In doing research for my series on the history of Howard County Council redistricting one thing that became apparent was the major impact that the founding of Columbia had on the population growth of Howard County. That prompted me to put together a spreadsheet of Howard County population from 1950 through 2009 from US census data. The data is also available as a text file suitable for use with the R statistical package.1 ...
In part 3 of this series we constructed a linear model in R to estimate the proportion of voters in the 2010 Howard County general election who are unaffiliated or members of other parties. (See also part 1 and part 2.) For our second prediction we’ll estimate the percentage of those voting who are Democrats. We’ll again make use of the lm() function, but this time we can make use of the fact that the result of lm() can be stored in a variable (which in this case we arbitrarily name lmd): ...
In part 1 of this series I discussed downloading and installing the R statistical package and loading it with Howard County election data, and then in part 2 we began to explore how to use that data to estimate the percentages of voters in the 2010 general election who are Democrats, Republicans, or unaffiliated or members of other parties. In our initial explorations we discovered that the percentage of those voting who were Republicans seemed to be relatively static over the years. ...
In a previous post I promised to explore how we can use the statistics package R to produce estimates for the relative proportions of Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated and other voters within the total population voting in the 2010 general election. However I spent all of last post on the preliminaries: how to download and install R, and how to load into R turnout data from past Howard County gubernatorial primary and general elections. In this post we can start doing some real work. ...
HoCo Rising recently commented on supposed high Republican turnout in the Maryland House of Delegates race in District 9A, and wondered whether Bob Flanagan would have beaten Courtney Watson if Republicans had seen similar turnout in Howard County Council District 1. Well, as commenter Ralph Norton was quick to point out, most of Council District 1 is actually in District 9A: Out of the 22 precincts in Council District 1, only 6 are not in 9A, and overall more than three quarters of the registered voters in Council District 1 vote in District 9A (28,335 registered voters out of 37,008 total registered voters in Council District 1 at the time of the general election). ...
There’s this meme going around that Howard County Republicans fared badly because Howard County has so many government workers, and they all vote for Democrats because they have an interest in growing the size of government. For example, from an Columbia Flier story quoting Joan Becker of the Howard County Republican Party: The Republican message of smaller government didn’t play well in Maryland, the home of hundreds of government agencies and contractors, Becker said. ...
The Maryland and Howard County general elections are now over, and we (mostly) know who won. However there’s still one major question I’m waiting on the answer to, namely, what were the relatively proportions of Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated and other voters within the total population voting in the general election? If you recall, I previously predicted that Democrats would be 46-47% of those voting in Howard County, Republicans 36%, and unaffiliated and other voters 16-17%. I made a similar prediction for Maryland statewide (54% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 13% unaffiliated and other). I’m curious to see how close I came to the actual numbers. ...
As I’ve written before, I don’t plan to urge people to vote for or against particular candidates, and I don’t plan to publicize who I vote for or against. So why I am doing a post about Ed Priola, given that he’s not of my party (I’m a registered Democrat) and I don’t live in his district? Put simply, because a number of people in the Howard County blogosphere whom I like and respect have mentioned Priola in favorable terms and in some cases formally endorsed him, because he has some proposals I found interesting and wanted to comment on, and because I thought it would be fun to write about someone elsewhere on the political spectrum. ...
In the course of commenting on voter turnout today, HoCo Rising complained about use of the term “unaffiliated” to describe voters who don’t register as Republicans or Democrats: Do you get the feeling that Boards of Election went out of their way to give a more passive word like “unaffiliated” as opposed to the affirmative stance of “independent”? Reminds me of an Orwell essay. I’ll mildly disagree with HCR on this point. I don’t think “unaffiliated” is that bad an example of bureaucratic language, and it’s certainly not an Orwellian euphemism on the scale of, say, referring to “taxes” as “revenue enhancers.” It has the advantage of being precise, and of not claiming more than the evidence warrants: These are simply voters who have chosen not to be affiliated with a political party, no more, no less. ...
HoCo Rising recently highlighted a Baltimore Sun poll showing Martin O’Malley 14 points ahead of Robert Ehrlich in the Maryland gubernatorial race (52% vs. 38%), and (among other things) pointed to a post at Red Maryland questioning the assumptions of the poll: What were the demographics of the poll? . . . The story says that turnout patterns were “averaged over the last four Maryland general elections.” Well, which general elections? The last four in total (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008) or the last four statewide off-year elections? (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006)? . . . And what defines a “higher-than-average Republican turnout this year?” What were the determining factors in determining that “estimated” higher Republican turnout, and did the pollster take into account the lower Democratic and higher Republican primary turnouts last month? ...