In part 3 of this series Columbia’s new-found political power was tested in a referendum in 1976 on a proposal to expand the Howard County Council from five to seven members and elect all members by districts instead of at large. The referendum failed, but a Maryland constitutional amendment left the door open to further attempts. On with our story: 1977. After electing a Columbia-dominated county council and beating back an attempt to move to council districts, Columbians celebrate the tenth birthday of the new town. Columbia’s population exceeds 45,000 (more than the entire population of Howard County in 1960), and is well-educated and affluent (averaging over $25,000 per year in family income, almost double the national median household income).1 ...

At the end of part 2 of this series Columbia Democrats had finally achieved political power within Howard County: The 1974 general election produced a 5–0 Democratic majority on the County Council, including four Columbians, and a county executive sympathetic to Columbia’s concerns. However again the rest of the county sought various ways to curb the power of Columbia, including in particular a proposal to elect council members by districts. Let’s go to the tape: ...

In part 1 of this series I discussed the formation of the Howard County Council as part of an bipartisan effort to modernize Howard County government at the time Columbia was founded, with five at-large council members elected in 1969. In part 2 we see the beginnings of a political backlash against Columbia on the part of rural Howard County voters, a backlash that however proves unable to stop the growing political power of Columbia. (Yes, we still haven’t talked about county council districts, let alone redistricting, but trust me, this is background you need to know.) ...

In doing research for my series on the history of Howard County Council redistricting one thing that became apparent was the major impact that the founding of Columbia had on the population growth of Howard County. That prompted me to put together a spreadsheet of Howard County population from 1950 through 2009 from US census data. The data is also available as a text file suitable for use with the R statistical package.1 ...

Now that the 2010 Maryland general election is over, the thoughts of Howard County political activists are turning to the 2014 county elections. Adding an extra twist to the conversation is the upcoming task (occasioned by the 2010 census) of redrawing district lines for national, state, and county legislative districts. I have a particular interest in redistricting as it relates to the Howard County Council, and have been doing some research into past council redistricting efforts in an effort to understand how we came to the present point. ...

In part 3 of this series we constructed a linear model in R to estimate the proportion of voters in the 2010 Howard County general election who are unaffiliated or members of other parties. (See also part 1 and part 2.) For our second prediction we’ll estimate the percentage of those voting who are Democrats. We’ll again make use of the lm() function, but this time we can make use of the fact that the result of lm() can be stored in a variable (which in this case we arbitrarily name lmd): ...

In part 1 of this series I discussed downloading and installing the R statistical package and loading it with Howard County election data, and then in part 2 we began to explore how to use that data to estimate the percentages of voters in the 2010 general election who are Democrats, Republicans, or unaffiliated or members of other parties. In our initial explorations we discovered that the percentage of those voting who were Republicans seemed to be relatively static over the years. ...

In a previous post I promised to explore how we can use the statistics package R to produce estimates for the relative proportions of Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated and other voters within the total population voting in the 2010 general election. However I spent all of last post on the preliminaries: how to download and install R, and how to load into R turnout data from past Howard County gubernatorial primary and general elections. In this post we can start doing some real work. ...

HoCo Rising recently commented on supposed high Republican turnout in the Maryland House of Delegates race in District 9A, and wondered whether Bob Flanagan would have beaten Courtney Watson if Republicans had seen similar turnout in Howard County Council District 1. Well, as commenter Ralph Norton was quick to point out, most of Council District 1 is actually in District 9A: Out of the 22 precincts in Council District 1, only 6 are not in 9A, and overall more than three quarters of the registered voters in Council District 1 vote in District 9A (28,335 registered voters out of 37,008 total registered voters in Council District 1 at the time of the general election). ...

There’s this meme going around that Howard County Republicans fared badly because Howard County has so many government workers, and they all vote for Democrats because they have an interest in growing the size of government. For example, from an Columbia Flier story quoting Joan Becker of the Howard County Republican Party: The Republican message of smaller government didn’t play well in Maryland, the home of hundreds of government agencies and contractors, Becker said. ...