5 promotions).
  • I pay little or no attention to current mainstream pop, rock, or hip-hop, and am content to buy primarily from independent labels or (to a lesser extent) from major label back catalogs.

Given the above, what types of music products and services should I hire? More on that in my next post.

Most of the press coverage of the eMusic/Sony agreement has been either regurgitated press releases and echoes of the original New York Times story, or stories about the backlash from eMusic subscribers. I have a standing Google search for eMusic and see tons of this stuff. However there is actual smart analysis being done out there, and here are two examples. As seems to be typical nowadays, these are not from traditional media or business journalists but from a blogger turned pro and a musician who blogs.

The first is from Billboard columnist and Coolfer founder Glenn Peoples, who welcomes the fact that Sony is now pricing for profits, not margin. In other words, rather than trying to maximize its margin or profit per sale (i.e., by selling only at relatively high prices), Sony is now looking more seriously at maximizing its profit overall: The goal is not to maximize per-unit margin but to reach more consumers and gain incremental revenue and profits.

How will Sony do this? By practicing price discrimination to identify and sell to more price-sensitive buyers:

A person who doesn’t want to pay more at iTunes may be willing to shop elsewhere to save money. How does Sony find this group? It licenses its music to a store known for offering downloads at relatively low costs to high-volume buyers. … Per-unit revenue may be lower but total revenue and profits should increase.

If Sony can profitably sell through eMusic (and presumably the new $0.40 per track floor price is designed to allow them to do that), and if selling through eMusic doesn’t cannibalize sales through higher-priced outlets (which the 2-year delay in releasing to eMusic is designed to address) then any incremental sales through eMusic are pure gravy as far as Sony is concerned. Those sales are money that Sony would not otherwise have seen—either the buyers would have downloaded unauthorized copies via P2P or they wouldn’t have bothered to get the releases at all.

(I’ll once again plug the book Information Rules, which addresses the problem of pricing information goods like digital music in a quite readable and accessible manner. You can get a flavor of the book by reading the paper Pricing Information Goods by Hal Varian, one of its co-authors—who not so coincidentally is now Google’s chief economist.)

The second example is from David Harrell of The Layaways and Digital Audio Insider, who contends that even with higher prices eMusic’s per-track payout may not change:

… it seems likely that the presence of more name brand artists and albums in eMusic will result in less digital breakage by subscribers. So while subscribers will have fewer downloads available, they’ll be more likely to use all of them, which may be enough to offset the effect of the price increase on the final per-track payout to labels.

Without significant digital breakage, the per-download payout is bound to be less than 30 cents a track, even under the new pricing model. No doubt some breakage will continue to occur, but it seems likely that the current breakage rate will decrease significantly. Hence, it seems likely that the new subscription plans are more likely to preserve the recent payout amounts I’ve seen, as opposed to substantially increasing them.

(Digital breakage is the term—apparently coined by Harrell himself—for the money eMusic and labels realize from eMusic subscribers not using all the downloads that they paid for, analogous to the similar phenomenon with gift cards. The music industry term breakage dates back to the days of fragile 78 RPM records, when labels would pay royalties on only, e.g., 90% of records manufactured and shipped, on the assumption that the other 10% were broken in transit and thus never reached consumers. The practice evolved into a standard up-front cut of sales that labels took for themselves on all music sold, no matter the format, and used to reduce royalties paid to artists.)

The final outcome of all this is going to depend on the following factors, among others:

  • the growth in the number of eMusic subscribers due to adding major label content;
  • the changes in per-track payouts due to changes in subscriber behavior (both by new subscribers and existing subscribers); and
  • the changes in the relative fractions of downloads going to indie labels due to competition with major label releases.

If the per-track payout changes are a wash then from an indie label perspective this deal is a net plus only if eMusic significantly increases its subscriber base and indie labels are able to capture a reasonable portion of downloads from the new subscribers. This is obviously a bet the company strategy for eMusic, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Digital Audio Insider has the most in-depth analysis of eMusic payouts around, and will be a key place to find clues as to whether eMusic’s bet is paying off for indie labels and musicians.

As is amply clear from recent postings on the eMusic message boards and comments on 17 Dots, eMusic pretty much made a hash of its announcement of the Sony agreement, angering current subscribers not just about the accompanying price increases but also the way in which eMusic CEO Danny Stein’s 17 Dots blog post addressed—or rather, didn’t address—those increases. While I’m quite unhappy about my personal eMusic habit more than doubling in price, I can also see the economic justifications for why eMusic did what it did. I thought it would be an interesting experiment to create a fictional letter to subscribers that Danny Stein might have written in some alternative universe.

My goal was to write something that treated eMusic subscribers as the mature intelligent adults they (mostly) are, while still announcing all the service changes that eMusic made, including the more unpopular ones. Remember, this is a work of fiction. I don’t work for eMusic, do not in any way speak for eMusic, and have no formal relationship with eMusic other than as a usually-satisfied customer.

Without further ado, my imaginary missive (with footnotes from me as indicated):

Dear eMusic subscriber,

I’ve been actively involved with eMusic for several years as CEO of Dimensional Associates, the company that acquired eMusic in 2003, and as executive chairman and now CEO of eMusic itself. [1] The eMusic staff and I are proud of eMusic’s position as the internet’s corner music store, offering a deeper, more personal alternative to mass market digital music retailers, at prices that provide good value compared to other retailers’ standard pricing. Over the years we’ve worked to make eMusic better by increasing the depth and breadth of music we offer and the help we provide to make music discovery easier. Today I’m writing to tell you about the latest evolution of eMusic and how it will affect you.

Our focus from the beginning has been on music from independent labels. We are proud to offer more than five million tracks from over 60,000 record labels that span every conceivable music genre. We also strongly believe in providing music listeners digital music in industry-standard formats free of DRM and related restrictions, and our independent label partners were early leaders in selling music as high-quality MP3 files. However at the same time we believe that great music is great music wherever it comes from, and the major labels of today offer extensive catalogues of quality music from many of the most innovative labels and artists in history. We’ve therefore talked with various of the major labels over the years to try to find ways to offer that music to our subscribers in DRM-free form at a price that provides good value to our subscribers and in a manner that’s consistent with our focus on helping our customers expand their listening horizons. [2]

Today I’m pleased to announce that we’ve reached an agreement with Sony Music Entertainment to offer our U.S. subscribers access to music from the catalogues of labels like Arista, Columbia, Epic and RCA, beginning later this year. This agreement (which we’re working to extend to non-U.S. subscribers as well) will include all Sony releases more than two years old [3], and will bring to eMusic works by artists including the Strokes, Bruce Springsteen, Leonard Cohen, The Clash, and many more. We’ll continue our tradition of helping you discover great albums and tracks among this wealth of music, through recommendations, reviews, and in-depth articles from our knowledgeable staff. Our editorial director Yancey Strickler has more information on how we plan to integrate these new releases into eMusic while continuing to highlight the independent offerings that have always been the heart and soul of the eMusic experience.

Our goal in offering music from Sony (and perhaps other major labels in the future) is to make eMusic a more attractive and comprehensive service to current subscribers and new subscribers alike. We also want to attract even more independent labels, and more releases from the independent labels already on eMusic. That means finding price points for music that provide good value to our subscribers while still enabling all our label partners (both independent and major) to profitably offer their releases through eMusic under our traditional subscription-based model. [4] Based on our discussions with Sony as well as with our independent label partners, we’ve concluded that a per-track price of at least $0.40 [5] will enable our label partners to make eMusic a sustainable business proposition and us to continue to invest in improving the service we offer to you, while still providing a significant value compared to the typical prices offered by other digital music services.

We’ve therefore changed our eMusic U.S. plans to reflect this new approach, with an eMusic Basic plan now offering 24 downloads for $11.99 per month ($0.50 per song) and other standard plans offering better prices (as low as $0.41 per song) in exchange for higher monthly commitments. We’ve also changed the pricing for our non-U.S. plans to be more consistent with U.S. pricing, and in anticipation of our being able to offer more labels’ music to our subscribers outside the U.S.

When making past price changes we’ve offered at least some existing subscribers the option to continue their plans at the previous price levels. Unfortunately we can no longer continue that practice; it is not financially sustainable in the long run, and arguably is also unfair to more recent subscribers who cannot take advantage of older plans. [6] We’re therefore requiring all subscribers under such grandfathered plans to select from one of the current plans when their existing plan refreshes. We will offer you the default choice of a current plan most similar to your existing plan.

We recognize that these new plans represent a significant price increase over previous plans, especially for long-time subscribers and subscribers with Plus, Premium, and Connoisseur plans, and could make eMusic less attractive to many current subscribers. We appreciate having your business over the years, and we hope you’ll stick around to check out our new expanded offerings and the many other improvements we’ll be making in the coming months and years. For those subscribers active as of August 1 we’ll provide a free 15-track booster pack as a small token of our appreciation for continuing your subscription.

We’re also working to make eMusic a better value by addressing a long-standing issue with our track-based subscription model. We know that many of our customers are avid listeners who tend to purchase entire albums, not just individual tracks. Unfortunately purchasing an album with a very large numbers of tracks through eMusic is often more expensive than purchasing the same album from other digital music retailers. We’re moving to correct this problem by offering album pricing that will allow you to download selected albums of 12 or more tracks for the price of 12 downloads. [7] In cooperation with our label partners we will work to extend this album pricing to more and more releases over time, so that eMusic subscribers don’t have to hesitate before deciding to download a complete album.

This is a major event in the history of eMusic, and we understand that many of you are concerned that the eMusic you know and love will be no more. The eMusic staff and I are committed to ensuring that eMusic remains the best place on the Internet for discerning listeners to discover and purchase new music at value prices. We appreciate your past business, and hope you’ll continue to be part of the eMusic community.

Yours truly,

Danny Stein [8]

1. Danny Stein became CEO after the resignation of David Pakman, who had been CEO since the Dimensional Associates acquisition.

2. In several interviews over the years David Pakman spoke of his desire to have eMusic offer back-catalog material from major labels in addition to independent label releases. Apparently at least one such deal was approved by middle management at a major label, only to be killed by senior management.

3. As noted above, eMusic’s focus was always on obtaining rights to sell older major label releases. I’ve never seen any indication that eMusic wanted to go head-to-head with the iTunes Store and Amazon in selling new major label releases. Also note that many independent labels have held new releases back from eMusic in an attempt to maximize revenue from other higher-priced outlets, in an attempt at price discrimination.

4. Recall that under eMusic’s business model payments to labels are sensitive to both the nominal per-track prices (i.e., as defined in the plans) and the fraction of downloads that are paid for but never used (what David Harrell of The Layaways refers to as digital breakage). The more downloads go unused, the higher the per-track payout. (Again, David Harrell has a thorough discussion of how this works in practice; see also eMusic’s own explanation to labels.) Labels typically have to pay a fixed amount of royalties to artists and songwriters for each track, so per-track payouts that are too low mean that labels cannot profitably sell through eMusic. Thus per-track pricing has in the past been a point of contention between eMusic and various independent labels.

5. As can be seen from my overview of the new US pricing, no published eMusic plan offers a nominal per-track prices of less than $0.40. (Some existing subscribers have been offered a non-published plan that works out to about $0.39 per track.) I therefore conclude that having a hard floor at $0.40 per track was a key element of eMusic’s agreement with Sony; in practice the actual average per-track price will be higher, due to both digital breakage and the fact that most eMusic subscribers will be on plans that are more expensive on a per-track basis.

6. The discontinuation of the grandfathered plans is arguably the most controversial part of the changed pricing, both because long-time subscribers with such plans are disproportionately represented among eMusic message board posts, and also because eMusic is viewed as having made a firm commitment to continue grandfathered plans as long as the customers in question continued as subscribers. The argument that offering grandfathered plans is unfair to new subscribers is somewhat weak, but it’s the best I could do on short notice.

7. Assuming a floor price of $0.40 per track, under album pricing a complete album would cost about $4.80. Amazon offers a few albums for less than this as part of its special Daily Deal program, but this would be an everyday low price for eMusic, at least for those albums selected for album pricing. I think album pricing could be a significant improvement to eMusic, but unfortunately eMusic did a poor job of communicating where this might apply and what eMusic will be doing to expand the number of albums offered this way.

8. One more time: Danny Stein didn’t really write this letter, I did.

New eMusic US pricing

June 2, 2009

Well, I significantly underestimated how far eMusic was willing to go in terms of changing its pricing to attract major label content. My personal guess was that Sony demanded a minimum price of at least $0.30 per track, but based on the new US pricing it appears that the new floor is actually $0.40 per track.

More specifically, the plan changes are as follows:

  • The eMusic Basic plan is still $11.99 per month, but has been reduced to 24 downloads ($0.50 per song) from the previous 30 downloads ($0.40 per song), or a 25% per-track price increase.
  • The eMusic Plus plan is now 35 downloads for $15.89 per month ($0.45 per song) vs. $14.99 per month for 50 downloads ($0.30 per song) under the previous plan, or a 50% per-track price increase.
  • The eMusic Premium plan is now 50 downloads for $20.79 per month ($0.42 per song) vs. $19.99 per month for 75 downloads ($0.27 per song) under the previous plan, or a 56% per-track price increase.
  • The eMusic Connoisseur plan is now 75 downloads for $30.99 per month ($0.41 per song) or 100 downloads for $40.99 per month (also $0.41 per song) vs. 100 downloads for $24.99 per month ($0.25 per song) under the previous plan, or a 65% per-track price increase. Also, the new Connoisseur plans are available only as upgrades from another plan, and require a minimum 3-month commitment; previously the Connoisseur 100 plan was offered as an option at sign-up time, with no minimum commitment required.
  • People with annual and 2-year plans will be moved to higher-priced plans when their old plans refresh. In my case the default choice offered is to move from my (grandfathered) Basic 2-year plan offering 40 downloads a month for $89.91 per year ($0.19 per song) to a standard Premium Annual plan offering 35 downloads a month for $171.99 per year ($0.41 per song), or a 119% per-track price increase.
  • When downloading at least some complete albums with more than 12 tracks, only the first 12 downloads will be counted against the subscriber’s monthly quota.
  • Booster pack downloads now range from $0.60 per track (when bought in packs of 5 or 10) to $0.50 per track for a pack of 50. I don’t have a complete record of the old pricing, but as far as I’m aware this is not a major change from previously.
  • eMusic is offering a free one-time 15-track booster pack to subscribers who stay with eMusic past July.

I’ll have more to say about the overall changes at eMusic in future posts, but for now I wanted to note a few additional points regarding the new pricing:

  • Presuming it came from eMusic directly and was not a misquote, the comment in the New York Times article that eMusic says it will slightly raise prices and reduce the number of downloads for some of its monthly plans was extremely disingenuous, to say the least. As far as I can tell all US plans have had the number of downloads reduced, and per-track price increases of 50% (for eMusic Plus), 56% (for eMusic Premium), and 65% (for eMusic Connoisseur) are hardly slight.
  • As noted above, it appears that $0.40 per track is the new floor for eMusic US prices. I cannot find any published option offering a per-track price less than $0.4095 (available through the eMusic Plus Annual plan). There does not appear to be an annual option for the Premium or Connoisseur plans, and 2-year plans appeared to have been eliminated altogether.
  • Subscribers get just less than a 10% discount for choosing an annual plan vs. 12 months of a monthly plan. (The eMusic Basic Annual plan is $129.99 or $10.83 per month vs. $11.99 for the corresponding monthly plan, while the eMusic Plus Annual plan is $171.99 or $14.33 per month vs. $15.89 for the corresponding monthly plan.)
  • By eliminating the Connoisseur plan as an option at sign-up and offering only three options (Basic, Plus, and Premium), eMusic has reverted to a more straightforward Goldilocks pricing strategy, with the eMusic Plus plan presumably the one eMusic would like most subscribers to choose.
  • eMusic has mitigated the price increases slightly by offering subscribers the ability to download selected albums with more than 12 tracks and be charged only 12 downloads. However it remains to be seen how many albums will actually be priced in this manner. (I suspect that this may depend on individual labels and whether they choose to do this for all or some of their releases through eMusic.)

All in all this is the biggest change in eMusic pricing for quite some time, and judging by the reaction of the subscribers who frequent the eMusic message board, probably the most controversial change since eMusic was originally acquired by Dimensional Associates and discontinued its all you can eat unlimited download model.

Danny Stein, eMusic’s new CEO, dropped some major news just now on eMusic’s semi-official 17 Dots blog. As reported in more detail in the New York Times, Sony Music Entertainment (home of Arista, Epic, Columbia, and RCA, among others) has decided to release its back-catalog material (anything over 2 years old) to eMusic—basically what eMusic management has apparently been urging them and other major labels to do for ages. (For example, David Pakman addressed this in several of his interviews.)

The major trade-off (no pun intended) seems to be that eMusic has agreed to slightly raise prices and reduce the number of downloads for some of its monthly plans, in effect imposing a per-track price that is higher than its current prices, which range from $0.40 per track for the eMusic Basic plan (30 downloads for $11.99 per month) to $0.25 per month for the eMusic Connoisseur plan (100 downloads for $24.99 per month). What we don’t know yet is exactly which plans will be affected, and what the price increases will be. My personal guess is that the eMusic Basic plan will remain the same, but that the other plans will be revised to bring the lowest per-track price up to $0.30 or even higher.

So much for the bad news. On the positive side, this deal will give eMusic subscribers better access to the important works of past musical eras, will make eMusic more attractive to potential subscribers, and if successful may persuade other major labels to do likewise. This in turn makes it more likely that eMusic will survive and even thrive as a (relatively) low-price outlet for customers looking beyond the latest hits.

In his blog post Danny Stein raised a point about how this might change how customers might perceive and experience eMusic:

We’ve been requested to carry major label titles for years, but we always have gone back and forth on whether it would change the fabric of eMusic. We don’t think it makes sense to exclude great artists simply because their label partner is one of four specific companies. We look to some of our favorite music—The Sex Pistols, The Clash—and we certainly never think to ourselves Major Label. What do you think? Do major and indie mean anything to you or is this just industry jargon?

In the past the record labels now aggregated under the term major were in fact where the most important innovations in popular music were happening (as Bob Lefsetz never tires of reminding us). I think that including older releases from some of those labels in the overall eMusic offering is perfectly consistent with eMusic’s current positioning of itself as the internet’s corner music store, especially if eMusic is going to pull out all the stops on providing context and recommendation. (Which I expect will happen—to the extent that this is an experiment, eMusic has every motivation to make it successful.)

I think the major downside other than the price increases is that people will be very mistrustful of having a repeat of the Rolling Stones fiasco. That apparently wasn’t eMusic’s fault, but if Bruce Stringsteen or whoever decides that they don’t like their music being cheapened by being sold at eMusic prices and is successful in getting it pulled, or if Sony upper management gets cold feet and decides to kill the entire deal, that’s going to leave a pretty sour taste in the mouths of eMusic subscribers, especially given that the new higher prices will likely remain in effect.

Bob Lefsetz recently published another broadside in his continuing crusade to drag the music industry into the 21st century. In this one he asked the following question:

How long until there’s enough unfettered new music, tunes the creators control as opposed to the fat cats, that someone from the outside can roll up these rights and create a viable alternative to the established game?

This I think is the key question, since I agree with Lefsetz that industry incumbents are extremely unlikely to innovate, and long copyright terms, existing contracts and statutory licensing arrangements, and political battles over compensation (e.g., regarding performance royalties for terrestrial radio) will slow down if not halt altogether any major revamp of business arrangements for existing works. In particular I doubt we’ll soon see Lefsetz’s preferred all you can eat for one monthly price scheme for legalizing P2P downloads of major label content—a skepticism shared by others.

Thus the only remaining possibility is as Lefsetz outlines: Wait until there is a critical mass of commercially viable new works controlled by artists and corporations willing to play by new business rules. My guess is that we’re talking about a 5-15 year timeframe for this to happen, because this will likely require a combination of the following:

  • The emergence of lots of popular new artists who have grown up in the new world of digital distribution, social networking, etc., and are prepared to exploit it to the hilt. If you believe in the 10,000 hour rule popularized by Malcom Gladwell and its application to popular musical artists, this could well take 5-10 years (assuming that we’re starting basically from zero). However note that the rule does not necessarily apply to talented people helping to create new genres, which leads to our next factor.
  • Generational, demographic, and geographic shifts that help foster new commercially successful musical genres, with an accompanying new group of key managers, promoters, and (to the extent they still exist) labels associated with those genres. Again, if we’re starting from scratch (i.e., these new genres don’t yet exist, except perhaps in embryonic form) this could take a fair amount of time. Compare the 10-15 years from the emergence of rock and roll in the early 50s to the mass success of the Beatles and other British invasion bands in the mid-60s, or the 10-15 years between the early days of hip-hop in the late 70s and the mass commercial success of rap in the 90s.
  • Maturation of the business and technological environment around digital music distribution. The Internet took 25 years from its invention to when it became a major phenomenon (early 70s to late 90s). At this point we are only 10 years past Napster, and are still some ways away from a fully-changed music industry. After a couple more generations of iPhones and similar devices, plus accompanying advances in wireless networks, the music player of choice will be a smartphone with sufficient storage to hold all but the most fanatic listener’s music library and always-on high-speed network connectivity suitable for paid downloads, jukebox in the sky-style streaming, and/or P2P networking. The current generation of rights holders will of course try to restrict how users access music, as will wireless operators (trying to assume the role of radio as a chokepoint), so as in the past changes in technology will outpace changes in the business environment. Music and wireless industry incumbents will ultimately be foiled by the emergence of a new generation of music industry players and increased competition in the wireless market respectively, but again this might take as long as 10 years or more.
  • So, my prediction: Lefsetz will possibly see his hoped-for revolution within the next ten years, but definitely not within the next five. We’ll see if I’m right.

In the latest of his Lefsetz Letters (not yet online) Bob Lefsetz touches on the strategy behind Radiohead’s pay what you want album release:

How do acts establish a direct connection with their fanbase? How do they entice listeners to join their e-mail list, with authentic e-mail addresses? That’s the number one lesson of Radiohead’s In Rainbows. Give away something desirable and you get the right to make contact with your fans thereafter. At MIDEM the co-manager of Radiohead said the In Rainbows release allowed the band to collect 3 million e-mail addresses, and ultimately play to 60,000 in San Francisco as opposed to 25,000 the previous time through. And isn’t live where it’s at?

Well, folks, I feel vindicated. As I previously wrote,

I think people are missing a crucial point about Radiohead’s name your own price strategy. It is not all about giving listeners what they want, namely DRM-free music that’s free (or nearly so); it is also about giving Radiohead something it apparently wants (and that it could not get working through a major label): deep information about its listener population beyond the hard-core fans (i.e., those who’ve already joined the Radiohead fan club), including in particular information about which listeners are good candidates for up-selling strategies aimed to move more Radiohead merchandise, tickets, and other Radiohead-related products and services.

This was at a time when Lefsetz (among others) was deriding Radiohead’s actions as playing for tips, a notion I thought was particularly wrong-headed. I don’t claim to be any great expert on the music business, but I think I called this one exactly right.

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