<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="yes"?>
<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/">
  <channel>
    <title>Howardcounty on frankhecker.com</title>
    <link>https://frankhecker.com/tags/howardcounty/</link>
    <description>Recent content in Howardcounty on frankhecker.com</description>
    <image>
      <title>frankhecker.com</title>
      <url>https://frankhecker.com/%3Clink%20or%20path%20of%20image%20for%20opengraph,%20twitter-cards%3E</url>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/%3Clink%20or%20path%20of%20image%20for%20opengraph,%20twitter-cards%3E</link>
    </image>
    <generator>Hugo</generator>
    <language>en</language>
    <lastBuildDate>Sat, 28 Jan 2023 09:45:00 -0500</lastBuildDate>
    <atom:link href="https://frankhecker.com/tags/howardcounty/index.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
    <item>
      <title>A better way to elect the Howard County Board of Education</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2023/01/28/a-better-way-to-elect-the-howard-county-board-of-education/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 28 Jan 2023 09:45:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2023/01/28/a-better-way-to-elect-the-howard-county-board-of-education/</guid>
      <description>Howard County parents and other voters deserve a way to vote for the Board of Education that truly reflects their preferences.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/ho-co-16-23-rcv.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ho-co-16-23-rcv-embed.png"
         alt="Ho. Co. 16-23"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The beginning of Ho.Co. 16-23, legislation proposed by Delegates Chao Wu and Jen Terrasa to authorize the use of ranked choice voting in Howard County Board of Education elections.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Howard County parents and other voters shouldn’t have the ability to elect Board of Education members taken away from them. Instead they deserve a way to vote for the Board of Education that truly reflects their preferences, namely ranked choice voting.</em></p>
<h2 id="how-we-got-here-board-of-education-edition">How we got here, Board of Education edition</h2>
<p>Prior to 2020 the Howard County Board of Education was elected at large, with three members elected during presidential election years and four members during gubernatorial election years. The primary election was used as a way to winnow down the number of candidates to be voted on in the general election.</p>
<p>2018 was the last election in which the traditional method was used: there were thirteen Board of Education candidates in the primary, of whom voters could vote for four. The top eight candidates advanced to the general election, at which again voters could vote for four. The top four were elected to the board.</p>
<p>For the 2020 election year the system was changed to have five members of the Board of Education to be elected by district (using the Howard County Council districts) and two members elected at-large in alternate election years.</p>
<p>In the 2020 primary election voters could vote for one candidate in their district. The top two candidates in each district advanced to the general election, at which voters again voted for one candidate. The top candidate in each district was elected to the board.</p>
<p>The at-large members were elected in the 2022 election year. In the 2022 primary election voters could vote for up to two at-large candidates in their district. The top four at-large candidates advanced to the general election, at which voters again voted for up to two candidates. The top two candidates were elected to the board.</p>
<h2 id="a-threat-to-stop-voters-from-electing-two-board-members">A threat to stop voters from electing two board members</h2>
<p>Now a new proposal is on the table: to take away the ability of Howard County voters to elect two of the seven Board of Education members they previously elected, and have those members appointed by the Howard County Executive from a list drawn up by the Howard County legislative delegation.</p>
<p>Of the remaining five board members that Howard County voters would still be permitted to elect themselves, two of them would be elected at-large in the same manner as today, and the remaining three would be elected from the Howard County portions of the state senate districts wholly or partly contained within Howard County (currently Districts 9, 12, and 13).</p>
<p>I’m not going to speculate on the possible motives of those proposing this new schemes, what problem they think they are trying to solve, or what they hope to accomplish by taking away the ability of Howard County voters to elect these two board members.</p>
<p>However I do want to point out two potential issues with the proposal:</p>
<p>First, as noted above, the two appointed members would have to be selected from a list prepared by the Howard County legislative delegation. But Howard County shares several of its legislative districts with other counties, including Senate Districts 9 (shared with Carroll County) and 12 (shared with Baltimore County), and House of Delegates District 9A (shared with Montgomery County).</p>
<p>Given that, it’s possible that four of the members of the “Howard County” delegation may not even live in Howard County. What business would they have picking candidates for the Howard County Board of Education?</p>
<p>Second, also as noted above, the three districts with elected Board of Education members would be based on the one Senate district wholly within Howard County (currently District 13) and the Howard County portions of the two Senate districts partially within the county (currently Districts 9 and 12).</p>
<p>But here’s the problem: there’s no guarantee that the Howard County portions of the second and third districts will be equal in population to the first district. It’s quite possible that the second and third districts may have only a few thousand&mdash;or even only a few hundred&mdash;voters in Howard County, yet those voters would have as much influence over the Board of Education as the tens of thousands of voters elsewhere in the county.</p>
<p>(This problem doesn’t exist with the current Board of Education districts because the councilmanic districts are constrained by the county charter to be approximately equal in population.)</p>
<p>The bottom line: besides taking away the ability of Howard County parents and other voters to select two of the Board of Education members, this proposal is complicated and fraught with potential problems that would further reduce the ability of Howard County voters to influence the composition of the board.</p>
<h2 id="ranked-choice-voting-a-better-alternative">Ranked choice voting: a better alternative</h2>
<p>Enough of that. Here I present a better proposal, introduced by Chao Wu and Jen Terrasa, that</p>
<ul>
<li>preserves the ability of Howard County voters to elect all members of the Board of Education (except for the student member, of course);</li>
<li>does a better job of reflecting voters’ true preferences;</li>
<li>can potentially eliminate the need to have Board of Education primary elections, and thus ensure that the maximum number of voters participates in electing the board; and</li>
<li>is less prone to some of the problems some people might have had with both the traditional method of electing the Board of Education and the method used in 2020, as well as other methods.</li>
</ul>
<p>That proposal involves so-called “ranked choice voting,” a scheme that allows voters to rank candidates in order of their preference, and that allows their votes to be transferred to another preferred candidate in the event that their most preferred candidate is not elected. Ranked choice voting is being increasingly adopted by jurisdictions around the US and has been popular with voters in elections where it has been used.</p>
<h3 id="advantages-of-ranked-choice-voting">Advantages of ranked choice voting</h3>
<p>To expand on what I wrote above, ranked choice voting has the following advantages over current ways of electing either a single Board of Education member (i.e., per district) or at-large board members:</p>
<p><em>Elimination of primary elections.</em> As discussed in more detail in the next section, a ranked choice election can eliminate the need to have primary elections, since there is no need to winnow down the number of candidates for the general election.</p>
<p>Instead all candidates would run in the general election, and voters could indicate their preferences between them. If a voter’s favorite candidate were not elected then the voter’s indicated preferences could help elect another candidate they also favor. The ranked choice method of counting votes works the same whether there’s one seat to be decided (i.e., for a district) or more than one (i.e., for an at-large seat).</p>
<p>Eliminating primaries is especially important for Board of Education races, because the board is supposed to be a nonpartisan body open to anyone interested in improving the school system, not a body made up of professional politicians primarily interested in pursuing their party’s agenda. Having no primary election means that running for the board should be less expensive and thus open to more potential candidates, and holding the election at general election time means that the voter base will include voters beyond just party activists and partisans.</p>
<p><em>Reducing “wasted” votes.</em> When there are multiple candidates in a race, voters will often not vote for their favored candidates because their chances of winning are uncertain. Ranked choice voting allows voters to give a first preference vote to their favored candidates and second, third, etc., preferences to other candidates. That way, even if their favored candidate loses, their votes can still help elect other candidates that they like.</p>
<p><em>Preventing a slim majority of voters from dominating other voters.</em> In the tradition Board of Education elections, or in the current election of at-large members, it is possible for a slim majority of voters to elect all their favored candidates: they simply vote as a bloc for their candidates, so that all those candidates have the most number of votes and are thus elected. This leaves other voters without representation of their views. (Incidentally, this is exactly why traditional at-large elections have been outlawed in many jurisdictions, because they were used as a way to enable a white majority to disenfranchise Black voters.)</p>
<p>This bloc voting strategy doesn’t work in a ranked choice election because of the way the ranked choice mechanism works, giving voters representation in rough propertion to the size of their voting bloc. For example, in an election to pick two at-large board members, a 51% majority could elect one at-large member, but would be very unlikely to succeed in electing two. That’s because there would be enough people in the 49% minority giving their preferences for other candidates that one of those candidates would very likely be elected once all voter preferences were accounted for.</p>
<p><em>Making it more likely that winning candidates will have broad appeal among voters.</em> The key to winning as a candidate in a ranked choice election is not just to have your core group give you their first preference votes. In an election with three, four, five, or more candidates, it’s unlikely that those votes alone will be enough to put you over the line.  Winning thus also requires persuading voters outside your base to mark you as their second or even third preference.</p>
<p>Ranked choice elections work against extreme candidates because they typically won’t get second or third preferences from outside their base. (To use the jargon term, they aren’t “transfer-friendly.”)</p>
<h3 id="electing-district-and-at-large-board-members-using-ranked-choice-voting">Electing district and at-large board members using ranked choice voting</h3>
<p>There are multiple ways that ranked choice voting might be used to elect Board of Education members. Here I present two possible schemes, one a variant of the method currently used, and one a variant on the traditional way of electing Board of Education members.</p>
<p>In the first scheme we would continue the current practice of electing five Board of Education members by district (using the five Howard County councilmanic districts) and electing two board members at large, but using ranked choice voting in both types of election.</p>
<p>In the 2020 election the maximum number of Board of Education candidates running in the primary election was six (in District 4); other districts had only four candidates (District 5), three (Districts 2 and 3), or two candidates (District 1, where no primary was needed).</p>
<p>As discussed above, with ranked choice voting we could skip the primary election and have all Board of Education district candidates run in the general election. Voters would rank candidates in order of their preference, and then the ranked choice vote counting scheme would go as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>If any candidate received more than 50% of the first preference votes then they would automatically be elected.</li>
<li>If no candidate received more than 50% of the first preference vote, then the candidate with the least number of first preference votes would be eliminated, and their votes transferred to other candidates according to the preferences of the voters who gave the eliminated candidate their first preference.</li>
<li>The process of eliminating candidates and transferring their votes would continue until one candidates accumulated enough votes to go over the 50% mark.</li>
</ol>
<p>Note that when electing a single candidate, ranked choice voting is often referred to as instant-runoff voting: because voters would have already expressed their preferences for their second, third, etc., choices, there would be no need to hold a separate runoff election if one candidate didn’t receive more than 50% of the votes in the first round.</p>
<p>In 2022 eight Board of Education candidates ran in the primary for the two at-large seats. Again, we could dispense with the primary election and just have all candidates run in the general election, with two board members elected using ranked choice voting. The process would be similar to that described above, except that the “quota” would be 33.3%: any candidate receiving more than that number of votes, whether from first preference votes or from votes transferred from others, would be deemed elected.</p>
<h3 id="electing-all-board-members-county-wide-with-ranked-choice-voting">Electing all board members county-wide with ranked choice voting</h3>
<p>In this alternate scheme we would revert to the traditional method of electing three at-large Board of Education members elected during presidential election years and four at-large members during gubernatorial election years.  The only difference would be to use ranked choice voting in the elections to select the top candidates, similar to what was described above for using ranked choice voting to elect two at-large members.</p>
<p>Again we could dispense with the primary and just have voters rank all candidates in the general election. In that case the quota for being elected would be 20% plus 1 when electing four board members, and 25% plus 1 when electing three.</p>
<h2 id="addressing-objections-to-ranked-choice-voting">Addressing objections to ranked choice voting</h2>
<p>There are various objections that might be made to using ranked choice voting for Board of Education elections. In this section I address those objections.</p>
<p><em>“Ranked choice voting is too complicated for voters.”</em> I don’t see this as an issue at all. Experience with other jurisdictions, including New York City, has indicated that voters understand the process of ranking candidates and are generally satisfied with the results. Howard County has a relatively highly educated population; if voters in New York City can understand ranked choice voting then I’m sure voters here can as well.</p>
<p><em>“Ranked choice voting is too complicated and expensive for the Howard County Board of Elections.”</em> There would be some added expenses in conducting a ranked choice election, mainly to design the ballots and implement the special process for tabulating results. However, there are plenty of resources available for election officials on how to run ranked choice elections successfully and efficiently, and free and open source ranked choice tabulation software (e.g., RCTab) that has already been certified for use in several jurisdictions. It’s also possible that the Board of Elections could offset some or all of the cost by not conducting Board of Education primary elections, as discussed above.</p>
<p><em>“Since the ranked choice voting calculations depend on knowing the total number of voters, election results will take a long time to determine if voters can vote by mail.”</em> The short answer here is that traditional elections can also take a long time to be decided when mail ballots arrive late, as happened in the 2022 House of Delegates race for District 9A. That’s a universal trade-off with voting by mail, if voters are allowed to mail ballots up to 8:00 PM on election day.</p>
<p>The longer answer is that since the ranked choice calculations can be easily and quickly done by computer, the Board of Elections could simply release intermediate results, including the effects of voters’ second, third, etc., preferences, as the votes come in. As with other elections, results would not be final until all late ballots were accounted for and any other ballot-related issues were resolved.</p>
<p><em>“The ranked choice voting computations are a ‘black box,’ and we don’t have confidence in the way the calculations are done.”</em> This issue can be addressed by using open source software (like RCTab, mentioned above) to provide transparency for how the calculations are done, and then releasing data for the final certified results showing all ballots and how they were marked. This would enable other people (like me, or anyone else able to run the software) to double-check the official results.</p>
<p><em>“Ranked choice voting would unduly disadvantage (or unduly advantage&mdash;take your pick) parents’ groups, the Howard County Education Association, the Democratic or Republican parties, or other interest groups.”</em> Interest groups could still make endorsements like they currently do, indicating which candidates should (in their view) receive voter preferences, and which should not. If they strongly favor some preferred candidates over others, they can specify how they think voters should rank them.</p>
<p>The only real caution interest groups would need to take would be to not endorse too many candidates, lest voters split their first preference votes between them and cause none of them to be elected in the first round.  As noted above, this is actually an advantage of ranked choice voting: it reduces the ability of a 51% majority to elect all at-large members by bloc voting for a slate of candidates.</p>
<p><em>“Ranked choice voting is inferior to approval voting.”</em> This is a more esoteric objection, but is worth addressing. Approval voting is a different voting scheme in which voters simply mark which candidates are acceptable to them&mdash;and can approve of more than one&mdash;and then the candidate with the most “approvals” is elected. Regardless of whether approval voting is superior to ranked choice voting, either in theory or in practice, its greater simplicity is only present in elections where a single candidate is elected.</p>
<p>So-called “multiwinner approval voting” is more complicated, requiring a choice between multiple methods of counting approval ballots. It would be simpler for both voters and election officials to use a standard ranked choice mechanism for both single-winner districts and multi-winner at-large seats.</p>
<p><em>“Ranked choice voting could produce a result that doesn’t reflect who should actually win.”</em> There are no perfect voting systems that are guaranteed to produce intuitively “correct” results in every possible scenario. Ranked choice voting is no exception.</p>
<p>But ranked choice voting has been successfully used for many elections, not only in the US but also in juridictions like Ireland and Northern Ireland, which have conducted dozens of elections and elected hundreds of officeholders using ranked choice voting. (They just call it something different: “proportional representation with a single transferable vote,” or PR-STV.)  There is no reason to think it can’t work just as well in Howard County.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<ul>
<li>Proposed legislation relating to election of the Howard County Board of Education:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/sites/default/files/2022-11/10-23%20Bill%20Text.pdf">Ho. Co. 10-23</a>. Proposed legislation to make two members of the Board of Education appointed, not elected. Sponsored by the chair of the Howard County delegation.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/HoCo16.23.pdf">Ho. Co. 16-23</a>. Proposed legislation to allow Howard County to elect the Board of Education using ranked choice voting. Sponsored by Chao Wu and Jen Terrasa.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.rcvresources.org/">Ranked Choice Voting Resource Center</a>. Includes <a href="https://www.rcvresources.org/election-admins">resources for election administrators</a>, the <a href="https://www.rcvresources.org/rctab">RCTab tabulation software</a>, and links to <a href="https://www.rcvresources.org/data-clearinghouse">ballot data</a> for past ranked choice elections in several jurisdictions.</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Expanding the five-district Howard County Council to three members per district</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 02 Oct 2021 09:10:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district/</guid>
      <description>Another approach to expanding the Howard County Council, still using five districts but now with three members per district.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: Another approach to expanding the Howard County Council, still using five districts but now with three members per district.</em></p>
<p>This is a follow-up to my seven-part series (starting with <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">part 1</a>) on expanding the Howard County Council, using ranked choice voting to elect council members, and leveraging automated redistricting software overseen by an independent redistricting commission.</p>
<p>This particular post describes an alternative to the three-district map proposed in that series and illustrated in <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a>: I retain the idea of a fifteen-member county council, but instead of using three districts (with five members each) I use five districts (as with the current council), electing three members in each district. As in the previous example I assume the use of ranked choice voting.</p>
<h2 id="an-example-five-district-map">An example five district map</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-5-district-map.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-5-district-map-embed.png"
         alt="Proposed Howard County Council district map for 15-member council elected in five districts"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A proposed district map for a fifteen-member Howard County Council elected in five districts (three members per district) using ranked choice voting. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The map above shows the five districts produced by the Auto-Redistrict software based on the data and options I provided. The new districts divide the county into the following areas; I’ve numbered the districts so that they roughly correspond with the current council districts:</p>
<ul>
<li>District 1. Ellicott City.</li>
<li>District 2. Northeastern Howard County, including Elkridge.</li>
<li>District 3. Southeastern Howard County, including North Laurel, Savage, Maple Lawn, and Fulton, as well as the Village of Kings Contrivance.</li>
<li>District 4. Central Columbia, excluding some outlying villages.</li>
<li>District 5. Western Howard County, including the Villages of River Hill and Harper’s Choice.</li>
</ul>
<p>Because of the way that the Auto-Redistrict software works, starting from a random assignment of precincts to districts and then “evolving” the map from there, each run may end up producing a somewhat different map. For this run I was lucky, as I think this particular map does a really good job of matching up with the key population centers in the county. The main departure is that Columbia is too populous to fit into a single district; the proposed District 4 includes only about two-thirds of Columbia’s population.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-5-district-racial-breakdown.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-5-district-racial-breakdown-embed.png"
         alt="Population breakdown by race and ethnicity for the proposed three council districts"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The graph above shows the population percentage breakdown by race and ethnicity for each of the five proposed Howard County Council districts. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Based on the 2020 Census figures, the racial and ethnic groups in these five districts would break down as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>District 1. Non-Hispanic Whites would comprise about half the population of this of this district, at 49%, with Asians the next largest group at about 31%. Non-Hispanic Blacks would comprise about 10% of the population at 10%, with multi-racial people (or people of other races) and people of Hispanic origin the smallest groups, at about 5% each.</li>
<li>District 2. Non-Hispanic Whites would be a slight minority in this district, at about 46%. Blacks and Asians would be roughly equal as a proportion of the population, at about 20% and 21% respectively.  People of Hispanic origin would be about 10%, and multi-racial people or people of other races about 6%.</li>
<li>District 3. Non-Hispanic Whites would be a distinct minority in this district, at 41% of the population, with Blacks and Asians about 25% and 18% respectively. The proportions of people of Hispanic origin and multi-racial people (or people of other races) would be comparable those in District 2, at 10% and 6% respectively.</li>
<li>District 4. Non-Hispanic Whites would again be a distinct minority in this district, at 42%. This district would have the highest Black population, at 30%. The next most populous group would be people of Hispanic orgin at 12%, with Asians at 9% and multi-racial people and people of other races at 7%.</li>
<li>District 5. This would be the only district with a non-Hispanic White majority, at 58%. The proportion of Asians would be about 21% (similar to District 2), while the proportion of Non-Hispanic Blacks would be about 11% (similar to District 1). The proportions of people of Hispance origin and multi-racial people (or people of other races) would be similar to those in District 1, at %% each.</li>
</ul>
<p>(For figures for Howard County as a whole, see <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a> of the redistricting series.)</p>
<p>Assuming some level of vote transfers, Blacks would be well-positioned to win seats in Districts 4, 3, and 2 (in that order), while Asians would be positioned to win seats in Districts 1, 2, and 5. (Again, see <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a> for a caution about interpreting “Asians” as a monolithic demographic group.)</p>
<p>The remaining nine seats would likely go to Non-Hispanic Whites. As of the 2020 Census Non-Hispanic Whites are now a minority in the county overall, but they’d likely still comprise a majority on the county council&mdash;though not as much so as at present.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-5-district-party-breakdown.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-5-district-party-breakdown-embed.png"
         alt="Estimated vote share by party for the proposed five council districts"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The graph above shows the estimated major party vote share for each of the proposed five Howard County Council districts, based on estimated votes by precinct in the 2018 general elections for Howard County Council. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>How would Democratic and Republican candidates fare in each district, and what might the final makeup of the Howard County Council look like? When ranked choice voting is used in a three-member district, a candidate is automatically elected if they are selected as the first preference on at least 25% plus one of the ballots cast (the “quota”).</p>
<p>So, for example, in the precincts comprising the proposed new District 1 I estimated the Republican share of the total vote for Howard County Council in the 2018 general election at about 38%. If a single Republican candidate ran in the Northeast District they would pretty much be guaranteed to be designated as the most preferred candidate by more than 25% of voters. The Republican Party would thus have one “safe” seat in the proposed District 1.</p>
<p>On the other hand, for the precincts in the proposed new District 1 I estimated the Democratic share of the county council vote in 2018 at about 62%. Suppose that only two Democratic candidates ran in the Northeast District and they each received roughly equal shares of the first preference votes&mdash;in other words, about half of Democratic voters picked the first candidate as their most preferred candidate and about half of Democrats gave their first preference to the second candidate.</p>
<p>Then given a 62% Democratic vote share each candidate would be designated as the most preferred candidate by about 31% of voters, well over the quota of 25% plus one, and both would automatically be elected. The Democratic Party would thus have two “safe” seats in the Northeast District.</p>
<p>With one Republican seat and two Democratic seats that would fill all three seats in the district. The Democratic party might be tempted to run three candidates, or the Republican party two, but they’d be running a risk in doing so. (See <a href="/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/">part 6</a> for a more in-depth discussion of this issue.)</p>
<p>A similar analysis can be done for the other districts. A summary of the likely results for all districts is as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>District 1. Party breakdown: 62% Democrats, 38% Republicans. Likely two safe Democratic seats, one safe Republican seat.</li>
<li>District 2. Party breakdown: 64% Democrats, 36% Republicans (similar to District 1). Likely two safe Democratic seats, one safe Republican seat.</li>
<li>District 3. Party breakdown: 71% Democrats, 29% Republicans. Likely two safe Democratic seats and one safe Republican seat, although it’s possible that Democrats might be able to win all three seats against a weak Republican candidate.</li>
<li>District 4. Party breakdown: 77% Democrats, 23% Republicans. Democrats would have an even better chance here for a three-seat sweep.</li>
<li>District 5. Party breakdown: 51% Democrats, 49% Republicans. This would likely be a true swing district, with one safe Democratic seat, one safe Republican seat, and one seat a toss-up.</li>
</ul>
<p>Overall with this district map and the use of ranked choice voting Democrats would likely win at least nine or ten seats on the Howard County Council and Republicans at least four. The remaining one or two seats would be in play, with the most likely result being a 10-5 or 11-4 Democratic majority&mdash;a more balanced result than the 4-1 Democratic majority on the current council. (And as noted in a previous post it’s also possible that a third party or independent candidate could capture a seat and act as a deciding vote on the council.)</p>
<p>Overall the idea of electing fifteen council members from five districts has a lot to recommend it: the use of five districts is a continuation of current practice, and the resulting map is very reflective of the geography of the county.</p>
<p>Electing only three members per district using ranked choice voting (as opposed to five) would also simplify both ballot design and the task of voters: there would likely be fewer candidates on the ballot to rank, and in some cases Republican voters at least would likely only need to indicate a first preference (assuming that they were indifferent as to which Democratic candidates were elected).</p>
<p>The major downside of this approach, at least from the point of view of the Republican party, is that it somewhat disadvantages Republican candidates relative to electing five members in each of three districts. That’s a general issue with ranked choice voting: for a minority party’s results to match its vote share, it helps to have more candidates on the ballot for voters to rank.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For the code used to generate the graphs above, see my document <a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/816465">Howard County Council Expansion, Part 4</a>. For the data behind the district maps see <a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/810352">Howard County Council Expansion, Part 1</a>. I ran the Auto-Redistrict application as described in <a href="/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/">part 4</a> of my redistricting series, using the same input data and the same settings, except that I specified five districts with three members each instead of three districts with five members each.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Final thoughts on my Howard County Council redistricting proposal</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 26 Sep 2021 13:30:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/</guid>
      <description>In this last post of the series I talk about why I care about this, and why I did it.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: In this last post of the series I talk about why I care about the redistricting issue, and why I spent the time to create this series.</em></p>
<p>[This is part 7 of a seven-part series. See also <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/">part 2</a>, <a href="/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/">part 3</a>, <a href="/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/">part 4</a>, <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a>, and <a href="/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/">part 6</a>. I also wrote a <a href="/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district">follow-up post</a> that can be viewed as an alternative to part 5.]</p>
<p>In the <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">first post in this series</a> I proposed a comprehensive overhaul of the way we elect the Howard County Council:</p>
<ol>
<li>Expand the council from five to fifteen members.</li>
<li>Reduce the number of council districts from five to three.</li>
<li>Elect five members in each district using ranked choice voting.</li>
<li>Draw the district lines using an automated process overseen by an independent nonpartisan commission.</li>
</ol>
<p>In this final post I discuss what motivated me to spend the considerable amount of time it took to research the issue of county council redistricting, to analyze the data and find software to create a proposed district map, and to write this series.</p>
<h2 id="why-do-i-care-about-this">Why do I care about this?</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/ex-slaves-vote.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ex-slaves-vote-embed.jpg"
         alt="Ex-slaves voting for the first time"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Ex-slaves vote for the first time after the Civil War. Image originally published in <em>Harper’s Weekly</em>, now in the public domain.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As I discussed in a previous post, my proposal would reduce the likely Democratic majority on the Howard County Council and allow Republicans to win proportionally more seats than they currently do. My fellow Democrats might therefore ask me, “Frank, what the heck are you thinking?!?” My answer is as follows:</p>
<p>First, in addition to being a proud and lifelong Democrat I am a strong believer in the value of liberal democracy: that liberty is best secured by a political system in which every person has equal power to influence government actions through their votes. Partisan gerrymandering and other forms of voter suppression work against that ideal.</p>
<p>The Republican Party was once the party that freed the slaves, amended the Constitution to help secure their rights, and made it possible for some of them (i.e., the men) to vote for the first time ever. How the GOP wishes to treat that great legacy through its present-day actions is its own business.</p>
<p>But my own party has evolved from being the past architect of Jim Crow, and I abhor anything it might do that reminds us of the days of the poll tax, voter “literacy” tests, and other measures that served to make the votes of some people worth more than those of other people.</p>
<p>Second, if we are ever to move beyond our current polarized and poisoned political environment then that process will have to start at the local level, where the rewards for political misbehavior are less and a dedicated movement for electoral reform might have a better chance of being successful.</p>
<p>Finally, I believe that campaigning in a more competitive political environment will ultimately be good for the Democratic Party. Partisan gerrymandering can make for a weak party: why bother doing the hard work of grassroots organizing when you can just redraw district lines every ten years to give yourself a structural advantage over the other party?</p>
<p>(And as a corollary, a weak party is a party that can find itself taken over by politicians primarily interested in their own success rather than that of their party and their fellow candidates and elected officials.)</p>
<p>I think that improving the future prospects of the Democratic Party at a state and national level starts with building strong county- and city-level party organizations. Running under a ranked choice voting system would mean that those organizations couldn’t afford to get lazy when it comes to winning elections. And a stronger Democratic party that can win competitive elections means increased opportunities to advance the interests of Democratic voters and of Americans in general.</p>
<h2 id="betting-on-an-alternative">Betting on an alternative</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/black-suffragists.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/black-suffragists.jpg"
         alt="Black women suffragists meet in Georgia circa 1910-1920. Two of them hold a sign reading Head-Quarters for Colored Women Voters"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Black women at a suffragist meeting in Georgia circa 1910&ndash;1920. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) <a href="https://digitalcollections.nypl.org/items/09740960-d940-0136-3dde-3d48f083c992">Original photograph</a> by Johnston’s Studio of Columbia SC, now in the public domain.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>OK, so I care about this issue. But why spend so much time working on this series of blog posts and the data analyses behind them, when it’s not clear that anyone else cares about this? As David Clifton remarked on Facebook, “I haven’t noticed people lining up outside the council building to complain they feel they have inadequate representation.”</p>
<p>Maybe he’s right. Maybe Howard County Republicans don’t care that they only have 20% of the seats on the county council despite having at least a third of the vote share. Maybe Democratic voters in District 5, or Republican voters in some other districts, don’t care that they don’t have a realistic chance of electing a council member from their own party.</p>
<p>Maybe young Democratic activists looking to run for elective office are happy to wait a decade or more for one of the few county council seats to open up, as Democratic council members are term-limited or move on to other offices. Maybe all the people with political ambitions in Howard County are content to work within the current two-party system.</p>
<p>And maybe Chinese-Americans, or Indian-Americans, or Korean-Americans, or people of Hispanic origin, or members of any of the other racial and ethnic groups in the county, don’t mind that no one of their background has ever been elected to the county council.</p>
<p>The work I put into creating this series of posts is in effect one big bet that there are people out there who are not happy with the way we currently elect the Howard County Council, and would like to see some alternative proposals. But the alternatives that have traditionally been on offer&mdash;an increased number of single-member districts, or a few at-large seats, both elected by the traditional “first past the post” method&mdash;will likely not address people’s concerns.</p>
<p>We know this because Howard County has already tried these methods: The initial use of five at-large county council seats led to Democratic dominance on the council beyond what the Democratic vote share would warrant. Howard County Republicans put a lot of effort into promoting and ultimately achieving a switch to five council districts, only to eventually find that this mechanism was vulnerable to Democratic gerrymandering of the district lines.</p>
<p>The computer scientist Alan Kay once said of the original Apple Macintosh that it was “the first personal computer good enough to be criticized”. That was my goal with this series of posts: to put forth an alternative plan for Howard County Council redistricting that seriously attempted to address issues with the current council district system, was backed up by a reasonable amount of data analysis (sufficient at least for a first attempt), and produced a district map and associated party and racial/ethnic breakdowns that could be usefully evaluated and compared against other alternatives. Whether or not I’ve succeeded in that goal I leave to others to judge.</p>
<p>Anyway, that’s it for me. I’m a blogger, not an activist or organizer. If anyone else wants to take these ideas and run with them they’re welcome to do so. In the meantime I’d be happy to answer any further questions and concerns others might have about this proposal, and will update the previous Q&amp;A post as appropriate.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>There are a number of other explorations that could be done relative to Howard County Council redistricting and alternative electoral systems. I list some of them here in case anyone wants to take them on.</p>
<ul>
<li>Repeat my redistricting analysis, but using census blocks as the basic unit of the districts instead of precincts.</li>
<li>Do simulations of ranked choice elections for the proposed three districts using one of the many RCV simulators available. (Just do an Internet search for “ranked choice voting simulator.”)</li>
<li>Repeat the redistricting exercise I did, but for other numbers of council districts or members per district, for example five districts with three members each (for the same total of fifteen members as my proposal) or three districts with three members each (for a total of nine).</li>
<li>Do an analysis of the current five single-member council districts, but using ranked choice voting (in this context known as “instant-runoff voting or IRV) instead of “first past the post.”</li>
<li>Repeat the previous analysis, but use approval voting instead of ranked choice voting. (This would require some assumptions on how voters would vote in such a system.)</li>
<li>Analyze councils with seven, nine, eleven, or thirteen single-member districts, elected using ranked choice voting.</li>
<li>Repeat the previous analyses with approval voting instead.</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Questions about my proposal for Howard County Council redistricting deserve answers</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 25 Sep 2021 09:25:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/</guid>
      <description>My proposal for Howard County Council expansion has raised a lot of questions. Here are my answers.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: My proposal for Howard County Council expansion has raised a lot of questions. Here are my answers.</em></p>
<p>[This is part 6 of a seven-part series. See also <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/">part 2</a>, <a href="/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/">part 3</a>, <a href="/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/">part 4</a>, <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a>, and <a href="/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/">part 7</a>. I also wrote a <a href="/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district">follow-up post</a> that can be viewed as an alternative to part 5.]</p>
<p>In the <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">first post in this series</a> I proposed a comprehensive overhaul of the way we elect the Howard County Council:</p>
<ol>
<li>Expand the council from five to fifteen members.</li>
<li>Reduce the number of council districts from five to three.</li>
<li>Elect five members in each district using ranked choice voting.</li>
<li>Draw the district lines using an automated process overseen by an independent nonpartisan commission.</li>
</ol>
<p>In this post I attempt to answer various questions people have raised about this proposal. (Note: I also addressed other questions about ranked choice voting for Howard County Council elections in an earlier post, “<a href="/2020/03/04/ranked-choice-voting-questions-and-answers/">Ranked choice voting: questions and answers</a>”; however that post assumed electing only one council member per district. Also, I may make updates to this post if I get further questions that merit answers, or if some of my answers turn out to be incorrect or incomplete.)</p>
<h2 id="expanding-the-council-and-having-fewer-districts">Expanding the council and having fewer districts</h2>
<p><em>Doesn’t Howard County’s charter provide for automatically expanding the number of council members based on population?</em></p>
<p>Unfortunately, it does not. The county charter specifically states that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The legislative power of the County is vested in the County Council of Howard County which shall consist of five members who shall be elected from the Councilmanic Districts. . . .  Each Councilmanic District shall elect one Council member. (<a href="https://library.municode.com/md/howard_county/codes/code_of_ordinances?nodeId=HOCOCH_ARTIITHLEBR_S202THCOCO">Section 202. The County Council</a>.)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So the county charter would need to be changed even just to add new council members, let alone move to multi-member districts.</p>
<p>A related question is whether the use of multi-member districts is consistent with the Maryland Constitution. The relevant language is as follows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The charter for the government of any county governed by the provisions of this Article may provide for the election of members of the county council by the voters of councilmanic districts therein established, or by the voters of the entire county, or by a combination of these methods of election. (<a href="https://msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/43const/html/11aar.html">Article XI-A, Section 3A</a>.)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This doesn’t explicitly rule out having a county council elected from multi-member districts, but it doesn’t explicitly permit it either.</p>
<p><em>If each district had five county council members, how would a person know which of their council members to call if they needed help?</em></p>
<p>First, this is a problem Howard County has faced before. Liz Bobo, Ed Cochran, C. Vernon Gray, Lloyd Knowles, and Ginny Thomas were all elected to the Howard County Council during a time when council members were elected at large, before council districts were adopted in 1984. So in a sense each of them had the entire county population for their constituency, and we can look to their experience to see how this worked in practice.</p>
<p>My own answer is as follows: If a constituent has five council members whom they can go to for assistance or to lobby for something, they’ll go to whomever has a particular interest or expertise in the issue at question, has proved helpful in the past, and/or has political views congenial to themselves.</p>
<p>Each council member in a district would likely have natural constituencies, based on the area of the county in which they live, particular interest groups they represent, and so on. For example, someone living in Ellicott City concerned about, say, Route 40 development would likely contact whichever council member in the West District happened to live in Ellicott City and seemed interested in that issue.</p>
<p>Council members within a district might then compete with each other to provide services to their constituents and address their concerns. It’s possible that in some cases a constituent who’s a Democratic voter may prefer dealing with a Republican council member, or vice versa, because they find that that council member is more effective at getting things done for them. But it’s also possible that they might join forces and establish unified channels for dealing with constituent requests, especially if they were of the same party.</p>
<p><em>Could we find fifteen people who could and would invest the time to serve on an expanded county council? And wouldn’t that be expensive?</em></p>
<p>I think there are more than enough ambitious political activists of all parties and ideologies in Howard to fill a fifteen-member council. And I would rather have them running for the county council and leave the Board of Education elections to people whose primary interest is in overseeing the Howard County Public School System.</p>
<p>As for the expense, in the <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/sites/default/files/2021-05/Operating%20Budget%20FY2022%20web.pdf">proposed Howard County FY22 operating budget</a> the budget for the county council is just under $6 million out of an overall budget of $1.8 billion, or about 0.3%. Even if it doubled or tripled with an expanded county council it would still be under 1% of county operating expenditures.</p>
<p><em>Wouldn’t expanding the county council expand the power of the county executive by weakening the ability of any one council member to hold the county executive accountable?</em></p>
<p>A county council is a legislature, and it’s inherent in the nature of a legislature that there will be many legislators relative to the executive. Even with a fifteen-member council an individual council member would have significantly more power to affect legislation and hold the executive branch accountable than (say) a typical Maryland state delegate out of the 141 members of the House of Delegates, or a typical state senator out of the 47 members of the Maryland Senate.</p>
<p>In practice I suspect that a fifteen-member council would delegate much of its work to committees, and the committee heads would hold significant power in terms of holding the county executive accountable.</p>
<p><em>If we reduce the number of districts from five to three, would western Howard County have any representation at all?</em></p>
<p>As discussed in the previous post, one of the three proposed districts would include western Howard County, and would have five council members (out of fifteen). It would be roughly equivalent to the current District 5, but a bit bigger, since it would contain about one hundred-ten thousand people vs. about sixty thousand today. I’m confident at least some of the five council members from the proposed West District would be from western Howard proper (as opposed to, say, Ellicott City or River Hill).</p>
<p><em>Wouldn’t decreasing the number of districts to three increase the potential to gerrymander districts so that no Republicans get elected to the Council?</em></p>
<p>This might be the case if members within each district were elected at-large. However ranked choice voting has the effect of ensuring Democratic or Republican shares of seats proportional to the parties’ vote shares. See my previous post.</p>
<p><em>Wouldn’t this proposal reduce the diversity of representation in terms of the different types of communities in Howard County, and enable certain high density areas to control the agenda?</em></p>
<p>My guess here is that the concern is with reducing the number of districts from five to three, thus lumping different different communities into larger subdivisions. My response is that even though the number of districts would be smaller, the number of council members per district would be much larger, and that would allow more effective representation of different communities.</p>
<p>For example, in the proposed West District there would be three relatively large communities, Ellicott City, River Hill, and Maple Lawn, along with the various smaller communities of Western Howard County. It’s perfectly possible that candidates could pitch themselves as representing one of those distinct areas (for example, a candidate specifically focusing on the Maple Lawn/Fulton area).</p>
<p>As for the concern about high-density areas controlling the agenda, areas with more population will always have more voting power and consequently more representation at the county council. See for example the current council, in which there are four council members representing relative populous and high density areas and only one representing the lower-density and less populous rural West.</p>
<p><em>Wouldn’t having a fifteen-member county council at least double or triple the meeting length? Would council members still be able to stay part time?</em></p>
<p>Baltimore city has a fifteen-member city council. We can look to them to see what to do (or not to do) to efficiently conduct council business. I suspect one approach will be to do what other larger legislatures do, namely to delegate some matters to committees, with the full council needing to get involved only at later stages.</p>
<p><em>If the goal of expanding the council is to enable council members to be better serve their constituents, couldn’t that be accomplished more cheaply and effectively just by increasing the number of staff members assisting each member?</em></p>
<p>Serving a constituent is not the same as representing a constituent. A progressive Democrat in District 5 may be served by their Republican council member, and served well at that, but may not feel represented by them. Ditto for a conservative Republican in other districts in which Democratic candidates invariably win.</p>
<h2 id="questions-about-ranked-choice-voting">Questions about ranked choice voting</h2>
<p><em>In ranked choice voting how do you determine which excess ballots get transferred from a candidate that wins election to another candidate?</em></p>
<p>Per the FairVote advocacy site: “[Vote transfers] can be done many different ways, but the best way is to transfer a fraction of every vote to its next choice. That way, every vote is treated equally and no part of any vote is wasted.” So if a candidate is (say) 20% above the quota of first-preference votes, you take the second preference votes for everybody who voted for that candidate, multiply them by 0.2, and add these fractional votes to each of the candidates receiving the transfers.</p>
<p><em>How do you resolve the fact that whether Candidate A or Candidate B wins a seat may depend on whether a much lower ranked Candidate C gets more votes than Candidate D?</em></p>
<p>How do we resolve the fact that in the 1992 presidential election Bill Clinton won with a minority of the vote, due in large part to Ross Perot taking a large percentage of the vote away from George H. W. Bush, when it’s quite possible that most Perot voters would have preferred Bush to Clinton?</p>
<p>Any electoral system used in a race with more than two candidates has theoretical cases where it will fail to adhere to some set of reasonable criteria. (There’s even a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow's_impossibility_theorem">mathematical theorem</a> about this.)  But how often do these situations occur in practice? Ranked choice voting with multi-member districts has been used for a long time in Ireland and Northern Ireland in particular (under the name “proportional representation with a single transferable vote,” or PR-STV) and to my knowledge has not experienced major issues of the type described.</p>
<p>It’s also important to look at the overall effect of a given electoral system. I dislike the “first past the post” electoral system (the one used in the US) not because of the results of a single presidential race, but because as a general tendency it tends to lead to the dominance of two political parties and the crowding out of independents and third parties, and because when used in multi-member districts it tends to produce one-party dominance at the expense of proportional representation. If ranked choice voting can help correct that then I think the occasional odd result is bearable.</p>
<p><em>Why wouldn’t parties at least run five candidates for five districts?</em></p>
<p>The problem here is as follows: When a party runs too many candidates relative to their vote share, it will likely find that none of the candidates get enough first-preference votes to be elected in the first round.</p>
<p>For example, in a five-member district using RCV the quota is approximately 16.7%. If Democrats had (say) a 60% vote share and first preference votes were spread relatively evenly among five Democratic candidates, each would receive about 12% of first preference votes, and would therefore fail to be elected in the first round (which requires exceeding the quota).</p>
<p>One might say, “well, they can be still be elected on transferred votes.” But the question then becomes, where are those transferred votes going to come from? In the second round the only source of transfers would be from winning candidates in the first round who have excess votes (i.e., above the 16.7% quota), or from a last-place candidate eliminated because no candidate met the quota.</p>
<p>But in our example no Democrats won in the first round, so there would be no excess votes to transfer from them. And if a candidate was eliminated, there are two possibilities: 1) The eliminated candidate was either a Republican or third-party candidate, which may not result in any transfers to Democrats. This would leave all of the Democratic candidates still below the quota. 2) The eliminated candidate was a Democratic candidate, in which case the Democratic party’s goal of electing five candidates has failed at the starting gate.</p>
<p>The second and subsequent rounds can be similarly analyzed. Such an analysis raises two questions: 1) If in the scenario described it’s very likely that at least one Democratic candidate will be eliminated, and possibly more than one, what was the point in running five candidates in the first place? 2) What happens if some people voting for Democratic candidates just mark a first-preference vote for their favorite candidate and don’t indicate second, third, etc., preferences? Then even after a Democratic candidate is eliminated there may not be enough second preference votes for other Democratic candidates available to make up the shortfall for another Democratic candidate.</p>
<p>Exploring the full ramifications of running too many candidates would take too long for this post. Suffice to say that I have read a lot of material about real-life RCV elections, and everything I have read is consistent with the view it is a potentially disastrous strategy for a party to field many more candidates than their vote share would warrant.</p>
<p><em>It seems really easy for a voter to accidentally mark two third choice candidates. Does this spoil the entire ballot?</em></p>
<p>It does indeed. The possibility of users making errors on ranked choice ballots is a real one. Opponents of ranked choice voting point to rates of spoiled or rejected ballots as high as 10% or more in past US elections using RCV.</p>
<p>This problem can be addressed through a combination of proper ballot design, voter education, and voter experience in using RCV. In the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Irish_general_election#Voting_summary">2020 Irish general election</a> the rate of spoiled ballots was only 0.8%. This is comparable to the rate of ballot spoilage and rejection for absentee and mail-in ballots in the 2020 US election, which <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2020:_Analysis_of_rejected_ballots">per Ballotpedia</a> was also 0.8%.</p>
<p><em>The New York City Democratic primary was conducted using ranked choice voting, and it took a long time to get the results. Is this an inherent problem with RCV?</em></p>
<p>The problems in New York City appear to be in large part due to inexperience and possibly outright incompetence on the part of the NYC elections board. However, there is one inherent issue with ranked choice voting that can in fact delay announcement of results:</p>
<p>As previously noted, key to ranked choice voting is the concept of the quota, which for a five-member district is defined as one-sixth of the total number of votes, plus one. But that means that in order to compute the quota you first need to know the total number of votes, and that means that you have to have all the votes in hand first before you can starting calculating results.</p>
<p>That’s not that big an issue for votes cast on election day. But what about mail-in ballots? Maryland’s <a href="https://elections.maryland.gov/voting/absentee.html">current rules for mail-in voting</a> allow up to ten days after election day for mail-in ballots to be received. If mail-in ballots are a significant fraction of the total vote then with an RCV election it might take several days after election day for there to be even preliminary results.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p><em>Why didn’t you consider using approval voting? Or a party slate system? These don’t have the problems that ranked choice voting does.</em></p>
<p>There are multiple answers here. First, my primary goal was to look at a system that both reduced the number of districts (to reduce the potential for gerrymandering) and provided representation for political parties and other groups commensurate with their voting power. That naturally led me to look at ranked choice voting, and having software (i.e., Auto-Redistrict) that could compute district maps under those assumptions sealed the deal.</p>
<p>Other systems may not necessarily address the goals I have. For example, approval voting (in which each voter can indicate multiple candidates that have their approval) is worth looking at when electing a council member in a single-member district. However when applied to a multi-member district, at least in its simplest form, it can behave like traditional at-large voting and thwart proportional representation.</p>
<p>For example, suppose that we use the simple rule that in a five member district the five candidates receiving the most approvals will be elected. If Democrats form the majority, if all Democratic voters approve all Democratic candidates, and if no Democratic voters approve Republican or third-party candidates, then all five Democratic candidates will be ranked in the top five based on the number of approvals, and all five will be elected.</p>
<p>I think it’s definitely worth considering other election systems for use in Howard County. But&mdash;not to brag or anything&mdash;I put a lot of work into my analysis of ranked choice voting in the context of Howard County Council elections, and I’d like to see a similar amount of work put into evaluating any suggested alternatives.</p>
<p>As mentioned above, I’ll update this post as appropriate. But in the meantime I’m coming to the end of the series, with my <a href="/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/">next (and final) post</a> discussing why I think this general issue is so important.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>The following may be of interest:</p>
<ul>
<li>The Wikipedia article on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote">single transferable vote</a> (STV) electoral system contains a discussion of how vote transfers can be done. (STV is an older term for ranked choice voting.)</li>
<li>Ballotpedia summarizes various <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Ranked-choice_voting_(RCV)#Support_and_opposition">arguments for and against ranked choice voting</a>.</li>
<li>The Center for Election Science, an organization supportive of approval voting, <a href="https://electionscience.org/library/approval-voting-versus-irv/">argues for it over ranked choice voting</a>. Note that their analysis appears to assume that only a single candidate will win election, and if so is not necessarily applicable to multi-member districts like those I’ve proposed.</li>
<li>FairVote, an organization supportive of ranked choice voting, <a href="https://www.fairvote.org/electoral_systems_rcv_vs_approval_voting">argues for it over approval voting</a>.</li>
</ul>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>It’s worth noting here that Ireland has fairly strict restrictions on absentee voting; this may be at least part of the reason why.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>What might a more diverse and inclusive Howard County Council look like?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 24 Sep 2021 07:45:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/</guid>
      <description>Here’s one example of what a more open, fair, and inclusive approach to Howard County Council redistricting could produce.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: Here’s one example of what a more open, fair, and inclusive approach to Howard County Council redistricting could produce.</em></p>
<p>[This is part 5 of a seven-part series. See also <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/">part 2</a>, <a href="/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/">part 3</a>, <a href="/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/">part 4</a>, <a href="/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/">part 6</a>, and <a href="/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/">part 7</a>. I also wrote a <a href="/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district">follow-up post</a> that can be viewed as an alternative to this one.]</p>
<p>In the <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">first post in this series</a> I proposed a comprehensive overhaul of the way we elect the Howard County Council:</p>
<ol>
<li>Expand the council from five to fifteen members.</li>
<li>Reduce the number of council districts from five to three.</li>
<li>Elect five members in each district using ranked choice voting.</li>
<li>Draw the district lines using an automated process overseen by an independent nonpartisan commission.</li>
</ol>
<p>In this post I present the results of the automated redistricting I did using the Auto-Redistrict software to draw district lines for a fifteen-member Howard County Council elected in three districts using ranked choice voting.</p>
<h2 id="what-might-the-new-districts-look-like">What might the new districts look like?</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-3-district-map.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-3-district-map-embed.png"
         alt="Proposed Howard County Council district map for 15-member council elected in three districts"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A proposed district map for a fifteen-member Howard County Council elected in three districts (five members per district) using ranked choice voting. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The map above shows the three districts produced by the Auto-Redistrict software based on the data and options I provided. The new districts divide the county into the following areas:</p>
<ul>
<li>Southeastern Howard County, including Savage, North Laurel, most of east Columbia south of Route 175, and most of west Columbia except the Village of River Hill.</li>
<li>Northeastern Howard County, including Elkridge, Ellicott City south of Route 40, and east Columbia north of Route 175.</li>
<li>Western Howard County, including Ellicott City north of Route 40, Maple Lawn, and the Village of River Hill in Columbia.</li>
</ul>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-3-district-racial-breakdown.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-3-district-racial-breakdown-embed.png"
         alt="Population breakdown by race and ethnicity for the proposed three council districts"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The graph above shows the population percentage breakdown by race and ethnicity for each of the three proposed Howard County Council districts. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Based on the 2020 Census figures, the racial and ethnic groups in these three districts would break down as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>Northeast District. Non-Hispanic Whites would be a minority in this district, at 46%. Non-Hispanic Blacks and Asians would form roughly equal parts of the population at 18% and 21% respectively. People of Hispanic origin would be about half those percentages at 9%, and multi-racial people or people of other races would be the smallest group, at 6%.</li>
<li>Southeast District. The population of non-Hispanic Whites in this district would be even lower, at 40%, with Blacks at about three-quarters of the White population, at 29%. The population of Asians and people of Hispanic origin would be roughly comparable at 13% and 11 % respectively, with multiracial people or people of other races again the smallest group, at 7%.</li>
<li>West District. This is the only district in which non-Hispanic Whites would form a majority, at 54%. At 26% Asians would have almost as significant a presence in this district as Blacks would in the Southeast District. The population of Blacks would be the smallest of any of the three districts, at 10%. Finally, the populations of people of Hispanic origin and of multiracial people or people of other races would be relatively small, at 5% each.</li>
</ul>
<p>For Howard County as a whole the breakdown of groups is as follows: 8% persons of Hispanic origin, with the remaining (non-Hispanic) population 47% White, 20% Asian, 19% Black, and 5% multiracial, with the number of American Indians, native Hawaiians, and people of other races negligible.</p>
<p>(The breakdown for those 18 years of age or older is similar but leans slightly whiter: 7% Hispanic origin, 51% White, 19% Asian, 18% Black, 3% multiracial, and the remaining groups negligible. I used total population figures with Auto-Redistrict because many of those under the age of 18 will become voters over the next ten years.)</p>
<p>The task of estimating the number of council members from the various racial or ethnic groups is complicated by several factors. One is that the “Asian” category encompasses both East Asians (e.g., Korean- or Chinese-Americans) and South Asians (e.g., Indian-Americans or Pakistani-Americans), and it can’t be assumed that they would vote in similar ways. Another is that it’s not clear who exactly comprises the group of multi-racial voters, and how they might vote.</p>
<p>Having said that, my guess is that under the proposed council district scheme that Blacks and Asians would be represented on the county council in rough proportion to their presence in the population. For example, there would likely be one Black council member from the Northeast District, and at least one and possibly two Black council members from the Southeast District. There would also likely be an Asian council member from the West District, and possibly one each from the Northeast and Southeast Districts.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-3-district-party-breakdown.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-3-district-party-breakdown-embed.png"
         alt="Estimated vote share by party for the proposed three council districts"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The graph above shows the estimated major party vote share for each of the proposed three Howard County Council districts, based on estimated votes by precinct in the 2018 general elections for Howard County Council. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>How would Democratic and Republican candidates fare in each district, and what might the final makeup of the Howard County Council look like? When ranked choice voting is used in a five-member district, a candidate is automatically elected if they are selected as the first preference on just over one-sixth of the ballots cast, or about 16.7% of those voting. (This number is known as the threshold or quota.)</p>
<p>So, for example, in the precincts comprising the Northeast District I estimated the Republican share of the total vote for Howard County Council in the 2018 general election at about 34%. If a single Republican candidate ran in the Northeast District they would pretty much be guaranteed to be designated as the most preferred candidate by at least 16.7% of voters. The Republican Party would thus have one “safe” seat in the Northeast District.</p>
<p>On the other hand, for the precincts in the Northeast District I estimated the Democratic share of the county council vote in 2018 at about 66%. Suppose that only three Democratic candidates ran in the Northeast District and they each received roughly equal shares of the first preference votes&mdash;in other words, about a third of Democratic voters picked the first candidate as their most preferred candidate, about a third of Democrats gave their first preference to the second candidate, and about a third of Democrats gave their first preference to the third candidate.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Then given a 66% Democratic vote share each candidate would be designated as the most preferred candidate by about 22% of voters, well over the quota of 16.7%, and all would automatically be elected. The Democratic Party would thus have three “safe” seats in the Northeast District.</p>
<p>What about the remaining seat? Suppose that the Republican Party ran two candidates, the Democratic Party ran four, and each candidate received first preference votes from a roughly equal share of their own party’s voters. Then each Republican candidate would receive about 17% of first preference votes (34% divided by two), and each Democratic candidate would receive about 16.5% of the first preference votes (66% divided by four).</p>
<p>Since all six candidates would be close to the threshold value of 16.7%, and they could not all be elected, it would be a toss-up as to whether the Democrats or Republicans would win the fifth and final seat after accounting for all the second, third, etc., preferences expressed by voters.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>A similar analysis can be done for the other two districts. A summary of the likely results is as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>Northeast District: Party breakdown: 66% Democrats, 34% Republicans. Likely three safe Democratic seats, one safe Republican seat, and one toss-up.</li>
<li>Southeast District: Party breakdown: 75% Democrats, 25% Republicans. Likely three safe Democratic seats, one safe Republican seat, and one leaning Democratic.</li>
<li>West District: Party breakdown: 53% Democrats, 47% Republicans. Likely two safe Democratic seats, two safe Republican seats, and one leaning Democratic&mdash;albeit only slightly.</li>
</ul>
<p>Overall with this district map and the use of ranked choice voting Democrats would likely win at least eight seats on the Howard County Council and Republicans at least four. The remaining three seats would be in play, with the most likely result being a 9&ndash;6 or 10&ndash;5 Democratic majority&mdash;a significantly more balanced result than the 4&ndash;1 Democratic majority on the current council. (And as noted previously it’s also possible that a third party or independent candidate could capture a seat and act as a deciding vote on the council.)</p>
<p>In my <a href="/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/">next post</a> I attempt to answer various questions that have been raised regarding this particular proposal and regarding ranked choice voting in general.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For the code used to generate the graphs above, see my document <a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/810880">Howard County Council Expansion, Part 3</a>. For the data behind the district maps see <a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/810352">Howard County Council Expansion, Part 1</a>.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>This equal division of first preference votes is not guaranteed to happen, especially if one of the candidates is much more popular than the other two.  However parties can do various things to influence their voters and make an equal division more likely, a process known as “vote management.”  For example, one technique is to randomize the 1&ndash;2&ndash;3&ndash; . . . order of candidates on the sample ballots that parties mail to prospective voters.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>There is an inherent trade-off here between risk and reward.  For example, if the Democratic party ran only three candidates in this district then they would almost be guaranteed three seats based on first-preference votes.  If instead they ran four candidates then they would risk having none of them be elected in the first round, and then having to depend on transfers in subsequent rounds.  If Republicans ran only two candidates and an independent or third-party candidate attracted significant first- and second-preference votes then it’s possible that Democrats might win only two seats.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A more inclusive Howard County needs a more inclusive approach to redistricting</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 23 Sep 2021 07:50:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/</guid>
      <description>A county that cares about inclusivity needs an approach to council redistricting that is open to all, transparent, as fair as possible, and not controlled by partisan interests</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: A county that cares about inclusivity needs an approach to council redistricting that is open to all, transparent, as fair as possible, and not controlled by partisan interests.</em></p>
<p>[This is part 4 of a seven-part series. See also <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/">part 2</a>, <a href="/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/">part 3</a>, <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a>, <a href="/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/">part 6</a>, and <a href="/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/">part 7</a>. I also wrote a <a href="/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district">follow-up post</a> that can be viewed as an alternative to part 5.]</p>
<p>In the <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">first post in this series</a> I proposed a comprehensive overhaul of the way we elect the Howard County Council:</p>
<ol>
<li>Expand the council from five to fifteen members.</li>
<li>Reduce the number of council districts from five to three.</li>
<li>Elect five members in each district using ranked choice voting.</li>
<li>Draw the district lines using an automated process overseen by an independent nonpartisan commission.</li>
</ol>
<p>In this post I discuss how to draw district lines for the proposed three districts, with ranked choice voting used to elect five members in each district.</p>
<h2 id="automated-redistricting-for-everyone">Automated redistricting for everyone</h2>
<figure><a href="http://autoredistrict.org/">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/auto-redistrict-home-page-embed.png"
         alt="Home page of Auto-Redistrict application"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Auto-Redistrict application can be downloaded at no charge and run on Microsoft Windows, macOS, or Linux. (Click to go to the Auto-Redistrict web site.)  As input you can use freely-available population and election data released by the Maryland Department of Planning and the Maryland Board of Elections respectively. Auto-Redistrict © 2013&ndash;2021 Kevin Baas; licensed under the terms of the <a href="https://www.gnu.org/licenses/gpl-3.0.en.html">GNU General Public License 3.0</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>At present the boundaries of the five Howard County Council districts are created and proposed by an appointed redistricting commission, and then adopted by the county council. Each of the two parties appoints an equal number of candidates for the commission and the county council appoints the chair of the commission.</p>
<p>In practice the district boundaries are actually drawn by computer, with each of the two parties using redistricting software to draw potential districts so as to favor their own cause. Since Democrats currently have a majority on the county council, the district boundaries adopted will be those that help get Democrats elected to the council.</p>
<p>Ordinary voters and third parties have little or no influence over this process: the rules are designed to exclude third parties from the redistricting commission, and access to redistricting software has traditionally been restricted to the two major parties.</p>
<p>However there’s no longer any reason (other than inertia and a desire to maintain control) for county council redistricting to be done in this way. Any interested person can now download free software that can automate the process of redrawing district boundaries. They can also download the data that’s required as input to the redistricting software, including population data derived from the US Census, digital maps of precinct boundaries, and past election results. Armed with this software and data they can create their own proposed districts.</p>
<p>That’s exactly what I’ve done for this series of posts. I used the Auto-Redistrict software (created by Kevin Baas), in large part because it supports creation of multi-member districts elected using ranked choice voting. Not only is it free but its source code is also available, so that the way it works can be inspected for correctness and potential biases.</p>
<h2 id="running-auto-redistrict-to-create-a-three-district-map">Running Auto-Redistrict to create a three-district map</h2>
<figure><a href="https://youtu.be/zQ9mS9jXdMc">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-auto-redistrict-screenshot-embed.png"
         alt="A screenshot of the Auto-Redistrict application in action"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Auto-Redistrict software generates multiple maps on each iteration, evaluates the maps according to various criteria, selects the top maps, and recombines and randomly changes them to create a new set of maps for the next iteration. This screenshot from a video of running the software shows the top sixteen maps on iteration number 148. (Click to watch the full video.)  Video by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As input to the program I used the public data released by the Maryland Department of Planning after each decennial census for use in Congressional redistricting. The data files include precinct boundaries and populations for each precinct, including population figures broken down by race and ethnicity to help ensure that districts are not drawn to disadvantage particular minority groups.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>I also used as input to the program the public data on election results released by the Maryland Board of Elections. This can be used to help ensure that districts are not drawn to disadvantage particular political parties. In this case I used results from the 2018 general elections for Howard County Council, since those are the results most relevant for county council redistricting.</p>
<p>(Since there was no Republican candidate in District 3, I estimated the potential vote share for a hypothetical Republican candidate in that district. I also did further estimation to account for early voting and absentee voting, which are not reflected in the official precinct-level results.)</p>
<p>The Auto-Redistrict program allows you to tweak various parameters representing various trade-offs between different goals: for example, how important is it that the districts’ populations be as equal as possible, or that districts be as compact as possible? In my case I used all the default settings.</p>
<p>Howard County has over a hundred precincts. The number of ways in which those precincts could be combined to form three districts is much too large for a person to check each possible district map, and even too large for computers. The Auto-Redistrict software therefore takes a different approach: it generates a set of random maps, evaluates them according to the various criteria being used (compactness, competitiveness, etc.), and then selects the best maps to be carried forward. It then mimics biological evolution, creating a new set of maps by combining different maps together to form new ones, while also introducing some random changes (analogous to mutations).</p>
<p>This process&mdash;evaluating maps, picking the best ones, using them to create new maps, and then repeating the evaluation&mdash;continues until the generated maps become more and more alike, representing the “best of the best” in terms of meeting the desired criteria. In my case I stopped the program after over eight thousand iterations and went with the last map produced. Using a modern laptop the whole process took about half an hour from start to finish.</p>
<h3 id="automated-doesnt-mean-nonpolitical">“Automated” doesn’t mean “nonpolitical”</h3>
<p>Having extolled the virtues of using software to automate the process of doing redistricting, I now have to stop and issue a caution: just because the process can be automated using software designed to handle the mathematics doesn’t mean that we can simply “leave it to the mathematicians”. There are multiple aspects of automated redistricting that entail decisions that are political in nature.</p>
<p>That means in turn that an inclusive approach to redistricting requires the inclusion not just of people who can run software like Auto-Redistrict, but also of people who can question the assumptions and data that go into the software, as well as the results that come out of it. Hence my suggestion that redistricting needs to be overseen by an independent commission that is (as much as possible) designed to be nonpartisan and representative of all the major groups with a stake in the results.</p>
<p>As but one example, I made a judgement call when deciding what party-related data to include in the input to Auto-Redistrict. In particular, I chose to use only the results of the 2018 county council races, and did not use the results of the 2018 county executive race (which had a higher vote share for Republicans). Others may quibble with that decision.</p>
<p>I also haven’t considered using detailed voter registration data (e.g., registered Democrats vs. registered Republicans in each precinct). To my knowledge that data is not fully publicly available, so if I were able to obtain detailed voter registration data I would not have been able to present my analysis in a fully public and transparent manner. Making that trade-off is, again, an inherently political decision: should I have prioritized possibly doing a better job of drawing maps at the expense of excluding people without access to the same data?</p>
<p>Other decisions are involved in how redistricting software like Auto-Redistrict is configured to run. For example, I chose the default settings when prioritizing geometrical considerations like compactness of districts against considerations of fairness like balancing party, racial, or ethnic vote shares. Perhaps others might have had different priorities. Again, these become political decisions, and should not simply be left to the “experts” to decide.</p>
<p>So what I’ve done here in running Auto-Redistrict for my proposed fifteen-member three-district county council shouldn’t be construed as a perfect effort, not to be questioned, or even as the best that could possibly be done. It’s just one example out of many possible ones. In any case, in the <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">next post</a> I’ll present my particular results.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For more information on attempts to take redistricting out of the control of legislative bodies and put it in the hands of independent redistricting commission see:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://www.commoncause.org/independent-redistricting-commissions/">Independent and Advisory Citizen Redistricting Commissions</a>” is a list of links to information about states that have reformed redistricting to one extent or another.</li>
</ul>
<p>For more on drawing district boundaries using computer sofware see:</p>
<ul>
<li>The <a href="http://autoredistrict.org/">Auto-Redistrict web site</a> has more information about how the software works and how to run it.</li>
<li>My document <a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/810352">Howard County Council Expansion, Part 1</a>, discusses creating the input data that Auto-Redistrict uses (Howard County precinct maps combined with demographic data and election results). It includes a detailed discussion of the measures I took to select particular data to be considered, and to estimate data where it was not available for one reason or another.</li>
<li>My video “<a href="https://youtu.be/zQ9mS9jXdMc">Howard County Council Redistricting with Auto-Redistrict</a>” demonstrates how to run Auto-Redestrict to generate a district map for the proposed expanded Howard County Council.</li>
</ul>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The data provided by the Maryland Department of Planning actually goes down to the census block level.  However for my purposes I found it more useful to aggregate the data to the precinct level, and then do redistricting based on precincts.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A Howard County concerned about equity needs a more equitable way to elect its county council</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 22 Sep 2021 07:15:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/</guid>
      <description>Let’s elect the Howard County Council in such a way that every voter has an equal chance to express their preferences and have them matter.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: Let’s elect the Howard County Council in such a way that every voter has an equal chance to express their preferences and have them matter.</em></p>
<p>[This is part 3 of a seven-part series. See also <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/">part 2</a>, <a href="/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/">part 4</a>, <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a>, <a href="/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/">part 6</a>, and <a href="/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/">part 7</a>. I also wrote a <a href="/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district">follow-up post</a> that can be viewed as an alternative to part 5.]</p>
<p>In my <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">first post</a> I proposed a comprehensive overhaul of the way we elect the Howard County Council:</p>
<ol>
<li>Expand the council from five to fifteen members.</li>
<li>Reduce the number of council districts from five to three.</li>
<li>Elect five members in each district using ranked choice voting.</li>
<li>Draw the district lines using an automated process overseen by an independent nonpartisan commission.</li>
</ol>
<p>In this post I discuss why ranked choice voting is a better way to elect five members in each of the three proposed districts.</p>
<h2 id="why-ranked-choice-voting">Why ranked choice voting?</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-rcv-example-ballot.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-rcv-example-ballot-embed.png"
         alt="Example ballot for hypothetical Howard County Council election using ranked choice voting"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>An example marked ballot for a hypothetical Howard County Council West District general election conducted using ranked choice voting. The voter has marked Democratic candidate Alice Doe as her first preference, Emily Zhang of the Green party as her second preference, Democrat Latoya Green as her third preference, and so on. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>If we want to have only three districts, with five members in each, and we don’t want to elect members using at-large voting within each district, how should we elect each district’s members?  My proposal is to use ranked choice voting.</p>
<p>Using ranked choice voting in a multi-member district (like the three districts proposed here) helps ensure that elections are fair for all voters, and that each voter has an equal chance to make their votes matter. It allows voters the option to rank candidates in order of preference: one, two, three, and so forth. If a particular person’s vote cannot help their top choice win, that vote counts for their next choice.</p>
<p>The image above shows a sample ballot for a hypothetical Howard County Council election for the West District (as discussed in a future post) conducted using ranked choice voting. Here the voter, a progressive Democrat, indicated Democrat candidate Alice Doe as being her first preference, but then has marked Emily Zhang of the Green party as her second preference, ahead of the other Democratic candidates. She then marked Democrats Latoya Green and Sanjeev Patel as her third and fourth preferences, and then marked the other candidates as her fifth, sixth, etc., preferences.</p>
<p>Note that there is no requirement that the voter indicate a preference for all six candidates; she could have just stopped after marking her ballot for the three Democratic candidates and Emily Zhang. However, it may be that some of the Republican candidates are more acceptable to her than others, so she may want to give them preference ahead of other candidates. She may also dislike libertarians on general principle, so takes care to mark the Libertarian party candidate as least preferred.</p>
<p>(Note that there are only three Democratic candidates and three Republican candidates on the ballot. You may wonder, why wouldn’t the two parties put forth five candidates each, given that there would be five open seats? That’s because in ranked choice voting it doesn’t make sense for a party to put more candidates on the ballot than that party’s expected share of voters would warrant. I’ll discuss this in more depth in a future post, but will note for now that in this example district Democrats and Republicans are evenly matched.)</p>
<p>In a five-member district like the hypothetical Howard County West District in this example, there would be a 16.7% “quota” for election.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  If more than 16.7% of ballots cast marked a particular candidate as their first preference then that candidate would be automatically elected. Any of those votes that they received from voters in excess of the quota would be transferred to other candidates, more specifically the candidates named by their voters as their second preferences.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>In our example suppose that Democratic candidates Alice Doe and Sanjeev Patel had enough first preference votes to win outright in the first round of county. (In other words, they both got more than a 16.7% share of all first preference votes cast.)  If enough Doe or Patel voters followed our example voter and indicated a second preference vote for Emily Zhang of the Green party, the excess votes for Doe and Patel (i.e., above the quota) could help elect Emily Zhang in the second round of counting, after all excess voters were transferred to other candidates.</p>
<p>More specifically, if Zhang did not have enough votes in the first round of counting to exceed the quota, she might have enough votes in the second round to exceed the quota, by virtue of votes transferred to her because Alice Doe and Sanjeev Patel didn’t need the votes, and their voters marked Zhang as their second preference. Zhang would then be deemed elected in the second round of counting.  (The colloquial term for this is “getting in on transfers.”)</p>
<p>Other candidates could benefit from this as well. For example, if Republican Joe Jones were elected with first preference votes in the first round of counting, and he were the only Republican candidate to be elected in that first round, his excess votes (above the quota) could end up being transferred to Elana Garcia or Christopher Park.</p>
<p>On the other hand, suppose that after excess votes from the first round were transferred to other candidates, there were still no candidates with votes in excess of the 16.7% quota. In that case the candidate with the least amount of votes would be eliminated, and their votes would be transferred to others according to their voters’ preferences. So, for example, if Emily Zhang were in last place after the second round of county, any votes assigned to her after the first round would be transfered to other candidates (probably Democratic candidates) heading into the third round of counting.`</p>
<p>Vote tabulation would proceed in this manner round by round, transferring votes from successful candidates to other candidates, and eliminating last place candidates, until five candidates were elected. (The way in which the quota is defined makes it impossible for more than five candidates to be elected.)</p>
<p>(In some cases voters may not rank all candidates. For example, the voter in the example above may indicate her preferences for Emily Zhang, the Green party candidate, and the three Democratic candidates, but may not indicate her preferences regarding the Republican candidates and Janet Smith, the Libertarian candidate. If so, her ballot will not be considered further once Emily Zhang and the three Democratic candidates are either elected or eliminated; at that point the ballot is said to be “exhausted.”)</p>
<h2 id="promoting-political-and-ideological-diversity">Promoting political and ideological diversity</h2>
<p>In addition to allowing voters to rank candidates from the two major parties according to the voters’ preferences, ranked choice voting also allows voters to vote for third-party candidates without “wasting” their vote. This can be seen in the example above: even if Emily Zhang was eliminated in the second round of counting, the expressed preferences of voters like our example voter could end up helping to elect other candidates in the third or subsequent round.</p>
<p>As another example, suppose that there were a third party associated with the Democratic Socialists of America. That party could run a DSA-backed candidate in a council district with lots of progressive voters, and encourage those voters to give that candidate their first preference. If the DSA-backed candidate were unsuccessful then their first-preference votes would simply transfer to the candidate (most likely a progressive Democrat) that those voters had marked as their second preference, and could then help that candidate be elected.</p>
<p>The same logic works for independent candidates. For example, if a “Never Trump” conservative couldn’t make it through the local GOP primary then they could run for a county council seat as an independent. If their popularity were high enough then they could potentially attract enough first and second preference votes to be elected in their own right. As with the DSA example above, a Republican voter giving such a candidate their first preference would not be “throwing their vote away,” since they could&mdash;and presumably would&mdash;designate the official Republican candidates as their second, third, etc., choices.</p>
<h2 id="promoting-racial-and-ethnic-diversity">Promoting racial and ethnic diversity</h2>
<p>The same dynamic works for promoting racial and ethnic diversity on the council. For example, a Black Democrat running for the council in a district could appeal to Black Democratic voters to give the candidate their first preference votes, and then to give other Democratic candidates their second preference votes. Such a candidate might also attract second or third preferences from conservative Black voters who might give their first preference votes to Republican candidates.</p>
<p>This would allow Black candidates to leverage Black voter support in all three districts, as opposed to having Black voters be concentrated in a single district.</p>
<p>Similarly, a Korean-American Republican candidate might get first preference votes from Korean-American Republican voters, second preference votes from other Republican voters, and second or third preference votes from Korean-American independents or even Democrats who wanted to see some Korean representation on the county council.</p>
<p>To repeat, in none of these cases would voters be “wasting” their votes on a candidate with marginal prospects. They could vote according to their own heart’s desires, secure in the knowledge that their preferences would be reflected in the final results one way or another.</p>
<p>So, let’s assume that we have three council districts with five members each, and that we’d elect those members using ranked choice voting within each district. How could we draw district lines in a way that would reflect the racial, ethnic, and political diversity of Howard County, be open and transparent, and could be justified to the voters and candidates who participate in the resulting elections? That will be the topic of my <a href="/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/">next post</a>.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For more on the topic of ranked choice voting see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.fairvote.org/">FairVote</a> is an advocacy site for ranked choice voting. Its recent report “<a href="https://www.fairvote.org/report_rcv_benefits_candidates_and_voters_of_color">Ranked Choice Voting Elections Benefit Candidates and Voters of Color</a>” and its analysis of the use of <a href="https://www.fairvote.org/rcv_in_new_york_city">ranked choice voting in the 2021 New York City primaries</a> are particularly relevant to my comments above regarding promoting more diversity on the Howard County Council.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.rankedchoicevoting.org/">Ranked Choice Voting Resource Center</a> has more in-depth information, including a detailed discussion of issues relevant to election administrators.</li>
</ul>
<p>For a more detailed discussion of how ranked choice voting might work in the context of a Howard County Council election, see my 2012 post “<a href="/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/">Electing a council that reflects Howard County, part 1</a>” and its <a href="/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-2/">followup post</a>. These were written for the case of electing the five current Howard County Council members by ranked choice voting, but they are also relevant to the problem of electing five council members in a single district of the proposed three. (Note that the posts refer to ranked choice voting using the alternative name “Single Transferable Vote” or “STV.”)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The 16.7% is an approximation. The actual quota would be one-sixth of the total votes cast, plus one (rounded up).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The exact way in which these transfers are done can vary depending on the counting procedures adopted. The specific mechanisms selected can be embodied in the software used to tabulate votes.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A more diverse Howard County needs a more diverse county council</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 21 Sep 2021 08:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/</guid>
      <description>When we expand the Howard County Council let’s make it more reflective of the people it serves.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: When we expand the Howard County Council let’s make it more reflective of the people it serves.</em></p>
<p>[This is part 2 of a seven-part series. See also <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/">part 3</a>, <a href="/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/">part 4</a>, <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a>, <a href="/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/">part 6</a>, and <a href="/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/">part 7</a>. I also wrote a <a href="/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district">follow-up post</a> that can be viewed as an alternative to part 5.]</p>
<p>In my <a href="/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/">previous post</a> I proposed a comprehensive overhaul of the way we elect the Howard County Council:</p>
<ol>
<li>Expand the council from five to fifteen members.</li>
<li>Reduce the number of council districts from five to three.</li>
<li>Elect five members in each district using ranked choice voting.</li>
<li>Draw the district lines using an automated process overseen by an independent nonpartisan commission.</li>
</ol>
<p>In this post I discuss why having three districts is better than having fifteen districts (or no districts at all) when it comes to promoting diversity on the Howard County Council.</p>
<h2 id="why-three-council-districts-why-not-fifteen">Why three council districts? Why not fifteen?</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-15-district-racial-breakdown.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-15-district-racial-breakdown-embed.png"
         alt="Racial/ethnic breakdown by district for an example 15-district Howard County Council"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Racial and ethnic population percentages for each of fifteen Howard County Council districts, based on an example district map generated by the Auto-Redistrict program. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Graph by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Why reduce the number of council districts from five to three? With fifteen council members shouldn’t we have fifteen council districts?</p>
<p>The first problem is that electing one council member in each of fifteen districts can dilute the voting power of minorities. Look at the graph above, which shows the population percentages for various racial and ethnic groups within an example set of fifteen council districts. (The associated district map was drawn by the same automated system described in the next post.)</p>
<p>As of the 2020 Census non-Hispanic Whites make up less then half of Howard County’s population, but they would still form the largest voting bloc in thirteen of the fifteen example districts. There is only one example district in which Blacks would form the largest voting bloc, and only one in which Asians would.</p>
<p>If such a map were to be adopted, and if voters tended to vote for people of their own race or ethnic group, the result would likely be a White-dominated council, similar to what’s been the historical norm in Howard County. It’s possible that there might be only one Black council member out of fifteen (down from one in five currently), and only one Asian council member.</p>
<p>Creative drawing of district lines could “solve” this problem, by lumping minority populations into a few select districts where they might have a chance of electing one of their own. But this would be at the expense of minority voters in other districts. (This is similar to the situation with the current council districts, in which Black candidates have been elected in District 2 but not in any other districts.)</p>
<p>The same techniques used to draw district lines to favor particular racial or ethnic groups also can be&mdash;and have been&mdash;used to favor one political party over another. This brings us to the second problem:</p>
<p>Drawing district lines for fifteen districts is a lot of work compared to drawing them for five districts, and offers more opportunities for partisan gerrymandering and endless political fights over redistricting. The process of Howard County Council redistricting is contentious enough&mdash;I literally <a href="/dividing-howard">wrote the book</a> on this&mdash;so why make it even more divisive and time consuming than it already is? The fewer districts, the less opportunity for gerrymandering.</p>
<p>Howard County originally had five council members representing the entire county, with no councilmanic districts. Howard County now has over three times the population as it did then. So you can think of the proposed scheme as a return to the county council’s roots, with each of the three districts being comparable in population to Howard County fifty years ago, and each district having five council members representing it, just as Howard County as a whole did back then.</p>
<p>But . . . the original Howard County Council elections had a fatal flaw, one which we need not and should not replicate. I discuss that in the next section.</p>
<h2 id="why-not-elect-council-members-at-large">Why not elect council members at-large?</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-15-district-party-breakdown.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-15-district-party-breakdown-embed.png"
         alt="Estimated party vote share by district for an example 15-district Howard County Council"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Estimated vote share for each of the two main political parties for each of fifteen Howard County Council districts, based on an example district map generated by the Auto-Redistrict program. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Graph by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>OK, so having fifteen districts may not be a good idea. Why not eliminate districts altogether, and elect all fifteen council members in county-wide at-large elections? Or have three districts as suggested, with five members chosen in at-large elections in each district? Or have a smaller number of districts (say, nine or ten) and then elect the remaining members at large, similar to how Howard County Board of Education elections work?</p>
<p>The problem here is that at-large elections can entrench the dominance of majorities and work against minorities: since voters can vote for multiple candidates, and the candidates with the most votes win, if a 51% majority votes as a unified bloc for a slate of at-large candidates, they can succeed in having all of their candidates being elected. The 49% minority would then have no representaion at all.</p>
<p>This is not just a theoretical concern. It’s exactly what happened in Howard County in the first years after it moved to a council form of government: Because all five members were elected at-large, and because Democrats formed a majority of voters (in large part due to the establishment and growth of Columbia), the council was dominated by Democrats. In fact, at one point there was no Republican council member at all.</p>
<p>The same thing would happen with an expanded fifteen-member council elected in at-large elections. In fact, it would likely be even worse than in the 1970s because the ratio of registered Democrats to registered Republicans is much larger now.</p>
<p>The push to switch the Howard County Council from at-large elections to elections by district came mainly from the Republican party, because Republicans were under such a disadvantage in at-large elections. But election by districts is not a panacea for Republican concerns, especially when the number of districts is large.</p>
<p>Suppose we abandon the idea of electing fifteen council members in county-wide at-large elections and go back to the idea of electing one council member in each of fifteen districts. Republican candidates would then be severely disadvantaged if we used our hypothetical example set of fifteen districts (which was created by an automated system designed to minimize partisan advantages).</p>
<p>Although there’s a substantial body of Republican voters across the county, as shown in the graph above there is only one district out of the example fifteen districts in which Republican voters would form a clear majority, and only one other district where their numbers would be comparable to Democratic voters. (This is based on estimates derived from the 2018 county council elections.)</p>
<p>If there were only three districts, and members were chosen at-large in each district, the Republican party would still have the problem of majority dominance. There are so many Democrats relative to Republicans that it would probably be possible to draw district lines such that all three districts had Democratic majorities. Using at-large elections to elect five council members within each district would allow those majorities to elect full slates of Democratic candidates in those districts, again locking Republicans out of county council representation.</p>
<p>So if we want to have only three districts, with five members in each, and we don’t want to elect members using at-large voting within each district, how should we elect each district’s members?  That’s the topic of my <a href="/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/">next post</a>.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For the numbers and code behind the graphs above showing the racial, ethnic, and party breakdowns for a hypothetical fifteen districts, as well as the generated fifteen-district map, see “<a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/810474">Howard County Council Expansion, Part 2</a>.”</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A bigger Howard County needs a bigger county council</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 20 Sep 2021 08:15:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/09/20/a-bigger-howard-county-needs-a-bigger-county-council/</guid>
      <description>Let’s expand the Howard County Council to make it more responsive to the larger population it now serves.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: Let’s expand the Howard County Council to make it more responsive to the larger population it now serves.</em></p>
<p>[This is part 1 of a seven-part series. See also <a href="/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/">part 2</a>, <a href="/2021/09/22/a-howard-county-concerned-about-equity-needs-a-more-equitable-way-to-elect-its-county-council/">part 3</a>, <a href="/2021/09/23/a-more-inclusive-howard-county-needs-a-more-inclusive-approach-to-redistricting/">part 4</a>, <a href="/2021/09/24/what-might-a-more-diverse-and-inclusive-howard-county-council-look-like/">part 5</a>, <a href="/2021/09/25/questions-about-my-proposal-for-howard-county-council-redistricting-deserve-answers/">part 6</a>, and <a href="/2021/09/26/final-thoughts-on-my-howard-county-council-redistricting-proposal/">part 7</a>. I also wrote a <a href="/2021/10/02/expanding-the-five-district-howard-county-council-to-three-members-per-district">follow-up post</a> that can be viewed as an alternative to part 5.]</p>
<h3 id="howard-county-is-too-big-for-its-county-council">Howard County is too big for its county council</h3>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-council-15.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-council-15-embed.jpg"
         alt="The last 14 Howard County Council members"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>What might a fifteen-member Howard County Council look like?  Which local political activists might run and be elected? Pictured are the last fourteen Howard County Council members, some of whom went on to hold other offices (from upper left): Greg Fox, Christiana Rigby, Jon Weinstein, Deb Jung, Calvin Ball, Liz Walsh, Guy Guzzone, Allan Kittleman, Mary Kay Sigaty, David Yungmann, Courtney Watson, Opel Jones, Jen Terrasa, and Ken Ulman. (Click for a higher resolution version.)  Images from the Maryland State Archives.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>For over fifty years now Howard County, Maryland, has been governed by a five-member county council and a county executive.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  In those fifty years Howard County has grown from about sixty thousand people to well over three hundred thousand, more than five times as many people as when its first county council was sworn in.</p>
<p>In 2019 the Howard County Charter Review Commission recommended expanding the size of the county council from five members to seven. This was a relatively minor change, but one which seemingly did not attract any support from the county executive, the county council, or&mdash;for that matter&mdash;anybody else. So why am I writing about this topic now?</p>
<p>Because I don’t think the Charter Review Commission was being bold enough in its recommendations. Even <em>I</em> wasn’t being bold enough in <a href="/2020/03/03/a-better-way-to-elect-the-howard-county-council/">my previous post</a> recommending a move to ranked choice voting for either a five- or seven-member council.</p>
<p>I believe that the structure of the County Council needs a more thoroughgoing reform in order to bring it closer to the people of Howard County, better reflect the preferences of county voters, and potentially reduce political polarization that can bleed over into other areas, most notably the Board of Education.</p>
<p>So in line with the motto “go big or go home” I’m coming back with an even bolder four point recommendation:</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p><strong>Triple the size of the Howard County Council</strong>, expanding it from five members to fifteen.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>At the same time, <strong>reduce the number of council districts from five to three</strong>, with five council members elected from each district.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>Elect each district’s council members using ranked choice voting</strong>, in which each voter would list the candidates they want to see elected, in order of preference.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><strong>Establish a nonpartisan commission to draw the district lines</strong> using a process that takes into account various criteria important in redistricting&mdash;creating compact and contiguous districts with equal populations, not diluting the voting power of minorities, and ensuring competitive races not marred by partisan gerrymandering&mdash;with all code, data, and background assumptions made publicly available.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>In this post I address the first part of this proposal, namely expanding the Howard County Council.</p>
<h3 id="why-fifteen-council-members">Why fifteen council members?</h3>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-council-population-per-member.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-council-population-per-member-embed.png"
         alt="Bar chart showing the population per council member or county commissioner for each Maryland county and Baltimore city"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The population per council member or county commissioner for each Maryland county and Baltimore city. (Click for a higher resolution version.)  Graph by Frank Hecker; made available under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">Creative Commons CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Why expand the Howard County Council? First, to provide better service to county residents. When the Howard County Council was first established there was one council member for every twelve thousand people or so. Now each council member serves almost seventy thousand people, a number that makes it more difficult for a council member to attend to the needs of any given constituent.</p>
<p>As the graph above shows, Howard County is in the top five of Maryland juridictions when it comes to population per council member or county commissioner. The average ratio for all Maryland counties and Baltimore city is thirty-six thousand people per member. The median ratio is twenty-two thousand people per council member. (Half of all counties have a higher ratio than the median, and half a lower ratio.)</p>
<p>Note that Baltimore city, despite having a population considerably larger than Howard County, has a ratio of population to council member that is significantly lower than Howard County. That’s because Baltimore city has a fifteen-member city council, compared to Howard County’s five-member county council.</p>
<p>How big should the Howard County Council be? Increasing the council by only two members, as the Charter Review Commission recommended, would in my opinion just be putting a bandage on the problem without really solving it. On the other hand, if we wanted to keep the ratio of constituents to council members the same as in the late 1960s we’d need a council of twenty-five to thirty members. That’s a lot: I’m not sure the council chambers in the George E. Howard building has enough room to hold that many council members.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Let’s consider an intermediate approach, increasing the size of the Howard County from five to fifteen members to match the size of the Baltimore city council. That would lower the ratio of population to council members from the current sixty-six thousand to a third of that value, or twenty-two thousand people per council member. This would match the current median value for Maryland, and be comparable to the ratios for St. Mary’s County and Allegany County.</p>
<p>Of course Howard County is still growing in population, so this ratio would degrade over time. However a fifteen-member council should be large enough to suffice for most if not all of the twenty-first century without requiring any further expansion.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<h3 id="enabling-more-people-to-serve-howard-county">Enabling more people to serve Howard County</h3>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocodems-unity-dinner-2019.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocodems-unity-dinner-2019-embed.jpg"
         alt="Attendees at the Howard County Democrats 2019 Unity Dinner"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>How many people in this room might be viable candidates for a greatly-expanded Howard County Council? Pictured is the Howard County Democrats Unity Dinner, held April 26, 2019. (Click for a higher resolution version.)  Image from the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/howardcountydems">Howard County Democratic Central Committee Facebook page</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Increasing the size of the Howard County Council also provides more opportunities for up-and-coming community activists and politicians to serve the county&mdash;and we have a lot more qualified candidates than there were in the late 1960s. Consider the picture above: of the many Howard County Democratic activists attending this dinner, surely more than a handful would be interested in making a future run for the Howard County Council and would make good candidates and council members.</p>
<p>If we have a lot more people qualified to run for elected positions but the number of positions doesn’t change, that leads to increasingly contentious, expensive, and partisan elections&mdash;something we see in the US at the national level, as more and more people compete for a limited number of Congressional seats.</p>
<p>The large number of qualified candidates can also lead to ostensibly nonpartisan elected positions becoming bones of partisan contention, as with the Howard County Board of Education: thwarted by the lack of openings on the Howard County Council, ambitious political activists can try to use the Board of Education as a springboard to future runs for the county council or other positions.</p>
<p>As a result Board of Education elections may become increasingly partisan affairs, featuring explicit party endorsements and people voting for candidates based primarily on their political affilations. Expanding the county council could help reduce this incentive.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>Let’s assume that there’s a consensus on expanding the Howard County Council, and that having fifteen council members is the desired council size. How should the county be divided into districts, and how should council members from each district be elected? That’s the subject of my <a href="/2021/09/21/a-more-diverse-howard-county-needs-a-more-diverse-county-council/">next post</a>.</p>
<h3 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h3>
<p>For a discussion of the need to expand legislative bodies, in this case the US House of Representatives, see:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/09/opinion/expanded-house-representatives-size.html">America Needs a Bigger House</a>” by the <em>New York Times</em> editorial board.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/05/congress-needs-be-way-way-bigger/611068/">Congress Needs to Be Way, Way Bigger</a>” by David Litt in <em>The Atlantic</em>.</li>
</ul>
<p>For commentary about increasing partisanship in Howard County Board of Education races see:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://scotteblog.com/2020/10/02/will-partisan-politics-make-the-howard-county-public-school-system-no-longer-the-best-in-the-state/">Will Partisan Politics Make The Howard County Public School System No Longer The Best In The State?</a>” by Scott Ewart at <em>Scott E Blog</em>.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.themerriweatherpost.org/post/what-s-at-stake-in-the-increasingly-politicized-howard-county-board-of-education-elections">What’s at Stake in the Increasingly Politicized Howard County Board of Education Elections</a>” by Jeremy Dommu at <em>The Merriweather Post</em>.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/howard/cng-ho-letters-1217-20201216-lzq7cfwh6ndcjkelu5xwmasfoe-story.html">Partisan school board elections erode trust</a>” by Robert Miller (letter to the editors of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>).</li>
</ul>
<p>For the numbers and code behind the graph above showing the population per council member or county commissioner, see “<a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/810352">Howard County Council Expansion, Part 1</a>.”</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Howard County voters approved the county’s becoming a “charter county” with a county council and county executive in November 1968.  The first council took office in early 1969 after a special election.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>However I’ll note that though a county council of 30 members does sound like a lot of people, that large a council is not unprecedented.  As but one example, the city of Belfast in Northern Ireland, which has a population roughly the size of Howard County, has a sixty-member city council.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>As a back of the envelope calculation, if Howard County increases in population by roughly 10% every decade, then by the year 2100 the ratio of population per member would have increased by a factor of just of over two (1.1<sup>8</sup>
 = ~2.14), so the ratio of population per council member would still be well under what it is today.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>Arguably the size of the Board of Education should be increased as well, but that’s an argument for another day.  Increasing the size of the BoE without first increasing the size of the County Council would only increase the incentives for partisans to seek a Board of Education seat.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Remembering Michael McCall, developer of the Chrysalis</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/08/23/remembering-michael-mccall-developer-of-the-chrysalis/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 23 Aug 2021 08:30:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/08/23/remembering-michael-mccall-developer-of-the-chrysalis/</guid>
      <description>On the occasion of Michael McCall’s death I reflect on his signature achievements in Columbia, Maryland.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/michael-mccall-and-the-chrysalis.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/michael-mccall-and-the-chrysalis-embed.jpg"
         alt="Three panel picture showing Michael McCall at the ground-breaking ceremony for the Chrysalis amphitheater, Michael pointing to the newly-installed aluminum panels on the partially-completed Chrysalis, and an evening concert at the Chrysalis, with the structure lighted up"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Left: Michael McCall at the ground-breaking ceremony for the Chrysalis (September 12, 2015). Center: Michael pointing to newly-installed aluminum panels forming the “skin” of the Chrysalis, painted in the amphitheater’s signature green (October 6, 2016). Right: An evening concert, part of the Opus 1 festival, showing the Chrysalis and its structural steel “skeleton” with full theatrical lighting (October 7, 2017). Click for a higher-resolution version. Image © Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: On the occasion of Michael McCall’s death I reflect on his signature achievements in Columbia, Maryland.</em></p>
<p>Two weeks ago I was distressed to learn of the death of Michael McCall.  Although Michael was a long-time resident of Columbia, he was actively involved in Columbia and Howard County affairs for less than six years, from the fall of 2011 to the spring of 2017.</p>
<p>During that time he put forth a new vision for a park in Symphony Woods in downtown Columbia, reigniting excitement about the future of one of the signature places in the county. In his pursuit of that vision Michael left behind two tangible legacies, one architectural and one institutional: the striking green Chrysalis amphitheater that forms the centerpiece of the park, and the Inner Arbor Trust created to oversee the park’s future development.</p>
<p>Beginning in late 2013 I took a personal interest in Michael’s vision for Symphony Woods, and since then have written over a hundred thousand words on his “Inner Arbor” plan, and in particular on the design and construction of the Chrysalis. During those years I also had extensive correspondence with Michael, as he generously shared photos, plans, and other material relating to the Chrysalis and the park for use in my writing.</p>
<p>It was not unusual for me to publish an Inner Arbor- or Chryalis-related post and then shortly thereafter get a call from Michael offering additional information, or providing his own thoughts on how things were going. He also shared with me a fair amount of insider gossip about the various people and organizations involved with the Chrysalis and Inner Arbor plan to one degree or another. (Needless to say I left that material out of my writing, except in those cases where I could independently confirm it from public sources.)</p>
<p>Thus although I can’t provide a full account of Michael’s life and work, I feel more able than most to assess his legacy when it comes to Columbia.</p>
<h2 id="michael-mccall-developer">Michael McCall, developer</h2>
<p>In the title of this post I very deliberately referred to Michael as the “developer” of the Chrysalis, not as the “creator” or a similar term. In Howard County these days the word “developer” has become for many a slur, as they attribute most if not all of the county’s problems, ranging from school overcrowding to traffic congestion to flooding in Ellicott City, to “greedy developers” and their alleged quest to pave over the county in pursuit of profit.</p>
<p>But I think it’s appropriate to call Michael a developer, and I think he would have accepted the designation gladly. He was not responsible for the visual appearance of the Chrysalis, for the design of its structural steel backbone, for the creation of its green aluminum skin, or for the detailed architectural work needed to make it work for its users and visitors. Those responsibilities fell in turn to the New York-based designer Marc Fornes of THEVERYMANY, the international engineering consulting firm Arup, the A. Zahner Company of Kansas City, Missouri, and the Baltimore firm Living Design Lab, the architects of record.</p>
<p>What Michael did was everything else: creating an overall vision and strategy for Symphony Woods, selecting designers and architects for the various components of the Inner Arbor plan, working with and securing funding from various sources, including Howard County and the Columbia Association, taking the project through the Howard County design approval and planning process, overseeing and managing all of the various firms involved in design and construction, and in general working to see these activities through to the successful completion of the Chrysalis and its opening to the general public.</p>
<p>These are exactly the things that developers do. Michael himself started his career working with one of the most well-known and revered American developers, Jim Rouse, who was responsible for the creation and development of Columbia and then later founded the nonprofit Enterprise Foundation (now Enterprise Community Partners) to support the development of affordable housing across the country.</p>
<p>In 1982 Michael left his home state of Minnesota and moved to Columbia to join the Enterprise Development Company, the for-profit subsidiary of the Enterprise Foundation. He worked there for ten years before leaving in 1992 to found his own development consulting firm, Strategic Leisure. In that capacity he worked on a number of development projects across the US and elsewhere in the world&mdash;but never in Maryland, Howard County, or Columbia.</p>
<h2 id="the-inner-arbor-plan-and-the-creation-of-the-chrysalis">The Inner Arbor plan and the creation of the Chrysalis</h2>
<p>Amost twenty years later Michael came to be involved with Symphony Woods, as the Columbia Association was encountering problems with county design and planning authorities in its attempt to develop a park&mdash;an attempt that came after decades of what can best be described as benign neglect of the woods on the part of CA and others.</p>
<p>Michael first appeared in the public record for Columbia with comments during the “Resident Speak Out” period at a Columbia Association board meeting on September 22, 2011. He agreed with the concerns about CA’s Symphony Woods plan expressed by the county’s Design Advisory Panel, and questioned the lack of an overall unifying strategy for developing the park.</p>
<p>Michael’s comments did not go unnoticed. Introduced by his mentor, George Barker, his former manager at the Enterprise Development Company, beginning in 2011 and continuing through 2012 he entered into a series of conversations with various people and entities involved in downtown Columbia development, including Howard County, the Howard Hughes Corporation, I.M.A. (operators of Merriweather Post Pavilion), and the Columbia Association itself.</p>
<p>The result of those conversations was a concept plan for what McCall called the “Inner Arbor” project (punning on Baltimore’s Inner Harbor festival marketplace, one of Jim Rouse’s most famous projects), intended to fulfill the vision expressed in the Howard County General Plan that Symphony Woods become “a new kind of cultural park, where the landscape becomes a setting for arts, cultural and civic uses”. That concept plan was adopted by the Columbia Association Board of Directors on January 24, 2013, as the board abandoned its previous plan for Symphony Woods in response to further hiccups in the Howard County planning process.</p>
<p>Soon afterward the Columbia Association board also decided to establish a separate organization, the Inner Arbor Trust, to implement the previously-adopted concept plan for Symphony Woods, under a perpetual easement from CA. On May 10 the Inner Arbor Trust officially came into existence, with Michael as its first President and CEO.</p>
<p>Things moved fairly quickly after that, at least in comparison to previous Symphony Woods plans. Michael spent the summer selecting a design team for the project, and in November presented the full design team, including designer Marc Fornes, in a public meeting held soon after the fiftieth anniversary of the founding of Columbia. The end of the year saw the public presentation of plans for various park structures, including the Fornes-designed Chrysalis amphitheater.</p>
<p>The year 2014 saw the Inner Arbor Trust receive official 501(c) tax-exempt status (January), the Inner Arbor plan approved by the Howard County Design Advisory Panel (February), submittal to Howard County of a Site Development Plan, including final plans for the Chrysalis (May), and approval of that SDP by the Howard County Planning Board (November)&mdash;just ahead of a November 30 deadline set by the Columbia Association board.</p>
<p>After completing the easement agreement with the Columbia Association in December 2014, the first part of 2015 was taken up in securing further funding for the Chrysalis and negotiating additional legal agreements with various entities, including Howard Hughes Corporation and I.M.A. Actual construction activities for the Chrysalis began in earnest late in the year, after selection of Whiting-Turner as general contractor and A. Zahner Company as “design-build” contractor for the Chrysalis shell, and the official groundbreaking ceremony on September 22.</p>
<p>2016 saw the bulk of Chrysalis construction, including completion of
the concrete “subfloor” (April and May), erection of the steel “skeleton” (completed in August), installation of the ZEPPS panels intended to support the aluminum “skin” (completed in October), and installation of the green skin panels themselves (completed in late 2016 or early 2017).</p>
<p>On April 22, 2017, the Chrysalis amphitheater, was officially dedicated and opened to the general public, and on May 1 Michael officially stepped down as President and CEO of the Inner Arbor Trust. (He was succeeded by Nina Basu, former general counsel of the Trust.)  Michael went on to work on other development projects elsewhere, but his work in Columbia was done.</p>
<h2 id="the-institutional-legacy">The institutional legacy</h2>
<p>As noted above, Michael’s tangible legacy in Columbia can be divided into two parts: the Inner Arbor Trust and the Chrysalis amphitheater.</p>
<p>The creation of the Inner Arbor Trust resolved a long-standing problem, namely the relative inaction and inertia of the Columbia Association when it came to downtown Columbia in general and Symphony Woods in particular. Despite multiple attempts beginning in the 1990s to interest it in enhancing Symphony Woods as a community park for downtown, the CA board declined to take any action.</p>
<p>After the Columbia Association board did get around to proposing a plan for a Symphony Woods park, only to run into trouble with Howard County planning authorities, Michael provided them with both an alternative plan and an alternative way of getting that plan implemented, namely putting Symphony Woods development under the effective control of an independent nonprofit organization.</p>
<p>The success of that approach speaks for itself: in addition to successfully completing construction of the Chrysalis, under the continuing leadership of Nina Basu the Inner Arbor Trust has maintained and enhanced the park’s natural setting and has worked to attract visitors to the park, both through programming at the Chrysalis and such seemingly simple (but apparently never previously considered) steps as putting picnic tables in Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>The Trust has also continually evolved its plans for Symphony Woods to reflect budget and other realities (including in particular creating a revised concept plan), and in general has worked in conjunction with other stakeholders to enhance the overall appeal of the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood (as Howard County planning documents refer to it).</p>
<h2 id="the-architectural-legacy">The architectural legacy</h2>
<p>The Chrysalis is a beautiful and striking structure, to my mind the most distinctive piece of architecture in Howard County, surpassing Merriweather Post Pavilion and the former Rouse Company headquarters turned Whole Foods Market (both I think overrated in retrospect because of their association with Frank Gehry).</p>
<p>It’s also becoming a very useful one. I once had a local politician express concern to me that the Chrysalis might end up as a “green elephant,” but I think it’s safe to say that that will not be the case. That’s in large part due to the work of the Inner Arbor Trust in encouraging and hosting a wide variety of local programming, from yoga classes and kid’s activities to celebrations of the cultures of Howard County’s diverse population.</p>
<p>Although Merriweather Post Pavilion has traditionally been thought of as Columbia’s main cultural venue, its size makes it much more suited for nationally-known touring acts and other events drawing audiences from across the entire Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. For events targeted at a more local or more niche audience the Chrysalis is a much more suitable venue, more intimate and approachable.</p>
<p>As a result the Chrysalis is well on its way to becoming a beloved local landmark, a gathering place for the entire community, and a symbol of the evolving downtown of Columbia.</p>
<h2 id="the-intangible-legacy">The intangible legacy</h2>
<p>Like Jim Rouse, Michael’s reach exceeded his grasp. Jim Rouse sought to create a “new American city,” a “garden for the growing of people,” but a poor US economy in the 1970s and overall trends in society left Columbia as just a somewhat more diverse example of a typical American suburban bedroom community.</p>
<p>Similarly Michael had a vision of an arts and culture park in Symphony Woods worthy of comparison with Millennium Park in Chicago or Tivoli Gardens in Denmark, featuring the work of a host of world-class architects, designers, and artists&mdash;a park that could attract visitors from across the metropolitan area and even from elsewhere on the Eastern seaboard.</p>
<p>That dream was not and likely will not be fulfilled. Howard County is one of the wealthiest counties in the United States. However it has neither the concentrated private wealth that has funded signature parks elsewhere in the US (for example, the new Barry Diller-funded Little Island park in New York City) nor the governmental budget capacity to make up for the lack of private funding&mdash;especially given more pressing problems like the COVID-19 pandemic and flooding in Ellicott City.</p>
<p>Mindful of such realities and preferring things as they are, many residents of Columbia and Howard County, and more than a few community activists and local politicians, have been content to honor Columbia’s past while accepting a diminished future for it, simply tending the embers of a dying legacy.</p>
<p>In his desire to “make no little plans” Michael refused to believe that the best days of Columbia were behind it. He promoted a vision for Symphony Woods that could inspire a new generation, and in the Inner Arbor Trust and the Chrysalis gave us the first fruits of that vision. We can best honor his memory by keeping that vision in mind, and carrying on the work of creating a new park for Symphony Woods that he so determinedly began.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from my <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis/">“Creating the Chrysalis” series</a>, including in particular the post on Michael’s <a href="/2015/11/01/creating-the-chrysalis-vision-and-strategy/">vision and strategy for Symphony Woods park development</a>, and the post containing a complete <a href="/2017/06/03/creating-the-chrysalis-timeline/">timeline of events relating to the Chrysalis and Symphony Woods</a>.</p>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and the development of Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised; for the very latest plans for the park see the article “<a href="/2020/12/12/a-new-plan-for-symphony-woods/">A new plan for Symphony Woods</a>.”</p>
<p>For more on Michael’s life and work see the <a href="https://strategicleisure.com/">Strategic Leisure web site</a>. The <a href="https://strategicleisure.com/chrysalis-merriweather-park">Chrysalis and Merriweather Park page</a> in particular has a lot of interesting material on how Michael himself saw his work in Symphony Woods.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>No more “Civility and Truth”</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2021/06/19/no-more-civility-and-truth/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 19 Jun 2021 09:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2021/06/19/no-more-civility-and-truth/</guid>
      <description>I’m renaming my blog and closing down my Substack newsletter.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: I’m renaming my blog and closing down my Substack newsletter.</em></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/frank-hecker-banner.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/frank-hecker-banner-embed.jpg"
         alt="A copy of the revised banner for my web site, showing a (fake) license plate reading FHECKER, a Howard County Library System Choose Civility bumper sticker, and a bumper sticker reading I (heart) EC."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Changing a website name is easy, but doing a whole new banner is hard. So I elected to keep the old banner and just change the text of the (fake) license plate. (Click for a higher resolution version.).</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Bloggers can write articles for their blogs, or they can fiddle about with the technical underpinnings of the blog itself&mdash;with the latter often serving as a substitute for the former. So it is with me: the writing I’ve been doing is not writing that will show up on this blog any time soon (or perhaps ever), so instead I’m doing something I’ve thought about doing for a while, namely renaming the website to use my own name and domain.</p>
<p>My reasons for doing this are pretty straightforward. My goal as a blogger remains to write in a way that upholds the ideals of civility and truth: civility to all, including those with whom I might disagree, and the truth as I can best determine it, even when it’s not to my liking. However in these polarized times actually putting the words “civility” and “truth” in a website name invites mild skepticism at best and cynical sneers at worst.</p>
<p>I could rename the website to something more stirring and of the moment, as for example the Howard County Library System did when they “sunset” their “<a href="http://choosecivility.org/">choose civility</a>” campaign and rebranded under the more pugnacious slogan “<a href="http://hclibrary.org/brave-voices-brave-choices/">brave voices, brave choices</a>.”</p>
<p>But in the end I concluded that it would be better just to use my personal domain frankhecker.com that I already use for my email address. The zeitgeist might change, but I’ll be “Frank Hecker” as long as I’m here to write.</p>
<p>If you’ve bookmarked old articles or linked to them, rest assured: URLs referencing the old domain name civilityandtruth.com will still work fine, and your browser will be redirected to the same place on the renamed site. (Incidentally, my ability to implement this is one of the advantages of maintaining my own platform rather than relying on someone else’s.)</p>
<p>Finally, as part of this renaming I’ve also decided to suspend my newsletter at civilityandtruth.substack.com. I never used that newsletter for its stated purpose, namely sending out alerts of new articles on my main blog, and the articles I posted there were things I could have just as well as posted here. So I thought it best to consolidate my online writing to a single website, one that I control (see above).</p>
<p>If you want to get notified of new articles you can either follow me on Twitter (<a href="https://twitter.com/hecker">@hecker</a>) or use a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_aggregator">news reader</a> and point it to this site’s RSS feed (<a href="https://frankhecker.com/feed.xml">https://frankhecker.com/feed.xml</a>). (If you already have a news reader pointing to this site, it should continue to work. However you may want to resubscribe using the new URL.)</p>
<p>Thanks to all of you who come to this site from time to time. I’m sorry there hasn’t been much for you to read here lately, and hope I’ll be able to remedy that in future.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Civility and Truth newsletter (obsolete)</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/subscribe/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 19 Jun 2021 09:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/subscribe/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In an effort to compensate for my infrequently updating this blog, in
2019 I created a &lt;a href=&#34;https://civilityandtruth.substack.com&#34;&gt;Civility and Truth newsletter&lt;/a&gt; on the Substack
platform. I never really used the site for the original purpose I
envisioned, namely alerting people to new posts on this site. Instead
I used it to send out articles that I really should have been posting
to this site. But lately I haven’t been any more diligent in sending
out new posts than I have been in updating this site.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In an effort to compensate for my infrequently updating this blog, in
2019 I created a <a href="https://civilityandtruth.substack.com">Civility and Truth newsletter</a> on the Substack
platform. I never really used the site for the original purpose I
envisioned, namely alerting people to new posts on this site. Instead
I used it to send out articles that I really should have been posting
to this site. But lately I haven’t been any more diligent in sending
out new posts than I have been in updating this site.</p>
<p>I’ve therefore decided to deprecate the newsletter and go back to
posting articles only to this site. If you want to be alerted to new
posts, follow me on Twitter (@hecker).</p>
<p>I won’t be posting anything else to the Civility and Truth Substack
site, but I will keep it online for the foreseeable future for the
benefit of folks linking to old posts.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A new plan for Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2020/12/12/a-new-plan-for-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 12 Dec 2020 09:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2020/12/12/a-new-plan-for-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>The Inner Arbor Trust is revising its plans for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods to reflect new realities.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/iat-revised-concept-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/iat-revised-concept-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="The revised concept plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, showing the proposed bridges into the park for improved access from the northeast, east, and south, the proposed expanded pathway system, and proposed new structures.  (Click for a higher resolution version.)  Image © 2020 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The revised concept plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, showing the proposed bridges into the park for improved access from the northeast, east, and south, the proposed expanded pathway system, and proposed new structures.  (Click for a higher resolution version.)  Image © 2020 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: The Inner Arbor Trust is revising its plans for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods to reflect new realities.</em></p>
<p>In April 2017 the Chrysalis amphitheater in downtown Columbia, Maryland, was opened to the public as the first element of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.  The amphitheater was built by the Inner Arbor Trust, the nonprofit organization created to manage and develop the Symphony Woods property under a perpetual easement from the Columbia Association, the property owner.</p>
<p>Since then the Inner Arbor Trust has promoted and hosted a set of free events at the Chrysalis and hosted other events in the park, while at the same time planning for further development of the park, based on the so-called “Inner Arbor” plan.  The Inner Arbor Trust is now proposing a revision to that plan, and recently held a briefing for the boards of directors of the Trust and the Columbia Association.</p>
<p>The Merriweather Post posted a good <a href="https://www.themerriweatherpost.org/post/columbia-s-central-park-the-inner-arbor-trust-plan-for-symphony-woods">overview of the revised concept plan</a>, so I won’t recap it in detail in this post.  Instead I want to explore the factors I think are driving the revision and comment on the various elements of the plan.</p>
<p><em>Note: While I have been a long-time supporter of the Inner Arbor Trust and its plans for Symphony Woods, I have no formal affiliation with the Inner Arbor Trust, the Columbia Association, or any other of the organizations that are or might become involved with park planning.  This post contains my personal opinions, and is based solely on the slide presentation and briefing video released to the general public by the Inner Arbor Trust.</em></p>
<h2 id="new-realities-new-plans">New realities, new plans</h2>
<p>This revised concept plan is the latest of three attempts to develop Symphony Woods as a park.  Before discussing the new plan, let’s briefly review how we got here:</p>
<p>For forty years the Symphony Woods property was little more than a relatively neglected piece of land over which people traveled by car or on foot to get to Merriweather Post Pavilion, which it surrounds.  Finally in 2008 the Columbia Association began planning for a park in Symphony Woods and, after an initial plan met with criticism during the Howard County planning process, adopted the Inner Arbor plan (referred to by some as the “McCall plan,” after its creator Michael McCall).</p>
<p>In 2013 the newly-established Inner Arbor Trust further expanded and refined the Inner Arbor plan, took it through the 16-step county approval process in 2014, and successfully built the Chrysalis amphitheater as the first step in creating the newly-named Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>Why is the Inner Arbor Trust now considering revising the existing approved plan?  As an outside observer I can see at least three realities with which the Trust must contend.</p>
<p>First, the economic reality: As currently approved the Inner Arbor plan is a very ambitious plan, with a estimated price tag well into the eight digits just for the first phase.  Although Howard County is a relatively wealthy county, it lacks the concentration of great individual or corporate wealth (e.g., in the form of a billionaire or Fortune 100 company) that in other locales has provided the bulk of funding for world-class public parks.</p>
<p>The COVID-19 pandemic has further strained the finances of those entities that might be candidates for funding Merriweather Park development.  An anticipated slow economic recovery from the pandemic, coupled with a possible recession in the coming decade, would likely make it difficult to impossible to fully develop Symphony Woods as envisioned in the current plan.</p>
<p>The economic reality then influences the political reality: the Inner Arbor Trust will need support from as many as possible of the people and organizations who can influence funding decisions.  It’s no accident that the new concept plan presentation begins with a list of all the stakeholders whom the Trust has consulted in the process of deciding on a plan revision.</p>
<p>This includes the Columbia Association in particular, since its approval is needed for any changes to the park plans.  The Columbia Association is also currently involved in an legal dispute with the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission, owner of Merriweather Post Pavilion, and the tenor of that relationship may constrain the form of any future park development.  (See the discussion below.)</p>
<p>Finally, priorities for park development have arguably been changed by the progress of the Howard Hughes Corporation’s development of the Merriweather District, including completion of Merriweather Drive and Symphony Woods Road bordering Symphony Woods on the west, south, and east, completion of the multi-use pathway next to those roads, and completion (or impending completion) of office, residential, and retail developments along Merriweather Drive.</p>
<h2 id="the-park-and-the-pedestrian">The park and the pedestrian</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/iat-bridge-locations.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/iat-bridge-locations-embed.jpg"
         alt="Locations of the proposed bridges into Symphony Woods from Merriweather Drive and Symphony Woods Road respectively"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Left: The proposed location for a 290-foot pedestrian bridge from the multi-use pathway on the north side of Merriweather Drive to Dennis Lane southeast of Merriweather Post Pavilion.  (The bridge would terminate near the pickup truck in the background.)  Right: The proposed location for a 78-foot pedestrian bridge from the sidewalk on the east side of Symphony Woods Road to the rear of the Chrysalis.  (The bridge would terminate near the metal posts just to the left of the Chrysalis.)  (Click for a higher resolution version.)  Image © 2020 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Although Symphony Woods was designated as public open space from the very beginning of Columbia, making it fully accessible to the general public was not a major priority for most of its existence.  Until recently there were only two pedestrian access points to the park, both intended primarily for getting people to and from Merriweather Post Pavilion: one pathway from Little Patuxent Parkway to the west gate of the pavilion, and a second pathway to the south of the pavilion leading from the then-undeveloped land used for parking during events.</p>
<p>Once within Symphony Woods there were no pedestrian pathways providing access to the other parts of the property.  Visitors had to walk along the bare ground next to the fence surrounding the pavilion, walk on the sides of roads providing vehicular access to the Merriweather VIP parking lot and the backstage area, or take their chances on a turned ankle or an encounter with thorns by striking out into the woods to the east and south of the pavilion.</p>
<p>The original Inner Arbor plan partially rectified that lack, proposing a set of pathways in the northern part of Symphony Woods that would provide enhanced access from Little Patuxent Parkway back to the Chrysalis.  However that plan provided nothing for the southern part of Symphony Woods, at least in the first phase.</p>
<p>Now that it’s possible to walk all the way around the park on the new multi-use pathways, that lack of pathways into and within the park has become quite glaring: walkers on Merriweather Road near the intersection with Hickory Ridge Road confront a set of guardrails and then a steep drop into a creek valley, while walkers on the sidewalk on the west side of Symphony Woods Road find a steep upslope broken only by a one-lane access road (Chrysalis Drive) intended for cars and trucks, and then a less steep drop into a second creek valley.</p>
<p>There are now a new staircase and ramp leading from Merriweather Drive down to the previous path leading to Merriweather Post Pavilion.  However, walkers seeking to go into the park proper still face a lack of pathways if they want to explore the creek and lake area to the south of the pavilion, or must take another steep hike up Dennis Lane if they want to go to the Chrysalis.</p>
<p>The revised concept plan proposes a set of new gateways into the park, along with an expanded set of pathways once you get into the park.  Going clockwise from the western side of Merriweather Drive, these are as follows:</p>
<p>Southwest gateway: This proposed entrance point is not from Merriweather Drive itself, but under it, along the creek that runs below a bridge just south of the intersection with Hickory Ridge Road.  As such it would provide a nice link into the park from what will be preserved open space between Hickory Ridge Road and the Juniper apartment complex.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  The pathway from that point would then lead into the park to a short (45-foot) “hidden bridge” spanning the creek just south of the pavilion fence line.</p>
<p>Southern gateway: This is the most striking proposed gateway, consisting of a 290-foot pedestrian bridge carrying park visitors from the multi-use pathway along Merriweather Drive over the creek and onto a pathway next to Dennis Lane.  (See above for the approximate location.)  In the revised concept plan this bridge is shown alongside the existing path to the pavilion, including the staircase, ramp, and wooden bridge over the creek.  However, the bridge would save visitors the hike down a couple of dozen feet to the creek and back up again, improving accessibility of the pavilion from the south, and could also provide access to ADA-compliant pathways within the park itself.  Thus it can also be seen as a potential replacement for the current southern entrance.</p>
<p>Eastern gateway: This proposed gateway includes a shorter (78-foot) bridge from the sidewalk next to Symphony Woods Road over a second creek to the rear of the Chrysalis amphitheater.  (See above for the approximate location.)  If this were to be combined with a suitable crosswalk on Symphony Woods Road, it would provide a very convenient and accessible connection between the Chrysalis and the proposed New Cultural Center on the current site of Toby’s Dinner Theatre.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Northeast gateway: This would include yet another bridge, this one 150 feet long, leading from the northeast corner of the park at Little Patuxent Parkway.  This bridge would take the place of a boardwalk proposed in the current Inner Arbor plan, carrying visitors over the second creek and into an expanded set of pathways north of the Chrysalis.</p>
<p>Western gateway: I’ve left this one for last because it does not involve an expansion of pedestrian access, but rather a refinement of the access that already exists.  As one of the presenters remarked during the briefing, this area (at the intersection of Merriweather Drive and Divided Sky Lane) is if anything over-supplied with paved access roads and pathways.</p>
<p>The problem is not therefore to provide access where there was none, but to make this area more visibly a part of the park and more welcoming to people walking into it.  The revised concept plan proposes to rectify this by providing a terraced landscape that includes play spaces for children and a visitors center with restrooms.</p>
<p>The topic of restrooms leads us into the next section.</p>
<h2 id="the-park-and-the-pavilion">The park and the pavilion</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/iat-pavilion-boundary.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/iat-pavilion-boundary-embed.jpg"
         alt="Dual-use restroom building between Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion, along with the fence separating the park and pavilion"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Left: The restroom building located on the southeastern boundary between Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion, designed to be alternately accessible from either property.  Right: The fence separating the northern portion of the park from the pavilion, with the historic farm structures on the pavilion side.  (Click for a higher resolution version.)  Image © 2020 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Since the 2000s a common theme in planning for downtown Columbia has been the need to consider the combined Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods properties as a single whole, what the Downtown Columbia Plan dubs the “Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood.”  In accordance with this approach Howard County planning authorities encouraged greater integration of activities, uses, and design features between Merriweather Post Pavilion and any park developed in Symphony Woods.  (Among other things, this was one of the key recommendations the Howard County Planning Board made with respect to the Columbia Association’s original plan for a park.)</p>
<p>The current Inner Arbor plan takes this recommendation to heart, and proposes eliminating the existing fence between the Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods properties (at least along the northern boundary), incorporating the existing historic buildings and pathways within the pavilion as a shared area between the pavilion and park (perhaps with a fountain).  Instead of a fence the Inner Arbor plan proposes controlling access to the pavilion via a long cylindrical structure, the Caterpillar, acting as an artificial berm separating the northernmost portion of the park from the area shared with the pavilion, and providing infrastructure for events within the park.</p>
<p>For various reasons the Caterpillar has always been one of the most controversial elements in the Inner Arbor plan.  But beyond any concerns previously expressed, one major problem with the Caterpillar is that it assumes a very high degree of cooperation between the respective property owners and managers, cooperation that may be beyond the desire and ability of the various parties to sustain.</p>
<p>The revised concept plan, perhaps following the dictum that “good fences make good neighbors,” deletes the Caterpillar and proceeds on the linked assumptions that there will continue to be a fence between the two properties, and that visitors to the park would normally be locked out of the pavilion.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>This has various implications, beginning with the western gateway discussed above.  The revised concept plan proposes constructing a small visitors center here, perhaps in the spirit of the original Exhibit Center built by the Rouse Company to welcome prospective Columbia residents.  Whether or not that’s the case, the practical use of this structure would be to provide restrooms for visitors on the west side of the park&mdash;since the Merriweather Post Pavilion restrooms would be locked away behind the fence.</p>
<p>In the revised plan that fence would itself be either replaced or overlaid with a new fence, designed to be more aesthetically pleasing and to provide park visitors at least partial screening of the ice machines, golf carts, and other Merriweather Post Pavilion fixtures currently visible on the other side of the fence.  Based on the slides in the revised concept plan presentation, the proposed fence could use wooden pickets spaced closely together, providing a visual tie-in with similar pickets used for railings at the Chrysalis.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>That would take care of the west and east sides of the fence, next to the western gateway and the Chrysalis respectively.  In between, on the northern portion of the fence, the revised concept plan attempts to solve a problem and create an opportunity.</p>
<p>Because the area just north of the fence is heavily used by vendors and others during Wine in the Woods and similar events held in the park, alternative infrastructure to that within Merriweather Post Pavilion must be provided to support merchandise booths, food and drink stalls, and the like.</p>
<p>The revised concept plan addresses this need via a proposed covered walkway or colonnade located next to the fence, running east-west along what the plan terms the “Ridgeline.”  This colonnade could be used for vendor stalls, for public art, or simply as a quick and easy way to get from the western gateway to the Chrysalis without having to take a longer route over other park pathways.</p>
<p>The plan further proposes locating a stage in the middle of this colonnade, providing the opportunity for small-scale performances either standalone or as part of larger events.  For events that use both properties, gates in the fence on either side of the stage would open to provide free access for event-goers crossing between them, without their having to walk all the way to the east or west pavilion entrances.</p>
<p>Continuing clockwise, just as on the west side of the park there is a need for restrooms on the east side of the park near the Chrysalis.  Currently that need is served by a temporary restroom located next to the historic building housing the Merriweather Post Pavilion staff.</p>
<p>However that temporary facility will be replaced at some point by a new restroom designed to alternately allow access to either park or pavilion visitors, depending on whether events are being held in Merriweather Park Pavilion or not.  (Since visitors will be allowed in the park during most Merriweather Post Pavilion events, they would still need to be accomodated during those times; presumably the proposed visitor center restrooms would fill that need.)</p>
<h2 id="priorities-and-pitfalls">Priorities and pitfalls</h2>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/iat-park-structures.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/iat-park-structures-embed.jpg"
         alt="Park structures in the revised concept plan: gazebo, Nest, and east and west pavilions"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Clockwise from top left: The proposed gazebo in the northeastern section of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, the Nest in the southern part of the park near the Merriweather Post Pavilion backstage area, and the eastern and western pavilions in the northern part of the park.  (Click for a higher resolution version.)  Image © 2020 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Overall I think the revised concept plan does a good job of addressing the realities that development of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods will need to deal with going forward.  However there are still decisions to be made regarding priorities in proceeding with the next phases of development, as well as potential pitfalls along the way.</p>
<p>In terms of priorities, the first order of business is to complete the already planned and funded pathways in the northern section of the park.  The first portion of this pathway system has recently been completed, and provides pedestrian access from Little Patuxent Parkway into the northeastern portion of the park and from there to the Chrysalis.  The next portion of this pathway system will extend the current pathway system further west into the northwestern section of the park.  When completed this pathway system will help address the needs of events like Wine in the Woods.</p>
<p>What will the next park improvements be after that? That will I think depend on higher-level priorities.  I see two general ways to go:</p>
<p>The first is to prioritize the needs of events like Wine in the Woods that use the northern part of the park.  For example, this might drive earlier construction of the above-mentioned colonnade and stage running along the northern boundary of Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>The second approach would be to serve the needs of the new Merriweather District developments to the south of the park.  For example, constructing pathways along the lake might encourage residents and workers from those buildings to explore the park’s southern reaches and build more awareness of and support for further proposed park developments like the southern gateway.</p>
<p>There are also potential pitfalls along the way.  Soliciting support from as many organizations as possible will help with fundraising and gaining financial support from Howard County and the state of Maryland.  However it also invites potential micromanaging of park development in a way that may detract from the overall vision for the park.</p>
<p>For example, the Downtown Columbia Plan envisions the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood as “a new kind of cultural park . . . a setting for arts, cultural and civic uses.”  Taking its cue from this, the Inner Arbor Trust advertises Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods as a place where “where arts, culture, and community come together.”</p>
<p>However now that more residents and workers are moving into the Merriweather District and nearby areas, they may be looking for more conventional park features for recreational and other uses.  As but two examples, in the concept plan briefing Virginia Thomas of the Columbia Association board discussed putting a bocce court in the park, and I can also see some local residents lobbying for a dog park&mdash;there’s already an area next to the multi-use pathway along Merriweather Drive with signs directed at dog owners.</p>
<p>Many if not all of these other uses may be ruled out by existing easements and agreements.  However they may nonetheless end up distracting from the work needed to realize the park as one devoted to art and culture.</p>
<p>Speaking of art, and the art of architecture in particular, another area of difficulty may be realizing a high degree of design excellence for the park’s various features.  In architecture there is sometimes a trade-off between aesthetics and practicality, and better-looking structures are typically more expensive to build and maintain.  I can see designs like those presented in the concept plan for the gazebo, the Nest, and the two pavilions (see above) possibly being compromised in the interests of saving money and serving more utilitarian purposes.  (Again, an example: in the concept plan briefing Alan Klein of the CA board suggested that the gazebo be redesigned to shelter park visitors from the rain.)</p>
<p>Thus although I think adoption of the revised concept plan would significantly increase the chances of completing the development of Merriweather Part at Symphony Woods according to the vision in the Downtown Columbia Plan and the Inner Arbor Trust mission statement, realizing that vision will still require much work and attention.  As refinement of the plan continues I hope to be here to chronicle accomplishments and promote further progress.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For more information on the revised concept plan see the <a href="https://youtu.be/4td1A7HgFTU">video recording</a> of the briefing to the Inner Arbor Trust and Columbia Association boards, and the accompanying <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Q3G1jGVQWm1302F6NZIrUCAGrdUcnhcq/view?usp=sharing">slide presentation</a> [PDF].  For a briefer overview see the Merriweather Post article “<a href="https://www.themerriweatherpost.org/post/columbia-s-central-park-the-inner-arbor-trust-plan-for-symphony-woods">Columbia’s ‘Central Park’: The Inner Arbor Trust Plan for Symphony Woods</a>.”</p>
<p>For more information on the various attempts over the years to develop Symphony Woods as a park, see my <a href="/2015/10/25/creating-the-chrysalis-symphony-woods/">history of Symphony Woods</a> and an accompanying <a href="/2017/06/03/creating-the-chrysalis-timeline/">timeline of events</a> up through May 2017, as well as my other <a href="/tags/innerarbor">posts on the Inner Arbor plan</a>.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The revised concept plan shows another park pathway terminating near the Merriweather Road bridge just south of the intersection with Dennis Lane.  It’s not clear if this is intended to enable a future connection to the open space on the other side of Merriweather Drive: the bridge over that creek has significantly less headroom for pedestrians walking underneath it.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>This is of course assuming that the New Cultural Center actually gets built.  As of the time of writing its future is uncertain, dependent on approval of financing arrangements by the Howard County Council.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>This doesn’t preclude the possibility of events like the Capital Jazz Fest that use both properties.  However in those cases access to the combined properties would be controlled, with casual visitors not allowed in.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>One of the creators of the revised concept plan is Living Design Lab of Baltimore, also the architect for the Chrysalis, so this is an approach they’ve used before.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Electing the Howard County Board of Education by districts makes no sense</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2020/05/15/electing-the-howard-county-board-of-education-by-districts-makes-no-sense/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 15 May 2020 00:20:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2020/05/15/electing-the-howard-county-board-of-education-by-districts-makes-no-sense/</guid>
      <description>Yes, this is another post promoting ranked choice voting.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: Yes, this is another post promoting ranked choice voting.</em></p>
<p>Like other registered voters in Howard County, I recently received my postal ballot for the 2020 presidential primary. Some of the decisions I have to make are easy (yes, I’ll vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee for President) while others are hard (gee, there are a lot of Democratic candidates for the US House of Representatives, and I have no idea who most of them are). And then there’s the question of who I should vote for in the Howard County Board of Education election.</p>
<p>In recent days there have been posts on the Board of Education race by Jenny Solpietro and Jason Booms, both progressive Democrats, commenting directly or indirectly on the lack of BoE candidates in District 5 that match their own political views. If you’re a progressive Democrat in District 5 then presumably no one you like will end up representing you on the BoE. This is reminiscent of past complaints by conservative Republicans living in (say) County Council District 2 that there was little to no chance of their being represented by someone who shared their own views.</p>
<p>These complaints support my firm opinion that electing Board of Education members (or County Council members) by district makes no sense. Why, do you ask?</p>
<p>First, it causes the problem we see in the current Board of Education race and past County Council races: if your views are at odds with the majority of people in your district, you don’t have a realistic chance of electing someone who reflects your views.</p>
<p>Second, in my opinion electing members by district does not do a very good job of what it was originally justified as doing, namely giving people more of a say in what happens in their “local” schools, i.e., schools in their part of the county. That’s because the district boundaries are arbitrary divisions.</p>
<p>For example, in past times the boundary line between District 1 and District 5 ran down the middle of the street in front of my house. If someone moved across the street to a different Board of Education district, would their concerns as a voter, a taxpayer, and a current or future parent of school-age children change in any significant way?</p>
<p>No, because they’d still be Howard County residents and taxpayers, and they’d still be dealing with a county-wide school system with a single budget, curriculum, and set of policies. The schools that their children attended (or would attend in future) probably also wouldn’t change, since the Board of Education districts are based on County Council districts and don’t necessarily have any relation at all to how HCPSS draws its own district boundaries.</p>
<p>Third, electing BoE members by district ignores the other ways in which voters might differ in their interests, beyond just the part of the county they happen to live in. For example, suppose that you have an interest in seeing more advanced math and science classes, or more funding for arts programs, or increased choices for vocational education, or you have concerns about disorderly classroom environments, or want more attention paid to issues around social justice and equity, or in general have strong opinions concerning any of a host of other issues that might arise in running a large public school system.</p>
<p>Electing members by districts may do little or nothing to ensure that your views are represented on the Board of Education: while there may be a lot of people across the county who share your views, there may be few like-minded individuals within the district you happen to live in.</p>
<p>So, what would be a better approach? The first step would be to abandon election by districts as a well intentioned approach that unfortunately does not address the true problems of representing the views of a diverse county population, and go back to electing <em>all</em> Board of Education members on a county-wide basis. (Under the current scheme only two at-large members are elected county-wide.)</p>
<p>But we can’t stop there. Using the traditional way of electing Board of Education members has its own set of problems. If we simply count the votes for each candidate and elect the five (or seven, or whatever) people with the most number of votes, then we run the risk of having minority views not be represented at all:</p>
<p>If 51% of voters think one way, and 49% of voters another way, the 51% of voters will vote for their preferred candidates and the 49% will vote for their (different) candidates. The result will be that the 51% of voters will get all of their candidates elected, and the other 49% will have no one on the Board of Education representing their views.</p>
<p>(Incidentally, the roles of the majority and the minority can vary. In the past this approach of electing the top set of candidates was used in many US jurisdictions as a way to systematically suppress the votes of African Americans&mdash;who would always be a minority in a city- or county-wide election&mdash;and elect all-white city or county councils. As a different example, in Howard County in the 1970s electing county council members at large resulted in Democratic dominance of the council, with no Republicans at all elected to the council at one point.)</p>
<p>So what’s the alternative? The alternative is to combine county-wide election of Board of Education members with a voting scheme that better takes into account the full range of voters’ interests, by allowing them to rank candidates in order of preference. I’ve previously written about this “ranked choice” scheme in the context of Howard County Council elections, proposing it to the Charter Review Board and then addressing various follow-up questions about it.</p>
<p>I want to particularly focus on how ranked choice voting can actually do a better job of providing “local” representation on the Board of Education than election by districts:</p>
<p>Suppose you live in (say) Elkridge and think that that area of the county has been neglected by the Board of Education and the Howard County Public School System. Even though in the scheme I’ve proposed the candidates would be running county-wide, nothing would prevent a candidate from running as the “champion of northeast Howard”. This candidate could then be elected as follows:</p>
<p>First, people living in that area could designate that candidate as their first preference. Note that in doing so it wouldn’t matter exactly where these voters live: there would be no artificial district boundary dividing Elkridge from Ellicott City, for example, such if you live just on the Ellicott City side of the boundary line then you don’t get to vote for the “northeast Howard candidate”. This increases the size of the voter pool that the candidate can attract votes from.</p>
<p>Second, it’s possible that other people elsewhere in Howard County might think that northeast Howard needs more attention by the BoE, even if they don’t see it as the most important issue. Those people could vote for the candidate that best represents their own perceived interests, designating them as their first preference, and still vote for the “northeast Howard candidate” as their second preference. If enough people do so, that candidate could be elected even if the number of their supporters in Elkridge or Savage might not be enough to get them elected just on “first preference” votes.</p>
<p>What about the concern that parents wouldn’t know who on the Board of Education to contact if they had concerns about their local schools? That’s easily solved: just have the Board of Education itself assign members to different parts of the county, to serve as the official liasons to parents and students in those areas.</p>
<p>BoE members would naturally nominate themselves to serve those areas that are their natural constituencies, as in the “champion of northeast Howard” example above. And because the Board of Education would be doing this assignment as a matter of board procedure, and not in strict accordance with state law, it could assign members to areas that would be as closely aligned as possible to the actual school catchment areas, and not have to go back to the Maryland legislature in the event that those boundary lines change.</p>
<p>What about the concern that it would be more expensive to campaign county-wide, and that election by districts makes it easier for “local” candidates to run in their own districts without having to raise a lot of money?  I think what we are seeing now is at odds with that ideal: since the number of voters in each district is relatively small, and the turnout for a primary is going to be relatively low, it’s possible for wealthy donors inside or (as Julia McCready has complained) outside a district to have an outsized influence in that district’s election.</p>
<p>I’ll close by noting that even though the Board of Education elections have in the eyes of many become more politicized and partisan, adopting a county-wide ranked choice voting scheme for the BoE or County Council should not be a point of partisan contention. In the context of this year’s Board of Education election ranked choice voting would help progressive Democrats who live in western Howard. In the context of the 2022 County Council election ranked choice voting would help conservative Republicans who live in eastern Howard.</p>
<p>That’s because ranked choice voting is designed to better reflect voters’ preferences in general, and to do a better job of ensuring that preferences held only by a minority of voters can nonetheless lead to those voters having representation on elected bodies like the Board of Education or County Council. Who will be in the minority will vary by time, place, and the issues involved, so ranked choice voting offers something for everyone regardless of their particular political views.</p>
<h2 id="further-exploration">Further exploration</h2>
<p>For more on this topic see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://hocoprogressreport.com/analysis-of-scott-es-d5-boe-debate/">Analysis of Scott E’s D5 BOE Debate</a>”. Jenny Solpietro bemoans the lack of progressive candidates in District 5.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://spartanconsiderations.blogspot.com/2020/05/contemplations-on-board-of-education.html">Contemplations on the Board of Education Races</a>”. Jason Booms reviews the 2020 Board of Education races and states that he will not be commenting on the District 5 candidates.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2020/04/heres-context.html">Here’s the Context</a>”. Julia McCready’s thoughts about the new dynamics of Board of Education races.</li>
<li>“<a href="/2020/03/03/a-better-way-to-elect-the-howard-county-council/">A better way to elect the Howard County Council</a>” and “<a href="/2020/03/04/ranked-choice-voting-questions-and-answers/">Ranked choice voting questions and answers</a>” contain more of my thoughts on ranked choice voting in the context of Howard COunty.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/howard/ph-ho-cf-school-board-restructure-1022-20151016-story.html">Bill proposes to elect Howard school board members by district</a>,” a 2015 <em>Baltimore Sun</em> article by Amanda Yeager and Lisa Philip, discusses the early stages of the effort to elect Board of Education members by districts. The justification was that “constituents . . . are confused about where to turn when they have a question for the board.”</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/howard/ph-ho-cf-school-board-agreement-0216-20170212-story.html">Howard school board bill moves forward</a>,” a 2017 <em>Baltimore Sun</em> article by Amanda Yeager, contains quotes from several local politicians for and against the move to elect Board of Education members by district.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/howard/cng-ho-school-board-primary-20200514-n6anoqh62vbndj7bqgbujycvw4-story.html">Howard County Board of Education primary election features new district format, vote-by-mail ballots</a>,” a current <em>Baltimore Sun</em> article by Jacob Calvin Meyer, discusses the new scheme for electing the Board of Education.</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Ranked choice voting questions and answers</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2020/03/04/ranked-choice-voting-questions-and-answers/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Mar 2020 22:30:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2020/03/04/ranked-choice-voting-questions-and-answers/</guid>
      <description>I answer questions about ranked choice voting raised by the Howard County Charter Review Commission and others.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/takoma-park-ballot-example.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/takoma-park-ballot-example-embed.png"
         alt="An instant runoff ballot from the Takoma Park 2007 Ward 5 special election"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>An extract from the sample ballot for the instant runoff (single winner ranked choice) special election held on January 30, 2007, to fill the city council seat for Ward 5 in Takoma Park, Maryland. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image adapted from the <a href="https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B3K2g6lIQMWsd1A2bVpFOXhVY2M">Ward 5 special election sample ballot</a> and reproduced for purposes of commentary.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I answer questions about ranked choice voting raised by the Howard County Charter Review Commission and others.</em></p>
<p>I was able to make it to the Howard County Charter Review Commission’s public hearing last night and request that the commission recommend the adoption of ranked choice voting for the Howard County Council, with all members elected county-wide. (See my <a href="/2020/03/03/a-better-way-to-elect-the-howard-county-council/">prior post</a> for a copy of my testimony.)</p>
<p>The members of the commission had various questions about ranked choice voting, as did people on Facebook when I posted <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/HowardCounty/permalink/2856860101074473/">a link to my testimony</a>. My answers were off-the-cuff and could be improved in many cases, while one answer (to a question about examples of ranked choice voting in Maryland) was outright incorrect.</p>
<p>Here’s the complete list of questions along with my improved answers.</p>
<p><em>Wouldn’t this make running for Howard County Council more expensive, since candidates would have to campaign county-wide?</em></p>
<p>I think running under a ranked choice voting election could be somewhat more expensive, but I think this fear is overblown.</p>
<p>The key point is that running in a ranked choice election for one of five or seven council seats is <em>not</em> like running for county executive. In the county executive race a candidate must aim for more than 50% of the vote, but in a ranked choice election a candidate need only get more than 16.7% (for a five member council) or 12.5% (for a seven person council) of the vote.</p>
<p>That means a candidate could (and should) concentrate expensive and/or time-intensive activities like canvassing or direct mail on their natural base of voters, which might be concentrated in a particular geographical area or based on shared interests. The rest of the voters could be addressed through less expensive means, for example using social media.</p>
<p><em>If county council members no longer have districts, how would a person know which council member to call for constituent services?</em></p>
<p>I’m not really the person to ask about this. The people to ask about this are Liz Bobo, Ed Cochran, C. Vernon Gray, Lloyd Knowles, or Ginny Thomas, all of whom were elected to the Howard County Council during a time when council members were elected at large, before council districts were adopted in 1984.</p>
<p>But if you ask me, I’d answer as follows: Even though council members would be elected county-wide, they’d still likely have natural constituencies, based on the area of the county in which they live, particular interest groups they represent, and so on. For example, someone living in Ellicott City concerned about, say, Route 40 development would likely contact whichever council member happened to live in Ellicott City and seemed interested in that issue.</p>
<p>Since there would be no districts, it wouldn’t be possible for redistricting to split up those natural constituencies. If you find a particular council member is responsive to your concerns, you can continue to treat them as “your council member” for as long as they serve. And if that council member ceased to be responsive you’d have the choice of several others to ask instead.</p>
<p><em>Question: What about retaining council districts and electing members for each district using ranked choice voting?</em></p>
<p>Answer: This is a perfectly possible scheme to implement, and in fact is implemented in at least one nearby jurisdiction (see below). The technical term for it is “single winner ranked choice voting” or “instant runoff voting”. Voters express their preferences among candidates as before, but only a single winner is chosen.</p>
<p>One problem with single winner ranked choice voting is that it makes sense only if there’s more than two candidates. With two candidates the counting of votes works just like a regular election: whoever has the most first preference votes wins, with the voters’ second preferences not mattering.</p>
<p>So how do we get more than two candidates? There are two possibilities (which are not mutually exclusive). The first is that the two major parties continue to put forward one candidate apiece, but those two candidates are joined by additional candidates who represent smaller parties or who are running as independents.</p>
<p>With ranked choice voting, voters unhappy with the two major parties are free to express their displeasure by giving their first preference votes to someone other than a major party candidate. Their votes would not be wasted, since if their favored candidate doesn’t win their second preferences can help elect someone else, such as the major party candidate they consider the lesser of evils.</p>
<p>Another possibility is that the two major parties put forth multiple candidates of their own, for example, as a substitute for their traditional primaries. Alternatively, they could retain the current primaries but let two or three winners advance to the general election rather than just one. This might help when it’s not clear which of the candidates is more suited for general election success.</p>
<p>However, using single winner ranked choice voting by district does not help with the problem of ensuring that minority groups are represented on the county council. Only if members of such groups were concentrated in one or two districts would they have enough critical mass to help get their favored candidates elected.</p>
<p><em>What about keeping the five council districts as is, with election by district as done today, and adding two at-large council members elected county-wide?</em></p>
<p>If the at-large elections were conducted as they usually are, this would almost certainly just result in adding two Democratic council members to the council.</p>
<p>Each party would nominate two candidates for the at-large seats. Given that Democrats have a significant edge in both party registration and votes county-wide (based on the 2018 election), and given that most people (even supposedly unaffiliated voters) would likely vote a straight party ticket, the two Democratic candidates would almost certainly end up with the most votes and be elected.</p>
<p>We know this because this is exactly what happened on a larger scale during the period when Howard County elected all five council members at large. During that era Republicans had more than one member on the county council only once, at a time when Democrats and Republicans were more evenly matched in voting strength than they are today. In 1974 the effect was so pronounced that all five Democratic council candidates were elected and Republicans had no member on the council.</p>
<p>What about using ranked choice voting for the two at-large seats? This would almost certainly always lead to one Democrat and one Republican being elected at-large. In a ranked choice election with two candidates, a candidate can be elected if just around 33.4% of voters select them as their first preference. It’s a simple matter of arithmetic: if two candidates each get 33.4% of first preference votes, or 66.8% between them, the best that any other candidate can do is to get 33.2% of first preference votes and come in third. The first two candidates would then be elected to the two seats.</p>
<p>Given the number of Republican voters in the county and past voting patterns for county council elections (see below), if the Republican party ran a single candidate then that candidate would likely clear the bar of getting 33.4% of first preferences. The same is true of the Democratic party. The two parties would then split the seats between each other.</p>
<p><em>If ranked choice voting were implemented with a seven-member council and county-wide elections, what would be the likely split between Democratic and Republican council members?</em></p>
<p>If there were no other parties were involved, my best guess is that we’d see at least two Republicans on the county council (i.e., a 5&ndash;2 split), and possibly three (a 4&ndash;3 split).</p>
<p>The math again is fairly simple: Using a similar argument as above, with ranked choice voting for a seven-member council a candidate would win if they got just over 12.5% of the first preference votes (100% divided by 8).</p>
<p>In the 2018 election Republican candidates for county council collectively got 43,772 votes out of a total of 136,524 votes in all county council races combined, or about 32%. However, there was no Republican candidate in District 3; if there had been one then the total vote for Republican county council candidates might have been a few points higher, say around 36&ndash;38%.</p>
<p>If Republicans ran two candidates in a ranked choice election for seven council seats, and the two GOP candidates each got an equal number of first preference votes, a 32% share of the total vote would translate into 16% of the first preference votes for each candidate, more than the 12.5% needed to get elected.</p>
<p>Could three Republicans win election to a seven-member county council with ranked choice voting? It’s possible, but it would be tight: With three candidates and an equal share of first preference votes, the three candidates collectively would have to get more than 37.5% of the vote (3 times 12.5%), significantly more than the 32% GOP share in the 2018 council election.</p>
<p>However, even if there were not enough first preference votes to elect three Republicans it’s possible that a third Republican might be elected if they could secure a fair number of second preference votes from voters who selected Democratic candidates for their first preferences. The type of candidate best positioned to do this would be a moderate Republican who appealed to many Democrats, for example someone like Allan Kittleman.</p>
<p><em>Is any jurisdiction in Maryland currently using ranked choice voting?</em></p>
<p>I answered “no” to this during the hearing, but I was wrong. It turns out that the city of Takoma Park has been using ranked choice voting since 2006 for both its mayoral elections and elections to its city council. All of these are single winner ranked choice (“instant runoff”) elections. Six members of the city council are elected by ward, and the mayor is elected at-large.</p>
<p>Takoma Park’s experience is not fully applicable to Howard County, for at least two reasons. First, Takoma Park does not use a multiple winner ranked choice system like I’ve been discussing above. Second, the total number of votes cast is relatively small. This makes it feasible to count the votes by hand, something that would be relatively time-consuming in Howard County.</p>
<p>However the use of ranked choice voting in Takoma Park does indicate that the concept is not foreign to Maryland, and it seems to be both well-understood and popular among voters in the city.</p>
<p><em>Would the Maryland legislature have to pass special legislation in order for Howard County to use ranked choice voting?</em></p>
<p>I’m not a lawyer and can’t give a definitive opinion on this. However to my knowledge the only restriction imposed by the Constitution of Maryland on Howard County is as follows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The charter for the government of any county governed by the provisions of this Article may provide for the election of members of the county council by the voters of councilmanic districts therein established, or by the voters of the entire county, or by a combination of these methods of election. (Article XI-A, Section 3A.)</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A ranked choice election conducted on a county-wide basis would appear to satisfy this requirement.</p>
<p>That’s all the questions I can remember. If you have further questions please feel free to ping me on Facebook or Twitter (@hecker).</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For more information on ranked choice voting in Takoma Park, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://www.fairvote.org/instant-runoff-voting-in-action-in-takoma-park-3">Instant runoff voting in action in Takoma Park</a>”. A description of how single winner ranked choice voting worked in a 2012 special election in Takoma Park Ward 5.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://takomaparkmd.gov/election-2017/instant-runoff-voting/">Frequently Asked questions about instant runoff voting</a>”. How the Takoma Park city government explains single winner ranked choice voting to city residents.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B3K2g6lIQMWsQzQ3TVdqTjRyeW8">Takoma Park Municipal Code, Section 606, Election of Mayor and Councilmembers</a>”. The section of the Takoma Park municipal code outlining the “instant runoff” procedure for voting for the mayor and members of the city council.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B3K2g6lIQMWsd1A2bVpFOXhVY2M">City of Takoma Park, Maryland, Ward 5 Special Election, January 30, 2007 Ballot</a>”. Sample ballot explaining to Takoma Park voters how to use the single winner ranked choice system.</li>
</ul>
<p>Numbers for Republican vote share in the 2018 county council elections are from the <a href="https://elections.maryland.gov/elections/2018/results/general/gen_results_2018_2_by_county_14-1.html">official 2018 gubernatorial election results for Howard County</a>. See also my 2012 post “<a href="/2012/06/03/how-to-win-an-stv-election-for-howard-county-council-part-1/">How to win an STV election for Howard County Council, part 1</a>” for an example of how a ranked choice election might have played out based on the 2010 election results.</p>
<p>Finally, Section 3A of <a href="https://msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/43const/html/11aar.html">Article XI-A of the Constitution of Maryland</a> appears to be the governing language on how Maryland charter counties (like Howard) can conduct council elections.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A better way to elect the Howard County Council</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2020/03/03/a-better-way-to-elect-the-howard-county-council/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 03 Mar 2020 07:50:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2020/03/03/a-better-way-to-elect-the-howard-county-council/</guid>
      <description>Tweaking the council redistricting process is the wrong solution. Ranked choice voting is the right one.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/ranked-choice-ballot-example.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ranked-choice-ballot-example-embed.png"
         alt="A sample ranked choice ballot with up to five choices"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The above shows an example of what a ballot might look like for an election conducted using ranked choice voting. A real election for a five-member council would have at least five candidates, and probably closer to ten. But the voter would still indicate just their first five choices, in order of preference. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image adapted from the <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B3K2g6lIQMWsdXk3S0FpM0Y1OU0/view">FairVote ranked choice sample ballot</a> and reproduced for purposes of commentary.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Tweaking the council redistricting process is the wrong solution. Ranked choice voting is the right one.</em></p>
<p>I’ve been preoccupied with other things and missed the fact that the Howard County Charter Review Commission is having its last public hearing tonight. James Howard, one of the commission members, recently published a <a href="https://jameshoward.us/2020/03/02/proposed-charter-review-recommendations/">preview of the commission’s recommendations</a>.</p>
<p>The primary recommendation is to increase the size of the Howard County Council from five members to seven, presumably to reflect the increased population since the first Howard County Charter was adopted in 1968. I support this recommendation.</p>
<p>A second set of recommendations is tweak the process of redrawing council district lines, apparently in an effort to make the process less partisan. While these recommendations are worthy in and of themselves, I think they miss the point in terms of reforming the way the Howard County Council is elected. I think a better approach would be to ditch the entire council district system.</p>
<p>Here’s a statement I wrote to give in public testimony before the Charter Review Commission. Since it’s too late to submit written testimony by email, and I may not be able to get to the last public hearing tonight, I’m publishing it here in case anyone else wants to use it. (I’ve timed the statement to make sure it comes in under three minutes, the limit for individuals proving testimony.)</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As I understand it, the Charter Review Commission is likely to recommend increasing the Howard County Council from five members to seven. However, I would like to go on record as asking the commission to consider recommending an alternative approach: to get rid of council districts, and instead elect council members on a county-wide basis using ranked-choice voting, in which voters rank the various candidates in order of their preference.</p>
<p>I also understand that the commission is likely to make other recommendations to improve the process of council redistricting. But beyond the time-consuming and contentious task of drawing new district lines, electing council members by districts has an inherent flaw that cannot be remedied: Suppose you are a voter who is a member of a minority group spread relatively evenly across the county, whether that be a minority ethnic or racial group, a minority political party, or a minority interest group of any type. Your chances of having a council member representing your group are low, because your group is not likely to be a majority in any individual council district.</p>
<p>But in a ranked choice county-wide election your vote will count again: With a seven-member council, if your group makes up at least 10-15% of the voting population you have a good chance of electing at least one council member sympathetic to your interests. If your group makes up at least 20% of voters, that chance becomes almost a certainty.</p>
<p>As documented by FairVote (fairvote.org), the Ranked Choice Voting Resource Center (rankedchoicevoting.org), and others, ranked-choice voting schemes do a much better job of electing candidates who reflect voters’ true preferences. They help to preserve the voting power of minority populations, by ensuring that their votes are not wasted: even if their most preferred candidate loses, their second, third, and other preferences can help elect other suitable candidates.</p>
<p>When implemented using properly designed ballots, ranked choice voting is both simple for voters to understand and compatible with optical scan systems like those used in Howard County. The actual tabulation of results can be carried out either by computer or, if desired, by hand, for example in a recount of paper ballots.</p>
<p>Ranked choice voting has been successfully implemented in a number of US jurisdictions, including at the state, city, and county level. In particular, I recommend for the commission’s consideration the charter language and detailed voting rules implemented by the city of Cambridge, Massachusetts, for elections to its nine-member City Council and six-member School Committee.</p>
<p>Like Cambridge, Howard County prides itself on its high-tech economy and educated population. It deserves no less than a modern voting system that helps ensure that the Howard County Council reflects as much as possible the rich diversity of Howard County and the true preferences of Howard County voters. Thank you.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For more information on and arguments for ranked choice voting, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.rankedchoicevoting.org/">Ranked Choice Voting Resource Center</a>. “The Ranked Choice Voting Resource Center provides a compilation of best practices and first-hand experiences from jurisdictions that have used this method of voting.” The people behind it have deep experience as election administrators.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.fairvote.org/">FairVote</a>. More activist in nature, “FairVote is a nonpartisan champion of electoral reforms that give voters greater choice, a stronger voice, and a representative democracy that works for all Americans.”</li>
<li><em><a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/breaking-the-two-party-doom-loop-9780190913854?cc=us&amp;lang=en&amp;">Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop: The Case for Multiparty Democracy in America</a></em>. Argues that the current two-party duopoly is driving political polarization and gridlock, and that the only way to fix it is by moving to ranked choice voting.</li>
</ul>
<p>For more information on other local jurisdictions considering ranked choice voting, see the following news stories:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/communities/san-diego/story/2020-02-28/nonpartisan-group-pursuing-instant-runoff-voting-for-san-diego-city-elections">Group pursues ‘ranked-choice’ voting for San Diego city elections</a>”. An initiative in San Diego, California.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://bangordailynews.com/2020/02/28/news/portland/portland-voters-will-decide-whether-to-expand-ranked-choice-voting/">Portland voters will decide whether to expand ranked-choice voting</a>”. An initiative in Portland, Maine.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.columbian.com/news/2020/feb/16/vancouver-eyes-ranked-choice-voting-system/">Vancouver eyes ranked-choice voting system</a>”. An initiative in Vancouver, Washington.</li>
</ul>
<p>For more information on how Howard County came to have council districts in the first place, see my book, <em><a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a></em>. For more details on how ranked choice voting might work in Howard County, see my series, “<a href="/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/">Electing a council that reflects Howard County</a>”. (Those posts, written eight years ago, use the older term “proportional representation” used in other countries. The term “ranked choice voting” is what is used now in the US.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>More on the 5,000 &#34;missing&#34; affordable housing units</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2020/01/04/more-on-the-5000-missing-affordable-housing-units/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 04 Jan 2020 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2020/01/04/more-on-the-5000-missing-affordable-housing-units/</guid>
      <description>A clarification on the claimed shortage of affordable housing in Howard County.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>I don’t usually post articles commenting on what my fellow Howard County bloggers write.  However I’m more likely to jump into the fray when important points need to be clarified&mdash;all the more so when I myself haven’t done a good job of being clear in my own blog posts.</p>
<p>The topic today is the oft-repeated claim that Howard County has a shortage of 5,000 (or 5,500) affordable housing units, and in particular the post “<a href="https://westhoward.org/the-high-cost-of-affordable-housing/">The High Cost of Affordable Housing</a>” by the pseudonymous blogger “Shaykh.”  In this post they write,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The current refrain of the far left is that Howard County “needs more affordable housing,” making claims such as “we have a shortage of 5,500 affordable housing units.”  Why is there a shortage?  Where are these 5,500 families that are without housing?  Are they living in a tent city like we now see out in Seattle?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Shaykh then goes on to speculate:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If each of these 5,500 affordable housing units sees an average of 2.5 persons, that would equal 13,750 more residents, or a 4.3% population increase over the current 321,000 residents.  This is more than 3.5 times higher than the <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/md/howard-county-population/">current growth rate of 1.2%</a>. . . .  If each of these 5,500 affordable units has an average of 1.5 children (I feel this is a reasonable guess), that would mean 8,250 more children in HCPSS, a 14% increase of the roughly 58,000 students currently enrolled.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>First, to nitpick: I think the number 5,500 should actually be 5,000, if (as I think) the source of this estimate is ultimately the the <em><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Rne8OA4QgGOdbxqjDrdgotoSz5gZ06H6/view?usp=sharing">2018 Howard County Rental Survey</a></em> commissioned by the <a href="https://www.househoward.org/">Howard County Housing Commission</a>.  If so, this is not Shaykh’s fault, as various politicians and activists have used the 5,500 number in their public statements.</p>
<p>More fundamentally, the estimate of 5,000 “missing” affordable units does <em>not</em> mean that there are 5,000 Howard County households who are homeless, or 5,000 households living elsewhere who would like to move to Howard County but cannot.  Instead it is an estimate of the number of households <em>already renting housing in Howard County</em> who are paying more for rent than is considered “affordable.”</p>
<p>I already posted about <a href="/2019/11/17/the-case-of-the-missing-affordable-housing/">how this estimate was derived</a>, but looking back on that post I’ve concluded that I didn’t do a very good job of explaining things.  So, I’ll try again:</p>
<p>The 5,000 estimate is based on a comparison to a theoretical ideal: <em>If</em> the housing market were a totally free market and <em>if</em> there were no factors artificially inflating the price of housing, then we would presumably see developers and landlords offering a range of housing options priced to be suitable for households in each and every income range, just as we do with other types of consumer goods.  (Just as, for example, with clothing we see the free market offering options ranging from buying low-priced outfits at TJ Maxx to buying haute couture from Christian Dior.)</p>
<p>At the time the <em>2018 Howard County Rental Survey</em> was produced, there were an estimated 9,545 households with household income of less than $50K who were living and renting in Howard County.  To put this in context, at the time of the survey there were an estimated 116,711 households in Howard County, of which an estimated 32,358 households were renting.  (See page 17 of the survey, Table 10, “Renter Household Characteristics.”)  These lower-income households thus make up about 8% of all Howard County households, and about 29% of renting households.</p>
<p>So, <em>if</em> the housing market in Howard County were a totally free market and <em>if</em> there were no factors artificially inflating the price of housing in Howard County, then we would expect to see these 9,545 lower-income Howard County households renting units that were priced roughly in line with the incomes these households have.</p>
<p>However at the time of the survey there were only 4,486 rental units in Howard County that were considered to be “affordable” to those 9,545 lower-income households, with “affordability” based on the (somewhat arbitrary) guideline that a household should spend no more than 30% of its income on housing.  The difference of 5,059 (9,545 minus 4,486), rounded off to 5,000, is then considered to be the amount by which Howard County falls short in terms of providing affordable housing.</p>
<p>So this has nothing whatsoever to do with enticing thirteen thousand poor people to move to Howard County, or adding eight thousand more FARM students to Howard County public schools.  Those people are already living here, and their children are already attending school here.  They’re just paying more than 30% of their household income for their rental housing.</p>
<p>As for how to make housing more affordable in Howard County, Shaykh’s position is that the best solution lies in making the housing market more of a free market, for example by loosening zoning restrictions.  I agree with this, and said so in <a href="/2019/11/17/the-case-of-the-missing-affordable-housing/">my previous post</a>.</p>
<p>The fundamental problem with government policy on housing is summed up by the economist Arnold Kling as “<a href="http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/restrict-supply-subsidize-demand/">restricting supply then subsidizing demand</a>.”  On the one hand, zoning regulations and other government-imposed restrictions (e.g., APFO regulations) result in less housing built than would otherwise be built in a totally free market, reducing the supply of housing and driving up its price.</p>
<p>Government then seeks to offset the impact of increased housing prices through various direct and indirect subsidies, including things like Section 8 vouchers (which attract the most attention and controversy) but also including providing tax credits for developers building affordable housing and allowing homeowners to take tax deductions for mortgage interest and real estate taxes.</p>
<p>These subsidies not only divert government spending from arguably more useful purposes (like improving transportation infrastructure), they also have the effect of increasing the demand for housing beyond what it would have been in the absence of the subsidies.  This then further drives up the already high housing prices caused by the restricted supply of housing.</p>
<p>From this point of view the way to address the issue of housing affordability is <em>not</em> to create more “affordable housing,” it’s to build more housing, period.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Housing, schools, and public transportation</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/11/21/housing-schools-and-public-transportation/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 21 Nov 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/11/21/housing-schools-and-public-transportation/</guid>
      <description>More thoughts on Howard County school redistricting and housing affordability.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>After writing something I almost always think of things I wanted to say but didn’t have the time or space for.  So it was with my last post touching on housing affordability issues in Howard County.  Here are a couple of random follow-up comments,:</p>
<h2 id="school-redistricting-and-housing-affordability">School redistricting and housing affordability</h2>
<p>I have for the most part stayed out of directly commenting on the current controversy on school redistricting in Howard County.  My family is not directly affected by it since we don’t have a child in the public school system, and I didn’t have the time or inclination to do the sort of in-depth research I normally feel is necessary before I make public comments on my blog or elsewhere.</p>
<p>However I did at least obliquely comment on the issue in my post “<a href="/2019/09/25/moving-to-opportunity-in-howard-county/">Moving to opportunity in Howard County</a>.”  To recap briefly, I suspect supporters of the superintendent’s proposed redistricting plan are likely over optimistic as to how much of a real difference the plan would actually make in the lives of students, especially students already in high school.  (I think one could make a stronger case for redistricting at the elementary school level.)  At the same time I definitely believe opponents of the plan downplay the extent to which the current situation is the result of deliberate government “social engineering” that has the effect of isolating lower-income households geographically and discouraging their living in Howard County.</p>
<p>Some people claim that rather than redistricting the school system we should be instead focusing on issues of housing affordability, making sure that lower-income households are able to live in any part of the county and take advantages of the schools in those areas.  That’s a perfectly legitimate opinion to hold, and I look forward to seeing these people work to build political support for concrete proposals to do just that.</p>
<h2 id="the-no-public-transit-argument-against-affordable-housing">The “no public transit” argument against affordable housing</h2>
<p>Still on the topic of affordable housing, Tom Coale (who is variously an <a href="http://www.talkin-oh.com/index.php/our-attorneys-and-staff/thomas-g-coale">attorney representing developers</a>, a progressive activist, and co-host of the <a href="http://elevatemdpodcast.com/">Elevate Maryland podcast</a>), recently <a href="https://twitter.com/hocorising/status/1191757639107121152">tweeted</a>, “Time after time, inadequate public transportation is used as an excuse to reject affordable [housing] projects,” and claimed that “The median income in certain parts of Maryland is high enough that those eligible for affordable housing, based on percentage of median [income], make enough to own a car, but not enough to pay for housing.”</p>
<p>As it happened, that tied in nicely with the analysis I had been doing on new vehicle sales, and so I <a href="https://twitter.com/hecker/status/1191762305018675200">tweeted in response</a>.  To expand a bit on my comment:</p>
<p>The median new vehicle price is around $35,000, and according to the affordability criterion I used (the vehicle price should be no more than 50% of pre-tax income) such a median vehicle should be affordable to a household making $70,000 a year.  Although such an income is above the US median income of approximately $62,000 a year, it is well below the Howard County median income of almost $120,000 a year, and so it’s quite possible such a household would have difficulty affording housing in the county.</p>
<p>If we turn to households making between $25,000 and $50,000, they should be able to afford a single vehicle worth $12,000 to $25,000, used or even new.  They could even probably afford two high-mileage used vehicles.  But, again, they would almost certainly have problems affording housing in Howard County.</p>
<p>The result is that, as Coales tweeted, “There is no record of people being ‘stranded’ because we built affordable housing without a bus route.” As he also pointed out, housing affordability is a problem across the state, even in areas where people absolutely need a vehicle to get around, and presumably are able to afford one one way or the other.</p>
<p>That’s it for follow-up for today, though I may have some additional comments later.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The case of the missing affordable housing</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/11/17/the-case-of-the-missing-affordable-housing/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 17 Nov 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/11/17/the-case-of-the-missing-affordable-housing/</guid>
      <description>The story behind the claim that Howard County needs 5,000 more affordable units.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-comments.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-comments-embed.png"
         alt="Online comments referencing the alleged 5,000 missing affordable housing units in Howard County, Maryland"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A selection of online comments referencing the alleged 5,000 missing affordable housing units in Howard County, Maryland. In the center is the original paragraph that presumably inspired these comments. Click for a higher-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p><em>tl;dr: The story behind the claim that Howard County needs 5,000 more affordable units.</em></p>
<p>If you’ve been following Howard County matters you’ve probably heard someone claim that there’s a shortage of over 5,000 (sometimes 5,500) affordable housing units in the county.  Have you ever wondered where that number came from?  What it means?  How it was calculated?  If so, I am here to (I hope) shed some light on these questions.</p>
<p>To answer the first question, this estimate is from the <em><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Rne8OA4QgGOdbxqjDrdgotoSz5gZ06H6/view?usp=sharing">2018 Howard County Rental Survey</a></em> commissioned by the <a href="https://www.househoward.org/">Howard County Housing Commission</a>.  (Thanks go to Tom Coale of the <a href="http://elevatemdpodcast.com/">Elevate Maryland podcast</a> for indirectly providing me this clue.)  More specifically, it’s from pages 81&ndash;82 of that document, which is worth quoting at length:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There are 1,250 multifamily subsidized rental units and another 1,886 multifamily rental units that are rent-restricted.  Additionally, Howard County administers approximately 1,350 tenant-based Housing Choice Vouchers (HCV) of which 800 are county vouchers and 550 are Port-In vouchers from other jurisdictions.  Assuming the unlikely scenario that no vouchers are used at tax credit communities, a combined 4,486 units are available to support the 9,545 low to moderate-income renter households in the county, leaving a gap of over 5,000 units, which provides a context for the county’s HCV waiting list of a comparable length.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>So there you go.  This appears to be the definitive number that’s bandied about (although I’ve also seen the number 5,500 used a couple of times): 1,250 plus 1,886 plus 1,350 adds up to 4,486 (affordable rental units), and 9,545 (households) minus 4,486 equals 5,059, the size of the claimed gap.  (I’m not sure where the number 5,500 comes from.  It may just be someone misremembering the report’s conclusion.)</p>
<p>Two additional points: First, the figure of 9,545 low to moderate-income renter households is from Table 11 on page 19, and comes from adding 2,524, 1,870, and 5,151, the numbers of rental households earning less than $15,000, between $15,000 and $25,000, and between $25,000 and $50,000 respectively.  (In comparison, the number of rental households earning more than $50,000 is 22,813.)</p>
<p>Second, the 5,000 figure is buried in the conclusion of the housing survey analysis, not highlighted in the introductory summary.  If you didn’t have the patience to read through the previous 80+ pages of very number-heavy text you would have missed it.  That’s pretty casual treatment for a number that’s since received so much attention from politicians and activists.</p>
<p>You can stop reading here if you want to.  But if you’re interested in exploring more of the story, including the “penetration rate” analysis discussed in the rental survey and whether or not the market for housing looks like the market for other goods and services, read on.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-penetration.jpg"><img alt="Penetration analysis showing availability of rental housing vs. income ranges" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-penetration-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Let’s start with this graph, Figure 12 on page 80 of the survey, part of section D, “Penetration Rate Analysis.”  (It’s also duplicated on page viii of the Executive Summary.)  To quote from the beginning of that section,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>By dividing the number of units in a specific affordability classification by the number of renter households that can afford or qualify for a unit at that price point, the penetration rate can tell us the extent to which renter households at particular income bands are adequately served by the existing supply.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For example, according to the graph, there are few “low rent” units targeting families earning 50-60% of the area median income, relative to the number of such families.  In contrast, there are lots of “moderate rent” units targeting families earning 60-80% of the area median income, again relative to the number of such families.  The former income range is said to have a low penetration rate (under-supplied), and the latter income range to have a high penetration rate (over-supplied).</p>
<p>(The survey divides Howard County into multiple sections and presents penetration rates for each one.  Also, the “area” in “area median income” refers to the general Baltimore metropolitan area, not to Howard County specifically.  Thus a household making less than 60% of the area median income actually makes significantly less than that compared to the Howard County median household income.)</p>
<p>There are several factors and assumptions associated with this analysis.  Let’s explore this a bit more, moving from housing to other goods and services.  As I see it, the penetration rate analysis used in this survey and elsewhere rests on one fact&mdash;that households vary in their income&mdash;and two assumptions: that in a free market profit-seeking businesses (but not necessarily the same businesses) will produce goods affordable to all households no matter their income range, and that in a free market the supply of goods targeted to households of a particular income range should at least roughly match the number of households in that income range.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-income-ranges.png"><img alt="Bar graph showing the percentage of US households in each income range" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-income-ranges-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>Clearly households have a wide range of household incomes, as shown by the graph above, which displays the percentage of US households that have household incomes in certain ranges.  (The definitions of the various income ranges are from the US Census Bureau, and reference household income before taxes.)  As for the potential market for goods and services targeted to lower-income households, almost half of all US households have household income of less than $60,000 (the US median household income is about $62,000), and based on the graph it looks as if 20-25% of households have incomes of less than $30,000.</p>
<p>These are fairly large markets, and in a market economy it seems as if some businesses somewhere would find profitable ways to serve them.  In the case of products like clothing that’s exactly what happens: we see retailers like Ross and TJ Maxx coexist with retailers targeting middle-income and upper-income households, like Macy’s, Nordstroms, Saks Fifth Avenue, and so on.  All these are in turn supported by a global apparel industry capable of producing clothing at a wide range of price points, including relatively low ones.</p>
<p>The result is that households of all income ranges are reasonably adequately served by the products offered in the clothing market.  Lower-income households might not be able to spend a lot on clothes, but there’s a reason we don’t see headlines about the “clothing affordability crisis.”</p>
<p>However we shouldn’t necessarily expect to see an exact matching of clothing of different prices to households of different incomes&mdash;that lower-income households buy only cheap clothes and upper-income households buy only expensive clothes.  Some lower-income people want or need to present a more fashionable appearance, and will stretch their budget to do so.  At the other end of the income scale, higher-income individuals do not typically spend every day dressed in haute couture.</p>
<p>The result is that a penetration rate analysis for clothing would likely not show 100% penetration rates across all income ranges, even in a completely free market.  Instead we should expect to see higher penetration rates in the middle income ranges, and lower penetration rates at the extremes: relatively more mid-price clothing will be sold because there are lower-income households dressing up and higher-income households dressing down.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-new-vehicles.png"><img alt="Percentages of new vehicles affordable by income range" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-new-vehicles-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>Let’s turn to a penetration rate analysis for another important class of goods, namely cars and light trucks.  I was able to find the number of new vehicles sold for each model in 2017 along with price ranges for each model for the 2019 model year, and combined those to produce the graph above, which shows the percentages of vehicles sold that are targeted to each of the income ranges in the previous graph.</p>
<p>In creating this graph I had to make two key assumptions.  The first was how to account for sales of vehicles where there was a large difference between the minimum price and maximum price.  I tried to distribute sales for a given model across the price range in a reasonable manner, accounting for the fact that relatively few buyers purchase either the lowest price base model or the most expensive “loaded” model.  See the <a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/543979">full penetration rate analysis</a> for details.</p>
<p>The other assumption, which also comes up in the penetration analysis in the rental survey, is how to decide what income range a particular vehicle is targeted at based on its price.  Put another way, how do we measure vehicle affordability?  After looking at various recommendations of the form “how much should I pay for a car”, I decided to use the following criterion: a new vehicle is affordable to a given household if its price does not exceed 50% of the household’s before tax income.  Thus, for example, a household with an income of $60,000 should be able to afford a vehicle costing $30,000.</p>
<p>Put another way, given a vehicle offered for sale at a given price, a household’s income must be at least twice that price in order to afford the vehicle under this criterion.  As it turns out, the typical (mean/median) price for new vehicles is around $35,000, so under this criterion we’d consider a typical vehicle to be targeted to households making around $70,000 a year before tax.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-new-vehicles-penetration.png"><img alt="Penetration rate analysis of affordable new vehicles vs. income range" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-new-vehicles-penetration-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>Combining the previous graph with the graph on the number of households in each income range produces the graph above, which shows the new vehicle penetration rates for each income range.</p>
<p>There are several points worth making about this graph.  First, the details of the graph are obviously dependent on the assumptions made about vehicle affordability.  If the criterion for affordability, i.e., a vehicle price no more than 50% of household income, were changed then the penetration rates for the various income groups would also change.</p>
<p>However the overall shape of the graph should remain the same, with under-penetration in the lowest and highest income ranges, and over-penetration in the middle income ranges.  This general shape can be explained as follows:</p>
<p>In the higher-income ranges there are fewer vehicles sold than one might expect.  For example, a household in the income range “$200,000 or more” should be able to afford a vehicle costing $100,000 or more, but relatively few such vehicles are sold (about a 25% penetration rate).  This is probably due to two factors: 1) as with clothes, there’s an upper limit on how luxurious a vehicle a given household wants or needs, and 2) higher-income households almost certainly have multiple vehicles, for example buying two vehicles for $50,000 each instead of one vehicle for $100,000.</p>
<p>In the lower-income ranges there are also fewer vehicles sold than one might expect.  Again this is likely due to two factors: 1) auto manufacturers find it difficult to sell truly low-cost vehicles in the US market, due both to government regulations and lack of market demand for small vehicles with limited or no amenities; and 2) some households buy vehicles that are more expensive than what they could supposedly afford, due to need (for example, a truck for work or an SUV to transport a large family) or simply the desire to have a nicer vehicle.</p>
<p>The flip-side of under-penetration in the lowest and highest household income ranges is then over-penetration in the middle income ranges: many more vehicles are sold into the middle part of the market than one might expect given the number of households in those income ranges.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-apartments.jpg"><img alt="Examples of apartment complexes in Howard County, Maryland" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/missing-affordable-housing-apartments-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>What lessons, if any, does the market for cars and trucks have for the rental housing market?</p>
<p>At the top of the market truly expensive luxury apartments are as rare as exotic supercars, at least in Howard County.  Just as wealthy families have the option of buying multiple lower-priced vehicles rather than one super-expensive vehicle, wealthy families in Howard have an alternative to renting expensive apartments, namely purchasing expensive single-family homes on large lots.  For example, a household that could spend $5,000-6,000 or even more in monthly rent could just as easily purchase a house worth $1-2 million somewhere in west Howard.</p>
<p>(However, that’s not to say that there is no market at all for expensive apartments in Howard County: If <a href="https://www.apartments.com/the-metropolitan-downtown-columbia-columbia-md/tktl9z9/">listings at Apartments.com</a> are any indication, there appears to be strong demand relative to supply for large 3-bedroom apartments at the Metropolitan development next to the Mall at Columbia.  That demand will presumably be tested as more luxury apartment buildings open in downtown Columbia.)</p>
<p>The more interesting comparison in the context of affordable housing discussions is what happens at the lower ends of the vehicle and housing markets.  There are at least three possible approaches to serve lower-income households looking for transportation services:</p>
<p>The first is for manufacturers to make and sell lower-priced new vehicles.  For an example of what’s possible, a typical model of the manufactured-in-India <a href="https://www.marutisuzuki.com/channels/arena/hatchbacks/alto">Maruti Suzuki Alto</a> hatchback sells for the equivalent of about $5,000 in that country, two to three times less than the Nissan Versa, apparently the lowest-price car currently available in the US market.  Based on the affordability guideline above, such a vehicle would be affordable to a household with annual income of $10,000.</p>
<p>However, US and state government standards for vehicle safety, emissions, etc., make new vehicles more expensive than they otherwise might be.  Government decisions also distort the new vehicle market in other ways: Relatively low taxes on gasoline in effect subsidize the sales of larger more expensive vehicles, while land use and highway construction policies that encourage sprawl also discourage the use of smaller under-powered vehicles like the Alto that are more suited to city driving.</p>
<p>The result is that lower-income households wanting a personal vehicle turn to the used vehicle market, where they can pay lower prices in exchange for accepting a vehicle with perhaps significant wear and tear.  (As a comparison, a quick spot check of Howard County used vehicle dealers finds the lowest-price options are in the $6,000-$8,000 range, all vehicles with over 100,000 miles.  A quick check of craigslist.org finds several vehicles in the $3,000-$6,000 range, typically with even higher mileage.)</p>
<p>Finally, lower-income households who can’t afford personal vehicles rely primarily on public transit, which in a Howard County context means buses.</p>
<p>The perceived housing equivalent of public transit is public housing for which renters are directly subsidized, for example, the relatively new Monarch Mills development in Columbia or the renovated Forest Ridge apartments (shown above, left), also in Columbia.  Such housing is often stigmatized (e.g.  as “the projects”) and in suburbs like Howard County new public housing construction is typically strenuously opposed by nearby homeowners.</p>
<p>The housing equivalent of used vehicles are older apartments (or, in some cases, single-family houses) that have deteriorated to the point where they can no longer command typical market rents&mdash;what in extreme cases is pejoratively called “slum housing.” However, unlike vehicles, which have no real value once they reach a certain point of decay, deteriorated apartment complexes have an intrinsic value due to land and location.  In an economically vibrant area like Howard County they will likely be replaced with new construction or heavily renovated, at which point they will no longer be affordable to their former tenants.</p>
<p>Finally, the housing equivalent of low-priced new vehicles is low-priced new (or renovated) housing designed to be profitable for its developers with at most indirect subsidization (for example, housing for which the developer gets tax credits, analogous to the tax credits provided for electric vehicles).  Profitability here depends on at least two factors:</p>
<p>First, developers may incur certain costs directly as a result of government laws and regulations.  For example, requirements to go through an extended legal process for approvals (e.g., the 16-step process required for development in downtown Columbia) impose direct costs on developers as well as indirect costs, for example to fight legal action by development opponents or to gain their assent by paying for community amenities or reducing the scope of a project.</p>
<p>Second, government action (or inaction) distorts the market in various ways that make it more difficult to profitably offer lower-priced housing.  For example, zoning regulations that allow only single-family homes, or government’s declining to offer water and sewer service in certain areas, reduce the ability of developers to offer lower-priced multi-unit housing in areas that otherwise might be a good fit for it.</p>
<p>So, what’s the take away from all this?  First, the claims about Howard County needing 5,000 more affordable housing units need to be understood in the context of the assumptions behind this number.  Change the assumptions and the number will change.  (For example, it would be smaller if we relax the criteria for affordability.)</p>
<p>Second, the penetration rate analysis used in conjunction with calculating this number itself has a major problem: it implicitly assumes that all income ranges should have a 100% penetration rate for a given type of good, and that any deviation from that figure indicates a problem.  But as we saw from the example of the market for clothing, such deviations might just be the result of people’s preferences, relatively undistorted by any other factors.</p>
<p>However, the fundamental point remains: It is possible for markets in some goods to do a better job in serving lower-income households than they do.  The market for clothing does a better job in serving lower-income households than the market for vehicles, and the market for vehicles does a better job in serving lower-income household than the market for housing.</p>
<p>There’s therefore a lot of opportunity to improve how the housing market works for lower-income households.  Since government is to a large degree responsible for the problems in the housing market, government is equally accountable for addressing those problems.</p>
<p>As discussed above, this need not involve directly subsidizing lower-income households or the housing developments that serve them.  There’s also ample scope for reducing the market distortions caused by government action (or, in some case, inaction) in the areas of planning and zoning, provision of essential services, school redistricting, and the like.  Anyone who claims to care about housing affordability in Howard County needs to look at all the possible options on the table to make it possible for lower-income income households to lead productive lives as our fellow residents of the county.</p>
<p>That’s all for now.  My apologies for the long delay in getting this post out.  In addition to my usual work and family duties, I also now want to spend more time revising posts from this newsletter for publication on my main Civility and Truth website, plus I have other unrelated projects I want to work on.  The upshot is that I will be posting here much less frequently than my already infrequent schedule.  In the meantime, thank you again for your interest and attention.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Population density in Ellicott City, Maryland</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/10/09/population-density-in-ellicott-city-maryland/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 09 Oct 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/10/09/population-density-in-ellicott-city-maryland/</guid>
      <description>A look at the numbers at the census block group and census block levels.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/ec-density-2010-cbg-map.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ec-density-2010-cbg-map-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>I’m back again with more population density maps, this time for Ellicott City&mdash;or, more precisely, the Ellicott City Census Designated Place or CDP.</p>
<p>The map above shows population density variations as of the 2010 census for the various census block groups that are wholly or mostly within the Ellicott City CDP.  There are 34 such census block groups, compared to 54 census block groups for Columbia or 154 census block groups within the county, with Ellicott City thus accounting for about a fifth of Howard County.  (The 2010 population of 64,245 for these census block groups is also almost a fifth of the county’s total 2010 population.)</p>
<p>The main take-away from the map above is that most of Ellicott City has pretty much the same population density: it has less multi-unit housing than Columbia, and fewer large lots with single-family homes than western Howard County.  (The major exception is the area east of US 29 between US 40 and I-70, which contains a number of apartment complexes.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/ec-density-2010-cbg-graph.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ec-density-2010-cbg-graph-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>This is confirmed by the histogram above, which shows the distribution of density among the various Ellicott City census block groups in 2010.  Most of the CDP was between 1,000 to 4,000 people per square mile, with only two census block groups out of 34 having higher density.  The overall population density for Ellicott City in 2010 was 2,234 people per square mile, about a third less than the overall population density for Columbia.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/ec-density-changes-map.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ec-density-changes-map-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The next map shows changes in population density in Ellicott City between the 2010 census and the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates (which reflect surveys done in 2013 through 2017).  Even over this relatively short period we can see a significant decrease in density in the area between US 40 and I-70 west of Rogers Avenue (which includes a good chunk of Patapsco State Park).</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/ec-density-2013-2017-cbg-map.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ec-density-2013-2017-cbg-map-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>There was also almost a doubling of population density in the area north of old Ellicott City and south of US 40.  I don’t know if the latter is due to new development or to changes in household size.  However it’s worth noting that based on the 2010 population density map compared to the map for 2013-2017 immediately above, that area was originally less densely populated than most of Ellicott City, and whatever changes occurred brought it up to a “typical” density for the area.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/ec-density-2010-cb-map.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ec-density-2010-cb-map-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>As I did for Columbia, I also mapped density variations at the level of census blocks.  This uses population data available for the 2010 census but not for the American Community Survey.</p>
<p>This map is most notable for showing areas of Ellicott City that have very low population densities.  These include retail areas like the Long Gate shopping center north of MD 100 and east of US 29, park areas including Patapsco Valley State Park, Meadowbrook Park, and Centennial Park, and golf courses like the one at Turf Valley.</p>
<p>Note that as with Columbia some areas appear on this map that were not on the prior maps.  These reflect census blocks that are in the Ellicott City CDP, but that are in census block groups that are mostly not in Ellicott City.  The most notable example of this is the Turf Valley resort.</p>
<p>There is also a set of Ellicott City census blocks west of Centennial Lane that appear to be almost disconnected from the rest of the CDP.  These appear to be associated with the soccer fields and church at Covenant Park, with Centennial High School and Burleigh Manor Middle School another “low-density” area just north of there.  (Recall that “low-density” in this context refers to the size of the residential population in a given area, not how built-up the area is.)</p>
<p>You can find the code and data behind this post, as well as more Ellicott City population statistics, in the document “<a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/519881">Ellicott City, Maryland, population density</a>.”</p>
<p>That’s all for this week.  A reminder: if you find these posts interesting and useful please tell other people about them and encourage them to subscribe to the Civility and Truth mailing list.  Having readers who care enough to subscribe helps motivate me to send these posts out on a regular basis, and the more readers I have the more motivated I’ll be.  In the meantime, thanks for reading this post!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Population density in Columbia, Maryland</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/10/02/population-density-in-columbia-maryland/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 02 Oct 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/10/02/population-density-in-columbia-maryland/</guid>
      <description>Zooming in on the Columbia CDP at the census block and block group levels</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/columbia-density-2010-cbg-map.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/columbia-density-2010-cbg-map-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>Hey!  I finally managed to figure out to get a list of census block groups or census blocks for the Columbia CDP.  (As a reminder, “CDP” or “Census Designated Place” is US Census Bureau jargon for a population center that’s unincorporated.)  So now I can bring you some density maps that zoom in to focus on just Columbia as opposed to all of Howard County.</p>
<p>The map above shows population density variations as of the 2010 census for the various census block groups that are wholly or mostly within the Columbia CDP.  (Some census block groups contain only a small portion of the Columbia CDP.  I omitted them from the map.) There are 54 such census block groups, as compared to 154 census block groups within the county.  Thus from this point of view Columbia accounts for about a third of Howard County.</p>
<p>As I mentioned previously, census block groups are a nice “not too large, not too small” subdivision.  In 2010 the least populated census block group in Columbia contained 645 people, while the most populated census block group contained 3,632 people.  The smallest Columbia census block group covered an area of 0.12 square miles (about 79 acres), while the largest block group covered an area of 3.11 square miles.</p>
<p>A typical census block group is considerably smaller than a Columbia village: since there are nine Columbia villages, each village would contain about 6 census block groups on average if they were equally distributed.</p>
<p>In the map above I’ve shown more roads than in my previous maps, to help orient you vis-a-vis the various parts of Columbia.  I thought about also superimposing the boundaries for the various Columbia villages (data that’s available on the Howard County GIS site), but ran out of time to make this work.</p>
<p>The main take-away from the map above is the areas of Columbia that are relatively high-density vs. relatively low-density.  Relatively high-density areas include portions of Harpers Choice and Owen Brown villages, presumably due to apartment complexes there.  In contrast the Columbia Gateway area is primarily office space and thus low-density in terms of residential population.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/columbia-density-2010-cbg-graph.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/columbia-density-2010-cbg-graph-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>The histogram shows the distribution of density among the various Columbia census block groups in 2010.  Density varied from a low of 761 people per square mile to a high of 13,285 people per square mile, a difference of over an order of magnitude.  Overall population density for Columbia in 2010 was 3,187 people per square mile.</p>
<p>As a comparison, the lowest density Howard County census block group in 2010 had 151 people per square mile, and the highest density block group had 15,181 people per square mile.  Overall population density for the county in 2010 was 1,144 people per square mile.  Thus the least-dense Columbia census block group was over five times as dense as the lowest-density Howard County block group, and Columbia as a whole was about three times more densely populated than the county as a whole.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/columbia-density-changes-map.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/columbia-density-changes-map-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The next map shows changes in population density in Columbia between the 2010 census and the 2017 American Community Survey 5-year estimates (which reflect surveys done in 2013 through 2017).  Even over this relatively short period we can see significant decreases in density in the area of Harpers Choice village off Harpers Farm Road in northwest Columbia, and a increase in density in the area just south of there, north of Little Patuxent Parkway and east of Cedar Lane.  I don’t know if there’s been any change in the total number of housing units in those areas, so my initial guess is that these changes are due to changes in household size: older children moving out on the one hand, and more young children on the other.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/columbia-density-2010-cb-map.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/columbia-density-2010-cb-map-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>For my final map I decided to map density variations at the level of census blocks.  This uses population data available for the 2010 census but not for the American Community Survey.</p>
<p>Census blocks are very small: there are 1605 census blocks in the Columbia CDP, with an average area of 0.02 square miles (about 13 acres).  In 2010 over half of the census blocks contained no people at all, and the average population of a block was only 62 people; the largest block contained 2,696 people.</p>
<p>Because of the small size of census blocks the corresponding population density can be very high if the block mainly contains apartment complexes.  In 2010 there were several census blocks in Columbia with population densities over 50,000 people per square mile, and a few over 100,000 people per square mile.  At the other end of the spectrum the majority of census blocks in Columbia contain no people and thus have a population density of zero.</p>
<p>Because of this wide distribution of population densities I don’t think the block-level map is that useful for looking at population densities in residential areas.  However on this map it’s very easy to pick out the parts of Columbia that are devoted to office, retail, or industrial uses (in dark blue).  This includes the Columbia Gateway and Dobbin Road areas on either side of Snowden River Parkway, the areas along Broken Land Parkway, the Mall at Columbia and the future Merriweather District, and the area around the hospital and Howard Community College.</p>
<p>UPDATE: I was able to resolve the problems that were preventing me from publishing the underlying code and data for this post.  See the document “<a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/518294">Columbia, Maryland, population density</a>.”</p>
<p>That’s all for this week.  A reminder: if you find these posts interesting and useful please tell other people about them and encourage them to subscribe to the Civility and Truth mailing list.  Having readers who care enough to subscribe helps motivate me to send these posts out on a regular basis, and the more readers I have the more motivated I’ll be.  In the meantime, thanks for reading this post!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Moving to opportunity in Howard County</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/09/25/moving-to-opportunity-in-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 25 Sep 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/09/25/moving-to-opportunity-in-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>How welcoming should we be to those who wish to move here?</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/the-lines-between-us.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/the-lines-between-us-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>Should we in Howard County be encouraging more people to move here, especially people with lower incomes who hail from Baltimore city and elsewhere?  Should we instead be focusing instead on the people left behind in areas with high rates of poverty, helping them where they live now?  And the most basic question: Who is Howard County really for?</p>
<p>Recently I attended, read, and watched three things bearing on those questions: the initial meeting of the local <a href="https://www.hocoforall.com/">Howard County for All</a> advocacy group, the book <em><a href="https://thenewpress.com/books/lines-between-us">The Lines Between Us: Two Families and a Quest to Cross Baltimore’s Racial Divide</a></em> by local journalist <a href="https://www.lawrencelanahan.com/about">Lawrence Lanahan</a>, and an event on “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/events/moving-to-opportunity-whats-next/">Moving to opportunity: What’s next?</a>” put on by the Brookings Institution, a DC think tank.</p>
<p>Howard County for All was recently founded and/or promoted by a number of local activists, including former local blogger <a href="https://medium.com/@tjmayotte">T.J. Mayotte</a> and <a href="http://elevatemdpodcast.com/">Elevate Maryland</a> co-hosts Candace Dodson Reed (who moderated the September 12 launch event) and Tom Coale.  Its statement of purpose claims that “Howard County should be open to all,” that the county is “strengthened through inclusivity,” and in support of those values should “create and maintain a variety of housing options alongside a commitment to long-term affordability.”</p>
<p>In <em>The Lines Between Us</em>, Lanahan (who spoke at the Howard County for All launch event) weaves together the stories of three people: Mark Lange, who with his wife Betty was called by his Christian faith to move from their Harford County suburb to live in Baltimore’s Sandtown neighborhood; Nicole Smith, who moved herself and her young son from Baltimore City to Columbia with the help of a special housing voucher; and Barbara Samuels, a lawyer and activist who participated in the legal battles to open up affordable housing across the entire Baltimore metro area.</p>
<p>Finally, the Brookings event, broadcast over the Internet, featured presentations and discussions of research on the benefits to families moving from high-poverty areas to low-poverty areas, and whether and how government policies should promote this.</p>
<p>Since my writing tends to be data-focused I’ll spend most of my time discussing the Brookings event, and in particular the presentation on the Moving to Opportunity initiative, with occasional asides regarding the human impacts documented in Lanahan’s book and the ongoing controversies involving affordable housing and school redistricting in Howard County.  Since the Brookings event, Lanahan’s book, and the Howard County for All group all are coming at these issues from a progressive/liberal point of view, I’ll also try to acknowledge conservative and libertarian perspectives as well.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mto-slide-1.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mto-slide-1-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>As noted in the slide above (taken from the Brookings webcast, as are the other slides below), Moving to Opportunity was a Federal initiative to determine what would be the benefits (if any) of providing government assistance to help families with children move from high-poverty neighborhoods in central cities to low-poverty areas in the surrounding suburbs.</p>
<p>Stated this way the MTO project could be portrayed as a classic attempt at social engineering undertaken by central planners blind to social and economic realities.  However, it could also be seen as an attempt to overcome the ill effects of previous social engineering by central planners with different priorities.  Lawrence Lanahan devotes much space in his book to documenting government policies that had the effect of advantaging (mostly white) suburban dwellers at the expense of (mostly black) city dwellers, including radically changing the face of cities by destroying traditional neighborhoods in the name of “urban renewal.”</p>
<p>Some of these activities are in the past, but others are live issues today, most notably with respect to zoning.  In effect zoning laws employ government coercion to restrict the freedom of property owners to make what might be more productive uses of their land.  For example, a landowner might be allowed to build a large single-family home, but be prohibited from building a duplex, an accessory apartment, or a small apartment complex, even though these alternatives might be more lucrative for them and better address market demand.</p>
<p>In the past many Maryland counties, including Baltimore County in particular, went even further and specifically denied approvals for any attempts to build “affordable housing” projects, even when they otherwise conformed to zoning requirements.  They were supported in this by politicians and homeowners who agitated against poor inner-city residents moving to the suburbs.  As but one example, when 285 families from Baltimore public housing were chosen to receive special housing vouchers as part of the Moving to Opportunity initiative, <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1994-07-31-1994212009-story.html">opponents portrayed it</a> as the first step in moving thousands of poor Baltimore city residents into eastern Baltimore County, displacing existing residents.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mto-slide-2.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mto-slide-2-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Given the role of past government policy in isolating poor people and their housing from the rest of society, it’s understandable that some government officials would look for a way to try to remedy the effects of those policies by providing lower-income families opportunities to move to more mixed-income environments.  But leaving aside the political controversies, did this actually result in any benefits for such families?</p>
<p>The Moving to Opportunity initiative came in the wake of other small-scale experiments that suggested that there were major benefits to lower-income families moving to the suburbs.  The results from the MTO initiative itself were more measured, and the initial presentation at the Brookings event was essentially a recap of why the MTO results were worse than those from prior initiatives, and what the best case results might be.</p>
<p>Leading with something positive, there were apparently some benefits related to the physical and mental health of those lower-income adults who moved with their families to the suburbs, including in particular lower incidences of depression and diabetes.  Even though these benefits appear to be somewhat modest, they could both improve quality of life for the people involved and help lessen government health care spending on these chronic diseases.</p>
<p>Exactly why did the adult MTO participants have health improvements?  The speaker at the Brookings event was silent on that point, but I’ll speculate that it may have been associated with reduced stress.  (More on that point below.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mto-slide-3.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mto-slide-3-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>However, even though moving to the suburbs may have improved the health of lower-income adults, it ultimately didn’t make any real difference to their economic prospects.  The graph above tells the tale: the percentage of lower-income adults employed ended up being the same no matter whether they moved to the suburbs as part of the MTO initiative (“experimental group mean”), moved elsewhere in the city through the normal Section 8 housing voucher program (“Section 8 group mean”), or stayed where they were (“control group mean”).</p>
<p>Even for those employed it’s not clear that moving to the suburbs led to better-paying jobs.  For example, as described in <em>The Lines Between Us</em>, upon moving to Columbia Nicole Smith was able to complete an associate degree at Howard Community College and work as a child care provider.  While she was able to support herself and her son, in the end she did the same type of work her mother did, just in a different setting.</p>
<p>What’s the explanation for the failure of the MTO initiative to change these life outcomes?  My own personal theory goes somewhat as follows: We can view people as having both natural talents and certain personality attributes (e.g., being conscientious or extroverted) that suit them for certain types of work.  These talents and these personality attributes are in turn partly inborn and partly developed through people’s unique life experiences in their early years.</p>
<p>For example, the child who is naturally good with their hands can develop related skills (for example, as an carpenter or auto mechanic) if given the opportunity to do so.  A child who is naturally extroverted may find that they can stand out from their peers by emphasizing their ease and skill in public settings, and perhaps end up in sales or politics.  And so on.</p>
<p>But once they have become adults people have mostly developed whatever natural talents they possess, and their personalities are pretty much fully-formed.  Based on their talents and personalities there are some jobs for which they are well-suited, and some jobs in which they would likely never succeed.  (For example, though I’ve worked in sales environments for most of my career I know that my personality is ill-suited for life as a salesperson.)  Where one might move might affect this somewhat at the margins, but is unlikely to make a major difference.</p>
<p>A conservative could here point to Thomas Sowell’s “constrained vision”: that human nature puts limits on what society and especially government can accomplish in alleviating human suffering and promoting human flourishing.  Of course one could also go on to point out that everyone is equal in the sight of God, and that a well-ordered society can and should provide opportunities for every person to live a life of dignity and worth within the scope of whatever talents and other attributes they possess.</p>
<p>For us to do otherwise, to seek to close ourselves off from those less fortunate by birth and circumstance, and to countenance their isolation out of sight and mind, would be like attending a church whose doors are open only to the conspicuously righteous.  According to <em>The Lines Between Us</em> it was the struggle to reconcile their comfortable suburban lives with their felt duties as followers of Christ that led Mark and Betty Lange to leave the suburbs for life in Baltimore city.  For those of us who choose to stay in the suburbs it may also serve as motivation to welcome those from the city who wish to move here, and to assist them in doing so.</p>
<p>It’s also worth noting here what the MTO results do and not mean: They imply that if a <em>random</em> person from a low-income neighborhood moved to a higher-income neighborhood it would make little or no difference to their employment prospects.  But in real life the people who move from lower- to higher-income neighborhoods do not do so at random.  Given the financial and other barriers to moving, the lower-income people who do move are those who are most motivated to make the move, and most motivated to make for themselves a successful life in their new neighborhoods.</p>
<p>(Incidentally, this is exactly why small-scale programs prior to MTO showed such good results, because they had a “selection bias” of this type.  The random assignments in the MTO program removed the effort of this bias.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mto-slide-4.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mto-slide-4-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The discussion above was with reference to lower-income adults moving to the suburbs.  What about their children?  Here the picture is more complicated: all things equal, those children who moved to the suburbs as part of the MTO initiative as young children had increased incomes later in life compared to those who stayed where they were, while those who moved as teenagers did not.  (The differences in income shown in the graph may seem small, but the cumulative differences in lifetime earnings could be quite large.)</p>
<p>What could account for these different outcomes?  To go back to my hypothesis above, I presume that natural talents in children can be enhanced by opportunities they have to discover what they like doing and get better at it, and that personality development and socialization in children are strongly influenced by the environment outside the home, including both their peers at school and play and the overall influence of neighborhood adults.  (See for example <a href="/2019/03/03/how-do-schools-and-parents-matter/">my post on the ideas of Judith Rich Harris</a>.)</p>
<p>Children who moved as youngsters would then have more opportunities to develop their inborn talents and a longer period of socialization to prevailing norms.  They would be analogous to the young children of immigrants, who may have begun life speaking a different language but then learn to speak a new one fluently.  On the other hand, children who moved as teenagers would already be well on the way to full development of their talents and personalities, and the new environment would likely have less effect on them.  They would be like immigrants who arrive as older teenagers or young adults, who may learn a new language but still speak with an accent.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mto-slide-5.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mto-slide-5-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The speaker at the Brookings event then went on, as speakers at such events typically do, to discuss implications for policy, in this case various options for improving the effectiveness of programs that encourage lower-income families to move to higher-income neighborhoods.  The most obvious of these is to focus on families with young children, for reasons discussed above.  The others you can read on the slide, but I’ll recap them briefly: provide additional counseling, allow for higher rents, and work with tenants, landlords, and housing authorities to improve the experiences of these families and make it more beneficial to rent to them.</p>
<p>(You can find more information about these recommendations in the article “<a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/neighborhoods-matter-for-opportunity-time-for-more-place-conscious-policy/">Neighborhoods matter for opportunity: Time for more place-conscious policy</a>” on the Brookings web site, the “Collinson and Ludwig, forthcoming” article referenced on the slide.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mto-slide-6.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mto-slide-6-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Of course, this assumes that moving families is the best way to approach this problem.  The alternative approach, again as outlined by the speaker, is to try to improve high-poverty neighborhoods directly.  Here the key insight was that families participating in the MTO experiment wanted to move in large part because they felt unsafe living where they were, and wanted to escape those neighborhoods for those in which they could be more secure.</p>
<p>This harks back to my discussion in an <a href="/2018/04/15/seven-answers-racial-equality/">earlier post</a> about the importance of reducing crime in the context of promoting racial equality, and to do so in a way that (as I wrote later) “both protects and respects” the people living in these neighborhoods.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-quintiles-2017.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-quintiles-2017-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>Let’s bring this back to Howard County.  The county has replicated in miniature the income and housing patterns of the larger Baltimore metro area, with a relatively low-income high-density core almost encircled by relatively high-income low-density areas.  Here Columbia plays the role of Baltimore city and western Howard the role of Baltimore County and other suburban jurisdictions.  What, if anything, should we try to do about the resulting patterns of segregation?</p>
<p>This question is at the heart of the ongoing controversies in Howard County over development, affordable housing, and school redistricting.  I can’t offer a definitive answer to the question, but I see at least three possible paths for the county:</p>
<p>The first is simply to maintain the status quo: Let existing patterns of segregation remain roughly the same, but at the same time make some moves toward maintaining affordability of housing in select areas of the county, typically in and around Columbia.</p>
<p>The second takes us down a path similar to that traveled by Silicon Valley and other high-tech meccas we often wish to emulate: In this scenario the problem of school overcrowding would be addressed by limiting development as much as possible (with possible exceptions for senior living projects).  With development brought to a near halt, prices for existing housing would soar as demand for Howard County’s “good schools” and quality of life remained high.</p>
<p>Political pressure would then rise for existing homeowners to be protected against tax increases, and for the burden of paying for new schools and other new county services to be put on new residents as much as possible.  The result would be to price out low-income or even moderate-income families.  The adults in such families would still be needed to fill a wide range of jobs in Howard County, but they would have to commute in from other places and then leave the county at the end of the day.</p>
<p>The third scenario would see more aggressive efforts to reduce residential segregation and make Howard County more affordable to anyone wishing to live here.  This might include school redistricting along the lines of the proposed plan, an expanded program of school construction to get ahead of demand for housing, and placing affordable housing projects in areas outside of Columbia.  It might also include encouraging more development in selected areas in west Howard, for example along commuter routes like I-70 and MD 32, and extending county services into those areas as necessary to support higher-density housing.</p>
<p>Which path we take depends on the values we each think are most important, and the political power we can bring to bear in coalition with others.  My own inclination is for us to pursue the path of making Howard County a county that as much as possible is open to all who aspire to live here, not one populated by a monoculture of highly-educated high earners singularly obsessed with home values and test scores.  That reflects the values I hold, and is why I support the efforts of groups like Howard County for All.</p>
<p>As always, if you find these posts interesting and useful please tell other people about them and encourage them to subscribe to the Civility and Truth mailing list.  Having readers who care enough to subscribe helps motivate me to send these posts out on a regular basis, and the more readers I have the more motivated I’ll be.  In the meantime, thanks for reading this post!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>More on Howard County population density</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/09/19/more-on-howard-county-population-density/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 19 Sep 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/09/19/more-on-howard-county-population-density/</guid>
      <description>Looking at density variations in a slightly different way.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-quintiles-2010.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-quintiles-2010-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>This is a brief follow-up to last week’s post.  I had hoped to be able to take a closer look at density variations in Columbia and Ellicott City.  However I haven’t yet found a good way (at least via the Census API) to get a list of census block groups or census blocks for the Columbia and Ellicott City CDPs.  (“CDP” or “Census Designated Place” is US Census Bureau jargon for a population center that’s unincorporated.)</p>
<p>I also happened to think about whether the census block group boundaries had changed from 2010 to 2017.  After looking at this I concluded that they probably had not, but this took a while to nail down.</p>
<p>The one new thing I did was to produce a map of density variations based on the quintiles the various census block groups fell into.  In other words, in the map above the census block groups in dark blue (quintile 1) are the 20% of all census block groups with the lowest population density in 2010, while the census block groups in yellow (quintile 5) are the 20% of all census block groups with the highest population density in 2010.  The other areas in light blue, green, and orange (quintiles 2, 3, and 4 respectively) are intermediate between those two groups.</p>
<p>I think this map does a slightly better job of letting you tell at a glance which are the most dense and least dense parts of the county, as well as which areas are roughly in the middle in terms of density.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-quintiles-2013-2017.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-quintiles-2013-2017-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>Here’s a similar map using the 2017 ACS 5-year estimates, which cover the 2013-2017 timeframe.  At first glance I can’t see any differences between this map and the prior map.  This means that even though some areas of the county may have experienced changes in population density between 2010 and 2013-2017, the changes weren’t large enough to make any real difference in the overall density picture.</p>
<p>I’m going to try again to do density maps for Columbia and Ellicott City.  In the meantime, see the revised version of “<a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/513490">Howard County density trends by census block groups</a>” for the code behind the maps above.</p>
<p>That’s all for this week.  A reminder: if you find these posts interesting and useful please tell other people about them and encourage them to subscribe to the Civility and Truth mailing list.  Having readers who care enough to subscribe helps motivate me to send these posts out on a regular basis, and the more readers I have the more motivated I’ll be.  In the meantime, thanks for reading this post!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County: divided by density?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/09/12/howard-county-divided-by-density/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 12 Sep 2019 08:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/09/12/howard-county-divided-by-density/</guid>
      <description>Some areas of Howard County are over a hundred times more densely populated than others.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-map-2010.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-map-2010-embed.png"
         alt="Map of Howard County population density based on 2010 census"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A map of population density of each of the 154 census block groups in Howard County, Maryland. Click for a higher-resolution version.  Map by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Some areas of Howard County are over a hundred times more densely populated than others.</em></p>
<p>A long-time theme in writings about Howard County is the distinction between the more densely populated suburban and semi-urban areas like Columbia and the less densely populated rural areas in the western part of the county.  This has implications for issues from political affiliations to school redistricting, and of course for affordable housing as well.</p>
<p>In this post I’m going to ignore those issues though, and just look at the simple facts about density variation across the county.  The map above shows density variations as of the 2010 census&mdash;a data source I chose because it contains accurate population counts at a fairly fine-grained level.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  The map shows population densities (people per square mile) for each of the census block groups within the county.</p>
<p>A census block group is a geography defined by the US Census Bureau that is one level below a census tract.  There are currently 154 census block groups in Howard County, compared to 55 census tracts. The smallest geography in US Census data is the census block, one level below the census block group.  There are currently 4,845 census blocks defined for Howard County.</p>
<p>Census tracts are relatively large, about 6,000 people or so on average in Howard County.  On the other hand, census blocks are too small: more than half of all census blocks in Howard County contained no people at all in the 2010 census.</p>
<p>Census block groups are a nice “not too large, not too small” subdivision of the county’s overall area.  In 2010 the least populated census block group contained 645 people, while the most populated census block group contained 3,632 people.  The smallest block group covered an area of 0.1 square miles (about 64 acres), while the largest block group covered an area of 13.4 square miles.</p>
<p>A typical census block group is thus comparable in both size and population to a traditional village or small town.  It is large enough to be a recognizable “place,” but small enough to have its own identity distinct from that of other places in the county.</p>
<p>What about density?  One of the most surprising things to me in doing this analysis was the wide variation in population density across the county.  Population density in 2010 varied from a low of 151 people per square mile to a high of 15,181 people per square mile, a difference of two orders of magnitude.  In comparison, overall population density for the county in 2010 was 1,144 people per square mile (287,085 people divided by the county land area of 251 square miles).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-quintiles-2010.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-quintiles-2010-embed.png"
         alt="Map of Howard County population density quintiles based on 2010 census"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The 154 census block groups in Howard County, Maryland, divided into five different groups based on their population density in the 2010 census. Click for a higher-resolution version.  Map by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The map above is a variation on the first map.  It is based on the same 2010 census data, but divides the census block groups into five groups (or “quintiles”) of 31 block groups each (or 30, for the highest quintile).  This map shows much more clearly that almost all of the census block groups with the highest population density are in Columbia and eastern Howard County, and almost all of the census block groups with the lowest population density are in western Howard County.</p>
<p>(Some of the major exceptions are areas like Columbia Gateway and the light industrial districts east of I-95 that have little or no residential construction.  Here “low population density” is not the same as “not built up.”)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-histogram-2010.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-histogram-2010-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County population density histogram based on 2010 census"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A histogram showing the number of census block groups in Howard County, Maryland, that fall into certain ranges of population density.  Click for a higher-resolution version.  Graph by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As shown in the above histogram, and also in the first map above, there are many census block groups in Howard County that had a population density of less than 500 people per square mile in 2010. At the other end of the spectrum a few census block groups had population densities of well over 10,000 people per square mile.</p>
<p>The largest number of census block groups fell into the range of 2,000&ndash;2,500 people per square mile; the typical (median) block group had a population density of about 2,400 people per square mile.  (This is different from the overall population density of Howard County of 1,441 people per square mile quoted above.)</p>
<p>To help think about what these numbers mean, consider a square mile, about 640 acres.  Suppose we have a few neighborhoods of single-family houses on 3- to 4-acre lots, with three or four people per house. With 50&ndash;100 total houses we have a total of 150&ndash;400 acres and 150&ndash;400 people.  Throw in two or three 100&ndash;150 acre farms plus road surfaces and open spaces and you’d have a typical Howard County rural census block group with a population density of 200&ndash;500 people per square mile.</p>
<p>Now suppose instead we have 0.1 square miles, about 64 acres, occupied by five or six apartment buildings with 50&ndash;100 units each, with two to three people per unit.  Now we have 500&ndash;1,800 people total in that 0.1 square mile area, for a total of 5,000 to 18,000 people per square mile&mdash;in other words, a typical semi-urban setting in Columbia or eastern Howard County.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-changes-2010-2017.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-pop-density-changes-2010-2017-embed.png"
         alt="Map of Howard County population density changes based on 2010 census and 2013-2017 ACS estimates"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A map showing estimated changes in population density of census block groups in Howard County, Maryland, between the 2010 census and the 2013&ndash;2017 timeframe.  Click for a higher-resolution version.  Map by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>How is population density in the various parts of Howard County changing over time?  It’s hard to get a good picture of this in between censuses, because the available population estimates are from surveys taken over multiple years (from 2013 through 2017 for the latest available data) and have fairly high margins of error at the level of census block groups (up to 30% or more above or below the estimates themselves).</p>
<p>The map above is an attempt to show density changes from the 2010 census forward, using the American Community Survey 2017 5-year estimates.  As with population density itself, there is wide variation in population density changes.</p>
<p>A few areas stand out as having significant increases in population density, from 50 to 100%.  These appear to be include the Maple Lawn Farms development in Fulton as well as adjacent neighborhoods south of MD 216, areas along US 1 south and north of MD 175, and areas near downtown Ellicott City.</p>
<p>Other areas apparently experienced decreases in population density. Assuming that the number of housing units did not decrease in those areas, this likely was caused by the number of people per household decreasing, for example due to children leaving families and “empty nesters” remaining.  (Additional census data, for example on household size and the ages of household members, should be able to confirm or refute this idea.)</p>
<p>To sum up: we may argue about how the density divide in Howard County came about and what it all means, but I don’t think there’s any dispute that it exists.  It is especially clear in western Columbia, where the drop off in density west and north of MD 108 and (to a lesser extent) south of MD 32 is particularly dramatic.  It’s also apparent that new development and demographic changes in family size are having disparate impacts across the county.</p>
<p>Combining this density data with information on socioeconomic and political variables could uncover some interesting patterns. Hopefully I’ll have time in the future to look at this.</p>
<h2 id="further-exploration">Further exploration</h2>
<p>For more on how I created the maps and histogram above, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/513490">Howard County density trends by census block groups</a>” shows the R code used to produce these and other graphs.</li>
<li>My <a href="https://gitlab.com/frankhecker/hocodata">hocodata code repository</a> includes copies of the R Markdown files for this and another analyses.  (Look in the “affordability” subdirectory.)</li>
<li>If you sign up for a free account on the <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/">Rstudio.cloud</a> service you can open and make a copy of my <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/project/353602">hocodata project</a> for this and other analyses, and try your hand at it yourself. (Again, look in the “affordability” subdirectory, and check out the <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/learn/primers">RStudio primers</a> to learn how to use the system.)</li>
</ul>
<p>I also did two other articles focusing specifically on population density in <a href="/2019/10/02/population-density-in-columbia-maryland/">Columbia</a> and <a href="/2019/10/09/population-density-in-ellicott-city-maryland/">Ellicott City</a> for my (now deprecated) <em>Civility and Truth</em> newsletter.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I included some major Howard County highways on the map to help readers orient themselves: interstates, US highways, Maryland numbered routes, and roads with “Parkway” in their name.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How burdened are Howard County renters and homeowners?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/09/11/how-burdened-are-howard-county-renters-and-homeowners/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 11 Sep 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/09/11/how-burdened-are-howard-county-renters-and-homeowners/</guid>
      <description>Housing costs as a percentage of household income across the county.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-renters-map.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-renters-map-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>I’m back this week with some more data analysis and maps, this time regarding the relative cost of housing in Howard County for both renters and homeowners.  But before we get to the maps, a brief aside on some ways in which the impact of housing costs can be measured:</p>
<p>The first way is to look at the median percentage of household income taken up by housing costs.  That is, for each household, first compute the percentage of its income taken up by housing costs.  Then compute the median of all such values, such that half of all households spend more than that percentage and half less.</p>
<p>An alternative measure of housing costs is the percentage of households whose housing costs exceed a certain amount, typically taken to be 30% of household income.  Such households are said to be “housing cost burdened.”  (Households spending more than 50% of their income on housing are often referred to as “severely burdened.”)</p>
<p>Finally, others have suggested looking at residual income, that is, how much income households have left over after paying for housing.</p>
<p>For this analysis I use the median percentage of housing costs relative to income, mainly because these estimates are directly available at the census tract level in the American Community Survey 5-year estimates.  (I may do an analysis based on housing cost burden in my next post, and am looking further at how one might do at least a simple form of residual income analysis.)</p>
<p>Anyway, back to the map above: It shows for each census tract in Howard County the median percentage of household income spent on “gross rent”&mdash;rent plus utilities and fuel&mdash;in the 2013&ndash;2017 timeframe.  (There are lots of gray areas on this map and one of the maps below because for some census tracts there were too few renters or homeowners to calculate an estimate, or the estimates were too unreliable.)</p>
<p>It looks if there are a number of places in Howard County where people spend fairly high percentages of their household income on rent and related expenses.  Most of these appear to be in Columbia and eastern Howard County, but there’s also an area in western Howard County where the typical renter looks to be housing cost burdened.</p>
<p><a href="assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-renters-graph.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-renters-graph-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>The histogram above shows a different view of the same data.  It shows the number of Howard County census tracts falling into different categories: median percentage of rent relative to income between 15% and 20%, between 20% and 25%, and so on.  (Again I’ve omitted census tracts with no estimates or unreliable estimates.)  The dashed vertical line shows the median percentage of rent to income for all of Howard County (28%), and the solid vertical line shows the 30% figure above which a household is considered to be housing cost burdened.</p>
<p>As noted above, there are a lot of census tracts in Howard County where the median household spends more that 30% of household income on rent and related expanses.</p>
<p><a href="assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-owners-1-map.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-owners-1-map-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>The next map has the same color scale, but shows the median selected costs of housing as a percentage of household income for homeowners who have a mortgage.  (“Selected costs of housing” includes not only the mortgage payments but also utilities, insurances, taxes, and condo fees&mdash;which would appear to include Columbia Association annual charges.)</p>
<p>Based on this map it appears that typical homeowners in Howard County with mortgages generally spend relatively less on housing than renters.</p>
<p><a href="assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-owners-1-graph.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-owners-1-graph-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>The histogram above confirms this initial impression: In all Howard County tracts with valid estimates median homeowners with mortgages pay less than 30% of household income in housing costs.  The median percentage of housing costs to income for the county as a whole was 22% for homeowners with mortgages in the 2013-2017 timeframe, significantly lower than the 28% figure for renters.</p>
<p>The data as presented don’t really explain this difference: it could be due to relatively higher rents and related expenses for renters, or relatively lower household incomes for renters, or both.  (And relatively lower household incomes in turn could be due to lower incomes in general, or fewer numbers of workers per household.)  This is a possible subject for future posts.</p>
<p><a href="assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-owners-2-map.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-owners-2-map-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>The final map shows the median selected costs of housing as a percentage of household income for homeowners who do <em>not</em> have a mortgage.  These households presumably consist of older people who’ve paid off their mortgages, people wealthy enough to pay cash for their homes, or people who’ve inherited homes from their parents.  There are relatively few of these people, so most census tracts do not have reliable estimates for their housing costs.</p>
<p>These households appear to be in even better shape than homeowners with mortgages: their median percentage of income spent on housing is fairly low across the entire county.</p>
<p><a href="assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-owners-2-graph.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-housing-costs-owners-2-graph-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>The final histogram confirms this: In almost all census tracts the median percentage of household income spent on housing by homeowners without mortgages is less than 15%.  The median percentage for the county overall is 10%.</p>
<p>So, what does this all mean?</p>
<p>People in all three categories receive government subsidies of one sort or another: renter can be eligible for <a href="https://www.hud.gov/topics/housing_choice_voucher_program_section_8">housing choice vouchers</a> (also known as Section 8 vouchers), homeowners can deduct mortgage interest and real estate taxes (although real estate taxes are no longer deductible on Federal tax returns), and older homeowners can get additional help with housing costs (for example, the <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/Departments/Finance/Billing-and-Payments/Real-Property-Taxes/Tax-Credits/Senior-Tax-Credit">Howard County senior tax credit</a>) even if they don’t have a mortgage.</p>
<p>After taking all those subsidies into account, it appears that relatively speaking renters are worse off in Howard County than homeowners.  One way to address this imbalance would be to provide further subsidies to renters, whether at the county, state, or national level.  Another way would to increase the stock of affordable rental housing, whether through a specific focus on building below-market-rate units, or by building more apartments and other rentable housing in general.</p>
<p>How best to provide affordable housing is a topic of great debate in Howard County and elsewhere.  I don’t have a definitive opinion on this matter yet, so I’ll sign off this week with the promise that I’ll try to look at this issue in more detail later when I have time to do more research.  For now you can check out the code and data behind this post in the article “<a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/526164">Howard County, Maryland, relative housing costs by census tract</a>.”</p>
<p>As always, if you find these posts interesting and useful please tell other people about them and encourage them to subscribe to the Civility and Truth mailing list.  Having readers who care enough to subscribe helps motivate me to send these posts out on a regular basis, and the more readers I have the more motivated I’ll be.  In the meantime, thanks for reading this post!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Home value differences within Howard County</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/07/10/home-value-differences-within-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 10 Jul 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/07/10/home-value-differences-within-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>Looking at median home values and their changes across census tracts.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-quintiles-2010.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-quintiles-2010-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>This is a follow-up to my <a href="/2019/07/05/maryland-home-values-havent-rebounded/">post about home value declines across Maryland</a>, and a companion to my <a href="/2019/07/07/which-areas-of-howard-county-are-most-and-least-affluent/">post about median household income within Howard County</a>.  For reasons discussed in that post, this analysis covers only the period from 2010 forward, and in particular compares median home values in the 2006-2010 time frame with median home values in the 2013-2017 time frame.</p>
<p>As with median household income, the margins of error for median home value estimates at the census tract level are high, up to 10% or more above and below the estimates themselves.  So again I decided to divide the 55 Howard County census tracts into 5 quintiles of 11 tracts each, with quintile 1 containing the 11 census tracts with the lowest median home values, quintile 5 containing the 11 census tracts with the highest median home values, and the other quintiles in between.</p>
<p>The result is the map above, showing which census tracts are in which quintiles according to the 2010 American Community Survey 5-year estimates of median home values.  The areas with high and low median home values should not surprise anyone familiar with Howard County real estate: with one exception the census tracts with the highest home values are west of US 29, and the tracts with the lowest median home values are east of US 29 or in Columbia.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-changes-graph.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-changes-graph-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>How did this situation change over time?  In the graph above I show how the average (inflation-adjusted) median home value for each 2010 quintile changed from 2006&ndash;2010 to 2013&ndash;2017.</p>
<p>(A reminder here: I write “2010 quintiles” because the census tracts are grouped according to their rank in 2010.  If a tract was assigned to, say, quintile 2, in 2010 then it will still be considered in quintile 2 when comparing 2013-2017 to 2006-2010.  Also, as noted in the last post averaging median values is not strictly speaking correct, but is the best that can be done in the circumstances.)</p>
<p>From the graph above we see that all quintiles experienced a decline in average inflation-adjusted median home values over the time frame in question.  The quintile with the largest decline in percentage terms was quintile 1, for which average inflation-adjusted median home values dropped 19% from 2006&ndash;2010 to 2013&ndash;2017.  The quintile with the smallest decline in percentage terms was quintile 3, with a 13% drop.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-changes-map.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-changes-map-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This map is an alternate approach to showing the changes in median home value between the 2006-2010 and 2013-2017 time frames.  It shows the percentage declines in median home value for each census tract in Howard County.  No census tract had an increase in median home value between the two time frames, and only a couple of census tracts experienced small declines.  At the other end of the spectrum a few tracts experienced declines of between 30&ndash;40% in median home value.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-quintiles-2013-2017.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-quintiles-2013-2017-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>The final map shows the distribution of census tracts among median home value quintiles based on the 2017 ACS 5-year estimates.  (In other words, I recalculated which tracts were in the top 20%, etc., based on the newer figures.) The overall picture is similar to that for the 2010 map (high median home values west of US 29, low median home values east of US 29), but some tracts have moved up to a higher quintile or down to a lower quintile.  This may be due to how home values fared in those tracts, or simply to random errors in the estimates.  (Recall my note above about relatively high margins of error for tract-level estimates.)</p>
<p>For the code and data used to produce the graphs above, see “<a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/511090">Howard County median home value trends by census tracts</a>.”</p>
<p>That’s all for this week.  A reminder: if you find these posts interesting and useful please tell other people about them and encourage them to subscribe to the Civility and Truth mailing list.  Having readers who care enough to subscribe helps motivate me to send these posts out on a regular basis, and the more readers I have the more motivated I’ll be.  In the meantime, thanks for reading this post!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Which areas of Howard County are most and least affluent?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/07/07/which-areas-of-howard-county-are-most-and-least-affluent/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 07 Jul 2019 19:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/07/07/which-areas-of-howard-county-are-most-and-least-affluent/</guid>
      <description>I look at median household income within Howard County, Maryland, and how it has changed.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-quintiles-2010.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-quintiles-2010-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County median household income quintiles for 2006-2010"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Click for a higher-resolution version.  Graph by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I look at median household income within Howard County, Maryland, and how it has changed.</em></p>
<p>I’m continuing my look at median household income, in pursuit of my ultimate goal of learning more about the issues around housing affordability in Howard County.</p>
<p>After my <a href="/2019/06/02/how-affluent-is-howard-county-really/">previous post</a> about Howard County median household income compared to other local jurisdictions, I now turn my attention to looking at median household income within the different parts of Howard County.  Unfortunately data at the census tract level (the next level below county level as far as the US Census Bureau is concerned) doesn’t go back very far, and has some issues that make analysis more difficult.</p>
<p>First, median household income estimates for census tracts are not available before 2009, at least for Howard County.  Second, the boundaries for Howard County census tracts changed from 2009 to 2010 (presumably as part of the work on the 2010 census).  (Fortunately, the census tract boundaries have been stable since then.)</p>
<p>Also, figures for median household income for census tracts are available only in the American Community Survey 5-year estimates. There are no 1-year estimates available as there are for counties and cities.  This means that the 2010 median household income estimates published for Howard County census tracts actually reflect income surveys in the years 2006&ndash;2010, the 2011 estimates reflect surveys in the years 2007&ndash;2011, and so on.  For this reason the US Census Bureau recommends not comparing 5-year estimates from overlapping sets of years, for example comparing 2011 5-year estimates to 2010 5-year estimates.</p>
<p>I’ve therefore chosen to compare only the 2010 and 2017 5-year estimates, in order to get both the earliest and latest comparable data.</p>
<p>Next, the margins of error for median household income at the census tract level are very high, typically 10&ndash;20% or even higher relative to the base income figures.  That means that ranking individual census tracts based on their median household income doesn’t really make sense, given that the relative positions of tracts on the list will in large part reflect random measurement errors.</p>
<p>Finally, there are 55 census tracts in Howard County, one for every 6,000 people on average.  (The 2018 ACS population estimate for Howard County is about 323,000 people.)  Graphing information on individual census tracts makes for a cluttered graph, unless you either plot data on a map or group census tracts together in some way.</p>
<p>In the map above I did both: I took the 55 census tracts and divided them into 5 groups or “quintiles” of 11 census tracts each, based on their median household income 5-year estimates for 2010.  Quintile 1 contains the 11 census tracts with the lowest median household incomes and quintile 5 contains the 11 census tracts with the highest median household incomes, with the other quintiles containing tracts with income values intermediate between the lowest and highest.</p>
<p>I then plotted the census tracts on a map of Howard County, with each tract colored according to the quintile it’s in.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  The results are as one might expect: the census tracts with the lowest median household incomes tend to be in eastern Howard County and/or in Columbia, while the tracts with higher median household incomes tend to be in western Howard County.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-quintile-changes-2010-2017.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-quintile-changes-2010-2017-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County inflation-adjusted average median household income changes by quintile from 2006-2010 to 2013-2017"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Click for a higher-resolution version.  Graph by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>How did the median household income for the various census tracts in Howard County change from 2010 to 2017&mdash;or, more correctly, from the 2006&ndash;2010 timeframe to the 2013&ndash;2017 timeframe?</p>
<p>The graph above shows one way to look at this: I took the income quintiles from above, computed the averages of the inflation-adjusted median household incomes for the census tracts in each quintile, and graphed the results for 2017 compared to 2010.  Thus, for example, for the census tracts in quintile 1 (the lowest-income quintile) I computed the average from the 2010 5-year estimates of inflation-adjusted median household income for all of those 11 census tracts.  I computed similar averages for the other quintiles, and then repeated the process using the 2017 5-year estimates.</p>
<p>As a side note, averaging the median incomes in this way is not strictly speaking correct.  The correct method would be to aggregate all the individual household incomes for all the tracts in a quintile, and then compute a median household income for the quintile overall. However this is not possible because the US Census Bureau does not release data for individual households within a census tract. Averaging the median household incomes for the tracts is the next-best thing.</p>
<p>There’s another subtlety here as well: Many graphs showing changes between income quintiles over time actually reflect different sets of people, households, or geographies between the different timeframes. For example, if in the graph the 2010 figures were to reflect the quintiles as they exist in 2010, and the 2017 figures were to reflect the quintiles as they exist in 2017, then we would not necessarily be comparing like to like.  That’s because a given census tract may have moved from one quintile to another over time.</p>
<p>To avoid this problem I had the 2017 values in the graph reflect the income values for the same sets of quintiles as for the 2010 values: if a census tract were in, say, quintile 3 in 2010 then it was counted as part of the same set of tracts for 2017.</p>
<p>Take-aways from this graph (and the underlying data, not shown here) are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>The Howard County census tracts in the lowest quintile in 2010 (i.e., those with the lowest median household income) had a substantial increase in average (real) median household income between the 2006&ndash;2010 and 2013&ndash;2017 time frames, amounting to about a $7,000 increase in real terms or a 9% increase in percentage. This was actually the largest increase of any of the quintiles in both absolute and percentage terms.</li>
<li>On the other hand, the census tracts in the next-to-lowest quintile in 2010 (quintile 2, just above quintile 1) experienced the largest decline in average (real) median household income between the two time frames in both absolute and percentage terms, about $6,000 or 5%.</li>
<li>The census tracts in the highest quintile in 2010 (quintile 5, the 20% of census tracts with the highest median household income) had a slight decrease in average (real) median household income between the two time frames, about $5,000 or 3%.</li>
<li>Finally, the census tracts in the other higher-income quintiles (quintiles 3 and 4) had slight decreases in average (real) median household income.</li>
</ul>
<p>The first item above is somewhat counterintuitive: does it mean that relatively less affluent people in Howard County actually did better income-wise between 2006&ndash;2010 and 2013&ndash;2017 than more affluent people? That’s one possible interpretation, but not the only one, and I suspect not the most likely one.</p>
<p>Remember that even though the census tracts may not have changed between the 2010 and 2017 5-year estimates graphed above, the people living within those census tracts did not necessarily remain the same.  In particular, it’s possible that many people living in the least affluent census tracts experienced a decline in household income so severe that they could no longer afford to live in Howard County.</p>
<p>Under this hypothetical scenario the people who left would presumably then be replaced by people with slighter higher incomes who <em>could</em> afford to live in Howard County.  As a result of this turnover the median household income of these least affluent census tracts would then increase, because the least affluent residents of those tracts would have moved to other counties.</p>
<p>This hypothetical scenario would also explain the difference between the experiences of the quintile 1 census tracts vs. the quintile 2 census tracts: Unlike those in quintile 1, the people in the quintile 2 tracts were presumably not “on the bubble” in terms of their being able to afford to live in Howard County.  They may have suffered declines in household income between the two time frames, but those declines were not so large as to force them to leave the county.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-tract-changes-2010-2017.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-tract-changes-2010-2017-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County median household income changes by census tract from 2006-2010 to 2013-2017"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Click for a higher-resolution version.  Graph by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This next map shows changes in median household income between the 2010 and 2015 5-year estimates for each census tract, expressed in percentage terms.  Again the calculated changes are based on median household incomes in constant 2017 dollars, so they reflect real changes rather than changes due to inflation.</p>
<p>Harking back to the discussion above, note that two of the census tracts with increases in median household income were those in Elkridge east of I-95 and north of MD 100.  These were in quintile 1 (lowest 20% of all tracts by income) in 2010.  On the other hand, the census tract east of I-95 between MD 32 and MD 175, which was in quintile 2 in 2010, experienced one of the largest declines in median household income.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-quintiles-2017.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-quintiles-2017-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County median household income quintiles for 2013-2017"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Click for a higher-resolution version.  Graph by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This final map, like the first map above, shows Howard County census tracts in the different income quintiles, this time based on the 2017 ACS 5-year estimates for median household income instead of the 2010 estimates.</p>
<p>Note that of the three census tracts discussed above, the first two moved up from quintile 1 (as measured by the 2010 estimates) to quintile 2 (as measured according to the 2017 estimate), while the third moved down from quintile 2 to quintile 1.</p>
<p>I’m done with looking at median household income, at least for now. In my next post I’ll turn my attention to median home values.</p>
<h2 id="further-exploration">Further exploration</h2>
<p>For more on how I created the graphs above, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://rpubs.com/frankhecker/hocomd-census-tract-median-household-income-trends">Howard County median household income trends by census tracts</a>” shows the R code used to produce these and other graphs.</li>
<li>My <a href="https://gitlab.com/frankhecker/hocodata">hocodata code repository</a> includes copies of the R Markdown files for this and another analyses.  (Look in the “affordability” subdirectory.)</li>
<li>If you sign up for a free account on the <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/">Rstudio.cloud</a> service you can open and make a copy of my <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/project/353602">hocodata project</a> for this and other analyses, and try your hand at it yourself. (Again, look in the “affordability” subdirectory, and check out the <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/learn/primers">RStudio primers</a> to learn how to use the system.)</li>
</ul>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I included some major Howard County highways on the map to help readers orient themselves. However to reduce clutter I included only highways that are also census tract boundaries along part or all of their length. That’s why highways like US 1 and MD 97 are not displayed.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County home values have not recovered</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/06/19/howard-county-home-values-have-not-recovered/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 19 Jun 2019 12:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/06/19/howard-county-home-values-have-not-recovered/</guid>
      <description>Median home values for Howard County vs. other local juridictions.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-vs-other.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-vs-other-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>UPDATE 2024/01/04: This post originally appeared on my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter.  I’ve moved it to my main site in an effort to collect all of my writing in one place.</p>
<p>After looking at the <a href="/2019/06/02/how-affluent-is-howard-county-really/">median household income of Howard County relative to other local jurisdictions</a>, I now look at median home values.  As I noted previously, the earliest county-level data I can find dates from 2005 and the beginning of the American Community Survey.</p>
<p>The graph above shows Howard County median home values over time compared to a select set of other jurisdictions.  (I chose the same jurisdictions as in my previous analysis of median household income, for the same reasons.)</p>
<p>All values are in current dollars as of the year of the survey.  Thus, for example, the values for 2005 are expressed in 2005 dollars, the values for 2006 are in 2006 dollars, and so on.  (I did not use inflation-adjusted values because housing costs are themselves a major component of the Consumer Price Index.  Multiplying by a CPI deflator would therefore understate any actual rises in home values.)</p>
<p>Here’s some immediate takeaways from the graph above:</p>
<ul>
<li>Unlike other counties (not to mention the US as a whole), Howard County home values have not yet fully recovered from the Great Recession, and have been essentially stagnant since 2014.  The same is true for Montgomery County and Baltimore city, as well as possibly for Anne Arundel County.</li>
<li>In contrast, home values in Virginia counties are rising, and in the case of Fairfax County have fully recovered (at least in nominal terms).</li>
<li>The District of Columbia has experienced a major rise in home values, over 50% since the start of the time period covered in the graph.</li>
<li>Stafford County, Virginia, has significantly lower home values than Howard County, but a median household income that is essentially equivalent to that of Howard County.  (See my previous article.)</li>
</ul>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-ranking.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-home-value-ranking-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This second graph shows the ranking of Howard County over the years versus the most affluent local jurisdictions.  (Note that these rankings do not reflect home values in counties or county-equivalents with populations less than 65,000.  These jurisdictions are too small to be included in the American Community Survey 1-year estimates.)</p>
<p>The story is similar to that from the previous graph:</p>
<ul>
<li>Howard County has gone from being in the top 25 counties (or county-equivalents) based on median home value to barely being in the top 50.  (Its actual rank for 2017 was at number 45.)</li>
<li>As it did in the median household income rankings, the District of Columbia has come from being out of the top 50 to being in the top 20 in terms of median home value.  (Its actual rank for 2017 was at number 16.)</li>
</ul>
<p>This is consistent with the narrative of major “showcase” cities (DC, New York, San Francisco, etc.) experiencing economic success and an accompanying rise in home prices, while other cities (like Baltimore city) and some suburban areas (like Howard County) languish.</p>
<p>I’ll continue looking at median home values, but may post about something else next week for a change of pace.  As always, if you find these posts interesting and useful please tell other people about them (feel free to forward them these emails if you’d like) and encourage them to subscribe to the <em>Civility and Truth</em> mailing list themselves.  In the meantime, thanks for being a subscriber and reading this post!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How affluent is Howard County, really?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/06/02/how-affluent-is-howard-county-really/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 02 Jun 2019 09:22:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/06/02/how-affluent-is-howard-county-really/</guid>
      <description>Looking at median household income in Howard County, Maryland, over time compared to other local jurisdictions. [UPDATED]</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-trends-adjusted.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-trends-adjusted-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County median household income vs. other local jurisdictions, 1-year estimates"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Click for a higher-resolution version.  Graph by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>UPDATE: I’ve corrected my comments about ranking of counties to make it clear that the rankings reflect only counties and county-equivalents with populations over 65,000.</p>
<p><em>tl;dr: Looking at median household income in Howard County, Maryland, over time compared to other local jurisdictions.</em></p>
<p>I’m continuing my look at median household income, in pursuit of my ultimate goal of learning more about the issues around housing affordability in Howard County.</p>
<p>After my <a href="/2019/05/27/how-affluent-is-maryland-really/">previous post</a> about Maryland median household income I now turn my attention to looking at Howard County specifically. Unfortunately US Census Bureau data on median household income at the county level does not go back nearly as far as state-level data. The earliest county-level data I can find dates from 2005 and the beginning of the American Community Survey.</p>
<p>The graph above shows all the data I could find on Howard County median household income, compared to a select set of other jurisdictions.  All values are in 2017 dollars.  The gains and losses thus represent gains and losses in real terms after adjusting for inflation.</p>
<p>I chose the other jurisdictions as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Howard County has traditionally been compared with Loudoun County, Virginia, as the most affluent counties in Maryland and Virginia respectively.  For this graph I also added Stafford County, Virginia, a rapidly growing county that straddles I-95 south of D.C. just as Howard County straddles I-95 north of D.C.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>I paired Montgomery County and Fairfax County, the largest and most affluent of the close-in suburban jurisdictions.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>I paired D.C. and Baltimore city as the respective urban jurisdictions of the Washington-Baltimore metro area.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Finally, I added Anne Arundel County as one of Howard County’s most affluent neighbors in Maryland.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>(I would have also added Baltimore County and perhaps Frederick County, but I ran out of colors and didn’t want to make the graph more cluttered than it already is.)</p>
<p>Here are some immediate takeaways from the graph above:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Howard County experienced a significant drop in median household income from 2016 to 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Northern Virginia continues to outpace central Maryland when it comes to median household income, with Loudoun County still way out in front, Fairfax County continuing to lead Montgomery County, and Stafford County having caught up to Howard County.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Similarly the District of Columbia is widening the income gap between itself and Baltimore city, and narrowing the gap between itself and its suburbs.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>As to why these trends are occurring, I haven’t done enough research to have a solid opinion.  However I will note that median household income for the Northern Virginia suburbs is increasing even as median household income for Virginia as a whole is stagnant or decreasing. This is presumably due to the rest of Virginia suffering economic problems to which Northern Virginia is immune.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-trends-relative.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-trends-relative-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County median household income vs. other local jurisdictions, 1-year estimates"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Click for a higher-resolution version.  Graph by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This graph repeats the previous graph in comparing Howard County to other jurisdictions, except that here the measure is median household income for Howard County, etc., relative to US median household income.  My takeaways here are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Loudoun County has separated itself from the pack in the last ten years, with a median household income now 225% or more of US median household income.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>D.C. continues its growth in median household income, and is now above 130% of US median household income.  Given that Baltimore city median household income is stagnant at about 75-80% of US median household income, the next few years could see D.C. have almost double the median household income of Baltimore city.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Howard County and the other jurisdictions are trending steadily at 150-200% of US median household income.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-trends-ranking.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-mhi-trends-ranking-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County median household income rank vs. other local jurisdictions"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Click for a higher-resolution version.  Graph by Frank Hecker, made available under the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/">CC 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The final graph shows the ranking of Howard County over the years versus the most affluent local jurisdictions.  The story is similar to that from the graphs above.</p>
<p>UPDATE: While the relative rankings below are correct, the absolute rank numbers do not account for any affluent counties or county-equivalents with populations under 65,000.  That’s because they are based on the American Community Survey 1-year estimates, and such estimates are not done for smaller counties.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Loudoun County has maintained its position for the last ten years as the most affluent US county as measured by median household income, with Fairfax County also consistently in the top ten.  They have now been joined by Stafford County, although the margins of error for Stafford County estimates are so large that it’s likely a matter of sheer randomness whether Stafford County is in the top ten or just outside it.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Howard County has dropped out of the top five <em>and</em> the top ten, and Montgomery County has dropped out of the top ten.  (Again, due to margins of error Howard County is probably in reality roughly tied with Stafford County.)  Anne Arundel County was never in the top ten counties by income, and now sits at #30.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Looking at the rankings for other jurisdictions, Virginia has four jurisdictions in the top ten (with Arlington County joining Loudoun, Fairfax, and Stafford), with the remaining top ten counties in California and New Jersey (with three each).  Looking beyond the top ten, ranks #11-30 include two more Virginia jurisdictions (Prince William County and Alexandria city) and five Maryland counties (with Calvert and Charles counties joining Howard, Montgomery, and Anne Arundel).</p>
<p>Caveats aside, overall this reinforces the story of northern Virginia’s economic success and suburban Maryland’s relative economic decline.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll turn my attention to median household income within Howard County itself, looking at Census data by census tract.</p>
<h2 id="further-exploration">Further exploration</h2>
<p>For more on how I created the graphs above, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/howard-county-median-household-income-trends">Median household income trends for Howard County, Maryland</a>” shows the R code used to produce these and other graphs.</li>
<li>My <a href="https://gitlab.com/frankhecker/hocodata">hocodata code repository</a> includes copies of the raw data files and R Markdown files for this and another analyses.  (Look in the “affordability” subdirectory.)</li>
<li>If you sign up for a free account on the <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/">Rstudio.cloud</a> service you can open and make a copy of my <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/project/353602">hocodata project</a> for this and other analyses, and try your hand at it yourself. (Again, look in the “affordability” subdirectory, and check out the <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/learn/primers">RStudio primers</a> to learn how to use the system.)</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Getting down with data</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/05/22/getting-down-with-data/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 22 May 2019 12:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/05/22/getting-down-with-data/</guid>
      <description>Everyone can now work with data and visualize it. Should you?</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/rstudio-cloud-screenshot.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/rstudio-cloud-screenshot-embed.png"
         alt="Screenshot of RStudio Cloud, showing the available tutorials"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The RStudio Cloud service provides a web-based alternative to installing the RStudio desktop software, and includes tutorials for using the R statistical language and the Tidyverse set of functions. (Click for a higher resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Everyone can now work with data and visualize it. Should you?</em></p>
<p>NOTE: This article was originally published in my <em>Civility and Truth</em> Substack newsletter. I have republished it here without changes.</p>
<p>I haven’t had time yet to look at the detailed median household income data for Howard County (for which I’m going to try to do some maps of income by census tract), so that will have to wait for a future post. In the meantime I wanted to talk a bit about how I do these visualizations, how you can do them too if you have the time and interest, and what I’ve learned in the process.</p>
<h2 id="easy-data-analysis-and-visualization-for-free">Easy data analysis and visualization for free</h2>
<p>Once upon a time anyone wanting to do serious statistical analysis and graphic visualization of data needed to purchase a license for proprietary software products like <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAS_(software)">SAS</a> or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPSS">SPSS</a> that cost hundreds or even thousands of dollars per user. The traditional alternative for most users was Microsoft Excel, which included at least a basic set of statistical functions and graphing operations. However it was still not exactly cheap, especially for home users, and given its origin in accounting spreadsheets it was not really that suitable for advanced statistical and data visualization work.</p>
<h3 id="r-and-the-tidyverse">R and the tidyverse</h3>
<p>What has changed from then until now? First, noncommercial alternatives arose to SAS, SPSS, and similar products, most notably the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(programming_language)">R statistical programming language</a> and its associated runtime environment. Unlike SAS and SPSS, R was developed through an open collaborative process in which anyone could participate, and the resulting software was distributed in both binary and source form at no charge. R relatively quickly gained many users, and today it is pretty much the most popular language (along with Python) for so-called “data science” projects.</p>
<p>Unfortunately as a programming environment R is relatively difficult to use, especially for people coming to it as a first language. The second advance was to simplify the use of R by dictating a particular way of programming in it.  This was accomplished by the statistician Hadley Wickham and his colleagues, who developed a set of R extensions or “packages” known colloquially as the “Hadleyverse” and now renamed as the “tidyverse.”</p>
<p>The <a href="https://www.tidyverse.org/">tidyverse packages</a> implement a simplified philosophy for working with data, basically treating all data as sets of tables whose rows and columns can be manipulated in various ways, with the output of each manipulation producing a new table used as input to the next manipulation. The tidyverse packages also include an accompanying set of functions (“ggplot” and others) to graph data in various ways, again adhering to a particular philosophy of how to transform data into visuals.</p>
<h3 id="data-analysis-and-visualization-as-a-service">Data analysis and visualization as a service</h3>
<p>So-called “free and open source” software products like R and the tidyverse packages are a godsend for people like me who can’t or don’t want to pay for expensive proprietary software. But to paraphrase <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Zawinski">a former colleague of mine</a>, free software is only free if your time has no value: the time and effort spent downloading, installing, and configuring software can be daunting, especially for a casual user who just wants to do a basic data plot.  This is especially true if you want to do more advanced things, like displaying data on maps.</p>
<p>To address this issue Hadley Wickham and his colleagues founded a startup, <a href="https://www.rstudio.com/about/">RStudio</a>, to lower the barriers to widespread use of R and the tidyverse packages. Their first product, also called <a href="https://www.rstudio.com/products/rstudio/">RStudio</a>, provides a web-based interactive development environment (IDE) to simplify creating R-based data analyses. In its RStudio Server version it allows an organization to stand up a central web site to which users can connect and use R, the tidyverse packages, and other R-based capabilities without having to install software on their own PCs.</p>
<p>However, RStudio Server removed a burden from end users only to place it on the people charged with standing up the server system with all its necessary software. That was fine for larger organizations, but a problem for small businesses, not to mention individual users.</p>
<p>To address that issue RStudio is now developing a new service, <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/">RStudio.cloud</a>, currently being made available for testing by the public.  With RStudio.cloud all you need is a browser: the R and RStudio software is already pre-installed for you, with additional packages easily installable on the service if and when you need them. RStudio.cloud also includes a full set of interactive tutorials (see the graphic above), so that anyone who’s familiar with (say) working with Excel spreadsheets, formulas, and macros can learn to do basic data analyses and visualizations.</p>
<p>(If you want to try RStudio.cloud yourself, you can <a href="https://login.rstudio.cloud/register?redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fclient.login.rstudio.cloud%2Foauth%2Flogin%3Fshow_auth%3D0%26show_login%3D1%26show_setup%3D1">sign up for a free account</a>. and work through some of the <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/learn/primers">interactive tutorials</a>. If you want to explore a non-trivial project, I’ve shared a version of my <a href="https://rstudio.cloud/project/353602">“hocodata” project</a> on RStudio.cloud for others to access.)</p>
<h2 id="public-data-for-public-use">Public data for public use</h2>
<p>Of course, it’s not enough to know how to do data analyses and visualizations.  You also need some actual data to work with. Here, as in other areas, government (local, state, and Federal) has come to the rescue&mdash;though not always, and not always completely.</p>
<h3 id="governments-data-exhaust">Government’s “data exhaust”</h3>
<p>Governments by their nature generate a lot of data about the jurisdictions over which they hold sway. The most notable (and ancient) example of this is the census, which has gone from being a simple count of people to collecting all sorts of relevant demographic, economic, and other data about populations.</p>
<p>Governments also collect a lot of other data in the course of their operations, for example about crimes both serious and petty, building permits and zoning decisions, the locations of fire hydrants and streetlights, and so on. Traditionally this data was generated and kept as paper documents, but now it is almost always generated and stored as digital files or as entries in a digital database&mdash;a sort of “data exhaust” that is emitted by the day-to-day running of governments.</p>
<p>Having generated this data, it’s natural for governments to consider giving citizens access to it. In some cases this is part of an overarching strategy to improve visibility into the workings of government. A good example is the <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-ho-cf-political-notebook-0911-20140911-story.html">“HoCoStat” system</a> proposed by former Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman during his successful 2014 campaign.</p>
<p>In other cases government just takes data and makes it available without an overall strategy&mdash;after all, the data is being produced in digital form already, whether that be as Excel spreadsheets or in some other form, and the incremental work to make it publicly available may not be that large. For example, although the full HoCoStat system was never deployed, under Allan Kittleman Howard County did <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/News/ArticleID/156/05-08-15-Executive-Kittleman-launches-open-data-portal-to-increase-government-transparency">stand up</a> a new <a href="https://opendata.howardcountymd.gov/">OpenHoward site</a> that collected data produced by various Howard County agencies. Somewhat confusingly, there is also a separate site <a href="https://data.howardcountymd.gov/">data.howardcountymd.gov</a> that also hosts a variety of data provided by the Howard County GIS division&mdash;another project that appears to have been done as an incremental effort.</p>
<p>However, governments do not always make data available, or make it available only in inconvenient ways, for a variety of reasons. For example, some government agencies release data only in the form of PDF documents, the electronic equivalent of traditional paper reports. These can be relatively difficult to extract data from. In other cases data may be displayable on a public web site, but with no way to download it in a more convenient form.</p>
<p>But even here people have created automated ways to access data even in odd formats, whether that be extracting tables from PDF files or “scraping” it off of web sites. The result is yet more data to add to that available from more convenient sources.</p>
<h3 id="the-downside-of-data">The downside of data</h3>
<p>So with all this data available, and free ways to analyze it, are we living in utopia (at least as far as data analysis and visualization are concerned)? I don’t really think so: there are downsides to having lots of data to analyze just as there are downsides to not having it.</p>
<p>First, we tend to think that data is more accurate and reflective of reality than it actually is. For example, take the median household income estimate for Howard County and comparable estimates for other counties. In 2017 the estimate for Howard County median household income was $111,473 while the estimate for Stafford County, Virginia, was $112,795, or $1,322 more. This difference was enough to propel Stafford County into the list of top ten counties by median household income, and knock Howard County out of it.</p>
<p>But the margins of error for these estimates were $2,666 for Howard County and $5,081 for Stafford County. There’s therefore a good possibility that Howard County and Stafford County had pretty much equal median household incomes for 2017, and a fair chance that Howard County’s median household income was actually higher than Stafford County’s.</p>
<p>This failure to take margins of error into account is ubiquitous in people’s treatment of data (and I’ve been guilty of it myself). It’s not that significant an issue with respect to median household income estimates, but it can be a big deal indeed when it comes to data measurements that drive funding and personnel decisions, as with student test scores. It’s quite possible that many if not most of the reported test score increases and decreases that are alternatively lauded or derided are actually just random year-to-year fluctuations that don’t reflect any underlying change in students’ ability to learn or teachers’ ability to teach.</p>
<p>School test scores provide another reason not to put too much faith in data: When data measurements are used to drive rewards and punishments, the temptation to game the measurements in various ways can be irresistible. With school test scores such gaming can range from “teaching to the test” up to outright fraud, as shown by scandals around the US.  We now have to account not only for the possibility of random fluctuations, which are relatively benign in origin, we also have to assess to what degree the data might be fraudulently measured or reported.</p>
<p>Finally, in many cases we should question ourselves as to whether some data is actually useful, or should be used. For example, do student test scores actually tell us anything useful? Would it be better not to do student testing at all, or to restrict it to certain narrow purposes? One benefit of working directly with raw data, as opposed to consuming pre-cooked graphs and tables prepared by others, is that it can give you a good sense of the limits to what data can tell us.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Soulful Symphony elevates Howard County</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/04/27/soulful-symphony-elevates-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 27 Apr 2019 09:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/04/27/soulful-symphony-elevates-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>Merriweather Post Pavilion gets its own resident orchestra</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/elevate-md-darin-atwater.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/elevate-md-darin-atwater-embed.jpg"
         alt="Darin Atwater with Candace Dodson Reed and Tom Coale"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Darin Atwater (R), founder of Soulful Symphony and artistic director of the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission, speaks with Elevate Maryland co-hosts Candace Dodson Reed (C) and Tom Coale (L). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Photograph © 2019 by Frank Hecker, made available under the provisions of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) license</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Merriweather Post Pavilion gets its own resident orchestra.</em></p>
<p>Long-time Howard County residents (or people who’ve read my <a href="/2017/06/03/creating-the-chrysalis-timeline/">Creating the Chrysalis timeline</a>) may recall that when Merriweather Post Pavilion was built, over fifty years ago, it was intended to become the permanent summer home for the National Symphony Orchestra.  A few years later the NSO left Merriweather Post Pavilion, and soon after that the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra began playing summer concerts at the pavilion.  The BSO eventually left as well, and since then Merriweather Post Pavilion has had no resident orchestra. Until now.</p>
<p>Recently the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission announced that Soulful Symphony, an orchestra led by DCACC artistic director Darin Atwater, would make Merriweather Post Pavilion its new (summer) home.  This announcement is interesting for at least three reasons: for what it says about Merriweather Post Pavilion, what it says about Soulful Symphony and the future of classical music, and what it implies for future support of the arts in Columbia and Howard County.</p>
<p>First, why Soulful Symphony and Merriweather Post Pavilion?  For reasons discussed below, although they may do occasional performances, it’s extremely unlikely that Merriweather Post Pavilion would ever again serve as an exclusive summer residence for either of the two main regional symphony orchestras, the National Symphony Orchestra or the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra.</p>
<p>What about the Columbia Orchestra?  It is rooted in Howard County, has successfully navigated the last forty years of its existence, and based on its most recent <a href="http://www.columbiaorchestra.org/uploads/2018-19/Columbia%20Orchestra%20FY18%20Annual%20Report.pdf">annual report</a> appears to have been able to put on a relatively ambitious series of performances, play to near-capacity audiences at its main venue (the 742-seat James W. Rouse Theater at Wilde Lake High School), and manage its finances well.</p>
<p>An initial answer would be, well, Darin Atwater is the artistic director for DCACC and DCACC now owns Merriweather Post Pavilion, so of course Atwater’s Soulful Symphony is a natural choice for a resident orchestra.  That somewhat begs the question, though: why pick someone like Darin Atwater for DCACC artistic director in the first place?</p>
<p>My answer, one echoed by Atwater himself in the Elevate Maryland podcast, is that whatever Jim Rouse’s intent may have been in building Merriweather Post Pavilion, its tradition is not that of a classical music hall but that of an amphitheater hosting popular music performances by many of the most important artists of the last fifty years.  Merriweather Post Pavilion is famous not because the NSO or BSO played there, but because it hosted concerts by artists like Stevie Wonder, Pink Floyd, the Carpenters, B.B. King, John Denver, Ella Fitzgerald, the Kinks, Miles Davis and Muddy Waters, Al Green, Judy Collins, the Temptations, Gladys Knight and the Pips, and the Beach Boys&mdash;to name only a few of the acts featured in just <a href="http://brianstorms.com/2010/08/summer-of-73-not-bad-not-bad-at-all.html">the summer of 1973</a>.</p>
<p>Thus it’s only appropriate that if Merriweather Post Pavilion is to have a resident orchestra, it have one that is not a traditional symphony orchestra but one that has one foot in the classical music tradition and the other in the popular music of America.</p>
<p>Which brings me to my second point: arguably the major problem with classical music in America today is that (unlike classical music in other times and other countries) it has few if any connections to American culture at large. As the critic and composer <a href="http://www.artsjournal.com/sandow/2014/08/the-future-of-classical-music.html">Greg Sandow wrote</a>, “We don’t connect well with the world. Most of the music we play is from the past, while the people around us are connecting with the culture and concerns of the present.”</p>
<p>And when it comes to music, “American culture” really means African American culture.  It is the wellspring from which have arisen all the major American music genres , and its influence has traveled around the globe, from <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6NMK-oiE0o">blues-influenced</a> (and sometimes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uPKcMkH0vw">blues-plagiarizing</a>) 1960s British rock to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YA6G74gk6R8">R&amp;B-</a> and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9Uy0opVF3s">hip hop-influenced</a> contemporary K-pop (to name only two).</p>
<p>However, as Atwater notes in his comments, African American musical culture has been only fitfully reflected in classical music, which is to a large degree a foreign growth transplanted to American soil, and all the weaker for it: As Sandow notes, the audience for classical music in America is declining, and is increasingly dominated by the elderly.  (For example, according to its 2018 annual report seniors comprised over 60% of the audience for the Columbia Orchestra’s core series of classical music performances, and students less than 10%.)</p>
<p>According to Atwater, his mission is to diversify the classical music repertoire, to help create a music that speaks “the native tongue of the people”: “Music now has to speak to all Americans, it can’t just speak to a segment of America.”  In that sense I think Soulful Symphony is a good fit for Merriweather Post Pavilion, and for what the DCACC hopes that the pavilion can be for the residents of Columbia and Howard County.</p>
<p>Thus my third and final point, relating to who’s going to support the arts in Howard County in future:</p>
<p>One major reason why the National Symphony Orchestra left Merriweather Post Pavilion is that Catherine Filene Shouse donated millions of dollars to build (and then rebuild, after a fire) the Wolf Trap performing arts center in Northern Virginia near McLean and Great Falls.</p>
<p>One major reason why the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra left Merriweather Post Pavilion is that Joseph Meyerhoff, who donated the funds to construct Meyerhoff Symphony Hall in Baltimore, worked to secure a new summer performance venue for the BSO in Oregon Ridge Park near Hunt Valley in northern Baltimore County.</p>
<p>In contrast, the wealthiest philanthropist ever mentioned in relation to Columbia and Howard County was Marjorie Merriweather Post, who famously never gave a dime to help fund construction of the pavilion that bears her name. It’s unclear whether we will ever see a private individual who could and would single-handly take on the task of financially supporting the construction and maintenance of a major performance venue in Howard County.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>But what about all the money from Merriweather Post Pavilion concerts? Leaving aside the fact that event revenue primarily funds ongoing operations, even in this regard Merriweather Post Pavilion is a decided underdog. Operated by I.M.A., a subsidiary of the D.C.-based independent concert promotion and production company I.M.P., Merriweather competes locally with Jiffy Lube Live, the Northern Virginia outdoor amphitheater that is but one of over two dozen operated by Live Nation Entertainment, a $10 billion global corporation.</p>
<p>There is no “somebody else” who will ensure that Merriweather Post Pavilion will survive and thrive. Now that ownership of Merriweather Post Pavilion has been transferred to the DCACC, the future of the venue will be dependent on a mix of financial streams: revenue from concerts at the pavilion, corporate sponsorships, and other monetary contributions from Howard County and Maryland residents, whether directly via donations or indirectly through their county and state taxes.</p>
<p>Put simply, the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion depends on us&mdash;as does that of the surrounding Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, including the Chrysalis amphitheater. I think that by hosting Soulful Symphony and through its other activities DCACC has made clear its intention to make Merriweather Post Pavilion a place that offers music and other cultural performances for all of Howard County. Now it’s up to us to ensure that that outreach is rewarded.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>Besides the <a href="http://elevatemaryland.libsyn.com/episode-53-with-dcacc-artistic-director-darin-atwater">Elevate Maryland podcast #53</a> featuring Darin Atwater, other interviews and features of note include the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBvOU3jKyds">HoCoMoJo 3-minute video</a> on the Soulful Symphony Merriweather Post Pavilion announcement.</li>
<li><a href="https://soundcloud.com/airsnext/bam1">Backstage at Merriweather (B@M) #1</a>. A 29-minute conversation between Darin Atwater and Ian Kennedy, executive director of the DCACC.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=630XnRBOwMU">Mykel Hunter interviews Darin Atwater</a>. A 12-minute 2010 interview on Baltimore’s Magic 95.9 FM.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJ4c0c9R_xE">Rock Newman interviews Darin Atwater</a>. A one-hour 2009 interview on the <em>Rock Newman Show</em>.</li>
</ul>
<p>The following Soulful Symphony performances, among others, can be found on YouTube:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=592bF4mDQa8">Swing Low Sweet Chariot</a>.”</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfgKN7Id4EQ">Go Down Moses</a>”</li>
</ul>
<p>Finally, although the Soulful Symphony does not appear to have its own public web site, the <a href="http://www.dcacc.info/">DCACC web site</a> has a copy of the <a href="http://www.dcacc.info/dispatches/2019/3/11/soulful-symphony-is-home-at-merriweather-post-pavilion">press release</a> announcing Soulful Symphony’s association with Merriweather Post Pavilion, and should also have announcements of future performances. (In the B@M podcast linked to above, Darin Atwater advises listeners to “save the date” of June 29.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Peter and Elizabeth Horowitz made a major donation to support the construction of the Horowitz Center for Visual and Performing Arts at Howard Community College. However, their and others individual donations were only a small part of the almost $27 million construction cost, almost three quarters of which was funded by the state and county, with the remainder funded by county bonds to be repaid by donors and student fees.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Subscribe to Civility and Truth</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/04/13/subscribe-to-civility-and-truth/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 13 Apr 2019 23:30:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/04/13/subscribe-to-civility-and-truth/</guid>
      <description>Update 2021/06/19: This post is now obsolete.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: This post is now obsolete.</em></p>
<p>Update 2021/06/19: I am no longer updating the <em>Civility and Truth</em> newsletter, so there’s no longer any point to subscribing to it. However old posts will remain accessible for the foreseeable future.</p>
<p>I don’t update this blog very frequently, and it’s too much to expect people to check out the web site on a regular basis. Hence I’ve created a new <a href="https://civilityandtruth.substack.com"><em>Civility and Truth</em> newsletter</a>, and am inviting you to subscribe to it. I’ll use the newsletter to send new <em>Civility and Truth</em> posts direct to your inbox at the same time I post them to the site&mdash;or even before I post them to the site, as a reward to subscribers.</p>
<p>I’ll also send out other material that for whatever reason doesn’t warrant a full <em>Civility and Truth</em> post, including links to recommended articles, mini book reviews, and random commentary.</p>
<p>Finally, this is a free newsletter and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Please feel free to forward any of my posts to anyone you think may be interested in in-depth, data-based, non-partisan commentary and analysis of issues relevant to Howard County, Maryland, and the world beyond.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>Apparently email lists are the hip new alternative to blogs. (I can remember a time when blogs were the hip new alternative to email lists.)  If you’re interested in the trend to email newsletter subscriptions, check out the following articles linked to from the <a href="https://substack.com/about">Substack site</a>:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/19/technology/new-social-network-email-newsletter.html">The new social network that isn’t new at all</a>,” by Mike Isaac for the <em>New York Times</em>.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.wired.com/story/judd-legum-popular-information-politics-newsletter-for-everyone/">Judd Legum wants to fix news with a newsletter</a>,” by Emily Dreyfuss for <em>Wired</em>.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://techcrunch.com/2018/10/16/substack-one-year/">Substack celebrates its first birthday with 25K paying newsletter subscribers</a>,” by Anthony Ha for TechCrunch.</li>
</ul>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How do schools and parents matter?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2019/03/03/how-do-schools-and-parents-matter/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 03 Mar 2019 18:45:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2019/03/03/how-do-schools-and-parents-matter/</guid>
      <description>I explore the ideas of Judith Rich Harris as they apply to the roles of parents and schools in Howard County and elsewhere.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: I explore the ideas of Judith Rich Harris as they apply to the roles of parents and schools in Howard County, Maryland, and elsewhere.</em></p>
<p>How exactly do schools and parents matter? To what degree are the actions of parents responsible for how their children turn out, and how? What do children really learn in school, and what might they learn?  And how do these questions relate to issues that Howard County is facing today, including housing affordability, school redistricting, raising students’ test scores, and the like?</p>
<p>Judith Rich Harris was once a Harvard graduate student in psychology before being kicked out of the program on the grounds that she would not “develop into our professional stereotype of what an experimental psychologist should be.” Prevented by chronic illness from obtaining her doctorate elsewhere, she first found employment as a writer of psychology textbooks and then began a second career as a independent researcher after coming to disbelieve conventional wisdom about the role of parents in child development. Her death last December at the age of 80 prompted me to explore her work and write this post.</p>
<p>Nothing that Harris wrote, or that I write here, should be taken as gospel. The state of psychology as a science right now is very unsettled, and (as I discuss below) it will likely take some while for the discipline to come to a consensus on how well Harris’s ideas explain the world. But her ideas are certainly plausible and consistent with other things we know about family, school, and society, so if nothing else you can consider this an interesting thought experiment about how the world might be different than we think, and our education and related policies likewise different.</p>
<h2 id="how-do-parents-affect-their-childrens-development">How do parents affect their children’s development?</h2>
<p>Harris’s chief interest as a researcher was in how children develop their personalities and become socialized to live and work in the world. Why is this such an important topic?</p>
<p>In my “<a href="/seven-answers/">seven answers</a>” article on <a href="/2018/05/13/seven-answers-liberty-equality-and-baseball/">liberty and equality</a> I discussed how even in the world of Major League Baseball, in which everyone might be expected to perform at an equally high level, there are large differences in players’ performances. Some of these can be chalked up to differences in raw athletic ability, but others are plausibly due to differences in personality and resulting behavior: how willing are players to practice? Do they listen to their coaches’ instructions and follow them? Are they leaders in the clubhouse, or disruptive to team cohesion?</p>
<p>As in baseball, so in life: conscientiousness, likeability, willingness to cooperate, and other factors help determine how successful people will be in their careers. Other aspects of personality, like altruism, community spirit, kindness, and so on, affect our judgements of how morally good a person is.</p>
<p>The traditional view (which is actually relatively recent in historical terms) is that parents’ guidance is the most important factor in molding children’s personalities: that if children are studious or kind it is supposedly because their parents “raised them right,” and if they fall short in any area then it is allegedly due to their parents failing to do their job.</p>
<p>In the course of writing psychology textbooks and reviewing the research on which they were based, Harris concluded that the traditional view was wrong: that parents’ actions in and of themselves have relatively little influence in how their children turn out, and that to the extent children resemble their parents in personality it is in large part because parents pass those personality traits on to them, in the same way parents pass on their facial features and hair color.</p>
<p>Harris spends much of her book <em>The Nurture Assumption</em> building the case for this. One key argument has to do with children who are adopted: that such children’s personalities do not typically resemble those of other children born into the same families, while identical twins have similar personalities even if they are adopted into other families and raised apart. In baseball terms, it’s unlikely that the average Little Leaguer would have become an MLB prospect if adopted by Ken Griffey, Sr. However, it’s likely that Ken Griffey, Jr., would have found athletic success even away from his father’s influence, if he had been given the opportunity to develop his talent (a key point to which I’ll return).</p>
<p>This is not to say that parents do not and cannot positively influence their children in any way&mdash;an extreme position that many of Harris’s critics ascribed to her, and a reaction that she herself sometimes inadvertently provoked by taking an “everything you know is wrong” attitude.</p>
<p>First, parents can and should provide their children the things we’d expect all children to have in a civilized society: adequate food and shelter, medical care, physical security and freedom from abuse of all kinds, and so on.</p>
<p>It is in turn the mark of a civilized society that it makes it possible for all parents to do this: that parents can earn wages sufficient to provide for their families (or be financially assisted if they cannot), that they can provide health care to their children without bankrupting themselves, that their homes and water supplies are free of lead and other poisons harmful to children’s development, and that they are subject to a system of policing that both protects and respects their persons.</p>
<p>Parents also influence their children by their actions in acknowledging and reinforcing the personalities already inherent in the children: if a child appears to be studious and interested in reading their parents buy them books and take them to libraries, if they show artistic inclinations their parents take them to the theater and museums, and if they like physical activity their parents play with them more and sign them up for youth sports.</p>
<p>This behavior is very much influenced by the parents’s own inherent personalities passed down to their offspring: for example, parents who are athletic will tend to have children who are also athletic, and then (being athletic themselves) will tend to further encourage those children in athletic activities. But again the larger society also plays a role, by providing opportunities for parents to influence their children in these ways, for example by funding public playgrounds and athletic fields.</p>
<p>Finally, through their actions parents can influence the behavior of children within the family itself, including children’s attitudes toward their parents: parents who treat their children with kindness and respect will be more likely than harsh and cruel parents to have their children respect them and treat them kindly in turn. This influence may not carry over into children’s behavior in the outside world&mdash;indeed Harris argues that children’s behavior in the outside world often bears little or no similarity to their behavior in the home&mdash;but it can improve the quality of the parent-child relationship.</p>
<h2 id="how-does-the-outside-world-influence-childrens-development">How does the outside world influence children’s development?</h2>
<p>If parents do not greatly influence their children’s personalities (beyond whatever personality traits were passed down from parent to child at birth), what does?</p>
<p>Harris contended that the major influence on children’s personality development and socialization is the world outside their families, and in particular the peers they encounter at school and elsewhere. One of Harris’s key arguments is based on the example of language learning, particularly when parents are immigrants and speak a different language than society at large.</p>
<p>Immigrant parents may speak their own language at home, and their children will learn that language and use it when speaking to their parents. However at the same time those children will learn the language of the outside world, because it is the language spoken by the other children who are their peers, and they will adopt the accent, vocabulary, and vocal mannerisms characteristic of those peers.</p>
<p>Harris explained this by pointing out that the ultimate goal of children, the goal that drives their behavior, is not to succeed at home (which they will someday leave), but to succeed in the wider world outside the home. To achieve that goal children emulate other children of their own age or slightly older, modeling their own behavior on theirs. They also categorize themselves in relation to other children, and join peer groups consistent with those categorizations: the studious child becomes a “nerd,” the athletic child allies themself with the “jocks,” and so on.</p>
<p>In modern societies the place where children encounter other children is in school, and therefore the school environment is the primary driver of children’s socialization, together with after-school environments both in-person and (increasingly) online&mdash;both of which are often just continuations of school interactions in other contexts.</p>
<p>What roles does this leave for parents, if they wish their children to develop into successful adults? The first possibility is that parents can indirectly help influence their children by the parents’ actions in the larger world. Children emulate older children, who in turn emulate older children still, until children who are almost adults emulate actual adults. Thus the values and attitudes of the parents’ neighborhood and the broader society flow down and become the values and attitudes of children. To the extent that parents can help shape those values and attitudes, they help shape those of their children.</p>
<p>However parents are severely limited in how much they can do. Whatever they themselves can do in the home or in the world is far outweighed by the influence exerted by others. In the final analysis they have little power to stop their children adopting the values and attitudes of their peers, just as immigrant parents cannot stop their children from learning the languages spoken outside the home.</p>
<p>What parents <em>can</em> realistically hope to do is to help determine who their children’s peers are, by their choices of where to live and where to send their children to school. This plays out in various ways depending on the parents’ income.</p>
<p>Wealthy parents have it the easiest: they can afford to live anywhere, and to send their children to exclusive private schools in which they will encounter only other children of the wealthy (and perhaps a few carefully-selected scholarship students).</p>
<p>Parents at the other end of the income spectrum have it the hardest: it is difficult for them to move to places other than where they grew up, and if they are not satisfied with their children’s school experiences then their only hope is that someone else will provide them a no-cost alternative, like the choice of a public school in a different neighborhood or a publicly-funded charter school.</p>
<p>Middle-income parents have a different strategy: They cannot necessarily afford to send their children to private schools, but they <em>are</em> able to move to jurisdictions where the public schools are filled with the children of other middle-income parents with similar values and attitudes. Those other children will then be their own children’s peers and (collectively) the primary influence on their values and attitudes.</p>
<p>This is the dynamic that has played out in Howard County: educated middle-class parents are attracted to the county by housing and job opportunities, and they pass on their talents and personalities to their children. Those children are then successful in Howard County public schools in large part due to those talents and personalities and their reinforcement by the presence of other children with similar talents and personalities. Howard County public schools then get a reputation as “good schools,” yet more educated middle-class parents are attracted to the county based on that reputation, and the cycle begins again.</p>
<p>This would seem to be an entirely positive dynamic, but it has its unfortunate aspects. First, it ties parents’ hopes for their children to the schools they attend, and to the neighborhoods within those school’s attendance boundaries. This makes fights over Howard County school redistricting more divisive than they otherwise might be.</p>
<p>Moving students from one school to another does not just change students’ teachers, it changes the peer groups that determine students’ socialization. Some parents may be concerned about their children being moved to a school with students whose values and attitudes may be different (or at least perceived to be so), and other parents may be concerned about the possibility of such students being moved into their own children’s schools.</p>
<p>This dynamic also makes Howard County less affordable and less open to those pursuing upward mobility. As Howard County becomes more known for its “good schools” (which would be better termed “schools with good students”) that increases the demand for housing, which in the absence of increased housing supply will raise the prices of houses and apartments in the county. This in turn means that the county will become affordable only to those of higher incomes, or in other words people who have the talents and personalities that are a good fit for jobs enabling them to command such incomes.</p>
<p>The Central Branch of the Howard County Library System in downtown Columbia recently hosted an “Undesign the Redline” exhibit tracing the history of legal and corporate attempts to restrict housing opportunities in the United States by race. The library’s hosting the exhibit was consistent with the founding story of Columbia as a “garden for growing people” (to quote its founder Jim Rouse), open to people of all races and income levels.</p>
<p>The experience of Howard County today, now past Columbia’s 50th birthday, shows that it is possible for similar patterns of residential segration to emerge in a more spontaneous manner. Unlike past redlining these new patterns are ostensibly race-neutral (because they are based on household income) and the restrictions on housing supply and housing types that drive them can be justified as supporting worthy goals like preventing school overcrowding, reducing over-development and the influence of developers, ensuring adequate public facilities, preserving open space, and protecting the character of the county and its neighborhoods.</p>
<p>Is it possible to break this cycle, to make Howard County once again affordable to a wider range of people and ensure that Columbia will fulfill Jim Rouse’s vision? That is a longer discussion than this article can contain, but surely part of the solution is to ensure that all Howard County schools are equally attractive to parents, so that some neighborhoods are not disadvantaged relative to others, and that all parents can feel good about the socialization their children will undergo in those schools.</p>
<p>How can schools do this, above and beyond their ostensible function of teaching students academic knowledge that will (supposedly) be useful to them as adults. At a minimum they should provide what we would expect parents to provide: an environment in which students are adequately cared for and are safe from physical and emotional abuse of various kinds, including bullying both off-line and on-line.</p>
<p>We’d also expect schools to provide an environment in which learning of all kinds is supported, and in which students who wish to learn are able to do so without interference or interruption. What can schools do to ensure this? Harris had some relatively unformed ideas about this, and I speculate about this a bit in the next section.</p>
<h2 id="how-can-schools-help-children-succeed">How can schools help children succeed?</h2>
<p>Going back to my baseball example, suppose we lived in a country where playing baseball were the only way to succeed in society, with anyone who couldn’t play baseball at a high level unlikely to rise out of poverty.  Suppose also that politicians in that country urged children facing such poor prospects to “learn to hit or pitch,” and proposed to help them succeed by providing every child free tuition to baseball camps.</p>
<p>Most people would probably consider this to be an inadequate response to the problem, and such a country to be a less than ideal place for children to grow up. (In fact, there <em>are</em> countries where lack of economic development means that playing baseball is the only way out of poverty. We don’t consider generally consider those countries as models for the US to emulate.)</p>
<p>What does this have to do with child development? In addition to considering personality attributes passed down from parent to child, and socialization of children by their peer environment, Judith Rich Harris also sought to understand why children develop different personalities even in cases (as with identical twins) where we might expect their personalities to be very similar.</p>
<p>In her book <em>No Two Alike</em> Harris argued that the answer to this question lies in children’s quest for status within the groups to which they belong. Per Harris, socialization within peer groups causes children’s values and attitudes to match those of their peers, but achieving higher status requires that they act in ways that make them stand out from their peers.</p>
<p>This in turn drives the evolution of children’s personalities: for example, the child who is studious and rewarded for doing well in academic subjects is motivated to study more, and the child whose extraversion and likeability makes them popular will seek more opportunities to display those attributes and achieve further popularity. This evolution is influenced not just by children’s own personality predispositions, but also by the socialization they receive (e.g., do the child’s peers consider academic or athletic success to be something worth pursuing?) and the opportunities open to them.</p>
<p>Our schools can then be seen not just as an environment for children’s socialization, but also as providing a set of opportunities for children to measure themselves against others and achieve higher status in one way or another. If that set of opportunities is relatively limited then children will seek other ways to achieve status, some of which may not be desirable from the point of view of the school or of society at large.</p>
<p>My tentative conclusion is then that our schools should not be like the countries where baseball is the only path to success. In addition to providing a positive environment for children’s socialization and a grounding in topics everyone should know (mainly basic literacy and numeracy), schools should strive to provide as many opportunities as possible for children to find something they’re good at and pursue the achievement of status in positive ways. Beyond traditional academic subjects for the studious and sports for the athletic, that might include opportunities for students to express themselves through arts of various kinds, to work with their hands, to learn how to run a business, to learn how to care for others, and so on.</p>
<p>Opportunities like this are often a feature of today’s schools, but they exist at the margin, under constant threat of funding cuts (like the arts), seen as less prestigious and desirable (like vocational programs), and in general considered to detract from the primary goal of driving children’s academic achievement as measured by standardized test scores.</p>
<p>Fully implementing the vision above would thus require a total rethinking of the way schools are organized, especially in late middle school and high school, corresponding to the years in which (according to Harris) children develop their adult personalities. It would also require a different way of measuring the success of schools and teachers&mdash;or perhaps abandoning the idea of measurement entirely, beyond ensuring that schools meet some base-line goals in terms of providing a safe and supportive environment for students.</p>
<p>Of course such a major rework of schools could not occur in a vacuum. Beyond state and Federal educational policies that might hamper such a change, it’s of no use for schools to offer alternative paths to students if society at large does not value people who take those paths. There must be opportunities and (if needed) support for them to live lives of dignity and worth and to provide for themselves and their families. I addressed this topic in <a href="/2018/03/22/seven-answers-social-democracy/">other</a> <a href="/2018/05/13/seven-answers-liberty-equality-and-baseball/">posts</a>, so I won’t comment further on it here.</p>
<h2 id="looking-to-the-future">Looking to the future</h2>
<p>As I mentioned at the beginning, this post is a thought experiment: <em>if</em> Judith Rich Harris was correct <em>then</em> these are some implications for parents, schools, and society.  I happen to think her theories are plausible, but at present they are not generally accepted, particularly by the people who are most concerned with child development and who drive education policy.</p>
<p>Could this change, and if so, how long might such a change take? At this point it’s been over twenty years since Harris first laid out her hypotheses and the arguments for them.  I suspect it may be almost as long until Harris is definitively proved right or wrong to the satisfaction of most of the people whose opinions count, and perhaps longer than that for her ideas (if correct) to be reflected in education policy.</p>
<p>First, people deemed to be child development experts would have to come to a consensus that children resemble their parents in personality and talents for the same reason they resemble them in appearance.  As consumer DNA testing becomes more popular and its applications move beyond those that are primarily ancestry-focused or entertainment-oriented (“wine recommendations . . . scientifically selected based on your DNA”), it’s possible that ordinary people will come to this conclusion before most experts do.</p>
<p>Second, psychologists would need to test and confirm (or disprove) Harris’s ideas regarding children’s socialization and personality development.  Right now psychology as a discipline is in the midst of a battle over whether past experiments underlying accepted theories were actually conducted properly,<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> and what if anything needs to be done to put psychological theories on a sounder scientific footing.  Resolving these controversies will take some time, and probably depend to a large degree on researcher turnover within the field.</p>
<p>Finally, even if Harris’s ideas come to be accepted by experts and ordinary people alike, policymakers will not respond to those ideas until they have some compelling reason to do so. For now policymakers appear to be committed to the idea that what America needs most are more STEM professionals, that the primary if not only goal of our educational system should be to provide them, and that we can best measure public schools’ success in promoting that goal through students’ scores on standardized tests and their acceptance into four-year colleges and universities.</p>
<p>Policymakers will likely change their minds only if and when that strategy clearly proves insufficient to address the challenges that the Americans will face in the 21st century. I wrote this post in the belief that that day will come.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>The best source for information on Judith Rich Harris is the web site <a href="http://judithrichharris.info/">judithrichharris.info</a> maintained by her husband Charles Harris. The site includes a <a href="http://judithrichharris.info/tna/bio.htm">biography of Harris</a> and an extensive set of links to articles and related material for her two major works, <em><a href="http://judithrichharris.info/tna/index.html">The Nurture Assumption</a></em> and <em><a href="http://judithrichharris.info/n2a/index.html">No Two Alike</a></em>.</p>
<p>Geting the full flavor of Harris’s argument really requires reading her books, since popular summarizations often distort what she was saying&mdash;most notably that she claimed that “parents don’t matter” in any way whatsoever. However if you don’t have time to read the books here are some sources in which Harris defends her theories in her own words:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://www.edge.org/conversation/children-dont-do-things-half-way">Children Don’t Do Things Half Way</a>.”  An interview on the <em>Edge</em> online site in which Harris reviews the arguments of <em>The Nurture Assumption</em>. (See also the <a href="https://www.edge.org/conversation/judith_rich_harris-judith-rich-harris-1938-2018"><em>Edge</em> retrospective on Harris</a>.)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.teachers.net/gazette/OCT02/harris.html">How Many Environments Does a Child Have?</a>.”  A reprint of a Harvard Education Letter article in which Harris comments on the role of schools, clasmmates, and teachers in forming children’s personalities.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://judithrichharris.info/tna/slate.htm">The Nature of Nurture</a>.”  A “dialogue” (really, a debate) in <em>Slate</em> magazine between Harris and one of her critics, psychologist Jerome Kagan. Among other things, this highlights Harris’s contrarian and somewhat combative stance vs. the psychology “establishment.”</li>
<li>“<a href="http://faculty.weber.edu/eamsel/Classes/Child%203000/Lectures/3%20Childhood/SE%20development/JudithHarris.html">Where is the Child’s Environment? A Group Socialization Theory of Development</a>.”  The 1995 <em>Psychological Review</em> paper in which Harris first set out her theories.</li>
</ul>
<p>If you do have time to read Harris’s books, the first part of <em>No Two Alike</em> recaps the arguments of <em>The Nurture Assumption</em>, so reading that book alone might seem like a shortcut. However some people might not like the way <em>No Two Alike</em> is structured (like a mystery novel), and the book omits the in-depth discussion in <em>The Nurture Assumption</em> of how Harris came to believe that conventional theories of child development were incorrect.</p>
<p>Finally, those who like Malcolm Gladwell’s popularizations can read his <em>New Yorker</em> profile of Harris, “<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110606145828/http://www.gladwell.com/1998/1998_08_17_a_harris.htm">Do Parents Matter?</a>” written on the eve of publication of <em>The Nurture Assumption</em>.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>As one example, Harris herself often referenced the results of the 1950s “Robbers Cave” experiment in which boys at a summer camp were organized into two groups that subsequently fell into conflict. More recently the researchers conducting that experiment have been accused of deliberately manipulating the results, including ignoring previous experiments that failed to support their preconceived theory.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2018 campaign signs, part 8: And the winner is . . .</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/27/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-8/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2018 07:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/27/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-8/</guid>
      <description>I reveal the winner of the vote for best-looking Howard Couny 2018 campaign sign.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-shahan-rizvi.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-shahan-rizvi-embed.jpg"
         alt="Shahan Rizvi small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Shahan Rizvi’s sign, winner of the 2018 contest for best-looking Howard County campaign sign. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I reveal the winner of the vote for best-looking Howard Couny 2018 campaign sign.</em></p>
<p>. . . and it’s the sign for Shahan Rizvi, candidate for Democratic
Central Committee. His sign got 37% of the total vote. Congratulations Shahan on your victory!</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-macfarlane-taj.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-macfarlane-taj-embed.jpg"
         alt="Byron Macfarlane’s and Sabina Taj’s campaign signs, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Byron Macfarlane’s and Sabina Taj’s signs, runners-up in the 2018 contest for best-looking Howard County campaign sign. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The next two highest vote-getters were the signs for Byron Macfarlane (28% of the total vote) and Sabina Taj (15%). Condolences to Byron and Sabina: your signs looked good, but I think Shahan’s highly-effective get-out-the-vote efforts made all the difference.</p>
<p>Thanks to all of you who participated in the voting not just in the final round but in earlier rounds as well. I hope you enjoyed these posts!</p>
<p>Now I’ll be back to posting on other matters. If you want to keep up with my future posts (which I doubt will be nearly this interesting) you can follow me as <a href="https://twitter.com/hecker">@hecker on Twitter</a>. I’ll also post any Howard County-relevant stuff in the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/1206041076156392/">Howard County Facebook group</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2018 campaign signs, part 7: Election day special</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/26/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-7/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 26 Jun 2018 07:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/26/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-7/</guid>
      <description>After you vote in today’s 2018 primary, vote for the best-looking campaign signs among those that made it to the final round.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-7.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-7-embed.jpg"
         alt="Howard County 2018 campaign signs in the final round of voting"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Howard County 2018 campaign signs advancing to the final round of voting. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: After you vote in today’s 2018 Maryland primary, vote for the best-looking Howard County 2018 campaign signs among those that made it to the final round.</em></p>
<p>Polls are now closed for voting for the signs discussed in parts 1 through 6 of this series. The following candidates’ signs were the winners and runners-up for each part (with their percentage of the vote in parentheses):</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="/2018/06/19/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-1/">Part 1</a>. Winner: Kim Oldham (56%). Runner-up: Greg Jennings (15%).</li>
<li><a href="/2018/06/21/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-2/">Part 2</a>. Winners: Deb Jung and Shahan Rizvi (tie) (32%).</li>
<li><a href="/2018/06/22/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-3/">Part 3</a>. Winner: Danny Mackey (35%). Runner-up: Christiana Rigby (29%).</li>
<li><a href="/2018/06/23/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-4/">Part 4</a>. Winner: Sabina Taj (77%). Runner-up: Rich Gibson (9%).</li>
<li><a href="/2018/06/24/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-5/">Part 5</a>. Winner: Liz Walsh (54%). Runner-up: Jessica Feldmark (32%).</li>
<li><a href="/2018/06/25/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-6/">Part 6</a>. Winner: Byron Macfarlane (52%). Runner-up: Opel Jones (24%).</li>
</ul>
<p>The following candidates’ signs will advance to the final round of eight (in random order): Deb Jung, Liz Walsh, Byron Macfarlane, Jessica Feldmark, Shahan Rizvi, Sabina Taj, Kim Oldham, and Danny Mackey.</p>
<p>The signs for Deb Jung and Shahan Rizvi both advanced because they finished in a dead heat, with the exact same number of votes. I also included Jessica Feldmark’s sign as my wild card choice, since it was the runner-up with the highest percentage of the vote share (the same as Jung’s and Rizvi’s signs, as it happens).</p>
<p>Please <a href="https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/XKBPSTZ">vote for your choice</a> of the best-looking sign of those listed above. Extended voting hours will run until 11 pm on Election Day, so you can vote for your favorite sign while you attend the parties after the real polls close. Check <a href="https://twitter.com/hecker">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/1206041076156392/">Facebook</a> tomorrow to see which sign won!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2018 campaign signs, part 6</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/25/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-6/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 25 Jun 2018 06:45:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/25/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-6/</guid>
      <description>Here’s my final set of reviews of Howard County 2018 campaign signs.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-6.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-6-embed.jpg"
         alt="2018 campaign signs at the Miller Branch library"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>2018 campaign signs on Frederick Road next to the Miller Branch library. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Here’s my final set of reviews of Howard County 2018 campaign signs.  This post features signs from Opel Jones, Steven Bolen, Bill McMahon, China Williams, Wayne Robey, Byron Macfarlane, Gail Bates, Katie Fry Hester, and Robert Miller.</em></p>
<p>Today I have only nine signs to review. Every post thus far has included only signs that I saw at the Miller Branch library during early voting. This post includes one other sign, for Wayne Robey, that I saw in my own neighborhood.</p>
<p>There are a number of other candidates who did not have signs at the Miller Branch library or other places I’ve looked. Typically these are candidates who are not actively campaigning or have no opposition in the primary and will post signs later. I don’t plan on doing an update of this series for the general election, so signs for this latter group of candidates will go unreviewed this year.</p>
<p>As always, the signs are listed in random order, there’s a survey link at the end, and you can find more background at <a href="/2018/06/19/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-1/">part 1</a>.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-opel-jones.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-opel-jones-embed.jpg"
         alt="Open Jones campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Opel Jones, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 2. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is a good simple sign that has multiple strategies to avoid being boring. First, the star in the middle of the letter “o“ in “Jones” lends visual interest to the text and breaks up the all caps single typeface nature of it. Second, the use of a second color highlights “Opel” just as the star did for “Jones”. Finally, the yellow strip at the bottom echoes the color of “Opel” and underlines the sign as a whole.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-steven-bolen.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-steven-bolen-embed.jpg"
         alt="Steven Bolen campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Steven Bolen, Democratic candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 9A. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Of all the signs I’ve seen that try to use a map of Maryland as a design element, this is the only one where I think it works. Maryland has a strange asymmetrical shape, so it’s difficult to fit into a design. The secret here is to use the northern and eastern boundaries of Maryland to complete the rectangle of which “Steven” and “Bolen” form the left and bottom sides.</p>
<p>The other parts of the sign work well too: the brownish orange and blue match well, the text looks clean and readable, and it’s a nice touch to have the color of “District 9A” match the color of the Maryland map.</p>
<p>The only things I’m not 100% on board with are the wavy lines that evoke the shape of a fluttering flag. They’re OK as a way to fill the space above and below the main sign content, and I really can’t imagine a good alternative, but for some reason they didn’t totally win me over.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-bill-mcmahon.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-bill-mcmahon-embed.jpg"
         alt="Bill McMahon campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Bill McMahon, Republican candidate for Howard County Sheriff. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As I mentioned in my last post, for some reason candidates for Howard County Sheriff are fond of the black on yellow color scheme: Jim Fitzgerald used this color scheme in 2014, and Marcus Harris is also using it this year.</p>
<p>This is a reasonably good example of the type: readable, with good emphasis on the name “McMahon,” and a sheriff’s-badge design element that doesn’t over-complicate the design. It has a slogan, but it’s nice and crisp.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-china-williams.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-china-williams-embed.jpg"
         alt="China Williams campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>China Williams, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 5. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>A good minimal high-contrast sign that provides the key information needed by voters. It’s worth noting that “China” is almost twice as large as “Williams”. This is partly dictated by the last name being significantly longer, and thus less tall when both names occupy the width of the sign. However it also makes sense from a name recognition perspective, since “China” is more memorable than “Williams.”</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-wayne-robey.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-wayne-robey-embed.jpg"
         alt="Wayne Robey campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Wayne Robey, Democratic candidate for Howard County Clerk of the Circuit Court. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is a good example of using red, white, and blue together: the red ribbon and blue star design elements together give a bright and even playful air to the sign that makes it more attractive.</p>
<p>The black text also provides good contrast with the white background. However I’m not really sure why such a blocky and angular typeface was chosen for “Robey”. It looks a bit strange, especially since the red and blue design elements are curved.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-byron-macfarlane.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-byron-macfarlane-embed.jpg"
         alt="Byron Macfarlane campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Byron Macfarlane, Democratic candidate for Howard County Register of Wills. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Byron Macfarlane has a record of good-looking signs, and this one is in that tradition: legible and minimal text, clean and bold typography, attractive colors that go well together, and a jaunty design element in the upper left. Note that it follows the same strategy as several other signs of contrasting alternating lines of white and colored text throughout the sign.</p>
<p>Also note that “Byron” is set in a slight larger size than “Macfarlane,” even though it really doesn’t need to be (since “Byron” isn’t intended to take up the full width of the sign. However making “Byron” larger provides better visual balance against both “Macfarlane” and the design element in the upper left. It also has the side effect of implying the candidate is a familar presence and on a first-name basis with his constituents after two terms in office.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-gail-bates.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-gail-bates-embed.jpg"
         alt="Gail Bates campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Gail Bates, Republican candidate for Maryland State Senate, District 9. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign is almost but not quite identical to the <a href="/2014/06/20/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-district-9/">sign that Gail Bates used in 2014</a>. The only change I can discern is that the new sign omits the word “For” in “For State Senate”&mdash;probably because this year Bates is an incumbent.</p>
<p>Because I’m getting tired I’ll just quote my comments from 2014:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is a good sign, especially for using only two colors. The “BATES” is large and readable in a clear serif typeface, and the smaller “Gail” in a script typeface adds a nice informal, almost personal, note. The integration of the Maryland flag-inspired banner is also done very well; note that the banner is outlined to prevent confusion between the sign background and the white parts of the banner.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(The outline I was referring to is the one on top of the banner where it meets the border of the sign.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-katie-fry-hester.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-katie-fry-hester-embed.jpg"
         alt="Katie Fry Hester campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Katie Fry Hester, Democratic candidate for Maryland State Senate, District 9. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This particular example of the sign is marred (in my opinion) by the endorsement logos, but the sign underneath is pretty good. I like the colors, with the light purple of “Katie Fry” contrasting well with the dark purple background and the white text of “Hester”. Setting “Katie Fry” right above “Hester” with almost no linespacing also provides a little visual interest where the descender of the “y” intrudes just a bit on the “T.”</p>
<p>Unlike the China Williams sign above with “China” featured prominently, this sign puts much more emphasis on the last name “Hester”. Here the situation is reversed: “Hester” is a more unusual name than “Katie,” and so it makes sense to make it the focus of the sign and to relegate “Katie Fry” to a secondary role.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-robert-miller.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-robert-miller-embed.jpg"
         alt="Robert Miller campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Robert Miller, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I’m not sure if the greenish-gray background color on this sign was intended to evoke a blackboard or not. In any case, while I’m not a big fan of that particular color it does provide a good contrast with the white text. The text itself is clear and readable.</p>
<p>As I’ve previously mentioned, I’m not a fan of putting endorsement logos on signs. The color of the two “Teacher Recommended” logos here clashes somewhat with the background color, and the logos look a bit strange perched on the “shoulders” of “Miller.”</p>
<p>However the design element I’m more concerned about is the steering wheel at the middle of the bottom white stripe. Someone down my street has this sign in their yard, and I must have passed it dozens of times. I also saw it at even closer range when I went to vote. However it was not until I actually looked closely at the sign when reviewing it that I finally figured out that the thing at the bottom was a steering wheel, and I was able to connect it with the “Learning driven” slogan.</p>
<p>In the interest of a simpler design and not confusing people looking at the sign, I think it might have been better to leave the steering wheel off and just include the slogan. Alternately the design could be revamped entirely to make the steering wheel bigger and make it a more integral part of the design.</p>
<p>And with that I conclude my reviews, after discussing 58 signs in all. <del>Please vote for the best sign of those discussed in this article.</del></p>
<p>UPDATE: Voting is closed. See <a href="/2018/06/26/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-7/">part 7</a> for all the signs that advanced to the final round.</p>
<p>A special bonus: tomorrow (Primary Tuesday) please check <a href="https://twitter.com/hecker">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/1206041076156392/">Facebook</a> for your opportunity to vote for the best of the best. I will create one final survey with the winners of each day’s vote and (if appropriate) a “wild card” entry I feel deserves inclusion, and will do a final post on Wednesday with the top three vote-getters.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2018 campaign signs, part 5</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/24/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-5/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 24 Jun 2018 11:45:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/24/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-5/</guid>
      <description>I’m in the home stretch now in the race to review Howard County 2018 campaign signs.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-5.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-5-embed.jpg"
         alt="2018 campaign signs at the Miller Branch library"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Campaign signs and canvassers at the Miller Branch library. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I’m in the home stretch now in the race to review Howard County 2018 campaign signs. This post features signs from Hiruy Hadgu, Natalie Ziegler, Jessica Feldmark, John Francis McMahon, Clarence Lam, James Howard, Liz Walsh, Ian Moller-Knudsen, Marcus Harris, and Jeremy Eldridge.</em></p>
<p>You should know the drill by now: ten signs, ten reviews, order is random, survey link at the end, more background at <a href="/2018/06/19/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-1/">part 1</a>.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-hiruy-hadgu.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-hiruy-hadgu-embed.jpg"
         alt="Hiruy Hadgu campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Hiruy Hadgu, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 3. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The color is an unusual choice relative to other political signs, but I think it works well and gives a good contrast with the white lettering. You also certainly can’t fault the prominence and legibility of the candidate’s name&mdash;helped here by the fact that both first and last names have only five characters each.</p>
<p>The first name actually looks slightly larger than the last name. This appears to be due to the first name having an “i” rather than an “a”. Since all the other characters in each name are the same or of similar width, setting both names to the same overall width forces the last name to be slightly smaller to fit, since the letter “i” is narrower than the letter “a.”</p>
<p>The only thing I would question on this sign is the treatment of the “for” in “Democrat for County Council,” which is just set in a lighter version of the same typeface used for the rest of the line. It might have been better to set it in lower case and italics, a strategy used on other signs.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-natalie-ziegler.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-natalie-ziegler-embed.jpg"
         alt="campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Natalie Ziegler, Democratic candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 9A. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Candidates love endorsements, but fans of candidates’ signs like me hate them because they often result in endorsement logos being slapped on signs and obscuring the design. That’s the case here, with the Sierra Club green in particular clashing greatly with the red and blue color scheme.</p>
<p>Although it’s interesting: if the endorsement logos weren’t there it looks like there’d be a lot of space between “Delegate for 9A” and “Natalie”. It’s almost as if the sign were designed to leave sufficient space for the logos.</p>
<p>Otherwise the sign looks fine. Note the inclusion of a thin white strip between to the red and blue parts of the sign to avoid directly juxtaposing those two colors and give the sign more of a “red, white, and blue” feel.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jessica-feldmark.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jessica-feldmark-embed.jpg"
         alt="Jessica Feldmark campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jessica Feldmark, Democratic candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 12. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign takes a different approach, boldly interrupting a blue background with a diagonal slash of bright red. It also uses drop shadows on the text for “Jessica Feldmark,” a unique choice among 2018 signs, making the text seem to float above the blue and red background.</p>
<p>The overall result is a sign that looks good and stands out from the crowd.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-john-francis-mcmahon.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-john-francis-mcmahon-embed.jpg"
         alt="John Francis McMahon campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>John Francis McMahon, Democratic candidate for Howard County Sheriff. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>There’s not a whole lot to say about this sign. The green background is common among Democratic candidates here and elsewhere, and the main typeface is legible and looks professional. The only design element is the badge icon within the letter “o”. Candidates for sheriff (almost?) always include some form of badge in their signs; this one is well-integrated into the overall design.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-clarence-lam.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-clarence-lam-embed.jpg"
         alt="Clarence Lam campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Clarence Lam, Democratic candidate for Maryland Senate, District 12, and Eric Ebersole and Terri Hill, Democratic candidates for Maryland House of Delegates, District 12. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign is very reminiscent of <a href="/2014/06/18/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-12/">Clarence Lam’s 2014 sign</a>: bold yellow text in the same sans serif typeface, a dark background to provide high contrast, and a small horizontally-centered banner-like design element to add some visual interest but not detract from the candidate’s name.</p>
<p>It’s worth noting that the 2014 signs for Eric Ebersole and Terri Hill were somewhat quirky and visually busy. Now that they’re on a slate with Clarence Lam they’ve adopted his philosophy of stripped-down “get it done” minimalism when it comes to signs. As with Lam’s 2014 sign, I don’t think this philosophy produces signs that are particularly attractive or interesting from a design perspective, but they are undeniably effective when it comes to the basic job of promoting the candidates’ names.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-james-howard.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-james-howard-embed.jpg"
         alt="James Howard campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>James Howard, Democratic candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 12. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign is in many ways the opposite of the Lam/Ebersole/Hill sign, and shows that there is such a thing as being too subtle from a design perspective. First, why is the candidate’s name so relatively small? There’s a lot of unused area on this sign that could have been devoted to text.</p>
<p>Second, what is the image on the bottom of the sign supposed to be? At first glance I thought it was an American flag. At second glance I thought it was a Maryland flag. Now I’m doubting even that.</p>
<p>If you’ve read this series thus far you’ll know that I like to see design sophistication and even elegance in signs. But I also think that to be effective as signs they need to be more “in your face” than this one is.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-liz-walsh.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-liz-walsh-embed.jpg"
         alt="Liz Walsh campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Liz Walsh, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 1. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I chose the order of these signs randomly (or rather, my computer did it for me), but it’s almost as if the order were designed to help me make certain points. Here’s a good example of a sign that employs sophisticated design in the service of highlighting the candidate.</p>
<p>There are at least four separate design “tricks” in the sign. The first and most prominent is the use of a light blue background with dark blue diagonal stripes (or a dark blue background with light blue stripes, depending on how you look at it). This is very attention-grabbing, almost looking like a glossy metallic surface over which the white text floats.</p>
<p>The second is the rounded corners on the background, reminiscent of an old-style TV set. By leaving the actual corners of the sign blank, this focuses attention on the middle of the sign where the candidate’s name is located.</p>
<p>The third is having the vertical stems of the letters “L” and “H” flow into the white border. (This was made possible in the first place because of the particular forms of those letters, and because “Liz Walsh” is a short enough name to fit on one line.)  This impairs readability of the name just a tad, but produces a striking effect.</p>
<p>Fourth (and most subtle) is the thin black (?) outline on the white letters of the text. This helps to separate the letters from the light blue/dark blue background and make them “pop.”</p>
<p>Finally, the sign shows a good strategy for handling endorsement logos and other ancillary sign elements: don’t put them on the sign itself, but attach them to a corner where they’re prominent but don’t obscure the main part of the sign.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-ian-moller-knudsen.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-ian-moller-knudsen-embed.jpg"
         alt="Ian Moller-Knudsen campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Ian Moller-Knudsen, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 4. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>We’re now back to relatively plain signs. The sign designer here faced the problem that “Moller-Knudsen” is a long name that’s hard to fit on a sign without making the text relatively small. Some signs address that problem by breaking the name at the hyphen and splitting it across two lines&mdash;see for example the <a href="/2014/06/18/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-12/">2014 sign for Renée McGuirk-Spence</a>.</p>
<p>I think a similar strategy could have been followed for this sign, especially since “Moller” and “Knudsen” are almost the same length. The extra line required could have been compensated for by removing the “Elect” text in the upper left corner. As it is that text sits all by itself and occupies space and visual attention that could instead go to the candidate’s name and office sought.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-marcus-harris.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-marcus-harris-embed.jpg"
         alt="Marcus Harris campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Marcus Harris, Democratic candidate for Howard County Sheriff. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>There seems to be an unwritten rule that candidates for Howard County Sheriff should use signs that consist of black text on a yellow background with a sheriff’s badge. Jim Fitzgerald had signs like this both in <a href="/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/">2010</a> and <a href="/2014/06/06/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-sheriff/">2014</a>. (John Newnan had one in 2014 that reversed the scheme and used yellow on black.)</p>
<p>In this cycle the tradition is continued by Marcus Harris and (as we’ll see in the next post) Bill McMahon, while John Francis McMahon goes his own way (as seen above). Harris’s sign has the key elements, with the name displayed prominently and legibly in a conventional san serif typeface. The yellow is bright and not muddy, and the sign also has a white border, which I think always helps the main part of the sign stand out more. (At least one of Jim Fitzgerald’s signs didn’t have such a border, and I think suffered for it.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jeremy-eldridge.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jeremy-eldridge-embed.jpg"
         alt="Jeremy Eldridge campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jeremy Eldridge, candidate for Howard County Democratic Central Committee. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The last sign for today is another sign for a Central Committee Candidate. I think the design for this sign flows from the candidate’s name being relatively long at eight characters and the choice to use all caps for the text. That means that the area for the name on the sign has to be relatively small (unless the letters were stretched vertically) and the designer has to fill the rest of the sign with other elements.</p>
<p>In this case the chosen strategy was to divide the sign horizontally into three areas of equal height, with the office sought and authority line in the bottom section and “Vote for” in the top section. It’s a reasonable approach, with my only nit being that the sign looks a little bottom-heavy because of the large amount of text in that section relative to the middle and (especially) top sections.</p>
<p>Otherwise the sign looks fine: the colors are attractive and the typography looks clean and readable.</p>
<p>49 signs reviewed thus far, and 9 to go; the next post should cover
all the rest of them. <del>Check <a href="https://twitter.com/hecker">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/1206041076156392/">Facebook</a> for the next article, and don’t forget to vote for the best sign of those discussed in this article.</del></p>
<p>UPDATE: Voting is closed. See <a href="/2018/06/26/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-7/">part 7</a> for all the signs that advanced to the final round.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2018 campaign signs, part 4</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/23/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-4/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 23 Jun 2018 11:45:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/23/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-4/</guid>
      <description>My reviews of 2018 campaign signs in Howard County continue.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-4.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-4-embed.jpg"
         alt="2018 campaign signs at the Miller Branch library"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Campaign signs at the entrance to the Miller Branch library. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I’m continuing my reviews of 2018 campaign signs in Howard County. This post features signs from Mary Kay Sigaty, Shawn Conley, Sabina Taj, Anne Dodd, Elizabeth Ann Fitch, Saif Rehman, Rich Gibson, Allan Kittleman, David Yungmann, and Chao Wu.</em></p>
<p>As in the <a href="/2018/06/22/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-3/">last post</a> I review ten different signs, again in random order. For more on this series see <a href="/2018/06/19/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-1/">part 1</a>.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-mary-kay-sigaty.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-mary-kay-sigaty-embed.jpg"
         alt="Mary Kay Sigaty small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Mary Kay Sigaty, Democratic candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 12. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign is put together reasonably well, but it seems a bit busy to me. That’s likely because the Maryland flag (attractive though it may be) is a bit busy visually, and this sign devotes a fair amount of background space to it.</p>
<p>Otherwise the sign is fine. The typography is varied, with the typeface used for “Mary Kay” providing a note of informality. The sign also follows the rules for the four colors of the Maryland flag: match yellow with black (as in the “Mary Kay” and ”Democrat for State Senate” text) and match red with white (as in the “District 12” text), but <em>never</em> juxtapose red with yellow if you can help it.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-shawn-conley.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-shawn-conley-embed.jpg"
         alt="Shawn Conley small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Shawn Conley, Democratic candidate for Howard County Register of Wills. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is sort of a middle-of-the-road sign: it’s legible, prominently features the key information, and has a little bit of a design element in the white stripe joining up with the descender of the “y,” but otherwise there’s not a lot that makes it stand out from the pack.</p>
<p>The one exception is the inclusion of a small photo of the candidate. This must have been intended for people encountering the sign close up, like at a voting location, because this would be almost impossible to make out if you were just driving by.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-sabina-taj.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-sabina-taj-embed.jpg"
         alt="Sabina Taj small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Sabina Taj, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The thing that really jumps out at you about this sign is the horizontal slightly wavy stripe that forms the crossbar of the capital “A”. There’s actually a fair bit of subtlety to this element: if you look really closely you can see that there’s a thin black stripe separating the upper blue part of the stripe from the lower red part. I’m not sure exactly why it was included; possibly it’s to avoid directly juxtaposing red and blue, two colors that cause visual issues when seen side-by-side.</p>
<p>The horizontal stripe is echoed by the smaller stripe separating “Howard County” from “Board of Education”. This smaller stripe is also composed of three smaller stripes, red and blue with black between them.</p>
<p>Like Clarence Lam, Sabina Taj is blessed with a three-letter last name that can be displayed at an extremely large size. Her first name isn’t that long either, so it can be shown at a large size as well. In combination with the stripe design element and the high contrast between the dark blue text and the white background the result is a sign that does a very good job of highlighting the candidate’s name.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-anne-dodd.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-anne-dodd-embed.jpg"
         alt="Anne Dodd small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Anne Dodd, Democratic candidate for Judge of the Orphans’ Court. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Like other Judge of the Orphans’ Court incumbents, Anne Dodd is reusing the design from her <a href="/2014/06/14/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-judge-of-the-orphans-court/">2014 sign</a>. Here’s what I wrote about it in the last cycle:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This is a good example of a effective minimal sign design: Only as much text as needed, a single and simple sans serif typeface (the “for” appears to be simply in an oblique version of the main typeface), no extraneous design elements, and only a single color other than white. I have only one criticism: When viewed from a distance the “D” and “O” in “DODD” look somewhat similar, so that the name looks like “OOOO” or “DDDD”. A different typeface might have helped this, or alternatively using both upper and lower case (“Dodd” vs. “DODD”).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The only change this time was to add the word “Re-elect” in the upper left corner, similar to what Nicole Bormel Miller did with her sign. This somewhat mars the pure minimalism of the original sign, but overall the sign still looks good.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-elizabeth-ann-fitch.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-elizabeth-ann-fitch-embed.jpg"
         alt="Elizabeth Ann Fitch small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Elizabeth Ann Fitch, Democratic candidate for Judge of the Orphans’ Court. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Another Orphans’ Court sign, this one is an interesting case: the color is great, the typeface is elegant and “Fitch” stands out nicely, but to me the white rectangle around “Orphans’ Court” makes the sign look slightly bottom-heavy.</p>
<p>I presume the designer tried just using white text on the same blue background for “Orphans’ Court” and preferred the approach they ultimately took, possibly to make the name of the office stand out a bit more. I’m just a rank amateur, so I’m not going to second-guess their decision.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-saif-rehman.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-saif-rehman-embed.jpg"
         alt="Saif Rehman campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Saif Rehman, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I will confess to a bias here: I generally don’t like signs that are just black (or in this case, what appears to be almost dark blue) text on an overall yellow background. I just don’t think it’s an attractive color combination, especially when those are the only two colors on the sign. I’ll try to put away that bias a bit for the moment, but even taking a more neutral attitude this sign doesn’t really stand out too much.</p>
<p>One thing I wonder about is whether the designer contemplated putting the candidate’s first name in the upper left. There’s plenty of room for it, and it would have balanced out the “Ph.D.” mortarboard in the upper right. As it is the empty space causes the sign to look a bit bottom heavy.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-rich-gibson.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-rich-gibson-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rich Gibson campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rich Gibson, Democratic candidate for Howard County State’s Attorney. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>For some reason people running for State’s Attorney have a track record of producing excellent campaign signs: I thought <a href="/2014/06/08/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-states-attorney/">Dario Broccolino’s 2014 sign</a> was the overall best of that election cycle, and Kim Oldham’s sign in this cycle stands out as well.</p>
<p>Rich Gibson’s 2014 sign was no slouch either, but his new sign is even better in all respects: the 2014 black and orange colors have been upgraded to a deep blue and a brighter orange. All text is now in the same sans serif typeface, with some text in orange for visual contrast. (Note that it’s less important text: the candidate’s last name and office sought are still in white for maximum impact.)</p>
<p>The Howard County map design element has been replaced with two more effective elements, an orange checkmark that lends visual interest to “Gibson” and an element in the lower right corner that evokes the Maryland flag. (In case you’re interested, the official name for that part of the flag is a “cross bottony.”)</p>
<p>All in all this is a very good-looking sign that also checks all the boxes for what you want to see in a campaign sign.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-allan-kittleman.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-allan-kittleman-embed.jpg"
         alt="Allan Kittleman campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Allan Kittleman, Republican candidate for Howard County Executive. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As far as I can tell this is almost but not quite the same sign Allan Kittleman used in his 2014 race for Howard County Executive. The main change appears to be a change in aspect ratio: relative to the <a href="/2014/06/24/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-executive/">2014 sign</a> that I reviewed the current sign is wider, so that the letters appear to be less narrow than on the previous sign. (This doesn’t apply to the red banner though, which appears to have kept its previous width and now takes up a bit less of the total width of the sign.)</p>
<p>The old sign also had the website name in the lower right. It was removed from the new sign&mdash;probably a good idea, since it was small, hard to read, and detracted from the overall design.</p>
<p>Since the 2014 sign was a pretty good sign and Kittleman won that race, I presume he decided to stick with a winning formula. I’ll do the same, and just quote part of what I wrote last time:</p>
<blockquote>
<p><a href="/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/">I’ve previously written</a> about the problems inherent in using all four colors of the Maryland flag in a single sign. This sign handles those problems as well as they can be handled, mainly by avoiding the red text on yellow background found in signs from Trent Kittleman, Frank Mirabile, and others. Instead this sign carefully restricts itself to the exact color juxtapositions found the Maryland flag: black with yellow, and red with white. More specifically, it restricts itself to what I think are the best color combinations: black text on a yellow background and white text on a red background.</p>
<p>Some other things to note about this sign: The typeface is clean and readable; it’s bold enough to stand out but light enough to allow adequate space between the letters. Using both upper and lower case in “Kittleman” means that the text isn’t quite as wide as it would be if it were in all upper case, and thus it can fit better on the sign. . . .</p>
<p>The red banner-like design element in the upper right corner is well-done; note that on the left side of the element the yellow background seems to form an arrowhead pointing to the “Proven Independent Leader” slogan. The slogan itself points diagonally upward to the right to make the sign more dynamic (the same technique used on the Dario Broccolino sign). Finally, note that the horizontal line separating “Kittleman” from “Howard County Executive” is not just red on yellow (a poor combination) but is both red and white in order to maintain the preferred color juxtapositions I mentioned above.</p>
<p>The one thing that bothered me about this sign is that the “Howard County Executive” seems a bit thin. When I was walking around the neighborhood I had some trouble making that text out when viewing the sign from a distance.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The increased width of the 2018 sign doesn’t help readability of the “Howard County Executive” text, since it’s now stretched out a bit further.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-david-yungmann.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-david-yungmann-embed.jpg"
         alt="David Yungmann campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>David Yungmann, Republican candidate for Howard County Council, District 5. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The color scheme on this sign is very reminiscent of the colors on <a href="/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/">Warren Miller’s 2014 sign</a>: a very dark blue/black combined with a red that’s bright but not garish. I thought that was a very effective combination on Miller’s sign, and it looks good here too. The major difference is that this sign has blue/black on the top and red on the bottom, reversing the colors from Miller’s sign. For the record, I prefer red on top; I think having red on the bottom makes the sign look a bit top-heavy.</p>
<p>The most significant issue with this sign is not the fault of the designer. Rather it’s that “Yungmann” is a relatively long name, and to fit it within the vertical area allotted to it requires making the letters relatively tall and narrow. This is turn makes the name look horizontally squished and impairs readability somewhat.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-chao-wu.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-chao-wu-embed.jpg"
         alt="Chao Wu campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Chao Wu, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>In the last cycle Clarence Lam had the shortest last name of any candidate, and <a href="/2014/06/18/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-12/">Lam’s 2014 sign</a> took full advantage of that fact to make the candidate’s last name as prominent as possible. In this cycle Chao Wu goes Lam one better with a two-letter family name.</p>
<p>However, rather than having “Wu” totally take over the design, his sign exploits the fact that Wu’s given name is also short, so that the entire name can fit comfortably in one line and still be large enough to have good readability and high impact. It also use mixed upper and lower case for the name, which I think was a good decision: besides improving readability somewhat, it also helps ensure that voters don’t misinterpret “Chao Wu” as a single undifferentiated family name “CHAOWU.”</p>
<p>As far as other aspects, though Chao Wu is running for a nonpartisan position and <del>I have no idea of his party affiliation</del> he’s an independent, the sign color scheme <del>looks very similar to</del> is reminiscent of that used by Republicans David Yungmann and Warren Miller, with a deep blue/black and bright red. The major difference is that the blue/black is used for the text, not the background. I wonder what the sign would have looked like with the slogan in white text on a blue/black background (which would have matched Warren Miller’s sign); I suspect it would not have worked as well but have not tried this out in an image editor.</p>
<p>All in all this is a good sign, readable for the important bits (name and position sought) and with straightforward attractive colors and typeface. My only concern is with the slogan: I think it’s OK to have a slogan because the sign has only three lines, but it seems just a tad cluttered compared to the rest of the sign.</p>
<p>39 signs reviewed thus far, at least 18 to go&mdash;perhaps more if I can
find signs for a few candidates who didn’t have signs at the Miller Branch early voting location. <del>Check <a href="https://twitter.com/hecker">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/1206041076156392/">Facebook</a> for the next article, and don’t forget to vote for the best sign of those discussed in this article.</del></p>
<p>UPDATE: Voting is closed. See <a href="/2018/06/26/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-7/">part 7</a> for all the signs that advanced to the final round.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2018 campaign signs, part 3</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/22/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-3/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 22 Jun 2018 07:55:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/22/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-3/</guid>
      <description>We’re halfway through my reviews of 2018 campaign signs in Howard County.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-3.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-3-embed.jpg"
         alt="2018 campaign signs at the Miller Branch library"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Campaign signs at the entrance to the Miller Branch library. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I’m now at the halfway point in my reviews of 2018 campaign signs in Howard County. This post features signs from Christiana Rigby, Carleen Pena, Calvin Ball, Nicole Bormel Miller, Danny Mackey, Harry Dunbar, Guy Guzzone and fellow Team 13 members Vanessa Atterbeary, Shane Pendergrass, and Jen Terrasa, Courtney Watson, Steve Hunt, and Anita Pandey.</em></p>
<p>As in the <a href="/2018/06/21/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-2/">last post</a> I review ten different signs, again in random order. For more on this series see <a href="/2018/06/19/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-1/">part 1</a>.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-christiana-rigby.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-christiana-rigby-embed.jpg"
         alt="Christiana Rigby small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Christiana Rigby, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 3. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign has a couple of interesting aspects. First, it features the candidate’s first name more prominently than her last name: the type size is the same and her first name is in a bolder version of the same typeface used for her last name. Is Rigby trying to build name recognition for herself based primarily on her first name (like “Krish for Maryland”), or is it just a fluke of the design?</p>
<p>Either way, that causes a problem for the design, since now “Rigby” looks relatively unbalanced on the left side. The large “Teacher Recommended” helps rebalance the design, but it also (at least to me) makes the sign look more like a Board of Education sign than a County Council sign&mdash;especially since “Democrat for County Council” is on a lighter background that provides less contrast for the text and impairs readability a bit.</p>
<p>Don’t get me wrong: I think this is overall an attractive and professional sign. I just wonder about the decisions that went into this particular design.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-carleen-pena.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-carleen-pena-embed.jpg"
         alt="Carleen Pena small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Carleen Pena, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Every election cycle sees its share of what I’ll call “utilitarian” signs. These are basic signs with a white background and one other color, typically divided into three sections with the text and background colors reversed on the middle section, with the same plain sans serif typeface used on all three sections.</p>
<p>For a past example of this type of sign in its purest form see <a href="/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/">Kay Hartleb’s plain 2010 sign</a>. This one varies the formula a bit by having four lines of text, so the middle section includes both “Carleen” and “Pena.”</p>
<p>Critiquing the design of a sign like this is somewhat beside the point. It does the job of putting the candidate’s name out there, and that’s about it. (Although I will say that I think the typeface on the top and bottom lines of text seems a bit thin for best readability, and putting “Carleen” on the left rather than centered makes the sign unbalanced.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-calvin-ball.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-calvin-ball-embed.jpg"
         alt="Calvin Ball small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Calvin Ball, Democratic candidate for Howard County Executive. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>A good solid sign, professional looking but not flashy. The color scheme is good and somewhat reminiscent of that on Byron Macfarlane’s sign (to be reviewed in a future post), but it doesn’t “pop” quite as much. There’s also a nice contrast in the typography: lower case serif for the first name, upper case serif for the last name, then upper case san serif for the office.</p>
<p>Note the subtle green design elements on either side of “Calvin”: they’re a nice touch, helping the name visually balance against the larger last name, and echoing the green rectangle around “Howard County Executive.”</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-nicole-bormel-miller.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-nicole-bormel-miller-embed.jpg"
         alt="Nicole Bormel Miller small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Nicole Bormel Miller, Democratic candidate for Judge of the Orphans’ Court. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Like fellow Judge of the Orphans’ Court candidates Leslie Smith Turner and (as we’ll see) Anne Dodd, Nicole Bormel Miller is reusing the basic design from her <a href="/2014/06/14/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-judge-of-the-orphans-court/">2014 sign</a>. Here’s what I wrote about it in the last cycle:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This sign has a nice purple background color (a break from the usual yellow or red), a good balance between the white foreground and purple background, and an interesting serif typeface. As with the [Shari] Chase sign, I take points away for not spelling “Orphans’” properly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The major change for this year’s sign is the addition of the “Re-elect” text in the upper left corner, since (unlike 2014) she’s running as an incumbent. That in turn forces the “Nicole Bormel” text to be smaller and further to the right. It’s still an attractive sign, but it now looks just a tad unbalanced.</p>
<p>I should add that Miller’s last name is quite common&mdash;in fact, it’s shared by two other candidates in this cycle, Warren Miller and Robert Miller&mdash;and she apparently always uses her middle name. Thus she has a lot of text to fit on a sign. I think using lower case on the top and bottom lines of text, with only “Miller” in upper case, helps lighten the look of the sign and make it look less dense.</p>
<p>Finally, not to be pedantic, there’s still no apostrophe on “Orphans’.”</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-danny-mackey.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-danny-mackey-embed.jpg"
         alt="Danny Mackey small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Danny Mackey, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is a good sign. I was originally going to write that I wasn’t a fan of the background color, but in looking at the sign again I think it’s quite handsome&mdash;and because there’s no yellow in the sign it doesn’t remind me of the Washington Redskins. (This has nothing to do with my attitude toward the football team, I just don’t like their team colors, especially when the burgundy tilts to the bright side.)</p>
<p>The “Mackey” is quite visible and impactful, and the text size and condensed typeface on “Danny” matches it well. In fact, all the text on this sign looks good and has variety, despite all of it being in upper case and using variants of the same sans serif typeface.</p>
<p>A further nice subtle touch is shown on the stars to the right of “Danny”. The stars (or some other design element) are needed to balance out the left-justified “Danny,” but if the stars were solid white then they would pull focus from the candidate’s name. (I tried this out in an image editor to gauge the effect.)  Instead the stars look like they were hand-drawn in scribbles, which both lets some of the background through, lightening the look of the stars, and also provides some informality in an otherwise fairly formal sign. (Folks, this is why you hire graphic design professionals.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-harry-dunbar.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-harry-dunbar-embed.jpg"
         alt="Harry Dunbar small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Harry Dunbar, Democratic candidate for Howard County Executive. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign does a good job of putting the candidate’s name front and center, as well as highlighting the office being sought. The colors are good as well, especially the red. Normally I don’t like to see red design elements directly on a blue background, because the contrast can be problematic. (We’ll see some other signs where this is true.)  In this case though the brightness of the red and the white text within the red rectangle provide improved contrast and alleviate this concern.</p>
<p>It’s an open question whether it would be worth adding a design element in the upper left to balance the left-justified “Harry”. I tried something like this in an image editor and I’m not sure it was worth it.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-guy-guzzone.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-guy-guzzone-embed.jpg"
         alt="Guy Guzzone small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Guy Guzzone, Democratic candidate for Maryland Senate, District 13, and his fellow Team 13 Democratic candidates for Maryland Hose of Delegates, Vanessa Atterbeary, Shane Pendergrass, and Jen Terrasa. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I previously referred to <a href="/2014/06/19/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-13/">Team 13’s 2014 sign</a> as “bare-vanilla minimalism,” since it consisted of red text on a white background with only very minimal design elements.</p>
<p>This sign is less minimal, introducing as it does a new color (black) and a non-trivial design element that also serves to identify the candidates as ”Team 13”. I don’t think the black text is all that readable against the black background, but the sign accomplishes its purpose, namely to associate the names of the candidates in your mind as members of a slate. The text for those names looks good and has good contrast with the background.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-courtney-watson.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-courtney-watson-embed.jpg"
         alt="Courtney Watson small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Courtney Watson, Democratic candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 9B. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Another blast from the past, this time from Courtney Watson, as she updates the <a href="/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/">sign design she used in 2010</a> in her (successful) race for County Council, abandoning the <a href="/2014/06/24/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-executive/">2014 design</a> she used in her (unsuccessful) race for County Executive. A bit of superstition, perhaps?</p>
<p>Here’s my review of the 2010 sign:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Large text that conveys only the basic information needed, nice contrasting typefaces (with the top one lending an air of liveliness to the sign), a unique choice of complementary colors (including a subtle gradient on the bottom half), and good balance in the design between the top half, the bottom half, and the white border. But what really takes this design from good to great is the stand of wheat to the right: it adds visual interest, ties back to the official Howard County seal, and evokes the rural past of the country in a way calculated to appeal both to conservative older residents and more liberal newcomers concerned about environmental issues. This one got my vote for the best Howard County campaign sign of 2010.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The new sign adds her first name (in the same case and typeface as her last name) but otherwise retains the virtues of the 2010 sign, with one exception: I think the white border on this sign is too wide, especially at the top.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-steve-hunt.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-steve-hunt-embed.jpg"
         alt="Steve Hunt small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Steve Hunt, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 3. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I think the typeface on this sign is too thin, and the Maryland flag design element on the right may be too subtle, but this sign has a problem that has nothing to do with the design itself: Apparently the material of which the sign is made is so thin/transparent that parts of the other side of the sign show through in reverse. It’s both disconcerting and makes the sign less readable.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-anita-pandey.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-anita-pandey-embed.jpg"
         alt="Anita Pandey campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Anita Pandey, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  I was able to get a photo featuring Dr. Pandey herself (and her book).</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is the classic “chalk on blackboard” theme for a sign for a Board of Education race, a design last used by <a href="/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/">Bob Ballinger in the 2010 election</a>, if I remember right. This version is a bit busier than Ballinger’s, mainly due to the slogan at the bottom, but otherwise it’s a good example of this particular type of sign, legible with an attractive color.</p>
<p>I’m not a big fan of slogans on campaign signs, but I have to admit that “best in class” is a good pun. I also like the little mortarboard design element taking the place of the “i” in “Anita.”</p>
<p>Note that on Facebook Anita Pandey pointed me to an alternate design for this sign. I couldn’t see it too well because the image was small, but it looked like the alternate version replaced the “i” in “Anita” with a more extensive design element that combines a scroll (representing a diploma, presumably) and mortarboard, both drawn in a more cartooney fashion. In my opinion the original version is preferable; its version of the mortarboard design element is more subtle and doesn’t pull focus from the candidate’s name.</p>
<p>I’ve now commented on 29 signs out of a total of almost sixty for which I have pictures. Hopefully it will be all downhill from here. <del>Check <a href="https://twitter.com/hecker">Twitter</a> and <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/1206041076156392/">Facebook</a> for the next article, and don’t forget to vote for the best sign of those discussed in this article.</del></p>
<p>UPDATE: Voting is closed. See <a href="/2018/06/26/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-7/">part 7</a> for all the signs that advanced to the final round.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2018 campaign signs, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/21/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 21 Jun 2018 08:05:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/21/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-2/</guid>
      <description>I continue my look at 2018 campaign signs in Howard County.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-2.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-2-embed.jpg"
         alt="2018 campaign signs at the Miller Branch library"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>More campaign signs along Frederick Road at the Miller Branch library. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I continue my look at 2018 campaign signs in Howard County with signs from Melanie Harris, Janet Siddiqui, Shahan Rizvi, Reid Novotny, Scott Berkowitz, Deb Jung, Larry Pretlow, Vicky Cutroneo, Raj Kathuria, and Jim Walsh.</em></p>
<p>No rest for the weary, as I continue looking at 2018 campaign signs for local Howard County races. (“Local” here means not statewide and not for Federal positions.)  This time I step up the pace a tiny bit and review ten different signs, again in random order. For more on this series see <a href="/2018/06/19/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-1/">part 1</a>.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-melanie-harris.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-melanie-harris-embed.jpg"
         alt="Melanie Harris small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Melanie Harris, Republican candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 12. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is a reasonable looking sign, albeit somewhat dense and crowded in terms of the amount of information it tries to fit in. However the candidate’s name is quite readable, and the sign makes it clear what office she’s running for. Though busy the design is also relatively clean, with good use of the Maryland flag and some variation in the typefaces across the multiple lines of text.</p>
<p>Regarding the amount of information, I can see in a way why she included her website name on the sign: “Melanie Harris” is a fairly common name, and an Internet search for it returns a lot of irrelevant results. Also, the obvious website choice of “melanieharris.com” seems to be taken by someone else, with the site not even loading properly. Thus presumably the desire to highlight the candidate’s website “harrisinthehouse.com”&mdash;which I admit is a clever domain name.</p>
<p>But was it necessary to add a slogan too? One point to note is that the slogan is somewhat at odds with the sign design: “Smaller Government” is of course a standard Republican slogan, but the sign colors are green and white, colors traditionally associated with Democrats. I can’t help thinking this sign would have been more internally consistent in its messaging if it were in red, white, and blue.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-janet-siddiqui.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-janet-siddiqui-embed.jpg"
         alt="Janet Siddiqui small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Janet Siddiqui, candidate for Howard County Council, District 4. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Another example of a candidate, or more precisely, the candidate’s family, having a favorite color: orange was also prominently featured in <a href="/2014/06/19/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-13/">Nayab Siddiqui’s 2014 sign</a>, although in his case it was orange with black rather than orange with blue (as here).</p>
<p>This sign uses a particularly bright orange that really stands out. The white outlines around the letters in ”Siddiqui” also helps readability, as can be easily seen if you compare them to the letters in “County Council”. The text of ”Janet” and “Siddiqui” is in a good bold serif typeface that makes an impact without being too chunky. Unfortunately the text for “County Council” doesn’t quite go with it; I’m not sure if it’s the typeface, the lack of outlining, or the use of blue for the text color. (Would white have been better?)</p>
<p>Finally, why include the “M.D.” under Siddiqui? I can see this for a Board of Education race, but would anyone voting for a County Council candidate really care that Janet Siddiqui is a physician?</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-shahan-rizvi.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-shahan-rizvi-embed.jpg"
         alt="Shahan Rizvi small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Shahan Rizvi, candidate for Howard County Democratic Committee. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is the first of several examples of a phenomenon I don’t recall seeing in 2014: campaign signs for Central Committee candidates. (Or, to be more specific, male Democratic Central Committee candidates; I haven’t seen any signs for female Democratic Central Committee candidates, nor for Republican Central Committee candidates.)  I find it interesting that Shahan Rizvi would undertake the expense of making campaign signs, especially given that he’s a member of the “HoCo Forward” slate, and thus would presumably benefit from any promotion of that slate.</p>
<p>As for the sign itself, the colors are attractive, and the main thing is that the name “Rizvi” is both prominent and legible. However the typeface for “Shahan” seems a bit thin in comparison, as does the typeface used for the website name. In fact, the website name isn’t really all that readable. I wonder if it would have worked better in lower case.</p>
<p>Finally, the little cartoon is cute and lends an air of whimsy to the sign, but including two of them almost makes me think Rizvi is running as a pair of twins.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-reid-novotny.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-reid-novotny-embed.jpg"
         alt="Reid Novotny small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Reid Novotny, Republican candidate for Maryland Senate, District 9. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is a solid sign&mdash;which is good, since Reid Novotny seems intent on plastering my section of Route 40 with these. The overall blue and white scheme has good contrast, and the spot of red in the upper left livens up the design and prevents it from being too monotone.</p>
<p>The typefaces are legible, and I like the strategy of placing “Reid” in the space opened up by the capital “N”. It’s mirrored by the design element with the star, which not only helps separate “Novotny” from “State Senate” but also fills the space opened up by the descender in the letter “y.”</p>
<p>Finally, since the design is pretty clean and uncluttered I don’t mind the addition of a slogan at the top. The slogan also helps contrast&mdash;in a relatively subtle way&mdash;Novotny’s candidacy from that of his primary opponent, incumbent Gail Bates.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-scott-berkowitz.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-scott-berkowitz-embed.jpg"
         alt="Scott Berkowitz small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Scott Berkowitz, candidate for Howard County Democratic Central Committee. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Here’s another example of a campaign sign for the Democratic Central Committee race&mdash;and for another member of the HoCo Forward slate. It’s an attractive sign, with good legibility for the last name and a nice shade of blue.</p>
<p>But again I have to ask: Is it really necessary to include the fact that you’re a doctor, especially for a Central Committee race? I wouldn’t be so down on this except that I think the “MD” in small letters throws off the rest of the design.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-deb-jung.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-deb-jung-embed.jpg"
         alt="Deb Jung small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Deb Jung, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 4. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>There are a lot of things to like about this sign, including the typeface used for the names, so I was wondering why I found it a bit offputting. Then I figured it out: there’s no white border around the sign. Maybe it’s just me, but I find including a border helps frame the sign and highlight its content.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-larry-pretlow.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-larry-pretlow-embed.jpg"
         alt="Larry Pretlow small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Larry Pretlow, Democratic candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 13. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I have to admit, my first thought upon seeing this sign was, “Who is Larry?” Then I saw the slogan “Break the Slate!” and thought, “Oh, maybe this has to do with the Central Committee election and the HoCo Forward slate.” But I couldn’t remember seeing any Larrys on the ballot when I voted last Sunday. Then I looked more closely and saw “for Delegate” and the “13” on the donkey’s shirt, and finally figured it out: he’s running against the candidates of “Team 13.”</p>
<p>This is not really Larry Pretlow’s fault: I completely missed the “for Delegate” part in the lower part of the sign, which is in a larger font size than the “Break the Slate”. But it does illustrate the potential for confusion when voters see signs that don’t include all the relevant information about a candidate. (Before anyone comments, I’m aware that Krish Vignarajah also has signs that read simply “Krish for Maryland”. But as a gubernatorial candidate she has a higher media profile and thus presumably better name recognition.)</p>
<p>Sorry about the detour, now back to the sign itself: First, it’s a somewhat unusual shape relative to other signs. Other than that it’s a perfectly good looking sign. Blue or black text on a white background makes for high contrast, and the typeface is readable. I’m not a big fan of cartoons on signs, but this one is perfectly fine and doesn’t overshadow the rest of the sign.</p>
<p>I do wonder though about including “June 26th” on the sign. It makes the sign more crowded and I’m not sure it adds anything: if you know who “Larry” is, wouldn’t you also know when to vote?</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-vicky-cutroneo.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-vicky-cutroneo-embed.jpg"
         alt="Vicky Cutroneo small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Vicky Cutroneo, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Things to like about this sign: It has good legibility and impact for the candidate’s name, and I like the contract between the sans serif typeface used for the name and the slab serif typeface used for “Board of Education”. I like the two colors and the division of the sign’s area between them. I like including the endorsement logos within the sign itself, as opposed to slapping on stickers after the fact.</p>
<p>Things I don’t like: The two thin horizontal lines on either side of “Vicky” I think are necessary, but I’m not persuaded that it was necessary to include a similar thin line below “Cutroneo,” especially since there’s already a white area dividing that section of the sign from the lower part. I tried editing out the bottom line in an image editor and I think the sign looks better and (dare I say) more impactful without it.</p>
<p>Finally, it bothers me that the “Teacher Recommended” and “Ethics Star” logos aren’t quite at the same height. (Yes, I’m picky.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-raj-kathuria.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-raj-kathuria-embed.jpg"
         alt="Raj Kathuria small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Raj Kathuria, Republican candidate for Howard County Council, District 1. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign seems overly dark to me, with all white text against colored backgrounds. It also doesn’t help that the red is a relatively dark red. (Raj Kathuria may want to look to fellow Republican Warren Miller, whose signs have really good shades of red and blue.)  Otherwise the sign has good legibility for the candidate’s name, but seems overly crowded with the secondary text at the top and bottom.</p>
<p>Finally, I could take or leave the little star-in-circle design elements used in dotting the “j” and “i”. I used my trusty image editor to change those elements to plain white circles; I think the sign looks quite fine without the stars.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jim-walsh.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jim-walsh-embed.jpg"
         alt="Jim Walsh small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jim Walsh, Republican candidate for Howard County Council, District 5. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is far from being a bad sign, but I feel compelled to nitpick it a bit: The typeface for “Walsh” is bold, perhaps too bold: I feel the letters run together a bit too much, in a way that threatens to impair readability.</p>
<p>Also, I’m curious about the design elements in the lower left. The element that looks like two stalks of wheat is defensible enough: assuming that it <em>is</em> supposed to represent stalks of wheat, it’s a symbol of Howard County (especially the farms of Council District 5) and echoes similar elements on past signs for Courtney Watson and Bob Flanagan (among others). But what’s a set of scales doing on this sign? Walsh is running for County Council, not for Judge of the Orphans’ Court.</p>
<p>That’s it for today’s crop of signs. Keep an eye out on Twitter and Facebook for the next crop. <del>In the meantime, vote for the best sign of those discussed in this article. If I get enough votes I’ll have a final runoff to determine the winner among all signs; otherwise you’ll just have to accept my choice.</del></p>
<p>UPDATE: Voting is closed. See <a href="/2018/06/26/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-7/">part 7</a> for all the signs that advanced to the final round.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2018 campaign signs, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/19/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 19 Jun 2018 23:20:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2018/06/19/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-1/</guid>
      <description>I take a look at 2018 campaign signs in Howard County.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-1.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-signs-2018-part-1-embed.jpg"
         alt="2018 campaign signs at the Miller Branch library"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Campaign signs and canvassers at the Miller Branch of the Howard County Library System during early voting. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I take a look at 2018 campaign signs in Howard County. This first post features signs from Jon Weinstein, Dan Medinger, Mavourene Robinson, Greg Jennings, Leslie Smith Turner, Bob Glascock, Jen Mallo, Terry McAndrews, and Kim Oldham.</em></p>
<p>One of my interests is graphic design&mdash;not that I have any talent for it myself&mdash;and one of the ways I’ve manifested that interest is in critiquing political campaign signs. I did a delayed retrospective on <a href="/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/">2010 campaign signs</a>, and then later did a more full discussion of as many <a href="/2014/06/25/campaign-signs-2014-final-results/">2014 campaign signs</a> as I could track down.</p>
<p>I had thought I’d take a break this year, especially since I’m doing a <a href="/2018/03/20/seven-answers-introduction/">series of political posts</a> that are much more time-intensive. However in going this weekend to vote at the Miller Branch library, the array of signs was so impressive that I couldn’t stop myself from taking pictures of all of them. And what’s the use of taking pictures if I don’t do anything with them?</p>
<p>So without first ado here’s the first post in a series that I hope I can complete by the time (primary) election day rolls around.  Rather than organizing the signs by race I’m posting them in a random order, just to mix things up.</p>
<p>I’ve previously outlined the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/">criteria</a> I use in judging signs, but I’ll briefly summarize them here once more:</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Legibility</em>, especially at a distance from a moving car.</li>
<li>Including the most important <em>information</em>: the candidate’s name and the office sought.</li>
<li>Attractive <em>colors</em> that don’t clash or impede legibility.</li>
<li>Clean, professional <em>typography</em> that adds an extra “oomph” to the sign’s visual appearance.</li>
<li>Effective use of <em>other design elements</em> to enhance the impact of the sign, not detract from it.</li>
</ul>
<p>I will say that local candidates have upped their game this year in the sign department: I’ve seen fewer things I consider to be basic mistakes, and a higher percentage of pretty good-looking signs.</p>
<p>And with that, let’s look at some signs!</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jon-weinstein.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jon-weinstein-embed.jpg"
         alt="Jon Weinstein small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jon Weinstein, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 1. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Based on his <a href="/2014/06/23/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-council-district-1/">2014 campaign signs</a> there are three things I’ve noticed about Jon Weinstein: He likes blue, white, and yellow, he likes little stars, and he likes to promote his web site.</p>
<p>He’s continuing those themes in 2018, as you can see above, though with a twist: where the 2014 signs used white and yellow text on a blue background, the 2018 signs use yellow and blue on a white background.</p>
<p>The main knock I have against the 2018 sign is that it looks fairly crowded and busy with all the design elements and the website name. The yellow horizontal lines and the line of blue stars help to separate the textual elements, but they also make the sign very dense. There’s also not much variation in the typography to lighten the density: same typeface throughout and mostly all upper case except for the website name.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-dan-medinger.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-dan-medinger-embed.jpg"
         alt="Dan Medinger small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Dan Medinger, Democratic candidate for Maryland House of Delegates, District 9B. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Like Jon Weinstein, Dan Medinger has his favorite colors, in this case green and white, the same as those used on his <a href="http://frankhecker.net/2014/06/20/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-district-9/">2014 sign</a>. I wrote of that sign that it was “competent and unexceptionable,” and I think that’s true of this sign as well. There’s really not a whole lot more I can say about it.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-mavourene-robinson.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-mavourene-robinson-embed.jpg"
         alt="Mavourene Robinson small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Mavourene Robinson, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>One interesting aspect of campaign signs is that a sign can be perfectly effective in promoting the candidate while not being all that elegant from a design standpoint. This sign for Mavourene Robinson is a good example of that: The yellow on blue and blue on yellow stands out well and has good contrast for readability; in fact, the “Robinson” almost bores its way into your brain.</p>
<p>On the down side, I’m not that fond of the blue and yellow color combination, and design-wise there’s nothing particular interesting about the sign: just a basic horizontal yellow/blue/yellow division of the background, and a simple mixing up of the typefaces for variety: mixed upper and lower case sans serif in the slogan, mixed upper and lower case italic serif in “Mavourene,” all upper case san serif in “Robinson,” and then back to mixed upper and lower case sans serif for “Board of Education.”</p>
<p>The bottom line: while this sign won’t win any design awards, it gets the job done.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-greg-jennings.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-greg-jennings-embed.jpg"
         alt="Greg Jennings small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Greg Jennings, Democratic candidate for Howard County Council, District 3. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Here’s an example of the opposite phenomenon to what I just discussed: a sign that is quite elegant from a design perspective, but has I think one significant problem as a campaign sign: The “Democrat for County Council” text is not much larger than the authority line at the bottom, and I suspect it will not be that readable from a distance or when driving by.</p>
<p>Otherwise this sign is a winner: The typography is quite nice, and the white on blue contrast for “Jennings” makes it stand out well, while the orange on blue text for “Greg” is a nice combination that’s pleasing to the eye. Two other little touches I really liked: the contrasting orange/italic/serif type for the word “for,” and the “wave” design element below that line. Those are the kinds of things that from a design perspective take a good sign and make it great.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-leslie-smith-turner.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-leslie-smith-turner-embed.jpg"
         alt="Leslie Smith Turner small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Leslie Smith Turner, candidate for Howard County Judge of the Orphans’s Court. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As far as I can tell this is the exact same sign Leslie Smith Turner used in the 2014 campaign, so I’ll just repeat <a href="/2014/06/14/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-judge-of-the-orphans-court/">my previous comments</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This sign does a nice job of highlighting the candidate’s last name and the position being sought; it also highlights the fact that she’s an incumbent, which many voters might not know given that this is a relatively obscure courthouse race. I’m less enthusiastic about the burgundy color used for the text, and I’m not a big fan of the script used for “Re-Elect Judge.”</p>
</blockquote>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-bob-glascock.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-bob-glascock-embed.jpg"
         alt="Bob Glascock small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Bob Glascock, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This is a good but not great sign, in my opinion: The candidate’s last name is quite readable, but his first name looks too small compared to the last name and (especially) the “Vote” design element. I think it might have looked better just omitting the first name and making the “Vote” element slightly larger. I’m also not overly fond of the typography: I think having three pieces of text in a serif typeface and italics is a tad monotonous.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jen-mallo.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-jen-mallo-embed.jpg"
         alt="Jen Mallo small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jen Mallo, candidate for Howard County Board of Education. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The main problem I have with this sign is that “HCPSS Board of Ed” seems both awkwardly worded and a bit small and hard to read. The word “Board” in particular looks like the letter spacing is a bit too wide, with the “B” and “A” needing to be a bit closer to the “O.”</p>
<p>Otherwise the sign has no major problems. I do find the choice of red, white, and blue a bit odd though for a Board of Education race, as that color scheme is mostly used for partisan races, and in particular is a favorite of Republican candidates. <del>Is this the design equivalent of a dog whistle? (I have no idea what Jen Mallo’s party affiliation is.)</del> (UPDATE: Jen Mallo emailed me to say that the color choice was made by the graphic designer and that no dog whistle was intended.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-terry-mcandrews.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-terry-mcandrews-embed.jpg"
         alt="Terry McAndrews small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Terry McAndrews, Democratic candidate for Howard County Register of Wills. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This sign, like some others past and present, tries to enliven the design by doing more interesting things with the sign background. That goal is accomplished here, with the only downside being that the actual sign part of the sign (that is, the part with the candidate’s name and office sought) seems like it’s just a smaller (and thus less visually prominent) sign within a sign.</p>
<p>Also, using mixed upper and lower case serif text is an unusual choice for the candidate’s name, most signs use all upper case sans serif for that. That choice may have been made because “McAndrews” is in CamelCase (as the programmers say) and doesn’t seem to read as well in all caps as “MCANDREWS.”</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/campaign-2018-kim-oldham.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/campaign-2018-kim-oldham-embed.jpg"
         alt="Kim Oldham small campaign sign, 2018 elections"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Kim Oldham, Republican candidate for Howard County State’s Attorney. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Every election year there are one or two signs that stand out from the pack and make me stop and do a double-take. Kim Oldham’s sign is one of those this year. (There seems to be something about the State’s Attorney races that brings out good sign design; <a href="/2014/06/08/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-states-attorney/">Dario Brocollino’s sign</a> was a standout in 2014.)  The bold white type on a yellow background really pops out, and the design element at the top based on the Maryland flag is done quite well. The red text reading “State’s Attorney” is just a tad small for maximum readability, but I think it’s balanced nicely with the larger text of the name.</p>
<p>One interesting design decision was to place the first name “Kim” at the left rather than centering it above “Oldham”. I actually tried my hand at changing the design in an image editor, and found it’s a tough call as to whether left justification or centering looks better. What swayed me toward left justification is that there’s a slight asymmetry in the Maryland flag design element at the top, caused by keeping the yellow and black bars of equal width. Putting “Kim” to the left seems to balance off the asymmetry a bit.</p>
<p>That’s it for today’s group of signs. More critiques should be coming your way soon in part 2. <del>In the meantime I’m trying something new by giving you the opportunity to vote on your favorite signs, starting with this first group: just click on the link to the part 1 SurveyMonkey survey and then pick which of the signs above you like best. It’s completely anonymous.</del></p>
<p>UPDATE: Voting is closed. See <a href="/2018/06/26/howard-county-2018-campaign-signs-part-7/">part 7</a> for all the signs that advanced to the final round.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Now that the Chrysalis has been created</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/06/10/now-that-the-chrysalis-has-been-created/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 10 Jun 2017 13:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/06/10/now-that-the-chrysalis-has-been-created/</guid>
      <description>I have some final thoughts after completing my series on the Chrysalis and the background to its creation.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/view-from-chrysalis-stage.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/view-from-chrysalis-stage-embed.png"
         alt="Looking up at the trees of Symphony Woods from the Chrysalis alpha stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) At the top of the hill is the location for the planned Butterfly guest services building. Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Looking up at the trees of Symphony Woods from the Chrysalis alpha stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  At the top of the hill is the location for the planned Butterfly guest services building. Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I have some final thoughts after completing my series on the Chrysalis and the background to its creation.</em></p>
<p>My <a href="/2017/06/03/creating-the-chrysalis-timeline/">previous post</a> marked the end of my series “<a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">Creating the Chrysalis</a>.” After twelve articles and a few hundred hours of writing I’m ready to take a break from writing about the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, although I’ll continue to support the work of the Inner Arbor Trust through my volunteer efforts (as at the recent Wine in the Woods event) and my donations.</p>
<p>However before I leave these topics (at least for now) I thought I’d take the opportunity to sum up my thoughts and opinions on the things I’ve been writing about. So without further ado here are some things I found noteworthy:</p>
<h2 id="the-neglect-of-symphony-woods">The neglect of Symphony Woods</h2>
<p>For a tract of land that’s been the subject of so much attention and professed adoration these past few years, it’s really amazing to me how little a role Symphony Woods played in the life of Columbia for most of its history. Other than people crossing the property to get to Merriweather Post Pavilion, very little happened in Symphony Woods in the first 25 years of Columbia&mdash;even things associated with Symphony Woods in people’s minds, like the petting zoo and the Maryland Renaissance Festival, were mostly if not entirely located on the adjacent Rouse Company property and not in Symphony Woods proper.</p>
<p>1993 marked the first year in which more than token attention was paid
to Symphony Woods, with the beginning of Wine in the Woods and attempts by Cy Paumier and others at LDR International to persuade the Columbia Association to develop Symphony Woods as a park. But again, nothing significant happened for another ten years, as proposals for a new park fell on deaf ears.</p>
<p>By 2003 Symphony Woods was completely absent from the Columbia Association’s list of (19!) strategic priorities (the outcome of an intensive two-year planning effort), and the LDR International proposal was so forgotten that Ken Ulman and Joshua Feldmark apparently stumbled onto it later that year like archaeologists discovering a long-lost civilization.</p>
<h2 id="the-lasting-influence-of-ggp">The lasting influence of GGP</h2>
<p>This atmosphere of general disinterest in Symphony Woods was lifted only when a few years later General Growth Properties proposed its own plans for downtown Columbia, including building a road and various civic structures on the CA-owned Symphony Woods property. The resulting reactions from CA and others, along with the concurrent controversy over the proposal for a 23-story luxury condominium building near the lakefront (now the site of <a href="http://www.littlepatuxentsquare.com">Little Patuxent Square</a>), energized activists of all stripes to weigh in on the future of downtown Columbia in general and Symphony Woods in particular.</p>
<p>Whatever one’s opinions on the actual details, I think it’s clear that GGP’s proposals were the first attempts at serious planning for Columbia since the earliest days of the planned community, including reviving Jim Rouse’s practice of consulting outside experts in multiple disciplines. Many of the ideas for downtown Columbia we now take for granted first originated with GGP or in the parallel (and symbiotic?) Howard County planning effort.</p>
<p>This includes in particular the concept of an overall neighborhood encompassing Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion, and the idea of that neighborhood (which GGP referred to simply as “Merriweather”) as “a new kind of cultural park where the landscape becomes a setting for arts, cultural and civic uses.”  To my knowledge this language first appeared in GGP’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090218225300/http://columbiatowncenter.info:80/pdf/manyvoices/2_special_place.pdf">proposed General Plan Amendment</a> from 2008 (see page 12) before being written into law as part of the <a href="https://archive.org/details/downtown_columbia_plan">Downtown Columbia Plan</a> in 2010 (see page 13).</p>
<p>Not all of GGP’s ideas were so felicitous. One bad idea that refused to die was trying to establish some sort of linear or otherwise formally geometric connection between The Mall in Columbia and Merriweather Post Pavilion. Such a scheme was previously hinted at in the north-south “Corporate Boulevard” envisioned in the county’s 2006 <a href="https://ia801305.us.archive.org/13/items/CDMP1Intro/CDMP-2-VisionPlan.pdf">draft master plan for downtown Columbia</a> (see for example page 2.2) and in the “major promenade-style walkway” from the Mall to Symphony Woods mentioned in the 2007 <em><a href="https://archive.org/details/DCCV2007">Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision</a></em> (page 23).</p>
<p>However its fullest expression was in <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090219024548/http://columbiatowncenter.info:80/pdf/manyvoices/5_growth.pdf">GGP’s 2008 plan</a>, which included a linear “Merriweather Connection to Symphony Overlook,” complete with associated buildings, from Little Patuxent Parkway all the way to Merriweather Post Pavilion (see the illustration on page 53).</p>
<p>The idea of putting buildings and roads in Symphony Woods between The Mall in Columbia and Merriweather Post Pavilion was soundly rejected, but the allure of a north-south axis between the two lived on, most notably in the Symphony Woods Park plan created by Cy Paumier and his associates&mdash;even if it meant cutting a significant number of trees to fit in a formal pathway geometry.</p>
<p>The idea of a formal mall-pavilion axis didn’t receive significant pushback until the Design Advisory Panel and Planning Board reviewed the Symphony Woods Park proposal, and wasn’t killed off entirely until the creation of the Inner Arbor plan, with its philosophy of meandering pathways and tree preservation.</p>
<h2 id="why-classical-music-left-merriweather-post-pavilion">Why classical music left Merriweather Post Pavilion</h2>
<p>I had originally planned for the timeline post to focus solely on Symphony Woods, the Inner Arbor plan, and the construction of the Chrysalis. However I soon decided that Merriweather Post Pavilion was integral to the overall history (just as it’s integral to the overall vision for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods), and so it was worth doing a parallel set of items discussing what was going on with the pavilion.</p>
<p>The conventional narrative about Merriweather Post Pavilion goes something like this: It was created as a home for the National Symphony Orchestra, the orchestra subsequently went bankrupt, and then the pavilion was permanently taken over by the likes of Jimi Hendrix, Led Zeppelin, the Who, the Grateful Dead, and Janis Joplin. This conventional narrative is not entirely wrong, but it omits some interesting wrinkles.</p>
<p>First, as best as I can determine the National Symphony Orchestra never went bankrupt. It did have financial difficulties and labor issues (including a musicians strike), and those problems did result in the NSO’s 1970 summer season almost being cancelled. However the NSO did survive (in fact, it still exists) and it continued to play concerts at Merriweather Post Pavilion, at least for a while.</p>
<p>I suspect that what really caused the National Symphony Orchestra to abandon Merriweather Post Pavilion was the opening (in 1971) of Filene Center at Wolf Trap Farm in northern Virginia (now Wolf Trap National Park for the Performing Arts). Filene Center was a more elaborate facility closer to Washington DC, and was lavishly subsidized both by US taxpayers and by its namesake, Catherine Filene Shouse. (Compare Shouse to fellow heiress Marjorie Merriweather Post, who famously never gave a dime to support Merriweather Post Pavilion after Rouse named it for her.)</p>
<p>However the National Symphony Orchestra’s decamping to northern Virginia did not mark either the end of classical music at Merriweather Post Pavilion or its final takeover by rock acts. Instead, by means of some hefty subsidies the Rouse Company was able to entice the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra to begin playing summer concerts at the pavilion, starting in 1974. The BSO went on to play at Merriweather Post Pavilion for several years.</p>
<p>Like the National Symphony Orchestra, the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra was also lured away from Merriweather Post Pavilion, this time by the promise of a new performance center in Oregon Ridge Park north of Baltimore (off I-83 near Hunt Valley) and the efforts of Baltimore County Executive Donald Hutchinson and BSO patron Joseph Meyerhoff. Despite at least two attempts that promise never materialized. Nevertheless the BSO left Merriweather Post Pavilion for good after the 1981 summer season.</p>
<p>(Howard County chauvinism compels me to add that the <a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_wcMDCwvOkwY/S-a86nwn-dI/AAAAAAAAAbs/bzijWuYIiQM/s1600/Oregon+Ridge_credit+Richard+Lippenholz.JPG">BSO’s performance space in Oregon Ridge Park</a> is no great shakes; it looks like nothing more than an upgraded version of the <a href="http://www.trbimg.com/img-58c09e29/turbine/ph-mg-ho-guide-to-howard-county-2017-arts-20170308">amphitheater at Centennial Park</a>.)</p>
<p>In the meantime, during the BSO years the Rouse Company also tried to keep rock acts away from Merriweather Post Pavilion, as the pavilion played host to a parade of middlebrow pop stars like Engelbert Humperdinck and Perry Como. Rock acts eventually came back, but then in 1995 northern Virginia gave birth to another Merriweather Post Pavilion competitor, Nissan Pavilion (later, and unfortunately, renamed Jiffy Lube Live).</p>
<p>In the end the story of Merriweather Post Pavilion is not just that of the decline of classical music and the rise of rock, though that’s certainly a factor. I think it’s also a function of Howard County’s occupying a somewhat-awkward position between Washington and Baltimore, and not being the beneficiary of patronage from the cultural and political power brokers of either.</p>
<p>Thus Merriweather Post Pavilion’s continued survival has relied, and I think will continue to rely, primarily on the willingness of Howard County residents to support the pavilion both directly and indirectly. This includes the pavilion renovations (partly funded by the county), the work of the nonprofit Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission (also partly county-funded), and of course the county’s contributions toward realizing the larger vision of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<h2 id="beyond-jim-rouse-and-the-pioneers">Beyond Jim Rouse and the “pioneers”</h2>
<p>With this year marking the 50th birthday of Columbia we’ll hear a lot about Jim Rouse and his role in creating Columbia, and likely also a lot about the “pioneers,” those individuals and families who were the first residents of the newly-created community. Given that, I think it’s appropriate to spare a thought for two other groups of people who won‘t be highlighted quite as much in these celebrations.</p>
<p>The first is the Howard County commissioners who gave Rouse the green light to proceed with the development of Columbia, along with the county government personnel who cooperated with the Rouse Company in getting it planned and built. The commissioners in particular paid a heavy price for their role in creating Columbia, as the rapid influx of new residents tilted the voter population heavily toward Democratic-voting Columbia residents and led to a takeover of the county’s political establishment that sidelined the previous generation of politicians. (For more on this process see my book <em><a href="/dividing-howard">Dividing Howard: A History of County Council Redistricting in Howard County, Maryland</a></em>.)</p>
<p>The second (and for our present purposes more important) group is the new generation of politicians, civic leaders, and activists who came to prominence in the first decade of the 21st century. In particular 2006 marked the election of Ken Ulman as Howard County executive, as well as the election of a completely new set of County Council members: Calvin Ball, Greg Fox, Mary Kay Sigaty, Jen Terrasa, and Courtney Watson.</p>
<p>The “class of 2006” remained intact and at the helm of Howard County government for the next eight years, during which the foundations for the future of downtown Columbia were laid, including the creation of the 2010 Downtown Columbia General Plan, detailed planning for the Crescent property inherited by the Howard Hughes Corporation from the Rouse Company and GGP, the agreement for and funding of renovation of Merriweather Post Pavilion, the pavilion’s transfer to the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission, and (last but not least from our point of view) the funding of the Inner Arbor Trust’s work on the Chrysalis after the Columbia Association board’s approval of the Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<p>That work has continued under the new administration of Allan Kittleman, with four out of the five “class of 2006” council members continuing to serve through 2018. (Courtney Watson resigned from the council to run unsuccessfully for County Executive against Kittleman.)  Recent events have included the Tax Increment Financing plan for the Crescent development (or as Howard Hughes has taken to calling it, the Merriweather District), more funding for the Chrysalis, and (beyond downtown) plans for the village centers.</p>
<p>Also worthy of note are people who are not elected officials (at least, not yet) but who fill key leadership roles within Howard County and help knit together the civic fabric of the county. There are too many of these people to list them all, and I don’t want to slight anyone by not mentioning them, so I’ll simply say that you can find this next generation serving on government boards and commissions, serving as executive directors and board members of nonprofit organizations, and otherwise advocating for a positive future for Columbia and Howard County. You can also find some of their activities and achievements highlighted in my previous timeline post.</p>
<p>I hope that when Columbia celebrates its 100th birthday this second generation of Columbia and Howard County leaders will be given due recognition for their roles in creating the new Columbia of the 21st century.</p>
<h2 id="it-pays-to-bring-in-the-best">It pays to bring in the best</h2>
<p>At the dedication of the Chrysalis Michael McCall called up to the podium three people whose input concerning technical requirements influenced the final form of the Chrysalis: Brad Canfield of I.M.A. (who provided an example “technical rider” from the EDM artist Skrillex), Toby Orenstein of the Columbia Center for Theatrical Arts (who suggested the need for a smaller secondary stage), and Coleen West of the Howard County Arts Council (who was concerned that the stage floor to be springy enough for dance performances).</p>
<p>I’ve previously described the innovations inherent in the Chrysalis’s form as well as the demanding nature of the technical requirements put on it as a proposed venue for popular musical acts and theater and dance performances&mdash;requirements due in large part to the suggestions of Canfield, Orenstein, and West. As many an IT shop and defense contractor has learned to its regret, combining visionary technology with stringent and often evolving requirements can be a recipe for disaster.</p>
<p>Fortunately, that didn’t happen with the Chrysalis. (If it had I would have written a very different series, or perhaps no series at all.)  In my opinion the reason why it didn’t happen is the overall high quality of the design, engineering, fabrication, and construction team put together by the Inner Arbor Trust: when potential problems arose there were people available who knew what they were doing and were able to work with others on the team to produce a successful outcome.</p>
<p>Bringing in the best possible people and organizations to get something done isn’t exactly a new thing in Howard County. The Rouse Company’s 1964 presentation on Columbia lists over sixty consultants and advisors that Jim Rouse sought out for help in planning the new city&mdash;not just from Washington and Baltimore but from all over the US.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that it pays to go for the best, both in the quality of the final product and in the avoidance of obstacles to producing it. That’s a lesson to keep in mind as we look to the future phases of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. We’re fortunate to have a beautiful design for the next major park feature, the Butterfly guest services building, created by the upcoming Brooklyn-based firm <a href="http://narchitects.com/">nARCHITECTS</a> (recently named #9 for design in the <a href="http://www.architectmagazine.com/practice/architect-50/the-top-50-firms-in-business-sustainability-and-design_o">Architect Magazine 2016 Top 50 list</a>). Hopefully the Inner Arbor Trust will be able to attract the funding necessary to get that design realized as it was originally envisioned.</p>
<h2 id="local-news-and-the-risk-of-losing-our-history">Local news and the risk of losing our history</h2>
<p>The celebration of Columbia’s 50th birthday will also feature artifacts and documents collected by the <a href="https://www.columbiaassociation.org/facilities/columbia-archives/">Columbia Archives</a>. The Archives has done a great job of preserving the early history of Columbia, and some of the fruits of that effort are available online, including its own <a href="https://www.columbiaassociation.org/facilities/columbia-archives/digital-resources/creating-columbia/">timeline</a>.</p>
<p>However the period of most interest to me is not the first decade or so of Columbia but rather the last decade or so, during which the future form of downtown Columbia was debated and plans for a park in Symphony Woods finally moved forward. For that period I relied almost totally on online sources both free and paid, and came to two conclusions:</p>
<p>The first is a cliché by now: that there is no substitute for professional news reporting done at the local level. Time after time I found myself consulting local newspapers, most notably the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, in an effort to confirm what happened when and who said what about it.</p>
<p>Gone forever are the days when Howard County could support a multiple-person staff of <em>Sun</em> reporters, along with independent reporting from the <em>Columbia Flier</em> and <em>Howard County Times</em>. Now we’re lucky to have one person assigned to the Howard County beat, and those people typically move on to other things within a year or two. But I’m still grateful for what we have.</p>
<p>However, when it comes to researching the past (as opposed to following current affairs) our local papers do have some major disadvantages, for example, the lack of a usable online archive for older issues of the <em>Columbia Flier</em> and <em>Howard County Times</em>. And once you get beyond newspapers to other sources of online information the picture gets even worse.</p>
<p>For example, in some of my previous posts I linked to various documents on the <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/">Howard County government web site</a>. Many of those links no longer work, victims of an apparent reorganization of the county’s internal document management system. Similarly, you can no longer find online records of many past Columbia Association board meetings, since <a href="https://www.columbiaassociation.org/about-us/board-of-directors/#meetings">CA’s board page</a> now includes only meetings since January 2014. Even the Inner Arbor Trust’s extensive collection of construction photos and related materials is no longer visible due to a revamp of the <a href="http://inartrust.org">Trust’s web site</a> (although old links still work).</p>
<p>The list goes on: Looking for the columbiatowncenter.info web site that GGP used to promote its downtown plans? Gone, and preserved elsewhere only in fragments. How about online copies of presentations and other documents used in public meetings on proposed developments (e.g., pre-submission meetings, Design Advisory Panel meetings, and Planning Board meetings). Mostly never posted online, and now either sitting on a private hard drive somewhere or sent to the recycle bin. What about video recordings of those public presentations? Are you kidding me? Nobody bothered to film them.</p>
<p>The above may sound like the grumblings of a frustrated amateur historian, but I think it reflects a larger truth: For people living in and (especially) growing up in the 21th century, if something isn’t online and easily findable via search engines then it might as well not exist. How are our descendants going to celebrate the second fifty years of Columbia in 2067 if large chunks of the history of those years are lost forever, tossed in the digital dustbin?</p>
<p>I think this is so important a topic that I hope to post more on it later.</p>
<h2 id="questions-and-answers">Questions and answers</h2>
<p>Now for some semi-random questions and answers, in which I get to interview myself:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Q: Why did you write this series?</p>
<p>A: Because I wanted to promote the work of the Inner Arbor Trust in
creating Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, and because I thought
it would be an interesting thing to research and write about. (And
indeed it was.)</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Q: How much time did you spend writing and researching the series?</p>
<p>A: I have no idea. Probably a few hundred hours all told, given that
each article took at least 10-20 hours from start to finish, and a
few took significantly longer.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Q: Why didn’t you include links to the newpaper stories in your timeline post? After all, many of them can be read online at no charge.</p>
<p>A: Because I ran out of time and energy. There are almost four
hundred references in the timeline, and unfortunately many if not
most of the newspaper stories either are not online or if online
cannot be found by searching for the title of the story as it
appeared in print.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Q: Do you plan to turn this series into a book?</p>
<p>A: No. I’d be very surprised if the core readership of my blog
exceeds one hundred people, and based on past experience the
audience for any book would be an order of magnitude less than
that. Reshaping the series into a book just isn’t worth the time
that would be needed to do a good job of it.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Q: Is there anything you wish you’d included in the series but didn’t?</p>
<p>A: Yes. It wasn’t until a few weeks ago that I heard the story (from
Kevin Day of Living Design Lab) of why the Chrysalis shingles have
four different colors (and not, for example, three colors or five):
it’s because there were four large coils of sheet aluminum used in
fabricating the shingles, with each coil assigned a different color.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Q: What’s your opinion on the future of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods?</p>
<p>A: I think the Inner Arbor Trust is in good hands, and I’m content
to simply sit back and let Nina Basu and the Trust’s board decide
how best to pursue funding and constructing the remaining phases of
the park.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Q: What will you write about now?</p>
<p>A: I have some ideas, but I’m not ready to talk about them yet. As
Jason Booms of the local blog <em>Spartan Considerations</em> puts it,
“stay tuned, as more will follow” (but not necessarily that soon).</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="thanks-and-acknowledgements">Thanks and acknowledgements</h2>
<p>To conclude this post I want to thank the many people without whom creating this series would have been impossible, or at least much more difficult than it was:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>The reporters of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> and the <em>Columbia Flier</em>, especially those who covered downtown Columbia developments (including those related to Symphony Woods) in the GGP and Howard Hughes eras, including (in chronological order) Laura Cadiz, Larry Carson, Janene Holzberg, June Arney, Lindsey McPherson, Sarah Toth, David Greisman, Luke Lavoie, Amanda Yeager, and Fatima Waseem. (Luke Lavoie’s work was especially important, accounting for over ten percent of the almost four hundred sources I cite.)</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Marc Fornes and THEVERYMANY, who graciously gave me permission to reproduce a broad collection of renderings and photographs of both the Chrysalis and other THEVERYMANY projects, along with Zahner, Arup, and Living Design Lab, who also contributed various illustrations.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Columbia Archives and Columbia Association staff, for providing online access to key historical documents.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>And, finally, Michael McCall, whose thorough documentation of the work of the Inner Arbor Trust made this project tractable, and whose comments and suggestions helped make the series as comprehensive and accurate as possible&mdash;and, of course, whose work in creating and implementing the Inner Arbor plan meant that there was something for me to write about in the first place.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>And with that I’m signing off for now . . .</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-hecker-engraving.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-hecker-engraving-embed.png"
         alt="After all the time I spent working on the series, I couldn’t resist leaving my own mark on the Chrysalis stage. (So can you.)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>After all the time I spent working on the series, I couldn’t resist leaving my own mark on the Chrysalis stage. (<a href="http://inartrust.org/donate/">So can you</a>.)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Timeline</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/06/03/creating-the-chrysalis-timeline/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 03 Jun 2017 13:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/06/03/creating-the-chrysalis-timeline/</guid>
      <description>A timeline of significant events in the history of the Chrysalis and its surroundings, from 1962 to the present, with references.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-dedication-mccall.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-dedication-mccall-embed.png"
         alt="Michael McCall, President and CEO of the Inner Arbor Trust, speaks at the dedication of the Chrysalis, April 22, 2017. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Michael McCall, President and CEO of the Inner Arbor Trust, speaks at the dedication of the Chrysalis, April 22, 2017. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: The “Creating the Chrysalis” series ends with a timeline of significant events in the history of the Chrysalis, Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, and the surrounding downtown Columbia area, from 1962 to the present, with references.</em></p>
<p>This article is the last in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland.  For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>Previous articles in this series discussed in detail various aspects of Symphony Woods, the Inner Arbor plan, the Chrysalis, and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.  This article provides a timeline of events concerning these and related topics, including in particular downtown Columbia development and the evolution of Merriweather Post Pavilion, from the creation of Columbia to the present.  It includes references for all events discussed in the timeline, and a final section listing additional sources of online information concerning the topics of this article.</p>
<h2 id="1962">1962</h2>
<p>Jim Rouse begins the process of creating Columbia.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>April: Jim Rouse begins investigating acquiring land in Howard County, Maryland.</p>
<p class="small">Gunts, Edward.  “50 years ago, a city was started behind scenes.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 19 Feb. 2012, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October 15: Jim Rouse proposes to Connecticut General Life Insurance a venture to “plan and develop . . . a New City of approximately 100,000 people” between Baltimore and Washington.</p>
<p class="small">Rouse, James W.  Letter to Irving G. Bjork.  15 Oct. 1962, <a href="https://issuu.com/columbiaarchives/docs/1962-10-15-letter">issuu.com/columbiaarchives/docs/1962-10-15-letter</a>.  Accessed 6 May 2017.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1963">1963</h2>
<p>Howard County learns of Rouse’s plans.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>October 29: Jim Rouse announces to Howard County officials and residents his intent to build a planned community on almost 14,000 acres of land recently acquired by Howard Research and Development, a joint venture between his company and Connecticut General Life Insurance.</p>
<p class="small">Pickett, Edward G.  “14,000 acres in Howard to be developed.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 30 Oct. 1963, p. 44.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1964">1964</h2>
<p>The idea of Symphony Woods first appears in print.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>November 11: Howard Research and Development publishes a marketing brochure for Columbia.  Among other things, the brochure promises the establishment of a park on a 40-acre tract of wooded land in Columbia Town Center.</p>
<p class="small">Community Research and Development, Inc.  <em>Columbia: A New Town for Howard County</em>.  11 Nov. 1964, p. 28, <a href="https://issuu.com/columbiaarchives/docs/columbia_a_new_town">issuu.com/columbiaarchives/docs/columbia_a_new_town</a>.  Accessed 6 May 2017.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1966">1966</h2>
<p>Construction of Columbia begins.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>June: The Rouse Company retains contractors to do clearing and grading in and around the future Village of Wilde Lake, including grading the lake bed and building access roads for construction equipment.</p>
<p class="small">“Clearing to start in Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 19 June 1966, p. 7F.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1967">1967</h2>
<p>Columbia, Merriweather Post Pavilion, and Symphony Woods are opened to the world.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>June 21: Columbia officially opens with the dedication of Wilde Lake, followed by an opening to the general public five days later.</p>
<p class="small">Lewis, Jack.  “Columbia opening slated.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 18 June 1967, p. 2F.</p>
<p class="small">“New village&mdash;familiar name.”  <em>Hartford Courant</em> [Hartford CT], 23 June 1967, p. 19.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 14: Merriweather Post Pavilion officially opens with an inaugural performance by the National Symphony Orchestra.  The pavilion is located within a 10-acre area owned by the Rouse Company, entirely surrounded by a 37-acre area designated as Symphony Woods and owned by the Columbia Association (the homeowner’s association created by Rouse for Columbia).<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p class="small">Hill, Frederic B.  “Wet throng hails Columbia, Rouse, Humphrey, and music.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 15 July 1967, p. 20B.</p>
<p class="small">Hume, Paul.  “Merriweather Post Pavilion opens to critical acclaim.”  <em>Washington Post</em>, 16 July 1967, p. D1.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Makeover for Merriweather.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 26 May 2008, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1968">1968</h2>
<p>Merriweather Post Pavilion focuses on classical music.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Merriweather Post Pavilion hosts performances by the National Symphony Orchestra and other artists, including Van Cliburn, Benny Goodman, and the New York City Ballet.</p>
<p class="small">“Season preview at the Post Pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 19 May 1968, p. 14D.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1969">1969</h2>
<p>As the National Symphony Orchestra experiences labor difficulties and financial problems, popular music begins its takeover of Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Spring&ndash;summer: Merriweather Post Pavilion begins to host rock acts, including Led Zeppelin, Blood Sweat and Tears, Richie Havens, Janis Joplin, and Iron Butterfly.</p>
<p class="small">Cowan, Richard.  “With a little help . . .”  <em>Washington Post</em>, 25 May 1969, p. B8.</p>
<p class="small">“Summer adventure in performing arts.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 18 June 1969, p. 1.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October&ndash;November: The National Symphony Orchestra endures a six-week strike by musicians.</p>
<p class="small">Ross, Nancy L.  “Musicians call halt to strike.”  <em>Washington Post</em>, Nov. 24 1969, p. A1.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1970">1970</h2>
<p>The popularity of Merriweather Post Pavilion with rock acts leads to expansion and crowd control issues.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Merriweather Post Pavilion expands its capacity by 2,000 by adding loge seating under canvas tents to the sides of the main pavilion and putting more seats in the aisles of the main pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">“New addition to Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 12 May 1970, p. B6.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 27: After uncertainty over its financial situation, the National Symphony announces that it will have a full summer season at Merriweather Post Pavilion after all.</p>
<p class="small">Kriegsman, Alan M.  “Symphony saviors.”  <em>Washington Post</em>, 27 June 1970, p. C1.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 28. Several hundred people enter Symphony Woods and break through fences to gate-crash a concert by Procol Harum at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  Concerts the next two days by The Who and others draw up to 20,000 people with no further problems.</p>
<p class="small">Hodge, Paul.  “Crowd crashes Post Pavilion.”  <em>Washington Post</em>, 29 June 1970, p. 4A.</p>
<p class="small">Ross, Nancy L.  “Rocking on.”  <em>Washington Post</em>, 1 July 1970, p. B5.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1971">1971</h2>
<p>The Rouse Company outsources management of Merriweather Post Pavilion, as Wolf Trap opens and competes with the pavilion for classical music performances.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January: The Rouse Company engages Nederlander Arts Associates to operate Merriweather Post Pavilion under a 10-year lease agreement.</p>
<p class="small">“New managers at Merriweather.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 24 Jan. 1971, p. D15.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June: The National Symphony Orchestra schedules four summer performances at Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">“National Symphony plans Post Pavilion concerts.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 20 June 1971, p. B4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July: After testing a prototype elsewhere in Columbia, Antioch College proposes to construct a 30,000 square-foot inflatable structure on Rouse Company land next to Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion to house the college’s Human Ecology Center.</p>
<p class="small">“The ‘Bubble’.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 21 July 1971, p. 40.</p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “Big air-bubble campus planned.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 2 Dec. 1971, p. C20.</p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “Antioch lays the cornerstone to pneumatic campus in Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 7 July 1972, p. A9.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 1: Filene Center at Wolf Trap Farm Park in Northern Virginia opens with a concert featuring the National Symphony Orchestra.</p>
<p class="small">Sanders, Donald.  “Park for the arts puts music in the Vienna (Va.) woods.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 27 June 1971, p. D1.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1973">1973</h2>
<p>The Rouse Company and the Columbia Association try to attract more visitors to downtown Columbia, as the bubble bursts on another downtown scheme.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Symphony Woods and the adjacent Rouse Company property next to the Columbia Mall host a 5-acre petting zoo during the summer.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “Howard zoo’s 1st born a mule.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 11 Sept. 1973, p. C13.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October-December: Amid concerns about practicality, maintenance cost, and vandalism, Antioch College tries to sell its inflatable structure next to Symphony Woods, but “Mother Nature and larcenous scavengers” prove to be its downfall, as winds collapse the structure and thieves pick over the remains.</p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “College has bubble trouble.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 26 Oct. 1973, p. A10.</p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “Scavengers plunder Antioch’s burst bubble.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 6 Dec. 1973, p. C7.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1974">1974</h2>
<p>The Rouse Company attempts to steer Merriweather Post Pavilion away from rock and back to more traditional fare.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January 29: The Baltimore Symphony Orchestra announces a series of performances at Merriweather Post Pavilion supported by funding from the Rouse Company, as Rouse executive Michael Spear notes the pavilion’s need to “change its image.”</p>
<p class="small">Galkin, Elliott W.  “Symphony season adds Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Jan. 30 1974, p. B6.</p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “Merriweather drums out rock era.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 30 Jan. 1974, p. C11.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: Nederlander Arts Associates suspends operations at Merriweather Post Pavilion for the 1974 summer season, citing restrictions on rock acts and the Rouse Company’s unwillingness to expand seating.</p>
<p class="small">“Columbia concerts reduced.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 26 Apr. 1974, p. C4.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1975">1975</h2>
<p>The Rouse Company continues its efforts to avoid having Merriweather Post Pavilion become a rock venue.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>March 19: The Rouse Company discusses its efforts to get the state of Maryland to buy Merriweather Post Pavilion.  Rouse executive Michael Spear notes that the responsibility for booking performers has left the Rouse Company “troubled by our ownership of the pavilion” ever since its creation, and that the pavilion has “lost several hundred thousand dollars since it opened.”</p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “Columbia pavilion up for sale.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 20 Mar. 1975, p. D1.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May: The Baltimore Symphony Orchestra schedules six summer concerts at Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">“Symphony slates summer concerts.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 11 May 1975, p. D18.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1977">1977</h2>
<p>Crowd control problems continue at Merriweather Post Pavilion, and a new attraction opens near Symphony Woods.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>August 14: The Columbia Association bans trespassing in Symphony Woods during performances at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  The ban is lifted less than two weeks later.</p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “Columbia revokes trespassing ban at Merriweather Post Pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 25 Aug. 1977, p. 24C.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September&ndash;October: The first annual Renaissance Festival is held next to Symphony Woods.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p class="small">“A Renaissance Festival: First Annual Renaissance Festival, Columbia, Maryland.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 16 Sept. 1977, p. 5B.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1978">1978</h2>
<p>More potential competition for Merriweather Post Pavilion appears, then recedes.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>April 8: Consultants to Baltimore County, including Frank Gehry, recommend constructing a new performance center at Oregon Ridge Park to replace Merriweather Post Pavilion as the summer home of the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra.  Advantages cited for the proposed center’s design include “better backstage facilities and wing and storage space than [Merriweather Post Pavilion].”</p>
<p class="small">Pietila, Antero.  “Build Oregon Ridge pavilion, consultants say.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 9 Apr. 1978, p. A1.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 7: By a 59%&ndash;41% margin Baltimore County voters defeat a plan to borrow $4 million to build the proposed Oregon Ridge performance center.</p>
<p class="small">“Voting on Baltimore county questions.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 9 Nov. 1978, p. A11.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1979">1979</h2>
<p>Jim Rouse leaves the company that bears his name, and Merriweather Post Pavilion sticks to non-rock fare as the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra considers leaving the pavilion.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>March: Howard County Executive J. Hugh Nichols announces that the county will not issue concert permits for Merriweather Post Pavilion until a security plan is in place to control access to the pavilion and Symphony Woods during concerts.</p>
<p class="small">“‘Security plan’ required for pavilion at Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 13 Mar. 1979, p. 5C.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May: Jim Rouse steps down as CEO of the Rouse Company.</p>
<p class="small">“Annual meeting marks end of an era for Rouse.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 24 May 1979, p. 15A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 1: With “people like Paul Anka, [Engelbert] Whatshisdink, Perry Como, George Benson, Chuck Mangione, [Joan] Baez, and Judy Collins,” critic Tom Basham criticizes “blandness” in Merriweather Post Pavilion’s summer schedule, with the pavilion “serving cold turkey to rock fans this year.”</p>
<p class="small">Basham, Tom.  “Dog days lie ahead.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 1 June 1979, p. B6.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 21: Baltimore Symphony Orchestra President Joseph Meyerhoff proposes a scaled-down pavilion for Oregon Ridge park as the new summer home for the BSO.</p>
<p class="small">Trammer, Monte L.  “Pavilion plan considered in county.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 22 June 1979, p. C22.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1980">1980</h2>
<p>Symphony Woods continues to function mainly as the entry way to Merriweather Post Pavilion, as the pavilion continues to compete with Oregon Ridge Park for classical performances.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Juny 2: Critic Stephen Sera reviews Baltimore Symphony Orchestra summer concerts and praises the acoustic quality of Merriweather Post Pavilion compared to Oregon Ridge Park.</p>
<p class="small">Cera, Stephen.  “BSO does justice to Tchaikovsky.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 2 July 1980, p. C3.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September: In the course of a dispute between the Columbia Association and the operators of Merriweather Post Pavilion, Lt. James Robey of the Howard County Police Department (and later Howard County Executive) testifies that without the closing of Symphony Woods before and during Merriweather performances “there will be no pavilion.”  Members of the Columbia Association Board of Directors<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup> complain that as a result families can’t picnic in Symphony Woods most weekends during the summer.</p>
<p class="small">Garland, Jeanne.  “Pavilion operators ask the council to eliminate fee for closing woods.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 14 Sept. 1980, p. 3.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 4: By a margin of only 126 votes Baltimore County voters approve a $1.25 million bond issue to construct an Oregon Ridge performance center to be used by the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra. However the performance center fails to attract matching state funding.</p>
<p class="small">“Oregon Ridge barely won.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 14 Nov. 1980, p. D2.</p>
<p class="small">Sin, Richard H. P.  “Hutchinson drops bid for Oregon Ridge aid.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 26 Feb. 1981, p. C20.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1982">1982</h2>
<p>Jim Rouse finds life after the Rouse Company, Michael and Barbara McCall move to Columbia as Michael begins working with Rouse, and the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra abandons Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January: Jim and Patty Rouse found the non-profit Enterprise Foundation (later renamed Enterprise Community Partners) and its for-profit subsidiary, the Enterprise Development Company.</p>
<p class="small">Peirce, Neal R.  “For the poorest.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 18 Jan. 1982, p. 11A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Spring: Michael McCall and his wife Barbara move from Minneapolis to Columbia, and McCall joins the Enterprise Development Company as its fourth employee to work on various projects, including a joint venture with Walt Disney Co.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “‘An awesome responsibility’.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 14 Mar. 2013, p. 1.</p>
<p class="small">Strategic Leisure.  “Who.”  <em>Strategic Leisure</em>, <a href="https://strategicleisure.com/who/">strategicleisure.com/who</a>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 26: For the first time in almost a decade the Baltimore Symphony Orchestra does not play at Merriweather Post Pavilion, instead scheduling summer concerts at Oregon Ridge Park and Pier 6 at the Inner Harbor.</p>
<p class="small">Cera, Stephen.  “Summer concerts set in 3 locations.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 26 May 1982, p. C17.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1983">1983</h2>
<p>One of the last non-Merriweather attractions at or near Symphony Woods shuts down.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>April 5. Someone sets fire to the backstage area of Merriweather Post Pavilion, causing $250,000 damage.</p>
<p class="small">“Pavilion fire ruled arson.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 7 Apr. 1983, p. D2.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July: The petting zoo at Symphony Woods closes due to lack of interest.</p>
<p class="small">Wyskida, Sherry.  “Declining attendance brings close of Children’s Zoo.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 13 July 1983, p. 11.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1985">1985</h2>
<p>Symphony Woods loses another non-Merriweather attraction.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>February 28: The Maryland Renaissance Festival receives approval to move its operations from next to Symphony Woods to a dedicated site in Crownsville, Maryland.</p>
<p class="small">Clark, Michael J.  “Renaissance festival gets OK for site.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 1 Mar. 1985, p. 3D.</p>
<p class="small">Sarris, Marina.  “Cultural diversity lost as Renaissance festival moves.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 10 Mar. 1985, p. 2.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1992">1992</h2>
<p>The Rouse Company makes a first attempt at developing its property next to Symphony Woods, as Michael McCall strikes out on his own.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>March 19: The Howard County Council (acting as the Zoning Board) rejects a request from the Rouse Company to build 300 apartments in Columbia Town Center next to Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Nelson, Erik.  “Howard County officials trim plan for Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 21 Mar. 1992, p. 2B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: Michael McCall founds Strategic Leisure, Inc.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “‘An awesome responsibility’.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 14 Mar. 2013, p. 1.</p>
<p class="small">Strategic Leisure.  “Who.”  <em>Strategic Leisure</em>, <a href="https://strategicleisure.com/who/">strategicleisure.com/who</a>.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication.  27 May 2016.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1993">1993</h2>
<p>More than 25 years after its creation, interest grows in encouraging more use of Symphony Woods.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>May 15-16: The first Wine in the Woods festival is held in Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Nelson, Erik.  “Wine gala is called a success.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 17 May 1993, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November: The Columbia Association contracts with Land Design Research (later renamed LDR International), a firm founded by former Columbia planner Cy Paumier and his associates, to study ways to increase the use of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Sachs, Adam.  “Citizens group aims to influence plan for Symphony Woods.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 1 Dec. 1993, p. 3B.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1994">1994</h2>
<p>The first park plan for Symphony Woods appears, along with another new park attraction.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>November 10: LDR International presents the results of its study on development of Symphony Woods, recommending a pathway around the park with a more formal park entrance and boardwalks over environmentally sensitive areas, a formal garden and wildflower plantings, seating for picnickers, and a “sound garden” with hidden speakers or fountains.  The plan is later estimated to cost $600,000.</p>
<p class="small">Sachs, Adam.  “Path, boardwalk urged for Symphony Woods.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 Nov. 1994, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Sachs, Adam.  “Cost of upgrading Symphony Woods estimated at $600,000.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 12 Dec. 1994, p. 3B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December: The first Symphony of Lights display is held in and around Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">“Drive through display of seasonal light scenes.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 15 Nov. 1994, p. 6B.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1995">1995</h2>
<p>Development in downtown Columbia and Symphony Woods is stalled, and the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion is uncertain.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>February 16: LDR International again presents its plan for Symphony Woods at a public hearing sponsored by the Columbia Association, amid concerns that the plan is “too extravagant” and recommendations to “move slowly” on the project, citing (among other things) the fact that the park is closed for Merriweather Post Pavilion concerts during the summer.  Only one resident attends the hearing.</p>
<p class="small">Sachs, Adam.  “Council to begin deliberations tonight on Columbia Association budget.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 16 Feb. 1995, p. 6B.</p>
<p class="small">Sachs, Adam.  “Financial committee pans plan for recreational vehicle parking.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 17 Feb. 1995, p. 3B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 27: Amid resident concerns about spending increases the Columbia Association Board of Directors votes to cut the CA budget, deferring several capital projects including a $102,000 project to dredge the pond in Symphony Woods, the first phase of the park plan proposed by LDR International.</p>
<p class="small">Sachs, Adam.  “Council adopts budget.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 28 Feb. 1995, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May: The Rouse Company asks Howard County for permission to build 345 apartments or condominiums next to Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Nelson, Erik.  “345 apartments proposed for Town Center.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 16 May 1995, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June: In his comments before the Howard County Planning Board regarding the Rouse Company’s rezoning request, Rouse executive Alton Scavo raises the possibility of Merriweather Post Pavilion being closed down, and also speculates about adding an arts, educational, and cultural center near the pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Coram, James M., and Adam Sachs.  “No overhaul of Pavilion is planned.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 19 June 1995, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July: The Howard County Planning Board rejects the Rouse Company’s proposal to develop apartments next to Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods, citing the risk of the pavilion being forced to close due to noise complaints and the need to preserve downtown land for commercial development.</p>
<p class="small">Nelson, Erik.  “Rouse plan for apartments near Post Pavilion denied.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 30 July 1995, p. 3C.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1996">1996</h2>
<p>The end of an era in Columbia.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>April 9: Jim Rouse dies.</p>
<p class="small">Lally, Kathy.  “Urban visionary succumbs at 81.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 10 Apr. 1996, p. 1A.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1997">1997</h2>
<p>The Rouse Company attempts to address issues with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>April: Contracts are signed for an initial set of renovations at Merriweather Post Pavilion, designed to help it compete with other venues.</p>
<p class="small">“Post Pavilion improvements will permit larger-scale acts.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 23 Apr. 1997, p. 3B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October: As Merriweather Post Pavilion celebrates its 30th birthday, its size and outdated facilities make it less competitive compared to alternative venues like the new Nissan Pavilion (now Jiffy Lube Live) in northern Virginia.</p>
<p class="small">Hedgpeth, Dana.  “Newer venues challenge pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 20 Oct. 1997, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="1999">1999</h2>
<p>Merriweather Post Pavilion sees a new operator, but plans to create a park in Symphony Woods provoke little interest.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>March: Concert promoter SFX International takes over operations at Merriweather Post Pavilion from the Nederlander organization.</p>
<p class="small">Neal, Jill Hudson.  “Merriweather concert lease goes to SFX.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 23 Mar. 1999, p. 2C.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 25: Cy Paumier and LDR International present to the Columbia Association a proposal to make Symphony Woods more accessible to visitors.</p>
<p class="small">Niedowski, Erika.  “Columbia looks to improve access to Symphony Woods.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 25 Mar. 1999, p. 3B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 22: Cy Paumier and LDR International again present to the Columbia Association Board of Directors a proposal for Symphony Woods, and wait for the board to decide whether to begin discussions about it.</p>
<p class="small">Niedowski, Erika.  “Symphony Woods renovation eyed.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 23 July 1999, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Niedowski, Erika.  “Marando calls for council review.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 13 Aug. 1999, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2003">2003</h2>
<p>The Rouse Company makes a last attempt at developing downtown Columbia and threatens to downsize Merriweather Post Pavilion, as others revive the idea of creating a park in Symphony Woods.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>March: The Rouse Company considers applying for permission to build more residential units in Columbia Town Center, and rumors circulate about the fate of Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Reconsidering Town Center.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>,  Howard ed., 23 Mar. 2003, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 21: The Rouse Company proposes adding 1,600 residential units in Columbia Town Center next to Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion, helping to create a “vibrant urban center.”</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Rouse subsidiary seeks OK for 2,141 more units.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 1 May 2003, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 24: After two years of debate and discussion, the Columbia Association Board of Directors approves a strategic plan for CA, including a list of 19 priorities for 2004 and other items for future years.  Developing Symphony Woods as a park is not among them.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Columbia Council lists its long-term goals.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 1 May 2003, p. 3B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 29: The Howard County Planning Board approves the Rouse Company’s request to add 2,141 new residential units, including about 1,600 units in Columbia Town Center.  Rouse executive Dennis Miller pledges that units will not be built on the Merriweather Post Pavilion or Symphony Woods properties: “[Merriweather Post Pavilion] will always be used for the arts.”  Miller later repeats the pledge to counter rumors that Merriweather Post Pavilion will be closed, although he notes that development could affect the pavilion’s parking lots.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Planning Board OKs additional housing units.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 30 May 2003, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Merriweather Post rumors denied.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 22 July 2003, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 23: The Rouse Company proposes converting Merriweather Post Pavilion into a year-round indoor theater, noting that the pavilion has been “deteriorating through the years.”  Members of the recently-formed advocacy group Save Merriweather speak out against the plan.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Board delays Rouse hearings.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 25 July 2003, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Theater proposed for Post Pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 24 July 2003, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Alexander, Sandy.  “Fans want Merriweather to stay the same.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 24 Aug. 2003, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">“History and accomplishments.”  <em>SaveMerriweather.com</em>, Save Merriweather, 2004, <a href="http://www.savemerriweather.com/history.html">www.savemerriweather.com/history.html</a>.  Accessed 11 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September&ndash;October: As the Howard County Council (in its role as the Zoning Board) conducts a series of contentious public hearings on the Rouse Company’s proposals, council member (and future County Executive) Ken Ulman and Columbia Association board member Joshua Feldmark attempt to revive the idea of developing Symphony Woods as a park, citing their rediscovery of LDR International’s 1999 proposal to CA.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Windfall seen in building proposal.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 Sept. 2003, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Residents testify on Town Center proposal.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 12 Sept. 2003, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Press Rouse for details on housing, panel told.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 25 Sept. 2003, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “A vision of ‘Central Park’ in Howard.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 5 Oct. 2003, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry, and Laura Cadiz.  “Rouse Co. defends plan for zoning.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 21 Oct. 2003, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October: The Rouse Company hires I.M.P., the owner of the 9:30 Club in Washington DC, to manage Merriweather Post Pavilion, replacing Clear Channel Entertainment (formerly SFX Entertainment).</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “New Merriweather management.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 15 Oct. 2003, p. 3E.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 3: The Howard County Council holds its eighth and final public hearing on the Rouse Company’s proposal to add more residential units in Columbia Town Center and elsewhere.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Eighth hearing held on rezoning.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 4 Nov. 2003, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2004">2004</h2>
<p>The Rouse Company is absorbed into General Growth Properties, as the Howard County Council gets more involved in planning downtown Columbia and attendees see the first fruits of I.M.P.’s management of Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January 21: The Howard County Council unanimously rejects the Rouse Company’s request to add 2,141 residential units to Columbia.  Chair Ken Ulman cites the need for an analysis of possible revisions to Columbia’s New Town zoning scheme, as well as a desire for more details on pedestrian access, a possible Symphony Woods park, and other issues.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “County board rejects Rouse’s downtown plan.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 22 January 2004, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Zoning denial spurs doubts about Rouse.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 25 Jan 2004, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Pichaske, Pete.  “Rejection could signal end of New Town zoning.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 29 Jan. 2004, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February&ndash;March: As the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion remains uncertain in the face of Rouse Company plans to convert it to an indoor theater, I.M.P. Productions previews its first season of events at the pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Alexander, Sandy.  “Venue posts concert dates.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 5 Feb. 2004, p. 1E.</p>
<p class="small">Alexander, Sandy.  “Merriweather Post holding on.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 21 Mar. 2004, p. 62T.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 31: The Rouse Company files a court appeal of the Howard County Council’s rejection of its plans.  (The appeal is ultimately unsuccessful.)</p>
<p class="small">“Rouse Co. appeals rejection of its plan to add homes in Columbia Town Center.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 8 Apr. 2004, p. 3B.</p>
<p class="small">Wan, William.  “Judge to rule on fate of land next to Merriweather Post Pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 13 Mar. 2005, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Plans for Columbia are moving forward.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 14 Sept. 2005, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June: The Howard County Council decides to undertake its own comprehensive analysis of Columbia’s New Town zoning regulations, while Howard County plans to study the feasibility of purchasing Merriweather Post Pavilion from the Rouse Company.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Council abandons plans for citizen zoning panel.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 17 June 2004, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “County weighs buying Merriweather.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 24 June 2004, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July: As I.M.P. works to make improvements to Merriweather Post Pavilion and increase revenue, Howard County Executive Jim Robey proposes financing a county purchase of the pavilion using ticket sales and concessions revenue.</p>
<p class="small">Alexander, Sandy.  “Merriweather pavilion dances to a new theme.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 1 July 2004, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Tickets seen as source of funds for pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 4 July 2004, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Managers combat pavilion’s reputation.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 25 July 2004, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 28: County Executive Jim Robey creates a citizens advisory panel to advise him on whether Howard County should purchase Merriweather Post Pavilion from the Rouse Company.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Robey names panel to study pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 29 July 2004, p. 3B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>August 20: General Growth Properties (GGP) announces its intent to acquire the Rouse Company for $12.6 billion.  Rouse executive Bob Rubenkonig announces “it’s definitely business as usual” as far as plans for Columbia and Merriweather Post Pavilion are concerned.</p>
<p class="small">Hopkins, Jamie Smith.  “Rouse to sell to competitor.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 21 Aug. 2004, p. 1A.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Rouse plans survive sale.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 24 Aug. 2004, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September: As the Rouse Company renews I.M.P.’s contract to manage Merriweather Post Pavilion, I.M.P. co-owner Seth Hurwitz urges the citizens advisory panel on the pavilion to maintain it as an open-air venue, and pavilion manager Jean Parker points to the need for at least $5 million in repairs.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Firm that operates pavilion opposes plan to enclose it.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 29 Sept. 2004, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 13: The Howard County Council begins a series of public hearings on proposals to revise zoning regulations for Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “County holds zoning forum.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 14 Sept. 2004, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 12: General Growth Properties concludes its purchase of the Rouse Company.  As a consequence of the acquisition, GGP assumes responsibility for planning in Columbia Town Center.</p>
<p class="small">Hopkins, Jamie Smith.  “Rouse, real estate innovator, moves into history.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 13 Nov. 2004, p. 11C.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December: As General Growth Properties encounters resistance to its new role in Columbia, the Columbia Association proposes holding a weeklong “charrette” in which residents, developers, and county officials could create draft proposals for downtown Columbia development.</p>
<p class="small">Wan, William.  “Rouse buyer meets friction.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 19 Dec. 2004, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">“Columbia leaders propose a summit on land use.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 17 Dec. 2004, p. 2B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 17: As Howard County’s exclusive right to purchase Merriweather Post Pavilion expires, the citizens advisory panel on the pavilion issues its preliminary recommendations, advising against converting it to an indoor venue.  The panel also offers suggestions on addressing future parking needs at Merriweather Post Pavilion, including entering into parking agreements with nearby office buildings or building parking garages on the Symphony Woods property.</p>
<p class="small">Wan, William.  “Howard rights to venue set to expire.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 19 Dec. 2004, p. 8B.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2005">2005</h2>
<p>Merriweather Post Pavilion is saved and is proposed as a center for culture and the arts for Columbia and Howard County, as GGP, Howard County, and others plot the future of Columbia’s downtown.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January: The citizens advisory panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion prepares to make its final recommendations amid confusion and controversy about General Growth Properties’s plans for the pavilion and for downtown Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Wan, William.  “Fate of Merriweather Post Pavilion may be decided soon.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 16 Jan. 2005, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 18: The citizens advisory panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion produces its final report, recommending that Howard County purchase the pavilion, and advising “positioning Merriweather as a center for the arts, education and culture and making it an important regional and cultural force.”  The panel recommends making about $19.5 million in renovations to the pavilion, including raising its roof.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Panel recommends Howard buy pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 19 Mar. 2005, p. 3B.</p>
<p class="small">Citizen Advisory Panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion. <em>Final Report</em>. Howard County, 2005, <a href="/assets/texts/citizens-advisory-panel-on-merriweather-post-pavilion-final-report.pdf">frankhecker.com/assets/texts/citizens-advisory-panel-on-merriweather-post-pavilion-final-report.pdf</a>.  Accessed 26 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 11: Howard County Council members Guy Guzzone and Ken Ulman announce Howard County Executive Jim Robey’s decision to fund development of a community master plan for downtown Columbia, in parallel with efforts by General Growth Properties to develop its own plan.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “2 Town Center plans coming.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 13 Apr. 2005, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Mastering a plan for Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 17 Apr. 2005, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 12: General Growth Properties abandons plans to convert Merriweather Post Pavilion into an indoor venue and subsequently takes the pavilion off the market, declaring that “the [Town Center and Merriweather Post Pavilion] are linked.”</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Howard pavilion to stay open air.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 13 Apr. 2005, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Downtown plan for Columbia tied to pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 1 May 2005. p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 18: General Growth Properties holds a public meeting to unveil a draft plan for downtown Columbia, including a proposed development of three buildings in the Crescent property south and west of Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura, and Larry Carson.  “Developer unveils its plan for Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 19 May 2005, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June: General Growth Properties holds  public “town hall” meetings to present a framework for a future master plan for downtown Columbia and discuss issues of traffic and walkability.</p>
<p class="small">“You’re invited to attend the 2nd Columbia town hall meeting.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 10 June 2005, p. 5G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October: Howard County sponsors a weeklong charrette, a series of public meetings (originally proposed by the Columbia Association) to solicit input on the future of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Wheeler, Timothy B.  “A ‘there’ there: Seeking a more urban Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 2 Oct. 2005, p. 6F.</p>
<p class="small">Otto, Mary.  “‘Whatever happened to Tivoli?’” <em>Washington Post</em>, 13 Oct. 2005. p. T12.</p>
<p class="small">Blakely, Andrei.  “Charrette gives public voice in planning of downtown.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 13 Oct. 2005.</p>
<p class="small">Blakely, Andrei.  “Mass input guides new downtown Columbia.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 20 Oct. 2005.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2006">2006</h2>
<p>A vision for downtown Columbia starts to form, as the Columbia Association pulls back on its participation in planning efforts and a new generation of Howard County politicians takes power.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>February 27: The Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning presents a draft master plan for downtown Columbia.  It treats Symphony Woods, Merriweather Post Pavilion, and the Crescent property as an integrated neighborhood for planning purposes, and envisions it as “a cultural, residential, service retail, and office district.”  It also suggests improving pedestrian access to Symphony Woods from the mall, and includes a rendering of a possible promenade from the mall terminating at a fountain in Symphony Woods just south of Little Patuxent Parkway.</p>
<p class="small">Cadiz, Laura.  “Columbia plan is on way.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 26 Feb. 2006, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Design Collective, Inc., and Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>The Columbia Downtown Master Plan (Preliminary Draft)</em>. Howard County, Maryland, 27 Feb. 2006, <a href="https://archive.org/details/CDMP1Intro">archive.org/details/CDMP1Intro</a>.  Accessed 11 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 9: The Columbia Association Board of Directors debates a resolution to prohibit CA staff, including CA President Maggie Brown, from having private discussions with General Growth Properties and Howard County officials regarding downtown Columbia planning.  The board votes to amend the resolution to instead require the staff to report on the times, places, and attendees for all such meetings, and not enter into any agreements without public review by the board.</p>
<p>Even with the clarification provided by the resolution, confusion and controversy persist regarding the extent to which CA staff can or should discuss downtown Columbia planning issues with GGP, Howard County, or others.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes, Board of Directors Meeting, Held: Thursday, March 9, 2006, Approved March 23, 2006</em>. 23 Mar. 2006, p. 3.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association. <em>Resolution on Downtown Partnership Meetings</em> [as introduced]. 9 Mar. 2006.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association. <em>Amendment to: Resolution on Downtown Partnership Meetings</em> [as approved]. 9 Mar. 2006.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Much ado about meeting.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 2 Apr. 2008, p. 2U.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “CA board ‘off to a good start.’”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 28 May 2008, p. 3U.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October 19: General Growth Properties and Howard Community College sponsor the first in a series of “Voices of Vision” presentations in which invited speakers present on topics relevant to Columbia downtime planning.  Further events are held in November 2006 and January 2007.</p>
<p class="small">“Columbia: ‘Grow or die’.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 22 Oct. 2006, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 7: Ken Ulman is elected Howard County Executive.  Calvin Ball, Greg Fox, Mary Kay Sigaty, Jen Terrasa, and Courtney Watson are elected to the Howard County Council.</p>
<p class="small">Paley, Amit R.  “Ulman wins as Democrats strengthen hold on council.”  <em>Washington Post</em>, 8 Nov. 2006, p. A43.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2007">2007</h2>
<p>Downtown planning efforts continue, and identify Symphony Woods as a key component of the vision for downtown Columbia.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>September 28: The Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning releases a draft document <em>Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision</em>.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Howard releases ‘vision’ of town.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 29 Sept. 2007, p. 1B.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision (Draft)</em>.  Howard County, Maryland, 28 Sept. 2007, <a href="https://archive.org/details/DCCVDraft092807All">archive.org/details/DCCVDraft092807All</a>.  Accessed 11 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November: Columbia Association board member Cynthia Coyle and Alex Hekimian and Alan Klein (of the advocacy groups Alliance for a Better Columbia and the Coalition for Columbia’s Downtown respectively) protest General Growth Properties scheduling private meetings with members of Columbia village boards to discuss downtown redevelopment, citing provisions of the Maryland Homeowners Association Act.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “GGP is holding private meetings on Town Center.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 14 Nov. 2007, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 10: Greg Hamm replaces Doug Godine as Regional Vice President of General Growth Properties and general manager of Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “GGP selects Hamm for post.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 12 Dec. 2007, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 28: The Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning releases the final version of <em>Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision</em>.  It recommends “both woodland restoration [of Symphony Woods] to enhance its value as a natural area and additional activities to meet its full potential as the ‘Central Park’ for Downtown.”  It also recommends a promenade connecting Symphony Woods to the mall.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “A downtown re-vision.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 30 Dec. 2007, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision</em>.  Howard County, Maryland, 28 Dec. 2007, <a href="https://archive.org/details/DCCV2007">archive.org/details/DCCV2007</a>.  Accessed 11 May 2017.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2008">2008</h2>
<p>General Growth Properties promotes its new plan for downtown, including Symphony Woods, and the Columbia Association reacts.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January: The Columbia Association adds a preliminary budget item for a new CA headquarters, possibly to be located on CA-owned land in Symphony Woods next to Toby’s Dinner Theater.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Association offers 2009, 2010 budgets.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 16 Jan. 2008, p. 4U.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March: General Growth Properties begins a series of four public forums to discuss the future of downtown Columbia.  Alan Ward, one of the designers working on a GGP plan for downtown Columbia, comments on possible arts and cultural uses for Symphony Woods: “Merriweather Post Pavilion is important, but what else goes on in Symphony Woods? What could make it more part of the life and future of downtown?”</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Trying to get Columbia on the right foot.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 9 Mar. 2008, p. 8U.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Architect shares Town Center ideas.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 Apr. 2008, p. 4U.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 3: General Growth Properties and the Columbia Association meet for the first time to discuss issues relating to downtown Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Much ado about meeting.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 2 Apr. 2008, p. 2U.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “GGP, CA upbeat on meeting.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 9 Apr. 2008, p. 3U.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 28: General Growth Properties presents to the public a proposed master plan for downtown Columbia.  The plan proposes a “cultural spine” linking The Mall in Columbia with a renovated Merriweather Post Pavilion, including a pedestrian promenade from the mall to the pavilion, multiple civic and cultural buildings within Symphony Woods, and a new road south of and parallel to Little Patuxent Parkway.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “GGP reveals downtown Columbia plan.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 29 Apr. 2008, p. 2B.</p>
<p class="small">Gunts, Edward.  “Putting a ‘there’ there.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 5 May 2008, p. 1C.</p>
<p class="small">“Downtown Columbia Plan: Overview.”  <em>Columbia Town Center</em>, General Growth Properties, <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20080509064819/http://www.columbiatowncenter.info/MasterPlan/draft.aspx">columbiatowncenter.info/MasterPlan.aspx</a>. Archived 9 May 2008.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 10: General Growth Properties begins a series of “Vision in Focus” public presentations describing the proposed master plan, as well as a separate “Community Discussions” series.  Consultant Gail Dexter Lord emphasizes the need for new cultural attractions in downtown Columbia, as controversy arises over GGP’s proposal to put buildings on CA-owned land within Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Future Columbia transit previewed for residents.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 May 2008, p. 3U.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Culture is keynote of Columbia forum.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 14 May 2008, p. 6U.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Residents give GGP proposal mixed reviews.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 14 May 2008, p. 7U.</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “Makeover for Merriweather.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 26 May 2008, p. 1B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 22: The newly-elected Columbia Association Board of Directors meets and receives updates on the CA staff’s recent initial meeting with General Growth Properties.  The CA board also authorizes making a formal request to Howard County officials to delay any zoning changes to give the board time to talk with officials.  Board member Tom O’Connor notes that “we haven’t talked to them at all because we’ve had this embargo on [CA] staff talking to the county.”</p>
<p class="small">Arney, June.  “CA board ‘off to a good start’.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 28 May 2008, p. 3U.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 26: The Columbia Association Board of Directors adopts a seventeen point position statement crafted by the Planning and Strategy Committee that articulates CA’s position on desired outcomes for downtown development, including that “Symphony Woods will be protected and will serve as Columbia’s Community Park.”  The board also approves sending a letter to Howard County and GGP outlining its position.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes, Board of Directors Meeting, Held: Thursday, June 26, 2008, Approved August 28, 2008</em>.  28 Aug. 2008, p. 5.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 11: General Growth Properties previews its planned rezoning submission to Howard County in a public meeting.  Among other things, the plan proposes developing “culturally themed buildings and green spaces” in the northern portion of Symphony Woods.  In response to a concern expressed about “the incredible shrinking Symphony Woods,” GGP Vice President Greg Hamm remarks that “Symphony Woods is a seriously degraded environment” and points to reforestation plans for woods along US 29.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Views of the future.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 July 2008, p. 4U.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 24: The Columbia Association Board of Directors approves a set of “Guiding Principles for Future Plans for Development of Symphony Woods,” to be used by CA staff in discussions with General Growth Properties:</p>
<ol>
<li>Restoration and maintenance of a vibrant and natural ecosystem.</li>
<li>Provisions for a gathering place for individuals and community events.</li>
<li>Merriweather Post Pavilion will be an exciting and active destination.</li>
<li>Limited new roadways or buildings of a park-related scale.</li>
<li>Connectivity and accessibility to the rest of the downtown.</li>
</ol>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes, Board of Directors Meeting, Held: Thursday, July 24, 2008, Approved September 25, 2008</em>.  25 Sept. 2008, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 28: The newly formed advocacy group Columbia 2.0 announces its support for redevelopment of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Role by youth urged in Columbia’s plans.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 29 July 2008, p. 2B.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 9: The newly-formed advocacy group Columbia Tomorrow meets in Symphony Woods to express support for the General Growth Properties proposal and for the restoration of what it calls an ”environmentally sensitive area that has been unintentionally neglected.”</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “New group backing Columbia proposal.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 Sept. 2008, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 24: General Growth Properties Vice President Greg Hamm issues reassurances that GGP’s financial problems will not affect its plans for downtown Columbia redevelopment.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Developer about to redo Columbia faces cash crunch.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 28 Sept. 2008, p. 8A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 25: The Columbia Association Board of Directors approves having CA staff work with Cy Paumier and associates “to collaborate and work toward developing a best approach and budget estimate for CA to move forward with a plan/programming/design for CA property in the Downtown.”</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes, Board of Directors Meeting, Held: Thursday, September 25, 2008, Approved October 23, 2008</em>.  23 Oct 2008, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October 1: General Growth Properties formally submits its General Plan Amendment, Zoning Regulations Amendment, and supplemental materials to the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  That evening Greg Hamm presents GGP’s proposals for downtown Columbia to the Columbia Association Board of Directors.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Makeover under way.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 5 Oct. 2008, p. 1A.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes, Board of Directors Special Meeting, Held: Wednesday, October 1, 2008, Approved December 23, 2008</em>.  23 Dec. 2008, p. 1.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Makeover underway.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 5 Oct. 2008, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October 29: At a meeting sponsored by the advocacy group Coalition for Columbia’s Downtown, Alan Klein criticizes GGP plans to remove 40 percent of the trees in Symphony Woods, and Cy Paumier shows artist’s conceptions of an alternative proposal for Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Pitts, Jonathan.  “Coalition critiques Columbia plan.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 2 Nov. 2008, p. 2G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 8: The Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning issues its Technical Staff Report in response to General Growth Properties’s submission.  Among other things, DPZ recommends either finding alternative locations for buildings proposed in Symphony Woods or finding other replacement parkland.</p>
<p class="small">Pitts, Jonathan.  “Howard planners give conditional OK to GGP proposal for Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 11 Nov. 2008, p. 9A.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>Technical Staff Report, ZRA 113</em>.  Howard County, Maryland, 13 Nov. 2008, <a href="/assets/texts/ZRA113StaffReport.pdf">frankhecker.com/assets/texts/ZRA113StaffReport.pdf</a>.  Accessed 11 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Session examines GGP zoning proposals for Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 4 Dec. 2008, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 11: The Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning holds its first hearing to discuss the General Growth Properties submission to the Howard County Planning Board, as GGP seeks to address its financial problems.</p>
<p class="small">Pitts, Jonathan.  “Specifics sought from GGP.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 14 Dec. 2008, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Walker, Andrea K., and Larry Carson.  “Columbia developer trying to refinance.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 13 Dec. 2008, p. 10A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 23: The Columbia Association Board of Directors unanimously approves beginning work on a concept plan for Symphony Woods development.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes, Board of Directors Meeting, Held: Tuesday, December 23, 2008, Approved January 22, 2009</em>.  22 Jan. 2009, p. 4.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2009">2009</h2>
<p>Howard County evaluates and reworks the General Growth Properties plan, while the Columbia Association moves forward with its own plans for a park in Symphony Woods.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January 8: Greg Hamm of General Growth Properties presents GGP’s response to the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning’s Technical Staff Report to the Howard County Planning Board.  Among other things, GGP agrees “to provide 1 acre of new parkland for every acre of Symphony Woods where new buildings are planned.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile architectural critic Roger Lewis revisits Columbia’s progress after 20 years and recommends “making [Columbia] denser . . . with a greater variety of uses in order to create destinations where you want to be 24/7 and 365.”</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Dispute on downtown Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 Jan. 2009, p. 3G.</p>
<p class="small">Holzberg, Janene.  “Rethinking Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 Jan. 2009, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>January 22: Former Columbia Association board member Jud Malone (a founder of the advocacy group Columbia Tomorrow) recommends that CA turn Symphony Woods over to Howard County for conversion into a public park.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Columbia developer agrees to lower-cost housing.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 25 Jan. 2009, p. 2G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February: Cy Paumier and associates announce they are working on a new plan for Symphony Woods for consideration by the Columbia Association.</p>
<p class="small">Simmonsen, Derek.  “CA devising alternative plan for Symphony Woods.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 5 Feb. 2009.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 26: The Columbia Association Board of Directors unanimously approves a Symphony Woods concept plan created by Cy Paumier, John Slater, and associates, and directs that it be presented to the general public.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes, Board of Directors Meeting, Held: Thursday, March 26, 2009, Approved June 25, 2009</em>.  25 June 2009, p. 3.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 16: General Growth Properties files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as concerns are raised about GGP’s ability to pursue the redevelopment of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Walker, Andrea K.  “General Growth Properties seeks bankruptcy protection.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 17 Apr. 2009, p. 1A.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Columbia plan in danger?” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 17 Apr. 2009, p. 1A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 1: Phil Nelson becomes the new President of the Columbia Association.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Residents meet CA’s new head.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 28 June 2009, p. 2G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 1: Merriweather Post Pavilion managers unveil $1 million worth of updates to the pavilion, including expanded bathrooms and a new concession stand.</p>
<p class="small">“Merriweather has a lot to crow about.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 2 June 2009, p. 12A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>August 27: The Columbia Association Board of Directors unanimously approves sending a letter to the Howard County Planning Board notifying it of CA’s intention to present a concept plan for Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes, Board of Directors Meeting, Held: Thursday, August 27, 2009, Approved September 24, 2009</em>.  24 Sept. 2009, p. 4.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  Letter to Howard County Planning Board.  Aug. 2009.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 3: The Howard County Planning Board approves the conceptual portion of the General Growth Properties plan for downtown Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Columbia remake moves forward.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 6 Sept. 2009, p. 3G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 16: The Columbia Association presents to the public the concept plan developed by Cy Paumier, John Slater, and associates for development of Symphony Woods, including a formal pathway system, a fountain, a café, “Woodland Garden,” and a 120-space parking lot.</p>
<p class="small">Coyle, Cynthia.  “CA’s proposed design plan for Symphony Woods PARK.”  <em>Howard County Blog</em>, 17 Sept. 2009, <a href="http://howardcountyblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/cas-proposed-design-plan-for-symphony.html">howardcountyblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/cas-proposed-design-plan-for-symphony.html</a>.  Accessed 24 July 2011.</p>
<p class="small">“CA officials plan to turn Symphony Woods into a park.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 18 Sept. 2009.</p>
<p class="small">Markus, Don.  “Revitalization sought for Symphony Woods.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 18 Oct. 2009, p. 1.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 2: Howard County Council Chair Mary Kay Sigaty formally introduces Council Bills 58 and 59 (CB-58-2009 and CB-59-2009), legislation for the Downtown Columbia Plan and the associated zoning regulations.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Council.  <em>Bill No. 58-2009, AN ACT adopting the Downtown Columbia Plan, a General Plan Amendment for the purpose of revitalizing and redeveloping Downtown Columbia; and generally relating to the Downtown Columbia Plan, a General Plan Amendment</em>. Howard County, Maryland, 3 Feb. 2010, <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=6249">apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=6249</a>.  Accessed 6 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Council.  <em>Bill No. 59-2009, AN ACT amending the Howard County Zoning Regulations to create a new Downtown Columbia revitalization process in the New Town District; defining new terms; establishing a new residential density for Downtown Columbia; establishing new land use percentages for open space in Downtown Columbia; establishing an affordable housing provision for Downtown Columbia revitalization; establishing new off-street parking requirements for Downtown Columbia revitalization; and generally relating to the New Town zoning district</em>.  Howard County, Maryland, 3 Feb. 2010, <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=6326">apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=6326</a>.  Accessed 6 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 23: Lawyers assure the Howard County Council that the proposed plan for downtown Columbia will remain enforceable even in the event of General Growth Properties selling all or part of its holdings.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Plan for Columbia safe, council told.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 29 Nov. 2009, p. 4G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 2. At a Howard County Council meeting to discuss plans for downtown Columbia redevelopment, Philip Kirsch, Chair of the Columbia Association Board of Directors, and General Growth Properties Vice President Greg Hamm exchange accusations about lack of communications and GGP’s alleged desire to take CA land to expand Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Tension surfaces over pavilion.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 6 Dec. 2009, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 8: Columbia Association President Phil Nelson and General Growth Properties Vice President Greg Hamm assure the Howard County Council that CA and GGP will cooperate on negotiating any necessary easements as part of renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Clearing the air on redevelopment.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 13 Dec. 2009, p. 4G.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2010">2010</h2>
<p>Howard County officially adopts a new plan for downtown Columbia, including integrating Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods, and the Columbia Association continues its own park project.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January: The Columbia Association budgets an initial $2.3 million for development of Symphony Woods Park, as the Howard County delegation to the Maryland General Assembly approves a local bond bill for $250,000 in funding for the park.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Columbia cuts gym towels from budget.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 16 Jan. 2010, p. 2A.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Money matters, but it might not be enough this year.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 24 Jan. 2010, p. 3G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 1: The Howard County Council unanimously approves the new Downtown Columbia Plan as an amendment to the Howard County General Plan.  The plan describes the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood as “a new kind of cultural park where the landscape becomes a setting for arts, cultural and civic uses.”  In addition to Merriweather Post Pavilion and the park, the plan calls for “compatible commercial uses such as a café in the park or museum shop.”  The language in the original plan calling for streets through Symphony Woods is replaced by language specifying that “access through Merriweather-Symphony Woods that connects the civic and cultural uses will be compatible with the topography.”</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Columbia to undergo urban transformation.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 2 Feb. 2010, p. 1A.</p>
<p class="small"><em>Downtown Columbia Plan: A General Plan Amendment</em>.  Howard County, Maryland, 1 Feb. 2010, <a href="https://archive.org/details/downtown_columbia_plan">archive.org/details/downtown_columbia_plan</a>.  Accessed 6 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: The Maryland General Assembly approves $250,000 in funding for the Columbia Association’s development of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Battle on liquor license limits moves to new front.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 18 Apr. 2010, p. 3G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 15&ndash;16: The Wine in the Woods festival features a new layout, chosen in anticipation of the Columbia Association beginning work on Symphony Woods development.</p>
<p class="small">Holzberg, Janene.  “Celebration in Symphony Woods boasts a new layout.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 9 May 2010, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 18: Columbia Association President Phil Nelson announces that an anonymous nonprofit from outside Howard County will donate $250,000 to support development of Symphony Woods as a park.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Donor gives money for Symphony Woods project.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 23 May 2010, p. 7G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 20: Columbia Association President Phil Nelson informs the Board of Directors of a potential county roadblock to CA’s development of Symphony Woods, based on the need to follow after or coordinate with the plans of General Growth Properties.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, May 20, 2010, Approved: June 10, 2010</em>.  10 June 2010, p. 1.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July: General Growth Properties prepares to split itself into two entities, with GGP retaining ownership of The Mall in Columbia, and ownership of Merriweather Post Pavilion and undeveloped land in downtown Columbia being transferred to a new entity.</p>
<p class="small">Gunts, Edward, and Larry Carson.  “General Growth prepares to split.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 14 July 2010, p. 14A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 2: Faced with the need to dredge Lake Kittamaqundi, the Columbia Association contemplates taking money from the budget for the delayed Symphony Woods Park project.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “More funds to dredge proposed.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 5 Sept. 2010, p. 2G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 2: Ken Ulman is re-elected as Howard County Executive. Incumbents Calvin Ball, Greg Fox, Mary Kay Sigaty, Jen Terrasa, and Courtney Watson are all re-elected to the Howard County Council.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “‘Satisfied’ Howard voters stay with the incumbents.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 7 Nov. 2010, p. 2.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 9: The Howard Hughes Corporation is spun out of General Growth Properties, and assumes GGP’s responsibilities for planning in Columbia Town Center.</p>
<p class="small">General Growth Properties.  “General Growth Properties Completes Spinoff of The Howard Hughes Corporation.”  9 Nov. 2010, <a href="http://investor.howardhughes.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=241177&amp;p=irol-newsArticle_print&amp;ID=1494391">investor.howardhughes.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=241177&amp;p=irol-newsArticle_print&amp;ID=1494391</a>.  Accessed 6 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 26: As the Howard Hughes Corporation moves forward with its plans for downtown Columbia redevelopment, the Columbia Association schedules work on the Symphony Woods Park project to begin in December 2011.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Columbia plan for downtown picks up.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 27 Nov. 2010, p. 3A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December: Merriweather Post Pavilion is named one of the top three amphitheaters in the country by <em>Billboard</em> magazine.</p>
<p class="small">McPherson, Lindsey.  “Billboard: Merriweather Post rocks.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 2 Dec. 2010, p. 1.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2011">2011</h2>
<p>The Columbia Association unveils its plan for a park in Symphony Woods, but encounters problems in taking the plan through Howard County’s new and more rigorous planning process.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>March 7: The Howard County Council approves a new set of design guidelines for downtown Columbia, removing one potential roadblock to redevelopment of downtown Columbia, including Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “Council OKs Columbia sign rules.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 13 Mar. 2011, p. 4G.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Council.  <em>CR138-2010, A RESOLUTION adopting Downtown-wide Design Guidelines for Downtown Columbia</em>. Howard County, Maryland, 7 Mar. 2011, <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=1101">apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=1101</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>Downtown Columbia Design Guidelines: Downtown-Wide</em>. Howard County, Maryland, Nov. 2010, <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=fcdab7B57Cs%3d&amp;portalid=0">www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=fcdab7B57Cs%3d&amp;portalid=0</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: John DeWolf replaces Greg Hamm as the Regional Vice President of the Howard Hughes Corporation responsible for development of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Carson, Larry.  “He’s set to move quickly on Columbia changes.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 6 May 2011, p. 8A.</p>
<p class="small">McPherson, Lindsey.  “DeWolf eager to dive into downtown redevelopment.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 12 May 2011, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 9: The Columbia Association Board of Directors unanimously approves the so-called “Plan B” layout for development of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, June 9, 2011, Approved: June 23, 2011</em>.  23 June 2011, p. 3.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 16: In accordance with the new development review process for downtown Columbia, the Columbia Association hosts a pre-submission community meeting to present its plans for Symphony Woods.  CA notes that $1.2 million in funding for the first phase of the project is included in the 2011 capital budget, and another $1.4 million in the 2012 budget, in addition to a $250,000 Maryland state grant and a matching $250,000 donation promised by an anonymous donor.</p>
<p class="small">Toth, Sara.  “CA presents plans for Symphony Woods.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 23 June 2011, p. 16.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>Land development review process for downtown Columbia revitalization</em>. Howard County, Maryland, Nov. 2010, <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=_oT1cawSChY%3d&amp;portalid=0">www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=_oT1cawSChY%3d&amp;portalid=0</a>.  Accessed 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 13: The Howard County Design Advisory Panel reviews the Columbia Association proposal for Symphony Woods (based on the Cy Paumier design).  Various panel members criticize the design as lacking a suitable vision, and the panel’s decision recommends (among other things) defining a “specific vision for this site” and providing “more clarity to a theme for the neighborhood.”  In his own comments, DAP chair Rob Hollis notes that “As one of the first projects in a ‘new’ Town Center, this park should set the example for other projects to follow. It is imperative that Symphony Woods Park be of the highest design standards.”</p>
<p>Subsequently Barbara McCall brings to the attention of her husband Michael a <em>Columbia Flier</em> article on the Design Advisory Panel review.  He agrees with what he reads as the DAP’s concerns, but assumes that CA will make appropriate adjustments to the proposed park design.</p>
<p class="small">Toth, Sara.  “Design panel advises stronger vision for Symphony Woods.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 21 July 2011, p. 6.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Symphony Woods Park in Columbia Town Center: Design Advisory Panel Meeting for Final Development Plan</em>. 13 July 2011, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/DAP-meeting-7-13-11-copy-2.pdf">inartrust.org/s/DAP-meeting-7-13-11-copy-2.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Hollis, Rob.  <em>Design Advisory Panel 07-13-2011, Symphony Woods Park - Phase 1</em>. 13 July 2011, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/DAP-review-of-CA-plan-copy-2.pdf">inartrust.org/s/DAP-review-of-CA-plan-copy-2.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>August 11: The Columbia Association Board of Directors considers updated plans for Symphony Woods and a revised vision statement for the park, and discusses architectural details of park facilities and potential uses.  CA President Phil Nelson urges board members to focus on the plans for the first phase.</p>
<p class="small">Toth, Sara.  “Carousel for Symphony Woods? CA to study.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 18 Aug. 2011, p. 13.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 22: The Columbia Association Board of Directors votes 7-2 to approve the Final Development Plan for Symphony Woods as presented.  During the “resident speak out” portion of the same meeting Michael McCall, in his first public comments on Columbia, advocates for CA creating an overall strategy for all of Symphony Woods before deciding on the tactics by which to implement such a strategy.</p>
<p class="small">Greisman, David.  “CA says yes to first phase of Symphony Woods Park.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 29 Sept. 2011, p. 1.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, September 22, 2011, Approved: October 27, 2011</em>.  27 Oct. 2011, pp. 2-5.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October 13: Having approved the Symphony Woods Park plan and already specified the park’s benches and furniture, the Columbia Association Board of Directors votes 8&ndash;2 to adopt a formal vision statement for Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>In the audience is Michael McCall, who sees CA’s actions as contrary to the strategic planning principles he learned while working with Jim Rouse and the Walt Disney Company, especially given his view of the importance of the Symphony Woods property to the future of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, October 13, 2011, Approved: October 27, 2011</em>.  27 Oct. 2011, pp. 2-5.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October-November: In the wake of the October 13 meeting of the Columbia Association Board of Directors, Michael McCall meets with George Barker, his mentor and former manager at the Enterprise Development Company, former General Counsel of Howard Research and Development, and (along with Emily Lincoln) a leader of the advocacy group Bring Back the Vision.</p>
<p>After hearing McCall’s concerns about CA’s plans Barker volunteers to introduce McCall to Howard County Executive Ken Ulman, and with Lincoln reviews McCall’s presentation for that meeting.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael. <em>Tribute delivered by McCall to George Penniman Barker’s family, colleagues &amp; lifelong friends</em>.  3 June 2016, <a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/579e8dd81b631bd12f0cbc79/1470008793102/George+Barker+Tribute+statement.pdf">static1.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/579e8dd81b631bd12f0cbc79/1470008793102/George+Barker+Tribute+statement.pdf</a>.  Accessed 27 May 2016.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 18: Michael McCall, George Barker, and Emily Lincoln meet with Howard County Executive Ken Ulman, Jessica Feldmark and Ian Kennedy of the Howard County Executive staff, and Marsha McLaughlin and Bill Mackey, Director and Division Chief respectively of the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  McCall presents his criticisms of the Columbia Association’s plan for Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December: The Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning provides the Columbia Association comments and questions on CA’s submission for the Final Development Plan for Symphony Woods Park.  As with CA’s previous FDP submission, most of the DPZ comments and questions concern the park’s relationship to and integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion, including access points from the park to the pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Greisman, David.  “County: Plan for Symphony Woods Park needs fine-tuning.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 22 Dec. 2011, p. 14.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2012">2012</h2>
<p>Howard County mandates changes to the Symphony Wood Park project, the Columbia Association board and staff discuss how to proceed, and an alternative appears.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January 3: Michael McCall meets for the first time with John DeWolf, Regional Vice President of the Howard Hughes Corporation, to discuss plans for the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>January 26: The Columbia Association Board of Directors reviews plans for a proposed fountain in Symphony Woods and offers critiques of the design.</p>
<p class="small">Greisman, David.  “Reviews mixed for planned fountain.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 2 Feb. 2012, p. 1.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 6: The Columbia Association Board of Directors considers setting aside $1.4 million toward construction of a new CA headquarters, location to be determined.</p>
<p class="small">Greisman, David.  “CA could begin saving for new headquarters.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 9 Feb. 2012, p. 6.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 22: The Columbia Association Board of Directors includes a total of $1.6 million for Symphony Woods park development in CA’s 2013 and 2014 budgets.</p>
<p class="small">Greisman, David.  “CA adopts budget with spending cut.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 1 Mar. 2012, p. 8.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March: The Columbia Association submits a revised Final Development Plan for Symphony Woods Park to the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning, as part of Howard County’s new 16-step process for reviewing proposed developments in downtown Columbia.</p>
<p>The revised plan includes mention of proposed park facilities usable by visitors to both Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion, including an amphitheater, a pavilion, and a café, reflecting CA staff discussions with the Howard Hughes Corporation, owner of the Merriweather Post Pavilion property.</p>
<p class="small">Greisman, David.  “Symphony Woods plan awaits OK.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 11 Mar. 2012, p. 3G.</p>
<p class="small">Rector, Kevin.  “Downtown disconnect.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 1 Mar. 2012, p. 1.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>Land development review process for downtown Columbia revitalization</em>. Howard County, Maryland, Nov. 2010, <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=_oT1cawSChY%3d&amp;portalid=0">www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=_oT1cawSChY%3d&amp;portalid=0</a>.  Accessed 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 8: Michael McCall meets for the first time with Columbia Association President Phil Nelson to discuss plans for the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 12: The Columbia Association presents its Final Development Plan for Symphony Woods (FDP-DC-MSW-1) to the Howard County Planning Board.  The presentation focuses on plans for a fountain and a formal pathway system, requiring the removal of up to 64 trees. Future possibilities noted in the plan include a woodland garden, amphitheater, children’s activity area, and picnic area, as well as a café and other facilities that could be shared with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">McPherson, Lindsey.  “Planning Board weighs Symphony Woods plan.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 19 July 2012, p. 12.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>FDP-DC-MSW-1, Downtown Columbia, Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood, Final Development Plan, Town Center, Section 1, Area 1, Lot 23</em>. 3 May 2012, <a href="https://archive.org/details/FDP-DC-MSW-1">archive.org/detail/FDP-DC-MSW-1</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 19: The Howard County Planning Board considers the Final Development Plan for the Columbia Association proposal for Symphony Woods (FDP-DC-MSW-1) and approves it conditional on various changes being made, including rerouting paths to avoid tree removal and developing a plan for integration of Symphony Woods with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">McPherson, Lindsey.  “Phase one of Symphony Woods redesign approved.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 26 July 2012, p. 12.</p>
<p class="small">McPherson, Lindsey.  “Planning Board has suggestions for Symphony Woods changes.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 26 July 2012, p. 13.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>August 23: The Columbia Association Board of Directors hears a staff recommendation to put development plans for Symphony Woods on hold pending more information on Howard Hughes Corporation plans for redeveloping Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>CA Landscape Services Manager Jan Clark notes that Howard Hughes discarded its original conceptual plan for Merriweather Post Pavilion in favor of a new and significantly different concept plan more consistent with the overall downtown Columbia redevelopment plan.  CA President Phil Nelson adds that “It’s not just Symphony Woods, it’s not just Merriweather Post [Pavilion]. The county expects us to be planning for a [Merriweather-Symphony Woods] neighborhood design.”</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “CA weighs putting Symphony Woods projects on hold.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 30 Aug. 2012, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 6: The Howard County Planning Board issues its final decision and order relating to the Final Development Plan for the Columbia Association proposal for Symphony Woods (FDP-DC-MSW-1).  The decision and order requires the Columbia Association to revise the FDP to state that “tree removal shall be minimized by aligning paths around healthy trees and minimizing grading,” and to work with the Howard Hughes Corporation to develop a “coordinated plan for the [Merriweather-Symphony Woods] neighborhood” based on a “shared vision and design for Merriweather-Symphony Woods as a unique cultural and community amenity.”</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Planning Board.  <em>The Columbia Association, Petitioner before the Planning Board of Howard County, MD, Planning Board Case No. 394, Decision and Order</em>. Howard County, Maryland, 6 Sept. 2012, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Planning-Board-Decision-and-Order-9612.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Planning-Board-Decision-and-Order-9612.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 25: Columbia Association President Phil Nelson sends a letter to the CA Board of Directors recommending that they devote time in October and November to discussing how to proceed with development of Symphony Woods, including whether and how CA might participate in some sort of Trust partnership with Howard Hughes Corporation and Howard County for the Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood, and whether CA should try to develop a new plan for Symphony Woods taking into account plans for Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Nelson, Phil.  “Placing the Board Committee Process Temporarily on Hold.” Columbia Association, 25 Sept. 2012, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/10112-BOC-Staff-Item-re-Policy-Sessions.pdf">inartrust.org/s/10112-BOC-Staff-Item-re-Policy-Sessions.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October 5: Columbia Association President Phil Nelson sends a letter to the CA Board of Directors containing several questions for the board to discuss in the wake of the Planning Board’s “decision and caveats” and other factors affecting the future of the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood, including whether to continue with the previous plan or do something different.</p>
<p class="small">Nelson, Phil.  “Discussion cover memo regarding CA’s future involvement in the Symphony Woods/Merriweather Post Neighborhood.”  Columbia Association, 5 Oct. 2012.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October 11: The Columbia Association Board of Directors discusses whether to work with Howard Hughes Corporation and Howard County to create a separate organization (“trust”) to develop Symphony Woods.  In an informal “straw vote,” the board members present unanimously agree to explore the proposal.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “CA explores agreement to coordinate Symphony Woods redevelopment.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 18 Oct. 2012, p. 13.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, October 11, 2012, Approved: October 25, 2012</em>.  25 Oct. 2012, p. 3.</p>
<p class="small">Stack, Andy.  “Background on CA and Inner Arbor Trust.”  Blog of Dr. Chao Wu, 15 Sept. 2015, <a href="https://chaowu.org/2015/10/07/background-on-ca-board-inner-arbor/">chaowu.org/2015/10/07/background-on-ca-board-inner-arbor</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October: Columbia Association President Phil Nelson asks Michael McCall for advice regarding development of Symphony Woods, and McCall volunteers to create an alternative plan.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Letter to Jessamine Duvall. 27 May 2014, p. 3, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2013">2013</h2>
<p>The Columbia Association charges the Inner Arbor Trust with responsibility for creating a park in Symphony Woods, and the Trust goes to work amid controversy about CA’s decision.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January 18: The Columbia Association releases the first image of the Inner Arbor concept plan in preparation for the January 24 Board of Directors meeting.  Howard County Executive Ken Ulman expresses his support for the plan: “I have long viewed the property that is now Symphony Woods as a centerpiece and linchpin for downtown Columbia.  . . .  New York City has its Central Park.  Chicago has its Millennium Park.  And Columbia deserves and must have the same landmark status.”</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Columbia is planning an arts district.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 19 Jan. 2013, p. 2A.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Hearing set on new Symphony Woods plan.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 24 Jan. 2013, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>January 24: Michael McCall presents the Inner Arbor concept plan to the Columbia Association Board of Directors and CA President Phil Nelson presents his recommendations relating to the plan.  Council member Jen Terrasa attends the meeting and afterward expresses support for the project: “The design is pretty exciting. It’s something we would be proud to see.”</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Excitement, caution for Symphony Woods proposal.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 31 Jan. 2013, p. 6.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>January 31: Michael McCall again presents the Inner Arbor concept plan in a public meeting sponsored by the Columbia Association.</p>
<p class="small">Hirsch, Arthur.  “New proposal for Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 3 Feb. 2013, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Columbia Association hosts public unveiling of Symphony Woods plan.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 7 Feb. 2013, p. 8.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 7: Columbia Association President Phil Nelson sends a letter to the CA Board of Directors recommending that CA establish a separate organization to develop Symphony Woods according to the conceptual plan proposed by Michael McCall.</p>
<p class="small">Nelson, Phil.  “Formation of a Trust for Symphony Woods Development.” Columbia Association, 13 Feb. 2013, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/3-Formation_of_a_Trust_for_Symphony_Woods_Development.pdf">inartrust.org/s/3-Formation_of_a_Trust_for_Symphony_Woods_Development.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 13: Columbia Association President Phil Nelson publishes an updated version of his letter of February 7, with additional details on and clarifications regarding his recommendations for Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Nelson, Phil.  “Formation of a Trust for Symphony Woods Development.” Columbia Association, 13 Feb. 2013, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/3-Formation_of_a_Trust_for_Symphony_Woods_Development.pdf">inartrust.org/s/3-Formation_of_a_Trust_for_Symphony_Woods_Development.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 14: The Columbia Association Board of Directors votes 8&ndash;2 to establish the Inner Arbor Trust, grant it a perpetual easement to develop Symphony Woods, and provide $1.6 million in initial funding.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “CA board nearing vote on Symphony Woods plan.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 14 Feb. 2013, p. 4.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “‘Done deal’ vote advances Symphony Woods plan.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 21 Feb. 2013, p. 4.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, February 14, 2013, Approved: February 28, 2013</em>.  28 Feb. 2013, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Approved-BOD-Minutes-2013_02_14.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Approved-BOD-Minutes-2013_02_14.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March: Cy Paumier and associates plan to present a revised version of their park design, touting it as compatible with the Inner Arbor concept plan.  In response Michael McCall cites the Howard County Planning Board mandate to preserve trees by routing pathways around them.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “New pitch for Symphony Woods fountain, cafe.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 28 Mar. 2013, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>28 March: The Columbia Association Board of Directors elects Ed Coleman and Gregg Schwind as its representatives on the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors.  They join Phil Nelson, who holds an <em>ex officio</em> seat on the board as CA President.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Schwind and Coleman elected to Inner Arbor Trust.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 4 Apr. 2013, p. 16.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: The Inner Arbor plan becomes an issue in Columbia Association elections, with both supporters and opponents claiming victories.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Inner Arbor plan heats up CA election.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 11 Apr. 2013. p. 1.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “CA board members debate meaning of elections.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 2 May 2013, p. 16.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 25: Howard County Executive Ken Ulman reiterates his support for the Inner Arbor plan, and proposes $5 million in county funding for downtown Columbia arts and cultural programs and facilities.</p>
<p class="small">Ames, Blair.  “Ulman’s budget increases spending for schools, police.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 25 Apr. 2013, p. 6</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 10: The Inner Arbor Trust officially begins life as an organization with the election of a seven-member Board of Directors, the appointment of Michael McCall as President and CEO, and adoption of bylaws.  Besides Ed Coleman, Gregg Schwind, and Phil Nelson of the Columbia Association, other board members include Deborah Ellinghaus, Kent Humphries, Gill Wylie, and Beverly White-Seals.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Board of Inner Arbor Trust expands to seven members.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 30 May 2013, p. 13.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  “Inner Arbor Trust Inc., the not-for-profit developer of Symphony Woods, was formed in Columbia, Maryland.”  28 May 2013, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Press-Release-Bios-52813-0ydu.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Press-Release-Bios-52813-0ydu.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 23: As part of the FY2014 capital and expense budget (CB25-2013) the Howard County Council approves up to $3.5 million in funding for construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Council.  <em>Council Bill 25-2013, AN ACT adopting the current expense budget and the capital budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2013, and ending June 30, 2014, to be known as the Budget and Appropriation Ordinance of Howard County, Fiscal Year 2014</em>. Howard County, Maryland, May 2013, <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=202">apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=202</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June: Merriweather Post Pavilion is named the fourth-best amphitheater in the US by <em>Rolling Stone</em> magazine.</p>
<p class="small">Case, Wesley.  “Columbia pavilion named top venue.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 30 June 2013, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 20: Michael McCall presents the Inner Arbor concept plan to Leadership Howard County and discusses the selection of the design team, including initial members Martha Schwartz Partners and Mahan Rykiel Associates.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  “Introduction of Inner Arbor Trust to Leadership Howard County 9/20/13.”  <em>Vimeo</em>, 20 Sept. 2013, <a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">vimeo.com/78288327</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2013.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October: Martin Knott replaces Kent Humphries on the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Inner Arbor Trust Inc. replaces board member.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 31 Oct. 2013, p. 13.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October 30: Columbia celebrates the 50th anniversary of Jim Rouse’s announcement of his plan for Columbia, with development efforts underway or proposed at or near The Mall in Columbia and Lake Kittamaqundi, in Symphony Woods, and in the Crescent property south of Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Hirsch, Arthur.  “At 50, Columbia still a vision in progress.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 30 Oct. 2013, p. 1A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November: The Inner Arbor Trust announces the selection of landscape designer Martha Schwartz as the lead designer for phase 1 of the Inner Arbor project.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Inner Arbor hires designer for Symphony Woods.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 7 November 2013, p. 6.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 18: At a public meeting the Inner Arbor Trust introduces the selected design team (“designers of delight”) at a public meeting.  The team includes Martha Schwartz Partners, Marc Fornes of THEVERYMANY, Mimi Hoang and Eric Bunge of nArchitects, Arup, and Mahan Rykiel Associates.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Inner Arbor Trust introduces design team.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 21 Nov. 2013, p. 8.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  “Unabashed Designers of Delight.”  <em>Vimeo</em>, 18 Nov. 2013, <a href="https://vimeo.com/191568080">vimeo.com/191568080</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 2: The Inner Arbor Trust presents the new Inner Arbor plan to the public at a pre-submission meeting prior to presenting the plan to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel and submitting a Site Development Plan (SDP) to the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  Features include the Chrysalis amphitheater, the Butterfly guest services building, the “art of bounds” Caterpillar berm, the Picnic Table, the Play Maze, Word Art, and Letter Garden.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Praise, questions for Inner Arbor plans.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 5 Dec. 2013, p. 1.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Trust envisions Symphony Woods as Merriweather Park.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 5 Dec. 2013, p. 18.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  “Development of Symphony Woods: Site Development Plan (SDP) Public Meeting.” 2 Dec. 2013, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/A-Inner-Arbor-Trust-Community-Meeting-Minutespdf-copy.pdf">inartrust.org/s/A-Inner-Arbor-Trust-Community-Meeting-Minutespdf-copy.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 11: The Columbia Association executes a perpetual easement agreement with the Inner Arbor Trust, granting the Trust the right to develop Symphony Woods. (The agreement is later amended on March 14, 2014, to make minor corrections.)</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association and Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Amended and Restated Declaration of Restrictive Covenants and Easement Agreement</em>.  14 Mar. 2014, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/IAT-001.pdf">inartrust.org/s/IAT-001.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 18: The Inner Arbor Trust executes a $3.5 million grant agreement with Howard County.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Letter to Jessamine Duvall.  27 May 2014, p. 3, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 28: The Inner Arbor Trust submits its IRS Form 1023 application for tax exempt status.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Letter to Jessamine Duvall.  27 May 2014, p. 3, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2014">2014</h2>
<p>The Inner Arbor Trust finalizes the design for the first seven phases of the new park and successfully shepherds its plan through the Howard County planning process, as renovations for Merriweather Post Pavilion are planned and funded and Howard Hughes Corporation unveils its plans for developing the area around Symphony Woods.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January 31: The Inner Arbor Trust receives official 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status from the IRS.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  “A brief history of the Inner Arbor Trust (through October, 2015).” Oct. 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/A-Brief-History-of-the-Trust-October-2015-v3.pdf">inartrust.org/s/A-Brief-History-of-the-Trust-October-2015-v3.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February: Howard County Executive Ken Ulman presses the Howard Hughes Corporation on its plans for renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion, as required by the Downtown Columbia Plan and recommended by a report from consultants Ziger/Snead.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Ulman presses developer on future of Merriweather.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 13 Feb 2014, p. 6.</p>
<p class="small">Ziger/Snead. <em>Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update (Draft)</em>. Feb. 2014, <a href="/assets/texts/140214-draft-merriweather-physical-update-report.pdf">frankhecker.com/assets/texts/140214-draft-merriweather-physical-update-report.pdf</a>.  Accessed 26 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 4: The Inner Arbor Trust submits the Site Development Plan for the northern portion of Symphony Woods to the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Inner Arbor unveils plan.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 16 Feb. 2014, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 19: The Inner Arbor Trust publishes the final form of the Inner Arbor plan for the northern portion of Symphony Woods, adding the Merriground play area and the Merriweather Horns sound sculptures, and dropping the Play Maze, Word Art, and Letter Garden.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Playscape, audio added to Symphony Woods plan.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 20 Feb. 2014, p. 14.</p>
<p class="small">Holzberg, Janene.  “A sound vision for Columbia.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 2 Mar. 2014, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February 26: The Howard County Design Advisory Panel reviews the final Inner Arbor plan and unanimously supports it as submitted, with panel members praising the design.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Inner Arbor plans ‘wow’ panel.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 6 Mar. 2014. p. 13.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Design Advisory Panel.  “Meeting Summary, February 26, 2014.” Howard County, Maryland, 26 Feb. 2014, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/DAPsum-2014-2-26.pdf">inartrust.org/s/DAPsum-2014-2-26.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March: After noting the Inner Arbor Trust’s use of the name “Merriweather Park” in its submissions to the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning, the Columbia Association asks the Trust to retain the name Symphony Woods when referring to the property.  Subsequently the Inner Arbor Trust adopts the name “Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.”</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “CA vows to keep Symphony Woods name.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 27 Mar. 2014, p. 6.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 13: Howard County Executive Ken Ulman proposes to move up the date when ownership of Merriweather Post Pavilion will be transferred to the nonprofit Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission.  Soon afterwards the county and Howard Hughes Corporation begin discussions about pavilion renovations.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Bill would impact Merriweather ownership.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 20 Mar. 2014, p. 4.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Ulman shows optimism about Merriweather.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 27 Mar. 2014, p. 28.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 26. The Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors appoints board member and local businessperson Martin Knott as Chair of the Trust.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Letter to Jessamine Duvall.  27 May 2014, p. 3, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 31: At a pre-submission community meeting the Howard Hughes Corporation presents plans for developing the Crescent property to the south and west of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Urban streetscape planned for crescent property.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 20 Mar. 2014, p. 6.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Downtown plans draw concerns about traffic and tall buildings.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 3 Apr. 2014, p. 16.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: The Inner Arbor Trust releases a report on its efforts to improve the environmental health of Symphony Woods, including planting 200 new trees (to replace 31 trees to be removed) and restoring stream beds in the eastern part of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Inner Arbor plans include adding trees.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 17 Apr. 2014, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 10: The Columbia Association selects Nancy McCord to be one of its two representatives on the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors, replacing Ed Coleman.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “McCord elected to Inner Arbor Trust.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 1 May 2014, p. 12.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association. <em><a href="https://www.columbiaassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Minutes_caboardofdirectors-39.pdf">Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, Held: April 10, 2014, Approved: April 24, 2014</a></em>. 24 Apr. 2014, pp. 4-5.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 14: Howard County, Howard Hughes Corporation, and the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission sign a memorandum of understanding regarding a five-year, $19 million renovation plan for Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Agreement heralds Merriweather renovation.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 22 May 2014, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 26: The Inner Arbor plan again becomes an issue in Columbia Association elections marked by low turnout.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Ketley, Lein, Schwind win Columbia elections.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 1 May 2014, p. 13.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 28: The Inner Arbor Trust formally submits its Site Development Plan (SDP) to the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Letter to Jessamine Duvall.  27 May 2014, p. 3, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Letter-on-the-Progress-and-History-of-the-Inner-Arbor-Trust-140527.pdf</a>.  Accessed 7 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 21: The Howard County Council approves County Executive Ken Ulman’s recommendation of an additional $1.5 million of funding for the Inner Arbor Trust in the form of a challenge grant.  The Council also approves $10 million in funding for Merriweather Post Pavilion renovations and the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Agreement heralds Merriweather renovation.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 22 May 2014, p. 4.</p>
<p class="small">Yeager, Amanda.  “County Council passes 2015 budget.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 25 May 2014, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Council.  <em>Council Bill 24-2014, AN ACT adopting the current expense budget and the capital budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2014 and ending June 30, 2015, to be known as the Annual Budget and Appropriation Ordinance of Howard County, Fiscal Year 2015</em>. Howard County, Maryland, May 2014, <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=800">apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=800</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 28: The Boards of Directors of the Columbia Association and the Inner Arbor Trust hold a joint meeting to discuss the progress of the Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Columbia Association, Inner Arbor meet.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 1 June 2014, p. 4G.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Symphony Woods plan subject of gathering.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 5 June 2014, p. 15.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June: Howard County Executive Ken Ulman joins with musician Jack Johnson to preview plans for renovations at Merriweather Post Pavilion, as newly-arrived Howard Hughes Corporation Vice President Greg Fitchitt gets credit for helping to negotiate the plans with the county, and Howard Hughes signs a development agreement with the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission, the future owners of the pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Merriweather renovation plans rolled out.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 12 June 2014. p. 4.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Fitchitt new face of Howard Hughes.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 12 June 2014, p. 8.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Howard Hughes, arts commission sign Merriweather deal.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 26 June 2014, p. 8.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 2: Milton Matthews becomes the new President of the Columbia Association, replacing Phil Nelson.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Partnerships key for new CA president.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 10 July 2014, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June 12: The Columbia Association Board of Directors discusses whether the current form of the Inner Arbor plan is a “material change” from that described in the easement granted the Inner Arbor Trust.  By a 7&ndash;3 vote the board decides that it is not.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association. <em><a href="https://www.columbiaassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Minutes_caboardofdirectors-34.pdf">Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, Held: June 12, 2014, Approved: June 26, 2014</a></em>.  26 June 2014, pp. 2, 4-5.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July 10: After a presentation by Michael McCall of the Inner Arbor Trust, the Columbia Association Board of Directors votes 6&ndash;4 to endorse the Inner Arbor Plan as currently conceived.</p>
<p class="small">Yeager, Amanda.  “CA endorses Symphony Woods plan.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 17 July 2014, p. 6.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association. <em><a href="https://www.columbiaassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Minutes_caboardofdirectors-32.pdf">Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, Held: July 10, 2014, Approved: July 24, 2014</a></em>.  24 July 2014, p. 3.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>August 7: Karen Newell is elected to the Inner Arbor Board of Directors.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 9 Jan. 2016.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October: The  Boards of Directors of the Columbia Association and the Inner Arbor Trust hold another joint meeting to discuss the progress of the Inner Arbor plan, including phasing of park development, fundraising, and negotiation of an agreement with I.M.P., the operators of Merriweather Post Pavilion, for use of the Chrysalis amphitheater.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Symphony Woods development nears start.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 23 Oct. 2014, p. 8.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 4: Allan Kittleman is elected as Howard County Executive.  Incumbents Calvin Ball, Greg Fox, Mary Kay Sigaty, and Jen Terrasa are re-elected to the Howard County Council, and are joined by newly elected council member Jon Weinstein.</p>
<p class="small">Wood, Pamela.  “Republican Kittleman beats Watson in executive race.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 5 Nov. 2014, p. 1A.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 20: After delaying its decision a week to allow more time for public testimony, the Howard County Planning Board unanimously approves the Inner Arbor Trust’s Site Development Plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods (SDP-14-073).  The Planning Board approves the design concepts, uses, and locations of park features for all seven proposed phases, and fully approves phases 1 and 2 (including the Chrysalis amphitheater) for construction.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Planning Board tables Inner Arbor decision.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 13 Nov. 2014, p. 4.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Initial Inner Arbor phases approved.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 23 Nov. 2014, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Inner Arbor wins Planning Board approval.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 27 Nov. 2014, p. 6.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>SDP-14-073, Downtown Columbia, Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood, Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods Phase 1 &amp; Future Phases 2-7</em>. <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-1-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Part-1-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-2-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1-copy-2.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Part-2-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1-copy-2.pdf</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-3-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Part-3-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-4-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Part-4-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-5-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Part-5-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2015">2015</h2>
<p>The Inner Arbor Trust lays the groundwork for the start of Chrysalis construction and continues working with others to integrate Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January 22: The Howard County Planning Board approves changes to the site development plan for renovations to Merriweather Post Pavilion.  Inner Arbor Trust President Michael McCall testifies in support of the plan: “The park and the amphitheater will knit together well.”</p>
<p class="small">Lavoie, Luke.  “Merriweather renovations poised to start.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 29 Jan. 2015, p. 10.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 6: The Inner Arbor Trust enters into a long-term operating agreement with It’s My Amphitheater, Inc., relating to joint use of Merriweather Post Pavilion and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.  Under the agreement I.M.A. agrees to compensate the Trust for future use of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods for Merriweather Post Pavilion events.  The agreement also makes public areas of Merriweather Post Pavilion accessible to visitors outside of pavilion events.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust and I.M.A. <em>License, Easement and Operating Agreement</em>. 6 March, 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/IAT-IMA-Operating-Agreement-Executed-31615.pdf">inartrust.org/s/IAT-IMA-Operating-Agreement-Executed-31615.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March 19: The Howard County Planning Board approves the Final Development Plan for the Howard Hughes Corporation’s project to develop the Crescent property south and west of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Yeager, Amanda.  “Crescent plan given nod by Planning Board.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 26 Mar. 2015, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: The first phase of renovations at Merriweather Post Pavilion is well underway.</p>
<p class="small">Ames, Blair.  “Let the music begin.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 23 Apr. 2015, p. 28.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 15: Dave Sciamarelli is elected to the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 9 Jan. 2016.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 25: Columbia Association board elections again see low turnout.  Any controversies over Symphony Woods go unmentioned in newspaper accounts.</p>
<p class="small">Yeager, Amanda.  “Boulton, Evans win contested CA races.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 30 Apr. 2015, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 22: At the request of Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman, the Howard County Council approves $1.4M for the Inner Arbor Trust in support of construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater and related purposes, as part of the FY16 Expense and Capital Budget (CB23-2015).</p>
<p class="small">Yeager, Amanda.  “Kittleman proposes $1B operating budget.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 23 Apr. 2015, p. 6.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Council.  <em>Council Bill 23-2015, AN ACT adopting the current expense budget and the capital budget for the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2015 and ending June 30, 2016, to be known as the Annual Budget and Appropriation Ordinance of Howard County, Fiscal Year 2016</em>. Howard County, Maryland, 22 May 2015, <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=1390">apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=1390</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 27: The Inner Arbor Trust enters into a reciprocal easement agreement with Howard Hughes Corporation subsidiaries Merriweather Post Business Trust and Howard Research and Development relating to joint use of Merriweather Post Pavilion and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust, Merriweather Post Business Trust, and Howard Research and Development Corporation. <em>Reciprocal Easement Agreement</em>. 27 May 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/IAT-MPBT-HRD-REA-HoCo-Recorded-60315-copy.pdf">inartrust.org/s/IAT-MPBT-HRD-REA-HoCo-Recorded-60315-copy.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 28: The Inner Arbor Trust appoints Nina Basu as General Counsel and Kirsten Coombs as treasurer.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication. 9 Jan. 2016.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>August: After years of discussion about where to locate a new headquarters for the Columbia Association (including the possibility of building one on CA-owned land in Symphony Woods), CA moves to leased space in an office building off Broken Land Parkway.</p>
<p class="small">Yeager, Amanda.  “Columbia Association to move its headquarters.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 20 Aug. 2015, p. 12.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September: After a competitive bidding process the Inner Arbor Trust selects Whiting-Turner as general contractor for all Chrysalis construction except for the Chrysalis shell itself (to be fabricated and installed by A. Zahner Company).</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  “September, 2015 Chrysalis Development Report.” 1 Oct. 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-October-2015.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-October-2015.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 1: The Inner Arbor Trust enters into a licensing agreement with Howard Hughes Corporation subsidiary Merriweather Post Business Trust for use of the word mark “Merriweather” in connection with Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust and Merriweather Post Business Trust.  <em>Trademark License Agreement</em>.  1 Sept. 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Trademark-License-Agreement-Merriweatehr-Hughes-Executed.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Trademark-License-Agreement-Merriweatehr-Hughes-Executed.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 3: The Howard County Planning Board approves FDP-DC-MSW-1A, a comprehensive Final Development Plan for the Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood submitted jointly by the Inner Arbor Trust and subsidiaries of the Howard Hughes Corporation.  The plan modifies the previous FDP-DC-MSW-1 for Symphony Woods to be consistent with the previously-approved Site Development Plan SDP-14-073 for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, and improve integration of the park with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>Technical Staff Report, Merriweather Symphony Woods Neighborhood, Planning Board Hearing of September 3, 2015, Case No. PB 416</em>.  Howard County, Maryland, <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=LK3Z4voZgec%3d&amp;portalid=0">www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=LK3Z4voZgec%3d&amp;portalid=0</a>.  Accessed 11 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Planning Board.  “Planning Board Past Meetings.”  Howard County, Maryland, 3 Sept. 2015, <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/Departments/Planning-and-Zoning/Boards-and-Commissions/Planning-Board">www.howardcountymd.gov/Departments/Planning-and-Zoning/Boards-and-Commissions/Planning-Board</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 9: The Howard County Design Advisory Panel considers plans for further renovations to Merriweather Post Pavilion, including a raised roof and a larger stage house, and offers some minor suggestions.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Design Advisory Panel.  <em>Meeting Summary, September 9, 2015</em>.  Howard County, Maryland, 9 Sept. 2015, <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/DesktopModules/DnnSharp/SearchBoost/FileDownload.ashx?file=11432&amp;sb-inst=9164">http://www.howardcountymd.gov/DesktopModules/DnnSharp/SearchBoost/FileDownload.ashx?file=11432&amp;sb-inst=9164</a>.  Accessed 11 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 12: The Inner Arbor Trust holds a groundbreaking ceremony for the Chrysalis amphitheater.</p>
<p class="small">Michaels, Andrew.  “Amphitheater underway in Symphony Woods.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 17 Sept. 2015, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September 18: The Inner Arbor Trust executes a new amendment to its grant agreement with Howard County to reflect the additional funding of $1.4 million from the county.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County, Maryland, and Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Amendment Three to Grant Agreement</em>.  18 Sept. 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Amendment-3-to-Grant-Agreement-9-18-2015.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Amendment-3-to-Grant-Agreement-9-18-2015.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October: Howard County issues permits to the Inner Arbor Trust for grading of the Chrysalis site and construction of the foundation.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  “October, 2015 Chrysalis Development Report.”  1 November 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-November-2015.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-November-2015.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 3: The Inner Arbor Trust sponsors the “Math of Architecture and Architecture of Math” public event with Joni Newkirk of Integrated Insight, Inc., and Bill Zahner of A. Zahner Co.</p>
<p class="small">Michaels, Andrew.  “Pair join Merriweather Park design team.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 29 Oct. 2015, p. 17.</p>
<p class="small">Holzberg Janene.  “Chrysalis is seen as a huge draw.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 8 Nov. 2015, p. 1G.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  “Math of Architecture, Architecture of Math, November 3, 2015.”  <em>Vimeo</em>, 3 Nov. 2015, <a href="https://vimeo.com/155286541">vimeo.com/155286541</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2015.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November&ndash;December: Whiting-Turner continues construction work on the Chrysalis foundation, including constructing a cistern to control storm water runoff, pouring “mud mats” for the foundation, and laying underground electrical conduits.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>November &amp; December, 2015 Chrysalis Development Report</em>.  20 Dec. 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-November-2015-3oxn.pdf">http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-November-2015-3oxn.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>December 17: The Howard County Planning Board approves SDP-16-018, a joint site development plan for improvements to Merriweather Post Pavilion and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, including shared restrooms, accessible paths, and handicap parking spaces.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>November &amp; December, 2015 Chrysalis Development Report</em>.  20 Dec. 2015, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-November-2015-3oxn.pdf">http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-November-2015-3oxn.pdf</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning.  <em>Technical Staff Report, Merriweather Post Pavilion and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, Downtown Columbia - Merriweather Symphony Woods Neighborhood, Planning Board Meeting of December 17, 2015, Case No.: SDP-16-018</em>.  Howard County, Maryland, 3 Dec. 2015, <a href="https://www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=Hylr2WVK7HA%3d&amp;portalid=0">www.howardcountymd.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=Hylr2WVK7HA%3d&amp;portalid=0</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust and Merriweather Post Business Trust.  <em>SDP-16-018, Site Development Plan, Merriweather Post Pavilion &amp; Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, Town Center, Section 1, Lots 13 &amp; 23, Redevelopment Phase 2 &amp; 3</em>.  Jan. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/MPBT-IAT-Joint-SDP-16-018.pdf">inartrust.org/s/MPBT-IAT-Joint-SDP-16-018.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2016">2016</h2>
<p>Chrysalis construction proceeds apace in concert with Merriweather Post Pavilion renovations.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>January: The Inner Arbor Trust sponsors an event “Let there be light” featuring the work of Arup lighting designer Star Davis.  Unfortunately, it is cancelled due to a major snowstorm.</p>
<p class="small">Holzberg, Janene.  “At Symphony Woods, lighting design comes alive.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 28 Jan. 2016, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>February: Construction of the Chrysalis is well underway, with completion estimated for the spring of 2017.  Whiting-Turner is placing rebar and pouring concrete for the piers and walls of the subfloor, while Arup and Zahner are preparing “shop drawings” (in digital form) for the steel framework and aluminum skin.</p>
<p class="small">Michaels, Andrew.  “Chrysalis construction making headway.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 25 Feb. 2016, p. 4.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Report on the Chrysalis Development</em>.  15 Feb. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-February-2016.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-February-2016.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>March: The steel tubes making up the steel framework of the Chrysalis are fabricated by the Walters Group, as Whiting-Turner continues work on the walls and piers of the concrete subfloor.  Meanwhile renovations at Merriweather Post Pavilion continue as the stage house is replaced.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Report on the Chrysalis Development</em>.  15 Mar. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-March-2016.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-March-2016.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Michaels, Andrew.  “Merriweather revamping sound monitoring.”  <em>Columbia Flier</em>, 10 Mar. 2016, p. 4.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: Zahner fabricates the ZEPPS panels and aluminum shingles of the Chrysalis skin, while Whiting-Turner nears completion of the concrete subfloor.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Report on the Chrysalis Development</em>.  15 Apr. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-April-2016.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-April-2016.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 3: The Inner Arbor Trust signs an agreement with Howard County for use of the Chrysalis during Wine in the Woods and other events.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust and Howard County, Maryland.  <em>Chrysalis Use Agreement</em>.  3 May 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Chrysalis-Use-Agreement-Fully-Executed-51116.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Chrysalis-Use-Agreement-Fully-Executed-51116.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 12: The Columbia Association Board of Directors selects Lin Eagan and Gregg Schwind to be its representatives on the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors.</p>
<p class="small">Columbia Association.  <em>Minutes of the Board of Directors Meeting, Held: May 12, 2016, Approved: May 26, 2016</em>.  26 May 2016, p. 2.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>June: Metropolitan Walters, part of the Walters Group, erects the steel framework of the Chrysalis while skin fabrication continues at Zahner.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Chrysalis Construction</em>.  15 July 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-June-update-copy.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-June-update-copy.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>July: Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman proposes to provide $90 million via a “tax increment financing” plan to fund development of infrastructure for downtown Columbia, including a parking garage to support visitors to Merriweather Post Pavilion and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Waseem, Fatimah.  “Project finance plan offered.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 3 July 2016, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>August: Metropolitan Walters completes erection of the steel framework of the Chrysalis. ZEPPS panels from Zahner arrive on the construction site and are beginning to be installed.  Meanwhile Howard Hughes Corporation’s first building in the Crescent development nears its opening date as the second building is under construction.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Chrysalis Construction</em>.  15 Aug. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-August-update.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-August-update.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Waseem, Fatimah.  “$41M Columbia office building to open in ’17.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 21 Aug. 2016, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>September: Zahner continues installing ZEPPS panels, including fabricating some panels on site.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Chrysalis Construction</em>.  15 Sept. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-September-Update-copy.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-September-Update-copy.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>October: Zahner installs the last of the ZEPPS panels on the steel framework of the Chrysalis, and begins installing the green aluminum shingles forming the outer surface of the Chrysalis skin.  The Howard County Council considers a public financing plan to help fund infrastructure improvements for downtown Columbia, including a new 2,545-space parking garage to serve Merriweather Post Pavilion and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Chrysalis Construction</em>.  15 Oct. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-September-Update-draggedjpg-4dbe.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-September-Update-draggedjpg-4dbe.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Wood, Pamela.  “Howard weighs financing option for Columbia plan.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 11 Oct. 2016, p. 1A.</p>
<p class="small">Waseem, Fatima.  “TIF for core under scrutiny.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 16 Oct. 2016, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November: More than half of the surface of the Chrysalis has been covered with green aluminum shingles, with Zahner projected to finish the work in December.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>Chrysalis Construction</em>.  15 Nov. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-October-Update-sm.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Chrysalis-October-Update-sm.pdf</a>.  Accessed 11 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 2: Mary Ann Scully, CEO of Howard Bank, is elected to the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors, as Howard Bank pledges to contribute $50,000 to the Trust.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  “The Inner Arbor Trust unanimously elects Howard Bank’s CEO Mary Ann Scully to its Board of Directors.”  17 Nov. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Mary-Ann-Sculley-Press-Release-November-17-2016.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Mary-Ann-Sculley-Press-Release-November-17-2016.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
<p class="small">Inner Arbor Trust.  <em>November 2, 2016 Board Minutes</em>.  2 Nov. 2016, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-November-2-2016-Minutes.pdf">inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-November-2-2016-Minutes.pdf</a>.  Accessed 9 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>November 30: Howard Hughes Corporation transfers ownership of Merriweather Post Pavilion to the nonprofit Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission.</p>
<p class="small">Waseem, Fatimah.  “Merriweather Post eyes its new future.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 4 Dec. 2016, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2017">2017</h2>
<p>The Chrysalis comes to life and a new era begins for the Inner Arbor Trust.</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>March 18: At the recommendation of Michael McCall, the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors elects Trust General Counsel Nina Basu to succeed McCall as President and CEO of the Trust, effective May 1.  The board also elects Eric Metzman as a new board member, replacing retiring original board member Gill Wylie.</p>
<p class="small">McCall, Michael.  Personal communication.  27 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April: The Maryland General Assembly approves a $150,000 grant to the Inner Arbor Trust in support of the Chrysalis.</p>
<p class="small">Yeager, Amanda.  “Session makes a local impact.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, Howard ed., 16 Apr. 2017, p. 1G.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>April 22: The Chrysalis is dedicated with a public ceremony and concert.</p>
<p class="small">Holzberg, Janene.  “Park by day, public sculpture by night.”  <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, 16 Apr. 2017, p. 1 (A&amp;E).</p>
<p class="small">Janney, Elizabeth.  “Chrysalis dedicated to people of Columbia.”  <em>Columbia Patch</em>, 24 Apr. 2017, <a href="https://patch.com/maryland/columbia/chrysalis-dedicated-people-columbia">patch.com/maryland/columbia/chrysalis-dedicated-people-columbia</a>.  Accessed 8 May 2017.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>May 1: Michael McCall steps down as President and CEO of the Inner Arbor Trust, after successfully leading the Trust through its formation as a nonprofit organization and achievement of 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status, the selection of a design team and creation of a detailed plan for the northern portion of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, the approval of a seven-phase Site Development Plan by Howard County (including concepts and locations for all park features), the execution of legal agreements with the Columbia Association, Howard County, the Howard Hughes Corporation, and It’s My Amphitheater, Inc., and the completion of phase 1 of the Site Development Plan, including the construction of the Chrysalis.  He is succeeded by former Trust General Counsel Nina Basu.</p>
<p class="small">Basu, Nina.  “Started working at Inner Arbor Trust.”  <em>Facebook</em>, 1 May 2017, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ninabasu/timeline/story?ut=32&amp;wstart=-2051193600&amp;wend=2147483647&amp;hash=10155301230471913&amp;pagefilter=3&amp;ustart=1&amp;pnref=story">www.facebook.com/ninabasu/timeline/story?ut=32&amp;wstart=-2051193600&amp;wend=2147483647&amp;hash=10155301230471913&amp;pagefilter=3&amp;ustart=1&amp;pnref=story</a>.   Accessed 26 May 2017.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-completed.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-completed-embed.png"
         alt="The completed Chrysalis, viewed from the beta stage.(Click for a higher-resolution version.) Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The completed Chrysalis, viewed from the beta stage.(Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>In writing the “Creating the Chrysalis” series and this timeline, I consulted multiple sources both online and offline.  Unfortunately almost all of the online sources available have one or more flaws, including being incomplete, overly expensive, lacking adequate search facilities, or being prone to broken links as the underlying sites are revamped.  At times my only option was to manually scroll through microfilm at the Central Branch of the Howard County Library System.</p>
<p>Here are the main information sources of interest:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p><em><a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/">Baltimore Sun</a></em>. The <em>Sun</em> has multiple ways to retrieve its articles:</p>
<ul>
<li>The standard <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/search/"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> search page</a> linked to
from the main newspaper web site includes results for the <em>Columbia Flier</em> and <em>Howard County Times</em>, but will only return results within the last couple of years.  It also lacks critical features like being able to search within a date range; even the function to sort results by date is broken.</li>
<li>A <a href="https://www.google.com/#q=site:articles.baltimoresun.com">Google search against the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> site</a> will typically return many more useful results than searching on the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> site itself.</li>
<li>The <a href="http://baltimoresun.newspapers.com/">official <em>Baltimore Sun</em> archives</a> (maintained by <a href="https://www.newspapers.com/about/">Newspapers.com</a>) has excellent historical coverage (back to 1837) and can be used to obtain full images of the printed papers, including photographs and illustrations.  Searches can be restricted to a date range and results sorted by date. Snippets of the results are viewable at no charge; full pages may be viewed for $8 per month for an unlimited number of searches.  Indexing of articles is generally excellent; however, in some cases articles cannot be found using the most straightforward query but will show up using a slightly different query.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p><em><a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/">Columbia Flier</a></em> and <em><a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/">Howard County Times</a></em>.  The archives for the <em>Columbia Flier</em> and <em>Howard County Times</em> are combined with <em>Baltimore Sun</em> archives for recent years.  For articles before that time there is no option at present except to look for articles on microfilm.</p>
<p>There used to be a site archives.explorehoward.com that provided access to earlier articles.  However it no longer exists, and its contents are not archived anywhere else as far as I know.  I am also not aware of any separate online index to the contents of the <em>Columbia Flier</em> and <em>Howard County Times</em>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p><em><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/">Washington Post</a></em>. As with the <em>Sun</em>, there are multiple approaches to finding <em>Post</em> articles:</p>
<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/newssearch/"><em>Washington Post</em> search function</a> retrieves articles back to 2005.  Its advanced search option allows sorting results by date (in descending order only).</li>
<li>The official <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/washingtonpost/search.html"><em>Washington Post</em> archive site</a> provides two options, searching articles from 1877 to 1995, or from 1987 to the present; both options have an “advanced search” function that allows searching a date range and sorting results by date.  The site provides article previews at no charge; prices for the full articles range from $4 per article to just over $1 depending on how many you purchase.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p><a href="https://www.columbiaassociation.org/about-us/board-of-directors/">Columbia Association records of Board of Directors meetings</a>, including minutes, agendas, and board packets (i.e., material provided to the board in advance of meetings).  At present only records back to January 2014 are available online. Earlier records have been removed from the main CA site and links to them no longer work.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The <a href="http://inartrust.org/">Inner Arbor Trust web site</a> contains many documents of interest scattered around the site. The two main document areas are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://inartrust.org/the-making-of-the-trust/">The Making of the Trust</a>” contains links to several documents of interest for the period leading up to the formation of the Inner Arbor Trust.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://inartrust.org/corporate-documents/">Corporate Documents</a>” contains links to several documents of interest for the period after the formation of the Inner Arbor Trust.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>Various web sites maintained by General Growth Properties and Howard Hughes Corporation, including the columbiatowncenter.info and <a href="http://www.downtowncolumbia.com/">downtowncolumbia.com</a> sites.  Unfortunately, the former site is no longer online, and many of its pages were not archived.  However the following pages at the Internet Archive may be of interest:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20110616031507/http://www.columbiatowncenter.info:80/MasterPlan/timeline.aspx">A history of the Downtown Columbia Project</a>” (formerly “A history of the Columbia Town Center project”) contains a timeline of activities related to GGP and Howard Hughes planning for downtown Columbia from May 2005 to December 2010.</li>
<li>Various sections of GGP’s proposed 2008 General Plan Amendment, including the following:
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090218225300/http://columbiatowncenter.info:80/pdf/manyvoices/2_special_place.pdf">Making a special place</a>” (archived 19 Feb. 2009)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090219001116/http://columbiatowncenter.info:80/pdf/manyvoices/3_moving_connecting.pdf">Moving and connecting people</a> (archived 19 Feb. 2009)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090219024442/http://columbiatowncenter.info:80/pdf/manyvoices/4_environment.pdf">Sustaining the environment</a>” (archived 19 Feb. 2009)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090219024548/http://columbiatowncenter.info:80/pdf/manyvoices/5_growth.pdf">Balancing and phasing growth</a>”  (archived 19 Feb. 2009)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090219081431/http://columbiatowncenter.info:80/pdf/manyvoices/6_everyone.pdf">Involving everyone</a>”  (archived 19 Feb. 2009)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091007112052/http://www.columbiatowncenter.info:80/pdf/manyvoices/7_exhibits.pdf">Exhibits</a>” (archived 7 Oct. 2009)</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>Columbia and Howard County blogs. The following blogs include material from people active in the controversies around development of downtown Columbia and/or Symphony Woods.</p>
<ul>
<li>Coale, Tom.  <em>HoCo Rising</em>. 2006&ndash;present, <a href="http://www.hocorising.com">www.hocorising.com</a>.  Tom Coale is a former CA board member.</li>
<li>Coren, Evan, and others.  <em>Howard County Blog</em>. 2006&ndash;2009, <a href="http://howardcountyblog.blogspot.com">howardcountyblog.blogspot.com</a>.  Evan Coren is a former CA board member.</li>
<li>Dunn, Brian.  <em>Columbia 2.0</em>. 2008&ndash;present, <a href="https://columbia2.wordpress.com">columbia2.wordpress.com</a>.  Brian Dunn is a former CA board member.  This blog also served as the website for the advocacy group Columbia 2.0.</li>
<li>Hecker, Frank.  <em>Frank Hecker</em> blog. 2004&ndash;present, <a href="https://frankhecker.com">frankhecker.com</a>.  Frank Hecker is the author of this series.</li>
<li>Lane, Dennis.  <em>Tales of Two Cities</em>.  2006&ndash;2013, <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com">writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com</a>.  Dennis Lane was a commercial real estate developer and prominent local blogger.</li>
<li>McCready, Julia.  <em>Village Green/Town<sup>2</sup>
</em>.  2011&ndash;present, <a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com">villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com</a>.  Julia McCready is a former member of the Oakland Mills Village board.</li>
<li>Santos, Bill.  <em>Columbia Compass</em>.  2006&ndash;2012, <a href="https://columbiacompass.blogspot.com">columbiacompass.blogspot.com</a>, and 2012&ndash;2014, <a href="http://columbiacompass.weebly.com/blog">columbiacompass.weebly.com/blog</a>.  Bill Santos is a former member of the Howard County Planning Board.</li>
<li>Woodcock, Bill.  <em>The 53</em>.  2008&ndash;present, <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/%5D%5Bt53%5D.">53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers</a>.  Bill Woodcock is a former member of the Oakland Mills Village board.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>Web sites of Columbia and Howard County advocacy groups.  Most of these are out of date and many are no longer available on the web, except for fragmentary snapshots preserved by the Internet Archive.  Note that I have included only organizations significantly involved in advocacy activities relating to Symphony Woods, Merriweather Post Pavilion, or downtown Columbia development in general.</p>
<ul>
<li><em>Alliance for a Better Columbia</em>.  <a href="https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20141218231754/http://www.abettercolumbia.org/">abettercolumbia.org</a> (archived 18 Dec. 2014).  Founded by Paul Amico and Alex Hekimian in October 1987.</li>
<li><em>Bring Back the Vision</em>.  <a href="https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20080806232333/http://www.bringbackthevision.org:80/">bringbackthevision.org</a> (archived 6 Aug. 2008).  Founded by Emily Lincoln in 2007.</li>
<li><em>Coalition for Columbia’s Downtown</em>.  <a href="http://www.coalitionforcolumbiasdowntown.org/AboutUs.html">www.coalitionforcolumbiasdowntown.org/AboutUs.html</a>.  Founded by Alan Klein in October 2006.</li>
<li><em>Columbia 2.0</em>.  <a href="https://columbia2.wordpress.com">columbia2.wordpress.com</a>.  Founded by David Yungmann, Katie Dunn, and Mac Cassity in July 2008.</li>
<li><em>Columbia Tomorrow</em>.  <a href="https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20101210064105/http://columbiatomorrow.org:80/">columbiatomorrow.org</a> (archived 10 Dec. 2012).  Founded by Jud Malone in September 2008.</li>
<li><em>Howard County Citizens Association</em>.  <a href="http://howardcountyhcca.org">howardcountyhcca.org</a>.  Founded in 1961.</li>
<li><em>New City Alliance</em>.  <a href="https://www.facebook.com/NewCityAlliance">www.facebook.com/NewCityAlliance</a>.  Founded by David Yungmann in October 2009. The group also maintained a web site <a href="https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20110921004345/http://newcityalliance.org">newcityalliance.org</a> before moving to Facebook.</li>
<li><em>Save Merriweather</em>.  <a href="http://www.savemerriweather.org">savemerriweather.org</a>.  Founded by Justin Carlson and Ian Kennedy in June 2003.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>In FDP-DC-MSW-1, the final development plan submitted by the Columbia Association in 2012, the size of the core Symphony Woods property (Columbia Town Center, Section 1, Area 1, Lot 23) was given as 36.2326 acres.  However there is an additional thin strip of CA-owned land bordering Little Patuxent Parkway (Columbia Town Center, Section 1, Area 1, Lot 9B), currently occupied by the multi-use parkway.  Its size was given as 1.134 acres, for a total of 37.3666 acres between the two areas.  FDP-DC-MSW-1 listed the size of the Merriweather Post Pavilion property as 10.1984 acres.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>A later source makes it clear that only a small portion of the petting zoo was on the CA-owned Symphony Woods property.  The vast majority was on Rouse Company property adjacent to Symphony Woods.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>Although some sources refer to the Renaissance Festival as being located in Symphony Woods, this source and context in other sources make it clear that the festival was more likely held primarily or entirely on Rouse Company property adjacent to Symphony Woods.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>The sources for this and other items refer to the Columbia Council.  For consistency and clarity this timeline refers instead to the Columbia Association Board of Directors, since for all practical purposes the two groups are the same.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Details, details</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/04/21/creating-the-chrysalis-details-details/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 21 Apr 2017 11:40:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/04/21/creating-the-chrysalis-details-details/</guid>
      <description>Getting the details right on the Chrysalis, featuring Living Design Lab and Mahan Rykiel Associates.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-pickets-interior.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-pickets-interior-embed.png"
         alt="Wooden pickets at the rear of the Chrysalis, forming guard rails for the stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The perforated aluminum sheets in the background cover and protect the ZEPPS panels closest to the stage floor. Image © 2017 Living Design Lab; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Wooden pickets at the rear of the Chrysalis, forming guard rails for the stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The perforated aluminum sheets in the background cover and protect the ZEPPS panels closest to the stage floor. Image © 2017 Living Design Lab; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Getting the details right on the Chrysalis, featuring Living Design Lab and Mahan Rykiel Associates.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>Previous articles in this series discussed the design, fabrication and installation of the steel frame and skin of the Chrysalis, as well as the construction of the “subfloor” to which the steel frame is attached. This article completes that discussion, focusing on various details of the Chrysalis design and construction not previously covered. It features the work of Living Design Lab, architect for the Chrysalis, and Mahan Rykiel Associates, the landscape architect.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-ramp.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-ramp-embed.png"
         alt="The wooden boardwalk and ramp leading to the Chrysalis stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The boardwalk abuts the clay pavers in front of the stage where the traffic cones are placed. Image © 2017 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The wooden boardwalk and ramp leading to the Chrysalis stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The boardwalk abuts the clay pavers in front of the stage where the traffic cones are placed. Image © 2017 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="living-design-lab">Living Design Lab</h2>
<p>The “Chrysalis Team” page on the merriweatherpark.org web site includes a number of people and companies previously discussed in this series, including Marc Fornes and THEVERYMANY, Arup, Zahner, and Whiting-Turner. Right near the top of the list you’ll find listed Living Design Lab as architect.</p>
<p>To quote Wikipedia, an architect “plans, designs, and reviews the construction of buildings.”  Whether or not there’s a separate designer on the project (as there was for the Chrysalis), ultimately the architect is responsible for the project being able to meet the needs of the people who are going to use it.</p>
<p>As noted above, for the Chrysalis the Inner Arbor Trust chose as architect Living Design Lab, a Baltimore firm founded in 2014 by Davin Hong, subsequently joined by Kevin Day. The principals of Living Design Lab have shown a willingness to stretch themselves, to take on complex and ambitious projects with multiple stakeholders, to practice design above the level of a isolated building or structure, and to do work that serves the community as a whole and not just their client.</p>
<p>Projects on which they’ve worked include advocacy for an integrated design approach to renewing Baltimore’s schools and their surrounding neighborhoods, a project to revitalize Greenmount Avenue in Baltimore, the Baltimore Green Network&mdash;an ambitious plan to create an interconnected system of greenspaces throught the city&mdash;and a project to build cities for refugees in the Middle East in place of their current camps.</p>
<p>This background prepared Living Design Lab to play a key role in the complex and ambitious project that was the Chrysalis, working with THEVERYMANY, Arup, and Zahner to take the formal concept of the Chrysalis&mdash;the 3-dimensional form created through the parametric design process&mdash;and make a buildable structure able to handle the demands to be placed upon it.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-pickets-design.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-pickets-design-embed.png"
         alt="A rendering showing the wooden pickets, the brackets by which they are attached, and the aluminum support plate to which the brackets are attached. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A rendering showing the wooden pickets, the brackets by which they are attached, and the aluminum support plate to which the brackets are attached. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="sweating-the-details">Sweating the details</h2>
<p>Even a typical architectural project involves a myriad of details, more or less visible to the people using it. Less visible details include those needed to satisfy local authorities that a building or other structure will be safe for people and satisfy other requirements: Does it provide adequate fire protection? Does it comply with ADA requirements regarding access?  What about handling of storm water runoff? And so on . . .</p>
<p>Even the more visible details often go unnoticed by many, but can elicit a sense of delight when done really well, or irritation when done poorly&mdash;think of how satisfied we feel when we hold and use a really well-designed smartphone, for example, or how we’re annoyed when we pay thousands for a new car only to find that the body panels aren’t consistently joined, or that an otherwise sumptuous interior is spoiled by misplaced controls and cheap plastic parts. And of course we want good design for an reasonable price.</p>
<p>For the Chrysalis Living Design Lab dealt with both types of details, working to understand and satisfy a myriad of technical requirements related to the function, construction, cost, schedule, and regulatory approval of the Chrysalis, all without compromising the design intent. For example, consider the question of fire protection: Above the stage floor the Chrysalis is a pure metal structure of steel and aluminum. Arguably a conventional building sprinkler system is neither necessary nor appropriate for the Chrysalis&mdash;just one of the many issues that had to be negotiated with Howard County officials for a structure very different than those that typically come before them.</p>
<p>Previous articles have discussed various strategies employed to preserve the design intent for the Chrysalis&mdash;so often compromised in projects&mdash;while making it possible for it to fulfill its purposes, including most notably serving as a professional performance stage. These strategies included the introduction of the steel framework with its “spine” of primary steel and “ribs” of secondary steel to support heavy theatrical loads and resist dynamic wind loads, and the use of ZEPPS panels to support the pleated surface of aluminum shingles.</p>
<p>This attention to design intent and the uniqueness of the Chrysalis extended to other aspects as well. To explore just one, consider the wooden pickets attached to the exterior of the Chrysalis subfloor (see the first figure above). These pickets are Living Design Lab’s elegant solution to three separate problems:</p>
<p>First, code requirements dictate that there be adequate protection to prevent people from falling off the stage and other surfaces greater than a certain height above the ground. Second, aesthetic considerations dictate that some sort of screening be provided for the otherwise uninterrupted expanses of concrete forming the exterior walls of the subfloor. Finally, budget considerations mean that any solution must not be overly expensive to fabricate and install.</p>
<p>The solution that Living Design Lab came up with was to use vertical wooden pickets (of the same ipe hardwood used for the stage floor) extending from the ground either to the stage floor (at the front of the stage) or beyond it (at the rear of the stage) to form guard rails. The result is more aesthetically pleasing than using conventional railings for the stage and a separate screen or facade for the exterior walls.</p>
<p>But how to build and install these wooden pickets, given that they have to both follow the curve of the stage floor and also match up with the angled legs of the Chrysalis at the points where the guard rails meet the legs? Every picket might have a different orientation in 3-dimensional space, and thus have to be attached in a slightly different way.</p>
<p>For the solution to the problem see the rendering above: Each picket is attached to a angled aluminum attachment bracket. Different attachment brackets have different angles, so that their respective pickets can assume different angles to the ground depending on the degree to which the underlying subfloor wall “leans in.”  (Viewing the picket from above and comparing it to an airplane, this is the “pitch” angle.)</p>
<p>Each picket is free to rotate around the bolt attaching it to its bracket, so it can also be slanted to the left or right in a direction parallel to the exterior subfloor wall&mdash;in airplane terms, the “roll” angle of the picket can change. Finally, the bracket itself is attached to a horizontal aluminum support plate in such a way that the bracket and its attached picket can “yaw” back and forth slightly to match the curve of the stage floor and the positions of its neighboring pickets.</p>
<p>This arrangement of pickets, brackets, and support plates, elegant as it is, would be too expensive to fabricate if each bracket had to be unique, and too complicated to install as well, given the need to adjust the pickets to precise angles. To address this, the system was designed to require only a limited number of types of brackets, each holding a picket to a particular angle to the ground. The underside of each support plate was then marked to indicate to the installers the type of bracket to be used at each position, together with a line to indicate how the installer should align each bracket relative to the plate (the “yaw” angle).</p>
<p>This system is but one example where having a balance of technical expertise with design sophistication enabled Living Design Lab and the other members of the core Chrysalis team to realize the form of the Chrysalis as a buildable design within a reasonable budget and time schedule.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-pavers.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-pavers-embed.png"
         alt="Pervious clay pavers forming the pedestrian area in front of the Chrysalis stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  To the upper right is the walkable access road leading to the Chrysalis from the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot. In the background is the beta stage. (See also the figure below.)  Image © 2017 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Pervious clay pavers forming the pedestrian area in front of the Chrysalis stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  To the upper right is the walkable access road leading to the Chrysalis from the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot. In the background is the beta stage. (See also the figure below.)  Image © 2017 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="mahan-rykiel-associates">Mahan Rykiel Associates</h2>
<p>While Living Design Lab is a relatively new firm, Mahan Rykiel Associates has been a fixture of the Baltimore scene for over 30 years. Founded by Catherine Mahan in 1983 as Catherine Mahan Associates, it became Mahan Rykiel Associates after Scott Rykiel joined the firm in 1993 and became a partner with Mahan.</p>
<p>Mahan Rykiel has completed or is currently working on a host of projects in the Baltimore-Washington region, including several involving parks: Harbor Point on the waterfront west of Fells Point, Pierce’s Park next to the Columbus Center at the Inner Harbor, Eager Park north of Johns Hopkins University, and Fern Valley and the National Capitol Columns at the US National Arboretum.</p>
<p>Closer to home, Mahan Rykiel has many associations with Columbia: Scott Rykiel used to work at the Columbia-based firm LDR International, two partners at the firm currently live in Columbia, and Mahan Rykiel has been involved with downtown Columbia projects for over ten years, including being the landscape architect for the Columbia Association’s Symphony Woods Park project.</p>
<p>After the Columbia Association decided to adopt the Inner Arbor plan and created the Inner Arbor Trust to carry it out, the Trust decided to take advantage of Mahan Rykiel’s deep knowledge of Symphony Woods and added them to the design team for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-path.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-path-embed.png"
         alt="The accessible path leading to the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is looking up the hill from the alpha stage to the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot. Image © 2017 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The accessible path leading to the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is looking up the hill from the alpha stage to the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot. Image © 2017 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="getting-to-and-from-the-chrysalis">Getting to and from the Chrysalis</h2>
<p>In joining the Inner Arbor design team one major task Mahan Rykiel took on was that of creating a new path system for Symphony Woods&mdash;fulfilling the mandate of the Howard County Planning Board to minimize tree removal by “aligning paths around healthy trees and minimizing grading.”  Mahan Rykiel’s work at the Chrysalis represents the beginning of creating a comprehensive system of meandering paths for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, as seen in the multiple pedestrian areas around the structure.</p>
<p>The first is an 8-foot-wide accessible path leading to the Chrysalis from a set of seven new handicap parking spaces at the Merriweather VIP parking lot. This path winds around the existing Merriweather Post Pavilion administrative offices and concludes in front of the Chrysalis between the alpha and beta stages.</p>
<p>In order to minimize the slope of the accessible path it goes below grade a bit for one section, in which it is flanked by low walls made of natural stone from the region. To minimize storm water runoff the accessible path features flexible pervious pavement made from recycled tire granules, aggregate rock, and a binding agent. (See the figure above.)</p>
<p>At the Chrysalis the accessible path terminates in a pedestrian area in front of the alpha and beta stages. This area uses light-colored pervious clay pavers, again to minimize storm water runoff. (See the figure above.)</p>
<p>At the south end of the Chrysalis concrete and wooden steps lead to the beta stage. At the north end of the Chrysalis the clay pavers transition to a wooden ramp that provides an accessible approach to the alpha stage floor. This ramp is surfaced with the same ipe hardwood used for the Chrysalis stage floor, and flanked by the same wooden picket discussed above, serving as guard rails. (See the figure above.)</p>
<p>At present this elevated wooden boardwalk is relatively short. However, in phase 2 of the development of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods the boardwalk will be extended west and then northeast to provide an accessible path to the Chrysalis from a new entrance to the park at the corner of Little Patuxent Parkway and South Entrance Road, next to the multi-use pathway to Lake Kittamaqundi.</p>
<p>The final approach to the Chrysalis is via a short access road providing vehicular access to the loading dock at the rear of the alpha stage. Paved with asphalt and edged with cobblestones, this road provides another walkable approach to the Chrysalis.</p>
<p>Supplemented by landscaping work around the Chrysalis to restore a more natural landscape, the Chrysalis path system and the other areas surrounding the Chrysalis represent Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in miniature, foreshadowing how Mahan Rykiel’s work will enhance Symphony Woods during the subsequent phases of park development.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-stage-floor.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-stage-floor-embed.png"
         alt="The stage floor of the Chrysalis in the process of being installed. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) The black cylinders are Bison adjustable deck supports, each holding up one corner of four adjacent wooden tiles. Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The stage floor of the Chrysalis in the process of being installed. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The black cylinders are Bison adjustable deck supports, each holding up one corner of four adjacent wooden tiles. Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="taking-the-stage">Taking the stage</h2>
<p>Another key element of the Chrysalis in its final form, important to performers and audience alike, is the stage floor.</p>
<p>This floor has to satisfy several requirements: it has to provide as level a surface as possible; bear the weight of performers, their equipment, and an on-stage audience that might number in the hundreds; be yielding enough for dance and related performances; be sturdy enough to last a long time while exposed to the elements; provide adequate space for electrical cabling and other below-stage equipment; allow for easy repair if damaged; and, finally, be installable above a concrete surface that may be somewhat uneven in places.</p>
<p>The path to a solution began with Michael McCall, the president of the Inner Arbor Trust: in the course of planning a deck for his own home, McCall came across the Bison system of wooden floor tiles and adjustable deck supports. (See the figure above.)  Living Design Lab and Arup evaluated the system, and based on its multiple advantages the Chrysalis team decided to adopt it for the main stage floor.</p>
<p>Each Bison unit supports the corners of four adjacent wooden tiles. The deck supports are threaded to allow fine adjustments to be made to the height of the tiles to make the stage floor as level as possible. If needed the base of each unit can also be adjusted to compensate for the underlying surface sloping somewhat.</p>
<p>The wooden tiles for the floor are 2-foot by 2-foot and (like the wooden pickets and the ramp to the Chrysalis) are made of ipe hardwood. They are elevated several inches above the underlying concrete subfloor to allow space for electrical cabling and other equipment, and can be individually removed if needed to gain access to the space under the stage floor. They can also be individually replaced if damaged.</p>
<p>The Inner Arbor Trust also took advantage of the nature of the tiles to mount a fundraising campaign, allowing people or organizations to have their names or other texts laser-engraved on the individual planks of the tiles in return for donations. The final form of the Chrysalis stage floor thus reflects not only the contributions of Living Design Lab, Arup, and the other members of the Chrysalis team, but also the contributions of the many other people and organizations who have helped bring the Chrysalis to life.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-stage-engraving.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-stage-engraving-embed.png"
         alt="The Chrysalis stage floor as installed, with engraved wooden tiles. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2017 Howard County, Maryland."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Chrysalis stage floor as installed, with engraved wooden tiles. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2017 Howard County, Maryland.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>For more on Living Design Lab and its principals, Davin Hong and Kevin Day, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://livingdesignlab.com/">Living Design Lab</a>. The firm’s web site.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.livingdesignlab.com/davin-hong.html">Davin Hong</a>. Professional biography of Davin Hong.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.livingdesignlab.com/kevin-day.html">Kevin Day</a>. Professional biography of Kevin Day.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.cphabaltimore.org/2013/10/building-communities-through-schools-an-interview-with-davin-hong/">Building communities through schools: An interview with Davin Hong</a>. A 2013 interview with Davin Hong.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on Mahan Rykiel Associates, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.mahanrykiel.com/practice/">Mahan Rykiel Associates/Practice</a>. About page on the Mahan Rykiel site.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2006-10-09/features/0610090012_1_prayer-garden-garden-project-garden-design">Moving heaven &amp; earth</a>,” by Stephanie Shapiro, page 1C, <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, October 9, 2006. Includes a profile of Scott Rykiel.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-interview-mahan-20120401-story.html">Devoted to ‘creating wonderful outdoor spaces’</a>”, by Lorraine Mirabella, page 3C, <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, April 1, 2012. An interview with Catherine Mahan on her retirement from Mahan Rykiel, discussing the history of the firm.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/191568080">Unabashed Designers of Delight</a>” [121-minute video] (November 18, 2013). A presentation introducing the design team for the Inner Arbor plan. It includes a presentation by Scott Rykiel beginning at 41:54.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Chrysalis stage floor see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.bisonip.com/">Bison Innovative Products</a> and example <a href="http://www.bisonip.com/product/versadjust-model-v4-adjustable-deck-supports">deck supports</a> and <a href="http://www.bisonip.com/product/wt-fsc-ipe-24-smooth-deck-tile/">floor tiles</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.wood-database.com/ipe/">Entry for ipe</a> (the hardwood used in the stage floor tiles and pickets) at the online <a href="http://www.wood-database.com/">Wood Database</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://inartrust.org/share-the-stage-with-the-stars/">Engraving</a> for the Chrysalis stage floor tiles.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Chrysalis amphitheater and its origins in the Inner Arbor concept plan, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">Michael McCall presentation of the Inner Arbor concept plan to Leadership Howard County</a> [33-minute video] (September 20, 2013).</li>
<li>The Chrysalis portion of the <a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">Inner Arbor pre-submission community presentation</a> (December 2, 2013).</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Michael McCall presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> [20-minute video] (February 26, 2014).</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: What comes next</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/04/14/creating-the-chrysalis-what-comes-next/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 14 Apr 2017 13:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/04/14/creating-the-chrysalis-what-comes-next/</guid>
      <description>Now that construction of the Chrysalis is complete, what are the next steps to fulfill the vision of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods?</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-site-plan.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-site-plan-embed.png"
         alt="Site plan for the northern portion of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, with major park features labelled. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Site plan for the northern portion of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, with major park features labelled. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Now that construction of the Chrysalis is complete, what are the next steps to fulfill the vision of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods?</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The previous few articles in this series discussed the design and construction of the Chrysalis itself. Now that construction of the Chrysalis is complete I take a look at what’s next for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. In particular, this article focuses on other Merriweather Park features that are already part of the Site Development Plan approved by the Howard County Planning Board and are thus candidates for the next few years of park development.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-sdp-phases.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-sdp-phases-embed.png"
         alt="Areas addressed in each phase (1 through 7) of the development of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image adapted from sheet 2 of SDP-14-073."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Areas addressed in each phase (1 through 7) of the development of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image adapted from sheet 2 of SDP-14-073.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="a-roadmap-for-merriweather-park-at-symphony-woods">A roadmap for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods</h2>
<p>When the Inner Arbor Trust went before the Howard County Planning Board in November 2014, it sought approval not just for the Chrysalis amphitheater, but for a whole range of planned features for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods&mdash;or at least the northern portion of it. (Recall that the Symphony Woods property also includes areas to the east, south, and west of Merriweather Post Pavilion.)  In their combination of beauty and utility these features make Merriweather Park a more attractive destination for visitors and provide various key functions needed to accomodate them.</p>
<p>SDP-14-073, the Site Development Plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, outlines 7 phases of park development, with phase 1 being the construction of the Chrysalis and related infrastructure and phase 2 construction of an additional path connecting to the Chrysalis. In approving SDP-14-073 the Planning Board approved the design concepts, uses, and locations of park features for all 7 phases, and fully approved phases 1 and 2 for construction.</p>
<p>Each phase is tied to a particular area of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. The park features in each of the 7 phases are as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>The Chrysalis and related infrastructure, including an access road to the rear of the stage, a parking lot with 7 handicap spaces, and an accessible path from that parking lot to the Chrysalis.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>A new park entrance at the corner of Little Patuxent Parkway and South Entrance Road, leading to the Chrysalis via an accessible boardwalk. This phase also includes the Sky Horns, a sound sculpture near the entrance (part of the Merriweather Horns public art) and restoration of the two streams on the eastern side of Merriweather Park.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Butterfly guest services building and related infrastructure, including a rooftop terrace with lines of sight into both the Chrysalis and Merriweather Post Pavilion, and a large three-tiered deck facing the Chrysalis.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Merriground play area and another new park entrance, from Little Patuxent Parkway across from the Mall in Columbia access road (to the west of the first park entrance). This phase also includes the Song Cycles, a second sound sculpture near the new entrance.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Picnic Table and associated paths, including a third entrance to the park from Little Patuxent Parkway (to the west of the first two park entrances). This phase also includes the Land Horns, a third sound sculpture near the new entrance.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Caterpillar and associated paths.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>A renovated access road from Little Patuxent Parkway to Merriweather Post Pavilion, under the new name Free To Be Drive, along with a visitor drop-off area, a fourth park entrance, and the Tone Reeds, the fourth and final entrance sound sculpture.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>The timing of phase 2 and beyond will depend on available funding, and the actual order of phases 3 through 7 may not be the same as that listed above.</p>
<p>All features listed above are discussed below, with the exception of Free To Be Drive and related vehicular roadways, parking spaces, and paths: much of that work has already been constructed by Howard Hughes Corporation under a later Site Development Plan (SDP-16-018) jointly submitted by Howard Hughes and the Inner Arbor Trust. (See also the last figure below.)  Although paths, lighting, and elements of the Merriweather Horns will be constructed during their associated phases, for convenience they are discussed in separate sections.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-pathways.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-pathways-embed.png"
         alt="Planned pathways within Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, showing the materials used for the various paths and roads. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  This diagram does not show the accessible path that runs to the south end of the Chrysalis. Images © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Planned pathways within Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, showing the materials used for the various paths and roads. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  This diagram does not show the accessible path that runs to the south end of the Chrysalis. Images © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-merriweather-park-path-system">The Merriweather Park path system</h2>
<p>The plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods includes over 2 miles of paths and walkable access roads and 4 separate pedestrian entrances into the park from Little Patuxent Parkway and Free To Be Drive, designed by landscape architects Mahan Rykiel Associates of Baltimore.</p>
<p>These paths and access roads will not all be constructed at once, but instead will be built incrementally as part of the various phases. For example, phase 1 (the Chrysalis) included construction of a walkable access road to the Chrysalis from the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot, and an accessible path to the Chrysalis from a newly-built parking lot with 7 handicap spaces.</p>
<p>Phase 2 of the Site Development Plan includes construction of an accessible boardwalk from the Chrysalis to Little Patuxent Parkway. The planned boardwalk first heads west from the Chrysalis (skirting the existing stream to the north of the Chrysalis) and then goes northeast to the intersection of Little Patuxent Parkway and South Entrance Road, where the path will connect with the existing multi-use pathway leading to Lake Kittamaqundi. (See the two figures above.)</p>
<p>Additional paths will be constructed as part of the remaining phases, including adding two additional park entrances on Little Patuxent Parkway, one across from the access road to The Mall in Columbia, and one next to the existing access road from Little Patuxent Parkway to Merriweather Post Pavilion, and adding a fourth entrance from the future Free To Be Drive.</p>
<p>The pathways themselves are designed to be attractive, durable, and pervious to assist in handling storm water runoff. As it happens, the paths already constructed for the Chrysalis provide examples of all the planned pathway types:</p>
<ul>
<li>Larger pedestrian areas, like the area in front of the Chrysalis alpha stage, will use permeable clay pavers (blue areas in the figure above).</li>
<li>Regular paths, like that leading to the Chrysalis from the 7-space handicap access parking lot, will use flexible pervious pavement made from recycled tire granules, aggregate rock, and a binding agent (green arrows in the figure above).</li>
<li>Boardwalks and decks, like the ramp leading to the Chrysalis stage, will be surfaced with ipe (“ee-pay”), an extremely durable and low-maintenance hardwood (red arrows in the figure above).</li>
<li>Walkable access roads, like that leading to the Chrysalis from the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot, will be surfaced with asphalt and edged with cobblestones  (purple areas in the figure above).</li>
</ul>
<p>Any walls next to pathways (for example, as seen in the accessible path to the Chrysalis) will be constructed of stone from the region (yellow areas in the figure above).</p>
<p>Finally, the pathway system will provide plenty of opportunities for people to sit and take a rest, using seating built into the stone walls, long benches next to paths, circular benches, and circular bench and table combinations. Like the boardwalks and decks, these will be built using ipe hardwood. Altogether there will be seating for over 2,000 people.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-butterfly.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-butterfly-embed.png"
         alt="Rendering of the Butterfly guest services building, as viewed from the Chrysalis looking southwest up the hill toward the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the Butterfly guest services building, as viewed from the Chrysalis looking southwest up the hill toward the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-butterfly">The Butterfly</h2>
<p>The Butterfly, designed by Mimi Hoang and Eric Bunge of the New York-based firm nARCHITECTS, is a guest services building containing café and gallery space, planned to be located between the Chrysalis and Merriweather Post Pavilion. Its main customer base will be people attending concerts and cultural events at either or both venues, supplemented by other visitors to the park. (The Butterfly will be open to the general public most of the time, except when ticketed events are being held at Merriweather Post Pavilion or the Chrysalis.)</p>
<p>In designing the Butterfly nARCHITECTS aimed for immersion, lightness, and connection: to immerse visitors in the natural setting, impart a sense of lightness to the structure, and connect it to both the Chrysalis and Merriweather Post Pavilion. One key element in promoting these goals is the design for the roof of the Butterfly. The roof is designed for active use by visitors: to watch performances at the Chrysalis or those held on the roof itself, or just to hang out with friends at the rooftop bar.</p>
<p>The roof will accomodate almost three hundred people, either standing or sitting on steps built into the upward curving wings of the roof. It will be reachable either by two exterior stairs or by an elevator within the Butterfly itself.</p>
<p>The ground floor of the Butterfly has four wings, housing food preparation areas, a small art gallery, and restrooms. The central space will have seating to accomodate patrons of the café. The Butterfly also has a three-level terraced outside deck facing the Chrysalis, again with seating to accomodate visitors.</p>
<p>The Butterfly can be entered from both the Merriweather Post Pavilion side (from the VIP parking lot) and the Chrysalis side (from the terraced deck), with glass walls providing a view through the building and a visual connection between the Merriweather Post Pavilion area and the woods leading to the Chrysalis&mdash;again promoting the goals of immersion, lightness, and connection.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-merriground.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-merriground-embed.png"
         alt="Rendering of the Merriground. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the Merriground. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-merriground">The Merriground</h2>
<p>The Merriground, designed by Martha Schwartz Partners, is a children’s play area containing multiple elements: a double helix spiral slide, a climbing tower and slide, various elements that can be used either for seating (at their lower levels) or climbing, a ring of rope swings, a “spider web” of rope that can be used as a hammock in which to relax, and&mdash;last but not least&mdash;the Wondrous Tower, a 45-foot-tall anodized aluminum tower within which visitors can ascend a spiral staircase and look out over the park.</p>
<p>The elements of the Merriground are custom-designed to have a common aesthetic and match the overall aesthetic of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods: the elements incorporate circular and spiral shapes, and the wood used will be the same durable ipe hardwood used for the Merriweather Park boardwalk and decks.</p>
<p>The Merriground will be located on the boardwalk (from phase 2) that leads into Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods from the corner of Little Patuxent Parkway and South Entrance Road. It abuts the Lily Pads, a set of circular decks with benches that forms part of that boardwalk.</p>
<p>The Merriground thus not only serves as a play area, but also provides an attractive “entrance experience” for visitors arriving from the northeast, for example, walking from Lake Kittamaqundi on the multi-use pathway.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-picnic-table.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-picnic-table-embed.png"
         alt="Rendering of the Picnic Table. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the Picnic Table. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-picnic-table">The Picnic Table</h2>
<p>The Picnic Table, also designed by Martha Schwartz Partners, has a very simple function: it takes an area of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods that is low-lying and damp and turns it into an area that can be used for picnics, seating for events like Wine in the Woods, and just plain lounging around.</p>
<p>As its name suggests, the Picnic Table can be seen as an alternative to and replacement for conventional picnic tables. However, it can accomodate many more people within its expanse of 300 by 25 feet: over three hundred people can sit on or near the edge for an event like Wine in the Woods. The Picnic Table also has a much lower profile than conventional picnic tables: it is only 18 inches high, and is designed so that it appears to float above the ground below: the edges of the Picnic Table are cantilevered over 6 feet out from the relatively small steel columns and girders holding it up.</p>
<p>Finally, the Picnic Table is designed to fit into the landscape: it is covered with artificial turf to help it blend in to the underlying lawn, and has cutouts to avoid existing trees. (Seven new trees will also be planted to fill spaces within the existing tree cover.)  The artificial turf and the underlying surface of the Picnic Table will also be perforated to allow water to drain naturally through the surface.</p>
<p>The development phase that includes construction of the Picnic Table will also see construction of a third pedestrian entrance into the park from Little Patuxent Parkway, and the Land Horns sound sculpture near the entrance. This accessible entrance will be west of the two other entrances, near the existing access road to Merriweather Post Pavilion and the future Free To Be Drive.</p>
<p>Oriented northwest to southeast, the Picnic Table itself runs roughly parallel to a section of this new path, and also roughly parallel to a separate path (on the other side of the Picnic Tables) constructed as part of the same phase as the Merriground. Visitors will thus have easy access to the Picnic Table from multiple segments of the park pathway system.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-visitors.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-visitors-embed.png"
         alt="Rendering of the eastern end of the Caterpillar, providing access to the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the eastern end of the Caterpillar, providing access to the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-caterpillar">The Caterpillar</h2>
<p>The Caterpillar, designed by Martha Schwartz Partners, is the single most extensive feature proposed for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, about twice as long as the Picnic Table. It stretches over about a third of Merriweather Park from east to west, a circular tube covered with plants and other landscaping features.</p>
<p>Although it’s designed to serve multiple functions, the Caterpillar’s primary purpose is very simple: to provide an attractive visual and physical barrier between the “performance park” envisioned in the Inner Arbor concept plan (Merriweather Post Pavilion, the Chrysalis, and associated venues) and the “public park” (just south of Little Patuxent Parkway). This is in support of the twin principles of “operational elasticity” and “the art of bounds” pursued by the Inner Arbor Trust: to allow both the park and the pavilion to expand as needed to accomodate particular uses, and to ensure that the park can remain open to visitors even when events are held at the pavilion.</p>
<p>The striking design of the Caterpillar follows directly from these principles: a fence or wall would be too visually forbidding and unwelcoming for park visitors (as is the current fence around the Merriweather Post Pavilion property), while an earth berm of the needed height would be so wide that it would encroach upon the surrounding trees and suffocate their roots.</p>
<p>Essentially a tubular green wall, the circular cross-section of the Caterpillar allows for it to be large enough to provide physical separation between the two park areas while having a relatively small footprint on the ground below.  At almost 11 feet high the Caterpillar is high enough to discourage visitors from climbing over it, but its rounded shape creates a more organic and visually friendly impression than a vertical barrier. Gateways at either end (where the Caterpillar structure arches over the paths) will funnel pedestrian traffic between the northern part of Merriweather Park and the southern part.</p>
<p>The Caterpillar does not follow the line of the existing fence on the property line between the Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion properties. Instead it is located some distance north of the property line (towards Little Patuxent Parkway), with the area just south of the Caterpillar (towards Merriweather Post Pavilion) containing a pedestrian plaza and serving as an additional public area for visitors to the pavilion.</p>
<p>In addition to acting as an attractive visual and physical barrier, the Caterpillar also helps with the prosaic problem of providing utilities for events such as Wine in the Woods that spread beyond Merriweather Post Pavilion or the Chrysalis. The structure is hollow, designed to contain electrical lines, water lines, computer network cables, and anything else needed to support events in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>The space immediately north and south of the Caterpillar can be used for event tents and other temporary structures, the fronts of which would face the paths and pedestrian plazas, and the backs of which would be next to any power or other utility outlets embedded in the Caterpillar. The Caterpillar can also support wireless access points to provide WiFi signals to a good portion of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>The Caterpillar will also support a number of other uses: At either end it will contain information booths for visitors to the park or the pavilion. Since the structure supports potted plants as the main visual element it can be used as a community garden to raise flowers or herbs, and since it’s intended to be lighted from within it can be used for visual art of various sorts.</p>
<p>Martha Schwartz has proposed other possible uses as well, including having “portals” through which people could view artworks or educational displays, supporting “audioscapes” either natural (e.g., activated by the wind) or artificial (using microspeakers), or having the structure interact with visitors via smartphone or tablet apps. The Caterpillar can thus serve as a platform for a myriad of possible uses, and will be one of the unique attractions of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-skyhorns.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-skyhorns-embed.png"
         alt="Rendering of the Sky Horns at the northeast entrance to Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods (at the corner of Little Patuxent Parkway and the South Entrance Road). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  This rendering also shows a portion of the boardwalk by which visitors can reach the Merriground, the Chrysalis, and the rest of the park.  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the Sky Horns at the northeast entrance to Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods (at the corner of Little Patuxent Parkway and the South Entrance Road). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  This rendering also shows a portion of the boardwalk by which visitors can reach the Merriground, the Chrysalis, and the rest of the park.  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-merriweather-horns">The Merriweather Horns</h2>
<p>As visitors enter Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods the Inner Arbor Trust wanted to make them feel that they were entering a special place. In support of that goal the Trust turned to a local artist with a national reputation, former Howard County resident William Cochran. The result was the Merriweather Horns, a set of sculptures for the entrances to Merriweather Park, as well as other sculptural elements to be located elsewhere in the park.</p>
<p>The Merriweather Horns are inspired by the ancient practice of producing sound via horns, from animal horns to musical instruments to the acoustic horns of old-time phonographs and audiophile speakers. As befits their inspiration, all of the pieces are designed to occasionally produce sounds of various types, soft enough to be heard only while standing near the sculptures, and muted during concerts held at Merriweather Post Pavilion or the Chrysalis.</p>
<p>Cochran designed one sculpture for each of the four entrances to Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>The Sky Horns will be located at the northeast entrance to Merriweather Park, at the intersection of Little Patuxent Parkway and South Entrance Road. They are a set of about a dozen long thin straight horns, from 6 to 23 feet in length, suspended among the trees and pointing down towards visitors entering the park on the boardwalk. (See the figure above.)  Their sounds are designed to combine and evoke the human voice.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Song Cycles will be located at the central entrance to Merriweather Park, at the bottom of the stairs leading down from Little Patuxent Parkway. Resembling traditional phonograph horns, two of them (terminating in fan wheels) are interactive sculptures: visitors can sit at them and use a set of bicycle pedals to produce a series of sounds from the sculptures. Pedalling faster changes the character of the sounds, until eventually they reach a crescendo and the cycle begins anew.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Land Horns will be located at the northwest entrance to Merriweather Park, off Little Patuxent Parkway. They are a set of 6 large (up to 28 feet tall) horns, all but one with the bell part of the horn facing the ground. Five of the horns will produce a low frequency melody directed into underground acoustic chambers, with the other horn producing somewhat higher pitched sounds in harmony.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The Tone Reeds will be located at the southwest entrance to Merriweather Park, off the access road to Merriweather Post Pavilion from Little Patuxent Parkway (the future Free To Be Drive). They are a set of over 200 thin vertical rods ranging in height from 12 to 18 feet, positioned in a loose cluster several feet off the path. They produce a light delicate chiming sound.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>In addition to the four main sculptures, there will also be about a dozen “pathfinder horns” at various points on the pathway system. These sculptures will serve as wayfinding devices, for example with two intertwined standing horns (from 8 to almost 10 feet tall) located at a fork in the path, each facing a different direction the visitor can take. The mouths of the horns will face down toward the visitor, with an interior gold finish covered by perforated stainless steel grilles with directional arrows and text.</p>
<p>The pathfinder horns will produce soft sounds characteristic of the forest and its underground wildlife. They can also be synchronized together to play a soft “evening song” melody to mark the end of the day.</p>
<p>Although they produce different sounds, all of the Merriweather Horns have a common visual aesthetic, combining white pearlescent fiberglass with stainless steel, designed to have a light appearance in a portion of the park that is in shade much of the time. The Merriweather Horns will also be lighted from within in various ways as part of the overall lighting scheme for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods (see below).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-planting-design.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-planting-design-embed.png"
         alt="The planting design for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The lanscape in each numbered area will be restored with the appropriate plantings. Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The planting design for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The lanscape in each numbered area will be restored with the appropriate plantings. Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="restoring-the-landscape-in-merriweather-park">Restoring the landscape in Merriweather Park</h2>
<p>Although it’s sometimes referred to as a preserved forest, after years of use and relative neglect the Symphony Woods property is not close to being in a natural state: most of the property is simply a lawn with accompanying trees, and even the more wooded parts of the property lack the understory plants one would find in a truly natural forest.</p>
<p>A key part of the plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods is therefore to restore the woods to a more natural state while still making it possible for visitors to use the park on a day to day basis and during events like Wine in the Woods. The planting design was created by landscape architects Mahan Rykiel Associates, the firm that also designed the systems of paths in Merriweather Park, working with the Baltimore-based firm Biohabitats.</p>
<p>Mahan Rykiel has designated 5 different types of landscape in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, with each planned to be restored in a different manner (see the figure above):</p>
<ol>
<li>Areas at the park entrances and next to many of the paths will have feature plantings: decorative bushes and shrubs (e.g., azaleas and rhododendrons), small trees, flowers, and the like. These will enhance the experience of visitors using the paths, beautify the outer edge of the park along Little Patuxent Parkway and Free To Be Drive, and form a natural complement to the Merriweather Horns.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></li>
<li>Areas to be used by visitors, for example the hill next to the Chrysalis and the areas around the Picnic Table and Caterpillar, will be restored as natural lawns.</li>
<li>Various areas in the more heavily forested eastern portion of the park will become enhanced woodlands, with native woodland plants (shrubs, perennials, groundcovers, and grasses) added to form a proper understory for the trees.</li>
<li>A relatively open area in the north of the park and another to the southwest will be converted into native meadows.</li>
<li>Finally, the streambeds in the eastern portion of the park will be restored and riparian buffers created between the streams and the rest of the park.</li>
</ol>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-fully-lighted.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-fully-lighted-embed.png"
         alt="Rendering of the lighting master plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the lighting master plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="lighting-merriweather-park">Lighting Merriweather Park</h2>
<p>The Chrysalis and Merriweather Post Pavilion will frequently host events in the evening. Visitors to Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods on those and other nights will want to be able to walk through the park and be able to find their way and have a sense of security. Proper lighting of the park is key to addressing these issues.</p>
<p>The New York office of Arup Associates, with Star Davis as lead, created the lighting master plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. The plan features multiple “layers” of lighting that work together to create an overall experience. The plan aims for the various lighting elements to have a natural quality, “as if growing from the earth and drawing power from the soil”:</p>
<ul>
<li>The first layer is lighting for the pedestrian pathways of Merriwweather Park. This will be provided by small fixtures near ground level spaced every 5 feet, designed to shine light on the path without bleeding light upward.</li>
<li>The second layer is lighting for vehicular roadways within Merriweather Park: access roads, parking lots, and visitor drop-off points. This will be provided by pole-mounted lights of various heights (each no higher than necessary given its location), facing downward to minimize light loss upwards.</li>
<li>The third layer is landscape lighting in Merriweather Park areas where people would be most likely to gather: between the Butterfly and the Chrysalis, at the Merriground and Picnic Table, and between the Caterpillar and Merriweather Post Pavilion. Some of these lights will be low to the ground (similar to the pathway lights), while others will be suspended among the trees.</li>
<li>The fourth layer is lighting for the Merriweather Horns, including both those at park entrances and the pathfinder horns located throughout the park. These will be softly lit from within.</li>
<li>The final layer is “integrated feature animation,” that is, lighting of park features like the Merriground, Picnic Table, and Caterpillar that is designed to subtly change over time or in response to the actions of visitors.</li>
</ul>
<p>Illumination throughout Merriweather Park will vary by layer and feature, designed to meet recommended light levels for various uses and contexts while not producing excessive or misdirected light.  The overall effect of the lighting master plan will be to show all the features of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods to their best advantages, making the park at night a magical experience for all its visitors.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-phase-7.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-phase-7-embed.png"
         alt="Panoramic view of the areas of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods addressed by phase 7 of SDP-14-073 and by SDP-16-018. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) The view is south-southeast toward Merriweather Post Pavilion, with the future Free To Be Drive in the foreground extending from the extreme left to the stop sign at the intersection with the future Merriweather Drive, the lower end of the drop-off loop to Merriweather Park and the new pavilion box office in the center (behind the small piece of construction equipment), and the new parking lot with handicap spaces in the center right (behind the row of barrels). Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Panoramic view of the areas of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods addressed by phase 7 of SDP-14-073 and by SDP-16-018. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is south-southeast toward Merriweather Post Pavilion, with the future Free To Be Drive in the foreground extending from the extreme left to the stop sign at the intersection with the future Merriweather Drive, the lower end of the drop-off loop to Merriweather Park and the new pavilion box office in the center (behind the small piece of construction equipment), and the new parking lot with handicap spaces in the center right (behind the row of barrels). Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online and offline sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>For more on Martha Schwartz Partners, nARCHITECTS, and William Cochran, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.marthaschwartz.com/practice/profile/">Martha Schwartz Partners/Practice/Profile</a>. From the Martha Schwartz Partners web site.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.newsweek.com/qa-architect-martha-scwartz-312920">Q&amp;A with landscape architect Martha Schwartz</a>”. A <em>Newsweek</em> interview from March 11, 2015.</li>
<li><a href="http://narchitects.com/">nARCHITECTS</a>. nARCHITECTS web site.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.arch2o.com/arch2o-interviews-13-mins-interview-with-mimi-hoang-narchitects/">13 mins interview with Mimi Hoang - nARCHITECTS</a>”. An Arch20 interview from 2016 [?].</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/191568080">Unabashed Designers of Delight</a>” [121-minute video] (November 18, 2013). A presentation introducing the design team for the Inner Arbor plan. It includes a presentation by Martha Schwartz beginning at 12:00 and a presentation by Eric Bunge and Mimi Hoang beginning at 1:18:24.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.williamcochran.com/Asset.asp?AssetID=1681&amp;AKey=yx679bsx">Studio William Cochran/Bios</a>”. Biographies of William Cochran and his wife and partner Teresa Cochran.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/arts_and_entertainment/william-cochran-changing-streetscapes-through-public-art/article_e19ef84c-2ddd-59d3-950f-8131d679329d.html">William Cochran: changing streetscapes through public art</a>,” by Erik Anderson, May 18, 2016, <em>Frederick News-Post</em>. An article about Cochran’s work in Frederick and beyond.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the planned features for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">By design/Community presentation</a>. This page on the Merriweather Park web site features slides from the community presentation on December 2, 2013, including more renderings and design diagrams for the Caterpillar, Butterfly, and Picnic Table.</li>
<li><a href="http://inartrust.org/theplan/">By design/The plan</a>. This page on the Merriweather Park web site features a gallery of renderings of the Merriground and the Merriweather Horns.</li>
<li>SDP-14-073 (<a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-1-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf">part 1</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-2-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1-copy-2.pdf">part 2</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-3-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf">part 3</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-4-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf">part 4</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Part-5-of-5-SDP-14-073-R1.pdf">part 5</a>).  Although it can be difficult to read for the layperson, the approved Site Development Plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods provides a wealth of detail about planned park features.</li>
<li><a href="http://inartrust.org/s/MPBT-IAT-Joint-SDP-16-018.pdf">SDP-16-018</a>. A subsequent Site Development Plan (jointly submitted by the Inner Arbor Trust and the Howard Hughes Corporation) describing elements that are part of phase 7.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods as it has evolved from the original Inner Arbor plan, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>The <a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">Inner Arbor pre-submission community presentation</a> (December 2, 2013).</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Michael McCall presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> [20-minute video] (February 26, 2014). Among other things, this presentation outlines the principles of “operational elasticity” and “the art of bounds.”</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Although the figure and the text refer to generic feature planting areas, as described in the Site Development Plan there are actually several distinct feature planting zones, each with a somewhat different mix of plants. See SDP-14-073 for the full list.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Attracting the public</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/04/11/creating-the-chrysalis-attracting-the-public/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 11 Apr 2017 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/04/11/creating-the-chrysalis-attracting-the-public/</guid>
      <description>I discuss how the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods can attract visitors, based on research conducted by Integrated Insight.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-visitors.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-visitors-embed.png"
         alt="Illustration of visitors to the completed Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The Chrysalis is in the background to the left, beyond the Caterpillar. Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Illustration of visitors to the completed Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The Chrysalis is in the background to the left, beyond the Caterpillar. Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I discuss how the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods can attract visitors, based on research conducted by Integrated Insight.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The previous few articles in this series discussed the design and construction of the Chrysalis itself. There will be one more article discussing the final architectural details of the Chrysalis, but in the meantime before construction is completed I’ll take a detour and discuss other aspects of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. In particular, this article focuses on how Merriweather Park might attract visitors and how many visitors could be reasonably expected once the park is built out, based on research conducted for the Inner Arbor Trust by Integrated Insight, Inc.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/disney-properties.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/disney-properties-embed.png"
         alt="A sampling of attractions operated by Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, including theme parks, cruise ships, and resort hotels. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Images © Walt Disney Co."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A sampling of attractions operated by Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, including theme parks, cruise ships, and resort hotels. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Images © Walt Disney Co.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="integrated-insight-and-the-real-disney-magic">Integrated Insight and the real Disney magic</h2>
<p>Over the 50 years that Symphony Woods has existed many people have proposed ways to encourage more visitors, from early attempts by the Columbia Association to promote Symphony Woods as a picnic area for families to CA’s more recent efforts to formally develop the area as “Symphony Woods Park” (the so-called “Paumier plan”). However during that entire time few if any people made a serious effort to research exactly what types of park features might best attract visitors, and how many visitors might reasonably be expected as a result.</p>
<p>When the Inner Arbor Trust was given the responsibility of developing Symphony Woods as a park, one of its first actions was to commission exactly such a study. To perform the research the Trust turned to the Florida-based firm Integrated Insight, Inc.</p>
<p>Integrated Insight was founded in 2009 by Joni Newkirk, Scott Sanders, and other former executives of the Walt Disney Company. Newkirk had previously worked as a senior vice president responsible for researching, forecasting, and optimizing business for Walt Disney Parks and Resorts, the organization responsible for Walt Disney World, Disneyland, the Disney cruise line, and other Disney attractions around the world.</p>
<p>Jim Rouse was a fervent admirer of Walt Disney and his work in creating the Disney theme parks, once referring to Disneyland as “the greatest piece of urban design in the United States today . . ., [fulfilling] all its functions it set out to accomplish, un-self-consciously, usefully, and profitably to its owners and developers.”  Rouse’s work in creating festival marketplaces like the Inner Harbor development in Baltimore can be seen as adapting various aspects of Disney’s ideas to an urban setting.</p>
<p>Although Jim Rouse did not have the opportunity to work with Disney while at the Rouse Company, afterwards he explored creating a joint venture between the Walt Disney Company and the Enterprise Development Company, the for-profit arm of his nonprofit Enterprise Foundation. The lead on that project was Michael McCall, who was later to found Strategic Leisure, Inc., and then to spearhead development of Symphony Woods as president of the Inner Arbor Trust. McCall was thus familar with Disney’s various projects, the executives responsible for them, and the capabilities that Disney had built in strategy and operations for its parks and resorts.</p>
<p>Those parks and resorts owe their success not just to the family-friendly image carried over from Walt Disney’s animated films, but to the Walt Disney Company’s application of sophisticated business practices to every aspect of running the parks: promoting the parks to potential visitors via various channels, forecasting park attendance to a high degree of accuracy, ensuring that visitors have a wide variety of park experiences available to them, engineering the layout and other aspects of the parks (including the lines for rides) to optimally accomodate visitors, and doing all this in a way that both delights visitors and is financially sustainable.</p>
<p>Joni Newkirk, Scott Sanders, and their colleagues played key roles in all of these areas. When they left Walt Disney Company to form Integrated Insight they brought with them a wealth of expertise in providing entertainment, travel and leisure organizations services including market research and consumer insights, forecasting and feasibility analysis, revenue and profit optimization, and capacity and operational planning. It was thus natural for Michael McCall and the Inner Arbor Trust to turn to Integrated Insight for advice on how to turn the Inner Arbor vision into a successful park.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-competitive-assessment.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-competitive-assessment-embed.png"
         alt="Examples of attractions in the US and elsewhere used for comparisons with the proposed Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Examples of attractions in the US and elsewhere used for comparisons with the proposed Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="checking-out-comparable-attractions">Checking out comparable attractions</h2>
<p>Integrated Insight first looked at the proposed Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in the context of its likely market and of comparable and (in some cases) competitive attractions around the US and beyond.</p>
<p>In doing this Integrated Insight (following the lead of the Inner Arbor Trust) considered the Symphony Woods property not in isolation but rather as integrated with Merriweather Post Pavilion: events at the pavilion will drive visits to the park, and features of the park will enhance the pavilion experience.</p>
<p>Integrated Insight also considered all the park features envisioned in the original Inner Arbor concept plan: not just the Chrysalis, but also other elements like a sculpture garden, a café, and so on. This recognized that the appeal of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods for visitors will not be tied to any one park feature (just as, for example, visits to Disneyland aren’t driven by any one attraction). Instead Merriweather Park’s appeal will be a function of the total park experience.</p>
<p>As it turns out, some of the elements in the Inner Arbor concept plan are not part of the currently-approved plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, like the “treehouse” structures proposed as part of the elevated boardwalk. Others will likely be present, but not necessarily as part of Merriweather Park itself. For example, the proposed New Cultural Center on the Toby’s Dinner Theater site next to the park will provide indoor performance venues similar to those proposed in the concept plan.</p>
<p>However, the overall principle remains sound: what will attract visitors is the overall experience of the Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood and related cultural attractions in the Merriweather District&mdash;Howard Hughes Corporation’s term for the combination of the Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood and the Crescent Neighborhood surrounding it to the south and west.</p>
<p>There are 8 million people within 50 miles of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, an additional 6 million people between 50 and 100 miles away, and another 10 million people between 100 and 150 miles away&mdash;a total of 24 million within a 3-hour drive. These form the core markets for Merriweather Park, although it is also possible that visitors from further away will spend some time at the park while visiting the Baltimore or Washington DC area (e.g., as tourists or for family visits).</p>
<p>Thus Integrated Insight’s list of comparable and competitive venues includes a mix of local attractions and more remote ones. For example, the Inner Arbor concept plan included a proposed sculpture garden south of Merriweather Post Pavilion. As part of the research study Integrated Insight looked at almost a dozen sculpture parks elsewhere in the US and around the world, with park sizes ranging from less than 2 acres to over 1,000 acres, park entry fees of up to $12, and annual attendance from about 80,000 people to 1 million people.</p>
<p>These figures, along with the detailed descriptions in the research reports, provide some reasonable guidance on the possible appeal to visitors of a comparable sculpture garden within Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, along with what it would take to make such a garden artistically and financially successful.</p>
<p>Integrated Insight performed similar research on other comparable and competitive features, including outdoor amphitheaters (comparable to Merriweather Post Pavilion and the Chrysalis), indoor venues (comparable to the indoor theaters proposed in the Inner Arbor concept plan and planned as part of the New Cultural Center), and events and festivals (comparable to Wine in the Woods and music festivals at Merriweather Post Pavilion). (See the figure above for the types of attractions covered, and a sample of those described.)</p>
<p>One comparison of particular interest is to “cultural districts,” that is, areas within cities that feature multiple cultural attractions and are marketed as a single overall entity to prospective visitors. For example, the Pittsburgh Cultural District (overseen by the Pittsburgh Cultural Trust) covers 14 city blocks and features 7 theaters, 8 public parks and art installations, 12 art galleries, 50 restaurants and other places to dine, and 90 retail shops. In total the Pittsburgh Cultural District hosts 3,000 events and attracts 2 million visitors each year.</p>
<p>Again, this emphasizes that, just as the individual features within Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods should not be considered in isolation, Merriweather Park should not be considered in isolation from the broader downtown Columbia area, especially the Merriweather District south of The Mall in Columbia.</p>
<p>That area alone includes a host of cultural attractions existing, planned, and proposed, including the renovated Merriweather Post Pavilion, the Chrysalis and other features planned for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, the New Cultural Center planned for the Toby’s Dinner Theater site, and a proposed new Central Branch library and a possible indoor music venue in the Crescent Neighborhood. If all of these are realized they will work in concert (no pun intended) to make downtown Columbia an attractive destination for both locals and visitors interested in culture and the arts.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-survey.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-survey-embed.png"
         alt="Breakdown of participants in the Integrated Insight survey researching potential visitors to Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Breakdown of participants in the Integrated Insight survey researching potential visitors to Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="surveying-potential-park-visitors">Surveying potential park visitors</h2>
<p>In addition to researching comparable and competition attractions to Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, Integrated Insight conducted a survey of 1,000 people to (among other things) further estimate the total market for Merriweather Park, determine what proposed park features, special events, and other aspects were most appealing to potential visitors, learn what revenue opportunities there might be for park attractions, and estimate how many people were likely to visit the park and its associated venues.</p>
<p>The survey included four groups of people: locals (within 10 miles of the park), residents (within 11-50 miles), mid-Atlantic tourists (recent visitors to the Washington DC/Baltimore area from various mid-Atlantic states, and distant tourists (recent visitors to the Washington DC/Baltimore area from other states). In addition, participants were screened to include only those who had participated in various cultural events (concerts, festivals, live theater, etc.) within the last two years, had visited parks or cultural venues (museums, art galleries, sculpture gardens, etc.) within the same timeframe, or expressed significant interest in such participation or visits.</p>
<p>As noted above, the purpose of the research was to gauge potential visitors’ interest in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods as envisioned in the Inner Arbor concept plan, not just the Chrysalis. Participants in the survey read a three-paragraph description of Merriweather Park (“In the middle of the Baltimore/Washington Corridor lies a beautiful and extraordinary escape, a forested culture park, founded in music and adorned with art.”) and watched a video that included renderings of the proposed park features. They answered various questions to determine demographics, elicit their opinions on the park, and gauge the likelihood of their visiting it.</p>
<p>Some of the more interesting conclusions from the demographic survey were as follows, starting first with tourists:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Tourists are less affluent than locals (not surprising given the demographics of Howard County) and have a higher mix of families. Distant tourists are also relatively younger.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Most tourists to the Washington DC/Baltimore area are repeat visitors likely to be looking for new and interesting things to do.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Tourists have specific interests in cultural attractions, outdoor parks and performance venues, and festivals&mdash;all characteristics of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The overwhelming majority of visitors will have access to a car, and thus easy road access and parking for Merriweather Park will be an important factor in their willingness to visit.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Tourists participate in outdoor, cultural, and festival activities and have a high interest in continuing to do so. However attending concerts and live performances is not a primary driver of visits to Washington DC or Baltimore.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>The vast majority of tourists do not plan their entire trip but leave at least some time open for last-minute activities. They also tend to drop 1 out of 4 planned activities from their itineraries. Together these mean that people are open to stopping by Merriweather Park for some reason or other, but their likelihood of visiting is stronger if they’ve already committed to visit (e.g., by buying tickets to a festival or other event).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Tourists have a lot of choices for activities in Washington DC and Baltimore. The majority of them have family in the area, and in many cases family members accompany them, so positive word of mouth and family endorsements will be key for attracting people to Merriweather Park.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Other findings with respect to locals and residents are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Locals and residents generally have similar interests to tourists. Locals and residents with families are more interested in participating in activities than those without, except for attending concerts and visiting art galleries (for which interest is comparable).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Awareness of Merriweather-related events is relatively low compared to awareness of nationally-recognized events like the Cherry Blosson Festival: no more than half of locals and residents were aware of Wine in the Woods, with even fewer aware of any of the various Merriweather Post Pavilion music festivals (Capital Jazz Festival, Virgin Freefest, etc.).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Nevertheless, significant numbers of locals and residents have attended performances at Merriweather Post Pavilion or Toby’s Dinner Theater.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-appeal.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-appeal-embed.png"
         alt="Percentages of survey respondents expressing strong interest (7-10 on a 10 point scale) in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods as it’s proposed to be built out. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Percentages of survey respondents expressing strong interest (7-10 on a 10 point scale) in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods as it’s proposed to be built out. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="public-opinions-on-the-proposed-park">Public opinions on the proposed park</h2>
<p>In addition to the questions about visits to and interests in atractions in the Washington DC/Baltimore area, the Integrated Insight survey also asked people their opinions about the proposed Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. Those surveyed were asked to rate on a 10-point scale both their interest in attending an event at Merriweather Park and their interest in simply spending some time at the park. They were then asked to explain in their own words why they had rated their interest the way they did.</p>
<p>About two-thirds of all respondents indicated a strong interest (7-10 rating) in attending an event or just visiting the park. (See the figure above.)  Of those indicating strong interest, reasons included the park sounding fun, being different and unique, providing outdoor activities, and providing entertainment.</p>
<p>Only 10% of all respondents indicated they had little interest (1-3 rating) in visiting Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. The most common reasons for their low ratings were the distance they would have to travel (for example, for Virginia residents who would have to cross the Potomac River) and lack of interest in what the park had to offer. In general those with little interest were relatively older, were not living with other family members, and had less interest in attending live performances.</p>
<p>A significant fraction of respondents expressed extreme interest in both spending time at Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods and also attending events there (rating of 10 on both questions). The locals and residents expressing such extreme interest tended to be those who often hosted out-of-town visitors, more frequently attended performances at local venues, and more frequently visited The Mall in Columbia and a branch of the Howard County Library System.</p>
<p>The words survey respondents used to describe Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods were overwhelmingly positive: “great,” “wonderful,” “amazing,” “fantastic,” “spectacular,” and so on. Only 5% of the words used to describe the park were negative (e.g., “boring” or “overdone”).</p>
<p>The most appealing aspects of Merriweather Park were the outdoors aspect, the presence of multiple things to do, the events and performances, and the art and architecture. Almost half of all respondents could not name anything they did not find appealing. Of those who did name negatives the most frequently mentioned were distance, access, crowds, and parking&mdash;although it’s worth noting that less than 5% of respondents expressed concerns about parking and traffic.</p>
<p>Overall the survey respondents came away with a strong positive impression of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. A question eliciting word impressions of the likely effect of the park on people produced responses like “merry,” “happy,” “free,” and “relaxed,” while two thirds or more strongly agreed with statements that Merriweather Park would be “a place to explore,” “a place with diverse offerings,” “green,” and “a commmunity park I would be proud of.”  Almost as many people strongly agreed that Merriweather Park would be “a good fit for Maryland” and “a good fit for Columbia.”</p>
<p>The survey also asked respondents to rate the appeal of 12 individual park features, including all the elements proposed as part of the original concept plan (like the Treehouse Skywalk) or added later (like the Merriground play area). The majority of respondents rated all park elements as highly appealing (8-10 on a 10-point scale). The 6 most popular features were the Treehouse Skywalk, Fountain Plaza, and sculpture garden (proposed in the concept plan), the Picnic Table and Caterpillar (part of the approved Site Development Plan), and Merriweather Post Pavilion itself.</p>
<p>Since this series has been focused on the Chrysalis, it’s worth noting that the survey respondents found the Chrysalis to be a unique park element&mdash;84% could not name another venue it reminded them of. The most common responses from people referred to the Chrysalis as “amazing” or “great,” and highlighted its relatively intimate scale, architecture, and setting; only a small minority did not like the Chrysalis.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that people responded most strongly to those proposed aspects of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods that were most unlikely to be duplicated elsewhere&mdash;both unique events to attend (e.g., festivals and special performances) and unique park features that could be experienced during family outings. These aspects in turn increased the interest of those in the mid-Atlantic states and beyond in visiting the Washington DC/Baltimore area.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-demand-comparisons.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-demand-comparisons-embed.png"
         alt="Estimated annual attendance for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods once built out (including events at Merriweather Post Pavilion) compared to other US attractions. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Estimated annual attendance for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods once built out (including events at Merriweather Post Pavilion) compared to other US attractions. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="estimating-park-attendance">Estimating park attendance</h2>
<p>Finally, Integrated Insight used various questions combined with known attendance at existing destinations to estimate future annual attendance at the completed Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>The first step was to ask respondents to estimate how often they might visit, and what might draw them to the park. About half of locals and residents combined indicated they would likely visit at least a few times a year, with others indicating they would visit more often. As noted above, the most common reasons given for likely visiting were to attend specific performances or have a family outing.</p>
<p>Interest among tourists was also strong, with about three quarters of respondents indicating they would likely visit Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods if it were open while they were visiting. About half indicated their interest was strong enough they might plan a special visit to the area to visit Merriweather Park.</p>
<p>However expressed interest in visiting a place does not always translate into an actual visit. To get a better estimate, Integrated Insight started with the populations in the various groups of potential visitors (locals, residents, mid-Atlantic tourists, and distant tourists), reduced the population to include only that fraction expressing strong interest in visiting (from the survey results), and then for tourists further reduced it to include only those visiting the Washington DC/Baltimore area in the past year.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  This resulted in an estimated addressable market for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods of about 30 million people.</p>
<p>Intergrated Insight then further adjusted its estimates to account for any overstatements respondents might have made regarding their intentions to visit the park. For example, if one took at face value the information provided by respondents regarding past visits to Merriweather Post Pavilion and extrapolated that to the size of the estimated addressable market, one would conclude that the pavilion had about 8 times more visitors per year than the actual attendance figures.</p>
<p>In other words, a more accurate estimate of projected attendance would be only about one-eighth or about 12% of what a naïve estimate might suggest&mdash;the so-called “overstatement factor” or “coefficient of overstatement.”  Integrated Insight did similar calculations comparing survey respondents’ stated attendance at other venues compared to their actual attendance, and again obtained an overstatement factor of about 12%.</p>
<p>Integrated Insight used this overstatement factor in combination with other estimates (e.g., the number of potential venues at Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, their respective capacities, and the likely number of events per year) to generate estimates on park attendance due to events. They also compared these estimates to actual attendance at comparable other venues (included those discussed above, like the Pittsburgh Cultural District) to see whether the estimates were reasonable.</p>
<p>At the same time Integrated Insight generated similar estimates for people who might visit the park outside of special events, including those visiting for family or school outings. These were also adjusted using the same overstatement factor of 12% used in adjusting attendance estimates for events.</p>
<p>The final estimate for attendance at a completed Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods was approximately 2.5 million visitors per year. This estimate includes attendees at Merriweather Post Pavilion and other performance venues, general park visitors (e.g., for walks and family outings), visitors for school graduations and other school-related visits, and people attending various special events (e.g., weddings or family reunions).</p>
<p>This level of attendance would make Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods one of the more popular attractions in the Washington DC/Baltimore area&mdash;not nearly as popular as (for example) the National Air and Space Museum, but significantly more popular than Washington DC attractions like the US Botanic Garden and the Hirshhorn Museum and Sculpture Garden.</p>
<p>One problem presented by this level of attendance is how to accomodate visitors to Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, especially during large events where a lot of visitors might want to leave all at once after the event is over. Integrated Insight assisted with this task as well, applying its experience in “industrial engineering” from the Disney parks and resorts to the proposed park pathway system.</p>
<p>For example, in its endorsement of the design of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, the Howard County Design Advisory Panel also recommended that the Inner Arbor Trust review the width of planned pathways within the park (shown in the figure below). Integrated Insight provided estimates on how many people would be able to exit the park within a given time (in this case, 800 people per hour for each foot of pathway width).</p>
<p>Based on these estimates the Trust revised its plans in order to widen certain pathway segments from 8 feet wide to 10 feet wide. The resulting pathway system, together with the entrance drive into the park off Little Patuxent Parkway, should be able to support the exit of more than 13,000 people going north within a 20-minute period. This will be more than sufficient for all but the very largest events, especially considering that traditionally most people have parked south of Merriweather Post Pavilion, not north, and that the 2,500-space parking garage planned to support the pavilion will also be to the south.</p>
<p>Integrated Insight thus applied its expertise to multiple aspects of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, bringing deep experience in park marketing and management to the long-desired goal of developing Symphony Woods into an attractive and popular park. The next article in this series will focus on future features planned for Merriweather Park, features that will help round out the vision of the park that Integrated Insight’s survey respondents found so attractive.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-path-system.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-path-system-embed.png"
         alt="The proposed paths for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, classified according to size and accessibility. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  This diagram does not show the later increase in width from 8 feet to 10 feet on certain paths. It also does not show the addition of another accessible path running to the southern end of the Chrysalis. Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The proposed paths for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, classified according to size and accessibility. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  This diagram does not show the later increase in width from 8 feet to 10 feet on certain paths. It also does not show the addition of another accessible path running to the southern end of the Chrysalis. Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online and offline sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>For more on Integrated Insight, its history and team, and its work on the Merriweather Park project, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><em><a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Integrated-Insight-Overview-December-2014pptx.pdf">Integrated Insight, Inc.: Management consulting</a></em> [PDF], July 2014. A presentation of Integrated Insight’s executive team and their background, its areas of expertise, and representative projects.</li>
<li><em><a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Market-Regions-and-Comparative-Venue-Analysis-Final-2.pdf">Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods: Market regions and comparative analysis</a></em> [PDF], December 7, 2014. A presentation discussing the regions from which Merriweather Park would likely draw most of its visitors, and presenting information about other venues in the US and elsewhere with comparable attractions and appeal.</li>
<li><em>Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods: Product research and demand study</em> (<a href="http://inartrust.org/s/MPSW-Research-Report-Final-Part-1-a17w.pdf">part 1</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/MPSW-Research-Report-Final-Part-2.pdf">part 2</a>, and <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/MPSW-Research-Report-Final-Part-3.pdf">part 3</a>) [PDF], December 15, 2014. A presentation discussing the results of a public opinion survey concerning Merriweather Park and an analysis of potential annual attendance.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/155286541">Math of Architecture, Architecture of Math</a>” [67-minute video].  An event on November 3, 2015, sponsored by the Inner Arbor Trust to promote the Chrysalis project. Includes a presentation by Joni Newkirk starting at 10:40, discussing Integrated Insight and its research.</li>
<li><a href="/assets/texts/iat-dap-response-letter-2014-03-14.pdf">Letter from Michael McCall to Randy Clay</a>, March 14, 2014. A letter responding to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel’s request to the Inner Arbor Trust to review the widths of the planned pathways within Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Chrysalis amphitheater and its origins in the Inner Arbor concept plan, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">Michael McCall presentation of the Inner Arbor concept plan to Leadership Howard County</a> [33-minute video] (September 20, 2013).</li>
<li>The Chrysalis portion of the <a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">Inner Arbor pre-submission community presentation</a> (December 2, 2013).</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Michael McCall presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> [20-minute video] (February 26, 2014).</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>More correctly, Integrated Insight took the fraction of tourists who had visited the Washington DC/Baltimore area in the last two years, and divided that fraction by 2.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Subfloor and related construction</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/03/18/creating-the-chrysalis-subfloor-and-related-construction/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 18 Mar 2017 15:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/03/18/creating-the-chrysalis-subfloor-and-related-construction/</guid>
      <description>I present more details on the Chrysalis foundation/basement or “subfloor” and related construction, featuring the work of Whiting-Turner.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-subfloor-rendering.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-subfloor-rendering-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rendering of the reinforced concrete integrated foundation/basement system or “subfloor” to which the Chrysalis steel frame is attached. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Most of this structure is underground. Compare to the first figures of the two previous articles of this series. Image © 2015 Arup; used with permission,"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the reinforced concrete integrated foundation/basement system or “subfloor” to which the Chrysalis steel frame is attached. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Most of this structure is underground. Compare to the first figures of the two previous articles of this series. Image © 2015 Arup; used with permission,</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I present more details on the Chrysalis integrated foundation/basement system (“subfloor”) and other construction at the Chrysalis site, featuring the work of Whiting-Turner.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The previous two articles in this series discussed the fabrication and installation of the steel frame and skin of the Chrysalis. This article presents more information on the construction of the structural concrete integrated foundation/basement system (also known as the “subfloor”) to which the steel frame is attached. It features the work of the Whiting-Turner Contracting Company of Towson, Maryland.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/teachers-building.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/teachers-building-embed.jpg"
         alt="The Teachers Building at 10221 Wincopin Circle (completed 1967), constructed by Whiting-Turner as the first office building in Columbia, Maryland. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Teachers Building at 10221 Wincopin Circle (completed 1967), constructed by Whiting-Turner as the first office building in Columbia, Maryland. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="whiting-turner">Whiting-Turner</h2>
<p>As discussed in the previous article, for the steel frame and aluminum shell of the Chrysalis the Inner Arbor Trust used A. Zahner Company as the “design-build” contractor. For the remainder of the Chrysalis construction, including construction of the reinforced concrete structural “subfloor” that serves as a robust foundation beneath the Chrysalis stage, the Trust followed the more traditional “design-bid-build” process. After competitive bidding the Trust selected as general contractor the Whiting-Turner Contracting Company of Towson, Maryland.</p>
<p>Like Zahner, Whiting-Turner is a private company with a heritage that reaches back over a hundred years. It was founded in 1909 in Baltimore, Maryland, by G. W. C. Whiting, a Baltimore native and recent graduate in civil engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and his classmate LeBaron Turner. Turner left the company after five years, but Whiting continued his association with the company until his death in 1974 at the age of 91.</p>
<p>In its early days Whiting-Turner bid on contracts for paving roads and laying sewer pipes. In the 1920s it took on bigger projects, including the elevation of Loch Raven Dam in Baltimore (completed 1922) and the construction of various bridges. (Whiting-Turner later did work on both the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and the Delaware Memorial Bridge.)</p>
<p>1938 saw Baltimore native and Johns Hopkins engineering graduate
Willard Hackerman join Whiting-Turner. After rising through the ranks Hackerman replaced G. W. C. Whiting as president in 1955, and remained in that position until his death in 2014 at the age of 95. (His replacement was current president and CEO Timothy Regan.)  During Hackerman’s tenure Whiting-Turner literally changed the face of Baltimore, constructing (among others) Meyerhoff Symphony Hall, the National Aquarium, M&amp;T Bank Stadium (home of the Baltimore Ravens), and (last but not least) Jim Rouse’s Harborplace development.</p>
<p>Closer to home, Whiting-Turner constructed the Teachers Building (completed 1967), the first office building in Columbia and the former headquarters of the Columbia Association. Whiting-Turner also built the Columbia Mall (completed 1971) and oversaw its later expansion and renovation as The Mall in Columbia (completed 1999).</p>
<p>Whiting-Turner’s involvement with Columbia is thus as old as the city itself, and its work on the Chrysalis marks 50 years of Whiting-Turner projects in downtown Columbia.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-site-preparation.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-site-preparation-embed.png"
         alt="The Chrysalis construction site in the early stages of site preparation and grading. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Note the cistern under construction at the back of the site. (See also the figure below.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Chrysalis construction site in the early stages of site preparation and grading. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Note the cistern under construction at the back of the site. (See also the figure below.)  Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="preparing-the-chrysalis-site">Preparing the Chrysalis site</h2>
<p>Whiting-Turner’s role in the construction of the Chrysalis encompassed more than just the construction of the foundation/basement: they were ultimately responsible for tree protection, stormwater management, site utilities, electrical, plumbing and HVAC systems, roads and paths, and general site work&mdash;things that most users of the Chrysalis will likely not consciously notice, but which are critical to ensuring the safety, stability, and functioning of the Chrysalis as a whole.</p>
<p>As the general contractor Whiting-Turner selected and oversaw subcontractors who carried out these various tasks. However in the end it was Whiting-Turner’s work in coordinating the many details of construction and holding subcontractors to high standards of quality that would make the difference in bringing the project to a successful conclusion. This work was overseen by Whiting-Turner vice president (and Howard County resident) Jeff Cooper, project manager Peter “Tyge” Sheehan, and assistant project manager Sam Grayman.</p>
<p>After the Chrysalis groundbreaking in September 2015, Whiting-Turner established its on-site office and commenced preparing the site, once the Inner Arbor Trust had received a grading permit from Howard County. (This was separate from the building permit, which was issued later.)</p>
<p>Appropriately, given the concern expressed by many regarding the trees of Symphony Woods, Whiting-Turner’s first task was to ensure the health of trees near the construction area. In pursuit of this they hired a professional arborist to survey the trees in the vicinity and create a comprehensive plan to protect them. This included pruning the roots of trees next to areas scheduled to be excavated, placing mats to protect specific critical root zones, and doing nutrient feeding for certain key trees.</p>
<p>There is a small stream to the north of the Chrysalis and behind the Chrysalis to the east (toward South Entrance Road). In order to limit runoff and prevent construction debris from entering the stream buffer area, “super silt” fencing (filter fabric backed by chain link fencing) was placed around the construction area.</p>
<p>The next task was the construction of a new 8-inch water line to the Chrysalis site itself and to the Chrysalis service road (which runs from the Merriweather Post Pavilion VIP parking lot to the back of the Chrysalis). This water line serves fire suppression sprinklers in the Chrysalis itself, and supplies two new fire hydrants at the beginning and end of the Chrysalis service road. The line will also supply drinking water for general purposes in and around the Chrysalis, and provide water to subsequent phases of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>The construction of the water line illustrates the complications of land ownership in the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood. The source of the water for the new water line is an existing water main in South Entrance Road, and the new line passes under Symphony Woods Road, a private road owned by the Howard Hughes Corporation. Howard Hughes provided the Inner Arbor Trust an easement to make such a connection as part of a wide-ranging reciprocal easement agreement concluded between the two parties.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-cistern.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-cistern-embed.jpg"
         alt="The underground cistern behind the Chrysalis under construction. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The two vertical pipes (along with another not yet installed) were capped with manhole covers once the cistern was covered and the overlying surface paved. Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The underground cistern behind the Chrysalis under construction. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The two vertical pipes (along with another not yet installed) were capped with manhole covers once the cistern was covered and the overlying surface paved. Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-chrysalis-cistern">The Chrysalis cistern</h2>
<p>As evidenced by the July 2016 flash flood in Ellicott City, heavy rainstorms can result in very large quantities of runoff, especially when the rain falls onto impervious surfaces such as roads and buildings. A key task in construction, undertaken even before excavating the site, was therefore putting in place permanent measures to handle runoff into the nearby stream, particularly from the 12,000 square feet of the Chrysalis shell canopy&mdash;a pleated surface that acts as a very large rain gutter over the approximately 5,000 square feet of the Chrysalis stage.</p>
<p>On many building sites ponds are constructed to retain runoff prior to releasing it into the surrounding watershed. Aesthetic considerations and the limited area of the site required a different solution for the Chrysalis: instead of a pond Whiting-Turner installed an underground cistern, constructed of large corrugated metal pipes 5 feet in diameter and capable of storing almost 2,500 cubic feet of water in total (over 18,000 gallons).</p>
<p>The pleats of the Chrysalis shell carry rainwater and snow melt to the base of the nine shell legs where the canopy comes to the ground. At the base of each leg stormwater drains through beds of landscaping stone that sit on galvanized steel grates that top underground basins. The basins (resembling concrete bathtubs) then funnel the runoff into a network of underground pipes that empty into the cistern.</p>
<p>The runoff accumulates in the cistern until the cistern reaches its design capacity, at which point the cistern begins to release water into the stream system. The overall effect is to even out the flow of water and reduce high-velocity surges during severe downpours. This reduces the harmful effects of both local erosion of the stream bed and downstream sedimentation as the runoff proceeds into the Little Patuxent watershed.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-mud-mats.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-mud-mats-embed.jpg"
         alt="Pouring a concrete “mud mat” in preparation for constructing the walls of the structural subfloor. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is from the front of the Chysalis (stage right of the alpha stage) looking southeast. A completed mud mat is in the foreground, with previously-installed utility conduits running under the completed mat and the one being poured. Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Pouring a concrete “mud mat” in preparation for constructing the walls of the structural subfloor. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is from the front of the Chysalis (stage right of the alpha stage) looking southeast. A completed mud mat is in the foreground, with previously-installed utility conduits running under the completed mat and the one being poured. Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h3 id="site-excavation-and-mud-mats">Site excavation and mud mats</h3>
<p>After the cistern was installed Whiting-Turner began the mass excavation of the Chrysalis foundation/basement, preparing the site for the foundation construction and for installation of underground utilities, including conduits for supplying electricity to the theatrical lighting and audio systems.</p>
<p>The Chrysalis construction site was designed as closely as possible to be in a “net zero fill” condition. In other words, earth that was removed during the initial stages of construction was saved and then redeployed later in the construction process, instead of being hauled away. This was more cost efficient and also resulted in a lower carbon footprint for the construction as a whole.</p>
<p>As part of this process dirt and small stones were stockpiled on-site and covered with plastic for future use in backfilling the inside and outside of the Chrysalis foundation walls. Larger stones that could not be used for fill were removed by Whiting Turner’s subcontractor, Highland Turf, Inc., and moved to other locations within the Merriweather-Symphony Woods and Crescent neighborhoods, for use by the Howard Hughes Corporation in its own stream restoration projects.</p>
<p>Once the foundation was excavated, workers poured concrete “mud mats” (also known as “mud slabs”) following the outline of the Chrysalis’s exterior and interior walls. The mud mats served as a non-structural “foundation for the foundation,” providing a solid flat surface upon which reinforcing steel bars (rebar) and wooden molds for concrete (formwork) could be placed, and the concrete for the subfloor’s walls then poured.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-rebar.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-rebar-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rebar in place prior to completing the wooden formwork and pouring concrete for the subfloor walls and piers. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is from the front of the Chrysalis (stage right of the alpha stage) looking northeast. The heavy concentrations of rebar to the left and elsewhere are for the concrete piers to which the legs of the Chrysalis steel frame are attached. Note the two layers of rebar for the exterior wall, as well as the use of orange “rebar caps” to protect workers from exposed rebar. Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rebar in place prior to completing the wooden formwork and pouring concrete for the subfloor walls and piers. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is from the front of the Chrysalis (stage right of the alpha stage) looking northeast. The heavy concentrations of rebar to the left and elsewhere are for the concrete piers to which the legs of the Chrysalis steel frame are attached. Note the two layers of rebar for the exterior wall, as well as the use of orange “rebar caps” to protect workers from exposed rebar. Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="reinforced-concrete">Reinforced concrete</h2>
<p>Once the mud mats were poured, workers placed reinforcing steel bars or rebar in preparation for constructing the exterior and interior walls of the subfloor foundation.</p>
<p>First used extensively in the 19th century and perfected in the 20th, reinforced concrete is ubiquitous in modern construction. It works by combining the compressive strength of concrete with the tensile strength of steel&mdash;in other words, the concrete resists being pushed together and the steel resists being pulled apart. With the two bonded together in a composite, the resulting material resists loads placed on it without bending or breaking.</p>
<p>The reinforced concrete used in the Chrysalis is “cast in place” concrete: A mesh or “mat” of rebar was laid on top of the previously-poured mud mats, tied together, and inspected.  The rebar was laid especially densely in areas designed to bear heavier loads, such as the concrete piers to which the legs of the Chrysalis steel frame are attached. (See the figure above.)</p>
<p>Wooden modular paneled formwork was then constructed around the rebar to act as a mold, and high-strength “5,000 psi” concrete poured into the formwork and around the rebar.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  As the concrete cured it bonded to the steel bars (rebar is typically corrugated to make this bond stronger), giving the resulting walls or piers their strength.</p>
<p>Laying the rebar, constructing the formwork, and pouring concrete was made more complicated by the irregular shape of the Chrysalis foundation: looking at the structure from above (in so-called “plan view”) there are only four 90-degree angles apart from the stairs. In all other places the formwork needed to be carefully framed to correspond to the curves in the exterior walls and piers.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-exterior-wall.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-exterior-wall-embed.jpg"
         alt="Exterior wall of the Chrysalis subfloor after pouring concrete, and wooden formwork for the interior walls. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is from the front of the Chrysalis (stage right of the alpha stage) looking southeast. The wall to the right is the same as shown in the foreground in the previous figure, while the pier in the center is the same as that shown in the left of the previous figure. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Exterior wall of the Chrysalis subfloor after pouring concrete, and wooden formwork for the interior walls. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is from the front of the Chrysalis (stage right of the alpha stage) looking southeast. The wall to the right is the same as shown in the foreground in the previous figure, while the pier in the center is the same as that shown in the left of the previous figure. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-foundationbasement-walls-and-ceiling">The foundation/basement walls and ceiling</h2>
<p>In January 2016 construction of the Chrysalis was interrupted by the “Snowzilla” storm. After the storm was over and snow cleared from the site, the first major concrete pour of the foundation was successfully made, by Whiting-Turner’s subcontractor McGuire Concrete. First to be poured were the 8-inch-thick exterior walls and the associated concrete piers for attachment of the steel frame of the Chrysalis.</p>
<p>The exterior walls were reinforced with #3 and #5 rebar placed every 6 inches, laid crossways in two layers.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup>  The piers were reinforced with a larger size of rebar, laid so densely that special accomodations had to be made to fit in the anchor bolts to which the legs of the steel frame were attached.</p>
<p>(Special care was taken in surveying where to place these bolts, in order to position them as accurately as possible for connecting to the steel frame. The bolt positions were surveyed twice before pouring the concrete, and then surveyed again immediately afterward to ensure that the pouring operations had not disturbed them.)</p>
<p>Subsequently three interior walls were poured (also 8 inches thick, and similarly reinforced), running in parallel lines from the front of the Chrysalis to the back. These walls formed two interior rooms of a walkout basement, one to be used for electrical equipment providing 2,000 amps to the stage, and the other to be used for storage of Chrysalis-related equipment&mdash;almost 1,600 square feet in all.</p>
<p>In the back of the Chrysalis Whiting-Turner and its subcontractors constructed three sets of concrete stairs leading from ground level to stage level, for the use of performers, stagehands, and others. (Between the stairs is a loading dock with a space for a so-called ”scissors lift” to lift equipment from the dock to the stage.)</p>
<p>Once the interior walls were complete, the two basement rooms were covered with a 10-inch-thick slab of reinforced concrete, poured into formwork supported from below, with two layers of #5 rebar placed every 6 inches each way. This slab forms the ceiling for the basement rooms and a portion of the concrete floor for the stage.</p>
<p>The remaining spaces outside the two rooms were then filled with dirt saved from the earlier excavation, topped with a layer of gravel, and then capped with 10-inch-thick slabs of reinforced concrete to match up with the slab over the basement rooms. All of these slabs tied directly into the walls and piers, using rebar exposed for this purpose. (See the figure below.)</p>
<p>In total about 550 cubic yards of high-strength 5,000 psi concrete went into the structure. The concrete was reinforced by over 100,000 pounds of rebar.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-floor-molds.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-floor-molds-embed.jpg"
         alt="Workers preparing wooden formwork in preparation for pouring one of the reinforced concrete slabs forming the top of the subfloor. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is from the front of the Chrysalis looking east. The pier to the left is the same as that shown in previous figures. Note the exposed rebar on the perimeter walls, the piers, and the already-poured slab over the basement, as well as the utility conduits at the left. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Workers preparing wooden formwork in preparation for pouring one of the reinforced concrete slabs forming the top of the subfloor. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The view is from the front of the Chrysalis looking east. The pier to the left is the same as that shown in previous figures. Note the exposed rebar on the perimeter walls, the piers, and the already-poured slab over the basement, as well as the utility conduits at the left. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-structural-diaphragm">The structural diaphragm</h2>
<p>As previously discussed, all of these elements form what structural engineers call a “diaphragm,” integrating the vertical foundation walls and piers together with the horizontal floor into a single, strong structural whole. This is the same principle that makes a soup can much stronger with one of its lids fully attached to its cylinder, as the lid acts as a diaphragm, transferring forces exerted from one point throughout the rest of the can. The result is a strong rigid structure that can easily support the steel frame of the Chrysalis and the attached shell, and help the Chrysalis resist the various loads placed upon it.</p>
<p>Whiting-Turner’s role in constructing the Chrysalis did not end with the completion of the subfloor. As a general contractor its work is not finished until the completed Chrysalis structure and all related elements&mdash;railings, roads, pathways, etc.&mdash;are handed over to the Inner Arbor Trust. Discussion of the remaining elements, including some not yet finished at the time of writing, is deferred to a future article on the architectural details of the Chrysalis and the lansdcaping of its surroundings.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-rear-stairs.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-rear-stairs-embed.jpg"
         alt="Workers pouring concrete for the stairs at the back of the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The worker to the left is standing on one of the reinforced concrete piers of the Chrysalis; to the right are the doors leading into the two basement rooms of the subfloor. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Workers pouring concrete for the stairs at the back of the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The worker to the left is standing on one of the reinforced concrete piers of the Chrysalis; to the right are the doors leading into the two basement rooms of the subfloor. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online and offline sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>For more on Whiting-Turner, its history, its work on the Chrysalis project, and related topics, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>Whiting-Turner <a href="http://whiting-turner.com/portfolio/portfolio.html">portfolio of selected projects</a> and <a href="http://whiting-turner.com/expertise/expertise.html">areas of expertise</a>.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://whiting-turner.com/about_us/history/history.html">Whiting-Turner History</a>.”  Historical timeline on the Whiting-Turner web site.</li>
<li>“G.W.C. Whiting rites tomorrow,” page A17, <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, November 19, 1974. Obituary for G. W. C. Whiting.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2014-02-10/news/bs-ob-willard-hackerman-20140210_1_baltimore-school-greater-baltimore-committee-biography">Construction Magnate and Philanthropist</a>,” by Jacques Kelly, page A1, <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, February 11, 2014. Obituary for Willard Hackerman.</li>
<li>“Building Occupancy,” page F10, <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, September 17, 1967. Announcement of the opening of the Teachers Building in Columbia.</li>
<li>“Work Sped On Columbia Mall for Tomorrow’s Opening,” by Carleton Jones, page F1, <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, August 1, 1971. An article on the opening of the Columbia Mall.</li>
<li>“New wing of The Mall opens with a flourish,” by Jill Hudson Neal, page 14B, <em>Baltimore Sun</em> (Anne Arundel edition), September 19, 1999. The opening of a new wing of The Mall in Columbia after the mall’s renovation and expansion.</li>
<li>Inner Arbor Trust construction updates for <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-October-2015.pdf">September 2015</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-November-2015.pdf">October 2015</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-November-2015-3oxn.pdf">November and December 2015</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-February-2016.pdf">January and February 2016</a>, <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-March-2016.pdf">March 2016</a>, and <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/Inner-Arbor-Trust-Update-as-of-April-2016.pdf">April 2016</a>. Ongoing updates describing the progress of the construction of the Chrysalis.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://inartrust.org/chrysalis-steel-construction/">Chrysalis steel and concrete construction</a>.”  A collection of photographs (and a video) showing the progress of the construction of the Chrysalis.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforced_concrete">Reinforced concrete</a>.”  A Wikipedia article describing the history and use of reinforced concrete.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Chrysalis amphitheater and its origins in the Inner Arbor concept plan, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">Michael McCall presentation of the Inner Arbor concept plan to Leadership Howard County</a> [33-minute video] (September 20, 2013).</li>
<li>The Chrysalis portion of the <a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">Inner Arbor pre-submission community presentation</a> (December 2, 2013).</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Michael McCall presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> [20-minute video] (February 26, 2014).</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Portions of this article were adapted (with permission) from the construction updates published by the Inner Arbor Trust. (See the section “Further exploration.”)&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The strength of concrete is measured in terms of the amount of load it can bear without breaking, as measured in pounds per square inch, with more high-strength mixes costing more. Garden-variety applications like sidewalks typically use less-expensive 3,000 psi concrete.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The designations used in the US for rebar correspond to the approximate diameter of the rebar in eighths of an inch. Thus #3 rebar is ⅜ inches in diameter, #5 rebar ⅝ inches in diameter, and so on.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Shell skin</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/03/04/creating-the-chrysalis-shell-skin/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 04 Mar 2017 15:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/03/04/creating-the-chrysalis-shell-skin/</guid>
      <description>I explain how the skin of the Chrysalis was fabricated and installed by A. Zahner Company.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-zepps-rendering.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-zepps-rendering-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rendering of the ZEPPS® profiles underlying the shingles of the Chrysalis skin. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Compare to the first figure of the previous article in this series. Image © 2015 Arup; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the ZEPPS® profiles underlying the shingles of the Chrysalis skin. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Compare to the first figure of the previous article in this series. Image © 2015 Arup; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I explain how the skin of the Chrysalis was fabricated and installed by A. Zahner Company.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The previous article in this series discussed the steel frame that underlies the skin of the Chrysalis and enables the Chrysalis to support theatrical, wind, and other loads. This article explains how the complex and dynamic topography of the Chrysalis shell was made real, and how the colored aluminum shingles forming the skin of the Chrysalis were fabricated and attached to that topography. It features the work of A. Zahner Company of Kansas City, Missouri.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/emp-aerial-view.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/emp-aerial-view-embed.jpg"
         alt="Aerial view of the Museum of Pop Culture, formerly the Experience Music Project Museum, in Seattle, Washington. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Image © 2008 EMPISFM; used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Aerial view of the Museum of Pop Culture, formerly the Experience Music Project Museum, in Seattle, Washington. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2008 EMPISFM; used under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/">Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="a-zahner-company">A. Zahner Company</h2>
<p>In typical construction practice a building is first designed and then contractors submit bids to do the actual construction&mdash;the so-called “design-bid-build” process. This process assumes that once a suitable design has been created any contractor will suffice to construct it, as long as they are suitably competent at their trade.</p>
<p>However, given its unusual design the Chrysalis is far from being an ordinary building; the typical contractor would be at sea trying to figure out how to build it. Thus for the Chrysalis shell (i.e., everything above the relatively conventional structural concrete subfloor) the Inner Arbor Trust instead followed the “design-build” paradigm, in which a single contractor bears responsibility for the detailed design of the structure and all phases of its construction. That single contractor was A. Zahner Company of Kansas City, Missouri, commonly known as “Zahner.”</p>
<p>How did Zahner come to be given this task? Its origin dates to the turn of the 20th century: Andrew Zahner, the son of a German immigrant, started a small business in Missouri that made metal cornices for buildings, tin ceilings, and metal ductwork for heating systems&mdash;one of hundreds of similar businesses across the United States. His son Leo Zahner and his grandson Leo Zahner, Jr., continued to operate it as a local Kansas City business under the names A. Zahner &amp; Company and A. Zahner Sheet Metal Company.</p>
<p>After Leo Zahner, Jr., returned from serving in World War II he expanded Zahner’s work in so-called ”architectural metal” products, including metal roofs, decks, siding, and façades. The year 1958, when his son Bill was still a toddler, saw A. Zahner &amp; Company put in the lowest bid to replace the roof of the Liberty Memorial museum in Kansas City (now the National World War I Museum and Memorial), for a total price of $2,293&mdash;only $1,998 if Zahner were allowed to keep the copper panels from the old roof.</p>
<p>Zahner’s evolution from a local and regional business began after Bill Zahner graduated from college and joined the company. Although he majored in civil engineering, Bill Zahner was and is as much an artist as an engineer, including working as an amateur sculptor. Just as in the 1930s Ove Arup became enthused about modern architecture and its use of reinforced concrete, in the 1980s Bill Zahner became excited about the possibilities of using architectural metals in contexts beyond the mundane&mdash;going so far as to later write two books on the topic.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  He began promoting Zahner’s capabilities at national industry trade shows and reaching out to visionary architects like Frank Gehry (then relatively unknown).</p>
<p>Bill Zahner’s artistic bent was key to how Zahner evolved as a company and conceived of its mission. After he became the president of Zahner in the late 1980s, the soon-renamed A. Zahner Company began working on projects with ever higher profiles and ever more difficult challenges, like the American Heritage Center in Laramie, Wyoming (completed in 1993), with its distinctive dark copper roof, or the Museum of Science and Industry in Tampa, Florida (completed in 1995), with its doubly-curved stainless steel roof.</p>
<p>Bill Zahner’s friendship with Frank Gehry also bore fruit in a series of projects, including a 1988 exhibit for the 100th anniversary of the Sheet Metal Workers International Association, a collaboration for the Weissman Art Museum in Minneapolis (completed in 1993), and then, and most significantly, in the creation in Seattle of the Experience Music Project (completed in 2000), a museum funded by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-zepps-installation.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-zepps-installation-embed.jpg"
         alt="ZEPPS panels installed on the steel frame of the Chrysalis prior to installation of the shingles. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The triangles formed by the secondary steel were later filled in with ZEPPS panels fabricated on site, while gaps between the prefabricated panels were later covered by anodized aluminum sheet metal. Compare to the figure below. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>ZEPPS panels installed on the steel frame of the Chrysalis prior to installation of the shingles. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The triangles formed by the secondary steel were later filled in with ZEPPS panels fabricated on site, while gaps between the prefabricated panels were later covered by anodized aluminum sheet metal. Compare to the figure below. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="engineering-for-uniqueness">Engineering for uniqueness</h2>
<p>The Experience Music Project Museum (now known as the Museum of Pop Culture) posed challenges well beyond those of previous Zahner or Gehry projects. The building featured a radically curved set of exterior metal surfaces in both stainless steel and aluminum, with almost all parts of the surfaces required to be unique in some way. (See the figure above.)</p>
<p>In solving the problem of how to marry such surfaces to the underlying building structure, Zahner invented the Zahner Engineered Profile Panel Systems, or ZEPPS®. The ZEPPS process was made possible by the same technological trends later leveraged by Marc Fornes and his colleagues, including in particular the development of advanced 3D modeling software and its ability to interface to machine tools via Computer Numeric Control (CNC).</p>
<p>Zahner used these technologies to simplify the task of fabricating and installing the complex metal surfaces by reducing them to a set of customized individual panels, each of which could be separately fabricated and installed onto the building structure. The ZEPPS process and related technologies formed the basis of Zahner’s growth in both revenue and reputation in the 21st century.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  The fifth generation ZEPPS process was key to creating the Chrysalis.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-zepps-map.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-zepps-map-embed.png"
         alt="A map of how the prefabricated ZEPPS panels were installed in the Chrysalis steel frame. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  AB, EB, GB, HB, IB, LB, OB, PB, and PB mark the bottom of the nine legs of the Chrysalis, for which ZEPPS panels were fabricated on-site. Compare to the figure above. Image © 2016 A. Zahner Company; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A map of how the prefabricated ZEPPS panels were installed in the Chrysalis steel frame. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  AB, EB, GB, HB, IB, LB, OB, PB, and PB mark the bottom of the nine legs of the Chrysalis, for which ZEPPS panels were fabricated on-site. Compare to the figure above. Image © 2016 A. Zahner Company; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="designing-zepps-panels">Designing ZEPPS panels</h2>
<p>Viewed in isolation an individual ZEPPS panel is a relatively prosaic object: a set of pieces of aluminum (referred to as “profiles,” and resembling trusses or purlins in traditional structures), with one side of each profile attaching to the underlying structure and the other side attaching to a sheet of metal forming part of the exterior surface.</p>
<p>The true sophistication of the ZEPPS process is apparent only when contemplating a collection of ZEPPS panels fabricated for a particular structure, and the underlying computer technology that makes their fabrication and installation possible: In a structure like the Experience Music Project Museum or the Chrysalis each and every part of the exterior metal surface may have a different degree of curvature, may be curved in two directions and not just one, may attach to the underlying structure at different angles, may impose a different set of loads, and may need customized instructions for how to install it.</p>
<p>Zahner designs ZEPPS panels using the CATIA software discussed in a previous article: given a 3D model of the underlying structure and a 3D model of the desired metal surface, Zahner determines how many ZEPPS panels are needed, what shapes they must take, and other characteristics. For example, the individual profiles within a panel must be spaced at a suitable distance in order to bear the weight of the metal skin. Based on the loads imposed on the ZEPPS panels, they may also be made out of slightly different material, for example, lower-strength aluminum vs. higher-strength aluminum.</p>
<p>In some cases the underlying structure itself may need to be modified somewhat in order to account for the need to fit panels together in a certain way, for example, for ease of installation. This was required for the Experience Music Project Museum, among others, and helps explain Zahner’s typical practice of working very closely with the architect and often taking the role of a design-build contractor. Finally, since ZEPPS panels are typically fabricated at Zahner’s shops, they must be designed so that they can be easily shipped to the work site. (Zahner does additional computer work to find the optimal way to load multiple ZEPPS panels onto each truck.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-zepps-brackets.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-zepps-brackets-embed.jpg"
         alt="A close-up look at the underside of a ZEPPS panel and the curved saddle brackets by which it is installed on the steel frame of the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A close-up look at the underside of a ZEPPS panel and the curved saddle brackets by which it is installed on the steel frame of the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="installing-zepps-panels">Installing ZEPPS panels</h2>
<p>In total the Chrysalis features 88 ZEPPS panels containing a total of over 300 profiles. Most of the panels were fabricated at Zahner and shipped to the Chrysalis site, but 16 were fabricated on site: those covering the seven triangles formed by the steel frame and those making up the segments of the nine legs of the Chrysalis from the level of the stage floor down to the ground.</p>
<p>Each ZEPPS panel was pre-positioned on the ground and tilted to the correct angle before being hoisted to its designated position on the steel frame. The orientation of the panels was further adjusted while they were suspended (using a system of chains and pulleys), so that when the workers guided them into place they would match up with the underlying steel frame as closely as possible.</p>
<p>Each of the ZEPPS panels was then attached (using self-tapping galvanized screws) to the primary and (in the case of the seven triangles) secondary steel of the steel frame. Special curved saddle brackets were used to mate the profiles of the panels with the curvature of the steel tubes; this allowed the panels to be attached at any angle with respect to the steel. (See the figure above.)</p>
<p>The panels installed in the Chrysalis also have clear anodized aluminum sheet metal attached to them. (See the figures above and the figure below.)  Although this appears superficially similar to the external metal surfaces of other Zahner projects, it instead forms a substrate on which can be attached the true outer surface of the Chrysalis, factory-painted aluminum shingles in various shades of green, as well as an interior surface as discussed below.</p>
<p>Normally the ZEPPS panels themselves are invisible, residing between the underlying opaque building walls and the equally opaque exterior metal surface. In the Chrysalis, on the other hand, the steel tubes of the frame, the aluminum profiles of the ZEPPS panels, and the underside of the anodized aluminum sheet metal covering the panels are visible to anyone looking up, and contribute to the overall visual aesthetic of the structure. Among other things, this led the Inner Arbor Trust and Zahner to choose to use a matte finish on the sheet metal of the panels to provide a clean appearance and avoid glare from theatrical lights.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-shingle-rivets.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-shingle-rivets-embed.jpg"
         alt="Close-up of aluminum shingles of the Chrysalis skin, showing how the shingles were riveted to the sheet aluminum of the underlying ZEPPS panel. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Note the codes on the upper edge of each shingle specifying its type. See also the figure below. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Close-up of aluminum shingles of the Chrysalis skin, showing how the shingles were riveted to the sheet aluminum of the underlying ZEPPS panel. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Note the codes on the upper edge of each shingle specifying its type. See also the figure below. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-chrysalis-shingles">The Chrysalis shingles</h2>
<p>In the Experience Music Project Museum and other Zahner projects the metal skin is intended to appear as an unbroken surface to the viewer. The goal therefore is to minimize as much as possible the appearance of any seams between the metal sheets attached to the ZEPPS panels. The Chrysalis skin, on the other hand, is designed to have a highly scaled texture and variegated coloring. Hence it is formed of overlapping shingles, with the boundary between one shingle and the next quite apparent.</p>
<p>In order to securely attach the shingles they were riveted to the underlying aluminum sheets that were part of the ZEPPS panels. (See the figures above and below.)  Zahner pre-drilled each shingle in the shop to hold four aluminum rivets, and placed the holes so that the rivets attaching each shingle to the underlying ZEPPS panel would be located only at the upper end of the shingle. The rivets of a given shingle would then be covered by the overlapping lower end of the shingle above it in the structure. The result is that although thousands of rivets (more than 45,000 in all) were used in attaching the shingles, none of them are visible to the eye of the viewer standing on the ground.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>While the shingles break up the surface of the Chrysalis into thousands of pieces (8,200 shingles in all), through their color they also unify the whole of the structure into a single organic form.  As noted in a previous article, the shingles are painted in four different colors of green, with the various colored shingles placed on the structure to provide the appearance of a smooth color gradient from a darker green at the bottom to a lighter green at the top (a technique known as “dithering”).</p>
<p>Because the shingles will be exposed to the elements and (in the lower sections of the Chrysalis) to human beings, they are painted using Valspar Fluropon, a special architectural coating designed for exterior metal surfaces to provide resistance to UV rays, dirt and stains, and graffiti while retaining its original color and gloss over the years.</p>
<p>The shingles also had to be fabricated in 11 different shapes and sizes to account for the various positions on which they would be installed on the Chrysalis, which combined with the four possible colors made for up to 44 possible varieties of shingles. To assist the installers each shingle was imprinted with an alphanumeric code indicating what type of shingle it is, and thus at what points it could be installed on the structure. (See the figure below.)</p>
<p>The skin of the Chrysalis, including the ZEPPS panels and the shingles, thus forms a giant three-dimensional jigsaw puzzle, with all pieces needing to be precisely designed and fabricated so that they will come together easily without gaps or misalignments and be installable by a relatively small group of people. Unlike a jigsaw puzzle, the skin must also bear loads without failure or any significant deformation, adapt to changing temperatures throughout the four seasons, and retain its structural integrity and visual beauty over the years. Zahner is arguably one of the few contractors, if not the only contractor, that could have accomplished this task within the timeframe and budget allotted to it.</p>
<p>The next article in this series will discuss the structural concrete subfloor of the Chrysalis and related construction on the site.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-shingle-map.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-shingle-map-embed.png"
         alt="A map of how shingles were installed over the ZEPPS panels on one part of the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The alphanumeric codes indicate the type of shingle to be placed at each location. Compare to the figure above. Image © 2016 A. Zahner Company; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A map of how shingles were installed over the ZEPPS panels on one part of the Chrysalis. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The alphanumeric codes indicate the type of shingle to be placed at each location. Compare to the figure above. Image © 2016 A. Zahner Company; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>For more on A. Zahner Company, its work on the Chrysalis project, and related topics, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_action=doc&amp;p_docid=0EAF3D6DE688A8D5">William Zahner markets metal company on complex know-how</a>,” by Don Lee, <em>Kansas City Star</em>, February 11, 1992 [paywalled]. An article from soon after Bill Zahner became president of A. Zahner Company.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://nl.newsbank.com/nl-search/we/Archives?p_action=doc&amp;p_docid=0EAF44FACE91EBBE">Zahner celebrates 100 years proving their mettle in metal</a>,” by Randolph Heaster, <em>Kansas City Star</em>, November 25, 1997 [paywalled].  Discusses the past and present of A. Zahner Company on the occasion of its celebrating its centenary.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://blog.azahner.com/2015/03/09/transcript-from-bill-zahner-crosby-kemper-iii-interview/">Transcript from Interview with L. William Zahner &amp; Crosby Kemper III</a>”. A 2015 interview in which Bill Zahner discusses the history and working methods of A. Zahner Company.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/11/kansas-city-powerhouse-of-american-architecture/407815/">Kansas City, Powerhouse of American Architecture</a>,” by Kriston Capps, <em>The Atlantic</em>, November 2015. A profile of A. Zahner Company. See also earlier profiles in <em><a href="https://www.wired.com/2010/07/st_alphageek_billzahner/">Wired</a></em> and <em><a href="http://www.metropolismag.com/October-2005/Sheet-Metal-Magicians/">Metropolis</a></em>.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/155286541">Math of Architecture, Architecture of Math</a>” [67-minute video].  An event on November 3, 2015, sponsored by the Inner Arbor Trust to promote the Chrysalis project. Includes a presentation by Bill Zahner starting at 46:44, discussing various Zahner projects, including most notably the Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/152152167">Full STEAM Ahead</a>” [62-minute video]. An event on November 3, 2015, sponsored by the Inner Arbor Trust to promote STEM topics associated with the Chrysalis. Includes a brief presentation by Bill Zahner starting at 50:20 discussing the work of A. Zahner Company and the use of architectural metals.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.azahner.com/zepps.cfm">ZEPPS®</a>”. An overview of Zahner’s ZEPPS technology, including a link to a 144-page document containing more details and a portfolio of projects.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.3ds.com/customer-stories/single/a-zahner-company/">A. Zahner Company Customer Story</a>”. A video and written case study describing how Zahner used Dassault Systèmes’s 3DEXPERIENCE platform (including CATIA) and its Design for Fabrication on Cloud service to fabricate the Chrysalis.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design%E2%80%93build">Design-build</a>”. A Wikipedia article providing an overview of the design-build concept.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Chrysalis amphitheater and its origins in the Inner Arbor concept plan, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">Michael McCall presentation of the Inner Arbor concept plan to Leadership Howard County</a> [33-minute video] (September 20, 2013).</li>
<li>The Chrysalis portion of the <a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">Inner Arbor presubmission community presentation</a> (December 2, 2013).</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Michael McCall presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> [20-minute video] (February 26, 2014).</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p><em>Architectural Metals</em> (1995) and <em>Architectural Metal Surfaces</em> (2004).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Zahner’s revenue grew from about $5M when Bill Zahner took over to about $45M in 2010, a period during which its number of employees roughly doubled. By 2010 Zahner had also built a new 10,000sf annex to its original factory in Kansas City, and had opened a second facility in Dallas, Texas.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The Inner Arbor Trust, Zahner, and the architects also made several other design changes that individually were relatively small but overall significantly improved the public’s viewing experience. For example, the custom ZEPPS panels filling the seven triangles in the steel frame were designed so that one of the profiles within each panel was made longer and oriented in the direction of the pleats in the skin.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>The shingles at the top of each “arch” of the Chrysalis are an exception to this, since they overlap the shingles to either side. In this case the shingles are riveted on the side facing away from a viewer on the ground.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Shell structure</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/02/18/creating-the-chrysalis-shell-structure/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 18 Feb 2017 13:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/02/18/creating-the-chrysalis-shell-structure/</guid>
      <description>I explore the steel frame underlying the skin of the Chrysalis, as designed by the structural engineering group of Arup.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-steel-frame-rendering.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-steel-frame-rendering-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rendering of the steel frame underlying the Chrysalis skin, and the structural concrete subfloor to which the frame is attached. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Arup."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the steel frame underlying the Chrysalis skin, and the structural concrete subfloor to which the frame is attached. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Arup.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I explore the steel frame underlying the skin of the Chrysalis, as designed by the structural engineering group of Arup.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The previous article in this series discussed the demanding structural loads imposed on the Chrysalis by its function as a professional performance stage. In this article I explore the steel frame that underlies the skin of the Chrysalis and enables the Chrysalis to support those and other loads, as designed by Arup and fabricated and erected by the Walters Group and its subsidiary Metropolitan Walters.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/sydney-opera-house-utzon-arup.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/sydney-opera-house-utzon-arup-embed.jpg"
         alt="The original Sydney Opera House design by Jørn Utzon, from the drawings submitted to the design competition (top), and the final design reflecting advice from Arup on how the building shells might be fabricated (bottom). (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Note the replacement of the original continuous shell roofs with multiple series of concrete ribs. Images from the Sydney Opera House online gallery of the State Archives of New South Wales, Australia, from the competition drawings and the “Yellow Book” respectively."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The original Sydney Opera House design by Jørn Utzon, from the drawings submitted to the design competition (top), and the final design reflecting advice from Arup on how the building shells might be fabricated (bottom). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Note the replacement of the original continuous shell roofs with multiple series of concrete ribs. Images from the <a href="https://gallery.records.nsw.gov.au/index.php/galleries/sydney-opera-house/">Sydney Opera House online gallery</a> of the State Archives of New South Wales, Australia, from the competition drawings and the “Yellow Book” respectively.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="arup-and-structural-engineering">Arup and structural engineering</h2>
<p>The previous article in this series discussed the role of Arup’s theater consulting group. However, Arup began life as a consulting firm specializing in structural engineering, the task of which, according to founder Ove Arup, is “to design stable and economical structures of different kinds to meet the requirements for which these structures are needed”. In other words, the job of the structural engineer is to translate the vision of the architect into a structure that is fit for the purposes for which it is intended.</p>
<p>After beginning his career working on marine structures (e.g., piers, quays, and breakwaters), Ove Arup became interested in both modern architecture and the then-new technology of reinforced concrete that made new types of structures possible. He set out on his own in 1946, founding Arup and Associates as an independent consulting engineering firm. He and his colleagues soon found themselves working at the cutting edge of architectural practice, as exemplified by the firm’s work on the Sydney Opera House.</p>
<p>In the 1950s the government of the state of New South Wales in Australia set out to create a new center for the arts on a prominent site jutting out into Sydney Harbour. The selection committee for the design competition found itself entranced by an entry from Danish architect Jørn Utzon that featured a series of sail-like shells enclosing the two main performance spaces. (See the figure above.)  Eager to get the project underway, the government authorized the start of construction, although no one had yet figured out how to build the shells Utzon had envisioned.</p>
<p>As the consulting engineers for the project, Arup the firm found itself at the center of the controversy over how to build what became known as the Sydney Opera House, including most notably how to analyze proposed designs to ensure their safety and stability. Working with Utzon, Arup engineers eventually found a workable solution: converting Utzon’s shells into a series of pre-cast concrete ribs of varying sizes, with the ribs arranged in sequence to form a shell-like roof.</p>
<p>To make the structural analysis tractable (especially given the limited computer technology available at the time), the ribs were designed so that both the sides of the arches formed by the ribs (looking at them head on) and the profile when they were connected (looking at them from the side, as in the figure above) were composed of circular arcs.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Although the Sydney Opera House was dogged by controversies, delays, and cost overruns, the structure was eventually completed and subsequently hailed as one of the world’s iconic structures&mdash;and, along with the Sydney Harbour Bridge, the symbol of Sydney to the world. It also bolstered the reputation of Arup as a “go to” firm for clients working with world-class architects to get visionary projects built.</p>
<p>That reputation in turn helped Arup in its competition to attract and retain the best engineering talent. As Ove Arup said in his “Key Speech” describing his vision for Arup and principles for its operation, in practice the work of Arup or any other engineering firm can devolve into a series of mundane and potentially boring tasks: “designing endless reinforced concrete floors, taking down tedious letters about the missing bolts, changing some details for the nth time, attending site meetings dealing with trivialities, . . .&mdash;what is exciting about that?”</p>
<p>Thus while the Inner Arbor Trust valued Arup for its proven excellence in working with cutting edge designers to manifest totally unique structures, the Chrysalis was for Arup an opportunity to engage its staff in an interesting and innovative project, even though the scale of the Chrysalis was much smaller than that of the projects that formed the bulk of Arup’s portfolio.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-wind-loading.gif">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-wind-loading-embed.gif"
         alt="One of the eight wind load scenarios analyzed by Arup, one for each compass direction. (Click for a high-resolution animated image showing all of the scenarios.)  Warm colors indicate positive pressures on the shell, while cool colors indicate negative pressures (suction). Image © 2015 Arup; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>One of the eight wind load scenarios analyzed by Arup, one for each compass direction. (Click for a high-resolution animated image showing all of the scenarios.)  Warm colors indicate positive pressures on the shell, while cool colors indicate negative pressures (suction). Image © 2015 Arup; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="analysing-the-structure">Analysing the structure</h2>
<p>The responsibility for structural engineering for the Chrysalis fell primarily on those in Arup’s Washington DC office, including the young structural engineer Jordan Woodson and his senior mentors at Arup, Matt Larson and Brian Markham. Woodson had wanted to work at Arup ever since he was a freshman in college, and joined the firm soon after completing his graduate degree. In his time with Arup he had worked on projects ranging from the new Mexico City international airport (comprising 8 million square feet, over a thousand times the size of the Chrysalis stage) to the proposed 11th Street Bridge Park project in DC.</p>
<p>The task assigned to Woodson and his colleagues was to determine how the Chrysalis could be built in a manner that would maintain the artistic integrity of Marc Fornes’s design, handle the various loads placed upon it (including the skin itself, the natural forces of wind and snowfalls, and theatrical point loads), and fit within the budgetary and other constraints of the project.</p>
<p>This included looking at possible failure scenarios under load&mdash;as Woodson remarked, “To understand how something stands up you have to understand how it might fall down”. The high asymmetrical arch at the rear of the stage, one of the most visually striking features of the Chrysalis, required particular attention in order to ensure the overall stability of the structure.</p>
<p>Arup considered multiple ideas for instantiating the Chrysalis shell, including riveted aluminum or steel shingles (as in the “Pleated Inflation” structure discussed in a previous article), shingles supplemented by various types of structural reinforcements, and “sandwich panels” of metal sheets placed back to back.</p>
<p>In the end the configuration chosen as best meeting structural, budgetary, and other constraints was a “rib cage” or “skeleton” of steel tubes (“hollow structural section” or HSS pipe) to provide a frame underneath the shell skin, bearing the weight of the skin above and of theatrical loads hanging below. The form of the frame somewhat resembles that of the geometric mesh in the “mesh inflation” process used to create the form of the Chrysalis, with large “primary steel” tubes resembling the “lengthwise” curves of the mesh and smaller “secondary steel” tubes resembling the “crosswise” lines of the mesh.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  (See the first figure above.)</p>
<p>In designing the steel frame Arup performed analyses to determine the effects of various types of load, dividing the primary and secondary steel of the frame into 2-inch straight sections to simplify the computations. Under Arup’s direction BMT Fluid Mechanics of London performed extensive wind tunnel testing on a model of the structure, looking at wind forces of up to 60,000 pounds from each of the eight compass directions (north, northeast, east, and so on).</p>
<p>Arup then combined the pressure profiles produced from the wind tunnel testing with 33 different types of theatrical loading of up to 42,000 pounds, arising from the various configurations of the alpha and beta stages discussed in the previous article. In total the final analysis covered 350 different load scenarios.</p>
<p>The results of the load simulations then determined the size of the structural elements in the frame: places in the structure where the loads were greatest called for larger diameter tubes, with smaller diameter tubes used in areas with lesser loads. The final frame includes 1,700 feet of tubes for the frame, with the primary steel being 10 inches in diameter and the smaller crosswise secondary steel 8 inches in diameter.</p>
<p>The primary steel tubes at the bottom of the frame (comprising the “touch down” points of the shell’s arches) are attached to concrete piers, which in turn are attached to a structural concrete subfloor. The subfloor acts as a “diaphragm” to provide further rigidity to the overall structure and resist the thrust of the arches. (See the first figure above and the last figure below.)  The subfloor supports the stage floor itself (comprised of hardwood panels), while underneath is located a space for storage and electrical equipment.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-theatrical-loading.gif">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-theatrical-loading-embed.gif"
         alt="One of the theatrical load scenarios analyzed by Arup. (Click for a high-resolution animated image showing more scenarios.)  The locations of the downward-pointing arrows correspond to the locations of the particular strong points used for each scenario. The length of each arrow indicates the magnitude of the force applied at that point. Image © 2015 Arup; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>One of the theatrical load scenarios analyzed by Arup. (Click for a high-resolution animated image showing more scenarios.)  The locations of the downward-pointing arrows correspond to the locations of the particular strong points used for each scenario. The length of each arrow indicates the magnitude of the force applied at that point. Image © 2015 Arup; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="fabricating-and-erecting-the-frame">Fabricating and erecting the frame</h2>
<p>With Arup having designed the steel frame underlying the Chrysalis shell, the next step was to build it. The Inner Arbor Trust had tasked A. Zahner Company of Kansas City, Missouri, with overall responsiblity for the construction of the portion of the Chrysalis structure above the concrete subfloor. (The next article in this series will discuss Zahner’s role in more detail.)</p>
<p>Zahner then turned to the Walters Group of Hamilton, Ontario, a group of companies primarily focused on creating complex structural steel for commercial and industrial construction projects throughout North America, and its subsidiary, New York City-based Metropolitan Walters, specialists in erecting complex steel structures. (Metropolitan Walters and Arup had worked together previously on other projects, including Alice Tully Hall at the Juillard School of Music in New York City.)</p>
<p>As discussed above, as designed by Arup the Chrysalis frame included both long curved elements (the primary steel forming the arches of the Chrysalis and following the line of the pleats in the skin) and shorter straight elements (secondary steel) binding together the curved elements. The primary steel tubes were too long to be fabricated as single pieces, especially given their degree of curvature. Instead they were fabricated as combinations of less-curved shorter tubes, with the tubes then joined on-site to form the final curves of the frame.</p>
<p>Steel structural elements can be either welded together or bolted together. In order to simplify erection of structures and lower costs, the preferred procedure is to minimize the amount of welding to be done on-site. Metropolitan Walters followed this practice for the Chrysalis: the curved elements were fabricated with circular flanges welded in the shop to the 10-inch primary steel tubes and pre-drilled with holes for bolts. Matching elements were then bolted together after they arrived at the construction site.</p>
<p>A similar practice was followed for the secondary steel forming the straight cross pieces: in the shop short sections of 8-inch tubes with circular flanges were welded to the 10-inch primary steel tubes, matching circular flanges were welded to the ends of the straight 8-inch secondary steel tubes used for the cross pieces joining the larger elements, and holes drilled in the flanges. Bolts were again used to connect together the secondary steel and primary steel elements at the construction site.</p>
<p>Those familiar with traditional arches will recall that the two sides of an arch have to be supported during construction. Only after adding the top element of the arch (the “keystone” for stone arches) is the arch stable and able to stand on its own. From this viewpoint the Chrysalis steel frame is “all arches”: the entire structure was unstable while being erected until the point where it was (almost) complete. To address this, Metropolitan Walters used 16 temporary towers and supplemental guy wires to hold up partially-erected sections of the frame during construction.</p>
<p>Often when steel structural elements are joined they are designed so that the two elements are able to rotate somewhat relative to each other. In contrast, the bolted connections between the individual tubes of the Chrysalis frame are “moment connections”<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup> designed to remain rigid and act as a continuous element under load. Since the lowest elements in the frame are connected to the concrete piers and the structural concrete subfloor for the stage, the combined structure (frame plus piers plus subfloor) forms a single rigid structure able to resist loads with a minimum of deflection.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-steel-frame-as-constructed.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-steel-frame-as-constructed-embed.jpg"
         alt="The steel frame underlying the Chrysalis skin and the concrete piers and structural concrete subfloor to which it is attached, prior to the addition of the skin. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Compare to the figure above, and note the points at which the individual elements of the primary and secondary steel are bolted to each other. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The steel frame underlying the Chrysalis skin and the concrete piers and structural concrete subfloor to which it is attached, prior to the addition of the skin. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Compare to the figure above, and note the points at which the individual elements of the primary and secondary steel are bolted to each other. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="theatrical-steel-and-strong-points">Theatrical steel and strong points</h2>
<p>The primary and secondary steel tubes form an overall skeleton providing structural integrity for the Chrysalis. However they do not directly support the actual Chrysalis skin, nor (with some exceptions) do they directly bear theatrical loads.</p>
<p>As discussed in the previous article, theatrical loads for Chrysalis productions are to be hung from a set of “strong points” on the structure, each rated to bear a certain amount of load (2,200 pounds of vertically suspended weight for strong points serving the alpha stage). The strong points are designed to form a rectangular grid, but the arrangement of primary and secondary steel tubes is in no way grid-like.</p>
<p>The desired geometry is provided by the separate “theatrical steel,” a set of (relatively) thin steel tubes each of which runs from the front of the frame to the rear of the frame. The theatrical steel is bolted to the primary steel, using flanges welded in the shop for this purpose. The strong points themselves are in the form of small steel loops welded to the theatrical steel at regular intervals. (See the figure below.)</p>
<p>As hinted above, there are also a few strong points attached directly to the primary steel, mainly to support speakers to be hung at the sides of the main arch for the alpha stage. (See the strong point diagram linked to in the “For further exploration” section below.)</p>
<p>The combination of primary steel, secondary steel, and theatrical steel making up the frame is capable of supporting up to 58,000 pounds of equipment, assuming use of the alpha stage strong point grid, the attach points for speakers for the alpha stage, and the beta stage strong point grid.</p>
<p>In the steel frame of the Chrysalis Arup has provided an efficient and effective solution to the problem of handling structural loads while retaining the overall aesthetic virtues of the Chrysalis’s design. The frame also adds visual interest to the underside of the shell, complementing the dynamic green color of smooth aluminum shingles on the outer skin with the silver-gray industrial aesthetic of galvanized steel tubes and flanged, bolted splices.</p>
<p>The next article will discuss the outer skin of the Chrysalis and how it is attached to and supported by its steel frame.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-steel-frame-closeup.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-steel-frame-closeup-embed.png"
         alt="A view from the Chrysalis stage looking up at a portion of the steel frame. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) The thin straight elements positioned at regular intervals are not part of the steel frame itself; they are part of the ZEPPS units holding up the shingles of the skin. (See the next article in this series.) Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A view from the Chrysalis stage looking up at a portion of the steel frame. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The thin straight elements positioned at regular intervals are not part of the steel frame itself; they are part of the ZEPPS units holding up the shingles of the skin. (See the next article in this series.)  Image © 2017 Frank Hecker; available under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>For more on Arup, its work in structural engineering in general, and on the Chrysalis project in particular, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>Arup’s <a href="http://www.arup.com/services/structural_engineering">structural engineering</a> practice</li>
<li>Ove Arup’s “<a href="http://www.arup.com/publications/the_key_speech">Key Speech</a>” outlining Arup’s philosophy, mission, and organizational practices</li>
<li><a href="http://publications.arup.com/publications/t/the_arup_journal/1985/the_arup_journal_1985_issue_1">Ove Arup’s 90th birthday issue</a> of <em>The Arup Journal</em>. Contains several articles and speeches by Ove Arup, including “What is a Structural Engineer.”</li>
<li>“Sydney revisited,” by Jack Zunz, in <a href="http://publications.arup.com/publications/t/the_arup_journal/1988/the_arup_journal_1988_issue_1"><em>The Arup Journal</em>, 1988, Issue 1</a>. A 1987 lecture by Arup’s lead on the Sydney Opera House.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.curbed.com/2016/6/8/11876004/ove-arup-engineering-design-modernism">Engineering is Not a Science</a>,” by Patrick Sisson. A 2016 Curbed article that includes a good summary of Ove Arup’s life and work.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.archdaily.com/428945/how-arup-became-the-go-to-firm-for-architecture-s-most-ambitious-projects">How Arup Became The Go-To Firm for Architecture’s Most Ambitious Projects</a>,” by Ian Volner. A 2013 ArchDaily article that discusses Arup’s more recent projects.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/152152167">Full STEAM Ahead</a>” [62-minute video]. An event on November 3, 2015, sponsored by the Inner Arbor Trust to promote STEM topics associated with the Chrysalis. Includes a presentation by Jordan Woodson of Arup starting at 29:40 discussing structural analysis of the Chrysalis.</li>
<li>“<a href="/assets/texts/chrysalis-loading-diagram.pdf">Chrysalis Theatre Loading Plan</a>”. A diagram showing the location of strong points and instructions for their use.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Walters Group, Metropolitan Walters, their role in fabricating and erecting the steel frame of the Chrysalis, and structural steel in general, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://www.waltersgroupinc.com/about/walters-group/">Walters Group</a>”. Corporate “about” page.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.waltersgroupinc.com/metropolitan-walters-selected-as-partner-in-columbia-marylands-chrysalis-project/">Metropolitan Walters selected as partner in Columbia Maryland’s Chrysalis project</a>”. Press release.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/57d2b329725e255de6c67d03/1473426224321/Structurally+Sound+Modern+Steel+Construction+September%2C+2016.pdf">Tubular Transformation</a>”. A 2016 article in <em>Modern Steel Construction</em> describing the steel frame of the Chrysalis.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/177051299">Erecting the Chrysalis steel</a>” [8-minute video]. Offers a glimpse at the process of erecting the Chrysalis steel frame.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://engineering.purdue.edu/~jliu/courses/CE470/PPT_PDF/AISC_ConnectionsJL.pdf">Structural Steel Connections</a>,” by the American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC). A presentation discussing the various ways to connect structural steel members. Slides 16 and 17 address moment connections.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Chrysalis amphitheater and its origins in the Inner Arbor concept plan, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">Michael McCall presentation of the Inner Arbor concept plan to Leadership Howard County</a> [33-minute video] (September 20, 2013).</li>
<li>The Chrysalis portion of the <a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">Inner Arbor pre-submission community presentation</a> (December 2, 2013).</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Michael McCall presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> [20-minute video] (February 26, 2014).</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The analysis for the Sydney Opera House was done in the early 1960s.  Recall from the earlier article on the design of the Chrysalis that this was  before the invention of NURBS curves and surfaces and of techniques to analyze such surfaces under load.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>One major difference is that the original mesh was composed only of quadrilaterals, while the steel frame uses triangles at key points to provide increased rigidity for the structure.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>In this context “moment” is another word for force.  A moment connection is named thus because it transmits forces unmodified across the connection point, with minimal deflection of the structure at that point due to so-called “bending moments” that act to rotate one element relative to the other.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Theater</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/01/21/creating-the-chrysalis-theater/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 21 Jan 2017 23:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/01/21/creating-the-chrysalis-theater/</guid>
      <description>I discuss how the Chrysalis will function as a professional stage, as designed by the theater consulting group of Arup.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-alpha-stage-rendering.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-alpha-stage-rendering-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rendering of the Chrysalis alpha stage in use, including suspended speakers and lighting equipment. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The beta stage is to the right (stage left). Image © 2015 Marc Fornes; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of the Chrysalis alpha stage in use, including suspended speakers and lighting equipment. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The beta stage is to the right (stage left). Image © 2015 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I discuss how the Chrysalis will function as a professional stage, as designed by the theater consulting group of Arup.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The previous article in this series focused on the overall architectural form of the Chrysalis amphitheater, designed to function as a stage, pavilion, and sculpture for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. In this article I discuss in more detail those aspects of the Chrysalis relating to its function as a professional performance stage.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/snape-maltings-concert-hall.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/snape-maltings-concert-hall-embed.jpg"
         alt="Snape Maltings Concert Hall, built in 1966&ndash;1967 as part of the repurposing of a old malt house in the village of Snape, in Suffolk, England. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) This was one of Arup’s first major projects in theater design and acoustic consulting. Image © 2016 Arup; from the Arup Journal 50th Anniversary Issue."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Snape Maltings Concert Hall, built in 1966&ndash;1967 as part of the repurposing of a old malt house in the village of Snape, in Suffolk, England. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  This was one of Arup’s first major projects in theater design and acoustic consulting.  Image © 2016 Arup; from the <a href="http://publications.arup.com/publications/t/the_arup_journal/2016/the_arup_journal_50th_anniversary_issue"><em>Arup Journal</em> 50th Anniversary Issue</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="arup-and-theaters">Arup and theaters</h2>
<p>Arup Group Limited, usually known simply as “Arup,” is a large consulting firm with more than 13,000 employees and offices in almost 100 locations around the world, including New York and Washington DC. Originally founded in 1946 by the British engineer Ove Arup, Arup the firm is known in particular for its collaboration with leading architects to create innovative and iconic structures, including (among others) the Sydney Opera House, the Centre Pompidou in Paris, the Øresund Bridge between Denmark and Sweden, the Lloyd’s of London headquarters and 30 St Mary Axe (“The Gherkin”) in London, the National Stadium (“Bird’s Nest”) and National Aquatics Center (“Water Cube”) built for the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing, and the China Central Television (CCTV) headquarters, also in Beijing.</p>
<p>For the most part eschewing the role of project architect, Arup instead concentrates on all the other design and engineering consulting work needed to translate architects’ visions into reality. In particular this includes practices in theater consulting, acoustic consulting, structural engineering, and lighting design, with Arup having worked on several dozen projects worldwide involving concert halls, indoor and outdoor theaters, and similar structures.</p>
<p>Given Arup’s broad range of expertise and their reputation for working with leading architects, Arup was a natural choice for the Inner Arbor Trust to include on the design team for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods and for the Chrysalis in particular. Raj Patel of Arup’s New York office&ndash;Arup principal,<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> global lead for theater and acoustic consulting, and arts, culture, and entertainment business leader for the Americas&mdash;was introduced by the Trust at the “Designers of Delight” presentation in November 2013. Patel discussed several Arup theater projects, from the Snape Maltings Concert Hall (see the figure above) to the recent Jerome Robbins Theater in the Baryshnikov Arts Center in New York City.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-alpha-beta-seating.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-alpha-beta-seating-embed.jpg"
         alt="Examples of two possible audiences for a Chrysalis performance: 2,000 people seated on the lawn for a performance on the alpha stage (L), or 1,000 people seated on the lawn for a performance on the beta stage (R). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Images © 2014 Arup; included in the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Examples of two possible audiences for a Chrysalis performance: 2,000 people seated on the lawn for a performance on the alpha stage (L), or 1,000 people seated on the lawn for a performance on the beta stage (R). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Images © 2014 Arup; included in the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="alpha-and-beta">Alpha and beta</h2>
<p>The purposes that the Chrysalis is to fulfill influenced its overall design.  As noted previously, Michael McCall of the Inner Arbor Trust described the Chrysalis as a combined stage, pavilion, and sculpture. Setting aside the functions of pavilion and sculpture, the simple word “stage” contains a host of questions regarding what types of performances the Chrysalis might host, how the sights and sounds of those performances are to be conveyed to the audiences, how many and what kinds of people are part of the audiences, how those people experience the performances, and so on.</p>
<p>For an example of how the answers to these questions influence the form of a performance space, look no further than Merriweather Post Pavilion, neighbor to the Chrysalis. When it was originally constructed Merriweather Post Pavilion was conceived of as a summer home for the National Symphony and a venue for other “high culture” performances, including dance. Thus the audience area was relatively small and featured conventional seats, and the venue and stage were designed for acoustical performances. However, after the National Symphony went bankrupt Merriweather Post Pavilion eventually evolved into a venue for popular acts featuring amplified music, with the seating area expanded and additional audience seating space used on the lawn above the pavilion.</p>
<p>Some of the decisions about the Chrysalis were made early on, as part of the development of the Inner Arbor concept plan and prior to the design of the Chrysalis itself. In particular, the concept plan included provision for both indoor theaters and an outdoor stage, the so-called Treehouse amphitheater, in a proposed “performance park” area of Symphony Woods. The role of the indoor theaters was eventually taken over by the cultural arts center now being proposed for a site across the street from Merriweather Park to house Toby’s Dinner Theatre and other functions, leaving the outdoor amphitheater to be addressed by the revised Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<p>Since the amphitheater was to be located in a more forest-like section of Symphony Woods, and since an explicit goal of the Inner Arbor plan is to preserve as many trees as possible, the Inner Arbor Trust opted not to install fixed seats or benches in Symphony Woods itself. Instead audiences will sit on the lawn or (for larger events) stand.</p>
<p>Also, since the amphitheater was only a few hundred feet from South Entrance Road and the proposed route of a future larger street, the ambient noise level dictated the use of amplification for performances. This in turn opened up more possibilities for the amphitheater structure itself, which did not need to take the traditional form of an acoustic shell. The result was the unconventional form of the Chrysalis as we know it today.</p>
<p>The combination of lawn seating and sound amplification matched up well with the planned uses of the Chrysalis as a secondary stage for Merriweather Post Pavilion (for example during music festivals) or as a primary stage for events like Wine in the Woods. The hill facing the Chrysalis, which serendipitously has a gently sloping natural 5% grade, can easily accommodate audiences of up to 2,000 people if seated (see the figure above) and many more than that if standing.</p>
<p>At the same time there are other possible events that generally play to smaller audiences&mdash;local groups and solo performers, small plays, and the like&mdash;and will not need that much stage space. Rather than force these performances to use a large stage, the Chrysalis was designed to have a second or “beta” stage facing a different part of the hill, one that can accommodate audiences from 100 to 1,000 people if seated, and more if standing.  Unlike the main or “alpha” stage, the beta stage also has terraced steps forming a thrust stage to provide a more informal and intimate relationship between the performers and the audience.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-alpha-stage-setups.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-alpha-stage-setups-embed.png"
         alt="Examples of two possible setups of the Chrysalis alpha stage, for a pop group (L) and for a lecture to an on-stage audience (R). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Images © 2014 Arup; included in the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Examples of two possible setups of the Chrysalis alpha stage, for a pop group (L) and for a lecture to an on-stage audience (R). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Images © 2014 Arup; included in the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="configuring-the-stages">Configuring the stages</h2>
<p>However, even the addition of the beta stage did not address the full range of demands that are likely to be placed on the Chrysalis. Some performances and other events will be so small scale that they may need to accommodate an audience of only a few dozen to a couple of hundred people. For many such events, such as book readings or lectures, it may also be preferable to provide formal seating arrangements for the audience, as opposed to having them sit or stand on the lawn.</p>
<p>To address these requirements the Chrysalis is designed so that the stage can also be used as a seating area for the audience in addition to a performance space, with the whole event then taking place under the canopy of the Chrysalis. This also provides the audience at least partial protection from any inclement weather.</p>
<p>The resulting Chrysalis stage as designed and constructed is quite large: about 4,500 square feet for the main stage floor, with a “performance zone” for the alpha stage about 50 feet wide and 40 feet deep&mdash;roughly comparable to the stage at Carnegie Hall and to the old Merriweather Post Pavilion stage prior to the construction of the new stagehouse. There are also additional areas “in the wings” at stage left and stage right of the alpha stage, as well as an area of over 500 square feet for the terraced levels of the beta stage that project outside the Chrysalis proper.</p>
<p>The resulting venue can accommodate a wide variety of events and associated stage configurations:</p>
<ul>
<li>Popular music acts on the alpha stage, including rock or hip hop performance (see the figure above) or DJs playing electronic dance music (EDM), with the audience seated or standing on the lawn.</li>
<li>Theater, dance, orchestral, and chorus performances on the alpha stage, with the stage being large enough to support a symphony orchestra with close to 100 performers and a backing chorus of comparable size.</li>
<li>Smaller performances with the audience seated on the alpha stage itself, with 100-150 people seated in one or two banks of seats and the performers either at center stage or at stage right (near the beta stage).</li>
<li>Larger events with 300-400 or more people seated on the stage, for example for a lecture or book reading (see the figure above).</li>
<li>Performances on the beta stage with audiences seated or standing on the lawn.</li>
</ul>
<p>In practice each event will be slightly different, with the size and shape of the Chrysalis stage providing the flexibility for creative presenters and event organizers to select the configuration that best helps them achieve their particular artistic and business goals.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-theater-infrastructure-composite.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-theater-infrastructure-composite-embed.png"
         alt="Chrysalis theater features, clockwise from upper right: technical specifications, including load capacities for lighting and speakers; the grid of “strong points” for hanging lights and speakers for performances on the alpha and beta stages; location and capacities of electrical switches; and storage space under the alpha stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Chrysalis theater features, clockwise from upper right: technical specifications, including load capacities for lighting and speakers; the grid of “strong points” for hanging lights and speakers for performances on the alpha and beta stages; location and capacities of electrical switches; and storage space under the alpha stage. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="expected-technology-unexpected-form">Expected technology, unexpected form</h2>
<p>Of the possible configurations and their requirements, the most demanding are those needed to accommodate popular music acts like those that form the majority of the performances at Merriweather Post Pavilion and its associated music festivals.</p>
<p>One aspect of the public image of major rock stars is that they make whimsical and often nonsensical demands of the venues in which they perform. Of these the most famous is the “no brown M&amp;Ms” rule associated with the rock band Van Halen: that they be served a bowl of M&amp;M candies in their backstage dressing rooms, with all brown M&amp;Ms removed.</p>
<p>On the surface this portrays the members of Van Halen as divas of the highest order, but in reality the purpose of this contract clause was much more prosaic: Van Halen’s stage show used a lot more equipment than many of the venues they played at were used to, and they wanted to ensure that the venue staff were fully aware of Van Halen’s technical needs and prepared to meet them.  The “no brown M&amp;Ms” provision thus served as a test of whether the venue staff had actually read Van Halen’s contract in full, including the associated “hospitality rider” and “technical rider.”  As Van Halen’s leader singer David Lee Roth put it, “If I saw a brown M&amp;M in that bowl … [we’d] line-check the entire production.”</p>
<p>Thus when designing the stage the Chrysalis team looked at technical riders for acts that might play at Merriweather Post Pavilion and had particularly stringent requirements.  One result was the choice of stage size mentioned earlier.  Another was the height of the Chrysalis, designed to provide a 60 feet wide and 36 feet tall proscenium opening at the front of the alpha stage, and a performance “box” 30 feet in height (and 50 feet wide by 40 feet deep) even before allowing for rigging above the stage.</p>
<p>Yet another was the electrical facilities for the two stages.  (The term “electrical outlets” doesn’t do justice to the size and complexity of the setup.)  The Chrysalis features four “company switches” at stage level each capable of providing 400 amps, or 1,600 amps in total, with two other switches each providing 200 amps on isolated circuits for audio equipment, and yet another switch to drive motorized chains for the stage rigging.  The total capacity of over 2,000 amps is roughly equivalent to that provided for the new stage at Merriweather Post Pavilion, designed to serve the needs of the most power-hungry acts. (In comparison, a typical medium-size home has 100 amps of electrical service.)</p>
<p>The Chrysalis and its stage are designed to address many other issues, including providing a sturdy stage floor that can also be easily repaired as needed, drainage for the stage, fire suppression, ADA access to the stage for people using wheelchairs or otherwise having limited mobility, sturdy but attractive railings to prevent falls, a loading dock and lift to bring equipment from the dock to stage level, storage under the stage for unused equipment, and so on.</p>
<p>The most important requirement, and a major influence on the final form of the Chrysalis, is to support elaborate rigs for lighting, speakers, suspended scenery, and related elements.  The Chrysalis structure supports several dozen “strong points” and multiple “line sets” for hanging production elements.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  Each strong point on the alpha stage is rated to support up to 2,200 pounds of vertically suspended weight, almost as much as a typical subcompact car. (Beta stage strong points are rated to support 1,000 pounds.)  The entire set of strong points and line sets, including strong points at the front of the alpha stage for speakers, can support up to 46,000 pounds, equivalent to ten SUVs.</p>
<p>The end result is a professional theater and stage that provides “expected technology in an unexpected form,” as Ed Arenius, Associate Principal of Arup, put it: all the features needed for modern musical acts and other performances in a flexible and beautiful structure that is a far cry from the typical outdoor amphitheater.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>For more on Arup and its work in theater design and consulting, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://www.arup.com/about_us">About Us</a>” page from the Arup web site.</li>
<li>Ove Arup’s “<a href="http://www.arup.com/publications/the_key_speech">Key Speech</a>” outlining Arup’s philosophy, mission, and organization practices.</li>
<li>Arup’s <a href="http://www.arup.com/services/acoustic_consulting">theater consulting</a> and <a href="http://www.arup.com/services/acoustic_consulting">acoustic consulting</a> practices.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/191568080">Unabashed Designers of Delight</a>” [121-minute video] (November 18, 2013). A presentation introducing the design team for the Inner Arbor plan. It includes a presentation by Raj Patel beginning at 1:39:30 that discusses a number of Arup theatrical projects.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on technical requirements for acts playing concert venues, and theatrical requirements in general, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://www.snopes.com/music/artists/vanhalen.asp">Brown Out</a>.”  Snopes.com investigates Van Halen’s “no brown M&amp;Ms” demand.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.merriweathermusic.com/production/">Merriweather Post Pavilion Production Information</a>.”  Includes detailed technical specifications of the stage and other features for acts playing at Merriweather Post Pavilion.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://rahulsamuel.wordpress.com/2015/04/28/how-to-make-the-perfect-tech-rider-for-your-band/">How to Make the Perfect Tech Rider for Your Band</a>.”  A good example of what goes into a typical technical rider, although it doesn’t make much mention of lighting requirements.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fly_system">Fly system</a>.”  A Wikipedia article that provides a good overview of the components and complexity of the equipment needed for a modern stage production.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.stagecraftindustries.com/siteglossary.php">Stagecraft Industries Site Glossary</a>.”  A glossary of technical terms used in the context of theaters and theatrical productions.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Chrysalis amphitheater and its origins in the Inner Arbor concept plan, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">Michael McCall’s presentation of the Inner Arbor concept plan to Leadership Howard County</a> [33-minute video] (September 20, 2013).</li>
<li>The Chrysalis portion of the <a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">Inner Arbor pre-submission community presentation</a> (December 2, 2013).</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Michael McCall’s presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> [20-minute video] (February 26, 2014).</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Arup began as a traditional partnership but then later transitioned to being owned by a trust on behalf of its employees.  A principal at Arup is roughly equivalent to a partner at other firms.  Arup has a global board of directors (appointed by the trustees) and then individual boards for each of its major regions.  Raj Patel is a board member for the Americas region.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>A strong point is an individual point to which a load can be attached.  A line set consists of multiple components, including a horizontal pipe (“batten”) and a set of ropes and pulleys used to raise and lower it.  A strong point is typically not used in isolation; instead a group of strong points is used to support a single line set, which then is used to support lights, a curtain, piece of scenery, or other element used in a production.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Design</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2017/01/07/creating-the-chrysalis-design/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 07 Jan 2017 11:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2017/01/07/creating-the-chrysalis-design/</guid>
      <description>I explore the design of the Chrysalis and the work of Marc Fornes, its designer.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSRAKL9laH8">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-mesh-inflation-embed.png"
         alt="Snapshot of the “mesh inflation” process for the Chrysalis amphitheater shell. (Click to see the original video.)  The original surface prior to inflation is outlined in yellow, with the lines of the mesh running “lengthwise” and “crosswise” shown in purple and blue respectively. Image © 2014 Marc Fornes; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Snapshot of the “mesh inflation” process for the Chrysalis amphitheater shell. (Click to see the original video.)  The original surface prior to inflation is outlined in yellow, with the lines of the mesh running “lengthwise” and “crosswise” shown in purple and blue respectively. Image © 2014 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I explore the design of the Chrysalis amphitheater, the work of its designer Marc Fornes of THEVERYMANY, and the concepts underlying the design.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The previous articles in this series focused on the history of Symphony Woods, the site of the Chrysalis amphitheater, and the overall design of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. With this article I finally turn to the Chrysalis amphitheater itself, the structure after which this series is named. In particular I discuss the concepts and techniques underlying the innovative way in which the form of the Chrysalis was designed, and explore the work of its designer, Marc Fornes of THEVERYMANY, in the years leading up to the creation of the Chrysalis. (Later articles will cover other aspects of the Chrysalis design and other members of the design team, including the work of Arup Group Limited and A. Zahner Company.)</p>
<p>This post is more technical than others in this series, because it’s difficult to get a sense for the significance of what Marc Fornes and his associates have achieved without delving a bit into the mathematics and programming techniques that make those achievements possible. I encourage you to check out the videos and interactive demos to which I link, and to lightly skim over sections if the going gets rough.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/apache-wickiup-edward-curtis-1903.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/apache-wickiup-edward-curtis-1903-embed.jpg"
         alt="Apache wickiup in the Southwest US, photographed by Edward Curtis in 1903. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Image from the Wikipedia article “Wigwam”; in the public domain."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Apache wickiup in the Southwest US, photographed by Edward Curtis in 1903. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image from the Wikipedia article “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wigwam">Wigwam</a>”; in the public domain.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="nonlinear-beginnings">Nonlinear beginnings</h2>
<p>Marc Fornes is an architect using advanced computer techniques to create structures based on complex nonlinear forms. In a way his work, and that of others like him, represents a coming-together of two ancient ways of building.</p>
<p>The first, dating back to our hunter-gatherer ancestors and continued with nomadic and small-scale agricultural societies, is the long tradition of “folk architecture” built along natural and organic lines, including most notably tents and tent-like structures in their various forms: wigwams, wikiups, tipis, yurts, and so on. These structures were (and are) typically small scale (built as family residences), based on natural forms and materials (wood bent to shape, cloth under tension), constructed by small teams working quickly, and often explicitly intended as temporary (since a group might spend only a relatively short time in one place).</p>
<p>As such these structures were not “architected” in the sense of being based on detailed specifications created by an architect for use by those who build the structures&mdash;there was no real need to do so, since the “architect” and “builder” were one and the same (and often were the user of the structure as well). In any case the nonlinear form of the structures made it difficult to describe them using conventional architectural plans as we think of them today. Instead such structures were constructed using methods worked out by trial and error over many years and taught by one generation of builders to the next.</p>
<p>We can think of these methods, each producing a specific type of structure, as being algorithms&mdash;not algorithms that were written down but algorithms that were transmitted verbally and then executed by the builders to create each structure. The algorithms were not arbitrary, but were constrained by the type of material used and the general type of structure to be produced. The final form of the structure was then determined by the algorithm, the materials, and the interplay of forces of compression and tension acting on those materials as they happened to be arranged.</p>
<p>Leveraging the natural forms and properties of the underlying materials also produced structures that were optimized in terms of their use of materials, neither using too much material (and thus wasteful of effort) or too little material (and thus failing to fulfill their intended functions as shelter, etc.). The structures’ materials naturally assumed an organic form determined by the forces acting on them, and if additional forces (e.g., due to wind and weather) caused a structure to fail in certain places then builders learned how and where to use additional materials to reinforce the structure.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/ancient-ziggurat-at-ali-air-base-iraq-2005.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ancient-ziggurat-at-ali-air-base-iraq-2005.jpg"
         alt="Reconstructed facade of the Neo-Sumerian Great Ziggurat of Ur, near Nasiriyah, Iraq. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Image from the Wikipedia article “Ziggurat”; in the public domain."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Reconstructed facade of the Neo-Sumerian Great Ziggurat of Ur, near Nasiriyah, Iraq. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image from the Wikipedia article “<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ziggurat">Ziggurat</a>”; in the public domain.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="building-blocks-and-linear-thinking">Building blocks and linear thinking</h2>
<p>Although hunter-gatherers, nomads, and small-scale farmers can be thought of as being informal architects, the way of building we most think of as “architectural” in character dates back several thousand years to the beginnings of large-scale hierarchical societies, when bricks and cut stone blocks began to be used in the construction of structures both small and large.</p>
<p>In particular bricks and blocks were ideal for constructing large-scale structures, since builders could leverage techniques of mass production: have a large work force create bricks or cut blocks in parallel, and then have a second work force assemble the bricks or blocks into finished structures.</p>
<p>However this meant that “master builders” needed some method by which workers could be instructed to lay the bricks or blocks in accordance with the builders’ mind’s-eye vision for the structure. This was especially important for large structures that might take multiple decades to build, long enough that the original master builders might be gone from the scene by the time the structures were completed.</p>
<p>In response to this need builders created the concepts students learn today in geometry class&mdash;straight lines, right angles, rectangles and triangles, and so on&mdash;to represent various architectural forms, along with simple but powerful tools to help workers embody those forms in physical structures&mdash;for example, plumb bobs to create vertical lines, or wooden triangles with sides in the proportion of 3 to 4 to 5 to create right angles.</p>
<p>These basic techniques to create various linear forms, along with additional techniques to allow construction of circular segments for arches and domes, served builders well for many centuries and became deeply embedded in the architectural and contruction practices of agricultural and (later) industrial societies. (The tale of the three little pigs and their respective houses captures this dynamic, promoting the superiority of linear forms constructed using solid materials over folk architecture using straw or sticks.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/ducks-and-spline.gif">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ducks-and-spline-embed.png"
         alt="Traditional wooden spline held in place by lead ducks. Image from “Interpolação Spline” by Tereza Godim; original source unknown."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Traditional wooden spline held in place by lead ducks. Image from “<a href="http://www2.ic.uff.br/~aconci/splineatual.html">Interpolação Spline</a>” by Tereza Godim; original source unknown.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="ducks-splines-and-lofts">Ducks, splines, and lofts</h2>
<p>The use of arbitrary nonlinear forms in architecture was thus, for the most part, abandoned as societies became more complex and constructed larger and more elaborate structures. One major exception was in shipbuilding. Kingdoms, empires, and nation states creating large navies needed to construct large numbers of relatively identical ships, each of which required a relatively large construction force.</p>
<p>However the hulls of ships must be composed of streamlined curved forms that cannot be described in terms of linear or even circular segments, so naval architects needed to find other ways to define hull shapes in ways that could be reliably translated by ship builders to create the actual vessels.</p>
<p>One time-honored way in which this is done is to use flexible wooden strips (“splines”) in combination with multiple lead weights (“ducks”). The ducks are attached to a spline and force it to flex into a particular shape; the ducks are then moved around until an appropriate smooth curve is produced. The resulting curves are then followed in producing plans for the ship’s hull. Since the plans are full size (i.e., using a 1-1 scale) they need to be constructed in a large open space or loft, hence the name “lofting” for the overall process.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/citroen-ds-1966.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/citroen-ds-1966-embed.jpg"
         alt="Citroën DS on the streets of Nancy, France. (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Image © 2013 Alexandre Prévot; used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Citroën DS on the streets of Nancy, France. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/alexprevot/">Alexandre Prévot</a>; used under the terms of the <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/">Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="mathematics-to-the-rescue">Mathematics to the rescue</h2>
<p>Manual lofting continued to be used for ships well into the 20th century, and was later adapted for use in designing and constructing other streamlined forms, including airplanes and automobiles. However the process was very labor intensive and difficult to get right, so as electronic computers came into more widespread use after World War II automakers and aircraft manufacturers sought to enlist them in the design process, especially in conjunction with computer-driven machine tools that could take numeric instructions and create finished parts or molds.</p>
<p>At the same time traditional architecture was beginning to liberate itself from the constraints of linear forms, as the use of steel, reinforced concrete, and other new materials made it possible, at least in theory, to produce new types of structures that went beyond rectilinear and circular forms. But, as in designing ships, airplanes, and automobiles, it was easier to imagine new nonlinear forms than to describe them in detail sufficient to guide their construction&mdash;not to mention the problem of analyzing such structures to determine whether they would be structurally sound.</p>
<p>Using computers to create forms with complex curves and surfaces required finding compact mathematical ways to represent complex curves, programming computers to accurately and efficiently draw such curves, and (last but not least) making these techniques usable by people who didn’t have specialist mathematical or programming knowledge.</p>
<p>This was the challenge faced by Paul de Faget de Casteljau in 1959 when, fresh from earning a PhD in mathematics, he joined the French automaker Citroën. The recently-introduced Citroën DS model was acclaimed for the elegance of its curved unibody design, a form that was produced in a traditional way using clay and wood models. The models’ dimensions were then transferred to paper blueprints used in producing the body panels and related parts. All of these steps required painstaking manual work.</p>
<p>De Casteljau’s assigned task was to find a simpler way to represent the curves of an automobile’s body and parts, one that would be easier to use with the computer-controlled machine tools then coming into use at Citroën and elsewhere&mdash;a task made particularly urgent because while de Casteljau was working on the problem the wood modelers at Citroën went out on strike.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/de-casteljau-algorithm-embed.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/de-casteljau-algorithm-embed.jpg"
         alt="An example of a cubic Bézier curve calculated using de Casteljau’s algorithm, with control points A, L, I, and P as shown. A point D on the curve can be produced as follows: given a value between 0 and 1, find the points B, M, and J that are located at that fraction of the total length on the line segments AL, LI, and IP respectively. Then find the points C and N that are located at that fraction of the length on the line segments BM and MJ respectively. Finally, find the point D located at that fraction of the length on the line segment CN. Image © 1963 Automobiles Citroën, from the technical report “Courbes et surfaces à pôles” by Paul de Casteljau (as excerpted in “A History of Curves and Surfaces in CAGD),” by Gerald Farin)."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>An example of a cubic Bézier curve calculated using de Casteljau’s algorithm, with control points A, L, I, and P as shown. A point D on the curve can be produced as follows: given a value between 0 and 1, find the points B, M, and J that are located at that fraction of the total length on the line segments AL, LI, and IP respectively. Then find the points C and N that are located at that fraction of the length on the line segments BM and MJ respectively. Finally, find the point D located at that fraction of the length on the line segment CN. Image © 1963 Automobiles Citroën, from the technical report “Courbes et surfaces à pôles” by Paul de Casteljau (as excerpted in “<a href="http://www.farinhansford.com/gerald/papers/history.pdf">A History of Curves and Surfaces in CAGD</a>),” by Gerald Farin).</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="from-points-to-curves">From points to curves</h2>
<p>De Casteljau found a way to represent curves using a fixed set of mathematical expressions (known as <em>Bernstein polynomials</em><sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>) in combination with a set of variable <em>control points</em> (see the figure above), each having horizontal (<em>x</em>) and vertical (<em>y</em>) values jointly specifying its position.</p>
<p>For example, if four control points are to be used then we start with the standard set of four Bernstein polynomials. The four control points can then be placed anywhere on the flat surface on which the curve is to be drawn (i.e., they can have arbitrary <em>x</em> and <em>y</em> values); each control point is associated in turn with one of the four Bernstein polynomials being used.</p>
<p>The problem of drawing a curve is then reduced to the following procedure, which can be thought of as occurring over an interval of time running from zero to one (e.g., from zero to one minute):</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>Start at the initial value of time (<em>t</em> = 0), evaluate the given mathematical expressions (the Bernstein polynomials) for that time value, and use the resulting values in conjunction with the control points’ <em>x</em> and <em>y</em> values to derive the position for the first point on the curve.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Advance the time by a small increment, recompute the Bernstein polynomials for that new time value <em>t</em>, and again use the resulting values in conjunction with the control points to derive the position for the next point on the curve.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Repeat step 2 until you arrive at the final value of time (<em>t</em> = 1), at which point the final point on the curve is derived and the curve is complete.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>The number of control points used determines the type of mathematical expressions used and the type of curves that can be drawn: using two points produces a line segment, using three points produces a segment of a parabola (the type of curve produced by a ball thrown into the air), using four points produces a cubic curve (so-called because the underlying parameter is multiplied by itself and then multiplied by itself again, as is done in computing the volume of a cube), and so on.</p>
<p>Because of the way the Bernstein polynomials are defined and associated with the control points, the curve produced is guaranteed to start at the first control point, to end at the last control point, and to pass (relatively) close to each intermediate control point. Changing the shape of the curve, or its starting and ending points, can be done by moving the positions of the control points (analogous to moving the ducks attached to a traditional spline). More complicated curves can be created by using more control points (analogous to adding more ducks) and correspondingly more complicated mathematical expressions (Bernstein polynomials of higher degree).</p>
<p>Note that this is not the only way to draw such curves. In particular, de Casteljau invented an elegant way to find points on a given curve using a geometric process involving lines between the control points. (See the figure above for a more in-depth explanation.)  What is now known as the <em>de Casteljau algorithm</em> is mathematically equivalent to computing curve points using the Bernstein polynomials.</p>
<p>De Casteljau’s work saw immediate application at Citroën in the early 1960s, and was considered so important that Citroën treated its mathematical foundations as a trade secret for many years. However in the meantime engineers at rival French automaker Renault heard rumors about what was happening at Citroën and set out to implement a similar system.</p>
<p>Renault engineer Pierre Bézier independently discovered a representation for complex curves later shown to be mathematically equivalent to that of de Casteljau. Bézier’s associate Daniel Vernet independently invented de Casteljau’s geometric algorithm. Bézier, Vernet, and others at Renault then used these techniques to develop UNISURF, one of the first widely-used computer programs for what came to be known as computer aided design or CAD.</p>
<p>Unlike Citroën, Renault took a more relaxed attitude towards publicizing the technical achievements of its employees, and allowed Bézier and Vernet to publish various papers about their work in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Bézier also promoted Renault’s accomplishments in personal visits to other CAD researchers in academia and industry. As a result curves created using Bernstein polynomials are now universally known as <em>Bézier curves</em>.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/nurbs-heart.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/nurbs-heart-embed.png"
         alt="An example of a NURBS curve of order 3 (degree 2), with seven control points (in green, with values at the upper left) and ten knot values (at the lower left). (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Point3 and Point5 have twice the weight of the other points (see the w values in the list of control points), so that the curve passes more closely to them. Also, the value 0.5 is repeated twice in the list of knots, so that the curve has a kink at Point4. The curve is thus a true example of a non-uniform rational b-spline: non-uniform because the knots are not all evenly spaced, and rational because the control points’ weights are not all one. Screenshot taken from the NURBS-Calculator interactive demo, © 2016 pawangami@gmail.com."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>An example of a NURBS curve of order 3 (degree 2), with seven control points (in green, with values at the upper left) and ten knot values (at the lower left). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Point3 and Point5 have twice the weight of the other points (see the <em>w</em> values in the list of control points), so that the curve passes more closely to them. Also, the value 0.5 is repeated twice in the list of knots, so that the curve has a kink at Point4. The curve is thus a true example of a non-uniform rational b-spline: non-uniform because the knots are not all evenly spaced, and rational because the control points’ weights are not all one. Screenshot taken from the <a href="http://nurbscalculator.in/">NURBS-Calculator</a> interactive demo, © 2016 <a href="mailto:pawangami@gmail.com">pawangami@gmail.com</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="beyond-bézier">Beyond Bézier</h2>
<p>The invention of Bézier curves and their application in engineering marked the beginning of the discipline of CAD (also known as computer aided geometric design or CAGD), and the 1960s and 1970s saw a steady flow of improvements and refinements of the work done at Citroën, Renault, and elsewhere.</p>
<p>Designing real-world artifacts required ways to generate surfaces (not just curves), as well as ways to generate more complicated curves than could be represented using simple Beziér curves. Let us first focus on the issue of generating more complex curves, and look at two ways to create such curves using Bézier curves.</p>
<p>The first approach is simply to use more control points (corresponding to higher-degree Bernstein polynomials). The problem with this approach is that in a Bézier curve each of the control points has at least some influence over essentially all of the curve. This makes it difficult to tweak a Bézier curve to match a pre-defined idea of what the curve should look like: if you move one of the control points in an effort to make a change in one portion of the curve, that movement will end up affecting other portions of the curve that you don’t want to change.</p>
<p>A second way to create a more complex curve is to build it out of multiple Bézier curves joined end to end. The problem with this approach is that it is difficult to get the resulting composite curve to smoothly transition from one of the underlying Bézier curves to the next, as is required in applications like auto body design.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>Greater smoothness can be obtained by constraining the control points of one of the underlying Bézier curves relative to the control points of the previous or next curve, but for reasons mentioned above this can lead to difficulties when trying to tweak the shape of the overall curve in certain places.</p>
<p>The solution to this problem was to replace Bernstein polynomials with more general functions known as <em>basis splines</em>.  In mathematics “splines” are functions pieced together out of multiple polynomial expressions, with each expression being non-zero only on a particular interval. They are named by analogy to traditional wooden splines, since the expressions and their associated intervals are chosen such that the curve produced by the function flows smoothly from one interval to the next.</p>
<p>“Basis splines” or <em>B-splines</em> form a special set of spline functions
that can be combined to represent any spline function created using polynomial expressions of the same level of complexity, or <em>order</em>.<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup></p>
<p>A fixed set of B-spline functions is then combined with a set of variable control points to draw a curve, similar to what was described above for Bernstein polynomials and Bézier curves. The underlying parameter used in the B-spline functions goes from some minimum value to some maximum value. Unlike Bézier curves the minimum value may be different than zero, and the maximum value different than one.</p>
<p>A set of numbers known as <em>knots</em> then defines a set of intervals for the parameter between its minimum and maximum values. If the knots are chosen appropriately then a particular B-spline function will have non-zero values only on a few adjacent intervals, and will be zero on all other intervals.</p>
<p>When the B-spline function associated with a given control point has non-zero values only on certain intervals of the underlying parameter, moving that control point affects only the parts of the curve drawn over those intervals. This addresses the first deficiency of Bézier curves discussed above.</p>
<p>The second concern (smoothness of the curve between the intervals) is addressed by the mathematical definition of the B-spline functions: their shape is such that their influence (and thus the influence of their associated control points) tails off smoothly at the beginning and/or end of the intervals for which they are non-zero.</p>
<p>By varying the knot values the curve can be constrained and shaped in various ways. For example, setting multiple knot values to be the same at the beginning of the knot series can be used to constrain the curve to start at the first control point, while setting multiple knot values to be the same at the end of the knot series can be used to constrain the curve to end at the last control point. The curve also varies depending on whether the knot values are evenly spaced (<em>uniform</em>) or otherwise (<em>non-uniform</em>). For example, setting multiple knot values equal to each other in the middle of the knot series can be used to produce kinks in the resulting curve.</p>
<p>Finally, the control points themselves can be given differing weights when combined with their B-spline functions. A control point with a higher weight will have a greater influence on the curve, so that the curve will pass closer to the control point in question. Another control point may have a lower weight and thus only a fraction of the influence of other control points, so that the curve passes relatively further away from the point. Another word for fraction is ratio, and thus B-splines with differing control point weights are known as <em>rational</em> B-splines.</p>
<p>In the most general case the knot values are non-uniform, and the control points have different weights. The resulting curve is referred to as a non-uniform rational B-spline curve, or a <em>NURBS</em> curve for short.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/nurbs-surface-diagram.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/nurbs-surface-diagram-embed.png"
         alt="A NURBS surface showing the grid of control points (L) and how the underlying parameters u and v are varied from their minimum to their maximum values in computing points on the surface (R). (Click for a higher-resolution version.) Image © 2017 Autodesk, from The Dynamo Primer; used under the terms of the Apache open source license."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A NURBS surface showing the grid of control points (L) and how the underlying parameters <em>u</em> and <em>v</em> are varied from their minimum to their maximum values in computing points on the surface (R). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2017 Autodesk, from <em><a href="http://dynamoprimer.com/en/">The Dynamo Primer</a></em>; used under the terms of the <a href="http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0">Apache open source license</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="from-curves-to-surfaces">From curves to surfaces</h2>
<p>The mathematical formalisms underlying practical applications of NURBS curves were worked out in the 1960s and 1970s. Among other things, it was discovered that Bézier curves are just a special case of NURBS curves. It also turned out that NURBS curves could be used to represent <em>conic sections</em>, that is, curves like circles and ellipses formed by slicing a plane through a cone. NURBS curves thus became a universal standard for representing 2-dimensional curves of almost any type.</p>
<p>What about 3-dimensional curves and surfaces? Extending NURBS curves into three dimensions is very simple: just use control points with three coordinates instead of two (in mathematical terms, adding a <em>z</em> value to the previous <em>x</em> and <em>y</em> values). Creating 3D surfaces from NURBS curves is somewhat more complicated.</p>
<p>One way to do it is to use a grid of (3-dimensional) control points (and associated weights), two different parameters (instead of the one parameter used for a NURBS curve), two sets of B-spline functions (which can be of different orders), and two sets of knots.</p>
<p>One set of B-spline functions and knots is used with the first parameter (<em>u</em>) and the <em>x-y-z</em> coordinates of the control points running in one direction on the grid, with the second set of B-spline functions and knots then used with the second parameter (<em>v</em>) and the coordinates of the control points running in the other direction on the grid. A point on the surface is then computed for a given pair of parameter values <em>u</em> and <em>v</em>, using an expression that involves both sets of B-spline functions and both sets of knots along with the control point coordinates.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/nurbs-surface-example.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/nurbs-surface-example-embed.png"
         alt="An example of using the Rhino modeling software to create a NURBS surface from four edges, each of which is a NURBS curve of order 4 with seven control points (shown) and nine knots. (Strictly speaking there should be eleven knots, but Rhino uses an optimization technique that eliminates two superfluous knots.) (Click for a higher-resolution version.) The geometry was created by less than 50 lines of code in the Python programming language. Rhino 5 for Mac software © 2016 Robert McNeel &amp; Associates. Python script © 2016 Frank Hecker; published under the terms of the MIT open source license."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>An example of using the Rhino modeling software to create a NURBS surface from four edges, each of which is a NURBS curve of order 4 with seven control points (shown) and nine knots. (Strictly speaking there should be eleven knots, but Rhino uses an optimization technique that eliminates two <a href="http://developer.rhino3d.com/guides/opennurbs/superfluous-knots/">superfluous knots</a>.) (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The geometry was created by <a href="/assets/texts/nurbs-surface-example.txt">less than 50 lines of code</a> in the Python programming language. Rhino 5 for Mac software © 2016 <a href="http://www.mcneel.com">Robert McNeel &amp; Associates</a>. Python script © 2016 Frank Hecker; published under the terms of the <a href="https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT">MIT open source license</a>.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="computer-aided-design">Computer aided design</h2>
<p>In practice designers creating NURBS curves and surfaces are not concerned with the detailed mathematical computations underlying these objects. Instead they create curves and surfaces using special CAD software products that abstract away as much of the underlying mathematical complexity as possible, and provide relatively intuitive interfaces to define the curves and surfaces.</p>
<p>For example, using CAD software a designer can create a NURBS curve by explicitly placing control points and defining knot values and weights, or they can draw a curve freehand and then have the software determine the control points, knots, and weights needed to approximate the freehand curve. In either case a designer can further tweak a curve as needed, for example by dragging control points to new positions, deleting existing control points or adding new ones, changing knots and weights, and so on.</p>
<p>Once NURBS curves are defined they can then be used to create NURBS surfaces. For example, if four NURBS curves are connected together to form a four-sided shape, the software can use the four edges to interpolate a four-sided NURBS surface between. (See the figure above.)  Multiple such surfaces can then be patched together to form a larger surface.</p>
<p>The earliest major CAD programs were developed internally at major automotive and aerospace companies. They include Renault’s UNISURF as well as similar software created at General Motors and elsewhere. It was no coincidence that these companies also employed many of the researchers working on NURBS curves and surfaces and related techniques, and also collaborated with academic researchers in the same area.</p>
<p>One such program worth noting is CATIA, originally developed in the 1970s by the French aircraft manufacturer Avions Marcel Dassault. Instead of keeping CATIA in-house, Dassault turned it into a commercial product and sold it to other aerospace companies (including Boeing), automotive companies, and others.</p>
<p>In the 1990s the architect Frank Gehry (co-designer of Merriweather Post Pavilion) and his firm adopted CATIA for use in designing his breakthrough commission, the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao, Spain (completed in 1997), and subsequent high-profile projects. Among these were the Experience Music Project in Seattle (completed in 2000) and the Walt Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles (completed in 2003).</p>
<p>(The EMP in particular was one of the first major collaborations between Gehry and A. Zahner Company, another member of the Chrysalis design team, which fabricated the building’s skin. Zahner’s work on the Chrysalis will be discussed in a future article in this series.)</p>
<p>Gehry’s success produced a lot of excitement about the possibility of using advanced nonlinear forms in architecture. However there were at least two factors that limited the adoption of CATIA and similar software by architects and made the impact of CAD software on architectural practice less revolutionary than it might otherwise have been.</p>
<p>First, CATIA and similar products and the computers needed to run them were very expensive: just the hardware alone for the Guggenheim Bilbao project was over half a million dollars at 1990s prices. (Gehry could afford it only because IBM loaned him the necessary graphics workstations.)  Even today a full installation of CATIA or similar high-end CAD software can cost several thousand dollars per “seat,” that is, for each person using the product. Thus only the largest architectural firms could afford to employ such advanced technology.</p>
<p>Second, CAD software was primarily used as an adjunct to traditional architectural drafting and modeling techniques. Gehry himself boasted of his inability to use a computer. Instead he created designs like the Guggenheim Bilbao by first modeling them in paper or cardboard. He then handed them off to more junior architects to create more refined models to be digitized and imported into CATIA for final refinement and generation of the actual instructions for builders and fabricators. (These are not necessarily paper blueprints. Instead the models are typically translated into instructions for computer-controlled tools.)</p>
<p>Thus although Guggenheim Bilbao and similar projects offered a glimpse of a new way of doing architecture, fully realizing that new way would await a new generation of powerful but low-cost hardware and software, and a new generation of architects, “digital natives” prepared to fully exploit the possibilities inherent in these new technologies.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/070919_Search.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/070919_Search-embed.png"
         alt="An simple form-finding example by Marc Fornes using the Rhino 3D modeling program and the RhinoScript programming language. The script (the core code of which is shown) generates over a hundred random points within a tall rectangular box. For each new point the script finds the nearest neighboring point and draws a cone with its base at the new point and its tip at the neighboring point, and then a sphere centered at the new point. Image and script © 2007 Marc Fornes; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>An simple form-finding example by Marc Fornes using the Rhino 3D modeling program and the RhinoScript programming language. The script (the core code of which is shown) generates over a hundred random points within a tall rectangular box. For each new point the script finds the nearest neighboring point and draws a cone with its base at the new point and its tip at the neighboring point, and then a sphere centered at the new point. <a href="https://ncertainties.wordpress.com/explicit-protocols/070919_search/">Image and script</a> © 2007 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="form-finding">Form finding</h2>
<p>The road that led to Marc Fornes’s work on the Chrysalis began in the early years of the 21st century, as the trends bringing faster, cheaper, and easier-to-use software and hardware gathered momentum. Fornes studied as an architect in France and then at the Architectural Association Design Research Lab in London, graduating in January 2004 with a Masters in Architecture and Urbanism.</p>
<p>After graduating from the DRL Fornes joined Zaha Hadid Architects in London, where he worked for over two years on a project to design a “médiathèque” (media library) for the French city of Pau, including an innovative self-supported roof constructed from a carbon fiber composite material. Although the Pau médiathèque project was ultimately cancelled for political reasons, much to the frustration of Fornes and his colleagues, it sparked his interest in complex curved surfaces and led him to begin experimenting with computational methods to design such surfaces.</p>
<p>That experimentation continued as Fornes moved to New York in the fall of 2006. Working under the project name “THEVERYMANY,” Fornes took advantage of multiple technological advances, of which the most important was the creation of the PC-based 3D modeling software Rhinoceros, popularly known as Rhino or Rhino 3D.</p>
<p>Rhino was created by Robert McNeel &amp; Associates (“McNeel”), a Seattle-based company that was founded in 1980 as an accounting firm and spent most of the 1980s and 1990s as a reseller of the CAD product AutoCAD and a marketer of AutoCAD add-on software. Eventually McNeel developed and sold Rhino as its own Windows-based 3D modeling product, with version 1.0 released in 1998.</p>
<p>McNeel followed several business practices unusual for traditional vendors of proprietary CAD software, practices more akin to those of then-new Internet companies like Netscape or developers of free and open source software: McNeel not only priced Rhino at a level affordable to small companies, including “boutique” architectural firms and individual architects, it allowed liberal downloads of evaluation copies at no charge. McNeel also followed the open source dictum “release early, release often” and distributed “beta” copies of new versions in development almost as soon as the previous versions were released, soliciting ideas for new features from its customers.</p>
<p>As a result Rhino quickly acquired an installed base of over a hundred thousand users, and (among other things) became the tool of choice for an emerging community of experimental architects and designers, including Marc Fornes. That community in particular explored the possibilities opened up by one key feature of Rhino, namely its ability to be driven by a computer program rather than by a human designer.</p>
<p>Each operation executed through Rhino’s graphical user interface has an equivalent operation invoked by a textual command. Rhino supported the ability first to group multiple such commands together to execute a sequence of operations, and then provided full programmability using a scripting language (RhinoScript) and an associated application programming interface (API).<sup id="fnref:6"><a href="#fn:6" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">6</a></sup></p>
<p>Beginning in the mid-2000s Fornes and others pioneered techniques for <em>form finding</em>, that is, using the computer to generate potential structural forms from scratch, instead of using it simply as a way to digitally instantiate forms originally created by hand. They proselytized this new way of working through traditional in-person workshops and conferences as well as via the new medium of Internet blogs, including Fornes’s own blog theverymany.net.</p>
<p>Fornes conceived of this work as experimental: starting with certain premises, assuming certain constraints, and then finding ways to create designs within those constraints. The designs were created using “very clear protocols, sets of mathematical relationships, algorithms, [and] geometrical transformations” (in other words, what Fornes referred to as an “explicit” way of working), which in turn were instantiated (or “encoded,” as Fornes put it) in text files written in a particular computer programming language.</p>
<p>These designs also featured what Fornes referred to as “precise indetermination”. “Precise” meant that the programs made little or no use of randomness (the example in the figure above is a rare exception) and thus produced consistently reproducible output from run to run (especially important for fabrication of the resulting design). However the designs were also “indeterminate,” because the inherent complexity of the programs (including the interaction between different subprograms and their algorithms “fighting against each other”) made it difficult for the designer to predict ahead of time exactly how a design would turn out.</p>
<p>At first Fornes’s experiments were in digital form only, and in most cases they bore little resemblance to real-life structures. (See for example the above figure.)  Many resembled nothing so much as exercises in advanced mathematics, which in a sense they were.</p>
<p>Following on from the original academic and industry researchers who created the mathematics and associated algorithms for NURBS curves and surfaces, Fornes and others used software like Rhino to play with the application of mathematical concepts to design: recursive definitions of surfaces and solids, fractals and L-systems, cellular automata, vector fields, Voronoi tesselations and Delaunay triangulations, and so on.<sup id="fnref:7"><a href="#fn:7" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">7</a></sup> Fornes’s blog posts in 2006 and 2007 document this work, typically pairing striking images with the RhinoScript code or pseudocode that produced them.</p>
<p>Fornes also combined his day-to-day work as an architect with an increasingly heavy schedule of academic work at Columbia University in New York, the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, die Angewandte (the University of Applied Arts) in Vienna, and elsewhere, as well as instructional classes in RhinoScript programming for McNeel and related activities at workshops, conferences, and exhibitions.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/y-surf-struc-assembly.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/y-surf-struc-assembly-embed.jpg"
         alt="Two stages in the assembly of Y/Surf/Struc (part of the permanent collection of the Centre Pompidou in Paris): an assembled module of the structure surrounded by cut strips of aluminum sheet to be riveted together to form other modules (L), and the assembly team connecting the modules to form the final structure (R). (Click for a higher-resolution version.) The striped effect is produced by some aluminum strips being painted on one or both sides. Images © 2011 Marc Fornes; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Two stages in the assembly of <a href="https://theverymany.com/constructs/11-centre-pompidou/">Y/Surf/Struc</a> (part of the permanent collection of the Centre Pompidou in Paris): an assembled module of the structure surrounded by cut strips of aluminum sheet to be riveted together to form other modules (L), and the assembly team connecting the modules to form the final structure (R). (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The striped effect is produced by some aluminum strips being painted on one or both sides. Images © 2011 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="iterative-improvement">Iterative improvement</h2>
<p>Although the designs produced by Marc Fornes and others could be viewed as striking works of art, Fornes conceived of himself not as an artist but as an architect, someone whose designs were actually built, or at least buildable.</p>
<p>Thus beginning in 2008 Fornes and his associates in THEVERYMANY began work on a series of what he called “prototypical structures”: structures not intended for permanent use by actual inhabitants, but rather created to explore various design techniques and methods for fabrication and assembly. Fornes and his team both designed the structures and assembled them, thus echoing the ancient tradition of folk architecture based on nonlinear forms, in which the roles of the “architects” and the “builders” were blurred.</p>
<p>In creating these prototypical structures Fornes and his associates also adopted an approach reminiscent of both traditional architecture and the Silicon Valley dictum “fail fast, fail often”. (Fornes hyberbolically referred to several of these projects as “big-time failure[s].”)  Any problems encountered in creating the structures were treated not as fatal errors but as opportunities to learn what went wrong and fix it for the next iteration.</p>
<p>One of the first problems that presented itself was translating the curved surfaces of the design into flat elements that could be fabricated (e.g., in sheet plastic or aluminum) and then assembled. Because at the time there was no automated way to do this for arbitrary elements, Fornes created ways to design surfaces that both provided for three-dimensionality (necessary to create self-supporting structures) and also were composed of a relatively small number of unique regular elements that could be relatively easily arrayed on a sheet of material and then cut out and riveted together.</p>
<p>But even though the parts were relatively easy to fabricate, assembling them into an actual structure proved very difficult, requiring constant referral to the original digitally-rendered design in order to determine which elements attached to which others. In the end Fornes and his team were never able to complete the assembly of one such structure&mdash;although as it turned out the gallery for which it was intended had never seen the correct rendering, liked the structure as is, and even invited them to create another one.</p>
<p>In order to reduce assembly time Fornes and his associates adopted the practice of tagging the individual fabricated elements with encoded information regarding the other elements to which they connected. This reduced the need to refer back to the digital model and decreased assembly time by an order of magnitude.</p>
<p>Still other problems soon presented themselves. In scaling up to larger structures Fornes used thicker materials for the structural elements. This caused the weights of the structures to increase, which in turn made it more difficult for the structures to bear their own “dead load” and stand up by themselves. Because all elements of the structures had to be riveted to each other using pre-made holes, Fornes and his team of assemblers also encountered problems when tiny misalignments in connecting the elements built up and caused problems when assembling the final elements in the structures.</p>
<p>Advances in CAD software helped with some of the problems previously encountered, as the popularity of the Rhino 3D modeling product spurred the growth of a “ecosystem” of add-on products and related capabilities. For example, McNeel’s Grasshopper add-on provided a visual programming language to supplement traditional RhinoScript programs, while the third-party product RhinoNest optimized the process of “nesting” arbitrary structural elements onto flat sheets to be laser cut or milled with minimal wasting of material.</p>
<p>These advances were not panaceas. Fornes and his designers might now be able to create designs featuring arbitrarily-large numbers of unique structural elements and to nest those elements onto sheets for cutting or milling, but assembling such elements was still time-consuming&mdash;so time-consuming as to often be impractical for a small team working against a deadline.</p>
<p>One way Fornes reduced assembly time was to combine multiple individual elements into one elongated element, producing strips of material to be further combined into structural components. (See the figure above, in which painting some of the strips made this technique visible as colored stripes on the final structure.)  But building a structure out of long strips could lead to other problems, as Fornes found when he designed a structure to be made of wood veneer and accidentally nested the strips in a way that went against the grain of the wood, thereby weakening them. (The resulting structure collapsed while being transported to the exhibition site.)</p>
<p>Nonetheless Fornes and his associates perservered in their pursuit of learning through failure and iterative improvement, and succeeded in creating more and more striking and successful projects: structures large enough to be experienced as spaces rather than just as sculptures, structures whose unassembled elements were small and light enough to be transported halfway around the world in the team’s suitcases (echoing the experiences of nomads who carried their homes with them), structures designed for easy storage when necessary, structures made of aluminum, or plastic, or carbon fiber&mdash;all leveraging an increasingly sophisticated repertoire of design, fabrication, and assembly techniques.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/dap-chrysalis-rendering.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/dap-chrysalis-rendering-embed.png"
         alt="The Chrysalis design as rendered, showing the pleats in the surface. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Adapted from the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel on February 26, 2014. Image © 2013 Marc Fornes; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Chrysalis design as rendered, showing the pleats in the surface. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Adapted from the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel on February 26, 2014. Image © 2013 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-genesis-of-the-chrysalis">The genesis of the Chrysalis</h2>
<p>As the second decade of the 21st century began, Marc Fornes received increasing attention as an architect to watch. In 2010 he quit his day job at a large architectural firm and converted THEVERYMANY from an informal project into an independent design studio, gaining more freedom to pursue his own projects. (As he put it to writer Terri Peters, “I realized nobody is ever going to commission me to do what I want to do, so I thought, what can I commission myself to do?”)</p>
<p>The years 2011 and 2012 saw a number of new projects for THEVERYMANY, including for the Centre Pompidou (shown above), FRAC Centre, and Atelier Calder in France, and Washington University at St Louis and Art Basel Miami in the US. Those years also marked the beginning of the events that would eventually lead to the creation of the Chrysalis.</p>
<p>As previously described, after his appearance at the Columbia Association resident “speak out” in September 2011 Michael McCall of Strategic Leisure began thinking seriously about creating a concept plan for a new park in Symphony Woods. Throughout 2012 McCall created a series of presentations outlining such a plan.</p>
<p>When creating Columbia, Jim Rouse had sponsored the work of Frank Gehry when Gehry was just starting his career; the results included Merriweather Post Pavilion and the Rouse Company headquarters building. In creating his concept plan for Symphony Woods (at the heart of Columbia), Michael McCall, formerly a Vice President at Rouse’s Enterprise Development Corporation, saw the opportunity to emulate his mentor by calling upon the talents of a new generation of promising architects. Thus when McCall created his concept plan presentations, to inspire his audiences and show how the plan might be implemented he highlighted the work of various innovative architects and artists, including in particular Marc Fornes.</p>
<p>In February 2013 McCall made a public presentation of the new “Inner Arbor” concept plan proposed by the Columbia Association as an alternative to the previous “Paumier plan”. Again this presentation mentioned Marc Fornes, in the context of the “Treehouse amphitheater” element of the concept plan.</p>
<p>In the subsequent months the Inner Arbor Trust was officially established and began the process of selecting designers for the various plan elements. In a presentation to Leadership Howard County in September 2013 McCall again mentioned Fornes as one of the designers who were candidates for possible commissions.</p>
<p>In that same presentation McCall also laid out the goals of the amphitheater element of the Inner Arbor plan: to serve as a stage for performances (including as a secondary stage for Merriweather Post Pavilion), as a pavilion for family reunions, church picnics, weddings, and similar events, and as a sculpture that would be a beautiful addition to the park during other times.</p>
<p>In November 2013 the Inner Arbor Trust formally announced the selection of Marc Fornes as part of the design team for the Inner Arbor plan, what Michael McCall termed the “Designers of Delight”. Shortly thereafter, at a community meeting on December 2, Fornes presented the design for what was now referred to as the “Chrysalis.”</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/dap-chrysalis-mesh-plan-view.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/dap-chrysalis-mesh-plan-view-embed.png"
         alt="The underlying quadrilateral mesh of the Chrysalis design as seen from above after inflation. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The darker lines in the mesh mark the peaks of the pleats. Adapted from the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel on February 26, 2014. Image © 2013 Marc Fornes; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The underlying quadrilateral mesh of the Chrysalis design as seen from above after inflation. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  The darker lines in the mesh mark the peaks of the pleats. Adapted from the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel on February 26, 2014. Image © 2013 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="mesh-inflation">Mesh inflation</h2>
<p>The design of the Chrysalis was created using a process Fornes called “pleated inflation,” a variant of “mesh inflation”. The technique of mesh inflation was made possible by the increasingly sophisticated applications built on the Rhino modeling software, including the Grasshopper visual programming language, the Kangaroo physics simulation add-on to Grasshopper, and similar tools.</p>
<p>In mesh inflation the tools start with a flat surface of a certain shape specified by the designer. The form of the surface will determine the final form of the structure. For example, in the Chrysalis mesh inflation (see the first figure above) the initial surface (outlined in yellow) has nine “projections” or “peninsulas” that will end up as the legs of the Chrysalis.</p>
<p>The tools then divide up the surface to create a mesh of four-sided shapes (quadrilaterals). In the case of the Chrysalis the lines of the mesh run “lengthwise” along the projections (purple in the first figure above) and “crosswise” across them (blue in the figure). The way those projections (or more specifically, the lengthwise lines of the mesh) join to each other then determines the way the “vaults” of the Chrysalis intersect with each other.</p>
<p>Once the mesh is defined, the tools then treat the lines of the mesh (the sides of the quadrilaterals) as if they were springs (of varying degrees of stiffness) connecting together the vertices of the mesh (the places where the lines of the mesh cross) and providing tension between them. The exact simulated stiffnesses can be tweaked by the designer to achieve various effects.</p>
<p>Some vertices at the edge of the mesh are constrained to remain attached to the “ground”. These places are to be the bases of the “legs” of the final structure. (For the Chrysalis these vertices are the ones at the ends of the nine projections of the initial surface.)</p>
<p>The tools then simulate an upward force applied to the vertices of the mesh. The simulated force causes the vertices to move vertically into the “air,” but they are constrained by the tension placed on them by the simulated springs between them, or (for designated vertices at the edge) by their attachment to the “ground.”</p>
<p>Other simulated forces can be applied in other directions, most notably outward from the surface as it evolves. The net effect is that the initially flat mesh “inflates“ into a 3-dimensional structure, analogous to a balloon being blown up or an inflatable tent being filled with air.</p>
<p>Fornes used the mesh inflation technique (what he called “a computationally derived dynamic spring network with behavioral attributes”) in designing the sculpture “Vaulted Willow” for Borden Park in Edmonton, Alberta. The first figure above and its linked video show a similar technique as used in creating the Chrysalis design.</p>
<p>The Chrysalis design as presented in the pre-submission meeting and to the Design Advisory Panel was more complicated than could be produced using the same type of mesh inflation used for the Vaulted Willow project. Instead Fornes used a variant technique he called “pleated inflation,” previously used in designing a structure of the same name in Argelès-sur-Mer in France.</p>
<p>In the pleated inflation technique certain “lengthwise” lines through the original mesh and their associated vertices are marked out as special. During the inflation process the simulated forces and/or tensions are varied such that the resulting surface is not smooth, but instead assumes a corrugated or pleated appearance, with the peaks of the pleats running along the previously marked lines.</p>
<p>In the Argelès-sur-Mer amphitheater, which is built solely from flat aluminum shingles folded and then riveted together, the resulting pleats supply stiffness to the overall architectural form and help ensure the integrity of the structure.  The pleats in the Chrysalis also provide structural integrity, supplemented by additional elements as discussed below. In addition the Chrysalis pleats help channel rain water and snow melt off the structure.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-under-construction.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-under-construction-embed.jpg"
         alt="The Chrysalis under construction in the fall of 2016. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Compare to the design rendering above. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Chrysalis under construction in the fall of 2016. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Compare to the design rendering above. Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="sculpture-pavilion-stage">Sculpture, pavilion, stage</h2>
<p>Recall again the three roles of the Chrysalis: as a sculpture, a pavilion, and a stage. As a sculpture the Chrysalis follows in the tradition of previous THEVERYMANY projects in its nonlinear form, though its shape is relatively simple and straightforward compared to projects like Y/Surf/Struc (shown above).</p>
<p>Though the Chrysalis design has a simpler shape than that of Y/Surf/Struc, it makes more sophisticated and subtle use of color. In structures like Y/Surf/Struc color was used mainly to highlight the underlying plan of the design&mdash;as Marc Fornes remarked, “It’s not for [the color] that we got invited [to the Centre Pompidou].”</p>
<p>Fornes used color more imaginatively and playfully in later projects like Vaulted Willow, befitting its role as a public art piece for a park. The aluminum shingles forming the structure go from predominantly purple and blue at the base to blue and green and then to green and yellow at the top, with the eye perceiving a gradient of color built from a series of single-color shingles.</p>
<p>The Chrysalis uses a similar scheme, albeit with a more restricted range of colors (being similar to the Pleated Inflation structure in that respect). As a larger structure in a wooded setting, its colors span a range of greens to echo its surroundings. As with Vaulted Willow, the Chrysalis as constructed (see the figure above) shows the effect of a sophisticated “dithering” technique, designed to use a limited color palette (only four colors of shingles in the Chrysalis) to simulate a broader range of colors. The end effect as perceived by the eye is a relatively smooth gradient running from a darker green at the bottom to a lighter green at the top.</p>
<p>In its role as a pavilion the Chrysalis differs from previous THEVERYMANY projects mainly in being designed to provide a solid shell. Previous projects, including the Pleated Inflation amphitheater, used shingles that were perforated in various ways, using a technique to determine the shape and location of the perforations that Fornes calls “agent-based porosity”. Since the Chrysalis is intended for uses such as picnics and weddings that might be held in inclement weather, its surface is solid and designed (using the pleats) to channel water away from participants.</p>
<p>The Chrysalis is also considerably larger than any other THEVERYMANY project, easily twice the width, depth, and height of its “little brother,” the Pleated Inflation structure. This means that the area under the shell (about five thousand square feet in total) is much larger than that associated with the other projects, providing sufficient room to shelter fairly large gatherings.</p>
<p>The final role of the Chrysalis, as a performance stage, put the most demands on the design. The Chrysalis stage is actually two stages in one: the larger or “alpha” stage facing west, and a smaller “beta” stage facing south. These stages were not intended just for community and school plays and concerts and other relatively small-scale events. Instead the alpha stage was also intended to serve as a secondary stage for Merriweather Post Pavilion, for example during large music festivals.</p>
<p>Over the years the increased appetite of concert-goers for elaborate productions has led acts to impose ever greater technical requirements on the venues seeking to host them: more stage space, greater electrical capacity, and&mdash;most important&mdash;the ability to hang ever larger and heavier lighting rigs and audio equipment.</p>
<p>In the case of Merriweather Post Pavilion this trend led to the eventual replacement of the existing stage and stagehouse with larger facilities. In the case of the Chrysalis it greatly increased the loads that the Chrysalis would have to bear, as specified in the technical requirements worked out among the Inner Arbor Trust, I.M.A. (the operators of Merriweather Post Pavilion), and other parties.</p>
<p>In particular the Chrysalis shell would have to support a much greater load due to hanging equipment (up to 40,000 pounds in total per the technical requirements), and a correspondingly greater risk of having “point loads” damage the structure. (For example, think of roadies inadvertently attaching heavy equipment at one place on the structure without balancing the load at attach points elsewhere.)</p>
<p>This load was in addition to the static load of the structure’s own weight, potential additional load due to snowfalls, and potential dynamic loads due to high winds hitting the structure from various angles. The total surface area upon which wind can act is much greater for the Chrysalis than for other THEVERYMANY projects, and the resulting wind force correspondingly larger. The planned-for wind load, at about 60,000 pounds, is actually higher than the anticipated load due to theatrical equipment.</p>
<p>Given the anticipated and planned-for loads, the Chrysalis does not rely solely on pleated metal shingles to provide structural integrity. The Chrysalis design uses pleated shingles for the outer surface and then supplements them with an inner framework of curved steel elements underneath the shingles. (See future articles in this series for more information on this steel framework and the means by which the shingles are attached to it.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-shingles.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-shingles-embed.jpg"
         alt="A close-up of the Chrysalis shingles showing the different colors used.  (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A close-up of the Chrysalis shingles showing the different colors used.  (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2016 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="the-significance-of-the-chrysalis">The significance of the Chrysalis</h2>
<p>The Chrysalis is special in many ways. First, it represents the largest structure yet designed by Marc Fornes, and in its role as a modern performance stage must meet more demanding real-life requirements than any previous THEVERYMANY project. Its creation marks another step in the evolution of Fornes as an architect and THEVERYMANY as a studio, consistent with his goal to “learn, grow, and grow in scale.”</p>
<p>Second, for the Inner Arbor Trust the Chrysalis is the first element of the Inner Arbor plan to take tangible form. Its successful completion confirms the wisdom of the Columbia Association in investing the Inner Arbor Trust with the responsibility of creating a new park for Symphony Woods, and helps position the Trust for future success in carrying out the remainder of the Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<p>Finally, for the people of Columbia and Howard County, who funded the design and construction of the Chrysalis and will be its primary users, the Chrysalis is a unique and beautiful addition to downtown Columbia, fully capable of fulfilling its roles as stage, pavilion, and sculpture, and a structure that&mdash;along with a renovated Merriweather Post Pavilion&mdash;will serve as an anchor around which the vision of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods can be realized.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>For more on Bézier and NURBS curves see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://www.alatown.com/spline-history-architecture/">On the Spline: A Brief History of the Computational Curve</a>,” by Alastair Townsend. A non-mathematical explanation of the historical and technical aspects of Bézier and NURBS curves.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.farinhansford.com/gerald/papers/history.pdf">A History of Curves and Surfaces in CAGD</a>,” by Gerald Farin. A more technical history of computer aided geometric design.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://www.kth.se/social/files/55492c7ff276542758826f0e/deCasteljau_en.pdf">My Time at Citroën</a>,” by Paul de Casteljau. An autobiographical article that provides some amusing insights concerning de Casteljau and the environment in which he worked at Citroën.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://nurbscalculator.in/">NURBS-Calculator</a>.” An interactive web-based demo that allows you to manipulate and create NURBS and Bézier curves. (You can even use it on smartphones and tablets.)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on architectural design software and associated techniques see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="https://priceonomics.com/the-software-behind-frank-gehrys-geometrically/">The Software Behind Frank Gehry’s Geometrically Complex Architecture</a>,” by Lian Chang. Outlines the history behind the adoption of CATIA for Frank Gehry’s projects.</li>
<li>“The Way of Rhino” (<a href="http://gfxspeak.com/2010/11/26/the-way-of-rhino-part-1-cad-master-bob%E2%80%99s-most-excellent-launch-trajectory/">part 1</a>, <a href="http://gfxspeak.com/2010/11/29/the-way-of-rhino-part-2-behold-the-cad-whisperer/">part 2</a>, <a href="http://gfxspeak.com/2011/07/15/2007-the-way-of-rhino-part-3-tracking-the-coming-perfect-storm-in-cad/">part 3</a>, and <a href="http://gfxspeak.com/2011/07/15/2007-the-way-of-rhino-part-4-the-passion-of-the-rhino/">part 4</a>), by Randall Newton. A 2007 series of articles providing an in-depth look at Robert McNeel &amp; Associates, creators of Rhino, and their impact on the CAD market.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://aecmag.com/software-mainmenu-32/293-rhino-grasshopper">Rhino Grasshopper</a>,” by Martyn Day. A 2009 article describing the then-new Grasshopper add-on to Rhino for visual scripting of geometry.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://grasshopperprimer.com/en/index.html">Grasshopper Primer</a>,” by Mode Lab. For readers who are programmers this offers an interesting glimpse into a visual programming language specialized for manipulation of geometric objects.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on Marc Fornes and his work see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://theverymany.com/">theverymany.com</a> is the most comprehensive source of information on Fornes and the work of THEVERYMANY. In addition to the projects highlighted on the main page, the <a href="https://theverymany.com/page/1/?attachment_id">archived blog posts on theverymany.com</a> form a continuous record of Fornes’s work from late 2005 to 2014.  (Keep scrolling to read earlier posts.)  The posts in 2006 and 2007 are particularly interesting for their inclusion of sample RhinoScript code.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://architecturewriter.weebly.com/uploads/1/4/4/9/1449521/mark_marc_fornes.pdf">Marc Fornes Creates Spaces He Has Never Seen Before</a>,” by Terri Peters. A 2010 article that provides a good summary of Fornes’s design philosophy and working methods.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.core77.com/posts/32359/Tech-Specs-Marc-Fornes-Founder-of-THEVERYMANY">Tech Specs: Marc Fornes, Founder of THEVERYMANY</a>,” by Mason Currey. A 2015 article in which Fornes discusses the computer software and other tools he uses in his work.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.scriptedbypurpose.net">scriptedbypurpose</a>. A 2007 exhibition curated by Fornes, its website contains many examples of experimental designs produced by RhinoScript code.</li>
<li>(n)Certainties (<a href="https://ncertainties.wordpress.com/">original</a>, <a href="https://ncertainties2.wordpress.com/">v2.0</a>, <a href="https://ncertainties3.wordpress.com/">v3.0</a>, <a href="https://ncertainties4.wordpress.com/">v4.0</a>, and <a href="https://ncertainties5.wordpress.com/">v5.0</a>). A series of workshops held at Columbia and USC from 2007 to 2009 by Fornes, Francois Roche, and Stephan Henrich, their websites also contain many experimental designs with accompanying RhinoScript code.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/53166191">D01 06 Marc Fornes Structurant Bark</a>” [40-minute video]. A presentation by Marc Fornes at the symposium “PROTO/E/CO/LOGICS 002: The Field is Open,” held September 1-2, 2012, in Rovinj, Croatia. It includes discussions of the series of “prototypical structures” and lessons learned in creating them.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/191568080">Unabashed Designers of Delight</a>” [121-minute video] (November 18, 2013). A presentation introducing the design team for the Inner Arbor plan. It includes a presentation by Marc Fornes beginning at 58:26 that discusses a number of THEVERYMANY projects, including the amphitheater at Argelès-sur-Mer.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.aaschool.ac.uk/VIDEO/lecture.php?ID=3246">The Art of the Prototypical</a>” [74-minute video] (October 26, 2015). A presentation by Marc Fornes at his alma mater, the Design Research Lab of the Architectural Association in London.  It includes a discussion of more recent projects, including brief comments on the Chrysalis.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>
<p>For more on the Chrysalis amphitheater and its origins in the Inner Arbor concept plan, see the following:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">Michael McCall’s presentation of the Inner Arbor concept plan to Leadership Howard County</a> [33-minute video] (September 20, 2013).</li>
<li>The Chrysalis portion of the <a href="http://inartrust.org/community-presentation/">Inner Arbor pre-submission community presentation</a> (December 2, 2013).</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Michael McCall presentation to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> [20-minute video] (February 26, 2014).</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/147476089">Chrysalis mesh inflation</a>” [68-minute video]. A video showing the process of mesh inflation for the Chrysalis. Note that most of the video is blank, with the only content being the initial two minutes and from 41:40 on.</li>
<li>“<a href="https://vimeo.com/147473580">Mesh pleated inflation, Argeles</a>” [2-minute video]. A brief video showing the process of mesh inflation for the “Pleated Inflation” amphitheater in Argelès-sur-Mer, including the creation of the pleats in the surface (not shown in the equivalent Chrysalis video).</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernstein_polynomial">Bernstein polynomials</a> are a special type of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polynomial">polynomial</a> discovered in the early 1900s by the mathematician Sergei Natanovich Bernstein, who showed that they could be used to approximate any continuous function on a closed interval. For example, the Bernstein polynomials of degree 2 are (1 - <i>t</i>
)<sup>2</sup>
, 2<i>t</i>
(1 - <i>t</i>
), and <i>t</i>
<sup>2</sup>
. (In standard form these are <i>t</i>
<sup>2</sup>
 - 2<i>t</i>
 + 1, -2<i>t</i>
<sup>2</sup>
 + 2<i>t</i>
, and <i>t</i>
<sup>2</sup>
.)  Note that only the first polynomial is nonzero when <i>t</i>
 = 0, and only the last polynomial is nonzero when <i>t</i>
 = 1; this is a general property of Bernstein polynomials.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>More specifically, the point on the curve corresponding to a particular value of <em>t</em> is a linear combination of the control points, with the coefficient for each control point being the value of that point’s associated Bernstein polynomial for that value of <i>t</i>
.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The work at Citroën was first referenced in the public literature in 1971, and de Casteljau’s role in that work was first revealed in the late 1970s. Many years later de Casteljau was honored by the Solid Modeling Association, receiving its <a href="http://solidmodeling.org/awards/bezier-award/paul-de-faget-de-casteljau/">2012 Bézier Award</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>In mathematical terms this smoothness has to do with the continuity of the derivatives of the function defining the curve in terms of its underlying parameter: C<sub><i>0</i></sub>
 continuity means the curve’s function is continuous, C<sub><i>1</i></sub>
 continuity that the first derivative of the function is continuous, C<sub><i>2</i></sub>
 continuity that the second derivative is continuous, and so on. If a curve lacks C<sub><i>0</i></sub>
 continuity at certain points then it will have gaps at those points, and if it lacks C<sub><i>1</i></sub>
 continuity it will have kinks. C<sub><i>1</i></sub>
 continuity (or a weaker form known as G<sub><i>1</i></sub>
 geometric continuity) is the minimum requirement for the curve to appear smooth, with a fully-pleasing smoothness typically requiring at least C<sub><i>2</i></sub>
 (or G<sub><i>2</i></sub>
) continuity.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>The order of a spline function is one greater than the degree of the polynomial expressions of which it is composed. Thus a spline function containing cubic polynomials (i.e., of degree 3) has order 4. The order in turn determines the number of B-spline functions for that type of spline&mdash;there are four such functions in our example.&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:6">
<p>As noted, Rhino began life as a product available solely for Microsoft Windows. The scripting language RhinoScript was based on the language used in Microsoft’s Visual Basic product. Later McNeel added the ability to use the popular open source programming language Python as an alternative to RhinoScript, and ported Rhino to Mac OS X.&#160;<a href="#fnref:6" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:7">
<p>If you’re reading these footnotes you presumably know what recursion and fractals are. See Wikipedia for more information on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L-system">L-systems</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cellular_automaton">cellular automata</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_field">vector fields</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voronoi_diagram">Voronoi tesselations</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delaunay_triangulation">Delaunay triangulations</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:7" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Politics and process</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2016/01/17/creating-the-chrysalis-politics-and-process/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 17 Jan 2016 13:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2016/01/17/creating-the-chrysalis-politics-and-process/</guid>
      <description>I discuss the various institutional activities related to implementation of the Inner Arbor plan</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-groundbreaking-participants.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-groundbreaking-participants-embed.jpg"
         alt="Participants in the groundbreaking for the Chrysalis"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Participants in the Chrysalis groundbreaking ceremony, representing the various entities involved in Merriweather-Symphony Woods development. From left to right: It’s My Amphitheater President Brad Canfield and General Manager Jean Parker (operators of Merriweather Post Pavilion), the Downtown Arts and Culture Commission Acting Executive Director Ian Kennedy, Maryland State Delegate Clarence Lam, Inner Arbor Trust Chair Martin Knott, Howard Hughes Vice President of Development Greg Fitchitt, Howard County Council Member Greg Fox, Howard County Executive Allan Kittleman, Inner Arbor Trust President and CEO Michael McCall, Howard County Council Chair Mary Kay Sigaty, Columbia Festival of the Arts Executive Director Todd Olson, Columbia Association President and CEO Milton Matthews, Howard County Council Member Jon Weinstein, and Howard County Council Member Dr. Calvin Ball. Click for a higher-resolution version. Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I discuss the various institutional activities related to implementation of the Inner Arbor plan, with a focus on the Columbia Association, the Inner Arbor Trust, and the Howard County government, including its planning process.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The <a href="/2015/11/01/creating-the-chrysalis-vision-and-strategy/">previous article</a> in this series described the vision and strategy for creating a new park in Symphony Woods according to the Inner Arbor plan. This article picks up where the <a href="/2015/10/25/creating-the-chrysalis-symphony-woods/">first article</a> in the series left off, describing the process that led to the Columbia Association’s adopting the Inner Arbor plan and creating the Inner Arbor Trust as an independent organization to implement it, along with the history of the Inner Arbor Trust and related events up to the present.</p>
<h3 id="organizations-and-their-roles">Organizations and their roles</h3>
<p>As in the previous events relating to downtown Columbia development in general and Symphony Woods in particular, multiple organizations played a role in this history in addition to the Inner Arbor Trust itself:</p>
<ul>
<li>The Columbia Association was at the center of the story, at least initially, due to its ownership of the Symphony Woods, its plan in progress for developing a park on that property, and its creation of and ongoing relationship with the Inner Arbor Trust.</li>
<li>The Howard County government served variously as a promoter of downtown Columbia development (both formally through the Downtown Columbia Plan and informally in various ways), the regulator of such development (through the Department of Planning and Zoning, the Planning Board, and the Design Advisory Panel), a funder of Symphony Woods development (through the County Executive and County Council), and a future user of park features (through the Department of Parks and Recreation and its sponsorship of the Wine in the Woods festival).</li>
<li>The Howard Hughes Corporation had by this time assumed the role previously filled by General Growth Properties (and before GGP the Rouse Company) as the owner of Merriweather Post Pavilion, situated within and surrounded by Symphony Woods. Howard Hughes and It’s My Amphitheater, Inc. (the operators of the pavilion) played key roles in promoting integration of Symphony Woods development with redevelopment of Merriweather Post Pavilion. They were joined by the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission, the county-created nonprofit organization slated to take over ownership of the pavilion property from Howard Hughes.</li>
<li>Other players included the state of Maryland (which had previously provided a grant to CA for Symphony Woods development) and the Columbia Festival of the Arts (a future user of park features).</li>
</ul>
<h2 id="2012-rethinking">2012: Rethinking</h2>
<p>As of the fall of 2012 the Columbia Association was faced with a decision on what to do about Symphony Woods development. Although the Howard County Planning Board<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> had nominally approved the CA-created Final Development Plan for Symphony Woods Park (FDP-DC-MSW-1, based on the so-called “Paumier plan”), the Planning Board had attached recommendations to that approval that in practice required a major rethink of the original plan.</p>
<p>At that point after two years of work the Columbia Association had a diagram for a pathway system and a concept design for a fountain, but no detailed designs for other park features. CA was in the position of having to make significant changes to its existing design prior to taking them to the next stage of the county planning process (i.e., in the form of a Site Development Plan), as well as having to flesh out those parts of the design yet unfinished. Besides the impact on CA staff, the financial stakes were also high since the costs of preparing and implementing an SDP would be considerably greater than those incurred for the FDP.</p>
<p>The Columbia Association had been urged for some time to coordinate its plans with those being created by the Howard Hughes Corporation. The previous April Howard Hughes had recommended that CA look at a new concept plan being created by Michael McCall for the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood. This advice was apparently being echoed by others.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<h3 id="the-ca-board-considers-alternatives">The CA board considers alternatives</h3>
<p>On October 5, 2012, Columbia Association President and CEO Phil Nelson recommended that the CA board devote time in its first October meeting to discussing various questions relating to Symphony Woods development, including the possibility of partnering on Symphony Woods development with another organization, and of revising the Symphony Woods plan to take into account planned redevelopment of Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>On October 11 the Columbia Association Board of Directors held a work session at which Phil Nelson discussed options for Symphony Woods development and the CA board took a number of straw polls on how to move forward. Those board members present (all except Cynthia Coyle) expressed unanimous support for the idea of forming a separate organization to develop Symphony Woods. Although the work session was public, no one spoke during the Resident Speak Out portion of the meeting&mdash;in fact no one from the general public attended the board meeting at all (according to a later recollection by board member Andy Stack).</p>
<p>Thus the possibility that the Columbia Association might change its strategy for Symphony Woods development, as well as the behind-the-scenes work to create a new concept plan, went unnoticed and unremarked for the most part, as the CA board devoted its meetings to other topics the rest of the year.</p>
<h2 id="2013-creating">2013: Creating</h2>
<p>That period of relative quiet ended in late January 2013 with the public unveiling of the Inner Arbor concept plan created by Michael McCall of Strategic Leisure. (See the <a href="/2015/11/01/creating-the-chrysalis-vision-and-strategy/">previous article</a> in this series for an in-depth discussion of this concept plan.)</p>
<h3 id="implementing-the-inner-arbor-plan-via-a-separate-organization">Implementing the Inner Arbor plan via a separate organization</h3>
<p>After the Columbia Association released information on the concept plan on January 18, at the January 24 CA board meeting CA President Phil Nelson presented several recommendations to the board:</p>
<ul>
<li>That the Columbia Association adopt the Inner Arbor concept plan as the overall framework to guide future development of Symphony Woods as a whole.</li>
<li>That CA adopt Symphony Woods as the preferred location for a new CA headquarters. This proposal had been discussed back in 2005, and was included in the Inner Arbor concept plan as a suggestion for the eastern part of Symphony Woods.</li>
<li>That the CA board instruct CA management to establish a separate “Trust” to carry out development of Symphony Woods on behalf of CA.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></li>
<li>That CA enter into a perpetual easement agreement providing the trust organization the necessary rights to carry out development according to the Inner Arbor concept plan.</li>
<li>That CA transfer to the trust organization funds that CA had allocated for Symphony Woods development in its current and future budgets.</li>
</ul>
<p>Nelson also noted that, per the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning, development of the northern section of Symphony Woods could proceed according to the already-approved Final Development Plan. (As <a href="/2015/11/01/creating-the-chrysalis-vision-and-strategy/">previously discussed</a>, the northern section of Symphony Woods encompassed the “public park” envisioned in the Inner Arbor concept plan, as distinguished from the “performance park” and “curated park” in the eastern and southern sections. The approved FDP incorporated not only a pathway system but also various proposed park elements in addition to a fountain, including an amphitheater, café, play area, and public art.)</p>
<p>On January 31 Michael McCall presented the Inner Arbor concept plan at a public meeting sponsored by the Columbia Association. On February 7 CA President Phil Nelson sent a memo to the CA board with an expanded and refined set of recommendations, proposing that CA</p>
<ul>
<li>adopt the Inner Arbor concept plan;</li>
<li>create a separate nonprofit organization that could qualify for 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status as the vehicle to carry out the plan;</li>
<li>negotiate a perpetual easement on the Symphony Woods property with the new organization; and</li>
<li>provide initial funding of $1.6 million to the new organization (representing CA’s already budgeted amount for Symphony Woods development).</li>
</ul>
<p>Nelson subsequently sent a revised memo to the Columbia Association Board of Directors on February 13, formalizing the recommendations made in the February 7 memo in preparation for the board’s consideration of them.</p>
<p>On February 14 the Columbia Association Board of Directors voted 8&ndash;2 to accept Nelson’s recommendations and move forward with the creation of a separate “Symphony Woods Trust”. Voting in favor were Regina Clay, Ed Coleman, Tom Coale, Michael Cornell, Gregg Schwind, Andy Stack, Suzanne Waller, and Shari Zaret; voting against were Cynthia Coyle and Alex Hekimian.</p>
<h3 id="inner-arbor-supporters-and-opponents">Inner Arbor supporters and opponents</h3>
<p>However this overwhelming approval by the Columbia Association Board of Directors did not end the dispute over CA’s change in direction regarding Symphony Woods development. The ensuing controversy in some ways mirrored the previous controversy in 2005 over General Growth Properties’s proposed master plan for downtown Columbia.</p>
<p>Several opponents of the previous GGP plan, including former CA board members Barbara Russell and Russ Swatek and community activist Alan Klein of the Coalition for Columbia’s Downtown, argued against the Inner Arbor concept plan for its proposal to put buildings in Symphony Woods, and also charged that the process of adopting the plan did not reflect adequate time for public input and discussion. They were joined in their opposition by Cy Paumier and some of his associates, who lobbied the CA board both privately and publicly for retention of the prior plan for Symphony Woods Park that they had created.</p>
<p>Beyond the Columbia Association Board of Directors itself, strong Inner Arbor plan supporters first and foremost included county elected officials, with Howard County Executive Ken Ulman making a public statement in support of the concept plan when it was first unveiled. Howard County Council members Calvin Ball and Mary Kay Sigaty followed up with a public letter referring to it as a “bold vision” in line with the Downtown Columbia Plan’s vision of a “cultural park where the landscape becomes a setting for arts, cultural and civic uses,” and County Council member Jen Terrasa argued in another public letter that the plan “invites the community back and creates a heart for Columbia right in Symphony Woods.”  Other expressions of support came from people and organizations previously promoting downtown Columbia development, including George Barker of Bring Back the Vision, Brian Dunn of Columbia 2.0, Phil Engelke of the New City Alliance, and Ian Kennedy of Awesome Columbia, as well as from various local bloggers, including Dennis Lane, Julia McCready, and Bill Woodcock, and (last but not least) from the editorial board of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>.</p>
<p>The Columbia Association Board of Directors election on April 20, although marked by typical low turnout,<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup> was seen by some as a referendum on the Inner Arbor plan. Plan opponent Russ Swatek and the relatively neutral Nancy McCord defeated plan proponents Ed Coleman and Regina Clay. However although reduced the pro-Inner Arbor plan majority on the CA board remained intact, with at least six of ten board members counted as clear supporters.</p>
<p>(In June later that year Tom Coale, one of the highest-profile champions of the Inner Arbor plan, resigned from the Columbia Association Board of Directors in order to run for the Maryland House of Delegates seat in District 9B. He was replaced by Tom O’Connor, also a supporter of the Inner Arbor plan. Thus the relative balance between supporters and opponents on the CA board remained unchanged.)</p>
<h3 id="creating-the-inner-arbor-trust-and-ensuring-its-independence">Creating the Inner Arbor Trust and ensuring its independence</h3>
<p>Meanwhile creation of the separate trust organization proceeded as previously approved by the Columbia Association Board of Directors back in February. On April 26 lawyers representing CA incorporated the new organization in Maryland as the Inner Arbor Trust, Inc., “to promote and support the revitalization of the Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood” in a manner compatible with IRS regulations relating to 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status. On May 10 the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors first met and adopted a set of bylaws.</p>
<p>As originally envisioned by the Columbia Association Board of Directors, and as specified in the articles of incorporation, the Inner Arbor Trust had a five-member board, with two members being elected from the CA board and the CA President being a third member. On March 28 the CA board elected Ed Coleman and Gregg Schwind to be its representatives on the Inner Arbor Trust board, with CA President Phil Nelson also taking a Trust board seat by virtue of his position as CA’s President and CEO.  (The first at-large Trust board members were Deborah Ellinghaus and Kent Humphries.)</p>
<p>However one of the first actions of the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors, taken at its initial meeting, was to expand the board from five members to seven, including four independent directors not associated with the Columbia Association. According to CA General Counsel Sheri Faranoff this was motivated by a need to show that the Inner Arbor Trust board was independent of and not controlled by the CA board in order to make a case to the IRS for 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status.<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup>  At the May 10 meeting this change was approved unanimously by the Inner Arbor Trust board, including the CA-associated board members, and reflected in the bylaws as signed and dated May 13.</p>
<p>The Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors then proceeded to elect two new members not associated with the Columbia Association, Gill Wylie and Beverly White-Seals. White-Seals, a former attorney for the Rouse Company, was also appointed Secretary for the Trust. Ed Coleman remained on the Trust board despite losing his CA board seat only a few weeks before, as the CA board did not appoint a new representative to take his place. Finally at its second meeting on May 30 the Trust selected as its Treasurer Rafia Siddiqui, the former Chief Financial Officer of the Columbia Association.</p>
<p>Once created the Inner Arbor Trust turned to the various tasks before it&mdash;negotiating an easement with the Columbia Association, applying for IRS 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status, acquiring funding, and refining the Inner Arbor plan&mdash;under the direction of Michael McCall, who had been appointed President and CEO of the Inner Arbor Trust, and whose firm Strategic Leisure, Inc., had been retained by the Inner Arbor Trust to provide support for Trust activities.</p>
<h3 id="howard-county-funding-of-the-inner-arbor-project">Howard County funding of the Inner Arbor project</h3>
<p>May 2013 also saw the Howard County Council&mdash;via an amendment by Council member Mary Kay Sigaty with the support of Howard County Executive Ken Ulman&mdash;unanimously appropriate up to $3.5 million in the FY14 budget for “planning, design, engineering, and construction costs for an amphitheater located in Symphony Woods”. This was on top of the previous commitment by CA to provide $1.6 million in initial funding for the Inner Arbor Trust. (An initial $450,000 of this commitment was paid by CA to the Trust prior to July 31.)</p>
<h3 id="designing-the-public-park">Designing the public park</h3>
<p>During the summer of 2013 the Inner Arbor Trust began selection of design firms and architects for the various proposed park features. On September 20, as part of a presentation to Leadership Howard County, Michael McCall announced the selection of Martha Schwartz Partners as landscape designers and artists and Baltimore firm Mahan Rykiel Associates as the landscape architect of record, along with the Burtonsville firm Gutschick, Little &amp; Weber as the civil engineers. (Mahan Rykiel and GLW had previously been involved with the work leading to the Final Development Plan.)</p>
<p>Two months later, on November 18, Michael McCall introduced the full design team (dubbed by him the “Designers of Delight”), adding THEVERYMANY (Marc Fornes), nArchitects (Mimi Hoang and Eric Bunge), and Arup (represented by Raj Patel) to Martha Schwartz Partners (represented by Martha Schwartz) and Mahan Rykiel Associates (represented by Scott Rykiel).</p>
<p>The Inner Arbor Trust closed 2013 with three important milestones:</p>
<p>First, on December 2 the Trust made its first public presentation of its plan for the northern “public park” portion of Symphony Woods, including the Chrysalis amphitheater, Butterfly guest services building, Caterpillar sculptural berm (embodying the “Art of Bounds” theme), and other park features. This presentation marked the “pre-submission meeting” stage of the Howard County planning process prior to submittal of a formal Site Development Plan. The meeting featured presentations from all members of the design team, as well as a presentation by Biohabitats, the firm hired by the Inner Arbor Trust to assist with environmental issues, including stream restoration.</p>
<h3 id="the-easement-agreement-between-ca-and-the-inner-arbor-trust">The easement agreement between CA and the Inner Arbor Trust</h3>
<p>Second, on December 11, 2013, the Inner Arbor Trust reached an agreement with the Columbia Association for a perpetual easement for the 37 acres of Symphony Woods, as well as for an additional 15 acres of open space in the Crescent property to be donated to CA in future by the Howard Hughes Corporation. The easement grant was split into multiple phases:</p>
<p>Phase 1 included the “public park” portion of Symphony Woods outlined in the concept plan, along with additional acreage adjacent to Merriweather Post Pavilion to the east, south, and west. (The inclusion of this additional land would prove critical in later dealings of the Inner Arbor Trust with the Howard Hughes Corporation.)  Phase 2 roughly corresponded to the “performance park” portion of the concept plan, phase 3 to the “curated park” portion, and phase 4 to the future Crescent acreage from Howard Hughes. (The easement agreement was subsequently revised on March 14, 2014, to include a thin strip of land along Little Patuxent Parkway&mdash;part of so-called “Lot 9B”&mdash;that had been inadvertently left off the original agreement.)</p>
<p>The easement agreement granted the Inner Arbor Trust an extensive set of rights, including rights to construct park features (including taking proposed features through the county planning process), to operate park features and hold park events (and realize revenue from such), and to enter into a broad range of legal agreements with third parties, including agreements supporting integration of the park with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>The Inner Arbor Trust did not immediately acquire that full set of rights for all four easement areas. The Columbia Association granted the full set of specified rights for the Phase 1 easement area upon the signing of the agreement. However granting of full rights outlined in the agreement for the other three easement areas&mdash;including in particular the rights to construct and operate new park features&mdash;was made contingent on the Trust completing construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater (which the agreement referenced under the name “Treehouse Stage” used in the concept plan) or another designated park feature in the Phase 1 easement area, as well as on other events unique to each phase.</p>
<p>Granting of full rights specified in the agreement for the Phase 2 easement area was also made contingent on “substantial completion” of the pathway system in the Phase 1 easement area, as well as on progression through step 9 of the county planning process (including approval of a Final Development Plan) for a structure in the Phase 2 easement area, as part of the “performance park” portion of the concept plan.</p>
<p>For Phase 3 granting of full rights under the agreement was also made contingent on the Inner Arbor Trust having sufficient funding to create and submit a Final Development Plan for a sculpture garden or botanical garden in the Phase 3 easement area as part of the “curated park” portion of the concept plan. Finally, granting of full rights for the Phase 4 easement area was also made contingent on the actual transfer of the Phase 4 acreage from Howard Hughes to the Columbia Association.</p>
<p>Although the phases were numbered sequentially, Phases 2 through 4 were in fact made independent of each other: Once the Inner Arbor Trust had completed the Chrysalis or other designated park feature in the Phase 1 easement area, granting the Trust the full rights specified in the agreement in any other easement area was dependent only on the requirement(s) for that particular area. (Thus, for example, the Trust could acquire full rights under the easement agreement for the open space transferred to the Columbia Association by the Howard Hughes Corporation prior to any work being done on the “performance park” or “curated park” portions of the concept plan.)</p>
<p>Permitted uses under the easement agreement were specified as those for “arts, cultural and civic purposes as broadly illustrated by the Concept Plan,” including performances, arts and cultural attractions, sculpture and art installations, gardens, various park features (including picnic areas and fountains), construction and operation of buildings to support the permitted uses, food and beverage sales, and temporary retail operations (e.g., for festivals).</p>
<h3 id="the-first-howard-county-grant-agreement">The first Howard County grant agreement</h3>
<p>Finally, on December 18 the Inner Arbor Trust entered into a grant agreement with Howard County under which the county agreed to provide funding in support of the design and construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater, as previously approved by the County Council in May. The first grant under this agreement was in the sum of $300,000, and supplemented the $1.6 million of committed CA funding. (In fulfillment of this commitment CA made a second payment of $450,000 prior to January 31, 2014.)</p>
<h2 id="2014-planning">2014: Planning</h2>
<p>The main theme of 2014 was the steady progression of the Inner Arbor plan through the Howard County planning process over organized opposition, including from some Columbia Association board members. For the Inner Arbor Trust this was in fact a race against time to meet key deadlines in the perpetual easement agreement signed with CA the previous December.</p>
<h3 id="deadlines-for-the-inner-arbor-trust">Deadlines for the Inner Arbor Trust</h3>
<p>The first deadline met was actually the one that was furthest in the future, namely the achievement of 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status. The easement agreement required this to be done by June 30, 2015, but it was actually accomplished on January 31, 2014, just over a month after the signing of the agreement. This was the first step in enabling the Inner Arbor Trust to more actively raise funds from donors for whom the tax deductibility of donations was important. (Under Maryland law the Trust could not actively solicit donations until it was certified by the state. This did not occur until October 22 later that year.)</p>
<p>However the easement agreement with the Columbia Association also required the Inner Arbor Trust to submit a Site Development Plan for the “Phase 1 easement area” (the northern section of Symphony Woods) by April 30, 2014, and to obtain county approval for that plan by November 30 of the same year. If it failed to meet one of these deadlines then the Trust would have to go back to CA to obtain an extension. If it could not obtain an extension then the Trust would risk being deemed in violation of the easement agreement.</p>
<h3 id="review-by-the-design-advisory-panel">Review by the Design Advisory Panel</h3>
<p>The Inner Arbor Trust started the formal planning process on February 4, 2014 when it submitted a complete Inner Arbor design to the county for consideration by the Howard County Design Advisory Panel.<sup id="fnref:6"><a href="#fn:6" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">6</a></sup>  This design formalized the park design presented the previous December and addressed the recommendations made by the Planning Board in its approval of the Final Development Plan previously submitted by the Columbia Association (FDP-DC-MSW-1).</p>
<p>The design as submitted contained two relatively minor revisions to the plan presented in December. The first was the addition of the Merriground, a play area for children. Such a play area was originally envisioned in the Final Development Plan, and in the first Inner Arbor plan was in the form of a “play maze” located across Little Patuxent Parkway relatively close to the entrance drive to The Mall in Columbia. The Merriground replaced this concept with a more “sculptural” set of features located further to the east of the northern section of Symphony Woods, in the location of the “iconic sculpture” originally envisioned by the Inner Arbor concept plan.</p>
<p>The other new feature was the Merriweather Horns, a set of sound sculptures designed by local artist William Cochran for the four proposed park entrances and along the park’s pathways. The Merriweather Horns replaced the Word Art and Letter Garden features in the plan presented in December, and were proposed as the public art component of the park as envisioned in the Final Developmemt Plan.</p>
<p>On February 26 Michael McCall of the Inner Arbor Trust and various members of the design team took the Howard County Design Advisory Panel through a 236-slide presentation covering all aspects of the park and the proposed park features. The presentation went very well: The Design Advisory Panel voted unanimously in favor of the plan, raising only a relatively minor concern about the width of some of the pathways, and individual panel members were enthusiastic in their praise of the plan.</p>
<h3 id="opposition-on-the-ca-board">Opposition on the CA board</h3>
<p>Meanwhile, as the Inner Arbor Trust prepared for the next step in the planning process opponents of the Inner Arbor plan stepped up their activities. During the previous year the changed composition of the Columbia Association Board of Directors had had relatively little effect on its relations with the Inner Arbor Trust. (The CA board had limited itself mainly to consideration of the easement negotiated with the Inner Arbor Trust, and a revision of the CA conflict of interest policy to clarify that it did not preclude CA board members from serving on the board of the Inner Arbor Trust.)</p>
<p>That period of relative quiet ended in the spring of 2014. The first issue to gain traction related to the name of the park: In its submissions to the county planning process the Inner Arbor Trust used the new name “Merriweather Park” (instead of the previous “Symphony Woods Park”) to emphasize the integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion and leverage public recognition of the “Merriweather̦” name.</p>
<p>Various members of the Columbia Association Board of Directors objected to the Inner Arbor Trust dropping the use of “Symphony Woods,” and on March 13 the CA board voted unanimously to formally request of the Inner Arbor Trust that the name “Symphony Woods” be retained. Later that spring the Inner Arbor Trust attempted to address this controversy by renaming the project “Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods” (similar to the strategy the Baltimore Orioles followed in naming their new stadium “Orioles Park at Camden Yards”).</p>
<p>More serious in its implications for the Inner Arbor project was the April 26 election of the Columbia Association Board of Directors.  As they were in 2013, opponents of the Inner Arbor plan were successful in electing new CA board members in another relatively low turnout election.<sup id="fnref:7"><a href="#fn:7" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">7</a></sup>  Plan opponents Jeanne Ketley and Alan Klein won in contested elections against incumbent board member Suzanne Waller and new candidate Bob Fontaine (both plan supporters). Plan opponent Alex Hekimian announced his intent not to run just prior to the filing deadline and was replaced by Reg Avery, who was allegedly recruited by Hekimian and ran unopposed.</p>
<p>Although he was a supporter of the Inner Arbor plan, re-elected incumbent Gregg Schwind, one of the Columbia Association’s representatives on the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors, expressed concern about public reception of the plan and indicated his willingness to consider “reworking” it. Finally, just prior to the election the CA board finally replaced Ed Coleman (defeated the previous year in the CA board election) as one of the CA representatives on the Trust board, in a 6-3 vote selecting Nancy McCord (who was relatively neutral in her public statements on the Inner Arbor plan) over Inner Arbor supporter Michael Cornell.</p>
<h3 id="meeting-the-sdp-deadline">Meeting the SDP deadline</h3>
<p>In the midst of all this controversy the Inner Arbor Trust met a second key deadline, as it submitted a 83-sheet Site Development Plan (SDP-14-073) to the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning on April 28, only two days before the April 30 deadline set by the easement agreement with the Columbia Association.</p>
<h3 id="more-howard-county-funding-for-the-inner-arbor-project">More Howard County funding for the Inner Arbor project</h3>
<p>In further good news for the Inner Arbor Trust, Howard County continued its financial support of the Inner Arbor project, with the County Council on May 21 appropriating an additional $1.5 million for Chrysalis construction and related activities in the county’s FY15 budget (Council Bill 24-2014), as requested by County Executive Ken Ulman. (The $1.5 million was in the form of a challenge grant requiring the Trust to provide matching funds, although at the time the Trust was not yet authorized to solicit donations.)</p>
<h3 id="the-ca-boards-endorsement-of-the-inner-arbor-plan">The CA board’s endorsement of the Inner Arbor plan</h3>
<p>However opposition to the Inner Arbor project from some Columbia Association board members continued. The primary strategy by which Inner Arbor opponents pursued their goal was a claim that the Trust had violated the terms of the previously-negotiated easement agreement for Symphony Woods by making “material changes” to the Inner Arbor concept plan.<sup id="fnref:8"><a href="#fn:8" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">8</a></sup>  After discussing the easement issue in public meetings on May 27 and 28, in its June 12 meeting the Columbia Association Board of Directors narrowly approved by a 5&ndash;4 vote a last-minute agenda change to formally consider whether an easement violation had occurred. However the actual motion to hold the Inner Arbor Trust in violation failed on a 3&ndash;7 vote, with only Reg Avery, Alan Klein, and Russ Swatek voting in favor.</p>
<p>One question raised in connection with the easement controversy was whether or not the Columbia Association needed to, or at least should, formally approve the Inner Arbor plan in its current form (i.e., beyond the concept plan referenced in the easement agreement). At the July 10 CA board meeting the board considered this question, with Michael McCall of the Inner Arbor Trust present to answer questions posed by the CA board. After discussion the CA board voted 6&ndash;4 to endorse the Inner Arbor plan as submitted in the Site Development Plan, with Nancy McCord joining previous Inner Arbor supporters Michael Cornell, Brian Dunn, Tom O’Connor, Andy Stack, and Gregg Schwind in the majority, and Reg Avery, Jeanne Ketley, Alan Klein, and Russ Swatek on the losing side of the vote.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the Columbia Association had completed its original commitment to fund the Inner Arbor Trust: CA paid the Trust an additional $510,000 in the spring of 2014, for a total of $1,410,000 up to that point. The final $190,000 came from what was left of the $250,000 grant that the state of Maryland had made to CA for the original Symphony Woods Park project. ($60,000 of that money had already spent on design work for that project.)  On June 18 the state approved CA reassigning the remaining $190,000 to the Inner Arbor Trust.</p>
<p>After the July 10 endorsement of Inner Arbor project by the Columbia Association Board of Directors the CA board transitioned into a role of providing oversight of the Inner Arbor Trust, for example through joint board meetings with the Trust on October 8 and subsequent dates.  CA did not commit any further funding to the Inner Arbor Trust once the original $1.6 million commitment was satisfied.<sup id="fnref:9"><a href="#fn:9" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">9</a></sup></p>
<h3 id="review-by-the-planning-board">Review by the Planning Board</h3>
<p>Instead the focus shifted again to the Howard County planning process, as the Inner Arbor Trust went before the Planning Board<sup id="fnref:10"><a href="#fn:10" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">10</a></sup> in November 2014 to request approval of SDP-14-073, the Site Development Plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, with the clock ticking toward the November 30 deadline specified in the easement agreement with the Columbia Association.</p>
<p>The Planning Board first held a meeting to consider the Site Development Plan on November 6 but held off making a decision that night.  Partly this was to allow more time for the many people who wanted to testify for and against the plan.  In the end over forty people spoke about the plan, with opponents outnumbered 2&ndash;1 by supporters, who included new Columbia Association President and CEO Milton Matthews (who had replaced Phil Nelson in June) and Howard County Council Chair Mary Kay Sigaty (who referred to the plan as “an exceptional design” and urged the Planning Board to “vote it with enthusiasm”).  Many others submitted written testimony, with County Council members Calvin Ball, Greg Fox, and Jen Terrasa writing in support of the plan along with Council member-elect Jon Weinstein.</p>
<p>The Planning Board also held up its deliberations to address concerns raised by the Howard County Citizens Association about allowing adequate time after publication of the Department of Planning and Zoning Technical Staff Report on SDP-14-073.  Final consideration was postponed to two weeks later, for the last meeting of the Planning Board in November.</p>
<p>At the November 20 meeting, only ten days before the easement agreement’s deadline, the Planning Board rendered its decision, voting unanimously to approve the Site Development Plan.  As requested by the Inner Arbor Trust the Planning Board’s decision encompassed not only the first two phases of park development, namely constructing the Chrysalis amphitheater and a pathway system, but the remaining five phases as well, including all other park features proposed in the revised Inner Arbor plan for the northern part of Symphony Woods.  Phases 1 and 2 were approved without further conditions, while phases 3&ndash;7 were approved subject to further review and approval of final design details by the Department of Planning and Zoning and the Planning Board prior to beginning construction.</p>
<p>Speaking about his own decision, Planning Board Chair Josh Tzuker thanked Inner Arbor opponents Cy Paumier, Barbara Russell, and others for their roles in the creation of the community of Columbia&mdash;“probably the second most influential thing in my life [after my parents]”&mdash;but noted that “We’re on a precipice.  . . .  It’s time for something new and fresh.” In comparing Columbia to other Washington-Baltimore suburban communities “competing to create a cosmopolitan cultural center,” Tzuker noted that “We have Merriweather&mdash;that’s what sets us apart. . . .  Merriweather is going to be this cultural touchstone that I think will bring people to Columbia.” He concluded by stating that the Site Development Plan submitted by the Inner Arbor Trust met the Planning Board’s criteria for Merriweather-Symphony Woods development, and that the board set the criteria the way it did because it wanted to promote a “holistic” vision of downtown Columbia&mdash;“the vision we all wanted to see.”</p>
<p>The county’s approval of the Site Development Plan meant that the Inner Arbor Trust had met all three of the key deadlines in the easement agreement with the Columbia Association.  The Trust thus ended 2014 free to move forward with the project of developing Symphony Woods according to the Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<h2 id="2015-building">2015: Building</h2>
<p>With the Howard County Planning Board having approved the Site Development Plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, in 2015 the Inner Arbor Trust began the work of realizing that plan, both in terms of building the actual foundation for the Chrysalis amphitheater and also in terms of strengthening the organizational foundation for the Trust moving forward. A great deal of that work involved solidifying the Inner Arbor Trust’s relationships with the other entities involved in Merriweather-Symphony Woods development, in pursuit of tighter integration between the Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion properties.</p>
<h3 id="the-ima-agreement">The I.M.A. agreement</h3>
<p>On March 6, 2015, the Inner Arbor Trust entered into a long-term agreement with It’s My Amphitheater, Inc., the operators of Merriweather Post Pavilion. This agreement provided for an ongoing stream of payments from I.M.A. to the Trust for the use of Symphony Woods for Merriweather Post Pavilion events, amounting to a total of $1.7 million in Trust revenue for the first ten years of the agreement. (This $1.7 million was counted by Howard County as satisfying the matching requirement associated with the $1.5 million grant in 2014.)  The agreement also provided for the use of public areas of the Merriweather Post Pavilion by park visitors during times when no events were being held there, in line with the theme of “operational elasticity” promoted by Michael McCall in his original Inner Arbor presentations.</p>
<p>On April 15 the Inner Arbor Trust Board of Directors assumed its present form as Dave Sciamarelli was elected to replace Paul Monteiro, who had in turn succeeded original board member Beverly White-Seals. The next-newest board member, Karen Newell, had previously been elected on August 7, 2014, to replace Deborah Ellinghaus. This left Gregg Schwind and Gill Wylie as the longest-serving Inner Arbor Trust board members, both having been on the board since the first board meeting on May 10, 2013.</p>
<p>Meanwhile on April 25 the Columbia Association again held an election for its Board of Directors. While still present, the controversies over the Inner Arbor plan were more muted in this election than in prior ones. Inner Arbor opponent Dick Boulton replaced supporter Tom O’Connor, Inner Arbor supporter Ed Coleman (running for an open seat) was defeated by Janet Evans, and Dr. Chao Wu replaced Inner Arbor supporter Michael Cornell, who did not run again. On May 14 the CA board selected Dick Boulton to replace Nancy McCord as one of CA’s representatives on the Inner Arbor Trust, with Gregg Schwind again selected for that role as well.</p>
<h3 id="continuation-of-howard-county-funding">Continuation of Howard County funding</h3>
<p>In May Howard County continued its financial support of the Inner Arbor Trust, as County Executive Alan Kittleman proposed, and the Howard County Council approved, $1.395 million of additional funding for the Trust as part of the FY16 budget. (The relevant legislation, Council Bill 23-2015, was introduced May 4, approved May 22, and signed into law June 1.)  With this additional funding the county increased its support of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods and the Chrysalis amphitheater to a total of $6.395 million, almost four times the funding contributed by the Columbia Association. (The relevant grant agreement was signed later that year on September 18, the third consecutive agreement between Howard County and the Inner Arbor Trust.)</p>
<h3 id="the-howard-hughes-agreements">The Howard Hughes agreements</h3>
<p>On May 27, 2015, the Inner Arbor Trust continued its activities relating to integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion by entering into a reciprocal easement agreement with Howard Hughes Corporation subsidiaries Merriweather Post Business Trust and Howard Research and Development. This agreement provided for the Trust and Howard Hughes to coordinate activities relating to development of land and facilities intended for joint use between Merriweather Post Pavilion and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, as envisioned by the downtown Columbia plan and the design guidelines for the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood.</p>
<p>(This agreement was made possible only because the Trust already had an easement from the Columbia Association for the land adjacent to Merriweather Post Pavilion on which the joint uses would occur. That adjacent acreage had been included in the Phase 1 easement area in the Trust’s previous easement agreement with CA.)</p>
<p>The next day, May 28, the Inner Arbor Trust appointed Nina Basu as its first General Counsel&mdash;a reflection of the increasing number of legal agreements the Trust was entering into and the increased amount of legal activity associated with the upcoming park construction and related activities. The Trust also appointed a new Treasurer, Kirsten Coombs. (Coombs replaced previous Treasurer Noreen Qureshi, who in turn had replaced Rafia Siddiqui, the Trust’s original Treasurer.)</p>
<p>On September 1 the Inner Arbor Trust entered into a trademark license agreement with Howard Hughes Corporation subsidiary Merriweather Post Business Trust. This agreement allowed the Trust the perpetual royalty-free use of the word mark “Merriweather” in connection with the naming and marketing of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. The Trust could thus leverage not only the existing broad public recognition of the Merriweather name, but also future marketing efforts by Howard Hughes in support of its own development activities in what it had taken to calling the “Merriweather District.”</p>
<h3 id="further-integration-with-merriweather-post-pavilion">Further integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion</h3>
<p>On September 3, 2015, the Howard County Planning Board unanimously approved a new Final Development Plan, FDP-DC-MSW-1A, a revision of the Final Development Plan FDP-DC-MSW-1 originally submitted by the Columbia Association for Symphony Woods Park. While FDP-DC-MSW-1 covered only a 16-acre portion of Symphony Woods (the “public park” envisioned in the Inner Arbor concept plan), FDP-DC-MSW-1A covered a total of 35 acres including the entire Merriweather Post Pavilion property as well as additional portions of Symphony Woods comprising the “performance park” of the Inner Arbor concept plan. (The concept plan’s “curated park” in southern Symphony Woods&mdash;the proposed location for a sculpture garden&mdash;was not addressed by FDP-DC-MSW-1A.)</p>
<p>Specific changes in FDP-DC-MSW-1A included an increase in the height limit for the Merriweather Post Pavilion stagehouse, provision of ADA-compliant parking spaces, and a shared-use restroom in Symphony Woods. However FDP-DC-MSW-1A was equally significant for marking a new level of formal coordination in Merriweather-Symphony Woods planning among the various parties responsible for the properties, and even tighter integration between Merriweather Post Pavilion renovation projects and the development of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. (FDP-DC-MSW-1A was followed up in December by SDP-16-018, a Site Development Plan for renovations to both properties.)  Finally, FDP-DC-MSW-1A replaced the original CA-submitted Final Development Plan (FDP-DC-MSW-1) and eliminated any lingering consistencies between that plan and the subsequent Site Development Plan SDP-14-073 approved by the Planning Board.</p>
<p>Together these and other relationships among the various organizations involved in downtown Columbia development formed the basis for a new identity for downtown, with Merriweather Post Pavilion at the center, Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods surrounding it, and both within a newly-named Merriweather District combining the Merriweather-Symphony Woods and Crescent neighborhoods&mdash;all within the context of the broader Columbia planned community.</p>
<h3 id="breaking-ground-on-the-chrysalis">Breaking ground on the Chrysalis</h3>
<p>This heightened level of cooperation was celebrated on September 12, 2015, at the groundbreaking ceremony for the Chrysalis amphitheater, which featured representation from all the major players involved in the creation of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, including the Inner Arbor Trust, the Columbia Association, Howard County Executive Alan Kittleman and members of the Howard County Council, the Howard Hughes Corporation, I.M.A., the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission, and the state of Maryland.</p>
<p>Also represented was the Columbia Festival of the Arts, whose executive director Todd Olson publicly announced the festival’s intent to host future performances at the Chrysalis amphitheater when completed&mdash;moving from the previous venue at the lakefront, Columbia’s traditional downtown, to the heart of Columbia’s future downtown. Finally, the ceremony featured participation by the Howard County Public School System, in the form of a student team from Oakland Mills High School that used the Minecraft world-building software to create a virtual model of the Chrysalis amphitheater and other planned features in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<h3 id="the-beginning-of-chrysalis-construction">The beginning of Chrysalis construction</h3>
<p>The months after the groundbreaking saw the plans for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods started to be realized, as Whiting-Turner (the construction contractor selected by the Inner Arbor Trust) began the work of preparing the Chrysalis site. Appropriately enough, given the past controversies over tree preservation in Symphony Woods, Whiting-Turner’s first task was to carefully prune tree roots in areas to be excavated and place mats to protect critical root zones. Subsequent weeks saw the laying of water lines, construction of an underground cistern to control storm water runoff, and the beginnings of the foundation for the Chrysalis amphitheater.</p>
<p>As 2015 ended the visible evidence of the Chrysalis amphitheater’s presence was still below ground. 2016 will see the Chrysalis rise above the surface of Symphony Woods. Future articles in this series will describe the people and organizations bringing the Chrysalis to life and how their work will contribute to the final structure and the park surrounding it.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-organizational-relationships.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-organizational-relationships-embed.png"
         alt="Organizational relationships in Merriweather development"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Diagram of the legal agreements and other relationships among the various organizations involved in development of Merriweather Post Pavilion, Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, and the overall Merriweather District (combining the Merriweather-Symphony Woods and Crescent neighborhoods). Items in red were not finalized as of the end of 2015; in particular the Inner Arbor Trust had received building permits for grading the Chrysalis site and for constructing its foundation, but had not yet received a third permit for the Chrysalis structure itself. Click for a higher-resolution version. Image © 2015 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>Newspaper articles from the <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/advancedsearch.html"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> online archives</a> for <a href="https://pinboard.in/u:civilityandtruth/t:2013+baltimoresun">2013</a>, <a href="https://pinboard.in/u:civilityandtruth/t:2014+baltimoresun">2014</a>, and <a href="https://pinboard.in/u:civilityandtruth/t:2015+baltimoresun">2015</a>, including the following:
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-symphony-woods-20130214-story.html">CA board approves concept plan for Symphony Woods</a>” (February 15, 2013)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-1205-20131201-story.html">Details of Symphony Woods arts park revealed</a>” (December 1, 2013)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-design-panel-20140226-story.html">Inner Arbor plans ‘wow’ Howard design panel</a>” (February 27, 2014)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-inner-arbor-endorsement-story.html">CA board endorses plans for Symphony Woods</a>” (July 11, 2014)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-1127-2-20141120-story.html">Howard Planning Board gives green light to Inner Arbor</a>” (November 20, 2014)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-chrysalis-groundbreaking-0917-20150913-story.html">Downtown Columbia celebrates Chrysalis groundbreaking in Symphony Woods</a>” (September 14, 2015)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Newspaper articles from the <a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/"><em>Columbia Flier</em> online archives</a></li>
<li>Various <a href="http://inartrust.org/">Inner Arbor Trust</a> documents, including the following:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://inartrust.org/s/CA-IAT-Easement.pdf">IAT-CA easement (amended to include Lot 9B)</a> [PDF] (March 14, 2014)</li>
<li><a href="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/5383a47ee4b0c9ba92a73353/1401136254309/Letter+on+the+Progress+and+History+of+the+Inner+Arbor+Trust+140527.pdf">Letter to Hickory Ridge Village Manager Jessamine Duvall</a> [PDF] (May 27, 2014) (summarizes history of the Inner Arbor Trust up to that time)</li>
<li><a href="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/56479ff9e4b007c50ae4b992/1447534585765/A+Brief+History+of+the+Trust+October+2015+v.3.pdf">A Brief History of the Inner Arbor Trust</a> [PDF] (October 2015)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/">Howard County</a> planning and legislative documents:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461824"><em>Downtown Columbia Plan: A General Plan Amendment</em></a> [PDF] (February 1, 2010)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461253&amp;libID=6442461246">Land Development Review Process for Downtown Columbia Revitalization</a> [PDF] (November 2010) (Outlines the 16-step county planning and zoning process applicable to the Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442467410&amp;libID=6442467401">Howard County Planning Board Decision and Order, Case No. PB 394</a> [PDF] (September 6, 2012) (Planning Board recommendations for changes to Symphony Woods Park plan, FDP-DC-MSW-1)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442476891&amp;libID=6442476883">DPZ Technical Staff Report on SDP-14-073</a> [PDF] (October 30, 2014)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442477197&amp;libID=6442477189">Planning Board decision on SDP-14-073</a> [PDF] (November 20, 2014) (Approval of Site Development Plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442480434&amp;libID=6442480427">DPZ Technical Staff Report on FDP-MSW-1A</a> [PDF] (August 20, 2015)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442481606&amp;libID=6442481599">DPZ Technical Staff Report on SDP-16-018</a> [PDF] (December 3, 2015)</li>
<li><a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=202">Council Bill 25-2013</a> (May 2013) ($3.5 million appropriation for Chrysalis design and construction)</li>
<li><a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=800">Council Bill 24-2014</a> (May 2014) ($1.5 million appropriation for the Inner Arbor Trust along with a requirement for the Trust to provide matching funds)</li>
<li><a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=1390">Council Bill 23-2015</a> (May 2015) ($1.395 million appropriation for the Inner Arbor Trust)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various <a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/">Columbia Association</a> documents, including in particular the following with specific materials as noted:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymaryland.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=6442467301">FDP-DC-MSW-1</a>, “Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood Final Development Plan” [PDF] (the original Symphony Woods Park plan as submitted to Howard County)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowDocumentPacket/?agendaID=400&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board agenda for August 23, 2012</a> [PDF] (Jan Clark memo re Howard Hughes Corporation plans and their impact on CA)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowPrimaryDocument/?agendaID=407&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board agenda for October 11, 2012</a> [PDF] (Phil Nelson memo of October 5, 2012)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowPrimaryDocument/?minutesID=345&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board minutes for October 11, 2012</a> [PDF] (Phil Nelson presentation and straw polls)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowPrimaryDocument/?minutesID=228&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board minutes for January 24, 2013</a> [PDF] (Michael McCall presentation on the Inner Arbor concept plan)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowPrimaryDocument/?agendaID=132&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board agenda for February 14, 2013</a> [PDF] (Phil Nelson memo of February 7, 2013, “Formation of a Trust for Symphony Woods Development”)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52c456cee4b09b80f5613d1c/1388598990471/3.+Formation_of_a_Trust_for_Symphony_Woods_Development.pdf">Formation of a Trust for Symphony Woods Development</a>” [PDF] (Phil Nelson memo of February 13, 2013, updating the February 7 memo)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowPrimaryDocument/?minutesID=230&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board minutes for February 14, 2013</a> [PDF] (Approval of Inner Arbor concept plan, creation of independent 501(c)(3) organization, granting of easement)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowDocumentPacket/?minutesID=240&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board minutes and related material for April 25, 2013</a> [PDF] (Discussion of the need to maintain an “arms-length distance” between CA and the Inner Arbor Trust)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowPrimaryDocument/?minutesID=472&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board work session on May 28, 2014</a> [PDF] (Appearance by Michael McCall and Inner Arbor Trust board members to discuss the project and questions concerning it)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowPrimaryDocument/?minutesID=482&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board minutes for June 12, 2014</a> [PDF] (Vote on whether the Inner Arbor Trust had violated the easement on Symphony Woods)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowPrimaryDocument/?minutesID=489&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board minutes for July 10, 2014</a> [PDF] (Vote on CA endorsement of the Inner Arbor plan)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowDocumentPacket/?agendaID=792&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Board Operations Committee agenda for November 14, 2015</a> [PDF] (Sheri Faranoff memo discussing guidelines for CA board members serving on the Inner Arbor Trust board)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various local blogs and blog posts, including in particular:
<ul>
<li>HocoRising (Tom Coale)
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2013/01/symphony-woods.html">Symphony Woods</a>” (January 22, 2013)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2013/01/ca-board-recap-january-24-2013-board-of.html">CA Board Recap: January 24, 2013 Board of Directors Meeting</a>” (January 25, 2013)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Dr Chao Wu
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://chaowu2016.com/2015/10/07/background-on-ca-board-inner-arbor/">Background on CA and Inner Arbor Trust</a>” (October 7, 2015) (Re-post of an article “Background on CA Board &amp; Inner Arbor” by Andy Stack, dated September 15, 2015)</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The Howard County Planning Board was established to “make recommendations to the County Council and the Zoning Board on all matters relating to: The Planning and Zoning of the County, the adoption and amendment of regulations regarding the Planning and Zoning of the County, and amendments to the zoning map or zoning regulations.” (See Sec. 16.900 of the Howard County Code of Ordinances.)  As of September 2012 the members of the Planning Board were Jacqueline Easley, Dave Grabowski, Bill Santos, Josh Tzuker, and Paul Yelder.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>For example, an August 17, 2012, memo from Columbia Association staff member Jan Clark to the CA board noted of the plan proposed by Howard Hughes that “This concept (a.k.a., the ‘McCall Plan’) has the support of most community leaders.”&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The term “Trust” referenced in Nelson’s recommendations, and later in the name “Inner Arbor Trust,” was used in the same sense as with respect to organizations like the <a href="http://www.trustarts.org">Pittsburgh Cultural Trust</a>, the <a href="https://www.hudsonriverpark.org/about-us/hrpt">Hudson River Park Trust</a>, and the <a href="http://nationalmall.org">Trust for the National Mall</a>: to denote a nonprofit organization with 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status chartered to develop, enhance, and/or maintain properties held by others.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>For various reasons only a subset of Columbia residents are eligible to vote in CA elections, and only a small subset of those bother to do so. For example, in the 2013 elections Nancy McCord defeated Regina Clay by a margin of 12 votes with a total turnout of 362 people.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>The Columbia Association adopted a similar strategy in setting up an independent nonprofit organization, Columbia 50th Birthday Celebration, Inc., to coordinate activities relating to the 50th anniversary of the founding of Columbia.&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:6">
<p>The Design Advisory Panel was created by Howard County in 2008 to (among other things) “Provide expert advice for Downtown Columbia Revitalization to . . . the Planning Board regarding the consistency of the site development plans submitted for approval in the Downtown Columbia Revitalization process to the neighborhood design guidelines.”  (See Sec. 16.1500 of the Howard County Code of Ordinances.)  Its members are required to be “professional[s] in architecture, civil engineering, landscape architecture, urban planning, or a related field.” As of February 2014 the members of the Design Advisory Panel were Hank Alinger, Phyllis Cook, Mohammad Saleem, Phil Engelke, Rob Hollis, Don Taylor, and Peggy White.  Of these all but Engelke and Saleem were present at the meeting at which the Merriweather Park SDP was reviewed and unanimously endorsed.&#160;<a href="#fnref:6" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:7">
<p>In the closest of the 2014 elections (in which Alan Klein defeated Bob Fontaine) the outcome was decided by a margin of 17 votes with a total turnout of 375 people.&#160;<a href="#fnref:7" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:8">
<p>To be more specific, the claim that “material changes” were made rested primarily on the distinction between the original Inner Arbor concept plan, included as an attachment to the easement agreement, and the Site Development Plan submitted to Howard County, which reflected the elaboration of the concept plan in accordance with the Final Development Plan previously submitted by CA.&#160;<a href="#fnref:8" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:9">
<p>The Columbia Association’s decision to no longer fund the Inner Arbor project also resulted in CA having a decreased ability to oversee the project or impose its own conditions on the project tied to CA funding.  For example, the original grant agreement between CA and the Trust required the Trust to provide quarterly financial reports to CA; that obligation went away once the grant agreement ended.&#160;<a href="#fnref:9" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:10">
<p>As of November 2014 the members of the Planning Board were Jacqueline Easley, Phil Engelke, Erica Roberts, Bill Santos, and Josh Tzuker.&#160;<a href="#fnref:10" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Vision and strategy</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/11/01/creating-the-chrysalis-vision-and-strategy/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 01 Nov 2015 18:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/11/01/creating-the-chrysalis-vision-and-strategy/</guid>
      <description>I explore the vision for a new park in Symphony Woods and the strategy to implement it</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-at-symphony-woods-site-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-at-symphony-woods-site-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Site plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Site plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, as presented to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel on February 26, 2014. The Chrysalis amphitheater is in the lower right. Click for a higher-resolution version.  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I explore the vision for a new park in Symphony Woods and the strategy to implement it.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>The <a href="/2015/10/25/creating-the-chrysalis-symphony-woods/">previous article</a> in this series recounted the history of Symphony Woods up to the fall of 2012. At that time the Columbia Association Board of Directors, at the suggestion of CA staff, decided to re-evaluate its plans for creating a park in Symphony Woods. That process ultimately led to CA’s adopting a new approach, dubbed the Inner Arbor plan, and creating a new organization, the Inner Arbor Trust, to implement that plan. This article describes the vision motivating the plan and the strategy to implement that vision as it was created and refined by Michael McCall, now President and CEO of the Inner Arbor Trust.</p>
<h2 id="the-roots-of-the-inner-arbor-plan">The roots of the Inner Arbor plan</h2>
<p>Meetings of the Columbia Association Board of Directors feature a “Resident Speak Out” period during which Columbia residents and other users of CA services can briefly address the CA board on topics relevant to the Columbia Association. On September 22, 2011, one of the people speaking during the board meeting was Columbia resident Michael McCall.</p>
<p>McCall spoke of reading newspaper articles about the Design Advisory Panel meeting on the Symphony Woods Park Final Development Plan, and noted his agreement with the panel members’ concerns: “There’s not a vision for the whole park&mdash;not just the front that faces Little Patuxent [Parkway], but the entire ‘doughnut’, . . . the whole thing.” He went on to note, “We have to start with the end in mind: What do we want Symphony Woods to be twenty years from now? What is its strategic purpose?  What is the guest experience? What is it that we want, what is it we aspire to?”</p>
<p>Columbia Association board member Suzanne Waller, alluding to the draft Symphony Woods Park vision statement that the board was considering (and would adopt at the next board meeting), responded that “in fact we do have a vision”. McCall replied, “That’s wonderful. However [in] the plans that I could download . . . and an RFP for a fountain, I did not see or hear or read or feel a vision.  . . .  A fountain is a tactic, and I’m looking for the strategy.”</p>
<p>Although it went mostly unremarked at the time, McCall’s appearance at the Columbia Association Board of Directors meeting that night marked the beginning of a major shift on the part of the CA board, a shift that ultimately resulted in CA’s adoption of the Inner Arbor plan, the creation of the Inner Arbor Trust, and the beginnings of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>How did Michael McCall come to be involved with Symphony Woods? Originally from Rochester, Minnesota, in 1982 McCall moved to Columbia to join the Enterprise Development Company, the for-profit arm of the Enterprise Foundation (now Enterprise Community Partners), a non-profit organization created by Jim Rouse and his wife Patty in 1981 to help develop affordable housing in the US. After working on several Enterprise Development projects, including a “stealth” joint venture with the Walt Disney Company, in 1992 McCall started Strategic Leisure, Inc., a consulting firm working on development projects in the US and overseas.</p>
<p>Although he had lived in Columbia for thirty years, McCall had been relatively uninvolved in Columbia and Columbia Association affairs. As he noted in his Resident Speak Out comments, “I’ve never focused on where I live, because when you’re dealing with the Corps of Engineers in Tennessee [for a project in Pigeon Forge] you just kind of want to relax when you’re home.” Thus the perception of McCall by some that he was an outsider as far as Columbia downtown planning was concerned, not a true heir to the vision that Jim Rouse had for the community.</p>
<p>However a more accurate way to put it is that McCall, with his catchy slogans and talk of the “guest experience,” simply represented another aspect of Jim Rouse’s legacy&mdash;not just Rouse the earnest liberal reformer concerned with diversity and social justice, but also Rouse the enthusiastic developer who once claimed that “the greatest piece of urban design in the United States today is Disneyland.”</p>
<p>Prompted by the Design Advisory Panel’s verdict on the existing plan for Symphony Woods, McCall decided to take a look at the problem himself. After two decades of unsuccessful attempts to enhance Symphony Woods and almost a decade of community in-fighting over downtown Columbia development, McCall brought a different but still Rouse-like perspective on the problem, and circumstances were such that others were willing to consider that perspective and enter into conversations with him about the future of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>The result of those conversations was a concept plan for what McCall called the “Inner Arbor” project&mdash;a punning name by which he sought to emphasize that the development of Merriweather-Symphony Woods, together with the simultaneous development of the Crescent property, could have as positive an impact on downtown Columbia as the Inner Harbor festival marketplace and associated developments had on downtown Baltimore.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  The Inner Arbor plan embodied both a vision and (over time) an increasingly more detailed strategy for enhancing Symphony Woods in the context of the overall Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighorhood.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/tivoli-gardens-millenium-park-comparison.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/tivoli-gardens-millenium-park-comparison-embed.jpg"
         alt="Tivoli Gardens and Millennium Park compared to the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A comparison of the Tivoli Garden and Millennium Park sites (outlined in yellow) to the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood (outlined in red), as presented to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel. Click for a higher-resolution version.  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="a-vision-in-words-and-pictures">A vision in words and pictures</h2>
<p>Contrasting a vision statement with a mission statement, local blogger James Howard noted, “The mission statement tells what we are doing. The vision statement tells why we are doing it. It [is] finishing the sentence that begins, ‘We imagine a world where . . .’”</p>
<p>The canonical vision for Merriweather-Symphony Woods is from the Downtown Columbia Plan. That vision can be re-expressed in Howard’s phrasing as follows: “We imagine a world where Merriweather-Symphony Woods is a new kind of cultural park, where the landscape becomes a setting for arts, cultural and civic uses.”</p>
<p>This is brief and to the point&mdash;something recommended for vision statements&mdash;and also reflects the community consensus on the future of the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood that was forged through the Howard County planning and legislative processes. It is the vision that informed the initial Inner Arbor concept plan presented by Michael McCall, and continues to inform the work of the Inner Arbor Trust to create Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>However this vision statement in and of itself is not as emotionally resonant as it might be. It works well in the context of a planning document, but less well as a vision to excite people. In contrast to Antoine de Saint-Exupéry’s advice on building a ship, it is more about collecting wood and assigning tasks and less about getting people to “long for the endless immensity of the sea.”</p>
<p>The Inner Arbor concept plan remedied this lack not by trying to rewrite the “official” Merriweather-Symphony Woods vision statement, but rather by using images and analogies to supplement it and make it more vivid. In particular, one key question addressed in the concept plan presentation is the following: If you wanted to create a “new kind of cultural park” for “arts, cultural, and civic uses,” and you had 45 acres of land to work with (the combined area of Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion), what kind of park could you create?</p>
<p>The answer given by the concept plan presentation was that you could create something like Tivoli Gardens in Copenhagen (20 acres), or Millennium Park in Chicago (25 acres)&mdash;and the presentation then went on to elaborate on that answer by showing several pictures of what Tivoli Gardens and Millienium Park actually look like to visitors. This made the Merriweather-Symphony Woods vision more visceral and appealing: If the pictures were translated into words then those words might be, “We imagine a world where Merriweather-Symphony Woods is to Columbia what Tivoli Gardens is to Copenhagen, or Millennium Park to Chicago.”</p>
<p>Re-expressing the Merriweather-Symphony Woods vision in these terms has several implications for what the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood might be, indeed what it <em>must</em> be in order for the vision to be realized:</p>
<p>The world we imagine in the vision for Merriweather-Symphony Woods is one where</p>
<p>. . . Merriweather-Symphony Woods is loved by Columbia and Howard
County residents in the same way that Tivoli Gardens and Millennium Park are loved by residents of Copenhagen and Chicago&mdash;the sort of place you might go to meet your friends even if you don’t have definite plans, just because it’s a great place to be.</p>
<p>. . . Merriweather-Symphony Woods is known by people well outside
the area&mdash;the sort of place where if you’re in town and able to go there you take a selfie of yourself and your friends, because you want other people to know you’ve been there.</p>
<p>. . . Merriweather-Symphony Woods has something&ndash;whether one thing or a
combination of things&ndash;that can’t be found anywhere else.</p>
<p>Looking at the Merriweather-Symphony Woods vision statement in this alternative formulation also has implications for the strategy discussed in the next section:</p>
<p>First, realizing the Merriweather-Symphony Woods vision will be a long-term effort. For example, Tivoli Gardens has been the beneficiary of over 170 years of evolution. It shouldn’t take 170 years to fully realize the vision for Merriweather-Symphony Woods, but it certainly will take more than two or three years.</p>
<p>Second, realizing this vision will require an intensive design effort. Some people have looked at Symphony Woods simply as an exercise in preservation&mdash;that at the extreme it’s simply a matter of not cutting trees down or otherwise disturbing the woods. But the comparison to Tivoli Gardens and Millennium Park implies that preservation of trees, intelligent restoration of the landscape, and sensitively-designed park structures are all needed&mdash;Merriweather-Symphony Woods is too small a site, is in too built-up a setting, and supports too intensive a set of uses for a simple “hands off” strategy to work.</p>
<p>Finally, realizing the Merriweather-Symphony Woods vision requires looking outside Columbia to find the best and most appropriate design talents for the task at hand, wherever in the world they might be found.</p>
<p>Is this a realistic vision? The answer implied by the Inner Arbor concept plan presentation is yes, given a reasonable amount of time, money, and design talent. As Michael McCall noted in his Resident Speak Out comments, the key is to have the right strategy.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/inner-arbor-concerto-in-three-parks.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/inner-arbor-concerto-in-three-parks-embed.png"
         alt="Inner Arbor concept plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Inner Arbor concept plan, “concerto in three parks”. Click for a higher-resolution version.  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="a-strategy-for-the-whole-park">A strategy for the whole park</h2>
<p>The vision of a “new kind of cultural park” that could be the equivalent of Tivoli Gardens or Millennium Park in a Columbia context is a compelling one. What was needed next was a suitable long-term strategy for making that vision a reality. As Michael McCall wrote in a column for the magazine <em>Entertainment Management</em>, “Strategy, like winning, is not everything; it is the only thing that counts until it is right.”</p>
<p>In the case of Symphony Woods there was a vision, along with proposed tactics (pathways, a fountain, a café), but no clear strategy.  As McCall wrote in the same column concerning the “math of success,” “Lacking Strategy + Good Execution = Disappointment.” In the case of Symphony Woods the key to creating a good strategy was to not focus on just the section of Symphony Woods covered by the then-current Columbia Association plan, but rather to go up a level and consider the entire Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood&mdash;the “whole park,” as McCall put it in his Resident Speak Out remarks, the “whole thing.”</p>
<p>The strategy embodied in the Inner Arbor concept plan is to treat Merriweather-Symphony Woods as three parks in one, or a “concerto in three parks” in McCall’s phrase:</p>
<p>The northern section of Symphony Woods, the 16-acre area covered by the Columbia Association’s previously-submitted Final Development Plan, is to be the “public park”. This is in line with people’s traditional conception of Symphony Woods: It is the part of Symphony Woods most familiar to Columbia and Howard County residents (including as the site of the Wine in the Woods festival), the part previously threatened by the intensive development contemplated in the original GGP draft downtown plan, and the part that the Columbia Association was already focusing on prior to the creation of the Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<p>The combination of Merriweather Post Pavilion and a relatively open adjacent area in the eastern part of Symphony Woods is to be the “performance park”. This combined area forms a natural east-west axis south of the public park, with the Symphony Woods portion having been previously considered as the site for a new Columbia Association headquarters, and is potentially suitable for other “arts, cultural and civic uses.”</p>
<p>Finally, the southern portion of Symphony Woods, just north of the Crescent property, is to be the “curated park,” with a focus on public art. Due to poor public access that area has been even more neglected and unused than the northern section of Symphony Woods. However with the planned build-out of the Crescent property the southern section of Symphony Woods will assume more importance, and arguably will one day be as prominent a gateway into the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood as the northern section. It also has a small pond to provide a focal point for the area and a backdrop for art works.</p>
<p>The Inner Arbor concept plan also contains a number of suggested ways to realize the “concerto in three parks” strategy: In the performance park, an “arts village” hosting new indoor theatrical venues to replace the existing Toby’s Dinner Theatre facility. In the curated park, a sculpture garden with “organic art” to complement the natural landscape. In the public park, an “iconic sculpture” and a “treeline” boardwalk to connect to the performance park. And finally, a bridge to tie Merriweather Post Pavilion and the arts village to a parking structure and transit facility suggested for outside of Symphony Woods on the current Toby’s Dinner Theatre site.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/inner-arbor-merriweather-integration.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/inner-arbor-merriweather-integration-embed.png"
         alt="Inner Arbor plan for Merriweather boundary"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>“Operational elasticity” and “beyond the berm” strategy as embodied in the proposed boundary area between Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods in the Inner Arbor plan. Click for a higher-resolution version.  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="a-strategy-for-the-public-park">A strategy for the public park</h2>
<p>The original Inner Arbor concept plan did not suggest any structures for the section of Symphony Woods just north of Merriweather Post Pavilion and just south of Little Patuxent Parkway. That area was already the subject of Columbia Association planning efforts for Symphony Woods Park, and there was already a set of proposed park features submitted as part of the Final Development Plan previously approved by the Howard County Planning Board. However the Planning Board had called for key changes to the FDP, including in particular rerouting paths to avoid trees and pursuing a closer integration of the park with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>The next step in the evolution of the Inner Arbor plan was to focus on that northern section of Symphony Woods, the section containing the public park envisioned in the Inner Arbor concept plan. This made sense for several reasons:</p>
<p>First, this was the aspect of Symphony Woods development that was furthest along. The Howard County planning process for downtown Columbia requires a total of 16 steps: eight steps for a Final Development Plan, and a further eight steps for a Site Development Plan. As noted in the final slides of the public presentations of the Inner Arbor concept plan, development of the northern public park section of Symphony Woods was already at step 9, having completed FDP review, while development of the performance park and curated park in the eastern and southern sections was at step 1.</p>
<p>Thus the Symphony Woods easement agreement between the Columbia Association and the Inner Arbor Trust prioritized development of the public park over development of the performance park and curated park. (See the next article in the series for more information on this agreement.)</p>
<p>Second, given the concurrent planning for the renovation of Merriweather Post Pavilion, developing a plan for integration of the pavilion property with the northern section of Symphony Woods was a high priority.</p>
<p>Finally, development of the performance park and curated park was and is conditional on the pace of development of the Crescent property surrounding Symphony Woods to the south and east: Public use of the performance park and associated arts village envisioned in the Inner Arbor concept plan assumes implementation of new facilities for public parking outside of Symphony Woods, while public use of the curated park assumes conversion of the existing private Symphony Woods Road south of Symphony Woods into a public street. Both of these developments will take some time to come to fruition.</p>
<p>Given these factors, Michael McCall’s chosen next task was to create an improved strategy for the “public park” aspect of the Inner Arbor concept plan, building on the previously-approved Final Development Plan together with the associated recommendations by the Planning Board for meandering paths and integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>Achieving better integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion was seemingly the tougher challenge, especially given the traditional practice of enclosing Merriweather Post Pavilion with a fence and entirely closing Symphony Woods during Merriweather events. McCall’s refined strategy for the public park in northern Symphony Woods was built on two principles, “operational elasticity” and “beyond the berm”:<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>First, the Merriweather Post Pavilion property would be treated as an extension of the public park, and be opened to visitors year-round during times when the pavilion did not host ticketed events. In return access control for Merriweather Post Pavilion would be provided by a new boundary feature located in Symphony Woods proper, replacing the current fence at the property line on the north side of the pavilion site. The general public would then be allowed access to the portion of Symphony Woods north of this new boundary even during Merriweather Post Pavilion events.</p>
<p>These actions would open up a transition area on the east-west ridge line between the Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion properties, a transition area in which a variety of “arts, cultural and civic uses” could be accomodated. In particular, this area could be used for the “Fountain Plaza” envisioned by the downtown Columbia plan, only located on the pavilion site rather than in Symphony Woods.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>In comparison to integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion, incorporating the “meandering paths” recommendation into the strategy seemed relatively straightforward. At the highest level it mainly required abandoning the relatively rigid cruciform arrangements of paths specified in the Final Development Plan and moving to a curved pathway system that respected the existing trees and the topography in which they were situated.</p>
<p>However in practice this aspect of the public park required significant thought as well, in particular to address the “industrial engineering” aspects discussed by Michael McCall in his original Resident Speak Out comments: Would the pathway system adequately handle circulation for the largest events at Merriweather Post Pavilion, as well as events like Wine in the Woods? How would the pathway system function to draw people into the public park? What park features would be most effective in attracting visitors, and how would the pathways most effectively direct people to those features?</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/paumier-inner-arbor-overlay2.jpeg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/paumier-inner-arbor-overlay2-embed.jpeg"
         alt="Inner Arbor relocation of FDP features"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Key features of the Inner Arbor plan for the public park aspect of the Inner Arbor concept plan for Merriweather-Symphony Woods, showing relocation of those features from the locations in the Final Development Plan. Click for a higher-resolution version.  Image created by Frank Hecker based on Google Maps satellite imagery, sheet 3 of FDP-DC-MSW-1, “Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood Final Development Plan,” and slides 25-33 of the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Design Advisory Panel.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<h2 id="tactics-for-the-public-park">Tactics for the public park</h2>
<p>As it evolved the Inner Arbor plan for the public park reflected the answers to those questions, answers embodied in the various tactics by which the new park strategy was to be implemented. Michael McCall’s approach was to take the list of previously proposed “tactics,” i.e., the park features outlined in the approved Final Development Plan, and enlist each of them in the service of this new strategy.</p>
<p>As noted above, the fountain called out in the Final Development plan as being located in Symphony Woods was instead proposed to be relocated on the Merriweather Post Pavilion site as part of the transition area between the pavilion site and the Symphony Woods property.</p>
<p>A new feature not specifically called out in the Final Development Plan was the Caterpillar “green berm” stretching east to west just north of Merriweather Post Pavilion. The Caterpillar’s primary function is to provide access control from the northern section of Symphony Woods into the transition area bordering Merriweather Post Pavilion. It serves in place of a traditional fence, like the one presently separating Merriweather Post Pavilion from Symphony Woods, and makes for a much more visually attractive barrier&mdash;the “art of bounds,” as McCall put it.</p>
<p>The remaining features were relocated from their position in Symphony Woods as called out in the Final Development Plan to new positions elsewhere in Symphony Woods:</p>
<p>The children’s activity area, now named the Merriground, was originally proposed to be right next to the Merriweather VIP parking lot. It was moved to a more scenic location further north in the woods. The shared use café, the Butterfly in the Inner Arbor plan, was then moved to the activity area’s former location next to the Merriweather VIP parking lot, near the east entrance of Merriweather Post Pavilion, so that its shared use with Merriweather Post Pavilion would be more convenient.</p>
<p>Finally, the proposed shared use amphitheater, what is now to be the Chrysalis, was moved slightly to the east. This took it down a hill somewhat compared to the location in the FDP, providing more space for the audience and more separation from Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>The Final Development Plan also referenced public art in the park. That function is fulfilled in the Inner Arbor plan by the Merriweather Horns sound sculptures, which replaced other art features proposed in an earlier iteration of the Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<p>The Inner Arbor plan has thus evolved from the earliest concept plan to the latest site development plan for the northern section. The concept plan of late 2012 and early 2013 provided an overall framework for developing the whole of Symphony Woods as a component of the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood, the more detailed plan of late 2013 provided a framework for developing the public park component of Merriweather-Symphony Woods, and the revised plan of early 2014 locked down the detailed site design that now drives the development of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>The next article in this series will look at the processes and institutions by which and through which the vision and strategy discussed in this article are being realized in the current construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>Newspaper articles from the <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/advancedsearch.html"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> online archives</a>, including in particular the following:
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-michael-mccall-0314-20130313-story.html">McCall invokes Rouse in design for Symphony Woods Park</a>”</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Newspaper articles from the <a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/"><em>Columbia Flier</em> online archives</a></li>
<li>The <a href="http://strategicleisure.com/">Strategic Leisure web site</a>, including in particular the following article:
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/53ea8164e4b02f0226b7ac69/t/53f8e300e4b0ba6a4c5cc6b1/1408821323659/The+Strategic+Math+of+Success.pdf">The Strategic Math of Success</a>” [PDF]</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various <a href="http://inartrust.org/">Inner Arbor Trust</a> documents, including the following:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/78288327">Michael McCall’s presentation of the Inner Arbor concept plan
to Leadership Howard County</a> [video] (September 20, 2013)</li>
<li><a href="https://vimeo.com/96509003">Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Howard County Design
Advisory Panel</a> [video] (February 26, 2014)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/">Howard County</a> planning documents:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461824"><em>Downtown Columbia Plan: A General Plan Amendment</em></a> [PDF]
(February 1, 2010)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/uploadedFiles/Home/Boards_and_Commissions/Planning_and_Zoning/DAPsum%202011-07-13.pdf">Howard County Design Advisory Panel minutes, July 13, 2011</a> [PDF]</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442467410&amp;libID=6442467401">Howard County Planning Board Decision and Order, Case No. PB 394</a> [PDF] (September 6, 2012)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461253&amp;libID=6442461246">Land Development Review Process for Downtown Columbia
Revitalization</a> [PDF] (November 2010)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various <a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/">Columbia Association</a> documents, including in particular the following:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymaryland.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=6442467301">FDP-DC-MSW-1</a>, “Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods
Neighborhood Final Development Plan” [PDF]</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><a href="http://samlanddisney.blogspot.com/2010/03/moment-with-walt-disney.html">Jim Rouse comments on Disneyland</a></li>
<li>James Howard’s <a href="https://jameshoward.us/2015/09/02/the-vision-statement/">blog post on vision statements</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/1020792.Antoine_de_Saint_Exup_ry?page=2">Antoine de Saint-Exupéry’s full quote</a> in English and the original French</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>An “Inner Arbor/Inner Harbor” slide in McCall’s concept plan presentation made this comparison explicit, overlaying an outline of the new downtown Columbia area on the Inner Harbor area.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The phrase “beyond the berm” refers to the traditional practice of separating outdoor amphitheaters from their surroundings by a earthen embankment (“berm”).&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>As it happens the fountain proposed in the Inner Arbor concept plan is directly south of one of the entrances proposed for the public park, which in turn is at the same location as the main park entrance and staircase in the previous plan for Symphony Woods Park. The positioning of the proposed fountain thus harks back to the north-south axial alignment characteristic of previous plans for Symphony Woods, although per the Planning Board’s recommendations the Inner Arbor plan dispenses with the overly rigid pathway alignment of those plans.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/10/25/creating-the-chrysalis-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 25 Oct 2015 21:45:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/10/25/creating-the-chrysalis-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>I recap the history of Symphony Woods and the various attempts over the years to develop it as a park.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/symphony-woods-mixed-view.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/symphony-woods-mixed-view-embed.jpg"
         alt="View of Symphony woods showing mixed landscape"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>View through Symphony Woods looking southwest to Merriweather Post Pavilion, showing mixed forest and lawn landscapes. Click for a higher-resolution version. Image credit: Frank Hecker.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: I recap the history of Symphony Woods and the various attempts over the years to develop it as a park.</em></p>
<p>This article is one in a series exploring in depth the creation of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. For the complete list of articles please see the <a href="/creating-the-chrysalis">introduction</a> to the series.</p>
<p>Symphony Woods is a tract of (mostly) wooded land in the heart of Columbia, Maryland, and the site of the future Chrysalis amphitheater. The Chrysalis itself is located in the eastern part of Symphony Woods, in a relatively more hilly area than the more lawn-like northern section. (The Chrysalis is located near the bottom of one such hill, with the hillside providing space for the audience at Chrysalis events.)</p>
<p>This article in the “Creating the Chrysalis” series explores the long and tangled history of attempts to create a park in Symphony Woods prior to the adoption in 2013 of the so-called Inner Arbor plan, which aims to create a new park for downtown Columbia, Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>This 50-year history can be divided somewhat arbitrarily into three periods:</p>
<ul>
<li>1963&ndash;2007. From the creation of Columbia to the transition from the Rouse Company to General Growth Properties as the developer of downtown Columbia, a long era in which Symphony Woods remained undeveloped and (for the most part) out of the spotlight.</li>
<li>2008&ndash;2009. An intense period of controversy over GGP’s plans for downtown Columbia in general and Symphony Woods in particular (as part of what GGP called the “Merriweather” neighborhood), and the beginnings of the Columbia Association’s own efforts to create a park in Symphony Woods.</li>
<li>2010&ndash;2012. The beginning of the present era of downtown Columbia development, with the adoption by Howard County of the Downtown Columbia Plan, including designation of the combined “Merriweather-Symphony Woods” neighborhood, the transition from General Growth Properties to the Howard Hughes Corporation, and the continuation of and ultimate hiatus in the Columbia Association’s project to develop a Symphony Woods park.</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="19632007-symphony-woods">1963&ndash;2007: Symphony Woods</h3>
<p>In October 1963 developer Jim Rouse surprised Howard County officials and residents by announcing his intent to build a planned community on almost 14,000 acres of land recently acquired by a joint venture between his company and Connecticut General Life Insurance. Of those almost 14,000 acres, approximately 150 acres, or just over 1% of the total land area, were reserved for the downtown area of what was to become Columbia, Maryland.</p>
<p>Among the promised amenities for the planned community of Columbia was an extensive system of pathways, open space, and parks, including a 40-acre tract of wooded land in Columbia Town Center that evolved into what we know today as Symphony Woods. However the simple story told in the marketing material was complicated by the decisions made by Rouse and his associates.</p>
<p>First, within the woods at the town center Rouse planned an amphitheater proposed as a summer home for the National Symphony and a venue for other cultural events. In hopes of soliciting donations from Washington heiress Marjorie Merriweather Post, when completed in 1967 this amphitheater was christened Merriweather Post Pavilion&mdash;although in the end Post did not contribute any funds to construct or maintain it. The surrounding wooded land, now named Symphony Woods and comprising 37 acres, enclosed the 10-acre Merriweather Post Pavilion site on all sides, so that all access to the amphitheater required traversing Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>Second, while deeding Symphony Woods itself to the newly-formed Columbia Association, Rouse retained ownership of the Merriweather Post Pavilion site as well as a crescent-shaped property to the west and south of Symphony Woods, bordered by Broken Land Parkway and US 29. This latter property, in a prime location for intensive office, retail, or residential development, was kept as open space pending the future build-out of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p>These two decisions determined the fate of Symphony Woods for the next several decades. On the northern part of the property (next to Little Patuxent Parkway) the woods were treated as simply an extension of and access point to Merriweather Post Pavilion. This was especially true after a series of gatecrashing incidents at Merriweather rock concerts in the 1970s led to Symphony Woods being closed to non-ticket-holders while events were being held at the pavilion.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the western and southern parts of the wooded area (what we know today as the Crescent property) resembled a public park to some extent but were actually Rouse-owned land, with only private roads across Rouse property providing easy vehicular access to these parts of the woods.</p>
<p>The result was underuse of the general Symphony Woods and Crescent areas outside the context of Merriweather Post Pavilion. A children’s petting zoo operated in those areas during the summer month in the 1970s and early 1980s before closing due to lack of business. The annual Maryland Renaissance Festival was also hosted there during roughly the same time period, before it was moved to a dedicated site in Anne Arundel County.</p>
<p>No new uses emerged to replace them until the early 1990s, around the 25th birthday of Columbia. In 1993 the first Wine in the Woods festival was held, while in 1994 the Symphony of Lights Christmas display was created. The former was held in Symphony Woods itself, while the latter mainly occupied the Crescent property, with only a relatively small portion of the display in Symphony Woods proper.</p>
<p>1993 and 1994 also saw the first attempts to develop Symphony Woods as
a true park, as the Columbia Association contracted with Land Design Research (later renamed LDR International), a landscape design firm founded by former Columbia planner Cy Paumier and his associates, to study ways to increase the use of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>LDR International recommended creation of a pathway around Symphony Woods (i.e., circling the Merriweather Post Pavilion property), with a more formal park entrance and boardwalks over environmentally sensitive areas, a formal garden and separate wildflower plantings, seating for picnickers, and a “sound garden” with hidden speakers or fountains. The Columbia Association chose not to pursue this plan. Five years later in 1999 LDR International again presented a Symphony Woods proposal to CA, and again no action was taken.</p>
<p>However the general idea that more could be done with Symphony Woods persisted. For example, the Howard County General Plan 2000 mentioned it as an “attractive open space resource that could be used more fully” and recommended that Symphony Woods “be augmented for Columbia residents and for all those who come to Downtown Columbia to work, shop or spend leisure time.”</p>
<p>More years passed until 2003, when in April discussion of downtown Columbia development was revived by a Rouse Company request to Howard County to increase limits on residential density to support up to 2,100 new residences in Columbia, including new residential development on the still-unused Crescent property. Later that year Howard County Council member (and future County Executive) Ken Ulman and Columbia Association board<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> member Joshua Feldmark attempted to revive the idea of developing Symphony Woods as a park.  Again, nothing substantial resulted.</p>
<p>In 2004, eight years after Jim Rouse’s death, the Rouse Company was purchased by General Growth Properties. As a consequence of the acquisition GGP assumed the Rouse Company’s privileged role with respect to planning and zoning in Columbia: Under the ”New Town” zoning scheme originally created by Howard County, only the Rouse Company, and now GGP, could request zoning changes in Columbia, even in the case of properties like Symphony Woods that were owned by others.</p>
<p>That same year, amidst uncertainty over the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion, a citizens advisory panel produced a report that recommended “positioning Merriweather as a center for the arts, education and culture and making it an important regional and cultural force.” The next year, in 2005, the Columbia Association board considered moving CA headquarters to Symphony Woods, in part as a money-saving measure.</p>
<p>However the most important event in 2005 with respect to Symphony Woods was the beginning of a formal planning process for Columbia Town Center, including two “town hall” meetings sponsored by General Growth Properties in May and June and a “charrette” in October, a week-long series of meetings to solicit public comments on the future of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p>The charrette and related meetings resulted in the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning publishing in February 2006 a draft <em>Columbia Downtown Master Plan</em>. This plan treated Symphony Woods, Merriweather Post Pavilion, and the adjoining Crescent property as a single neighborhood for planning purposes, and envisioned it as “a cultural, residential, service retail, and office district.”</p>
<p>As for Symphony Woods itself, while envisioning the area as remaining “largely unchanged” the draft master plan noted “opportunities for public amenities such as plazas, pathways, public art, cultural monuments, and a skating rink,” and possibly small buildings “limited to civic or recreational uses”. For various reasons, including a lack of consensus around the details of downtown development, Howard County did not carry this master plan forward past the draft stage.</p>
<p>(In connection with this, during 2006 and 2007 there was also intense controversy over the Plaza Residences, a 22-story luxury condominium tower proposed to be built in downtown Columbia near the lakefront. The controversy was marked by accusations that the Howard County Planning Board had illegally approved the project, as well as more general concerns about high-density development in downtown Columbia. The project was essentially abandoned in 2008 due to the recession and the bankruptcy of its developer, WCI, but litigation relating to the project was not finally resolved until 2011. Although not directly related to Symphony Woods, the Plaza controversy energized anti-development activists and influenced attitudes toward subsequent proposals for downtown Columbia.)</p>
<p>Instead of a master plan the Department of Planning and Zoning sponsored the creation of a more general “framework” document, <em>Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision</em>. Released in draft form in September 2007 and in final form in December 2007, this document stated that “Symphony Woods needs to be preserved and enhanced as the ‘Central Park’ within Downtown” and concluded that “selected new recreational features may need to be added and activities may need to be programmed”. It also recommended “woodland restoration” and the addition of public art.</p>
<p>During this period General Growth Properties held its own private meetings with various civic and business groups to discuss its ideas for downtown development. However the Columbia Association was not among them: After having been criticized in October 2005 for having a private meeting related to the downtown Columbia charrette, the CA board in March 2006 prohibited CA President Maggie Brown and other CA staff members from having private discussions with General Growth Properties and Howard County regarding the development of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p>Columbia Association board members cited a provision of the Maryland Homeowners Association Act that (except for special circumstances, such as discussions of litigation), “all meetings of the homeowners association, including meetings of the board of directors or other governing body of the homeowners association or a committee of the homeowners association, shall be open to all members of the homeowners association or their agents”. The CA board interpreted (or extended) that provision as covering meetings of CA staff with GGP and Howard County in addition to meetings involving the board members themselves. CA board members subsequently reiterated to GGP in October 2007 their decision to discuss matters of mutual interest regarding downtown Columbia only in public meetings.</p>
<h3 id="20082009-merriweather">2008&ndash;2009: Merriweather</h3>
<p>In April 2008 General Growth Properties presented to the public its own proposed master plan for downtown Columbia. Like the draft <em>Columbia Downtown Master Plan</em>, the GGP draft plan treated Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods as a single area for planning purposes (splitting out the Crescent property as a separate neighborhood), and envisioned the combined area, now christened “Merriweather,” as “a new kind of cultural park where the landscape becomes a setting for arts, cultural and civic uses.”</p>
<p>The draft GGP plan proposed more integration between Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods, with the Merriweather infrastructure “designed to open outward supporting other planned and programmed events in Symphony Woods,” and recommended that the park “be designed for daily use with flexible spaces to be enjoyed in a variety of ways, including places of retreat and isolation from the urban context.”</p>
<p>More controversially, the plan proposed development of multiple civic and cultural buildings and other facilities within the northern section of Symphony Woods just south of Little Patuxent Parkway, including “a new Columbia Association headquarters, library, museum, galleries, and sculpture garden”. It also proposed a new east-west street crossing Symphony Woods south of Little Patuxent Parkway and north of Merriweather Post Pavilion, and a pedestrian promenade from the Mall in Columbia “[leading] to a new Fountain Plaza which connects directly to Merriweather Post Pavilion.”</p>
<p>A public meeting between General Growth Properties and the Columbia Association had occurred in early April less than three weeks before, after lengthy negotiations between CA and GGP relating to the time, place, and public nature of the meeting. The meeting itself covered only general discussions about matters relating to downtown Columbia and Symphony Woods, and did not address specific features of GGP’s plan. After the first public unveiling of the draft GGP master plan later that month, Columbia Association board members expressed surprise at GGP’s proposals for Symphony Woods and asserted CA’s right to determine how Symphony Woods should be developed.</p>
<p>Beginning in May 2008 and continuing during the summer General Growth Properties held a series of “Vision in Focus” public presentations describing the proposed master plan, as well as a separate “Community Discussions” series to solicit comments on the plan. During the same period the Columbia Association Board of Directors began the process of creating its own alternative proposals for Symphony Woods and downtown Columbia in general.</p>
<p>In June the CA board adopted a 17-point position statement that articulated CA’s position on desired outcomes for downtown development, including that “Symphony Woods will be protected and will serve as Columbia’s Community Park,” and in July it adopted guidelines for CA staff discussions with GGP regarding Symphony Woods, including that there be “provisions for a gathering place for individuals and community events” and “limited new roadways or buildings of a park-related scale.”</p>
<p>However at this time the Columbia Association did not yet have an actual alternative plan for Symphony Woods, although CA board member Cynthia Coyle apparently created an informal concept plan featuring a carousel, a children’s garden and arboretum, and some sort of water feature.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  In the fall of 2008 the Columbia Association was again approached by Cy Paumier, John Slater, and their associates, who had previously worked with CA in the 1990s on plans for Symphony Woods. After meeting with representatives of General Growth Properties in October regarding GGP’s downtown Columbia plans, in December the CA board approved having Paumier, Slater, and their associates create a CA-sponsored concept plan for Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>In the meantime the formal Howard County planning process relating to the General Growth Properties plan had begun, with a submission by GGP to the Department of Planning and Zoning in October 2008. In November the DPZ provided a response to that submission in the form of its Technical Staff Report, intended as a set of recommendations to the Howard County Planning Board.</p>
<p>The Department of Planning and Zoning staff report noted that the General Growth Properties plan “[included] significant reduction of parkland in Symphony Woods” and “[did] not provide for sufficient preservation of existing trees”. The report’s list of “Key Recommendations” included a recommendation that “The Plan should provide for an acre-to-acre replacement plan of parkland for each acre of Symphony Woods where new buildings are planned; or, the plan should suggest other locations for proposed arts, cultural and community facilities if the Columbia Association does not authorize such facilities on their land.”</p>
<p>The DPZ staff report also included comments from other Howard County agencies about the General Growth Properties proposal. The Howard County Library System was “excited” about “the concept of a new, state-of the-art Central Library . . . that would serve as both an anchor and a draw to the ‘Cultural Center Avenue’ described in General Growth Properties’ proposed plans for a revitalized Columbia Town Center,” while the Howard County Arts Council noted that the plan’s arts and culture sections were consistent with the arts recommendations in previous Howard County planning documents, including <em>Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision</em>.</p>
<p>However the Howard County Office of Environment Sustainability warned that the General Growth Properties plan “would reduce the natural areas within Symphony Woods and includes building and road construction which would damage or remove prime areas of healthy mature forest,” and went on to note that, “While there are many strong environmental enhancements included in the plan, it also calls for the removal of 48% of the trees in the Merriweather and Crescent areas (588 of 1214 trees).”</p>
<p>Having received the Department of Planning and Zoning report, the Howard County Planning Board held off on making an immediate decision on the General Growth Properties plan, and instead started a series of public work sessions. These sessions, including testimony by interested parties, began on January 8, 2009, with GGP’s response to the DPZ staff report and ran through the winter, spring and summer.</p>
<p>As of April 9, 2009, a total of 25 organizations and over a hundred individuals had provided testimony to the Planning Board. Organizations supporting General Growth Properties’ submission included activist groups such as Bring Back the Vision, Columbia 2.0, and Columbia Tomorrow, as well as more established groups like the Chamber of Commerce, Columbia Center for Theatrical Arts, Columbia Orchestra, and the Business Alliance. The activist groups Alliance for a Better Columbia, the Coalition for Columbia’s Downtown, and the Howard County Citizens Association organizations urged GGP to submit a new plan, as did the League of Women Voters.</p>
<p>The Columbia Association, along with various Columbia village boards, was recorded as being somewhere in the middle, requesting various types of amendments to the plan but not requesting that it be resubmitted. In particular, with respect to Symphony Woods CA expressed concern that “the two large buildings, underground parking, and several roads proposed for Symphony Woods are in direct contradiction to CA’s vision,” that “CA is very concerned about the removal of many trees in Symphony Woods and wants to preserve the integrity of the parkland,” and therefore “CA does not agree with exchanging existing land in the heart of Symphony Woods for other land” (as proposed by GGP).</p>
<p>While the Planning Board was taking public testimony the Columbia Association continued its efforts to produce its own plan for Symphony Woods. On March 26, 2009, the Columbia Association Board of Directors reviewed an initial Symphony Woods concept plan (one of three created by Cy Paumier, John Slater, and associates), approved it, and directed that it be presented to the public. The CA board followed up on August 27 later that year by unanimously approving sending a letter to the Howard County Planning Board notifying it of CA’s intention to present a concept plan for Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>A new wrinkle was added to the controversy of Columbia downtown planning in April 2009 when General Growth Properties declared bankruptcy. GGP’s Columbia operations were not part of the bankruptcy petition, and GGP declared its intent to move forward with its proposed plan. However GGP’s financial problems introduced new uncertainty into the long-term development of Columbia according to the proposed plan.</p>
<p>On September 17, 2009, after several months of public work sessions and testimony, the Howard County Planning Board finally made its formal recommendations to the Howard County Council regarding the Downtown Columbia Plan proposed by General Growth Properties and the associated zoning regulations (ZRA-113).</p>
<p>Concerning Symphony Woods, the Planning Board unanimously recommended “downtown development standards to protect large, mature, specimen trees in Symphony Woods,” that “Symphony Woods be maintained and used as Columbia’s downtown park for passive recreational uses only”,<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup> and that “there be no buildings on Columbia Association-owned land except for ancillary use facilities, like a small café, to support passive recreational uses”. The board also recommended that “pedestrian connections to the Mall and from Merriweather Post Pavilion be improved to facilitate frequent usage within Symphony Woods” and that “the County Council request a presentation by the Columbia Association regarding its plan for Symphony Woods.”</p>
<p>The day before, on September 16, the Columbia Association presented to the public the concept plan developed by Cy Paumier, John Slater, and associates for development of Symphony Woods (a plan CA originally promised to release in April). Shortly thereafter the Columbia Association Board of Directors voted 7-2 to approve the plan for Symphony Woods as presented by Paumier, Slater, and associates.</p>
<p>What became known as the “Paumier plan” (more formally, the plan for “Symphony Woods Park”) rejected General Growth Properties’ idea of cultural and civic buildings in the northern section of Symphony Woods in favor of “a plaza to include an interactive water feature and a small café with restrooms” as well as “a children’s play area, sculptures, and future park related uses” (the latter being unspecified in the original Paumier plan). Like the GGP plan, the Paumier plan retained the idea of a north-south alignment to “reinforce the visual axis connecting Town Center with the Pavilion”. The pathway system was proposed to be circular, with the “center of the circle, with a modest amount of tree thinning, [being] a special outdoor room for the community to gather.”</p>
<h3 id="20102012-merriweather-symphony-woods">2010&ndash;2012: Merriweather-Symphony Woods</h3>
<p>November 2009 saw the Howard County Council begin its consideration of the proposed downtown plan, as Council Chair Mary Kay Sigaty introduced two proposed pieces of legislation, Council Bill 58 (CB58-2009) to adopt a downtown Columbia plan as an amendment to the Howard County General Plan 2000, and Council Bill 59 (CB59-2009) to implement the necessary changes to Howard County zoning regulations to enforce the plan’s provisions. The Council held public hearings on the bills in November and again in January 2010 before moving to final consideration of the legislation at the beginning of February.</p>
<p>With respect to Symphony Woods the final version of Council Bill 58 made a number of substantive changes from the bill originally introduced (which reflected the General Growth Properties plan). Amendment 7 (together with Amendment 1 to Amendment 7, which made additional technical corrections) retained the language in the GGP plan calling for “a new kind of cultural park where the landscape becomes a setting for arts, cultural and civic uses,” but emphasized the integration of Symphony Woods into this vision by designating the combined Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods properties as the “Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood.”</p>
<p>Amendment 7 also removed the language in the General Growth Properties plan referring to buildings in the northern section of Symphony Woods, and replaced it with language referencing “compatible commercial uses such as a café in the park or museum shop”. Similarly, language referring to “park drives” through Symphony Woods was replaced with language referencing “a new system of paths and infrastructure [that] will support festivals and other events in the park,” with “access through Merriweather-Symphony Woods that connects the civic and cultural uses [that] will be compatible with the topography”. However Amendment 7 retained language from the GGP plan referencing “a new north/south axis from Market Square at The Mall” and “a new Fountain Plaza which connects to Merriweather Post Pavilion.”</p>
<p>CB58-2009 and CB59-2009 were unanimously approved by the Howard County Council on February 1, 2010, with the <em>Columbia Flier</em> singling out Council Chair Mary Kay Sigaty as “largely credited with leading council members through revising the plan”. Both bills were subsequently signed by Howard County Executive Ken Ulman on February 3, and the new plan from CB58-2009 officially published as the document <em>Downtown Columbia Plan: A General Plan Amendment</em>.</p>
<p>Adoption of the Downtown Columbia Plan did not quell opposition however. Opponents of the 5,500-unit allowance for residential units in downtown Columbia started a drive to force a referendum on that part of the plan, while others planned a challenge to Mary Kay Sigaty in the Democratic primary for Howard County Council that year. (Both efforts were ultimately unsuccessful.)</p>
<p>In the meantime the Columbia Association continued to move forward with the Paumier plan for Symphony Woods Park. In April 2010 the CA board directed staff to prepare for a groundbreaking in May, and on May 18 CA leaders thanked local legislators Sen. Edward Kasemeyer and Del. Elizabeth Bobo for their help in securing a $250,000 grant from the state of Maryland, and welcomed the promise of another $250,000 grant from what the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> termed a “mysterious area nonprofit” from outside Howard County that wished to remain anonymous.</p>
<p>However on May 20 Columbia Association President Phil Nelson informed the CA board of a potential roadblock to CA’s development of Symphony Woods, due to new Howard County planning processes imposed by CB58-2009 and CB59-2009, including so-called “CEPPA” requirements (for “Community Enhancements, Programs and Public Amenities”).</p>
<p>While some board members thought the Columbia Association was exempt from such requirements (board member Cynthia Coyle remarked, “The curiosity I have is why would we be held up by a CEPPA”), Nelson recommended on June 29 that “CA work through the development process that the County has imposed in CB58 and CB59“, warning that “by demanding and being granted an exemption from the rules and regulations that the County Council feel are in the best interests of the residents of Columbia and Howard County, CA will be the one that opens the door to the possibilities of bad planning and judgment.”</p>
<p>In July the Columbia Association put out an request for proposals for consultants to work on the design and development of Symphony Woods Park, including creation of the Final Development Plan, Site Development Plan, and related documents needed for the planning process.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup>  By November planning work was well under way, with construction projected to start in late 2011. One complicating factor arose with the planned fountain, namely that the Howard County Bureau of Environmental Health advised that “restrooms must be provided in order to receive Health Department approval for a building permit for an interactive fountain.”</p>
<p>November 2010 also saw a major change in the world of downtown Columbia development as the newly-created Howard Hughes Corporation was spun out of General Growth Properties as a separate company to handle GGP’s planned community portfolio. In addition to ownership of Merriweather Post Pavilion and the Crescent property, Howard Hughes also assumed GGP’s responsibilities for planning in Columbia Town Center.</p>
<p>Planning work continued on Symphony Woods Park. As of December 15 a “Phase 1 &amp; 2 Design Development Plan” being considered by the Columbia Association Planning and Strategy Committee had changed the circular pathway system of the concept plan to an elliptical pathway, with a fountain and accompanying snack shop with restrooms (presumably to satisfy health department requirements) on the southwest side of the ellipse. The snack shop backed up against the Merriweather Post Pavilion fence, with access to the pavilion still through the traditional east and west gates.</p>
<p>As in the concept plan there was a grand staircase down to the pathway system from Little Patuxent Parkway across from the mall access road, in line with the Downtown Columbia Plan language about “a new north/south axis from Market Square at The Mall”. However the staircase design did not include any ramps to address accessibility concerns.</p>
<p>This design was used in the preparation of a draft Final Development Plan prepared for review by the Columbia Association Board of Directors in March 2011 in advance of a future public pre-submission meeting for the project. At about the same time Cy Paumier created and submitted an alternative design drawing for review by the board.</p>
<p>In April the Strategic Implementation Committee of the Columbia Association reviewed a new alternate “Plan B” layout for development of Symphony Woods, presumably based on Cy Paumier’s new design. This new design eliminated the elliptical pathway system of the previous design in favor of a cruciform system in which a north-south pathway ran from the grand staircase at Little Patuxent Parkway (retained from the previous design) south to a point across the Merriweather Post Pavilion fence from the Merriweather restrooms. An east-west path crossed the north-south path at a circular plaza with a fountain at its center. The snack shop was no longer in the design, but a location for a possible future café was noted at the south end of the north-south path next to the Merriweather fence. As in the previous design, the grand staircase at Little Patuxent Parkway lacked an accompanying ramp.</p>
<p>In early May the Strategic Implementation Committee recommended that “the CA Board of Directors approve the Staff to redirect the work of the project team” to produce a Final Development Plan for the new Plan B design, and on June 9 the CA board unanimously adopted the new design. CA subsequently presented this design to the public on June 16 in a so-called “presubmission meeting” prior to submitting the new Final Development Plan to Howard County.</p>
<p>By July 2011 the schedule for the groundbreaking on the Symphony Woods Park project had been pushed back to March 2012. In the next stage in the process the Columbia Association presented the new design to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel on July 13. The 36-page presentation included two plan renderings of the new cruciform pathway system, a drawing of the proposed staircase from Little Patuxent Parkway down to the north-south path, and a concept drawing of the fountain and café marked “for discussion purposes only.”</p>
<p>At the July 13 meeting various Design Advisory Panel members criticized the design as lacking a suitable vision and “strength of design,” and the panel as a whole recommended (among other things) defining a “specific vision for this site” and providing “more clarity to a theme for the neighborhood.”</p>
<p>Taking stock after the presubmission meeting and Design Advisory Panel meeting, Columbia Association staff noted that key issues raised at the presubmission meeting included “accessibility, restrooms, the fountain, circulation inside the park, connectivity to the park, parking, and [the] master plan” and made a number of recommendations, starting with adding a ramp to the staircase into the park.</p>
<p>As for the Design Advisory Panel meeting, CA staff agreed that the DAP motions “[reflected] the feeling . . . that the ‘big picture’ for the park must be more fully developed and shared with the community” and noted that “we have all been focused on getting phase 1 constructed”. The staff concluded that “it would be beneficial to develop a clear and inspirational vision statement that reflects the site attributes, the Board’s desired outcomes and the context in Town Center.”</p>
<p>At the September 8 Columbia Association board meeting the Planning and Strategy committee recommended adopting a new vision statement for Symphony Woods. The 11-paragraph draft statement began, “Symphony Woods Park will be Columbia’s central park one day and will be a place of music, the arts and nature.” The statement went on to note, “The central issue in designing Symphony Woods Park is to create access through the woods in a way that protects the trees and the natural landscape while supporting use of the park by greater numbers of people.”</p>
<p>The CA board subsequently approved a vision statement on October 13 after amending it in various ways.<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup>  The vision statement envisioned Symphony Woods as “Columbia’s central park,” “a breathtaking gateway to Merriweather Post Pavilion,” and “a place that celebrates music, arts and nature”. The statement also envisioned Symphony Woods as providing “venues for energetic, creative activities such as community fairs, cultural events, art &amp; craft vendors, local artists and spaces for reflective respite.”</p>
<p>Work on the park project continued, with a contract awarded later that fall for the design of the planned fountain. At a meeting of the Columbia Association Board of Directors on January 26, 2012, various options for the fountain were presented to the board, with the board members offering their respective critiques of the designs.</p>
<p>Meanwhile Columbia Association staff were working with the Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning to progress the Symphony Woods Park project through the county planning process. On March 5, 2012, CA submitted a Final Developmemt Plan for the park to the county, along with other required documents. The first Howard County Planning Board meeting on the FDP and related submissions was scheduled for June 21.</p>
<p>On June 28 the Department of Planning and Zoning issued a Technical Staff Report on the Columbia Association’s Final Development Plan for development of a park in the 16-acre northern section of Symphony Woods, FDP-DC-MSW-1. This FDP included not only the pathway system, fountain, and café previously discussed, but also a “shared use pavilion” and “shared use amphitheater” to be available for both Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion events, as well as a “play activity area” and “woodland garden area.”</p>
<p>The pathway system was the north-south/east-west cruciform geometric arrangement from the Plan B design, with other paths leading in curved arcs from Little Patuxent Parkway to the proposed shared use pavilion at the Merriweather fence and then back out to Little Patuxent Parkway. Other than mention of the shared use facilities the FDP as presented showed minimal integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion, with the entrances into the pavilion some distance from the proposed features, and the proposed north-south pathway dead-ending at the Merriweather Post Pavilion fence across from the Merriweather restrooms.</p>
<p>The DPZ Technical Staff Report recommended approval of the Final Development Plan subject to addressing various technical comments. However it also referenced the Design Advisory Panel’s recommendations regarding design guidelines, and added, “Subsequent plans should reflect careful coordination with Merriweather Post Pavilion to maximize the importance of the entire Neighborhood as a cultural and community centerpiece.”</p>
<p>The Planning Board held a public meeting on the Columbia Association’s proposals on July 12, with testimony from both CA representatives and the general public. Concern over the trees in Symphony Woods was a major theme of the testimony, with several people objecting to the removal of mature trees. According to CA testimony the estimated number of trees to be removed was 64 in a “worst-case scenario” involving the proposed pathway configuration; however this did not address trees to be removed within the area of Merriweather Post Pavilion or (apparently) in the Symphony Woods locations where the shared use amphitheater, pavilion, café, play activity area, and other as-yet-undesigned features were to be located.</p>
<p>On July 19, 2012, the Planning Board voted 5-0 to approve the Final Development Plan, but did not release its final “decision and order” until September 6 after a vacation break. That decision reiterated comments made by Planning Board members in the July 19 meeting, and formally recommended that the Columbia Association make certain key changes to its proposals. One of these was to reroute pathways to avoid removal of trees, “consider[ing] existing topography and vegetation, and adjusting paths to meander around healthy trees to increase the number of trees that may remain.”</p>
<p>The other change was to develop a plan for integration of Symphony Woods with Merriweather Post Pavilion, with the Planning Board emphasizing “the need for the development of Symphony Woods Park to coordinate with the redevelopment of Merriweather Post Pavilion,” recommending that the plan “maximize potential interaction with Merriweather Post Pavilion with shared use facilities and cross access between the sites,” and noting that “concepts employed in the park should increase opportunities for year-round use.”</p>
<p>In the meantime a Columbia Association staff report (dated August 17) and an accompanying presentation at the CA board meeting on August 23 discussed how to proceed in the light of the Planning Board decision. The staff report noted, “This point in the process is an opportune time to consider the park plan in light of other recent planning efforts,” citing parallel efforts by the Howard Hughes Corporation to redevelop Merriweather Post Pavilion, including “a dramatically different concept for Merriweather-Symphony Woods that includes many new uses on CA land and on HHC land that will, if implemented, make the neighborhood more like the cultural park envisioned in the Downtown Plan.”</p>
<p>Columbia Association staff presented three possible courses of action: “stay the course” (i.e., continue with the existing design), “pause until plans for Merriweather take shape” (as part of a collaborative effort with Howard Hughes), or “pause but increase programming and enhancements” (i.e., to encourage increased use of Symphony Woods). The staff recommended the third option, including collaboration with Howard Hughes on a Merriweather-Symphony Woods master plan, noting that “it would allow for the best possible chance for a design solution to create an integrated Merriweather-Symphony Woods Park destination.”</p>
<p>On October 11, 2012, the Columbia Association Board of Directors meeting featured a public presentation of such a new design concept for Merriweather and Symphony Woods. That concept included a new vision for what Symphony Woods could be and a new strategy for realizing that vision, as part of what became known as the “Inner Arbor” plan.</p>
<p>The next article in this series will address that vision and strategy, and how they ultimately led to the current design for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, of which the Chrysalis amphitheater will be the first element.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>This article is based on material from a variety of online sources, including the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>Newspaper articles from the <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/advancedsearch.html"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> online archives</a></li>
<li>Newspaper articles from the <a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/"><em>Columbia Flier</em> online archives</a></li>
<li>The original Columbia “marketing brochure” created by Community Research and Development (later Howard Research and Development) (courtesy of the <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.org/services/columbia-archives">Columbia Archives</a>):
<ul>
<li><a href="http://issuu.com/columbiaarchives/docs/columbia_a_new_town"><em>Columbia: A New Town for Howard County</em></a> (November 11, 1964)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various Howard County planning documents:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://planhoward.org/GP2000_amended.pdf"><em>Howard County General Plan 2000</em></a></li>
<li><a href="https://archive.org/details/CDMP1Intro"><em>The Columbia Downtown Master Plan</em> (Preliminary Draft)</a> (February 27, 2006)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442474011&amp;libID=6442474003"><em>Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision</em></a> (December 2007)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=2430">Howard County DPZ Technical Staff Report on ZRA 113</a> (November 13, 2008)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442451491">Proposed General Plan Amendment and Zoning Regulation Amendment 113 - Public Comment</a>” (April 9, 2009)</li>
<li><a href="http://countyofhowardmd.us/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=4294967302">Howard County Planning Board recommendation on the General Plan Amendment for Downtown Columbia</a> (September 17, 2009)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461824"><em>Downtown Columbia Plan: A General Plan Amendment</em></a> (February 1, 2010)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/uploadedFiles/Home/Boards_and_Commissions/Planning_and_Zoning/DAPsum%202011-07-13.pdf">Howard County Design Advisory Panel minutes, July 13, 2011</a></li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442466604&amp;libID=6442466595">Howard County DPZ Technical Staff Report, Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood, Case No. PB 394</a> (June 28, 2012)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442467410&amp;libID=6442467401">Howard County Planning Board Decision and Order, Case No. PB 394</a> (September 6, 2012)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Howard County Council legislation relating to the Downtown Columbia Plan
<ul>
<li><a href="http://cc.howardcountymaryland.gov/ENRCB58-2009.pdf">CB58-2009, <em>An Act adopting the Downtown Columbia Plan, a General Plan Amendment for the purpose of revitalizing and redeveloping Downtown Columbia; . . .</em></a> (introduced November 2, 2009; passed with amendments February 1, 2010; signed February 3, 2010)</li>
<li><a href="http://cc.howardcountymaryland.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442455326">Amendment 7 to CB58-2009</a> and <a href="http://cc.howardcountymaryland.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442460058">Amendment 1 to Amendment 7</a> (February 1, 2010)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various General Growth Properties documents from the defunct web site columbiatowncenter.info, now preserved by the <a href="http://archive.org/">Internet Archive</a>:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081102203138/http://www.columbiatowncenter.info/MasterPlan/draft.aspx">Draft Columbia master plan web site</a></li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090218225300/http://columbiatowncenter.info/pdf/manyvoices/2_special_place.pdf">Making a Special Place</a>” (February 18, 2009 snapshot)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090219024442/http://columbiatowncenter.info/pdf/manyvoices/4_environment.pdf">Sustaining the Environment</a>” (February 19, 2009 snapshot)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20090219024548/http://columbiatowncenter.info/pdf/manyvoices/5_growth.pdf">Balancing and Phasing Growth</a>” (February 19, 2009 snapshot) (see page 53)</li>
<li>“<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091007112052/http://www.columbiatowncenter.info/pdf/manyvoices/7_exhibits.pdf">Exhibits</a>” (October 7, 2009 snapshot)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Various Columbia Association documents and other documents relevant to CA’s actions:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/board/board-orientation-documents">CA board orientation documents</a>, including “<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B84Q_1k4eE6eajBiNnlXYXpkXzA/edit?usp=sharing">The Evolution of the Columbia Association</a>”</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/board/meetings/agendas-packets-minutes">CA board agendas, minutes, and related materials</a>, including documents provided to the board for the following board meetings, with items of interest as noted:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowDocumentPacket/?agendaID=528&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">December 21, 2010</a> (first design)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowDocumentPacket/?agendaID=432&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">March 31, 2010</a> (draft FDP)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowDocumentPacket/?agendaID=441&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">June 9, 2011</a> (Plan B design)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowDocumentPacket/?agendaID=448&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">July 28, 2011</a> (minutes of the June 16 pre-submission meeting, review of DAP comments)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowDocumentPacket/?minutesID=391&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">September 22, 2011</a> (draft vision statement, staff update including tree impact)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowDocumentPacket/?minutesID=393&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">October 13, 2011</a> (vision statement)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowDocumentPacket/?minutesID=399&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">November 22, 2011</a> (fountain contract awarded, resubmittal of FDP and related documents)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowDocumentPacket/?agendaID=472&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">December 22, 2011</a> (progress of FDP, update on fountain design)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowPrimaryDocument/?agendaID=400&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">August 23, 2012</a> (CA staff report and presentation discussing possible ways to proceed with Symphony Woods development)</li>
<li><a href="http://columbiaassociation.org/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingMinutes/ShowDocumentPacket/?minutesID=341&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">September 13, 2012</a> (draft minutes for the August 23 board meeting)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100415011515/http://www.columbiaassociation.com/pdfs/CAtoPlanningBoard_Testimony020509.pdf">CA testimony to the Howard County Planning Board regarding ZRA-113</a> (February 5, 2009)</li>
<li><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20100415011502/http://www.columbiaassociation.com/pdfs/CAtoPlanningBoard_Comments020509.pdf">CA response to DPZ key recommendations</a> (February 5, 2009)</li>
<li><a href="http://static1.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52c443c8e4b040f12a6f9274/1388594120833/DAP+meeting+7+13+11+copy+2.pdf">CA presentation to the Design Advisory Panel</a> (July 13, 2011)</li>
<li><a href="/assets/texts/symphony-woods-park-vision-statement-as-adopted-2011-10-13.pdf">CA vision statement for Symphony Woods Park (reconstructed)</a> (October 13, 2011)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.oag.state.md.us/Opengov/11B-111.pdf">Section 11B-111 of the Maryland Homeowners Association Act</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Selected blog posts from the following blogs and bloggers:
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://columbiacompass.blogspot.com/">Columbia Compass</a>” (Bill Santos)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://howardcountyblog.blogspot.com/">Howard County Blog</a>” (Evan Coren and Cynthia Coyle)</li>
<li>“<a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/">Tale of Two Cities</a>” (Dennis Lane)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Selected documents from the following civic groups:
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.coalitionforcolumbiasdowntown.org/AboutUs.html">Coalition for Columbia’s Downtown</a></li>
<li><a href="https://columbia2.wordpress.com/about-us/">Columbia 2.0</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>For my own opinions on various aspects of the long-running controversies around development of Symphony Woods prior to the creation of the Inner Arbor plan, see the following blog posts:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="/2014/04/16/a-walk-in-symphony-woods/">A walk in Symphony Woods</a>”</li>
<li>“<a href="/2014/04/17/ggp-ca-cy-paumier-and-the-battle-over-symphony-woods/">GGP, CA, Cy Paumier, and the battle over Symphony Woods</a>”</li>
<li>“<a href="/2014/04/18/looking-back-at-the-paumier-plan-for-symphony-woods/">Looking back at the Paumier plan for Symphony Woods</a>”</li>
<li>“<a href="/2014/04/19/how-not-to-save-symphony-woods/">How not to save Symphony Woods</a>”</li>
</ul>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The governance of the Columbia Association is somewhat complex and includes an elected body, the Columbia Council, that is legally distinct from the actual Board of Directors of the Columbia Association. However in practice the Columbia Council and the Columbia Association Board of Directors are the same people, and in this post and others to reduce confusion I refer to them simply as the CA board.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>I write “apparently” because the only public record I could find regarding Coyle’s concept plan was a blog post by the late Dennis Lane, a critic of Coyle and her plan.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The Planning Board did not provide an exact definition of the term “passive recreational uses” in its recommendations. However the document <em>Downtown Columbia: A Community Vision</em> refers to “passive recreation and community gathering areas such as parks, plazas, amphitheatres, and gardens.”&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>In the jargon of Howard County planning a Final Development Plan is not actually a “final” plan (as we speak of a “final draft”). The FDP can be thought of more as an overview of and high-level design for the development, including the general types, sizes, and locations of structures to be placed there. The actual final designs as they are to be proposed to be constructed are submitted subsequently as part of the Site Development Plan.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>It is difficult to tell exactly what the Columbia Association Board of Directors adopted as a Symphony Woods Park vision statement on October 13, 2011, as the CA board minutes do not include an exact copy of the statement as adopted. The board packet for the meeting includes a September 9 memo from the Planning and Strategy Committee, accompanied by a “clean” version of a proposed vision statement, as well as a marked-up copy of a vision statement showing significant edits from the first statement. (This marked-up version was not included in the PSC vision statement material included in the board packet for September 22.)  My best guess is that the marked-up copy is what the board considered on October 13, and that the board-adopted amendments were to that version. I have reconstructed the vision statement on that basis.&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating the Chrysalis: Introduction</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/10/24/creating-the-chrysalis-introduction/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 24 Oct 2015 22:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/10/24/creating-the-chrysalis-introduction/</guid>
      <description>In this series I explore the conception and construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-rendering-exterior-view.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-rendering-exterior-view-embed.jpg"
         alt="Chrysalis exterior view"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Architectural rendering of the Chrysalis amphitheater in Columbia, Maryland. (Click for a higher-resolution version.)  Image © 2015 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: In this series I explore the conception and construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</em></p>
<p>April 22, 2017 marked the <a href="http://inartrust.org/dedication-celebration">official opening</a> of the Chrysalis amphitheater, the first element of the Inner Arbor plan to be constructed as part of the planned Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods in Columbia, Maryland. The series “Creating the Chrysalis”</p>
<ul>
<li>explains in detail the design and construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater in layperson’s terms;</li>
<li>highlights the various organizations on the “Chrysalis team” and the parts each of them have played or are playing in its creation.</li>
<li>describes the place of the Chrysalis amphitheater within the plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods and the overall history of Symphony Woods itself; and</li>
<li>includes and provides context for more visual material relating to the Chrysalis, including detailed renderings, excerpts from engineering drawings, and photographs of construction and fabrication.</li>
</ul>
<p>“Creating the Chrysalis” includes the following articles (I’ll update
this list with links as I publish new articles):</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="/2015/10/25/creating-the-chrysalis-symphony-woods/">Symphony Woods</a>: The history of Symphony Woods and the various attempts over the years to develop it as a park.</li>
<li><a href="/2015/11/01/creating-the-chrysalis-vision-and-strategy/">Vision and strategy</a>: The initial vision for a new park in Symphony Woods and the strategy to implement that vision, as developed from the initial Inner Arbor concept plan to the current county-approved plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</li>
<li><a href="/2016/01/17/creating-the-chrysalis-politics-and-process/">Politics and process</a>: The various institutional activities related to implementation of the Inner Arbor plan, with a focus on the Columbia Association, the Inner Arbor Trust, and the Howard County government, including its planning process.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/01/07/creating-the-chrysalis-design/">Design</a>: The overall form of the Chrysalis and how that design came to be.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/01/21/creating-the-chrysalis-theater/">Theater</a>: The theatrical functions of the Chrysalis, including the stage, sound system, theatrical lighting, and “back of house” functions.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/02/18/creating-the-chrysalis-shell-structure/">Shell structure</a>: The steel framework supporting the Chrysalis skin and the theatrical equipment.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/03/04/creating-the-chrysalis-shell-skin/">Shell skin</a>: The skin forming the external surface of the Chrysalis.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/03/18/creating-the-chrysalis-subfloor-and-related-construction/">Subfloor</a>: The structural concrete foundation/basement or “subfloor” of the Chrysalis, and related construction.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/04/21/creating-the-chrysalis-details-details/">Details, details</a>: The final details of the Chrysalis and its surroundings.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/04/11/creating-the-chrysalis-attracting-the-public/">Attracting the public</a>: How the Chrysalis and other features of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods will accomodate the general public and attract visitors.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/04/14/creating-the-chrysalis-what-comes-next/">What comes next</a>: Future features of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, including the Butterfly, the Merriground, the Picnic Table, the Caterpillar, and the Merriweather Horns.</li>
<li><a href="/2017/06/03/creating-the-chrysalis-timeline/">Timeline</a>: A detailed timeline, with references, of the events and activities from the creation of Symphony Woods up to the public opening of the Chrysalis amphitheater.</li>
</ol>
<p>This series is based on material published by the Inner Arbor Trust and others, as well as on my previous blog posts about the Inner Arbor plan and its various features. Any opinions expressed are solely mine as an individual and do not necessarily represent the views of the Inner Arbor Trust, its contractors and partners, or any other person or organization.</p>
<p>All material created by me for this series is available for use by others under the terms of the <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>. Please attribute any reused or adapted material using a notice similar to the following:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>This work contains material from “Creating the Chrysalis” by Frank Hecker, originally published at frankhecker.com and released under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.</p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>For more of my opinions on and explanations of various aspects of the Chrysalis and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, see the <a href="/tags/innerarbor/">Inner Arbor-related posts</a> in the series “The Inner Arbor plan takes shape” and elsewhere on this blog. (Note that some of these posts contain outdated information relating to park features that were later dropped or revised.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Raising the roof at Merriweather Post Pavilion</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/09/26/raising-the-roof-at-merriweather-post-pavilion/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 26 Sep 2015 10:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/09/26/raising-the-roof-at-merriweather-post-pavilion/</guid>
      <description>Merriweather Post Pavilion gets ready for the 21st century, and the Howard County Design Advisory Panel offers its advice.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-roof-rendering.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-roof-rendering-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather Post Pavilion with raised roof"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Architectural rendering of the planned raised roof of the Merriweather Post Pavilion in Columbia, Maryland. Click for a higher-resolution version. Image credit: JP2 Architects.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: Merriweather Post Pavilion gets ready for the 21st century, and the Howard County Design Advisory Panel offers its advice.</em></p>
<p>I’ve previously written about the planned renovations of Merriweather Post Pavilion in downtown Columbia. Last week that renovation took two more steps forward, with a <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-community-merriweather-roof-0910-20150909-story.html">pre-submission community meeting</a> (held at Merriweather itself) to present the plans to the general public and a meeting of the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/dap.htm">Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> to review the current design for the renovated pavilion.</p>
<p>To make a long story short, the Design Advisory Panel gave its overall blessing to the design, though with some advice given along the way. (This seems to be a standard practice of the Panel, at least based on the meetings I’ve attended.)  I found the discussion of some aspects of the design to be fascinating. In order to understand why it’s best to take a trip back in time.</p>
<p>Most people familiar with Columbia know that the Merriweather Post Pavilion was designed by Frank Gehry (only a half-truth, as I’ll discuss below). Some of those people also know that Merriweather Post Pavilion was originally intended to be a venue for classical music, not the popular music mecca it later became. However what I didn’t know (until I did some research for this article) is that the present form of Merriweather Post Pavilion is an accident of history.</p>
<p>What became Merriweather Post Pavilion was originally supposed to be designed by an architect from California, Jim Lief.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  However his design, a 3000-seat “free form tent structure . . . made of nylon material,” was ultimately deemed to be unbuildable, a conclusion that was reached only six months before the pavilion was supposed to be inaugurated with a gala concert to be attended by Vice President Hubert Humphrey and other dignitaries. The Columbia project managers then had to scramble to put together an alternative, and project architects Frank Gehry and <a href="http://ndavidomalley.com">N. David O’Malley</a> created a new design that was then constructed on a fast-track schedule.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-aerial-view.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-aerial-view-embed.jpg"
         alt="Aerial view of Merriweather Post Pavilion"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Aerial view of Merriweather Post Pavilion in Columbia, Maryland. The narrow end of the pavilion roof is the stage roof. Click for the full image.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Due to the time constraints and the relatively small budget of $500,000 (about $3.5 million today), the design of Merriweather Post Pavilion turned out to be relatively straightforward and spartan: a flat pavilion roof (trapezoidal in shape when viewed from above), with the narrow end of the trapezoid also serving as the roof of the stage house, i.e., the portion of the pavilion enclosing the the stage. This latter feature meant that there was not a lot of room above the stage. This was made worse by the fact that the stage house walls were not vertical but rather sloped inward (continuing the trapezoid theme), so that the stage house was narrower near its top than at stage level.</p>
<p>This design was adequate for Merriweather Post Pavilion’s original intended use by a symphony orchestra, which did not have a need for elaborate sets and associated rigging above the performers. However the use of the pavilion for symphony performances lasted only briefly (its intended tenant, the National Symphony Orchestra, having gone bankrupt), and other “high culture” performances such as ballet lasted only slightly longer.</p>
<p>In the 1970s Merriweather Post Pavilion became a venue primarily for popular music acts, and remains so to this day. The focus of the Merriweather renovation is thus on better serving such acts, with their elaborate sets and larger audiences. This includes making the stage house higher, improving sight lines for audiences on the lawn, and providing permanent roofs (instead of seasonal tents) for audiences in the loge areas to the left and right of the main pavilion seating.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-roof-actual.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-roof-actual-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather Post Pavilion with current roof"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Current roof of Merriweather Post Pavilion as seen from the lawn, showing the relatively small gap between the roof and the ground. The image has been adjusted to match the scale of the rendering above as closely as possible. Click for the original version. Image credit: I.M.A.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The proposed renovations (designed by <a href="http://jp2architects.com">JP2 Architects</a>) improve sight lines from the lawn by raising the entire pavilion roof about 20 feet higher, as shown in the rendering above. (The lower edge of the current roof is only about 23 feet above the ground at the point where the lawn begins, as seen in the above photo.)  The design raises the roof of the stage house even higher, so that it is no longer flush with the main pavilion roof but extends above it. (The permitted height of the stage house is 85 feet, but the current plan has it at just over 74 feet.)  However the stage house roof is still low enough relative to the new roof so that it wil not be visible by audiences on the lawn (as shown in the rendering above and the comparison below). Finally, the design makes the stage house walls vertical, and adds two lightweight roofs to the loge areas.</p>
<p>The raising of the roof will also apparently present an opportunity to address some of the perceived issues surrounding sound levels at Merriweather Post Pavilion For example, having a higher roof will enable speakers to be configured so that sound is directed more down toward the audience than out toward the lawn and beyond.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-roof-comparison-embed.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-roof-comparison-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather Post Pavilion with current and future roofs compared"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The current roof and the planned raised roof of Merriweather Post Pavilion compared. Original image credits: I.M.A. (left) and JP2 Architects (right).</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>So far, so good. The remaining issue is that although the higher stage house cannot be seen from the lawn, it <em>can</em> be seen to some degree from the sides, and will present a considerably higher façade than it does at present. How should this increased height be addressed from a visual point of view?</p>
<p>In the design presented at the Design Advisory Panel meeting, the “architectural concept for the stage house breaks down its scale by introducing a serrated edging in the top tier of the building where cedar paneling transitions into a cementitious paneling.”  The serrated edging was described as echoing the treeline of the surrounding park. The cementitious or cement-like material on the upper part of the stage house exterior walls would then have a lighter color that would blend in with the sky.</p>
<p>This particular feature of the proposed design occasioned the most contentious discussion of the Design Advisory Panel meeting, partly I think because the architectural rendering of the stage house displayed at the meeting made the “cementitious material” look almost blindingly white, in sharp contrast to the cedar paneling below it (which would be the same color as the existing roof). Panel member Mohammad Saleem expressed his concern about the design as presented, and eventually made a motion that the “serrated edge of the stage house be simplified to reduce the height [of the edge] and that the top . . . be some type of gray metal,” and that “instead of [being] serrated, [the edge] be more horizontal and [plain] and simple to fit in the current, natural environment.”</p>
<p>Most of the other members of the panel disagreed with Saleem, apparently because they liked the serrated boundary between the lower and upper halves of the stage house walls and also believed that the wall colors as constructed would be more subtle than on the renderings. In the end Saleem’s motion was voted down by a 4-2 margin.</p>
<p>Though the motion failed, the discussion about the stage house design did highlight an underlying question some might have about the renovation, namely to what extent should the renovated pavilion retain the spare and spartan appearance of the pavilion as originally constructed. For example, in addition to the serrated design proposed for the stage house walls, the design also includes “light hole punch outs . . . introduced throughout the building façade for additional interest”. In other words, instead of being a plain cedar plank surface, the lower parts of the stage house walls would be periodically punctuated by lights of various colors, lending a more festive appearance to the stage house façade.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Should Merriweather Post Pavilion continue to be as plain and unadorned as it was in the past? There are certainly no plans to do anything with the main pavilion roof, the wooden sides of which would be unchanged from their present appearance. That’s fitting since that roof is iconic, even to the point of being incorporated into the Merriweather Post Pavilion logo.</p>
<p>What about the stage house? Should it be instead clad totally in wood panelling in a natural color, similar to the main roof and echoing other venues in wooded settings, like Filene Center at Wolf Trap? At the Design Advisory Panel meeting Jamie Pett of JP2 Architects noted the desire to break up the stage house mass and not have it appear so monolithic. Some of the Panel members noted that this was in fact an entertainment venue, so some playfullness in the architecture was appropriate. Brad Canfield of I.M.A. echoed this, noting that they had originally considered doing an all-wood façade but had concluded that it reminded them of Wolf Trap, and that they didn’t want it to look like Wolf Trap.</p>
<p>It’s not a slamdunk case, but ultimately I’m going to go with Pett, Canfield, and the majority of Design Advisory Panel members on this one. As much as some people might like Merriweather to be “Wolf Trap in Columbia,” it’s not and never will be. Wolf Trap is a national park, the Filene Center is a much more self-consciously elegant and expensive<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup> structure than Merriweather Post Pavilion, and the (subsidized) Wolf Trap programming has much more of a high culture flavor than the unbashedly populist offerings at Merriweather. One Panel member said of Merriweather, “it <em>is</em> an entertainment venue, and we’re in the next century,” and Brad Canfield noted the “quirky” sculptures and other art that I.M.A. had placed throughout the grounds in effort to give the venue a more lively feel.</p>
<p>At the time of its creation Merriweather Post Pavilion was not intended as an architectural masterwork for the ages but rather as a quick and cheap solution to a pressing problem. In the current renovation I believe the goal should be to enhance what Merriweather has evolved into, by making the venue more fun, funky, and functional&mdash;and to add a fourth “f,” to do so in a relatively frugal manner. I think the proposed design for the new Merriweather could be further refined, but its heart is in the right place.</p>
<h2 id="for-further-exploration">For further exploration</h2>
<p>The chapter “Early Buildings: People and Projects” in the book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Creating-New-City-Columbia-Maryland/dp/0964372878"><em>Creating a New City: Columbia, Maryland</em></a> contains an in-depth and entertaining discussion of the construction of Merriweather Post Pavilion, by project manager James Wannemacher. My two-part series on the planned Merriweather Post Pavilion renovations (<a href="/2014/05/26/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-1/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2014/05/27/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-2/">part 2</a>) explains why the renovations are necessary and what is planned to be done; a <a href="/2014/05/30/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-the-schedule/">followup post</a> covers the schedule for the renovations. All three posts contain links to Howard County documents relevant to the renovation effort. The <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442480723&amp;libID=6442480716">Design Advisory Panel meeting summary</a> contains the recommendations by the members at the meeting on September 9, 2015, as well as the text of Mohammad Saleem’s failed motion. The Department of Planning and Zoning <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/workarea//downloadasset.aspx?id=6442480434">Technical Staff Report on FDP-DC-MSW-1A</a> provides additional context on planning regulations affecting the renovation, including the 85-foot height limit for Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Despite a fair amount of online searching I was unable to turn up any information about Lief.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>I can’t recall whether there would be actual lights in the stage house walls, or whether these would be small clear windows allowing the stage lighting to shine through to the outside. Either way the visual effect would be similar.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>According to a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1982/04/10/rebuilding-cost-at-wolf-trap-set-at-175-million/047239a1-47af-42c1-b819-77fb4d9f5cb4/"><em>Washington Post</em> story</a>, Catherine Filene Shouse donated $2.3 million to build Wolf Trap and the Filene Center (over $13 million today), and then after the <a href="http://www.wolftrap.org/about/venues/filene-center/filene-center-fire.aspx">amphitheater burned down</a> in 1982 helped raise another $18 million or so (over $40 million today) to rebuild it.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Chrysalis and Its Cousins</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/09/11/the-chrysalis-and-its-cousins/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 11 Sep 2015 23:23:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/09/11/the-chrysalis-and-its-cousins/</guid>
      <description>As construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater begins, I look again at the structure and its architect.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/chrysalis-rendering-front-view.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chrysalis-rendering-front-view-embed.jpg"
         alt="Chrysalis structural model"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Architectural rendering of the Chrysalis amphitheater to be constructed in Columbia, Maryland. Click for a higher-resolution version. Image © 2015 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: As construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater begins, I look again at the structure and its architect.</em></p>
<p>Tomorrow is the <a href="http://inartrust.org/chrysalis-groundbreaking">groundbreaking ceremony</a> for the Chrysalis amphitheater, the first element of the Inner Arbor plan to be constructed as part of the planned Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods. In the coming weeks and months I hope to be able to go into more detail about the Chrysalis and its construction, but for now I thought it would be nice to both summarize the current state of the Chrysalis and discuss where it stands in the overall body of work by its designer, Marc Fornes, and his firm <a href="http://theverymany.com">THEVERYMANY</a>.</p>
<p>The overall form of the Chrysalis has not changed since the <a href="/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/">very first post</a> I devoted to it, but the exact way it’s put together has been refined since then. As I noted in my <a href="/2014/02/25/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-9-piecing-together-the-chrysalis/">second article</a> on the Chrysalis, its surface is created using a technique employed by Fornes in his other work: a curved surface is generated by computer and then instantiated by riveting together thin plates cut from flat sheets of the chosen material (in this case aluminum). The individual plates are each painted a given color, and the juxtaposition of plates within the overall structure then produces its final appearance. As can be seen in the picture above, the individual plates are relatively small (perhaps a square meter or two in the case of the Chrysalis), so creating the entire Chrysalis surface will require at least a thousand of them (in my estimation).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/willow-edmonton-alberta.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/willow-edmonton-alberta-embed.jpg"
         alt="Vaulted Willow sculpture"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>“Vaulted Willow” public sculpture in Borden Park, Edmonton, Alberta. Click for a higher-resolution version. Image © 2015 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Chrysalis is to my knowledge the largest structure Fornes has designed to date, and as such presents challenges beyond his earlier designs. Compare it for example to “<a href="http://theverymany.com/public-art/11-edmonton/">Vaulted Willow</a>” (more informally known as the Willow), a public sculpture in Borden Park in Edmonton, Alberta. Vaulted Willow is a relatively small structure at about 20 feet tall (note the person standing under it in the picture). It is not designed to bear any weight other than itself, and thus the surface of riveted plates can be self-supporting with no other associated structural framework required.</p>
<p>If you look closely you can see that the plates in Vaulted Willow are perforated, so people standing inside it get a variegated visual experience looking up at the sky. The “legs” of the structure are concave on the inside, so you can stand in them; from some of the pictures it looks to be a popular place for children to play hide and seek. (Not surprising perhaps&mdash;<a href="http://everydaytourist.ca/blog/2014/8/7/edmonton-borden-art-park">one person wrote</a> that Vaulted Willow “had a dream-like quality to it inside and out, like something from a children’s fairy tale.”)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/over-path-san-antonio.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/over-path-san-antonio-embed.jpg"
         alt="Over Path sculpture"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>“Over Path” public sculpture planned in Woodlawn Lake Park in San Antonio, Texas. Click for a higher-resolution version. Image © 2015 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>In contrast the planned “<a href="http://theverymany.com/public-art/13-san-antonio/">Over Path</a>” public sculpture in San Antonio is a more “spidery” structure; at 20 feet its height is similar to that of Vaulted Willow but it extends over a much larger area. Note the differing construction technique; although Over Path is also constructed out of thin metal panels, rather than simply being overlapped the panels are bent and then joined together so that parts of the panels stick out to create a spine-like form. Some parts of the panels are perforated and some are not, so the overall surface offers a pleasing contrast.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/argeles-sur-mer-amphitheater.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/argeles-sur-mer-amphitheater-embed.jpg"
         alt="Argeles-Sur-Mer amphitheater"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Amphitheater at Lycée Christian Bourquin in Argelès-sur-Mer, France. Image © 2015 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>A larger Fornes design is a structure (almost a cross between a large sculpture and a small amphitheater) recently constructed for <a href="https://www.lyc-bourquin-argeles.ac-montpellier.fr/en">Lycée Christian Bourquin</a>, a new school in Argelès-sur-Mer, France.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  I don’t have exact dimensions for it, but it appears to be at least 25 feet high, large enough to support small-scale performances but still light enough to not require a supporting frame. Note that, like Over Path, the surface is constructed using what appears to be a somewhat different technique than the overlapped riveted plates used in Vaulted Willow and the Chrysalis. (See <a href="http://theverymany.com">THEVERYMANY’s web site</a> for more pictures showing this.)</p>
<p>The Argelès-sur-Mer structure can be thought of as the little brother of the Chrysalis. The Chrysalis is considerably larger, and as a full performance stage must support lighting rigs and speaker stacks not found in its smaller and lighter sibling.  Unlike the Argelès-sur-Mer structure the Chrysalis is also designed to keep rain off the performers or the audience (when seating is provided on the stage itself), so its surface is solid rather than perforated, and hence relatively heavier. The combination of these factors necessitates providing a supporting framework under the outer shell of the Chrysalis, as seen in the above graphic.</p>
<p>Altogether the Chrysalis occupies a special place in Fornes’s body of work, as (to my knowledge) it’s the first time he’s taken his design and manufacturing techniques and applied them to a truly large-scale commission. In so doing I think there are both losses and gains: The sheer size of the Chrysalis means that it does not have the same human scale of pieces like Vaulted Willow, and the need to support theatrical equipment and protect it and the performers from the weather means that it does not have the same degree of lightness and delicacy found in Over Path and the Argelès-sur-Mer structure. However the Chrysalis is still considerably lighter and more graceful in form than typical conventional amphitheaters, and will provide both an attractive and functional performance space for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>I’ve <a href="/2014/06/30/chrysalis-designer-wins-world-architecture-news-21-for-21-award/">previously mentioned</a> that Marc Fornes is a very promising young architect, and bids fair to become a major one. In the coming years I anticipate he and his firm further refining his innovative techniques and becoming more skilled in applying them to architectural structures well beyond the sculptures, installations, and experimental pieces of his early career. I’m thus sure we will see works from him even better than the Chrysalis, but at the same time we have the satisfaction of having one of his first major structures almost in our very backyards. Please join me and others tomorrow morning at 10 am to help celebrate the beginning of its construction.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Fornes uses the word “ciselled” in conjunction with Over Path, presumably from the French “ciselé” or “chiseled,” as in <a href="http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/photo/italy-florentine-chiseled-velvet-with-high-res-stock-photography/119707761">chiseled velvet</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Lycée Christian Bourquin is what we in the US would call a “voc-tech” school, though one with a higher standard of architecture than its US equivalents. By coincidence its official opening was earlier today.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>This blog is moving to civilityandtruth.com</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/09/07/this-blog-is-moving-to-civilityandtruth-com/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 07 Sep 2015 17:39:17 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/09/07/this-blog-is-moving-to-civilityandtruth-com/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;tl;dr: My blog is moving to civilityandtruth.com.  Update your bookmarks and news readers!&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After a fair amount of fiddling about I’m renaming my personal blog and moving to a new domain.  From now on you can access the blog at &lt;a href=&#34;https://civilityandtruth.com&#34;&gt;https://civilityandtruth.com&lt;/a&gt; (note the “https” rather than “http”).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You can read more about the changes in my &lt;a href=&#34;https://civilityandtruth.com/2015/09/07/welcome-to-civility-and-truth/&#34;&gt;first post&lt;/a&gt; at the new blog.  Briefly, I wanted to separate the blog from my personal domain frankhecker.com and have more control over the technology behind the blog, including eliminating the user tracking done by WordPress.com and providing better support for posts that include programming code and mathematical notation.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tl;dr: My blog is moving to civilityandtruth.com.  Update your bookmarks and news readers!</p>
<p>After a fair amount of fiddling about I’m renaming my personal blog and moving to a new domain.  From now on you can access the blog at <a href="https://civilityandtruth.com">https://civilityandtruth.com</a> (note the “https” rather than “http”).</p>
<p>You can read more about the changes in my <a href="https://civilityandtruth.com/2015/09/07/welcome-to-civility-and-truth/">first post</a> at the new blog.  Briefly, I wanted to separate the blog from my personal domain frankhecker.com and have more control over the technology behind the blog, including eliminating the user tracking done by WordPress.com and providing better support for posts that include programming code and mathematical notation.</p>
<p>I have moved all of my old blog posts from frankhecker.com to civilityandtruth.com, although some of the older ones have minor formatting glitches I have yet to correct.  For now you can access old posts at the frankhecker.com URLs, but sometime in October (once I finish fixing any formatting problems) I will have all URLs pointing to frankhecker.com posts automatically redirected to the posts on civilityandtruth.com.  The bottom line is that if you have linked to any of my old frankhecker.com posts those links should continue to work both now and in the future.</p>
<p>However if you use news reader software (e.g., NetNewsWire) or a news reader service (e.g., Feedly) to read my blog posts then you should reconfigure your software or service to use <a href="https://civilityandtruth.com/feed.xml">https://civilityandtruth.com/feed.xml</a> as the feed URL for the blog.  I may be able to redirect previous feed URLs, but I cannot guarantee this will work in all cases.</p>
<p>Finally, an important note: The new blog does <em>not</em> support comments (for a number of reasons); instead I’m expecting people to comment on Facebook or Twitter, or just to send me email.  If you really don’t like this and would much prefer to comment directly on blog posts, drop me a line (or post a comment below) and I’ll consider changing my decision.</p>
<p>Thanks to all of you who have read my blog over the years; see you at civilityandtruth.com!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Welcome to Civility and Truth</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/09/07/welcome-to-civility-and-truth/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 07 Sep 2015 21:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/09/07/welcome-to-civility-and-truth/</guid>
      <description>Update 2021/06/19: This post is now obsolete.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: This post is now obsolete.</em></p>
<p>Update 2021/06/19: I decided to go back to using my personal domain frankhecker.com as the main domain for my blog. However links to civilityandtruth.com should still work, and will be redirected to frankhecker.com.</p>
<p>It’s been almost four months since I last posted something on my blog. I’m sure at least one or two of my few long-time readers have been wondering if I was ever going to post again. Fear not, the hiatus is officially over!</p>
<p>Most of that time was taken by my generally goofing off (not having any real motivation to write). However a good part of it I spent reworking the blog. Today is the official relaunch.</p>
<p>What’s changed? First is the name. I’ve always felt it was somewhat lame to use my own name as the name for my blog, but I couldn’t think of a good alternative. “Civility and truth” was part of the tagline for my old blog, and I finally decided to promote it to be the actual name of the blog itself. See the “<a href="/about">about this blog</a>” page for the story behind the new name.</p>
<p>With the name change comes a change to the URL: The blog is now officially accessible at <a href="https://civilityandtruth.com/">https://civilityandtruth.com</a> (note the “https” at the front). If you are using a news reader service (e.g., <a href="http://feedly.com/i/welcome">Feedly</a> or <a href="http://newsblur.com/about">NewsBlur</a>) then you should add the <em>Civility and Truth</em> news feed using the URL <a href="https://civilityandtruth.com/feed.xml">https://civilityandtruth.com/feed.xml</a> (an Atom format feed, in case you’re curious).</p>
<p>If you have previously linked to my old blog at <a href="https://frankhecker.com/">frankhecker.com</a>, never fear: Sometime in the next month or so I will reconfigure my old blog so that all links to old blog posts get automatically redirected to the corresponding posts at <em>Civility and Truth</em>. At that time I’ll convert the frankhecker.com site to be a simple landing page linking to my various blogs and social media presences.</p>
<p>One major change is in the appearance of the site and the technology behind it.  I’ll spare you all the technical details (see the “<a href="/about">about this blog</a>” page for that), but the result is that the site should load faster and look nicer on smartphones and tablets, you should never see an advertisement or other intrusive third-party content, and (as much as I can arrange) your browsing activity on the blog will not be tracked and monetized by third parties.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>A final and potentially controversial change is that I decided to not provide a way to post comments directly to the blog. I thought long and hard about this: I personally like commenting on blogs, but I got very few comments on my own blog, and many of those were spam that I had to delete. Providing my own commenting system on a self-hosted blog would be far from trivial in terms of dealing with spam and other security issues, and I’d rather not use a third-party service like <a href="https://publishers.disqus.com/">Disqus</a> whose revenue model depends at least in part on user tracking.</p>
<p>For now I’ve decided to direct people to post comments on Facebook or Twitter (where I will post notices of new blog posts) or to email them directly to me. If I get particularly interesting and worthwhile comments through these channels I may update blog posts to summarize and quote from such comments. If you’d really <em>really</em> rather be able to comment directly then please let me know and I will consider adding Disqus commenting with an <a href="https://www.afterpad.com/disqus-to-start-tracking-users-for-targeted-ads">opt-out for user tracking</a>.</p>
<p>What hasn’t changed? I will continue to focus on issues relevant to Howard County and Maryland, with an emphasis on in-depth analysis and minimal snarkiness and partisanship.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> I’ll continue to supplement Howard-centric posts with more general commentary on public affairs, combined with whatever else strikes my fancy.</p>
<p>I’ve learned through bitter experience that I am not a daily blogger, or even necessarily a weekly one. My goal going forward is to post a new item at least once every two weeks, typically on Saturday morning for your weekend reading pleasure. Thanks to all of you who’ve read my blog over the past few years; I hope you enjoy this new incarnation of it!</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>There are three exceptions to the “no tracking” policy. Two of them (using Google fonts and the MathJax code for mathematical notation) are relatively minor, though I will look into ways to self-host this material. The third (embedded video and audio) is unavoidable due to the nature of embedding third-party content, but is confined to only a few posts.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>One advantage of the new blog format is that it will be much easier for me to include data-based analyses with graphs and charts.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Get your county government data at the OpenHoward portal</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/05/11/get-your-county-government-data-at-the-openhoward-portal/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 11 May 2015 08:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/05/11/get-your-county-government-data-at-the-openhoward-portal/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;tl;dr: Howard County government ups its game in providing data with a new web site opendata.howardcountymd.gov.  Next stop, HoCoStat?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I’ve &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2015/01/19/howard-county-government-by-the-numbers/&#34; title=&#34;Howard County government by the numbers&#34;&gt;previously written&lt;/a&gt; about Howard County’s initial foray into publishing government data, the &lt;a href=&#34;https://data.howardcountymd.gov&#34;&gt;data.howardcountymd.gov&lt;/a&gt; web site created by the Howard County GIS division.  As &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountymd.gov/News050815.htm&#34; title=&#34;Executive Kittleman launches open data portal to increase government transparency&#34;&gt;announced by the county&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-ho-cf-open-howard-story.html&#34; title=&#34;Howard launches government transparency site&#34;&gt;reported by Amanda Yeager at the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, Howard County has launched a new site &lt;a href=&#34;https://opendata.howardcountymd.gov&#34;&gt;opendata.howardcountymd.gov&lt;/a&gt; to provide access to government data.  This new site, also known as the OpenHoward portal,&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt; can be considered as a concrete implementation of open data practices mandated by the Howard County Council (see &lt;a href=&#34;https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=839&#34;&gt;Council Bill 32-2014&lt;/a&gt;) and as a down payment on County Executive Allan Kittleman’s &lt;a href=&#34;https://web.archive.org/web/20141013202423/http://kittleman.com/hocostat/&#34; title=&#34;HoCoStat: It’s Time for Citizens to Have a Platform to Hold Government Accountable&#34;&gt;campaign promise&lt;/a&gt; to create an automated system (“HoCoStat”) to “help government increase responsiveness, improve efficiency and heighten accountability.”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: Howard County government ups its game in providing data with a new web site opendata.howardcountymd.gov.  Next stop, HoCoStat?</em></p>
<p>I’ve <a href="/2015/01/19/howard-county-government-by-the-numbers/" title="Howard County government by the numbers">previously written</a> about Howard County’s initial foray into publishing government data, the <a href="https://data.howardcountymd.gov">data.howardcountymd.gov</a> web site created by the Howard County GIS division.  As <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/News050815.htm" title="Executive Kittleman launches open data portal to increase government transparency">announced by the county</a> and <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-ho-cf-open-howard-story.html" title="Howard launches government transparency site">reported by Amanda Yeager at the <em>Baltimore Sun</em></a>, Howard County has launched a new site <a href="https://opendata.howardcountymd.gov">opendata.howardcountymd.gov</a> to provide access to government data.  This new site, also known as the OpenHoward portal,<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> can be considered as a concrete implementation of open data practices mandated by the Howard County Council (see <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=839">Council Bill 32-2014</a>) and as a down payment on County Executive Allan Kittleman’s <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141013202423/http://kittleman.com/hocostat/" title="HoCoStat: It’s Time for Citizens to Have a Platform to Hold Government Accountable">campaign promise</a> to create an automated system (“HoCoStat”) to “help government increase responsiveness, improve efficiency and heighten accountability.”</p>
<p>But enough marketing speak, what is this thing really?  Briefly, the opendata.howardcountymd.gov site, like the original data.howardcountymd.gov site, is a web site that allows you to view and download various datasets relating to Howard County government activities and Howard County in general.  However in other respects the new OpenHoward site goes well beyond what the previous site offers.  First, the new site includes many types of data not previously available on the older site, including (to take but two examples) datasets relating to county budgets and police reports.</p>
<p>Second, the new site has a search facility that is extremely handy when trying to find data and datasets of interest.  For example, since the renovation of Merriweather Post Pavilion has been in the news I decided to <a href="https://opendata.howardcountymd.gov/en/browse?q=+merriweather">search for “Merriweather”</a>.  The search returned (among other things) datasets and records relating to police reports, reports from the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/tellhoco.htm">Tell HoCo</a> web site and mobile app used to report potholes, broken street lamps, and other problems, and a list of payments the county made relating to Wine in the Woods.  I also tried searching for the name of the street I live on, and got a similar mix of results.  I predict that this will be a popular use of the site.</p>
<p>Finally, the new site offers an <a href="https://opendata.howardcountymd.gov/developers" title="Developer Resources">application programming interface</a> (API) by which independent developers can create applications that access the data in real-time.  Most people won’t care about this, but (among other things) it offers local Howard County businesses and motivated individuals a way to create their own applications to add value to the underlying county data.</p>
<p>The opendata.howardcountymd.gov site was not built from scratch, but was instead deployed using the online service provided by <a href="http://www.socrata.com">Socrata</a>, a Seattle-based private company specializing in helping governments to implement open data initiatives.  Socrata’s is a “cloud-based” or “software as a service” (SaaS) offering, meaning that Howard County did not purchase software and hardware to run the site, but instead pays a ongoing subscription fee to host its data on Socrata’s servers running Socrata’s software.  We’ll see in future exactly how much Howard County is paying Socrata for this service (since presumably it will show up in the “Payments to Vendors” database), but based on an <a href="https://thomaslevine.com/!/socrata-products/" title="Semi-open data about pricing of open data">independent analysis of Socrata pricing</a> it’s likely that the cost to the county is on the order of several thousand dollars per month.</p>
<p>That may sound like a lot, but you have to compare it to the fully-burdened cost (i.e., including salaries, heath care, and pensions) of having Howard County employees build the site, or the cost of having a contractor develop a custom site.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  Socrata appears to be a market leader in the open data space, is <a href="http://www.socrata.com/newsroom-article/socrata-continues-to-catapult-data-driven-government-forward-with-robust-q1-2015-results/" title="Socrata Continues to Catapult Data-Driven Government Forward with Robust Q1 2015 Results">growing rapidly</a>, and has a <a href="http://www.govtech.com/data/Open-Data-Goes-Mainstream-Accelerates-Success-for-Socrata.html" title="Open Data Goes Mainstream, Accelerates Success for Socrata">coherent vision</a> for future product offerings.  Socrata also has other customers in Maryland at both the state and local levels, with Socrata powering the <a href="https://data.maryland.gov">Open Data Portal</a> used in the <a href="http://www.statestat.maryland.gov">StateStat</a> system, as well as open data portals and related applications for <a href="https://data.baltimorecity.gov">Baltimore City</a> and <a href="https://data.montgomerycountymd.gov">Montgomery County</a>.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>In general I think going with Socrata was a good decision for the county.  The site looks pretty functional from the point of view of both beginners and more advanced users, Socrata appears to have good mechanisms for getting new datasets into their system, and the provision of an API is a plus for advanced usage.  Plus Socrata also has a separate <a href="http://www.socrata.com/products/open-performance-govstat/">Open Performance (GovStat)</a> product that looks as if it would be a good base on which to build the HoCoStat system.</p>
<p>In comparison to the pluses my concerns about OpenHoward thus far are relatively minor.  First, the site could use more datasets, and more data in existing datasets.  (For example, there’s no police or fire and rescue data for 2015.)  However the press release is upfront about this being a “beta” site at present, so presumably more data is on the way.  One major potential lack is data on Howard County schools; I presume the Board of Education and Superintendent Foose would need to cooperate to get that done, and it’s an open question as to whether such cooperation will be forthcoming.</p>
<p>Second, I think the conditions for access to the site and its data need to be spelled out a bit more clearly.  The original County Council bill CB32-2014 stated that “All accessible data . . . shall be made available without copyright, patent, trademark, or trade secret, or similar regulation other than reasonable privacy, security, and privilege restrictions.” In other words, all data published on the site is presumably in the public domain with no restrictions on its use.  However it would be nice if that could be spelled out more explicitly.  The terms of use for the API are somewhat unclear as well: There’s a basic level of API access available by default, and more intensive usage is possible by registering and getting an “application token.”  These are both provided at no charge, but it’s not clear whether there is some level or type of API access that would incur a charge to the application developer or to application users.  Again, this is worth spelling out.</p>
<p>Finally, what will happen to the existing data.howardcountymd.gov site?  Will its data be folded into the OpenHoward portal and the original site decommissioned, or will it continue to operate?  I confess to a personal interest in this, since I’ve previously published <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/">analyses</a> that pull datasets from the older site, and if the old site goes away I’d like the web links I used to be redirected to the new site.</p>
<p>Leaving these relatively minor concerns aside, overall the launch of the OpenHoward portal is a very welcome event, and I’m looking forward to see how it and the larger HoCoStat initiatives evolve.  Our thanks should go to all those who made this possible, including to Greg Fox, Jen Terrasa, and the other members of the Howard County Council for pushing Howard County to provide open accessible data, to Allan Kittleman for his work thus far to fulfill his campaign pledges around open access, and, most importantly, to those who did the real work, Chris Merdon’s staff in the Department of Technology and Communication Services.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Although both the county press release and the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> article reference the OpenHoward name, the actual web site doesn’t use that name.  Maybe they’re still finalizing the logo and related branding?&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Based on the figures on page 190 of the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/Budget2016.pdf">Howard County FY2016 proposed operating budget</a> [PDF], personnel costs for the Department of Technology and Communication Services (the county’s IT department) appear to be almost $100,000 per employee on average.  So a hypothetical subscription fee of $8,000 a month would be equivalent to hiring one new employee.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The Maryland connection goes beyond what I mentioned: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pub/beth-blauer/53/838/10">Beth Blauer</a>, who headed up the Maryland StateStat project, subsequently worked at Socrata for a couple of years before leaving to head up the <a href="http://hub.jhu.edu/2015/04/20/what-works-cities">Center for Government Excellence</a> at John Hopkins University.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Crescent development by the numbers</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/03/22/the-crescent-development-by-the-numbers/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2015 12:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/03/22/the-crescent-development-by-the-numbers/</guid>
      <description>The Crescent development in downtown Columbia is going to be a (very) big deal.</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/2015-03-22-the-crescent-development-by-the-numbers-figure-1.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/2015-03-22-the-crescent-development-by-the-numbers-figure-1-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rendering of proposed Crescent development"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of proposed Crescent development in downtown Columbia. Click for higher-resolution version. Image © 2014 Howard Hughes Corporation; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>The Crescent development in downtown Columbia is going to be a (very) big deal.</em></p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-crescent-property-planning-board-story.html">reported by Amanda Yeager in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em></a>, the Howard County Planning Board recently approved FDP-DC-Crescent-1, the final development plan for phase 1 of the Crescent neighborhood of downtown Columbia, a development of the <a href="http://howardhughes.com/">Howard Hughes Corporation</a>.  Unfortunately due to family issues I was not able to attend the Planning Board meeting and see for myself the presentations of the plan.  However I did find and review copies of the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442478703&amp;libID=6442478696">Department of Planning and Zoning staff report</a> [PDF], <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160225181426/http://www.co.ho.md.us/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=6442478431">the final development plan itself</a> [PDF], and the accompanying <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160225181353/http://www.co.ho.md.us/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=6442478432">neighborhood concept plan</a> [PDF].  For anyone interested I here briefly review what’s going on with the development.  (For additional background see my post from a year ago, “<a href="/2014/04/06/the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases/">The Crescent development in downtown Columbia: Areas and phases</a>,” although a lot of the information in that post is now out of date.)</p>
<p>In Howard County planning terminology a “final development plan” is not really the final plan; that role is filled by the “site development plan.”  The final development plan contains proposed boundaries for phase 1 of the Crescent development, intended uses for the various parcels and associated square footages and building heights, and other information relevant to the plan.  It does <em>not</em> contain detailed plans of the actual buildings to be built.  However just the raw numbers themselves are interesting and informative.  To quote the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The approved outline proposes 2,300 residences; a 250-room hotel; 1.475 million square feet of office space; 313,000 square feet of retail and 225,000 square feet of civic and cultural uses spread throughout four development areas on the property.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/2015-03-22-the-crescent-development-by-the-numbers-figure-2.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/2015-03-22-the-crescent-development-by-the-numbers-figure-2-embed.png"
         alt="A map of the parcels and lots comprising the parts of the Crescent neighborhood covered by FDP-DC-Crescent-1."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A map of the parcels and lots comprising the parts of the Crescent neighborhood covered by FDP-DC-Crescent-1.  Click for higher-resolution version.  Image taken from page 3 of FDP-DC-Crescent-1, “Final Development Plan, Downtown Columbia, Crescent Neighborhood Phase 1”.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The four development areas are known (rather unimaginatively) as Areas 1, 2, 3, and 4, with locations and proposed uses as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li>Area 1 includes Parcels A and B on the map shown, in the northwest corner of the Crescent development near the intersection of Broken Land Parkway and Little Patuxent Parkway.  It is intended for office use along with a hotel, with some retail and restaurant space.</li>
<li>Area 2 includes Parcel C on the map, south of Area 1 on the east side of Broken Land Parkway.  It is intended for mixed office and residential uses, with some retail and restaurant space.</li>
<li>Area 3 includes Parcel D on the map, south of Merriweather Post Pavilion and north of Broken Land Parkway.  It is intended as the main “downtown” of the Crescent development, with office and residential uses, a much larger allotment of retail and restaurant space, and cultural and community facilities.</li>
<li>Area 4 includes Parcel E on the map, east of Area 1 just south of Little Patuxent Parkway.  It is intended primarily for office use, with a small amount of retail and restaurant space.</li>
</ul>
<p>There is also a significant amount of space that will be left undeveloped , including Lots 1, 2, and 3 on the map shown.  These will serve as natural open space for the project, and can be considered extensions of the western and southern portions of Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>The table below summarizes all of the uses proposed for Areas 1 through 4, including the associated square footage and related details (from page 1 of FDP-DC-Crescent-1).</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Area</th>
          <th>Use</th>
          <th>Planned</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>Area 1 (Parcels A and B)</td>
          <td>Office</td>
          <td>600,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Retail/Restaurant</td>
          <td>25,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Hotel</td>
          <td>250 rooms</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Area 2 (Parcel C)</td>
          <td>Office</td>
          <td>300,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Retail/Restaurant</td>
          <td>30,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Residential</td>
          <td>500 units</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Area 3 (Parcel D)</td>
          <td>Office</td>
          <td>400,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Retail/Restaurant</td>
          <td>252,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Residential</td>
          <td>1800 units</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Cultural/Community</td>
          <td>225,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Area 4 (Parcel E)</td>
          <td>Office</td>
          <td>175,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Retail/Restaurant</td>
          <td>6,500 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>All areas</td>
          <td></td>
          <td></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Office</td>
          <td>1,475,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Retail/Restaurant</td>
          <td>313,500 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Residential</td>
          <td>2,714,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Hotel</td>
          <td>150,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>Cultural/Community</td>
          <td>225,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>All uses</td>
          <td>4,877,500 SF</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>The final development plan does not describe the exact nature of the 225,000 SF of “Cultural/Community” space in Area 3.  However in the pre-submission meeting Howard Hughes representatives discussed building in Area 3 a new Central Branch library (100,000 SF), a conference center (50,000 SF), an aquatic center (50,000 SF), and an indoor concert hall (25,000 SF).</p>
<p>In the pre-submission meeting Howard Hughes representatives also discussed locating all 2,300 residential units in Area 3 along with the 250-room hotel; no office space was planned for Area 3.  The final development plan moves the hotel from Area 3 into Area 1, moves 500 residential units from Area 3 to Area 2, and puts 400,000 SF of office space into Area 3.</p>
<p>One major omission in the final development plan (really, <em>the</em> major omission) is a detailed discussion of parking.  The slides presented in the pre-submission meeting contained detailed information on the number of parking spaces to be provided in each area through either surface parking lots or parking garages (which would eventually replace all the surface lots).  None of that is in the final development plan.  Apparently the exact parking arrangements will be covered in the site development plans to be submitted for each area, including proposals for how to compensate for the loss of the current gravel lots used for events at Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>Overall the Crescent development will make a major impact on downtown Columbia and Howard County overall.  One good comparison is to look at Reston, Virginia, the other major planned community in the Washington/Baltimore area, and Reston Town Center, which is currently <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/breaking_ground/2014/06/high-five-for-boston-properties-latest-reston-town.html">undergoing its final commercial buildout</a> within its 84-acre core.  Based on the figures in the <a href="http://www.cbre.us/o/tysonscorner/AssetLibrary/RestonTownCenterFlyer.pdf">Reston Town Center marketing brochure</a> [PDF] published by its developer, here’s how Reston Town Center compares to the planned Crescent neighborhood:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th></th>
          <th>Reston Town Center (Present and Planned)</th>
          <th>Crescent (Planned)</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>Total acreage</td>
          <td>84 acres</td>
          <td>68 acres</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Office</td>
          <td>2.017 million SF</td>
          <td>1.475 million SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Retail/Restaurant</td>
          <td>424,077 SF</td>
          <td>313,500 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Residential</td>
          <td>1,998 units</td>
          <td>2,300 units</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Hotel</td>
          <td>518 rooms</td>
          <td>250 rooms</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Cultural/Community</td>
          <td>Unknown</td>
          <td>225,000 SF</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Parking Spaces</td>
          <td>9,073 spaces</td>
          <td>TBD</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>When you factor in the office space just north of Little Patuxent Parkway (including <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/blog/real-estate/2014/12/howard-hughes-corp-makes-130m-purchase-in-columbia.html?page=all">700,000 SF purchased by Howard Hughes Corporation from GGP</a>) the downtown Columbia area will have roughly equivalent office space to Reston Town Center.  When you add in the <a href="http://www.ggp.com/properties/mall-properties/the-mall-in-columbia">1.438 million SF of leasable space at the Mall in Columbia</a> the retail space will be significantly larger than in Reston Town Center.  Finally, Reston Town Center has no equivalent to Merriweather Post Pavilion (or, for that matter, to the planned Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods).  (However Reston Town Center does now have access to mass transit via the Metro Silver Line, as well as a much more vibrant office market in the surrounding area.)</p>
<p>As I noted in <a href="/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-4/">discussing the history of Howard County Council redistricting</a>, on the tenth anniversary of Columbia former county commissioner and council member Charles Miller expressed regret that Columbia had ever been created.  Now as Columbia approaches its 50th anniversary, current County Executive Allan Kittleman has promised that he will work to “[attract] large businesses to downtown Columbia so it may truly become the economic engine for our County.”  The Crescent development will be the key to making that happen.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="fb71f661-004"><a href="http://harry4columbia.wordpress.com" title="Harry4Columbia@gmail.com">harry4columbia</a> - 2015-03-22 19:55</h4>
<p>The pre-submission community meeting for Parcel A is scheduled for Thursday, Mar 26, 6:30pm, at Oakland Manor Ballroom (5430 Vantage Point Road). The proposal lists &ldquo;approx 360,000 sq of office/retail space; 1200 +/- space parking garage,&rdquo; 301-421-4024 for more information.</p>
<h4 id="fb71f661-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2015-03-22 20:28</h4>
<p>I forgot to include a note about the pre-submission meeting; thanks for mentioning it! 360,000 SF is only a bit over half of the 600,000 SF approved for Area 1, so I presume there will be a second office building proposed later (along with the hotel).</p>
<h4 id="fb71f661-001"><a href="http://findingmelosingme.blogspot.com" title="4karenLgray@gmail.com">Karen Gray</a> - 2015-04-01 18:35</h4>
<p>Thanks once again, Frank, for a great, readable summary.</p>
<h4 id="fb71f661-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2015-04-01 20:44</h4>
<p>You&rsquo;re quite welcome, glad you found it useful. Unfortunately I didn&rsquo;t get a chance to go to the most recent pre-submission meeting, so I don&rsquo;t have anything to add beyond the published stories.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How politicians see Howard County</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/03/21/how-politicians-see-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 21 Mar 2015 13:00:35 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/03/21/how-politicians-see-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/hocomd-precinct-cartogram.png&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/hocomd-precinct-cartogram-embed.png&#34;
         alt=&#34;Howard County, Maryland precinct cartogram&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;Howard County, Maryland precinct cartogram.  Precinct area is proportional to the number of registered voters as of the 2014 general election.  Click for higher-resolution version.&lt;/p&gt;
        &lt;/figcaption&gt;
&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;tl;dr: The map of Howard County looks very different if you’re looking for votes.  Cartograms help you see like a politician.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are 118 election precincts in Howard County, Maryland, varying both in geographic area and in the number of voters they contain.  Precincts in western Howard County tend to be larger, because the population density in western Howard is lower.  Precincts in more densely populated areas of the county (including Columbia) tend to be smaller.  If we’re interested in how voters behave across the county a conventional map can be misleading because the larger area of western Howard precincts causes us to overrate the importance and impact of those precincts.  (This is similar to the US electoral map being visually dominated by large states like Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas that have fewer voters than small states like Connecticut and Rhode Island.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/hocomd-precinct-cartogram.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hocomd-precinct-cartogram-embed.png"
         alt="Howard County, Maryland precinct cartogram"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Howard County, Maryland precinct cartogram.  Precinct area is proportional to the number of registered voters as of the 2014 general election.  Click for higher-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>tl;dr: The map of Howard County looks very different if you’re looking for votes.  Cartograms help you see like a politician.</em></p>
<p>There are 118 election precincts in Howard County, Maryland, varying both in geographic area and in the number of voters they contain.  Precincts in western Howard County tend to be larger, because the population density in western Howard is lower.  Precincts in more densely populated areas of the county (including Columbia) tend to be smaller.  If we’re interested in how voters behave across the county a conventional map can be misleading because the larger area of western Howard precincts causes us to overrate the importance and impact of those precincts.  (This is similar to the US electoral map being visually dominated by large states like Montana, Wyoming, and the Dakotas that have fewer voters than small states like Connecticut and Rhode Island.)</p>
<p>The figure above is actually a map of Howard County electoral precincts, not as they exist in reality but as they might appear if their size were proportional to the number of voters they contain.  More specifically, this is a <em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartogram">cartogram</a></em> in which the precinct map is distorted to make precinct areas proportional to the number of registered voters in each precinct as of the 2014 general election.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/kittleman-2014-vote-margins-choropleth.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/kittleman-2014-vote-margins-choropleth-embed.png"
         alt="Allan Kittleman’s victory margins by precinct."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Conventional map of Allan Kittleman’s election-day margin of victory in each precinct in the 2014 general election for Howard County Executive.  Click for a higher-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Let’s look at a real-life example of how cartograms can present a more accurate picture of election results.  The next map shows Republican Allan Kittleman’s election-day margin of victory in each precinct in his 2014 race for Howard County Executive against Democrat Courtney Watson.  (The margin of victory is expressed as votes per precinct, not as a percentage.  Thus a value of 100 means that Kittleman received 100 more votes in a precinct on election day than Watson.  The map does not include absentee and early voting results because they are not reported per precinct.)</p>
<p>Each precinct is colored from bright red (large Kittleman margin) to bright blue (large Watson margin) and all shades in between.  (Incidentally, this type of colored map is known as a <em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Choropleth_map">choropleth map</a></em>.)  Since precincts in western Howard County are both large and heavily Republican the conventional map exaggerates the extent of Kittleman’s election-day victory margin over Watson.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/kittleman-2014-vote-margins-cartogram.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/kittleman-2014-vote-margins-cartogram-embed.png"
         alt="Cartogram of Allan Kittleman victory margins by precinct"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Cartogram of Allan Kittleman’s election-day margin of victory in each precinct in the 2014 general election for Howard County Executive.  Click for a higher resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>To address this perceptual problem we can instead represent the exact same data in the form of a cartogram, as seen in the next map.  Here the precincts of western Howard shrink in size to reflect their true contribution to the overall registered voter population.  In particular Howard County Council District 5 now appears to be roughly equal in size to the other districts&mdash;which makes sense since county council redistricting had as one of its goals making the districts contain roughly equal number of voters.  On this map Kittleman’s margin of victory still appears to be significant, but we can better identify precincts (like those in Columbia) in which Watson polled strongly on election day.</p>
<p>Cartograms can be used in place of conventional maps in any context in which each geographic subdivision has associated with it some common variable of interest.  For example, suppose we want to look at elementary school overcrowding in Howard County.  Looking at a conventional map (like the <a href="http://www.hcpss.org/f/schoolplanning/map-es201415.pdf">elementary school attendance area map</a> provided by the Howard County Public School System) we might say, “Gee, there are a lot of elementary schools in eastern Howard.  How could they possibly be overcrowded?” It would make much more sense to show school attendance areas as a cartogram in which the size of each attendance area was proportional to the number of students in that area.  Each of the attendance areas could then be colored according to the extent of overcrowding at that school.</p>
<p>This sounds like a possible future project for me if and when I have time.  Or if anyone out there would like to try this yourself, I’ve provided more detailed information on how to create maps like those shown above.  See my three-part series “Creating Howard County Precinct Cartograms Based on 2014 Registered Voters” (<a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/63528" title="Creating Howard County Precinct Cartograms Based on 2014 Registered Voters, Part 1">part 1</a>, <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/63529" title="Creating Howard County Precinct Cartograms Based on 2014 Registered Voters, Part 2">part 2</a>, and <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/64539" title="Creating Howard County Precinct Cartograms Based on 2014 Registered Voters, Part 3">part 3</a>) and my second three-part series “Allan Kittleman’s Election-Day Victory Margins in the Howard County 2014 General Election” (<a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/60538" title="Allan Kittleman’s Election-Day Victory Margins in the Howard County 2014 General Election, Part 1">part 1</a>, <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/63458" title="Allan Kittleman’s Election-Day Victory Margins in the Howard County 2014 General Election, Part 2">part 2</a>, and <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/63561" title="Allan Kittleman’s Election-Day Victory Margins in the Howard County 2014 General Election, Part 3">part 3</a>).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Useful datasets for Howard County election analysis</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/03/01/useful-datasets-for-howard-county-election-analysis/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 01 Mar 2015 07:00:17 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/03/01/useful-datasets-for-howard-county-election-analysis/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;tl;dr: I release two useful Howard County election datasets in preparation for future posts.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In the coming days and weeks I’ll be posting some analyses of Howard County election results.  Unfortunately the data released by the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountymd.gov/Departments.aspx?id=4294968268&#34;&gt;Howard County Board of Elections&lt;/a&gt; and the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.elections.state.md.us&#34;&gt;Maryland State Board of Elections&lt;/a&gt; is not always in the most useful form for analysis.  In particular I was looking for per-precinct turnout statistics for the 2014 general election in Howard County, along with some way to match up precincts with the county council district of which they’re a part.  That data is available in the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;amp;ItemID=6442477038&amp;amp;libID=6442477030&#34;&gt;2014 general election results per precinct/district&lt;/a&gt; published by the Howard County Board of Elections, but unfortunately that document is a PDF document.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: I release two useful Howard County election datasets in preparation for future posts.</em></p>
<p>In the coming days and weeks I’ll be posting some analyses of Howard County election results.  Unfortunately the data released by the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/Departments.aspx?id=4294968268">Howard County Board of Elections</a> and the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us">Maryland State Board of Elections</a> is not always in the most useful form for analysis.  In particular I was looking for per-precinct turnout statistics for the 2014 general election in Howard County, along with some way to match up precincts with the county council district of which they’re a part.  That data is available in the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442477038&amp;libID=6442477030">2014 general election results per precinct/district</a> published by the Howard County Board of Elections, but unfortunately that document is a PDF document.</p>
<p>PDF files are great for reading by humans, but lousy for reading by machines.  They violate guideline 8 in the <a href="http://sunlightfoundation.com/opendataguidelines/">Open Data Policy Guidelines</a> published by the <a href="http://sunlightfoundation.com/about/">Sunlight Foundation</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>For maximal access, data must be released in formats that lend themselves to easy and efficient reuse via technology.  … This means releasing information in open formats (or “open standards”), in machine-readable formats, that are structured (or machine-processable) appropriately.  … While formats such as HTML and PDF are easily opened for most computer users, these formats are difficult to convert the information to new uses.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Since the data I wanted wasn’t in a format I could use, I manually extracted the data from the PDF document and converted it into a useful format (Comma Separated Value or CSV format) myself.  Then since someone else might find a use for them, I published the files online in a <a href="https://github.com/frankhecker/hocodata/tree/master/datasets">datasets area</a> of my <a href="https://github.com/frankhecker/hocodata">Github hocodata repository</a>.  The first two files are as follows:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/frankhecker/hocodata/master/datasets/hocomd-2014-precinct-council.csv">hocomd-2014-precinct-council.csv</a>.  This dataset maps the 118 Howard County election precincts to the county council districts in which those precincts are included.</li>
<li><a href="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/frankhecker/hocodata/master/datasets/hocomd-2014-general-election-turnout-by-precinct.csv">hocomd-2014-general-election-turnout.csv</a>.  This dataset contains turnout statistics for each of the 118 Howard County precincts in the 2014 general election, including the number of registered voters and ballots cast in each precinct on election day.</li>
</ul>
<p>Stay tuned for some interesting ways to use this data.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="268ded72-001">Walter Carson (wcarson@columbiaunion.net) - 2015-03-01 14:38</h4>
<p>Thank you. As always, of interest. How might such data be used to look at the state legislative districts, if at all? Best wishes. WEC Sent from my iPhone</p>
<h4 id="268ded72-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2015-03-01 19:50</h4>
<p>See my future posts for some ideas on how this data might be used. Probably the first thing I&rsquo;ll do is look at different county council districts to see if there seems to be any real difference in 2014 general election turnout between the districts. A similar analysis could be done for legislative districts, or at least those portions of the districts within Howard County. (A more complete analysis would need data from Carroll County, Baltimore County, etc.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Fun with Howard County building permit data</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/02/16/fun-with-howard-county-building-permit-data/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 16 Feb 2015 18:53:59 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/02/16/fun-with-howard-county-building-permit-data/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;tl;dr: I have fun creating graphs and maps with building permit data from data.howardcountymd.gov.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I’ve &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2015/01/19/howard-county-government-by-the-numbers/&#34; title=&#34;Howard County government by the numbers&#34;&gt;written previously&lt;/a&gt; about the cornucopia of interesting data sets that Howard County government has made available at the &lt;a href=&#34;http://data.howardcountymd.gov/&#34;&gt;data.howardcountymd.gov&lt;/a&gt; site.  I had some spare time over a long weekend and decided to try analyzing some of that data, including making use of the various map files on the site (under the “Spacial Data (GIS)” tab).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: I have fun creating graphs and maps with building permit data from data.howardcountymd.gov.</em></p>
<p>I’ve <a href="/2015/01/19/howard-county-government-by-the-numbers/" title="Howard County government by the numbers">written previously</a> about the cornucopia of interesting data sets that Howard County government has made available at the <a href="http://data.howardcountymd.gov/">data.howardcountymd.gov</a> site.  I had some spare time over a long weekend and decided to try analyzing some of that data, including making use of the various map files on the site (under the “Spacial Data (GIS)” tab).</p>
<p>The particular data set I decided to start with was for building permits issued for residential and commercial construction&mdash;not because I have a burning interest in building permits but because I mentioned this type of data in my last post and thought it would be a relatively easy data set to analyze.  The particular question I decided to look at was how many residential building permits were issued in each zip code within Howard County in 2014&mdash;basically to get a feel for where the most construction was occurring in the county.  (It’s only an approximate measure because some permits cover multiple units.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-residential-permits-2014-graph.png"><img alt="bar chart showing Howard County residential building permits per zip code" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-residential-permits-2014-graph-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>To do the analysis I used the skills and the tools I learned in the courses that are part of the <a href="https://www.coursera.org/specialization/jhudatascience/1?utm_medium=courseDescripTop">Johns Hopkins data science specialization</a> series on Coursera.  (See my <a href="/tag/coursera/">Coursera-related posts</a> for more on my experiences in these classes.)  I won’t go over the process here since I’ve separately published full details on <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker">my RPubs page</a>, with the source code available in <a href="https://github.com/frankhecker/hocodata">my hocodata GitHub repository</a>.</p>
<p>I first created a simple table of the top zip codes for residential permits issued.  This was sort of boring so I won’t reproduce it here; you can find it in the <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/59553">first example analysis</a> I did.  More interesting is the bar chart I created as part of the <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/59591">second example</a>.  It’s clear from the chart that there’s wide variation among Howard County zip codes in terms of residential construction.  The two Ellicott City zip codes combined (21042 and 21043) accounted for the largest fraction of residential building permits in 2014; in contrast there were almost no permits issued for east Columbia (21045).</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-residential-permits-2014-map.png"><img alt="Howard County map showing residential building permits per zip code" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-residential-permits-2014-map-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>However what I really wanted to create was a map showing exactly where permits were being issued across the county.  The Howard County GIS division provides on data.howardcountymd.gov a set of map data for zip codes within Howard County.  After doing a bit of research and experimentation, in <a href="http://rpubs.com/frankhecker/59816">my third example</a> I was able to use this in conjunction with the building permit data to produce a map that is a nice alternative to the bar chart.</p>
<p>I have to stop here and ask the unspoken question: What’s the point of all this?  I’d answer as follows:</p>
<p>First, this shows that releasing government data empowers people to do interesting things with it, especially when combined with free software and easily available online information and training.  Maybe everybody isn’t interested in building permit data or any other individual government data set, but I suspect that there are a fair amount of people out there who are, including small businesses, nonprofit organizations, or just individual activists and interested citizens.</p>
<p>Second, I did all this in a way that is completely reproducible by anyone else.  How often have you seen a graph or map in a newspaper or government report and wondered, where exactly did that data come from?  Wonder no longer: In my examples I start with the raw data as released by Howard County and show all my work in analyzing the data and creating the tables, charts, and maps.</p>
<p>Finally, this is all reusable and adaptable.  For example, suppose you have a better source of data on construction activity, perhaps one that gives the actual numbers of residential units, commercial square footage, and so on.  You can easily plug that modified data into the analysis steps I’ve documented, and create better versions of the charts and maps in my examples.</p>
<p>You can also reuse the overall technical approach for any type of data tied to a geographic area within Howard County.  For example, in addition to zip code areas the data.howardcounty.gov site contains map data for Howard County school districts, election precincts, census tracts, and many other subdivisions of the county.  If you have data sets that are based on those subdivisions (for example, vote totals or turnout percentages for precincts) then you can adapt the code I wrote (all of which is in the public domain) to create your own maps showing how that data varies across the county.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that the data is out there for the picking, as are the tools to make sense of it.  You just need to spend some time learning how to use them or (if you don’t feel up to the task yourself) finding someone who can.  Have fun!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County government by the numbers</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/01/19/howard-county-government-by-the-numbers/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 19 Jan 2015 09:00:00 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/01/19/howard-county-government-by-the-numbers/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;tl;dr: As we wait to hear more about Allan Kittleman’s HoCoStat proposal, you don’t have to wait to download lots of useful county-related data at data.howardcountymd.gov.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;During his (ultimately successful) campaign for Howard County Executive, one of Allan Kittleman’s key proposals was to establish &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-ho-cf-political-notebook-0911-20140911-story.html&#34; title=&#34;Kittleman proposes government accountability program&#34;&gt;HoCoStat&lt;/a&gt;, a program to (in Kittleman’s words), “measure . . . response and process times for various government functions” to help “increase responsiveness, improve efficiency and heighten accountability.”  Kittleman’s administration is in its early days, and nothing much has been heard yet about how and when HoCoStat might be implemented.  (Even the original HoCoStat proposal has disappeared from &lt;a href=&#34;http://kittleman.com&#34;&gt;Kittleman’s web site&lt;/a&gt; as it’s being redesigned, although the Internet archive has a &lt;a href=&#34;https://web.archive.org/web/20141013202423/http://kittleman.com/hocostat/&#34; title=&#34;HoCoStat: It’s Time for Citizens to Have a Platform to Hold Government Accountable&#34;&gt;copy&lt;/a&gt;.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>tl;dr: As we wait to hear more about Allan Kittleman’s HoCoStat proposal, you don’t have to wait to download lots of useful county-related data at data.howardcountymd.gov.</em></p>
<p>During his (ultimately successful) campaign for Howard County Executive, one of Allan Kittleman’s key proposals was to establish <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-ho-cf-political-notebook-0911-20140911-story.html" title="Kittleman proposes government accountability program">HoCoStat</a>, a program to (in Kittleman’s words), “measure . . . response and process times for various government functions” to help “increase responsiveness, improve efficiency and heighten accountability.”  Kittleman’s administration is in its early days, and nothing much has been heard yet about how and when HoCoStat might be implemented.  (Even the original HoCoStat proposal has disappeared from <a href="http://kittleman.com">Kittleman’s web site</a> as it’s being redesigned, although the Internet archive has a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20141013202423/http://kittleman.com/hocostat/" title="HoCoStat: It’s Time for Citizens to Have a Platform to Hold Government Accountable">copy</a>.)</p>
<p>But don’t despair!  While we’re waiting for HoCoStat to make an appearance there’s other Howard County data-related resources we can explore.  In particular, the <a href="https://data.howardcountymd.gov">data.howardcountymd.gov</a> site has a good and growing collection of county-related datasets, many of them tied to county maps&mdash;no surprise, since the site is maintained by the county’s <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/departments.aspx?ID=4294968277">Geographic Information System (GIS) Division</a>.  Part of what makes the site great is that it is <em>not</em> just presenting predefined maps and PDF documents, but also provides the raw data used to create those maps.</p>
<p>For example, suppose you’re interested in building permits issued in Howard County.  At the simplest level you can view an <a href="https://data.howardcountymd.gov/InteractiveMapV3.html?Workspace=IndividualLayer&amp;Layer=general:Permits_View_Building_New&amp;LayerName=Building%20Permits%20(New">interactive map</a>) showing the locations for all such permits; you can click on the icons corresponding to the issued permits and see the exact address, date when the permit was issued, and other information.</p>
<p>But let’s suppose you want to do more in-depth analysis of permits issued: For example, which areas are seeing the most residential or commercial permits issued?  Or, what is the trend for permits issued over time?  The data.howardcountymd.gov site also lets you download the raw data behind the map in a variety of formats, for example in <a href="https://data.howardcountymd.gov/geoserver/ows?service=WFS&amp;version=1.0.0&amp;request=GetFeature&amp;typeName=general:Permits_View_Building_New&amp;outputFormat=csv">CSV format</a> for use with Excel spreadsheets or statistical software like R, <a href="https://data.howardcountymd.gov/geoserver/ows?service=WFS&amp;version=1.0.0&amp;request=GetFeature&amp;typeName=general:Permits_View_Building_New&amp;outputFormat=kml">KML format</a> for use with Google Maps and Google Earth, and several others.  Armed with the relevant data files you can create your own maps and do your own analysis, including combining the Howard County data with data from other sources like US Census data.</p>
<p>All in all the site&mdash;which is still evolving&mdash;is a model for how Howard County government can make useful data available to the Howard County individual and corporate taxpayers who are ultimately paying for county services.  It would be great to see this strategy extended to HoCoStat as well.  For example, when promoting the HoCoStat proposal Allan Kittleman pointed to (among others) Montgomery County’s <a href="http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/countystat/">CountyStat</a> site as a model to emulate.  While CountyStat is very nice, it has the disadvantage that you can’t see the raw data behind the performance indicators.</p>
<p>For example, CountyStat has some summary statistics relating to issuance of building permits: average number of days to issue a residential permit, commercial permits for new construction, or other commercial permits.  But there’s a lot more one might want to know: For example, what’s the variability in the time to issue permits?  Are there some permits that for whatever reason took a really long time to issue?  How does the time to issue permits vary across the county?  Are there particular areas that (for whatever reason) are experiencing greater or lesser delays in getting permits issued?  Having the raw data behind the indicators would permit (no pun intended) interested parties to answer these questions, from commercial developers doing large-scale projects down to a small contractor building a single home.</p>
<p>As I wrote in my previous <a href="/2014/11/04/making-howard-county-government-data-of-value-to-us-all/" title="Making Howard County government data of value to us all">post on Howard County government data initiatives</a>, providing unfettered access to raw data (subject to reasonable concerns relating to individual privacy and corporate confidentiality) is key to making government data useful: It allows the private and civic sectors to exercise their own creativity in using that data, rather than trying to have government anticipate every possible use for it, and also lets the private and civic sectors hold government accountable by enabling them to do their own independent analyses of government data.  It’s great to see what Howard County government (and the GIS Division in particular) has been and is doing to make useful data generally available.  I hope that as the Kittleman administration gets down to work and the HoCoStat program is implemented that that spirit of openness and commitment to serve citizens through government data continues.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The year of blogging sporadically</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2015/01/01/the-year-of-blogging-sporadically/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2015 12:26:02 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2015/01/01/the-year-of-blogging-sporadically/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;tl;dr: Don’t expect many blog posts from me in 2015.  Those I do post will be on micro-local issues like Merriweather Park, with a smattering of other stuff of interest mainly to me.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Most everybody else on the HoCo blogging scene has done an “end of 2014/beginning of 2015” post, and I’ll be no different.  The automatically-generated report on my 2014 blogging is not that informative, so here’s my personal take on what I did in 2014, blogging-related or otherwise, and what I hope to do in 2015:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tl;dr: Don’t expect many blog posts from me in 2015.  Those I do post will be on micro-local issues like Merriweather Park, with a smattering of other stuff of interest mainly to me.</p>
<p>Most everybody else on the HoCo blogging scene has done an “end of 2014/beginning of 2015” post, and I’ll be no different.  The automatically-generated report on my 2014 blogging is not that informative, so here’s my personal take on what I did in 2014, blogging-related or otherwise, and what I hope to do in 2015:</p>
<p>Last year I didn’t quite manage a post per week, but even that was over-stated since several months went by with only one or two posts, or even none at all.  In 2015 job and (especially) family responsibilities will take up the vast majority of my time, and what spare time I have I’ll likely spend on <a href="/?tag=datascience+coursera">learning statistics and “data science”</a> via the Johns Hopkins University offerings on Coursera.  I have a very small core of readers (perhaps a few dozen at most), and I’m afraid you’ll be lucky to get a post a month from me this year.  But enough apologies, here are some things I found interesting or noteworthy in 2014, and hope to blog about in 2015:</p>
<p>Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, and downtown Columbia development in general.  It seems like I’ve been <a href="/tag/innerarbor">writing about the Inner Arbor plan</a> for a long long time, but my first post on it was only a little more than a year ago.  Needless to say I was very happy that the Howard County Planning Board approved the site development plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, and if I possibly can I’ll continue posting about its progress in 2015, including a look at the construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater and a discussion of some of the other park features I haven’t written much about.  I also hope to continue writing about the renovation and other changes at <a href="/tag/merriweatherpostpavilion/">Merriweather Post Pavilion</a> and about the <a href="/?tag=crescent+howardhughes">Crescent development</a>.</p>
<p>Politics, local and otherwise.  One of the interesting things in my 2014 blog traffic report is that my <a href="/2010/09/12/voting-for-the-howard-county-democratic-central-committee/">2010 post on the Howard County Democratic Central Committee candidates</a> is still one of the most popular things on the site; apparently there’s a significant demand for more information about these elections from people who are committed partisans but not tied tightly enough into the local party structures to know who’s who.  Maybe when the next Central Committee elections come around I’ll think about trying to satisfy that demand.</p>
<p>As for my non-blogging political activities, although his candidacy was ultimately unsuccessful I have no regrets at all about supporting <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/">Tom Coale</a>’s run for state delegate using both my blog posts and (much more importantly) my checkbook.  Now that financing national elections is primarily the province of billionaires I’ve decided to focus my future political contributions almost solely on local and (to a lesser extent) state races.  And fortunately it appears that in future Howard County will continue to have a lot of great candidates to donate to.</p>
<p>In non-local politics, over the years I’ve <a href="/tag/libertarianism">posted a fair amount on libertarianism</a> and libertarian ideas.  This is not because I myself am a libertarian, but rather because I consider libertarianism the 21st century equivalent of socialism: an ideology that appeals to intellectuals and populists alike, that (in my opinion) would be unworkable if taken as a whole, but at the same time has some interesting and potentially useful policy ideas considered in isolation.  I have more thoughts on this, and if I have time I’ll put (virtual) pen to paper.</p>
<p>Stuff to watch or read.  I’ve done a few posts in the past about <a href="/tag/anime">anime</a> (i.e., Japanese animated films and TV shows), <a href="/tag/tv">television shows worth watching</a>, as well as people whose blogs or other writings are <a href="/tag/worthreading">worth reading</a>.  I hope to do a few more of those from time to time in 2015.</p>
<p>That’s it for now.  Happy New Year to all my readers!  I hope to be writing to you again soon.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods plans approved</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/21/merriweather-park-at-symphony-woods-plans-approved/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2014 18:55:39 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/21/merriweather-park-at-symphony-woods-plans-approved/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;tl;dr: I testify in support of the plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods and the Planning Board approves it (note: correlation is not causation), Inner Arbor haters gonna hate, and Brad Canfield of Merriweather shocks me.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I was fortunate enough to be able to attend and testify at the Howard County Planning Board meeting last night at which the Board &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-1127-2-20141120-story.html&#34; title=&#34;Howard Planning Board gives green light to Inner Arbor&#34;&gt;unanimously approved&lt;/a&gt; site development plan &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;amp;ItemID=6442476895&amp;amp;libID=6442476887&#34;&gt;SDP-14-073&lt;/a&gt; [PDF] for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, the project otherwise known as the Inner Arbor plan.  Here’s a lightly-edited copy of my testimony:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tl;dr: I testify in support of the plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods and the Planning Board approves it (note: correlation is not causation), Inner Arbor haters gonna hate, and Brad Canfield of Merriweather shocks me.</p>
<p>I was fortunate enough to be able to attend and testify at the Howard County Planning Board meeting last night at which the Board <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-1127-2-20141120-story.html" title="Howard Planning Board gives green light to Inner Arbor">unanimously approved</a> site development plan <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442476895&amp;libID=6442476887">SDP-14-073</a> [PDF] for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, the project otherwise known as the Inner Arbor plan.  Here’s a lightly-edited copy of my testimony:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Good evening.  I’m speaking in support of SDP-14-073.  I previously submitted <a href="/2014/11/06/i-support-the-plan-for-merriweather-park-at-symphony-woods/" title="I support the plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods">written testimony</a> to the Board; tonight I want to comment some more on the plan.</p>
<p>I did not closely follow the Board’s consideration of the final development plan, but since then I’ve read the documents relating to its decision.  I believe the Board made the right call in putting conditions on its approval of that plan.  It’s just common sense: We need a park design that works with the natural landscape rather than against it, and one that’s well integrated with Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>Almost a year ago I attended the pre-submission meeting for the Inner Arbor plan.  At that time I saw a plan that retained elements present in the final development plan but also fully addressed the Board’s conditions.  It featured an extensive pathway system that followed the lay of the land and minimized tree removal, an imaginative alternative to the existing Merriweather fence, and attractive and well-sited shared-use structures.</p>
<p>That design, with some refinements, is in the site development plan you’re considering tonight.  It’s a very attractive design, a design that’s much better than I would have expected given the previous history of proposed projects for Symphony Woods.  The design in SDP-14-073 incorporates the elements of the final development plan except for the fountain, which the Inner Arbor Trust now proposes be built on the Merriweather property.  I understand the reasons for siting the fountain there as part of the Merriweather/Symphony Woods integration.  At the same time I understand why this change might disappoint people for whom constructing a fountain was the primary attraction of the original plan for Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>However I believe that the goal of this multi-year effort is not to put a fountain in Symphony Woods.  The fountain is simply one part of an overall effort to provide a “unique cultural and community amenity” for downtown Columbia, to quote from the Board’s previous decision.  I believe that SDP-14-073 together with the proposed Merriweather Post Pavilion enhancements will meet that goal.  The Board challenged CA to meet the conditions associated with its approval of the final development plan, and create a great park for downtown Columbia.  The Inner Arbor Trust has more than met that challenge.  I strongly urge the Board to approve SDP-14-073.  Thank you.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The Planning Board meeting on November 6 saw <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-planning-board-20141106-story.html" title="Howard Planning Board tables decision on Columbia arts park">proponents of the plan slightly outnumbering opponents</a>;<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> in comparison, last night’s meeting was a landslide, with 16 people in favor and three people speaking in opposition.  Of course this won’t put a rest to the controversy.  In <a href="/2014/05/31/promoting-the-inner-arbor-plan/" title="Promoting the Inner Arbor plan">an earlier post</a> I compared Inner Arbor opponents to “Obamacare” opponents in their exploitation of the issue as a way to stoke outrage among their base.  I don’t expect the Planning Board’s decision will change that dynamic at all.  As with the Affordable Care Act, I’m sure the opposition will continue to pursue any and all means to sabotage the development of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, with yet more contrived legal arguments (thanks go to Bill Woodcock for <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2014/11/alan-klein-fountain-of-misinformation.html" title="Alan Klein: Fountain of Misinformation!">highlighting the latest example</a>), complaints about the process, accusations of defiling Jim Rouse’s legacy, and dire warnings of a “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0">disaster of biblical proportions</a>.”  (I’m only half kidding about the last one; one person testifying last night used language that was almost that extreme.)</p>
<p>However the analogy to the Affordable Care Act fails in a major way: We’re not talking here about a complicated government program where it’s almost comically easy to raise fear, uncertainty, and doubt among those who haven’t closely followed the issue.  It’s a park, with <a href="http://inartrust.org/theplan/" title="The Plan - Inner Arbor Trust">pictures</a> (<a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/1od1rwed2tp52bt/MPSW%20by%20Numbers%20140406.pdf" title="Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods By the Numbers">lots and <em>lots</em> of pictures</a> [187MB PDF]).  It’s pretty easy to understand, and you either like it or you don’t.  As it happens, all of the members of the general public I’ve talked to (for example, <a href="/2014/05/18/talking-about-the-inner-arbor-plan-at-wine-in-the-woods/" title="Talking about the Inner Arbor plan at Wine in the Woods">at Wine in the Woods</a>) have liked it a lot.  Now that the plan is approved and construction on phase 1 can start, more people will be able to see for themselves what Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods is all about, and I think we’ll find that that experience is repeated.</p>
<p>Finally, before this next phase of the Inner Arbor project begins and Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods starts to take shape, some (I hope) last comments on what went on before.  In my year of <a href="/tag/innerarbor/">blogging about the Inner Arbor plan</a> and the associated controversy I have been variously enlightened, delighted, amused, critical, and indignant.  However I have never been shocked until last night, while listening to the testimony of Brad Canfield, director of operations at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  Assuming I’m correctly recollecting his remarks, in talking about the integration of Merriweather and Symphony Woods he mentioned that Cy Paumier and the original design team had never taken the time to talk to people at Merriweather, except for one phone call a few months after the Columbia Association had rejected the original park design in favor of the Inner Arbor concept.</p>
<p>I quite honestly find that to be mind-boggling.  On the one hand you have Merriweather Post Pavilion, the most well-known and best-loved feature of Columbia to the world at large, and a key element in making Howard County an attractive place for businesses and residents.  (I believe it was Dick Story who last night noted that while other jurisdictions promoting economic development have universities to help them stand out from the crowd, Howard County has Merriweather.)  On the other hand you have Symphony Woods, a largely under-used property whose main function over the past 40+ years has been to serve as a surrounding environment and gateway to Merriweather.  If a design team working on a plan for Symphony Woods seemingly doesn’t show any interest whatsoever in working with the Merriweather Post Pavilion operators to figure out ways they could mutually enhance the combination of properties, that speaks volumes to me about that team’s insularity, misplaced priorities, and inability to create a design worthy of what downtown Columbia could become.</p>
<p>Thank goodness there were other people more in touch with the realities of present-day Columbia and Howard County, people who were willing to go out of their way to imagine a better future for Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods, and did the work and took the risks to start us on a path to making that future a reality.  Thank you, everyone, I’m excited to see where we go from here.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The numbers were a bit off because some people nominally listed as opposing the plan didn’t actually speak about the plan itself, but instead complained about various aspects of how the plan came to be (for example, that CA didn’t put the design out to competitive bid).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>I support the plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/06/i-support-the-plan-for-merriweather-park-at-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2014 12:00:51 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/06/i-support-the-plan-for-merriweather-park-at-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;tl;dr: Dear Planning Board: I support SDP-14-073, the site development plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, and you should too.  (signed) Frank&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As previously noted by &lt;a href=&#34;http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2014/11/my-thursday-night-planning-board-testimony.html&#34; title=&#34;My Thursday Night Planning Board Testimony&#34;&gt;Bill Woodcock&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2014/11/seeing-yourself.html&#34; title=&#34;Seeing Yourself&#34;&gt;Julia McCready&lt;/a&gt;, tonight (Thursday, November 6 at 7 pm) is the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;amp;ItemID=6442476915&amp;amp;libID=6442476907&#34;&gt;meeting&lt;/a&gt; [PDF] of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountymd.gov/planning_board.htm&#34;&gt;Howard County Planning Board&lt;/a&gt; to consider (among other things) SDP-14-073, the site development plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, otherwise known as the Inner Arbor plan, as submitted by the &lt;a href=&#34;http://inartrust.org&#34;&gt;Inner Arbor Trust&lt;/a&gt;.  I hope to be able to be at the meeting to express my support of the plan, but just in case I’m not able to do that I also submitted written testimony to the Planning Board earlier today, as follows:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tl;dr: Dear Planning Board: I support SDP-14-073, the site development plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, and you should too.  (signed) Frank</p>
<p>As previously noted by <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2014/11/my-thursday-night-planning-board-testimony.html" title="My Thursday Night Planning Board Testimony">Bill Woodcock</a> and <a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2014/11/seeing-yourself.html" title="Seeing Yourself">Julia McCready</a>, tonight (Thursday, November 6 at 7 pm) is the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442476915&amp;libID=6442476907">meeting</a> [PDF] of the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/planning_board.htm">Howard County Planning Board</a> to consider (among other things) SDP-14-073, the site development plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, otherwise known as the Inner Arbor plan, as submitted by the <a href="http://inartrust.org">Inner Arbor Trust</a>.  I hope to be able to be at the meeting to express my support of the plan, but just in case I’m not able to do that I also submitted written testimony to the Planning Board earlier today, as follows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>To the members of the Howard County Planning Board:</p>
<p>Thank you for the opportunity to comment on SDP-14-073, the site development plan for Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods.  As a longtime independent observer of the work of the Inner Arbor Trust I believe that SDP-14-073 provides a complete and detailed blueprint for a beautiful and functional cultural park.  This blueprint more than fulfills the vision and requirements laid out in the Downtown Columbia Plan and the neighborhood design guidelines.  In particular SDP-14-073 represents a considerable advance over the final development plan FDP-DC-MSW-1 previously reviewed by the Planning Board.  The plan respects the natural landscape of the site and its status as a special place within downtown Columbia, and the various park features display a consistent degree of design excellence, as attested to by the unanimous approval of the Design Advisory Panel and the comments made by its members.</p>
<p>With respect to the conditions put on approval of FDP-DC-MSW-1 by the Planning Board, SDP- 14-073 meets not only the letter of those conditions but their spirit as well.  Not only does the plan minimize tree removal through careful siting of the various park features, it provides an extensive system of meandering paths on which visitors can fully enjoy the natural setting of those features.  In sum, the plan works with the landscape, not against it.</p>
<p>SDP-14-073 also shows the result of the requested coordination regarding integration of the park and its features with Merriweather Post Pavilion, making the overall Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood the “unique cultural and community amenity” referred to in the previous Planning Board decision.  The Chrysalis shared-use amphitheater proposed for Phase 1 will provide a suitable second venue to Merriweather Post Pavilion, the Butterfly guest services building is well-sited to serve visitors to both the pavilion and the Chrysalis (and displays an architectural excellence not found in the existing Merriweather outbuildings), and the Caterpillar “living berm” is an imaginative solution to the problem of controlling access to Merriweather Post Pavilion during events while providing access to the pavilion property during other times.</p>
<p>I’ve previously blogged about the parking situation at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  [See <a href="/2014/03/24/parking-and-the-future-of-merriweather-post-pavilion/" title="Parking and the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion">here</a> and <a href="/2014/03/29/parking-at-venues-comparable-to-merriweather-post-pavilion/" title="Parking at venues comparable to Merriweather Post Pavilion">here</a>.] I agree with the DPZ staff that the parking arrangements proposed with SDP-14-073 are adequate for the various uses detailed.  Although some may be concerned about increased traffic and parking needs associated with the development of Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods, those concerns cannot be fully addressed in the context of the park itself, since to a large degree they arise from joint uses with Merriweather Post Pavilion.  In that regard I recommend the Planning Board carefully review parking proposals submitted with any development plans for the rest of the Merriweather-Symphony Woods neighborhood and (especially) for the Crescent neighborhood.</p>
<p>In conclusion, I strongly urge the Planning Board to approve SDP-14-073, including both phases 1 and 2 and the subsequent phases 3 through 7, subject to further review as noted.  I also urge the Planning Board to adopt the DPZ staff recommendation and allow the access drive from the Merriweather VIP Lot to the Chrysalis amphitheater to extend below the southeastern boundary specified in the final development plan.  Among other things, mandating an alternate routing would be inconsistent with the previous Planning Board conditions relating to minimizing tree removal.  Finally, I urge the Planning Board to refrain from putting any conditions on the site development plan, now or in the future, where such conditions might compromise the integrity of the park design or otherwise result in the park not fulfilling its promise as a unique and valuable cultural and community amenity for the residents of Columbia and Howard County.</p>
<p>Frank Hecker Ellicott City, Maryland</p>
</blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Thank you Tom Coale</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/05/thank-you-tom-coale/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 05 Nov 2014 08:45:43 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/05/thank-you-tom-coale/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;tl;dr: Tom Coale deserves our thanks for showing us the best aspects of politics, in a world in which we so often see the worst.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Dear Tom,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;True to your nature, I see &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2014/11/ill-be-here.html&#34; title=&#34;I’ll be here&#34;&gt;you’ve already blogged about the election results&lt;/a&gt; yesterday and given us your thoughts on what was a hard-fought but ultimately unsuccessful effort in District 9B.  I can’t let your post go without one of my own.  I don’t for a moment regret my endorsement of you, and in particular I don’t regret the investment I made in your campaign through my donations.  I felt they were an excellent investment in a campaign that by all indications was professionally run, focused on issues that matter to the people of Ellicott City, positive in all its aspects, and (most important) featured a candidate who was tireless in reaching out to his potential constituents, listening to their opinions, and promoting a practical vision for governing.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tl;dr: Tom Coale deserves our thanks for showing us the best aspects of politics, in a world in which we so often see the worst.</p>
<p>Dear Tom,</p>
<p>True to your nature, I see <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2014/11/ill-be-here.html" title="I’ll be here">you’ve already blogged about the election results</a> yesterday and given us your thoughts on what was a hard-fought but ultimately unsuccessful effort in District 9B.  I can’t let your post go without one of my own.  I don’t for a moment regret my endorsement of you, and in particular I don’t regret the investment I made in your campaign through my donations.  I felt they were an excellent investment in a campaign that by all indications was professionally run, focused on issues that matter to the people of Ellicott City, positive in all its aspects, and (most important) featured a candidate who was tireless in reaching out to his potential constituents, listening to their opinions, and promoting a practical vision for governing.</p>
<p>Please pardon me while I go a bit meta (in my usual way): As you may or may not know, a lot of libertarians and conservatives are enamored of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_choice">public choice theory</a> and its use of economic theories to explain why politicians behave as they do.  Which is fine as far as it goes, but they often go on to use this as a stick with which to beat advocates of government action, claiming that public choice theory conclusively proves that all politicians are motivated only by their own self-interest, and thus can never and will never act so as to promote the public good.  This, to be frank, is a crock of crap.  It’s simply the flip side of the argument many progressives make, that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_failure">market failures</a> prove that capitalism doesn’t work as advertised, and ultimately is nothing but selfishness and greed incarnate.</p>
<p>What <em>is</em> true is that both democracy and capitalism work best when practiced by people whose personalities and experiences predispose them to have concerns for others beyond themselves and their “tribes.”  Motivated in many ways by self-interest they may be (who would ever run for public office without a fair amount of ambition to provide a spur?), but there are lots of politicians (of all parties) who clearly are moved by a sense of civic duty and genuinely seek to improve the well-being of their constituents (just as there are many businesspeople for whom money is not the be-all and end-all, and who genuinely seek to improve the well-being of their customers).  We in Howard County are blessed to have more than our fair share of such politicians, of whom you are one.  I appreciate all that you have done for this county thus far, and look forward to seeing the fruits of whatever civic activities you may choose to undertake in the future.  Thank you again, and the best of luck in your post-campaign life.</p>
<p>Your supporter and fellow blogger,</p>
<p>Frank</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="4eab9c83-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">Jessie Newburn</a> - 2014-11-05 16:18</h4>
<p>Amen!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Making Howard County government data of value to us all</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/04/making-howard-county-government-data-of-value-to-us-all/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2014 07:00:34 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/04/making-howard-county-government-data-of-value-to-us-all/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;tl;dr: Before Howard County’s next county executive goes off on a high-profile “open government data” initiative, they (and we) should think more about what such a project can and can’t do, and how best to make it successful.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Among their other policy proposals, both candidates for Howard County Executive have proposed new initiatives to make data about the workings of county government more available to residents.  Allan Kittleman has promoted what he calls “&lt;a href=&#34;http://kittleman.com/hocostat/&#34;&gt;HoCoStat&lt;/a&gt;,” a “platform to hold government accountable” that “will link data to long-term impacts” and “measure . . . response and process times for various government functions.” Courtney Watson’s corresponding initiative doesn’t have a catchy name, but her &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.courtneywatson.com/vision&#34;&gt;“open government” vision&lt;/a&gt; includes a promise to “leverage technology to improve and maintain government transparency, efficiency and communication” by creating “an intuitive and interactive web portal that provides public access to information in usable and searchable formats.”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tl;dr: Before Howard County’s next county executive goes off on a high-profile “open government data” initiative, they (and we) should think more about what such a project can and can’t do, and how best to make it successful.</p>
<p>Among their other policy proposals, both candidates for Howard County Executive have proposed new initiatives to make data about the workings of county government more available to residents.  Allan Kittleman has promoted what he calls “<a href="http://kittleman.com/hocostat/">HoCoStat</a>,” a “platform to hold government accountable” that “will link data to long-term impacts” and “measure . . . response and process times for various government functions.” Courtney Watson’s corresponding initiative doesn’t have a catchy name, but her <a href="http://www.courtneywatson.com/vision">“open government” vision</a> includes a promise to “leverage technology to improve and maintain government transparency, efficiency and communication” by creating “an intuitive and interactive web portal that provides public access to information in usable and searchable formats.”</p>
<p>As someone who’s written my share of data-heavy blog posts you might expect that I’d be wildly cheering these plans on from the sidelines.  However as someone who’s also seen my share of technology hype cycles, of which “big data” is only the latest, I also feel compelled to throw a little cold water on at least some aspects of these proposals.  To be specific:</p>
<p>Yes, open government, big data, and related topics are hot and sexy.  But in the end the goal of Howard County government is to making Howard County a better place to live for its residents.  In that respect <em>providing access to government data</em> (and in particular building high-profile web portals, dashboards, and so on, to display that data) <em>is a means, not an end.</em> This applies more generally to accountability, transparency, and all those other nice things candidates are promising and activists are demanding.  We shouldn’t confuse process with products: Transparency is nice, but transparency in and of itself is arguably useless.</p>
<p>Second, as <a href="https://jameshoward.us/2014/10/20/big-data-locals/" title="Big Data for Locals">James Howard noted</a> in a recent post, <em>Howard County isn’t really big enough for big data.</em> To take but one example, systems like those created in New York City, Baltimore, and so on, are often touted as enabling better law enforcement, for example by identifying detailed geographic patterns in particular types of crimes.  But those large cities have lots of crimes, enough that any patterns in the data stand a good chance of being significant.  Given the generally small number of crimes in Howard County, it’s quite possible that a lot of the patterns in county crime data simply represent statistical noise and don’t add a lot of information beyond what Howard County police already know based on their lived experience.  That’s certainly true for very low-frequency crimes like murder.  In 2013 there were only four homicides in Howard County, and I personally knew three of the victims.  Is there any significance to that fact?  None whatsoever&mdash;it’s simply random coincidence at work.</p>
<p>Next, <em>data without context is not that useful</em>, and may be actively harmful.  A good example is school test scores.  As <a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2014/11/time-travel-and-rats-in-shoebox.html" title="Time Travel and Rats in a Shoebox">Julia McCready recently pointed out</a>, it’s unclear that school test scores are actually useful for identifying “good” schools versus “bad” schools.  It’s quite possible that test scores for a given school are simply reflecting the characteristics of the students who go to that school, and not whether that school is better than others in educating students.  A system that doesn’t provide context for data is a system whose data is likely to be misinterpreted and misused.</p>
<p>Related to the previous point, <em>data without (policy) experimentation is also not all that useful.</em> Data in and of itself isn’t necessarily that informative about what policies should be implemented, because it doesn’t necessarily indicate which underlying factors are driving the results we see, and how we migh achieve better results.  Determining that typically requires actually making some policy changes to see what happens, and doing so in a controlled manner that permits some statistically valid conclusions to be drawn.  (See for example Jim Manzi’s book <a href="http://www.manhattan-institute.org/uncontrolled/">Uncontrolled: The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Society</a>.)  But making policy changes is hard enough in the first place; doing randomized controlled trials of different policy options (especially when one option in a proper trial is “do nothing”) is even more difficult.  (It’s the same phenomenon as with drug trials: No one wants to be in the group taking the placebo.)</p>
<p>Finally, <em>all the data in the world won’t necessarily change people’s minds</em> about what policies to adopt.  People of all political persuasions are quite capable of holding on to their opinions and political positions no matter what the data indicates (and note that I myself can be as susceptible to this as anyone).  Smart people in particular (the kind of people who like to visit data portals and are arguing for their creation) are really good at finding reasons to doubt what the data appears to be telling us.  So if in the end we switch from arguing about policies to arguing about data and methodologies, have we really achieved anything?</p>
<p>Despite all I’ve written above I’m not a total skeptic about the possibility of Howard County doing more to provide access to government data.  I’d just like the county government and in particular the new County Executive to embark on this task with a proper sense of humility.  In particular I have the following recommendations:</p>
<p>First, <em>start simple, start small, underpromise and over deliver.</em> Do we really need to spend potentially millions of taxpayer dollars on a high-profile system that’s at a relatively high risk of failing to meet its goals?  Why not incrementally extend existing efforts?  For example, there’s already a site <a href="http://data.howardcountymd.gov/">data.howardcountymd.gov</a>.  Does anyone use it?  If not, why not?  Could this site be relatively inexpensively improved to make it more valuable and attractive to Howard County residents?  Could data already provided by other county agencies be consolidated onto this existing site?</p>
<p>Next, for many if not most cases I suggest that the county <em>provide only data, and let the private and nonprofit sector add value to it.</em> A lot of the data generated by Howard County government is of interest to relatively small groups of people.  Why bother spending a lot of time and money creating a fancy data portal just for those groups?  Just give them the raw data, in as simple a form as possible, for example as so-called “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comma-separated_values">comma-separated values</a>” or CSV-formatted files that can be loaded into any desktop spreadsheet program or <a href="http://www.r-project.org" title="The R Project for Statistical Computing">open source statistical package</a>.  Then let those groups decide how best to analyze the data and prepare it for public dissemination.  If the county wants to do more, “teach people to fish”: work with the Howard County Library System, Howard Community College, and local volunteers to organize classes for businesses, nonprofit organizations, and local activists in how to use common “data science” tools and how to build data-driven web sites.</p>
<p>If the county does want to provide its own system, please, please, <em>please</em> don’t do so under an arrangement that gives an outside contractor a measure of control over the data, how it’s distributed, and what can be done with it.  If the county releases data then that <em>data should be available to everyone, in a form everyone can use, and for whatever purposes people want to make use of it.</em></p>
<p>Related to the previous point, <em>treat providing data to the public as a core government function, to be budgeted as such</em>, and not as an adjunct task for which an agency needs to pursue “cost recovery” or even (heaven forbid) tries to make a profit center.  It is not the business of government to be “in business,” especially in an era when the marginal cost of disseminating raw data products via the Internet is so low.  Budget for collecting the data and preparing it for public release at no charge, not for implementing complicated schemes by which access to data can be controlled and sold.</p>
<p>Government data ultimately belongs to all of us, a public resource for all to use, and government itself is not necessarily best equipped to analyze, present, and build on that data.  Let’s have Howard County government data be made available to all in a way that makes the most efficient use of taxpayer dollars and leverages the creative energies of the multitude of organizations and individuals in the private and civic sectors.  I think that’s an approach that anyone can get behind, no matter their political affiliation.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="fb9c1b15-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">Jessie Newburn</a> - 2014-11-04 12:55</h4>
<p>Ever and always, brilliant!</p>
<h4 id="fb9c1b15-002">Trevor Greene (trevordentist@gmail.com) - 2014-11-04 14:01</h4>
<p>I can think of one good reason to put all this data out there. Once all the data is readily available, I&rsquo;ll be able to read a series of Frank Hecker blog posts analyzing said data.</p>
<h4 id="fb9c1b15-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-11-06 17:34</h4>
<p>Trevor, good to see your comments again. But&hellip; I don&rsquo;t think Howard County government needs to spend millions just to keep me happy and you entertained :-)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A public service announcement</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/04/a-public-service-announcement/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 04 Nov 2014 06:00:53 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/11/04/a-public-service-announcement/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;tl;dr: Vote for Tom Coale for Maryland House of Delegates, District 9B.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Before I publish my main post for today, a brief public service announcement: If you live in District 9B and haven’t yet voted, please consider giving &lt;a href=&#34;http://tomcoale.com&#34;&gt;Tom Coale&lt;/a&gt; your vote for Delegate.  For the most part this is a nonpartisan blog, and I have a pretty strict policy of not endorsing candidates for office, even for nonpartisan positions like those on the Board of Education.  The &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/22/tom-coale-for-delegate-in-district-9b/&#34; title=&#34;Tom Coale for Delegate in District 9B&#34;&gt;only exception I’ve ever made&lt;/a&gt; (and likely ever will make) is for Tom.  I think he would make a great representative for the people of Ellicott City; my only regret is that I live across US 40 from District 9B and can’t vote for him.  (Although if Tom wins this election and performs at the level I think he’s capable of, I think in future I and a lot of other people will in fact get our chance to elect him to something else.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>tl;dr: Vote for Tom Coale for Maryland House of Delegates, District 9B.</p>
<p>Before I publish my main post for today, a brief public service announcement: If you live in District 9B and haven’t yet voted, please consider giving <a href="http://tomcoale.com">Tom Coale</a> your vote for Delegate.  For the most part this is a nonpartisan blog, and I have a pretty strict policy of not endorsing candidates for office, even for nonpartisan positions like those on the Board of Education.  The <a href="/2013/06/22/tom-coale-for-delegate-in-district-9b/" title="Tom Coale for Delegate in District 9B">only exception I’ve ever made</a> (and likely ever will make) is for Tom.  I think he would make a great representative for the people of Ellicott City; my only regret is that I live across US 40 from District 9B and can’t vote for him.  (Although if Tom wins this election and performs at the level I think he’s capable of, I think in future I and a lot of other people will in fact get our chance to elect him to something else.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The CA board and the Inner Arbor Trust</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/07/10/the-ca-board-and-the-inner-arbor-trust/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 10 Jul 2014 08:00:48 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/07/10/the-ca-board-and-the-inner-arbor-trust/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Unfortunately I won’t be able to attend the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.columbiaassociation.com/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowPrimaryDocument/?agendaID=573&amp;amp;isPub=True&amp;amp;includeTrash=False&#34;&gt;Columbia Association board meeting&lt;/a&gt; this evening.  Here are the remarks I had planned to make during the speak-out portion of the meeting; if anyone else wants to crib from these for their own remarks please feel free to do so:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I have two points I wanted to make tonight:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, I have not seen the language of the Inner Arbor Trust easement, and am not qualified to comment on legal issues relating to the easement.  However I have read pretty much every public source of information I could find relating to the various proposals for Symphony Woods, and everything I’ve read indicates that the Columbia Association has been accepting of the actions taken by the Inner Arbor Trust since its creation.  That includes in particular the Trust’s decision to leverage the work already done by CA as part of the county planning process, and concentrate first on developing the part of Symphony Woods covered by the current Inner Arbor plan&amp;mdash;a plan whose elements are those contained in the original CA-submitted Final Development Plan, including an amphitheater, café, play area, and so on.  There is nothing in the public record to indicate that the Inner Arbor Trust was ever acting in violation of the easement as far as CA was concerned.  If the current CA board is determined to test the issue in court I believe that the private record of dealings between CA and the Inner Arbor Trust will also show this to be the case.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unfortunately I won’t be able to attend the <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.com/Home/Components/MeetingsManager/MeetingAgenda/ShowPrimaryDocument/?agendaID=573&amp;isPub=True&amp;includeTrash=False">Columbia Association board meeting</a> this evening.  Here are the remarks I had planned to make during the speak-out portion of the meeting; if anyone else wants to crib from these for their own remarks please feel free to do so:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I have two points I wanted to make tonight:</p>
<p>First, I have not seen the language of the Inner Arbor Trust easement, and am not qualified to comment on legal issues relating to the easement.  However I have read pretty much every public source of information I could find relating to the various proposals for Symphony Woods, and everything I’ve read indicates that the Columbia Association has been accepting of the actions taken by the Inner Arbor Trust since its creation.  That includes in particular the Trust’s decision to leverage the work already done by CA as part of the county planning process, and concentrate first on developing the part of Symphony Woods covered by the current Inner Arbor plan&mdash;a plan whose elements are those contained in the original CA-submitted Final Development Plan, including an amphitheater, café, play area, and so on.  There is nothing in the public record to indicate that the Inner Arbor Trust was ever acting in violation of the easement as far as CA was concerned.  If the current CA board is determined to test the issue in court I believe that the private record of dealings between CA and the Inner Arbor Trust will also show this to be the case.</p>
<p>Second, if the CA board is determined to pursue action against the Inner Arbor Trust then it will presumably put at risk the construction of the Chrysalis amphitheater, the first feature of the Inner Arbor plan scheduled to be realized.  The Chrysalis is a key element of the plan, and a needed complement to a renovated Merriweather Post Pavilion.  It is also a beautiful and innovative structure, designed by an <a href="/2014/06/30/chrysalis-designer-wins-world-architecture-news-21-for-21-award/" title="Chrysalis designer wins World Architecture News 21 for 21 award">award-winning architect</a> who’s been hailed as “the rising star of the 21st century.”  It would be a shame if Columbia were to lose the chance to host the first major work by an architect who may become as prominent in this century as Frank Gehry did in the last.  And given that construction of the Chrysalis is being funded by the county, it would more than a shame if the CA board’s actions cause schedule delays and consequent cost overruns for which Howard County taxpayers will be asked to pick up the tab.</p>
<p>I believe the Inner Arbor Trust has produced a superior plan for Symphony Woods, a plan of which CA has previously been supportive.  By all indications the Inner Arbor Trust has also been executing on that plan in a competent and timely manner.  For the CA board to now reverse CA’s previous support of the Trust would I think do a disservice to the residents of Columbia and the rest of Howard County, who want to see a renewed and vibrant Symphony Woods.  If that reversal ultimately leads to expensive and protracted legal proceedings then I think the board would also do a disservice to the Columbia Association itself, and risk damaging CA’s ability to effectively serve the Columbians to whom it is ultimately accountable.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As for what the CA board will end up doing, I have no idea.  I look forward to reading reports from those who are able to attend the meeting.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Fixed a couple of grammatical errors.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="0660d301-001"><a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com" title="divajackson@yahoo.com">Julia McCready</a> - 2014-07-10 16:52</h4>
<p>Submit this in writing! It is too good to be cribbed by others.</p>
<h4 id="0660d301-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-07-11 12:19</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by! Unfortunately I had other commitments that prevented me from being there in person or otherwise submitting stuff before the meeting.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Chrysalis designer wins World Architecture News 21 for 21 award</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/30/chrysalis-designer-wins-world-architecture-news-21-for-21-award/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 30 Jun 2014 08:00:44 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/30/chrysalis-designer-wins-world-architecture-news-21-for-21-award/</guid>
      <description>&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/9-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-exterior.jpg&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/9-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-exterior-embed.jpg&#34;
         alt=&#34;Architectural rendering of the Chrysalis, exterior view&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;The Chrysalis in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.&lt;/p&gt;
        &lt;/figcaption&gt;
&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://theverymany.com/about/&#34;&gt;Marc Fornes&lt;/a&gt;, the designer of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://theverymany.com/buildings/13_merriweather-park/&#34;&gt;Chrysalis&lt;/a&gt;, the amphitheater planned for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan, and his firm THEVERYMANY are one of two winners of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://backstage.worldarchitecturenews.com/wanawards/award/sector/21-for-21-14&#34;&gt;2014 WAN 21 for 21 award&lt;/a&gt; sponsored by &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.worldarchitecturenews.com&#34;&gt;World Architecture News&lt;/a&gt;, “an initiative aiming to highlight 21 architects who could be the leading lights of architecture in the 21st century.”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/9-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-exterior.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/9-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-exterior-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Chrysalis, exterior view"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Chrysalis in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><a href="http://theverymany.com/about/">Marc Fornes</a>, the designer of the <a href="http://theverymany.com/buildings/13_merriweather-park/">Chrysalis</a>, the amphitheater planned for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan, and his firm THEVERYMANY are one of two winners of the <a href="http://backstage.worldarchitecturenews.com/wanawards/award/sector/21-for-21-14">2014 WAN 21 for 21 award</a> sponsored by <a href="http://www.worldarchitecturenews.com">World Architecture News</a>, “an initiative aiming to highlight 21 architects who could be the leading lights of architecture in the 21st century.”</p>
<p>(This actually happened back in the spring, but I was only recently alerted to this when I was checking out who linked to my blog and saw a <a href="http://blog.rhino3d.com/2014/06/chrysalis-amphitheater-at-merriweather.html">Rhino News blog post</a> that mentioned the award.  I’ve previously written about the Chrysalis, Fornes, and his firm THEVERYMANY as part of <a href="/tag/innerarbor">my ongoing coverage of the Inner Arbor plan</a>; see in particular <a href="/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 6: The Chrysalis">my initial post</a> and <a href="/2014/02/25/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-9-piecing-together-the-chrysalis/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 9: Piecing together the Chrysalis">my follow-up post</a> discussing the structure of the Chrysalis in more detail.)</p>
<p>THEVERYMANY and 2014 co-winner sP+a (Sameep Padora + Associates) were selected from a total of 94 entries submitted, of which 42 were selected for more detailed consideration.  The <a href="http://www.worldarchitecturenews.com/index.php?fuseaction=wanappln.projectview&amp;upload_id=24221&amp;q=fornes" title="Two more emerging firms join 18 previous winners in hunt for the next 21 top practices">accompanying story</a> notes that “As soon as Marc Fornes’ work was set on the table it was clear that a unanimous agreement [among the judges] was brewing” and quotes one of the architects judging the awards praising Fornes as “an absolute leader” and “the rising star of the 21st century.”</p>
<p>So what’s all the fuss about?  The <a href="http://backstage.worldarchitecturenews.com/wanawards/project/chrysalis/">entry submitted by THEVERYMANY</a> highlighted the Chrysalis, and discussed the firm as a “studio committed to the design and construction of prototypical architecture via custom computational methods.”  The language of the submission is somewhat dry and abstract, so I’ll try to describe Fornes’s methods more informally:</p>
<p>Traditional architectural practice is based on architects conceiving of a structural form or set of forms in their minds, putting pen to paper to refine the design through drawings, and then using computers primarily as an aid to the rest of the process: creating more detailed drawings to nail down the final look of the structure and make sure everything will fit together as envisioned, doing structural analysis to see if the structure can handle loads, producing good-looking renderings for clients, and so on.</p>
<p>THEVERYMANY turns that process on its head: Don’t use the computer as a simple drawing tool, a substitute for pen and paper.  Use it for what it’s truly capable of, including exploring the space of possible three-dimensional structures.  More concretely: Start with sophisticated 3D modeling applications (like <a href="http://www.rhino3d.com">Rhino</a>, the one Fornes uses).  Extend them with powerful programming languages that can be used to drive the 3D modelers (Fornes uses <a href="https://www.python.org">Python</a> as <a href="http://wiki.mcneel.com/developer/python">implemented in Rhino</a>).  Leverage applications that can take complex 3-dimensional surfaces and join them together into structural elements and then into complete structures (see for example <a href="http://www.rhinonest.com/page/what-s-rhinonest" title="What’s RhinoNest">RhinoNest</a>).  Add code that can analyze such structures for soundness, and that can produce instructions for computer-controlled machinery to create individual pieces that can then be assembled into the finished structure.  Finally (and most importantly), find people like Fornes and his associates who have the knowledge, discipline, and aesthetic sensibility to incorporate these techniques into the heart of their architectural practice.</p>
<p>As the submission entry states, “The desire is not to generate models, nor installations, but rather 1:1 scale structures, prototypical architectures.” Fornes has been developing such prototypes for many years now, and “continually pushes constraints at larger scales.”  The result of this work is the Chrysalis amphitheater as you see it here, a beautiful airy structure that looks as if it had emerged naturally from the earth.  I hope it won’t be long before we see it in real life as part of Symphony Woods, replacing the temporary stage that’s been used this year during Wine in the Woods and other events.  If all goes well it will be in place sometime next year, and Columbia can (as it did with Frank Gehry) once again boast of hosting the early work of an architect who seems destined for great things.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="9d77e3a0-002"><a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com" title="divajackson@yahoo.com">Julia McCready</a> - 2014-06-30 12:26</h4>
<p>You and I seem to have the same subject on our minds today!</p>
<h4 id="9d77e3a0-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-06-30 22:23</h4>
<p>Indeed. Looking forward to the completion of your Millennium Park post &hellip;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Final results</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/25/campaign-signs-2014-final-results/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 25 Jun 2014 08:00:01 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/25/campaign-signs-2014-final-results/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;The Maryland 2014 primaries are now over, and it’s time for me to wrap up and name some final winners.  I’ve had a busy past few weeks with a dozen posts critiquing more than six dozen signs (plus one car magnet).  In case you want to revisit signs in any of the primary races, here’s the complete list of posts (rearranged from the order in which I posted them):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Howard County
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/24/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-executive/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Executive&#34;&gt;County Executive&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/23/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-council-district-1/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Council District 1&#34;&gt;Council District 1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/06/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-sheriff/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Sheriff&#34;&gt;Sheriff&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/08/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-states-attorney/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Howard County State’s Attorney&#34;&gt;State’s Attorney&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/14/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-judge-of-the-orphans-court/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Judge of the Orphans’ Court&#34;&gt;Judge of the Orphans’ Court&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/22/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-board-of-education/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Board of Education&#34;&gt;Board of Education&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Maryland State Senate
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/20/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-district-9/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Maryland State Senate District 9&#34;&gt;District 9&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/21/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-districts-12-and-13/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Maryland State Senate Districts 12 and 13&#34;&gt;Districts 12 and 13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Maryland House of Delegates
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9A&#34;&gt;District 9A&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/17/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9b/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9B&#34;&gt;District 9B&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/18/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-12/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 12&#34;&gt;District 12&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/19/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-13/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 13&#34;&gt;District 13&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Note that I’ve updated the Board of Education and House of Delegates District 12 posts to add pictures of signs for Allen Dyer and Eric Ebersole respectively.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Maryland 2014 primaries are now over, and it’s time for me to wrap up and name some final winners.  I’ve had a busy past few weeks with a dozen posts critiquing more than six dozen signs (plus one car magnet).  In case you want to revisit signs in any of the primary races, here’s the complete list of posts (rearranged from the order in which I posted them):</p>
<ul>
<li>Howard County
<ul>
<li><a href="/2014/06/24/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-executive/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Executive">County Executive</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/23/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-council-district-1/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Council District 1">Council District 1</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/06/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-sheriff/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Sheriff">Sheriff</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/08/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-states-attorney/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Howard County State’s Attorney">State’s Attorney</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/14/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-judge-of-the-orphans-court/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Judge of the Orphans’ Court">Judge of the Orphans’ Court</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/22/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-board-of-education/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Board of Education">Board of Education</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Maryland State Senate
<ul>
<li><a href="/2014/06/20/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-district-9/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Maryland State Senate District 9">District 9</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/21/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-districts-12-and-13/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Maryland State Senate Districts 12 and 13">Districts 12 and 13</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Maryland House of Delegates
<ul>
<li><a href="/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9A">District 9A</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/17/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9b/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9B">District 9B</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/18/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-12/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 12">District 12</a></li>
<li><a href="/2014/06/19/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-13/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 13">District 13</a></li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Note that I’ve updated the Board of Education and House of Delegates District 12 posts to add pictures of signs for Allen Dyer and Eric Ebersole respectively.</p>
<p>I already selected winners (or in some cases, multiple winners) for signs in each race.  Now it’s time for me to name winners in some special category, as well as an overall winner for all signs I saw.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mirabile-delegate-9a-large.jpg"><img alt="mirabile-delegate-9a-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mirabile-delegate-9a-large.jpg?w=150"></a>The first category is for the best slogan.  As I’ve mentioned previously, I’m not too hot on including campaign slogans on signs, and certainly there were a number of signs in this election where the slogan wasn’t doing much more than taking up space.  However on Frank Mirabile’s sign the slogan “Time to Stand Our Ground” is both memorable and does something useful, namely letting the more partisan voters in a party primary know exactly where the candidate, uh, stands.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/stewart-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="stewart-delegate-12-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/stewart-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg?w=150"></a>After seeing lots of signs I get tired of looking at conventional color schemes, either the American colors red, white, and blue or the Maryland colors red, white, black, and yellow, and I yearn for a change.  I thus decided to have a “color my world” category, in which the winner is the large Nick Stewart sign and its orange on blue color scheme.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/miller-delegate-9a-2014-small-changed.jpeg"><img alt="miller-delegate-9a-2014-small-changed" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/miller-delegate-9a-2014-small-changed.jpeg?w=150"></a>Some signs I thought were almost but not quite what they could be.  In some cases (as, for example, with Ryan Frederic’s sign) I don’t know enough about graphic design to determine how the sign could best be improved.  In other cases I thought just a relatively small change would do the trick.  Hence we have the “most easily improved” category, with the winner being the small Warren Miller sign once the (in my opinion) superfluous design elements in the upper left and right corners have been removed (as I’ve done here).</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/broccolino-states-attorney-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="broccolino-states-attorney-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/broccolino-states-attorney-2014-large.jpg?w=150"></a>Finally, the moment you’ve all been waiting for (or not, as the case may be): My pick for the best Howard County campaign sign of 2014.  Those of you who’ve been reading this entire series will not be surprised at my pick, the large Dario Broccolino sign.  This sign made me go “wow” the first time I saw it, and I haven’t seen another sign to top it since then.</p>
<p>With that I’m concluding this series, at least for now.  I did collect pictures of signs for the gubernatorial race and the race for Attorney General, but I just ran out of energy to post and critique them; maybe later.  Also, if I have time and the inclination I’ll post closer to the general election if there are any new signs that didn’t show up in the primary.</p>
<p>Finally, some thanks: First, thanks to all of you who’ve come to this blog to read these posts; I appreciate your attention, and hope your time was worth it.  A further thanks to those of you who stopped to comment, who sent me pictures of signs, or who pointed out where I could find them; I love hearing from readers, and thank you for taking the time to contact me.  And last but not at all least, thanks to all the candidates who put themselves out in the public eye and ran for election to public office.  As I wrote before, you had to endure people commenting on your public appearances, counting up your Twitter and Facebook followers, and making videos about your direct mail pieces.  And thanks to me, not even your signs are safe from criticism.  Thank you for bearing it all in good grace, and being willing to serve the citizens of Howard County and Maryland.</p>
<p>This is the end of my one-a-day posts; I now return you to your regular (or I should say in my case, irregular) programming.  I’m not sure when I’ll post next, or what I’ll post about, but if you’re interested in what more I might have to say please take a moment to click the “Subscribe via email” button or add my <a href="/feed/" title="RSS - Posts">RSS feed</a> to your newsreader.  Till later!</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="f622c6af-001">Walter Carson (wcarson@columbiaunion.net) - 2014-06-25 12:18</h4>
<p>Well done! Always enjoy your take on signs and local politics. Best wishes. WEC Sent from my iPhone</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Executive</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/24/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-executive/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 24 Jun 2014 08:00:02 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/24/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-executive/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Today is primary day, and the day I cover the last of the local campaign signs, this time for Howard County Executive candidates Allan Kittleman and Courtney Watson (both of whom happen to be unopposed in the primaries).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria&#34;&gt;criteria&lt;/a&gt; I’ve previously discussed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/kittleman-county-executive-2014-small.jpg&#34;&gt;&lt;img alt=&#34;kittleman-county-executive-2014-small&#34; loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/kittleman-county-executive-2014-small-embed.jpg&#34;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9A&#34;&gt;I’ve previously written&lt;/a&gt; about the problems inherent in using all four colors of the Maryland flag in a single sign.  This sign handles those problems as well as they can be handled, mainly by avoiding the red text on yellow background found in signs from Trent Kittleman, Frank Mirabile, and others.  Instead this sign carefully restricts itself to the exact color juxtapositions found the Maryland flag: black with yellow, and red with white.  More specifically, it restricts itself to what I think are the best color combinations: black text on a yellow background and white text on a red background.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today is primary day, and the day I cover the last of the local campaign signs, this time for Howard County Executive candidates Allan Kittleman and Courtney Watson (both of whom happen to be unopposed in the primaries).</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/kittleman-county-executive-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="kittleman-county-executive-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/kittleman-county-executive-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p><a href="/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9A">I’ve previously written</a> about the problems inherent in using all four colors of the Maryland flag in a single sign.  This sign handles those problems as well as they can be handled, mainly by avoiding the red text on yellow background found in signs from Trent Kittleman, Frank Mirabile, and others.  Instead this sign carefully restricts itself to the exact color juxtapositions found the Maryland flag: black with yellow, and red with white.  More specifically, it restricts itself to what I think are the best color combinations: black text on a yellow background and white text on a red background.</p>
<p>Some other things to note about this sign: The typeface is clean and readable; it’s bold enough to stand out but light enough to allow adequate space between the letters.  Using both upper and lower case in “Kittleman” means that the text isn’t quite as wide as it would be if it were in all upper case, and thus it can fit better on the sign.  (“Kittleman” has nine letters, just like “Grabowski” and “Markovitz”; compare this sign to the Grabowski and Markovitz signs I discussed in <a href="/2014/06/23/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-council-district-1/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Council District 1">my previous post</a>.)  The red banner-like design element in the upper right corner is well-done; note that on the left side of the element the yellow background seems to form an arrowhead pointing to the “Proven Independent Leader” slogan.  The slogan itself points diagonally upward to the right to make the sign more dynamic (the same technique used on the Dario Broccolino sign).  Finally, note that the horizontal line separating “Kittleman” from “Howard County Executive” is not just red on yellow (a poor combination) but is both red and white in order to maintain the preferred color juxtapositions I mentioned above.</p>
<p>The one thing that bothered me about this sign is that the “Howard County Executive” seems a bit thin.  When I was walking around the neighborhood I had some trouble making that text out when viewing the sign from a distance.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/kittleman-county-executive-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="kittleman-county-executive-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/kittleman-county-executive-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The design of the large version of the Allan Kittleman sign is the same as that of the smaller sign, except that “Howard County Executive” is now one line rather than two, is in a slightly bolder typeface, and (at least to my eyes) is more readable.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/watson-county-executive-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="watson-county-executive-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/watson-county-executive-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Like <a href="/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/" title="Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 3">Courtney Watson’s 2010 sign</a>, this sign uses white text on a blue background to good effect: The text is very readable (especially “County Executive”), and there’s a good visual progression from oblique serif type and all caps in “COURTNEY” to the bold san serif typeface of “WATSON” to the sans serif mixed case of “County Executive.”</p>
<p>The one potentially problematic part of this sign is the design element in the upper left corner.  Typical non-text elements in signs are either totally non-representational (e.g., lines or borders) or are common symbols that are immediately recognizable (e.g., stars, apples, flag-derived banners).  This element is clearly intended to represent something, but it’s not immediately clear what that something is.  My personal interpretation is that it’s symbolic of Howard County’s rural heritage: (yellow) sun above (white) road above (green) field; however I’m not sure the average person would see it the same way as I do.  Nevertheless the colors are very nice and brighten up what would otherwise be a plain and unadorned sign.  (Note also that subtle green line that separates “WATSON” and “County Executive” and echoes the green in the upper left conner.)</p>
<p>Now for the tough part: Which sign to vote for?  This contest is certainly not as lopsided as we saw four years ago with <a href="/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/" title="Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 2">Trent Kittleman’s sign</a> vs. <a href="/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/" title="Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 3">Ken Ulman’s sign</a>; these signs are much more closely matched.  Both sign designs are professional and effective but neither is perfect, for reasons explained above.  On Kittleman’s side I think this the first black/yellow/red/white sign design I actually find attractive; on Watson’s side I really like the sign but consider it just a step down from the 2010 sign.  In the end I’m going to take the coward’s way out and call this a toss-up.</p>
<p>This concludes my look at the campaign signs for Howard County local races in 2014.  In my next post I’ll wrap things up and name some overall winners in various categories, including my choice for the best Howard County campaign sign of 2014.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Council District 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/23/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-council-district-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 23 Jun 2014 08:00:52 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/23/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-council-district-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;With the primary one day away, I’m close to the end of this campaign sign adventure.  Today we look at the signs in the race for Howard County Council in District 1, a seat left open when Courtney Watson decided to run for Howard County Executive.  The candidates are Democrats Dave Grabowski, Lisa Markovitz, Wendy Royalty, and Jon Weinstein, and Republicans David Blake Melton and Kevin Forrest Schmidt.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria&#34;&gt;criteria&lt;/a&gt; I’ve previously discussed.  Note that I could not find any signs for David Blake Melton.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the primary one day away, I’m close to the end of this campaign sign adventure.  Today we look at the signs in the race for Howard County Council in District 1, a seat left open when Courtney Watson decided to run for Howard County Executive.  The candidates are Democrats Dave Grabowski, Lisa Markovitz, Wendy Royalty, and Jon Weinstein, and Republicans David Blake Melton and Kevin Forrest Schmidt.</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.  Note that I could not find any signs for David Blake Melton.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/grabowski-county-council-1-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="grabowski-county-council-1-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/grabowski-county-council-1-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Dave Grabowski, like Lisa Markovitz and Dario Broccolino, has the problem of having a long name that’s difficult to fit on a sign; unlike Renée McGuirk-Spence, hyphenating it is not an option.  Unlike the Dario Broccolino sign, which provided more room for the name by displaying it on the diagonal, this Grabowski sign adopts the simple strategy of displaying the name horizontally in a serif typeface that is pretty readable.  Overall the sign is clean and well-designed, with no extraneous elements or slogans.  The background color isn’t one of my favorites, but that’s just a matter of taste; certainly it provides a good contrast to the text.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/markovitz-county-council-1-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="markovitz-county-council-1-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/markovitz-county-council-1-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>I like the color on this sign; it’s a change from the typical colors and is not so pastel that it causes contrast problems.  However I think the typeface used for “Markovitz” is just a tad too bold, and that does affect readability a bit.  Compare this sign to the Grabowski sign above; both names are the same length but I think you’d better be able to recognize “Grabowski” from a distance.  Also, I’m not sure the “Vote ‘14” design element in the upper right corner adds anything.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/royalty-county-council-1-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="royalty-county-council-1-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/royalty-county-council-1-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is a solid sign: No extraneous clutter, typeface that’s bold but still readable, and a good background color.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/royalty-county-council-1-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="royalty-county-council-1-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/royalty-county-council-1-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is almost the same design as the small Wendy Royalty sign, but it’s missing the white border found on that sign.  To me that’s to its detriment: I think the white border works well to frame the main part of the design.  Without the border all that red in the background gets to be a bit much.  The design is cropped really tight as well; notice how close the “R” and “y” in “Royalty” are to the edge of the sign.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/schmidt-county-council-1-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="schmidt-county-council-1-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/schmidt-county-council-1-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>A nice minimal sign that highlights the candidate’s (full) name and position sought without trying to cram anything else in.  The color and typeface look good as well.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/schmidt-county-council-1-2014-small-2.jpg"><img alt="schmidt-county-council-1-2014-small-2" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/schmidt-county-council-1-2014-small-2.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is an interesting sign.  Kevin Forrest Schmidt couples this sign with his regular sign, for example putting the “RUN FORREST RUN” sign next to or in front of his other sign.  It’s a cute gimmick to lend some personality to the signs, although I’m not sure if it’s worth printing double the number of signs that normally would be required.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/weinstein-county-council-1-small-2.jpg"><img alt="weinstein-county-council-1-small-2" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/weinstein-county-council-1-small-2-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Jon Weinstein likes yellow and white text on blue backgrounds; his 2010 campaign signs used the same color scheme.  This one is interesting because it’s a variant of the design on his other small sign.  I don’t really like the stars intermixed with dots; it seems a bit busy.  However I do like the typefaces on this sign.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/weinstein-county-council-1-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="weinstein-county-council-1-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/weinstein-county-council-1-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The different typeface and the switch to mixed upper and lower case on “Weinstein” make this sign a bit more legible.  However I think the typeface on this sign is a bit lacking in personality compared to the previous sign.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/weinstein-county-council-1-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="weinstein-county-council-1-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/weinstein-county-council-1-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign is just a taller version of the small sign, with “Howard County Council” spread out over three lines to add height.  I think that’s a mistake, as it makes the design look too skinny.  I think it would have been better to drop the “Howard,” put “County Council” on one line, and reduce the height just a tad.</p>
<p>Which sign should go on to the general election?  There are no clunkers in this race, but overall I think I like the small Wendy Royalty sign the best.  However the large Wendy Royalty sign serves as a warning that a good design can be significantly compromised by seemingly minor changes (in this case removing the border and cropping more tightly).</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll look at the marquee Howard County race, and the last local race for which I was able to find signs, namely the contest for Howard County Executive.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Board of Education</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/22/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-board-of-education/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 22 Jun 2014 08:00:42 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/22/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-board-of-education/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Today I take a break from party primaries and look at the signs for the Board of Education race.  There are 13 candidates in this race: Bess Altwerger, Corey Andrews, Maureen Evans Arthurs, Tom Baek, Zaneb Beams, Olga Butler, Allen Dyer, Sandra French, Dan Furman, Leslie Kornreich, Christine O’Connor, Mike Smith, and Cindy Vaillancourt.  &lt;del&gt;Four&lt;/del&gt;Eight of them will go on to the general election.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria&#34;&gt;criteria&lt;/a&gt; I’ve previously discussed.  Thanks to Corey Andrews for sending in a picture of his sign.  I couldn’t find any signs for Zaneb Beams and Dan Furman.  &lt;del&gt;I did see one sign for Allen Dyer, but couldn’t stop to take a picture; by the time I came back later that day the sign was gone.&lt;/del&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today I take a break from party primaries and look at the signs for the Board of Education race.  There are 13 candidates in this race: Bess Altwerger, Corey Andrews, Maureen Evans Arthurs, Tom Baek, Zaneb Beams, Olga Butler, Allen Dyer, Sandra French, Dan Furman, Leslie Kornreich, Christine O’Connor, Mike Smith, and Cindy Vaillancourt.  <del>Four</del>Eight of them will go on to the general election.</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.  Thanks to Corey Andrews for sending in a picture of his sign.  I couldn’t find any signs for Zaneb Beams and Dan Furman.  <del>I did see one sign for Allen Dyer, but couldn’t stop to take a picture; by the time I came back later that day the sign was gone.</del></p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/andrews-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="andrews-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/andrews-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is a good minimal sign with a nice clean typeface and a dark blue background to provide excellent contrast and legibility.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/altwerger-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="altwerger-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/altwerger-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The core of this sign is good: Nice typeface, readable, stands out.  However the top and bottom of this sign succumb to the syndrome of treating a campaign sign like a direct mail piece.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/arthurs-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="arthurs-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/arthurs-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is a well-designed sign as far as it goes: The typeface is great, the candidate’s name is prominently featured (even though it takes most of the sign to do so), and the apple design element is really well-done.  Unfortunately the pastel color scheme just doesn’t work well in the great outdoors; it gets washed out in bright sunlight and the sign becomes difficult to read.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/baek-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="baek-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/baek-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>I don’t understand why this sign uses an American flag; it’s a Board of Education race, not a national election.  Other than that the text elements are OK as far as they go&mdash;but note that ditching the flag motif would have allowed splitting the candidate’s name onto two lines and making the text significantly larger.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/butler-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="butler-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/butler-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>A nice sign.  The main typeface used for “BUTLER” stands out well, and the other typeface complements it well.  (Note that the typeface used for “Olga” is an oblique version of that used for “Board of Education.”  The thin white line above “Board of Education” is a nice touch too; it breaks up what otherwise might be a too-heavy red background.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/dyer-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="dyer-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/dyer-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>A good solid sign that’s quite readable.  The red, white, and blue color scheme, though quite attractive, doesn’t exactly say “Board of Education” to me.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/french-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="french-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/french-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The background apple makes the “CH” in “FRENCH” almost unreadable on this sign from a distance.  Also, why “Return” and not “Re-Elect”?  Because it sounds more “nonpartisan”?</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/kornreich-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="kornreich-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/kornreich-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>As I’ve mentioned previously, apples are a cliché in the context of Board of Education campaign signs.  The strategy of this sign is that if you’re going to use a cliché, <em>own</em> the cliché.  That together with minimal text and good complementary typefaces makes for a good sign.  My only nitpick is with the stars in the upper right, which make that area of the sign look a bit busy.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/oconnor-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="oconnor-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/oconnor-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The sun adds visual interest to this sign, its yellow color complements the green background and text colors, and the childish look of the drawing evokes education without resorting to the usual clichés.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/smith-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="smith-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/smith-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>My daughter writes: “An awesome sign.  The bow-tie makes it look totes adorbs!  Even though they are soooo 2012, it’s still a nice touch.” I write: Why a (trademarked!) bow-tie that’s inspired by the Maryland flag?  Apparently because Mike Smith wears one; see for example <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-ho-cf-smith-boe-candidate-0424-20140422,0,7129937.story" title="Attorney from Ellicott City seeks school board seat">this <em>Baltimore Sun</em> story</a>.  I guess it’s a change from the usual apples, but to be honest I’ve been looking at this sign for over a month now and just now cracked the code on it.  (For a while I wasn’t sure it was even supposed to be a bow-tie.)  In any case, whether the bow-tie is a good idea or not, including it in the middle of the sign means that the candidate’s name is relegated to a small space at the top of the sign.  That’s definitely not a good idea in my book.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/vaillancourt-boe-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="vaillancourt-boe-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/vaillancourt-boe-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign goes heavy on the apples, but oddly enough where one might expect to find yet another one, i.e., replacing the “o” in Vaillancourt, instead there’s a large globe and three small children.  This is another sign where I had to puzzle out what was going on: The globe isn’t that visible from a distance, so you have to get up close to see what’s going on.  Again, this might be OK on a direct mail piece, but with a sign the viewer will likely be driving by at 20 mph or more and there’s not enough time to notice and interpret sign elements that aren’t boldly drawn.</p>
<p>This is a tough race to call an overall sign winner.  The Olga Butler sign had no missteps, but it also didn’t have anything in the design that specifically evoked a Board of Education race; ditto for the Allen Dyer sign.  The Leslie Kornreich sign did do that effectively, and was definitely the best of the “apple signs”; the Christine O’Connor offered an alternative way to evoke education and childhood that I thought worked well.  Finally, the underlying design of the Maureen Evans Arthurs sign was really excellent, and if the colors had been a bit bolder I would have likely named it the winner.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll look at the signs for candidates in the Howard County Council race in District 1.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Corrected the number of candidates going on to the general election; thanks go to Corey Andrews for the correction.</p>
<p>UPDATE 2: Finally found a sign for Allen Dyer and updated the post to add it.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="86190ded-003"><a href="http://ubscratchpad.wordpress.com/" title="writeoncm@gmail.com">Urban Bushwoman</a> - 2014-06-23 02:31</h4>
<p>I like the Smith sign. :)</p>
<h4 id="86190ded-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-06-23 03:50</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to comment! Once I figured out the bow-tie thing, I think it was a clever gimmick for personal branding. But I still think the name is too small&hellip;</p>
<h4 id="86190ded-001">Corey Andrews (cacoreya@yahoo.com) - 2014-06-23 16:19</h4>
<p>Good post. One thing to note&hellip; eight candidates will make it through the primary, not four.</p>
<h4 id="86190ded-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-06-23 17:25</h4>
<p>D&rsquo;oh! I was confusing the number of open seats with the number of people going on to the general. Thanks for catching this! I&rsquo;ve updated the post.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Maryland State Senate Districts 12 and 13</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/21/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-districts-12-and-13/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 21 Jun 2014 08:00:04 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/21/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-districts-12-and-13/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;The Maryland State Senate races in Districts 12 and 13 are relatively quiet in terms of signs, especially since none of the candidates have opposition in the primary: Incumbent Ed Kasemeyer is unopposed in the Democratic primary in District 12, and will run against Republican Jesse Pippy in the general election.  In District 13 Democrat Guy Guzzone will face off against Republican Jody Venkatesan to win the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Jim Robey.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Maryland State Senate races in Districts 12 and 13 are relatively quiet in terms of signs, especially since none of the candidates have opposition in the primary: Incumbent Ed Kasemeyer is unopposed in the Democratic primary in District 12, and will run against Republican Jesse Pippy in the general election.  In District 13 Democrat Guy Guzzone will face off against Republican Jody Venkatesan to win the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Jim Robey.</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.  Note that I couldn’t find any signs for Jody Venkatesan.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/team-13-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="team-13-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/team-13-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Hey, haven’t I seen this sign before?  Yes, it’s Team 13 once again, with Guy Guzzone apparently not having any signs just for himself.  As I wrote before, this sign is effective but otherwise lacks interest.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hill-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="hill-delegate-12-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hill-delegate-12-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Another sign we’ve seen before, as Ed Kasemeyer piggybacks on Terri Hill’s sign design.  Again I’ve noted the problems I have with this sign, including the somewhat overly idiosyncratic typeface and the botched banner.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/pippy-senate-12-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="pippy-senate-12-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/pippy-senate-12-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>A simple sign that gets straight to the point and drives it home without any missteps along the way: candidate’s last name, position sought, and web site address for those wanting to know more.</p>
<p>The final tally?  I’m going to give this one to Jesse Pippy, first for actually having a sign of his own and second for having it be a simple but nice one.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll come back to Howard County local races and evaluate signs for the Board of Education candidates.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Maryland State Senate District 9</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/20/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-district-9/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 20 Jun 2014 08:00:19 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/20/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-state-senate-district-9/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;With this post I turn my attention to signs for candidates for Maryland State Senate, starting with District 9.  Gail Bates is giving up her current House of Delegates seat for District 9A in order to run for this Senate seat, which became open when Allan Kittleman decided to run for Howard County Executive.  Bates is unopposed in the Republican primary.  On the Democratic side Ryan Frederic and Daniel Medinger are vying for the right to run against her.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With this post I turn my attention to signs for candidates for Maryland State Senate, starting with District 9.  Gail Bates is giving up her current House of Delegates seat for District 9A in order to run for this Senate seat, which became open when Allan Kittleman decided to run for Howard County Executive.  Bates is unopposed in the Republican primary.  On the Democratic side Ryan Frederic and Daniel Medinger are vying for the right to run against her.</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/bates-senate-9-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="bates-senate-9-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bates-senate-9-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is a good sign, especially for using only two colors.  The “BATES” is large and readable in a clear serif typeface, and the smaller “Gail” in a script typeface adds a nice informal, almost personal, note.  The integration of the Maryland flag-inspired banner is also done very well; note that the banner is outlined to prevent confusion between the sign background and the white parts of the banner.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/frederic-senate-9-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="frederic-senate-9-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/frederic-senate-9-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign does some things quite well, and one thing not so well.  The good news: The sans serif typeface used for “FREDERIC” is bold and readable; it really sells the sign.  The serif typeface used for the smaller “RYAN” is also a good choice and complements the main typeface well; having the “R” be slightly larger than the “YAN” is also a nice touch.  Finally, the red star to the right of “RYAN” both balances the composition and makes it more dynamic&mdash;note that the star is slightly off-center to the right, which adds visual interest.  Overall, it’s an uncluttered and powerful design.</p>
<p>Now for the bad news: Printing “STATE SENATOR” and “DISTRICT 9” in red ink on a dark blue background makes them almost unreadable, particular if you’re driving by rather than walking.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/medinger-senate-9-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="medinger-senate-9-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/medinger-senate-9-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The main thing I don’t like about this sign is the “VOTE DANIEL” banner at the top.  It looks just a tad odd, and I feel like it’s undersized relative to the rest of the sign.  Otherwise the sign is competent and unexceptionable.</p>
<p>The results: This sign contest is a good example of “might have been.”  The Ryan Frederic sign design is really strong, but I think it was sabotaged by the color choice on the lower text.  I understand the desire to echo the red star at the top of the sign with red at the bottom of the sign and thus tie the thole design together.  However ultimately this is a campaign sign, not a print ad or direct mail piece, and I think a campaign sign has to meet more stringent criteria for readability than designs in other media.  This stumble on the part of the Ryan Frederic sign opens the way up for the Gail Bates sign to claim victory.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll evaluate signs for State Senate candidates in District 12 and 13.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 13</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/19/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-13/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 19 Jun 2014 08:00:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/19/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-13/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Since election day is not far off it’s time to pick up the pace and look at the signs for the Maryland House of Delegates race in District 13.  On the Democratic side there are five candidates for the three positions: the “Team 13” slate of Vanessa Atterbeary, Shane Pendergrass, and Frank Turner (along with Guy Guzzone for State Senate), and then Fred Eiland and Nayab Siddiqui as the “challengers.”  On the Republican side there are only three candidates, Danny Eaton, Jimmy Williams, and Chris Yates, all of whom will go on to the general election.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since election day is not far off it’s time to pick up the pace and look at the signs for the Maryland House of Delegates race in District 13.  On the Democratic side there are five candidates for the three positions: the “Team 13” slate of Vanessa Atterbeary, Shane Pendergrass, and Frank Turner (along with Guy Guzzone for State Senate), and then Fred Eiland and Nayab Siddiqui as the “challengers.”  On the Republican side there are only three candidates, Danny Eaton, Jimmy Williams, and Chris Yates, all of whom will go on to the general election.</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate , along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.  (I’m doing Team 13 first because “Atterbeary” starts with an “A.”  Also, I couldn’t find signs for Eaton and Yates.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/team-13-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="team-13-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/team-13-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The Team 13 sign seems to be a repeat of its sign from 2010 (from what I can recall).  Is it effective?  Yes: The sign reinforces that this is a slate, and tells you who’s part of it.  Is it attractive?  Only if you like bare-vanilla minimalism.  I will say though that I think in some ways doing red text on a white background is superior to doing white text on a red background.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/eiland-delegate-13-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="eiland-delegate-13-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/eiland-delegate-13-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Another basic sign that gets the job done but doesn’t hold much interest from a design perspective.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/siddiqui-delegate-13-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="siddiqui-delegate-13-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/siddiqui-delegate-13-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>I like the orange background color on this, as well as the white outlining around the black letters in “SIDDIQUI,” which makes the name stand out nicely.  This sign also has three more subtle characteristics: First, and most trivial, the orange background and black text with white outline remind one of the Baltimore Orioles (for example, <a href="http://shop.mlb.com/product/index.jsp?productId=12329987&amp;cp=33191946" title="Baltimore Orioles Authentic 2014 Personalized Alternate Cool Base Jersey w/Commemorative 60th Anniversary Patch">this version</a> of their uniform); if this isn’t simply a coincidence then it’s certainly appropriate for a candidate running in the Baltimore suburbs, especially in a district that also takes in part of Baltimore County.</p>
<p>Second, omitting the first name means that this sign could have been used equally well by either Nayab Siddiqui or Janet Siddiqui, prior to the “great switcheroo” that saw Janet withdraw from the District 13 race at the last minute and be replaced by Nayab.  (Of course, if either Janet or Nayab Siddiqui had been accepted into Team 13 then presumably they would have been on the standard Team 13 signs and if they wanted to they could have saved money and not done their own signs.)  And in any case it allows Nayab to get the benefit of any positive feelings people have toward Janet.</p>
<p>Finally, if I recall correctly, on every other sign I’ve seen for House of Delegates races the word “Delegate” appears on the bottom of the sign, below the candidate’s name.  On Nayab Siddiqui’s sign, and only on his sign, it appears at the top, so that a casual observer would read the sign as “Delegate Siddiqui.”  (The word “For” appears at the beginning, but it’s in fairly small letters and is east to miss.)  Again, this may be a coincidence, just based on the way the design evolved, but it can also be read as a way to compensate for being left off of Team 13: Encourage less-informed voters to think that you’ve already been elected and are running as an incumbent.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/williams-delegate-13-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="williams-delegate-13-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/williams-delegate-13-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Another basic sign that gets the job done.  I don’t like the way the white stripe at the bottom transitions into the Maryland flag-based banner, but that may just be me being picky.</p>
<p>As with District 12 it’s not difficult to pick a winner here.  If nothing else Nayab Siddiqui’s sign evinces an attempt to put some thought into the sign’s design above and beyond the minimum required, and it also has fun subliminal cleverness whether intended or not.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll evaluate signs for Maryland State Senate candidates in District 9.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 12</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/18/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-12/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 18 Jun 2014 09:00:04 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/18/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-12/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Today we look at the signs in the House of Delegates race in District 12.  On the Democratic side there are 10 candidates for the three positions (deep breath. . .): Brian Bailey, Jay Fred Cohen, Rebecca Dongarra, Eric Ebersole, Michael Gisriel, Terri Hill, Clarence Lam, Renée McGuirk-Spence, Adam Sachs, and Nick Stewart.  On the Republican side there are only three candidates: Gordon Bull, Joe Hooe, and Rick Martel, all of whom will go on to the general election.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today we look at the signs in the House of Delegates race in District 12.  On the Democratic side there are 10 candidates for the three positions (deep breath. . .): Brian Bailey, Jay Fred Cohen, Rebecca Dongarra, Eric Ebersole, Michael Gisriel, Terri Hill, Clarence Lam, Renée McGuirk-Spence, Adam Sachs, and Nick Stewart.  On the Republican side there are only three candidates: Gordon Bull, Joe Hooe, and Rick Martel, all of whom will go on to the general election.</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.  I couldn’t find signs for Jay Fred Cohen, Adam Sachs, or Rick Martel.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/bailey-delegate-12-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="bailey-delegate-12-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bailey-delegate-12-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The state of Maryland seems strangely balanced on the “Y” in “BAILEY” in this sign.  I think it might have been better to reduce the size of the image slightly, or just ditch the map of Maryland entirely and use something else.  (The crooked shape of Maryland doesn’t lend itself easily to good sign designs.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/bull-delegate-12-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="bull-delegate-12-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bull-delegate-12-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign is readable and serviceable, but not more than that.  Gordon Bull has the benefit of having a short last name, which means it can be featured prominently, but next to the giant “BULL” the small “GORDON” looks out of place and unbalances the composition.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/dongarra-delegate-12-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="dongarra-delegate-12-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/dongarra-delegate-12-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign is very reminiscent of the <a href="/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/" title="Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 2">sign Eric Wargotz used</a> for his 2010 US Senate campaign, even down to the descender of the “g” interrupting the horizontal stripe separating the top and bottom halves of the sign.  That’s not a bad thing, as I thought Wargotz’s sign would have been quite nice with some changes.  Dongarra’s sign has those changes, most notably simplifying the horizontal stripe and moving the position and web site address to the bottom of the sign, and is all the better for them.  (I’m not sure the star to the right of “Rebecca” was really necessary, but it does provide a bit of balance since “Rebecca” is shifted to the left a bit.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/dongarra-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="dongarra-delegate-12-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/dongarra-delegate-12-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Interestingly enough, this large Rebecca Dongarra sign follows the opposite strategy from Warren Miller’s and Tom Coale’s large signs, by not using the extra space to add the web address.  Instead the web address is on the small sign.  I think leaving off the web site address increases the impact of what was already a very good sign.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/ebersole-delegate-12-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="ebersole-delegate-12-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ebersole-delegate-12-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The name is very readable on this sign (a function of the typeface and using mixed upper and lower case), and the red, green, and blue colors work well together.  However putting the “Democrat for Delegate - District 12” text in green impairs its readability, and together with the multiple occurrences of “Teacher” makes this sign almost look like one in the Board of Education race.  Also, as with the Brian Bailey sign I’m not too big on including a map of Maryland; it makes the sign very crowded.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/gisriel-delegate-12-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="gisriel-delegate-12-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/gisriel-delegate-12-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>While this sign gets good marks for readability of Michael Gisriel’s last name, it’s just too busy.  In particular it has 14 stars, which is about 12 or 13 stars too many.  It also has the same problem as Bob Flanagan’s sign, namely poor readability of black text printed on a red background.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/gisriel-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="gisriel-delegate-12-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/gisriel-delegate-12-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>At only 10 stars rather than 14 this large version of Michael Gisriel’s sign is an improvement on the small sign.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hill-delegate-12-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="hill-delegate-12-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hill-delegate-12-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The typeface for this sign is somewhat quirky and I think might impede readability a bit.  However the more serious problem with this sign is the design element based on the Maryland flag: The left half is OK but in the right half the white background of the banner blends with the white background of the sign, so it no longer looks like a banner.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hill-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="hill-delegate-12-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hill-delegate-12-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>On this larger version of Terri Hill’s sign (advertising Ed Kasemeyer, who is unopposed in the primary) the text is more readable but the flag-based design element has the exact same problem as on the small sign.  If anything the problem is worse because the banner is supposed to transition into the red horizontal strip, and the transition just looks messy.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hooe-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="hooe-delegate-12-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hooe-delegate-12-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>A good straightforward sign, with good readability for the candidate’s name.  I could do without the map of Maryland, which looks out of place, and I’m not sure what the slogan accomplishes other than telling us how to pronounce Joe Hooe’s last name.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/lam-delegate-12-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="lam-delegate-12-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/lam-delegate-12-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The best thing about this sign is the last name: Clarence Lam is blessed with the shortest name of any candidate in this race, or for that matter any other Howard County race, and this sign pounds it into your skull with big bold yellow letters.  I don’t really love the purple background color, but in general this is an effective sign.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/lam-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="lam-delegate-12-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/lam-delegate-12-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This large Clarence Lam sign is the exact same design as his small sign, but it suffers in comparison by being so severely cropped on both sides.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mcguirk-spence-delegate-12-2014.jpg"><img alt="mcguirk-spence-delegate-12-2014" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mcguirk-spence-delegate-12-2014-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>From the candidate with the shortest last name we move to the candidate with the longest one.  However Renée McGuirk-Spence is blessed with a hyphenated name with two almost equal-length parts, which means it can be neatly split across two lines.  The result is a sign with a straightforward design, nothing fancy but it works well enough.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/stewart-delegate-12-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="stewart-delegate-12-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/stewart-delegate-12-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign has an unusual and interesting color combination.  It’s a little strange though how “NICK” appears to be much more prominent than “STEWART.”  The typeface is interesting too, but I think it’s a bit thin, which again impairs readability of the candidate’s last name.</p>
<p>Now for the results: Even though this race has a lot more candidates and thus a lot more signs than the District 9A and 9B races, it’s much easier for me to pick a winner.  I think Rebecca Dongarra’s signs are the class of the field in terms of design; although several of the other signs have their good points, nothing else really comes close as far as I’m concerned.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll evaluate signs for House of Delegates candidates in District 13.</p>
<p>UPDATE: I finally found a sign for Eric Ebersole, and updated the post to add it.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="738fdd67-001">Patricia DiCarlo (patdicarlo13@gmail.com) - 2014-06-21 14:09</h4>
<p>Siddiqui&rsquo;s sign is the only one that gives a party affiliation. Is this legal?</p>
<h4 id="738fdd67-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-06-21 17:50</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to comment! To answer your question: There are a number of other candidates other than Nayab Siddiqui who include party affiliation on their signs, including Eric Bouchat in the Maryland House of Delegates race in District 9A, and Brian Bailey in the House of Delegates race in District 12. It&rsquo;s perfectly legal. (I should also add that putting only the candidate&rsquo;s last name on a sign is also perfectly legal, as long as the last name matches the last name on the candidate&rsquo;s filing papers.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9B</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/17/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9b/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 17 Jun 2014 08:00:03 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/17/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9b/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Next in line for a campaign sign critique is the race for the Maryland House of Delegates in District 9B.  On the Democratic side the candidates are Tom Coale and Rich Corkran, one of whom will face off against either Bob Flanagan or Carol Loveless.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria&#34;&gt;criteria&lt;/a&gt; I’ve previously discussed.  Full disclosure: &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/22/tom-coale-for-delegate-in-district-9b/&#34;&gt;I publicly endorsed Tom Coale&lt;/a&gt; in this race almost a year ago (my, how time flies!), but will try not to let that affect my aesthetic judgment.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Next in line for a campaign sign critique is the race for the Maryland House of Delegates in District 9B.  On the Democratic side the candidates are Tom Coale and Rich Corkran, one of whom will face off against either Bob Flanagan or Carol Loveless.</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.  Full disclosure: <a href="/2013/06/22/tom-coale-for-delegate-in-district-9b/">I publicly endorsed Tom Coale</a> in this race almost a year ago (my, how time flies!), but will try not to let that affect my aesthetic judgment.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/coale-delegate-9b-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="coale-delegate-9b-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/coale-delegate-9b-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign’s design is uncluttered, I like the typeface, and it’s pretty readable from a distance.  The star design fits in well and adds some interest, but the red portion of the design doesn’t show up well against the blue background.  This is especially true of the thin red line dividing “TOM COALE” from “FOR DELEGATE,” which is almost invisible even up close.  (In fact, I hadn’t noticed the line myself until I was writing this post.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/coale-delegate-9b-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="coale-delegate-9b-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/coale-delegate-9b-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The large version of the sign, like the large Warren Miller sign, adds the web site address, and the arrangement of “TOM” and ”COALE” is modified to better fit the larger size.  (The red elements of the design seem to show up better as well, but that may just be due to the particular lighting conditions in which I took the photograph.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/corkran-delegate-9b-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="corkran-delegate-9b-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/corkran-delegate-9b-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This simple minimal sign is like the Ward Morrow sign in <a href="/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9A">my last post</a>: There’s nothing wrong with it, and it’s attractive as far as it goes, but it also doesn’t stand out as particularly interesting.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/flanagan-delegate-9b-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="flanagan-delegate-9b-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/flanagan-delegate-9b-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>I don’t have a picture that shows Bob Flanagan’s sign from his 2010 county council campaign in its entirety, but I believe this sign is basically the same design, even including the stalks of wheat on the left side.  Unfortunately the stalks of wheat are almost invisible as printed in black ink on a red background; ditto for the “Ellicott City” at the bottom.  Other than that the typeface is clean and legible; it’s very similar to the typeface on Tom Coale’s signs.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/flanagan-delegate-9b-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="flanagan-delegate-9b-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/flanagan-delegate-9b-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This large version of the Flanagan sign dispenses with the “Ellicott City” at the bottom, which I think is a definite improvement.  It still has the black on red wheat stalks and horizontal line, but the larger size makes these elements more visible and lets them contribute more to the overall effect of the design.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/loveless-delegate-9b-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="loveless-delegate-9b-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/loveless-delegate-9b-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>My major problem with this sign is the busyness of the added design elements, in particular the star.  The shape and positioning of those elements also reminded me somewhat of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_and_crescent">star and crescent</a> symbol associated with Islam&mdash;an odd association for a Republican candidate.  As for the rest of the design, the serif typeface works well and the sign is pretty readable overall.</p>
<p>There are no clunkers in this collection of signs, and no breakout winners either.  I think the best of the lot are Tom Coale’s small sign and Bob Flanagan’s large sign; they’re both attractive and show an effort to add some visual interest, and their flaws&mdash;such as they are&mdash;are not that consequential.  However those who prefer a “plain vanilla” sign (one that’s attractive, free of obvious flaws, but somewhat bland) may like Rich Corkran’s sign better.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/coale-delegate-9b-2014-magnet.jpg"><img alt="coale-delegate-9b-2014-magnet" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/coale-delegate-9b-2014-magnet-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Finally, although it’s not a sign (and hence is not eligible in this particular “election”) I couldn’t resist highlighting this Tom Coale car magnet.  Clearly it’s not a straightforward campaign item, but it promotes the candidate’s theme of being an advocate for Ellicott City: If you put this on your car, you’re advertising not only that you love Ellicott City, but that Tom Coale does too.  And its attractiveness (due to an excellent Maryland flag-based design) means that more people will be inclined to put it on their cars and keep it there.  I lost one of these in a car wash and was so upset I begged Tom Coale’s field director Kirsten Coombs to give me a replacement.</p>
<p>That’s all for now.  In my next post I’ll evaluate signs (a <em>lot</em> of signs) for House of Delegates candidates in District 12.</p>
<p>UPDATE: After I originally posted this I came across the large version of Bob Flanagan’s sign, and in the interest of fairness and completeness I decided to update the post to include it, especially since I consider it one of the best signs in the group.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Maryland House of Delegates District 9A</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 15 Jun 2014 08:00:27 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/15/campaign-signs-2014-maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9a/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;We now come to the first of my posts on signs in the races for the Maryland House of Delegates, starting with District 9A (my own district, as it happens).  On the Democratic side there are only two candidates for the two positions (Walter Carson and Ward Morrow),  so both will proceed to the general election unchallenged.  However on the Republican side the field is very crowded, with five candidates: Eric Bouchat, Trent Kittleman, Kyle Lorton, incumbent Warren Miller, and Frank Mirabile.  One interesting consequence of this crowded field is that (with one exception) the GOP candidates are using their signs to try to stand out in various ways.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We now come to the first of my posts on signs in the races for the Maryland House of Delegates, starting with District 9A (my own district, as it happens).  On the Democratic side there are only two candidates for the two positions (Walter Carson and Ward Morrow),  so both will proceed to the general election unchallenged.  However on the Republican side the field is very crowded, with five candidates: Eric Bouchat, Trent Kittleman, Kyle Lorton, incumbent Warren Miller, and Frank Mirabile.  One interesting consequence of this crowded field is that (with one exception) the GOP candidates are using their signs to try to stand out in various ways.</p>
<p>Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/bouchat-delegate-9a-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="bouchat-delegate-9a-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bouchat-delegate-9a-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>In my opinion this sign goes overboard in its attempt to let the voters know exactly what kind of candidate Eric Bouchat is (and thus who he’s trying to appeal to).  In fact, there’s so much other text that the actual position he’s running for gets relegated to a small space in the upper left.  Design-wise the letters in “BOUCHAT” seem too blocky and close together, while the letters in “LIMITED” look to be spaced too widely compared to those in “GOVERNMENT,” presumably in an attempt to balance the two words in terms of length.  Finally, the letters in “LIBERTARIAN CONSTITUTIONALIST” are so small I doubt they’d be readable except very close up.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/bouchat-delegate-9a-2014-small-2.jpg"><img alt="bouchat-delegate-9a-2014-small-2" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bouchat-delegate-9a-2014-small-2-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is the only diamond-shaped sign I’ve seen in the campaign, and there are reasons for why that’s the case: First, the shape doesn’t provide a lot of room for text.  The very top and bottom of the sign can be used only for non-text elements (like the Maryland flag-inspired design here); even in areas closer to the center the text has to be relatively small in order to fit.  Second, the support for the sign has to run through the middle of the sign, which means that the other side of the sign can’t be used.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/carson-delegate-9a-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="carson-delegate-9a-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/carson-delegate-9a-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is an unusual red-white-and-blue design.  I’ll give it credit for trying to do something out of the ordinary, but I don’t think the red triangle works well; in particular I think it reduces legibility a bit for the “R” and “S” in “CARSON.”  I’m curious as to what the sign would look like with just a blue background in the upper half.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/kittleman-delegate-9a-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="kittleman-delegate-9a-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/kittleman-delegate-9a-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Like other GOP candidates Trent Kittleman does a little extra to try to stand out, in this case including a picture of herself.  I’m only guessing here, but perhaps this was done both to highlight her role as the only female candidate in the race (from either party) and to help reduce potential confusion between herself and Allan Kittleman.</p>
<p>The sign’s color scheme, based on the four colors of the Maryland flag, is the same as Trent Kittleman’s sign in 2010 when she ran for Howard County Executive; in fact, except for the picture the design itself is almost identical.  As <a href="/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/" title="Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 2">I wrote at the time</a>, it’s very tough to make this color scheme look good in a sign, especially if the sign uses red text on a yellow background or vice versa&mdash;the two colors are too similar, especially when (as in this sign) the red color ends up looking more orangish.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/lorton-delegate-9a-small.jpg"><img alt="lorton-delegate-9a-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/lorton-delegate-9a-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is a good sign: The “Lorton” is very visible from a distance, due to the use of mixed upper and lower case (which tends to be more readable than all upper case), the large serif typeface, and the black outline around the letters, which tends to make them stand out from the background.  The white on black “STATE DELEGATE” looks good as well, and the design element in the upper righthand corner adds interest and does a good job of balancing the “Kyle.”  My only real criticism of the sign is that the red background looks somewhat dull and flat.</p>
<p>Note that unlike all the other Republican candidates’ signs, the Kyle Lorton sign doesn’t attempt to highlight his GOP/conservative/Tea Party bona fides; I think of it more as a “general election sign” (which assumes, of course, that Lorton will make it through the primary).</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/miller-delegate-9a-2014-small1.jpg"><img alt="miller-delegate-9a-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/miller-delegate-9a-2014-small1-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>In this election Warren Miller continues his tradition of having good-looking examples of red-white-and-blue sign designs.  In this version the blue is very dark, almost black, and makes an excellent contrast with the bright red of the top part.  (At least I <em>think</em> the bottom color is blue; it’s really hard to tell for sure, even in close-up.)  The typefaces are quite elegant and legible, with a nice rhythm in the text top to bottom: First “Warren” in mixed case, then “MILLER” in upper case in the same typeface, then “Conservative” in mixed case echoing “Warren,” albeit with a different and italic typeface, and then finally “STATE DELEGATE” in upper case in the main typeface, echoing “Miller.”</p>
<p>The only things I don’t like about this sign are the design elements in the upper corners, which I think add clutter and are not essential.  The GOP elephant at the upper left I think is redundant given the highlighting of Miller as a conservative, and the flag at the upper right seems to be there just to balance the elephant in the design.  I think the sign would look better and be more legible overall if those two elements were removed.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/miller-delegate-9a-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="miller-delegate-9a-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/miller-delegate-9a-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>The most obvious difference in the larger Warren Miller sign is the addition of the “www.miller4delegate.com” web address.  However this addition forced more subtle differences: In order to accommodate the address, the height of the bottom part of the sign was increased.  The top part of the sign was also increased in height, presumably to keep the two parts in balance.  Unfortunately this increase in height had a downside: Since the word “Conservative” is now further above the white border separating the red background from the blue background, and has more of the red background color surrounding it, optically it appears to be a bit smaller than it does in the small sign, even though the size of the text relative to “MILLER” is exactly the same.</p>
<p>I therefore think this sign would look better if the word “Conservative” were made slightly larger (say by 25% or so) and moved slightly lower down, so that it were equidistant between “MILLER” and the white horizontal divider.  And as with the smaller sign, I think the design elements in the upper corners are not necessary.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mirabile-delegate-9a-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="mirabile-delegate-9a-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mirabile-delegate-9a-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is an unfortunate example of a sign that is trying to be a campaign manifesto&mdash;unfortunate because the type is so small and the text so lengthy that even someone walking by rather than driving is unlikely to be able to easily read it all.  Their task isn’t made any easier by the use of orange/red type on a yellow background, as with Trent Kittleman’s sign.  Finally, I don’t like the Maryland flag-derived design elements to the left and right of “Maryland State Delegate 9A”; I think they overwhelm the text and make it harder to read.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/mirabile-delegate-9a-large.jpg"><img alt="mirabile-delegate-9a-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/mirabile-delegate-9a-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This larger version of the previous Frank Mirabile sign improves on the previous sign in two ways.  First, the “State Delegate 9A” is larger in size and uses a bolder typeface than “Maryland State Delegate 9A” on the previous sign, and matches the size of the flag-derived design elements.  I still think those elements could be ditched, but at least the text can hold its own against them.  Second, the campaign manifesto has been replaced by the pithier and more effective “Time to Stand Our Ground.”  The message is further reinforced by the GOP elephant and “Don’t Tread On Me” snake in the lower right, although as on the Warren Miller signs I think those are superfluous and could have been removed.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/morrow-delegate-9a-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="morrow-delegate-9a-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/morrow-delegate-9a-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is a good solid sign, in the green and white color scheme used by many Democratic candidates.  There’s not a whole lot else for me to say about it&mdash;there’s nothing wrong with the sign, and at the same time nothing that truly makes it stand out from the crowd.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/carson-morrow-delegate-9a-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="carson-morrow-delegate-9a-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/carson-morrow-delegate-9a-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a>
s
This combined sign for the two Democratic candidates nicely echoes the individual candidates’ signs: The typeface used for the names and the blue background to “Carson” hark back to Wally Carson’s sign, and the typeface used for “Elect” and “State Delegates 9A” and the green background to “Morrow” remind one of Ward Morrow’s sign.</p>
<p>Overall it’s a lively and visually interesting sign.  My only gripe is that the word “Elect” seems out of balance with the rest of the sign; maybe it would have been better to leave it off?</p>
<p>I know this is a two-member district, but I find it hard to pick just two winners.  My top three picks are the Kyle Lorton sign, the small Warren Miller sign, and the Carson/Morrow sign.  I go back and forth on my ranking of the three; however I will say that if the (in my opinion) superfluous design elements were removed from the small Warren Miller sign then it would be my top pick&mdash;I just really like the colors and typefaces used in Warren Miller’s signs.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll evaluate signs for House of Delegates candidates in District 9B.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="e115d3ff-001">Walter Carson (wcarson@columbiaunion.net) - 2014-06-15 15:25</h4>
<p>Well done! Thank you for sharing your opinion and insights. Best wishes. WEC Sent from my iPhone</p>
<h4 id="e115d3ff-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-06-15 16:47</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to comment. I did early voting yesterday at the Miller Branch library, and fortunately was able to get pictures of all the signs I was previously missing, including yours and Ward Morrow&rsquo;s.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Judge of the Orphans&#39; Court</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/14/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-judge-of-the-orphans-court/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 14 Jun 2014 08:00:42 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/14/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-judge-of-the-orphans-court/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Sorry, I changed my plans and will not be doing the legislative races just yet, since I was able to find signs for all four of the Democratic candidates for Judge of the Orphans’ Court:&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt; incumbents Anne Dodd and Leslie Smith Turner and challengers Shari Chase and Nicole Bormel Miller.  (There are only two Republican candidates for the three Orphans’ Court positions, Ellen Harrison and Emma Travis-Howard, both of whom will proceed to the general election.  I’ve not seen signs yet for either of them.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sorry, I changed my plans and will not be doing the legislative races just yet, since I was able to find signs for all four of the Democratic candidates for Judge of the Orphans’ Court:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> incumbents Anne Dodd and Leslie Smith Turner and challengers Shari Chase and Nicole Bormel Miller.  (There are only two Republican candidates for the three Orphans’ Court positions, Ellen Harrison and Emma Travis-Howard, both of whom will proceed to the general election.  I’ve not seen signs yet for either of them.)</p>
<p>So on to the judging, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.  Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments in my role as amateur design critic.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/chase-orphans-court-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="chase-orphans-court-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/chase-orphans-court-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign uses the by-now-familiar black on yellow scheme based on the Maryland flag.  It’s an OK sign: It’s fairly legible, the typeface used for the name livens the sign up a bit, the central divider with a star works well, putting “Shari” to the right rather than the center makes the overall composition more interesting, and the “scales of justice” image in the upper left serves to balance out the “Shari.”  I take points away for not putting the apostrophe on “Orphans’.”</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/dodd-orphans-court-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="dodd-orphans-court-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/dodd-orphans-court-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is a good example of a effective minimal sign design: Only as much text as needed, a single and simple sans serif typeface (the “for” appears to be simply in an oblique version of the main typeface), no extraneous design elements, and only a single color other than white.  I have only one criticism: When viewed from a distance the “D” and “O” in “DODD” look somewhat similar, so that the name looks like “OOOO” or “DDDD.”  A different typeface might have helped this, or alternatively using both upper and lower case (“Dodd” vs. “DODD”).</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/miller-orphans-court-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="miller-orphans-court-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/miller-orphans-court-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign has a nice purple background color (a break from the usual yellow or red), a good balance between the white foreground and purple background, and an interesting serif typeface.  As with the Chase sign, I take points away for not spelling “Orphans’” properly.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/turner-orphans-court-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="turner-orphans-court-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/turner-orphans-court-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign does a nice job of highlighting the candidate’s last name and the position being sought; it also highlights the fact that she’s an incumbent, which many voters might not know given that this is a relatively obscure courthouse race.  I’m less enthusiastic about the burgundy color used for the text, and I’m not a big fan of the script used for “Re-Elect Judge.”</p>
<p>Of these four I like the Dodd and Miller signs the best.  The other two are not bad signs, I just don’t think their designs stand out as being particularly attractive.  (Note that in the context of a campaign sign “attractive” is not necessarily the same as “effective”; I’m judging signs primarily on aesthetic grounds.)</p>
<p>This concludes my look at signs for the courthouse races, at least for the primary.  In my next post I’ll switch to the races for the Maryland state legislature, starting with the signs for candidates for the Maryland House of Delegates, District 9A.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>In case you’re curious, the Maryland State Archives has more on the <a href="http://msa.maryland.gov/msa/mdmanual/36loc/how/html/functions/howjudicial.html#orphans">history and function of the Orphans’ Court</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Howard County State’s Attorney</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/08/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-states-attorney/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 08 Jun 2014 08:00:45 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/08/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-states-attorney/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;My next “sign-off” is for the race for Howard County State’s Attorney, in which incumbent Dario Broccolino faces fellow Democrat Rich Gibson in the 2014 primary.  (There are no Republicans running for this position.)  Unlike the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/06/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-sheriff/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Sheriff&#34;&gt;race for Howard County Sheriff&lt;/a&gt;, each candidate has limited himself to one type of sign.  (Broccolino has both large and small signs, but except for one small detail they’re simply different-sized versions of the same sign.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;)  So on to the judging, according to the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria&#34;&gt;criteria&lt;/a&gt; I’ve previously discussed.  Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments in my role as amateur design critic.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My next “sign-off” is for the race for Howard County State’s Attorney, in which incumbent Dario Broccolino faces fellow Democrat Rich Gibson in the 2014 primary.  (There are no Republicans running for this position.)  Unlike the <a href="/2014/06/06/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-sheriff/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Sheriff">race for Howard County Sheriff</a>, each candidate has limited himself to one type of sign.  (Broccolino has both large and small signs, but except for one small detail they’re simply different-sized versions of the same sign.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>)  So on to the judging, according to the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">criteria</a> I’ve previously discussed.  Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate, along with my comments in my role as amateur design critic.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/broccolino-states-attorney-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="broccolino-states-attorney-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/broccolino-states-attorney-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is the large Broccolino sign; as noted above the small sign is identical to this.  I have to admit that when I first saw this I immediately thought, “What a great sign!”  My eye was first drawn to the dramatic upward slant of the text in the design.  Then I noticed the cleverness of the color scheme: First white on black, then yellow on black, then a dramatic switch to black on white, and then back to yellow on black again, so that no two lines of text are in the same color.</p>
<p>Besides being a good use of three of the four Maryland flag colors, the switching back and forth increases visual interest, and together with the upward slant of the design avoids the problem of visual “flatness” I <a href="/2014/06/06/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-sheriff/">previously identified</a> in the large John Newnan sign for the Howard County Sheriff race.  The white border, although relatively thin, serves to tie together the overall design and keep the black background from being overwhelming; again, compare this to the large John Newnan sign, which also had a black background but no border.</p>
<p>The sans serif typeface looks really good too; it’s an excellent choice for this design.  Note also that the typeface is slightly oblique with the vertical strokes of the letters exactly parallel to the sides of the sign, which prevents the letters from looking crooked and adds further energy to the upward slant of the design; it’s little touches like these that turn a good sign into a great sign.</p>
<p>The sign is not perfect: The “State’s Attorney - Proven Leadership” tagline is somewhat small and not that readable at a distance, even in the large sign.  Also, the “Democrat” in the lower right, which is also not that readable from a distance, seems to be there mainly to balance the composition.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> But overall I can’t fault the design choices.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/gibson-states-attorney-3024-small.jpg"><img alt="gibson-states-attorney-3024-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/gibson-states-attorney-3024-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Rich Gibson’s sign is also a solid professional piece of work.  (There are no slackers or amateurs in this race as far as signs are concerned.)  The sans serif typeface for “RICH GIBSON” and “HOWARD COUNTY STATE’S ATTORNEY” looks good and is bold while remaining readable.  The script typeface used for “Elect” and “for” is a nice contrast with the main font; it’s not as readable, but that’s not important since those words are mainly there to add visual interest.  A darker orange is a good choice for the contrasting color; it’s a nice break from yellow (which would be the typical choice) and orange text on blue is significantly more readable than red on blue.  The two vertical orange bars on both sides nicely highlight the main body of the sign.</p>
<p>Overall the sign is just a tad cluttered, but every visual element plays a role in the design, even the stylized Howard County map in the upper right corner, which balances the “Elect” in the upper left and the “for” in the lower left.  Unlike the Broccolino sign, the Gibson sign features consecutive lines of text in the same color (“RICH” and “GIBSON” in white, and then “HOWARD COUNTY” and “STATE’S ATTORNEY” in orange).  However I don’t see that as a problem, since if “HOWARD COUNTY” were omitted the “STATE’S ATTORNEY” line would be out of balance with the two lines of text above it.</p>
<p>My vote: I’ll give the Rich Gibson sign credit for a good performance, one that might have put it on top in another race.  However unfortunately for it it’s up against the Dario Broccolino sign, one that I’d easily put in the top three for best Howard County campaign signs of 2014 thus far.  I wouldn’t call this a landslide victory, but overall this is a clear win for the Broccolino sign.</p>
<p><del>This concludes my look at signs for the courthouse races.  (I did see one sign for a candidate for Judge of the Orphans’ Court; if I see more signs for that race I’ll do a post then.)  In my next post I’ll switch to the races for the Maryland state legislature, starting with the signs for candidates for the Maryland House of Delegates, District 9A.</del></p>
<p>UPDATE: Added a bit about the small Broccolino sign, and refined my comments on the large sign.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I didn’t notice this at first, but in the small Broccolino sign the dot between “STATE’S ATTORNEY” and “PROVEN LEADERSHIP” is yellow rather than black, as it is in the large sign.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Note that I may not be giving Broccolino and the sign designer enough credit here.  If I recall correctly, Republican candidates for Howard County courthouse races don’t typically put their party affiliation on their signs.  Rich Gibson is a Democrat, but his sign doesn’t identify him as such.  Thus in a way by being upfront about the candidate’s party affiliation the Broccolino sign works to put doubt in peoples’ minds as to whether his opponent is actually a Democrat or not.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Howard County Sheriff</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/06/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-sheriff/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 06 Jun 2014 08:00:31 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/06/campaign-signs-2014-howard-county-sheriff/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;OK, the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/&#34; title=&#34;Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria&#34;&gt;preliminaries&lt;/a&gt; are over, and here’s my first campaign sign 2014 face-off.  I’m starting with the courthouse races, and in particular the race for Howard County Sheriff, which pits incumbent James Fitzgerald against challenger John Newnan in the Democratic primary.  (John McMahon is unopposed in the GOP primary, and I wasn’t able to find a sign for him.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Both Fitzgerald and Newnan have multiple types of signs; I think I got pictures of all of Newnan’s but may have missed one of Fitzgerald’s.  Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate and from small to large for each candidate, along with my comments.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>OK, the <a href="/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/" title="Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria">preliminaries</a> are over, and here’s my first campaign sign 2014 face-off.  I’m starting with the courthouse races, and in particular the race for Howard County Sheriff, which pits incumbent James Fitzgerald against challenger John Newnan in the Democratic primary.  (John McMahon is unopposed in the GOP primary, and I wasn’t able to find a sign for him.)</p>
<p>Both Fitzgerald and Newnan have multiple types of signs; I think I got pictures of all of Newnan’s but may have missed one of Fitzgerald’s.  Here are the signs, in alphabetical order by candidate and from small to large for each candidate, along with my comments.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This is the basic Fitzgerald sign in its most minimal form.  Fitzgerald is using the same black on yellow color scheme (two of the four colors from the Maryland flag) as last election; in fact this sign and others appear to be unchanged from 2010.  This is a good sign in my opinion, simple, legible, and uncluttered in its design.  The typeface is nothing fancy but works well, and I like the white border.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-police.jpg"><img alt="fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-police" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-police-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign is a departure from the normal Fitzgerald sign template in its use of a blue and white color scheme and a different typeface.  It’s a nice attempt to do something different but I don’t think it really works, mainly because the star intended to be the “O” in “POLICE” doesn’t actually look that much like an “O.”  As a result I tend to read the sign as saying “PLICE FOR FITZGERALD.”</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign is essentially the small sign above blown up to a large size and with a “Police Endorsed” sticker covering the six-pointed sheriff’s star.  Possibly because it lacks the white border, this sign seems more “oppressive” than the corresponding small sign, and the blue on white sticker lightens the look of the sign and adds some visual interest.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-large-2.jpg"><img alt="fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-large-2" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/fitzgerald-sheriff-2014-large-2-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This sign is also based on the small sign writ large, this time with the “Endorsed by …” tagline at the top right.  As with the previous sign, I think the sign is improved by adding an additional element beyond those on the small sign.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/newnan-sheriff-2014-small.jpg"><img alt="newnan-sheriff-2014-small" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/newnan-sheriff-2014-small-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>Turining to John Newnan, there’s a lot to like about this small sign.  The name is nicely legible, and the oblique typeface used for the word “VOTE” adds some dynamism to the sign.  A nice subtle touch is the use of a thin red outline around both “VOTE” and the candidate’s name; there’s also a red drop shadow (<em>not</em> an outline) used for the phrase “SHERIFF OF HOWARD COUNTY.”  The red makes the words pop out from the black background and further livens up the sign.  Together with the black background and the yellow and white type the inclusion of a touch of red also makes this sign a textbook example of how to use all four colors of the Maryland flag in a very effective way.</p>
<p>My one criticism of this sign is that the phrase “SHERIFF OF HOWARD COUNTY” is pretty small, and the tagline below it is smaller still; I doubt either of these is that readable from a car moving fast.  I think I understand why the full position was used: Since the word “SHERIFF” is as long as “NEWNAN,” if it were made smaller on the sign then there would be blank space on either side of the word that would make the composition of the sign look a bit unbalanced, unless some design elements were placed at either side of it.  However I still think the tagline could have been omitted.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/newnan-sheriff-2014-large.jpg"><img alt="newnan-sheriff-2014-large" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/newnan-sheriff-2014-large-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>This large sign uses the same basic color scheme of yellow and white type on black background as in the small sign, but lacks the red highlighting (possibly for reasons of cost?). Unfortunately leaving the red out means that the yellow and white type looks somewhat flat and lifeless against the black background.  The endorsement line is also rather long and hence less readable, and the use of a seven-pointed rather than six-pointed star is somewhat jarring.  (Maybe Newnan avoided using the six-pointed star for some sort of obscure legal reason?  But he did use it in the sign below, albeit not conspicuously.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/newnan-sheriff-2014-photo.jpg"><img alt="newnan-sheriff-2014-photo" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/newnan-sheriff-2014-photo-embed.jpg"></a></p>
<p>I’ll be up front here: I am not a big fan of signs that show a picture of the candidate; I think that’s better reserved for a web site or direct mail piece.  There’s a lot going on in this sign: the candidate photo, the (barely visible) sheriff’s star next to the candidate, not one but two pointers to online information, the red and white stripes, and yet another slogan.  I think it’s all too much of a muchness.</p>
<p>My vote: I really like the design choices on the small Newnan sign.  It would probably be my pick if it had been more minimal, e.g., including just “SHERIFF” rather than “SHERIFF OF HOWARD COUNTY,” and omitting the tagline at the bottom.  However given those shortcomings, at least in this election I’ll instead vote for the tried-and-true choice, namely the basic Fitzgerald sign in its small version.</p>
<p>Tune in next time, when I’ll look at the signs in the Howard County State’s Attorney race.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="122043f0-003">Kemp Freund (kemp.freund@verizon.net) - 2014-06-26 22:08</h4>
<p>Frank - on Newnan&rsquo;s signs you commented on the use of the 7 point star. The HCSO actually wears a 7 point star but an inverted version of the one on Newnan&rsquo;s sign (which is generic clip art). Fitzgerald used a clip art 6 point star on his signs, probably because his printer had that artwork and most people don&rsquo;t really pay attention to the star in the first place. But if you look at the Sheriff&rsquo;s marked cars, their patch and the actual badge you will see a gold 7 point star with the Maryland seal in the center. BTW - did you ever see anything from the mystery Republican candidate? I am wondering if he intends to run on name recognition alone and hope that the public thinks that they are voting for the retiring Police Chief.</p>
<h4 id="122043f0-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-06-26 22:32</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to comment, and for the detailed explanation! I never did see any signs for the GOP side of this race. Maybe closer to the general election?</p>
<h4 id="122043f0-001">Cherie Beck (cheriebeck@gmail.com) - 2014-07-10 12:40</h4>
<p>Just looking around Frank&hellip;noticed the comment above. Says it&rsquo;s by me. What a surprise, since I didn&rsquo;t write it, Someone must have used my email address as a generic author.</p>
<h4 id="122043f0-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-07-27 18:32</h4>
<p>Cherie: I think I cleaned up the comment in question.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: Judging criteria</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Jun 2014 08:00:35 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/04/campaign-signs-2014-judging-criteria/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Thanks to those who sent in pictures of campaign signs for Eric Ebersole; I’m still looking for signs for other candidates mentioned in my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/02/campaign-signs-2014-a-call-for-submissions/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt;.  I’ll soon start posting my opinions on signs I do have.  In the meantime I wanted to recap some of my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/&#34;&gt;comments from last time&lt;/a&gt; on campaign signs and what I personally look for in judging them.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I should say up front that it’s not clear at all that campaign signs are actually effective in persuading to vote for one candidate rather than another.  As a &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/victory_lab/2012/01/campaign_signs_do_they_work_.html&#34;&gt;2012 Slate article&lt;/a&gt; notes, some research has shown that non-specific campaign signs urging people to vote (though not for a particular candidate) can be effective, but that says nothing about candidate-specific signs.  On the other hand, a &lt;a href=&#34;http://news.vanderbilt.edu/2011/07/campaign-signs/&#34;&gt;Vanderbilt University study&lt;/a&gt; seems to indicate that signs can be effective in promoting candidates in races in which they are a large number of candidates and voters have little information about them.  There are some political consultants who &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/21/912311/-Yard-Signs-win-elections-especially-in-THIS-district#&#34;&gt;feel strongly that yard signs are a waste of money&lt;/a&gt;, and others who are happy to advise you on &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.campaigntrailyardsigns.com&#34;&gt;which types of signs are more effective&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks to those who sent in pictures of campaign signs for Eric Ebersole; I’m still looking for signs for other candidates mentioned in my <a href="/2014/06/02/campaign-signs-2014-a-call-for-submissions/">previous post</a>.  I’ll soon start posting my opinions on signs I do have.  In the meantime I wanted to recap some of my <a href="/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/">comments from last time</a> on campaign signs and what I personally look for in judging them.</p>
<p>I should say up front that it’s not clear at all that campaign signs are actually effective in persuading to vote for one candidate rather than another.  As a <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/victory_lab/2012/01/campaign_signs_do_they_work_.html">2012 Slate article</a> notes, some research has shown that non-specific campaign signs urging people to vote (though not for a particular candidate) can be effective, but that says nothing about candidate-specific signs.  On the other hand, a <a href="http://news.vanderbilt.edu/2011/07/campaign-signs/">Vanderbilt University study</a> seems to indicate that signs can be effective in promoting candidates in races in which they are a large number of candidates and voters have little information about them.  There are some political consultants who <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/10/21/912311/-Yard-Signs-win-elections-especially-in-THIS-district#">feel strongly that yard signs are a waste of money</a>, and others who are happy to advise you on <a href="http://www.campaigntrailyardsigns.com">which types of signs are more effective</a>.</p>
<p>In any case, I think campaign signs lend a festive air to election years, and from a purely aesthetic standpoint offer interesting examples of both good and bad graphic design.  As a amateur design critic here’s what I personally look for in a campaign sign:</p>
<p><em>Legibility.</em> Whatever other attributes a sign has, at a minimum it has to be readable.  There’s nothing more frustrating than driving down a road at 30 or 40 miles per hour, seeing a small campaign sign, and not being able to figure out which candidate it’s for.</p>
<p><em>Information.</em> Assuming that the primary purpose of a sign is to promote name recognition, then obviously it needs to include the candidate’s name (full name or just last name) and the office they’re seeking, Anything else&mdash;party affiliation, slogans, icons and images, candidate picture, etc.&mdash;is arguably superfluous.</p>
<p><em>Color.</em> Some people have <a href="http://www.campaignsandelections.com/campaign-insider/385717/the-colors-to-avoid-on-yard-signs.thtml">specific recommendations on sign colors</a>.  Others tend toward traditional colors, like the American flag colors red, white, and/or blue, or the Maryland flag colors black, red, white (silver), and yellow (gold).  Many signs use other colors to good effect, and they get bonus points from me for doing that.  My main comments here are that some color combinations (like red and blue) impair readability, and that using the Maryland flag colors in an effective way can be hard if you use more than two colors at a time.</p>
<p><em>Typography.</em> Beyond being readable, I like to see sign typefaces that are clean, dynamic, elegant, and work well together (if multiple typefaces are being used) and in the context of the sign.</p>
<p><em>Other design elements.</em> Some signs have additional graphic elements, for example stars, small flags, etc.  I judge these on how well they work in the overall context of the sign: do they enhance the design, or detract from it?</p>
<p>To illustrate the above criteria, here are some examples of signs I liked from the 2010 campaigns (click on the images to see them full-size).  Note that I didn’t get pictures of all 2010 signs, so don’t consider this a true “best of 2010” list.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/bob-ballinger-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bob-ballinger-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Bob Ballinger for Board of Education (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Bob Ballinger 2010 sign</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I thought this sign for Bob Ballinger was an excellent sign for a non-partisan Board of Education campaign.  It gets the basics right in terms of legibility and conveying the essential information.  The green background color and the typeface resemble chalk writing on a blackboard and thus highlight the theme of education in a nice subtle way that avoids the design clichés common in Board of Education signs (for example, apples).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/byron-macfarlane-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/byron-macfarlane-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Byron Macfarlane for Register of Wills (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Byron Macfarlane 2010 sign</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Again, like all my favorite signs this sign for Byron Macfarlane (for Register of Wills) is quite readable and highlights the essential information.  The blue background color is pleasing to the eye and not overbearing (as some darker blues can be), while the yellow element in the upper left-hand corner adds visual interest in a nice contrast of colors.  The typeface is quite elegant and has an air of formality about it that is appropriate for a courthouse election, especially for a position involving estates and trusts&mdash;it’s reminiscent of a typeface that a bank or financial advisor might use.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/bates-miller-2010-large.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bates-miller-2010-large-embed.jpg"
         alt="Gail Bates and Warren Miller for Delegate (2010) (large)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Bates/Miller 2010 sign (large)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I thought this sign for Gail Bates and Warren Miller (for the Maryland House of Delegates) did several things well: It did a good job of highlighting the “team” aspect of their campaign.  It made excellent use of the traditional red, white, and blue colors, which with its implications of patriotism is a favorite color combination for many Republican candidates.  The typeface is bold but still readable.  Finally, the design element invoking the Maryland flag nicely filled in the overall design.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/courtney-watson-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/courtney-watson-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Courtney Watson for County Council (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Courtney Watson 2010 sign</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This was my overall favorite of the signs I saw in 2010: It was pared down to only the essential candidate information (last name and position sought, with “Howard County” implied rather than explicitly stated on the latter).  The colors were nice and complemented each other well.  The typeface was somewhat unconventional (i.e., not a over-used serif typeface like Times Roman or sans serif typeface like Helvetica) but was quite legible and conveyed a feeling of dynamism.  Finally, the design element of a stalk of wheat enhanced the design and evoked the rural roots of Howard County.</p>
<p>That concludes the preliminaries.  In my next post I’ll start looking at the 2014 signs; unlike last time I’ll do this race by race and (where possible and appropriate) pick an overall winner in each.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Campaign signs 2014: A call for submissions</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/02/campaign-signs-2014-a-call-for-submissions/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 02 Jun 2014 08:00:28 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/06/02/campaign-signs-2014-a-call-for-submissions/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Pity the poor political candidates of Howard County.  It’s hard enough running a campaign as it is, but they also have pesky bloggers &lt;a href=&#34;http://spartanconsiderations.blogspot.com/2014/05/the-eighth-inningor-whats-in-name.html&#34; title=&#34;The Eighth Inning. . .or What’s In a Name?&#34;&gt;grading their performances in public forums&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://spartanconsiderations.blogspot.com/2014/05/direct-mail-call_31.html&#34; title=&#34;Direct mail call&#34;&gt;evaluating their direct mail pieces&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&#34;http://scottesoftware.wordpress.com/2014/02/16/howard-county-council-district-one-race-february-technology-scorecard/&#34; title=&#34;Howard County Council - District One Race - February Technology Scorecard&#34;&gt;keeping track of their social media activities&lt;/a&gt;.  In an upcoming series of posts I’ll be adding to their woes by rendering aesthetic judgements on their campaign signs.  (I &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/&#34; title=&#34;Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 1&#34;&gt;did this once before&lt;/a&gt; after the 2010 elections, but now I’ll be doing it in a more timely manner.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Pity the poor political candidates of Howard County.  It’s hard enough running a campaign as it is, but they also have pesky bloggers <a href="http://spartanconsiderations.blogspot.com/2014/05/the-eighth-inningor-whats-in-name.html" title="The Eighth Inning. . .or What’s In a Name?">grading their performances in public forums</a>, <a href="http://spartanconsiderations.blogspot.com/2014/05/direct-mail-call_31.html" title="Direct mail call">evaluating their direct mail pieces</a>, and <a href="http://scottesoftware.wordpress.com/2014/02/16/howard-county-council-district-one-race-february-technology-scorecard/" title="Howard County Council - District One Race - February Technology Scorecard">keeping track of their social media activities</a>.  In an upcoming series of posts I’ll be adding to their woes by rendering aesthetic judgements on their campaign signs.  (I <a href="/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/" title="Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 1">did this once before</a> after the 2010 elections, but now I’ll be doing it in a more timely manner.)</p>
<p>In my travels around Howard County I’ve been photographing campaign signs when and where I could.  However I’m still missing signs for several candidates for local races and would like to include them if possible.  Here are the candidates for whom I do <em>not</em> have sign photos <del>; note that I have <em>not</em> included candidates who are unopposed in the primary election (like Calvin Ball) or even in the general election (like Mary Kay Sigaty)</del>:</p>
<ul>
<li>Howard County Council, District 1
<ul>
<li>David Melton</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Howard County Council, District 2
<ul>
<li>Reg Avery</li>
<li>Calvin Ball</li>
<li>Ralph Colavita</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Howard County Council, District 3
<ul>
<li>Jen Terrasa</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Howard County Council, District 4
<ul>
<li>Mary Kay Sigaty</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Howard County Council, District 5
<ul>
<li>Greg Fox</li>
<li>Alan Schneider</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Howard County Board of Education
<ul>
<li><del>Maureen Arthurs</del> (have pictures)</li>
<li>Zaneb Beams</li>
<li>Allen Dyer</li>
<li>Sandra French</li>
<li>Dan Furman</li>
<li>Christine O’Connor</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Maryland House of Delegates, District 9A
<ul>
<li><del>Eric Bouchat</del> (have pictures)</li>
<li><del>Trent Kittleman</del> (have a picture)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Maryland House of Delegates, District 9B
<ul>
<li><del>Rich Corkran</del> (have pictures)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Maryland House of Delegates, District 12
<ul>
<li><del>Brian Bailey</del> (have pictures)</li>
<li>Gordon Bull</li>
<li>Jay Cohen</li>
<li><del>Eric Ebersole</del> (got pictures)</li>
<li>Joe Hooe</li>
<li><del>Renee McGuirk-Spence</del> (have pictures)</li>
<li>Rick Martel</li>
<li>Adam Sachs</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Maryland House of Delegates, District 13
<ul>
<li>Danny Eaton</li>
<li>Jimmy Williams</li>
<li>Chris Yates</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Judge of the Orphans’ Court
<ul>
<li><del>Shari Lynne Chase</del> (have pictures)</li>
<li><del>Anne Dodd</del> (have pictures)</li>
<li>Ellen Harrison</li>
<li><del>Nicole Bormel Miller</del> (have pictures)</li>
<li>Emma Travis-Howard</li>
<li><del>Leslie Smith Turner</del> (have pictures)</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Sheriff
<ul>
<li>John McMahon</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>If you happen to see signs for any of these people in your neighborhood and it’s safe for you to stop and take a picture on your smartphone or camera, please feel free to send the picture(s) to me at <a href="mailto:frank@frankhecker.com">frank@frankhecker.com</a>; I’ll gladly give you a photo credit if you request it.</p>
<p>UPDATE: I mistakenly had Ellen Flynn Giles as a candidate this year for Board of Education.  Thanks to Joan Lancos for setting me straight.</p>
<p>UPDATE 2: I have updated the post to mark cases where I now have pictures of signs.  I still do not have signs for the remaining candidates.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="0779fb83-001">Joan Lancos (joanlancos@yahoo.com) - 2014-06-02 12:59</h4>
<p>Ellen Giles is not a candidate for BOE at this time. She was re-elected in 2012 to a four year term.</p>
<h4 id="0779fb83-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-06-02 13:08</h4>
<p>D&rsquo;oh! Brain freeze there, I will update the post. Thanks, Joan!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Promoting the Inner Arbor plan</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/31/promoting-the-inner-arbor-plan/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 31 May 2014 10:00:06 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/31/promoting-the-inner-arbor-plan/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;How can we best promote the future of the Inner Arbor plan?  I had a few thoughts following up from &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/29/on-the-inner-arbor-plan-listen-to-the-people-not-the-protestors/&#34; title=&#34;On the Inner Arbor plan, listen to the people, not the protestors&#34;&gt;my previous post&lt;/a&gt; containing my testimony at the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-glances-inner-arbor-0605-20140529,0,1940221.story&#34; title=&#34;Columbia Association, Inner Arbor hold first joint meeting&#34;&gt;joint board meeting of Columbia Association and the Inner Arbor Trust&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;“Showing up is half the battle.”&lt;/em&gt; Apparently the &lt;a href=&#34;http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Who_said_showing_up_is_half_the_battle&#34; title=&#34;Who said showing up is half the battle?&#34;&gt;original quote&lt;/a&gt; was “showing up is 80% of life,” which only reinforces the point and is coincidentally apposite, since apparently 80% of the resident speak-outs at the meeting were in favor of the Inner Arbor plan.  (&lt;a href=&#34;http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2014/05/let-do-numbers.html&#34; title=&#34;Let’s Do the Numbers&#34;&gt;Per Julia McCready&lt;/a&gt;, of the speakers who expressed a clear opinion on the plan 12 out of 15 expressed support.)  Promoting the plan online is great, but I think one speaker at an in-person meeting outweighs dozens of blog posts, tweets, and Facebook likes.  There will be other opportunities for Inner Arbor supporter to show up and let their voices be heard, whether through speak-outs or written testimony or both.  Let’s continue this practice.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How can we best promote the future of the Inner Arbor plan?  I had a few thoughts following up from <a href="/2014/05/29/on-the-inner-arbor-plan-listen-to-the-people-not-the-protestors/" title="On the Inner Arbor plan, listen to the people, not the protestors">my previous post</a> containing my testimony at the <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-glances-inner-arbor-0605-20140529,0,1940221.story" title="Columbia Association, Inner Arbor hold first joint meeting">joint board meeting of Columbia Association and the Inner Arbor Trust</a>.</p>
<p><em>“Showing up is half the battle.”</em> Apparently the <a href="http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Who_said_showing_up_is_half_the_battle" title="Who said showing up is half the battle?">original quote</a> was “showing up is 80% of life,” which only reinforces the point and is coincidentally apposite, since apparently 80% of the resident speak-outs at the meeting were in favor of the Inner Arbor plan.  (<a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2014/05/let-do-numbers.html" title="Let’s Do the Numbers">Per Julia McCready</a>, of the speakers who expressed a clear opinion on the plan 12 out of 15 expressed support.)  Promoting the plan online is great, but I think one speaker at an in-person meeting outweighs dozens of blog posts, tweets, and Facebook likes.  There will be other opportunities for Inner Arbor supporter to show up and let their voices be heard, whether through speak-outs or written testimony or both.  Let’s continue this practice.</p>
<p><em>Perception has been diverging from reality.</em> <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2014/05/the-encouragement-of-good-things.html" title="The Encouragement of Good Things">Tom Coale has emphasized</a> that the easement scheme for Symphony Woods, under which the Inner Arbor Trust was granted power to carry out the Inner Arbor plan, provides the plan a very strong guarantee of protection from interference from the CA board: “Let’s be clear - the Inner Arbor Plan is the future of Symphony Woods.  CA elections will not change that.  The vote from February 2013 became irreversible once the easement was signed, so long as the provisions included therein are followed.” Given that Tom is both a lawyer and a former CA board member, I’ll take his word on this.</p>
<p>That means that talk from CA board members about “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2014-05-01/news/ph-ho-cf-elections-20140426_1_cynthia-coyle-columbia-council-gregg-schwind" title="Ketley, Klein and Schwind elected in contested Columbia elections">going back and reworking the plan</a>,” calling for the “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2014-04-17/news/ph-ho-cf-ca-elections-klein-0417-20140416_1_ca-board-columbia-association-board-columbia-council" title="Columbia Election Candidate: Alan Klein">return of Symphony Woods to CA control</a>,” and similar sentiments is for the most part just that: talk.  In some ways the Inner Arbor skeptics elected to the CA board are like Republican legislators crying “repeal Obamacare,” who found a hot-button issue that can keep their core supporters outraged and motivated to go out and vote.  Whether they can actually keep their (expressed or implied) promises to those voters seems to be beside the point.</p>
<p><em>Reality has a bias.</em> Tom goes on to write of the irreversibility of CA’s decision: “It would be good, very good in fact, if our local media would clarify this fact for its readership.” I personally doubt this is going to happen.  Luke Lavoie and other <em>Baltimore Sun</em> reporters have done great work in providing timely coverage of the Inner Arbor plan and the controversies surrounding it.  However by the nature of their positions and the policies of their employers they and their fellow reporters at the <em>Sun</em> and elsewhere are very much locked into what some have called the “<a href="http://pressthink.org/2010/11/the-view-from-nowhere-questions-and-answers/" title="The View from Nowhere: Questions and Answers">view from nowhere</a>”: “a bid for trust that advertises the viewlessness of the news producer,” which “places the journalist between polarized extremes, and calls that neither-nor position ‘impartial.’” If Inner Arbor opponents on the CA board want to distort reality for their own political gain then I suspect their half-truths or even outright falsehoods will get duly recorded in the press without comment or contradiction, except perhaps for an occasional editorial piece in which “opinions” are carefully walled off from “reporting.”</p>
<p><em>“<a href="http://encyclopedia2.thefreedictionary.com/Use+the+Source+Luke">Use the Source, Luke.</a>”</em><sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  If folks want to really know what’s going on with the Inner Arbor plan then ultimately they need to look beyond <em>Columbia Flier</em> articles and go to the source documents.  Fortunately the Inner Arbor plan is extremely well-documented both in its features and its history.  A good place to start is the “<a href="http://inartrust.org/the-making-of-the-trust/">Making of the Trust</a>” page on the Inner Arbor Trust web site and in particular <a href="http://hickoryridgevillage.wordpress.com/2014/05/27/clearing-up-misconceptions-about-the-inner-arbor-trust/" title="Clearing up Misconceptions about the Inner Arbor Trust">Michael McCall’s letter to the Hickory Ridge Village Board</a>.  Unfortunately primary source documents like this rarely get linked to from press articles&mdash;but that’s what bloggers are for.</p>
<p><em>Where I stand.</em> That leads in to my final thought, about my own small role in all this as someone who supports the Inner Arbor plan and has <a href="/tag/innerarbor/" title="Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: The schedule">written a lot about it</a>.  The article I quoted above also had another quote about an alternative to the “view from nowhere,” a quote that I think sums up well how I approach blogging about the Inner Arbor plan and other topics of relevance to Columbia and Howard County in general: “‘Look, I’m not going to pretend that I have no view.  Instead, I am going to level with you about where I’m coming from on this.  So factor that in when you evaluate my report.  Because I’ve done the work and this is what I’ve concluded…’”</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="ab7f9d57-002"><a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com" title="divajackson@yahoo.com">Julia McCready</a> - 2014-05-31 14:35</h4>
<p>Sadly, this sort of living life in the rear view mirror appears to be catching on with the newly-elected Oakland Mills Board, who are now publicizing their quest to remake the OM Village Center for the 21st Century with the help of Cy Paumier</p>
<h4 id="ab7f9d57-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-05-31 15:08</h4>
<p>Julia, thanks for stopping by. I have nothing against Cy Paumier personally, and my opinion of his professional work is limited to his plan for Symphony Woods. So I&rsquo;ll reserve judgment and see what if anything he comes up with for Oakland Mills.</p>
<h4 id="ab7f9d57-004"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">Jessie Newburn</a> - 2014-06-01 13:41</h4>
<p>Amen, Frank. Own your perspective, as you do.</p>
<h4 id="ab7f9d57-005"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">Jessie Newburn</a> - 2014-06-01 13:53</h4>
<p>I find it fascinating the Cy &amp; Co. are trying to make their mark on Columbia, still and again. Bless their hearts. I was at the Wilde Lake Village Board meeting several years back when &ndash; I believe it was Robert Tennenbaum, Cy Paumier and perhaps another &ndash; were trying to out-tell Kimco how superior their plan for WLVC&rsquo;s redevelopment was to the Kimco plan. Both Darrell Nevin (a commercial realtor and lease negotiator for decades) and Dennis Lane (the same, but with a different niche) were in the audience; they had been asked to attend the meeting by the WLVB. Time and again, when Cy &amp; Co. said they wanted X, Y or Z in the village center design, Darrell and Dennis kind of shrugged and said (paraphrasing), &ldquo;Yeah, you may want that, but no retailer will sign a deal with that space design. Saww-reee&rdquo; So, why select members of the OMVB / OMCA board would choose Cy &amp; Co. for some sort of idealistic redevelopment vision &ndash; when clearly these men are out of touch with market trends and the current realities of retail &ndash; is beyond me and, I assume, to most anyone who bothers to look and wonder.</p>
<h4 id="ab7f9d57-001">Cherie Beck (cheriebeck@gmail.com) - 2014-06-12 18:25</h4>
<p>I will offer, keeping a door open for future plans that build on and improve the Inner Arbor plan is a generative position. To think that we&rsquo;ve come up with what is the best use of the space is also delusional. In my view, the Inner Arbor Trust is a worthwhile improvement and represents an advancement toward Columbia/Howard County&rsquo;s potential then the first plan submitted by Cy and Co. and approved by CA, which is why it displaced previous approvals and maintains an enthusiastic base of support. I would challenge anybody else, including Cy and Co. to re-imagine Symphony Woods from the &ldquo;bar&rdquo; set by Michael McCall/Inner Arbor Trust. I for one, am very interested in the next iteration of &ldquo;what can be&rdquo; as that space- not as a way to stop progress, as a way to add momentum for our collective future. I am grateful for the effort and results put forth by the team headed by Cy Paumier, it yielded a new imagining from Michael McCall. This is the kind of intergroup competitive posturing that generates prosperity for the whole. Being the rejected &ldquo;stepping stone&rdquo; proposal to a next iteration of truth, beauty and goodness does not make the previous one wrong, rather it builds a path forward. Watch out of for us vs. them tug-o-war when the battle has already been won. Leap frog, in this case, is a better game to play. Let&rsquo;s keep it going! The village centers are calling&hellip;.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The “Luke” here is of course Skywalker, not Lavoie, though I admit the coincidence is amusing.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: The schedule</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/30/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-the-schedule/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 30 May 2014 08:00:34 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/30/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-the-schedule/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In this post I look into the current schedule for the proposed Merriweather Post Pavilion renovations.  For background information see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/26/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-1/&#34; title=&#34;Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: Projects and costs, part 1&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/27/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-2/&#34; title=&#34;Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: Projects and costs, part 2&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt; of my discussion of the renovations themselves and their budgeted costs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Recall again that the costs and dates for the renovations are laid out in Exhibits A and B of &lt;a href=&#34;https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=3445&#34;&gt;Amendment 2 to Amendment 12&lt;/a&gt; [PDF] to &lt;a href=&#34;https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=800&#34;&gt;Council Bill 24-2014&lt;/a&gt;.  The proposed renovations are based on (but not identical to) the set of renovations described in the recent &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/texts/140214-draft-merriweather-physical-update-report.pdf&#34; title=&#34;Draft Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update&#34;&gt;draft 2014 Ziger/Snead Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update&lt;/a&gt; [PDF], which updated the Ziger/Snead report included in the 2005 &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/texts/citizens-advisory-panel-on-merriweather-post-pavilion-final-report.pdf&#34;&gt;final report of the citizens advisory panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion&lt;/a&gt; [PDF].&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In this post I look into the current schedule for the proposed Merriweather Post Pavilion renovations.  For background information see <a href="/2014/05/26/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-1/" title="Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: Projects and costs, part 1">part 1</a> and <a href="/2014/05/27/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-2/" title="Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: Projects and costs, part 2">part 2</a> of my discussion of the renovations themselves and their budgeted costs.</p>
<p>Recall again that the costs and dates for the renovations are laid out in Exhibits A and B of <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=3445">Amendment 2 to Amendment 12</a> [PDF] to <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=800">Council Bill 24-2014</a>.  The proposed renovations are based on (but not identical to) the set of renovations described in the recent <a href="/assets/texts/140214-draft-merriweather-physical-update-report.pdf" title="Draft Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update">draft 2014 Ziger/Snead Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update</a> [PDF], which updated the Ziger/Snead report included in the 2005 <a href="/assets/texts/citizens-advisory-panel-on-merriweather-post-pavilion-final-report.pdf">final report of the citizens advisory panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion</a> [PDF].</p>
<p>Exhibit A of Amendment 2 to Amendment 12 divides the overall set of renovations into five phases (numbered I through V).  Exhibit B assigns dates and durations to the activities associated with each phase (here numbered 1 through 5).<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> Because of the way the Howard County planning and zoning process works, Phase 1 will be handled differently than Phases 2 through 5, as discussed below.  The various renovation projects are divided between the phases as follows:</p>
<p><em>Phase 1.</em> This phase contains various projects that are less disruptive and do not affect the main pavilion structure, including utility infrastructure work, the first subproject of concessions/restrooms renovation, and replacement of windows in the administration building.  (Note that it’s not clear from Exhibit A exactly which concession facilities and restrooms will be affected by this phase.)  Design work for Phase 1 begins this summer, with actual construction scheduled to begin February of 2015 and be completed by the end of June 2015.</p>
<p><em>Phase 2.</em> This phase contains all of the work on the main pavilion structure, including replacing the seating, raising the main pavilion roof, adding two new roofs to cover the loge areas, and replacing the stagehouse (including widening the proscenium opening).  This phase also sees the completion of subproject 1 of box office renovation.  (Again it’s not clear from Exhibit A which box office will be renovated or replaced in this phase; however since the South/East box office is apparently in more need of work, it may be done first.)  Finally, this phase also includes phase 1 of the site improvements, presumable on the west side of the property (since the second phase is for the east side).  Design work for this and subsequent phases is slated to begin spring and summer of 2015 and be complete by the end of 2015.  Construction for Phase 2 is scheduled for November 2016 through March 2017, during the off-season at Merriweather.</p>
<p><em>Phase 3.</em> This phase completes the work on the site improvements, restrooms, concession facilities and box offices.  Construction for Phase 3 is scheduled for November 2017 through March 2018.</p>
<p><em>Phase 4.</em> This phase includes construction of the new dressing rooms and catering areas for performers, as well as a new stage.  Since this latter project was not included in the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report it’s not clear exactly what it entails.  This phase also includes some parking-related work, although again it was not included in the draft 2014 report.  Construction for Phase 4 is scheduled for November 2018 through March 2019.</p>
<p><em>Phase 5.</em> This phase includes only two small projects, putting a sprinkler system in the 9:32 Club and creating a new area for trash and recycling.  It’s worth noting that even though these are small projects they are both called out specifically in Amendment 2 to Amendment 12, along with raising the main roof and bringing all facilities up to code.  It’s possible that this was done in order to ensure that the called-out projects received particular priority and would not be put on the chopping block in the event of funding shortfalls or construction delays.  Construction for phase 5 is scheduled for November 2019 through March 2020, with the latter date marking the “substantial completion” of all projects.</p>
<p>Starting construction is dependent on completion of Howard County’s <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461253">review process for downtown Columbia revitalization</a> [PDF].  This 16-step process requires the creation of a Final Development Plan (FDP) and a Site Development Plan (SDP), along with an Environmental Concept Plan (ECP).  Despite its name, the FDP actually comes before the SDP, with the SDP containing much more detail than the FDP.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> Both the FDP and the SDP must be approved by the Howard County Planning Board before a building permit can be issued.</p>
<p>In the case of Merriweather renovations, per Exhibit B the planning process for the FDP is scheduled to run roughly from August 2014 through April 2015.  Since the first step in the process is to hold a pre-submission community meeting prior to submitting the FDP to the Planning Board for review, the public should get a closer look at the overall renovation plans later this summer.  Submission of the subsequent SDP should be about a year later, with the review process scheduled to run from August through December of 2015.  Assuming the SDP is approved and the necessary building permit(s) issued, Phase 2 construction (including raising the main pavilion roof) could then begin in November 2016, after completion of the 2016 Merriweather season.</p>
<p>But that raises an interesting question: Phase 1 construction is supposed to start February 2015, before the SDP is even submitted, much less approved.  How can that be?  The answer, based on Exhibit B, is that there is apparently an existing SDP that can be put through a special “<a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/DisplayPrimary.aspx?id=4294967814#Redlines">redline</a>” review process, “used when minor modifications or revisions are required for active or inactive commercial site development plans”.3 As Exhibit B notes, beginning Phase 1 construction is dependent on the suggested modifications to the pre-existing SDP being approved; otherwise Phase 1 construction would have to be delayed until the Phase 2 date.</p>
<p>This concludes my review of the proposed Merriweather Post Pavilion renovations.  Hopefully I’ll be posting again on this topic later this year when the first pre-submission community meeting is held.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="e0e4f26e-001"><a href="http://ubscratchpad.wordpress.com/" title="writeoncm@gmail.com">Urban Bushwoman</a> - 2014-05-30 12:22</h4>
<p>Thanks for sharing this!</p>
<h4 id="e0e4f26e-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-05-30 15:44</h4>
<p>And thank you for stopping by to comment! I&rsquo;m glad you found the post useful.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Exhibit B refers to “ewks” and “emons.”  I presume these terms refer to “estimated weeks” and “estimated months” respectively.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>As an example, compare the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.us/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=6442466214">FDP for the Warfield neighborhood</a> [PDF] (next to the Mall in Columbia) with the <a href="http://data.howardcountymd.gov/ScannedPDF/SDP/SDP-13-007.pdf">SDP for Warfield neighborhood block W-1, parcels D-1 and D-2</a> [PDF].  The FDP contains descriptions of the blocks within the neighborhood (W-1, W-2, and W-5) and the parcels within the blocks, what types of buildings are planned to be built, number of units and square footage, and so on.  The SDP goes beyond that to show the actual buildings planned to be constructed and the fine details of the surrounding roads, sidewalks, utilities, landscaping, and so on.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>On the Inner Arbor plan, listen to the people, not the protestors</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/29/on-the-inner-arbor-plan-listen-to-the-people-not-the-protestors/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 29 May 2014 07:27:11 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/29/on-the-inner-arbor-plan-listen-to-the-people-not-the-protestors/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Last night I went to Columbia Association headquarters for the CA board meeting that had been &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbiacompass.weebly.com/blog/and-the-revolution-shall-be-emailed&#34; title=&#34;And the revolution shall be emailed&#34;&gt;scheduled on very short notice&lt;/a&gt; to discuss the Inner Arbor plan.  Due to family commitments I had to leave before the main part of the meeting, but I was able to be there long enough to participate in the “resident speak-out” and say my piece:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Good evening.  My name is Frank Hecker.  I’m currently a resident of Ellicott City, and I’ve been a member of various Columbia Association programs.  I’ve also blogged extensively about the Inner Arbor plan, and I’m a strong supporter of it.  However I’m not here tonight to talk about my thoughts on the Inner Arbor plan; you can go to frankhecker.com if you want to read those.  Instead I want to talk about other peoples’ opinions of the plan.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last night I went to Columbia Association headquarters for the CA board meeting that had been <a href="http://columbiacompass.weebly.com/blog/and-the-revolution-shall-be-emailed" title="And the revolution shall be emailed">scheduled on very short notice</a> to discuss the Inner Arbor plan.  Due to family commitments I had to leave before the main part of the meeting, but I was able to be there long enough to participate in the “resident speak-out” and say my piece:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Good evening.  My name is Frank Hecker.  I’m currently a resident of Ellicott City, and I’ve been a member of various Columbia Association programs.  I’ve also blogged extensively about the Inner Arbor plan, and I’m a strong supporter of it.  However I’m not here tonight to talk about my thoughts on the Inner Arbor plan; you can go to frankhecker.com if you want to read those.  Instead I want to talk about other peoples’ opinions of the plan.</p>
<p>The weekend before last I spent Saturday afternoon at the Inner Arbor Trust tent at Wine in the Woods.  I had the opportunity to talk to several dozen people about the Inner Arbor plan, many of them Columbia residents, some from elsewhere in Howard County, and a few from out of the area.  Every person I talked to, without exception, was enthusiastic about the plan and eager to see it come to fruition.  They liked the Chrysalis amphitheater and thought it would be in a great location, right where the Wine in the Woods Purple stage was located.  They thought having food and restrooms available at the Butterfly was an excellent idea, and that the building itself was very beautiful.  When I explained what the Picnic Table was for they got it instantly, and thought it would be a great place to hang out during Wine in the Woods or at other times.  Finally, they even understood the purpose of the Caterpillar in providing an improved entrance to Merriweather and an alternative to the current fence, and thought it very attractive.</p>
<p>The lesson here is that while our attention has been distracted by the views of those who are vocal opponents of the Inner Arbor plan,  other Columbians and Howard County residents constitute a vast unheard supermajority who like the Inner Arbor plan and want to see it completed as soon as possible.  I suggest those of you who are just listening to the small group of opponents go out and discover the depth of support that the Inner Arbor plan has from ordinary Columbians once you have their attention and they have a good chance to learn more about it.  That concludes my remarks.  Thank you for providing me the opportunity to speak tonight.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I saw many other supporters of the Inner Arbor plan there as well, several of whom also spoke.  I hope to see others blogging about the meeting itself, as I’m curious as to what happened after I left.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="87b7f030-002">Trevor Greene (trevordentist@gmail.com) - 2014-05-29 15:03</h4>
<p>Frank, it was great to see you at the meeting. After you left, Michael McCall reviewed some details of the plan. He even included a photo from this blog and thanked you for the picture. I found that part of the presentation to be really interesting, but I think several of the people in the room have seen it before and were getting frustrated. During the presentation Reginald Avery and Alan Klein asked several pointed questions. It is clear that they were looking for any way possible to criticize the plan. At one point Alan Klein said, &ldquo;no where did it say that you were to put meandering paths in the plan.&rdquo; About 5 minutes later Brian Dunn pointed out that the planning board requested meandering paths. That shot Alan Klein down pretty good. I really appreciate how Brian Dunn points out the flaws in the detractors&rsquo; statements and backs it up with written documentation. About 10 more people spoke after McCall&rsquo;s presentation. I wasn&rsquo;t counting (this is an estimation), but I think of the 20 or so people that spoke, 17 were in favor of the Inner Arbor. One of the last few speakers said something very poignant. He said, &ldquo;We are witnessing history.&rdquo; He added that the pioneers had their time to lead Columbia and create something new. But now, another generation is taking the lead in Columbia and creating their own new Columbia. You really could feel a shift in the tone of the discussion at the meeting. There certainly were a grumpy few making snide remarks every minute or two, but a vast majority of people in the room were in favor of the Inner Arbor, and in favor of change. It was the first CA meeting I&rsquo;ve attended, and was quite exciting. I&rsquo;m really positive about the future.</p>
<h4 id="87b7f030-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-05-29 18:45</h4>
<p>Trevor, thanks very much for stopping by and writing an &ldquo;eyewitness report&rdquo;! (And of course thank you for showing up and speaking last night as well.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: Projects and costs, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/27/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2014 08:00:01 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/27/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I continue my look into why the Merriweather Post Pavilion renovations are necessary, exactly what is proposed to be done, and how much each set of projects will cost.  I conclude with the remaining categories of projects, which consume the other half of the total renovation budget.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Recall from &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/26/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-1/&#34; title=&#34;Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: Projects and costs, part 1&#34;&gt;my last post&lt;/a&gt; that the costs and dates for the renovations are laid out in Exhibits A and B of &lt;a href=&#34;https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=3445&#34;&gt;Amendment 2 to Amendment 12&lt;/a&gt; [PDF] to &lt;a href=&#34;https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=800&#34;&gt;Council Bill 24-2014&lt;/a&gt;.  The proposed renovations are based on (but not identical to) the set of renovations described in the recent &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/texts/140214-draft-merriweather-physical-update-report.pdf&#34; title=&#34;Draft Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update&#34;&gt;draft 2014 Ziger/Snead Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update&lt;/a&gt; [PDF], which updated the Ziger/Snead report included in the 2005 &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/texts/citizens-advisory-panel-on-merriweather-post-pavilion-final-report.pdf&#34;&gt;final report of the citizens advisory panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion&lt;/a&gt; [PDF].&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I continue my look into why the Merriweather Post Pavilion renovations are necessary, exactly what is proposed to be done, and how much each set of projects will cost.  I conclude with the remaining categories of projects, which consume the other half of the total renovation budget.</p>
<p>Recall from <a href="/2014/05/26/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-1/" title="Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: Projects and costs, part 1">my last post</a> that the costs and dates for the renovations are laid out in Exhibits A and B of <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=3445">Amendment 2 to Amendment 12</a> [PDF] to <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=800">Council Bill 24-2014</a>.  The proposed renovations are based on (but not identical to) the set of renovations described in the recent <a href="/assets/texts/140214-draft-merriweather-physical-update-report.pdf" title="Draft Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update">draft 2014 Ziger/Snead Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update</a> [PDF], which updated the Ziger/Snead report included in the 2005 <a href="/assets/texts/citizens-advisory-panel-on-merriweather-post-pavilion-final-report.pdf">final report of the citizens advisory panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion</a> [PDF].</p>
<p>The remaining renovations in Exhibit A fall into the following general categories, in decreasing order by total cost; the budget figures listed do <em>not</em> include soft costs.  Note that the exact scope and budget of the individual categories and projects may change based on further design work, and are all subject to Planning Board approval.  I have tried to match the items in Exhibit A with the items A through P in the draft 2014 report; however in some cases the correspondence is not exact or or is unclear.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-west-loge-area.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-west-loge-area-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather Post Pavilion west loge area"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>West loge area at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  “Concrete seating risers and masts to support West Loge tents.  Note bridge over stormwater swale.” Image and original caption from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 37 of the PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Construct permanent roofs for the loge areas.</em> This category comprises a single Exhibit A line item (“New Loge Roofs”) budgeted at $1.9 million.  The two loge areas (on the two sides of the main pavilion seating area) currently have temporary canvas tent roofs that are supported by steel masts and guy cables; according to the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, in addition to being costly and time-consuming to set up the tents and take them down, the cables impede circulation and the masts obstruct views (pages 13-14 of the PDF).</p>
<p>The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report recommended replacing these temporary tents with permanent roofs that would be visually compatible with the existing main pavilion roof, at an estimated cost of $1.7 million (item E, pages 19, 66, and 71 of the PDF).  This estimate also includes putting in a sprinkler system and adding lighting and ceiling fans.  Since the budgeted amount of $1.9 million is slightly more than this it’s possible that the plans may include seating on top of these roofs, as proposed by IMP and mentioned above.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-path-to-south-entrance.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-path-to-south-entrance-embed.jpg"
         alt="Path to Merriweather south entrance"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Path to Merriweather south entrance from the parking fields, showing relatively steep grade.  Image from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 27 of the PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>General site improvements.</em> This category includes two equal-size Exhibit A budget line items (“Site Improvements&mdash;Phase 1” and “Site Improvements&mdash;East Side”) totalling $1.2 million.  The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report referenced a number of problems with the overall Merriweather site, many related to site grades and resulting ADA compliance problems.  For example, the report noted that the footpath from the south parking areas is “not handicapped accessible, and likely somewhat difficult to negotiate for even certain able bodied individuals” and that “[a]ccess to East Restrooms remains steep and non-ADA compliant” (page 11 and 53 of the PDF).</p>
<p>The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report recommended re-grading of various portions of the site to reduce slopes and improve access, at an estimate cost of $0.7 million (item D, pages 19, 66, and 71 of the PDF).  This amount is significantly less than the budgeted amount.  It’s possible that the estimated cost in the draft 2014 report was too low (it was unchanged from the 2004 report) or that some additional work has been added.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-proscenium-and-stagehouse.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-proscenium-and-stagehouse-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather proscenium and stagehouse"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Merriweather stage showing proscenium opening and stagehouse behind.  Image from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 34 of PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Widening the proscenium and replacing the stagehouse.</em> This comprises a single Exhibit A budget line item (“Widen Proscenium and New Stage House”) of almost $0.9 million.  According to the draft Ziger/Snead 2014 report the relatively short width (67 feet) of the proscenium opening for the stage causes obstructed sight lines and degraded sound for some seats in the loge area (pages 8 and 13-14 of the PDF).  The stagehouse itself (i.e., the structure enclosing the stage) is also relatively small and lacks a grid for attaching stage equipment (page 8 of the PDF).</p>
<p>The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report recommended both widening the proscenium opening by 15 feet, at an estimated cost of almost $0.4 million (item H, pages 19, 67, and 71 of the PDF), and raising the stagehouse roof 20 feet, adding a grid, and making other improvements, at an estimated cost of almost $1.3 million (item K, page 20, 67-68, and 71 of the PDF).  At almost $1.7 million the estimated cost of these two projects is almost twice that budgeted.  I therefore presume that the recommendations of the draft 2014 report have been scaled back somewhat.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-transformer-symphony-woods.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-transformer-symphony-woods-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather electrical transformer"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Electrical transformer in Symphony Woods near Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Upgrade utilities.</em> This comprises one Exhibit A budget line item (“Utility infrastructure Work”) at less than $0.9 million.  The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report noted that “Most of the original underground utilities serving Merriweather are believed to be either reaching an end to their practical life or are in need of modernizing for the sake of efficiency” (page 12 of the PDF).  The draft 2014 report recommended replacing the electrical, water, and utilities serving the site, as well as installing new storm water management facilities and site lighting, at a total cost of $2.5 million (item H, pages 18, 65-66, and 71 in the PDF).  That figure is significantly higher than the budget line item, so presumably either the plans are scaled back from what was recommended or the work is included under other budget items.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-ada-parking.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-ada-parking-embed.jpg"
         alt="ADA parking lot at Merriweather Post Pavilion"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>“A total of 31 ADA parking spaces remain outside West Entrance gate.” Image and original caption from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 29 of the PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Parking.</em> This project is a single Exhibit A budget line item at almost $0.4 million.  It is not clear exactly what this project entails.  The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report did not contain recommendations or estimated costs relating to parking, possibly because the Merriweather property itself contains almost no parking: only performer parking (e.g., for tour buses) is on pavilion property, while ADA parking and administration parking is on Columbia Association property (Symphony Woods), and general event parking is on Howard Hughes property (where the Crescent development will go) (pages 6 and 11 of the PDF).</p>
<p>The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report recommended doubling the size of the ADA parking lot in order to meet ADA requirements (page 18 of the PDF).  This may be what this Exhibit A budget line item is for, or it may be for something else entirely.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-932-club.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-932-club-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather 932 Club"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Interior of the 932 Club at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  “‘932 Club,’ an Assembly Occupancy, requires a seasonal food permit, and sprinklering is now advised.” Image and original caption from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 55 of the PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Carry out other smaller renovation projects.</em> This set of projects comprises three Exhibit A budget line items (“Admin Windows,” “Sprinklers in 932 Club,” and “New Trash/Recycling Area”) totalling less than $0.2 million.  The historic farmhouse containing the Merriweather administrative offices has single-glazed windows that need to be replaced (draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 15 of the PDF).  The 932 Club is a small wood-framed lounge and performance space lacking a sprinkler system (page 16 of the PDF).  The property does not currently have a single dedicated trash and recycling area.</p>
<p>The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report included recommendations for projects to address these three areas, all with estimated costs less than $0.1 million (items J, N, and O respectively, pages 19-20, 67-68, and 71 of the PDF).  The amounts for the corresponding budget line items are each slightly higher than the corresponding estimated costs in the draft 2014 report.</p>
<p>The Exhibit A budget also includes $125,000 for two other line items, preparation of the master plan and FDP processing.  This expense, which is for the first year, presumably includes any expenses related to getting Howard County Planning Board approval of the Final Development Plan and Site Development Plan for all of the renovations to be carried out.</p>
<p>Finally, there are two recommended projects in the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report for which it’s unclear whether they are included or not in the Exhibit A budget.  These are item L, “Replace Stage Electrical Panels And Distribution” (pages 20, 68, and 71 of the PDF) and item P, “Replace Fire Alarm System For Main Facility And Extend To New Addition” (pages 20, 69, and 71 of the PDF), each with an estimated cost of $0.3 million.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll discuss the schedule for the renovations.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Renovating Merriweather Post Pavilion: Projects and costs, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/26/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 26 May 2014 09:00:05 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/26/renovating-merriweather-post-pavilion-projects-and-costs-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;By now everyone knows that &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-ulman-howard-hughes-20140519,0,1149527.story&#34; title=&#34;Ulman, Howard Hughes reveal renovation plan for Merriweather&#34;&gt;Merriweather Post Pavilion will be renovated&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-fy15-budget-adoption,0,7972779.story&#34; title=&#34;Howard Council adopts FY15 budget, including Merriweather fixes&#34;&gt;Howard County is helping to pay for it&lt;/a&gt;.  In this post I dive a bit more into why the renovations are necessary, exactly what is proposed to be done, and how much each set of projects will cost.  I start with the three largest categories of projects, which together will cost over $10 million, or over half the total renovation budget.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By now everyone knows that <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-ulman-howard-hughes-20140519,0,1149527.story" title="Ulman, Howard Hughes reveal renovation plan for Merriweather">Merriweather Post Pavilion will be renovated</a> and <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-fy15-budget-adoption,0,7972779.story" title="Howard Council adopts FY15 budget, including Merriweather fixes">Howard County is helping to pay for it</a>.  In this post I dive a bit more into why the renovations are necessary, exactly what is proposed to be done, and how much each set of projects will cost.  I start with the three largest categories of projects, which together will cost over $10 million, or over half the total renovation budget.</p>
<p>In his own <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2014/05/why-merriweather-matters.html" title="Why Merriweather matters">blog post</a> last week Tom Coale gave a good summary of how the renovations will be funded, but noted that he didn’t have access to the source documents.  As it turns out, the costs and dates for the renovations are laid out in Exhibits A and B of <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/GetFile.aspx?id=3445">Amendment 2 to Amendment 12</a> [PDF] to <a href="https://apps.howardcountymd.gov/olis/LegislationDetail.aspx?LegislationID=800">Council Bill 24-2014</a>, the legislation by which the Howard County Council approved the fiscal year 2015 operating budget.  (Howard County’s fiscal year 2015 begins July 1 of this year.)  The proposed renovations are based on (but not identical to) the set of renovations described in the recent Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update (of which I have only a <a href="/assets/texts/140214-draft-merriweather-physical-update-report.pdf" title="Draft Merriweather Post Pavilion Physical Review Update">draft copy</a> [PDF]) from <a href="http://www.zigersnead.com/">Ziger/Snead</a> (the Baltimore architectural firm hired to advise the citizens advisory panel).  That document is in turn an update of the Ziger/Snead report included in the 2005 <a href="/assets/texts/citizens-advisory-panel-on-merriweather-post-pavilion-final-report.pdf">final report</a> [PDF] of the citizens advisory panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>The original 2005 Ziger/Snead report recommended $19.5 million of Merriweather renovations, spread across 16 budget line items and five years.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead update to the report has a new figure of $24.6 million for renovations, including some new items not in the 2005 report (see “Ballpark Pricing Cost Estimate,” page 71 of the PDF).  Both estimates include 30% extra for “soft costs,” presumably including project overhead and other costs not accounted for in the base estimates.  Exhibit A to Amendment 2 to Amendment 12 to CB24-2014 includes 19 budget line items for a total of $19.0 million, with only 20% allocated to soft costs.</p>
<p>The most costly renovations in Exhibit A fall into the following general categories, in decreasing order by total cost; the budget figures listed do <em>not</em> include soft costs.  Note that the exact scope and budget of the individual categories and projects may change based on further design work, and are all subject to Planning Board approval.  I have tried to match the items in Exhibit A with the items A through P in the draft 2014 report; however in some cases the correspondence is not exact or or is unclear.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-east-restroom-interior.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-east-restroom-interior-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather east restroom interior"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Interior of east restroom at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  “East Restrooms remain cramped and deteriorated.” Image and original caption from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 53 of the PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Replace or renovate existing restrooms, concession stands, and box offices.</em> The restroom and concession stand projects comprise three equal-size Exhibit A budget line items across three years (“Restroom/Concession A,” “B,” and “C”), for a total of $3.7 million, while the box office project comprises two equal-size budget line items across two years (“Box Office 1” and “2”), for a total of $0.9 million; the total budget for this category of improvements is $4.6 million.</p>
<p>There are currently five restroom facilities and five permanent (as opposed to seasonal) concession stands at Merriweather; in some cases a restroom and concession stand are co-located in a single building, while others are standalone.  According to the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report only one building (“Stand Two”) contains up-to-date and fully code-compliant restrooms and concession stand (pages 15-16 of the PDF).  Merriweather has two box offices (“East”/“South” and “West”); per the report the East/South box office suffers from water infiltration, and neither box office is easily accessible by car (page 15 of the PDF).</p>
<p>The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report recommended totally replacing three of the restrooms and renovating two others that are located in historic buildings, at an estimated cost of $2.0 million (item B, pages 17, 65, and 71 of the PDF).  The same report also proposed replacing and (in some cases) relocating the concession stands and box offices, at an estimated cost of $2.6 million (item H, pages 18, 67, and 71 of the PDF).  The total for items B and H was $4.6 million, the same as the total of the corresponding budget line items in Exhibit A.  I therefore presume that these renovations will be done pretty much as described in the draft 2014 report.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-loge-area.jpeg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-loge-area-embed.jpeg"
         alt="Merriweather Post Pavilion loge seating area and wall"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Merriweather Post Pavilion loge area to the left, original seating area to the right.  “Original concrete cheek wall between original and newer Loge seating obstructs ingress/egress.” Image and original caption from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 36 of the PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Upgrade seating and raise/renovate the main pavilion roof.</em> This category is budgeted in Exhibit A at either $3.0 million (“Seating &amp; Raise Main Roof”) or $3.2 million, depending on whether the budget line item “Add: new roof” refers to the main roof or not.  It combines two related projects: The first project will replace the concrete seating base in the main pavilion area and the two loge areas to each side, and replace all of the 4,650 seats in the three areas.  Among other things, this will bring these areas into full ADA compliance (including expanding the number of handicapped accessible seats), improve circulation between the main seating area and the loge areas (by removing low concrete walls currently separating them), and provide permanent seating for the loge areas (replacing the current folding chairs).  The cost for this project was estimated as $2.7 million in the draft 2014 report (item F, pages 19, 66, and 71 of the PDF).<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-main-roof.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-main-roof-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather Post Pavilion main roof"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Merriweather Post Pavilion from northeast, showing main roof and seating area and west loge area beyond.  Image from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 32 of the PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The second project, to raise the main pavilion roof, was not included in the 2005 and 2014 Ziger/Snead reports, but was apparently part of a set of renovations proposed by IMP Productions, the operator for Merriweather Post Pavilion.  The 2005 and 2014 reports recommended restoring the main roof, including replacing the roof surface and the vertical boards on the sides of the roof, at an estimated cost of approximately $440,000 (item M, pages 20, 68, and 71 of the PDF of the 2014 draft report).  The idea of raising the main roof was suggested by IMP as a way to “improve sightlines from the Lawn and accommodate installation of V.I.P box seating and green roof lawn seating at the level of permanent roofs over the side Loges” (page 5 of the PDF).<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup>  Whether it’s raised or not, the main roof still requires renovation, so this would presumably part of the project in any case.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-dressing-trailers.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-dressing-trailers-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather catering area and dressing trailers"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Merriweather catering area (foreground) and dressing trailers (background).  Image from the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report, page 42 of the PDF.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Replace the existing performer dressing rooms and catering areas.</em> This category comprises one Exhibit A budget line item (“Dressing Room / Catering and New Stage”) budgeted at $2.7 million.  Currently performer dressing rooms are housed in various temporary trailers scattered behind the pavilion.  Per the draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report these are difficult to maintain (pages 14-15 of the PDF).  There are also two catering decks, “essentially screened-in porches” that need to be brought into full compliance with relevant codes (page 15 of the PDF).</p>
<p>The draft 2014 Ziger/Snead report recommended constructing a new two-story 15,000-sf building to house performer dressing rooms, catering areas, and various other backstage functions, at an estimated cost of $4.0 million (item G, pages 19, 66-67, and 71 of the PDF).  Since the budgeted amount of $2.7 million is significantly less than this I presume that the plans for this category of renovations have been scaled back from what is described in the draft 2014 report.  In this regard note that the line item in Exhibit A also references a “New Stage,” something not included in the corresponding item G in the draft 2014 report, which would further reduce the amount to be spent on backstage improvements.</p>
<p>In the next post I’ll discuss the remaining categories of renovation projects and their costs.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>There are actually two separate sets of projects and costs described in the 2005 report.  The first set, on pages 11-13 of the Ziger/Snead “Physical Review” (pages 95-97 of the PDF), contains ten projects, designated A through J, totaling $15.4 million.  The second set, on page 5 on the “Pro-Forma Operating Budget” (page 166 of the PDF), contains 16 budget line items totaling $19.5 million.  The discrepancy is due to two factors: First, the operating budget contains two line items relating to the stagehouse roof, $1,500,000 and $225,000 respectively, that are not discussed in the physical review.  Second, the operating budget includes additional amounts in an attempt to account for inflation over the course of the project.  The executive summary of the overall report uses the operating budget figure of $19.5 million.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The figure of $2.6 million given for item F on page 19 of the PDF of the draft 2014 report is incorrect, since adding it to the costs of the other items on pages 18-20 produces a total that does not match the total on page 21 of the PDF.  The figure of $2.7 million on page 71 of the PDF produces the correct total.  Also, the description of item F on page 19 of the PDF lists 3,650 new seats to be installed.  I presume this is a typo, as page 7 of the PDF of the report references a total of 4,650 seats, approximately 3,150 in the main area and approximately 1,500 in the two loge areas.  Similarly, the description of item F on page 66 of the PDF lists 5,000 seats to be installed.  Again, I presume this is a typo unless the plan is to remove the current general admission area near the stage (for which seven rows of seats were previously removed) and replace it with standard seating.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>Since the proposal is to raise the main roof above the level of the side roofs to be constructed over the two loge areas, the tops of the side roofs could be used for additional seating if they were designed to support this.  Some of this could be “lawn” seating if the side roofs were to be designed as “green” roofs, while some of it could be in the form of more conventional box seats.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Talking about the Inner Arbor plan at Wine in the Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/18/talking-about-the-inner-arbor-plan-at-wine-in-the-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 18 May 2014 06:00:48 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/05/18/talking-about-the-inner-arbor-plan-at-wine-in-the-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/inner-arbor-trust-booth-at-witw.jpg&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/inner-arbor-trust-booth-at-witw-embed.jpg&#34;
         alt=&#34;A picture of the Inner Arbor Trust tent at Wine in the Woods&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;The Inner Arbor Trust tent at Wine in the Woods 2014.  Click for high-resolution version.&lt;/p&gt;
        &lt;/figcaption&gt;
&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Yesterday I had the pleasure of talking about the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/23/a-better-plan-for-symphony-woods/&#34;&gt;Inner Arbor plan&lt;/a&gt; to visitors to the &lt;a href=&#34;http://inartrust.org/&#34;&gt;Inner Arbor Trust&lt;/a&gt; tent at &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.wineinthewoods.com/&#34;&gt;Wine in the Woods&lt;/a&gt;.  (Full disclosure: I paid my own way into Wine in the Woods, but I did drink three bottles of the free water the Inner Arbor staff were handing out to all comers, to help combat my hay fever cough.)  It was a fun afternoon, and prompted a few thoughts:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/inner-arbor-trust-booth-at-witw.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/inner-arbor-trust-booth-at-witw-embed.jpg"
         alt="A picture of the Inner Arbor Trust tent at Wine in the Woods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Inner Arbor Trust tent at Wine in the Woods 2014.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Yesterday I had the pleasure of talking about the <a href="/2014/04/23/a-better-plan-for-symphony-woods/">Inner Arbor plan</a> to visitors to the <a href="http://inartrust.org/">Inner Arbor Trust</a> tent at <a href="http://www.wineinthewoods.com/">Wine in the Woods</a>.  (Full disclosure: I paid my own way into Wine in the Woods, but I did drink three bottles of the free water the Inner Arbor staff were handing out to all comers, to help combat my hay fever cough.)  It was a fun afternoon, and prompted a few thoughts:</p>
<p><em>People like the plan.</em> First, and most important, without exception all of the several dozen people I talked to loved the overall plan, thought the proposed features looked great, and asked me how soon they’d see them realized.  Other people staffing the tent had the same experience; apparently only one person stopped by who had negative things to say.  Despite the impression you might get reading <em>Columbia Flier</em> letters to the editor, there appears to be a very large (albeit mostly silent) base of support for the Inner Arbor plan.  The issue right now is that most people haven’t been following events closely, and don’t have a good feel for the progress that’s been made in putting together a solid plan for enhancing Symphony Woods.</p>
<p><em>Taking to strangers about the plan is a good way to better understand it.</em> In my job I’ve worked a lot of trade shows promoting my company’s products.  Since my company is but one of many with a presence at a show, it’s important to be able to crisply sum up to people why it’s worth their stopping to talk to me instead of walking on by.  It was the same here.  In talking to people I was forced to boil down the <a href="/tag/innerarbor/">thousands of words</a> I’ve written about the Inner Arbor plan into a few short sentences.  My best attempt: The Inner Arbor plan is all about making Symphony Woods a place you’d enjoy visiting even when it’s not Wine in the Woods.  Then I’d talk about the path system and explain the various proposed park structures.  It helped a lot that the tent was stuffed to the gills with poster-sized renderings of everything.  However I found that people got confused sometimes about the renderings until I put them in context and explained more about what they were showing.</p>
<p><em>Talking about the Caterpillar.</em> People generally thought the <a href="/2013/12/08/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-5/">Caterpillar</a> was cool and liked the way it looked (again, contrary to the letter writers, who seem to have a special hate for the Caterpillar).  However I personally found it harder than with the other park features to crisply sum up what the Caterpillar was.  I think that’s because the Caterpillar isn’t an amenity that stands alone, but instead is tied up with the overall strategy of more tightly integrating Merriweather Post Pavilion with Symphony Woods.  So in explaining the Caterpillar I had to explain the strategy, which took more time.  The best short explanation I came up with is that the Caterpillar is what’s going to replace the unattractive fence currently enclosing Merriweather.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/purple-stage-at-witw.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/purple-stage-at-witw-embed.jpg"
         alt="Picture of the Purple Stage at Wine in the Woods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Purple Stage at Wine in the Woods, at the future location of the Chrysalis amphitheater.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>The Chrysalis is going to have a great location.</em> Wine in the Woods has two temporary stages for musical acts, the Green Stage and the Purple Stage.  As it happens the Purple Stage is in the exact location where the <a href="/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/">Chrysalis amphitheater</a> is planned to be built.  As you can see from the accompanying picture, the Purple Stage was a popular place for people to hang out and listen to music.  (In fact, it was apparently so popular that vendors at that end of the park were doing a booming business.)  The Chrysalis will likely prove to be just as popular if not more so, and it will be much better looking than a temporary stage.  It’s also worth noting that the hill on which people sit amongst the trees does a good job of isolating the stage visually and aurally from Merriweather Post Pavilion.  It confirmed for me the wisdom of the Inner Arbor plan siting the Chrysalis further away from Merriweather (and further down the hill) than the amphitheater proposed in the Cy Paumier plan.</p>
<p>All in all it was a fun experience volunteering, and the time went by pretty quickly (to be honest, much more quickly than at the trade shows I do at work).  The Inner Arbor Trust tent will be open again today, near the northwest entrance near the volunteer tent, so if you’re going to be attending Wine in the Woods please take a couple of minutes to stop by, say hello to the folks there, get a free bottle of water, and find out more about what’s being planned for Symphony Woods.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="727d0490-001"><a href="http://gravatar.com/ninabasu" title="nina.basu@gmail.com">NIna Basu</a> - 2014-05-18 11:17</h4>
<p>I did talk to one very drunk man who hated trees, and wanted to know what we could do to get rid of trees and their pollen. I was surprised - happily so - at the number of young people and your parents who stopped me to say they wanted to get involved to bring this plan to fruition.</p>
<h4 id="727d0490-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-05-18 18:18</h4>
<p>Nina, thanks for stopping by to comment, and thanks for inviting me to help staff the tent. I hope you all have another pleasant day at WITW.</p>
<h4 id="727d0490-003">Michael Cornell (michaelcornell@comcast.net) - 2014-05-29 10:50</h4>
<p>To those in attendance at the joint CA IAT meeting on the Inner Plans for Marriweatehr Park at Symphony Woods: I can&rsquo;t begin to express my delight and renewed optimism with the people who showed up for CA&rsquo;s meeting last night with the IAT. Your&rsquo;s are the voices we need to hear more of, marching to the drumbeat of change and vision. The energy you create and share is a highlight in my 7+ years of serving the community on the CA Board. Thank you! Michael Cornell, River Hill</p>
<h4 id="727d0490-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-05-29 11:27</h4>
<p>Michael, thanks for stopping by to comment. I was happy to finally have a chance to express my support of the Inner Arbor plan in person, as opposed to just on my blog.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A better plan for Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/23/a-better-plan-for-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 23 Apr 2014 07:00:55 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/23/a-better-plan-for-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Some people are now promoting the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/18/looking-back-at-the-paumier-plan-for-symphony-woods/&#34; title=&#34;Looking back at the Paumier plan for Symphony Woods&#34;&gt;Paumier plan&lt;/a&gt; as a way to “save Symphony Woods.”  But two years ago people concerned about preserving Symphony Woods were &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.change.org/petitions/save-symphony-woods-trees&#34;&gt;signing a petition against the Paumier plan&lt;/a&gt; and calling instead for “a unique park with meandering pathways that connect amenities and honor the natural woods.”  They couldn’t know it then, but those petitioners were asking for the kind of Symphony Woods park that will be provided by the current Inner Arbor plan.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some people are now promoting the <a href="/2014/04/18/looking-back-at-the-paumier-plan-for-symphony-woods/" title="Looking back at the Paumier plan for Symphony Woods">Paumier plan</a> as a way to “save Symphony Woods.”  But two years ago people concerned about preserving Symphony Woods were <a href="http://www.change.org/petitions/save-symphony-woods-trees">signing a petition against the Paumier plan</a> and calling instead for “a unique park with meandering pathways that connect amenities and honor the natural woods.”  They couldn’t know it then, but those petitioners were asking for the kind of Symphony Woods park that will be provided by the current Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<p>Previously I rendered <a href="/2014/04/19/how-not-to-save-symphony-woods/" title="How not to save Symphony Woods">my own verdict</a> on Cy Paumier’s plan for Symphony Woods, and relayed the verdicts of the Howard County <a href="http://static.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52c44d80e4b0f4e69d94208e/1388596608577/DAP%20review%20of%20CA%20plan%20copy%202.pdf">Design Advisory Panel</a> [PDF] and then the <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.com/home/showdocument?id=5188">Planning Board</a> [PDF].  Note that the Planning Board actually <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/publications/columbia-flier/ph-ho-cf-symphony-woods-0726-20120719,0,6116952.story" title="Board approves plan for Symphony Woods redevelopment ">approved the overall Final Development Plan</a> for the Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood presented by the Columbia Association, including having the area host a system of walkways and various other proposed features like a café, an outdoor amphitheater, a children’s play area, and (last but not least) a fountain.  However they recommended moving to a system of meandering paths rather than formal walkways, and urged closer integration of the park with the Merriweather Post Pavilion property.</p>
<p>After the Planning Board decision CA went into somewhat of a holding pattern with respect to Symphony Woods, with the CA staff <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/community/ph-ho-cf-symphony-woods-0830-20120827,0,1080408.story" title="CA might put Symphony Woods project on hold">suggesting plans be put temporarily on hold</a>, and the CA board <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/community/ph-ho-cf-symphony-woods-mpp-1018-20121016,0,1699998.story" title="CA explores agreement to coordinate Symphony Woods redevelopment ">considering more formal coordination</a> with Howard Hughes Corporation and Howard County.  This period of relative inactivity was broken with the announcement that CA had decided to <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-symphony-woods-sun-0124-20130118,0,6664632.story" title="Columbia Association plans arts district for Symphony Woods Park">adopt a new concept plan</a> for Symphony Woods proposed by Michael McCall, like Cy Paumier a Columbia resident and former Rouse associate.</p>
<p>This “Inner Arbor” plan as originally presented was <em>not</em> an exact replacement for the Paumier plan, but was instead a high-level plan for the entire northeast and eastern portion of Symphony Woods; thus it included elements (like a replacement for Toby’s Dinner Theater and a new CA headquarters) that were never part of the Paumier plan.  However since then the Inner Arbor plan has evolved into a plan specifically for the northern portion of Symphony Woods, the same area covered by the Paumier plan, and in an important sense it can be thought of simply as a continuation of and improvement on the Paumier plan, addressing that plan’s deficiencies as identified by the Planning Board and Design Advisory Panel.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/inner-arbor-accessibility-diagram.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/inner-arbor-accessibility-diagram-embed.png"
         alt="Inner Arbor accessibility diagram"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Diagram of Inner Arbor walkway system showing accessible paths.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from slide 205 of the presentation to the Design Advisory Panel.  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The best place to start to appreciate that point is not with the Inner Arbor structures but rather with the walkway system proposed as part of the current Inner Arbor plan as <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-design-panel-20140226,0,1385068.story" title="Inner Arbor plans ‘wow’ Howard Co.  design panel">recently presented</a> to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  Note that the plan fully implements the Planning Board recommendation to use meandering paths.  This allows paths to be routed to avoid trees and thereby minimize the number of trees needing removal.</p>
<p>Using meandering paths also means that the paths can follow the “lay of the land” and thus avoid steep slopes and the need for stairs as much as possible.  As shown in the image above, most of the walkways (shown in green) are from 1% to 5% grade and are thus fully accessible to people using wheelchairs or who otherwise have difficulty walking.  Most of the remaining paths (shown in blue), though having somewhat steeper grades in some places, still fall within the relevant ADA guidelines <a href="http://www.americantrails.org/resources/accessible/">as applied to park trails</a>.  Only a few paths (shown in red) have steeper slopes that might require stairs.  (One of the places requiring stairs is the entrance across from the mall access road, as in the Paumier plan, although unlike the Paumier plan this entrance is not the primary focal point of the design.)</p>
<p>The Inner Arbor plan also replaces the relatively awkward north-south alignment of the Paumier paths with a more natural east-west alignment that better conforms to the shape and orientation of the northern part of Symphony Woods.  This change in alignment allows for longer paths that provide more opportunities to walk within the park, including the more scenic forest in the eastern and northeastern area of the park, which was to a large degree a “no go” area in the Paumier plan.  This is made possible in part by an elevated boardwalk that allows visitors to enter at the northeastern corner of the park, at the intersection of Little Patuxent Parkway and South Entrance Road, near the Central Branch library and on the <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-pathway-0403-20140329,0,820710.story" title="Columbia bike, pedestrian path on target for next spring">multi-use pathway</a> to Lake Kittamaqundi.  The boardwalk carries them through the northeastern portion of the park above the forest floor, and allows them to reach the Chrysalis amphitheater over a fully-accessible route.</p>
<p>Speaking of the Chrysalis, as noted previously the Final Development Plan based on the Paumier design envisioned various park features in addition to the walkways, including a pavilion and café (combined or separate), a fountain (interactive or otherwise), a children’s play area, public art, and an outdoor “shared use” amphitheater that could be used for both Merriweather events (e.g., as a second stage) or for events in Symphony Woods proper (e.g., Wine in the Woods).  The current Inner Arbor plan makes provision one way or the other for all those elements, and (unlike the Paumier plan) includes detailed designs for almost all of them.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  Put another way, almost every element in the current Inner Arbor plan is referenced in the Final Development Plan previously approved by the Planning Board.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/paumier-inner-arbor-overlay2.jpeg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/paumier-inner-arbor-overlay2-embed.jpeg"
         alt="Inner Arbor features relative to Paumier plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Inner Arbor park features relative to their locations in the Paumier plan.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from sheet 3 of FDP-DC-MSW-1, Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood Final Development Plan, and slides 25-33 of the Inner Arbor Trust presentation to the Design Advisory Panel.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The major difference from the Paumier plan is thus not the proposed park features themselves, but rather that the park features were moved to different locations within Symphony Woods, in order to improve integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion and/or to address other issues.</p>
<p>In particular, the Paumier plan proposed a pavilion and café located halfway between the two Merriweather entrances, next to the Merriweather Post Pavilion restrooms.  In the Inner Arbor plan the corresponding structure, the Butterfly, is moved next to the Merriweather VIP parking lot, near the east entrance of Merriweather Post Pavilion, so that its shared use with Merriweather does not require opening up a new entrance (as the Paumier plan would have).</p>
<p>In the Paumier plan the children’s play area was proposed to be located in the Butterfly’s location; in the Inner Arbor plan the corresponding feature, the Merriground, is moved into the park proper, in a more natural setting.  Finally, in the Paumier plan the proposed shared-use amphitheater was to be located next to the children’s play area, relatively close to Merriweather.  In the Inner Arbor plan the corresponding structure, the Chrysalis, is moved to the east.  This takes it down a hill somewhat, providing more space for the audience and decreasing possible bleed-over of sights and sounds from the Merriweather Post Pavilion to the Chrysalis and vice versa (e.g., when the Chrysalis is used as a shared stage).</p>
<p>The Paumier plan referenced possible public art in the park.  That function is fulfilled in the Inner Arbor plan by the Merriweather Horns sound sculptures.  The fountain envisioned in the Paumier plan is not in the Inner Arbor plan proper, because the proposal is to put the fountain not in Symphony Woods itself but rather within the Merriweather Post Pavilion property as part of a strategy to integrate the two areas (as recommended by the Planning Board).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/inner-arbor-merriweather-integration.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/inner-arbor-merriweather-integration-embed.png"
         alt="Proposed unfenced boundary between Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Proposed unfenced boundary area between Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods in the Inner Arbor plan, showing possible fountain plaza and cultural venues.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from slide 201 of the presentation to the Design Advisory Panel.  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Another part of that integration is a proposal to tear down the current Merriweather fence (at least on the north side) and provide a substitute for it in the form of the Caterpillar, a tubular berm intended to separate the area of Symphony Woods close to Merriweather from the main area of the park.  The Caterpillar thus provides access control for Merriweather Post Pavilion itself during Merriweather events, and also bounds a shared space for a possible fountain and other amenities in the area straddling the Merriweather/Symphony Woods boundary, making the fountain and its associated plaza accessible to visitors to Symphony Woods on days when there are no events at Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>In conclusion: The Inner Arbor plan is more respectful of the alignment and topography of Symphony Woods than the Paumier plan, provides a better walking experience for visitors, sites the various park amenities more intelligently, integrates Symphony Woods much better with Merriweather Post Pavilion, and (last but certainly not least) requires significantly fewer trees to be removed (particularly when the park amenities are accounted for).</p>
<p>Finally, thanks to the comprehensive and detailed work that has been done by the Inner Arbor team (work that for whatever reason was never done for the Paumier plan), the current Inner Arbor plan is an example of the design excellence that can be produced by talented local firms working in concert with leading designers and architects from around the world, and meets <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2008-07-18/news/0807170073_1_columbia-association-community-benefit-howard-county" title="Central issues: Many questions still unanswered on changes to Columbia’s hub">the challenge that Del.  Elizabeth Bobo set</a> for those designing the future of Columbia Town Center:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is great anticipation in the community of bold, creative public spaces ….  Where are the grand designs that excite the spirit and capture the soul, becoming material for textbooks to train future architects and planners?  Columbia, Mr. Rouse’s “next America” and arguably the most successful new town in the world, is a perfect home for them.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This concludes my series on the Paumier plan and the Inner Arbor plan as compared to it.  In future posts I’ll briefly revisit the Inner Arbor plan as presented to the Design Advisory Panel, and comment on some of the changes since my original series of Inner Arbor posts.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="40c25797-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">Jessie Newburn</a> - 2014-04-27 21:07</h4>
<p>Thank you, Frank, as ever and always for your thoughtful, diligent analysis and observations. Your thinking helps my thinking.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>For more information see the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442473974&amp;libID=6442473966" title="Howard County Design Advisory Panel Meeting Summary, February 26, 2014">Design Advisory Panel meeting minutes</a> [PDF] and the <a href="/assets/texts/trust-mccall-dap-hearing.pdf">Inner Arbor Trust Presentation</a> at that meeting [304MB PDF].&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>To give a rough indication of the relative completeness of the two plans, the presentation to the Design Advisory Panel for the Paumier plan contained 36 slides, while the Inner Arbor presentation to the DAP contained 236.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How not to save Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/19/how-not-to-save-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 19 Apr 2014 06:00:20 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/19/how-not-to-save-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;After &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/18/looking-back-at-the-paumier-plan-for-symphony-woods/&#34; title=&#34;Looking back at the Paumier plan for Symphony Woods&#34;&gt;discussing the characteristics&lt;/a&gt; of the previous Cy Paumier plan for Symphony Woods it’s time for my verdict.  Spoiler alert: It’s not favorable&amp;mdash;not a horrible plan, but one whose key design choices left it flawed in several ways.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since I finished up with tree removal in my last post, I’ll start with it here.  As I noted previously, the number of trees requiring removal is dependent on the exact version of the Paumier plan being discussed, and was inflated by the choice of formal rather than meandering walkways in the design.  In his &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-exho-rally-will-support-2008-plan-for-symphony-woods-letters-20140411,0,742632.story&#34; title=&#34;Rally will support 2008 plan for Symphony Woods &#34;&gt;rally announcement&lt;/a&gt; to “save Symphony Woods” Paumier quoted a figure of 30 trees requiring removal, which is ostensibly one lower than the Inner Arbor estimate (but see below) and substantially lower than the figures of 50 to 60 or more trees presented to the Howard County Planning Board and documented in &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/opinion-talk/letter-editor/ph-ho-cf-letters-paumier-0802-2-20120731,0,1925820.story&#34; title=&#34;CA’s plan for Symphony Woods Park is a good one&#34;&gt;Paumier’s own 2012 letter&lt;/a&gt; to the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt;.  The key point here is that Paumier has abandoned the 2011 and 2012 versions of the plan that the Columbia Association submitted to the Howard County planning process, and is referencing an older version of the plan from 2009, a version the CA board decided later to revise.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After <a href="/2014/04/18/looking-back-at-the-paumier-plan-for-symphony-woods/" title="Looking back at the Paumier plan for Symphony Woods">discussing the characteristics</a> of the previous Cy Paumier plan for Symphony Woods it’s time for my verdict.  Spoiler alert: It’s not favorable&mdash;not a horrible plan, but one whose key design choices left it flawed in several ways.</p>
<p>Since I finished up with tree removal in my last post, I’ll start with it here.  As I noted previously, the number of trees requiring removal is dependent on the exact version of the Paumier plan being discussed, and was inflated by the choice of formal rather than meandering walkways in the design.  In his <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-exho-rally-will-support-2008-plan-for-symphony-woods-letters-20140411,0,742632.story" title="Rally will support 2008 plan for Symphony Woods ">rally announcement</a> to “save Symphony Woods” Paumier quoted a figure of 30 trees requiring removal, which is ostensibly one lower than the Inner Arbor estimate (but see below) and substantially lower than the figures of 50 to 60 or more trees presented to the Howard County Planning Board and documented in <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/opinion-talk/letter-editor/ph-ho-cf-letters-paumier-0802-2-20120731,0,1925820.story" title="CA’s plan for Symphony Woods Park is a good one">Paumier’s own 2012 letter</a> to the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>.  The key point here is that Paumier has abandoned the 2011 and 2012 versions of the plan that the Columbia Association submitted to the Howard County planning process, and is referencing an older version of the plan from 2009, a version the CA board decided later to revise.</p>
<p>If that plan is the one pictured on the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140418234802/http://www.slaterassociates.com/firm/news.html">Slater Associates web site</a> then it did not have the north-south or east-west walkways present in later versions of the plan, and the fountain was proposed to be located next to the pavilion rather than midway between the pavilion and Little Patuxent Parkway.  Reducing the number of walkways obviously would require fewer trees to be removed.  Also, Paumier’s wording in the announcement implies that the estimate for tree removal includes only walkways and not proposed park features like the pavilion and fountain (much less the children’s play area and amphitheater); adding all those features back in would require more trees to be removed.  By comparison the Inner Arbor estimate of 31 trees is for all walkways and all proposed features.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Now, back to the other disadvantages of the Paumier plan, disadvantages that exist to one degree or another in all versions of the plan that have been proposed:</p>
<p>First, in its attempt to avoid disturbing the forest area of Symphony Woods the Paumier plan would have limited the ability of people to enjoy walking through that area, which <a href="/2014/04/16/a-walk-in-symphony-woods/" title="A walk in Symphony Woods">as I previously mentioned</a> is the most scenic part of the northern portion of Symphony Woods.  From the viewpoint of a visitor the apparent intent of the Paumier plan would have been to keep you on the main walkways in the lawn area, and to discourage you from venturing into the forest area at all.  Some people probably wouldn’t have been able to go into the forest area even if they wanted to, since from the extant plan documents it’s not clear that any paths in the forest would have been accessible to people using wheelchairs or who otherwise had difficulty walking.</p>
<p>Second, the formal geometry of the walkways and the north-south axial alignment of the main walkway (present in the plans from 2011 on) were arbitrary, inconsistent with the character of Symphony Woods, and forced design choices in other areas that made the plan less than optimal.  Although it’s certainly true that the Mall in Columbia is north of Symphony Woods, and that Merriweather Post Pavilion is south of this portion of it, there is no real north-south alignment of properties and features.  In particular Merriweather Post Pavilion is not just off-access but actually rotated with respect to the mall access road and north-south walkway.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/paumier-plan-main-path-north-terminus.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/paumier-plan-main-path-north-terminus-embed.jpg"
         alt="Northern terminus of proposed Paumier plan main walkway"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Looking up to Little Patuxent Parkway and the mall access road, near the northern end of the proposed main north-south walkway in the Paumier plan.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This desire to force a formal walkway geometry onto an irregularly shaped Symphony Woods property had various negative consequences.  Since there is a drop going from Little Patuxent Parkway into Symphony Woods across from the mall access road, the main north-south walkway would have had to go down a set of stairs at its northern point, again potentially causing accessibility problems.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Since Merriweather Post Pavilion itself (i.e., the amphitheater structure) is not located at (or even visible from) the southern end of the proposed north-south walkway, the plan put a small pavilion building there to provide a visual endpoint to the walkway and a destination for visitors.  This pavilion would have been at probably the worst possible location in terms of integration with Merriweather, since it would have butted up against the Merriweather fence next to the restrooms and at some distance from the eastern and western entrances to Merriweather.  The secondary east-west walkways had a similar problem: They would also have terminated on the south end at the pavilion, well away from the Merriweather entrances, and due to the attempted symmetry with the west walkway the northeast end of the east walkway at Little Patuxent Parkway would have been located in the middle of the block, some distance away from any crosswalks.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/paumier-plan-main-path-south-terminus.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/paumier-plan-main-path-south-terminus-embed.jpg"
         alt="South end of proposed Paumier plan main walkway"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Near the south end of the proposed main north-south walkway in the Paumier plan, showing the Merriweather fence and restrooms.  Click for high resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Given the formal and circumscribed walkway geometry the Paumier plan would have offered limited opportunities to take a lengthy walk in Symphony Woods.  When I walked in the woods myself it took about 20-30 minutes not counting stops.  However in the Paumier plan the walk along the main north-south walkway would take no more than two and a half minutes even walking slowly (based on a timing I did on my own walk); a complete walk into the park on the main walkway and out again on one of the secondary walkways (or in on one secondary walkway and out on the other) would likely have taken well less than ten minutes.</p>
<p>Third, although the Paumier plan put almost all its proposed structures as close as possible to Merriweather Post Pavilion, those structures, and the design in general, were not well integrated into Merriweather.  As noted above, the main north-south walkway of the Paumier plan would have terminated at a pavilion structure across the fence from the back of the Merriweather restrooms and some distance away from the main Merriweather entrances, as would have the east and west curved walkways.  Although there is some mention in the plan documents of trying to get a gate in the fence at that point, and of needing to cooperate with the Merriweather operators and Howard Hughes (which had taken over from GGP), there was no overall strategy presented for how to integrate the pavilion and other plan features with the Merriweather property.  As another example, the children’s play area was proposed to be right next to the Merriweather VIP parking lot&mdash;not exactly an ideal choice I would think.</p>
<p>Finally, leaving aside the actual design choices, the Paumier plan seems rather underspecified for a plan that was over three years in the making.  For example, the Design Advisory Panel presentation does not show detailed draft designs for the pavilion, the fountain, the children’s play area, or the outdoor amphitheater.  (It contains only a “for discussion purposes only” concept drawing of the main walkway, fountain, and pavilion, and a couple of pictures of representative restroom structures from other parks.)  Such detailed designs were not part of the submitted final development plan either.  Granted, in the context of Howard County planning a “final development plan” is not really final in the sense most people would normally think of, since it must be followed by a more detailed “site development plan.”  However I still find it rather surprising that a plan initially conceived in late 2008 was so sketchy and incomplete as late as the middle of 2012, especially given the support provided by CA from 2010 on.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>As I’ve mentioned previously the Paumier plan was revised multiple times over the years to tweak it in various ways.  However I don’t think simple tweaks would have been sufficient to solve the problems I mentioned above, since they stem from aspects of the plan that remained consistent, including trying to overlay a north-south alignment on a park that runs east-west, using a formal geometry for walkways, and putting structures in close proximity to the Merriweather Post Pavilion property line without truly integrating them with Merriweather itself.  The Paumier plan in its various incarnations would not and could not “save Symphony Woods” except in the very narrow sense of being a better alternative to the GGP plan of 2008.  The GGP plan has been consigned to the dustbin of history, and today we can do better than the Paumier plan.</p>
<p>This is not just my opinion as an amateur architecture critic.  The Howard County Design Advisory Panel echoed these criticisms in its <a href="http://static.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52c44d80e4b0f4e69d94208e/1388596608577/DAP%20review%20of%20CA%20plan%20copy%202.pdf" title="Design Advisory Panel 07-13-2011, Symphony Woods Park - Phase 1">comments on the 2011 design</a>, for example, questioning the need for a north-south alignment: “Aside from the mall axis extension and a loose connection to Merriweather Post Pavilion (MPP) there seems to be no rationale for the path organization.” As reported in a <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-swp-0721-20110715,0,2065954.story" title="Design panel advises stronger vision for Symphony Woods Park"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> article</a>, members of the panel also thought the plan lacked an overall vision and narrative, and emphasized the need for a park that could set standards of design excellence for the rest of downtown Columbia.</p>
<p>In its <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.com/home/showdocument?id=5188" title="The Columbia Association, Petitioner, Before the Planning Board of Howard County, Md., Planning Board Case No.  394, Decision and Order">decision on the Final Development Plan</a> [PDF] presented in July 2012 by CA, the Howard County Planning Board, while approving the overall concept of a park with walkways and various features, including a shared-use amphitheater and café, focused its attention on the formal walkway geometry and the poor integration with Merriweather Post Pavilion.  It recommended that removal of trees be minimized by “aligning paths around healthy trees and minimizing grading.”  It also called for “continuing coordination between Columbia Association and Howard Hughes Corporation regarding a shared vision and design for Merriweather-Symphony Woods as a unique cultural and community amenity,” and “development of a coordinated plan for the neighborhood.”</p>
<p>Just as Cy Paumier had come forward in 2008 to offer an alternative to GGP’s plan for Symphony Woods, another local Columbian and former Jim Rouse associate, Michael McCall, subsequently came forward with his own alternative plan, which like the Paumier plan in its time was then adopted by the CA board as its preferred plan moving forward.  In my next post I’ll discuss that “Inner Arbor” plan as both a continuation of and improvement on the Paumier plan.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>In his rally announcement Paumier also claims that in fact more than 100 trees will have to be removed for the Inner Arbor plan, basing his claim on a 2010 CA study.  It’s worth noting that the Baltimore firm <a href="http://www.mahanrykiel.com/">Mahan Rykiel Associates</a> served as landscape architect for the Paumier plan and is currently the landscape architect for the Inner Arbor plan.  Since Mahan Rykiel prepared the tree removal estimates for both plans, and presumably would have been aware of the 2010 CA study when preparing these estimates, I’m inclined to accept their estimates as accurate absent any compelling evidence to the contrary.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>On slide 6 of the <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/DAP-meeting-7-13-11-copy-2.pdf">Design Advisory Panel presentation</a> [PDF] these stairs are identified as “grand stairs to transition down steep grades.”  No ramps are shown as alternatives to the stairs; presumably people arriving from the mall who were not able to negotiate the stairs would have had to go down Little Patuxent Parkway a few hundred feet to one of the other entrances.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>I have no inside knowledge about this, but it’s certainly possible that at least part of the delay was due to micromanagement of the design process (aka “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parkinson%27s_law_of_triviality">bikeshedding</a>”) by the CA board.  If a <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-columbia-board-0202-20120127,0,7304166.story" title="Small-scale ‘Bellagio-type’ fountain envisioned for Symphony Woods, CA board mulling more features">January 2012 <em>Baltimore Sun</em> article</a> is any indication, the board seemed to spend a lot of time discussing&mdash;and disagreeing about&mdash;the design details of the proposed fountain.  In this case, and perhaps others related to the Paumier plan, coming to consensus and making a final decision appeared to require multiple meetings stretched out over several months.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Looking back at the Paumier plan for Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/18/looking-back-at-the-paumier-plan-for-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 18 Apr 2014 06:00:39 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/18/looking-back-at-the-paumier-plan-for-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/paumier-paths-overlay.png&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/paumier-paths-overlay-embed.png&#34;
         alt=&#34;Proposed pathways and other features of the 2012 version of the Symphony Woods plan from Cy Paumier and his associates.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from FDP-DC-MSW-1, Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Final Development Plan.&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;Proposed pathways and other features of the 2012 version of the Symphony Woods plan from Cy Paumier and associates.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from sheet 3 of FDP-DC-MSW-1, Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood Final Development Plan.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/paumier-paths-overlay.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/paumier-paths-overlay-embed.png"
         alt="Proposed pathways and other features of the 2012 version of the Symphony Woods plan from Cy Paumier and his associates.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from FDP-DC-MSW-1, Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Final Development Plan."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Proposed pathways and other features of the 2012 version of the Symphony Woods plan from Cy Paumier and associates.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from sheet 3 of FDP-DC-MSW-1, Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood Final Development Plan.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I previously <a href="/2014/04/17/ggp-ca-cy-paumier-and-the-battle-over-symphony-woods/" title="GGP, CA, Cy Paumier, and the battle over Symphony Woods">gave my understanding</a> of how Cy Paumier’s plan for Symphony Woods won the support of the CA board and others whose opinions mattered, in large part because at the time it represented the only real alternative to a proposal from General Growth Properties that was seen as too destructive to the character of the woods.  But was it actually a good plan?  In this post and the next I leave the politics behind and look at the Paumier plan itself.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2009-10-18/news/0910160023_1_symphony-woods-cy-paumier-chick-rhodehamel">2009 <em>Baltimore Sun</em> article</a> spoke of Cy Paumier as having “long dreamed of turning Symphony Woods into a sort of American suburban Tivoli Gardens,” the venerable Copenhagen amusement park that (among other things) inspired Walt Disney when creating Disneyland.  The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tivoli_Gardens">real-life Tivoli Gardens</a> is a very intensively developed urban park that crams five roller coasters and over three dozen other rides and attractions into 21 acres, only a slightly larger area than the 16 acres covered by the northern portion of Symphony Woods.  Whatever might have been Paumier’s ultimate vision for Symphony Woods (or, for that matter, what it might yet be), his plan as proposed was not nearly so ambitious.</p>
<p>The plan evolved somewhat over the years, including a “concept diagram” in 2008 or 2009, a more complete plan presented to CA in 2009, a <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/DAP-meeting-7-13-11-copy-2.pdf" title="Symphony Woods Park in Columbia Town Center Design Advisory Panel meeting for Final development Plan, July 13, 2011">plan presented to the Howard County Design Advisory Panel in 2011</a> [PDF], and the <a href="http://www.howardcountymaryland.gov/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=6442467301" title="FDP-DC-MSW-1, Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood Final Development Plan">final development plan submitted to the Planning Board in 2012</a> [PDF].<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  However pretty much all incarnations of the plan reflected a consistent set of design choices:</p>
<p><em>The northern portion of Symphony Woods would be divided into two distinct areas, one with formal pathways and one without.</em> These correspond roughly to the “lawn” and “forest” areas respectively.  (See <a href="/2014/04/16/a-walk-in-symphony-woods/" title="A walk in Symphony Woods">my previous post</a> for representative pictures.)  The 2009 concept diagram (which can be found on slide 3 of the Design Advisory Panel presentation) shows this most clearly, with a large circle drawn in the lawn area, outlined by formal curved pathways around a central “sunlit lawn,” and a somewhat smaller circle drawn in the forest area, with irregular pathways passing through a “woodland garden.”  The formal pathways in the lawn were to be paved for general use by everyone (or almost everyone&mdash;see below), while the irregular pathways in the forest area were apparently intended to be gravel only.</p>
<p><em>The formal pathway area would have a north-south axial alignment with the mall access road leading into the Mall in Columbia.</em> In plans from at least 2011 on the main proposed pathway (in one section 40 feet wide, including a central grassy median) would head directly south from Little Patuxent Parkway, aligned with the relatively short mall access road to the north of Little Patuxent Parkway.  The pathway then would go straight across the lawn area and end just north of the Merriweather Post Pavilion property line.  Two other major pathways would run from that southern terminus to points on Little Patuxent Parkway to the east and west of where the north end of the main path would terminate.  These other pathways were to be roughly (but not exactly) symmetrical to each other.</p>
<p><em>With one exception all park features other than pathways were to be located as close as possible to the Merriweather property line.</em> At various times the proposed features included a pavilion at the southern end of the main north-south path, a café (sometimes envisioned as being part of the pavilion, and sometimes seen as a separate building to its west), a children’s play area right next to the Merriweather VIP parking lot, and a small outdoor amphitheater just east of the children’s play area.  A fountain was the only feature not to be located next to Merriweather; it was proposed as being on the main north-south pathway, either just north of the pavilion (in the concept diagram and apparently in the 2009 plan) or in the middle of the lawn area (in later plans).</p>
<p>What about tree removal?  After all, minimizing the number of trees removed from Symphony Woods was long touted as an important factor in preferring the Paumier plan to the GGP proposal, and apparently in some people’s minds it was and remains the only factor worth considering.  Although the Paumier plan was certainly less disruptive to the woods than the GGP plan (which proposed constructing multiple buildings in the northern part of Symphony Woods), the formal pathway geometry in the Paumier plan unfortunately meant that more trees would need to be removed than with pathways explicitly routed around trees as needed.</p>
<p>The estimates of the number of trees to be removed have varied among different incarnations of the Paumier plan.  In the recent <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-exho-rally-will-support-2008-plan-for-symphony-woods-letters-20140411,0,742632.story" title="Rally will support 2008 plan for Symphony Woods ">announcement of his April 19 rally</a> Cy Paumier claimed that “Only 30 existing trees were to be removed to implement the walkway plan that was approved by the Columbia Association Board in 2009.” Note that the 2009 plan referred to is <em>not</em> the plan that was actually submitted into the Howard County planning process, but an earlier plan that was later revised.  Also, based on the wording of Paumier’s statement this figure of 30 trees removed was apparently for walkways only and not for park features.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>In a July 2012 <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/opinion-talk/letter-editor/ph-ho-cf-letters-paumier-0802-2-20120731,0,1925820.story" title="CA’s plan for Symphony Woods Park is a good one">letter to the <em>Baltimore Sun</em></a> Cy Paumier wrote that “Between 50 and 60 trees will need to be removed to construct the Symphony Woods Park walkways.” This figure is for the design submitted to the Planning Board.  At the actual <a href="http://static.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52c461e8e4b0d9c93d53868a/1388601832748/Planning%20Board%20Decision%20and%20Order%209:6:12.pdf">Planning Board hearing</a> three weeks before, Charlie Bailey of Mahan Rykiel Associates (the landscape architects for the plan) testified that “the current design predicts a worst-case scenario of 64 trees to be removed within the 16.1 acre project area.” Note that again these figures do not include any trees removed for construction of the proposed park structures.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>I’ll take a breather now and return tomorrow with my verdict on the Paumier plan.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I’m not aware of any definitive online source for the 2009 plan presented to CA.  If anyone can point me to relevant documents I’d be glad to add links to them.  (I did find a <a href="http://www.slaterassociates.com/firm/news.html">Slater Associates web page</a> that may preserve an image of this plan.)  There apparently also were additional plan versions considered by the CA board, but I can’t find online public documents about them either.  Finally, there were plan diagrams included with the presentation to the 2011 pre-submission community meeting prior to the Design Advisory Panel meeting; they were apparently identical to the ones presented at the DAP meeting.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>I could not find any independent public record of estimates on tree removal for the 2009 plan.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>By comparison the current Inner Arbor estimate (as contained in the latest <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/1od1rwed2tp52bt/MPSW%20by%20Numbers%20140406.pdf">“by the numbers” document</a> [174MB PDF]) is for 31 trees to be removed for construction of all walkways and all proposed park structures.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>GGP, CA, Cy Paumier, and the battle over Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/17/ggp-ca-cy-paumier-and-the-battle-over-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 17 Apr 2014 07:00:11 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/17/ggp-ca-cy-paumier-and-the-battle-over-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;After &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/16/a-walk-in-symphony-woods/&#34; title=&#34;A walk in Symphony Woods&#34;&gt;walking in Symphony Woods&lt;/a&gt; last weekend I wondered again how the woods might best be preserved and enhanced for everyone in Columbia and Howard County to enjoy.  This weekend former Columbia planner &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbiablogproject.blogspot.com/2009/04/cy-paumier.html&#34;&gt;Cy Paumier&lt;/a&gt; will be heading into Symphony Woods himself to &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-exho-rally-will-support-2008-plan-for-symphony-woods-letters-20140411,0,742632.story&#34;&gt;promote a plan&lt;/a&gt; to “save Symphony Woods”&amp;mdash;essentially an attempt to revive support for his own Symphony Woods design, originally proposed in 2008.  That design was the Columbia Associations’s preferred proposal for Symphony Woods for quite a while, and plans based on it went partly through the Howard County planning process before receiving criticism from the Howard County Design Advisory Panel and Planning Board and then being rejected by the CA board in favor of the Inner Arbor plan.  Since Paumier’s plan has been recently and repeatedly brought up by people opposed to the Inner Arbor plan I thought it was worth a closer look, if only to highlight why (in my opinion) the Inner Arbor plan is superior.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After <a href="/2014/04/16/a-walk-in-symphony-woods/" title="A walk in Symphony Woods">walking in Symphony Woods</a> last weekend I wondered again how the woods might best be preserved and enhanced for everyone in Columbia and Howard County to enjoy.  This weekend former Columbia planner <a href="http://columbiablogproject.blogspot.com/2009/04/cy-paumier.html">Cy Paumier</a> will be heading into Symphony Woods himself to <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-exho-rally-will-support-2008-plan-for-symphony-woods-letters-20140411,0,742632.story">promote a plan</a> to “save Symphony Woods”&mdash;essentially an attempt to revive support for his own Symphony Woods design, originally proposed in 2008.  That design was the Columbia Associations’s preferred proposal for Symphony Woods for quite a while, and plans based on it went partly through the Howard County planning process before receiving criticism from the Howard County Design Advisory Panel and Planning Board and then being rejected by the CA board in favor of the Inner Arbor plan.  Since Paumier’s plan has been recently and repeatedly brought up by people opposed to the Inner Arbor plan I thought it was worth a closer look, if only to highlight why (in my opinion) the Inner Arbor plan is superior.</p>
<p>After reading past new articles and planning documents about the Paumier plan and downtown Columbia redevelopment in general, I’ve concluded that it’s impossible to discuss the plan without considering the context in which it was originally proposed.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  As I noted in a <a href="/2014/04/11/five-thoughts-on-symphony-woods/" title="Five thoughts on Symphony Woods">previous post</a>, Jim Rouse inadvertently planted the seeds of future controversies when the Rouse Company deeded the Symphony Woods property to the Columbia Association while retaining ownership of the Merriweather Post Pavilion property inside Symphony Woods and the Crescent property outside of it.  This didn’t cause any problems as long as CA and the Rouse Company were in sync and the Crescent property remained undeveloped.  However after Jim Rouse died, the Rouse Company was acquired by General Growth Properties, and GGP subsequently attempted to more intensively develop its downtown Columbia properties, the stage was set for conflict between a more independent CA and a GGP perceived as an outsider to Columbia.</p>
<p>In the spring of 2008 <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2008-05-05/features/0805050225_1_columbia-rouse-town-center">GGP proposed a vision for Columbia Town Center</a> that included as a main feature a “pedestrian-friendly ‘cultural spine’ between The Mall in Columbia and the Merriweather Post Pavilion.” <a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/7837/vision-downtown-unveiledcolumbia-plan-calls-revamped-mall/" title="Vision for downtown unveiled, Columbia plan calls for revamped mall">As presented by GGP officials</a> the ‘spine’ would terminate in a renovated Merriweather and a newly-developed Symphony Woods:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Developers would raise the venue’s roof, build a new stage, provide new backstage facilities for artists, extend the covered seating area and upgrade the concession and restroom areas.</p>
<p>The pavilion also would serve as the center of an arts and cultural hub that could eventually include a museum, an enhanced central public library, an international center dedicated to the study of small cities, and a Symphony Woods park redesigned to make it more accessible and useful to residents.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Also mentioned as possibilities were a “a skating rink, … a new home for Toby’s Dinner Theatre, a hotel [on Little Patuxent Parkway] and possible new quarters for the Columbia Association and Columbia Archives.”</p>
<p>This was all well and good, but as it happened the land on which much of this new development was proposed to be constructed was actually owned by CA, not by GGP.  Given that relations between the CA board and GGP were already somewhat strained, the <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2008-05-26/news/0805250194_1_merriweather-downtown-columbia-symphony-woods">reaction from CA board members</a> to GGP’s proposal was pretty much as one would expect: For example, CA board chair Barbara Russell complained that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>My fear that GGP would want to put amenities on our land&mdash;that’s exactly what they were showing.  … I do not think that developing Symphony Woods by gobbling up the land with buildings, parking areas and roads is a good idea.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>GGP’s plans also sparked a backlash among some Columbia activists, with Alan Klein sponsoring a <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2008-11-02/news/0810310043_1_general-growth-plan-for-downtown-ggp">meeting to discuss alternative proposals</a>.  Klein complained that the GGP plan would “destroy, not restore” Symphony Woods by removing 40 percent of its trees, and noted that children’s parks and a fountain were more appropriate uses for the property.  This meeting apparently marked the first public discussion of a new proposal by Cy Paumier and others for Symphony Woods, emphasizing its development as “user-friendly parkland.”  As GGP continued to promote building <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2009-01-11/news/0901080206_1_county-planners-general-growth-properties-howard-county">new buildings in the north of Symphony Woods</a>, the Pauimer proposal (originally developed on a pro bono basis) gained favor with the CA board and eventually <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2009-08-09/news/0908070035_1_symphony-woods-trees-merriweather">became the basis of a CA proposal</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/65553/symphony-woods-let-there-be-light-food-water/" title="Symphony Woods: Let there be light, food, water ">As presented by CA</a>, under the new plan</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[Symphony Woods] would become a park with a fountain-type water display and a small café surrounded by paved pathways.  The woods’ dense canopy would be thinned in certain areas to provide for “pockets” of sunlight, according to planners.</p>
<p>In addition, the park would have a more visible entry plaza off Little Patuxent Parkway, a woodland garden with crushed stone pathways, a children’s play area with sculptures, rest rooms and a 150-space parking lot, …</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Once adopted by CA the Paumier plan gained other supporters as well.  The <a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/65653/our-view-symphony-woods/" title="Our View: Symphony Woods"><em>Columbia Flier</em> advocated it</a> as a better match for Sympony Woods: “A middle ground between completely passive parkland and a cultural campus makes the most sense for all concerned.  Of the two visions offered, the CA plan comes closer to that ideal.” Howard County’s legislative delegation <a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/71677/ca-thanks-state-reps-support-downtown-park/" title="CA thanks state reps for support for downtown park">secured a $250,000 Maryland state grant</a> to CA to help implement the plan, with further support promised from an unnamed nonprofit organization.</p>
<p>By this time GGP had conceded defeat and abandoned its own plan for Symphony Woods.  However <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2009-12-06/news/0912040031_1_symphony-woods-ggp-gregory-f-hamm" title="Tension Surfaces Over Pavilion At Council Meeting, Kirsch And GGP Official Clash After Discussion About Downtown">relations remained strained</a> between CA and GGP, and apparently a potent narrative had lodged in some people’s minds: That outsiders were bent on destroying Symphony Woods in the course of pursuing their own designs on it, and only “true” Columbians like Cy Paumier and his associates, Alan Klein and other activists, and others in and out of CA could be relied upon to thwart them.  Part of the narrative was an intense focus on the question of exactly how many trees were to be removed from Symphony Woods, so intense that when it was necessary to remove 18 damaged trees <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2009-08-09/news/0908070035_1_symphony-woods-trees-merriweather" title="CA Treads Lightly On Tree Plan">CA felt compelled to reassure residents</a> that it was not part of a Symphony Woods redevelopment initiative.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Thus the Paumier plan became the consensus plan for Symphony Woods, its status as the only proposed alternative to GGP’s widely-disliked plan making its success to a large degree independent of the merits of the design itself.  But was it (and is it) actually a good design?  I’ll give my thoughts on that question in the next post.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I wasn’t directly involved in events around Columbia Town Center development, so my comments are based on published reports in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> and <em>Columbia Flier</em>.  (I will also note here that the <a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/columbia-flier/"><em>Columbia Flier</em> archive search function</a> for the period in question is completely broken, which is why I’m not linking to more <em>Flier</em> stories.)  If you have personal knowledge you’d like to add, or corrections you want to note, please feel free to submit a comment.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Both the “outsiders vs. Columbians” narrative and the intense focus on tree removal continue to shape the debate over the future of Symphony Woods, as I’ll discuss in future posts.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A walk in Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/16/a-walk-in-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 16 Apr 2014 07:00:53 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/16/a-walk-in-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/symphony-woods-forest-view1.jpg&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/symphony-woods-forest-view1-embed.jpg&#34;
         alt=&#34;View of Symphony Woods looking west&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;View through Symphony Woods looking west to Merriweather Post Pavilion, showing the more forested portion of the area.  Click for high-resolution version.&lt;/p&gt;
        &lt;/figcaption&gt;
&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Last Saturday morning I took a walk through Symphony Woods.  Besides having a nice walk I gained a new appreciation for the Inner Arbor plan, as well as a better understanding of both the apparent goals and the shortcomings of other plans that have been proposed for the woods.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/symphony-woods-forest-view1.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/symphony-woods-forest-view1-embed.jpg"
         alt="View of Symphony Woods looking west"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>View through Symphony Woods looking west to Merriweather Post Pavilion, showing the more forested portion of the area.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Last Saturday morning I took a walk through Symphony Woods.  Besides having a nice walk I gained a new appreciation for the Inner Arbor plan, as well as a better understanding of both the apparent goals and the shortcomings of other plans that have been proposed for the woods.</p>
<p>Leaving aside stops to take pictures and some doubling back, the walk took me about 20 to 30 minutes, starting at the east side of Symphony Woods near the Central Branch of the Howard County Library System, going across the northeast portion of the woods near the intersection of South Entrance Road with Little Patuxent Parkway, through the northern portion of the woods bordering Little Patuxent Parkway, over to Merriweather Post Pavilion and back, and then returning.  This was the first time I had walked through the woods when I wasn’t attending some event, and I had a chance to reflect on the nature of the area.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/symphony-woods-mixed-view.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/symphony-woods-mixed-view-embed.jpg"
         alt="View of Symphony woods showing mixed landscape"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>View through Symphony Woods looking southwest to Merriweather Post Pavilion, showing mixed forest and lawn landscapes.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>My first thought was that Symphony Woods is really two woods in one.  As noted above, I entered the woods near the library.  It’s not a particularly convenient way to enter the woods (among other things it requires jumping across a small stream) but it has the advantage of being quite scenic&mdash;more like a forest than the parts of the woods most visitors see.  The topography is relatively rough, with a small stream valley, and the ground more like what you expect in a forest, including leaves and downed limbs and even (in one case) an entire fallen tree.  However at the same time it’s obvious that Symphony Woods is not an isolated woodland: You can easily look up and see office buildings across Little Patuxent Parkway, and there’s a low but consistent hum of traffic.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/symphony-woods-lawn-view.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/symphony-woods-lawn-view-embed.jpg"
         alt="View of Symphony Woods lawn area, looking south to Merriweather Post Pavilion"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Symphony Woods looking south from near Little Patuxent Parkway to Merriweather Post Pavilion, showing the grassy lawn in this area.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As I moved across the park the landscape became less forest-like and more lawn-like.  In the northern portion of the woods, between Little Patuxent Parkway and Merriweather Post Pavilion, the woods loses its forest character entirely and resembles nothing so much as a big suburban lawn with a number of trees on it.  The area is relatively flat and devoid of pretty much anything other than tree trunks and grass; it looks a bit beaten down, which I guess is to be expected given the number of people who walk across it.</p>
<p>I stopped at the northwest corner of Symphony Woods, at the entrance drive to Merriweather Post Pavilion.  Although there is more wooded land to the west bordering Little Patuxent Parkway and extending to the corner of Broken Land Parkway, it is not part of Symphony Woods itself, i.e., the Columbia Association property.  Instead it is Howard Hughes property that is proposed to be developed as general office space as part of the Crescent project.  Crescent Area 4 begins just west of the Merriweather entrance drive; Area 1 is beyond that, bordering Broken Land Parkway.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/crescent-area-4.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/crescent-area-4-embed.jpg"
         alt="Crescent Area 4 as viewed from Symphony Woods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Crescent Area 4 as viewed from the northwest corner of Symphony Woods, looking across the Merriweather Post Pavilion entrance drive toward Little Patuxent Parkway.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I then doubled back toward Merriweather Post Pavilion, walking all the way up to the fence that marks the boundary line between Symphony Woods proper and the Merriweather Post Pavilion property (currently owned by the Howard Hughes Corporation).  What I found interesting about this portion of the walk is that the portion of Symphony Woods immediately bordering the fence doesn’t actually feel like Symphony Woods itself, but rather like an extension of the Merriweather Post Pavilion property.  The fence is quite off-putting, and I felt somewhat nervous as I approached it, as if armed guards were about to come out and shoo me away.  (A posted sign stating “This area under video surveillance” didn’t help my mood.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-fence.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-fence-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather Post Pavilion fence as viewed from Symphony Woods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Merriweather Post Pavilion fence and outbuildings, as viewed from Symphony Woods looking south.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>However no one made an appearance, and not just at the Merriweather fence.  The park was utterly empty throughout my entire walk, with not a soul to be seen.  Symphony Woods in a sense has a split personality: occasionally overrun with people attending events, and completely devoid of visitors during the rest of the year.  This seems a great shame given the natural beauty of the woods, especially in the forested area of the park.  How could Symphony Woods be an area that everyone can (and does) enjoy on an ongoing basis?  I’ll write more about that in my next post.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="d2f68d1c-001">Chris Tsien (christsien@verizon.net) - 2014-04-16 13:26</h4>
<p>Now you are the second person (after me) who has wandered through the mid-week Symphony Woods. I walk through a couple times a month (my office is in the Symphony Woods office building) and am completely alone unless my officemate is with me. Sorry, but SW is not a &ldquo;forest&rdquo;; not enough diversity for that moniker. It is, at best, some trees punctuated by scrub, i.e., a glorified suburban, McMansion lawn.</p>
<h4 id="d2f68d1c-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-04-16 22:39</h4>
<p>Chris, thanks for reading the blog and stopping by to comment! I agree with your point about lack of diversity in the woods; I&rsquo;m actually curious now and will have to go look through the Inner Arbor DAP presentation again to check on proposed forest revitalization efforts.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Five thoughts on Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/11/five-thoughts-on-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 11 Apr 2014 06:00:26 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/11/five-thoughts-on-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;When I was writing my post on &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/09/symphony-woods-and-sacred-lands/&#34;&gt;Symphony Woods and sacred lands&lt;/a&gt; I had a number of thoughts that were too long to put in that post and too short to each deserve a post of their own.  So here they are, all collected together:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/15-reality-checks.png&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/15-reality-checks-embed.png&#34;
         alt=&#34;15 reality checks on the Inner Arbor plan&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;“15 Reality Checks on the Plan” from the Inner Arbor Trust.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from “Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods: By the Numbers,” © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When I was writing my post on <a href="/2014/04/09/symphony-woods-and-sacred-lands/">Symphony Woods and sacred lands</a> I had a number of thoughts that were too long to put in that post and too short to each deserve a post of their own.  So here they are, all collected together:</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/15-reality-checks.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/15-reality-checks-embed.png"
         alt="15 reality checks on the Inner Arbor plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>“15 Reality Checks on the Plan” from the Inner Arbor Trust.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from “Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods: By the Numbers,” © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>Sacred lands and the facts don’t always get along.</em> Recently the Inner Arbor Trust released a document (“<a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/1od1rwed2tp52bt/MPSW%20by%20Numbers%20140406.pdf">Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods: By the Numbers</a>” [PDF]) that attempts to correct misconceptions about the Inner Arbor plan.  It’s a good document (though at almost 180MB it takes a while to download), and if and when I have time I’ll blog more about it in detail.  However I suspect it’s also probably a wasted effort as far as many people are concerned: When people come to think of land as sacred they often stop thinking about the reality of the land as opposed to its sanctity, and the facts are then often ignored, overlooked, or distorted.</p>
<p>For example, in my last post I wrote about a controversy in New York City relating to 9/11; you have probably heard it referred to as “the mosque at Ground Zero,” but in fact it was neither: not an actual mosque but an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Park51">Islamic community center</a> with a prayer space (albeit a fairly large one), and not at Ground Zero but rather two blocks away.  But the emotion around the 9/11 attacks was (and is) so intense that the juxtaposition of “mosque” and “Ground Zero” was much more memorable than the actual reality, and once that juxtaposition lodged in people’s minds it was difficult to impossible to get it out.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p><em>Those who preach a land’s sanctity aren’t always saints.</em> Going back to the example above, did people just happen to innocently get the facts wrong and decide a mosque was going to be built right where the twin towers stood?  Well, no, not exactly.  There were plenty of people who worked to actively spread this idea because they themselves stood to benefit if others believed it were true: news channels trying to increase their ratings, politicians trying to attract votes, advocacy groups trying to raise money, and so on.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/inner-arbor-trees-removed-and-planted.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/inner-arbor-trees-removed-and-planted-embed.png"
         alt="Map of trees to be removed and planted as part of the Inner Arbor plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>A map of the trees to be removed as part of the Inner Arbor plan.  Click for high-resolution version.  Adapted from “Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods: By the Numbers,” © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>There’s no reason why Columbia should be exempt from this phenomenon, and based on reports from others some reasons to think that Columbia and CA have their own versions of it.  (For example, consider <a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2014/04/ghosts-of-elections-past.html" title="Ghosts of Elections Past">the case of the elderly CA voter</a> who was convinced Julia McCready was running for the CA board in order to run old people out of Columbia.)  I would not be surprised to hear that some Columbians are now firmly of the opinion that the Inner Arbor plan will result in wholesale cutting of trees in Symphony Woods, because someone else saw fit to put that idea in their heads.  (In actual fact the Inner Arbor plan as proposed will result in many fewer trees being removed than in the previous Columbia Association plan, also known as the Cy Paumier plan after its lead designer.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>)</p>
<p><em>This is all Jim Rouse’s fault, really.</em> Recently <a href="http://columbiablogproject.blogspot.com/2009/02/columbias-architect-robert-tennenbaum_27.html">Robert Tennenbaum</a>, the former chief architect and planner for Columbia, <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2014-03-21/news/bs-ed-rouse-park-20140321_1_symphony-woods-park-inner-arbor-design-panel" title="Honor Rouse’s vision for Symphony Woods Park">quoted Jim Rouse’s words</a> about Symphony Woods from the 1964 presentation “<a href="http://issuu.com/columbiaarchives/docs/columbia_a_new_town">Columbia: A New Town for Howard County</a>”: “Today a magnificent stand of trees, this 40 acre woods will be permanently preserved and cultivated as a quiet, convenient and strikingly beautiful asset of the town.” All well and good; however I think it’s also useful to consider what Jim Rouse did and not just what he said.</p>
<p>First, as I’ve <a href="/2014/04/09/symphony-woods-and-sacred-lands/" title="Two visions for Symphony Woods">previously mentioned</a>, Jim Rouse saw fit to put a large outdoor amphitheater smack in the middle of the “magnificent stand of trees” in question.  Second, Jim Rouse also saw fit for the Rouse Co.  to retain ownership of the Crescent property surrounding Symphony Woods, as opposed to deeding it to CA or to the county.  Did he do this because he planned for that property to be “permanently preserved and cultivated as a quiet, convenient and strikingly beautiful asset of the town”?  Given that Rouse was a canny and successful businessman, I presume instead that he did it because the Crescent was a potentially-valuable piece of centrally-located property that the Rouse Co.  or its successors could at some point profitably develop for high-density office, retail, or residential use.</p>
<p>So if you’re concerned that “Symphony Woods” (i.e., including the wooded area next to US 29 and Broken Land Parkway) will soon start looking much smaller, and that Symphony Woods itself (i.e., the CA property) is going to be across the street from 20-story condo towers, be aware that this is not because evil outsiders invaded Columbia and betrayed Jim Rouse’s vision, it’s because Rouse himself took the actions that made these developments possible, and perhaps inevitable.  (However, in Rouse’s defense there are in fact areas in the Crescent that will remain undeveloped, for example between Area 1 and Area 2 and between Area 2 and Area 3.  So more woods will remain than one might think, and it’s possible that given appropriate easements and paths that they could be used as an extension of Symphony Woods itself.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-symphony-woods-fdp-page-3.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-symphony-woods-fdp-page-3-embed.png"
         alt="Cy Paumier plan for Symphony Woods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Cy Paumier plan for Symphony Woods showing park features proposed to be constructed.  Click for high-resolution version.  Image adapted from FDP-DC-MSW-1, Downtown Columbia Merriweather-Symphony Woods Neighborhood Final Development Plan.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p><em>There is no “let’s not build stuff” plan for Symphony Woods.</em> Many people think of the choice for Symphony Woods as between a new plan involving radical changes and a prior plan preserving Symphony Woods pretty much as is.  This is in fact not the case: The previous CA plan by Cy Paumier envisioned as many new park features in Symphony Woods as the Inner Arbor plan, just in different places.  To be specific, as <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.org/home/showdocument?id=5188" title="The Columbia Association, Petitioner, Before the Planning Board of Howard County, Md., Planning Board Case No.  394, Decision and Order ">presented to the Howard County Planning Board</a> [PDF] the plan “proposed future parkland improvements, including a network of pathways, a fountain, a shared use pavilion, a shared use amphitheater, a shared use cafe, play activity area, woodland garden area, [and] parking within a 16.1 acre project area ….”</p>
<p>Almost all of these features have direct counterparts in the Inner Arbor plan: The shared use amphitheater became the Chrysalis, the shared use café and pavilion were combined to become the Butterfly, and the play activity area became the Merriground.  The Inner Arbor plan has no fountain in Symphony Woods proper, but the Inner Arbor Trust has proposed locating one in a plaza next to Merriweather Post Pavilion.  The Paumier plan had no equivalent to the Caterpillar, presumably because unlike the Inner Arbor plan the Paumier plan assumed that Symphony Woods would be closed to the general public during most Merriweather events.  (A primary purpose of the Caterpillar is to control Merriweather access closer to the pavilion itself, rather than at the park boundaries.)  There also was no direct equivalent to the Merriweather Horns in the Paumier plan, although the plan did state that “[The] entire park is a potential site for future public art.”</p>
<p><em>Being “Disneyesque” is not necessarily a bad thing.</em> One of the persistent charges against the Inner Arbor plan is that it is “Disneyesque” and turns Symphony Woods into an “amusement park” with “attractions” (in scare quotes) unsuitable for the wooded setting.  This seems an odd accusation for several reasons.  First, as noted above the Paumier plan had pretty much the same set of “attractions” as the Inner Arbor plan.  Second, given that Jim Rouse was apparently quite the admirer of Walt Disney&mdash;<a href="http://samlanddisney.blogspot.com/2010/03/moment-with-walt-disney.html" title="A moment with Walt Disney">he said in 1963</a> that “the greatest piece of urban design in the United States today is Disneyland”&mdash;I suspect he would have thought the term “Disneyesque” to be more a compliment than an insult.</p>
<p>In fact, I’d go so far as to say that preserving Symphony Woods for future generations to enjoy will require more than a bit of the same sort of design thinking that went into Walt Disney’s theme parks.  In particular, once the Crescent property is developed the remaining area of Symphony Woods is going to seem relatively small: the Inner Arbor plan preserves almost 80% of Symphony Woods as a natural wooded area, but that’s still only 14 acres or so&mdash;about the size of a small subdivision in western Howard County (land of 3-acre lots).  A prime task is then to make Symphony Woods seem bigger to visitors than it actually is&mdash;the same problem faced by theme parks like Disneyland, and one that their creators did a good job of addressing through artful design.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/2-miles-of-walking-surfaces.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/2-miles-of-walking-surfaces-embed.png"
         alt="Two miles of walkable surfaces in the Inner Arbor plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Walkable paths and roads in the Inner Arbor plan.  Adapted from “Merriweather Park at Symphony Woods: By the Numbers,” © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Paumier plan with its straight paths does a poor job of this in my opinion; in particular the main path through the park makes it glaringly obvious how short the distance is from Little Patuxent Parkway to Merriweather Post Pavilion.  The Inner Arbor plan instead has lots of “meandering paths” (as called for by the Howard County Planning Board after the Design Advisory Panel <a href="http://inartrust.org/s/DAP-review-of-CA-plan-copy-2.pdf" title="Design Advisory Panel 07-13-2011, Symphony Woods Park - Phase 1">found fault with the Paumier plan</a>), together with access roadways forming about two miles of walking surfaces within the confines of the park, and featuring over two thousand places to sit along the way.  But I suspect people will probably prefer to walk than to sit, since as with the best theme parks walking will continually bring new sights to visitors’ attentions, between the natural beauty of the woods and the various attractive park features.</p>
<p>That concludes my thoughts on Symphony Woods, at least for now.  I hope to come back later with more thoughts on the Crescent development.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="a3ff874a-001"><a href="http://findingmelosingme.blogspot.com" title="karenLgray@verizon.net">Karen Lynn</a> - 2014-04-11 22:11</h4>
<p>Frank, thank you for your outstanding posts on the Crescent, Symphony Woods, and downtown development in general. They have been very helpful to me in understanding the various parts of the plan and how they fit together. Terrific work!</p>
<h4 id="a3ff874a-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-04-11 23:03</h4>
<p>Thanks much for reading and commenting. I&rsquo;m glad you find these posts useful.</p>
<h4 id="a3ff874a-003">Edwin Baker (catslidefarm@gmail.com) - 2014-04-17 22:07</h4>
<p>Frank, I&rsquo;m retired, but I don&rsquo;t have as much time as you for this stuff, thank you for what you do. More of my thoughts on your five, from a &ldquo;true&rdquo; Columbian (I was a Columbia planner for Rouse from 1965 through 1975). My concern, however is not &ldquo;what would Jim Rouse think,&rdquo; but what will work in Columbia. Symphony Woods is a relatively small park in an area which is urbanizing. It surrounds the Merriweather Post Pavilion, which visually and topographically is a part of the Park (more on that later). What do people want in relatively small urban parks? Trees, shade, bird habitat and a beautiful vista; Lawn, someplace to lie in the sun on a beautiful Summer day and get a few rays; Benches/chairs, some of us are better off sitting on furniture than the lawn; a Water feature, shallow pools and fountains are people magnets, and many are being designed for active use, not just visual; and finally, a Place to get an espresso, a glass of wine (I wish) and a snack sandwich or a sweet (is gelato too much to ask for). While I&rsquo;m not advocating for &ldquo;Cy&rsquo;s Plan,&rdquo; it seems to fill those requirements. It appears to me that the Inner Arbor Plan misses the boat on almost all counts. Its elements are active not passive, they are overly clever (I believe that I have used Disneyesque), more amusement park than urban park. In order for the Inner Arbor elements to succeed, people will need to drive there, they are not designed for the surrounding (or soon to be surrounding) population. And finally (for the Inner Arbor) they are outrageously expensive ($30 mil. or so?) design gimmicks that will be extremely expensive to maintain. But for me the clincher is that they are a distraction from the Frank Gehry designed Pavilion which in another few years will be eligible for landmark status. The Pavilion is an early Gehry building and represents his attraction to and appreciation of the minimalist art of its time. Unfortunately, the Pavilion has been badly maintained and it need a thorough restoration. The outbuildings on the site are abominable and should be removed and replaced with well designed facilities. If I were a wealthy donor, I would be happier donating money to restore a historic landmark than to the development of a &ldquo;picnic table&rdquo; or &ldquo;caterpillar.&rdquo; The interface between the Pavilon and the Park needs to be redesigned, your fear of guards at the chain link fence should not be the feeling a Park visitor is given. The land just outside the fence does relate to the Pavilion and the land inside the fence relates to the Woods. I believe that keeping Symphony Woods as an urban park which is enhanced by the Pavilion and is the appropriate setting for the Pavilion is the appropriate solution. For that to happen, the designers need to work together, not separately. And finally, the design of the Crescent and the Tobey&rsquo;s property along the South Entrance should be considered at the same time. I&rsquo;m afraid that that, however, would take the vision of a Jim Rouse.</p>
<h4 id="a3ff874a-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-04-18 02:11</h4>
<p>Thanks again for commenting! (Although if you keep leaving such long comments I&rsquo;ll have to set you up with your own blog :-) I&rsquo;ll likely address most of these points in a future post, but to comment quickly on a couple: First, as I understand the Inner Arbor plan, it has all the elements you mention, including a cafe, a fountain (proposed as part of a plaza on the Merriweather property as opposed to in Symphony Woods itself), and lots of standard-type benches along the pathways (per the &ldquo;by the numbers&rdquo; document) in addition to the Picnic Table feature. Second, I&rsquo;ll respectfully disagree about the Inner Arbor structures detracting from Gehry&rsquo;s pavilion. I think the much greater distraction is the motley collection of structures that you mention, the ones surrounding the pavilion on the Merriweather property itself. Based on my walk I suspect the topography is such that the Inner Arbor structures would not be that visible from the pavilion proper, or vice versa. In any case, I&rsquo;m on vacation this week, hence the many posts; expect two or three more before I&rsquo;m done.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I’m as culpable as anyone else when it comes to not letting facts get in the way of my emotions and convictions.  A few blog posts back <a href="/2014/03/09/two-visions-for-symphony-woods/" title="Two visions for Symphony Woods">I wrote</a> that some people seemed to oppose the Inner Arbor plan because “Jim Rouse (or one of his disciples) didn’t propose [it].”  Soon afterward Michael McCall wrote me and politely pointed out that he had worked for Jim Rouse for many years; in other words, one of Jim Rouse’s disciples was in fact behind the Inner Arbor plan.  I actually knew McCall had worked for Rouse, but I was so invested in the narrative of forward thinking vs. “What would Jim Rouse do?” nostalgia that my mind conveniently forgot this particular fact.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The Inner Arbor “by the numbers” document lists the total number of trees to be cut as 31, at least half of which are not considered to be in good condition; see the full document for a complete list of exactly which trees are proposed to be removed, their species, and conditions.  Contrasting this to the original plan, <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/opinion-talk/letter-editor/ph-ho-cf-letters-paumier-0802-2-20120731,0,1925820.story">Cy Paumier wrote in July 2012</a>, “Between 50 and 60 trees will need to be removed to construct the Symphony Woods Park walkways.” According to testimony at the <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.org/home/showdocument?id=5188" title="The Columbia Association, Petitioner, Before the Planning Board of Howard County, Md., Planning Board Case No.  394, Decision and Order ">Howard County Planning Board hearing</a> on the plan, also in July 2012, up to 64 trees could be removed, or a bit more than twice the number proposed to be removed for the Inner Arbor plan.  Note that unlike the Inner Arbor plan these figures do not appear to account for any trees to be removed for the shared-use pavilion, shared-use amphitheater, play area, and other park elements proposed in the CA documents submitted to Howard County.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Symphony Woods and sacred lands</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/09/symphony-woods-and-sacred-lands/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 09 Apr 2014 06:00:37 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/09/symphony-woods-and-sacred-lands/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;“Symphony Woods” is at risk of disappearing.  Not the literal Symphony Woods, the trees on the Columbia Association property surrounding Merriweather Post Pavilion&amp;mdash;as I’ve written before, the Inner Arbor plan proposed for that property would result in the removal of very few trees, fewer even than the previous Cy Paumier plan that’s been touted by some as more true to Jim Rouse’s vision.  Rather what’s at risk of disappearing is a certain idea about what “Symphony Woods” actually is, and I think understanding better what that means is key to understanding the ongoing resistance to the Inner Arbor plan and related developments concerning CA and downtown Columbia.  This post is a first attempt at such an understanding.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>“Symphony Woods” is at risk of disappearing.  Not the literal Symphony Woods, the trees on the Columbia Association property surrounding Merriweather Post Pavilion&mdash;as I’ve written before, the Inner Arbor plan proposed for that property would result in the removal of very few trees, fewer even than the previous Cy Paumier plan that’s been touted by some as more true to Jim Rouse’s vision.  Rather what’s at risk of disappearing is a certain idea about what “Symphony Woods” actually is, and I think understanding better what that means is key to understanding the ongoing resistance to the Inner Arbor plan and related developments concerning CA and downtown Columbia.  This post is a first attempt at such an understanding.</p>
<p>My personal thinking on this topic has evolved.  As readers of this blog are well aware, I’ve been a big supporter of the Inner Arbor plan, and I remain a supporter.  While I’ve tried not to demonize them, I have not been particularly sympathetic to those who opposed the plan, an opposition that in my opinion was misguided and not in the best interests of Columbia and Howard County.  I even felt a touch of schadenfreude when I read that some current CA board members were <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-symphony-woods-0327-20140325,0,5909356.story" title="CA vows to keep Symphony Woods name">upset about the Inner Arbor Trust referring to “Merriweather Park”</a> instead of “Symphony Woods”&mdash;“reduced to arguing about a name,” I remember thinking.</p>
<p>But, but… as I myself drove by the woods on my way through Columbia and looked more into the Crescent development plan, I came to realize how small Symphony Woods the property was in relation to what I had traditionally thought of as “Symphony Woods.”  I had been used to thinking of the entire area bounded by Broken Land Parkway, Little Patuxent Parkway, US 29, and the South Entrance Road as encompassing a relatively unchanging “Symphony Woods.”  It certainly looks that way from the road, and also when I ventured into the area for events like <a href="http://www.wineinthewoods.com/">Wine in the Woods</a> and <a href="http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/howard_county_general_hospital/ways_give/howard_hospital_foundation/foundation_events/symphony_of_lights/">Symphony of Lights</a>.  So I was surprised and a bit disturbed to find that much I had thought of as “Symphony Woods” wasn’t really Symphony Woods at all, but simply undeveloped commercial property that had been originally acquired by Jim Rouse and passed down by the Rouse Co.  to GGP and now to the Howard Hughes Corporation, ultimately to be the site of the intensive development represented by the <a href="/2014/04/06/the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases/" title="The Crescent development in downtown Columbia: Areas and phases">current Crescent proposal</a>.</p>
<p>My consternation didn’t end there.  In reviewing the Crescent plans I compared them to current maps of the area and went looking for Symphony Woods Road, what I thought of as the current and future boundary between the Crescent development and Symphony Woods itself.  But there is no Symphony Woods Road in the Crescent plan&mdash;or if there is it is reduced to a mere stub of what it once was.  In its place is a ring road named “West Crescent” after the development itself.  It’s another symbolic encroachment on the idea of “Symphony Woods,” even if it leaves Symphony Woods (the property) itself undisturbed.</p>
<p>At about the same time I read an <a href="http://aeon.co/magazine/living-together/why-national-honour-trumps-rationality/" title="Russia’s sacred land">article by Peter Turchin</a> (whose writings <a href="/2013/09/01/people-worth-reading-peter-turchin/">I’ve previously recommended</a>) explaining why (in his opinion) Vladimir Putin and indeed the vast majority of Russians were so intent on wresting control of Crimea from Ukraine.  In essence Turchin’s argument is that evolutionary dynamics since the invention of agriculture have favored those who defend their core territories&mdash;their “sacred lands”&mdash;with an intensity that is impossible to account for as a “rational” weighing of costs and benefits.  In Turchin’s view Crimea is such a place for Russians, sanctified by a history that includes the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War">Crimean war</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sevastopol_%281854%E2%80%9355%29">siege of Sevastopol</a>, the Crimean capital.</p>
<p>The example of Crimea may be off-putting given Putin’s reputation as an authoritarian and corrupt leader.  But (as Turchin writes in a <a href="http://socialevolutionforum.com/2014/04/07/states-without-sacred-lands/" title="States without Sacred Lands">follow-up post</a>) almost all countries have their own sacred lands and sacred ground&mdash;consider for example the vehement opposition to building an Islamic community center near the site of the destroyed World Trade Center towers.</p>
<p>I believe that Symphony Woods&mdash;or, if you will, “Symphony Woods”&mdash;is in a strong sense “sacred land” for some Columbians, especially including many Columbia “pioneers.”  It is in the heart of Columbia, and because of its location is not seen as being part of any one village (as, for example, Lake Elkhorn is part of Owen Brown) but rather as part of Columbia as a whole.  And because of its ownership by CA it both literally and symbolically belongs to all Columbians in a way that a commercial development like the Mall in Columbia (or, for that matter, the Crescent development) never could.  Note also that much of the opposition to the Inner Arbor plan is couched in terms of sanctity and disgust, honor, invasion by an alien presence, and so on&mdash;“deeply disturb me,” “bizarre sights,” “Disneyesque,” “disrespect,” “betrayal,” “a threatening … insect looming over the pathways”&mdash;a clear sign that more is at work here than a measured weighing of pros and cons.</p>
<p>So where do we go from here?  My first thought is for myself: Whether I agree with Inner Arbor opponents or not, the distress they express is for the most part sincerely felt and deserving of respect.  (I say “for the most part” because in every controversy there are always people on both sides who enjoy controversy for its own sake, or for the opportunities it brings them to advance their own agendas.)  It’s also good to remember that my own reasons for supporting the Inner Arbor plan are also in large part emotional and “irrational.”  (For example, I’d like to see Columbia and Howard County be a site for good contemporary architecture.  I’m sick and tired of the former Rouse building and Merriweather Post Pavilion being the only well-known examples of architectural distinction in the county&mdash; that was forty years ago, folks, and there are good architects other than Frank Gehry.)</p>
<p>My next thought is for the Inner Arbor Trust and the Howard Hughes Corporation: Don’t be so quick to discard the “Symphony Woods” name in pursuit of your own branding strategies.  Names aren’t simply names: The one who names a place exerts (symbolic) ownership over it, and the one who renames a place is symbolically seizing ownership of that place from those who formerly called it their own.  Yes, retaining the “Symphony Woods” name may be only a symbolic concession, but this is a situation in which symbolism is, if not everything, at least a great deal.</p>
<p>My final thought is for everyone: To wait and see what happens, especially in the case of the Inner Arbor, for which the need for additional funding means that the plan will be (can only be) realized in many steps over many years.  The first phase of the Inner Arbor plan will be the Chrysalis outdoor amphitheater.  As it happens, a “shared-use small outdoor amphitheater on CA land” was also <a href="http://www.bizmonthly.com/with-tweaks-made-symphony-woods-plan-set/" title="With Tweaks Made, Symphony Woods Plan Set">proposed as part of the former plan</a>, so in that sense the Chrysalis is in the spirit of an alternate approach touted by Inner Arbor opponents.</p>
<p>And maybe it will turn out that they and others will like it.  It’s not uncommon for new works of architecture to be derided before being embraced&mdash;consider for example the Vietnam Veterans Memorial on the Mall, now almost universally praised but <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam_Veterans_Memorial#Opposition_to_design" title="Vietnam Veterans Memorial, Opposition to design">condemned before its construction</a> as a “black gash of shame” and a “nihilistic slab of stone.”  I wouldn’t put the Chrysalis and the other Inner Arbor features up there with Maya Lin’s design, but I think they are solid examples of good architecture, respectful of the Symphony Woods setting, and potentially great additions to Columbia and Howard County.  They deserve a fair judgment on their merits, and I hope will receive it.  In the meantime no more schadenfreude from me.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Crescent development in downtown Columbia: Areas and phases</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/06/the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 06 Apr 2014 05:00:49 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/06/the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;UPDATE: The information in this post is now out of date based on the approved final development plan for the Crescent neighborhood phase 1.  For more current information please see my post “&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2015/03/22/the-crescent-development-by-the-numbers/&#34;&gt;The Crescent development by the numbers&lt;/a&gt;”.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/2014-04-06-the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases-figure-1-embed.png&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/2014-04-06-the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases-figure-1-embed.png&#34;
         alt=&#34;Downtown Columbia neighborhoods&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;Downtown Columbia including the Crescent and Areas 1 though 4 within it.  Click for high-resolution version.  Image adapted from Downtown Columbia Plan: A General Plan Amendment (Howard County, Maryland, Adopted February 1, 2010), Exhibit E, “The Neighborhoods”.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>UPDATE: The information in this post is now out of date based on the approved final development plan for the Crescent neighborhood phase 1.  For more current information please see my post “<a href="/2015/03/22/the-crescent-development-by-the-numbers/">The Crescent development by the numbers</a>”.</em></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/2014-04-06-the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases-figure-1-embed.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/2014-04-06-the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases-figure-1-embed.png"
         alt="Downtown Columbia neighborhoods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Downtown Columbia including the Crescent and Areas 1 though 4 within it.  Click for high-resolution version.  Image adapted from Downtown Columbia Plan: A General Plan Amendment (Howard County, Maryland, Adopted February 1, 2010), Exhibit E, “The Neighborhoods”.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Enough <a href="/2014/04/01/no-fooling-columbias-becoming-a-city/" title="No fooling, Columbia’s becoming a city">random impressions of the proposed Crescent development</a>&mdash;what’s actually proposed to be built?  In the pre-submission meeting representatives of the Howard Hughes Corporation outlined their proposal to develop in four separate areas of the overall Crescent property, with construction to occur in three separate phases.</p>
<p>The overall Crescent nighborhood surrounds Symphony Woods on the west, south, and east like a giant letter “C” open to the north, hence the “crescent” name.  On the west and south the Crescent is bounded by Broken Land Parkway and the exit ramp from US 29, on the east by US 29 itself.  Within the Crescent development will be restricted to four areas, designated Area 1 through Area 4.  (See the accompanying image; at the pre-submission meeting John DeWolf of Howard Hughes joked about the unimaginative naming.)  The remainder of the Crescent will be retained as natural space, with no development planned except for the construction of a few paths through the woods.  (Some of this natural space is currently not wooded, but will be replanted with trees as part of the overall development.)</p>
<p>Of the four areas, Area 3 is the most important in terms of defining the new Columbia downtown.  As envisioned by the Howard Hughes Corporation it includes six residential buildings, a hotel and convention center, a concert hall (possibly named “Merriweather Hall” or similarly), an aquatic center suitable for competitive swim meets, a new Central Branch of the Howard County Library System, and lots of retail and dining space, for example occupying the first floors of the hotel and residential structures.  At least some of the residential structures could be up to 20 stories tall; the remaining structures in Area 3 (including the hotel) could be up to 15 stories tall.  Parking in Area 3 would be in the form of parking garages in the residential buildings and a parking garage behind the hotel, conference center, and library.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/2014-04-06-the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases-figure-2.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/2014-04-06-the-crescent-development-in-downtown-columbia-areas-and-phases-figure-2-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rendering of proposed Crescent development"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of proposed Crescent development in downtown Columbia.  Click for high resolution version.  Image © 2014 The Howard Hughes Corporation; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Areas 1, 2, and 4 are more conventional.  Area 1 and Area 4 are proposed to contain general office buildings; in the pre-submission meeting DeWolf expressed a desire to have a single major corporate tenant occupy all the space in Area 1 (for example, a company like McCormick &amp; Co.  Inc., currently <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/bs-bz-mccormick-corporate-headquarters-20140326,0,4065636.story" title="McCormick explores relocating headquarters from Sparks">considering relocating its headquarters</a> from northern Baltimore County, or a large Federal contractor).  Area 2 is currently proposed for use as medical offices.  All three areas are proposed to have small amounts of retail space as well, in total well less than 5% of the space in those areas.</p>
<p>The development of the Crescent is scheduled to occur in three phases.  Based on John DeWolf’s comments in the pre-submission meeting, apparently Howard Hughes changed the originally-proposed schedule to front-load more construction in Area 3.  If so I think this was a wise move: It more quickly brings the benefits of the various public and civic uses (which are of interest to people throughout Columbia, Howard County, and beyond) as well as bringing some initial residents to downtown Columbia to liven the scene and provide a local customer base for shops and restaurants constructed in phase 1.  Without any Area 3 development in phase 1 the Crescent would simply look like another corporate office park.</p>
<p>The overall Crescent schedule then looks as follows:</p>
<p>Phase 1 would see initial office space in Areas 1 and 2, initial residential, retail, and dining space in Area 3, and the hotel, conference center, library, and aquatic center also in Area 3.  Parking would be provided primarily by surface lots in Areas 1 and 2, and by parking garages in Area 3.</p>
<p>Phase 2 would add more office space in Areas 1 and 2, along with a small amount of retail, and more residential and retail space in Area 3.  The surface lots in Areas 1 and 2 would be cut back in size to make way for office space and parking garages, and more parking garages would be constructed in Area 3 as part of the residential development.</p>
<p>Phase 3 would add yet more office space in Areas 1 and 2, along with a bit more retail, and more residential and retail space in Area 3.  The surface lots in Areas 1 and 2 would be completely replaced by office space and parking garages, with more garages being constructed in Area 3 as well, again as part of the residential development.</p>
<p>Overall construction of office space would be spread roughly equally over all three phases, as would construction of residential units in Area 3.  Most if not all of the restaurant and dining space would apparently be constructed in phase 1, with more retail space coming along in phase 2 and especially phase 3.</p>
<p>For more on the details of exactly what will be built and when see my next series of posts, beginning with a look at phase 1 development.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="7b19e983-002">Edwin Baker (catslidefarm@gmail.com) - 2014-04-07 16:25</h4>
<p>The Crescent and the Woods Frank, The model photograph of the Crescent development (above) makes the best possible case for preserving Symphony Woods and putting the Inner Arbor amusement park in some other location. Symphony Woods gives the Crescent its shape and character. With all of the activity scheduled for the Crescent, adding another activity center by tearing down the remaining woods is a terrible idea. I understand your enthusiasm for the creative (if untried) structures proposed in the Inner Arbor plan, although the &ldquo;picnic table&rdquo; and &ldquo;caterpiller&rdquo; seem silly, but the cost of building and maintaining them (construction estimated at $30 to $40 million), the destruction of the last large wooded open space in Downtown Columbia and the competition they will be to activities in the Crescent and the Mall makes their development unreasonable. Ted</p>
<h4 id="7b19e983-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-04-08 01:16</h4>
<p>Thanks again for stopping by! In response: Based on everything I&rsquo;ve seen and read (and that&rsquo;s a lot) the Inner Arbor plan is not going to result in &ldquo;tearing down the remaining woods&rdquo; or anything close to that; if anything it will likely result in fewer trees being removed than the previous (Cy Paumier) plan. However I think there is a valid distinction between the literal Symphony Woods (i.e., the CA property proper) and what people think of when they think of &ldquo;Symphony Woods&rdquo;. I may do a blog post on that topic.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>No fooling, Columbia’s becoming a city</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/01/no-fooling-columbias-becoming-a-city/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 01 Apr 2014 19:55:41 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/04/01/no-fooling-columbias-becoming-a-city/</guid>
      <description>&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/crescent_mp_rendering_final_rev.jpg&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/crescent_mp_rendering_final_rev-embed.jpg&#34;
         alt=&#34;Rendering of proposed Crescent development in downtown Columbia&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;Rendering of proposed Crescent development in downtown Columbia.  View is of Area 3 looking east, with the proposed swim center to the right.  Click for high-resolution version.  Image © 2014 Howard Hughes Corporation; used with permission.&lt;/p&gt;
        &lt;/figcaption&gt;
&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Columbia is well on its way to becoming a real city with a real downtown.  (This is not an April Fools’ joke.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Last night I attended the pre-submission meeting at which Howard Hughes Corporation presented its plans for the Crescent area next to Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion.  (I arrived a few minutes late, missing the introduction of the presenters and the opening remarks.)  For now I’ll leave a more complete description of the meeting to the professionals (see &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-crescent-meeting-20140331,0,925474.story&#34; title=&#34;Concern expressed about traffic, building height in Columbia’s crescent &#34;&gt;Luke Lavoie’s story&lt;/a&gt; today in the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt;) and will just give some initial somewhat disconnected impressions.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<figure><a href="/assets/images/crescent_mp_rendering_final_rev.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/crescent_mp_rendering_final_rev-embed.jpg"
         alt="Rendering of proposed Crescent development in downtown Columbia"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Rendering of proposed Crescent development in downtown Columbia.  View is of Area 3 looking east, with the proposed swim center to the right.  Click for high-resolution version.  Image © 2014 Howard Hughes Corporation; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Columbia is well on its way to becoming a real city with a real downtown.  (This is not an April Fools’ joke.)</p>
<p>Last night I attended the pre-submission meeting at which Howard Hughes Corporation presented its plans for the Crescent area next to Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion.  (I arrived a few minutes late, missing the introduction of the presenters and the opening remarks.)  For now I’ll leave a more complete description of the meeting to the professionals (see <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-crescent-meeting-20140331,0,925474.story" title="Concern expressed about traffic, building height in Columbia’s crescent ">Luke Lavoie’s story</a> today in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>) and will just give some initial somewhat disconnected impressions.</p>
<p>The attendance seemed a bit less than that for the pre-submission meeting for the Inner Arbor plan.  (Luke Lavoie concurs, citing 75 people attending the Crescent meeting and about 100 at the <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-reaction-1205-20131203,0,3729212.story" title="Residents praise, question Inner Arbor plans for Columbia">Inner Arbor meeting</a>.)  I find that a bit strange in at least one sense.  In the case of the Inner Arbor plan people got exercised over what I consider relatively minor things, like identifying the exact number of trees to be removed from Symphony Woods, and presumably showed up at the meeting in force to make sure those concerns got on the record.  To me this is a case of not seeing the forest for the you-know-whats, given that the Crescent development will change Columbia in ways far more radical than anything that might happen in Symphony Woods.  In the immortal words of Vice President Biden, this is a big [expletive] deal.</p>
<p>Without really trying to I ended up sitting next to Jane Dembner of CA; the same thing happened to me at the Design Advisory Panel review of the Inner Arbor plan, and (if I remember right) at the Inner Arbor pre-submission meeting as well.  I keep running into the same people at these events; I get the feeling that there’s a core group of perhaps a few hundred people at most who have influence over, strong opinions about, or (in my case) an abiding interest in what happens in Columbia and Howard County&mdash;call them the Howard County 0.1%.</p>
<p>The presentation itself was divided into two parts: One section on the site plan, roads and pathways, public amenities, design guidelines, sustainability, and related matters, presented by two Howard Hughes employees whose full names I didn’t catch, and a second section providing more detail on the actual buildings, presented by Howard Hughes SVP John DeWolf.  This second part was apparently an adaptation of a pitch DeWolf does for investors and potential tenants, so it included a lot of high-level marketing stuff about the appeal of Columbia and Howard County, the desirability of a vibrant downtown Columbia, and the ability of Howard Hughes to execute on that vision.  Due to time constraints DeWolf had to march through this second presentation in about 30 minutes, including interspersed questions and answers; this was unfortunate since this section contained some of the most interesting material from my point of view.</p>
<p>DeWolf was clearly enthusiastic about the project (as he himself said, the man likes to build stuff).  He went out of his way to emphasize the importance of Merriweather Post Pavilion to the Crescent project, particularly as a way to “make Columbia cool” and attract a younger demographic.  Whether the hip twenty-something with a lip ring depicted on one of his slides will actually want to live in Columbia (as opposed to just attending a Merriweather event) is an open question, but full marks to DeWolf for trying.  DeWolf didn’t mention anything specific about Merriweather renovation or plans for Merriweather parking, but did make a brief aside about his tiff with Ken Ulman.  He didn’t mention anything about the Inner Arbor plan.  In general DeWolf is an entertaining presenter, though having done lots of sales presentations myself I think I can tell what’s unforced enthusiasm and what’s a bit feigned for the benefit of prospects.  (For example, does DeWolf really think the lengthy multi-step Howard County approval process is a great thing for developers, as he seemed to imply?)</p>
<p>As Luke Lavoie’s story indicates, the possibility of 20-story-high buildings in downtown Columbia was a major theme and concern at the meeting.  It reminded me of the controversy several years ago over the proposed <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/18/AR2006011802493.html" title="Columbia High-Rise Approved">22-story WCI Plaza tower</a> near the Columbia lakefront.  For various reasons that plan eventually died an <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-downtown-acre-0329-20120323,0,7209711.story" title="Columbia developer buys controversial lakefront property">ignominious death</a>, but by all indications thus far the Crescent proposal should escape that fate, 20-story buildings and all.  For what it’s worth, I think 20-story buildings in the context of the Crescent development are appropriate to the setting.  They don’t stick out as stand-alone structures, but appear to exist in the context of nearby buildings of somewhat smaller size.  I don’t mind the contrast with the adjacent Symphony Woods either; it actually reminds me of the buildings next to New York’s Central Park, a juxtaposition I find striking and attractive.  There’s an open question as to whether and how much those buildings will shadow Symphony Woods at various times of the day and year; I hope to see something about that in future presentations from Howard Hughes.</p>
<p>Speaking of “massing” (to use the technical term for defining the overall shapes and sizes of buildings), I think the Crescent plan actually works pretty well in relation to its site.  One person commenting at the meeting was concerned about the implications of the Crescent area being relatively isolated, in the sense that it was hemmed in by Symphony Woods and Merriweather to the north and by existing roads and development to the east, south, and west&mdash;not to mention the areas within the Crescent development itself that are unsuitable for building and will remain in a relatively natural state.  Far from being a bad thing, I think this might actually work to the benefit of the development.  Among other things, the compact and constrained site forces a higher density of development and helps prevents the sort of “micro-sprawl” I’ve noticed in places like Tysons Corner and Reston Town Center, where large urban-scale buildings and their associated “structured parking” sit next to low-density suburban-style strip shopping centers with large open-air parking lots.</p>
<p>The compact site and relatively high density will of course lead to increased traffic, which was another major concern expressed, along with concerns about the implications of that increased traffic for pedestrian access to and within the Crescent area.  I suspect that true mass transit (e.g., heavy or light rail) will be a long time coming to downtown Columbia, if it ever does, so I don’t expect any relief on that front.  Nevertheless I’m reasonably optimistic about the traffic situation, based in large part on the advances occurring in automobile automation that will likely be widely adopted within the longer-scale time frame of this development.  Even if we never get to fully-autonomous “self-driving” cars, I think increased intelligence in automobiles will go a long way to making cars more safely co-exist with pedestrians, as well as potentially speeding up traffic by allowing cars to intelligently cooperate with each other to improve traffic flow and reduce congestion caused by stops and starts due to humans’ poor reaction times.</p>
<p>Other thoughts: I was surprised by the interest shown in a proposed swim center (or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natatorium">natatorium</a>, if you want to get fancy).  I wasn’t paying much attention to the discussions over the future of CA’s swimming pools, so missed the fact that there is a fair size group of people actively lobbying for a high-end professional-quality swim center that could host local and regional swimming competitions&mdash;something Howard County currently lacks.  It sounds like a worthy facility, and one which could attract lots of visitors to the proposed hotel and restaurants in the downtown area.  There was also mention of locating a new library downtown, but not much discussion of that.  For the record, I think the Crescent area would be a better location for a new Central Branch than near the location of the present facility.  I for one am looking forward to the possibility of a large multi-purpose central library of some architectural distinction.</p>
<p>Finally, as implied above I didn’t really get a good feeling for how parking at Merriweather will be addressed as the various phases of construction proceed.  However I did glimpse some slides that may shed some light on that question, and if I can find out more I’ll post again.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="f2b80aaf-001"><a href="http://new3creationservices.wordpress.com" title="banguramy@gmail.com">Musu Bangura</a> - 2014-04-14 19:03</h4>
<p>Wow, this is crazy. I haven&rsquo;t been in Columbia for a couple of years now and it&rsquo;s amazing how much has changed already. Great info!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Parking at venues comparable to Merriweather Post Pavilion</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/03/29/parking-at-venues-comparable-to-merriweather-post-pavilion/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 29 Mar 2014 07:48:27 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/03/29/parking-at-venues-comparable-to-merriweather-post-pavilion/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I previously discussed &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/03/24/parking-and-the-future-of-merriweather-post-pavilion/&#34; title=&#34;Parking and the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion&#34;&gt;parking at Merriweather Post Pavilion&lt;/a&gt;.  How does Merriweather fare compared to other venues?  Do they offer any glimpses of Merriweather’s future with respect to parking?  For this post I picked three different venues, each with a Merriweather connection and all of them together showing a wide range of venue parking situations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/jiffy-lube-live-500-ft-scale-with-circles.png&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/jiffy-lube-live-500-ft-scale-with-circles-embed.png&#34;
         alt=&#34;Aerial view of Jiffy Lube Live and surroundings&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;Jiffy Lube Live and surroundings, Bristow VA.  The circles show areas within a quarter mile and half mile of the venue.  Click for high-resolution version.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I previously discussed <a href="/2014/03/24/parking-and-the-future-of-merriweather-post-pavilion/" title="Parking and the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion">parking at Merriweather Post Pavilion</a>.  How does Merriweather fare compared to other venues?  Do they offer any glimpses of Merriweather’s future with respect to parking?  For this post I picked three different venues, each with a Merriweather connection and all of them together showing a wide range of venue parking situations.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/jiffy-lube-live-500-ft-scale-with-circles.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/jiffy-lube-live-500-ft-scale-with-circles-embed.png"
         alt="Aerial view of Jiffy Lube Live and surroundings"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jiffy Lube Live and surroundings, Bristow VA.  The circles show areas within a quarter mile and half mile of the venue.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>First is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiffy_Lube_Live">Jiffy Lube Live</a> (formerly Nissan Pavilion) in Prince William County, Virginia.  Jiffy Lube Live is notable as Merriweather Post Pavilion’s most serious local competitor for outdoor summer concerts.  With a total capacity of 25,000 (10,000 in the pavilion proper, and 15,000 on the lawn) it is significantly larger than Merriweather, and thus tends to attract the very largest shows.  As can be seen from the <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@38.7866933,-77.5900792,1521m/data=!3m1!1e3">aerial view of Jiffy Lube Live</a>, the venue is located in a primarily rural area, with plenty of space for open-air parking.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Despite that, Jiffy Lube Live has persistent and at times horrendous problems with parking and traffic, as evidenced by the large number of complaints on Yelp and elsewhere.  To quote from the very first reviewer: “The parking lot … is a total and utter nightmare!  Every freaking show it takes HOURS to get out.” He went on to note: “Merriweather parking is so much easier!” Part of the problem is that although Jiffy Lube Live is close to I-66 it can be reached only via a two-lane road, and there is apparently only one main entrance and exit to the parking lots.  However traffic management seems to play a role as well; one Yelp reviewer vented at length to the venue operators:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I have to say that without a doubt, the exit out of the parking lot was the worst I’ve ever seen at a concert.  I’ve been to Merriweather Post and Wolf Trap several times&mdash;and your venue wins the prize for the most amateurish traffic and parking lot management in the [DC/Maryland/Virginia area].  It took us 1.5 hours to get out&mdash;that was longer than [the] actual set.  …</p>
<p>Your “senior” staff abdicated responsibility to a bunch of pimply faced teenagers with no training, who had no idea what they were doing.  Worse yet, what few of them there were&mdash;all stayed bunched together at the very end of each parking zone.  They did NOTHING to help manage traffic flow out of the parking lots.  They just stood around, checking their phones and talking to each other.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ouch.  I may be cherry-picking bad reviews to some extent, but overall people apparently have pretty negative feelings about parking, traffic, and other aspects of the Jiffy Lube Live experience; the average Yelp rating for the venue is only two-and-a-half stars (out of five), compared to three-and-a-half stars for Merriweather.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/jay-pritzker-pavilion-500-ft-scale-with-circles.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/jay-pritzker-pavilion-500-ft-scale-with-circles-embed.png"
         alt="Jay Pritzker Pavilion and surroundings"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jay Pritzker Pavilion in Millennium Park and surroundings, Chicago IL.  Circles show areas within a quarter mile and half mile of the pavilion.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Let’s now turn from a rural setting to a very urban setting, and look at the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Pritzker_Pavilion">Jay Pritzker Pavilion</a> in Millennium Park in Chicago.  The Pritzker Pavilion has two Merriweather connections: First, like Merriweather it was designed by Frank Gehry, although unlike Columbia Chicago got the benefit of the mature Gehry style.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup>  Second, the Pritzker Pavilion and the surrounding Millennium Park occupy roughly the same land area as Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods, and the Inner Arbor Trust has used Millennium Park as an example of the sort of structures and activities that could be fitted in the combined “Merriweather Park” footprint.</p>
<p>As can be seen from the <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@41.8832734,-87.6204878,1457m/data=!3m1!1e3">aerial view of the Jay Pritzker Pavilion</a>, there is essentially no open-air parking available anywhere near the pavilion and the surrounding park.  However there is a <a href="http://www.millenniumgarages.com/about/">complex of underground parking garages</a> providing over 9,000 spaces in total, most of them within a quarter mile of the pavilion, and there are also nearby rail and bus transit stops.  The Pritzker Pavilion is wildly popular (rated at <a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/jay-pritzker-pavilion-chicago">four and a half stars on Yelp</a>), and in reading nearly a hundred reviews I found only one complaint about parking&mdash;and that seemed to be as much about the cost as about the availability.  (Note also that I found many reviewers commenting on how clean the bathrooms were.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/cynthia-woods-mitchell-pavilion-500-ft-scale-with-circles.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/cynthia-woods-mitchell-pavilion-500-ft-scale-with-circles-embed.png"
         alt="Cythnia Woods Mitchell Pavilion and surroundings"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion and surroundings, The Woodlands, Houston TX.  Circles show areas within a quarter mile and half mile of the venue.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Unfortunately (or not, depending on your perspective) Columbia is not a major city like Chicago and thus doesn’t have the transit infrastructure to supplement on-site or nearby venue parking.  Probably a better comparison is thus to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cynthia_Woods_Mitchell_Pavilion">Cythnia Woods Mitchell Pavilion</a> (also known as the Woodlands Pavilion) in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Woodlands,_Texas">The Woodlands</a> outside of Houston.  Like Columbia, The Woodlands is a planned community and is of roughly similar size (just over a hundred thousand residents).  (The pavilion itself is <a href="http://www.woodlandscenter.org/history.html" title="History of the Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion">named after the wife of George Mitchell</a>, who as the original developer of The Woodlands played a role similar to that of Jim Rouse in Columbia.)  As you can see from the <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@30.1617438,-95.4639081,1599m/data=!3m1!1e3">aerial view of Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion</a>, like Merriweather the pavilion is located in an exurban location that is heavily car-dependent, with the pavilion itself surrounded by office, residential, and retail developments, including a nearby regional mall.  Both pavilions have roughly similar maximum capacities as well, at around 19,000 people (including both pavilion and lawn).<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>In fact, the parallels between Merriweather Post Pavilion and the Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion are so close that in 2005 the Citizens Advisory Panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion specifically referenced the Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion as one of the case studies in their <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.123.774&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf">final report</a> [PDF].  Of particular interest in this context are comments by Jerry MacDonald, president and CEO of The Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion Center for the Performing Arts, regarding parking:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>MacDonald believes that parking is generally not a problem for the pavilion during most concerts, but there are a few major concerts a year, attracting up to 12,000 people, where parking needs are at a premium.  MacDonald has agreements with surrounding office buildings to use 5,000 parking spaces and the pavilion has a 932-space garage adjacent to its facility.  MacDonald said parking generally fills up in the mall corner nearest the pavilion, but there are many unused spaces on the north side of the facility.  He suggested shuttles could be used to distribute parking more evenly.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This sounds like a good guide to the future of parking at Merriweather: leverage parking at nearby office buildings, make use of mall parking when needed, and employ shuttles to more remote parking lots (e.g., on the north side of the Mall in Columbia or at Howard Community College in the case of Merriweather) for the very largest events.  The one element not currently present at Merriweather is an on-site parking garage; however the Columbia Association’s <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation">original Inner Arbor conceptual plan</a> included exactly such a garage with a capacity of 1,750 cars, almost twice that of the on-site garage at the Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion.</p>
<p>The Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion has been a very successful venue.  In addition to hosting popular music concerts it’s the summer home of the Houston Symphony (similar to how Merriweather was to be the summer home of the NSO), and with <a href="http://www.chron.com/life/hoffman/article/Hoffman-Woodlands-Pavilion-is-No-2-in-the-world-1694146.php" title="Hoffman: Woodlands Pavilion is No.  2 in the world">total annual attendance of over 300,000 in 2010</a> was second only to the Filene Center at Wolk Trap among outdoor amphitheaters that year.  (I couldn’t find recent figures for attendance at Merriweather, but according to the Citizens Advisory Panel report total attendance was about 180,000 in 2004.)  Its Yelp ratings (reviewed both as the <a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/cynthia-woods-mitchell-pavillion-the-woodlands-2">Cynthia Woods Mitchell Pavilion</a> and the <a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/woodlands-pavilion-woodlands">Woodlands Pavilion</a>) are three and a half stars and three stars respectively, similar to that of Merriweather, and like Merriweather most people thought traffic and parking were not problems.</p>
<p>Will Merriweather Post Pavilion continue its own tradition of ease of access and convenient parking once construction in the Crescent area begins in earnest?  If I can I’ll be attending the <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-howard-hughes-0320-20140318,0,2645175.story" title="Urban streetscape planned for downtown Columbia’s crescent">Crescent development</a> presubmission community meeting on March 31, and that’s one of the things I hope to be able to ask about.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Note that the aerial views of Jiffy Lube Live and the other venues discussed in this post are to the same scale, and cover the same area, as the aerial view of Merriweather Post Pavilion in the previous post.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The numbers of Yelp reviews for Jiffy Lube Live and Merriweather Post Pavilion are currently 120 and 134 respectively.  Google reviews are even more lop-sided: An average of 2.3 out of 5 for Jiffy Lube Live (70 reviewers) and 4.3 out of 5 for Merriweather (43 reviewers).&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>In case you’re wondering what a Frank Gehry-designed structure currently costs, the total price tag for the Jay Pritzker Pavilion was $60 million dollars, of which about $15 million came from a single private donation (from the Pritzker family).  By comparison the current Inner Arbor cost estimate is in the neighborhood of $30 million for all proposed features, with the Chrysalis outdoor amphitheater budgeted at $3.5 million dollars.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>The two pavilions even have their own respective sort-of-hometown indie bands: Animal Collective, originally from Baltimore, famously named <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merriweather_Post_Pavilion_%28album%29">an album</a> after Merriweather Post Pavilion, while Arcade Fire singer and songwriter Win Butler and his brother and bandmate William <a href="http://houston.culturemap.com/news/entertainment/05-05-11-the-big-win-arcade-fire-tells-tales-and-talks-texas-in-its-return-home-to-the-woodlands/">grew up in The Woodlands</a>, an experience that inspired the album <em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Suburbs_%28album%29">The Suburbs</a></em>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Parking and the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/03/24/parking-and-the-future-of-merriweather-post-pavilion/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 24 Mar 2014 19:45:48 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/03/24/parking-and-the-future-of-merriweather-post-pavilion/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;The future of Symphony Woods and the Inner Arbor plan is tied up with the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion.  So what of Merriweather’s future?  The past weeks have seen a brewing battle over Merriweather between the Howard County government (more specifically, County Executive Ken Ulman) and the Howard Hughes Corporation.  For the complete rundown see &lt;a href=&#34;https://twitter.com/LukeHoCoTimes&#34;&gt;Luke Lavoie&lt;/a&gt;’s ongoing coverage in the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt;, as Ulman first &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-downtown-arts-0130-20140212,0,1293087.story&#34; title=&#34;Ulman pressures developer on Merriweather renovations&#34;&gt;verbally admonished Howard Hughes&lt;/a&gt; over the pace of renovations to Merriweather, then &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-downtown-ulman-0320-20140313,0,1995568.story&#34; title=&#34;Ulman bill would expedite ownership change of Merriweather&#34;&gt;proposed legislation&lt;/a&gt; expediting transfer of Merriweather to the nonprofit Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission (a move that was envisioned in the original &lt;a href=&#34;http://planhoward.org/downtown_columbia_plan.pdf&#34;&gt;Downtown Columbia plan&lt;/a&gt; [PDF]).  In response, according to an article by &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/bio/15981/Kevin+Litten&#34;&gt;Kevin Litten&lt;/a&gt; in the Baltimore Business Journal, John DeWolf of Howard Hughes &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/blog/real-estate/2014/03/blindsided-howard-hughes-threatens-to-stop.html?page=all&#34; title=&#34;‘Blindsided’ Howard Hughes threatens to stop Downtown Columbia project if Howard County rushes Merriweather Post Pavilion ownership transfer&#34;&gt;claimed Ulman had “blindsided” them&lt;/a&gt;, and floated the idea of Howard Hughes pulling out of Columbia entirely.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The future of Symphony Woods and the Inner Arbor plan is tied up with the future of Merriweather Post Pavilion.  So what of Merriweather’s future?  The past weeks have seen a brewing battle over Merriweather between the Howard County government (more specifically, County Executive Ken Ulman) and the Howard Hughes Corporation.  For the complete rundown see <a href="https://twitter.com/LukeHoCoTimes">Luke Lavoie</a>’s ongoing coverage in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, as Ulman first <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-downtown-arts-0130-20140212,0,1293087.story" title="Ulman pressures developer on Merriweather renovations">verbally admonished Howard Hughes</a> over the pace of renovations to Merriweather, then <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-downtown-ulman-0320-20140313,0,1995568.story" title="Ulman bill would expedite ownership change of Merriweather">proposed legislation</a> expediting transfer of Merriweather to the nonprofit Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission (a move that was envisioned in the original <a href="http://planhoward.org/downtown_columbia_plan.pdf">Downtown Columbia plan</a> [PDF]).  In response, according to an article by <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/bio/15981/Kevin+Litten">Kevin Litten</a> in the Baltimore Business Journal, John DeWolf of Howard Hughes <a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/blog/real-estate/2014/03/blindsided-howard-hughes-threatens-to-stop.html?page=all" title="‘Blindsided’ Howard Hughes threatens to stop Downtown Columbia project if Howard County rushes Merriweather Post Pavilion ownership transfer">claimed Ulman had “blindsided” them</a>, and floated the idea of Howard Hughes pulling out of Columbia entirely.</p>
<p>I have no inside knowledge of this whole affair, but I presume that private discussions between the county and Howard Hughes didn’t bear fruit, so that negotiations are now being conducted via <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/DisplayPrimary.aspx?id=6442473971" title="Howard County Unveils Plan to Ensure Public Benefits as Downtown Columbia Redevelopment Unfolds">press release</a> and <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-county-suing-howard-hughes-for-106161-20140319,0,257760.story" title="Howard Co. suing downtown Columbia developer for $106,161">lawsuit</a>.  I also have no firm opinion as to which side has the better case, so I’ll refrain from commenting on the merits of their respective positions, leaving that to <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2014/03/the-tif-between-howard-county-howard-hughes.html" title="The TIF Between Howard County and Howard Hughes">Bill Woodcock</a> and others.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-500-ft-scale-with-circles.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-post-pavilion-500-ft-scale-with-circles-embed.png"
         alt="Merriweather Post Pavilion and surroundings.  The two circles show areas within a quarter mile and half mile of the pavilion.  Click for high-resolution version."/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Merriweather Post Pavilion and surroundings.  The two circles show areas within a quarter-mile and half-mile of the pavilion.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>My concern in this post is much more mundane, namely the future of parking at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  If you check out people’s <a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/merriweather-post-pavilion-columbia">opinions about Merriweather Post Pavilion on Yelp</a> there are three things that stand out.  First, they like the wooded setting.  Not surprising, that’s why all the future plans proposed for the Merriweather area have envisioned preserving the natural character of Symphony Woods.  Second, a lot of people don’t like the bathrooms.  Again, not surprising; I guess that’s one reason why both the county and Howard Hughes agree on the need for renovating Merriweather (even as they disagree on the estimated cost).</p>
<p>Finally, people like the ease of access to Merriweather Post Pavilion and the ease of parking.  As one person noted, “[Merriweather] is easy to get to off Rt. 29, and the parking is simple, free and relatively good in terms of easy in, easy out.” Another person expanded on this:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There is also parking right on site in a big lot out back, and though we waited to leave until after the performance was fully over, we still got out of there in a completely reasonable amount of time.  To be honest, we were impressed with how efficiently the parking lot exodus was that night.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>You can see that “big lot out back” in the above <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@39.2104232,-76.862029,1516m/data=!3m1!1e3">aerial view of Merriweather Post Pavilion</a> and the surrounding area; it’s the open area immediately to the south of Symphony Woods Road, to the south of the pavilion and the southern portion of Symphony Woods.  Note that it’s less than a quarter-mile from that lot to the stage of the pavilion, say a five-minute walk or so.</p>
<p>But let’s suppose that Merriweather gets renovated and secures a renewed lease on life.  Let’s also suppose that <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-howard-hughes-0320-20140318,0,2645175.story" title="Urban streetscape planned for downtown Columbia’s crescent">development of the Crescent area</a> surrounding Merriweather on the west and south proceeds along the lines proposed by the Howard Hughes Corporation.  The “big lot out back” currently used for Merriweather parking is not part of Symphony Woods itself, nor is it part of the Merriweather property that is proposed to be turned over to the Downtown Columbia Arts and Culture Commission.  Rather it’s part of the so-called Crescent Area 3 proposed to be developed by Howard Hughes, and per the downtown Columbia plan could eventually be the site of <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/2014-02-19-downtownaerialrendering1-dci-jpeg-20140318,0,5512109.photo" title="An aerial view of Howard Hughes Corp.’s revamped plans for the crescent property">buildings up to 15 to 20 stories tall</a>.  At the point when construction starts in earnest in Area 3 (which could be as early as 2015 or 2016) Merriweather is going to experience a severe parking crunch assuming nothing else is done.</p>
<p>What to do about parking at Merriweather?  This is by no means a new concern.  Almost ten years ago (during the Jim Robey administration) the Citizens Advisory Panel on Merriweather Post Pavilion (established to look at a <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2004-06-24/news/0406240389_1_merriweather-howard-county-rouse" title="County weighs buying Merriweather">possible county purchase of Merriweather</a>) had this to say in the executive summary of their <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.123.774&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf">final report</a> [PDF]:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<blockquote>
<p>A major concern of the Panel is the expected loss of approximately 4,600 on-site parking spaces when [General Growth Properties, the predecessor to Howard Hughes] develops the adjacent “Crescent” property on which most of that parking is located.  The panel recommends that the County replace those spaces by formalizing the use of existing spaces at the GGP office buildings along the north side of Little Patuxent Parkway and the southern portion of the Mall parking near Merriweather; by constructing a parking garage on nearby property owned by the Columbia Association; or by constructing a parking garage jointly with GGP at the Columbia Mall.  Another possible solution could be presented if the Crescent parcel is developed as a mixed-use project such that up to 2,000 vehicles could be accommodated for evening events as part of the eventual build-out of the property.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The panel went on to say:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Failure to formalize the available parking agreement with GGP would jeopardize the County’s ability to lease out Merriweather to an operator and would severely limit the long-term viability.  Without solving the parking capacity issue, the County should not proceed with the purchase of Merriweather.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How much parking is needed?  The panel report estimated that at least 3,700 parking spaces would be needed for a typical 10,000 person show at Merriweather (assuming 2.7 people per space), while the largest Merriweather events at 19,000 people would require at least 7,000 spaces.</p>
<p>Where will this parking come from?  It’s worth noting that the panel report was somewhat pessimistic about gaining access to parking spaces at The Mall in Columbia (and in any case, note that most of those spaces are more than a quarter mile from Merriweather).  They believed that approximately 3,700 spaces could be cobbled together using parking easements at various existing GGP office properties around Symphony Woods and at the Columbia lakefront (e.g., at the American City Building).  They also recommended construction of an up-to-2,500-car parking garage on CA property in Symphony Woods.  Finally they looked to the Crescent development to provide even more parking, as noted in the quote above.</p>
<p>How does this match up with current plans for the Crescent area and Symphony Woods?  According to the recent <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-howard-hughes-0320-20140318,0,2645175.story" title="Urban streetscape planned for downtown Columbia’s crescent"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> article on the Crescent Area plans</a>, the entire Crescent development (including Areas 1, 2, and 3) might contain up to 4,360 spaces.  On the face of it this seems like enough spaces to replace those lost to development.</p>
<p>However there are a couple of potential problems: First, using the per-area breakdown listed in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> article (500 spaces for Area 1, 600 spaces for Area 2, and 1,200-1,900 spaces for Area 3) the total parking provided in the first phase of development will be only 2,300-3,000 spaces, well short of the 4,360 figure claimed for the full development and not nearly enough to replace the current spaces that will be lost as soon as construction in the Cresecent area begins.  Finally, it’s not clear how many of these spaces, whether in the first phase or later, might be made available for use by Merriweather patrons, or under what terms.</p>
<p>What about other sources of parking?  Recall that the original Merriweather advisory panel suggested constructing a parking garage in Symphony Woods on Columbia Association property.  That idea reappeared in the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation">original CA Inner Arbor concept presentation</a>, though scaled down somewhat to a 1,750-car facility (in conjunction with a transit center).  If constructed this garage would likely be sufficient to handle visitors to Inner Arbor facilities such as the Chrysalis amphitheatre, as well as to any future cultural facilities proposed for Symphony Woods itself, such as a replacement for the current Toby’s Dinner Theatre.  However it comes nowhere close to satisfying all of Merriweather’s parking requirements.  The associated transit center could help reduce the parking requirements, for example via a shuttle bus system that could allow people to park at more remote locations.  However that would require further agreements with other organizations like Howard Community College, and it’s not clear at this time how popular and effective such a service might actually be.</p>
<p>It’s also possible that future parking easements could be secured for the various office buildings around the mall and along Little Patuxent Parkway (as also recommended by the Merriweather advisory panel).  However note that the task of gaining easements is more complicated than previously because ownership of those buildings is now split between Howard Hughes (which owns <a href="http://www.howardhughes.com/properties/operating-properties/columbia-office-buildings.html">70 Corporate Center and the American City Building</a>, among others) and GGP (which retained ownership of <a href="http://www.ggp.com/properties/office-properties">10 Corporate Center through 60 Corporate Center</a>).</p>
<p>Where does that leave us?  The short answer is that regardless of whether and when ownership of Merriweather Post Pavilion itself is transferred to the Downtown Arts and Culture Commission, the pavilion has no future unless the parking problem is addressed.  In turn the Merriweather parking problem can be completely addressed only with the cooperation of Howard Hughes Corporation, regardless of whether or not Howard Hughes actually ends up developing the Crescent property.  Parking thus serves as a potential bargaining chip for Howard Hughes in its dispute with Howard County, just as issuance of building permits is a bargaining chip for the county.</p>
<p>In the end realizing people’s dreams for a vital and vibrant downtown Columbia depends on the cooperation of many different players, including not only Howard County and Howard Hughes, but also the Columbia Association, the Inner Arbor Trust, GGP and other property owners, and those private organizations and individuals who can help provide the financing to turn paper plans into attractive built and natural environments.  As I wrote above, I have no idea who is “right” in the dispute between Howard County and the Howard Hughes Corporation, and in some sense the idea of either side being “right” or not is beside the point.  I simply hope the county and Howard Hughes can find a mutually acceptable resolution to their differences, and that as downtown Columbia evolves both residents and visitors alike can enjoy visits to Merriweather Post Pavilion and Symphony Woods without having major problems just trying to park.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The whole report is worth reading; it contains a wealth of information relating to Merriweather Post Pavilion, much of which is still relevant and likely to be echoed in the Merriweather studies currently being commissioned by Howard County and Howard Hughes respectively.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Two visions for Symphony Woods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/03/09/two-visions-for-symphony-woods/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 09 Mar 2014 19:23:25 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/03/09/two-visions-for-symphony-woods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This week &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/readersrespond/bs-ed-gehry-letter-20140305,0,7337796.story&#34; title=&#34;Frank Gehry: Inner Arbor plans ‘deeply disturb me’ [Letter] &#34;&gt;Frank Gehry weighed in&lt;/a&gt; on the Inner Arbor plans, plans that (in Gehry’s words) “deeply disturb me.”  One could say a lot about this: About Gehry’s motivations and who might have influenced him to speak out (see &lt;a href=&#34;http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2014/03/saturday-linkety-links.html&#34; title=&#34;Saturday Linkety-Links&#34;&gt;Julia McCready&lt;/a&gt;), whether today’s Columbia is as welcoming to talented young architects as the Columbia of the 60s and 70s (see &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2014/03/young-new-architect-from-out-of-state.html&#34; title=&#34;Young New Architect From Out-of-State&#34;&gt;Tom Coale&lt;/a&gt;), whether these exercises in WWJRD (“What would Jim Rouse do”) are useful or not (see Jesse Newburn in her comments on Gehry’s letter), and how this might connect with the desire by members of the CA board to regain influence over the Inner Arbor Trust (see &lt;a href=&#34;http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2014/03/the-ca-board-solving-problems-that-dont-exist-since-1967.html&#34; title=&#34;The CA Board: Solving Problems that Don’t Exist Since 1967&#34;&gt;Bill “Marshmallow Man” Woodcock&lt;/a&gt;).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/readersrespond/bs-ed-gehry-letter-20140305,0,7337796.story" title="Frank Gehry: Inner Arbor plans ‘deeply disturb me’ [Letter] ">Frank Gehry weighed in</a> on the Inner Arbor plans, plans that (in Gehry’s words) “deeply disturb me.”  One could say a lot about this: About Gehry’s motivations and who might have influenced him to speak out (see <a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2014/03/saturday-linkety-links.html" title="Saturday Linkety-Links">Julia McCready</a>), whether today’s Columbia is as welcoming to talented young architects as the Columbia of the 60s and 70s (see <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2014/03/young-new-architect-from-out-of-state.html" title="Young New Architect From Out-of-State">Tom Coale</a>), whether these exercises in WWJRD (“What would Jim Rouse do”) are useful or not (see Jesse Newburn in her comments on Gehry’s letter), and how this might connect with the desire by members of the CA board to regain influence over the Inner Arbor Trust (see <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2014/03/the-ca-board-solving-problems-that-dont-exist-since-1967.html" title="The CA Board: Solving Problems that Don’t Exist Since 1967">Bill “Marshmallow Man” Woodcock</a>).</p>
<p>However I want to step back a bit and look at a more fundamental question: Exactly what role does and should Symphony Woods play in Columbia, and what vision should guide its future?  After reading Gehry’s letter I did some googling for “history of Symphony Woods”; one of the first results I found was a <a href="http://columbiacompass.blogspot.com/2008/08/symphony-woods-history.html" title="Symphony Woods History">blog post on the subject</a> that Bill Santos published over five years ago.  At the time Bill was proposing that Symphony Woods wasn’t necessarily the old-growth forest that some people apparently talked it up as being, and might just have sprung up as new growth after a local sand and gravel operation shut down.  After Bill said his piece an anonymous commenter took him to task in an extended treatise on the likely history of the area, with evidence brought in from geology, old US Army maps, aerial photography, and the like, all in an effort to prove that Symphony Woods had likely been a mature forest since at least the early to mid 19th century, and possibly quite longer.</p>
<p>For what it’s worth I think our anonymous expert had the better of the argument in terms of the age of Symphony Woods.  But it was his or her final paragraph that intrigued me:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Franklin Township, NJ, ranked higher on Money Magazine’s list of small cities than Columbia, has succeeded in preserving a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutcheson_Memorial_Forest" title="Hutcheson Memorial Forest">500-acre old-growth virgin forest</a>.  Here we are now, finding it difficult to maintain just one small portion of ours, only 40 years ago designated as “permanent open space,” that designation not because those wild spaces were created just then at Columbia’s outset, but because they predated Columbia and were rightly recognized at the time as being an environmental asset worthy of preservation.  I think we can do better.</p>
</blockquote>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hutcheson-memorial-forest-surroundings.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hutcheson-memorial-forest-surroundings-embed.png"
         alt="Satellite image of Hutcheson Forest"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Satellite view of the Hutcheson Memorial Forest and surrounding area in Franklin Township NJ.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The implication was that Columbia, unlike its “betters,” was in essence destroying its precious natural heritage in the name of “progress.”  This story intrigued me.  Although I’ve been through Franklin Township I’d never heard of the forest in question (the William L. Hutcheson Memorial Forest, to give it its full name), and I thought it was worth investigating.  After all, maybe the anonymous commenter was right: Maybe in our haste to improve the Symphony Woods “experience” we in Howard County were and are throwing away our chance to preserve the last of an aeons-old forest.</p>
<p>It turns out that the story is more interesting and nuanced than it might appear at first glance, and the lessons it holds for Columbia are not nearly as straightforward as one might think.  First, consider the size of the forest.  Bill’s anonymous commenter was somewhat misleading (or misled): The actual area of old-growth forest in Hutcheson Memorial Forest is only 65 acres, not 500, per the Wikipedia article he or she linked to; the rest of the 500 acres is a combination of new-growth forests, abandoned farmland, and fields used as test plots by Rutgers University.  (See the <a href="http://rci.rutgers.edu/~hmforest/" title="William L.  Hutcheson Memorial Forest">Rutgers web site</a> for more information.)  The image I’ve included in this post (courtesy of Google Maps) is a satellite view of the <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@40.4967415,-74.5658505,2910m/data=!3m1!1e3">area surrounding Hutcheson Memorial Forest</a>.  The total area in the image is almost four square miles or almost 2,500 acres.  The 500 acre preserve is in the upper center of the image, below NJ 514 (Amwell Road), with the old growth forest comprising 65 acres in the midst of that.  Beyond Hutcheson Forest proper is more open space, including a golf course and park north of Amwell Road.  That’s important, because it gives the old-growth forest a buffer from encroaching development and means the entire forest has a better chance of being a sustainable ecosystem for the long term.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/symphony-woods-surroundings.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/symphony-woods-surroundings-embed.png"
         alt="Satellite vew of Symphony Woods"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Satellite view of Symphony Woods and surrounding area in Columbia MD.  Click for high-resolution version.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Now let’s turn to a satellite view of <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/@39.2080497,-76.8616696,2980m/data=!3m1!1e3">Symphony Woods and its surrounding area</a>, at the same scale and covering the same expanse, almost 2,500 acres.  Looks a little different, doesn’t it?  First, note that although the entire “Merriweather Park” area is over 46 acres, Merriweather Post Pavilion takes about 10 acres of that, so Symphony Woods itself covers only about 36 acres&mdash;a bit more than half the area of the core old-growth forest in Hutcheson Memorial Forest.  And of course Symphony Woods has no new-growth forest, farmland, or other open space as a buffer&mdash;it’s right up against a four-lane highway, four-lane local streets, mid-rise office towers, and a regional mall.  From that perspective pointing to Hutcheson Memorial Forest for inspiration is highly misleading; if Symphony Woods was indeed a thriving primeval forest and sustainable ecosystem then it was doomed from the moment Jim Rouse put shovel to earth at Columbia’s founding.</p>
<p>But maybe it’s not too late.  Maybe there’s a possible vision for the future of Symphony Woods that takes seriously the rhetoric about it being a precious natural asset, an ancient forest and oasis of calm in the heart of Columbia that should be preserved in a pristine state and not sullied by “out-of-scale ‘attractions’” (to quote Gehry).  If so then arguably the first element of that vision should be eliminating the largest and most out-of-scale ‘attraction’, namely Merriweather Post Pavilion itself.  Perhaps the original intent of the pavilion was justifiable, as a place to host classical music and dance performances for relatively small and well-behaved audiences in a beautiful wooded setting.  But now that Merriweather Post Pavilion is wholly given over to popular music, what justification remains?  I doubt they’d let even local heroes like Bruce Springsteen or Bon Jovi hold concerts in the middle of the Hutcheson Memorial Forest, so why should we allow Symphony Woods to be polluted by the presence of random rockers and rappers and their rowdy and often inebriated fans?  Surely it would be better to demolish the Merriweather Post Pavilion structure, remove all outbuildings, fences, roads, and other intrusions, and let that area slowly return to its natural state, broken only by the occasional dirt or gravel path.</p>
<p>Next, if we follow this logic then we should immediately discontinue <a href="http://www.wineinthewoods.com/">Wine in the Woods</a> and prohibit any other large-scale events on the Symphony Woods and the (by now former) Merriweather Post Pavilion properties.  How can we justify the potential for damage inherent in packing thousands of people into a few acres of fragile forest ecosystem?  The woods should be for a few wanderers in nature, not for the teeming masses.</p>
<p>Finally, in this vision we scrap the development plans for downtown Columbia, most notably the <a href="http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/developers-plan-to-attract-business-in-crescent" title="Developers Plan to Attract Business in Crescent">Howard Hughes proposals for the Crescent area</a> immediately to the south of Symphony Woods.  We then consider taking any public or private funding that might go to the estimated $30 million cost of the Inner Arbor plan and purchasing as much of that land as possible from the Howard Hughes Corporation, to be incorporated into a new Symphony Woods nature preserve.  There’s not enough land in the area to create a 500-acre park, but we could at least provide a bit of buffer to protect the woods from the surrounding suburban and semi-urban development.</p>
<p>This is a radical vision to be sure, but it can be justified as the natural conclusion of viewing the eternal preservation of Symphony Woods in a pristine state as the first and foremost priority when considering its future.</p>
<p>On the other hand, there’s another vision for Symphony Woods: Accept that Columbia is not western Howard County, where sufficient open space still exists to create woods and nature preserves the size of the Hutcheson Memorial Forest.  Accept that Merriweather Post Pavilion is going to remain where it is.  People enjoy going to concerts there, it’s a major draw for visitors to Howard County and Columbia, and the immediate area is an appropriate place for further cultural and arts attractions that can complement what Merriweather Post Pavilion has to offer&mdash;a smaller alternate performance venue, a gallery and café, a playspace, and attractive and accessible paths to tie them together.  Rather than disturbing the woods anew every time an event like Wine in the Woods is held, install permanent infrastructure that can provide essential utilities like power, water, networking, and event access control across a wide expanse of the park, infrastructure that enhances the attractiveness of the natural setting rather than detracting from it.  And finally, accept the paradox that given its size and situation Symphony Woods is going to have to be actively managed on an ongoing basis in order to maintain its “natural” and “pristine” appearance for future generations to enjoy.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>So there we have it: two very different visions for the future of Symphony Woods.  The second vision is the one previously adopted by the Columbia Association, supported by Howard County government and local political, business, and culutral leaders, and now being implemented by the Inner Arbor Trust with the help of a team of talented designers.  The first vision has no one willing to advocate for it, even among those opponents of the Inner Arbor plan who cast themselves as the champions of Symphony Woods.  Why is that?</p>
<p>I don’t profess to know the hearts of Inner Arbor opponents, but it may simply be that they believe that the original Columbia plan for Symphony Woods and environs was the true and correct one, and that any deviations from it are a violation of the Columbia vision.  Or to put it less charitably: Since Jim Rouse saw fit to put a 15,000-person amphitheater and grounds in the middle of a mature forest, it’s OK.  Since Jim Rouse (or one of his disciples) didn’t propose the Inner Arbor plan, it’s not OK.  They have a perfect right to take that attitude, but at this point I have my own right to conclude that it doesn’t have all that much to do with preserving the environmental integrity of Symphony Woods, or for that matter the core question of what vision for Symphony Woods is best for Columbia’s future, as opposed to its past.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="38a34b95-001">Chris Bachmann (chris@chrisbachmann.com) - 2014-03-10 16:51</h4>
<p>Well, Rouse did say, &ldquo;Or will we provide new communities sensitively designed to meet the real needs of people; shaped to be in scale with people — communities in which people feel important and uplifted —where there is some hope of matching growth in numbers with growth in human personality, character, and creativity.&rdquo; <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.org/home/showdocument?id=5442">http://www.columbiaassociation.org/home/showdocument?id=5442</a> So I&rsquo;d day that the Inner Arbor plan is addressing that concept. Matching the area to the modern needs.</p>
<h4 id="38a34b95-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-03-10 23:58</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by, Chris! Of course, an Inner Arbor opponent could always reply to you, &ldquo;Even the devil can quote scripture.&rdquo; :-)</p>
<h4 id="38a34b95-003"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">Jessie Newburn</a> - 2014-03-11 02:11</h4>
<p>Great (excellent!) post, as always, Frank.</p>
<h4 id="38a34b95-004">Walter Carson (wcarson@columbiaunion.net) - 2014-03-11 14:08</h4>
<p>I need to speak with Frank Hecker directly. How do I do so? Thank you. Best wishes. [I&rsquo;ve removed Mr Carson&rsquo;s contact information and reached out to him separately.]</p>
<h4 id="38a34b95-006">Edwin Baker (catslidefarm@gmail.com) - 2014-04-03 20:00</h4>
<p>Mr. Hecker, You pose two &ldquo;visions&rdquo; of Symphony Woods; let me try a third. The Pavilion stays, is restored to something resembling its original condition. Ownership of the Pavilion is changed from &ldquo;make as much as we can&rdquo; to a music and arts venue for Howard County residents. The part of Symphony Woods between the Pavilion and the Mall are improved with a light touch benefiting the Pavilion and the residents of Columbia and visitors to the Pavilion. Other arts and cultural facilities are provided in areas that don&rsquo;t interfere with the Park and Pavilion, and are truly &ldquo;arts and cultural&rdquo; facilities, not the Disnyesque playground structures currently proposed (try to explain the cultural value of the &ldquo;catapiller&rdquo;). I&rsquo;ll vote for this, I bet Frank would as well. The Pavilion is nearing 50 years old and will soon be qualified for Historic Register status, it deserves it. Ted Baker</p>
<h4 id="38a34b95-005"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2014-04-04 01:09</h4>
<p>First, thanks for reading the blog and especially for leaving a comment. Second, you can call me Frank&ndash;this is a blog after all. Now, to address your comment: I don&rsquo;t think Merriweather will work as a local-only resource. The citizens advisory panel looked at a similar question back in 2004-2005 in the context of enclosing Merriweather and downsizing it, and they concluded there was no real demand for such a venue&ndash;it would face severe competition from similar spaces in the Baltimore/Washington corridor, and it wouldn&rsquo;t really address the problems that local arts groups had with existing spaces in the county. So why commit at least $15M (the low-end of renovation estimates) plus ongoing funding to keep Merriweather operating just for the few local events that might be suitable for it? Better to use that money to build an alternative purpose-built venue. Merriweather is what it is: A large-capacity outdoor amphitheater with a proven track record of successfully hosting popular music events. If we don&rsquo;t want to use it for that then we might as well tear it down.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The limits of “hands off” preservation strategies are evident even in the Hutcheson Memorial Forest.  As <a href="http://www.njskylands.com/pkhutch">noted by a local writer</a>, the area is subject to a rigorous “‘no management’ policy in the old growth forest, with only one trail allowed to be kept open.”  The result:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>These conditions are strictly respected, but the forest’s director, Dr. Edmund Stiles, is concerned about the inadvertent “management” caused by the surrounding land use.  … I feel sadness walking through this old patch of woods, so precious its preservation was written in stone.  The demand that it remains “preserved”&mdash;untouched&mdash;is promoting its decline.  In its state of flux over time, the rules that vow to protect it will likely destroy it.</p>
</blockquote>
&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Howard County Design Advisory Panel approves the Inner Arbor plan</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/02/27/the-howard-county-design-advisory-panel-approves-the-inner-arbor-plan/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 27 Feb 2014 05:14:25 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/02/27/the-howard-county-design-advisory-panel-approves-the-inner-arbor-plan/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I was fortunate last night to be able to attend the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountymd.gov/Design_Advisory_Panel.htm&#34;&gt;Howard County Design Advisory Panel&lt;/a&gt; meeting to review the &lt;a href=&#34;http://inartrust.org/theplan/&#34;&gt;Inner Arbor plan&lt;/a&gt;.  It was a very interesting and informative meeting, and I hope to be able to blog about it in much more details&amp;mdash;especially since it answered many of the remaining questions I had about various elements of the plan.  For now though I’ll simply note that the panel unanimously approved the plan as submitted.  The major substantive concern raised was whether the paths in the central part of the park were quite wide enough to handle the anticipated pedestrian traffic, especially during Wine in the Woods and major events at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  The panel asked the design team to take a second look at that.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was fortunate last night to be able to attend the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/Design_Advisory_Panel.htm">Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a> meeting to review the <a href="http://inartrust.org/theplan/">Inner Arbor plan</a>.  It was a very interesting and informative meeting, and I hope to be able to blog about it in much more details&mdash;especially since it answered many of the remaining questions I had about various elements of the plan.  For now though I’ll simply note that the panel unanimously approved the plan as submitted.  The major substantive concern raised was whether the paths in the central part of the park were quite wide enough to handle the anticipated pedestrian traffic, especially during Wine in the Woods and major events at Merriweather Post Pavilion.  The panel asked the design team to take a second look at that.</p>
<p>The panel members varied in the extent to which they expressed their opinions on the plan, but I think it’s fair to say that their opinions were pretty favorable overall.  Rob Hollis was one of the most enthusiastic; it’s worth quoting from his comments:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>First of all, wow!  I’m very impressed with the scope of the presentation, the variety, the thought that’s gone into every component of this.  . . .  We’ve never seen anything this intense, this well put together.  . . .  The way in which you’ve put this team together is a flashback to the 60s: You’ve brought in talent from the outside to let a vision out.  . . .  People from everywhere know about Columbia for what this vision was [that was] set forth many years ago.  I think this park is a microcosm of that.  . . .  It’s sort of a tribute to Columbia, and a tribute to your team.  It’s great!</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Since I’m just an opinionated blogger and have zero pretensions to journalistic objectivity, I feel no compunction about appropriating Rob’s words to express my own thoughts about the evening: “Wow!  . . .  It’s great!”</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 9: Piecing together the Chrysalis</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/02/25/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-9-piecing-together-the-chrysalis/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 25 Feb 2014 05:12:48 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/02/25/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-9-piecing-together-the-chrysalis/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;[This post continues my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/tag/innerarbor/&#34; title=&#34;Frank Hecker blog posts on the Inner Arbor project&#34;&gt;ongoing series&lt;/a&gt; on the evolution of the Inner Arbor plan for Symphony Woods in downtown Columbia, Maryland.]&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Contrary to the conclusion of &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2014/02/23/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-8/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 8: Revising the plan&#34;&gt;my last post&lt;/a&gt;, I’ve decided to hold off posting about the Merriground and the Merriweather Horns until after the design advisory panel meeting.  Instead I wanted to go back to one of my earlier Inner Arbor posts and revisit the topic of the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 6: The Chrysalis&#34;&gt;Chrysalis amphitheater&lt;/a&gt;.  At the time I wasn’t entirely clear how the flowing shapes of the Chrysalis were to be constructed; I wasn’t even sure what material the Chrysalis was to be made of.  Now I have a much better idea of what’s going on with the structure, and wanted to pass that information on to you, my readers.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[This post continues my <a href="/tag/innerarbor/" title="Frank Hecker blog posts on the Inner Arbor project">ongoing series</a> on the evolution of the Inner Arbor plan for Symphony Woods in downtown Columbia, Maryland.]</p>
<p>Contrary to the conclusion of <a href="/2014/02/23/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-8/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 8: Revising the plan">my last post</a>, I’ve decided to hold off posting about the Merriground and the Merriweather Horns until after the design advisory panel meeting.  Instead I wanted to go back to one of my earlier Inner Arbor posts and revisit the topic of the <a href="/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 6: The Chrysalis">Chrysalis amphitheater</a>.  At the time I wasn’t entirely clear how the flowing shapes of the Chrysalis were to be constructed; I wasn’t even sure what material the Chrysalis was to be made of.  Now I have a much better idea of what’s going on with the structure, and wanted to pass that information on to you, my readers.</p>
<p>First, though, some words about the architect of the Chrysalis, Marc Fornes of <a href="http://theverymany.com/">THEVERYMANY</a>.  Recently Fornes and THEVERYMANY were selected as one of ten architects and firms comprising the <a href="http://archrecord.construction.com/features/designvanguard/2013.asp">Architectural Record Design Vanguard 2013</a>.  To quote from <a href="http://archrecord.construction.com/features/designvanguard/">the site</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Architectural Record’s annual Design Vanguard issue brings together the architects who are already doing some of the most innovative work in the field and will lead the profession in the future.  They are the firms at the forefront of design and the architects are the ones to watch.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>This harks back to a point I made earlier about the Inner Arbor design team: From my perspective a key goal in putting together the team was/is/should be <em>not</em> to pursue a laundry list of current “household name” architects (including having Frank Gehry revisit Columbia fifty years on), it’s to find talented architects who are doing exciting things and are poised to break out to greater fame, and then give them the opportunity to help achieve that fame by designing something significant for downtown Columbia.</p>
<p>In my opinion Marc Fornes and THEVERYMANY are very much in that mold.  If you look through the <a href="http://archrecord.construction.com/features/designvanguard/2013/1312-Marc-Fornes-TheVeryMany.asp">feature Architectural Record did on him and his firm</a>, and especially the <a href="http://archrecord.construction.com/features/designvanguard/2013/1312-Marc-Fornes-TheVeryMany-slideshow.asp">accompanying slideshow</a>, note that his works thus far have mostly been relatively small-scale and almost experimental designs, many closer to sculpture than to traditional buildings.  The Chrysalis is the first large-scale commission for THEVERYMANY and could be a landmark in the firm’s evolution.</p>
<p>Now, back to the details of the Chrysalis itself.  Fornes has constructed previous structures out of small pieces of aluminum (or, for some structures, carbon fiber or plastic) cut from larger sheets using computer-controlled machines (so-called “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_control">Computer Numerical Control</a>” or CNC systems).  These pieces are then riveted or bolted together to built the structure, with a given structure containing up to several thousand of such pieces.  In many cases submodules of the structure are constructed independently and then joined together at their seams.  For examples of the process see the <a href="http://archrecord.construction.com/features/designvanguard/2013/1312-Marc-Fornes-TheVeryMany-slideshow.asp">slide show</a> referenced in the Architectural Record feature, for example, slides 2 through 5 describing the Double Agent White structure, or slides 16 to 18 showing Y/Surf/Structure.  See in particular slide 17 showing a close-up view of the riveted pieces of one small section of Y/Surf/Structure; note that pieces of different colors are used to produce colored stripes on the completed structure.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/140124_amphi-model10_ps_fornes_s.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/140124_amphi-model10_ps_fornes_s-embed.jpg"
         alt="Chrysalis structural model"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Structural model of the Chrysalis at 1/15 scale.  Click for higher-resolution version.  Image © 2014 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As shown by a 1/15-scale structural model created by THEVERYMANY and depicted on its <a href="http://theverymany.com/buildings/13_merriweather-park/">web site</a>, the Chrysalis will be constructed in a similar way.  From a distance the Chrysalis model appears to have a smooth (or almost smooth) surface.  However as you get closer you see that the model is composed of multiple small pieces, each consisting of what appears to be an initially flat element (presumably cut from a larger sheet together with other pieces) that is then creased in multiple places.  (Viewed end-on each piece would then have an appearance similar to the letters “W” or “M,” albeit more flattened and with perhaps more creases, or like a section of a corrugated metal roof.)  Flaps extending from the lower side of each piece are then riveted to the upper side of the piece below it, with that piece in turn being riveted to the piece below it, and so on until you reach the ground.  The bottom pieces then attach to the foundation of the structure (in this case, the Chrysalis stage).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/140124_amphi-model5_ps_fornes_s.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/140124_amphi-model5_ps_fornes_s-embed.jpg"
         alt="Detail of the Chrysalis structural model"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Detail of the Chrysalis 1/15-scale structural model showing individual pieces.  Click for higher-resolution version.  Image © 2014 Marc Fornes; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The close-up view appears to show between a few dozen and a hundred or so pieces; the estimate depends on the size of each piece, which is difficult to tell in the image.  The close-up shows just one leg of the overall structure; the entire Chrysalis could contain from several hundred up to a few thousand pieces, again depending on the size of each piece.  Although I can’t recall where I read this, my understanding is that the pieces of the Chrysalis are to be made of aluminum; the structural color effects shown in the original Inner Arbor images would then be achieved by painting each piece a slightly different color.  In the lower parts of the Chrysalis the difference in color between adjacent pieces would be relatively great, producing pronounced horizontal stripes of color.  In the upper parts of the structure the color of the pieces could become lighter and the differences between pieces could be made less pronounced, producing a more subtle gradient of color.</p>
<p>As a side note, we can calculate a rough estimate for the weight of each piece of the Chrysalis.  Per Marc Fornes in the pre-submission meeting, the thickness of the Chrysalis shell is less than an inch.  If we assume that the maximum thickness corresponds to two pieces riveted together, each piece would then be about one centimeter in thickness.  (An inch is defined to be exactly 2.54 centimeters.)  The density of aluminum is 2,700 kilograms per cubic meter, so a sheet of aluminum one meter square and one centimeter thick would weigh 27 kilograms.  I’m guessing that a typical piece of the Chrysalis would be in the range of two to four square meters, and thus would weigh roughly 55-110 kilograms or about 120-240 pounds, about the weight of a person.  (Many of Fornes’s structures are perforated to reduce the total weight, but of course this would not be possible with the Chrysalis, which has to provide at least some shelter from the rain.)</p>
<p>Previous Fornes structures were assembled by <a href="http://krishenning.com/theverymany/">small groups working with simple tools</a>, but the Chrysalis would call for heavier equipment.  As noted above, some previous structures were assembled first into subcomponents that were then connected together; it’s not clear whether that would done for the Chrysalis or whether the structure would be assembled piece by piece on site.  In any case the construction of the Chrysalis will be like assembling a large 3-dimensional jigsaw puzzle; I look forward to seeing it come together.</p>
<p>A final thought: I mentioned in my earlier blog post that the Chrysalis is computer-generated and not just computer designed: It is the end product of sophisticated algorithms created to explore complex new 3-dimensional forms and then translate them into buildable structures using advanced computer-driven manufacturing techniques.  It’s a cliché of populist art criticism to say “my kid could have done that.”  Well, I think it’s highly unlikely that your kid could have created something like the Chrysalis, not to mention other even more complex Fornes-designed structures.  However in this time of increased emphasis on STEM education I also think it would be a great idea to have students learn about simplified versions of the techniques Fornes uses, perhaps as part of the <a href="http://hclibrary.org/index.php?page=691">HiTech initiative</a> sponsored by the Howard County Library System.  They might learn some skills that would stand them in good stead in the 21st century workplace, and at the same time gain a greater appreciation for the design achievement that is the Chrysalis.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 8: Revising the plan</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2014/02/23/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-8/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 23 Feb 2014 09:58:37 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2014/02/23/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-8/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;[This post continues my ongoing series on the evolution of the Inner Arbor plan for Symphony Woods in downtown Columbia, Maryland; for a list of previous posts see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-7/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 7: The Butterfly&#34;&gt;part 7&lt;/a&gt;.]&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since the &lt;a href=&#34;http://static.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52f0f4dbe4b0c058f608f49e/1391523035774/A%20Inner%20Arbor%20Trust%20Community%20Meeting%20Minutes.pdf%20copy.pdf&#34; title=&#34;Inner Arbor pre-submission community meeting minutes&#34;&gt;pre-submission meeting&lt;/a&gt; [PDF] on December 2, 2013, the Inner Arbor project has been moving forward: First, the Inner Arbor Trust has achieved &lt;a href=&#34;http://static.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52f68c1ae4b0e482df7a6215/1391889434918/Inner%20Arbor%20Trust%20is%20determined%20as%20a%20501c3%20by%20IRS.pdf&#34;&gt;501(c)(3) tax-exempt status&lt;/a&gt;.  This is important for at least three reasons: It means that contributions to the Inner Arbor Trust will be tax-deductible, which may help motivate some individuals and for-profit corporations to provide funding.  It may also make it easier for the Inner Arbor Trust to solicit donations from philanthropic foundations: Private foundations don’t care about the tax-deductibility aspect, but foundations typically make grants only to organizations with 501(c)(3) status.  Finally, it ensures at least a basic level of financial transparency for the Inner Arbor Trust, since 501(c)(3) organizations must make their Federal tax returns (the so-called Form 990) available for public inspection.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[This post continues my ongoing series on the evolution of the Inner Arbor plan for Symphony Woods in downtown Columbia, Maryland; for a list of previous posts see <a href="/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-7/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 7: The Butterfly">part 7</a>.]</p>
<p>Since the <a href="http://static.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52f0f4dbe4b0c058f608f49e/1391523035774/A%20Inner%20Arbor%20Trust%20Community%20Meeting%20Minutes.pdf%20copy.pdf" title="Inner Arbor pre-submission community meeting minutes">pre-submission meeting</a> [PDF] on December 2, 2013, the Inner Arbor project has been moving forward: First, the Inner Arbor Trust has achieved <a href="http://static.squarespace.com/static/51e1bf57e4b0e2abc3e95f77/t/52f68c1ae4b0e482df7a6215/1391889434918/Inner%20Arbor%20Trust%20is%20determined%20as%20a%20501c3%20by%20IRS.pdf">501(c)(3) tax-exempt status</a>.  This is important for at least three reasons: It means that contributions to the Inner Arbor Trust will be tax-deductible, which may help motivate some individuals and for-profit corporations to provide funding.  It may also make it easier for the Inner Arbor Trust to solicit donations from philanthropic foundations: Private foundations don’t care about the tax-deductibility aspect, but foundations typically make grants only to organizations with 501(c)(3) status.  Finally, it ensures at least a basic level of financial transparency for the Inner Arbor Trust, since 501(c)(3) organizations must make their Federal tax returns (the so-called Form 990) available for public inspection.</p>
<p>On a more interesting topic (for those of us who are not nonprofit lawyers), the Inner Arbor Trust has <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-0220-20140219,0,665407.story" title="Playground, acoustics added to Inner Arbor park">published some revisions</a> to the Inner Arbor plan in advance of its presenting the design to the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/Design_Advisory_Panel.htm">Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a>.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  (The Inner Arbor Trust had previously <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-glances-inner-arbor-20140206,0,971293.story" title="Inner Arbor Trust submits plans to Howard Co.">submitted its site development plan</a> to the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/Departments.aspx?id=163">Howard County Department of Planning and Zoning</a> in early February.)  The new plan includes two major changes, the replacement of the Play Maze feature and the addition of several new soundscape features.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-original-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-original-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Merriweather Park original plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Original Merriweather Park master plan, as presented at the pre-submission meeting December 2, 2013.  Click for high-resolution version.  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As seen in the above graphic, the Play Maze feature was originally proposed for the northern part of the park, immediately northeast of the Picnic Table.  As seen in the graphic below, the area of the Play Maze is now proposed to be left as open space.  To fulfill the function of the Play Maze the Inner Arbor Trust has proposed the Merriground, a new feature located in a space the original plan had earmarked for a “to be determined” feature referred to as the Nest.</p>
<p>The original plan also had two features near the northwest and west entrances to the park, the Word Art and Letter Garden respectively.  The new plan shows soundscape features at all four entrances to the park; the features are collectively referred to as the Merriweather Horns.  The revised plan does not show the Word Art and Letter Garden features, but the accompanying <a href="/assets/texts/trust-press-release-merriweather-horns-and-merriground-february-19-2014.pdf" title="Two more Strategic Art designs, Merriweather Horns and Merriground, for Merriweather Park">press release</a> [PDF] doesn’t explicitly mention them as being replaced.  Presumably this will be clarified at the Design Advisory Panel meeting.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/merriweather-park-revised-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/merriweather-park-revised-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Revised Merriweather Park plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Revised Merriweather Park master plan, as published prior to the Design Advisory Panel meeting February 26, 2014.  Click for high-resolution version.  Image © 2014 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I’ll have more to say on the revised plan in my next post.  In the meantime for more information see the <a href="/assets/texts/trust-press-release-merriweather-horns-and-merriground-february-19-2014.pdf" title="Two more Strategic Art designs, Merriweather Horns and Merriground, for Merriweather Park">original press release</a> [PDF], the <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-0220-20140219,0,665407.story" title="Playground, acoustics added to Inner Arbor park"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> story</a> by Luke Lavoie, and the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-business/wp/2014/02/18/this-merriground-hopes-to-get-you-to-come-out-to-columbia-md/" title="This ‘Merriground’ hopes to get you to come out to Columbia, Md."><em>Washington Post</em> story</a> by Dan Beyers; for more opinions see the <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2014/02/the-badass-inner-arbor.html" title="The Badass Inner Arbor">blog post</a> by Bill “Marshmallow Man” Woodcock.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="41b58c61-001"><a href="http://hocoblogs.wordpress.com/2014/02/24/social-media-scorecard-for-hocopolitics-party-thursday-and-hecker-takes-on-the-innerarbor/">Social media scorecard for #HoCoPolitics, party Thursday and Hecker takes on the #InnerArbor | HoCoBlogs in the Community</a> - 2014-02-25 02:54</h4>
<p>[…] Frank Hecker takes on the Inner Arbor for his next series If you remember Frank Hecker’s HoCo Redistricting exegis, which he eventually turned into an ebook, you know he can *go deep!* He’s now taken on the Inner Arbor as a subject and his pieces are worth a look. […]</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>For those wishing to attend, the meeting is at 7 pm on Wednesday, February 26, in the Ellicott City Room of the George Howard building, 3430 Court House Drive, Ellicott City, Maryland.  Note that if you do attend the meeting you can discuss it the next evening at the <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com/e/hocoblogs-party-at-white-oak-tavern-tickets-10382643767">HoCoBlogs party</a>, 5:30-7:30 pm on Thursday, February 27th, at the White Oak Tavern, 10030 Baltimore National Pike, Ellicott City, Maryland.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 7: The Butterfly</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-7/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 09 Dec 2013 19:30:56 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-7/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Metamorphosis produces the Butterfly, as I conclude my comments on the features of the Inner Arbor plan as presented at the pre-submission meeting on December 2.  For context and more information see other posts in this series:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ol&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1&#34;&gt;Addressing concerns raised at the pre-submission meeting&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2&#34;&gt;An overview of the Inner Arbor plan, and more comments and concerns&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 3&#34;&gt;Word Art, the Letter Garden, and the Maze&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 4&#34;&gt;The Picnic Table and the Lily Pads&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/08/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-5/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 5&#34;&gt;The Caterpillar&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 6&#34;&gt;The Chrysalis&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;The Butterfly&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ol&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “&lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods&#34;&gt;Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods&lt;/a&gt;” at the Columbia Patch.  For more on the vision behind the Inner Arbor plan and some inspirations for its features, see the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation&#34;&gt;Columbia Association’s original presentation on the Inner Arbor plan&lt;/a&gt;.  As with the other features I focus on the following questions for the Butterfly: Does it work?  Is it beautiful?  Will it last?  What’s the cost?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Metamorphosis produces the Butterfly, as I conclude my comments on the features of the Inner Arbor plan as presented at the pre-submission meeting on December 2.  For context and more information see other posts in this series:</p>
<ol>
<li><a href="/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1">Addressing concerns raised at the pre-submission meeting</a></li>
<li><a href="/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2">An overview of the Inner Arbor plan, and more comments and concerns</a></li>
<li><a href="/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 3">Word Art, the Letter Garden, and the Maze</a></li>
<li><a href="/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 4">The Picnic Table and the Lily Pads</a></li>
<li><a href="/2013/12/08/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-5/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 5">The Caterpillar</a></li>
<li><a href="/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 6">The Chrysalis</a></li>
<li>The Butterfly</li>
</ol>
<p>For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “<a href="http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods">Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods</a>” at the Columbia Patch.  For more on the vision behind the Inner Arbor plan and some inspirations for its features, see the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation">Columbia Association’s original presentation on the Inner Arbor plan</a>.  As with the other features I focus on the following questions for the Butterfly: Does it work?  Is it beautiful?  Will it last?  What’s the cost?</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Graphic of Merrieather Park master plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Overview of the proposed Merriweather Park, showing features proposed for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan.  The Butterfly is in the southeast part of the parcel, in the lower right corner.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Butterfly is located in the southeast portion of the Symphony Woods parcel that’s covered by the initial Inner Arbor plan, between Merriweather Post Pavilion and the Chrysalis amphitheater.  Like the Chrysalis, the Butterfly is beyond the east Gateway of the Caterpillar for visitors coming from the northeast or northwest park entrances, in the area of Symphony Woods intended for cultural events as opposed to play and picnicking.  In addition to being convenient to Merriweather Post Pavilion and the Chrysalis, the Butterfly could also be easily reached from the “arts village” and Columbia Association headquarters proposed for the eastern part of Symphony Woods in the original Inner Arbor concept plan.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/12-merriweather-park-the-butterfly-northern-pov.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/12-merriweather-park-the-butterfly-northern-pov-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Butterfly"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Butterfly in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan.  The view is from the north, walking from the Chrysalis towards Merriweather Post Pavilion.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Butterfly is a café and gallery space.  In some ways it is the successor to the outdoor café proposed as part of the <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-symphony-woods-0328-2-20130326,0,741084.story" title="Advocates of fountain, cafe present redesigned plan for Symphony Woods">Cy Paumier plan for Symphony Woods</a>, but its siting and intended audience are quite different.  The café in the Paumier plan was to be located in the northern part of Symphony Woods next to the proposed fountain, and was intended in large part as a way to draw people into Symphony Woods.  Whether or not it would have actually done so is an open question.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>The Butterfly, on the other hand, is sited not in the northern “play and picnicking” part of Symphony Woods, but adjacent to Merriweather Post Pavilion (right up against the property line, in fact) and the Chrysalis amphitheater, as well as to any future developments in the proposed Arts Village area of Symphony Woods.  Its main customer base would thus be people attending concerts and cultural events, supplemented by other visitors to the park or (if the CA headquarters is moved to Symphony Woods) by CA employees.</p>
<p>As a café the Butterfly has two main areas proposed to serve food and drink (if I recall the plans correctly), in two of the four “wings” of the building, and either two or three areas in which to consume them: Perhaps a small area within the building itself, on an outside deck on the Chrysalis side of the building, and on the roof.  Based on the overhead view rendering (see below), the outside deck could accommodate at least a dozen or more tables and several dozen people, and the roof area could easily host one or two hundred people, either standing or sitting on steps built into the roof over one wing.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  So the building and the immediate area could likely host up to a few hundred people.  (By comparison, the <a href="http://www.rollingstone.com/music/lists/the-best-amphitheaters-in-america-20130620/merriweather-post-pavilion-columbia-maryland-19691231">listed capacity of Merriweather Post Pavilion</a> is 15,000 people, and <a href="http://ellicottcity.patch.com/groups/around-town/p/10-things-to-know-about-wine-in-the-woods-2013-1c53144b">daily attendance at Wine in the Woods</a> is about that large as well.)</p>
<p>The building itself would be accessible from both the Merriweather Post Pavilion side and the Chrysalis side, with glass walls providing a view through the building and a visual connection between the pavilion area and the woods.  The roof could be reached from stairs on two of the wings (shown most clearly in the two images below), as well as by elevator.  (The elevator is not shown on the images but is presumably in one of the two rooms that open onto the roof; the high-resolution image for the overhead view shows a person in a wheelchair on the roof.)</p>
<p>As noted above the building itself would contain gallery space in one or two of the wings.  The roof could also be used for performances, with the audience either sitting on the steps of one wing or standing in the others.  (The high-resolution image shows a dance performance in the center of the roof.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/13-merriweather-park-the-butterfly-westerly-pov.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/13-merriweather-park-the-butterfly-westerly-pov-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Butterfly, westerly view"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Butterfly in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan, viewed from the west, showing a reflective wall.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>While it’s not as immediately visually striking as the Chrysalis, in my opinion the Butterfly could end up the most beautiful structure in Symphony Woods, despite its relatively mundane purpose.  Frank Gehry once modestly referred to the Rouse building as an “<a href="http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/blog/real-estate/2013/10/architecture-review-frank-gehrys.html?page=all">elegant warehouse</a>”; similarly the Butterfly can be thought of as an “elegant concession stand.”  In the rendering it appears as a very light building that almost floats above the earth, with glass walls at the two main entrances and a wooden roof.</p>
<p>The Butterfly echoes Merriweather Park Pavilion in its use of natural materials and the amphitheater-like configuration of the roof, while echoing the curved forms of the Chrysalis&mdash;the concave upward swoop of the roofline mirroring in reverse the convex roof of the Chrysalis.  Meanwhile the reflective metal surfaces of the exterior walls at the ends of the four wings literally mirror the surrounding woods, while the concave forms of the mirrored surface echoes the concavity of the roofline.  (You can see the slight concavity of the walls in the high-resolution image of the westerly view above.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/11-merriweather-park-the-butterfly.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/11-merriweather-park-the-butterfly-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Butterfly, view from above"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Butterfly in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan, viewed from above, showing the deck on the Chrysalis side and the plaza on the Merriweather side.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>What could go wrong in terms of maintainability or cost?  One major issue that could compromise the elegance of the design is the need to put utility structures on the roof for air conditioning, heating, and other purposes.  (These would also get in the way of rooftop visitors, of course.)  The presenters at the pre-submission meeting speculated on the possibility of using a geothermal energy system in order to lessen this problem, but that would add additional complexity to the design that could drive up costs.  There are also other practical considerations that could mar the clean lines of the roof and walls, such as the need for exhaust fans in kitchens if cooking is to be done on site.  I’m not an expert in these matters, so I’ll just have to wait for further refinements to the design to be released in order to see how such practicalities get addressed.</p>
<p>This concludes my initial thoughts on the Inner Arbor designs, though I may revisit my comments as the designs are refined and more information is released by the Inner Arbor Trust.  In the meantime if you see errors of fact in anything I’ve written or disagree strongly about my conclusions, please feel free to let me know in the comments or otherwise.</p>
<p>I want to close by talking a bit more about why the Butterfly is my favorite design of all those proposed for Symphony Woods.  In line with the theme of metamorphosis some might see the Butterfly standing at the end of a sequence that begins with the Caterpillar and continues with the Chrysalis.  That’s a valid metaphor, especially since the Butterfly seems almost poised to take flight.  However I also see the Butterfly as standing both literally and metaphorically between the Merriweather Post Pavilion, a symbol of Columbia’s past, and the Chrysalis, a vision of Columbia’s and Howard County’s potential future as a community in which the fine arts and high technology do not just co-exist and flourish together, but inspire and cross-pollinate each other.</p>
<p>About fifty years ago Columbia was found and Howard County irrevocably changed from a rural area of farms and forests to a thriving suburban community of subdivisions and office parks.  Some of us were alive when that happened; many of us will not be alive when Columbia celebrates its one hundredth birthday, and will never know what Columbia could become by then.  The development of downtown Columbia is a critical step toward building Columbia’s and Howard County’s future, and the Inner Arbor plan is a critical step toward building Columbia’s downtown.  Even if I don’t survive to see Columbia’s 100th birthday, I hope to be able to raise a toast to its 50th in the café at the Butterfly.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>For example, at one point Dennis Lane <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2011/07/dream-team-nightmare.html">quoted the comments of Rob Hollis</a> of the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/Design_Advisory_Panel.htm">Howard County Design Advisory Panel</a>, from a design review of one of the iterations of the Cy Paumier plan:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Parks that most successfully accommodate a café will usually have enough mass of park users for the economics to work.  The café is not the draw but the support for the place to go.  There needs to be an amenity of significance to populate the café (i.e.: a playground, skating rink, etc).  Aside from concert days, is there such a draw?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Dennis then went on to claim, “The answer to that would be no.”&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>In the overhead rendering of the Butterfly I counted about 150 people on the roof, and it’s not particularly crowded.  The wing of the roof with steps for seating looks as if it could hold almost a hundred people by itself.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 6: The Chrysalis</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 09 Dec 2013 00:32:43 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/09/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-6/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;After the Caterpillar comes the Chrysalis, as I continue my comments on the Inner Arbor plan.  For context and more information see other posts in this series (&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 3&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 4&#34;&gt;part 4&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 5&#34;&gt;part 5&lt;/a&gt;).  For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “&lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods&#34;&gt;Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods&lt;/a&gt;” at the Columbia Patch.  For more on the vision behind the Inner Arbor plan and some inspirations for its features, see the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation&#34;&gt;Columbia Association’s original presentation on the Inner Arbor plan&lt;/a&gt;.  Again my focus is on the following questions for each feature: Does it work?  Is it beautiful?  Will it last?  What’s the cost?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After the Caterpillar comes the Chrysalis, as I continue my comments on the Inner Arbor plan.  For context and more information see other posts in this series (<a href="/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1">part 1</a>, <a href="/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2">part 2</a>, <a href="/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 3">part 3</a>, <a href="/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 4">part 4</a>, <a href="/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 5">part 5</a>).  For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “<a href="http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods">Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods</a>” at the Columbia Patch.  For more on the vision behind the Inner Arbor plan and some inspirations for its features, see the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation">Columbia Association’s original presentation on the Inner Arbor plan</a>.  Again my focus is on the following questions for each feature: Does it work?  Is it beautiful?  Will it last?  What’s the cost?</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Graphic of Merrieather Park master plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Overview of the proposed Merriweather Park, showing features proposed for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan.  The Chrysalis is in the southeast part of the parcel, in the lower right corner.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Chrysalis is located on the southeast portion of the Symphony Woods parcel that’s covered by the initial Inner Arbor plan.  From the perspective of how visitors move through the park, the Chrysalis is beyond the east Gateway of the Caterpillar for visitors coming from the northeast or northwest park entrances.  It is thus in the area of Symphony Woods intended for cultural events as opposed to play and picnicking.  For visitors coming from Merriweather Post Pavilion the Chrysalis lies beyond the Butterfly; in their walk they will first encounter the Butterfly, walk around (or through) it, come to the sloping lawn for the amphitheater, and then to the Chrysalis itself.  (The sequence of images below illustrates the view along the way.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/8-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-longview.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/8-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-longview-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Chrysalis, viewed from a distance"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Chrysalis amphitheater in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan, viewed from a distance.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The purpose of the Chrysalis is very straightforward: It serves to cover the stage for a new outdoor amphitheater proposed for Symphony Woods.  From one point of view this amphitheatre can be thought of as a smaller version of Merriweather Post Pavilion, with no permanently fixed seating and no roof for the audience&mdash;like what Merriweather would be like if everyone sat on the lawn.  However the Chrysalis is much more bare bones than the pavilion, open on all sides and with limited or no permanent fixtures other than the structure itself.  In that sense it is more comparable to the stage at the downtown Columbia lakefront or the stage in Centennial Park, although somewhat larger than both of these.</p>
<p>One issue not addressed by the Inner Arbor presentation was how the Chrysalis would support sound and lighting equipment used for performances.  Clearly the amphitheater isn’t going to be hosting full-blown Merriweather-style light shows and sound stacks, and some such equipment can simply be temporarily installed to the back or sides of the stage.  However if the amphitheater is to be used for evening performances (which certainly makes sense) then some provision has to be made for a reasonably comprehensive lighting setup.  The images released by the Inner Arbor Trust don’t show any such thing, but images released by the designer, Marc Fornes of THEVERYMANY, on <a href="http://theverymany.com/">his web site</a> help resolve the mystery, showing a horizontal truss structure suspended from the underside of the roof of the Chrysalis, to which lights and sound equipment could be attached.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/9-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-exterior.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/9-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-exterior-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Chrysalis, exterior view"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Chrysalis in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan, exterior view.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Although the Chrysalis’s amphitheater area does not feature a roof over the audience, it does have shade from the trees of Symphony Woods, which the plan envisions preserving in place.  (See the above graphics.)  Although this means that some sight lines from the seating area to the stage will be partially blocked, the advantage is that the audience will be shaded from the sun (more so than at the amphitheaters at the lakefront or Centennial Park) and even in light rain they should be relatively protected from the elements.  When there are no concerts or other events at the amphitheater the Chrysalis doubles as a place for people to meet and sit (e.g., on the steps to the side of the stage).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/10-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-interior.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/10-merriweather-park-the-chrysalis-interior-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Chrysalis, interior view"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Chrysalis in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan, viewed from inside the structure.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As I noted previously, from a visual point of view the Chrysalis is the most striking of all of the proposed Inner Arbor features.  It’s no accident that all of the news stories about the unveiling of the Inner Arbor plan have featured the rendering of the Chrysalis as their main illustration.  The design is even more beautiful when seen from additional angles and from above, as shown on <a href="http://theverymany.com/">Marc Fornes’s web site</a>.  Forget straight lines, the structure doesn’t have even approximate axes of symmetry; its separate parts seem to simply flow out of the ground and join together, like a plant or (perhaps more appropriately) a force field.</p>
<p>The structure is designed to be very thin and rest lightly upon the earth; I recall Marc Fornes at the pre-submission meeting claiming that it was less than an inch thick (although I may have misheard this).  One interesting aspect is the color: It starts out a solid green color at the base, then turns into interspersed elements of green and white, and then becomes progressively lighter the higher one goes, fading somewhat into the sky.  The architectural renderings show the structure against a white background, which is somewhat misleading.  It would be interesting to see a rendering against the actual woods, to determine if the color chosen works as well in that setting.</p>
<p>One question left unanswered at the pre-submission meeting (at least to my recollection) is what exact material would be used to construct the Chrysalis, and whether the color would be inherent to the material (as with plastics) or externally applied (as with aluminum).  Many if not most of Fornes’s other works seem to have been designed for display in galleries or other indoor settings, and it’s an open question as to what level of maintenance the Chrysalis would need in order to look its best over the years.  As for the cost, the budgeted amount is apparently $3.5M (already committed by Howard County); whether there will be cost overruns, and how severe they will be, remains to be seen.</p>
<p>Rather than conclude on a matter of dollars and cents, I’ll close with some thoughts about the Chrysalis in the context of the site and the times.  As noted above, the Chrysalis in effect serves the same function as the existing Frank Gehry-designed Merriweather Post Pavilion, but otherwise is very different from the pavilion and in a sense engages in conversation with it: Where the pavilion is angular and uses wood and other materials to effect a natural appearance, the Chrysalis is completely curved and (as currently envisioned) uses materials and colors that stand out from the landscape.  The Chrysalis is a structure of the early part of the 21st century, as Merriweather Post Pavilion was one of the mid-to-late 20th century.</p>
<p>In its general appearance the Chrysalis brings to mind <a href="http://duranvirginia.wordpress.com/2012/12/27/curiosities-10-examples-of-biomorphic-architecture/">examples</a> of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomorphism">biomorphic</a> architecture, a style that goes back as far as the late 19th and early 20th centuries and Antoni Gaudí’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sagrada_Fam%C3%ADlia">Sagrada Família church</a>, but which has become more popular in the late 20th and early 21th century as advanced computer modeling and analysis have made such structures easier to design and build.  (Frank Gehry’s own post-Columbia buildings, including the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guggenheim_Museum_Bilbao">Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao</a>, are also examples of this trend.)</p>
<p>However despite its appearance and its name I think the significance of the Chrysalis lies not just in its resemblance to organic forms but also in its status as a structure that was computer-generated as opposed to simply being computer designed (i.e., with the aid of computer-based drawing and modeling programs).  Marc Fornes uses computer-executed algorithms that encode certain rules in order to generate and explore complex new 3-dimensional forms, to join such forms together and nest them within and next to each other, and to determine how such forms can be made into buildable structures.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>The Chrysalis and the working methods behind it are a natural fit for an area like Howard County that is home to a relatively high percentage of mathematicians and IT professionals and is working to promote STEM education and advanced manufacturing.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  If the Merriweather Post Pavilion and other Frank Gehry-designed structures in Columbia evoke the fondly-remembered past of Columbia, the Chrysalis points to its potentially-exciting future.</p>
<p>In my next and final post in this series I’ll discuss the last of the proposed Inner Arbor features, the Butterfly.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="6932961e-001"><a href="http://duranvirginia.wordpress.com" title="virginia.duran89@gmail.com">Virginia Duran</a> - 2013-12-09 09:39</h4>
<p>Interesting article!</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>For those interested in tools, Fornes appears to be using the <a href="http://www.rhino3d.com/">Rhinoceros 3-D modeling software</a> in combination with <a href="http://wiki.mcneel.com/developer/python">Python scripting</a> and the <a href="http://www.rhinonest.com/">RhinoNest</a> add-on.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Coincidentally, in the same week as the presentation of the Chrysalis and other Inner Arbor designs, the Howard County Economic Development Authority and the Maryland Center for Entrepreneurship <a href="http://www.hceda.org/news-events/news/2013/howard-county-3d-printing-initiative-takes-shape.aspx">announced</a> a new <a href="http://www.hceda.org/maryland-center-for-entrepreneurship/3d-maryland.aspx">3D Maryland initiative</a> to promote 3D printing and related innovative manufacturing techniques.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 5</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/08/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-5/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 08 Dec 2013 00:34:39 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/08/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-5/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I now turn to the most prominent features in the Inner Arbor plan, starting with the Caterpillar.  For context and more information see other posts in this series (&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 3&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 4&#34;&gt;part 4&lt;/a&gt;).  For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “&lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods&#34;&gt;Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods&lt;/a&gt;” at the Columbia Patch.  For more on the vision behind the Inner Arbor plan and some inspirations for its features, see the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation&#34;&gt;Columbia Association’s original presentation on the Inner Arbor plan&lt;/a&gt;.  My focus continues to be on the following questions for each feature: Does it work?  Is it beautiful?  Will it last?  What’s the cost?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I now turn to the most prominent features in the Inner Arbor plan, starting with the Caterpillar.  For context and more information see other posts in this series (<a href="/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1">part 1</a>, <a href="/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2">part 2</a>, <a href="/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 3">part 3</a>, <a href="/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 4">part 4</a>).  For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “<a href="http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods">Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods</a>” at the Columbia Patch.  For more on the vision behind the Inner Arbor plan and some inspirations for its features, see the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation">Columbia Association’s original presentation on the Inner Arbor plan</a>.  My focus continues to be on the following questions for each feature: Does it work?  Is it beautiful?  Will it last?  What’s the cost?</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Graphic of Merrieather Park master plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Overview of the proposed Merriweather Park, showing features proposed for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Caterpillar is the single most extensive feature proposed for the park, about twice as long as the Picnic Table.  It stretches over about a third of central Symphony Woods from east to west.  (If it were straight rather than curved it would cover about half the width of the park.)  See the above graphic to get a better idea of how the Caterpillar relates to the rest of the proposed Merriweather Park.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/6-merriweather-park-the-caterpillar.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/6-merriweather-park-the-caterpillar-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Caterpillar feature"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Caterpillar in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Caterpillar is designed to serve multiple functions (almost too many, as I’ll discuss below).  However its primary purpose is very simple: to provide an attractive visual and physical barrier between Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion.  The feature itself is 12 feet high, high enough to (hopefully) discourage rowdy visitors from climbing over it, but low enough to remain roughly human-scaled; see the graphic above for a sense of how it would appear in relation to people.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  Gateways at either end (where the Caterpillar structure arches over the paths) are designed to funnel pedestrian traffic between Symphony Woods and the pavilion.</p>
<p>Note that the Caterpillar would not entirely substitute for a fence.  For one thing, it does not cover the entire property line between Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion; at its eastern end it actually turns away from the property line and heads northeast.  For another, it is located some distance north of the property line, and thus divides a significant part of Symphony Woods closest to Merriweather from the area further north.  This arrangement appears to be due to the design team’s desire to integrate the Symphony Woods property with the existing Merriweather property: The area just south of the Caterpillar is intended as a transition zone containing both features in Symphony Woods (the Caterpillar Plaza) and features in Merriweather proper (including a proposed oval-shaped feature that I believe is intended to be a fountain).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/7-merriweather-park-the-caterpillar-gateway-information-booth.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/7-merriweather-park-the-caterpillar-gateway-information-booth-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Caterpillar Gateway and Information Booth"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Caterpillar Gateway and Information Booth-East, with the Chrysalis visible in the distance.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>On the eastern end the Caterpillar and its Gateway don’t strictly speaking divide Symphony Woods from Merriweather Post Pavilion.  Instead they divide the northern part of Symphony Woods (intended primarily for recreational activities like play and picnicking) from the eastern part of Symphony Woods, which contains features like the Chrysalis and the Butterfly that are intended as complements to Merriweather.  (This eastern area also provides a transition into the area east of Merriweather Park Pavilion proposed for the Arts Village and related cultural activities.)</p>
<p>In addition to acting as an attractive visual and physical barrier, the Caterpillar also helps with the prosaic problem of providing utilities for events such as Wine in the Woods.  The structure is hollow, and thus could contain electrical lines, water lines, computer network cables, and anything else needed to support events in Symphony Woods.  Some of the space immediately north and south of the Caterpillar could be used for event tents and other temporary structures, the fronts of which would face the paths and the backs of which would be next to any power or other utility outlets embedded in the Caterpillar.  The Caterpillar could also support wireless access points to provide WiFi signals to a good portion of Symphony Woods and to the transition area between the woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion.</p>
<p>The Caterpillar could also support a number of other uses: At either end it could contain information booths for visitors to the park or the pavilion.  Since the structure supports potted plants as the main visual element it could be used as a sort of community garden to raise flowers or herbs, and since it’s intended to be lighted from within it could be used for visual art of various sorts.  In the pre-submission meeting Martha Schwartz mentioned other uses as well, including having “portals” through which people could view artworks or educational displays, supporting “audioscapes” either natural (e.g., activated by the wind) or artificial (using speakers), or having the structure interact with visitors via smartphone or tablet apps.</p>
<p>A concern I have with these ancillary uses (which I tried but perhaps failed to clearly express in a question I asked at the meeting) is that having the Caterpillar simultaneously support too many functions could cause visitors to be confused as to what the Caterpillar is supposed to be for and how they should interact with it.  (It’s a similar problem to that seen in many interactive art installations.)  Perhaps one way to mitigate this concern would be to treat the Caterpillar as a platform capable of supporting multiple activities, but to limit the activities at any one time to a reasonable number.  For example, different seasons could call forth different uses of the Caterpillar, or one end of the Caterpillar could support one activity while another activity would be supported at the other end or in the middle section.</p>
<p>The Caterpillar is intended to be attractive, with its plants and interior lighting.  Could it be beautiful as well?  Quite possibly, if good taste is exercised in the selection of plants and the arrangement of the lighting.  However it could also end up looking tired and bedraggled if it were not well-maintained.  The Caterpillar is essentially a lighted garden arranged as a narrow strip and wrapped around a metal tube; it would require at least as much maintenance as any other garden, and likely more due to the difficulty of getting to the top part of the structure.  Watering and spraying the plants, rain and snow, and the occasional insults from ill-behaved visitors would also take their toll on the structure and any activities intended to be supported by it.</p>
<p>To re-use the analogy I used above, anyone who’s visited interactive art installations (and I’ve been to more than my share) is familiar with installations where half the features are completely inoperative and the other half are misbehaving in some way.  Whatever the initial cost of the Caterpillar might be, it’s likely to be outweighed by the long-term operational expenses of keeping up its appearance and making sure that all its functions are working properly.</p>
<p>In the next post I’ll continue with the life cycle of metamorphosis and look at perhaps the showiest feature of the Inner Arbor plan, the Chrysalis.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Note that in the master plan graphic the information booth on the west end of the Caterpillar is mislabeled “Information Booth-East,” and the booth on the east end is mislabeled “Information Booth-West.”&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The two gentleman in the front left of the picture always crack me up.  It’s clearly a warm spring or summer day and everyone else is dressed accordingly, but the two men in question persist in wearing dark clothing, jackets, and even a scarf (!) and cape (!!). The mystery is solved if we realize that they are intended to represent architects and designers, and are wearing the uniform of their profession.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 4</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 07 Dec 2013 00:36:01 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/07/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-4/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Today I focus on the Picnic Table and the Lily Pads as I continue my look at structures and other features proposed as part of the Inner Arbor plan.  For more background see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1&#34;&gt;part 1,&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt; of this series.  For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “&lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods&#34;&gt;Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods&lt;/a&gt;” at the Columbia Patch.  For more on the vision behind the Inner Arbor plan and some inspirations for its features, see the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation&#34;&gt;Columbia Association’s original presentation on the Inner Arbor plan&lt;/a&gt;.  As before, my focus is on the following questions for each feature: Does it work?  Is it beautiful?  Will it last?  What’s the cost?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today I focus on the Picnic Table and the Lily Pads as I continue my look at structures and other features proposed as part of the Inner Arbor plan.  For more background see <a href="/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1">part 1,</a> <a href="/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2">part 2</a>, and <a href="/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2">part 3</a> of this series.  For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “<a href="http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods">Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods</a>” at the Columbia Patch.  For more on the vision behind the Inner Arbor plan and some inspirations for its features, see the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation">Columbia Association’s original presentation on the Inner Arbor plan</a>.  As before, my focus is on the following questions for each feature: Does it work?  Is it beautiful?  Will it last?  What’s the cost?</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Graphic of Merrieather Park master plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Overview of the proposed Merriweather Park, showing features proposed for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The proposed Picnic Table feature is located near the Word Art and Play Maze features discussed in the previous post.  It is a relatively long and narrow feature, and stretches across a good portion of the north central portion of Symphony Woods, running from northwest to southeast.  The proposed Lily Pads feature is located near the northeast entrance to the park, the entrance closest to the existing Central Branch library.  See the above graphic to get a better idea of how these features relate to the rest of the proposed Merriweather Park.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/5-merriweather-park-the-picnic-table.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/5-merriweather-park-the-picnic-table-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Picnic Table feature"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Picnic Table in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Picnic Table is a clever solution to a significant problem: On the one hand, people going to Symphony Woods are going to want someplace to sit down, stretch out, and perhaps enjoy some food and drink, especially when attending major events like Wine in the Woods.  On the other hand, people would also like to be surrounded by the natural beauty of the woods in a setting more reminiscent of a primeval forest than a suburban lawn.  Unfortunately, primeval forests have significant disadvantages for sitting and stretching out: The forest floor is littered with leaves, twigs, and other detritus, there are bushes and other low plants in the way, there are rocks, tree roots, and generally uneven ground to pain the sensitive rump, and the ground is often cold, damp and even muddy.</p>
<p>The traditional solution to this problem is to provide groups of conventional picnic tables&mdash;the sort of thing you’ll find in many parks in Howard County and elsewhere, not to mention at interstate rest stops.  Alternatively, there might be no picnic tables at all, with guests forced to bring their own chairs or blankets in order to be able to sit dry and comfortably.</p>
<p>The proposed Picnic Table feature eliminates or at least minimizes the need for such ad hoc solutions, by providing what is in effect an artificial forest floor.  It is elevated high enough (about 22 inches) so that people near the edge of it could sit on it as they might sit on a (backless) park bench, but not so high as to require handrails for people walking on the Picnic Table surface.  People in the middle of the Picnic Table could stretch out with or without a blanket, out of contact with the dampness or muddiness of the ground.  Rather than a conventional wood, metal, or concrete table surface it is covered in high-quality artificial turf.  The turf would be at least semi-porous, so it might help eliminate the problem of rainwater pooling in lower-lying areas of the feature (a problem often seen with conventional surfaces).</p>
<p>Is it a beautiful feature?  No, but it would likely be more attractive than the typical park or rest stop picnic table.  And in any case the use of a natural color artificial turf (as opposed to the bright green variety seen in some football stadiums) would help the feature blend in with the surrounding trees and plants.  In effect the Picnic Table reverses the approach of the <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-symphony-woods-0328-2-20130326,0,741084.story">Cy Paumier plan</a>: Where that plan called for a central grassy area (the Central Park Commons), essentially pushing the trees aside in favor of something like an over-sized suburban lawn, the Picnic Table keeps the trees where they are and puts a narrow simulacrum of such a lawn around and next to them&mdash;with no lawnmowing required.</p>
<p>Will the Picnic Table prove to be durable?  I think it will get a lot of use (and thus abuse), particularly during high-traffic events like Wine in the Woods.  However unlike most artificial turf installations people would likely be sitting on it more than walking on it, and this may help lengthen its life.  As for its potential cost, I’m not sure.  If I’m understanding <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-turf-fields-1215-20111209,0,5532503.story" title="Artificial turf enthusiasts say fields needed sooner rather than later">this <em>Howard County Times</em> story</a> correctly, when Howard County deliberated in 2011 over funding conversion of grass football fields to artificial turf, the price tag was on the order of $1M per field.  The Picnic Table is considerably smaller in area than a football field (about as long but much narrower), but may use higher-quality turf, requires a support structure underneath it, and would be constructed in an environmentally-sensitive area.</p>
<p>In any case the Picnic Table almost certainly won’t be anywhere near the costliest feature proposed for the park.  There have been extras proposed for it, most notably Martha Schwartz speculating at the pre-submission meeting about heating the structure so that it could remain snow-free in winter.  However such extras aren’t central to the overall concept and purpose of the Picnic Table, and could be discarded or scaled back if budget concerns need to take precedence.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/3-merriweather-park-the-lily-pads.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/3-merriweather-park-the-lily-pads-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the Lily Pads feature"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Lily Pads in Symphony Woods / Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As the Word Art does at the northwest entrance to the proposed Merriweather Path, the Lily Pads serve to greet visitors arriving via the northeast entrance (for example, coming from Lake Kittamaqundi or the Central Branch library); they are a transition point into the area of Symphony Woods containing the new features proposed as part of the Inner Arbor plan.</p>
<p>Unfortunately I don’t have a copy of the presentation slides from the pre-submission meeting, nor do I have good notes relating to the Lily Pads.  Therefore I don’t have much to say about the Lily Pads beyond than what Andrew Metcalf noted in his article.  Per the article the Lily Pads will feature a raised boardwalk from which to view the woods; this boardwalk is shown in the master plan graphic above.  (I don’t have enough information to say one way or the other, but this boardwalk may be the evolution of the “treeline” elevated walkway proposed in the original Inner Arbor plan.)</p>
<p>The Merriweather Park master plan (see above graphic) also shows something called “The Nest” right next to the Lily Pads.  As I noted previously, this may be the “iconic interactive sculpture” referred to in CA’s original Inner Arbor presentation.  If so, the Lily Pads would ultimately serve as a spot from which to view the Nest and (assuming this is allowed) to also enter it.  As pictured the Lily Pads structure itself is relatively simple, almost comparable to a high-end backyard deck; its point would be to complement the Nest and not attract attention on its own.  The Nest itself would be a major sculptural commission (for inspirations see the CA Inner Arbor Plan) and thus not something we’d expect to see designs for at this stage of the Inner Arbor effort.</p>
<p>The Lily Pads are wooden platforms and walkways roughly analogous to the current walkway by Lake Kittamaqundi, as well as to boardwalks in Ocean City and other resort communities, and thus we could expect the cost and durability of the Lily Pads to be comparable to those other walkways.  The Inner Arbor plan as presented appears to have a lot of wooden walkways: not just around the Lily Pads but also at the three gateways next to Little Patuxent Parkway, near the eastern entrances to Symphony Woods (the Entry Plaza in the master plan), near Merriwether Post Pavilion (the Caterpillar Plaza), and elsewhere in the park.</p>
<p>If budget concerns grow then the pressure to economize on the use of wood will likely become intense, with critics calling for concrete and asphalt to be used instead wherever possible, My personal opinion is that this would be a false economy; the use of wood is much more compatible with the overall vision for the park.  I’ll note here that communities like Ocean City with extensive wooden boardwalks <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-03-08/travel/bs-md-oc-boardwalk-0309-2-20110308_1_concrete-tram-lane-boardwalk-business-owners-boardwalk-development-association" title="Ocean City boardwalk will remain all-wood">have chosen to stick with wood</a> despite the higher cost, and many have even <a href="http://mdcoastdispatch.com/2011/02/18/other-resorts-face-boardwalk-decisions-too/" title="Other Resorts Face Boardwalk Decisions, Too">considered upgrading</a> to more durable (and thus more expensive) types of wood.  We should look to their examples.</p>
<p>With that I’ll conclude this post.  I’ll next look at the larger and more showy structures envisioned in the Inner Arbor plan, beginning with the Caterpillar.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Corrected the spelling of Andrew Metcalf’s name.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 3</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 06 Dec 2013 00:16:59 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Today I look at the proposed structures and other features proposed for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan presented at the pre-submission meeting last Tuesday.  For more background see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/&#34; title=&#34;The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt; of this series.  For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “&lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods&#34;&gt;Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods&lt;/a&gt;” at the Columbia Patch.  My goal in this and subsequent posts is to critique each feature, measuring it against the following questions:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today I look at the proposed structures and other features proposed for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan presented at the pre-submission meeting last Tuesday.  For more background see <a href="/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1">part 1</a> and <a href="/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2">part 2</a> of this series.  For a good summary of the proposed features see Andrew Metcalf’s story “<a href="http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods">Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods</a>” at the Columbia Patch.  My goal in this and subsequent posts is to critique each feature, measuring it against the following questions:</p>
<p>Does it work?  In other words, does the feature address the problem for which it apparently was designed?  Will people use it in the intended way?  Are there other interesting and beneficial uses that people might find for it?</p>
<p>Is it beautiful?  Or, if not truly beautiful, is it at least attractive?  (How can we tell what’s beautiful rather than attractive?  By our reactions: We ooh, we aah, we spontaneously break into applause, we stop in our tracks when we encounter it.)</p>
<p>Will it last?  Over time how might the feature no longer work for people, or fail to retain its beauty or attractiveness?</p>
<p>What’s its cost?  Does the feature look like it might be especially expensive due to its materials, complexity of construction, or other factors?</p>
<p>I can’t provide complete answers for all these questions, of course.  I’m just an amateur critic, and don’t have any special insight into issues like construction costs and schedules.  However I’ll try to at least make a start.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Graphic of Merrieather Park master plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Overview of the proposed Merriweather Park, showing features proposed for Symphony Woods as part of the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The graphic above shows all the proposed features and their relationship to the current Symphony Woods and Merriweather Post Pavilion.  Note that a few of these features, most notably the Word Art and the Letter Garden, were presented at the pre-submission meeting but were not mentioned in Andrew Metcalfe’s breakdown of plan features.  Other features are proposed but have yet to be designed; these include the Nest, which I’m guessing is intended to be the “iconic interactive sculpture” mentioned in the <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation">original CA Inner Arbor plan presentation</a>, as well as some unnamed features proposed for the Merriweather Post Pavilion property.  Finally, note that the road to the left side of the graphic is not Broken Land Parkway, but is a planned road that would be built in future between Symphony Woods proper and yet-to-be-built downtown Columbia developments on the east site of Broken Land Parkway.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/2-merriweather-park-gateway-entrance.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/2-merriweather-park-gateway-entrance-embed.jpg"
         alt="Architectural rendering of the northwest entrance of Merriweather Park in the Inner Aebor plan, including the Word Art feature"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Word Art at the northwest entrance of Merriweather Park in the Inner Arbor plan.  (Click for high-resolution version.)  Image © 2013 Inner Arbor Trust; used with permission.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>The Word Art and Letter Garden features are intended to function as “arrival art,” something to welcome you to the park.  The Word Art feature in particular is intended to highlight events taking place in the park for people arriving via the northwest entrance.  (See for example the above graphic, with the letters announcing “ART IN THE WOODS TODAY.”)  The letters would be made of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dichroic_filter">dichroic film</a> sandwiched between inch-thick glass; the film would cause the letters to appear in different colors when viewed from different angles.  Letters not used for the Word Art feature would be kept in the Letter Garden near the (small) parking lot for the park.</p>
<p>These features fulfill their basic function of welcoming visitors to the park and providing an attractive bit of color at the entrance and parking lot.  During the Q&amp;A period of the pre-submission meeting one person suggested improving this feature by allowing for words in other languages such as Spanish; this could also include languages with non-Latin scripts (e.g., Korean or Arabic).  I think this is an excellent suggestion (as did the presenters apparently); besides being a nice nod to the diverse populations of Howard County, it would go beyond the relative monotony of capital Latin letters to provide a more varied and attractive experience.  It would also echo other multi-language signs and design features elsewhere in the county, such as the advertisement for Johns Hopkins Medicine at the play lot in the Mall in Columbia, and the “Welcome” banners on the walls of the Miller Branch library.</p>
<p>The Word Art and Letter Garden features should be reasonably durable, although I suspect the glass of the letters might get scratched and cloudy over time.  One person at the pre-submission meeting raised a concern about people stealing the letters or moving them around (for example, to spell out obscenities); however the letters would be locked in place and should be resistant to at least casual theft.  Any letters that do get damaged or stolen could be replaced individually.</p>
<p>The cost of these features is a direct function of the number of letters deployed.  Creating words in non-Latin scripts could significantly raise the cost, since given the large number of glyphs in some such scripts (e.g., Chinese, which has thousands) the only practical approach would be to commission new characters on a custom basis as they were needed.</p>
<p>Another feature near the northern park boundary is the Maze (or Play Maze); it is shown on the overview but I don’t have a separate image for it.  This would consist of multiple mazes overlaid on top of each other: At the bottom level a maze (or multiple mazes) would be inlaid into the rubber surface forming the floor of the feature.  (This sounds reminiscent of the labyrinth paths found in some religious contexts, for example at St.  Johns Episcopal Church in Ellicott City.)  Next would come a maze formed by semi-transparent scrims.  These scrims could support art of various types, either created by park users or curated as part of a formal exhibition.  Screen doors of various styles (invoking suburban homes, presumably) would be set into the maze walls.  Above the scrims and doors would be a reflective roof.</p>
<p>This feature seems intended to provide a “play space” in the general sense: not a conventional playground or “tot lot” but something that’s more oriented to teens and adults.  <a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2013/12/my-secret-weapon.html" title="My Secret Weapon">As Julia McCready put it</a>, relating the reactions of her teenaged daughter,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>As a young teen, she often feels it would be uncool to play on a traditional playground.  And yet the energy and desire to play don’t automatically shut off at a predetermined age.  The designers of the park have conceived a play space which is so beautifully open-ended that it will encourage play, participation, and interaction from a wide range of ages.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Her daughter went on to say, “It would be a great place to shoot a music video.”<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  I think that captures pretty well what the Maze could be at its best: A stage on which people could express themselves and create things for the enjoyment of themselves, their friends, and the general public.  It wouldn’t necessarily be a beautiful place in and of itself, but beauty could be created there.</p>
<p>My major concern with the Maze is maintainability, in particular how durable the scrims forming its walls would be.  Depending on the material of which they’d be made, one can imagine them over time being torn, dirtied, and generally ripped to shreds.  The screen doors would also constitute multiple moving parts that would likely break (or be broken) over time.  Hopefully the cost of the overall feature would be low enough that periodic repairs would be relatively cheap to make.</p>
<p>This post is getting a bit long, so I’ll call it a night.  In the next post I’ll move on to other proposed features.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Corrected the spelling of Andrew Metcalf’s name.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="fe987b68-001"><a href="http://gravatar.com/mgrant0" title="mgrant@grant.org">Michael Grant</a> - 2013-12-09 13:12</h4>
<p>I posted this comment with the Washington Post article and then found your blog and thought it germane to re-post it here. I grew up in Columbia in the 70s and 80s. This park has always been a special place. I&rsquo;m both happy and sad that they are developing it. I have been to many developed parks around the world now, including Kew Gardens, parks in Australia, all over the UK and in Europe. I hope that the designers of this park also go and see some of these gardens in real life because I get the feeling that they&rsquo;re designing this from a text book. Though they say there will be a cafe in this X shaped building, there needs actually to be a few small cafes around the garden. I see why they want to build a caterpillar but it looks pretty ugly to me. I wonder if a wooden barrier with lots of foliage wouldn&rsquo;t look better. It could still water itself too. The raised platform is a terrible idea. Not only will it obscure the forest floor, but beneath it will be a hive for rats and other unwanted rodents in a public area. And how many people want to go sit on artificial grass? Just plant real grass! The bus system should have a stop within the park. Not for car traffic. Something I&rsquo;ve seen in Australia which I always thought an excellent idea are the gas BBQs. In Australia, they&rsquo;re virtually all free, but there are some models which you pop a coin in. What a great idea, how convenient. This park needs to be better integrated into the walkway system in Columbia making it easier and more desirable to walk to it and through it. Not just a place you go on special occasions. One big difference between this and gardens like Kew is that Kew is a botanical park almost like a museum and with many green houses. However, there are many parks (like the &ldquo;jardins de ville&rdquo; in France and across Europe that are not specifically botanical in nature and really work to draw people in, but they work primarily because they are in the middle of the town and not off in some less used corner between the freeway and a shopping area.</p>
<h4 id="fe987b68-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-12-09 15:45</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to comment! I don&rsquo;t have time to discuss your points right now, but may do a separate blog post addressing your and others&rsquo; comments. (Remember, I have no association whatsoever with the Inner Arbor Trust, so this is all just my opinions.)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Just for fun, here’s an example of a music video shot in a sort-of-maze with semi-transparent walls: the <a href="http://vimeo.com/75669432">video for the song “1mm”</a> from the J-pop group Perfume.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 05 Dec 2013 00:14:56 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/05/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;After reviewing &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/&#34;&gt;concerns expressed about the Inner Arbor plan&lt;/a&gt;, it’s now time to take a closer look at the proposed design.  Andrew Metcalf has done a great &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods&#34; title=&#34;Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods&#34;&gt;breakdown of the proposed design&lt;/a&gt; for Columbia Patch.  I’ll try not to duplicate his work, but rather provide some color commentary to complement his play-by-play.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, I think it’s important to properly set expectations.  Many people, including Ken Ulman in his &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-1205-20131201,0,2631482.story&#34; title=&#34;Details of downtown Columbia arts park revealed&#34;&gt;recent comments&lt;/a&gt;, have been comparing the Inner Arbor plan to iconic parks like &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Park&#34;&gt;Millenium Park&lt;/a&gt; in Chicago (part of &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grant_Park_%28Chicago%29&#34;&gt;Grant Park&lt;/a&gt; and home to Anish Kapoor’s famous &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_Gate&#34;&gt;Cloud Gate&lt;/a&gt; sculpture), New York’s &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_park&#34;&gt;Central Park&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tivoli_gardens&#34;&gt;Tivoli Gardens&lt;/a&gt; in Copenhagen.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After reviewing <a href="/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/">concerns expressed about the Inner Arbor plan</a>, it’s now time to take a closer look at the proposed design.  Andrew Metcalf has done a great <a href="http://columbia.patch.com/groups/downtown-columbia-development/p/breaking-down-the-plan-to-develop-symphony-woods" title="Breaking Down the Plan to Develop Symphony Woods">breakdown of the proposed design</a> for Columbia Patch.  I’ll try not to duplicate his work, but rather provide some color commentary to complement his play-by-play.</p>
<p>First, I think it’s important to properly set expectations.  Many people, including Ken Ulman in his <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-1205-20131201,0,2631482.story" title="Details of downtown Columbia arts park revealed">recent comments</a>, have been comparing the Inner Arbor plan to iconic parks like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Park">Millenium Park</a> in Chicago (part of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grant_Park_%28Chicago%29">Grant Park</a> and home to Anish Kapoor’s famous <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_Gate">Cloud Gate</a> sculpture), New York’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_park">Central Park</a>, and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tivoli_gardens">Tivoli Gardens</a> in Copenhagen.</p>
<p>I think this is an understandable but perhaps unfortunate exaggeration of what the Inner Arbor plan might evolve to be.  To take but one example, Millenium Park cost almost half a billion dollars to build, and was a financial stretch even for a major US city of several million people.  The Inner Arbor plan has to be funded in a county of 300,000 people with few large corporations and no resident billionaires; this phase is projected to cost in the neighborhood of $30M or so, with about a tenth of that committed thus far.  We’re not talking Millenium Park, but more something that’s in the spirit of Millenium Park but scaled in cost and ambition appropriately to Columbia and Howard County.</p>
<p>The selected design team also has to be judged in that light.  The amount of funding and the associated ambition of the design is not sufficient to attract designers and architects who are household names.  In other words, we’re not getting <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Gehry">Frank Gehry</a> back to design something for Columbia again.  But that’s OK: When Gehry designed Merriweather Post Pavilion and the Rouse building he wasn’t “Frank Gehry, star architect,” he was just a young(ish) architect with talent who was looking to get his designs built and make a name for himself.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  Unfortunately I wasn’t able to attend the meeting in which the design team was introduced, but based on a few minutes of googling it looks as if Eric Bunge and Mimi Hoang of <a href="http://www.narchitects.com/">nARCHITECTS</a> and <a href="http://theverymany.com/about/">Marc Fornes of THEVERYMANY</a> in particular fall in that category as well.  Everyone on the team seems to be doing good work elsewhere, and they appear well-qualified to take on these commissions.</p>
<p>Turning to the design itself, let’s first consider the overall master plan for what the Inner Arbor Trust is calling “Merriweather Park”&mdash;essentially a rebranding of the combination of the existing Merriweather Post Pavilion and the proposed new Symphony Woods.  Note that this phase of the plan does not address the entire area covered in the <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.com/SymphonyWoodsPark/index.cfm">original Inner Arbor conceptual plan</a>.  It focuses on the northern Symphony Woods parcel (about 16.5 acres) and its relationship to the Merriweather property, and leaves out the eastern parcel (where the conceptual plan proposed an “arts village” and a new Columbia Association headquarters) and the southern parcel (where the conceptual plan included a proposed sculpture garden).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/1-merriweather-park-master-plan-embed.jpg"
         alt="Graphic of Merriweather Park master plan"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>The Merriweather Park master plan (click for high-resolution version).  Image provided by the Inner Arbor Trust.</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>At the pre-submission meeting the primary criticisms of the overall plan were that it lacked a central focus and that the structures were not stylistically consistent.  (One person gave as an example of such consistency the design of Howard County parks such as Blandair, Centennial, etc.) <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-reaction-1205-20131203,0,3729212.story" title="Residents praise, question Inner Arbor plans for Columbia">To quote Cy Paumier</a>, these critics felt that “there is no ‘there’ there.”</p>
<p>The response from the presenters on the focus issue was two-fold.  First, that the true focus of the area was and should be Merriweather Park Pavilion itself, given its central location and its status as the place that would continue to attract the most visitors.  I happen to agree with this point, although as I noted in <a href="/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/">my last post</a> treating Merriweather as the focus implies a fairly high degree of integration between the Merriweather property and the Symphony Woods property, and achieving this level of integration is ultimately dependent on cooperation from the Howard Hughes Corporation.</p>
<p>If I recall correctly, a second response from the presenters was that the overall focus of Symphony Woods proper should be on the woods themselves, and that no single structure should pull focus away from them.  I agree with this argument as well.  I think one of the major flaws of <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-symphony-woods-0328-2-20130326,0,741084.story" title="Advocates of fountain, cafe present redesigned plan for Symphony Woods">Cy Paumier’s plan</a> was that it attempted to impose a rigid geometrical layout (almost an English formal garden look) on the Symphony Woods landscape, to the point where the woods themselves became subordinate to the design.  Whatever else what one might say about the Inner Arbor design, the meandering paths and spread-out structures (none truly massive) help ensure that it coexists with the woods rather than dominating them.</p>
<p>As for the consistency argument, I think in one sense stylistic consistency is overrated.  For example, Tivoli Gardens, which has been held out as a model for the Inner Arbor plan, is a mismash of different architectural styles, both from different periods in European history and from countries beyond.  And as with the issue of focus, the woods themselves provide a consistent backdrop throughout the park, assisted by common elements such as wooden paths.  The proposed structures within those woods and next to those paths provide what I think is a welcome variety.  To have all those structures be stylistically similar to each other would be too much of a muchness.  Finally, from a conceptual point of view the idea of metamorphosis (caterpillar to chrysalis to butterfly) does provide a common theme for the main structures, with all the structures recognizably paying homage to that theme even though their forms are very different.</p>
<p>The proposed approach also has practical advantages.  First, it means that the Inner Arbor Trust doesn’t have to put all its eggs in one basket in choosing architects and designers, entrusting the entire design primarily to one firm.  Instead it can enlist multiple smaller firms, giving them freer rein and letting them experiment a bit within the constraints of the overall site landscape and design themes.  I think this approach is far more likely to produce interesting results, and helps ensure that any bad design choices that might slip through don’t impact the entire park.</p>
<p>Having multiple smaller structures of different styles could also make it easier for the Inner Arbor Trust to find sponsors willing to fund construction: The smaller size of the structures means that each individual park feature could be funded primarily by one individual funder (much as Howard County is funding the Chrysalis amphitheatre), and the stylistic variety would mean that each such funder would have a unique feature to highlight their contribution.  Finally, since park construction would likely stretch over several years (up to one or two decades, according to Michael McCall), as each new structure is completed the public would have something new and different to experience, as opposed to just seeing more of the same.</p>
<p>That concludes my discussion of the overall plan.  In <a href="/2013/12/06/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-3/" title="The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 3">my next post</a> I’ll discuss the proposed structures and other park features.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Corrected the spelling of Andrew Metcalf’s name, corrected a reference to Frank Gehry’s age, and fixed a typo.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>It’s not unusual for architects to work many years before having any of their designs built.  Frank Gehry was in his early <del>thirties</del> forties when he designed Merriweather Post Pavilion and the Rouse building; they apparently were his <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_works_by_Frank_Gehry" title="List of works by Frank Gehry">first commissions</a> other than two private residences.  Gehry didn’t become truly famous until his sixties, after the completion of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guggenheim_Museum_Bilbao">Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao, Spain</a>.  To take another example, current celebrity architect <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaha_hadid">Zaha Hadid</a> didn’t have her first projects realized (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_works_by_Zaha_Hadid">a housing development and a fire station</a>) until her late thirties and early forties, and didn’t have a major building to her name until her early fifties, when the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosenthal_Center_for_Contemporary_Art">Rosenthal Center for Contemporary Art</a> was built in Cincinnati.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Inner Arbor plan takes shape, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 04 Dec 2013 00:15:18 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/12/04/the-inner-arbor-plan-takes-shape-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Last Tuesday night the &lt;a href=&#34;http://inartrust.org/&#34;&gt;Inner Arbor Trust&lt;/a&gt; revealed a clearer picture of what’s they’re proposing for downtown Columbia.  I attended the &lt;a href=&#34;https://www.facebook.com/events/424788714288812/&#34;&gt;pre-submission meeting&lt;/a&gt;, including the Q&amp;amp;A afterward.  See Luke Lavoie’s &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-1205-20131201,0,2631482.story&#34; title=&#34;Details of downtown Columbia arts park revealed&#34;&gt;before&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-reaction-1205-20131203,0,3729212.story&#34; title=&#34;Residents praise, question Inner Arbor plans for Columbia&#34;&gt;after&lt;/a&gt; articles in the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt; and a similar &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/maryland-group-proposes-a-methamorphosis-for-its-downtown-columbia-public-park/2013/12/01/3f9bfdec-56f4-11e3-8304-caf30787c0a9_story.html&#34; title=&#34;Maryland group proposes a metamorphosis for its downtown Columbia public park&#34;&gt;article&lt;/a&gt; in the &lt;em&gt;Washington Post&lt;/em&gt; for straightforward overviews of the design proposal and reactions to it; read on for my more opinionated take.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last Tuesday night the <a href="http://inartrust.org/">Inner Arbor Trust</a> revealed a clearer picture of what’s they’re proposing for downtown Columbia.  I attended the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/events/424788714288812/">pre-submission meeting</a>, including the Q&amp;A afterward.  See Luke Lavoie’s <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-1205-20131201,0,2631482.story" title="Details of downtown Columbia arts park revealed">before</a> and <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/columbia/ph-ho-cf-inner-arbor-reaction-1205-20131203,0,3729212.story" title="Residents praise, question Inner Arbor plans for Columbia">after</a> articles in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> and a similar <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/maryland-group-proposes-a-methamorphosis-for-its-downtown-columbia-public-park/2013/12/01/3f9bfdec-56f4-11e3-8304-caf30787c0a9_story.html" title="Maryland group proposes a metamorphosis for its downtown Columbia public park">article</a> in the <em>Washington Post</em> for straightforward overviews of the design proposal and reactions to it; read on for my more opinionated take.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/inner-arbor-overview.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/inner-arbor-overview-embed.png"
         alt="Map of the proposed Inner Arbor plan in relation to the surroundings"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Overview of the Inner Arbor Trust “Merriweather Park” plan, from the pre-submission meeting</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>First, my overall impression: I think the plan proposed is very promising overall.  It does well on several of the key criteria by which people will judge the Inner Arbor development (and the Inner Arbor Trust itself), and contains some individual elements that I think are potential standouts.  In this post I’ll discuss some of the overall issues around the proposal, and then in a follow-up post I’ll comment on the proposal itself.</p>
<p>Along the way there have been several concerns raised about the Inner Arbor plan, and pretty much all of them came up last night, many raised by the very people you’d expect to raise them.  To deal with them one by one:</p>
<p>Cy Paumier spoke about&mdash;well, I’m not exactly sure what his intended point was.  His remarks struck me as in large part a complaint that his original Symphony Woods plan (for a fountain, cafe, and walkways) had been replaced with the Inner Arbor plan, after a fair amount of time and expense had been spent on the original plan.  I don’t know Cy Paumier personally, but I understand where he’s coming from on a gut level.  I work in a sales group, and have been involved in deals where we put in a lot of work and thought we would win, only to have a competitor swoop in at the last minute and make the sale.  It sucks to be in that position, but it happens.</p>
<p>From an objective standpoint I think the Inner Arbor plan as presented Tuesday is a significant improvement on the original Symphony Woods plan, so I think the CA board made the right decision.  I think the fact that a lot of time and expense had been spent on the original plan is irrelevant; preceding with that plan would have just been an example of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunk_costs#Loss_aversion_and_the_sunk_cost_fallacy">sunk cost fallacy</a>.  I appreciate the work Cy Paumier and his associates put in on the original plan, and wish them success on the next venture they undertake.</p>
<p>Part of the advocacy behind the original Symphony Woods plan seemed less related to the plan itself and more to the idea that it was being put together by a long-time Columbian.  It’s an example of people emphasizing how things are done, sometimes to the detriment of what things get done.  That focus on process over product showed up in Alan Klein’s remarks, in which he once again complained about the alleged lack of transparency on the part of the Inner Arbor Trust (and as a bonus, put in a little dig about the Inner Arbor Trust not being an actual trust in the legal sense).  I’d be more exercised about concerns around transparency if there were any real suspicion that Michael McCall and other people associated with the Inner Arbor Trust were actually abusing their positions in some way.</p>
<p>As best I can tell, the main non-public activities of the Inner Arbor Trust have been the selection of the design team and (I presume) negotiations with potential funders.  The latter I think should clearly be exempt from public disclosure until there’s actually something to announce.  As for selection of the design team, I am an elitist when it comes to art and architecture: I think some people clearly have better taste than others, and I would rather put my trust in people with taste to do the right thing, as opposed to following a process-driven democratized approach to design.  And this way the Inner Arbor Trust is more accountable for the success of the proposed design, as opposed to being able to blame major design flaws on an overly-interfering public.</p>
<p>Alan Klein and others did make a good point about the likely inadequacy of the proposed parking associated with the plan.  However I think the response by Michael McCall was appropriate: In the final analysis the problem of parking near Symphony Woods is a shared problem, with the Howard Hughes Corporation and the Howard County government having as much if not more responsibility for solving it.  After all, except for relatively infrequent events like Wine in the Woods the major demand for parking in the vicinity of Symphony Woods will come from events at Merriweather Post Pavilion, and also from a new library if one is built.  (Even the existing Central Branch is short on parking, as I discussed in an <a href="/2013/02/23/turbocharging-downtown-columbia-with-a-new-central-branch-library/" title="Turbocharging downtown Columbia with a new Central Branch library">earlier post</a>, and constructing a new facility closer to Symphony Woods, as suggested in the <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2013/01/symphony-woods.html">Inner Arbor conceptual plan</a>, will make the problem even worse.)</p>
<p>Let’s conclude by looking at two of the biggest issues raised in connection with plans for Symphony Woods, namely what happens to the trees, and how the area will relate to Merrieather Post Pavilion.  On the tree issue I’ll note three points:</p>
<p>First, the Inner Arbor Trust is clearly aware of people’s sensitivities regarding the trees and has taken many steps to address them.  Martha Schwartz (the first of the design team presenters) emphasized up front that the site was already beautiful and that “the trees come first.”  The plan details show lots of care being taken to minimize the impact of the proposed new structures.</p>
<p>Second, Scott Rykiel (of the landscape design firm Mahan &amp; Rykiel) made the observation that the woods were not ecologically sustainable in their current form, basically consisting of just the tree themselves with mowed grass underneath.  Thus the goal has to be not just simple preservation but rather reconstituting a natural ecology in the woods, including new plantings under the trees and naturalization of streams running through the woods.</p>
<p>Finally, in response to a question from Russ Swatek regarding whether the Inner Arbor Trust would commit to a maximum limit on trees removed, Scott Rykiel noted that the current plan as presented would require the removal of only 15 trees.  Given that the original Symphony Woods plans envisioned removing significantly more trees, I found this pretty impressive&mdash;as did Russ Swatek, judging from his reaction.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that I think the Inner Arbor Trust is addressing concerns about the trees of Symphony Woods to the satisfaction of everyone except those who’d be opposing the project for other reasons in any event.</p>
<p>I’m not quite as sanguine about the other major issue, namely working with Howard Hughes Corporation to integrate the Inner Arbor plan with Merriweather Post Pavilion.  From the Inner Arbor Trust side there was a lot of talk about trying to integrate the new park with Merriweather in various ways, and in particular making it possible for park visitors to traverse the Merriweather space during times when no events were scheduled.</p>
<p>Whether that enthusiasm will be reciprocated remains to be seen.  John DeWolf was quoted in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> as finding the Inner Arbor plans “interesting” and “applaud[ing] their efforts”; he then went on to say “They are going to have to give us some due deference on Merriweather.  Right now, we don’t feel as compelled to think about it as one neighborhood.” I may be over-reacting, but I thought this comment introduced rather a sour note into the overall atmosphere of optimism over the future of Symphony Woods; at the very least I wouldn’t consider it to be a “buying signal,” to use a sales analogy.  If I were a potential major funder of the Inner Arbor Trust I’d quite possibly see the need for cooperation from the Howard Hughes Corporation as a potential risk factor threatening the success of any investment in the Inner Arbor effort.</p>
<p>DeWolf’s comment certainly contrasted with Ken Ulman’s comments in the same article that “We need to think big about Merriweather and Symphony Woods.” Howard County politicians in general have been vocally supportive of the Inner Arbor effort as its unfolded.  Perhaps one of them could have a quiet chat with the folks at the Howard Hughes Corporation and encourage them to be a little more enthusiastic in their public comments, especially given the major positive effect a successful Inner Arbor plan could have on the value of Howard Hughes developments in downtown Columbia.  It would certainly be ironic if the high-flying visions for Symphony Woods were to ultimately crash not through the efforts of anti-development Columbian activists but through the indifference of and lack of cooperation from the Howard Hughes Corporation.</p>
<p>But enough of naysaying and potential problems; in my next post I’ll look at the proposal itself.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="4467450d-003"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">Jessie Newburn</a> - 2013-12-04 15:56</h4>
<p>As always, thoughtful, informing, valuable. Rock on, Frank!</p>
<h4 id="4467450d-004"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/harry.schwarz" title="harry.schwarz@verizon.net">Harry Schwarz</a> - 2013-12-05 00:52</h4>
<p>I think this is my first comment on your blog, Frank. It&rsquo;s an honor and thank you for your keen analysis and thoughtful commentary. If Howard Hughes is going to be a hindrance to the success of Symphony Woods, can we get them out of the way? It is my understanding that they&rsquo;re supposed to turn Merriweather over to an independent body sometime in the future anyway. What&rsquo;s the possibility that we can hasten that?</p>
<h4 id="4467450d-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-12-05 04:42</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by, Harry. Unfortunately I know very little about the history or possible future of the Howard Hughes Corporation&rsquo;s involvement with Merriweather Post Pavilion. You&rsquo;d be better off asking people like Bill Woodcock or Bill Santos who were around when all of that went down.</p>
<h4 id="4467450d-001"><a href="http://hocoblogs.wordpress.com/2013/12/09/cookies-tech-and-hoco-students-rally-with-hashtags/">Cookies, tech and HoCo students rally with hashtags | HoCoBlogs in the Community</a> - 2013-12-09 23:39</h4>
<p>[…] 2. Local blogger extraordinaire, Frank Hecker, is writing a seven-part series on the Inner Arbor. His first piece is here and you can find the rest of his series on his blog. You (especially the introverts among […]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2012 income and inequality, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/09/23/howard-county-2012-income-and-inequality-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 23 Sep 2013 22:32:35 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/09/23/howard-county-2012-income-and-inequality-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/09/22/howard-county-2012-income-and-inequality-part-1/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I discussed the very high median household income in Howard County in 2012, and noted that median household income is only part of the story: It shows how a “middle income” household is doing, but doesn’t say anything about how income is distributed among the various households.  How do we measure the relative distribution of income across households, and what does this measure say about Howard County?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my <a href="/2013/09/22/howard-county-2012-income-and-inequality-part-1/">previous post</a> I discussed the very high median household income in Howard County in 2012, and noted that median household income is only part of the story: It shows how a “middle income” household is doing, but doesn’t say anything about how income is distributed among the various households.  How do we measure the relative distribution of income across households, and what does this measure say about Howard County?</p>
<p>Let’s go back to the tables I included in my previous post, repeated here for convenience.  First, here’s Howard County vs. nearby counties and other jurisdictions:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Rank</th>
          <th>County</th>
          <th>Median Household Income</th>
          <th>Gini Coefficient</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>Loudoun County VA</td>
          <td>$117,876</td>
          <td>0.3670</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2</td>
          <td>Howard County MD</td>
          <td>$108,844</td>
          <td>0.3909</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>Fairfax County VA</td>
          <td>$107,096</td>
          <td>0.4229</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>5</td>
          <td>Arlington County VA</td>
          <td>$100,474</td>
          <td>0.4294</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>11</td>
          <td>Montgomery County MD</td>
          <td>$94,965</td>
          <td>0.4504</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>12</td>
          <td>Prince William County VA</td>
          <td>$93,744</td>
          <td>0.3710</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>15</td>
          <td>Charles County MD</td>
          <td>$90,880</td>
          <td>0.3937</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>18</td>
          <td>Anne Arundel County MD</td>
          <td>$89,179</td>
          <td>0.4119</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>19</td>
          <td>Calvert County MD</td>
          <td>$87,449</td>
          <td>0.4090</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>21</td>
          <td>St Marys County MD</td>
          <td>$86,358</td>
          <td>0.3779</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>38</td>
          <td>Alexandria city VA</td>
          <td>$81,160</td>
          <td>0.4404</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>39</td>
          <td>Frederick County MD</td>
          <td>$80,765</td>
          <td>0.3827</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>42</td>
          <td>Carroll County MD</td>
          <td>$80,028</td>
          <td>0.3858</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>90</td>
          <td>Prince Georges County MD</td>
          <td>$69,879</td>
          <td>0.3951</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>116</td>
          <td>District of Columbia</td>
          <td>$66,583</td>
          <td>0.5343</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>148</td>
          <td>Baltimore County MD</td>
          <td>$62,444</td>
          <td>0.4396</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>713</td>
          <td>Baltimore city MD</td>
          <td>$39,241</td>
          <td>0.5008</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>and then Maryland vs. other high-income states and the United States as a whole:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Rank</th>
          <th>County</th>
          <th>Median Household Income</th>
          <th>Gini Coefficient</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>Maryland</td>
          <td>$71,122</td>
          <td>0.4473</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2</td>
          <td>New Jersey</td>
          <td>$69,667</td>
          <td>0.4718</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>Alaska</td>
          <td>$67,712</td>
          <td>0.4232</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>4</td>
          <td>Connecticut</td>
          <td>$67,276</td>
          <td>0.4915</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>5</td>
          <td>District of Columbia</td>
          <td>$66,583</td>
          <td>0.5343</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>6</td>
          <td>Hawaii</td>
          <td>$66,259</td>
          <td>0.4257</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>7</td>
          <td>Massachusetts</td>
          <td>$65,339</td>
          <td>0.4813</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>8</td>
          <td>New Hampshire</td>
          <td>$63,280</td>
          <td>0.4298</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>9</td>
          <td>Virginia</td>
          <td>$61,741</td>
          <td>0.4661</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>10</td>
          <td>Minnesota</td>
          <td>$58,906</td>
          <td>0.4441</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>United States</td>
          <td>$51,371</td>
          <td>0.4757</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>Note the third column of the above tables, the Gini coefficient.  The Gini coefficient (or Gini index, as the Census Bureau refers to it) measures the distribution of income, as opposed to the level of income.  Its calculation is a bit more complicated than that for median household income; rather than discuss it here I’ll just refer you to <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/">my previous explanation</a>.</p>
<p>For present purposes you just need to know that the Gini index has values between 0 and 1 (or 0% and 100%, depending on the source), that a value of 0 corresponds to a completely equal distribution of income (all households’ income is the same) and a value of 1 (or 100%) corresponds to a completely unequal distribution of income (one household receives all income, all other households have none).  In practice almost all societies have Gini index values somewhere between 0.30 and 0.60.  Also note that the Gini coefficient can be computed based on before-tax income or after-tax income; the Census Bureau figures are computed using before-tax income.</p>
<p>Recall again that the Gini index measures distribution of income, <em>not</em> the level of income.  So, for example, for 2012 Howard County had a Gini index of 0.3909.  Since this was below the overall US value of 0.4757, distribution of income in Howard County was somewhat more equal than in the US as a whole.  Catoosa County in Georgia had a Gini index of 0.3904, almost identical to that of Howard County, but its median household income was only $42,251, almost as low as that of Baltimore city.  Howard County is a place where everyone is (relatively) equally rich, Catoosa County is a place where everyone is (relatively) equally poor.</p>
<p>This point also applies to places of relative income inequality as measured by the Gini index: For example, Fairfield County in Connecticut (mentioned in the previous post) has one of the highest Gini index values in the United States at 0.5459, along with a median household income of $79,841 (ranked 43 in the United States), while Richmond, Virginia, has almost the same Gini index (0.5347) but very low household income ($38,926, less than Baltimore City).  Fairfield County is rich and unequal, Richmond poor and unequal.</p>
<p>Why is income inequality lower in Howard County&mdash;not to mention Loudoun County, which ranked 5th in the US in 2012 in terms of income equality? It’s simply that the economies in both counties are heavily driven by Federal spending, with many people in the counties working for either the government or a government contractor.  At the low end government jobs pay better than equivalent private sector jobs, while at the high end they pay worse.</p>
<p>This is true of contractor jobs as well: For example, a skilled programmer will be paid well if they work for a government contract, especially if they have a security clearance, but not as well as if they worked for an investment bank or hedge fund.  It’s true also of entrepreneurs: Most people can name several tech billionaires (for example, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page and Sergey Brin) but would be hard-pressed to name any billionaires who made their fortunes through government contracting.  (Ross Perot is the only one I can think of at the moment.)</p>
<p>The net effect is that the spread of incomes in Howard, Loudoun, and other suburban Maryland and Virginia counties is compressed relative to other places: fewer really poor people, and fewer really rich people, but lots of people making good incomes.</p>
<p>So is relative income equality only a function of a government-dominated economy? Not necessarily; for example, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality#Gini_coefficient.2C_before_taxes_and_transfers">per Wikipedia</a> Switzerland, a country in the top 5 of the <a href="http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking">Heritage Foundation Economic Freedom Index</a>, has a Gini coefficient of 0.409, just a tad above Howard County’s, while South Korea, a country with a thriving export economy, has a Gini coefficient of 0.344, below Loudoun County’s and identical to that of Sherburne County, Minnesota, the US county with the least income inequality in 2012.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  (Again, note that these figures, like the US figures, are pre-tax; many countries have after-tax Gini coefficients below 0.3 due to very progressive tax structures and extensive social insurance programs.)</p>
<p>The conclusion, I think, is that income inequality is not simply driven by pure market forces but reflects cultural attitudes as well: social norms about what constitutes an adequate minimum wage (or indeed whether there should be a minimum wage at all), subjective judgements about how much CEOs and other senior managers contribute to a firm’s productivity compared to the typical employee, political decisions about how much government fiscal, monetary, and other policies should promote the interests of those who hold stock and other capital assets vs. those who do not, and so on.  In 1993 the entire United States had a Gini coefficient of 0.389, comparable to that of Howard County today.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  Thus in one sense Howard County is not an outlier that doesn’t reflect the rest of America; it just reflects the America of twenty years ago rather than that of today.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Added Charles County, Calvert County, and St Marys County.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Amusingly, Sherburne County is in rural central Minnesota near the presumed location of the fictional Lake Wobegon, where “all the children are above average.”&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>From the Census Bureau report P60-204, <em><a href="http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/publications/p60204/index.html">The Changing Shape of the Nation’s Income Distribution</a></em>, Table 1.  Note that comparisons prior to 1993 are problematic because the Census Bureau computed the Gini coefficient somewhat differently.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County 2012 income and inequality, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/09/22/howard-county-2012-income-and-inequality-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 22 Sep 2013 21:54:46 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/09/22/howard-county-2012-income-and-inequality-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;When I started blogging about Howard County issues just over five years ago it was in response to a post by Dennis Lane quoting Alan Klein on the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2008/09/09/the-wealthy-few-in-howard-county/&#34;&gt;“wealthy few” in Howard County&lt;/a&gt;.  I followed that up with a two-part series on income inequality in Howard County (&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;), using US Census data.  It’s therefore appropriate that I post today on the latest Census data on Howard County income figures for 2012, which were released last Thursday.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When I started blogging about Howard County issues just over five years ago it was in response to a post by Dennis Lane quoting Alan Klein on the <a href="/2008/09/09/the-wealthy-few-in-howard-county/">“wealthy few” in Howard County</a>.  I followed that up with a two-part series on income inequality in Howard County (<a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/">part 2</a>), using US Census data.  It’s therefore appropriate that I post today on the latest Census data on Howard County income figures for 2012, which were released last Thursday.</p>
<p>The top-line news (which you’ll no doubt read soon enough in mainstream news outlets) is that we’re number 2: at $108,844 Howard County had the second-highest median household income of any US county in 2012, topped only by Loudoun County, Virginia, at $117,876. (Incidentally, what is it with Howard County always coming in second? This time it was Loudoun County, last time it was Eden Prairie MN. When do we get to be first?)</p>
<p>This is a major jump up from 2011, in which Howard County was in fifth place (at $98,953).  Loudoun County was also first in 2011 at $119,134, but unlike Howard its median household income has decreased since then.  Note that you can’t directly compare the 2011 and 2012 figures, because they’re not adjusted for inflation, but the relative rankings would still be the same.</p>
<p>So much for the headlines; now for the rest of the story.</p>
<p>Here’s a comparison of how Howard County fared in 2012 relative to its neighboring counties in Maryland, the counties of Northern Virginia, and the two closest major cities (I’ll come back to the Gini coefficient in the fourth column later):</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Rank</th>
          <th>County</th>
          <th>Median Household Income</th>
          <th>Gini Coefficient</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>Loudoun County VA</td>
          <td>$117,876</td>
          <td>0.3670</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2</td>
          <td>Howard County MD</td>
          <td>$108,844</td>
          <td>0.3909</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>Fairfax County VA</td>
          <td>$107,096</td>
          <td>0.4229</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>5</td>
          <td>Arlington County VA</td>
          <td>$100,474</td>
          <td>0.4294</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>11</td>
          <td>Montgomery County MD</td>
          <td>$94,965</td>
          <td>0.4504</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>12</td>
          <td>Prince William County VA</td>
          <td>$93,744</td>
          <td>0.3710</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>15</td>
          <td>Charles County MD</td>
          <td>$90,880</td>
          <td>0.3937</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>18</td>
          <td>Anne Arundel County MD</td>
          <td>$89,179</td>
          <td>0.4119</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>19</td>
          <td>Calvert County MD</td>
          <td>$87,449</td>
          <td>0.4090</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>21</td>
          <td>St Marys County MD</td>
          <td>$86,358</td>
          <td>0.3779</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>38</td>
          <td>Alexandria city VA</td>
          <td>$81,160</td>
          <td>0.4404</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>39</td>
          <td>Frederick County MD</td>
          <td>$80,765</td>
          <td>0.3827</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>42</td>
          <td>Carroll County MD</td>
          <td>$80,028</td>
          <td>0.3858</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>90</td>
          <td>Prince Georges County MD</td>
          <td>$69,879</td>
          <td>0.3951</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>116</td>
          <td>District of Columbia</td>
          <td>$66,583</td>
          <td>0.5343</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>148</td>
          <td>Baltimore County MD</td>
          <td>$62,444</td>
          <td>0.4396</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>713</td>
          <td>Baltimore city MD</td>
          <td>$39,241</td>
          <td>0.5008</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>Here’s the top ten states for 2012, plus the figures for the US as a whole:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Rank</th>
          <th>County</th>
          <th>Median Household Income</th>
          <th>Gini Coefficient</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>Maryland</td>
          <td>$71,122</td>
          <td>0.4473</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2</td>
          <td>New Jersey</td>
          <td>$69,667</td>
          <td>0.4718</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>Alaska</td>
          <td>$67,712</td>
          <td>0.4232</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>4</td>
          <td>Connecticut</td>
          <td>$67,276</td>
          <td>0.4915</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>5</td>
          <td>District of Columbia</td>
          <td>$66,583</td>
          <td>0.5343</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>6</td>
          <td>Hawaii</td>
          <td>$66,259</td>
          <td>0.4257</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>7</td>
          <td>Massachusetts</td>
          <td>$65,339</td>
          <td>0.4813</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>8</td>
          <td>New Hampshire</td>
          <td>$63,280</td>
          <td>0.4298</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>9</td>
          <td>Virginia</td>
          <td>$61,741</td>
          <td>0.4661</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>10</td>
          <td>Minnesota</td>
          <td>$58,906</td>
          <td>0.4441</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td></td>
          <td>United States</td>
          <td>$51,371</td>
          <td>0.4757</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>Now let’s talk about what these numbers mean.  First, where do they come from, and how accurate are they? The figures above are from the Census Bureau’s <a href="http://www.census.gov/acs/www/">American Community Survey</a> (ACS), and are taken from tables B19013, “Median household income in the past 12 months (in 2012 inflation-adjusted dollars),” and B19083, “Gini index of income inequality,” respectively of the <a href="http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/searchresults.xhtml?refresh=t">ACS 2012 1-year estimates</a>.  (“Gini index” is an alternate term for “Gini coefficient.”  I’m using the latter term for consistency with my earlier posts.)</p>
<p>These are statistical estimates based on a limited sample, and have a substantial margin of error (plus or minus $2,972 in the case of the Howard County estimate).  Thus the more accurate statement would be that the Howard County median household income for 2012 was somewhere in the range of $105,000&ndash;113,000, pretty much the same as Fairfax County.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>The next point is that we need to distinguish between income and wealth: income is what enables you to pay your mortgage, while wealth is what enables you to not need a mortgage in the first place. Headlines to the effect that Howard County is the second-wealthiest county in the US are misleading; it may be that there are other counties in the US where median household wealth (as opposed to income) is higher.  For example, places like Fairfield County, Connecticut, home of hedge fund billionaires, almost surely have higher average household wealth than Howard County, and their median household wealth may be higher as well.</p>
<p>Other points: Household income is typically used as a measure instead of per capita income because households are the basic economic unit in most cases, and particularly with respect to major purchases like housing.  All other things being equal, places where there are lots of two-earner families will have higher median household income than places where there are a lot of singles or one-earner families.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>The median household income is that income such that half of all households make more and half of all households make less.  This is a better measure than average household income because average income can be misleadingly skewed upward by the presence of a few extremely high-income households: If a billionaire moved onto your street the average income of you and your neighbors would skyrocket, but the income of the typical neighbor (one who’s in the middle of the list of all neighbors ranked by income) would not be affected.  The median household income is thus best thought of as a measure of what it means to be “middle class” in a particular locality, at least in terms of income.</p>
<p>This is an important point and worth expanding on, especially in looking the major jump in Howard County median household income from 2011 to 2012.  There are at multiple ways in which median household income could grow:</p>
<p>Households across the board could include more people earning income, due to a higher rate of people living together instead of alone and/or to non-working spouses entering the labor force.  Households across the board could also have higher income due to wage increases or other boosts to income (for example, selling stock that had appreciated).</p>
<p>Alternatively, the relative mix of households might change.  For example, it might be that the high cost of living drives lower-income families (those below the current median household income) to move out of a particular area, while at the same time the perceived quality of life (schools, parks, libraries, etc.) influences higher-income families (those above the current median household income) to move into the area.</p>
<p>Any or all of these effects could be behind the jump in Howard County median household income from 2011 to 2012; teasing out the real story would require a more in-depth analysis the Census data (one I’m not prepared to take on at this time).</p>
<p>A final point about median household income: It gives a reasonably good picture of how a “middle income” household is doing, but it doesn’t tell us anything about how income is distributed among the various households.  For example, suppose that the bottom 10% or 20% of households (by income) had their incomes cut in half, while the top 10% or 20% of households had their incomes doubled.  This would not change the median household income at all, since half of all households would still be below the previous median value, and half still above.</p>
<p>So how do we measure the relative distribution of income across households, and how does Howard County stand on this measure? That’s the topic of <a href="/2013/09/23/howard-county-2012-income-and-inequality-part-2/">my next post</a>.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Added Charles County, Calvert County, and St Marys County to the list.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="ee0a0c1e-002">Chris Jackman (cjackman@hotmail.com) - 2013-09-23 12:36</h4>
<p>You left Calvert County, MD ($87,449) off your list.</p>
<h4 id="ee0a0c1e-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-09-24 12:36</h4>
<p>You&rsquo;re right, I left Calvert County off the list; in my defense, I was focusing on the counties immediately neighboring Howard, and forgot about Calvert, Charles and St Marys County. Incidentally, at $87,449 Calvert County is 19th on the list of highest-income counties; Charles County is 15th at $90,880 and St Marys is 21st at $86,358. (Their Gini coefficients are 0.409, 0.3937, and 0.3779 respectively.)</p>
<h4 id="ee0a0c1e-004">Chris Jackman (cjackman@hotmail.com) - 2013-09-24 12:43</h4>
<p>I just thought that you may want to include them since you posted several VA counties that are also in the Washington-Baltimore CSA.</p>
<h4 id="ee0a0c1e-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-09-25 03:15</h4>
<p>You&rsquo;re right. I updated the post to include them.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The ACS 3-year and 5-year estimates have a smaller margin of error, because they reflect a larger total sample size.  For example, in the 2011 5-year estimate the median household income for Howard County was $105,692 with a margin of error of only plus or minus $1,761.  (The Census Bureau hasn’t yet released 3-year or 5-year figures for 2012.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>To reduce potential confusion: The Census Bureau also releases figures for median family income; these figures do not count people living alone or unrelated roommates, because they are not considered a “family” in this context.  However such people are counted as “households.”&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Anime worth watching: Silver Spoon and school on the farm</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/09/21/anime-worth-watching-silver-spoon/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 21 Sep 2013 19:18:14 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/09/21/anime-worth-watching-silver-spoon/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Continuing my intermittent series of recommendation posts, today we’ll put aside more intellectual topics and focus on entertainment, albeit with a bit of a serious side.  A few weeks ago I had the pleasure of taking a young fan to &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.otakon.com/&#34;&gt;Otakon&lt;/a&gt; at the Baltimore Convention Center.  Like Comic-Con in San Diego, Otakon features &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DP-iC1dhfM&#34;&gt;lots of people dressing up in unusual costumes&lt;/a&gt; (the technical term is “cosplay”); however unlike Comic-Con, which at this point is dominated by the promotion of high-profile Hollywood blockbusters, Otakon and its sister conventions (including &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.chs-otakufest.com/&#34;&gt;CHS Otaku Fest&lt;/a&gt;, right here at Centennial High School in Ellicott City) focus on the less well-known parallel world of &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anime&#34;&gt;anime&lt;/a&gt; (Japanese animated movies and TV series) and &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manga&#34;&gt;manga&lt;/a&gt; (Japanese comics).&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Continuing my intermittent series of recommendation posts, today we’ll put aside more intellectual topics and focus on entertainment, albeit with a bit of a serious side.  A few weeks ago I had the pleasure of taking a young fan to <a href="http://www.otakon.com/">Otakon</a> at the Baltimore Convention Center.  Like Comic-Con in San Diego, Otakon features <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DP-iC1dhfM">lots of people dressing up in unusual costumes</a> (the technical term is “cosplay”); however unlike Comic-Con, which at this point is dominated by the promotion of high-profile Hollywood blockbusters, Otakon and its sister conventions (including <a href="http://www.chs-otakufest.com/">CHS Otaku Fest</a>, right here at Centennial High School in Ellicott City) focus on the less well-known parallel world of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anime">anime</a> (Japanese animated movies and TV series) and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manga">manga</a> (Japanese comics).<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>American comics, and the movies adapted from them, focus primarily on superheroes.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  Japanese manga have a somewhat wider range of subjects, and so do the anime that they spawn.  I’ve recently started watching more anime, and since I’m not a pre-teen or teenager my interests are not in the kid-oriented fantasy or science fiction anime that typically show up on American TV (<em>Pokemon</em>, <em>Dragonball Z</em>, <em>Sailor Moon</em>, and so on).  Much of what I watch is oriented more for Japanese domestic consumption than for export; it can be quite interesting but not necessarily a great choice for those new to anime, especially if you’re also allergic to the typical anime style of art (most notably the “<a href="http://anime.stackexchange.com/questions/4748/why-do-anime-manga-characters-have-big-eyes">big eyes</a>” look).  I also wanted to recommend something other than the movies of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayao_Miyazaki">Hiyao Miyazaki</a>; Miyazaki has made some great movies (<em>My Neighbor Totoro</em>, <em>Kiki’s Delivery Service</em>, <em>Spirited Away</em>, and so on), but looking only at his work would be like watching only movies from Pixar: rewarding but unnecessarily limiting.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/silver_spoon_promo_image.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/silver_spoon_promo_image-embed.jpg"
         alt="Silver Spoon: Yugo Hachiken and his classmates"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Yugo Hachiken and his classmates</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Hence my first recommendation: the current TV series <em><a href="http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/encyclopedia/anime.php?id=15017">Silver Spoon</a></em> (in Japanese <em>Gin no Saji</em>, or 銀の匙 to be pendatic).  <em>Silver Spoon</em> follows Yugo Hachiken, a junior high school student who for various reasons (more fully revealed over the course of the series) decides to drop out of the exam-driven Japanese academic rat race and leave his home in the city to enroll in Ōezo Agricultural High School, a boarding school with a farming “voc-tech” program far out in the countryside.</p>
<p>Young Yugo, or “Hachiken-kun”<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup> as everyone calls him, has a series of “fish out of water” adventures as he encounters the realities of farm work and life, in contrast to his classmates who’ve been born to it and consider it their destiny.  <em>Silver Spoon</em> is not action-packed and plot-driven, but more of what’s referred to as a “slice of life” series&mdash;a surprisingly popular genre of anime, and one I very much enjoy.</p>
<p>I think <em>Silver Spoon</em> is worth recommending for lots of reasons, including the fact that it uses a relatively realistic style of animation, has a lot of humorous touches, and features good character development, not just of Hachiken-kun but of his classmates as well.  But the primary attraction of the series is as a fascinating and thought-provoking window into the world of agriculture.  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hiromu_Arakawa">Hiromu Arakawa</a>, the author of the manga on which the anime is based, grew up on her family’s dairy farm in Hokkaido (the northernmost island of Japan, roughly equivalent to Ireland in size, population, and rural character), and thus knows whereof she writes and draws.  The series is perhaps best characterized as an ongoing meditation on the sometimes harsh realities of how food ends up in our groceries and on our tables, and on the lives of those who deal with those realities every day.</p>
<p>I’ve written previously of the historical tensions between the residents of Columbia and the rural inhabitants of western Howard County.  Few of us in suburbia are likely to uproot ourselves to live and work on a farm in western Howard; the closest we might get is a visit to the <a href="http://howardcountyfair.org/">Howard County Fair</a> in which we venture beyond the rides to the livestock sheds, or a trip with the kids to the petting zoo at <a href="http://www.clarklandfarm.com/">Clark’s Elioak Farm</a>.  In some ways watching an animated TV series in a foreign setting and a foreign language might be a much better way to gain a deeper understanding of the lives and concerns of our fellow Howard Countians just a few miles to the west.</p>
<p>A final note on logistics: Thanks to the miracle of the Internet you can watch <em>Silver Spoon</em> for free on either <a href="http://www.hulu.com/silver-spoon">Hulu</a> or <a href="http://www.crunchyroll.com/silver-spoon">Crunchyroll</a> (a streaming service dedicated to anime).  The series is subtitled, not dubbed in English, but if you watch any foreign films at all you should be able to deal with that.  Hulu Plus subscribers can watch the series ad-free in high definition, as can <a href="https://www.crunchyroll.com/freetrial/anime/">Crunchyroll Premium</a> subscribers; premium subscribers can also watch episodes almost immediately after they air in Japan.</p>
<p>Since this is my first anime recommendation post (and hopefully not my last), I’ll kick things off with a special offer: I’ll provide a Crunchyroll guest pass to the first person to comment on this post, good for 48 hours of ad-free HD viewing of any show on the site, so that you can try out <em>Silver Spoon</em> for yourself.  If you’re a binge watcher of TV you can see the entire first season of the series; the last episode just aired and is not yet available on the free streaming services.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="6c7e7192-001">Chris Bachmann (chris@chrisbachmann.com) - 2013-09-22 14:28</h4>
<p>I&rsquo;ve had this in my crunchyroll queue for a while now, but you finally got me to start watching. So far so good. Speaking of food manga/anime. There&rsquo;s also Toriko which is a typical Shonen Jump title with a lot of battles, but it&rsquo;s set in a gourmet world. I started off with the manga and really liked how he got the fans involved with naming the food stuffs. Although lately it has gotten rather Dragonballesque with the obscene power levels so quickly into the series when the end is not in sight.</p>
<h4 id="6c7e7192-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-09-22 15:23</h4>
<p>Chris, thanks for stopping by! Food battles? Sounds rather Iron Chef-esque to me, but I&rsquo;ll check it out. (Right now I&rsquo;m going through the top-50 list on Anime News Network, which will keep me busy for a while.) The only competition-oriented anime I&rsquo;ve gotten into thus far is Chihayafuru, which is somewhat over the top compared to what I suspect is the reality of the game it&rsquo;s based on, but not so much as to totally strain credulity.</p>
<h4 id="6c7e7192-002">chrisbachmann (chris@chrisbachmann.com) - 2013-09-22 20:20</h4>
<p>Toriko is totally over the top, but still rather fun. I&rsquo;ve been reading it in Weekly Shonen Jump ($26 a year for the digital version with 48 issues a year) and it is in a serious part, but it&rsquo;ll get back to the more care free story lines soon enough. Also, until the end of the month, each volume of the manga is $5 per volume through the vizmanga.com site and apps, which has been a good way to spend the commute time on the bus every day. At the end of the month, it&rsquo;ll be $7 per volume. Fork Puuuuuunch!!!</p>
<h4 id="6c7e7192-004">aaron gant (aka Gods Otaku) (amgant@bsu.edu) - 2013-10-16 15:42</h4>
<p>thanks for the recommendation. i had herd about this anime when it came out but never gave it a second thought. looking at your recommendation hear ill be checking it out. also if you read manga check out Kitchen Princes. as of now i dont think they have made it an anime. however it is has a good story with a typical love triangle. however every meal prepared in the manga has the recipe in the back of it. there are some really creative things done in this manga such as hollowing out a loaf of bread and making sandwiches with what you took out. then putting them back into the hollowed bread like a box. (there are even full meals shown). it is fun and yes makes you cry a bit. in truth i loved everybit of it.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Incidentally, the Japanese pronunciations of “anime” and “manga” are approximately “ah-nee-may” and “mahn-gah” respectively, with all syllables equally stressed.  Americans of course are free to pronounce them any way they want, so you’ll also hear “a-ni-may” and “mayn-ga” with the stress on the first syllable.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>There are American comics not about superheroes, for example the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Walking_Dead_%28comic_book%29">comic series</a> on which the TV show <em>The Walking Dead</em> is based.  There are also alternative comics or “art comics” (or “comix”), the comics equivalent of literary novels, arthouse films, and indie rock; the recently-concluded <a href="http://www.spxpo.com/">Small Press Expo</a> (SPX) event held annually in North Bethesda is a great place to get introduced to them.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>“-kun” is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_honorifics">Japanese honorific</a> typically used for young men, compared to the more well-known “-san” used between adults of equal status.  Watching lots of anime is a good way to pick up on these and other fine points of Japanese culture.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Cafes and bakeries in Ellicott City, going and coming</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/08/18/cafes-and-bakeries-in-ellicott-city-going-and-coming/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 18 Aug 2013 01:37:43 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/08/18/cafes-and-bakeries-in-ellicott-city-going-and-coming/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;To get back in the blogging habit, a quick note on what’s going on food-wise in my part of Howard County, namely Route 40 in Ellicott City and the historic downtown:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The exit: Cooks N’ Cakes closed its shop next to Starbucks on Route 40 just over a month ago.  The &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.cooksncakes.com/&#34;&gt;web site&lt;/a&gt; has an “open letter” noting that the owner “has been presented with some opportunities she feels she can NOT pass up.”  (The web site also still lists hours as if the shop is open, which I think is odd.)  Their &lt;a href=&#34;https://www.facebook.com/cooksncakes&#34;&gt;Facebook page&lt;/a&gt; goes on to note that they’re “talking with a local yogurt shop interested in carrying Cooks N Cakes cupcakes.”  I didn’t go that often (eating cupcakes is not something I should make a daily or even weekly habit), but it was nice to have a shop nearby (even if I agreed with many reviewers that their cupcake batter was a tad dry).  I’ll have to try one of the other cupcake shops in Howard County.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To get back in the blogging habit, a quick note on what’s going on food-wise in my part of Howard County, namely Route 40 in Ellicott City and the historic downtown:</p>
<p>The exit: Cooks N’ Cakes closed its shop next to Starbucks on Route 40 just over a month ago.  The <a href="http://www.cooksncakes.com/">web site</a> has an “open letter” noting that the owner “has been presented with some opportunities she feels she can NOT pass up.”  (The web site also still lists hours as if the shop is open, which I think is odd.)  Their <a href="https://www.facebook.com/cooksncakes">Facebook page</a> goes on to note that they’re “talking with a local yogurt shop interested in carrying Cooks N Cakes cupcakes.”  I didn’t go that often (eating cupcakes is not something I should make a daily or even weekly habit), but it was nice to have a shop nearby (even if I agreed with many reviewers that their cupcake batter was a tad dry).  I’ll have to try one of the other cupcake shops in Howard County.</p>
<p>The entrance: The <a href="http://www.shillabakeryusa.com/locations/ellicott-city/">Ellicott City location of Shilla Bakery</a> (it’s a local DC-area chain) opened a couple of weeks ago on Route 40 (eastbound side, in the same strip center as Jason’s Wine and Spirits and Kim Bob Na Ra).  It’s an Asian bakery, similar to (and thus a competitor of) Bon Appetit further west on Route 40 past the CVS, with pastries both Asian and European, coffee, tea, bingsoo, and so on.  I’ve been there once, enjoyed all the free samples (they have samples of pretty much everything), and got a fair amount of stuff, all of it tasty.  I’ll no doubt be back, but again regular pastry eating is not something I can indulge in.</p>
<p>The expansion: The Matcha Time gift shop in downtown Ellicott City (right behind La Palapa Mexican Restaurant next to parking lot D) recently added a room to become <a href="https://www.facebook.com/MatchaTimeCafe">Matcha Time Cafe</a>.  I really like this place, and stop by at least every couple of weeks.  It’s not really a full-fledged restaurant; it’s more a place to relax for a few minutes with a pot of hot tea and some cucumber rolls or other sushi or snacks, before or after shopping in downtown Ellicott City.  Extra bonus: If you’re at all interested in Japanese culture the adjacent gift shop has a great selection of items; in particular if you have a young daughter she’ll be able to amass a collection of Japanese school items.  Extra extra bonus: They have two reserved parking spaces, which can be a godsend on busy downtown weekends.</p>
<p>The anticipation: I’ve been driving by the promised Bean and Burgundy Kitchen for a while; it’s in the same strip shopping center as Dunkin Donuts, on eastbound Route 40 near Greenway Drive.  The big news is that their official sign is now up, and the name of the establishment has been changed to Bean and Burgundy Bread.  They also now have a <a href="https://www.facebook.com/beanandburgundy">Facebook page</a> up, promising an opening in September (delayed from the previously rumored late August).  I check on its progress once a week or so; when I went by a day ago it was still pretty raw inside in terms of construction going on.  I think it will be at least 3-4 weeks before they open.  I definitely plan to try this place out, since it supposedly will include a wine bar and it’s very convenient for me.  (I could easily walk there if I wanted to brave Route 40 traffic&mdash;which I don’t, I hasten to add.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 3</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 25 Jun 2013 15:16:29 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;We conclude our tour of campaign signs from the 2010 Howard County elections by looking at some of my favorites.  (For more signs see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/frank-aquino-2010.jpg&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/frank-aquino-2010-embed.jpg&#34;
         alt=&#34;Frank Aquino for Board of Education (2010)&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;Frank Aquino for Board of Education (2010)&lt;/p&gt;
        &lt;/figcaption&gt;
&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I like this mainly for the obvious but nice “A+” design element.  The slogan is too small to read, and the domain name could be ditched in favor of increasing the size of “Board of Education.”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We conclude our tour of campaign signs from the 2010 Howard County elections by looking at some of my favorites.  (For more signs see <a href="/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/">part 2</a>.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/frank-aquino-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/frank-aquino-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Frank Aquino for Board of Education (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Frank Aquino for Board of Education (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I like this mainly for the obvious but nice “A+” design element.  The slogan is too small to read, and the domain name could be ditched in favor of increasing the size of “Board of Education.”</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/bates-miller-2010-small.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bates-miller-2010-small-embed.jpg"
         alt="Gail Bates and Warren Miller for Delegate (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Gail Bates and Warren Miller for Delegate (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>As I previously noted, red, white, and blue colors on a campaign sign are usually associated with Republicans, although for some reason Gail Bates and Warren Miller are the only local GOP candidates whose signs I can recall using them.  (Eric Wargotz’s sign also used red, white, and blue, though in a very understated way.)  Note the attempt to link together “Bates” and “Miller” via the design.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/ken-ulman-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/ken-ulman-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Ken Ulman for County Executive (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Ken Ulman for County Executive (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Professional, competent, albeit a bit on the bland side.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/bates-miller-2010-large.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bates-miller-2010-large-embed.jpg"
         alt="Gail Bates and Warren Miller for Delegate (2010) (large)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Gail Bates and Warren Miller for Delegate (2010) (large)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Again the colors are a cliché, but here done to really excellent effect.  Note that this sign is even more effective in linking Gail Bates and Warren Miller into a single entity “BatesMiller” in the minds of voters.  Also note that the small banner works better here as a single design element, as opposed to being duplicated as it was in the sign above.  This is such a great sign that it’s a shame it wasn’t displayed more as a standalone sign; most if not all of the times I saw it it was paired with signs for other GOP candidates immediately above it and/or below it.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/byron-macfarlane-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/byron-macfarlane-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Byron Macfarlane for Register of Wills (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Byron Macfarlane for Register of Wills (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Understatedly elegant, soberly professional, but with a nice yellow design element to rescue it from stuffiness&mdash;a sign you’d feel good entrusting your estate to.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/bob-ballinger-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/bob-ballinger-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Bob Ballinger for Board of Education (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Bob Ballinger for Board of Education (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>This design uses an informal typeface on a green background to nicely evoke chalk on a classroom blackboard and thus the theme of education, without being overly literal or using common clichés (e.g., apples).</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/courtney-watson-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/courtney-watson-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Courtney Watson for County Council (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Courtney Watson for County Council (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Large text that conveys only the basic information needed, nice contrasting typefaces (with the top one lending an air of liveliness to the sign), a unique choice of complementary colors (including a subtle gradient on the bottom half), and good balance in the design between the top half, the bottom half, and the white border.  But what really takes this design from good to great is the stand of wheat to the right: it adds visual interest, ties back to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Seal_of_Howard_County,_Maryland.png">official Howard County seal</a>, and evokes the rural past of the country in a way calculated to appeal both to conservative older residents and more liberal newcomers concerned about environmental issues.  This one got my vote for the best Howard County campaign sign of 2010.</p>
<p>Who will emerge the victors in the race for best Howard County campaign signs of 2014?  If I have time (and remember to take pictures) I’ll be back again next year to tell you.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="eeb803dd-001">hotboy2545 (taylor2545@gmail.com) - 2013-07-08 05:20</h4>
<p>Looks like the campaign was pretty nice. Did you vote for anyone that won? [edited to remove spam link]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 24 Jun 2013 18:42:03 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Continue down memory lane with me as we look back at the campaign signs for Howard County local elections in 2010.  (For more signs see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt;, and note that I didn’t make a complete record of all signs.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;figure&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/frank-mirabile-2010.jpg&#34;&gt;
    &lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/frank-mirabile-2010-embed.jpg&#34;
         alt=&#34;Frank Mirabile for US Congress (2010)&#34;/&gt; &lt;/a&gt;&lt;figcaption&gt;
            &lt;p&gt;Frank Mirabile for US Congress (2010)&lt;/p&gt;
        &lt;/figcaption&gt;
&lt;/figure&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Based on the sign it appears that Frank Mirabile’s campaign website had (has?) a very long domain name; was frankmirabile.com taken?  The stars are an interesting design element, but the middle and largest star looks somewhat chopped off.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Continue down memory lane with me as we look back at the campaign signs for Howard County local elections in 2010.  (For more signs see <a href="/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/">part 3</a>, and note that I didn’t make a complete record of all signs.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/frank-mirabile-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/frank-mirabile-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Frank Mirabile for US Congress (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Frank Mirabile for US Congress (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Based on the sign it appears that Frank Mirabile’s campaign website had (has?) a very long domain name; was frankmirabile.com taken?  The stars are an interesting design element, but the middle and largest star looks somewhat chopped off.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/trent-kittleman-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/trent-kittleman-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Trent Kittleman for County Executive (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Trent Kittleman for County Executive (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>One of several signs to use combinations of the colors in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Maryland">Maryland’s state flag</a>: red, white, black, and gold.  This one is unusual in attempting to use all four at once (if we count the thin white border).  Note that in the actual Maryland flag the red and white elements are visually separated from the black and gold elements, and in particular there is minimal juxtaposition of red and gold.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/eric-wargotz-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/eric-wargotz-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Eric Wargotz for US Senate (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Eric Wargotz for US Senate (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>There’s a lot to like about this sign, including the nice intrusion of the descender of the letter “g” into the middle design element.  It might have been improved by ditching the slogan (who has time to read slogans at 30-40 mph?) and the domain name and bringing “US Senate” into the bottom half of the sign, leaving the middle red and blue elements plain.  (P.S.  Yes, I know that this wasn’t strictly speaking a “local” election.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/allan-kittleman-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/allan-kittleman-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Allan Kittleman 2010"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Allan Kittleman for State Senate (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Presumably whoever designed this sign believed that when voters saw “Kittleman” they’d think “Allan.”</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/jim-fitzgerald-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/jim-fitzgerald-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Jim Fitzgerald for Sheriff (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jim Fitzgerald for Sheriff (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Another example of a bold black on yellow color scheme, this time incorporating a design element to good effect.  (Some Fitzgerald signs covered this star with a sticker indicating a police union endorsement.)</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/jon-weinstein-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/jon-weinstein-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Jon Weinstein for Delegate (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jon Weinstein for Delegate (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Here yellow serves as the text color.  I’m genuinely uncertain as to whether this sign would have been better served by using white as the text color instead: I think white text would have been more readable, but many candidates were using white text on blue in 2010, to the point of it being a cliché.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/maryann-maher-2010-logo.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/maryann-maher-2010-logo-embed.jpg"
         alt="Maryann Maher for Delegate (2010) (with logo)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Maryann Maher for Delegate (2010) (with logo)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>I recall driving myself crazy trying to figure out what the logo in the upper right corner was supposed to represent.  Other than that it’s a nice sign.</p>
<p>Tune in tomorrow for <a href="/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/">part 3</a>!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Looking back at 2010 Howard County campaign signs, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 23 Jun 2013 15:32:46 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/23/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Now that the local Howard County political campaigns are starting to heat up, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at the last local elections in 2010.  Don’t worry, this won’t be a boring statistical analysis or a deep philosophical rumination.  Instead I thought it would be fun to comment on the candidates’ 2010 campaign signs&amp;mdash;or at least the ones that I saw and managed to take pictures of.  (I had meant to do this post in 2010 but never got around to it.  For more on this topic see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt;.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now that the local Howard County political campaigns are starting to heat up, I thought it would be fun to take a look back at the last local elections in 2010.  Don’t worry, this won’t be a boring statistical analysis or a deep philosophical rumination.  Instead I thought it would be fun to comment on the candidates’ 2010 campaign signs&mdash;or at least the ones that I saw and managed to take pictures of.  (I had meant to do this post in 2010 but never got around to it.  For more on this topic see <a href="/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/">part 2</a> and <a href="/2013/06/25/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-3/">part 3</a>.)</p>
<p>I’m not a professional graphic designer, so don’t expect any truly profound thoughts.  However I do think I have at least a modicum of good taste and some basic understanding of what makes a good campaign sign design.  With that in mind, here are some general comments before we get to the signs themselves:</p>
<ul>
<li>Less is more when it comes to campaign signs.  Whether campaign signs actually make a difference or not <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/victory_lab/2012/01/campaign_signs_do_they_work_.html">is disputed</a>.  However as <a href="http://www.localvictory.com/communications/design-political-signs.html">this article</a> notes, if it does nothing else a sign has to reinforce the candidate’s name in the minds of the voters, and readability is paramount in that.  The only mandatory elements are the candidate’s last name and the office they’re seeking.</li>
<li>Getting colors right is important.  Some color combinations are a cliché at this point, like red, white, and blue (especially popular with Republicans) or green (increasingly popular with Democrats).  Other color combinations are really hard to make work.  (We’ll see some examples later.)</li>
<li>Design is a lot more subtle than people realize, though I think it’s possible for people to take it overboard.  (See for example <a href="http://www.salon.com/2012/07/23/gotham_vs_mercury_the_presidential_campaign%E2%80%99s_real_issues_salpart/">this discussion</a> of the typefaces used by the Obama and Romney campaigns.)  I personally think it’s worth finding the best graphic designer you can, even if they’re somewhat more expensive.  If you don’t feel confident in your own taste find a disinterested third party (like someone you know who’s “arty”) and ask them for advice.</li>
</ul>
<p>And now without further ado, a gallery of 2010 campaign signs and my comments on them; again, remember that I didn’t manage to get pictures of everyone’s sign, so this is only a selection:</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/larry-walker-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/larry-walker-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Larry Walker for Board of Education (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Larry Walker for Board of Education (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>How much more minimal could this be?  The answer is none.  None more minimal.  But, as noted above, it gets the job done.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/kay-hartleb-2010-fancy.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/kay-hartleb-2010-fancy-embed.jpg"
         alt="Kay Hartleb for Register of Wills (2010) (with picture)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Kay Hartleb for Register of Wills (2010) (with picture)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>At the other end of the spectrum, a sign with personality to burn.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/kay-hartleb-2010-plain.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/kay-hartleb-2010-plain-embed.jpg"
         alt="Kay Hartleb for Register of Wills (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Kay Hartleb for Register of Wills (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Here the personality gets turned down, but the red-and-white color scheme remains.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/jason-reddish-20101.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/jason-reddish-20101-embed.jpg"
         alt="Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>A color scheme that (deliberately?) puns on the candidate’s name.  It’s also the political equivalent of showing up at a party wearing the same dress as someone else&mdash;although to be fair there were a number of copycat design schemes in 2010, including (as we’ll see) the ubiquitous white text on dark blue background.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/margy-rappaport-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/margy-rappaport-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Margy Rappaport for Clerk of Court (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Margy Rappaport for Clerk of Court (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Lavender’s a color you don’t see that often in campaign signs.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/david-proudfoot-20101.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/david-proudfoot-20101-embed.jpg"
         alt="David Proudfoot for Board of Education (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>David Proudfoot for Board of Education (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Using a foot as a design element was presumably an idea that was impossible to resist.  Note also that this sign refers to the “School Board”; I think all the other candidates’ signs referred to the “Board of Education.”</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/brian-meshkin-2010.jpg">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/brian-meshkin-2010-embed.jpg"
         alt="Brian Meshkin for Board of Education (2010)"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>Brian Meshkin for Board of Education (2010)</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Brian Meshkin was one of several candidates listing a campaign website as an alternative to having people do a Google search for more information.  I didn’t notice until looking <em>very</em> closely that it also includes instructions for texting him.</p>
<p>More 2010 campaign signs to come in <a href="/2013/06/24/looking-back-at-2010-howard-county-campaign-signs-part-2/">part 2</a>!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Tom Coale for Delegate in District 9B</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/22/tom-coale-for-delegate-in-district-9b/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 22 Jun 2013 16:05:20 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/22/tom-coale-for-delegate-in-district-9b/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Last Tuesday &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2013/06/maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9b.html&#34;&gt;Tom Coale announced&lt;/a&gt; that he’s running for the open House of Delegates seat in the newly-created District 9B in (parts of) Ellicott City.  Unfortunately I was not able to attend the fundraiser in which Tom announced his campaign.  Equally unfortunately I won’t be able to vote for Tom; I live just north of the boundary line of District 9B, in “Bates-Miller” territory.  However the least I can do is to publish a blog post commenting on Tom’s platform and campaign.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last Tuesday <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2013/06/maryland-house-of-delegates-district-9b.html">Tom Coale announced</a> that he’s running for the open House of Delegates seat in the newly-created District 9B in (parts of) Ellicott City.  Unfortunately I was not able to attend the fundraiser in which Tom announced his campaign.  Equally unfortunately I won’t be able to vote for Tom; I live just north of the boundary line of District 9B, in “Bates-Miller” territory.  However the least I can do is to publish a blog post commenting on Tom’s platform and campaign.</p>
<p>Although I don’t agree with Tom on every single issue, I’ve always admired the process by which he comes to his positions and justifies them publicly.  I think his approach in this campaign exemplifies that process, as seen in his <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2013/06/campaign-website-engagement-thursday.html">blog posts</a> and on his <a href="http://tomcoale.com">campaign website</a>.</p>
<p>First, he’s starting with a clear focus on the local problems of his potential constituency in Ellicott City: basically the things that anyone living here for any length of time would be aware of, including the economic health and environmental well-being of the historic downtown.  The one thing I haven’t seen him comment on yet is the process and prospects for revitalizing and upgrading the Route 40 corridor.  It’s a less glamorous issue than the fate of historic Ellicott City and also a harder one to crack, since the Route 40 strip by its nature will always be more of a place to drive through than to drive to.  Nonetheless there’s been a lot of talk about Route 40 revitalization over the years, and I’d be interested in Tom’s thoughts on how he might work as a state delegate to further that process along.</p>
<p>Second, I like Tom’s crisp summation of the principles he thinks are important&mdash;good government, smart government, and your government&mdash;and I’d like to say little more about each one.</p>
<p>“Good government” is something we should be able to take for granted, but unfortunately cannot in many jurisdictions.  Having government be free of corruption and not unduly influenced by special interests is especially important for the Democratic Party, traditionally thought of as the party of government.  For the GOP wrongdoing by elected officials, even Republican elected officials, reinforces the argument that government is inevitably flawed and can accomplish nothing of importance compared to private enterprise.  But for the Democratic Party official wrongdoing strikes at the very heart of the party’s presumed reason for being, namely to serve all people and not just the wealthy or politically connected.</p>
<p>With regard to “smart government,” Tom writes that “I honestly believe that when most people say they favor ‘small government’, they really mean ‘smart government’.  If a program was effectively placing low income single mothers in gainful employment while offering reliable daycare, we would want that program to grow, serve more people, and change more lives.” I disagree a bit with Tom here.  For one thing, there are a fair number of libertarians and others of similar opinion who object to government on principled grounds having to do with the morality of state coercion.  There are also a fair number of people who object to particular forms of government spending for less principled reasons.  For them the issue is not whether government spending is effective or not, but whether it goes to “those people” instead of “our people.”  (I should also add that you can find this attitude on both sides of the party lines.)</p>
<p>Nevertheless Tom is correct that legislators should strive to do things that are effective in solving the problems that are supposedly at issue, and should pull back on or eliminate programs that lack such effectiveness.  Again this is important in restoring and maintaining people’s trust in government and in a party that positions itself as supportive of government.  It’s also important in restoring and maintaining the stature and status of government workers themselves.  Every wasteful and ineffective government program makes it that much harder to justify providing adequate pay and benefits for those government employees responsible for implementing such programs.</p>
<p>Besides the points Tom has already made in his blog post and campaign materials, I’d be interested in seeing Tom’s take on the approach Jim Manzi and others have advocated of undertaking controlled experiments to measure the effectiveness of government programs and related interventions.  (See for example Manzi’s book <a href="http://www.manhattan-institute.org/uncontrolled/">Uncontrolled: The Surprising Payoff of Trial-and-Error for Business, Politics, and Government</a>.)  I don’t know that this approach would be politically palatable (for the same reasons that no one in a clinical trial wants to receive a placebo), but we do have a lot of local Maryland expertise in the relevant statistical and experimental disciplines, for example at the <a href="http://www.jhsph.edu">Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health</a> and other institutions, and I think this idea is worth at least some initial exploration.</p>
<p>Finally, I agree with Tom’s points regarding government being “your government,” including that the goal should not be just transparency but clarity, particularly including clarity about Tom’s own motives and actions as a delegate should he be elected.  If he does end up in the House of Delegates, I think that will be an interesting landscape for Tom to navigate.  As a member of the Columbia Association Board of Directors he was among a small group of relatively equal players.  As a newly elected delegate, on the other hand, he would be expected to be a “team player” when it came to the legislative programs promoted by the House of Delegates leadership.  What he himself might think is right may well be in conflict with the need to “go along to get along” when it comes to receiving desired committee assignments and acquiring some measure of influence within the legislature to advance the goals he thinks are important.  I have faith in Tom’s principles, but neither he nor anyone else can forever avoid the inevitable conflicts between principle and expediency.</p>
<p>With that said, I look forward to seeing Tom’s campaign evolve as the 2014 races heat up.  Not to take anything away from the other announced or potential candidates in District 9B, whether Democrats or Republicans, but as did Dennis Lane Tom plays a special and vital role in the local Howard County scene, and I think I can speak for others when I say that I’d be overjoyed to see him advance to a bigger role on a larger stage.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Should the nation’s best library go to the mall?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/09/should-the-nations-best-library-go-to-the-mall/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 09 Jun 2013 10:18:19 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/09/should-the-nations-best-library-go-to-the-mall/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Congratulations to the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hclibrary.org/&#34;&gt;Howard County Library System&lt;/a&gt; for being selected the &lt;a href=&#34;http://ellicottcity.patch.com/articles/howard-county-library-system-named-2013-library-of-the-year&#34;&gt;2013 library of the year&lt;/a&gt; by Gale and &lt;em&gt;Library Journal&lt;/em&gt; magazine.  Note that the &lt;a href=&#34;http://lj.libraryjournal.com/2013/06/awards/2013-galelj-library-of-the-year-howard-county-library-system-md/&#34;&gt;cover story&lt;/a&gt; in the June 15 issue of &lt;em&gt;Library Journal&lt;/em&gt;, as well as pretty much any other story about the library system these days, highlights the new Miller Branch and Historical Center in Ellicott City.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;That’s fine by me, since I live in Ellicott City less than a mile from the Miller Branch; it’s my main library and I visit it frequently.  However let’s not forget that the former flagship library in Howard County, namely the Central Branch in Columbia, is not nearly so cover story worthy these days.  A while ago I imagined how the Howard County Library System might work with the county government to &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/turbocharging-downtown-columbia-with-a-new-central-branch-library/&#34;&gt;re-imagine the Central Branch for the 21st century&lt;/a&gt;, building a new and larger facility next to Symphony Woods and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/could-howard-county-libraries-help-grow-howard-countys-economy/&#34;&gt;adding a startup incubator and co-working space&lt;/a&gt; to the existing library functions.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Congratulations to the <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/">Howard County Library System</a> for being selected the <a href="http://ellicottcity.patch.com/articles/howard-county-library-system-named-2013-library-of-the-year">2013 library of the year</a> by Gale and <em>Library Journal</em> magazine.  Note that the <a href="http://lj.libraryjournal.com/2013/06/awards/2013-galelj-library-of-the-year-howard-county-library-system-md/">cover story</a> in the June 15 issue of <em>Library Journal</em>, as well as pretty much any other story about the library system these days, highlights the new Miller Branch and Historical Center in Ellicott City.</p>
<p>That’s fine by me, since I live in Ellicott City less than a mile from the Miller Branch; it’s my main library and I visit it frequently.  However let’s not forget that the former flagship library in Howard County, namely the Central Branch in Columbia, is not nearly so cover story worthy these days.  A while ago I imagined how the Howard County Library System might work with the county government to <a href="/2013/02/23/turbocharging-downtown-columbia-with-a-new-central-branch-library/">re-imagine the Central Branch for the 21st century</a>, building a new and larger facility next to Symphony Woods and <a href="/2013/02/23/could-howard-county-libraries-help-grow-howard-countys-economy/">adding a startup incubator and co-working space</a> to the existing library functions.</p>
<p>However one problem I glossed over was that of parking.  I don’t have exact figures, but my estimate is that the new Miller Branch has at least three times the number of parking spaces as the current Central Branch.  An expanded Central Branch might need even more parking than that.  I suggested using the parking garage planned for Symphony Woods, but that might be a relatively long walk.</p>
<p>So here’s another out-of-the-box option for a new Central Branch: Why not put it at <a href="http://www.themallincolumbia.com">the Mall in Columbia</a>?  Both JCPenney and Sears have been having severe ongoing financial problems, and it’s possible that either or both may close their stores at the mall in the next 10 years.  If for some reason the mall can’t find new anchor tenants, that would open up the possibility of putting a new library at the mall, either reusing one of the existing store buildings or constructing an entirely new building.</p>
<p>Putting a new library at the mall would certainly address the parking problem.  It would also provide some synergy with existing activities at the mall: library patrons could eat at the mall, and the library could provide a stream of new visitors for the mall’s stores.  The existing Central Branch site could then be reused for some other purpose, for example for a future performing arts space as part of the Symphony Woods cultural district.</p>
<p>I’m totally ignorant in commercial real estate matters (I wish Dennis Lane were still around ask about this), so I have no idea if the economics of this might work.  However I thought it was an interesting idea to think about as the redevelopment of downtown Columbia proceeds apace.</p>
<p>(For more information on repurposing malls see the Atlantic Cities article “<a href="http://www.theatlanticcities.com/jobs-and-economy/2013/01/7-alternatives-failing-shopping-malls/4335/">7 uses for failing shopping malls</a>.”  For more information on libraries and malls see the <a href="http://libraryarchitecture.wikispaces.com/Libraries+in+Shopping+Malls">libraries in shopping malls page</a> from the Celsus library architecture resource.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Repairing my personal infrastructure</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/02/repairing-my-personal-infrastructure/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 02 Jun 2013 22:29:09 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/06/02/repairing-my-personal-infrastructure/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;They say America is suffering a crisis of ill-maintained infrastructure prone to occasional failure.  Closer to home I’ve been having my own infrastructure problems, culminating last week in shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff.  I’ll be taking some time out from blogging to invest in healing, physical therapy, and (I hope) eventual recovery.  I’m sorry I’ll miss the memorial service on June 4 for Dennis Lane, and probably also the reception for Tom Coale on the 18th.  In the meantime best wishes to my readers and fellow HoCo bloggers; I hope to see you online or off-line as soon as I can.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They say America is suffering a crisis of ill-maintained infrastructure prone to occasional failure.  Closer to home I’ve been having my own infrastructure problems, culminating last week in shoulder surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff.  I’ll be taking some time out from blogging to invest in healing, physical therapy, and (I hope) eventual recovery.  I’m sorry I’ll miss the memorial service on June 4 for Dennis Lane, and probably also the reception for Tom Coale on the 18th.  In the meantime best wishes to my readers and fellow HoCo bloggers; I hope to see you online or off-line as soon as I can.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="31f5f442-003"><a href="http://lisabmrss.blogspot.com" title="lisabmrss@gmail.com">LisaBMrsS</a> - 2013-06-03 16:20</h4>
<p>Here&rsquo;s to a smooth and full recovery, Frank! Hope to see you soon.</p>
<h4 id="31f5f442-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-06-03 16:37</h4>
<p>Thanks for your kind words!</p>
<h4 id="31f5f442-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2013-06-04 13:05</h4>
<p>Oy, I hope you&rsquo;re feeling better and recovered fully soon!</p>
<h4 id="31f5f442-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-06-04 14:10</h4>
<p>Thanks!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>RIP Dennis Lane</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/05/10/rip-dennis-lane/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 10 May 2013 19:49:10 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/05/10/rip-dennis-lane/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I knew Dennis Lane only slightly: I occasionally commented on &lt;a href=&#34;http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;his blog&lt;/a&gt;, he commented on mine once or twice, and I met and talked to him several times at Howard County blogger meetups and other events.  I can’t speak to his life as a private person and how he came to a &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-exhow-police-homicide-ellicott-city-story,0,1605996.story&#34;&gt;violent end&lt;/a&gt;, and even if I could I wouldn’t: I don’t blog about my own private and family life, and won’t do so about others.  However I did want to say a few words to mark his death.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I knew Dennis Lane only slightly: I occasionally commented on <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/">his blog</a>, he commented on mine once or twice, and I met and talked to him several times at Howard County blogger meetups and other events.  I can’t speak to his life as a private person and how he came to a <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-exhow-police-homicide-ellicott-city-story,0,1605996.story">violent end</a>, and even if I could I wouldn’t: I don’t blog about my own private and family life, and won’t do so about others.  However I did want to say a few words to mark his death.</p>
<p>What I admired most about Dennis as a blogger was his ability to write frequently and seemingly extemporaneously on a variety of topics: local politics, real estate and business affairs, and just the normal goings-on of daily life.  He mentioned recently that he hadn’t had time to blog as much as normal, but (as I commented on the post), even his “infrequent” blogging way outpaced my own truly infrequent offerings.  I also enjoyed reading his <a href="http://bizmonthly.com/">Business Monthly</a> columns, whenever I picked up a copy at a local establishment; it was one of the few things I read on paper rather than online.  Leaving aside all his other contributions to Howard County, he’ll be sorely missed in the local blogging community, of which he was a founder and guiding light.</p>
<p>A couple of other points: In 2012 four people were murdered in Howard County and I was acquainted with two of them, Mary-Marguerite Kohn and Brenda Brewington, who were shot at St Peters Episcopal Church in Ellicott City almost exactly a year ago.  This year I think there have been two homicides in Howard County thus far, and I’m acquainted with one of the victims.  Strange that in a placid suburban county of 300,000 violent death should so disproportionately strike people I know.</p>
<p>FInally, it’s fitting that I first learned of Dennis’s death while reading a <a href="http://rocketpoweredbutterfly.com/2013/05/10/one-last-wag/">blog post</a>, in this case by TJ Mayotte.  It’s a measure of how much I rely on <a href="http://hocoblogs.com/">local blogs</a> and hyper-local sites like <a href="http://ellicottcity.patch.com/">Ellicott City Patch</a> and <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/">Explore Howard</a> for my knowledge of Howard County affairs.  I guess one way to honor Dennis and what he meant to our local online community is to get off my rear end and blog some more myself.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="147bb70b-001">Kiss-And-Fly-NYC (social@nightlifemoguls.com) - 2013-05-12 16:41</h4>
<p>Rest In Peace Dennis, You Will be Missed.</p>
<h4 id="147bb70b-002"><a href="http://mickeygomez.com/remembering-dennis-lane">Remembering Dennis Lane | Life and How to Live It</a> - 2013-05-12 19:50</h4>
<p>[…] Columbia, Jessie X, HoCoLoco, Village Green/Town Squared, HoCo Connect, The 53, Frank Hecker, Steve Charing, HowChow, UK Desperate […]</p>
<h4 id="147bb70b-004">superman721 (ghettotifg@gmail.com) - 2013-05-13 15:04</h4>
<p>THE PEOPLE THAT [allegedly] KILLED HIM WERE in my class both of them and trust me they were weird and technically cant he be charged with having sex with a minor [omitted]</p>
<h4 id="147bb70b-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-05-13 15:31</h4>
<p>I edited your comment to remove the last part &ndash; specific allegations that might relate to potential criminal charges should be addressed by the authorities as part of the legal process. I also edited it to note that guilt has not yet been determined at this point.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The long game in Columbia</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/04/29/the-long-game-in-columbia/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Apr 2013 19:58:16 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/04/29/the-long-game-in-columbia/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;One political faction obtains a solid majority and uses it to push through a far-reaching initiative, only to have their dominance threatened in a subsequent election marked by newly-energized opposition and relatively low turnout.  The 2010 mid-term victories of the Republican party?  No, it’s the “Pioneers strike back” victories in the just-concluded elections for the Columbia Association Board of Directors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Tom Coale has already done a good &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2013/04/village-elections-2013-fin.html&#34;&gt;wrap-up&lt;/a&gt;, so I’ll confine myself to a couple of thoughts continuing the analogy above.  First, what I’ll call the “anti-Arbor” faction faces a decision on strategy similar to that of the anti-Obamacare GOP post-2010: They apparently don’t have the votes to reverse the decision outright, so they face a choice between trying to shape the Inner Arbor plan more to their liking, making compromises where they can find them, or throwing sand in the gears of CA governance to try to delay things until they can re-take a board majority and kill the plan then.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One political faction obtains a solid majority and uses it to push through a far-reaching initiative, only to have their dominance threatened in a subsequent election marked by newly-energized opposition and relatively low turnout.  The 2010 mid-term victories of the Republican party?  No, it’s the “Pioneers strike back” victories in the just-concluded elections for the Columbia Association Board of Directors.</p>
<p>Tom Coale has already done a good <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2013/04/village-elections-2013-fin.html">wrap-up</a>, so I’ll confine myself to a couple of thoughts continuing the analogy above.  First, what I’ll call the “anti-Arbor” faction faces a decision on strategy similar to that of the anti-Obamacare GOP post-2010: They apparently don’t have the votes to reverse the decision outright, so they face a choice between trying to shape the Inner Arbor plan more to their liking, making compromises where they can find them, or throwing sand in the gears of CA governance to try to delay things until they can re-take a board majority and kill the plan then.</p>
<p>I have no idea which strategy they’ll choose, and in one sense I don’t care&mdash;they’ll do what they want to do regardless of what I think.  I’m more concerned about the strategy of those who favor the Inner Arbor plan and the accompanying 21st century redevelopment of Columbia.  In a <a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2013/04/empathy.html">recent post</a> unsuccessful candidate Julia McCready rues the “sliminess” in the electoral process.  I understand her being upset, especially about untruths allegedly spread by the incumbent.  Tom Coale also writes of “blatant and intentional lies” from Inner Arbor opponents.  Going back to the GOP analogy, it sounds like someone’s been exercising their inner Karl Rove (or Lee Atwater, to use an example for an older generation).  However I think the operative advice here is, “Don’t get mad, get even.”</p>
<p>How to do that?  In <a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/2013/04/columbia-in-past-tense.html">another post</a> Julia looks to the passing of the Pioneer generation: “None of us are immortal.  The time will come when those in power are gone.” Unfortunately I think this is like the Democratic party looking to demographic change for its salvation.  Consider that even 70-ish Inner Arbor opponents can expect to live another 16 years or so if male, and almost 19 years if female, and they may attract younger proteges and supporters in the meantime.  Waiting in and of itself is not going to win the day.</p>
<p>What will?  I think Tom Coale has the right idea: “forward-thinking candidates” are going to have to build their own networks of dedicated supporters, people who will turn out reliably to testify at CA board meetings and vote in CA and village board elections.  This will require not just online activism but old-fashioned offline relationship building and dues-paying, not just for a year or two leading up to the next CA elections but for the long term.</p>
<p>Which leaves me with a final question: Are there enough competent and energetic people who have the patience and stamina for that, especially in an era when Columbia is no longer the “new city upon a hill” but a suburb much like any other?  The Columbia Pioneers have spent over thirty years promoting their vision of Columbia; is the next generation of Columbians prepared to spend the next thirty years promoting theirs?</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="3eb80690-002"><a href="http://villagegreentownsquared.blogspot.com/" title="divajackson@yahoo.com">Julia McCready</a> - 2013-04-30 00:21</h4>
<p>Although you used a direct quote here, I&rsquo;m not sure it means what you think it does. My point was that the Pioneers canot live forever, therefore, their unwillingness to share power may ultimately be the undoing of the place they love. By the time they are gone, many folks will have grown weary of the battle and ceased to care at all. Who will have the knowledge to make it all work then?</p>
<h4 id="3eb80690-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-04-30 02:42</h4>
<p>Thanks for the clarification. You&rsquo;re right, I hijacked your quote a bit to make my own point. Speaking to your point, that&rsquo;s related to a comment I made previously re Symphony Woods in particular: That trying to preserve it unaltered was ultimately going to doom it, because a subsequent generation would see it as just an unused treed plot and wouldn&rsquo;t have any real connection to it&ndash;it might as well be sold by CA, clear-cut, and turned into condos or parking for Merriweather for all they&rsquo;d care.</p>
<h4 id="3eb80690-001"><a href="http://twitter.com/JessieX" title="JessieX@twitter.example.com">Jessie Newburn (@JessieX)</a> - 2013-05-06 19:03</h4>
<p>But Pioneers (the Silent Gen) VOTE! They vote-vote-vote. That&rsquo;s why, even as the smallest of four generations, and the oldest (natch), they still carry weight. I personally think one of the most significant issues is that people care about the community in which they live, and most people don&rsquo;t *understand* what Columbia and CA is, nor the villages, and therefore, don&rsquo;t know to care enough to participate in leadership opps or to vote.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Martin O’Malley has his eyes on the prize and off the ball</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/03/03/martin-omalley-has-his-eyes-on-the-prize-and-off-the-ball/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 03 Mar 2013 10:50:15 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/03/03/martin-omalley-has-his-eyes-on-the-prize-and-off-the-ball/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I don’t usually comment on Maryland politics beyond Howard County, but this &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/post-poll-shows-omalley-with-mediocre-support-in-maryland/2013/03/02/1d8fb1d4-8257-11e2-b99e-6baf4ebe42df_story.html&#34; title=&#34;Post poll: O’Malley gets a mixed rating as governor in Md&#34;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Washington Post&lt;/em&gt; story on Martin O’Malley’s approval rating&lt;/a&gt; reinforces an opinion I’ve held for a while: O’Malley seems to be frittering away his second term trying to make himself into a national figure, as opposed to actually doing the hard work of preparing Maryland for success in the 21st century.  Maybe this is an unfair characterization; maybe (as with the college tuition and school funding issues mentioned in the article) he’s just had a problem “communicating his accomplishments.”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don’t usually comment on Maryland politics beyond Howard County, but this <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/post-poll-shows-omalley-with-mediocre-support-in-maryland/2013/03/02/1d8fb1d4-8257-11e2-b99e-6baf4ebe42df_story.html" title="Post poll: O’Malley gets a mixed rating as governor in Md"><em>Washington Post</em> story on Martin O’Malley’s approval rating</a> reinforces an opinion I’ve held for a while: O’Malley seems to be frittering away his second term trying to make himself into a national figure, as opposed to actually doing the hard work of preparing Maryland for success in the 21st century.  Maybe this is an unfair characterization; maybe (as with the college tuition and school funding issues mentioned in the article) he’s just had a problem “communicating his accomplishments.”</p>
<p>But it’s a simple fact that the public has a limited attention span, and they can be forgiven for thinking that O’Malley’s top priorities right now are things like gun control and repealing the death penalty, given that those have been most in the news with his name attached.  I doubt that either of these issues is on the average voter’s top 10 list of critical problems facing Maryland, and so I’m not surprised that voters are lukewarm in their feelings about O’Malley.</p>
<p>The simple fact is that Maryland voters have no desire to see Martin O’Malley run for president in 2016, and <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-12-06/news/bal-omalley-grabs-5-in-early-2016-poll-if-hillary-stays-out-20121206_1_martin-o-malley-clinton-grabs-ppp-poll">nobody else does either</a>.  So why spend the next few years polishing his liberal credentials for the benefit of Democratic activists and primary voters?  Why not spend the time building a reputation as someone willing to take on hard long-term issues, like growing Maryland’s economy in the coming age of Federal austerity, ensuring that Maryland’s health care system works well as implementation of the Affordable Care Act goes into high gear, and putting the state on a sound financial footing without resorting to excessive taxes or gimmicks like casino expansion?</p>
<p>Unlike Barack Obama, O’Malley doesn’t have the excuse of facing an implacable Republican opposition capable of blocking his political agenda.  If a Democratic governor can’t be effective in Maryland, where can they be effective?  And though as a registered Democrat it pains me to say this, right now I’d count both Robert McDonnell in Virginia and Chris Christie in New Jersey (plus Andrew Cuomo on the Democratic side in New York) as doing a better job of actually governing their states than Martin O’Malley.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The library as spiritual experience</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/the-library-as-spiritual-experience/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 23 Feb 2013 11:30:42 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/the-library-as-spiritual-experience/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I think this is a record for me: Three posts in one day, and all about libraries to boot, to mark the occasion of the “&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=330&#34;&gt;Evening in the Stacks&lt;/a&gt;” fundraising event at the Miller Branch of the Howard County Library System.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;After finishing my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/turbocharging-downtown-columbia-with-a-new-central-branch-library/&#34;&gt;last post&lt;/a&gt; I happened to be thinking of the role that libraries play in the life of their communities and how libraries are portrayed in TV and films: as just another setting for sitcom wisecracking and rom-com “meeting cute,” or perhaps as a place to go to discover mysterious dark secrets leading to overblown action sequences&amp;mdash;what I’ll call the “Indiana Jones” or Da Vinci Code perspective.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think this is a record for me: Three posts in one day, and all about libraries to boot, to mark the occasion of the “<a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=330">Evening in the Stacks</a>” fundraising event at the Miller Branch of the Howard County Library System.</p>
<p>After finishing my <a href="/2013/02/23/turbocharging-downtown-columbia-with-a-new-central-branch-library/">last post</a> I happened to be thinking of the role that libraries play in the life of their communities and how libraries are portrayed in TV and films: as just another setting for sitcom wisecracking and rom-com “meeting cute,” or perhaps as a place to go to discover mysterious dark secrets leading to overblown action sequences&mdash;what I’ll call the “Indiana Jones” or Da Vinci Code perspective.</p>
<p>As an antidote to all that I present possibly the most beautiful cinematic scene ever set in a library, from the Wim Wenders film <em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wings_of_Desire">Wings of Desire</a></em> (<em>Der Himmel über Berlin</em>), as angels (the men and women in long coats and scarves) visit the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berlin_State_Library">Berlin State Library</a> (Staatsbibliothek zu Berlin) and overhear the thoughts of the patrons as they read.</p>
<div style="position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; height: 0; overflow: hidden;">
      <iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share; fullscreen" loading="eager" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3LsUFzuTeS4?autoplay=0&amp;controls=1&amp;end=0&amp;loop=0&amp;mute=0&amp;start=0" style="position: absolute; top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; border:0;" title="YouTube video"></iframe>
    </div>

<hr>
<h4 id="9adb5c1a-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2013-02-23 16:35</h4>
<p>Amen, Mr. Hecker! I often refer to the library &ndash; East Branch, and my own personal fave &ndash; as a sanctuary and holy place.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Turbocharging downtown Columbia with a new Central Branch library</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/turbocharging-downtown-columbia-with-a-new-central-branch-library/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 23 Feb 2013 10:12:38 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/turbocharging-downtown-columbia-with-a-new-central-branch-library/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I couldn’t stop thinking about the possibilities that might be opened by a new Central Branch of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://hclibrary.org/index.php?page=111&#34;&gt;Howard County Library System&lt;/a&gt;, so I’m taking the unprecedented step of posting twice in one day.  In my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/could-howard-county-libraries-help-grow-howard-countys-economy/&#34; title=&#34;Could Howard County libraries help grow Howard County’s economy?&#34;&gt;last post&lt;/a&gt; I proposed building a new Central Branch facility that included at least a dedicated co-working space and business resource center, and possibly having it also host the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hceda.org/maryland-center-for-entrepreneurship/icat.aspx&#34;&gt;Innovation Catalyst&lt;/a&gt; program run by the Howard County Economic Development Authority in the same building, just as the Miller Branch currently hosts the &lt;a href=&#34;http://hchsmd.org/&#34;&gt;Howard County Historical Society&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I couldn’t stop thinking about the possibilities that might be opened by a new Central Branch of the <a href="http://hclibrary.org/index.php?page=111">Howard County Library System</a>, so I’m taking the unprecedented step of posting twice in one day.  In my <a href="/could-howard-county-libraries-help-grow-howard-countys-economy/" title="Could Howard County libraries help grow Howard County’s economy?">last post</a> I proposed building a new Central Branch facility that included at least a dedicated co-working space and business resource center, and possibly having it also host the <a href="http://www.hceda.org/maryland-center-for-entrepreneurship/icat.aspx">Innovation Catalyst</a> program run by the Howard County Economic Development Authority in the same building, just as the Miller Branch currently hosts the <a href="http://hchsmd.org/">Howard County Historical Society</a>.</p>
<p>Unfortunately though the space requirements to do this are much greater: The Historical Society occupies less than 5% of the Miller Branch building (<a href="http://ellicottcity.patch.com/listings/howard-county-library-system-charles-e-miller-branch-historical-center" title="Howard County Library System Charles E. Miller Branch &amp; Historical Center ">3,000 square feet out of 63,000 square feet</a>), while the iCat facility is 25,000 square feet vs. <a href="http://maryland.educationbug.org/public-library/7094-central-library.html" title="Central Library - Columbia, Maryland - Branch Library">less than 50,000 square feet</a> for the current Central Branch facility.  Assuming that a new Central Branch facility would have roughly the same footprint as the present one, that’s a major obstacle.</p>
<p>Then while lying in bed last night I thought: The Miller Branch is two stories, an appropriate size because it’s in a relatively rural setting.  So is the current Central Branch.  But a new Central Branch is going to be at the center of what will be an increasingly urban area; why not make it a three-story facility instead?  Assume that the library portion would be roughly the size of the Miller Branch at about 60,000 square feet spread over two stories.  Then add an additional 30,000 square feet in the form of a third story to house the co-working space, business resource center, and iCat program.  I’m no developer or architect, but looking at an aerial view of the current Central Branch it seems like there’s be more than enough room to increase the building’s footprint to accommodate a three-story facility with 90,000 (or even up to 100,000) square feet.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/central-branch-aerial-view.png"><img alt="Howard County Central Branch library" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/central-branch-aerial-view-embed.png#floattopright"></a></p>
<p>This would be a significantly larger building than the current Central Branch, but I think it would be quite in character with its surroundings: Across Little Patuxent Parkway are office buildings at least twice as tall, and a three-story building would be a nice transition to the future CA headquarters in Symphony Woods.</p>
<p>But what about parking?  The new Miller Branch has <a href="http://www.howa.lib.md.us/index.php?page=656" title="Miller Branch - About the Building">470 parking spaces</a> spread across three parking lots (for the Miller Branch proper, the old Miller Branch facility now used at the HCLS central office, and the Ellicott City senior center); <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=531" title="Library Building Projects - Miller Branch Frequently Asked Questions">250 of those spaces</a> are next to the new Miller Branch building.  In comparison the current Central Branch has less than 150 parking spaces by my count.  (I couldn’t find any figures on this, so I resorted to counting spaces by hand in the Google Maps image.)  As anyone who’s visited Central Branch knows, parking can be very hard to find there, and almost doubling the size of the building would make it worse.</p>
<p>However, there’s an obvious solution at hand: Part of the <a href="http://www.columbiaassociation.com/SymphonyWoodsPark/index.cfm">Inner Arbor plan</a> is a 1,750-space multi-level parking garage.  I haven’t seen anything about the intended uses for that garage, but one possibility is to use it for overflow parking from a future Central Branch facility, and maintain the ground-level parking lot at the new Central Branch at around 100-150 spaces.</p>
<p>Would adding a co-working space and iCat space to a new Central Branch greatly increase vehicular traffic in the downtown area?  I don’t think so: Typical library traffic is characterized by many relatively short visits as people drop by to return books or check out new ones; even more extended uses like kids doing homework after school might last only a couple of hours.  People using a co-working space or an iCat office would likely stay there for most if not all of the day, so the incremental traffic from increasing the library space by 50% for those uses would likely be less than one would think.</p>
<p>Let’s tie all this together and look at the overall vision.  A new Central Branch facility with dedicated co-working space and a co-located facility for the Innovation Catalyst program could be a driver for entrepreneurial vibrancy in the new Columbia downtown:</p>
<ul>
<li>Downstairs high school students could participate in educational activities like the <a href="http://hclibrary.org/index.php?page=691">HiTech program</a> focusing on science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, along with business education focused on that same population.</li>
<li>Upstairs free-lancers young and old could use the co-working space and learn more about business and small-scale entrepreneurship (e.g., starting and operating successful “lifestyle businesses”).</li>
<li>Those wanting to “take it up a notch” could participate in the iCat program and try to launch innovative new startups.</li>
<li>If they’re successful then there would be plenty of prime office space nearby into which they could expand their businesses.</li>
</ul>
<p>And of course all this would be happening right next to a beautiful urban park and arts district, with cafés and an upscale grocery nearby, a major regional shopping center across the street, and attractive apartment and condominium complexes within walking distance.  It’s a classic live/work/play (and learn!) combination, and I think might go a long way toward attracting and retaining the sort of bright ambitious young people who could contribute a lot toward the future economy and culture of Howard County.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="8321e8bd-001">Concerned taxpayer (junk@somedomain.com) - 2013-02-23 16:43</h4>
<p>So, why do we need all this?? The existing library is under utilized already.</p>
<h4 id="8321e8bd-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2013-02-23 16:56</h4>
<p>I can&rsquo;t speak to Central Branch (I don&rsquo;t go there that often), but Miller Branch is crowded pretty much any time I go there. Also, the utilization of Miller Branch seemed to go way up once the new building was opened, for example as kids went there after school to do homework. My proposal is in the context of a long-term redevelopment of downtown Columbia that will add several thousand residents within the service area of Central Branch. At some point the current Central Branch facility is going to need to be expanded, and my proposal is to use that expansion as an occasion to add additional functions that are complementary to traditional library uses and (in the case of the iCat program) are currently dispersed around the county in non-central locations.</p>
<h4 id="8321e8bd-003">lemon_sorbet (msfennell@gmail.com) - 2013-02-23 18:27</h4>
<p>I visit the Central branch frequently, and I find that it&rsquo;s always busy. In fact, there have been times when the branch had posted signs encouraging people to visit the East branch instead because the parking lot is always full.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Could Howard County libraries help grow Howard County’s economy?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/could-howard-county-libraries-help-grow-howard-countys-economy/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 23 Feb 2013 01:07:59 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/23/could-howard-county-libraries-help-grow-howard-countys-economy/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Unfortunately I won’t be able to attend the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=330&#34;&gt;Evening in the Stacks&lt;/a&gt; fundraiser at the Miller Branch of the Howard County Library System.  However that won’t stop me from doing a library-themed blog post to mark the occasion:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Recently the &lt;em&gt;Howard County Times&lt;/em&gt; published an &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-ho-cf-library-0221-20130220,0,3166122.story&#34;&gt;article&lt;/a&gt; highlighting the HiTech program at the Savage Branch.  To quote from the &lt;a href=&#34;http://hclibrary.org/index.php?page=691&#34;&gt;library’s web site&lt;/a&gt;, HiTech is a “new digital media lab for teens centering on science, technology, engineering and math.”  It’s part and parcel of the library’s expanding role as an educational resource for Howard County residents.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unfortunately I won’t be able to attend the <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=330">Evening in the Stacks</a> fundraiser at the Miller Branch of the Howard County Library System.  However that won’t stop me from doing a library-themed blog post to mark the occasion:</p>
<p>Recently the <em>Howard County Times</em> published an <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/ellicott-city/ph-ho-cf-library-0221-20130220,0,3166122.story">article</a> highlighting the HiTech program at the Savage Branch.  To quote from the <a href="http://hclibrary.org/index.php?page=691">library’s web site</a>, HiTech is a “new digital media lab for teens centering on science, technology, engineering and math.”  It’s part and parcel of the library’s expanding role as an educational resource for Howard County residents.</p>
<p>But what happens when all those teens graduate from the HiTech program and go out into the world of work?  Could the Howard County Library System play a role not just in educating young people, but in helping those young people and others put their education to work as entrepreneurs?  The Atlantic Cities, a companion site to the Atlantic Monthly’s online presence, recently published an article explaining “<a href="http://qz.com/55691/why-libraries-should-be-the-next-great-startup-incubators/">Why libraries should be the next great startup incubators</a>”:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Would-be entrepreneurs everywhere are looking for business know-how and physical space to incubate their start-ups.  Libraries meanwhile may be associated today with an outmoded product in paper books.  But they also happen to have just about everything a 21st century innovator could need: Internet access, work space, reference materials, professional guidance.</p>
<p>Why not . . . put these two ideas together?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The article goes on to discuss a program in which Arizona State University will partner with the local library system to provide “dedicated co-working spaces . . . as well as both formal classes and informal mentoring from the university’s start-up resources . . . everything, in short, but seed money.”  In essence it’s a step up from the current common practice of people hanging around the library to work on their laptops and access reference material, while not substituting for a full-fledged incubator program that provides startup funding.</p>
<p>Would something like this work in Howard County?  For some time now I’ve been interested in the idea of co-working spaces in Howard County&mdash;in fact, it’s what first got me involved in the hoCo blog scene, via commenting on Jessie Newburn’s blog and then doing a <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2007/05/05/coworking-in-columbia/">guest post</a> on the topic.  I’m still skeptical on the idea, for reasons stated in the post.  However I think it’s worth taking another look at, and along those lines here’s an idea I’ll throw out there:</p>
<p>With the redevelopment of downtown Columbia and the implementation of the new Inner Arbor plan, one key element will be replacing the Central Branch of the Howard County library system with a new facility along the lines of the new Miller Branch.  Why not make a key element of that new facility a co-working space cum business resource center along the lines described in the Atlantic Cities article?  In fact, let’s think even bigger: Why not take the current <a href="http://www.hceda.org/maryland-center-for-entrepreneurship/icat.aspx">Innovation Catalyst</a> (iCat) program (run by the Howard County Economic Development Authority’s Maryland Center for Entrepreneurship), move it from its current (rather obscure) location off Route 108, and make it a part of an expanded Central Branch as well?  The iCat facility and associated coworking space could be to the new Central Branch what the Howard County Historical Center is to the Miller Branch: something that adds value to the library and can leverage the library’s resources.</p>
<p>Now I can see real problems with fitting all this stuff in: The Howard County Historical Center is only 3,000 square feet out of the 63,000 square feet at Miller Branch, while the current iCat office is 25,000 square feet.  (By comparison the current Central Branch is just under 50,000 square feet.)  But I still like the idea of expanding the idea of the library from a place to learn things to also be a place to do things, and have it do its part to help drive economic growth in Howard County.  Now that the Inner Arbor plan is starting down the road to being realized, let’s think about what else can be done to add life and vibrancy to the new downtown.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Columbia is not a gated community</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/13/columbia-is-not-a-gated-community/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 13 Feb 2013 00:13:21 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/13/columbia-is-not-a-gated-community/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Over at &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbiacompass.weebly.com/&#34;&gt;Columbia Compass&lt;/a&gt; Bill Santos has written a &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbiacompass.weebly.com/1/post/2013/02/is-it-possible-to-unlearn-the-lessons-of-columbia-maryland.html&#34; title=&#34;Is it Possible to Unlearn the Lessons of Columbia, Maryland?&#34;&gt;great post&lt;/a&gt; that brought into focus some of my thoughts around the proposed &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia.patch.com/articles/dpz-to-recommend-symphony-woods-approval-process-start-at-step-nine&#34;&gt;Inner Arbor project&lt;/a&gt; for Symphony Woods.  I really like what I’ve heard and seen of the project and I hope it comes to fruition.  But. . . I live in Ellicott City, not in Columbia, and when Ian Kennedy asked people to &lt;a href=&#34;https://www.change.org/petitions/columbia-association-board-of-directors-approve-the-inner-arbor-plan&#34;&gt;sign a petition&lt;/a&gt; in support of the project I was at first hesitant to do so.  After all, I’m not a Columbia property owner, I don’t vote for the Columbia Association board of directors, and whatever money CA chooses to spend in support of the Inner Arbor project is not going to come out of my pocket.  Should I just stay out of the controversy and leave Columbia-related matters to the &amp;ldquo;real Columbians&amp;rdquo;?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Over at <a href="http://columbiacompass.weebly.com/">Columbia Compass</a> Bill Santos has written a <a href="http://columbiacompass.weebly.com/1/post/2013/02/is-it-possible-to-unlearn-the-lessons-of-columbia-maryland.html" title="Is it Possible to Unlearn the Lessons of Columbia, Maryland?">great post</a> that brought into focus some of my thoughts around the proposed <a href="http://columbia.patch.com/articles/dpz-to-recommend-symphony-woods-approval-process-start-at-step-nine">Inner Arbor project</a> for Symphony Woods.  I really like what I’ve heard and seen of the project and I hope it comes to fruition.  But. . . I live in Ellicott City, not in Columbia, and when Ian Kennedy asked people to <a href="https://www.change.org/petitions/columbia-association-board-of-directors-approve-the-inner-arbor-plan">sign a petition</a> in support of the project I was at first hesitant to do so.  After all, I’m not a Columbia property owner, I don’t vote for the Columbia Association board of directors, and whatever money CA chooses to spend in support of the Inner Arbor project is not going to come out of my pocket.  Should I just stay out of the controversy and leave Columbia-related matters to the &ldquo;real Columbians&rdquo;?</p>
<p>In the end I signed the petition (with the encouragement of Tom Coale), but I still had some residual concerns about doing so.  However Bill’s post has dispelled all of those.  In particular he demolishes the argument of two Columbia residents that CA is nothing more than a homeowners association and as such has “no business serving others with our monies” by “[putting] CA’s residents’ property (i.e.  Symphony Woods) . . . to the regular service of patrons spanning a widespread geographic area, not just Columbians.”  As Bill points out, CA is a tax-exempt organization whose exemption from taxation is specifically conditioned on its “promoting in some way the common good and general welfare of the people of the community” and making its “common areas or facilities” available “for the use and enjoyment of the general public.”</p>
<p>In other words, Columbia is not and cannot be the equivalent of a gated community operated for the sole benefit of Columbia lien payers.  To put it bluntly, Columbians have no business telling me that the decisions of CA are none of my business.  As a taxpayer I’m in my own small way having to make up for the lost tax revenues due to CA’s tax-exempt status&mdash;and of course I’ll also be helping to pay for any county-funded amenities (like a new library) that might be built to supplement the CA-funded Inner Arbor facilities.</p>
<p>Beyond the legalities, I can’t understand why right-thinking Columbians would want to put up a metaphorical wall around Columbia and Symphony Woods.  Even leaving aside the original Columbia vision of diversity and inclusivity, the health and well-being of Columbia as a community, not to mention the value of Columbians’ properties, are ultimately dependent on the ability of Columbia to attract the custom and patronage not just of Columbians, but of residents of the rest of Howard County and central Maryland in general.</p>
<p>As I’ve written before, Symphony Woods is not a remote wilderness to be preserved in a pristine state of nature with minimal human presence, it is a park&mdash;and as Columbia’s downtown evolves, it will be very much an <em>urban</em> park&mdash;whose continued existence ultimately depends on the benefits it provides to members of the community within which it is situated.  Declaring it off-limits to compatible uses like an arts district is a recipe for its long-term decline into irrelevance.  As Symphony Woods is to Columbia, so is Columbia to the rest of Howard County.  If Columbia can’t evolve to meet the challenges of a new time&mdash;or more correctly, if Columbians are unwilling to let it thus evolve&mdash;then that’s a recipe for Columbia’s own long-term decline into irrelevance.  And as Bill points out, that’s a violation not only of the spirit of Columbia but also of the letter of the law under which Columbia and CA are organized.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="25c077ed-001"><a href="http://www.hocorising.com" title="tcoale@gmail.com">Tom Coale</a> - 2013-02-13 13:01</h4>
<p>Glad you signed the petition, Frank. The exclusionary insular mindset is the vocal minority. I think most Columbians think a lot more along the lines of what Bill has said.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>From Symphony Woods to the Commonwealth of Belle Isle</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/01/from-symphony-woods-to-the-commonwealth-of-belle-isle/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 01 Feb 2013 18:45:25 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/02/01/from-symphony-woods-to-the-commonwealth-of-belle-isle/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;For the most part I’ve stayed out of the debate over the &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia.patch.com/articles/ca-dramatically-alters-plans-for-symphony-woods&#34;&gt;“Inner Arbor” plan&lt;/a&gt; proposed for consideration by the Columbia Association Board of Directors.  For the record, I think the idea of having an everyday “there there” in Symphony Woods (i.e., not just Merriweather Post Pavilion) is a good idea; I especially like the idea of building a new Central Branch library as part of an overall Symphony Woods cultural complex.  Bottom line: I like the proposal, have signed the &lt;a href=&#34;https://www.change.org/petitions/columbia-association-board-of-directors-approve-the-inner-arbor-plan&#34;&gt;petition to support it&lt;/a&gt;, and encourage others to do so as well.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For the most part I’ve stayed out of the debate over the <a href="http://columbia.patch.com/articles/ca-dramatically-alters-plans-for-symphony-woods">“Inner Arbor” plan</a> proposed for consideration by the Columbia Association Board of Directors.  For the record, I think the idea of having an everyday “there there” in Symphony Woods (i.e., not just Merriweather Post Pavilion) is a good idea; I especially like the idea of building a new Central Branch library as part of an overall Symphony Woods cultural complex.  Bottom line: I like the proposal, have signed the <a href="https://www.change.org/petitions/columbia-association-board-of-directors-approve-the-inner-arbor-plan">petition to support it</a>, and encourage others to do so as well.</p>
<p>However I take partial exception to <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2013/01/no-little-plan.html">Wordbones’s declaration</a> that this proposal is an example of the dictum “make no little plans.”  At its heart the Inner Arbor plan basically involves constructing an office building, a couple of theaters, a parking garage, and some additional indoor and outdoor amenities.  It’s big in comparison to what was previously proposed for Symphony Woods, namely a fountain and a small cafe, but it’s fairly small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.</p>
<p>For an example of truly gonzo development ideas we have to leave present-day Columbia and go elsewhere, in particular to Detroit, the symbol of American urban decay and now the proposed location of the <a href="http://www.commonwealthofbelleisle.com/">Commonwealth of Belle Isle</a>.  Belle Isle is an island in the Detroit River currently used as an urban park; at 982 acres it is about 25 times the size of Symphony Woods and almost three times the size of the area covered by the <a href="http://www.columbiamd.com/plan/">Downtown Columbia plan</a>.  Like most of Detroit it’s fallen on hard times, and the city is trying to figure out what to do with it.  A local real estate developer, Rodney Lockwood, has <a href="http://www.freep.com/article/20130122/BUSINESS06/301220025/Utopian-Belle-Isle-vision-meets-skepticism-how-enclave-would-aid-Detroit-isn-t-clear">offered the city $1 billion</a> to buy the island and develop it.  And not just any old development either&mdash;Lockwood proposes to turn Belle Isle into a separate 35,000-person “commonwealth” within the United States, with its own independent (and relatively minimal) government, an almost total exemption from Federal taxes, separate citizenship requirements, and eventually its own currency, the Rand.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>As the name of the currency might have told you, the Commonwealth of Belle Isle is another in a string of proposed schemes to establish a libertarian society free of government meddling and dedicated to the principles of liberty and free enterprise&mdash;the successor to (among others) <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2012/07/31/death-of-a-sci-fi-dream-free-floating-space-colonies-hit-economic-reality/">space colonies</a>, <a href="http://reason.com/archives/2009/06/08/20000-nations-above-the-sea">seasteading</a>, and the <a href="http://freestateproject.org/">Free State Project</a>.  It also has connections with the <a href="http://chartercities.org/">Charter Cities</a> movement promoted by economist Paul Romer, which in turn was inspired by the real-life examples of city-states like Hong Kong and Singapore.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  And of course&mdash;though Lockwood goes to some lengths to deny it&mdash;the Commonwealth of Belle Isle could also function as an on-shore tax haven, the chilly equivalent of those sunny Caribbean islands where wealthy people <a href="http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/08/investigating-mitt-romney-offshore-accounts">park their assets</a> and US corporations establish shell entities to <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0dc00990-5be0-11e2-bef7-00144feab49a.html#axzz2JcPEOFRg">limit their overall corporate tax burden</a>.</p>
<p>An ambitious plan requires an ambitious approach to promote it.  The Columbia Association has provided us with a <a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/122612333/Columbia-Association-Inner-Arbor-Plan-Presentation">typical slide presentation</a>, while Lockwood has written a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Belle-Isle-ebook/dp/B00B7L4494/">158-page book</a> set 30 years in the future, as a former resident of Detroit returns to marvel at the transformation of Belle Isle and the consequent revitalization of the regional economy.  Admittedly it’s not high on drama or conflict; in one fairly typical conversation the two main characters discuss the fine points of Belle Isle’s real estate tax structure (a variant of 19th-century reformer Henry George’s “<a href="http://www.dollarsandsense.org/archives/2006/0306gluckman.html">single tax</a>”).  I doubt that Belle Isle the book will achieve the best-seller status of the works of Lockwood’s hero Ayn Rand.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>Lockwood’s book reminds me not so much of <em>Atlas Shrugged</em> or <em>The Fountainhead</em> but rather Edward Bellamy’s <em><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Looking_Backward">Looking Backward</a></em>, a 19th-century tract-disguised-as-fiction in which the protagonist goes to sleep in Boston in 1887 and wakes up in the year 2000 to find it transformed into a socialist paradise.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup>  Bellamy’s book was surprisingly popular; according to Wikipedia, “It was the third-largest bestseller of its time, after <em>Uncle Tom’s Cabin</em> and <em>Ben-Hur: A Tale of the Christ</em>.  . . .  In the United States alone, over 162 ‘Bellamy Clubs’ sprang up to discuss and propagate the book’s ideas.”</p>
<p>All forgotten now, of course, but not written in vain: The ideas of Bellamy and others eventually were toned down, adapted, and transmuted into the welfare-state capitalism of the New Deal and the Great Society, the milieu from which an idealistic real estate developer named James Rouse emerged bearing the dream of a place that would be “not a perfect city or a utopia, but rather an effort to simply develop a better city.”  I suspect the libertarian Belle Isle of 2043, like Bellamy’s socialist Boston of 2000, is a fantasy that is doomed to stay within the pages of a book.  But although I’ve been a bit snarky about the concept (though not nearly as snarky as <a href="http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/articles/3510/big_babbitt_is_watching_you_the_commonwealth_of_belle_isle_s_totalitarian_spirit" title="Big Babbitt Is Watching You, The Commonwealth Of Belle Isle’s Totalitarian Spirit">some</a>) I’m loath to dismiss or denigrate the spirit behind it.</p>
<p>I think we could use more experiments in urban living and governance, even somewhat oddball ones.  Columbia was a noble experiment, though I think ultimately a failed one: In an America in love with suburbia it inevitably assumed a fairly typical suburban character, and (as I’ve written <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/" title="Income inequality in Howard County, part 2">elsewhere</a>) its relative prosperity and socioeconomic equality is arguably less due to its founding ideals and more a function of its role as a bedroom community for an ever-growing Federal government presence in Maryland.</p>
<p>In a sense the Commonwealth of Belle Isle is a 21st century version of Columbia, projected through the lens of a free market ideology.  If any part of the Belle Isle vision comes to fruition it’s possible it will simply become a gated community for the 1% and their domestic servants (or “home managers” as the book has it), a supersized and urbanized version of <a href="http://www.gibsonisland.com/">Gibson Island</a>.  But who knows?  And if Belle Isle does turn out to be more than that perhaps it will hold lessons for the rest of us.  At some point in the future Columbia, Howard County, and Maryland may find that Uncle Sam doesn’t come round with presents as often as he used to.  In preparation for that day we need more and better ideas on how to promote private sector economic growth, and we shouldn’t be picky on where we look for them.  If an idea is a good one then who cares where we steal it from?</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.commonwealthofbelleisle.com/faq/">Commonwealth of Belle Isle FAQ</a>, individuals seeking to move to Belle Isle “will have to post a citizenship fee, which will probably be in the $300,000 range, plus have a working command of English.”  In comparison, the total wealth of the US median US household is around $60,000, with liquid assets much lower.  Although it’s not mentioned in the FAQ, Lockwood has separately proposed reserving 20% of the citizenship slots for non-wealthy but deserving applicants.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>I should note that Professor Romer’s main foray into real-world charter cities, a proposed venture in Honduras, didn’t go too well; see for example this <a href="http://reason.com/blog/2012/10/04/honduran-private-city-plan-shot-down-by" title="Honduran Private City Plan Shot Down by Its Supreme Court">blog post at Reason.com</a>.  However <a href="http://reason.com/blog/2013/01/25/honduran-free-city-plan-might-be-alive-a" title="Honduran ‘Free City’ Plan Might Be Alive Again">hope springs eternal</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>It may however be of interest to at least some Columbians: Just as the Columbia Association has been characterized as an over-grown homeowners association, the fictional government of the Commonwealth of Belle Isle resembles nothing so much as a CA on steroids, with its own police force, judiciary, tax system, and currency, but still concerned about the fine details of urban planning, down to the building materials used.  This can get a bit absurd sometimes: In the course of giving his friend a tour of Belle Isle one character remarks, “Concrete doesn’t meet our aesthetic test.  So we don’t allow any use of it.  . . .  In the Soviet era the Russians built the ugliest buildings in the world using primarily concrete.  So we figure communism and concrete are linked.  Not here!  In our free-market world, we go the other direction.”&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>I realize that some may think the real-life Boston of the year 2000 was a bastion of socialism (though no paradise).  All I can say to those folks is that they should read the works of Bellamy and others of that time to see the sort of system actual American socialists wanted to establish.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Calculating growth rates (for Howard County or otherwise), part 5</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2013/01/01/calculating-growth-rates-part-5/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 01 Jan 2013 22:33:56 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2013/01/01/calculating-growth-rates-part-5/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/31/calculating-growth-rates-part-4/&#34;&gt;part 4&lt;/a&gt; of this series I discussed the general problem of estimating growth rates for periods less than a year, and using Howard County’s population in the 21st century as an example calculated estimated monthly, week, daily, and even hourly growth rates for the county based on the Census population figures for 2000 and 2010.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The problem with those calculations is that it’s hard to get a sense for the relative magnitude of the growth rates.  For example, how much different is a growth rate of 0.12256% per month from a growth rate of 1.4807% per year? It would be nice to express the growth rates according to a common time period, just as (for example) we use “miles per hour” to refer to the speed of our cars even when we’re just driving 2 minutes to the grocery.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2012/12/31/calculating-growth-rates-part-4/">part 4</a> of this series I discussed the general problem of estimating growth rates for periods less than a year, and using Howard County’s population in the 21st century as an example calculated estimated monthly, week, daily, and even hourly growth rates for the county based on the Census population figures for 2000 and 2010.</p>
<p>The problem with those calculations is that it’s hard to get a sense for the relative magnitude of the growth rates.  For example, how much different is a growth rate of 0.12256% per month from a growth rate of 1.4807% per year? It would be nice to express the growth rates according to a common time period, just as (for example) we use “miles per hour” to refer to the speed of our cars even when we’re just driving 2 minutes to the grocery.</p>
<p>However we have to be careful about this, since a percentage increase that occurs (say) every hour on the hour leads to different results than a percentage increase that is conceived to occur but once a month or once a year.  (This is exactly what tripped me up when doing my original estimates of growth rates.)</p>
<p>The solution is to multiply the various rates appropriately to express them as an annual rate, but then to qualify the result by referencing the period over which the growth is assumed to occur.  The standard way to do this is to speak of growth being “compounded” at particular intervals.  For example, we can take the monthly growth rate of 0.12256% estimated in part 4, multiply it by 12 (the number of months in a year), and express it as an annual growth rate of 1.4707% “compounded monthly.”  The following table does this for all the growth rates I calculated in part 4:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Period</th>
          <th>Per-period growth rate</th>
          <th>Annual growth rate (with compounding)</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>Decade</td>
          <td>15.384%</td>
          <td>1.5384% (compounded per decade)</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Year</td>
          <td>1.4807%</td>
          <td>1.4807% (compounded yearly)</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Month</td>
          <td>0.12256%</td>
          <td>1.4707% (compounded monthly)</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Week</td>
          <td>0.028271%</td>
          <td>1.4701% (compounded weekly)</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Day</td>
          <td>0.0040271%</td>
          <td>1.4699% (compounded daily)</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Hour</td>
          <td>0.00016779%</td>
          <td>1.4698% (compounded hourly)</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>There are several points worth noting here.  First, the idea of compounding in this context is exactly the same as that used in financial calculations: For example, if you have a savings account, your bank will periodically credit you with whatever interest you’ve earned on the money in your account; this is the compounding period.</p>
<p>Second, as compounding periods get shorter the same amount of growth can be produced with a lower nominal rate: In our example a 1.4698% rate compounded hourly produced the same growth over a decade as a 1.4807% rate compounded yearly.  Or to put it another way, in a financial context you are better off having a shorter compounding period for a given nominal rate: If the rate on your savings account is nominally 2% per year then you are better off with daily compounding than with monthly.</p>
<p>However there is a limit to how much shorter compounding can affect growth: In the table above moving from yearly to monthly compounding reduced the needed growth rate from 1.4807% to 1.4707%, a difference of 0.01%, but moving from monthly to weekly compounding reduced it only to 1.4701%, a difference of 0.0006%.</p>
<p>As compounding periods get shorter and shorter (per minute, per second, and so on), it appears as if the estimated growth rate will reach some sort of limit, around 1.4698% or 1.4699% in our example. We can refer to this as an annual growth rate compounded continuously or, more simply, as a continuous growth rate.  A continuous growth rate isn’t that applicable to your savings account (since your bank isn’t going to credit you with new interest earned every nanosecond) or even to Howard County’s population (since it doesn’t grow every nanosecond either, and you can’t add fractional people like you can fractional dollars).</p>
<p>However continuous or near-continuous growth is very common in nature: Think of bacteria multiplying in a fresh petri dish or (more ominously) in your body after you’re infected with something.  The mathematics of continuous growth is also simpler and more elegant than that used for growth compounded on a periodic basis.  For example, to compute a continuous growth rate for our Howard County population example I don’t need to do calculations for compounding per minute, per second, and so on in order to find the limit.  I can do a quick calculation on my iPhone and tell you that the continuous growth rate in our example is 1.4698689% expressed to 8 significant figures.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>How did I do that? If anyone out there is still reading and (more important) if I can find a good way to explain it, I’ll address that question in a possible part 6.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Note that this is higher than the figure of 1.4698% we calculated for hourly compounding, when we would expect the limit to be slightly smaller.  As it turns out we’re the victims of rounding in computing the growth rate per hour; expressed to 8 digits the estimated hourly growth rate is actually 0.00016779340%, which corresponds to an annual rate of 1.4698701% compounded hourly, slightly larger than the continuous growth rate of 1.4698689%.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Calculating growth rates (for Howard County or otherwise), part 4</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/31/calculating-growth-rates-part-4/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 31 Dec 2012 21:03:08 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/31/calculating-growth-rates-part-4/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/30/calculating-growth-rates-part-3/&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt; of this series I recapped the method derived in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/16/calculating-growth-rates-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt; for estimating growth rates (using Howard County’s population in the 21st century as an example) and discussed how to use such estimates to project growth in future years.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Now let’s go back to a question I asked at the end of part 2: Can we calculate a more accurate estimate for the growth rate? We can begin exploring this question by going back to my original inaccurate estimate in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/09/calculating-growth-rates-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and considering where I went wrong.  To get that estimate I simply took the final population in 2010, divided it by the initial population in 2000, then divided that by 10 to get an annual growth rate (which I then converted to a percentage value).  That initial estimate was too high: When I used that value to estimate the population in 2001, 2002, and so on, it produced a final population estimate for 2010 that was well in excess of the actual 2010 population.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2012/12/30/calculating-growth-rates-part-3/">part 3</a> of this series I recapped the method derived in <a href="/2012/12/16/calculating-growth-rates-part-2/">part 2</a> for estimating growth rates (using Howard County’s population in the 21st century as an example) and discussed how to use such estimates to project growth in future years.</p>
<p>Now let’s go back to a question I asked at the end of part 2: Can we calculate a more accurate estimate for the growth rate? We can begin exploring this question by going back to my original inaccurate estimate in <a href="/2012/12/09/calculating-growth-rates-part-1/">part 1</a> and considering where I went wrong.  To get that estimate I simply took the final population in 2010, divided it by the initial population in 2000, then divided that by 10 to get an annual growth rate (which I then converted to a percentage value).  That initial estimate was too high: When I used that value to estimate the population in 2001, 2002, and so on, it produced a final population estimate for 2010 that was well in excess of the actual 2010 population.</p>
<p>In making my original estimate I saw that the population in 2010 was 15.834% higher than the population in 2000.  The additional population didn’t get added all at once; some population growth occurred in each of the 10 years.  I tried to account for that ongoing growth by dividing 15.384% by 10 and assuming 1.5384% growth per year.  But that corresponded to adding 1.5384% of the <em>2000</em> population each year, and that was my mistake.  In actuality an annual growth rate as applied to (say) estimating the 2006 population produces a percentage increase relative to the <em>2005</em> population, <em>not</em> the 2000 population.</p>
<p>The 2005 population was larger than the 2000 population because it reflected population growth in the years since 2000.  Thus using our initial estimated growth rate of 1.5384% (based on a percentage of the 2000 population) produced too high an estimate of the population growth when we computed population growth year by year (and as part of that process applied that growth rate to the 2005 population).  Or, to put it another way, a smaller growth rate than 1.5384% was able to produce 15.384% growth from 2000 to 2010 when applied on a year-by-year basis.  In fact, a growth rate of about 1.4807% (vs. 1.5384%) is sufficient to produce 15.384% growth over the 10-year period, as I showed in part 2.</p>
<p>Let’s now turn to a new but (as we’ll see) related question: What if instead of projecting population growth on a year-by-year basis, we wanted to project it on a month-to-month basis? For example,  the 2010 population figure of 287,085 was for April of that year (actually April 1).  How could we project the population in May 2010, June 2010, and so on? Could we simply divide our estimated annual growth rate of 1.4807% by 12 to calculate a monthly growth rate?</p>
<p>Based on the discussion above, we should suspect the answer is no. Let’s work out the numbers though just to be sure: We divide 1.4807% by 12 to obtain an initial estimate of 0.12339% growth per month. Using this estimate the population for May 2010 (i.e., on May 1) would be 287,085 times 1.0012339 (converting 0.12339% to non-percentage form and adding 1), or 287,439.  Per our discussion in part 3, the population for April 2011 (12 months later) would be 287,085 times 1.0012339 raised to the 12th power, which equals 287,085 times 1.014908, or 291,365.</p>
<p>But wait: according to our estimated annual growth rate of 1.4807% the population for April 2011 (1 year later) should be 287,085 times 1.014807 or 291,336.  It’s not a big difference (29 people), but it’s still significant.  Again our initial estimated growth rate produced estimated population figures that are too high, and for a similar reason as previously: Our estimated monthly growth rate assumed that for each month we’re adding a given percentage of the population as of April 2010, but in actuality the increase in each month is based on the prior month’s population, which in our example is always higher that that (since we’re making estimates for later in 2010 and 2011).</p>
<p>How can we get a better estimate? We simply go back to our approach in part 2 for computing a growth rate using the actual Census population figures for 2000 and 2010, this time computing everything on a monthly (rather than yearly) basis:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<ol>
<li>We again start by dividing the population in (April) 2010 by the population in (April) 2000.  This gives 287,085 divided by 247,842, or 1.158339.</li>
<li>Since there are 120 months between the starting and ending population figures, this time we take the 120th root of the result from step 1 to find the growth factor.  The 120th root of 1.158339 is 1.0012256.</li>
<li>Again we subtract 1 from the growth factor to find the growth rate, which this time is a monthly growth rate.  This gives 1.0012256 minus 1, or 0.0012256.</li>
<li>Again we multiply the growth rate by 100 to convert it into percentage form.  This gives 100 times 0.0012256, or 0.12256% per month.</li>
</ol>
<p>So the more correct estimate for a monthly growth rate is 0.12256% instead of 0.12339%.</p>
<p>Can we go further, and estimate weekly growth rates or even daily growth rates? Of course we can: It’s simply a matter of finding the number of time periods (days, weeks, months, or years) between the initial and final populations, and then using that number when we take the root in step 3 of our general method.</p>
<p>The results are shown in the following table, each expressed to 5 significant figures; just for fun I’ve added entries for a growth rate per decade and growth rate per hour.  As an example, the daily growth rate is computed by dividing the population on April 1, 2010 (287,085) by the population on April 1, 2000 (247,842), taking the 3650th root of the result to get the daily growth factor (since there are 10 years of 365 days each), subtracting 1 to get the daily growth rate, and then multiplying by 100 to put the daily growth rate in percentage terms.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Growth Rate Period</th>
          <th>Number of periods</th>
          <th>Estimated Growth Rate</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>Decade</td>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>15.384%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Year</td>
          <td>10</td>
          <td>1.4807%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Month</td>
          <td>120</td>
          <td>0.12256%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Week</td>
          <td>520</td>
          <td>0.028271%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Day</td>
          <td>3,650</td>
          <td>0.0040271%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Hour</td>
          <td>87,600</td>
          <td>0.00016779%</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>The above is all well and good, but the way the growth rates are expressed makes it hard to compare them.  What would be nice would be to express all rates as annual rates, just as (for example) we talk of driving 50 miles per hour whether our trip lasts for 2 minutes, 2 hours, or 2 days.  However we’ve seen enough thus far to know we have to be careful in how we do this, and since this post is long enough as it is I’ll postpone discussion of this topic until part 5.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I’m implicitly assuming that each month has equal length.  This is not true (at 31 days the month of January is more than 10% longer than February in non-leap years), but it doesn’t affect my overall argument.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>For simplicity I’ve assumed that each year is exactly 52 weeks (actually a year is about 52.1 weeks), and that there are no leap years (actually there was an extra day in both 2004 and 2008).  Correcting these would change the weekly, daily, and hourly growth rates very slightly.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Calculating growth rates (for Howard County or otherwise), part 3</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/30/calculating-growth-rates-part-3/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 30 Dec 2012 18:56:09 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/30/calculating-growth-rates-part-3/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/16/calculating-growth-rates-part-2/&#34; title=&#34;Calculating growth rates (for Howard County or otherwise), part 2&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt; of this series I discussed a more correct approach to the problem of estimating growth rates, using Howard County’s population in the 21st century as an example.  Given the population figures for the 2000 and 2010 censuses, we can estimate an annual growth rate as follows:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ol&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Divide the final population in 2010 by the initial population in 2000.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Take the 10th root of the result from step 1 to find the growth factor.  (We use 10 because the period we’re considering is 10 years long.)&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Subtract 1 from the growth factor to find the growth rate.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Multiply the growth rate by 100 to convert it into percentage form.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ol&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Recall that you can take roots using a scientific calculator app for your smartphone, tablet, or PC, as described in the last post; you can also compute roots in a application like Microsoft Excel or Google Spreadsheets.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2012/12/16/calculating-growth-rates-part-2/" title="Calculating growth rates (for Howard County or otherwise), part 2">part 2</a> of this series I discussed a more correct approach to the problem of estimating growth rates, using Howard County’s population in the 21st century as an example.  Given the population figures for the 2000 and 2010 censuses, we can estimate an annual growth rate as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>Divide the final population in 2010 by the initial population in 2000.</li>
<li>Take the 10th root of the result from step 1 to find the growth factor.  (We use 10 because the period we’re considering is 10 years long.)</li>
<li>Subtract 1 from the growth factor to find the growth rate.</li>
<li>Multiply the growth rate by 100 to convert it into percentage form.</li>
</ol>
<p>Recall that you can take roots using a scientific calculator app for your smartphone, tablet, or PC, as described in the last post; you can also compute roots in a application like Microsoft Excel or Google Spreadsheets.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Using the technique above I estimated the growth rate of Howard County from 2000 to 2010 as 1.4807% per year, or 0.014807 in non-percentage form.  I then asked how we could estimate the future population of Howard County, say in 2020.</p>
<p>One approach to do this is similar to how we computed estimated populations from 2001 through 2009: We could add 1 to the non-percentage form of the growth rate to get the growth factor, and then multiply the growth factor by the Census population in 2010 to get an estimated population for 2011.  We could then multiply the estimated 2011 population by the growth factor to get an estimated population for 2012, multiply that value again by the growth factor to get an estimate for 2013, and continue year by year until after ten multiplications we had an estimate for 2020.</p>
<p>However we can simplify this calculation as follows: Since we started with the population in 2010, multiplied by the growth factor each time, and estimated the population for 10 years out (2011 through 2020), this is the same as raising the growth factor to the power of 10 and then multiplying the resulting value by the population in 2010.  But do we still have to compute the 10th power of the growth factor by doing all the multiplications ourselves?</p>
<p>THe answer is no.  Just as the scientific calculator app on your iPhone or other device can compute roots for you, it can also compute powers.  Let’s try it out: Suppose we want to find the value of 5 raised to the 4th power (in other words, 5 times 5 times 5 times 5).  On the iPhone’s calculator we enter 5, press the “y to the x-th power” key, enter 4, then press the “=” key.  The answer should be 625, since 5 to the 4th power is 625.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>We can now try the suggested approach to estimating Howard County population in 2020, given our estimated annual growth rate:</p>
<ol>
<li>Divide the growth rate by 100 to convert it into non-percentage form.  This gives us 1.4807% divided by 100, or 0.014807.</li>
<li>Add 1 to the growth rate to find the growth factor.  This gives us 1 plus 0.014807 or 1.014807.</li>
<li>Compute the growth factor raised to the power of 10.  (We use 10 because we’re estimating the population in 2020, 10 years after 2010.)  In our scientific calculator app we enter 1.014807, press the “y to the x-th power” key, enter 10, then press the “=” key; the result is 1.158336.</li>
<li>Multiply the population in 2010 by the value just computed.  This gives us 287,085 times 1.158336 or 332,541 for the estimated population in 2020.</li>
</ol>
<p>Note that we could actually bypassed this computation by noting that if the population grew by 15.84% in the 10 years from 2000 to 2010 (as noted in part 1) and the growth rate didn’t change, we’d expect the population to grow another 15.84% in the next 10 years from 2010 to 2020.  This is exactly what we found in the computation above: We calculated the population in 2020 as 1.158336 times the population in 2010, which corresponds to a percentage increase over 10 years of 15.834% (rounding off to five significant digits).</p>
<p>However what if we had an interval that wasn’t a multiple of 10?  For example, what if we want to estimate the Howard County population in 2035?  Assuming we use the 2010 population as our starting point we need to calculate the 25th power of the growth factor 1.014807: Enter 1.014807, press the “y to the x-th power” key, enter 25, then press the “=” key; the result is 1.444064.  Multiplying this by the 2010 population of 287,085 gives us 414,569 for the estimated population in 2035.</p>
<p>So far so good.  In my next post I’ll go back and explore further how I got my initial estimate in part 1 so wrong, as a prelude to discussing growth rates in a financial context and how to obtain better estimates of growth rates.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Microsoft Excel has a built-in function SQRT to take square roots, but uses more cryptic formulas for taking higher roots.  In our example we had to take the 10th root of 1.158339; in Excel this would be expressed with either of the formulas “=POWER(1.158339,1/10)” or “=1.158339^(1/10).”  In general if we have values in two spreadsheet cells A1 and A2 then either of the formulas “=POWER(A1,1/A2)” or “=A1^(1/A2)” would take the A2-th root of A1. (These formulas will also work in Google Spreadsheets.  To avoid a lengthy digression I’ll skip for now any explanation of why these formulas are written the way they are.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>In Microsoft Excel or Google Spreadsheets the equivalent operation of computing 5 to the power of 4 can be done using either of the formulas  “=POWER(5, 4)” or “=5^4.”  In general if we have values in two spreadsheet cells A1 and A2 then either of the formulas “=POWER(A1,A2)” or “=A1^A2” would produce A1 raised to the A2-th power.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Calculating growth rates (for Howard County or otherwise), part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/16/calculating-growth-rates-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 16 Dec 2012 05:13:30 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/16/calculating-growth-rates-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/09/calculating-growth-rates-part-1/&#34;&gt;last post&lt;/a&gt; I introduced the problem of estimating growth rates, using Howard County’s population in the 21st century as an example.  I took a simpleminded approach:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ol&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Take the difference between the county’s population in 2010 and 2000.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Divide that difference by the population in 2000 and multiply by 100 to get the percentage growth increase from 2000 to 2010.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Divide that percentage by 10 to get an estimate of the population growth per year.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ol&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As we saw in the last post, the simpleminded approach produces an incorrect answer: the estimated growth rate is too large.  In this post I’ll show a more correct way to estimate the growth rate.  As before, I’ll avoid mathematical notation and restrict myself to operations you can do on a calculator or in a program like Microsoft Excel or Google Spreadsheets.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my <a href="/2012/12/09/calculating-growth-rates-part-1/">last post</a> I introduced the problem of estimating growth rates, using Howard County’s population in the 21st century as an example.  I took a simpleminded approach:</p>
<ol>
<li>Take the difference between the county’s population in 2010 and 2000.</li>
<li>Divide that difference by the population in 2000 and multiply by 100 to get the percentage growth increase from 2000 to 2010.</li>
<li>Divide that percentage by 10 to get an estimate of the population growth per year.</li>
</ol>
<p>As we saw in the last post, the simpleminded approach produces an incorrect answer: the estimated growth rate is too large.  In this post I’ll show a more correct way to estimate the growth rate.  As before, I’ll avoid mathematical notation and restrict myself to operations you can do on a calculator or in a program like Microsoft Excel or Google Spreadsheets.</p>
<p>The key to finding a better approach is to look at the method we used to prove the simpleminded approach incorrect: taking the supposed growth rate, estimating year by year what growth it would produce, and then comparing it to the actual final population figure.  The twist this time is to assume that we don’t know the growth rate initially, and instead use the method to estimate it.  So, we start with the population of Howard County in 2000 (247,842), and we then look at how populations in 2001, 2002, and so on, would be calculated for a given growth rate:</p>
<ol>
<li>We assume that the (as yet unknown) growth rate is expressed in the non-percentage form.  (For example, we’d express a 5% growth rate as 0.05.)</li>
<li>To get the population in 2001 we add 1 to the (non-percentage) growth rate and then multiply that value times the initial population in 2000.  To save some words we’ll refer to the sum of 1 plus the growth rate as the growth factor.  (For example, if the growth rate were 5% or 0.05 then the growth factor would be 1.05.)  Another way to express this is that the population in 2001 is calculated as the population in 2000 times the growth factor.</li>
<li>To get the population in 2002 we multiply the population previously calculated for 2001 by the growth factor.  But wait: The population in 2001 was in turn calculated as the 2000 population times the growth factor.  So another way to calculate the 2002 population is to multiply the population of 2000 by the growth factor (which gives us the 2001 population), and then to multiply by the growth factor again.  The result is that the 2002 population is calculated as the 2000 population times the growth factor times the growth factor.</li>
</ol>
<p>This is a key point, so let’s stop here and look at an example.  If the growth rate were actually 5% then the growth factor would be 1.05. The 2001 population would then be 247,842 times 1.05 or 260,234, and the 2002 population would be 260,234 times 1.05 or 273,246.  We could get the same answer by multiplying 1.05 by 1.05 to get 1.1025, and then multiplying 1.1025 times 247,842 to get 273,246.</p>
<p>Now let’s continue:</p>
<ol start="4">
<li>The population in 2003 is calculated as the population in 2002 times the growth factor.  Since we can calculate the population in 2002 as the population in 2000 times the growth factor multiplied by itself (growth factor times growth factor), we can calculate the population in 2003 as the population in 2000 times the growth factor multiplied by itself and then multiplied again by itself again.  In other words, we calculate the 2003 population as the 2000 population times the growth factor times the growth factor times the growth factor.</li>
<li>The population in 2004 is calculated as the population in 2003 times the growth factor.  Following from the previous item we can calculate the population in 2004 as the population in 2000 times the growth factor times the growth factor times the growth factor times the growth factor.</li>
</ol>
<p>Let’s stop again here to introduce some new terminology: You may know that the product of the growth factor times itself (growth factor times growth factor) is referred to as the square of the growth factor, and that the growth factor times the growth factor times the growth factor is referred to as the cube of the growth factor.  What do we call the value calculated as the growth factor times the growth factor times the growth factor times the growth factor (i.e., where the growth factor appears four times in the product)?</p>
<p>The standard term is for this value is the growth factor raised to the power of 4 or (less verbosely) the 4th power of the growth factor, because in calculating the product the growth factor appears four times.  As an example, if the growth factor is 1.05 then the 4th power of the growth factor would be 1.05 times 1.05 times 1.05 times 1.05, or 1.2155 (to five significant digits).  Continuing on . . .</p>
<ol start="6">
<li>We can now rephrase how we estimate the 2004 population: It’s calculated as the 2000 population times the 4th power of the growth factor.</li>
<li>The population in 2005 is then the 2004 population times the growth factor, or equivalently the 2000 population times the 4th power of the growth factor, times the growth factor again.  How do we express the product of the 4th power of the growth factor and the growth factor itself? In this product the growth factor appears 5 times (4 times from the 4th power and one time when multiplying by the growth factor once more), so we refer to it as the 5th power of the growth factor.  The 2005 population is thus the 2000 population times the 5th power of the growth factor.</li>
<li>The 2006 population is then the 2005 population times the growth factor, which is equal to the 2000 population times the 5th power of the growth factor, times the growth factor again, which is equal to the 2000 population times the 6th power of the growth factor.</li>
<li>The 2007 population is then the 2006 population times the growth factor, which is equal to the 2000 population times the 7th power of the growth factor.</li>
<li>Do you see the pattern here? The 2007 population is equal to the 2000 population times the 7th power of the growth factor.  The 2008 population is equal to the 2000 population times the 8th power of the growth factor.  Finally, the 2009 population is equal to the 2000 population times the 9th power of the growth factor.</li>
</ol>
<p>We now come to 2010.  On the one hand, we can calculate the population in 2010 as the population in 2000 times the 10th power of the growth factor.  On the other hand, we actually know the population in 2010. If we get the growth rate (and thus the growth factor) correct then those two numbers should be the same.</p>
<p>In particular, we can plug in the population values for 2000 (247,842) and 2010 (287,085) and see that 287,085 should equal 247,842 times the 10th power of the growth factor.  This in turn means that the 10th power of the growth factor should be equal to 287,085 divided by 247,842, or 1.158339 (to seven significant digits).  We now know what the 10th power of the growth factor is.  How do we calculate the growth factor itself?</p>
<p>The short answer is that we do what’s called “taking a root.”  What is a root? Some examples: We know that 5 times 5 is 25, so we refer to 25 as 5 squared; alternatively we could say that 5 is the “square root” of 25.  Similarly, 5 times 5 times 5 is 125, so 125 is 5 cubed and 5 is the cube root of 125.  Finally, 5 times 5 times 5 times 5 is 625, so 625 is the 4th power of 5 and 5 is the 4th root of 625.  In other words, taking a power and taking a root are inverse operations: If one number is (say) the 10th power of a second number then the second number is the 10th root of the first.</p>
<figure><a href="https://osxdaily.com/2011/12/29/iphone-scientific-calculator/">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/scientific-calculator-iphone.jpg"
         alt="Picture of iPhone scientific calculator"/> </a><figcaption>
            <p>iPhone scientific calculator</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>In this case the 10th power of the growth factor is 1.158339, so the growth factor is the 10th root of 1.158339.  How do we find this value? We use a calculator or a computer.  For example, the standard calculator app on an iPhone can be turned into a so-called “scientific calculator” by turning the phone on its side (like you would do when watching a YouTube video).  On the left are keys for special functions, among which is one to take the xth root of a number y.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<figure>
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/scientific-calculator-iphone-root.png"
         alt="Picture of x-root-y key on iPhone scientific calculator"/> <figcaption>
            <p>Take the xth root of y</p>
        </figcaption>
</figure>

<p>Let’s try it out: Suppose we want to find the 4th root of 625.  On the iPhone’s calculator we enter 625, press the “xth root of y” key (pictured), enter 4, then press the “=” key.  The answer should be 5, since 5 to the 4th power is 625.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Now we’re almost there.  The growth factor is the 10th root of 1.158339, which our calculator tells us is 1.014807.  (On the iPhone’s calculator enter 1.158339, press the “xth root of y” key, enter 10, then press the “=” key.)  Recall that the growth factor is 1 plus the growth rate, so the growth rate is 1 minus the growth factor, or 0.014807.  Multiplying by 100 to convert this into a percentage, the estimated growth for Howard County’s population from 2000 to 2010 is 1.4807% per year.</p>
<p>Before we go on, we can summarize this new method for calculating the growth rate as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>Divide the population in 2010 by the population in 2000.  This gives 287,085 divided by 247,842, or 1.158339.</li>
<li>Take the 10th root of the result from step 1 to find the growth factor.  The 10th root of 1.158339 is 1.014807.</li>
<li>Subtract 1 from the growth factor to find the growth rate.  This gives 1 minus 1.014807, or 0.014807.</li>
<li>Multiply the growth rate by 100 to convert it into percentage form. This gives 100 times 0.014807, or 1.4807%.</li>
</ol>
<p>We can check this estimate as we did before, by calculating the estimated populations from 2001 to 2009, multiplying the previous year’s population by the growth factor each time:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Year</th>
          <th>Population (Actual)</th>
          <th>Population (Estimated)</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>2000</td>
          <td>247,842</td>
          <td></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2001</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>251,512</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2002</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>255,236</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2003</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>259,015</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2004</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>262,850</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2005</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>266,742</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2006</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>270,692</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2007</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>274,700</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2008</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>278,767</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2009</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>282,895</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2010</td>
          <td>287,085</td>
          <td></td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>As the final step we calculate an estimated population for 2010 using the method we used in computing the values for 2001 and 2009: We take 282,895 (the estimated value for 2009) and multiply it by 1.014807. The result is an estimate of 287,084 for the population in 2010, within 1 of the actual value of 287,085.  (This difference is due to rounding error.)</p>
<p>Unlike the previous method from <a href="/2012/12/09/calculating-growth-rates-part-1/">part 1</a>, this new method produces a good estimate for the growth rate.  Can we project future Howard County population using this estimate?  Can we use this method of estimating growth rates in other contexts, for example in financial calculations?  And can we produce an even better estimate?  I’ll answer these questions in part 3.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Corrected the values in step 4 of the new method (changed 1.014807 to 0.014807) and in the computation of the estimated population for 2010 (changed 287,083 to 287,084).</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I’ve never owned an Android smartphone or tablet, so I don’t know if Android devices typically have a similar scientific calculator app built in.  However I suspect there are plenty of scientific calculator apps, including some free ones, in the app store for whatever smartphone or tablet you have.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>You may have noticed a key to the left of the “xth root of y” key that has a similar symbol but no “x” or “y.”  This is the square root key.  For example, if you enter 25 and then press the square root key you’ll get the answer 5, the square root of 25.  This is exactly the same as entering 25, pressing the “xth root of y” key, entering 2, and pressing the “=” key.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Calculating growth rates (for Howard County or otherwise), part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/09/calculating-growth-rates-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 09 Dec 2012 23:55:03 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/09/calculating-growth-rates-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;[I’m interrupting my series of “weekend reading” posts to bring you an actual blog post.]&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Last week at work one of my tasks was estimating growth rates for a particular quantity (never mind exactly what).  I found that doing this was not exactly trivial, as there are multiple ways to calculate growth rates, some of them more mathematically complicated than others.  I think I now understand how this all works, and to test my understanding I’m going to try to explain it here.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>[I’m interrupting my series of “weekend reading” posts to bring you an actual blog post.]</em></p>
<p>Last week at work one of my tasks was estimating growth rates for a particular quantity (never mind exactly what).  I found that doing this was not exactly trivial, as there are multiple ways to calculate growth rates, some of them more mathematically complicated than others.  I think I now understand how this all works, and to test my understanding I’m going to try to explain it here.</p>
<p>If you ever have to deal with growth rates in your own life (and remember, they come up a lot in financial matters) this may be useful to you as well.  To make things simpler I’ll avoid mathematical notation and restrict myself to operations you can do on a calculator or in a program like Microsoft Excel or Google Spreadsheets.</p>
<p>As a local example of the problem, let’s try to calculate the rate of growth of Howard County’s population from 2000 to 2010.  (Perhaps we’re interested in forecasting future population growth, or we’re just curious about the rate of past growth.)  Here are the two numbers we’ll start with, the total population of Howard County as counted in the 2000 and 2010 censuses:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Year</th>
          <th>Population</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>2000</td>
          <td>247,842</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2010</td>
          <td>287,085</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>We’ll start with the simplest calculation possible; feel free to follow along using your own calculator:</p>
<ol>
<li>Take the difference between the final population in 2010 and the initial population in 2000. This difference is 287,085 minus 247,842, or 39,243.</li>
<li>Divide this difference by the initial population.  This gives us 39,243 divided by 247,842, or 0.15834 (rounded off to five significant digits).</li>
<li>Express this value as a percentage of the initial population by multiplying it by 100.  This gives us 100 times 0.15834 or 15.834. So the population of Howard County increased 15.834% from 2000 to 2010.</li>
<li>Finally, divide the percentage increase from 2000 to 2010 by 10, to calculate an estimated growth rate per year.  This gives us 15.834% divided by 10 or 1.5834%, our first (but not last!) estimated annual growth rate for Howard County’s population during the decade.</li>
</ol>
<p>So we’re done, right?  Not so fast!  Let’s check this estimate by calculating estimated populations for Howard County for 2001 through 2009.  For example, if the true annual growth rate is 1.5834%, then from 2000 to 2001 Howard County should have added a total number of people equal to 1.5834% of 247,842.  We can estimate the population in 2001 as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>Convert the growth rate expressed as a percentage into the non-percentage form, by dividing it by 100.  This gives us 1.5834 divided by 100 or 0.015834.</li>
<li>Multiply the (non-percentage) growth rate times the initial population in 2000.  This gives us 0.015834 times 247,842 or 3,924 (rounding to a whole number) for the estimated number of people added to the population from 2000 to 2001.</li>
<li>Add the number of people added from 2000 to 2001 to the initial population in 2000.  This gives us 3,924 plus 247,842 or 251,766.</li>
</ol>
<p>Before we go on to estimate the population for the other years, note that we can simplify the computation above: In step 2 we’re calculating 0.015834 times 247,842, and in step 3 we’re adding to it 1 times 247,842.  Since we’re multiplying by 247,842 in both steps, we can factor it out and just multiply 247,842 by the sum of 0.015834 plus 1, or 1.015834.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>The calculation above then becomes the following (again, feel free to follow along at home):</p>
<ol>
<li>Convert the growth rate expressed as a percentage into the non-percentage form, by dividing it by 100.  This gives us 1.5834 divided by 100 or 0.015834.</li>
<li>Add 1 to the (non-percentage) growth rate, and then multiply that value times the initial population in 2000.  This gives us 1.015834 times 247,842 or 251,766 for the estimated population in 2001 (again, rounding down to a whole number).</li>
</ol>
<p>Now that we have an estimated population for 2001, we can calculate the estimated population for 2002 by following the steps above and just substituting 251,766 as our initial population in 2001.  This gives us 1.015834 times 251,766 or 255,752 for the estimated population in 2002.  We can continue doing this for the other years; the general process is as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>Start with the initial population in 2000 (247,842) and the estimated growth rate (1.5384% per year, or 0.015384 in non-percentage form).</li>
<li>For each year from 2001 to 2009, multiply the previous year’s population by the sum of 1 plus the (non-percentage) growth rate, or 1.015384 in our example.</li>
</ol>
<p>Doing this gives us the following table; I’ve included the actual initial and final populations in 2000 and 2010 for comparison:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Year</th>
          <th>Population (Actual)</th>
          <th>Population (Estimated)</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>2000</td>
          <td>247,842</td>
          <td></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2001</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>251,766</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2002</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>255,752</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2003</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>259,802</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2004</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>263,916</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2005</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>268,095</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2006</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>272,340</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2007</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>276,652</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2008</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>281,033</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2009</td>
          <td></td>
          <td>285,483</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2010</td>
          <td>287,085</td>
          <td></td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>So far so good.  Now let’s do one final step and calculate an estimated population for 2010 using the method we used in computing the values for 2001 and 2009: We take 285,483 (the value for 2009) and multiply it by 1.015834.  The result is an estimate of 290,005 for the population in 2010.</p>
<p>But wait&mdash;this seems way too high.  The actual population in 2010 was 285,075 or almost five thousand less than our estimate.  Maybe we shouldn’t have rounded off the estimated growth rate and the estimated populations we used in the calculations? No, if you do the calculations without rounding then the estimated 2010 population is almost exactly the same.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>We have to conclude that we’ve overestimated the growth rate, and that the actual growth rate is somewhat less than 1.5834%.  How can we produce a better estimate?  I’ll take up that question in part 2.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="b2f4c92a-002"><a href="http://twitter.com/howardjp" title="howardjp@twitter.example.com">James Howard (@howardjp)</a> - 2012-12-10 13:16</h4>
<p>It seems to me, at the local level, population growth would be well-modeled with a population with limits formula, like the ecological models for fish in a pond. Or is that where this is going?</p>
<h4 id="b2f4c92a-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-12-11 02:26</h4>
<p>Actually, for purposes of this series I was assuming simple exponential growth; my main intent was to explore estimating growth rates first for annual compounding and then for a continuous growth curve. However you bring up a good point. In the previous post I did about Howard County population growth from 1950 to 2009 there&rsquo;s a nice-looking S-shape curve that looks as if it could be fitted nicely using logistic regression techniques in R or otherwise.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Population figures are taken from the “Total Population” value in the “Profile of General Demographic Characteristics” for Howard County, Maryland for <a href="http://factfinder2.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/DEC/00_SF1/DP1/0500000US24027">2000</a> and <a href="http://factfinder2.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/DEC/10_DP/DPDP1/0500000US24027">2010</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>This is a application of what they teach in elementary school as the distributive law of arithmetic.  For example, if you multiply 5 times the sum of 3 plus 7 that’s the same as multiplying 5 times 3 and adding it to 5 times 7, and vice versa.  (3 plus 7 is 10, and 5 times 10 is 50.  Similarly, 5 times 3 is 15, 5 times 7 is 35, and the sum is again 50.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>More specifically, when I used the full precision of my calculator the estimated population for 2010 was 290,003, a difference of only 2 from the estimate above.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Weekend reading: Family ties from the Shipleys to Sasquatch</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/01/weekend-reading-family-ties/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 01 Dec 2012 10:37:17 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/12/01/weekend-reading-family-ties/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This week my theme is the search for one’s ancestors and the surprising places it can take us:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://archive.org/details/foundersofannear00warf&#34;&gt;The founders of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, Maryland&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt; (Joshua Dorsey Warfield).  Have you ever wondered about the people whose names are reflected in local places (Scaggsville), roads (Snowden River Parkway), and neighborhoods (Shipley’s Grant)?  This is one of the (if not the) ur-texts of genealogy in Howard County: “At the beginning of this new century we are going to the garrets, bringing out the portraits of our forefathers, brushing off the dust,&amp;mdash;putting them into new frames and handing them down to our children.  Search the records for their good deeds.” See also the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hcgsmd.org/&#34;&gt;Howard County Genealogical Society&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.pbs.org/wnet/finding-your-roots/&#34;&gt;Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates, Jr.&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt; (PBS).  Genealogy gets the reality show treatment, complete with the requisite dramatic reveals at the conclusion of each episode: “Working closely with leading US genealogists . . . and ancestry experts from around the world, Gates and his production team comb through family stories to discover unknown histories and relatives the guests never knew existed.  When paper trails end for each story, the team turns to top geneticists and DNA diagnosticians . . . to analyze each participant’s genetic code, tracing their bloodlines and occasionally debunking their long-held notions and beliefs.” You can view all the episodes online; I watched the one with Cory Booker and John Lewis, which has an especially moving narrative involving Lewis’s ancestors.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;“&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.geni.com/blog/dna-testing-for-genealogy-getting-started-part-one-375984.html&#34;&gt;DNA Testing for Genealogy&amp;mdash;Getting Started, Part One&lt;/a&gt;” (CeCe Moore).  If your relative who keeps the family history starts talking about SNPs, haplotypes, and mitochondrial DNA, now you’ll know why: “Interest in DNA testing for genealogy has reached an all-time high thanks to its increasing sophistication and the resulting visibility in the media.  . . .  As a result, many family history enthusiasts have expressed their desire to venture into the fascinating world of genetic genealogy, but don’t know where to start.  If you are one of these people, then I am writing this for you.”&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:2&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:2&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;”&lt;a href=&#34;https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/about/&#34;&gt;About the Genographic Project&lt;/a&gt;” (National Geographic Society).  The National Geographic Society continues its tradition of making the exotic familiar: “We have developed a cutting-edge new test kit, called Geno 2.0, that enables members of the public to participate in the Genographic Project while learning fascinating insights about their own ancestry.  . . .  Included in the markers we will test for is a subset that scientists have recently determined to be from our hominin cousins, Neanderthals and the newly discovered Denisovans.  . . .  With Geno 2.0, you will learn if you have any Neanderthal or Denisovan DNA in your genome.”&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;“&lt;a href=&#34;http://johnhawks.net/weblog/reviews/neandertals/neandertal_dna/neandertals-live-genome-sequencing-2010.html&#34;&gt;Neandertals Live!&lt;/a&gt;” (John Hawks).  Hawks is an anthropologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a prolific blogger.  Here he reacts to the announcement of the sequencing of the Neandertal genome and the evidence that some (not all) humans have Neandertal ancestry: “These scientists have given an immense gift to humanity.  I’ve been comparing it to the pictures of Earth that came back from Apollo 8.  The Neandertal genome gives us a picture of ourselves, from the outside looking in.  We can see, and now learn about, the essential genetic changes that make us human&amp;mdash;the things that made our emergence as a global species possible.” Hawks also has &lt;a href=&#34;http://johnhawks.net/weblog/reviews/neandertals/neandertal_dna/denisova-nuclear-genome-reich-2010.html&#34; title=&#34;The Denisovan genome FAQ&#34;&gt;some things to say about the Denisovans&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:3&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:3&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;3&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;“&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.prweb.com/releases/2012/11/prweb10166775.htm&#34;&gt;‘Bigfoot’ DNA Sequenced In Upcoming Genetics Study&lt;/a&gt;” (Dr. Melba Ketchum and associates).  Perennially frustrated Sasquatch hunters want to join the genome sequencing archaic human interbreeding fun: “The genome sequencing shows that Sasquatch [mitochondrial DNA] is identical to modern Homo sapiens, but Sasquatch [nuclear DNA] is a novel, unknown hominin related to Homo sapiens and other primate species.  Our data indicate that the North American Sasquatch is a hybrid species, the result of males of an unknown hominin species crossing with female Homo sapiens.” However they didn’t release the actual genome data, so for now this remains just a tease, the scientific equivalent of &lt;a href=&#34;http://animal.discovery.com/tv-shows/finding-bigfoot&#34;&gt;Finding Bigfoot&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:4&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:4&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;4&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;div class=&#34;footnotes&#34; role=&#34;doc-endnotes&#34;&gt;
&lt;hr&gt;
&lt;ol&gt;
&lt;li id=&#34;fn:1&#34;&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Warfield book is in the public domain, so I’ve pointed to the free downloadable copy in the Internet Archive.  You can also find versions in various formats at Amazon or elsewhere; some of these may feature cleaner conversions of the text.&amp;#160;&lt;a href=&#34;#fnref:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-backref&#34; role=&#34;doc-backlink&#34;&gt;&amp;#x21a9;&amp;#xfe0e;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week my theme is the search for one’s ancestors and the surprising places it can take us:</p>
<ul>
<li><em><a href="http://archive.org/details/foundersofannear00warf">The founders of Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, Maryland</a></em> (Joshua Dorsey Warfield).  Have you ever wondered about the people whose names are reflected in local places (Scaggsville), roads (Snowden River Parkway), and neighborhoods (Shipley’s Grant)?  This is one of the (if not the) ur-texts of genealogy in Howard County: “At the beginning of this new century we are going to the garrets, bringing out the portraits of our forefathers, brushing off the dust,&mdash;putting them into new frames and handing them down to our children.  Search the records for their good deeds.” See also the <a href="http://www.hcgsmd.org/">Howard County Genealogical Society</a>.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></li>
<li><em><a href="http://www.pbs.org/wnet/finding-your-roots/">Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates, Jr.</a></em> (PBS).  Genealogy gets the reality show treatment, complete with the requisite dramatic reveals at the conclusion of each episode: “Working closely with leading US genealogists . . . and ancestry experts from around the world, Gates and his production team comb through family stories to discover unknown histories and relatives the guests never knew existed.  When paper trails end for each story, the team turns to top geneticists and DNA diagnosticians . . . to analyze each participant’s genetic code, tracing their bloodlines and occasionally debunking their long-held notions and beliefs.” You can view all the episodes online; I watched the one with Cory Booker and John Lewis, which has an especially moving narrative involving Lewis’s ancestors.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.geni.com/blog/dna-testing-for-genealogy-getting-started-part-one-375984.html">DNA Testing for Genealogy&mdash;Getting Started, Part One</a>” (CeCe Moore).  If your relative who keeps the family history starts talking about SNPs, haplotypes, and mitochondrial DNA, now you’ll know why: “Interest in DNA testing for genealogy has reached an all-time high thanks to its increasing sophistication and the resulting visibility in the media.  . . .  As a result, many family history enthusiasts have expressed their desire to venture into the fascinating world of genetic genealogy, but don’t know where to start.  If you are one of these people, then I am writing this for you.”<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></li>
<li>”<a href="https://genographic.nationalgeographic.com/about/">About the Genographic Project</a>” (National Geographic Society).  The National Geographic Society continues its tradition of making the exotic familiar: “We have developed a cutting-edge new test kit, called Geno 2.0, that enables members of the public to participate in the Genographic Project while learning fascinating insights about their own ancestry.  . . .  Included in the markers we will test for is a subset that scientists have recently determined to be from our hominin cousins, Neanderthals and the newly discovered Denisovans.  . . .  With Geno 2.0, you will learn if you have any Neanderthal or Denisovan DNA in your genome.”</li>
<li>“<a href="http://johnhawks.net/weblog/reviews/neandertals/neandertal_dna/neandertals-live-genome-sequencing-2010.html">Neandertals Live!</a>” (John Hawks).  Hawks is an anthropologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and a prolific blogger.  Here he reacts to the announcement of the sequencing of the Neandertal genome and the evidence that some (not all) humans have Neandertal ancestry: “These scientists have given an immense gift to humanity.  I’ve been comparing it to the pictures of Earth that came back from Apollo 8.  The Neandertal genome gives us a picture of ourselves, from the outside looking in.  We can see, and now learn about, the essential genetic changes that make us human&mdash;the things that made our emergence as a global species possible.” Hawks also has <a href="http://johnhawks.net/weblog/reviews/neandertals/neandertal_dna/denisova-nuclear-genome-reich-2010.html" title="The Denisovan genome FAQ">some things to say about the Denisovans</a>.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.prweb.com/releases/2012/11/prweb10166775.htm">‘Bigfoot’ DNA Sequenced In Upcoming Genetics Study</a>” (Dr. Melba Ketchum and associates).  Perennially frustrated Sasquatch hunters want to join the genome sequencing archaic human interbreeding fun: “The genome sequencing shows that Sasquatch [mitochondrial DNA] is identical to modern Homo sapiens, but Sasquatch [nuclear DNA] is a novel, unknown hominin related to Homo sapiens and other primate species.  Our data indicate that the North American Sasquatch is a hybrid species, the result of males of an unknown hominin species crossing with female Homo sapiens.” However they didn’t release the actual genome data, so for now this remains just a tease, the scientific equivalent of <a href="http://animal.discovery.com/tv-shows/finding-bigfoot">Finding Bigfoot</a>.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></li>
</ul>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The Warfield book is in the public domain, so I’ve pointed to the free downloadable copy in the Internet Archive.  You can also find versions in various formats at Amazon or elsewhere; some of these may feature cleaner conversions of the text.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Of the various services providing products in this space, <a href="http://www.familytreedna.com/">Family Tree DNA</a> is the apparent favorite among the cognoscenti, <a href="http://dna.ancestry.com/">Ancestry DNA</a> is going after the mass market, <a href="http://www.africanancestry.com/">African Ancestry</a> is a specialty service for African-Americans, and <a href="https://www.23andme.com/">23andMe</a> is doing this as an follow-on product to their original health-related service.  <del>Recall also that <a href="/2011/03/12/maryland-says-no-dtc-genetic-testing-for-you/">Maryland residents are forbidden to use 23andMe</a>.</del>&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>In discussing the Neandertal genome, Hawks goes on to say, “[The scientists who sequenced the genome have] taken all of their data and deposited it in a public database, so that the rest of us can inspect them, replicate results, and learn new things from them.  High school kids can download this stuff and do science fair projects on Neandertal genomics.” I’m not sure we’re quite there yet on the science fair front, but interested high school students have lots of other <a href="http://www.sciencebuddies.org/science-fair-projects/Intro-Genetics-Genomics.shtml">genetics and genomics science fair project ideas</a> to choose from.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>If and when Dr. Ketchum and her team do release sequence data, scientists can use the same techniques used on the Neandertal and Denisovan genomes to determine whether the purported Sasquatch sequence actually makes sense or is the result of fakery, contamination by real human DNA, or whatever.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Weekend reading: Dense Democrats, supercharged cities, and rural reaction then and now</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/11/24/weekend-reading-dense-democrats-etc/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 24 Nov 2012 07:00:45 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/11/24/weekend-reading-dense-democrats-etc/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This week my theme is the urban-rural divide in US politics, both present and past:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;“&lt;a href=&#34;http://davetroy.com/posts/the-real-republican-adversary-population-density&#34;&gt;The Real Republican Adversary?  Population Density&lt;/a&gt;” (Dave Troy).  A Baltimore entrepreneur looks at how population density is associated with (and influences?) Americans’ political choices and beliefs: “98% of the 50 most dense counties voted Obama.  98% of the 50 least dense counties voted for Romney.  . . .  At about 800 people per square mile, people switch from voting primarily Republican to voting primarily Democratic.” His conclusion: “Density is efficient.  Density produces maximum economic output.  An America that is not built fundamentally on density and efficiency is not competitive or sustainable.  And a Republican party that requires America to grow inefficiently will become extinct.” See also Tim de Chant’s “&lt;a href=&#34;http://persquaremile.com/2012/11/08/population-density-and-the-2012-presidential-election/&#34;&gt;How population density affected the 2012 presidential election&lt;/a&gt;” for (somewhat confusing) paired maps showing population density vs. Obama’s and Romney’s vote totals.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;“&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.pnas.org/content/104/17/7301.full&#34;&gt;Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities&lt;/a&gt;” (Luís M. A. Bettencourt, José Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kühnert, and Geoffrey B. West).  Providing some scientific underpinnings to Dave Troy’s arguments for cities and higher-density living, Geoffrey West and his colleagues claim that the growth of cities exhibits mathematical regularities and in particular that cities foster increases in innovation at a rate greater than would be expected by looking at their rate of population growth: “Many diverse properties of cities from patent production and personal income to electrical cable length are shown to be power law functions of population size with scaling exponents, β, that fall into distinct universality classes.  Quantities reflecting wealth creation and innovation have β ≈1.2 &amp;gt;1 (increasing returns), whereas those accounting for infrastructure display β ≈0.8 &amp;lt;1 (economies of scale).” For a less math-heavy discussion of these ideas see the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.edge.org/conversation.php?cid=geoffrey-west&#34;&gt;Edge interview with West&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;“&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.jbs.org/action-tools/download?id=310_1f43bbfa7b371a1d6bea854afb7ddb62&#34;&gt;Agenda 21 and You&lt;/a&gt;” [PDF] (John Birch Society).  One present-day conservative response to calls for higher-density living and “sustainable development”: “The American dream of the beautiful house, big front and back yard, white picket fence, and one to two cars, is to be replaced with the United Nations’ Agenda 21 vision of living in small urban dwelling[s].  . . .  As rural areas become less populated, they will become off-limits for people, but not animals and plants, such as weeds.  Over time, plants and animals will move in and take over.  Grass will grow uncut and grow creeping into sidewalks.  . . .  These once lively and prosperous communities will become ‘open space.’”&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;“&lt;a href=&#34;http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5354/&#34;&gt;Cross of Gold&lt;/a&gt;” (William Jennings Bryan).  In 1896 the soon-to-be Democratic presidential nominee advocates on behalf of rural America:&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;[We] say not one word against those who live upon the Atlantic coast, but the hardy pioneers who have braved all the dangers of the wilderness, who have made the desert to blossom as the rose&amp;mdash;the pioneers away out there [pointing to the west], who rear their children near to Nature’s heart, where they can mingle their voices with the voices of the birds&amp;mdash;out there where they have erected schoolhouses for the education of their young, churches where they praise their Creator, and cemeteries where rest the ashes of their dead&amp;mdash;these people, as we say, are as deserving of the consideration of our party as any people in this country.  It is for these that we speak.  . . .  I tell you that the great cities rest upon these broad and fertile prairies.  Burn down your cities and leave our farms, and your cities will spring up again as if by magic.  But destroy our farms and the grass will grow in the streets of every city in the country.”&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:2&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:2&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week my theme is the urban-rural divide in US politics, both present and past:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://davetroy.com/posts/the-real-republican-adversary-population-density">The Real Republican Adversary?  Population Density</a>” (Dave Troy).  A Baltimore entrepreneur looks at how population density is associated with (and influences?) Americans’ political choices and beliefs: “98% of the 50 most dense counties voted Obama.  98% of the 50 least dense counties voted for Romney.  . . .  At about 800 people per square mile, people switch from voting primarily Republican to voting primarily Democratic.” His conclusion: “Density is efficient.  Density produces maximum economic output.  An America that is not built fundamentally on density and efficiency is not competitive or sustainable.  And a Republican party that requires America to grow inefficiently will become extinct.” See also Tim de Chant’s “<a href="http://persquaremile.com/2012/11/08/population-density-and-the-2012-presidential-election/">How population density affected the 2012 presidential election</a>” for (somewhat confusing) paired maps showing population density vs. Obama’s and Romney’s vote totals.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/104/17/7301.full">Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities</a>” (Luís M. A. Bettencourt, José Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kühnert, and Geoffrey B. West).  Providing some scientific underpinnings to Dave Troy’s arguments for cities and higher-density living, Geoffrey West and his colleagues claim that the growth of cities exhibits mathematical regularities and in particular that cities foster increases in innovation at a rate greater than would be expected by looking at their rate of population growth: “Many diverse properties of cities from patent production and personal income to electrical cable length are shown to be power law functions of population size with scaling exponents, β, that fall into distinct universality classes.  Quantities reflecting wealth creation and innovation have β ≈1.2 &gt;1 (increasing returns), whereas those accounting for infrastructure display β ≈0.8 &lt;1 (economies of scale).” For a less math-heavy discussion of these ideas see the <a href="http://www.edge.org/conversation.php?cid=geoffrey-west">Edge interview with West</a>.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.jbs.org/action-tools/download?id=310_1f43bbfa7b371a1d6bea854afb7ddb62">Agenda 21 and You</a>” [PDF] (John Birch Society).  One present-day conservative response to calls for higher-density living and “sustainable development”: “The American dream of the beautiful house, big front and back yard, white picket fence, and one to two cars, is to be replaced with the United Nations’ Agenda 21 vision of living in small urban dwelling[s].  . . .  As rural areas become less populated, they will become off-limits for people, but not animals and plants, such as weeds.  Over time, plants and animals will move in and take over.  Grass will grow uncut and grow creeping into sidewalks.  . . .  These once lively and prosperous communities will become ‘open space.’”</li>
<li>“<a href="http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5354/">Cross of Gold</a>” (William Jennings Bryan).  In 1896 the soon-to-be Democratic presidential nominee advocates on behalf of rural America:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote>
<p>[We] say not one word against those who live upon the Atlantic coast, but the hardy pioneers who have braved all the dangers of the wilderness, who have made the desert to blossom as the rose&mdash;the pioneers away out there [pointing to the west], who rear their children near to Nature’s heart, where they can mingle their voices with the voices of the birds&mdash;out there where they have erected schoolhouses for the education of their young, churches where they praise their Creator, and cemeteries where rest the ashes of their dead&mdash;these people, as we say, are as deserving of the consideration of our party as any people in this country.  It is for these that we speak.  . . .  I tell you that the great cities rest upon these broad and fertile prairies.  Burn down your cities and leave our farms, and your cities will spring up again as if by magic.  But destroy our farms and the grass will grow in the streets of every city in the country.”<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1896">United States presidential election, 1896</a>” (Wikipedia).  “The 1896 campaign is often considered to be a realigning election that ended the old Third Party System and began the Fourth Party System.  [Republican candidate William] McKinley forged a coalition in which businessmen, professionals, skilled factory workers, and prosperous farmers were heavily represented.  He was strongest in cities and in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and Pacific Coast.  Bryan was . . . strongest in the South, rural Midwest, and Rocky Mountain states.” Compare the map of electoral results to the Tim de Chant map linked to above.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></li>
</ul>
<hr>
<h4 id="3c1ec4d7-001"><a href="http://www.hocorising.com" title="tcoale@gmail.com">Tom</a> - 2012-11-25 19:56</h4>
<p>Thank you for this post, Frank. I appreciate the long reads.</p>
<h4 id="3c1ec4d7-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-11-26 04:16</h4>
<p>Glad you like it. I&rsquo;m getting into having a chosen theme for each of these, and plan to continue the practice.</p>
<h4 id="3c1ec4d7-003">Exiled in Maryland (exiled@home.com) - 2012-11-27 04:22</h4>
<p>Rural Americans tend to be seen as generally more self-sufficient whereas city-dwellers are generally those doing most of the consumption of government services and handouts. Of course the more densely populated areas will tend to vote Democrat. That&rsquo;s where most of the freeloaders live. Romney was exactly right about the 47% and those 47% live in the cities.</p>
<h4 id="3c1ec4d7-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-11-27 14:02</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to comment! The question is, is there data to support your assertion? Off the top of my head, I recall data showing that in general rural states receive more in Federal spending (all types) than they contribute in Federal taxes. I&rsquo;ve also seen stories calming that rural states have a higher proportion of food stamp recipients than urban states. However I don&rsquo;t expect you to accept this assertion in the absence of actual data, anymore than I&rsquo;d accept your assertion without some evidence to back it up. When I have time I&rsquo;ll try to track some relevant data sources down and do a post on this. In the meantime if you have links to applicable data please feel free to post them in a comment and I&rsquo;ll check them out.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>If and when I have time I’d like to do a version of Dave Troy’s analysis for Howard County, relating Democratic and Republican vote totals in each of the county’s 110 precincts to the population density for that precinct.  Clearly there’s the well-known tendency for less-populated rural western Howard to vote GOP, but it would be interesting to see how closely the relationship between density and voters’ choices holds up elsewhere in the county.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Note that what rural Americans wanted in 1896 was an alternative to the gold standard and an accompanying bit of inflation to help reduce their burden of debt, and that’s what Bryan promised them in the famous conclusion of his speech:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Having behind us the producing masses of this nation and the world, supported by the commercial interests, the laboring interests, and the toilers everywhere, we will answer their demand for a gold standard by saying to them: You shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns; you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Here Bryan stretched his arms out wide, and after a moment of stunned silence the crowd went wild.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>For an interesting contrast to Bryan’s speech see the <a href="http://projects.vassar.edu/1896/mckinleyaddress.html">acceptance speech of William McKinley</a> that same year:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Great are the issues involved in the coming election, and eager and earnest are the people for their right determination.  Our domestic trade must be won back and our idle workingmen employed in gainful occupations at American wages.  . . .  The government of the United States must raise enough money to meet both its current expenses and increasing needs.  . . .  It must be apparent to all, regardless of past party ties or affiliations, that it is our paramount duty to provide adequate revenue for the expenditures economically and prudently administered.  The Republican party has heretofore done this, and this I confidently believe it will do in the future, when the party is again entrusted with power.  . . .  The American people hold the financial honor of our country as sacred as our flag, and can be relied upon to guard it with the same sleepless vigilance.  They hold its preservation above party loyalty and have often demonstrated that party ties avail nothing when the spotless credit of our country is threatened.</p>
</blockquote>
&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Why Maryland Democrats should vote NO on Question 5</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/10/27/why-maryland-democrats-should-vote-no-on-question-5/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 27 Oct 2012 19:25:32 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/10/27/why-maryland-democrats-should-vote-no-on-question-5/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Recently my fellow HoCo blogger Tom Coale &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2012/10/question-5-marylands-shameful.html&#34; title=&#34;Question 5 Maryland’s Shameful Distinction&#34;&gt;strongly recommended&lt;/a&gt; voting against &lt;a href=&#34;http://lwvhc.wordpress.com/state-questions/#Districting&#34;&gt;Maryland Question 5&lt;/a&gt;, the state ballot question asking voters to approve or reject the US Congressional redistricting measure created by the Democratic party-dominated Maryland state legislature.  As noted in a &lt;a href=&#34;http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-10-08/news/bs-md-congrssional-map-20121008_1_congressional-map-new-map-maryland-democrats&#34;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt; story on reaction to the measure&lt;/a&gt;, it was designed to ensure that all eight Congressional districts in Maryland have enough Democratic voters to ensure election of Democratic candidates to the US House of Representatives, and in particular to try to keep a Republican candidate from winning Congressional District 5 in Western Maryland.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently my fellow HoCo blogger Tom Coale <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2012/10/question-5-marylands-shameful.html" title="Question 5 Maryland’s Shameful Distinction">strongly recommended</a> voting against <a href="http://lwvhc.wordpress.com/state-questions/#Districting">Maryland Question 5</a>, the state ballot question asking voters to approve or reject the US Congressional redistricting measure created by the Democratic party-dominated Maryland state legislature.  As noted in a <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2012-10-08/news/bs-md-congrssional-map-20121008_1_congressional-map-new-map-maryland-democrats"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> story on reaction to the measure</a>, it was designed to ensure that all eight Congressional districts in Maryland have enough Democratic voters to ensure election of Democratic candidates to the US House of Representatives, and in particular to try to keep a Republican candidate from winning Congressional District 5 in Western Maryland.</p>
<p>Tom Coale highlighted the bizarre shapes of the proposed districts, a byproduct of the legislature’s attempt to artificially create safe Democratic seats even if the districts make no sense from the perspective of geography and current political boundaries.  A former Congressional staffer quoted by Tom noted that gerrymandering of this sort helps produce political polarization, makes Representatives more remote from their constituents, and in particular harms the interests of Howard County by splitting it between three separate Congressional districts.  I’m a registered Democrat myself, but in this post I’ll make the case that the redistricting measure, even though created by Democratic politicians and activists, is actually harmful to the long-term interests of the Democratic party and the people and principles it purports to represent.</p>
<p>But how can this be?  Isn’t the goal to elect more Democratic candidates and to defeat “Team Red”?  Wasn’t opposition to this redistricting measure led by Republicans, who are responsible for Question 5 being on the ballot in the first place?  Yes, that’s right.  But just because Republicans oppose the new redistricting measure doesn’t mean that we as Democrats are duty-bound to support it.  If the Devil gives you advice you might question his motives, but that doesn’t necessarily make it bad advice; you owe it yourself to think on the subject and come to your own conclusions.  So without further ado here’s my take on the case for voting NO on Question 5:</p>
<p><strong>The current redistricting measure will produce Democratic candidates who are more ideologically out of sync with the typical voter, and less likely to appeal to them in the long term.</strong> If general elections become uncompetitive due to gerrymandering then the Democratic primaries will determine who gets elected.  Since voters in Democratic primaries are more likely to be Democratic party activists and other strongly-partisan Democrats, the Democratic candidates who will be successful will be those who appeal to strong partisans and not necessarily those who appeal to the typical voter.  This is sowing the seeds of long-term problems, for a variety of reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li>When elected officials owe their election to a relatively small group of Democratic activists, they prioritize the interests of those people over the interests of Democratic voters in general and the public at large.  This can produce policies that appeal to special interests and ideological pressure groups but can be distasteful or even harmful to the rest of the electorate.  (See my post on <a href="/2011/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/">gerrymandering in Howard County Council elections</a> for a more lengthy discussion of this point.)</li>
<li>Not all elections can be gerrymandered.  Extremely liberal Democratic candidates who are successful in district-based Congressional elections may struggle when trying to compete in statewide elections for governor or the US Senate (or, for that matter, in Presidential elections, should it ever come to that).</li>
<li>The Democratic party depends much more than the Republican party on its ability to build a broad coalition of voters who may belong to different ethnic, religious, and socioeconomic groups.  Giving a small fraction of Democratic voters the effective power to determine Democratic candidates and policies makes it more difficult to hold that coalition together over time.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>The current redistricting measure will make it more difficult to replace mediocre, incompetent, or even corrupt Democratic elected officials with more effective Democratic candidates.</strong> The Democratic party doesn’t exist to provide sinecures for Democratic party leaders and activists, it exists to further Democratic party principles.  No one, no matter how long their service to the party, has an inalienable right to lifelong employment as an elected official.  Gerrymandering that creates safe Democratic seats also makes it more difficult to replace candidates who have passed their “sell-by date” with others who could better represent the party and appeal to a broader base of voters.</p>
<p><strong>In cases where Republicans do get elected, they will be more ideologically polarized and less willing to work with Democratic elected officials to advance initiatives that would help both Democrats and Republicans.</strong> This is the flip side of the problem I mentioned above: When Republicans get disproportionately gerrymandered into certain districts in order to improve Democratic chances elsewhere, those districts can end up being the mirror of “safe” Democratic districts, electing Republicans candidates who owe their electoral success in appealing to the most conservative and partisan GOP primary voters.  If Democrats ever need the help of such Republicans in advancing bipartisan initiatives they’ll likely find them unwilling to cooperate.</p>
<p><strong>As a result of the effects above, the current redistricting measure will increase voters’ cynicism about government and decrease their willingness to support worthy government initiatives.</strong> This serves the long-term interests of the Republican party, which explicitly promotes itself as the opponent of government.  However this is absolute poison to the goals of the Democratic party, which seeks to use government as a vehicle to promote the public interest and safeguard the interests of the most vulnerable members of society.</p>
<p><strong>If voters ultimately get fed up with the consequences of partisan gerrymandering, they may adopt measures that are even more destructive of Democratic interests and more difficult to reverse.</strong> Draconian term limits for elected officials?  <a href="/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/">Supermajority requirements for raising taxes</a>?  The continual use of ballot initiatives to attempt to micro-manage legislators?  All consequences of an electorate that thinks politicians are unresponsive to their needs, is looking for any way to correct the problem, and is susceptible to those pushing simple-sounding cures that in many cases end up making the disease worse rather than better.  (See California for a good example of this dynamic.)</p>
<p><strong>Finally, rejecting the current redistricting measure may improve the future chances of adopting redistricting schemes that are more non-partisan and could moderate the excesses of partisan gerrymandering.</strong> If the redistricting measure is rejected then it will go back to the Maryland state legislature, which will likely make some relatively cosmetic changes and then approve it again.  So the short-term impact of rejecting the measure will be relatively minor.  However if Question 5 goes down to defeat then at least it will show that there is popular support for an alternative to the present system, and those promoting such alternatives may be able to build on that support to get future measures on the ballot to change the way redistricting is done.</p>
<p>As they say, every journey begins with a single step, and I think rejecting the legislature’s redistricting measure is a useful first step on the journey to a more effective and responsive Democratic party that better serves the interests of all Marylanders.  I hope you’ll join me on that journey by voting NO on Question 5.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Michael Chabon on Columbia and Obama</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/09/22/michael-chabon-on-columbia-and-obama/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 22 Sep 2012 12:37:04 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/09/22/michael-chabon-on-columbia-and-obama/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I saw this on &lt;a href=&#34;http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/09/the-literature-of-hope.html&#34; title=&#34;The Literature of Hope&#34;&gt;Andrew Sullivan’s blog&lt;/a&gt; and thought it interesting: &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.salon.com/2012/09/20/chabon_on_race_sex_obama_i_never_wanted_to_tell_the_story_of_two_guys_in_a_record_store/&#34;&gt;Michael Chabon’s interview at Salon&lt;/a&gt; where he talks about his new book &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.amazon.com/Telegraph-Avenue-Novel-Michael-Chabon/dp/0061493341&#34;&gt;Telegraph Avenue&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt; and name-checks Jim Rouse, Columbia (where he grew up), and Barack Obama:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I’ve been engaged in this process, since I maybe turned 40, of reconnecting through my fiction, with parts of myself&amp;mdash;my upbringing, my heritage, whatever it may be&amp;mdash;that had great importance, that I had somehow lost or abandoned or forgotten or set aside.  . . .  [The] last remaining key element of my biography that I had wandered from, and in some ways the most painful to me&amp;mdash;which took me a while to get around to facing&amp;mdash;was black people, and their relative visibility or invisibility in my life, in sort of Ellisonian terms.  I grew up in Columbia, Md., which during the 10 or 11 years my family lived there tried and to a fair degree succeeded to be a very racially integrated, economically integrated, place where all were welcome.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I saw this on <a href="http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/09/the-literature-of-hope.html" title="The Literature of Hope">Andrew Sullivan’s blog</a> and thought it interesting: <a href="http://www.salon.com/2012/09/20/chabon_on_race_sex_obama_i_never_wanted_to_tell_the_story_of_two_guys_in_a_record_store/">Michael Chabon’s interview at Salon</a> where he talks about his new book <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Telegraph-Avenue-Novel-Michael-Chabon/dp/0061493341">Telegraph Avenue</a></em> and name-checks Jim Rouse, Columbia (where he grew up), and Barack Obama:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’ve been engaged in this process, since I maybe turned 40, of reconnecting through my fiction, with parts of myself&mdash;my upbringing, my heritage, whatever it may be&mdash;that had great importance, that I had somehow lost or abandoned or forgotten or set aside.  . . .  [The] last remaining key element of my biography that I had wandered from, and in some ways the most painful to me&mdash;which took me a while to get around to facing&mdash;was black people, and their relative visibility or invisibility in my life, in sort of Ellisonian terms.  I grew up in Columbia, Md., which during the 10 or 11 years my family lived there tried and to a fair degree succeeded to be a very racially integrated, economically integrated, place where all were welcome.</p>
<p><strong>Yeah, I see where you gave a special acknowledgment to James Rouse, the planner of Columbia.  That was a landmark in suburban planning, kind of the birthplace of “new urbanism” and one of the first, if not the first, intentionally integrated suburbs.</strong></p>
<p>Right.  And in Columbia I grew up surrounded by black kids.  They were in my classroom, they were my friends, they were my enemies, they were my persecutors and my saviors and my girlfriends and my teachers and my school principals, and when I left Columbia, I rapidly discovered that the rest of the world wasn’t like that.  It was a rude awakening for me.  . . .</p>
<p>It’s what I heard Barack Obama, you know, when he gave that keynote address at the 2004 convention&mdash;what he was talking about, to me, was Columbia, Md.  The America he was describing, was the dream of Columbia, the vision of Columbia, I had grown up believing in.  . . .  It sometimes seems like a will-o’-the-wisp, but on the other hand it won’t go away, as a beckoning image of possibility or potential.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Chabon further comments on Columbia then and now in an <a href="http://www.vulture.com/2012/09/michael-chabon-telegraph-avenue.html" title="Michael Chabon May Just Be the Perfect Writer for the Obama Age">interview with Kathryn Schulz</a> (also linked to by Sullivan):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“I was very invested in the stated ideals of [Columbia],” he says, “and, during those first ten years, it really managed to pretty well live up to what it wanted to accomplish.”</p>
<p>Over time, though, and to Chabon’s acute disappointment, Columbia capitulated to the status quo.  It was not a spectacular failure, he says, “in the way that a lot of utopias are, where there’s a sexual-harassment lawsuit or they end up eating each other.  Columbia is still there, people live there very happily.  But in terms of its original vision, that faded.” Go back these days, he says, and you’ll find “a typical edge city.”</p>
<p>Figuratively speaking, Chabon does go back to Columbia, again and again.  “I seem, almost from the beginning, to be wrestling with the inevitability of failure, either as it’s played out through one person’s personal ambition or as it plays out through the effort to create a kind of utopia, the way the Columbia experience was for me.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I haven’t read <em>Telegraph Avenue</em> (or for that matter Chabon’s previous novel <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Yiddish-Policemens-Union-Novel-P-S/dp/0007149832/">The Yiddish Policemen’s Union</a>)</em>, but I quite enjoyed <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Amazing-Adventures-Kavalier-bonus-content/dp/0812983580/">The Amazing Adventures of Kavalier &amp; Clay</a></em>.  As to whether Columbia will ever again live up to the vision Chabon and others had for it, that’s a question for another day.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Participatory budgeting in Howard County?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/08/30/participatory-budgeting-in-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 30 Aug 2012 00:38:58 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/08/30/participatory-budgeting-in-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;If you could vote on exactly how Howard County spends $10M (just over 1% of its operating budget), would you take advantage of the opportunity?  What if you could vote on how the county spends $100M?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This thought was prompted by a &lt;a href=&#34;http://radar.oreilly.com/2012/07/mobile-participatory-budgeting-helps-raise-tax-revenues-in-congo.html&#34;&gt;blog post&lt;/a&gt; touching on “&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.participatorybudgeting.org/&#34;&gt;participatory budgeting&lt;/a&gt;,” a movement that started in Brazil and has since spread to other jurisdictions in Latin America and elsewhere.  To quote from the PB home site,&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you could vote on exactly how Howard County spends $10M (just over 1% of its operating budget), would you take advantage of the opportunity?  What if you could vote on how the county spends $100M?</p>
<p>This thought was prompted by a <a href="http://radar.oreilly.com/2012/07/mobile-participatory-budgeting-helps-raise-tax-revenues-in-congo.html">blog post</a> touching on “<a href="http://www.participatorybudgeting.org/">participatory budgeting</a>,” a movement that started in Brazil and has since spread to other jurisdictions in Latin America and elsewhere.  To quote from the PB home site,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Participatory budgeting (PB) is a democratic process in which community members directly decide how to spend part of a public budget.  Most examples involve city governments that have opened up decisions around municipal budgets, such as overall priorities and choice of new investments, to citizen assemblies.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>See the blog post “<a href="http://www.shareable.net/blog/how-to-start-participatory-budgeting-in-your-city">How to Start Participatory Budgeting in Your City</a>” for a good explanation of how it works in practice.</p>
<p>Some thoughts I had after reading these posts:</p>
<ul>
<li>It’s no accident that this movement started in a developing country, and in particular in Brazil, one of the key rising nations in the world (along with China, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and perhaps a couple others).  We worry in the US that we have too much government.  However the problem in most countries is not too much government, rather it’s corrupt and/or ineffective government.  One of the selling points of PB is that it makes governments more responsive to citizens while at the same time increasing citizens’ sense of ownership in and trust of governments.  It’s also no accident that this started as a local government initiative.  Local governments touch citizens most directly, and also provide the most opportunities for citizens to make a real difference.</li>
<li>Note the discussion of PB as a driver of increased tax compliance: citizens see where their tax money is going and have some influence over how it’s spent, so they’re more willing to pay taxes in the first place.  Even if you don’t like taxes as a matter of principle, this is an unmitigated good thing: Widespread tax evasion forces governments to raise nominal tax rates in order to fund a given amount of government services, and also induces them to impose harsh measures to force compliance.  Higher rates discourage entrepreneurial activity and fall most severely on those who are honest, while encouraging the less honest to participate in a culture of corruption around tax evasion: bribing tax officers, hiding assets or moving them out of the country, selling on the black market, and so on.</li>
<li>Doing PB right requires making a major investment in encouraging citizen participation, including moving beyond the traditional “let’s have a hearing somewhere and announce it in the newspaper” approach, in which special interests and dedicated activists often dominate the agenda.  Contrary to what many might think, local governments in developing countries may well be better positioned to do that than local governments in the US, since many developing countries are much more innovative than the US in terms of exploiting mobile devices and applications, a key driver in reaching people where they are.  But at the same time even low-tech measures can do the job: In Brazil they painted budget numbers on the walls of buildings to educate passers-by.  (As a local analogy, think of Howard County putting budget visualizations and questions for citizens on the advertising signs in the Mall at Columbia.)</li>
</ul>
<p>I’ll close with a final thought, prompted by this quote from one of the posts I referenced above:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“This all goes to show that innovations in open government go both ways, from developing to developed countries.  . . .  The fact that people are not blogging about it in English does not mean that it does not exist.  Sometimes people are just too busy making it happen.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>There’s a lot of talk about “<a href="http://www.gop.com/2012-republican-platform_exceptionalism/">American exceptionalism</a>” that often obscures the fact that many Americans (and American politicians) are fairly clueless about what goes on in the rest of the world, and believe the US must inevitably be “number 1” in anything that matters.  It’s not unpatriotic to point out that the reality is often quite different.  If participatory budgeting ever comes to Howard County, the affluent home of “good government,” it will be because struggling jurisdictions in the “third world” showed the way.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Ensuring the integrity of Maryland elections</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/08/18/ensuring-the-integrity-of-maryland-elections/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 18 Aug 2012 19:46:12 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/08/18/ensuring-the-integrity-of-maryland-elections/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I’m interrupting my blogging hiatus again to point you to an important report that I think everyone interested in Howard County and Maryland politics should read: &lt;a href=&#34;http://countingvotes.org/&#34;&gt;Counting Votes 2012: A State by State Look at Election Preparedness&lt;/a&gt;.  There’s been a lot of controversy about alleged voter fraud, with calls for voter ID cards and the like.  I have my thoughts on that general topic, but for this post I’ll simply note that this report deals with a related but somewhat separate issue, namely potential problems in the counting of votes and in confirming that votes are actually counted correctly.  (Related because counting votes properly is a key technique in detecting certain types of fraud, separate in that the concern here is not with verifying that people are eligible to vote, but rather with problems that can occur at the point of voting and afterward.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m interrupting my blogging hiatus again to point you to an important report that I think everyone interested in Howard County and Maryland politics should read: <a href="http://countingvotes.org/">Counting Votes 2012: A State by State Look at Election Preparedness</a>.  There’s been a lot of controversy about alleged voter fraud, with calls for voter ID cards and the like.  I have my thoughts on that general topic, but for this post I’ll simply note that this report deals with a related but somewhat separate issue, namely potential problems in the counting of votes and in confirming that votes are actually counted correctly.  (Related because counting votes properly is a key technique in detecting certain types of fraud, separate in that the concern here is not with verifying that people are eligible to vote, but rather with problems that can occur at the point of voting and afterward.)</p>
<p>In particular I wanted to note the following points:</p>
<p>First, moving to electronic voting machines and (possibly in the future) online voting opens up many new possible problems (not necessarily fraud-related) arising from bugs in voting hardware and related software.  As the saying goes, “To err is human, but to really screw things up requires a computer.”  Voting software bugs can cause hundreds or even thousands of votes to be lost or miscounted (as in one of the examples cited in the report).</p>
<p>Second, for those who want to commit voting fraud, electronic voting provides new opportunities for tampering with votes that are potentially much more effective than having people commit fraud in person (e.g., by voting at multiple polling places, voting as someone else who’s died, or otherwise misrepresenting themselves).  Again, the rule of thumb is that human fraud is typically small-scale, while electronic fraud can be an order of magnitude larger.</p>
<p>An example in an unrelated area: You may see from time to time news reports about someone trying (and typically failing) to rob a local bank.  This is a high-risk low-reward crime: Most bank robberies are for relatively small accounts, and most bank robbers get caught.  A much more serious problem today is criminals taking over the computers of financial personnel at small businesses or government agencies (typically by sending them specially crafted emails containing links to malicious web sites or virus-infected documents) and then generating fraudulent bank transactions that end up transferring money to the criminals.  The risk is very low (the criminals are typically based overseas and rarely apprehended or even identified) and a typical crime nets tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars.  (See the blog of <a href="http://krebsonsecurity.com/">Brian Krebs</a>, a former <em>Washington Post</em> reporter, for some <a href="http://krebsonsecurity.com/2012/08/uptick-in-cyber-attacks-on-small-businesses/">eye-opening stories</a> about this sort of thing.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>)</p>
<p>Finally, for a state that has a lot of resident security professionals and aspirations to be the “Silicon Valley of cybersecurity,” Maryland has at best done a mediocre job of securing its voting machines and associated processes; in the report it was put into the “needs improvement” category overall.  In particular, Maryland voting machines do not keep an independent record of votes cast, and therefore cannot be audited post-election to determine whether votes were lost, recorded for the wrong candidates, or fraudulently altered; this lack earned the state an “inadequate” rating in two categories.</p>
<p>It seems to me that ensuring the integrity of the electoral process is a core function of government if anything is.  I therefore call on any of you interested in this topic, no matter your party, to read the report and consider how we could get the identified issues addressed in time for future election cycles.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.fbi.gov/stats-services/publications/bank-crime-statistics-2011/bank-crime-statistics-2011">official FBI bank crime statistics</a>, there were about 5,000 bank robberies in the US in 2011, with a total amount robbed of about $38 million; average amount taken per robbery was under $9,000.  Unfortunately the FBI does not publish comparable statistics on online corporate account takeover fraud (including unauthorized ACH transactions and wire transfers), nor does any other official source I’m aware of.  However third party sources (for example this <a href="http://www.aitegroup.com/Reports/ReportDetail.aspx?recordItemID=844">Aite Group report</a>) estimate that account takeover losses are well in excess of $100 million per year.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Korean fried chicken at BonChon in Ellicott City</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/08/16/korean-fried-chicken-at-bon-chon-in-ellicott-city/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 16 Aug 2012 20:50:07 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/08/16/korean-fried-chicken-at-bon-chon-in-ellicott-city/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;No deep analysis tonight, just a brief report on my visit today to &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bonchon-Chicken-MD/141030559326642&#34;&gt;BonChon in Ellicott City&lt;/a&gt; to try out their fried chicken.  The place still hasn’t officially opened, but prompted by &lt;a href=&#34;http://howchow.blogspot.com/2012/07/bon-chon-is-open-korean-fried-chicken.html&#34;&gt;Howchow’s report&lt;/a&gt; we decided to stop by and try it out during their “soft opening.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The verdict: We really enjoyed it, and will definitely be back from time to time (as often as prudence allows).  The run-down:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;We went in the late afternoon, and it wasn’t crowded at all (one other party of four guys).  We got our food in less than 15 minutes.  I can see where it might be quite busy at other times though.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;It’s a fried chicken place, so we ate fried chicken, We didn’t try any other main dishes, and frankly I don’t see any point in doing so.  (Specialization for the win!)&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;We tried both the wings and chicken strips (which I’m not sure are all breast meat or mixed breast and thigh), the wings with the hot sauce and the strips with soy garlic sauce.  Personally I preferred the wings with hot sauce: I liked the hot sauce much better, and I thought the strips, though nicely crunchy, seemed a bit on the dry side.  I’m biased though, as I am a big fan of chicken wings in any form, especially fried; the strips with soy garlic sauce are certainly much more child-friendly.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;I got white rice as a side dish, both to cut the spiciness of the wings and to stay more in the “I could be eating this in Seoul” mood.  We also got some fries, which were OK but pretty generic.  We also were brought radish chunks with the chicken; these were nicely refreshing though again most children will likely spurn them.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Service was attentive (not surprising, since at that time of day the staff outnumbered the customers).  We talked with the waiter, the general manager, and one of the owners (presumably John Kim of &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.facebook.com/pages/Tutti-Frutti-MD/202826979291&#34;&gt;Tutti Frutti&lt;/a&gt; fame, though we didn’t ask his name).&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Total cost was under $50 for three people, which I consider quite reasonable for what we got.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In summary, I’m really happy to see BonChon in Ellicott City, and wish them luck with their grand opening whenever it is (September, most likely, based on our conversations).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No deep analysis tonight, just a brief report on my visit today to <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/Bonchon-Chicken-MD/141030559326642">BonChon in Ellicott City</a> to try out their fried chicken.  The place still hasn’t officially opened, but prompted by <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/2012/07/bon-chon-is-open-korean-fried-chicken.html">Howchow’s report</a> we decided to stop by and try it out during their “soft opening.”</p>
<p>The verdict: We really enjoyed it, and will definitely be back from time to time (as often as prudence allows).  The run-down:</p>
<ul>
<li>We went in the late afternoon, and it wasn’t crowded at all (one other party of four guys).  We got our food in less than 15 minutes.  I can see where it might be quite busy at other times though.</li>
<li>It’s a fried chicken place, so we ate fried chicken, We didn’t try any other main dishes, and frankly I don’t see any point in doing so.  (Specialization for the win!)</li>
<li>We tried both the wings and chicken strips (which I’m not sure are all breast meat or mixed breast and thigh), the wings with the hot sauce and the strips with soy garlic sauce.  Personally I preferred the wings with hot sauce: I liked the hot sauce much better, and I thought the strips, though nicely crunchy, seemed a bit on the dry side.  I’m biased though, as I am a big fan of chicken wings in any form, especially fried; the strips with soy garlic sauce are certainly much more child-friendly.</li>
<li>I got white rice as a side dish, both to cut the spiciness of the wings and to stay more in the “I could be eating this in Seoul” mood.  We also got some fries, which were OK but pretty generic.  We also were brought radish chunks with the chicken; these were nicely refreshing though again most children will likely spurn them.</li>
<li>Service was attentive (not surprising, since at that time of day the staff outnumbered the customers).  We talked with the waiter, the general manager, and one of the owners (presumably John Kim of <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/Tutti-Frutti-MD/202826979291">Tutti Frutti</a> fame, though we didn’t ask his name).</li>
<li>Total cost was under $50 for three people, which I consider quite reasonable for what we got.</li>
</ul>
<p>In summary, I’m really happy to see BonChon in Ellicott City, and wish them luck with their grand opening whenever it is (September, most likely, based on our conversations).</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="88e65613-001">John Kim (bonchonmd@gmail.com) - 2012-08-29 00:30</h4>
<p>Thanks for coming in, I will make sure the strips will be on point at your next visit! The grand opening is a week ahead now, which is the first week of September! :) Thanks again!</p>
<h4 id="88e65613-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-08-29 23:14</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to comment, and good luck on the grand opening. (I&rsquo;ve been in once since my initial visit, and may stop in at least once before the formal opening.)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How to win an STV election for Howard County Council, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/03/how-to-win-an-stv-election-for-howard-county-council-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 03 Jun 2012 09:14:20 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/03/how-to-win-an-stv-election-for-howard-county-council-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Thus far this weekend &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/beyond-term-limits-for-the-howard-county-council/&#34;&gt;I’ve suggested revamping the way we elect the Howard County Council&lt;/a&gt; as the price for extending the time council members can serve, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/&#34;&gt;proposed the single transferable vote system&lt;/a&gt; as an alternative, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-2/&#34;&gt;outlined its advantages&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/03/how-to-win-an-stv-election-for-howard-county-council-part-1/&#34;&gt;explained how it would change the two main parties’ strategies&lt;/a&gt;.  I’ll conclude this weekend by discussing how STV would affect the chances of candidates who represent a relatively small minority of voters.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As we saw in the last post, if a bloc of voters exceeds the size of the STV quota (one-sixth of the voters plus one for a five-member council, or 17,001 voters in our example) then they can elect a candidate of their choosing simply by voting for that candidate as their first choice.  But what if the bloc of voters is smaller than a quota, and its chosen candidate can’t attract that many first-preference votes?  The alternative strategy is simple: If you can’t be the first choice of lots of voters, try to become everybody’s second choice.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thus far this weekend <a href="/2012/06/02/beyond-term-limits-for-the-howard-county-council/">I’ve suggested revamping the way we elect the Howard County Council</a> as the price for extending the time council members can serve, <a href="/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/">proposed the single transferable vote system</a> as an alternative, <a href="/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-2/">outlined its advantages</a>, and <a href="/2012/06/03/how-to-win-an-stv-election-for-howard-county-council-part-1/">explained how it would change the two main parties’ strategies</a>.  I’ll conclude this weekend by discussing how STV would affect the chances of candidates who represent a relatively small minority of voters.</p>
<p>As we saw in the last post, if a bloc of voters exceeds the size of the STV quota (one-sixth of the voters plus one for a five-member council, or 17,001 voters in our example) then they can elect a candidate of their choosing simply by voting for that candidate as their first choice.  But what if the bloc of voters is smaller than a quota, and its chosen candidate can’t attract that many first-preference votes?  The alternative strategy is simple: If you can’t be the first choice of lots of voters, try to become everybody’s second choice.</p>
<p>Let’s look at an example involving ideological diversity, and in particular the bloc of voters that Pew Research refers to as the “Post-Moderns” in its <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2011/05/04/typology-group-profiles/">political typology</a>.  Post-Moderns are overall the youngest of the Pew typology groups, are “well-educated and financially comfortable,” “very socially liberal,” “supportive of many aspects of government” but not willing to see it go further into debt to support social programs, and not generally hostile to business or Wall Street.</p>
<p>Post-Moderns comprise only 14% of the electorate and don’t fit neatly into either of the two main parties’ coalitions.  In political terms a Post-Modern candidate would likely be either a business-friendly and relatively fiscally conservative Democrat or a socially-liberal Republican who doesn’t display knee-jerk opposition to government or taxes.  Either type is rare on the ground nowadays, and would have difficulty surviving a party primary.  It’s possible such a candidate would have to come from outside the two main parties, and in the current system would have almost no chance of being elected.</p>
<p>How would such a candidate (call him &ldquo;Tom C.&rdquo;) fare in an STV election for Howard County Council?  If we assume that Post-Moderns comprise the same proportion of the Howard County electorate as they do nationally, there would be about 14% of voters who might consider voting for Tom C. as their first choice; let’s suppose about 11% actually do so.  This would give Tom C. 11,220 first-preference votes (102,000 times 0.11), a respectable showing but well short of the quota of 17,001.</p>
<p>However let’s suppose Tom C. is generally well-known and well-liked in Howard County&mdash;serves on boards, supports local charities, is friends with people in both parties, that sort of thing.  He can explicitly ask other voters to support him as their second or their choice, even if they’re not willing to name him their first choice.</p>
<p>Suppose he is successful, and is indicated as a second choice by two-thirds of those who give their first-preference votes to three other candidates.  Suppose further that all three of those candidates are elected on the first count, each receiving at least 3,000 first-preference votes more than needed to meet the quota of 17,001.  Their excess votes would then transfer to other candidates not making the quota.</p>
<p>Since two-thirds of the voters in question named Tom C. as their second choice, he would get 2,000 votes from each of the three winning candidates (two-thirds of 3,000), or 6,000 votes in total.  Those 6,000 votes in combination with his own 11,220 first-preference votes would then give him a new total of 17,220, enough to make the quota and become the Howard County Council’s newest member.</p>
<p>Tom C. is thus a “transfer-friendly” candidate, i.e., someone who can be successful in being named as an alternative choice and thus attract transfer votes from more popular candidates.  In other countries that use the STV system there are transfer-friendly parties, i.e., minority parties that are not big enough to take control of government but are able to attract enough second-or third-preference votes to enter into coalitions and otherwise exert influence.</p>
<p>This ability of smaller parties and less-popular candidates to be successful is greater the larger the number of candidates being elected.  For example, if the Howard County Council were to be expanded from five to seven members (as some have proposed) then under an STV system a candidate could be elected with as little as one-eighth or 12.5% of the total first-preference vote, or even fewer first-preference votes if they could attract transfers.  (In our example the quota would be 12,751 instead of 17,001.)</p>
<p>This seems to go against my earlier stated desire to ensure that the council is not selected by a small minority of voters.  But remember, I was talking about a small minority being able to determine the <em>majority</em> of the council members; here we’re concerned only with the election of a single council member&mdash;though it’s true that in some cases such a single member could be a key swing vote determining the outcome of matters that come before the council.</p>
<p>This is a classic trade-off in politics: is it better to have a diverse group of representatives who have to form coalitions to get anything done (and may sometimes fail to do so) or to have a situation in which a solid and unified majority is free to carry out its plans without significant opposition, but is not necessarily reflective of the true preferences of voters?  On balance I think the former is a healthier arrangement.  If you agree then you should consider joining with me in looking at the possibility of an STV system for electing the Howard County Council.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="68a8c4bf-001"><a href="http://gravatar.com/tjmayotte" title="tjmayotte@gmail.com">TeeJay</a> - 2012-06-07 12:57</h4>
<p>Frank, I really enjoyed this series, although I&rsquo;m at a bit of a loss to see how to bring the STV system to reality in Howard County. Overcoming bureaucratic and voter inertia is, as always, incredibly difficult. It also somehow reminded me of when the Springfield Mensa chapter filled the power vacuum left by a fleeing Mayor Quimby. (Guest appearance by Stephen Hawking!) <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/They">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/They</a>_Saved_Lisa%27s_Brain</p>
<h4 id="68a8c4bf-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-06-07 13:13</h4>
<p>TJ, thanks for stopping by. I think the problem with alternative voting systems in the U.S. is that they&rsquo;re identified as being something promoted only by geeks or (worse) cranks. But there are places like Ireland (both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland) where STV is just the way elections work &ndash; nothing esoteric about it at all. I do agree though that the barriers to changing the current system are very high, but it&rsquo;s not as if Howard County hasn&rsquo;t changed its council election system before. It all depends on whether there&rsquo;s a critical mass of people (both voters and politicos) who don&rsquo;t like the current system and actually want to see a change.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How to win an STV election for Howard County Council, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/03/how-to-win-an-stv-election-for-howard-county-council-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 03 Jun 2012 00:27:54 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/03/how-to-win-an-stv-election-for-howard-county-council-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Walking around the neighborhood after publishing my last post I had a sudden pang of anxiety: Were the things I wrote about STV elections really the case?  In particular, people have always been able to take advantage of bloc voting to elect a favored candidate (or candidates); what’s so different about STV compared to a conventional at-large election?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Fortunately I was able to convince myself that STV worked (or at least could work) the way I thought I did.  I’m now writing my thoughts down just to make sure&amp;mdash;and of course in the hope that others might find this informative.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Walking around the neighborhood after publishing my last post I had a sudden pang of anxiety: Were the things I wrote about STV elections really the case?  In particular, people have always been able to take advantage of bloc voting to elect a favored candidate (or candidates); what’s so different about STV compared to a conventional at-large election?</p>
<p>Fortunately I was able to convince myself that STV worked (or at least could work) the way I thought I did.  I’m now writing my thoughts down just to make sure&mdash;and of course in the hope that others might find this informative.</p>
<p>A good place to start is to think about how an STV election could allocate council seats between Democratic and Republican candidates.  Consider again our hypothetical 2014 council election, in which 102,000 voters cast ballots (approximating the turnout in the 2010 council election).  Further suppose that 57,000 of those voters are predisposed to vote for Democrats and 45,000 are predisposed to vote for Republicans (approximating the parties’ respective vote totals in the 2010 council election).</p>
<p>If 2014 were a traditional at-large election then the strategy for Democrats would be very simple: field a slate of five candidates and ask Democratic voters (and Democratic-inclined independents) to vote a straight party ticket.  If this went according to plan then each of the five Democratic candidates would receive at least 57,000 votes, no Republican candidate would receive more than 45,000 votes, and Democrats would secure a 5-0 county council majority.</p>
<p>Note that it would not matter if Republicans ran one candidate or five in this example; the result would be the same.  The only thing that could go wrong for Democrats would be if one of the Democratic candidates were significantly less popular than the others, so that a Republican candidate could sneak through with a victory.  This model corresponds to the historical reality of the five at-large council elections held in Howard County through 1982: only in one election (1970) did Democrats fail to achieve 4-1 or 5-0 majorities on the council.</p>
<p>Now instead suppose that the 2014 election were held according to the STV scheme, with a quote of 17,001 votes (one-sixth of the total 102,000 votes, plus one).  Now it’s Republicans who have a simple yet effective strategy: First, run only two candidates for county council, say Greg Fox and Robert Flanagan (the top GOP council vote-getter in 2010 other than Fox).  Then ask half of the 45,000 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to vote for Greg Fox as their first choice with Flanagan as their second choice, and the other half to vote for Flanagan with Fox as their second choice.</p>
<p>If all went according to plan then Greg Fox would receive 22,500 first-preference votes (45,000 divided by 2) and Robert Flanagan would also receive 22,500 first preference votes.  Since 22,500 is greater than the quota of 17,001 both GOP candidates would be elected to the council.  Note that this is independent of how the Democratic candidates fare; polling above the quota based on first preference votes results in an automatic win.</p>
<p>However suppose Howard County Republicans instead fielded three candidates, say Greg Fox, Robert Flanagan, and Dennis Schrader, with Fox receiving 18,000 first preference votes, Flanagan 14,000, and Schrader 13,000.  In this case only Fox would be automatically elected to the council.  Even if all of Fox’s 999 excess votes (18,000 minus 17,001) were transferred to Flanagan (i.e., as Fox voters’ second choice) he would still have only 14,999 votes, well below the quota of 17,001.  Assuming that no Democratic voters selected Flanagan or Schrader as alternative choices, both candidates would remain below the quota and would be eliminated, and Democrats would take a 4-1 council majority.</p>
<p>Bad as this might be for the GOP, there’s an even worse scenario, namely that Republican voters split their first choice evenly among Fox, Flanagan, and Schrader, leaving each with 15,000 first preference votes, well below the quota of 17,001.  Assuming that no Democratic voters selected a GOP candidate as an alternate choice, all three would be eliminated and Democrats would take a 5-0 council majority.</p>
<p>Note that unlike the effects of gerrymandering under a district scheme, such a result would be a self-inflicted wound resulting from not understanding how STV actually works.  The key point is that in an STV election a party should resist fielding more candidates than the number of quotas (i.e., multiples of 17,001 votes in this case) it can reasonably expect to receive as first-preference votes, and should work to as much as possible ensure that those votes are spread evenly across all its candidates.</p>
<p>Thus at 45,000 expected first-preference votes in our example the Republican party has only 2.6 quotas (45,000 divided by 17,001) and should consider fielding no more than two candidates.  On the other hand in our example the Democratic party has 3.4 quotas (57,000 divided by 17,0001) and should consider fielding no more than three candidates.</p>
<p>Of course in a given election a party may project it will do better than expected and take a chance on fielding more candidates.  It may also in some cases expect to attract transferred votes from one or more of the other party’s candidates, if some voters designate as their second choice (or third, or fourth, or . . .) a candidate of a different party.</p>
<p>Attracting transferred votes is key to another challenge, namely how to get elected as a candidate representing a relatively small voting bloc; I’ll discuss that topic in the conclusion of this two-part post.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Electing a council that reflects Howard County, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 02 Jun 2012 18:02:40 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; of this two-part post I discussed my proposal to replace the current way of electing the Howard County Council with a new scheme to elect council members county-wide using a single transferable vote (STV) scheme.  As is apparent from even my simplified explanation, understanding and running an STV election is significantly more difficult than a traditional by-district or at-large election.  Why put ourselves to this extra trouble?  In short, because STV can do a much better job of ensuring that election results reflect voters’ true preferences.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/">part 1</a> of this two-part post I discussed my proposal to replace the current way of electing the Howard County Council with a new scheme to elect council members county-wide using a single transferable vote (STV) scheme.  As is apparent from even my simplified explanation, understanding and running an STV election is significantly more difficult than a traditional by-district or at-large election.  Why put ourselves to this extra trouble?  In short, because STV can do a much better job of ensuring that election results reflect voters’ true preferences.</p>
<p>The first major advantage is that voters aren’t casting “wasted” votes, like a conservative Republican in District 2 whose vote for the GOP has no effect in practice, or a liberal Democrat in District 5 whose preferred candidate is very likely to lose.  In an STV scheme a given level of county-wide support for a party would translate into a roughly corresponding number of seats on the council.  (More on this below.)</p>
<p>This proportional representation effect also applies to other voting blocs.  For example, if a given demographic group exceeds or is close to 16.7% of all voters and members of that group were willing to make a candidate in their own group either their first or second preference, it’s a pretty good bet that someone from that group would be elected to the council.  For example, this applies to African-Americans (17.5% of the population according to <a href="http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/24/24027.html">US Census data</a>) as well as to Asian-Americans (14.4% of the population).</p>
<p>STV thus offers a way to foster diversity on the council without artificially concentrating minority voters in one district.  This is especially important in cases where such voters are not concentrated in one or two areas but rather are spread throughout the county.  For example, in the recent round of council redistricting someone (I can’t recall who) complained that in practice black voters outside of District 2 had no opportunity to vote for an African-American candidate with a good chance of being elected.  This would not be the case under an STV system.</p>
<p>This same effect works with geographic areas as well.  Even in the absence of formal council districts it’s likely that voters in a particular geographic area would preferentially vote for someone from their own area, Columbia voters preferring a Columbia candidate, voters in western Howard preferring someone from that area of the county, and so on.  As long as those areas are large enough to provide one or more quotas for candidates it’s likely that we’d see a reasonable degree of geographic diversity on the council.</p>
<p>We’d also avoid cases where voters in a particular area get moved out of their preferred district, as happened with the Wheatfield and Brampton Hills neighborhoods in Ellicott City in the most recent round of council redistricting.  Under a county-wide STV scheme those voters could still consider Courtney Watson “their candidate” and make her their first choice in preference to others.</p>
<p>Coming back to the party question, it’s certainly true that STV would make it more likely that Democrats would hold only a 3-2 council majority as opposed to the 4-1 majority of the past few years.  If we’re wearing our red or blue spectacles this would certainly be good news for Republicans and bad news for Democrats.  But if we take off those spectacles then it’s apparent that voters are more ideologically diverse than the simple Team Red vs. Team Blue distinction would indicate.</p>
<p>For example, a while back I published a <a href="/2011/05/05/post-modern-politics-and-the-pew-typology/">blog post</a> about the <a href="http://www.people-press.org/typology/quiz/">Political Typology Quiz</a> created by the Pew Research Center, which divides registered voters into <a href="http://www.people-press.org/2011/05/04/beyond-red-vs-blue-the-political-typology/">eight different ideological groups</a> ranging from 9% to 16% of the voting population.  Some of the groups don’t necessarily fit comfortably into the left-right divide, for example the libertarians (10% of voters) and post-moderns (“moderates, but liberal on social issues,” 14% of voters).  In an STV system one of those groups (or more likely a combination of them) might have a good shot of getting someone on the council who was more ideologically compatible with that group’s voters than the typical socially conservative Republican or fiscally liberal Democrat.</p>
<p>This all sounds very lovely, but what are the real chances of STV being adopted in Howard County?  In the normal course of events, almost zero.  The traditional way of doing things is too entrenched and politicians and party activists are too invested in it, especially on the Democratic side where the power to change things mostly resides.  But if Calvin Ball and other Democratic politicians want changes to the current system for their own reasons, and are looking to voters to consider changes to the county charter, perhaps that opens up the opportunity to look at other changes that might help balance out the perceived negative effects of increasing term limits.</p>
<p>If so, that moves the chances of a major revamp to the current council district scheme from zero to something at least a tad more than that.  And in any case you can’t fault a fellow for trying.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Electing a council that reflects Howard County, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 02 Jun 2012 10:58:53 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/beyond-term-limits-for-the-howard-county-council/&#34;&gt;my previous post&lt;/a&gt; I proposed a bargain between the voters of Howard County and those who want to extend the time Howard County Council members can serve: Tie the proposed charter change to allow four council terms to other changes that scrap the way we currently elect the council and replace it with something better.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My first proposal is to abandon the use of council districts and return to the days when council candidates ran on a county-wide basis.  However we can’t simply return to the old at-large scheme, which had its own problems.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2012/06/02/beyond-term-limits-for-the-howard-county-council/">my previous post</a> I proposed a bargain between the voters of Howard County and those who want to extend the time Howard County Council members can serve: Tie the proposed charter change to allow four council terms to other changes that scrap the way we currently elect the council and replace it with something better.</p>
<p>My first proposal is to abandon the use of council districts and return to the days when council candidates ran on a county-wide basis.  However we can’t simply return to the old at-large scheme, which had its own problems.</p>
<p>That leads me to my second proposal: Instead of a conventional at-large voting scheme, let’s elect council members using a proportional representation scheme that takes into account voters’ preferences among the candidates and makes it more likely that the composition of the council will truly reflect the composition of the Howard County electorate&mdash; ideological, demographic, geographic, and otherwise.</p>
<p>For some reason proportional representation voting schemes have never taken off in the US, but they’re widely used in other countries.  The details of the schemes can get a bit complicated, but the basic outline of the scheme I’m suggesting is relatively straightforward:</p>
<p>Rather than voting for up to five county council candidates, a voter would rank candidates in order of preference.  In effect each voter would have one vote, which they would give to the candidate who’s their first choice.  If that candidate didn’t need that vote to be elected, or if that candidate didn’t receive enough other votes to be elected, then that vote would be transferred to one of that voter’s other choices.  (Hence the formal name of this particular scheme: the “single transferable vote” or STV.)</p>
<p>For example, consider a hypothetical 2014 county council race in which all current council members except Courtney Watson (who’s instead running for county executive) are on the ballot in the general election, along with some additional candidates from the two main parties and perhaps from one or more smaller parties.</p>
<p>A liberal Democratic voter in Columbia might vote for Mary Kay Sigaty as his first choice, and then add Calvin Ball, Jennifer Terrasa, and Zaneb Beams as his second, third, and fourth choices respectively, declining to name anyone else.  Likewise a conservative Republican in western Howard might vote for Greg Fox as her first choice and then indicate Robert Flanagan as her second choice, stopping at that point.  Every other voter would go through a similar exercise, some ranking a full list of five candidates and others expressing preferences for as few as one or two.</p>
<p>When counting the votes we’d start by looking at voters’ first preferences.  If any candidates were selected as the first choice of more than one-sixth (16.7%) of those voting then they would be automatically elected.  The one-sixth number is chosen to ensure that at most five candidates can be elected, since it’s impossible for six candidates to all receive more than one-sixth of the first preference vote.  If we assume that 102,000 people cast valid votes (about the number of people who voted for a county council candidate in 2010) then the minimum number of votes needed to be elected (the so-called ‘quota’) would be 17,001 (102,000 divided by 6, plus 1).</p>
<p>If the first choices of voters in our hypothetical election matched the votes in the 2010 council election exactly then Greg Fox would receive 17,424 first preference votes, 423 votes above the quota, and would be automatically elected.  We’d then take Fox’s 423 excess votes and redistribute them to other candidates based on the expressed preferences of the voters for whom Fox was the first choice.  For example, suppose Robert Flanagan received 10,427 first preference votes, and 60% of Fox voters indicated Flanagan as their second choice.  Flanagan’s vote total would then be increased by 253 votes (423 times 0.6), giving him a new total of 10,680.</p>
<p>Since this would not (yet) be enough for Flanagan to meet the quota, and since in our example none of the remaining candidates met the quota either, we’d eliminate the candidate with the lowest vote total and redistribute their votes.  For example, suppose Zaneb Beams received 8,732 votes (same as in 2010), and that that were the lowest vote total of any candidate.  Further suppose that 50% of Beams’s voters indicated Mary Kay Sigaty as their second choice.  If Sigaty were the first choice of 14,333 voters (matching her performance in 2010) then we’d allocate to her another 4,366 votes (8,732 times 0.5) to give her a new total of 18,699.  Since this is above the quota of 17,001, she’d join Greg Fox in being elected to the council, and like Fox would now have excess votes (1,698 to be precise) that could be allocated to other candidates based on the preferences of Sigaty voters.</p>
<p>We’d continue in this manner, redistributing the excess votes of winning candidates and reallocating the votes of the least successful candidates, until all council seats were filled.  The details to make the math come out right can get a bit hairy, especially when calculating how votes get transferred in later rounds and having to account for voters who don’t provide a full set of candidate preferences, but that’s what computers and election officials are for.  All voters would have to worry about is ranking candidates in order of preference, and that’s pretty straightforward.</p>
<p>But why should we bother going to all this trouble?  I’ll address that question in my next post.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Beyond term limits for the Howard County Council</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/beyond-term-limits-for-the-howard-county-council/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 02 Jun 2012 00:41:04 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/06/02/beyond-term-limits-for-the-howard-county-council/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2012/05/term-limited.html&#34;&gt;noted&lt;/a&gt; by &lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-political-notebook-0531-20120525,0,4153854.story&#34;&gt;Calvin Ball recently proposed allowing Howard County Council members to serve four terms&lt;/a&gt; instead of three.  The usual opinionating ensued; speaking for myself, although I’m not a huge fan of term limits I don’t think they’re illegitimate either.  In essence they’re an expression of voters’ distrust of politicians and a blunt instrument by which voters try to compensate for perceived flaws in the political system.  Since the political system does have flaws and politicians do act out of self-interest, we can forgive voters for being attracted to the idea of term limits.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2012/05/term-limited.html">noted</a> by <em>HoCo Rising</em>, <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-political-notebook-0531-20120525,0,4153854.story">Calvin Ball recently proposed allowing Howard County Council members to serve four terms</a> instead of three.  The usual opinionating ensued; speaking for myself, although I’m not a huge fan of term limits I don’t think they’re illegitimate either.  In essence they’re an expression of voters’ distrust of politicians and a blunt instrument by which voters try to compensate for perceived flaws in the political system.  Since the political system does have flaws and politicians do act out of self-interest, we can forgive voters for being attracted to the idea of term limits.</p>
<p>I’m less interested in arguing about the merits of term limits and more interested in using this opportunity to put other ideas on the table.  In particular, maybe there’s a bargain to be made here: Why not consider extending term limits for council members, but only if this change is accompanied by other charter changes to improve the way council members are elected?</p>
<p>First, let’s ditch the idea of electing council members by district.  It’s pretty clear that the process of drawing district lines is broken, and I very much doubt that it can be fixed.  As I document in <a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a> and has been confirmed in the most recent redistricting effort, the process of drawing council district lines has always been politicized, whether it was done by the council itself as in the early years or by an ostensibly independent redistricting commission as done at present.  The commission itself is not truly independent, since its members are nominated by the party central committees and its tie-breaking member is selected by the party holding a council majority.  Moreover the council has never been able to resist making further changes to redistricting plans that have already been drawn up based on political considerations.</p>
<p>We could certainly try once again to fix the redistricting process, as I discussed in my post “<a href="/2011/12/14/can-we-take-the-politics-out-of-howard-county-council-redistricting/">Can we take the politics out of Howard County Council redistricting?</a>” However as I’ve also discussed (in “C<a href="/2011/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/">ouncil gerrymandering and the Howard County selectorate</a>”) there are other reasons for avoiding election by districts.</p>
<p>In particular, the smaller size of districts and their dominance by voters of a single party (due both to gerrymandering and geographic clustering of like-minded voters) mean that in practice a council majority could likely be selected based on the votes of a very small group of voters.  (I estimated this to be “as few as 9,000-10,000 people, or about 5% of the total number of registered voters in Howard County.”)  This is not a healthy state of affairs, as it motivates even the most even-handed politician to unduly favor the coterie of party partisans, local activists, and others primarily responsible for their election, to the detriment of other Howard County voters.</p>
<p>Requiring council members to once again run on a county-wide basis would expand the “selectorate” and help motivate council members to take a more expansive view of who they consider to be their key supporters and constituents.  However, as I’ve also discussed (“<a href="/2011/12/18/should-howard-county-elect-council-members-at-large/">Should Howard County elect council members at large?</a>”), just going back to the former system of electing council members at large is unlikely to produce any real change in terms of making elections more competitive.</p>
<p>If a conventional at-large scheme is not suitable, what’s the alternative?  I’ll address that in <a href="/2012/06/02/electing-a-council-that-reflects-howard-county-part-1/">my next post</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Is there something you’d like to learn (that I can teach)?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/04/10/is-there-something-youd-like-to-learn-that-i-can-teach/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 10 Apr 2012 22:48:45 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/04/10/is-there-something-youd-like-to-learn-that-i-can-teach/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As some of you know, I like to learn new things.  For example, I’m trying to re-learn some of the statistical knowledge I’ve forgotten over the years, and as a side project to that I’m learning the computer programming language Python (partly because it’s used by many folks who do scientific programming, and partly because it’s useful for other reasons).  I’m also learning some about mapping and geographic information systems (GIS) as a follow-on to my research on Howard County Council redistricting.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As some of you know, I like to learn new things.  For example, I’m trying to re-learn some of the statistical knowledge I’ve forgotten over the years, and as a side project to that I’m learning the computer programming language Python (partly because it’s used by many folks who do scientific programming, and partly because it’s useful for other reasons).  I’m also learning some about mapping and geographic information systems (GIS) as a follow-on to my research on Howard County Council redistricting.</p>
<p>One of the great things about today’s Internet is that there are lots of free resources for learning most anything on your own.  For example, I’m learning Python from the free online textbook <a href="http://www.greenteapress.com/thinkpython/html/index.html">Think Python</a>, and plan to use its companion text <a href="http://www.greenteapress.com/thinkstats/html/index.html">Think Stats</a> to help re-learn probability and statistics.  However the downside of the Internet is that it’s rather lonely to see at home trying to learn something by yourself.</p>
<p>As it happens my former employer, the Mozilla Foundation, is promoting the idea of learning in informal groups and settings, particularly having people <a href="http://erinknight.com/post/16919261252/mozilla-learning-roadmap">learn about web technologies</a>.  One of the ideas they’re looking at is providing resources for people to hold their own <a href="http://engagingopenly.wordpress.com/2012/02/29/kitchen-table-summer-campaign/">“kitchen table” sessions</a>&mdash;essentially small informal meetups where people can help their friends or family learn about the web and how to make things on it.</p>
<p>And that in turn made me think: Is there any one out there among my readers who might be interested in learning any of the same things I’m currently learning (or already know how to do)?  I’m looking for an opportunity to get out of the house from time to time, and I’d be glad to meet informally to pass on whatever knowledge I can, whether it’s how to create ebooks, how to code programs or web pages (a <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/28/technology/for-an-edge-on-the-internet-computer-code-gains-a-following.html?_r=3&amp;pagewanted=1">hot topic now</a> for many people), how to install and run GIS software on your PC, or even how to do your math homework.  I’m particularly interested in talking with fellow bloggers, journalists, and others interested in researching local topics of interest using the <a href="http://data.howardcountymd.gov/">Howard County datasets</a> that the county government is increasingly making available.</p>
<p>Does any of this catch your fancy?  If so, drop me a line at <a href="mailto:frank@frankhecker.com">frank@frankhecker.com</a> or talk to me at the <a href="http://second-chance-saloon-eorgf.eventbrite.com/">April 11 Hocoblogs party</a> at the Second Chance Saloon.  See you there!</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="dd4c8d64-004"><a href="http://" title="scott@figital.com">figital</a> - 2012-04-11 02:52</h4>
<p>I&rsquo;d like to learn whatever the templating mechanism is behind the new Aurora about:home page &hellip; because that seems to be the gateway between the browser and the desktop &hellip;. sans documentation.</p>
<h4 id="dd4c8d64-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-04-11 12:59</h4>
<p>Unfortunately I can&rsquo;t help you on this one :-(</p>
<h4 id="dd4c8d64-003"><a href="http://gravatar.com/withfries2" title="frank.chen@gmail.com">Frank Chen</a> - 2012-05-27 02:56</h4>
<p>Hey other Frank: how about anything around big data analysis? R programming? Functional programming in general? Commonly used statistical techniques? Hope all is well. p.s. Just watched your cameo on Revolution OS. Cool!</p>
<h4 id="dd4c8d64-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-05-27 12:35</h4>
<p>Unfortunately I have to put thoughts of big data analysis, R, etc., out of mind at least temporarily. I just started a new jobs at Infoblox and most my attention in the near term will be directed at DNS, DHCP, and various aspects of networking. However I am still actively learning Python, so there&rsquo;s that. Thanks for stopping by to comment!</p>
<h4 id="dd4c8d64-005">Ellen Steed (reslaptop@comcast.net) - 2012-06-04 00:52</h4>
<p>Hi Frank, I&rsquo;ve been working as a Six Sigma Black Belt for Quest Diagnostics for the last 12 years. If you haven&rsquo;t been exposed to Six Sigma yet, suffice to say statistical analysis and hypothesis testing is a centra partof the methodology that Black Belts use to improve processes. I am certified by Quest but I want to sit for and pass the certification exam administered by the American Society for Quality. As you know math is not my best subject. Wondering if you would be willing to assist me if I run into a roadblock with the statistics associated with the exam. Hope this finds you and Mona doing well. - Ellen Steed</p>
<h4 id="dd4c8d64-006"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-06-04 22:52</h4>
<p>Ellen, thanks much for stopping by! I&rsquo;m not sure how much I can be right now, since I&rsquo;m still relearning stuff, but I&rsquo;d be glad to try as needed. Feel free to contact me directly at <a href="mailto:frank@frankhecker.com">frank@frankhecker.com</a> if/when you have questions.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Are you a “statist”?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/03/29/are-you-a-statist/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2012 21:07:57 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/03/29/are-you-a-statist/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Some people are fond of using the term “statist” to describe their political opponents.  (I’ve never heard of anyone using it to describe themselves.)  For example, in response to a &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2012/03/campaign-promise-thursday-links.html&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising post&lt;/a&gt; on a fundraiser held by Howard County council member Courtney Watson, Bill Bissenas commented that both Watson and Guy Guzzone (her rumored opponent in the next county executive race) are “statists of the highest order,” in Watson’s case “despite [her] efforts to convince folks otherwise.” In response to which Dave Bittner asked Bill, “you use the term, ‘statist’ a lot.  Could you define it for me?”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Some people are fond of using the term “statist” to describe their political opponents.  (I’ve never heard of anyone using it to describe themselves.)  For example, in response to a <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2012/03/campaign-promise-thursday-links.html">HoCo Rising post</a> on a fundraiser held by Howard County council member Courtney Watson, Bill Bissenas commented that both Watson and Guy Guzzone (her rumored opponent in the next county executive race) are “statists of the highest order,” in Watson’s case “despite [her] efforts to convince folks otherwise.” In response to which Dave Bittner asked Bill, “you use the term, ‘statist’ a lot.  Could you define it for me?”</p>
<p>Bill provided his own answer, which basically amounted to an admonition to “look it up” and a recommendation to read the works of Mark Levin, Thomas Sowell, and Ayn Rand.  I was going to provide my own answer in comments, but since it threatened to run long I’m posting it here.  Needless to say, this is my own opinion and not an attempt to speak for Bill or anyone else.</p>
<p>If you go by the “ultimate authority” (i.e., <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statism">Wikipedia</a>), “statism” is simply “a term used by political scientists to describe the belief that, for whatever reason, a government should control either economic or social policy or both to some degree.” However I think in practice a lot of people use the term more loosely than that, to refer more generally to issues relating to the increased power, scope, and actions of government in lots of different areas, and in this context there are several dimensions of “statism” to contemplate.</p>
<p>While these dimensions are interrelated to at least some degree they are not identical, so people can cherry pick from them to suit their own political inclinations and goals.  Here (in no particular order) are what I think are the major dimensions along which you could be “statist” (or not, as the case may be):</p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>Supporting high (or at least higher) taxes.  But you could lower taxes while at the same time raising government spending if you’re willing to run larger deficits (see items 3 and 6 below), like George W. Bush and lots of other politicians (“conservative” or otherwise) past and present.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Supporting such measures as warrantless domestic wiretapping and general interception of Internet traffic, attempts to achieve visibility into or even emergency control over private corporate networks, onerous security procedures for air travel, or general surveillance of suspect populations and groups without specific evidence of criminal activity or intent.  For the most past these and related measures have had pretty much unanimous cross-party support since 9/11, with no signs of anything changing in the foreseeable future.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Supporting lengthy and expensive overseas military engagements and/or military spending that is arguably often in excess of the real needs of national security.  See also item 2.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Engaging in “nanny-state” paternalism (see Bill’s past comments on Ken Ulman and the smoking ban in Howard County parks) and various types of interference in the private lives of citizens (see Rick Santorum and any number of other social conservatives in the GOP).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Promoting government interference in the economy and general market distortions of various types.  This is generally considered to be a specialty of Democrats, but is far from unknown among Republicans, especially when done through targeted tax breaks and/or special protections for favored industries (e.g., copyright and other IP-related legislation).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Supporting high government spending and tolerating high deficits (which are often but not always associated with high spending).  From a “statist” perspective this is considered especially bad if it’s spending on social programs that are at least partially redistributive in nature.  Some exempt targeted tax breaks (which either raise taxes on the rest of us or increase deficits) and various corporate subsidies (see item 5) and/or high military and intelligence spending (see items 2 and 3) from being “statist,” although it’s not clear why they should get a pass here.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<p>If you take items 1 through 6 together, I don’t think there’s a major national politician who’s not “statist,” except for Ron Paul.  (And I suspect that even Paul has some “statist” tendencies here and there&mdash;though Paul supporters are free to disagree.)  I suspect almost all (if not all) local Howard County politicians, both Democrats and Republicans, would also fail the “statist” test.  In practice “statist” is often just used as a pejorative term for politicians and policies people disagree with&mdash;from that point of view it’s basically the new “liberal.”</p>
<p>Some people who use the term “statist” also come to what I think are silly conclusions, for example that Canada, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, etc., are “socialist” countries.  Canada actually scores significantly higher than the US on the <a href="http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking">2012 Index of Economic Freedom</a> produced by the Heritage Foundation, Denmark is practically tied with the US, and both Finland and Sweden are also ranked in the top 25 countries worldwide.  These countries are not “socialist” by any reasonable definition (e.g., government control of the means of production); rather they are simply capitalist countries (some of them more capitalist than the US) that have relatively high spending on social programs.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that I discount anyone who uses the term “statist” unless they happen to be principled libertarians and are consistent in their positions on each of the dimensions of “statism” I’ve outlined above.  Which is not to say that I think principled libertarians are always or even mostly right in terms of either their policy prescriptions and how they reach their conclusions, but that’s a subject for another day.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Should Howard County Board of Education candidates take the “Audrey Test”?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/03/18/should-howard-county-board-of-education-candidates-take-the-audrey-test/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 18 Mar 2012 23:53:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/03/18/should-howard-county-board-of-education-candidates-take-the-audrey-test/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Technology and education is a funny topic.  On the one hand technological innovation in education holds out the promise of helping students learn better and teachers teach better.  Improving the productivity of teachers in particular I think is key to addressing long-term educational budget issues in Howard County and elsewhere.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the other hand, there’s probably been more hype, blather, and outright b******t associated with technology in education than most other subjects.  Every new technological innovation with some sort of educational application, from television to social networks, gets hailed as the one true path to revolutionizing education.  (For example, I just got the latest issue of &lt;em&gt;Wired&lt;/em&gt; magazine, in which a Stanford professor claims that Internet-enabled online learning will lead to there being only ten institutions in the world delivering higher education&amp;ndash;all the rest having succumbed to the gale force winds of creative destruction.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Technology and education is a funny topic.  On the one hand technological innovation in education holds out the promise of helping students learn better and teachers teach better.  Improving the productivity of teachers in particular I think is key to addressing long-term educational budget issues in Howard County and elsewhere.</p>
<p>On the other hand, there’s probably been more hype, blather, and outright b******t associated with technology in education than most other subjects.  Every new technological innovation with some sort of educational application, from television to social networks, gets hailed as the one true path to revolutionizing education.  (For example, I just got the latest issue of <em>Wired</em> magazine, in which a Stanford professor claims that Internet-enabled online learning will lead to there being only ten institutions in the world delivering higher education&ndash;all the rest having succumbed to the gale force winds of creative destruction.)</p>
<p>Technologists and entrepreneurs can be the worst offenders here, even more so than politicians, since they typically know much more about technology and business than they do about education.  For those folks <a href="http://audreywatters.com/">Audrey Watters</a>, <a href="http://third-bit.com/blog/archives/4455.html">spurred on</a> by Greg Wilson (whom I know from my Mozilla days), has created the “Audrey Test,” or more plainly, “<a href="http://www.hackeducation.com/2012/03/17/what-every-techie-should-know-about-education/">what every techie should know about education</a>.”  The first part of it (the “yes/no questions”) is pretty specific to ed-tech entrepreneurs, but the rest of it (the “essay questions”) I think applies to anyone who’s ever been tempted to expound on the topic of technology in education, or on education in general for that matter.</p>
<p>It would be interesting to see how well our various Board of Education candidates would do on this test.  Is anyone out there up for the challenge?</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="0b0e29f9-001">Corey Andrews (cacoreya@yahoo.com) - 2012-03-19 19:39</h4>
<p>I&rsquo;m not someone who hails the use of technology&hellip; textbooks still get the job done. But I would surely take up the challenge.</p>
<h4 id="0b0e29f9-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-03-19 22:45</h4>
<p>Corey, thanks for stopping by. I too am somewhat of a technology skeptic, having experienced the &ldquo;hype cycle&rdquo; from the vendor side (and working in a sales group). It&rsquo;s interesting you mentioned textbooks. I think the key disruption there is not going to be replacing paper textbooks with electronic textbooks on iPads or whatever, it&rsquo;s going to be replacing high-cost proprietary textbooks with low-cost freely-available textbooks that have equivalent quality (including alignment with Common Core standards) but can be distributed via print-on-demand for $5 or so a (paper) copy. See my recent blog post in which I referenced the Utah Open Textbook Initiative, which is doing just that. I think it&rsquo;s worth looking at for potentially significant cost savings when replacing current textbooks (as opposed to just stretching out the replacement cycle from 8 to 9 years, as proposed in the FY2013 budget).</p>
<h4 id="0b0e29f9-003"><a href="http://lisabmrss.blogspot.com" title="lisabmrss@gmail.com">LisaBMrsS</a> - 2012-03-20 00:19</h4>
<p>Frank, the Open Textbook Initiative is a very interesting idea. I hope you share it with the Board of Ed via email or public budget hearing testimony.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County executives and council redistricting</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/03/16/howard-county-executives-and-council-redistricting/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 16 Mar 2012 00:46:55 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/03/16/howard-county-executives-and-council-redistricting/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As reported by the &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-redistricting-bill-20120315,0,5018702.story&#34; title=&#34;Ulman does not sign council redistricting bill, commission plan to become law&#34;&gt;Howard County Times&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;, county executive Ken Ulman “decided not to sign” the council redistricting bill passed by the Howard County Council by a 3-2 vote, and as a result the original plan proposed by the redistricting commission will become law (per the Howard County charter).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I’ll leave it to others to comment on the whys and wherefores of Ulman’s decision (except to say that he’s been taking a fair number of politically contentious stands for a man who supposedly wants to be elected governor).  I will however note that this is not the first time a county executive has found himself in the middle of controversy relating to Howard County Council redistricting.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As reported by the <em><a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-redistricting-bill-20120315,0,5018702.story" title="Ulman does not sign council redistricting bill, commission plan to become law">Howard County Times</a></em>, county executive Ken Ulman “decided not to sign” the council redistricting bill passed by the Howard County Council by a 3-2 vote, and as a result the original plan proposed by the redistricting commission will become law (per the Howard County charter).</p>
<p>I’ll leave it to others to comment on the whys and wherefores of Ulman’s decision (except to say that he’s been taking a fair number of politically contentious stands for a man who supposedly wants to be elected governor).  I will however note that this is not the first time a county executive has found himself in the middle of controversy relating to Howard County Council redistricting.</p>
<p>To review how we got to where we are: When the election of council members by district was originally approved by Howard County voters the associated charter changes left it up to the council to adopt district boundaries and didn’t explicitly mention a role for the county executive.  (The charter also wasn’t explicit on whether districting legislation had to be done via a council bill or a council resolution; see below.)  When the first district boundaries were specified (in 1986) J. Hugh Nichols, the county executive at that time, declined to sign the council legislation establishing the district boundaries out of deference to the council’s role.</p>
<p>When redistricting was next done (beginning in 1991, after the 1990 census) the then-county executive, Republican Charles Ecker, was much more involved, making suggestions to the council (which had a 3-2 Democratic majority), submitting his own redistricting plan, and eventually vetoing the plan passed by the council.  After a lawsuit and a couple of years of acrimony Ecker signed a compromise plan approved by the council 4-1 with the support of Charles Feaga, one of the two Republican council members.</p>
<p>That traumatic experience led to the creation of a (supposedly) independent redistricting commission to create council district lines.  However the way the commission was selected (with members chosen by both parties and a “tie-breaker” member chosen by the council) meant that its decisions would not be free of political controversy, and the associated charter language still allowed for the council to amend the commission’s plan (assuming of course that it could reach agreement on any such changes).  In the round of redistricting after the 2000 census the council did indeed amend the commission’s plan (after some intra-party feuding among the council’s 3-2 Democratic majority), and the amended plan was signed into law by James Robey, the county executive at that time.</p>
<p>This round of redistricting was shaping up to be a repeat of the post-2000 round, with the council once again unable to resist the temptation to mess with the commission’s plan, and then finally passing a compromise plan (again accompanied by a split among the Democratic council members).  However this time Ken Ulman <del>summoned his inner Chuck Ecker and vetoed the plan.  Note that I say “vetoed” rather than the euphemistic “declined to sign” because I believe that under the relevant charter provision (<a href="http://library.municode.com/HTML/14680/level3/SUHITA_HOCOCH_ARTIITHLEBR.html#SUHITA_HOCOCH_ARTIITHLEBR_S209LEPR">section 209(g)</a>) what Ulman did was strictly speaking a veto</del> (like Chuck Ecker originally and unlike Jim Robey) refused to let the council’s plan go into effect.</p>
<p>Whether this counted as a true veto or not is an interesting question.  To quote from the charter:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>(g) Executive veto.  Upon the passage of any legislation by the Council, with the exception of such measures as may in this Charter be made expressly exempt from the executive veto, the same shall be presented within three calendar days to the County Executive for his or her approval or disapproval, and within ten calendar days after such presentation the County Executive shall return any such legislation to the Council with his or her approval endorsed thereon or with a statement in writing of his or her reasons for not approving the same.  Upon approval by the County Executive, any such legislation shall stand enacted.  Any such legislation presented to the County Executive and returned with his or her veto may be reconsidered by the Council.  The County Executive’s objections shall be entered upon the Journal of the Council, and not later than at its next legislative session, the Council may reconsider the enactment thereof; and if two-thirds of the members of the Council vote in the affirmative, the legislation shall stand enacted.  Whenever the County Executive shall fail to return any such legislation within ten days after the date of its presentation to him or her, the Administrator of the Council shall forthwith record the fact of such failure in the Journal and such legislative act shall thereupon stand enacted.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As noted in an <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-council-redistricting-0308-20120305,0,3545611.story" title="Divided council passes altered redistricting plan">earlier <em>Howard County Times</em> story</a>, the redistricting bill was passed by the council on March 5 and presented to Ken Ulman on Tuesday afternoon, March 6.  The <a href="http://countyofhowardmd.us/DisplayPrimary.aspx?id=6442465220">press release announcing Ulman’s decision</a> states that he “will be returning Council Bill 57-2011 to the County Council on Monday, March 19, unsigned.” <del>and by my reading of 209(g) this constitutes an explicit veto.</del>  In general if Ulman in fact does absolutely nothing with respect to a council bill (i.e., if he were to “fail to return any such legislation within ten days after the date of its presentation to him or her”) then the council legislation in question will be automatically enacted.</p>
<p>However . . . in this case things are complicated because the council passed its redistricting bill so close to the March 15 deadline.  <del>I’m not 100% sure what would have happened if Ulman had simply sat on the bill and never explicitly returned it unsigned.  The bill in question was approved on March 5, but the ten-days allowed for executive consideration actually starts when the bill is “presented . . . to the County Executive for his or her approval or disapproval,” and I’m not sure when exactly that occurred.  As noted above Ulman won’t actually return the bill to the council until March 19, so it’s possible that the ten-day window doesn’t expire until then.</del>  By my reading of 209(g) the ten-day window for Ulman to sign or veto the bill would end on March 16, after the expiration of the deadline.  Since Ulman didn’t actually return the bill on March 15, but merely announced his intention to do so, my opinion is that his action in sending the letter to the council wasn’t a true veto as defined by the charter.</p>
<p>Why didn’t Ulman simply do nothing whatsoever and let the clock run out on its own?  Why explicitly return the bill to the council on March 19, given that the March 15 deadline for enactment of a redistricting bill and the March 16 deadline for executive action would have already passed?  <del>Perhaps Ulman wanted to avoid any ambiguity over whether or not the council’s plan had been rejected and forestall any possible legal controversies.</del>  If anyone reading this knows more about the technicalities or politics around this issue please post something in the comments section.</p>
<p>If the council had gotten its act together earlier then presumably there would have been time for the council to try again to pass an acceptable plan, and if that plan could get approval from at least four council members then Ken Ulman’s veto would have been overridden.  By delaying so long the council essentially put Ulman into the driver’s seat when it came to council redistricting.</p>
<p>I should also note that Ken Ulman can thank Chuck Ecker for establishing the precedent that county executives <del>can in fact veto</del> do in fact have legal authority with respect to council-passed redistricting plans.  Prior to Ecker’s veto and the subsequent lawsuit it was unclear whether the council could pass a redistricting via a council resolution (which is not subject to the county executive’s veto) or needed to pass it as a bill (which is subject to veto).  County Republicans won the lawsuit filed as part of the early 1990s redistricting battle, as the judge in the case held that indeed redistricting plans needed to be enacted via bills, not resolutions.</p>
<p>(However note that per the charter the members of the redistricting commission are to be appointed by a resolution, not a bill, which among other things prevents a county executive of one party from rejecting redistricting commission members appointed by a council majority of another party.)</p>
<p>Finally, some shameless self-promotion: If you’re interested in the back story behind the current round of redistricting and why Howard County does council redistricting the way it does, check out my ebook <a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard: A History of County Council Redistricting in Howard County, Maryland</a>.  The book covers all the above topics and lots more besides&mdash;it’s essentially a mini-history of Howard County politics from before the founding of Columbia to the early 21st century.  To celebrate the conclusion of the current redistricting saga I’m reducing the price of the book to 99 cents; as before, I’m donating all royalties from sales of the book to the local charity <a href="http://voicesforchildren.org/">Voices for Children</a>, which recruits and trains volunteer advocates to represent the best interests of abused and neglected children in the Howard County Courts.</p>
<p>UPDATE: I’ve revised the section above discussing whether Ulman actions with respect to the redistricting bill constituted a true veto or not.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="32b752cd-001"><a href="http://sarahsaysblog.com" title="sarah@sarahsaysblog.com">Sarah</a> - 2012-03-16 10:49</h4>
<p>Interesting analysis and fantastic historical perspective. Thanks for this.</p>
<h4 id="32b752cd-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-03-16 13:27</h4>
<p>Thanks for the comment, though note that I&rsquo;m not too confident in the quality of my &ldquo;analysis&rdquo;. I&rsquo;ve already changed my mind once on what exactly went on (and have revised the post accordingly) and may well have to change it again based on input from those more knowledgeable than I.</p>
<h4 id="32b752cd-003">Kevin Rodkey (kevin.rodkey@gmail.com) - 2012-03-17 01:59</h4>
<p>A very interesting post. As one of the Republican appointees to the Redistricting Commission and the only person to attend every Commission public hearing and work-session as well as every County Council hearing and public work-session, I feel like I could write a book on this redistricting cycle. But I probably wouldn&rsquo;t have your objectivity. I think there were winners and losers with this latest redistricting and Ken Ulman (and to a certain extent Courney Watson) made calculated, self-serving decisions and chose politics over the wishes of Howard County communities. I posted most of this on HoCoRising so I apologize if it&rsquo;s a breach of etiquette to repost it as a comment on this blog. But here are some of my thoughts on the Ken Ulman&rsquo;s decision to not sign the Council&rsquo;s bill. Regardless of whether the Council’s map was truly bipartisan, Ken Ulman is hiding behind a falsehood if he is saying that the Commission’s plan was bipartisan. The Commission was comprised of four Democrats and three Republicans. In the final vote, the three Republicans voted for a map developed by citizen Ray Rankin (not a Commission member but a former Democratic Central Committee member and Democratic appointee to the Howard County Board of Elections). The four Democrats voted for a map submitted by Democratic Commission member David Marker. That map became the map the Commission recommended to the Council. There was nothing bipartisan about the Commission’s map. Ken Ulman should be called to task for the deception in his press release. He said he supported the “map presented by the bi-partisan Commission.” I’m not going to flat-out call Ulman a liar because his press release is too calculated and refined for me to be able to say that honestly. The Commission was in fact bipartisan and the Commission did recommend a map. In a literal sense, his statement is factually correct. Yet, Ulman’s press release creates the impression (or at least invites the inference) that the Commission’s map had bipartisan support. For the reasons stated above, the Commission’s map was not a bipartisan proposal. Is it the first time a politician made a factually correct statement that was also misleading? No. Will it be the last? Certainly not. However, that should not excuse Ulman’s misleading public statement. Moving on to the &ldquo;communities&rdquo; aspect of redistricting, my poker face is terrible. However, I can tell you with a straight face that my primary motivation was creating compact and contiguous districts that were substantially equal in population and respected the public testimony. The common theme from all the public testimony was to keep communities together as much as possible. I knew what impact certain moves had on voter registration numbers and where incumbents lived, but that did not trump efforts to keep communities together. (Map 100, the Rt. 1 map, was intended to be a conversation starter about whether Elkridge had more in common with Jessup, Savage, and North Laurel, as several people at the hearing at the Elkridge library stated) Consequently, I take issue with you saying that the talk about “‘splitting’ communities is mostly putting lipstick on a pig.” I also think the residents of Wheatfield and Brampton Hills would take issue with that characterization. It’s an insult to the six months they invested in the redistricting process. They showed up and testified in numbers at the Commission’s public hearing. They wrote the Commission a score of e-mails and showed up at our work-sessions and voting session to show how much they cared. They testified at two separate Council hearings, wrote dozens of e-mails to Council members, and were there for the Council’s public work session and final vote. They then kept up their efforts and urged the County Executive to sign the Council’s bill. It was a sustained, motivated, dedicated, and intelligent effort by those neighborhoods to remain in a district that, frankly, they should have remained in. It’s a shame that the Democrats on the Commission and Ken Ulman didn’t listen to them. Instead of commending those communities for doing everything the way it should be done in our civil society, Ulman turned his back on them. He failed them. There may not have been a perfect map, but the Council’s map was better than the Commission’s map. Elkridge was not going to be happy under either map. At least the Council’s map respected the will of Wheatfield and Brampton Hills as well as Dorsey’s Search. It’s a poor excuse to say that just because not everyone can be happy then no one can be happy. Yet that’s what Courtney Watson appeared to say when she cast her vote against Mary Kay Sigaty’s amendment. This brings me to the significant role that Courtney Watson played in the redistricting process. Whether she intended to side with Ulman over the Wheatfield community or not, her vote against Sigaty’s amendment allowed Ulman to hide behind the “narrow margin” of the Council vote. A 3-2 vote counts as a narrow margin. A 4-1 vote does not. Watson handed Ulman another excuse for rejecting the requests of her own constituents. In the end, Ulman’s official reasons for rejecting the Council’s bill are lacking as his reference to the bipartisan Commission is disingenuous. I think he made a calculated, partisan decision and he chose politics over the wishes of Howard County’s communities.</p>
<h4 id="32b752cd-004">Kevin Rodkey (kevin.rodkey@gmail.com) - 2012-03-17 02:20</h4>
<p>I need to make a correction: I think some of the Council staff, in particular, Theo Wimberly, were also at every Commission and Council meeting. The staff were consummate professionals and a tremendous help throughout the entire process.</p>
<h4 id="32b752cd-005"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-03-17 02:51</h4>
<p>Thanks for the extended comment. I don&rsquo;t mind you reposting your HCR comment here; I get few enough comments on my blog that I&rsquo;m happy to share one with Tom :-) For the benefits of others though I do want to note that in your comment &ldquo;I take issue with you &hellip;&rdquo; the &ldquo;you&rdquo; referred to is Tom, not me.</p>
<h4 id="32b752cd-006">Kevin Rodkey (kevin.rodkey@gmail.com) - 2012-03-19 03:40</h4>
<p>Frank - I apologize if I created any confusion. As you correctly pointed out, my post on HCR was in response to Tom Coale. I took a shortcut by using the same post here, in a different context.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Online education in Howard County</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/03/01/online-education-in-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2012 23:21:50 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/03/01/online-education-in-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I’ll interrupt my blog hiatus briefly to note today’s article in the &lt;em&gt;Howard County Times&lt;/em&gt;, “&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-digital-learning-0301-20120228,0,7266230.story&#34;&gt;Coming soon to Howard County: a digital school system&lt;/a&gt;.”  The headline is a bit forward looking, as what is happening seems to be equivalent to the Howard County Public School System dipping its toe into the water of online education.  This is an area of long-time interest to me, and I’ll be watching to see where HCPSS goes with this.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’ll interrupt my blog hiatus briefly to note today’s article in the <em>Howard County Times</em>, “<a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-digital-learning-0301-20120228,0,7266230.story">Coming soon to Howard County: a digital school system</a>.”  The headline is a bit forward looking, as what is happening seems to be equivalent to the Howard County Public School System dipping its toe into the water of online education.  This is an area of long-time interest to me, and I’ll be watching to see where HCPSS goes with this.</p>
<p>It’s also an area much over-hyped, and I think it would be wise of people to keep their expectations in check.  This is especially true since it’s not 100% clear to me exactly what the goal of this initiative is (beyond just being “high-tech,” which is not in itself a good reason to do anything).  Is it to better serve students who (for whatever reason) aren’t doing well in a classroom environment?  Is it to (at least in theory) allow for individualized instruction and mentoring of students?  Is it to allow HCPSS to provide very specialized classes that could attract students from across the county but wouldn’t be of sufficient interest to offer at any one school?  Or is it to improve productivity in the system, for example by supporting online class sizes larger than traditional class sizes?  These and other reasons have all been advanced at one time or another for introducing online instruction into traditional education.</p>
<p>The one thing I hope doesn’t happen is for HCPSS to be seduced into some grand technological vision that involves spending tons of money for proprietary software, course content, and services.  There are lots of examples out there of online education initiatives in the K-12 space, and many of them have done good work in terms of leveraging other similar efforts and ultimately providing a better bargain for taxpayers.  One place worth looking to in particular is Utah, which has a number of initiatives ongoing, including the <a href="http://www.openhighschool.org/">Open High School of Utah</a>, an online charter school, and the <a href="http://opencontent.org/blog/archives/2134">Utah open textbook initiative</a>, which will result in the creation of freely-available textbooks that can be downloaded at no charge, printed on demand, and even adapted and re-used by other school systems under liberal licensing terms.</p>
<p>Closely associated with both these initiatives is <a href="http://davidwiley.org/">David Wiley</a> of Brigham Young University, whom I think is one of the best commentators around on the general subject of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_educational_resources">open educational resources</a>; check out <a href="http://opencontent.org/blog/">Wiley’s blog</a> for lots of good thoughts on this general topic, especially regarding how OER has to evolve in order to provide a more complete replacement for proprietary educational material (for example, the need for assessment tools).  I’m looking forward to seeing what HCPSS does in the way of online education, and hoping they see fit to consider OER as part of their general approach.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="cdc88aa3-001"><a href="http://gravatar.com/adampaul12" title="disojapeter@gmail.com">adampaul12</a> - 2012-03-13 03:47</h4>
<p>Excellent Share! An exciting dialogue is well worth comment. I think you ought to compose much more on this matter, it may well not be considered a taboo issue but typically individuals usually are not enough to speak on this sort of topics.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating hyper-local Howard County ebooks</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/01/07/creating-hyper-local-howard-county-ebooks/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 07 Jan 2012 12:40:48 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/01/07/creating-hyper-local-howard-county-ebooks/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;The gist: I spent 100 hours writing a book that sold 10 copies; you should too.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As I’ve previously written, my biggest project of 2011 was finishing my blog series on Howard County Council redistricting and publishing it as an ebook, &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/dividing-howard/&#34;&gt;Dividing Howard&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;.  Viewed from a conventional perspective this was a total waste of time: I likely spent over a hundred hours of my spare time creating a book that thus far has sold a total of ten copies to people other than me.  Yet from my perspective it was a great experience and more than exceeded my own goals for the project.  If you’re a local blogger on Howard County or other topics, or just someone who likes to write, I suggest you consider following my example.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>The gist: I spent 100 hours writing a book that sold 10 copies; you should too.</em></p>
<p>As I’ve previously written, my biggest project of 2011 was finishing my blog series on Howard County Council redistricting and publishing it as an ebook, <em><a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a></em>.  Viewed from a conventional perspective this was a total waste of time: I likely spent over a hundred hours of my spare time creating a book that thus far has sold a total of ten copies to people other than me.  Yet from my perspective it was a great experience and more than exceeded my own goals for the project.  If you’re a local blogger on Howard County or other topics, or just someone who likes to write, I suggest you consider following my example.</p>
<p>Why write a book?  As implied above, not for money: Based on my experience perhaps at most 5&ndash;10% or so of your readers might spring for a low-priced ebook.  Even for a fairly popular local blog with one or two thousand readers this might translate into perhaps a hundred or so copies sold and a few hundred in royalties at most.  Given that there’s extra work involved in creating an ebook (above and beyond writing your blog posts), from a financial standpoint there’s little point in doing it.  (Of course I’m here referring to people writing on purely local topics; if you think you have a potentially profitable take on fantasies or thrillers or self-help tomes or some other popular genre then feel free to go for the gold.)</p>
<p>However if you’re a local blogger writing a book can provide a longer form for topics too big in scope or a single post, preserve worthy posts for posterity, help make you a better writer and raise your public profile.  It’s also a lot easier than you might think.  The main thing is to have something to say that you want or need to say at length.  In my case it was a forty-year history of events that dictated a book-length treatment; in other cases it might be an extended argument that won’t fit comfortably into a 1,000-word post, and that might work better as a short ebook.  By way of comparison, my own ebook is about 35,000 words, while Amazon’s <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html/ref=amb_link_354802082_5?ie=UTF8&amp;docId=1000700491&amp;pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&amp;pf_rd_s=browse&amp;pf_rd_r=1GX6EF9BH0B4Z7G0XH5B&amp;pf_rd_t=101&amp;pf_rd_p=1326127342&amp;pf_rd_i=2486013011">Kindle Singles</a> program accepts submissions in the range of 5,000 to 30,000 words.  If you spend at least four or five reasonably long blog posts discussing a topic then it may be a good candidate for an ebook.</p>
<p>Books, even digital ones, also have a feeling of permanence and importance not found in a simple blog post or series of them: Ten years from now you may have abandoned your blog or moved it, so that the original URL for a post may not work, but an ebook that you publish today will almost certainly still be available on Amazon or Barnes and Noble for anyone who cares to read it.  People take books more seriously as well&mdash;you’re no longer “just a blogger,” you’re now an author (albeit only a self-published one).  If you’re like me you’ll take your writing more seriously as well, from figuring out how to better craft a sustained argument or narrative down to taking more care with spelling and grammar.</p>
<p>Publishing a book can also be more effective at publicizing your ideas, not to mention yourself.  My blog series on redistricting got mentioned in a <a href="http://savage-guilford.patch.com/articles/blogger-dives-into-heated-redistricting-history-in-howard-county">brief article</a> on the Savage-Guilford Patch online site.  That was nice and somewhat unexpected.  Even nicer and more unexpected was that once the series was converted into a book it was covered in two lengthy articles in both the paper and online editions of the <em><a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-12-14/news/bs-ho-redistricting-blog-20111213_1_new-district-map-council-districts-howard-county">Baltimore Sun</a></em> and <em><a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/explore/howard/news/ph-ho-cf-political-notebook-1215-20111213,0,2908664.story">Howard County Times</a></em>, along with quotes from me and positive comments from both local politicians and other bloggers.  If you’re trying to build a “<a href="http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/10/brandyou.html">personal brand</a>” you can leverage in your career or just want to have more visibility and connections within a particular community of interest, publishing a book on an appropriate topic is not a bad way to go.</p>
<p>And, as I mentioned above, creating and publishing a book is easier than ever, especially if you just want to do an ebook and are OK with distributing it just through Amazon and Barnes and Noble.  Your main task, beyond writing the book itself, is getting it into the proper format, with at least three possible approaches to doing that: If you’re most comfortable with putting the book together in Microsoft Word then consider a service like <a href="http://www.smashwords.com/about/how_to_publish_on_smashwords">Smashwords</a>, which can automatically convert your Word document into the most common ebook formats (the proprietary Kindle format used by Amazon and the EPUB format used by almost everyone else) and distribute it to Amazom, Barnes and Noble, and other ebook outlets.</p>
<p>If you’d prefer a more blog-like interface check out <a href="http://pressbooks.com/about">PressBooks</a>.  The PressBooks site is built on top of the popular WordPress blogging software, so creating a book on PressBooks is very much like blogging a chapter at a time.  Unlike Smashwords PressBooks doesn’t support ebook distribution at this time, but you can take the output from PressBooks (in a suitable format) and publish it yourself using Amazon’s <a href="http://kdp.amazon.com/">Kindle Direct Publishing</a> service or the equivalent <a href="http://pubit.barnesandnoble.com/">PubIt!</a> service from Barnes and Noble.  If you want to publish your book in paper form you can also have PressBooks generate a PDF file and publish it through <a href="http://www.lulu.com/publish/books/">Lulu</a> or other print-on-demand services.</p>
<p>If you have some experience with web development you can also create your ebook from scratch (which is what I did), since an ebook is at heart nothing more than a set of HTML files combined with some additional metadata and packaged in a zip archive.  If you’re interested in seeing how it’s done, check out the complete source code for <em>Dividing Howard</em> on GitHub at <a href="https://github.com/frankhecker/dividing-howard">github.com/frankhecker/dividing-howard</a>.  (If you don’t know what this means then this option is not for you.)</p>
<p>No matter what option you choose, it need not cost you anything: All of the services I mentioned above involve no start-up costs; any expenses incurred will simply result in lower royalties&mdash;and since you’re not doing this for money in the first place that shouldn’t stop you.</p>
<p>I’ll close with a list of some hyperlocal Howard County ebooks I’d be interested in reading, in case anyone out there is interested in writing one of them:</p>
<ul>
<li>An in-depth look at the challenges of growing and evolving Howard County’s economy in the 21st century, with an emphasis on moving beyond dependence on Federal spending.  (But, please, no “<a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/">Silicon Valley of cybersecurity</a>” hand waving!)</li>
<li>A book on development in Howard County that puts together all the different pieces of the puzzle (Columbia Town Center redevelopment, the Howard County General Plan, Plan Maryland, and so on) and helps make sense of it all.  (I nominate <a href="http://www.sarahsaysblog.com/">Sarah</a> for this one.)</li>
<li>A discussion of the future of the Columbia Association and how it might evolve to better serve the needs of Columbians.  (This would include a discussion of the CA governance issues that have been exercising Tom Coale and others.)</li>
<li>A history of US 40 in the modern era (1945&ndash;on), discussing its role in suburban expansion out of Baltimore and the various abortive attempts to redevelop the Howard County portion of the Route 40 corridor and make it look less like a 1960s-era commercial strip.</li>
<li>An analysis of the future challenges facing the Howard County Public School System and how it might need to evolve in the face of possible future funding cutbacks and technological changes affecting education in general.</li>
<li>A history of immigration to Howard County and how it’s affected the area (a subject I’m reminded of every time I drive down Route 40 and see all the signs in Korean).</li>
</ul>
<p>Are there any other potential Howard County-centric books you’d like to read?</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="51a2d22c-001"><a href="http://sarahsaysblog.com" title="sarah@sarahsaysblog.com">Sarah</a> - 2012-01-11 13:03</h4>
<p>Thanks for the nomination! I think I&rsquo;d have to pass&hellip; reading about your research sounds exhausting to me (and my undergrad degree is in history!) Kudos to you on your book and your effort though&ndash; I think it&rsquo;s grand.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Previewing my Howard County blogging in 2012</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2012/01/01/previewing-my-howard-county-blogging-in-2012/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2012 10:07:33 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2012/01/01/previewing-my-howard-county-blogging-in-2012/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Following my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/30/closing-the-book-on-2011/&#34;&gt;review of my 2011 Howard County blogging&lt;/a&gt; and related activities it’s time for a look ahead to 2012.  I did a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/31/looking-forward-to-howard-county-blogging-in-2011/&#34;&gt;similar preview last year&lt;/a&gt; and will use it as a guide to what I’d like to accomplish this year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As I noted in my last post, my posting frequency (and hence my traffic) declined somewhat last year.  I would not be surprised to see that trend continue this year, possibly to the point where I’m posting only once every two to three weeks.  Part of that is due to wanting to devote more time to my &lt;a href=&#34;http://math.hecker.org/&#34;&gt;ongoing math study&lt;/a&gt;, and part to needing to do more background research on the topics I want to cover here.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Following my <a href="/2011/12/30/closing-the-book-on-2011/">review of my 2011 Howard County blogging</a> and related activities it’s time for a look ahead to 2012.  I did a <a href="/2010/12/31/looking-forward-to-howard-county-blogging-in-2011/">similar preview last year</a> and will use it as a guide to what I’d like to accomplish this year.</p>
<p>As I noted in my last post, my posting frequency (and hence my traffic) declined somewhat last year.  I would not be surprised to see that trend continue this year, possibly to the point where I’m posting only once every two to three weeks.  Part of that is due to wanting to devote more time to my <a href="http://math.hecker.org/">ongoing math study</a>, and part to needing to do more background research on the topics I want to cover here.</p>
<p>If you’ve been reading this blog for a while you know I tend to specialize in somewhat obscure and geeky Howard County subjects, with an emphasis on presenting at least some data to supplement the discussion.  That will continue, so don’t expect anything from me on “current events”: the 2012 presidential election (or even the 2012 school board election), who’s running for what in the 2014 Maryland or Howard County elections, or anything else that’s likely to be covered in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <em>Howard County Times</em>, or other local blogs.</p>
<p>With that in mind, here are my tentative blogging plans in 2012:</p>
<p>First, I have at least three possible follow-ups to my series on Howard County Council redistricting: First up will likely be a brief discussion of the process of converting the series into <a href="/dividing-howard/">my <em>Dividing Howard</em> ebook</a>, along with how, why, and where other local bloggers might consider doing something similar.  Once the current round of redistricting ends I’ll then consider covering the period from 2002 to the present and bringing out a second edition of the book.  Finally, in blogging about the effect of the move from at-large to district council elections I got interested in alternative voting systems, and so will try to post some about whether and how Howard County could create a better way to elect council members.</p>
<p>One of my biggest regrets in doing the redistricting series and the resulting book was that I didn’t include any actual redistricting maps.  This was partly due to the poor quality of the maps I found in old copies of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> and the <em>Columbia Flier</em> and partly due to the fairly hefty royalties I’d have had to pay to the <em>Sun</em> to reproduce those maps.  What I really should have done was to generate my own maps, but I don’t know enough about working with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_information_system">GIS applications and data</a> to do that effectively.</p>
<p>I’m going to try to correct that deficiency this year.  Most of that work will be my own study and experimenting (for example, working through the <a href="http://blog.apps.chicagotribune.com/2011/03/08/making-maps-1/">tutorial from the Chicago Tribune developers</a>) and hence will not be directly visible in my blogging.  I’m not sure what actual subjects I’ll try to take on; one possibility is visualizing past council election data, another looking at 2010 census data (something I wanted to get to last year but didn’t).</p>
<p>Of other things I mentioned in last year’s preview, I’m still interested in the general tasks of <a href="/2010/12/04/preserving-howard-countys-history-digitally/">preserving Howard County history in digital form</a> and creating HoCo-local applications using government data.  You can consider the proposals I’ve outlined above to be my own promised contributions to those two goals.</p>
<p>We’ll see how I do in fulfilling these promises; in the meantime Happy New Year to all of you who do me the honor of reading this blog!</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="2bf42e0a-002"><a href="http://rocketpoweredbutterfly.com" title="tjmayotte@gmail.com">TeeJay</a> - 2012-01-04 19:07</h4>
<p>Frank, This post seems like a good one to mention how much I&rsquo;ve enjoyed the Work (deserves the capitalization, given the amount of research put into a format that begs for aggregation and reposting) you&rsquo;ve put into the blog. (And book!) I&rsquo;m looking forward to your next year- and remember, number of hits is less important that quality of readership. I think it fair to say you&rsquo;ve taken a position as a thought leader in the HoCo blogosphere (and beyond), even if your pageviews lag behind some of our more prolific friends.</p>
<h4 id="2bf42e0a-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2012-01-05 03:10</h4>
<p>Thanks for your kind words. Certainly if my goal is to drive traffic up I&rsquo;m pursuing exactly the wrong strategy :-)</p>
<h4 id="2bf42e0a-001">alfiando guterez (ker.heck@rocketmail.com) - 2012-01-06 09:00</h4>
<p>hyyyyyyy&hellip;&hellip;..</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Closing the book on 2011</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/30/closing-the-book-on-2011/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 30 Dec 2011 18:54:12 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/30/closing-the-book-on-2011/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Last December I took the opportunity to review my Howard County-related blogging in 2010, and I thought it would be fun to repeat that for 2011, including presenting some site statistics and links to posts I think are worthy of note.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;My biggest project of 2011 was my finishing my blog series on Howard County Council redistricting and publishing it as an ebook, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/dividing-howard/&#34;&gt;Dividing Howard&lt;/a&gt;.  My main goal in doing this was to learn how to create and self-publish an ebook, and having the material mostly already written made it relatively easy to do this; the goal of creating the book also motivated me to finish the series of posts.  Given the specialized topic I expected that I’d be able to count the number of copies sold on the fingers of one or two hands, and that expectation has been met: As of today I’ve sold ten copies to people other than myself.  Adding to that the three copies I bought myself in order to test the buying process, my total royalties thus far are $26.54; I’ve rounded up and donated $30 to &lt;a href=&#34;http://voicesforchildren.org/&#34;&gt;Voices for Children&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last December I took the opportunity to review my Howard County-related blogging in 2010, and I thought it would be fun to repeat that for 2011, including presenting some site statistics and links to posts I think are worthy of note.</p>
<p>My biggest project of 2011 was my finishing my blog series on Howard County Council redistricting and publishing it as an ebook, <a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a>.  My main goal in doing this was to learn how to create and self-publish an ebook, and having the material mostly already written made it relatively easy to do this; the goal of creating the book also motivated me to finish the series of posts.  Given the specialized topic I expected that I’d be able to count the number of copies sold on the fingers of one or two hands, and that expectation has been met: As of today I’ve sold ten copies to people other than myself.  Adding to that the three copies I bought myself in order to test the buying process, my total royalties thus far are $26.54; I’ve rounded up and donated $30 to <a href="http://voicesforchildren.org/">Voices for Children</a>.</p>
<p>As for regular old blogging, in 2011 I did a total of 42 Howard County blog posts (not counting this one), down from 57 in the latter part of 2010 after I started doing Howard County posts.  That amounted to one post related to Howard County (even peripherally) every eight or nine days, considerably off last year’s pace of one every four days.  My blog traffic was also down from 2010; the average number of views was about 56 views per day, compared to 70 per day in 2010, a 20% decrease.  If this trend continues my blog will be attracting only one view a day in 2029.</p>
<p>Here’s a (somewhat selective) list of posts (or groups of posts) I published this year, with additional commentary as appropriate:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>Somewhat ironically for someone who’s not actually a libertarian, I did a number of posts on themes related to libertarianism and the free market, including a rant about <a href="/2011/03/12/maryland-says-no-dtc-genetic-testing-for-you/">Maryland’s discouraging the emerging industry of personal genetic testing</a>, a look at <a href="/2011/10/27/creating-a-blueprint-for-growing-maryland-jobs/">free-market approaches to growing Maryland jobs</a>, and <a href="/2011/11/12/a-letter-to-ken-ulman/">some unsolicited advice to Ken Ulman</a> as he (apparently) prepares to run for governor of Maryland.  Widening my scope a bit I also looked at the so-called “<a href="/2011/03/22/bleeding-heart-libertarians/">bleeding heart libertarians</a>” and the <a href="/2011/04/14/proclaim-liberty-throughout-all-the-land/">history of liberty</a>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Closer to home, I published my somewhat fanciful ideas on <a href="/2011/04/11/reimagining-columbias-village-centers-for-the-21st-century/">reimagining Columbia’s village centers</a>, reported on <a href="/2011/06/02/columbia-and-the-structural-shift-to-walkable-urbanism/">Chris Leinberger’s talk on walkable urbanism</a>, discussed the <a href="/2011/06/01/a-symbol-of-columbia/">old Rouse building as a symbol of Columbia</a>, and pondered the question of <a href="/2011/05/19/in-howard-county-should-charity-really-begin-at-home/">whether I should donate to local charities</a>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>After finishing my history of Howard County Council redistricting I published some further thoughts on the general subject: I wondered <a href="/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/">what type of government Howard County would have had without Columbia</a>, opined that the <a href="/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/">Howard County GOP outsmarted itself</a> on council districts, explored why <a href="/2011/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/">electing council members by one-party-dominated districts can hinder good governing</a>, speculated whether <a href="/2011/12/14/can-we-take-the-politics-out-of-howard-county-council-redistricting/">redistricting can be done in a non-partisan way</a>, and discussed whether we should <a href="/2011/12/18/should-howard-county-elect-council-members-at-large/">revert to at-large council elections</a>.  I also contemplated the curious <a href="/2011/01/18/back-to-the-future-in-howard-county-politics-part-1/">coincidences between the local elections of 1986 and 2010</a>, and revisited <a href="/2011/11/07/revisiting-howard-county-2010-general-election-predictions/">one of my 2010 election predictions</a>.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Finally, in more personal blogging I <a href="/2011/03/17/the-newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program/">bet that I could lose weight</a> using the threat of a Newt Gingrich presidency as a goad (and subsequently <a href="/2011/08/17/weight-loss-update-month-5/">lost that bet</a>), <a href="/2011/08/11/a-personal-milestone-in-math-blogging/">plugged my math blog</a>, and <a href="/2011/10/30/changing-my-blog-name-plus-plus/">re-branded my main blog</a>.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>If you have an interest in continuing to read this blog in 2012, remember that you can see new posts as soon as they’re published by using Google Reader (or another RSS reader) to subscribe to the blog’s Howard County-specific RSS feed (<code>[https://frankhecker.com/category/howardcounty/feed/][http]</code>).  You can also follow <a href="http://hecker.tumblr.com/">my tumblr</a> if you have an interest in what I’m reading and bookmarking.</p>
<p>In my next post I’ll look forward to 2012 and what blogging-related projects I might undertake in the new year.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="88009ec0-002"><a href="http://hococonnect.blogspot.com/" title="duanestclair@gmail.com">HoCo Connect</a> - 2011-12-31 21:04</h4>
<p>Look forward to reading your blogs in the new year. You are truly the best researched blogger we have in HoCo.</p>
<h4 id="88009ec0-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-12-31 23:16</h4>
<p>Thanks. Unfortunately the amount of research needed limits the number of posts I can do.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Should Howard County elect council members at large?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/18/should-howard-county-elect-council-members-at-large/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 18 Dec 2011 13:49:44 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/18/should-howard-county-elect-council-members-at-large/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This is my fifth and final post in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/dividing-howard/&#34;&gt;Dividing Howard&lt;/a&gt; week on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of county council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Previous posts discussed the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/&#34;&gt;role of Columbia in spurring creation of a county council&lt;/a&gt;, the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/&#34;&gt;struggles of Howard County Republicans under the council district system&lt;/a&gt;, the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/&#34;&gt;problems with gerrymandering of council districts&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/14/can-we-take-the-politics-out-of-howard-county-council-redistricting/&#34;&gt;whether it’s possible to make redistricting less political&lt;/a&gt;.  In today’s post I consider whether it would be preferable to go back to the previous method of electing council members at large.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is my fifth and final post in <a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a> week on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of county council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Previous posts discussed the <a href="/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/">role of Columbia in spurring creation of a county council</a>, the <a href="/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/">struggles of Howard County Republicans under the council district system</a>, the <a href="/2011/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/">problems with gerrymandering of council districts</a>, and <a href="/2011/12/14/can-we-take-the-politics-out-of-howard-county-council-redistricting/">whether it’s possible to make redistricting less political</a>.  In today’s post I consider whether it would be preferable to go back to the previous method of electing council members at large.</p>
<p>As I noted in my discussion of selectorate theory, as a general principle it makes sense to broaden as much as possible the pool of voters who can meaningfully participate in electing leaders, so that those leaders will need to put together winning coalitions that are a significant fraction of the total voting population.  Once elected such leaders would then be more likely as a general matter to pursue policies of benefit to everyone and not just to a relatively small band of supporters.</p>
<p>That general principle would lead us to require that a council member attract votes from people all over the county, and not just from those living in a relatively small district.  As described in the early chapters of <em>Dividing Howard</em>, Howard County’s first charter required council members to be elected at large (in fact, no other scheme was permitted at the time by Maryland’s constitution), and the first five county council elections (1969, 1970, 1974, 1978, and 1982) were at-large elections.</p>
<p>Why not revert to the original system?  There are multiple objections I can think of that need to be addressed.  The first objection is that districts are needed to ensure diversity of the council, usually interpreted as racial diversity.  This is the same argument recently used in support of the proposal to elect Howard County school board members by districts instead of at large.  It’s motivated by the fact that at-large elections have historically been used in many jurisdictions to dilute minority voting power, in particular to ensure (in combination with white bloc voting for white candidates) that no African-American candidates are elected to at-large positions even where African-Americans form a significant portion of the voting population.  The question of whether this argument is relevant to Howard County has both a practical and a legal dimension.</p>
<p>Practically speaking I don’t believe that an at-large system would necessarily be disadvantageous to African-American or other minority candidates.  C. Vernon Gray was elected as the first African-American council member in an at-large election in 1982, and today I have no doubt that someone like Calvin Ball would be able to win election to the council on an at-large basis.  Maybe I’ve missed something, but in modern times Howard County just doesn’t appear to have had the type of racially-motivated bloc voting, especially white voters voting as a bloc to reject black candidates, that has been characteristic of many other jurisdictions.</p>
<p>As discussed in chapter 23 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>, in 2001 African-Americans were only 23% of the Council District 2 population, yet local activists saw that as no barrier to electing an African-American council member to replace C. Vernon Gray; as Jared Thornton noted at he time, “A lot of things about Columbia seem to be different from any other place.  We don’t need a super-majority in Howard County.”<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>However whether (re)introducing at-large council elections would pass legal muster is an entirely different question.  Changes made to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act">Voting Rights Act</a> in 1982 (coincidentally, the year of Howard County’s last at-large council election) tightened up the criteria under which at-large schemes could be deemed discriminatory, and in particular did not require actual intention of discrimination.  Thus even if racial motivations were not behind an effort to change council elections to be on an at-large basis, such a change could still face a legal challenge on racial grounds.</p>
<p>However in 2009 in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bartlett_v._Strickland">Bartlett v. Strickland</a> the US Supreme Court held that the relevant provision of the Voting Rights Act affecting by-district vs. at-large elections did not apply unless minorities constituted an actual majority in the area in question.  Since this is not the case in Council District 2 (or indeed in any council district in Howard County) it may be that a change back to at-large council elections would be relatively immune to legal challenges.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Beyond its affect on racial and ethnic minorities, another issue with moving to an at-large election system is its effect on the balance between the Democratic and Republican parties in Howard County.  It’s a common complaint today that Republicans are under-represented on the county council relative to their share of registered voters: As of the 2010 general election Democrats were about 48% of registered voters, Republicans 31%, and independents 21%, with Democrats thus having a 1.56-1 registration advantage over Republicans, equivalent to 61% and 39% shares respectively of voters registering with the two major parties.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>Looking at election data instead of registration data, in the 2010 general election Democratic council candidates collectively received about 56% of all votes cast for council candidates compared to 44% cast for GOP council candidates, with Democratic council candidates under-performing a bit based on the Democratic registration advantage.  If the county council reflected this division then we should expect the GOP to have two seats instead of their current one.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>Would electing council members at large correct this situation?  I suspect that it would not, unless it were combined with additional changes to the voting system.  In the type of at-large elections held in Howard County, both in the past for county council and at present for the Board of Education, the top set of vote-getters (e.g., top five for county council) are elected.  (Political scientists refer to this as a <a href="http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/polit/damy/BeginnningReading/plurality.htm#atlarge">multi-member district plurality system</a>.)  In such a system parties can run slates of candidates, and if voters select candidates along party lines then it is possible that all candidates selected in an at-large election would be of a single party.</p>
<p>For example, in Howard County if the 55% of voters who voted for Democratic council candidates in the 2010 general election were instead to vote as a bloc for a Democratic slate of five candidates in an at-large election, no Republican council members would be elected at all.  As described in chapter 5 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>, this is pretty much what happened in the last at-large council election in 1982, with Democrats winning all five council seats and the only GOP candidate (Charles Feaga) being shut out.</p>
<p>Correcting this situation, so that the party composition of the council better reflects the party composition of the electorate, would require not just the abandonment of council districts but also the introduction of a voing scheme for <a href="http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/polit/damy/BeginnningReading/PRsystems.htm">proportional</a> or <a href="http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/polit/damy/BeginnningReading/semiproportional.htm">semi-proportional representation</a>.  To go back to the 1982 Howard County council election, being the only GOP candidate didn’t help Charles Feaga: The best Republican voters could do was to vote for Feaga only, and no other candidate; however since Democrats significantly outnumbered Republicans this was insufficient to counter the effect of Democrats voting a straight ticket for five Democratic candidates.</p>
<p>One way to address this issue is to allow voters to cast multiple votes for one candidate, so that, for example, a GOP voter in 1982 could cast five votes for Charles Feaga instead of one.  This so-called <a href="http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/polit/damy/BeginnningReading/semiproportional.htm#cumulative">cumulative voting</a> system was actually <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1995-01-08/news/1995008038_1_worcester-county-commissioners-cumulative-voting">considered for use in Worcester County, Maryland</a>, back in the 1990s to address the discriminatory effects of an at-large system on black voters.  Other possible systems would have people vote for parties (not candidates) and then allot council seats on the basis of the total vote received by each party (a <a href="http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/polit/damy/BeginnningReading/PRsystems.htm#party">party list</a> system) or allow users to express preferences between candidates (e.g., a <a href="http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/polit/damy/BeginnningReading/PRsystems.htm#stv">single-transferable vote</a> or STV system).</p>
<p>My overall point is that an at-large system in and of itself, especially like the one previously used in Howard County, would not necessarily address the complaints that Howard County Republicans have about the current district system.  Neither would a system that combined, say, five council members elected by districts with two at-large members.  Electing two members at large would help ensure expansion of the set of voters able to select a council majority (in line with my discussion of selectorate theory in a <a href="/2011/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/">previous post</a>), but given the Democratic advantage in voter preferences it’s quite likely that the two at-large members would always be Democrats, converting the present 4-1 Democratic council majority into a 6-1 majority.</p>
<p>This simple fact is that <a href="http://tech.mit.edu/V123/N8/8voting.8n.html">no voting system is perfect or can be perfect</a>, in the sense of correctly reflecting all voters’ preferences and not producing results that seem to be contradictory to common sense.  If people want to reform the way Howard County Council candidates are elected (a goal with which I’m sympathetic) then they’ll need to take the time to properly sift through the alternatives and (most important) build a strong case to the people of Howard County as to why such a change is necessary.  Recall from <em>Dividing Howard</em> that it took at least five years to convince voters to move from the previous commissioner system to a county executive and county council, and over ten years to convince voters to replace the at-large system with council districts.  For anyone interested in avoiding having another round of council redistricting in 2021, the time to start working is now.</p>
<p>One reason I decided to write my series of blog posts on Howard County council redistricting was to provide a sense of perspective about the issue that I think is badly needed.  One reason I turned the blog series into the <em>Dividing Howard</em> ebook was to make it available for future readers who might be interested in the topic when the next round of redistricting occurs.  If you haven’t already bought a copy, while wait until 2021?  <em>Dividing Howard</em> is only $2.99 from <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dividing-Howard-Redistricting-Maryland-ebook/dp/B006IBW4MW">Amazon</a> or <a href="http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/dividing-howard-frank-hecker/1107873625">Barnes and Noble</a>, and all royalties go to the local charity <a href="http://voicesforchildren.org/">Voices for Children</a>, which recruits and trains volunteer advocates to represent the best interests of abused and neglected children in Howard County courts.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Unfortunately I couldn’t find a current figure for the African-American population of Council District 2, but based on a quick check of Census data for census tracts within District 2 I suspect the proportion of African-Americans in the district is about the same as in 2001, about one quarter; the highest proportion in any one tract is 35%.  (I took the figures from the <a href="http://2010.census.gov/2010census/popmap/">2010 Census interactive population map</a>.)  In comparison, the current African-American population of Howard County as a whole is 17.5% (American Fact Finder, <a href="http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1&amp;prodType=table">Table DP-1, Profile of General Population and Housing Characteristics: 2010, 2010 Demographic Profile Data</a>).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>A good review of the legal issues around at-large elections, including the effect of the 1982 changes to the Voting Rights Act, is “<a href="http://www.mtas.tennessee.edu/Knowledgebase.nsf/0/23E58912098F954885256FFE00648A33">At-Large Electoral Systems and Voting Rights</a>” by Sidney Hemsley.  Unfortunately however it does not discuss Bartlett v. Strickland.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>Registration data is from my <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsbOfsoPgoYPdDdvVEZ4YldZclNMQTVwRmJhcjM0Snc&amp;hl=en">Howard County general election turnout spreadsheet</a>.  This in turn is based on data from the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/">Maryland State Board of Elections</a> for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1988/turnout_1988/general_statewide.html">1988</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1990/turnout_1990/general_statewide.html">1990</a>, 1992 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_alliance.html">Alliance</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1994/turnout_1994/general_statewide.html">1994</a>, 1996 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_reformparty.html">Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_naturallaw.html">Natural-Law</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_taxpayer.html">Taxpayers</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1998/turnout_1998/general_statewide.html">1998</a>, 2000 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_reformparty.html">Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_green.html">Green</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_constitution.html">Constitution</a> parties and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_decline.html">unaffliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2002/turnout/g_statewide.html">2002</a>, 2004 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/general/turnout/turnout1.html">all voters</a> and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/general/turnout/turnout2.html">broken down by party</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2006/turnout/general/county_wide.html">2006</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2008/turnout/general/2008_Presidential_General_Statewide.html">2008</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/turnout/general/2010_General_Statewide.html">2010</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>In the 2010 Howard County general election Democratic council candidates collectively received a total of 57,131 votes compared to a total of 45,590 for all GOP candidates combined.  The totals are based on the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461704&amp;libID=6442461696">official results for the 2010 general election</a> as published by the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/displayprimary.aspx?id=4294968364">Howard County Board of Elections</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Can we take the politics out of Howard County Council redistricting?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/14/can-we-take-the-politics-out-of-howard-county-council-redistricting/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2011 23:54:06 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/14/can-we-take-the-politics-out-of-howard-county-council-redistricting/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This is my fourth post in &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/dividing-howard/&#34;&gt;Dividing Howard&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt; week on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of council council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Previous posts discussed the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/&#34;&gt;role of Columbia in spurring creation of a county council&lt;/a&gt;, the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/&#34;&gt;struggles of Howard County Republicans under the council district system&lt;/a&gt;, and the &lt;a href=&#34;htt/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/&#34;&gt;problems with gerrymandering of council districts&lt;/a&gt;.  In today’s post I discuss whether it’s possible to avoid gerrymandering by making redistricting a nonpartisan affair.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is my fourth post in <em><a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a></em> week on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of council council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Previous posts discussed the <a href="/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/">role of Columbia in spurring creation of a county council</a>, the <a href="/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/">struggles of Howard County Republicans under the council district system</a>, and the <a href="htt/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/">problems with gerrymandering of council districts</a>.  In today’s post I discuss whether it’s possible to avoid gerrymandering by making redistricting a nonpartisan affair.</p>
<p>Drawing district lines, whether of council districts or congressional districts, is one of those mundane political processes that tend to get people excited only when something particularly egregious happens&mdash;for example, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Texas_redistricting">2003 redistricting controversy in Texas</a>, when (among other things) Democratic members of the Texas legislature actually fled the state in order to deny Republicans a quorum to pass a redistricting plan for Texas’s congressional districts.  The usual solution proposed at such times is to “take the politics out of redistricting,” for example by having it be done by an independent and ostensibly nonpartisan commission.</p>
<p>Iowa was a leader in this regard, having established by law in 1980 a special agency (the Legislative Services Bureau, now part of the <a href="http://www.legis.state.ia.us/Central/">Legislative Services Agency</a>) to handle redistricting of Iowa congressional and state legislative districts.  The process has run fairly smoothly since then, with the state legislature approving the plans as a matter of course (sometimes after one or two revisions); the LSA completed the <a href="http://www.legis.iowa.gov/Resources/Redist/redistricting.aspx?planYear=2011">2011 redistricting process</a> in less than three months, with the final plan enacted almost unanimously.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>More recently in <a href="http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/regulation.html">two separate referendums</a> (in 2008 and 2010) the voters of California voted to have an independent <a href="http://wedrawthelines.ca.gov/commission.html">Citizens Redistricting Commission</a> draw up district lines for California legislative and US congressional districts.  The commission members are chosen randomly from a pool of people determined to have the necessary qualifications, with five slots reserved for Democrats, five for Republicans, and four for independents or members of other parties.  Unlike Iowa, the commission itself makes the final decision on district lines, not the state legislature.</p>
<p>As described in chapter 19 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>, Howard County uses a separate <a href="http://cc.howardcountymd.gov/displayprimary.aspx?ID=6442458924">redistricting commission</a> to draw council district lines.  The members of the commission are nominated by the two main parties’ Central Committees; no independents or members of other parties need apply.  (A third party could gain representation, but it would have to attract at least 25% of the vote in the county executive race.)  The county council then appoints the commission’s chair to provide a “tie-breaker” vote, so that in practice the work of the commission is controlled by whatever party has a majority on the county council; the council also has the opportunity to modify the redistricting plan proposed by the commission.  (This happened in the last round of redistricting, and may happen in this one as well.)</p>
<p>Thus the Howard County redistricting commission doesn’t have the independence and nonpartisan nature that advocates of redistricting reform typically call for.  The commission seems to have instead been created mainly as a way to avoid having the county council be involved in the detailed work of creating redistricting plans, while still ensuring that the party with a majority on the council retained control over the outcome.</p>
<p>Making the Howard County redistricting commission more independent (e.g., along the lines of the California commission) would require a change to the Howard County charter, and there doesn’t seem to be any real support at present for making such a change.  In the meantime another possible approach is enabling more public participation in the redistricting process, either as part of the formal redistricting process or as part of a separate unofficial initiative.</p>
<p>As described in chapter 7 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>, when the district system was first adopted in Howard County the League of Women Voters encouraged members of the general public to try their own hand at coming up with a district plan, publishing a pamphlet containing the rules for redistricting and the precinct population data needed as input to the process.  That effort apparently didn’t have any real impact; beyond the limited public interest in the fine details of redistricting, the process of creating districts is complicated enough that it would be unlikely that a typical citizen would be able to come up with a usable plan that satisfied the various legal criteria (compactness, contiguity, etc.) without some sort of assistance.</p>
<p>However recent years have seen growing interest in and work toward creating redistricting applications that can be used by non-experts; these are typically based on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_information_system">geographic information system</a> (GIS) applications with additional software to implement <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2009/01/of_the_algorithms_by_the_algorithms_for_the_algorithms.html">redistricting algorithms</a> of various levels of sophistication.  For example, ESRI, the vendor of the most popular family of GIS applications, <a href="http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/355964/Redistricting_for_the_Masses">partnered with Los Angeles County</a> to create the <a href="http://redistricting.lacounty.gov/index.php/public-access-plan/">Public Access Plan</a> site to allow residents to create and submit their own plans.</p>
<p>Other organizations and even individuals have produced open source software that allows anyone to run a redistricting application for their own use or for use by the general public.  The most notable of such projects is the <a href="http://www.publicmapping.org/about">Public Mapping Project</a>, which has created the open source <a href="http://www.azavea.com/products/districtbuilder/?gclid=CJqKxPCUg60CFcNo4AodIVF54g">District Builder</a> software.  I actually played around with District Builder a fair bit to see if I could get it working, but ran into enough issues that I had to give it up.  For those with more money than time the GIS vendor <a href="http://www.azavea.com/">Azavea</a> (whose developers helped create District Builder) offers implementation services; Azavea also sponsors the informative <a href="http://cc.howardcountymd.gov/displayprimary.aspx?ID=6442458924">Redistricting the Nation</a> site.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>However ultimately the attempts to create “citizen maps” will come to naught unless they receive institutional backing from those who actually have some measure of official input into the process.  In a local context, Howard County Republicans seem to have approached this round of redistricting pretty much as they did the last time, like a football team that always runs it up the middle.  It would have been interesting to see the Howard County GOP change their game plan somewhat and go with an approach that explicitly incorporated public input and participation.</p>
<p>For example, why not put local Republican redistricting experts to work creating a Howard County equivalent of the Los Angeles public access site, have the League of Women Voters or some other nonpartisan group sponsor it, and commit in advance to present as the Republican plan whatever came out of that public process?  In the absence of a council majority the end result would have likely been the same, but the Howard County GOP I think would have been in a better position to lobby against district changes it didn’t like and to gain public support for future changes to improve its position in the redistricting game.</p>
<p>Or maybe the better thing, not just for Howard County Republicans but for Howard County as a whole, would just be to abandon the council district system entirely, and go back to electing council members at large.  I’ll have more to say on that in my next post.</p>
<p>In the meantime I encourage you to check out <em>Dividing Howard</em> if you haven’t already; it’s only $2.99 from <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dividing-Howard-Redistricting-Maryland-ebook/dp/B006IBW4MW">Amazon</a> or <a href="http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/dividing-howard-frank-hecker/1107873625">Barnes and Noble</a>, and all royalties go to the local charity <a href="http://voicesforchildren.org/">Voices for Children</a>, which recruits and trains volunteer advocates to represent the best interests of abused and neglected children in Howard County courts.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="dc46d229-001">Ken Stevens (ksteve8@verizon.net) - 2011-12-15 13:22</h4>
<p>Congratulations on turning your historical study of councilmanic redistricting in Howard County into a book. As a student of politics, I&rsquo;ve had a longtime interest in redistricting at all levels (from the congressional to the state legislature to the county Council). I suppose I&rsquo;m more cynical than most about the prospects of getting politics out of it. When one major party can maximize its advantage in the states where it has the power to do so, the other major party must do the same wherever it can or it is effectively committing political suicide. It took a referendum to set up the supposedly non-partisan California process, Even that (or the one in Iowa) is, I submit, not fully removed from the realm of political interest. You&rsquo;d have to bring in commission members from the moon for that. Just volunteering to serve on a non-partisan redistricting commission indicates a degree of political interest. Although not perfect, maximum political fairness, I believe, would require adoption of an amendment to the US Constitution requiring a non-partisan redistricting commission in every state. As regards Howard County councilmanic redistricting, it&rsquo;s difficult but not impossible for any county resident willing to put enough time and effort into it to come up with a fairly complete plan on their own. I&rsquo;ve presented such plans to the official commissions after the past three censuses. The only real difficulty I ran into this year was getting census block population numbers in certain precincts that i wanted to split. So I had to be fairly general in that one area. Ray Rankin also presented a plan (more than one in his case) to the commission this year. Ken Stevens</p>
<h4 id="dc46d229-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-12-15 13:54</h4>
<p>Ken, thanks for stopping by again. (Incidentally, I hope you know you got mentioned in the acknowledgements of the book.) I too am skeptical about the possibility of doing nonpartisan redistricting; that&rsquo;s why the title of the post is a question not a statement.</p>
<h4 id="dc46d229-003">Ken Stevens (ksteve8@verizon.net) - 2011-12-15 16:42</h4>
<p>Thanks, Frank. I&rsquo;ll have to buy a copy of the book.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>See the <a href="www.legis.iowa.gov/DOCS/Central/Guides/redist.pdf">Legislative Guide to Redistricting in Iowa</a> for more information on the history and operation of the Iowa redistricting process.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>For examples of individual efforts to create redistricting plans and software see the <em><a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2009/01/of_the_algorithms_by_the_algorithms_for_the_algorithms.html">Redistricting Now</a></em> and <em><a href="http://blog.bdistricting.com/">B-Districting</a></em> blogs and the <a href="http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/">Dave’s Redistricting</a> site.  News articles on the phenomenon include “<a href="http://www.stateline.org/live/details/story?contentId=547258">The rise of do-it-yourself redistricting</a>” (<em>Stateline</em>), “<a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704076804576180681670512722.html">There Comes a Time When People Just Have to Set Boundaries</a>” (<em>Wall Street Journal</em>), and “<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2011-03-21-redistricting21_ST_N.htm">Technology allows citizens to be part of redistricting process</a>” (<em>USA Today</em>).&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Council gerrymandering and the Howard County selectorate</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 13 Dec 2011 18:57:13 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/13/council-gerrymandering-and-the-howard-county-selectorate/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This is my third post in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/dividing-howard/&#34;&gt;Dividing Howard&lt;/a&gt; week on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of council council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Previous posts discussed the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/&#34;&gt;role of Columbia in spurring creation of a county council&lt;/a&gt;, and the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/&#34;&gt;struggles of Howard County Republicans under the council district system&lt;/a&gt;.  In today’s post I take a step back and look at the overall impact of having a council district scheme with drawing of district lines primarily controlled by one party.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is my third post in <a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a> week on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of council council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Previous posts discussed the <a href="/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/">role of Columbia in spurring creation of a county council</a>, and the <a href="/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/">struggles of Howard County Republicans under the council district system</a>.  In today’s post I take a step back and look at the overall impact of having a council district scheme with drawing of district lines primarily controlled by one party.</p>
<p>There are really two questions here: First, has there been <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering">gerrymandering</a> going on with respect to council district lines?  I think the answer to this is yes, as evidenced by the past behavior and statements of the people engaged in drawing district lines; see the later chapters of <em>Dividing Howard</em> for many examples.  (Although arguably the gerrymandering in question has been less egregious than in other jurisdictions.)  That’s not to say that it’s simply a matter of evil Democrats and victimized Republicans; there’s no question that Howard County Republicans would return the favor if they were ever in a position to do so.  (And in fact Republicans in other jurisdictions have happily engaged in blatant gerrymandering against Democrats when given the chance.)</p>
<p>Second, why exactly is gerrymandering bad?  There are many answers that people have given to this question: It reduces competition and prevents having a healthy two-party system, it advantages incumbents and discourages “new blood” in politics, it violates principles of fairness, and so on.</p>
<p>However I think a better answer is that gerrymandering works against the nominal purpose of government, to provide for the greater good of all.  A good explanation for why this is the case comes from “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selectorate_theory">selectorate theory</a>“, an idea in political science recently discussed in the popular work <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/161039044X">The Dictator’s Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics</a></em>.  Selectorate theory provides a simple general model of how those who exercise power are motivated to behave, no matter the type of political system in which they operate.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>In our context the important characteristics of the model are as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>The primary goal of all leaders is to remain in power.  (They could certainly also be motivated by more noble motives, like serving the public, but if they do not remain in power then they will be unable to act on those motives.)</li>
<li>Given point 1, leaders will act first in the interests of those whose support is needed to stay in power, and only secondarily in their own interest.  The interests of everyone else will always come last.</li>
<li>When the number of needed supporters is very small relative to the size of population (or, in general, the size of the group over which the leader exercises power) then leaders will attract supporters primarily by providing them private goods not made available to others.  As the number of needed supporters increases to a significant fraction of the total population then providing private goods to supporters becomes less and less feasible and leaders will provide support increasingly in the form of public goods that benefit supporters but are generally available to others as well.</li>
</ol>
<p>In this model the difference between a dictatorship and a representative democracy is not that leaders of democracies are more moral and public-spirited, rather it’s that unlike dictators they must rely on coalitions of supporters that are much larger: A typical dictator might require the support of only a few dozen or few hundred people (key members of the military, intelligence service, personal guard, and various cronies), while the typical leader of a populous representative democracy might need the support of at least a few million people to gain and hold power.</p>
<p>In this light the problem with gerrymandering is this: It lowers the size of the “winning coalition” needed to put a leader into power, and therefore increases the chance that the leader will focus on the needs of the supporters in that coalition to the detriment of the needs of everyone else.  This is most clearly seen in cities like Baltimore that are heavily dominated by Democrats or states like Utah that are heavily dominated by Republicans: In such jurisdictions the general election is essentially irrelevant, the outcome having already been decided in the party primaries, in which the number of people voting is relatively small.  As long as politicians in these jurisdictions can keep their primary voter base happy it doesn’t matter whether anybody else is satisfied.</p>
<p>Closer to home, let’s look at the 2010 general election results for the Howard County Council.  In Council Districts 2, 3, and 4 the Democratic candidates won the general election with approximately 67% of the vote, and in Council District 5 the Republican candidate won the general election with 67% of the vote.  Only District 1 was relatively competitive, the Democratic candidate winning with 53% of the vote.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>In 2010 there were almost 180,000 registered voters in Howard County.  However most of these were irrelevant to the final results.  In particular, since Democratic dominance of Districts 2, 3, and 4 was so complete those races were arguably decided at the time of the party primaries.  For example, in District 4 there were approximately 37,000 registered voters (the so-called “nominal selectorate”), but the race was essentially decided by the roughly 6,200 voters in the Democratic primary (the “real selectorate”), so that Mary Kay Sigaty’s winning coalition could be as small as about 3,100 voters&mdash;less than 10% of the total voter population in the district.</p>
<p>Similar calculations could be done for the other districts.  As it happens both Calvin Ball in District 2 and Jen Terrasa in District 3 had no primary opposition, but if they had it’s likely that their winning coalitions could have been roughly the same size as Mary Kay Sigaty’s.  The net effect is that three out of the five council members, and thus a council majority, could likely be selected based on the votes of as few as 9,000-10,000 people, or about 5% of the total number of registered voters in Howard County.</p>
<p>This is not to say that Calvin Ball, Jen Terrasa, or Mary Kay Sigaty don’t care about the other 95% of Howard County voters; I think they, like Courtney Watson and Greg Fox, in general are sincerely working for the good of Howard County as a whole.  However if there’s something to selectorate theory, and I think there is, then I think it makes sense to arrange things so that politicians need as large a winning coalition as possible in order to get elected.  This minimizes any incentives to favor a limited set of supporters at the expense of others, and maximizes the chances that their actions will be to the good of all.</p>
<p>Minimizing gerrymandering also can help prevent situations where a relatively small minority of voters can thwart the will of the majority and in essence demand special favors for themselves.  For example, consider the current structure of the US Senate: Because of the Senate’s rules on filibusters a minority of 40 senators can prevent legislation from passing unless it is modified to meet their demands (which, per selectorate theory, are really the demands of their winning coalitions).  That minority of senators could then be elected from as few as twenty states, and those could be states with relatively small populations.  If those states are also dominated by one party then in effect the direction of the country as a whole could hinge on the votes of at most a few million people.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>In a local context the <a href="http://www.howardcountygopclub.com/taxpayer-protection-initiative">Taxpayer Protection Initiative</a> promoted by Howard County Republicans could have produced a similar effect had it been passed, allowing two council members out of five to block tax measures.  Those members in turn could be elected with as few as 13,000-14,000 voters&mdash;about 2,500 voters in the Republican primary in District 5 and about 11,000 voters to elect a Republican in the general election in District 1&mdash;and would have the opportunity to hold spending measures hostage in order to extract special favors for their own supporters.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>So what would I suggest we do with respect to the current system of drawing council district lines?  That will be the topic of my next two posts.</p>
<p>In the meantime I encourage you to check out <em>Dividing Howard</em> if you haven’t already; it’s only $2.99 from <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dividing-Howard-Redistricting-Maryland-ebook/dp/B006IBW4MW">Amazon</a> or <a href="http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/dividing-howard-frank-hecker/1107873625">Barnes and Noble</a>, and all royalties go to the local charity <a href="http://voicesforchildren.org/">Voices for Children</a>, which recruits and trains volunteer advocates to represent the best interests of abused and neglected children in Howard County courts.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Selectorate theory isn’t restricted to political systems; it can also be applied in the context of business, for example to explain why CEOs act the way they do.  Also note that for purposes of this post I’ve simplified an already simple model even further.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>These and other figures are from the official results for the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461704&amp;libID=6442461696">2010 general election</a> and <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&amp;ItemID=6442461707&amp;libID=6442461699">2010 party primaries</a>, as published by the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/displayprimary.aspx?id=4294968364">Howard County Board of Elections</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>To take an extreme example, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population">Wyoming is the least populous state in the US</a>, with less than 600,000 people.  It is also reliably Republican; in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Wyoming,_2008">2008 race for the Wyoming Senate seat</a> Republican Mike Enzi won election with over 75% of the vote.  The number of Republican voters in the primary that year was about 70,000, so as few as 35,000 voters could determine Wyoming’s two US senators.  (As it happens Enzi was unopposed in the 2008 primary, but the general point stands.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>Had I thought of it at the time I would have added this to the list of the reasons <a href="/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/">why the Taxpayer Protection Initiative was and is a bad idea</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Did the Howard County GOP help dig its own grave?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 12 Dec 2011 18:04:40 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/12/did-the-howard-county-gop-help-dig-its-own-grave/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I’m continuing &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/dividing-howard/&#34;&gt;Dividing Howard&lt;/a&gt; week on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of council council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Today’s post poses the question: Is the current disadvantaged state of the Howard County Republican party, especially with respect to council redistricting, partly or even mostly of its own making?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Democrats have held a voter registration advantage over Republicans for the past fifty years in Howard County, and that advantage has reliably translated into an electoral advantage.  Since Howard County’s current charter form of government came into effect in the late 1960s and the Howard County Council was established, Democrats have had a majority on the council for all but four years of that time.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m continuing <a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a> week on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of council council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Today’s post poses the question: Is the current disadvantaged state of the Howard County Republican party, especially with respect to council redistricting, partly or even mostly of its own making?</p>
<p>Democrats have held a voter registration advantage over Republicans for the past fifty years in Howard County, and that advantage has reliably translated into an electoral advantage.  Since Howard County’s current charter form of government came into effect in the late 1960s and the Howard County Council was established, Democrats have had a majority on the council for all but four years of that time.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>That in turn has translated into Democrats having ultimate control over drawing the district lines for county council elections.  The later chapters of <em>Dividing Howard</em> are filled with complaints from local Republicans about Democratic gerrymandering of council districts and exhortations to draw council district lines in a way that is allegedly more fair.</p>
<p>As it happens I too am concerned about the possibility of gerrymandering, both with county council districts and more generally.  (I’ll have more to say about this soon.)  However at the same time I don’t see local Republicans simply as innocent victims of a dastardly Democratic plot.  To a large degree Howard County Republicans are complicit in the creation of the current council system under which they’re struggling to achieve electoral success.</p>
<p>First, as I discussed in yesterday’s post, if the planned community of Columbia had not been established then Howard County would likely have remained under the county commissioner form of government; it was local Republican leaders who originally formed the “How-Char-Go Committee” to promote switching Howard County to a charter form of government, and local Democratic leaders who pushed back, telling voters to reject a charter referendum in the 1964 general election (which the voters proceeded to do).  Local Democrats eventually joined the charter movement, but there’s no question it started out as a Republican project.</p>
<p>In retrospect Howard County Republicans clearly didn’t realize that the establishment of Columbia would lead to a major influx of liberal Democrat voters, and any “buyer’s remorse” they might have felt is completely understandable.  (See for example local Republican leader Charles Miller’s comments in 1977 on the tenth anniversary of Columbia, in which he expresses regret at having listened to Jim Rouse’s sale pitch.)  However rather than accepting the new situation and trying to do their best to deal with it electorally, Republicans then proceeded to make it arguably worse from their point of view.</p>
<p>More specifically, when the Howard County Council was originally established in 1969 there were no council districts.  All Howard County Council members were elected at large.  However as discussed in chapter 2 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>, in the 1974 general election the growing population of Columbia led to the election of four Columbia Democrats to the county council, as well as the election of a county executive (Edward Cochran, father of Courtney Watson) who was sympathetic to the concerns of Columbia voters.</p>
<p>As outlined in chapters 3 through 6 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>, the result was a growing backlash in the rest of the county against Columbia’s political power, a backlash that led to a push by local Republicans and conservative Democrats to elect council members by district, in order to minimize as much as possible the influence of Columbia voters.  In fact, the original district proposal would have expanded the council from five members to seven, and would have required that the five council incumbents, including the four council members from Columbia, compete in only two council districts of the seven proposed&mdash;this at a time when Columbia voters were approaching half of the Howard County electorate.  No wonder 80% of Columbia voters rejected this plan in 1976.</p>
<p>Undeterred, local Republicans continued to join conservative Democrats in pushing for a council district scheme: Local Republican leader Charles Feaga led a petition drive to revive the seven-district scheme in 1980 after a Democrat-dominated commission had rejected the scheme.  After his unsuccessful council bid in 1982 (in which he came in sixth as Democrats won all five at-large council positions) Feaga continued to push for establishment of council districts, along with other Republicans.  Once council districts were approved by Howard County voters in 1984 Feaga was able to take advantage of the district system to finally become the first (and at that time, only) Republican council member in 1986.</p>
<p>So although Republicans were not the sole force behind the creation of council districts (I think the role of conservative Democrats outside of Columbia was more important), they certainly were consistently vocal in support of the district system and happy to see it established.  Once districts were actually in place Republicans found themselves on the losing end of the council redistricting game, beginning with the 1986 redistricting effort, since the council was empowered to draw district lines and the council still had a Democratic majority.  That’s when the Republican complaints of Democratic gerrymandering began.</p>
<p>Subsequently Howard County Republicans arguably botched their best chance of countering such gerrymandering.  After the 1990 election of Republican Charles Ecker as county executive, Republicans were able to throw some sand in the gears of the redistricting process, using Ecker’s veto and a subsequent lawsuit, but still lacked the council majority necessary to control the process.  However in 1994 Ecker won re-election and Republicans won a three-seat majority on the county council, as Feaga was joined by Darrell Drown and Dennis Schrader.  If the Republicans had been able to repeat that success in 1998 then they would have been in a position to control council redistricting after the 2000 census.</p>
<p>However in 1998 Ecker had to step down due to term limits and Darrel Drown declined to run again for personal reasons.  Charles Feaga and Dennis Schrader chose to give up their council seats and run against each other for the county executive position.  This meant that there were open seats in all three council districts previously held by Republicans.  Allan Kittleman succeeded Feaga in the safe Republican seat in western Howard, and Chris Merdon was able to hold Drown’s Ellicott City seat for the GOP.  However in the absence of Dennis Schrader Republicans lost the District 3 seat in southeastern Howard to Democrat Guy Guzzone, and Schrader himself lost to James Robey in the county executive race.</p>
<p>The result was that a Democratic-majority county council had control of the council redistricting process after the 2000 census, and (unlike 1990) they had a Democratic county executive to back them up.  That same situation holds true after the 2010 general election, except that Republicans have further lost ground on the county council, now retaining only the western Howard seat originally won by Charles Feaga back in 1986.</p>
<p>However as I said above, even if Howard County Republicans have committed a number of own goals in getting to their current state, I still think they have have a good general point about the undesirability of the current district system in terms of providing opportunities for gerrymandering.  I’ll have more to say about that topic beginning with my next post.</p>
<p>In the meantime I encourage you to check out <em>Dividing Howard</em> if you haven’t already; it’s only $2.99 from <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dividing-Howard-Redistricting-Maryland-ebook/dp/B006IBW4MW">Amazon</a> or <a href="http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/dividing-howard-frank-hecker/1107873625">Barnes and Noble</a>, and all royalties go to the local charity <a href="http://voicesforchildren.org/">Voices for Children</a>, which recruits and trains volunteer advocates to represent the best interests of abused and neglected children in Howard County courts.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The footnote to my post “<a href="/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">Howard County likely voters in the 2010 general election</a>” has links to party voter registration and electoral composition data for Howard County elections since 1988.  For more on the Howard County charter push, including more quotes and complete links to primary sources, see chapter 1 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>No Columbia, no Howard County Council?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 11 Dec 2011 18:51:23 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/11/no-columbia-no-howard-county-council/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This is &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/dividing-howard/&#34;&gt;Dividing Howard&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt; week here on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of council council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Today’s post poses the question: If Columbia didn’t exist in its present form, would Howard County have a county council and county executive?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In his recent post “&lt;a href=&#34;http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2011/11/meanwhile-in-an-alternate-universe.html&#34;&gt;Meanwhile, in an alternate universe…&lt;/a&gt;” Bill Woodcock of &lt;a href=&#34;http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/&#34;&gt;53 Beers on Tap&lt;/a&gt; speculated on what would have happened in Howard County if the planned community of Columbia had never been built.  His conclusion:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is <em><a href="/dividing-howard/">Dividing Howard</a></em> week here on my blog, as I discuss some topics related to my new book on the history of council council redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, and the broader events of Howard County politics from 1960 on.  Today’s post poses the question: If Columbia didn’t exist in its present form, would Howard County have a county council and county executive?</p>
<p>In his recent post “<a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2011/11/meanwhile-in-an-alternate-universe.html">Meanwhile, in an alternate universe…</a>” Bill Woodcock of <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/">53 Beers on Tap</a> speculated on what would have happened in Howard County if the planned community of Columbia had never been built.  His conclusion:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Howard County would have developed further along its major highways&mdash;I-70, US 40, US 29, US 1.  . . .</p>
<p>Without a major population center, rather several smaller ones, Howard County would’ve become an exurb of Baltimore and DC rather than a suburb.  Pressure would be great to build more homes in Howard, absent a major employer or tax base.  …</p>
<p>In short, life in Howard County would have become radically different.  Howard County would have become a balkanized bedroom community with no identity or clear sense of purpose.  It would become southern Carroll County, on steroids.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I think this is pretty much on the mark.  However at one point Bill mentions in passing what “the new charter government” would have done in the absence of Columbia.  This is where I differ from him: As I discuss in chapter 1 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>, the fact that Howard County has a charter form of government, that is, a county council and county executive, is pretty much a direct result of the establishment of Columbia.</p>
<p>As Lewis Nippard, a member of the committee pushing for a charter change, said back in September 1963, “We do not believe the [existing] county commissioner form of government can meet the needs of the future as the county population begins to increase toward astronomical levels.” Nippard and others also pointed to the fact that Howard County had no incorporated towns or cities (in fact, it still doesn’t), and thus no real local government beyond the three county commissioners, who had to look to the Maryland General Assembly to enact any legislation needed to address Howard County local issues.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>As it turned out, Nippard was right about the “astronomical level” of population growth; as Columbia was created and new residents flooded in beginning in the late 1960s, Howard County population growth grew to over 10% a year, a rate that would have doubled the county population every seven years if it had been sustained.  (See my blog post “<a href="/2010/11/29/howard-county-population-growth-1950-2009/">Howard County population growth, 1950&ndash;2009</a>“ for more on this.)  Absent the prospect of that growth I suspect that Howard County would have remained under the existing county commissioner system, and at most there would have been a push to formally incorporate Ellicott City (as Bill speculates).</p>
<p>The experience of neighboring counties is a guide here: Both <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_County,_Maryland">Frederick County</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carroll_County,_Maryland">Carroll County</a> are situated similarly to Howard County in terms of their proximity to major major metropolitan areas, and both have experienced exurban development over the years.  However neither of them had comparable developments to that of Columbia, and both also had existing incorporated towns and cities.  Although both counties have considered or are considering moving to a charter form of government, both still remain governed by a Board of Commissioners.  If Columbia had never existed I strongly suspect this would be true of Howard County as well.</p>
<p>One other key thing to note about Carroll and Frederick counties is that every county commissioner in both counties is a Republican.  I’ll have more to say on that topic in my next post.</p>
<p>In the meantime I encourage you to check out <em>Dividing Howard</em> if you haven’t already; it’s only $2.99 from <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dividing-Howard-Redistricting-Maryland-ebook/dp/B006IBW4MW">Amazon</a> or <a href="http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/dividing-howard-frank-hecker/1107873625">Barnes and Noble</a>, and all royalties go to the local charity <a href="http://voicesforchildren.org/">Voices for Children</a>, which recruits and trains volunteer advocates to represent the best interests of abused and neglected children in Howard County courts.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>For more on the Howard County charter push, including more quotes and complete links to primary sources, see chapter 1 of <em>Dividing Howard</em>.</p>
<p>For more on the various forms of government allowed for Maryland counties, see the page “<a href="http://www.mdcounties.org/counties/forms_of_government.cfm">Forms of County Government</a>” published by the Maryland Association of Counties, and the documents linked to from that page.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>My new book on Howard County Council redistricting</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/07/my-new-book-on-howard-county-council-redistricting/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 07 Dec 2011 18:47:52 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/12/07/my-new-book-on-howard-county-council-redistricting/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;For those of you who enjoyed my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/&#34;&gt;blog posts on Howard County Council redistricting&lt;/a&gt; so much that you’d like to read them all again in one convenient package, your wait is over: I’m proud to announce the publication of my new book &lt;em&gt;Dividing Howard&lt;/em&gt;: A History of County Council Redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, now available &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.amazon.com/Dividing-Howard-Redistricting-Maryland-ebook/dp/B006IBW4MW&#34; title=&#34;Dividing Howard, A History of County Council Redistricting in Howard County, Maryland&#34;&gt;for the Kindle from Amazon.com&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/dividing-howard-frank-hecker/1107873625&#34;&gt;for the Nook from Barnes and Noble&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those of you who enjoyed my <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">blog posts on Howard County Council redistricting</a> so much that you’d like to read them all again in one convenient package, your wait is over: I’m proud to announce the publication of my new book <em>Dividing Howard</em>: A History of County Council Redistricting in Howard County, Maryland, now available <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dividing-Howard-Redistricting-Maryland-ebook/dp/B006IBW4MW" title="Dividing Howard, A History of County Council Redistricting in Howard County, Maryland">for the Kindle from Amazon.com</a> and <a href="http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/dividing-howard-frank-hecker/1107873625">for the Nook from Barnes and Noble</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Dividing-Howard-Redistricting-Maryland-ebook/dp/B006IBW4MW"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/dividing-howard-cover.jpg#floattopright" title="Dividing Howard"></a>I’m selling the book for $2.99, and will donate all royalties I receive (about $2 per copy) to <a href="http://voicesforchildren.org/">Voices for Children</a>, the Court Appointed Special Advocate (CASA) program in Howard County.  Voices for Children recruits and trains volunteer advocates to represent the best interests of abused and neglected children in the Howard County Courts.  I’ll post updates from time to time on how many copies of the book I’ve sold and how much I’ve been able to donate.</p>
<p>To answer some questions you may have:</p>
<p>You don’t actually need a Kindle or Nook device to read the book; you can use the Kindle or Nook applications for iPhone, iPad, and Android phones and tablets, available at no charge from the application stores for those devices.  Don’t have a smartphone or tablet?  You can use the Kindle or Nook applications for PC or Mac instead; just google “Kindle PC,” “Nook Mac,” and so on to find the application of your choice.</p>
<p>At this time I don’t have versions of the book available for download directly to the iBooks ereader application for iPhone or iPad or to ereader devices from Kobo, Sony, and others.  That’s because those ereaders and their associated online stores don’t support an easy-t0-use no-charge self-publishing system like those provided by Amazon.com (<a href="https://kdp.amazon.com/self-publishing/signin">Kindle Direct Publishing</a>) and Barnes and Noble (<a href="http://pubit.barnesandnoble.com/pubit_app/bn?t=pi_reg_home">PubIt!</a>).  However if your ereader device or application supports the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPUB">EPUB ebook format</a> and “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sideloading">sideloading</a>” content then you can buy the Barnes and Noble version for the Nook application for PC or Mac, make a copy of the resulting EPUB-format file (which is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_rights_management">DRM</a>-free), and load it for use in your favorite ereader.  (Ask your tech-y friends if you need more information on how to do this.)</p>
<p>At this time I have no plans to publish a print version of the book.  Beyond the extra work involved, I’ve tried to take advantage of the ebook format and have included a lot of web links to primary sources.  <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_copy">You can’t grep a dead tree</a>, as the saying goes, and you can’t click on a link on one either.  However if there’s a lot of people wanting this and I have copious spare time in the next month or two then I might reconsider.</p>
<p>Finally, the book ends where the blog series does, with the passage of the redistricting bill after the 2001 census (almost exactly ten years ago, as it happens).  After the current round of redistricting ends I may produce a second edition that brings the story up to the present day, again depending on your interest and my time.</p>
<p>In the meantime buy the book, tell your friends, write a review or send me your suggestions on how to improve it.  Thanks to all of you for reading the series over the past year and for providing the inspiration to collect it into book form.</p>
<p>P.S.  A final note: There’s a minor glitch with the Kindle version of the book that causes the book to open to the last page the first time you read it after downloading.  (Once you start reading it in the right place then the Kindle will remember where you were after that.)  There may also be a few remaining typos I haven’t caught.  At some point I may issue an updated version of the book and replace the current version on Amazon.com and Barnes and Noble.  If and when I do that I’ll post instructions on how you can update your copy if you’d like to do that.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="4af0cc30-002"><a href="http://N/A" title="abeltram@verizon.net">Angela Beltram</a> - 2011-12-17 14:13</h4>
<p>When the people voted to have districts, it was opposed by many people who realized that since the County Council sits as the Zoning Board, there was no way that four out of five could be held &ldquo;accountable&rdquo; for the actions of the majority. &ldquo;Accountability&rdquo; is the word people use who continue to support the Council as the Zoning board. There have been proposals to have a &ldquo;Hearing Officer&rdquo; who would be an &ldquo;expert&rdquo; in land use Maryland law and who would be much stricter that an elected Board who sometimes make &ldquo;political&rdquo; decisions on land use. There also has been some support for expanding the Council to 7 members with two running at large. That way, those two would have a &ldquo;global&rdquo; view of issues in the County and at the same time provide the citizens with a potential choice of voting for three ( a district represenative and two additional at large). I believe this will occur next time. For all the ballyhooing from the black community and the Republicans, they got what they wanted &ndash; districts. As stated by you and by me, personally at the hearings on the proposed idea of &ldquo;districts&rdquo; for School Board, I stated that C. Vernon Gray was elected over 25 years ago without &ldquo;districts&rdquo; and continued again to do so. So&hellip;I may not be around for the &ldquo;next time&rdquo; but you may remember these arguments.</p>
<h4 id="4af0cc30-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-12-17 22:23</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to comment! I very much appreciate hearing from people with first-hand knowledge of what went on.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 23</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-23/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 28 Nov 2011 22:32:30 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-23/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/27/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-22/&#34;&gt;part 22&lt;/a&gt; the redistricting commission created an initial set of proposed council district maps.  In this post the commission makes its final recommendation and the council acts on it, as we also see the emergence of some fresh faces in Howard County politics.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;August 2001.  Speculation arises over future council candidates, and in particular over who will succeed the retiring Mary Lorsung in District 4.  At the center of attention is 27-year-old Columbia native Ken Ulman, championed by District 3 incumbent Guy Guzzone and other local and state Democratic politicians.  Republican hopeful Greg Fox, who ran unsuccessfully against Lorsung in 1998, puts his own plans on hold pending resolution of council redistricting, which might put his Fulton home in any one of Districts 3, 4, or 5.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2011/11/27/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-22/">part 22</a> the redistricting commission created an initial set of proposed council district maps.  In this post the commission makes its final recommendation and the council acts on it, as we also see the emergence of some fresh faces in Howard County politics.</p>
<p>August 2001.  Speculation arises over future council candidates, and in particular over who will succeed the retiring Mary Lorsung in District 4.  At the center of attention is 27-year-old Columbia native Ken Ulman, championed by District 3 incumbent Guy Guzzone and other local and state Democratic politicians.  Republican hopeful Greg Fox, who ran unsuccessfully against Lorsung in 1998, puts his own plans on hold pending resolution of council redistricting, which might put his Fulton home in any one of Districts 3, 4, or 5.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the redistricting commission winnows the number of plans down from five to three, moving forward with the Democratic plans proposed by David Marker and Priscilla Hart and the Republican plan proposed by Michael Deets.  Deets modifies his plan to keep Kings Contrivance and thus Guy Guzzone in District 3 (“I’m hoping that will be more to his liking”) but regrets abandoning his proposal to keep all of Columbia within District 2 and 4 (“I never bought into the idea that a community that represents 40 percent of the county’s population should get 60 percent of the County Council”).  Marker focuses on not diluting the voting strength of minorities in Districts 2, 3, and 4 (“Any plan that doesn’t keep them strong in three districts could be attacked for weakening minority representation”) while Warren Miller stresses the need for better equalizing the number of Democrats and Republicans in those districts, claiming that Republicans are “close to having parity” in the county.</p>
<p>In any case expectations are that a Democratic plan will prevail given the composition of the redistricting commission and the county council (“They have the votes,” notes District 5 incumbent Allan Kittleman), and David Marker sees a path to a compromise between his plan and that of fellow Democrat Priscilla Hart.  Guy Guzzone professes no hard feelings over the attempt of Michael Deets to redistrict him out of District 3 (“Would I get mad at someone for doing what’s best for their party?  No.  I understand where they’re coming from”) while Allan Kittleman accepts the inevitable outcome (“I will be happy to represent anyone they put in my district.  Whatever they want to give me, I’ll take”).</p>
<p>(Michael Cody, “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6026801/political-jockeying-under-way/">Political jockeying under way</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, August 9, 2001; Laura Cadiz, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-08-15/news/0108150156_1_deets-district-4-district-3">Redistricting plans picked for hearing</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/77827357.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+15%2C+2001&amp;author=Laura+Cadiz&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redistricting+plans+picked+for+hearing+Political+parties+struggle+for+control+of+County+Council%3B+3+plans+on+table%3B+Proposals+to+redraw+districts+winnowed+by+commission%3B+Howard+County">August 15, 2001, 1B</a>; Laura Cadiz, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-08-19/news/0108190330_1_district-4-district-3-district-boundaries">Redistricting apt to favor status quo</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/78203748.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+19%2C+2001&amp;author=Laura+Cadiz&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redistricting+apt+to+favor+status+quo+New+lines+expected+to+maintain+3-2+division+on+council%3B+Public+hearing+Sept.+13%3B+Republican+plan+not+likely+to+dilute+Democratic+power">August 19, 2001, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>September 2001.  As the redistricting commission prepares for public hearings on the (now) three plans, speculation about future county council candidates shifts to District 2, where a previously-passed term limits measure means Democratic incumbent C. Vernon Gray will have to step down after a run of five terms and 20 years on the council.  Local activists lament the absence of any African-American candidates to replace Gray (“We’re still struggling for representation here.  I think there needs to be a wake-up call,” says the Rev. John Wright) while the Howard County NAACP stays out of the fray (“We’re not a political group,” notes chapter president Thelma Lucas) and Gray himself declines to recruit a successor (“[It’s] unreasonable for someone in political office to drag someone into the political process”).  In the absence of a clear front-runner several potential candidates ponder their options, including Cameron Miles of Ellicott City and 26-year-old Calvin Ball III of Columbia.  Meanwhile in District 4 community activist Mary Kay Sigaty joins Ken Ulman as a potential county council candidate now that Mary Lorsung is retiring (“There’s no way I would run against [Lorsung].  She’s very good at what she does,” notes Sigaty).</p>
<p>A public hearing on the three proposed plans is as sparsely attended as previous redistricting commission hearings, with 14 attendees of which nine make public statements.  However the speakers make up in intensity what they lack in numbers, as former council candidate John Taylor complains about being moved from District 4 to District 5, Sherman Howell worries about changes to District 2 making it harder to elect an African-American candidate to replace C. Vernon Gray, Republicans Louis Pope and Kirk Halpin protest the relatively wide population variations between the districts in the Democratic plans, and Libertarian council candidate David Margolis criticizes the entire redistricting process (“All of you have played political games.  Your arrogance has been on display from Day 1”).</p>
<p>The redistricting commission prepares to select one of the three remaining plans to recommend to the council.  Facing certain defeat for their own plan, Republicans call for a vote to approve the plan proposed by Democratic commission member Priscilla Hart.  Commission chair David Marker issues a whispered warning to Hart (“Priscilla, you can’t vote for this!”) and Hart abstains from the vote “out of party loyalty” (“I was caught in the middle”).  The vote fails 3&ndash;3 with Hart abstaining, and the commission proceeds to approve the other Democratic plan (with a few amendments) by a 4&ndash;3 margin.  Marker expresses regret at the party-line vote (“I thought we compromised a lot.  I was disappointed”) while Republican commission member Michael Deets begs to differ (“Democrats weren’t even willing to accede to our standards of fairness”).  The plan extends District 5 to encompass parts of Fulton and Scaggsville, moves Dorsey Search from District 1 into District 4 with the rest of west Columbia, and puts almost all of Owen Brown into District 3.</p>
<p>(Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-09-09/news/0109090101_1_county-council-council-seat-howard-county">No one vying to fill Gray’s council seat</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/80239464.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+9%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=No+one+vying+to+fill+Gray%27s+council+seat+Several+consider+bid+for+post+Democrat+can%27t+seek+again%3B+Term+limit+bars+incumbent%3B+Lack+of+successor+for+black+councilman+a+surprise+to+many">September 9, 2001, 1B</a>; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-09-17/news/0109170206_1_lorsung-sigaty-west-columbia">Differences help define hopefuls for council post</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/81026612.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+17%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Differences+help+define+hopefuls+for+council+post+Ulman%2C+Sigaty+seek+west+Columbia+seat">September 17, 2001, 1B</a>; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-09-09/news/0109090149_1_county-council-democratic-plans-howard-county">Public hearing on tap for voting districts</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/80239477.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+9%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Public+hearing+on+tap+for+voting+districts+3+redistricting+plans+to+go+before+residents+Thursday+night">September 9, 2001, 1B</a>; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-09-16/news/0109160225_1_district-4-district-5-columbia-district">Council district plans critiqued</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/81026566.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+16%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council+district+plans+critiqued+All+three+proposals+found+lacking+by+speakers+at+hearing">September 16, 2001, 1B</a>; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-09-21/news/0109210379_1_county-council-district-5-council-district-boundaries">Democrats prevail in redistricting vote</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/81753658.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+21%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrats+prevail+in+redistricting+vote+%3B+Recommended+plan+approved%2C+4-3%3B+Howard+County">September 21, 2001, 1B</a>; Michael Cody, “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6010389/news-glance/">Democrats set to gain strength in redistricting</a>,” <em>Howard County Times</em>, September 27, 2001.)</p>
<p>October 2001.  Candidates formally announce in the District 2 race to succeed C. Vernon Gray, as Calvin Ball joins community activist Michelle Williams to pursue the Democratic nomination.  Ball notes that being a council member “sounds just like my job now.  People call me whenever they have a problem.”  Redistricting commission member Jared Thornton notes the high likelihood of electing an African-American candidate in a district with a 23% black population: “A lot of things about Columbia seem to be different from any other place.  We don’t need a super-majority in Howard County.”  Ball and Williams join announced candidates Mary Kay Sigaty and Ken Ulman, who are seeking the Democratic nomination for the other open council seat in District 4.</p>
<p>(Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-10-04/news/0110040128_1_columbia-ball-county-council">State employee, 26, files for council seat</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/83217472.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+4%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=State+employee%2C+26%2C+files+for+council+seat+%3B+Oakland+Mills+resident+seeks+post+held+for+five+terms+by+Gray">October 4, 2001, 1B</a>; Michael Cody, “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6033234/news-glance/">Schools activist plans run for County Council</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, September 13, 2001.)</p>
<p>November 2001.  The council holds a public hearing on the plan recommended by the redistricting commission, and prepares for a vote.  However various council members propose last-minute changes to the plan: Mary Lorsung wants to keep parts of Fulton in District 4 instead of moving them to District 5, and keep some areas north of Route 108 in District 5 instead of moving them into District 4; the changes affect 70 voters in total.  On the Republican side, District 5 incumbent Allan Kittleman wants to move 2,707 voters from Scaggsville and elsewhere in southern Howard County from his district into District 3, while District 1 incumbent Christopher Merdon tries to keep part of Ellicott City in his district and move part of Elkridge back into District 2.  Democratic council members C. Vernon Gray and Guy Guzzone warn that they won’t stand for further changes to their districts.</p>
<p>(Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-11-06/news/0111060344_1_county-executive-county-council-executive-and-council">Panel vote favors raises</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/88323146.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+6%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Panel+vote+favors+raises+%3B+Commission+urging+%24125%2C000+starting+pay+for+Robey%27s+successor%3B+Executive+%60way+underpaid%27%3B+County+Council+OKs+array+of+development+and+zoning+measures%3B+Howard+County">November 6, 2001, 1B</a>; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-11-28/news/0111280138_1_district-5-council-district-county-council">Council district changes proposed</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/94207397.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+28%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council+district+changes+proposed+%3B+Last-minute+proposals+by+three+members+complicate+vote">November 28, 2001, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>December 2001.  The council finally votes on a redistricting plan. Democrat Mary Lorsung joins Republicans Allan Kittleman and Christopher Merdon in approving various amendments to the plan, with her fellow Democrats C. Vernon Gray and Guy Guzzone opposing the changes.  Angered by the passage of the amendments, Gray waits for the other members to deadlock 2&ndash;2 and then casts a deciding vote against the final bill as amended, thinking to take advantage of the charter provision that would force adoption of the original redistricting commission plan in the absence of council agreement.</p>
<p>Allan Kittleman smiles broadly (“I bet my mouth was touching both ears”), realizing that the defeat of the bill would allow Republicans the opportunity to pursue further changes and try to get three votes in favor of an alternative plan before the March 15 deadline (“I thought, ‘My gosh, he’s given me an opportunity to write the plan.’ It certainly was something I was relishing”).  After a series of consultations between Gray and Guy Guzzone and Guzzone and county solicitor Barbera Cook, Gray changes his vote and the council approves the plan as amended.  “It’s important to put this to bed and move on,” Gray notes.</p>
<p>The amendments do not affect Districts 2 and 3, but instead make several minor changes to move small numbers of voters between Merdon’s, Kittleman’s, and Lorsung’s districts: keeping in District 5 a section of Ellicott City in which Kittleman’s legislative aide resides, keeping all of the Font Hill community in District 1, and moving some voters along Homewood Road back into District 5 in exchange for keeping some voters in Fulton and Highland in District 4. The final districts range in size from under 48,000 to over 50,000.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>(Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-12-04/news/0112040403_1_lorsung-district-4-amended-bill">Lines drawn for council</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/93347983.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+4%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Lines+drawn+for+council+%3B+Members+approve+realignment+after+months+of+debate%3B+3-2+party-line+vote%3B+Last-minute+switch+by+Gray+passes+bill+with+7+amendments">December 4, 2001, 1B</a>; Michael Cody, “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6034078/redistricting-re-vote-erases-gops-momentary-edge/">Redistricting re-vote erases GOP’s momentary edge</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, December 6, 2001.)</p>
<p>Thus ends the post-2000-census council redistricting process, as the Democrats retaking control of the council in 1998 pays off with a Democratic-friendly district map that will be in effect for the next three council elections.</p>
<p>Almost ten years later and exactly one year to the day after I posted <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">part 1</a>, this is an appropriate point to end this series on the history of county council redistricting in Howard County.  But I’m not quite done yet; please stayed tuned for an upcoming special announcement of possible interest to those of you who’ve been reading these posts thus far.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Note that the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> and <em>Columbia Flier</em> differ in their reporting of the district populations.  I’ve phrased my account to be consistent with both stories.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 22</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/27/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-22/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 27 Nov 2011 21:45:35 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/27/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-22/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-21/&#34;&gt;part 21&lt;/a&gt; in this series we saw Democrats succeed in taking back both the Howard County Council and the county executive position from Republicans.  In this post we see how that success translated into control over the council redistricting process, as the new redistricting commission scheme faced its first test.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;December 2000.  Facing a tight deadline for county council redistricting (with the 2002 council elections less than two years away), the Democratic and Republican parties prepare to name members to the seven-person redistricting commission.  The Democrats publicly advertise for any party activists willing to serve, an action that surprises county GOP chair Louis Pope: “You want people who understand the numbers, the issues and who can work toward a compromise.”  Both parties praise the new system as a better way to do redistricting than that followed in the previous cycle, in which conflict between the Democratic council majority and Republican county executive Charles Ecker degenerated into a lawsuit.  Notes Maryland state delegate Robert Flanagan, “At the very least members of the commission won’t be worried about their own [political] hides.”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-21/">part 21</a> in this series we saw Democrats succeed in taking back both the Howard County Council and the county executive position from Republicans.  In this post we see how that success translated into control over the council redistricting process, as the new redistricting commission scheme faced its first test.</p>
<p>December 2000.  Facing a tight deadline for county council redistricting (with the 2002 council elections less than two years away), the Democratic and Republican parties prepare to name members to the seven-person redistricting commission.  The Democrats publicly advertise for any party activists willing to serve, an action that surprises county GOP chair Louis Pope: “You want people who understand the numbers, the issues and who can work toward a compromise.”  Both parties praise the new system as a better way to do redistricting than that followed in the previous cycle, in which conflict between the Democratic council majority and Republican county executive Charles Ecker degenerated into a lawsuit.  Notes Maryland state delegate Robert Flanagan, “At the very least members of the commission won’t be worried about their own [political] hides.”</p>
<p>(Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2000-12-14/news/0012140001_1_democrats-and-republicans-howard-county-county-council">Parties will present names for redistricting commission</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/65196213.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+14%2C+2000&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Parties+will+present+names+for+redistricting+commission+Panel+is+the+result+of+compromise+aimed+at+avoiding+acrimony">December 14, 2000, 3B</a>.)</p>
<p>February-March 2001.  The two parties feud over appointments to the redistricting commission, as Republicans object to the Democrat’s choice of David Marker as commission chair, citing his actions during the early 1990s redistricting controversy and his public comments about working to produce a favorable result for Democrats.  GOP council members Allan Kittleman and Christopher Merdon (representing Districts 1 and 5 respectively) propose instead appointing Carole Conors, president of the county chapter of the League of Women Voters, and take advantage of District 4 Democratic council member Mary Lorsung’s absence in Europe to force a postponement of the creation of the commission.</p>
<p>District 2 Democratic council member C. Vernon Gray fumes, “This is nothing more than blatant partisan game-playing,” while Marker acknowledges it as a “good ploy by the Republicans to maximize their advantage.”  Meanwhile Conors protests that she wants to be on the commission to represent the League (“We belong at the table”) but not as chair, and the <em>Columbia Flier</em> worries about a return to the partisan bickering of the previous redistricting effort (“If the council blows this job, the people&mdash;not the politicians&mdash;will pay the price.”).</p>
<p>Back from Europe, Mary Lorsung is outraged that, unlike Republicans (who nominated B. Diane Wilson, aide to former Distrct 3 council member Dennis Schrader), Democrats did not nominate any women to the redistricting commission: “Frankly, I thought we had gotten way beyond that.  . . .  One [woman] out of seven was just not acceptable.” Trying to put an end to the controversy, Democrats add Lorsung ally Priscilla Hart to the commission, while still nominating David Marker as chair.  District 3 Democratic council member Guy Guzzone notes that Republicans “didn’t get rid of David Marker . . . [but they] certainly created a bit of anger within the Democratic Party,” while Allan Kittleman and Christopher Merdon voice their approval of adding a Democratic woman to join GOP nominee Wilson (Kittleman: “We agree with Mary [Lorsung] on that.  Ms. Hart wouldn’t be there without Chris and I.”).  In addition to Marker, Hart, and Wilson, other nominees to the redistricting commission are Neil Quinter and J. T. Thornton for the Democrats and Michael Deets and Warren Miller for the Republicans.</p>
<p>(Michael Cody, “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6031312/councilmanic-redistricting-again-under-microscope/">Councilmanic redistricting again under the microscope</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, February 22, 2001; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-03-06/news/0103060087_1_redistricting-commission-county-executive-howard-county">Feud delays redistricting commission</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/69275298.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Mar+6%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Feud+delays+redistricting+commission+Democrats%2C+GOP+members+on+council+deadlock+2-2+in+vote%3B+Lorsung+is+in+Europe%3B+Measure+needed+to+redraw+boundaries+halted+for+2+months%3B+Howard+County">March 6, 2001, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6031210/budget-requests-need-axing-or-more-taxing/">Council deadlocks on naming districting panel</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, March 7, 2001; “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/opinion/6031236/dont-let-partisan-strife-again-poison-county-redistricting/">Don’t let partisan strife again poison county redistricting</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, March 7, 2001; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-03-28/news/0103280217_1_lorsung-democratic-party-democrats-hope">Democrats add woman to redistricting panel</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/70110160.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Mar+28%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrats+add+woman+to+redistricting+panel+Colleagues+belatedly+change+bill+to+gain+Lorsung%27s+approval%3B+Howard+County">March 28, 2001, 6B</a>.)</p>
<p>April 2001.  As the county council waits for another try at appointing the redistricting commission, local politicians speculate on the effects of Howard County’s population growth (an increase of 32% since the 1990 census, to 247,800 people) on its political clout in Annapolis (“I would certainly hope that we will gain a whole legislative district for Howard County,” says local Democratic chair Wendy Fiedler) and on the political balance between Columbia and the rest of Howard County (“the growth that’s occurred [outside of Columbia] has got to help Republicans more than Democrats,” says local GOP chair Louis Pope).</p>
<p>Relatively even population growth throughout the county means that only two council districts are outside the desired size of approximately 50,000 residents, with District 1 needing to become somewhat smaller and District 3 somewhat larger.  However changes to District 1 and District 3 would force changes to other districts as well.  Christopher Merdon anticipates a “big counter-clockwise turn,” in which District 3 would expand toward Columbia, District 2 would take part of Elkridge (splitting it with District 1), and District 1 might expand westward a bit into District 5.</p>
<p>District 3 incumbent Guy Guzzone looks forward to the possibility of having all of Owen Brown in his district, a move which would increase the chances of his retaining the seat.  (Merdon concedes, “They’ll probably try to make Guy’s [district] a little more Democrat to solidify that for the majority.”)  Local GOP chair Louis Pope also anticipates Democrats wanting to expand District 4 to remove from District 2 people angered by Guzzone’s position on rezoning of the Maple Lawn Farm property in Fulton.  Meanwhile the council looks forward to approving the final composition of the redistricting commission.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>(Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-03-21/news/0103210438_1_howard-county-county-executive-legislative-district">Census gains may bring more political power</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/69893921.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Mar+21%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Census+gains+may+bring+more+political+power+Extra+60%2C000+might+add+delegates%2C+district">March 21, 2001, 1B</a>; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-04-15/news/0104150079_1_council-districts-guzzone-ideal-size">Border shifts for districts may be small</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/71354549.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Apr+15%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Border+shifts+for+districts+may+be+small+Council+hoping+for+nonpartisan+boundary+changes%3B+Growth+even+across+county%3B+Citizens+commission+to+make+suggestions%3B+board+has+final+say%3B+Howard+County">April 15, 2001, 1B</a>; Michael Cody, “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6030937/council-districts-likely-shift-next-election/">Council districts likely to shift for next election</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, April 5, 2001; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-04-17/news/0104170062_1_robey-property-tax-howard-county">Higher fire tax looking likely</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/71404665.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Apr+17%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Higher+fire+tax+looking+likely+Robey+seeks+bill+raising+cap+to+meet+department%27s+needs%3B+%60This+was+a+compromise%27">April 17, 2001, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>June 2001.  The newly-appointed redistricting commission holds its first public hearing at Long Reach High School and almost outnumbers the audience, as only a handful of residents show up and only three of them speak.  Why?  “Because there’s nothing to react against [yet],” explains commission member Michael Deets, while fellow commission member Priscilla Hart concurs: “We know it’s easier to react to a plan than to put one together.”  Of those speaking, Ken Stevens endorses re-unifying all of Owen Brown in a single district, Rosemary Mortimer recommends not splitting school districts across council district boundaries, and David Margolis expresses a hope the the process “doesn’t get mired down in politics.”</p>
<p>(Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-06-27/news/0106270044_1_council-districts-howard-county-county-council">Residents speak out on redistricting</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/74772778.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+27%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Residents+speak+out+on+redistricting+Commission+has+first+of+3+hearings+before+drafting+a+plan%3B+Howard+County">June 27, 2001, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6032891/news-glance/">Redistricting group hears from citizens</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, June 28, 2001.)</p>
<p>July 2001.  As the redistricting commission gets down to the task of drawing up plans, redistricting commission member and Columbia Democratic Club president Neil Quinter presents his and the club’s proposal, which would (as previously discussed) move all of Owen Brown from District 2 (east Columbia/Jessup) into District 3 (north Laurel/Savage/southeast Columbia), move Dorsey’s Search from District 1 (Ellicott City/Elkridge) into District 4 (west Columbia), and extend GOP-dominated District 5 from western Howard eastward to encompass parts of the Fulton/Maple Lawn/Scaggsville area that were previously part of either District 4 or District 3.</p>
<p>“They’re trying to get rid of areas bad for them,” claims District 5 council member Allan Kittleman, a claim with which Maple Lawn Farms opponent Peter Oswald concurs: “[There’s] a substantial amount of dissatisfaction with Guzzone on Maple Lawn Farms.  . . .  It is to Guzzone’s advantage to move that area to Kittleman’s district.”  Quinter defends the proposed plan (“I’m not going to apologize for the fact that we’re trying to strengthen Democratic districts”), while his fellow commission member Jared Thornton notes that at least Howard County is free of the pitched disputes over racially-related redistricting seen in neighboring Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties (“In redistricting, Howard is sort of a boring county”).</p>
<p>The Quinter/Columbia Democratic Club proposal joins four others championed by one or another of the commission’s members, two more Democratic plans (from chair David Marker and Priscilla Hart respectively) and two Republican plans (from Michael Deets and Warren Miller respectively).  All three Democratic plans propose expanding District 3 northward to incorporate more of Columbia, while Deets’s plan takes the opposite approach and proposes a Columbia-free District 3; since Guy Guzzone lives in Kings Contrivance this would remove him from his district and put him into District 4 to compete for the seat being vacated by the retiring Mary Lorsung.  By contrast Miller’s plan makes relatively minor changes to existing districts in an effort to keep them compact while still making Districts 3 and 4 more competitive for Republicans.</p>
<p>(Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-07-26/news/0107260120_1_maple-lawn-farms-guzzone-district-4">Democrats map plan for keeping majority</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/76329304.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+26%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrats+map+plan+for+keeping+majority+Councilmanic+lines+being+redrawn+to+reflect+census+figures%3B+Howard+County">July 26, 2001, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6026490/news-glance/">Democratic club floats new council district map</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, July 26, 2001; Larry Carson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2001-07-27/news/0107270097_1_guzzone-district-4-district-3">5 plans offered for new districts</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/76462100.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+27%2C+2001&amp;author=Larry+Carson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=5+plans+offered+for+new+districts+Democrats+seek+tighter+grip%3B+GOP+plan+targets+Guzzone%3B+Commission+to+vote+in+Aug.%3B+Howard+County">July 27, 2001, 1B</a>; Michael Cody, “<a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/6033331/rival-redistricting-plans-seek-edge/">Rival redistricting plans seek an edge</a>,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, August 2, 2001.)</p>
<p>In the next post we’ll see the outcome of the redistricting commission’s deliberations, and what the county council did with the commission’s recommendation.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Apparently the final council measure actually appointing the redistricting commission was noncontroversial; neither the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> nor the <em>Columbia Flier</em> saw fit to record the event as part of their county council coverage.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Weekly reading</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/13/weekly-reading-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 13 Nov 2011 14:32:16 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/13/weekly-reading-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Here are more recent links from &lt;a href=&#34;http://hecker.tumblr.com/&#34;&gt;hecker.tumblr.com&lt;/a&gt;.  This week (actually, more like two weeks) was somewhat random, to say the least.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.amazon.com/Race-Against-Machine-Accelerating-ebook/dp/B005WTR4ZI/&#34;&gt;Race Against the Machine&lt;/a&gt;.  This is a must-read.  The basic argument is that exponential advances in software technology threaten to automate all jobs involving low-to-mid-level relatively routine intellectual work, and even threaten what we would consider relatively high-end work (e.g., medical diagnosis).  You should read this instead of reading yet another superficial pro- or anti-OWS article.  (Plus it’s a smashing bargain as a $3.99 ebook.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here are more recent links from <a href="http://hecker.tumblr.com/">hecker.tumblr.com</a>.  This week (actually, more like two weeks) was somewhat random, to say the least.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Race-Against-Machine-Accelerating-ebook/dp/B005WTR4ZI/">Race Against the Machine</a>.  This is a must-read.  The basic argument is that exponential advances in software technology threaten to automate all jobs involving low-to-mid-level relatively routine intellectual work, and even threaten what we would consider relatively high-end work (e.g., medical diagnosis).  You should read this instead of reading yet another superficial pro- or anti-OWS article.  (Plus it’s a smashing bargain as a $3.99 ebook.)</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.american.com/archive/2011/november/what-if-middle-class-jobs-disappear/article_print">What if middle-class jobs disappear</a>.”  This is an interesting analysis of potential structural changes in the economy, aligned with the arguments in Race Against the Machine.  The final paragraphs (e.g., “I believe that a scenario in which many people have dignified jobs and enjoyable lifestyles is more likely to emerge in an environment with decentralized voluntary charities than one with concentrated, coercive government.”) strike me as libertarian wishful thinking in the absence of any real evidence for the likelihood of this outcome.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/speccol/sc2600/sc2685/county/html/horow_elect.html">Howard County Register of Wills Election Returns, 1851-present</a>.“  <a href="http://byronmacfarlane.com/">Byron Macfarlane</a>, the current Howard County Register of Wills, worked with the Maryland State Archives to put this page together.  It would be great if we had a similar online resource for the results of all Howard County local elections from the founding of the county forward (and even greater if we had results down to the precinct level).  The usual places (Howard County Board of Elections, Maryland State Board of Elections, Maryland State Archives) seem not to have any information prior to the 1980s or 1990s.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0025496">Adaptive Evolution of Cooperation through Darwinian Dynamics in Public Goods Games</a>.”  This paper is pretty technical, and I’d have to read it more closely in order to fully follow the math, but it seems to be an interesting result if the simulations therein reflect reality.  The basic idea appears to be as follows, if I’m reading it right: In an evolutionary scenario cooperation can take hold and persist if the returns from cooperation initially increase relatively more rapidly than the number of cooperators.  If returns from cooperation do not kick in until the number of cooperators reaches a certain threshold, or if returns increase only proportionately to the number of cooperators, then cooperation cannot arise and persist in the population.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/28/black_market_global_economy?page=full">The Shadow Superpower</a>.”  This article discusses the unregulated economy (aka “System D”), its size worldwide, and how it’s increasing in importance in developed countries: “after the financial crisis of 2008-09, System D was revealed to be an important financial coping mechanism.  A 2009 <a href="http://www.dbresearch.de/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000252019.pdf">study</a> by Deutsche Bank … suggested that people in the European countries with the largest portions of their economies that were unlicensed and unregulated&mdash;in other words, citizens of the countries with the most robust System D&mdash;fared better in the economic meltdown of 2008 than folks living in centrally planned and tightly regulated nations.  … By 2020, the OECD projects, two-thirds of the workers of the world will be employed in System D.” In an interesting hitting-close-to-home twist, the article ends with a quote from Joanne Saltzberg of the nonprofit group <a href="http://www.webinc.org/">Women Entrepreneurs of Baltimore</a>.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.strongtowns.org/the-growth-ponzi-scheme">The Growth Ponzi Scheme</a>.”  TJ Mayotte’s post “<a href="http://rocketpoweredbutterfly.com/2011/11/09/a-strong-howard-county/">A Strong Howard County</a>” alerted me to this interesting article (actually a series of articles).  The basic thesis is that suburban growth does not generate sufficient tax revenue to cover long-term maintenance of its associated infrastructure.  A couple of key quotes: “If you want a simple explanation for why our economy is stalled and cannot be restarted, it is this: <strong>Our places do not create wealth, they destroy wealth.</strong> Our development pattern&mdash;the American style of building our places&mdash;is simply not productive enough to sustain itself.  <strong>. . .  We need to wring more value out of our places</strong> and that is only going to happen if we understand how to create value in the first place.” [emphasis in the original]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A letter to Ken Ulman</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/12/a-letter-to-ken-ulman/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 12 Nov 2011 13:45:19 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/12/a-letter-to-ken-ulman/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Dear Ken,&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Thanks for inviting me to your &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.kenulman.com/event/2011/a-reception-honoring-ken-ulman/&#34;&gt;reception&lt;/a&gt; last Thursday, an invitation that (after a reminder from &lt;a href=&#34;http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/&#34;&gt;Jessie Newburn&lt;/a&gt;) I was happy to accept, because I think on balance you’ve done a good job as county executive and also because I thought it would be fun to spend some time among the movers and shakers of Howard County.  I’m not very forward in social settings so I didn’t stop by to say hello, but now that I’m back in my element I thought I’d bend your ear for a few minutes.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear Ken,</p>
<p>Thanks for inviting me to your <a href="http://www.kenulman.com/event/2011/a-reception-honoring-ken-ulman/">reception</a> last Thursday, an invitation that (after a reminder from <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/">Jessie Newburn</a>) I was happy to accept, because I think on balance you’ve done a good job as county executive and also because I thought it would be fun to spend some time among the movers and shakers of Howard County.  I’m not very forward in social settings so I didn’t stop by to say hello, but now that I’m back in my element I thought I’d bend your ear for a few minutes.</p>
<p>My fellow bloggers <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2011/03/governor-ulman.html">Dennis Lane</a> and <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2011/07/ken-for-guv.html">Tom Coale</a> think you’re serious about running for governor; if so I commend you for doing so given the likely bumps on the road ahead for the world, the nation, and Maryland: Europe crashing and possibly pulling us into a second depression, burdensome public and private debt, and likely Federal and state spending cutbacks in the years ahead&mdash;not to mention the continued impact of globalization, climate change, and the possibility that someday computers may take over most professional jobs (no, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Race-Against-Machine-Accelerating-ebook/dp/B005WTR4ZI">I’m not kidding</a>).</p>
<p>So, what to do?  I’m a Democrat, and think the Republican party has run out of gas intellectually in terms of policy ideas that could improve our country and our state.  But that doesn’t mean the Democratic party is that much better, especially if we rely primarily on partisan redistricting and the inertia of Maryland voters to stay in power and then fail to meet the challenges of the coming years.</p>
<p>What are those challenges?  Primarily to jump start economic growth and improve productivity in an era of extreme economic dislocation, while at the same time helping people survive those dislocations and find a productive place in the new economy that emerges.  You talked a bit along those lines the other evening; allow me to comment briefly on those remarks and provide my own thoughts.</p>
<p>Providing a safety net for those who need it is a traditional Democratic value.  You name-checked Healthy Howard and a follow-on effort to create a Maryland health care cooperative (presumably a reference to the <a href="http://evergreenmd.org/Home.html">Evergreen Project</a>).  It sounds like a good idea, and I wish it well.  I don’t have much more to say about social services issues in this post, and in general leave blogging about such issues to <a href="http://hococonnect.blogspot.com/">Duane St.  Clair</a>, who does a much better job that I ever could.</p>
<p>On the economic development front you mentioned the Inter-County Broadband Network (which <a href="/2010/09/21/the-real-story-on-howard-countys-broadband-grant/">I’ve previously blogged about</a>) as well as your recent trip to Silicon Valley.  Here I do have some thoughts: Wiring the state is like setting tables in a restaurant; it doesn’t guarantee anyone’s going to show up to dine.  In particular <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/">I’m pessimistic</a> about the idea of this region becoming the “Silicon Valley of cybersecurity” given the area’s reliance on Federal defense and intelligence spending, the secretive nature of the work, and the barriers to participation by those not holding security clearances&mdash;the polar opposite of the entrepreneurial and open culture of the real Silicon Valley.</p>
<p>How to promote such a culture?  One possible approach is to combine a traditional social safety net with a relentless focus on the free market: to promote the economic liberty of everyone to produce and sell useful goods and services while at the same time helping everyone to fulfill their inborn potential to be a productive contributor in the free market (and be rewarded accordingly).  As <a href="/2011/10/27/creating-a-blueprint-for-growing-maryland-jobs/">I’ve written previously</a>, there are Maryland-sized places that do this well, and we can look to them for guidance.</p>
<p>In practice this first means looking seriously at the “business-friendly” initiatives proposed by the major business lobbies, but pushing back when such initiatives seem designed simply to reward incumbent players and ensure a docile work force.  Then talk to someone like <a href="http://www.hocopolitico.com/2010/12/social-justice-commentary.html">Trevor Greene</a> and ask what he thinks Democrats should do to reduce the regulatory burden on small businesses like his.  What about the challenges faced by the growing population of self-employed professionals?  Talk to <a href="http://www.thursdaybram.com/enhanced-freelance-%E2%80%94-the-full-launch">Thursday Bram</a> and <a href="http://strobist.blogspot.com">David Hobby</a>.  Could we do a better job of promoting “street entrepreneurs”?  Have <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/2009/02/us-1-foodie-frontier.html">Mr. Howchow</a> introduce you to the folks on Route 1 who are enlivening the culinary landscape of Howard County.</p>
<p>Of course, small businesses and “micro-entrepreneurs” don’t drive major job growth; for that we need to attract companies in emerging industries, the potential Apples and Googles of the future.  So, for example, look at the emerging personal genomics industry and ask why one of the leading companies in that space (a firm funded in part by Maryland-based VCs) <a href="/2011/03/12/maryland-says-no-dtc-genetic-testing-for-you/">can’t sell its service in Maryland</a>.  If we’re going to be touting Johns Hopkins and NIH as foundations for a biotech industry then we also need to look at regulatory factors that influence whether biotech entrepreneurs will want to locate here.</p>
<p>Suppose we can more effectively unleash the forces of free market innovation.  Where do we want that innovation to be focused?  As <a href="http://rocketpoweredbutterfly.com/2011/11/09/a-strong-howard-county/">TJ Mayotte</a> recently discussed, we need to have places that are economically productive enough that they can generate sufficient tax revenue to cover the costs of both constructing <em>and</em> maintaining government-created infrastructure over the long-term.  And the places that are more productive than anywhere else are cities; in fact, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/19/magazine/19Urban_West-t.html?pagewanted=all">cities become relatively more productive the larger they grow</a>.</p>
<p>As <a href="/2011/06/02/columbia-and-the-structural-shift-to-walkable-urbanism/">Chris Leinberger discussed recently</a> (in the same room where you held your reception) cities provide walkable urban places where people like to live, and make investments in mass transit and related infrastructure much more cost-effective than in suburbs (as <a href="http://www.sarahsaysblog.com/2011/06/importance-of-rail-in-columbia.html">Sarah</a> has noted).  Howard County would be a more economically productive place if relatively more people lived in Columbia Town Center, a region like western Maryland would be more economically productive if relatively more people lived in Cumberland, and Maryland as a whole would be economically productive if relatively more people lived in Baltimore.</p>
<p>How to accomplish that?  Part of the solution lies in addressing perceived disadvantages of cities relating to school quality and public safety, and another in discouraging growth outside cities by reducing government subsidies for inefficient land use.  And part may also lie in <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Gated-City-Kindle-Single-ebook/dp/B005KGATLO">reducing the barriers to growing cities</a> and overcoming heartfelt but I think ultimately misguided objections to higher-density residential development&mdash;the exact problem you and the county council successfully addressed with Columbia Town Center, with support from the folks at <a href="http://columbia2.wordpress.com/about-us/">Columbia 2.0</a> and others.  The goal: that anyone who wants to can afford the advantages of living and working in a socially, culturally, and economically vibrant urban environment.</p>
<p>To conclude, we need to look beyond the traditional way of thinking (blue state vs. red state, liberal vs. conservative, Maryland vs. Virginia, and so on) and come up with more creative ways to make Maryland a better place without changing what we love about it.  As Trevor Greene remarked in the post I linked to above, maybe we should take some things from column A and some things from column B.  If FDR could steal ideas from socialism to help save capitalism from itself, maybe it makes sense to steal ideas from free-market libertarianism to help save big-government liberalism from the rut it’s gotten into.  FDR was reviled by rabid socialists and rabid capitalists alike, but everybody else seemed to like him just fine.  Perhaps that would be true here as well.</p>
<p>In any event I enjoyed the reception, and wish you luck in your future career wherever it may take you.  Thanks again for the invite.</p>
<p>Frank</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Revisiting Howard County 2010 general election predictions</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/07/revisiting-howard-county-2010-general-election-predictions/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 07 Nov 2011 23:56:58 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/07/revisiting-howard-county-2010-general-election-predictions/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Back in October 2010 pollsters were dueling over their predictions in the Howard County race for county executive, with pollster Patrick Gonzales of Gonzales Research seeing the &lt;a href=&#34;http://marylandreporter.com/2010/10/06/poll-shows-howard-county-executive-race-tightening/&#34;&gt;race between Ken Ulman and Trent Kittleman tightening&lt;/a&gt; to only a 49-41% advantage for Ulman, a conclusion pooh-poohed by Ulman’s campaign staff.  One major bone of contention was choosing a pool of likely voters in doing the polls, and in particular determining how many Democrats should be in the pool vs. Republicans and independents.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Back in October 2010 pollsters were dueling over their predictions in the Howard County race for county executive, with pollster Patrick Gonzales of Gonzales Research seeing the <a href="http://marylandreporter.com/2010/10/06/poll-shows-howard-county-executive-race-tightening/">race between Ken Ulman and Trent Kittleman tightening</a> to only a 49-41% advantage for Ulman, a conclusion pooh-poohed by Ulman’s campaign staff.  One major bone of contention was choosing a pool of likely voters in doing the polls, and in particular determining how many Democrats should be in the pool vs. Republicans and independents.</p>
<p>Gonzales used a likely voter pool of 46% Democrats, 40% Republicans, and 14% independents (i.e., unaffiliated voters and members of other parties).  Gonzales commented at the time that this division was being “generous to the Democrats” and predicted that the percentage of Republicans in the voting population would actually exceed 40%.</p>
<p>For a separate Ulman-commissioned <a href="http://archives.explorehoward.com/news/75685/ulman-kittleman-camps-see-bright-spots-polls/">poll showing Ulman with a 25-point lead</a> (57-32%) pollster Fred Yang used a likely voter pool of 50% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 17% independents.  (Yang also did an alternative 46/40/14 pooling that showed Ulman with a 53-36% lead.)</p>
<p>I got interested in the question of the likely party breakdown of the 2010 electorate and did a series of posts on this, starting with a two-part series (<a href="/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2010/10/20/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election-contd/">part 2</a>) with an initial estimate of the percentages of likely voters and following up after the election (but before I had final turnout data) with a four-part series (<a href="/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/">part 2</a>, <a href="/2010/11/16/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-3/">part 3</a>, and <a href="/2010/11/16/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-3/">part 4</a>) that described in detail how I used the R statistical software to generate my estimates.</p>
<p>I recently got reminded of this topic and recalled that I never went back and compared my estimates to those calculated from the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/turnout/general/2010_General_Statewide.html">official turnout figures</a>.  That prompted me to update my <a href="https://docs.google.com/a/hecker.org/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsbOfsoPgoYPdDdvVEZ4YldZclNMQTVwRmJhcjM0Snc&amp;hl=en#gid=0">Google spreadsheet of Howard County general election turnout data</a>, which computes the values I needed.</p>
<p>So who was right? The table below shows the three estimates of the predicted party breakdown of voters in the 2010 general election, along with the actual party breakdown.</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th></th>
          <th>% Democratic</th>
          <th>% Republican</th>
          <th>% Independent</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>Gonzales</td>
          <td>46</td>
          <td>40</td>
          <td>14</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Hecker</td>
          <td>46.7</td>
          <td>37.0</td>
          <td>16.3</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Yang</td>
          <td>50</td>
          <td>33</td>
          <td>17</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Actual</td>
          <td>50.4</td>
          <td>34.0</td>
          <td>15.6</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>From this we can conclude three things: First, the Gonzales poll was using a likely voter breakdown that was significantly off.  However well Republicans did nationally in terms of voter turnout, that success did not translate into comparable turnout in Howard County.</p>
<p>Second, I came  the closest of the three in  estimating the percentage of independent voters  in the general election.  Recall  from my posts that the percentage of independents  voting in Howard County elections has been steadily  going up over the years in  an almost linear trend, so  doing  a  simple  linear regression  produced  a  reasonably  good estimate.</p>
<p>Finally, Fred Yang nailed the respective percentages of Democrats and Republicans in the electorate.  His estimate of a 25-point lead for Ken Ulman was also right on the money; <a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/mdmanual/36loc/how/elect/general/how2010.html">Ulman’s actual margin of victory</a> was 26 points (63-37%).  If Ken Ulman does run for governor then he could do worse than retaining Yang to do his polling again.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 21</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-21/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 06 Nov 2011 21:14:43 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-21/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In this post I continue the story of the 1998 elections for Howard County Council that I began in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-20/&#34;&gt;part 20&lt;/a&gt; of this series.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;August 1998.  As Guy Guzzone faces no opposition in the District 3 Democratic primary his would-be Republican opponent, ex-Democrat Wanda Hurt, has her party credentials questioned by her primary opponent, “lifelong Republican” Kirk Halpin.  (Hurt protests: “I was miserable as an active Democrat in this county.  I suffered a heck of a lot.”)  Though Hurt is backed by incumbent Dennis Schrader, the endorsement of the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt; goes to Halpin for his “vigor” and “fresh perspective.”&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In this post I continue the story of the 1998 elections for Howard County Council that I began in <a href="/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-20/">part 20</a> of this series.</p>
<p>August 1998.  As Guy Guzzone faces no opposition in the District 3 Democratic primary his would-be Republican opponent, ex-Democrat Wanda Hurt, has her party credentials questioned by her primary opponent, “lifelong Republican” Kirk Halpin.  (Hurt protests: “I was miserable as an active Democrat in this county.  I suffered a heck of a lot.”)  Though Hurt is backed by incumbent Dennis Schrader, the endorsement of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> goes to Halpin for his “vigor” and “fresh perspective.”<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>The <em>Sun</em> also endorses Christopher Merdon in the District 1 Republican primary, C. Vernon Gray in the District 2 Democratic primary, and Debra Ann Slack-Katz and Allan Kittleman in the District 5 Democratic and Republican primaries respectively.  Meanwhile in District 4 self-described “moderate Republican” Greg Fox has a 3&ndash;1 fundraising advantage over his general election opponent, Democrat Mary Lorsung, raising hopes of GOP success in November.  (Claims Dennis Schrader’s pollster J. Brad Coker, “The county has a slight Republican lean. There have always been a lot of Democrats with conservative feelings.”)</p>
<p>(Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-08-16/news/1998228113_1_active-democrat-democratic-club-columbia-democratic">Hurt finds peace in GOP</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/33251819.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+16%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Hurt+finds+peace+in+GOP%3B+Ex-Democratic+leader+%60miserable%27+before+she+switched+parties%3B+%60I+suffered+a+heck+of+a+lot%27%3B+Her+opponent+in+race+for+County+Council+questions+her+beliefs">August 16, 1998, 1B</a>; “Halpin for GOP in District 3,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/33251903.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+19%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Halpin+for+GOP+in+District+3%3B+Sun+endorsement%3A+Columbia+lawyer+could+bring+fresh+perspective+to+Howard+County+Council.">August 19, 1998, 16A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-08-17/news/1998229054_1_council-district-1-howard-county-mccoy">Merdon in Council District 1</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/33188097.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+17%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Merdon+in+Council+District+1%3B+Sun+endorsement%3A+Republican+offers+vigor+and%2C+perhaps%2C+greater+vigilance+against+development.">August 17, 1998, 6A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-08-18/news/1998230121_1_gray-howard-county-council-district">Gray in 2nd Council District</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-08-18/news/1998230121_1_gray-howard-county-council-district">August 18, 1998, 8A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-08-20/news/1998232132_1_kittleman-howard-county-western-howard">Slack-Katz, Kittleman in 5th</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/33277116.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+20%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Slack-Katz%2C+Kittleman+in+5th%3B+Sun+endorsements%3A+4th+has+no+contested+primary%2C+but+5th+voters+have+solid+choices+to+succeed+Feaga.">August 20, 1998, 18A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-08-24/news/1998236043_1_kittleman-bates-county-executive">GOP race intensifies in Howard</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/33356791.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+24%2C+1998&amp;author=Edward+Lee&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=GOP+race+intensifies+in+Howard%3B+3+council+candidates+in+first+campaigns+stir+primary+interest%3B+Expert+praises+competition%3B+Democrats+hoping+to+take+spots+vacated+by+four+Republicans">August 24, 1998, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>September 1998.  As the primary approaches, Howard County Republicans find themselves in the unlikely position of having vigorous primary battles for county executive and three of five county council seats, with the fights being variously cast as “old Howard” vs. “new Howard,” youth vs. age, conservatives vs. moderates, or just a matter of differing personalities and styles.  On primary day itself the Republican nominations go to Christopher Merdon in District 1, Wanda Hurt in District 3, and Allan Kittleman in District 5, with C. Vernon Gray once again easily winning the Democratic nomination in District 2 and Debra Ann Slack-Katz winning the right to face Allan Kittleman in District 5.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>(“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-09-13/news/1998256079_1_schrader-county-executive-howard-county">GOP offers several choices</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/34105059.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+13%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=GOP+offers+several+choices%3B+Ballots+for+council%2C+executive+will+have+at+least+2+options%3B+District+races+competitive%3B+Feaga%2C+Schrader+show+contrasting+styles+in+bid+to+lead+the+county%3A+CAMPAIGN+1998">September 13, 1998, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-09-16/news/1998259097_1_kittleman-bates-ellicott">Parties choose known names</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/34105186.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+16%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein+and+Jill+Hudson+Neal&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Parties+choose+known+names%3B+Del.+Kittleman%27s+son+wins+GOP+backing%2C+for+County+Council%3B+Democrats+pick+Slack+Katz%3B+Primary+1998">September 16, 1998, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>October 1998.  The battle in District 3 goes to the air waves, as both Democrat Guy Guzzone and Republican Wanda Hurt air television commercials in what is widely seen as the key race for control of the county council.  Meanwhile Hurt and other GOP council candidates join county executive candidate Dennis Schrader in touting their support for education and trying to put behind them Charles Ecker’s controversial decision to not fully fund the Board of Education request and instead go for a small tax cut.  (Guzzone dismisses the joint announcement as a “stunt.”)</p>
<p>Republicans also address that other perennial county issue, development, with Allan Kittleman and Christopher Merdon proposing restrictions on residential growth.  Schrader praises Kittleman’s and Merdon’s “good ideas” (while declining to fully endorse them) and separately calls for redevelopment of the US Route 1 corridor in eastern Howard.  Merdon’s focus on managing development doesn’t help him with the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> however, as the <em>Sun</em> endorses his Democratic opponent George Layman, pointing to his experience with county zoning issues.</p>
<p>In other races, Greg Fox hopes his “high energy” pays off with a win in District 4 against Democratic incumbent Mary Lorsung, and District 5 candidate Debra Ann Slack-Katz laments the Democrats being “late on the draw” in matching the coordinated messaging put forth by the county’s Republican candidates (“I would have liked to have had more exposure, quite honestly”).  District 3 candidate Guy Guzzone is the exception among the Democrats, as he continues his campaign blitz of TV ads, mailers, knocking on doors, and personalized notes to voters. (“This is by far the hardest thing I’ve ever worked at in all my life,” he observes.)  His reward is a <em>Baltimore Sun</em> endorsement; the <em>Sun</em> also endorses incumbents C. Vernon Gray and Mary Lorsung, as well as first-time candidate Allan Kittleman.</p>
<p>(Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-05/news/1998278095_1_guzzone-district-3-county-council">Council control likely to be set in District 3</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/58448679.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+5%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council+control+likely+to+be+set+in+District+3%3B+Guzzone%2C+Hurt+step+up+pace+of+campaigns+as+parties+seek+majority">October 5, 1998, 1B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-07/news/1998280146_1_county-council-candidates-education-budget-schools-budget">Republicans list education goals</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/34907302.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+7%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Republicans+list+education+goals%3B+But+Democrats+say+GOP+hopefuls+trying+to+steal+their+issue">October 7, 1998, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-15/news/1998288135_1_kittleman-traffic-studies-school-crowding">Two County Council candidates propose standards for growth</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35127553.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+15%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Two+County+Council+candidates+propose+standards+for+growth%3B+Kittleman+and+Merdon+want+tighter+restrictions+on+schools%2C+traffic%2C+studies">October 15, 1998, 3B</a>; Jamal Watson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-22/news/1998295042_1_schrader-1-corridor-county-council">Schrader promises to revitalize portions of the US 1 corridor</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35321919.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+22%2C+1998&amp;author=Jamal+E.+Watson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Schrader+promises+to+revitalize+portions+of+the+U.S.+1+corridor%3B+Republican+would+create+redevelopment+zones%2C+apply+for+grants%2C+he+says%3B+CAMPAIGN+1998">October 22, 3B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-26/news/1998299073_1_layman-howard-county-council-board-of-appeals">Layman in 1st Council District</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35396166.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+26%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Layman+in+1st+Council+District%3B+Sun+endorsement%3A+Zoning+appeals+board+veteran+could+contribute+to+Howard+County+Council.">October 26, 1998, 8A</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-28/news/1998301098_1_democratic-council-council-candidates-lorsung">Challenger counting on “high energy”</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35478913.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+28%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Challenger+counting+on+%60high+energy%27%3B+GOP+candidate+Fox+is+running+for+Lorsung%27s+council+seat%3B+%60District+needs+a+voice%27%3B+Some+Democrats+decry+what+they+see+as+lack+of+team+effort">October 28, 1998, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-28/news/1998301073_1_guzzone-3rd-district-seat-county-council">Guzzone for 3rd District seat</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35478937.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+28%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Guzzone+for+3rd+District+seat%3B+Sun+endorsement%3A+Growing+southern+Howard+needs+a+strong+advocate+on+the+County+Council.">October 28, 18A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-27/news/1998300044_1_howard-county-council-gray-council-district">Gray for 2nd Council District</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35437725.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+27%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Gray+for+2nd+Council+District%3B+Sun+endorsement%3A+Howard+County+Council+member+seeking+fifth+term+offers+valuable+perspective.">October 27, 14A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-29/news/1998302154_1_lorsung-howard-county-farragut">Re-elect Lorsung in the 4th</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35522286.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+29%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Re-elect+Lorsung+in+the+4th%3B+Sun+endorsement%3A+Howard+County+councilwoman+lived+up+to+her+sterling+resume+during+first+term.">October 29, 20A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-10-30/news/1998303133_1_kittleman-howard-county-5th-district">Kittleman for 5th District seat</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35570602.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+30%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=KITTLEMAN+FOR+5TH+DISTRICT+SEAT%3B+Sun+endorsement%3A+Republican+council+candidate%27s+ideas%2C+not+merely+his+familiar+surname%2C+merit+support.">October 30, 18A</a>.)</p>
<p>November 1998.  Former council member Dennis Schrader’s bet on moving up to the county executive position proves to be a loss twice over for Howard County Republicans, as Democrat James Robey defeats him by a comfortable 55&ndash;45% margin and Wanda Hurt, his would-be successor in District 3, is crushed by Guy Guzzone 58&ndash;42%.  Democratic council incumbents C. Vernon Gray and Mary Lorsung win re-election by equally impressive margins in Columbia-dominated Districts 2 and 4 respectively.  Christopher Merdon and Allan Kittleman retain Districts 1 and 5 respectively for Republicans, with Kittleman in particular rolling up the highest vote totals of any council candidate.  However Hurt’s loss means that control of the county council passes to the Democrats.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>Although some of the blame for the reversal is attached to Schrader (who performed less well than other Republicans in District 5, home of his GOP primary opponent Charles Feaga), Howard County Republicans and others see the results as reflecting national trends, including most notably the unpopularity of Newt Gingrich and the GOP congressional majority.  (“I went down and checked off every Democratic box, even for people I didn’t know,” says one voter.  “I think Newt Gingrich is disgusting.”)  County GOP chair Carol Arscott comments, “I’ve coined a new phrase: All politics is national.  I understand now how the Democrats felt in 1994.”</p>
<p>(Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-11-04/news/1998308107_1_robey-schrader-county-council">Democrat Robey defeats Schrader in executive race</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35722771.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+4%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrat+Robey+defeats+Schrader+in+executive+race%3B+Victory+over+opponent+helped+by+high+turnout%2C+strong+run+by+Glendening%3B+ELECTION+1998">November 4, 1998, 8D</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-11-04/news/1998308116_1_democratic-incumbents-guzzone-precincts">Democrats seize council</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35722764.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+4%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrats+seize+council%3B+Guzzone+prevails+over+Republican+Hurt+in+swing+district%3B+Columbia+incumbents+win%3B+ELECTION+1998">November 4, 1998, 1D</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-11-05/news/1998309096_1_republicans-and-democrats-newt-gingrich-county-executive">Tide takes out GOP</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/35722947.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+5%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Tide+takes+out+GOP%3B+Democrats+win+executive+slot%2C+council+majority%3B+%60Gingrich+is+disgusting%27%3B+Reversal+from+1994+attributed+to+dislike+of+Congress%27+actions">November 5, 1998, 1C</a>.)</p>
<p>December 1998.  Republican county executive Charles Ecker steps down and the 3&ndash;2 Republican council majority ends, as Democrat James Robey becomes county executive and Democratic incumbents C. Vernon Gray and Mary Lorsung are joined by Guy Guzzone to create a 3&ndash;2 Democratic majority on the county council.  Gray is elected chair of the council and Lorsung vice chair.</p>
<p>The newly-sworn-in officeholders shy away from talk of radical changes and emphasize the need for unity in addressing challenges facing the county.  However, as the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> notes,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Party differences are likely to harden when the council handles redistricting after the 2000 census.  The power to draw new councilmanic districts is perhaps the Democrats’ biggest prize for reclaiming the majority, giving the party a chance to solidify its base by shifting conservative voters from the three Democratic-held districts.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-12-08/news/1998342086_1_robey-council-members-county-council">New leaders take charge</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/36656183.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+8%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=New+leaders+take+charge%3B+Robey%2C+Democratic+council+majority+stress+need+for+unity">December 8, 1998, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>Thus did the brief era of Republican dominance in Howard County end, with the GOP having the ill-luck of prevailing in the only county election of the 1990s that had no impact on council redistricting.  In the next post we’ll see how the new electoral dynamics affected council redistricting after the 2000 census.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The <em>Sun</em> article “Hurt finds peace in GOP” on the dispute between Wanda Hurt and Kirk Halpin is noteworthy for two reasons.  First, it highlights the extent to which the Howard County Republican party during its era of electoral success was populated by ex-Democrats and others whom in the current climate would likely be characterized as “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_In_Name_Only">Republicans In Name Only</a>.”  Second, the article is a classic example of journalistic snark, from the opening paragraphs to the final sentence.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The official 1998 primary election results for the county executive and county council races were as follows (incumbents are marked with an asterisk):</p>
<ul>
<li>County executive (R): Dennis Schrader, 7,559 (52%); Charles Feaga, 6,902 (48%).</li>
<li>District 1 (R): Christopher Merdon, 1,980 (68%); Timothy McCoy, 929 (32%).</li>
<li>District 2 (D): C. Vernon Gray (*), 3,019 (79%); James Fitzgerald, 826 (21%).</li>
<li>District 3 (R): Wanda Hurt, 1,443 (71%); Kirk Halpin, 584 (29%).</li>
<li>District 5 (D): Debra Ann Slack-Katz, 1,978 (65%); Bernard Hoppinger, 1,078 (35%).</li>
<li>District 5 (R): Allan Kittleman, 2,665 (58%); Gail Bates, 1,620 (35%); James Adams, 191 (4%); Xaver Gramkow, 89 (2%).</li>
</ul>
<p>James Robey was unopposed in the Democratic primary for county executive, as were the Democratic candidates in Council Districts 1, 3, and 4, and the Republican candidates in Council Districts 2 and 4.</p>
<p>(Election results are from the <a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/mdmanual/36loc/how/elect/primary/how1998p.html">Howard County 1998 primary election returns</a> page hosted by the Maryland State Archives.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The official 1998 general election results for the county executive and county council races were as follows (incumbents are marked with an asterisk):</p>
<ul>
<li>County executive: James Robey (D), 44,960 (55%); Dennis Schrader (R), 36,746 (45%).</li>
<li>District 1: Christopher Merdon (R), 9,560 (59%); George Layman (D), 6,676 (41%).</li>
<li>District 2: C. Vernon Gray (D) (*), 9,289 (60%); Susan Cook (R), 6,204 (40%).</li>
<li>District 3: Guy Guzzone (D), 7,679 (58%); Wanda Hurt (R), 5,522 (42%).</li>
<li>District 4: Mary Lorsung (D) (*), 9,466 (58%); Gregory Fox (R), 6,765 (42%).</li>
<li>District 5: Allan Kittleman (R), 12,071 (64%); Debra Ann Slack-Katz (D), 6,853 (36%).</li>
</ul>
<p>Turnout for the 1998 general election was 64%, down considerably from the almost 70% turnout in the 1994 general election but significantly higher than the 57% turnout in 1990.  Democratic turnout was slightly higher than Republican turnout (68% vs. 66%).  Of those voting, the party breakdown was 50.4% Democratic, 37.5% Republican, and 12.1% independent (i.e., unaffiliated or registered with other parties).  Compared to 1994 Democrats made up 1% less of the electorate and independents about 1% more, with Republicans remaining the same as a percentage of the electorate.</p>
<p>(Election results are from the <a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/mdmanual/36loc/how/elect/general/how1998.html">Howard County 1998 general election returns</a> page hosted by the Maryland State Archives.  Turnout figures are from my blog post “<a href="/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">Howard County likely voters in the 2010 general election</a>” and sources referenced in that post.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 20</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-20/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 06 Nov 2011 06:40:34 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-20/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/04/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-19/&#34;&gt;part 19&lt;/a&gt; of this series we saw that in 1996 the voters by referendum adopted a change to the Howard County charter to have a redistricting commission create proposals for council district lines, as opposed to having this be the function solely of the council. However the council still had the power to influence the commission through its appointment of a seventh “tie-breaker” member.  In this post and the next we review the council elections of 1998, which would determine the balance of power in drawing district lines after the 2000 census.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2011/10/04/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-19/">part 19</a> of this series we saw that in 1996 the voters by referendum adopted a change to the Howard County charter to have a redistricting commission create proposals for council district lines, as opposed to having this be the function solely of the council. However the council still had the power to influence the commission through its appointment of a seventh “tie-breaker” member.  In this post and the next we review the council elections of 1998, which would determine the balance of power in drawing district lines after the 2000 census.</p>
<p>January 1998.  The <em>Baltimore Sun</em> notes that 1998 will see “the largest turnover among institutional leaders in Howard’s history,” with Padraic Kennedy retiring as president of the Columbia Association after more than 25 years, Dwight Burrill retiring as president of Howard Community College after 16 years, Charles Ecker leaving the county executive position (due to term limits) after 8 years, James Robey retiring as police chief after 8 years (and 22 years on the force), and Darrel Drown leaving the county council after 8 years. Robey plans to seek the Democratic nomination for county executive, with Republican council members Charles Feaga and Dennis Schrader pitched to seek the position as well, leaving no incumbent Republicans on the council.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-01-01/news/1998001008_1_general-assembly-anne-arundel-key-issues">The Year Ahead in Maryland</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/25134527.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jan+1%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=The+Year+Ahead+in+Maryland%3B+Outlook%3A+Elections%2C+growth+plans+are+among+issues+facing+state%2C+region.">January 1, 1998, 18A</a>.)</p>
<p>March&ndash;April 1998.  Former county Republican chair Allan Kittleman announces his candidacy for the District 5 council seat of Charles Feaga.  The 39-year-old Kittleman touts his long experience in local GOP circles (“I’ve been going to Republican events . . . since I was my children’s age”) as the son of long-time state legislator Robert Kittleman (who notes in turn, “I’m proud of him.  He’s a good kid.”). Opposing Kittleman in the GOP primary is Charles Ecker aide and Feaga ally Gail Bates.</p>
<p>In council district 2 former school board chair Susan Cook becomes the latest Republican to go up against C. Vernon Gray in what the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> calls a “political kamikaze mission” (“I am well aware I am the underdog,” acknowledges Cook), and in district 4 first-time Republican candidate K. Gregory Fox looks to unseat incumbent Democrat Mary Lorsung.  Republicans Kirk Halpin and Wanda Hurt and Democrat Guy Guzzone vie to win the open council seat vacated by Dennis Schrader in District 3.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Meanwhile the competition between Charles Feaga and Dennis Schrader for the GOP nomination for county executive causes tension within the Howard County Republican party, as some suspect local GOP activists Paul and Margaret Rappaport of favoring Democratic candidate James Robey if Dennis Schrader wins the Republican primary.  In response the GOP Central Committee asks all GOP candidates (including Margaret Rappaport, who is running again for Clerk of the Circuit Court) to sign a “unity pledge” promising to support only Republican candidates in the general election.  Paul Rappaport counters: “I think the Republicans have a good family and they ought to keep it together. They don’t need a contract to do that.”<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>(Craig Timberg, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-03-09/news/1998068112_1_kittleman-howard-county-sauerbrey">GOP scion seeks office</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/27082293.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Mar+9%2C+1998&amp;author=Craig+Timberg&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=GOP+scion+seeks+office%3B+Ex-party+chairman+Allan+Kittleman+runs+for+County+Council%3B+Seeks+to+succeed+Feaga%3B+Sauerbrey+introduces+him+at+announcement+of+his+candidacy">March 9, 1998, 1B</a>; Dana Hedgpeth, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-03-17/news/1998076098_1_school-board-race-east-columbia-county-council">Cook to run against Gray</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/27461494.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Mar+17%2C+1998&amp;author=Dana+Hedgpeth&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Cook+to+run+against+Gray%3B+Republican+candidate+faces+%60uphill+battle%27+for+County+Council%3B+Quayle+appears+at+dinner">March 17, 1998, 1B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-04-09/news/1998099172_1_guzzone-hurt-county-council">Hurt kicks off council campaign</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/28548689.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Apr+9%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Hurt+kicks+off+council+campaign%3B+%60Swing%27+seat+race+expected+to+be+most+competitive">April 9, 1998, 1B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-04-26/news/1998116113_1_vernon-gray-council-majority-school-board-chairwoman">Republican kicks off race to unseat incumbent Gray</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/29126362.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Apr+26%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Republican+kicks+off+race+to+unseat+incumbent+Gray%3B+Cook+the+%60underdog%27+in+council+campaign">April 26, 1998, 1B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-04-20/news/1998110040_1_west-columbia-gregory-fox-columbia-democrat">Fox acknowledges an “uphill” candidacy</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/28831885.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Apr+20%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Fox+acknowledges+an+%60uphill%27+candidacy%3B+Howard+Co.+Republican+vies+for+spot+on+council+in+Democratic+district">April 20, 1998, 12B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-04-10/news/1998100090_1_republican-candidates-republican-party-republican-central-committee">GOP asks candidates to vow loyalty</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/28562021.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Apr+10%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=GOP+asks+candidates+to+vow+loyalty%3B+Pledge+would+ensure+support+for+party+picks+in+general+election%3B+Republican+in-fighting%3B+Some+fear+activists+would+back+Democrat+if+Feaga+loses+primary">April 10, 1998, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>May 1998.  Republican council member and county executive candidate Dennis Schrader finds himself in a bind over whether or not to support the Board of Education’s proposed budget or go with Charles Ecker’s proposal for a tax cut and a smaller increase in school funding.  In the end Schrader joins fellow Republicans Charles Feaga and Darrel Drown in approving a compromise budget that adds money to Ecker’s request but falls slightly short of the full Board of Education request.  They come under attack not only by Democratic candidates James Robey and Guy Guzzone (“Education is the crown jewel in Howard County’s crown, and what they’ve done is tarnish that jewel,” charges Robey) but also by Susan Cook and Wanda Hurt, the Republican council candidates in Districts 2 and 3 respectively (Cook: “Yes, I am a Republican.  However, I am a Howard countian first.”).”<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>However Cook and Hurt aren’t joined by their fellow council candidate (and Ecker aide) Gail Bates, who launches her campaign for a District 5 seat once thought to be hers to lose (“If there’s such a thing as earning a position on the County Council, she fits the description 100 per cent” claims current District 5 member Charles Feaga) before being challenged by Allan Kittleman.</p>
<p>(Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-05-10/news/1998130183_1_schrader-ecker-county-executive">Candidate in dilemma as vote nears</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/29700933.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=May+10%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Candidate+in+dilemma+as+vote+nears%3B+Schrader%27s+position+will+decide+dispute+on+school+spending%3B+%60A+lot+of+homework+to+do%27%3B+Councilman+runs+for+county+executive+with+factions+to+please">May 10, 1998, 1B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-05-21/news/1998141144_1_democrat-and-republican-republican-candidates-republican-council">Both parties’ candidates attack school-budget action</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/58191959.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=May+21%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Both+parties%27+candidates+attack+school-budget+action%3B+GOP+hopes+to+avoid+rift+over+education">May 21, 1998, 1B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-05-31/news/1998151103_1_bates-kittleman-cream-social">Bates kicks off campaign today with ice cream social</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/29943467.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=May+31%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Bates+kicks+off+campaign+today+with+ice+cream+social%3B+Howard+council+candidate+stresses+quality+of+life">May 31, 1998, 3B</a>.)</p>
<p>June-July 1998.  In District 1 second-time council candidate George Layman faces questions about his commitment to campaigning (“You’re running for a part-time position, but you’re expected to run a full-time campaign,” he complains), especially in a race against 27-year-old Republican candidate Christopher Merdon, who’s supposedly knocked on 6,000 voter doors thus far.  Merdon touts his support of “managed growth” and his pledge not to accept contributions from developers (unlike Layman).  The District 1 field gets larger, as Merdon is challenged by Timothy McCoy.  Layman sees another would-be challenger, James Loar, file at the last minute and then quickly drop out, as Loar doesn’t realize the amount of time and money he’d need to mount a campaign (“I guess in one week I learned a lot”).</p>
<p>Meanwhile Susan Cook and Wanda Hurt reap no benefit from their dissent from the local GOP’s stance on school funding, as the Howard County Education Association votes an (almost) straight Democratic ticket, including an endorsement of Guy Guzzone, Hurt’s opponent in District 3.  (Hurt is not surprised: “The teachers union always endorses Democrats, period.  Republicans need not apply.”)  Guzzone’s bid, along with that of James Robey, is seen by Democrats, including Guzzone himself, as key to their retaking control of the county government from Republicans: “Even if my opponents happen to be good on the education issue or any other issue, the bottom line is they are going to cast a vote for their party on redistricting.”</p>
<p>(Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-06-04/news/1998155134_1_layman-ellicott-drown">Democrat vows intensified bid for council</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/29989430.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+4%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrat+vows+intensified+bid+for+council%3B+Layman+seeks+more+cash+from+builders+and+others+in+his+second+candidacy">June 4, 1998, 3B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-07-08/news/1998189135_1_layman-ellicott-developers">Merdon vows not to accept developers’ contributions</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/31756957.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+8%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Merdon+vows+not+to+accept+developers%27+contributions%3B+Council+candidate%27s+focus+is+managed+growth">July 8, 1998, 3B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-07-17/news/1998198104_1_loar-retracting-race">Retired fire captain enters politics, then thinks better of it</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/32088518.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+17%2C+1998&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Retired+fire+captain+enters+politics%2C+then+thinks+better+of+it%3B+Loar+pulls+out+of+race+for+council+--+twice">July 17, 1998, 3B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-06-04/news/1998155133_1_guzzone-democratic-party-teachers">3 Democrats get teachers’ endorsement for council</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/29989410.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+4%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=3+Democrats+get+teachers%27+endorsement+for+council">June 4, 1998, 3B</a>; Gady Epstein, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1998-07-26/news/1998207118_1_democrats-win-democratic-party-county-executive">Party aims to regain power</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/32501244.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+26%2C+1998&amp;author=Gady+A.+Epstein&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Party+aims+to+regain+power%3B+Democrats+campaign+for+executive%27s+seat%2C+council+majority%3B+%60A+critical+election%27%3B+Two+sides+look+ahead+to+controlling+revision+of+districts+lines+in+%2700">July 26, 1998, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>I’ll continue the story of the 1998 county council elections in <a href="/2011/11/06/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-21/">part 21</a>.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The <em>Baltimore Sun</em> story “Cook to run against Gray” strongly implies that Wanda Hurt was running against Guy Guzzone in the Democratic primary.  That was an error either by the reporter or introduced in editing: Hurt had previously run (unsuccessfully) as a Democrat for the House of Delegates in 1994, but had switched parties prior to the 1998 council race.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Like many Howard County Republicans in the latter half of the 20th century, Margaret Rappaport originally ran for office as a Democrat, being elected as a Judge of the Orphans Court in 1986; she then switched parties and was elected Clerk of the Circuit Court as a Republican in 1990.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>It’s worth noting that the school funding controversy was over a $1.2 million difference between the council-approved budget and the Board of Education request, amounting to less than one per cent of an over $200 million total education budget.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Changing my (blog) name, plus Plus</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/30/changing-my-blog-name-plus-plus/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 30 Oct 2011 00:13:12 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/30/changing-my-blog-name-plus-plus/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;For those following this blog, note that I’ve changed the canonical site name from blog.hecker.org to frankhecker.com.  Any links and feed URLs referencing the previous domain name will still work for the foreseeable future, but if and when you have time you may want to update your bookmark list, RSS newsreaders, and related information to reflect the new name.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A little history by way of background: I was around when the Internet was first being commercialized, and I had the opportunity to register hecker.com for myself if I really wanted to.  However I passed because I didn’t have a server to associate with it and I thought I needed to be running an actual server in order to register the name (though I’m not sure that was the case even then).  When I finally got around to having a personal server in the late 1990s I found that hecker.com had already been taken by a company that registered thousands of surname domains so that they could offer a shared domain service in which multiple people could have their own personal subdomains under a top-level domain: jane.smith.com, john.smith.com, and so on.  So I settled on the next best thing and registered hecker.org instead for use as my primary domain, at the same time registering frankhecker.com (as well as the .org and .net variants) to prevent anyone else from getting it.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those following this blog, note that I’ve changed the canonical site name from blog.hecker.org to frankhecker.com.  Any links and feed URLs referencing the previous domain name will still work for the foreseeable future, but if and when you have time you may want to update your bookmark list, RSS newsreaders, and related information to reflect the new name.</p>
<p>A little history by way of background: I was around when the Internet was first being commercialized, and I had the opportunity to register hecker.com for myself if I really wanted to.  However I passed because I didn’t have a server to associate with it and I thought I needed to be running an actual server in order to register the name (though I’m not sure that was the case even then).  When I finally got around to having a personal server in the late 1990s I found that hecker.com had already been taken by a company that registered thousands of surname domains so that they could offer a shared domain service in which multiple people could have their own personal subdomains under a top-level domain: jane.smith.com, john.smith.com, and so on.  So I settled on the next best thing and registered hecker.org instead for use as my primary domain, at the same time registering frankhecker.com (as well as the .org and .net variants) to prevent anyone else from getting it.</p>
<p>When I first started a blog I hosted it at hecker.org using custom blogging software.  I later got tired of the management hassles involved, and moved my blog to WordPress.com, using the subdomain blog.hecker.org because I was still hosting other things at hecker.org and couldn’t afford to dedicate the entire domain just to my blog.  Since then though the blog has assumed more importance as my public face to the world, and I regretted having a somewhat unusual domain name for it.  I’ve therefore decided to adopt the conventional approach and use frankhecker.com as my primary blog name.  (As noted above the old name of blog.hecker.org will continue to work, thanks to the magic of HTTP redirects.)</p>
<p>Note that my primary personal email address remains <a href="mailto:hecker@hecker.org">hecker@hecker.org</a>; I have no plans to change that.  However I can also receive email at frankhecker.com, so for example sending email to <a href="mailto:frank@frankhecker.com">frank@frankhecker.com</a> will get to the same inbox as <a href="mailto:hecker@hecker.org">hecker@hecker.org</a>.  I may switch over completely to frankhecker.com for all uses in future, but in the meantime there’s no need to update your address book.</p>
<p>In other news, I’m now on Google Plus so you can add me to one of your circles if you’d like.  I’ve been meaning to try Google Plus out before now, but I use Google Apps for my email and related services, and Google Plus wasn’t added to Google Apps until this week.  I’ll publish notices of new blog posts to Google Plus, and maybe some other stuff from time to time.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Creating a blueprint for growing Maryland jobs</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/27/creating-a-blueprint-for-growing-maryland-jobs/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 27 Oct 2011 19:38:21 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/27/creating-a-blueprint-for-growing-maryland-jobs/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/blueprint-maryland.gif&#34;&gt;&lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/blueprint-maryland.gif#floattopleft&#34; title=&#34;blueprint-maryland&#34;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;How can Maryland promote job growth and the well-being of its citizens as the economy languishes and Federal spending shows every sign of declining, never to rise again?  Should Maryland seek to model itself on its next-door rival, Virginia, or even on Texas and other states in the south touting themselves as “business-friendly” destinations?  Or is there another way to grow Maryland and make it a better place to live and work, one that takes into account Maryland’s own characteristics and doesn’t try to make it into something it’s not and never could be?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/blueprint-maryland.gif"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/blueprint-maryland.gif#floattopleft" title="blueprint-maryland"></a></p>
<p>How can Maryland promote job growth and the well-being of its citizens as the economy languishes and Federal spending shows every sign of declining, never to rise again?  Should Maryland seek to model itself on its next-door rival, Virginia, or even on Texas and other states in the south touting themselves as “business-friendly” destinations?  Or is there another way to grow Maryland and make it a better place to live and work, one that takes into account Maryland’s own characteristics and doesn’t try to make it into something it’s not and never could be?</p>
<p>I’ve been thinking about this a while, and was moved to write by the publication by <a href="http://www.blueprintmaryland.org/">Blueprint Maryland</a> of a <a href="http://blueprint-maryland.com/images/uploads/policyfiledownload/roundtables.pdf">draft report</a> [PDF] summarizing comments by people attending a series of roundtables on how Maryland can adapt to the changing economy.  (One of these roundtable events was held last month in Turf Valley, and another at the BWI Marriott.  Perhaps some of the readers of this blog attended and could comment on them?)<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>The draft report is well-worth reading in whole but by its nature it’s somewhat disjointed, reflecting as it does the many and varied comments of the people who attended the roundtables.  Rather than discuss each of the many ideas contained within I prefer to step back a little and try to provide a high-level vision of what I think Maryland should be doing to transition to a new 21st-century economy.  So without further ado here’s my own “napkin sketch” of what a blueprint for Maryland could look like:</p>
<p>First, although we can and should learn from the experience of Virginia and other states we should ditch the idea that all we have to do is make Maryland more like Virginia.  Socially, politically, and economically Maryland is not like Virginia and likely never will be.  I moved to Maryland from out of this area, and if I wanted to live in a state like Virginia I would have either gone there to begin with or crossed the Potomac many years ago.  I’m sure the same is true of many people who currently live here.</p>
<p>Virginia does what it does very well, and has a well-established “state brand” that reflects its various aspects: relatively socially and politically conservative, and combining high-tech modernity with “business-friendliness” in the sense usually used in the US, e.g., having low taxes, anti-union measures, and so on.  There’s no way Maryland is going to be able to match Virginia in those aspects any time soon, and even if it did historical perceptions would likely still hold sway and limit Maryland’s competitiveness in attracting businesses and people looking for a Virginia-like environment.  Why settle for a (pale) copy when you can have the original?</p>
<p>So what we should focus on in Maryland?  I think we should take our cue from a statement in the draft roundtable report: “A key issue raised [was] the over-regulation in Maryland, and this appeared to be an even greater concern than the high taxes.” People certainly don’t like taxes (as evidenced by the recent discussion of a <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2011/10/its-gas-tax-tax-wednesday-links.html">proposed gas tax</a>), but politically there’s little or no chance of Maryland turning into a low-tax haven.  So instead of obsessing about taxes why don’t we instead put a major focus on reducing the regulatory burden?  This could cover not just the traditional concerns of businesses large and small, but also address regulatory issues that affect both businesses in emerging industries and entrepreneurial individuals (freelancers, people with home businesses, street vendors, and so on), neither of which groups are necessarily well-represented by the existing business lobbies.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>At the same time we could take the taxes we’re not going to be reducing and focus on spending them on the core public goods for which we have government in the first place, including most notably public safety, public infrastructure, and the creation of a healthy, well-educated population that has the personal and family security to take the life chances that will be required to be successful in a 21st-century global economy that would otherwise be very stressful for the middle class and the poor.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/cross-the-streams.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/cross-the-streams.jpg#floattopright" title="cross-the-streams"></a></p>
<p>If we’re not going to try and make Maryland into “Virginia-lite,” what should we model ourselves on?  Is it even possible to combine a vibrant, dynamic, and relatively unregulated free-market economy with a robust social safety net and other government-funded measures to benefit the average citizen?  Wouldn’t that amount to an example of politically “<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyaLZHiJJnE">crossing the streams</a>”?  “It would be bad,” as Egon Spengler warned, even if didn’t result in every molecule in our bodies exploding at the speed of light.  But as those who’ve seen Ghostbusters can testify, the plucky band of heroes did indeed cross the streams to great success, averting a “disaster of biblical proportions.”</p>
<p>In this case there’s an “existence proof” (as the mathematicians say) not in any US state, but rather in the country of Denmark.  For quite some time now various people, including many of the libertarian persuasion like <a href="http://willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/23/the-possibility-of-big-and-free/">Will Wilkinson</a>, have been touting Denmark as showing that you can have your cake and eat it too when it comes to free markets.  Denmark is rated as high or higher as the US on measures of economic freedom published by the <a href="http://www.heritage.org/index/">Heritage Foundation</a> and others, but at the same time has generously-funded social insurance, public education, and so on; in fact, strictly speaking Denmark is actually significantly economically freer than the US when it comes to regulatory measures, but gets ranked lower than it otherwise might be because of its much higher level of taxation and government spending.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images//flags-small.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/flags-small-embed.png#floattopleft" title="flags"></a></p>
<p>Some people object to comparing Denmark to the US because it’s such a small country.  But comparing it to Maryland makes more sense; they’re about the same size (16,641 square miles for Denmark vs. 12,407 for Maryland) and have about the same number of people (5.6 million vs. 5.8 million).  When it comes to various measures of economic well-being though Denmark takes the lead: Maryland’s per-capita income is relatively high at $43,500, but Denmark’s is even higher at $56,147; Denmark also has a lower unemployment rate (recently 6.6% vs. 7.5% for Maryland), less income inequality, with a Gini coefficient of 0.25 vs. Maryland’s 0.44 (itself actually fairly low in comparison to the rest of the US), and a higher rate of economic mobility than the US (i.e., the ability of someone to make it from a lower socioeconomic class to a higher one).<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>Of course there are also significant differences between Denmark and Maryland: Maryland’s freedom of action is hampered by the US Federal government (Denmark is a member of the European Union but did not adopt the euro), the US and even Maryland political climate is much more hostile to high government spending (the center-right <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venstre_%28Denmark%29">party that until recently ruled Denmark</a> would likely be considered raving socialists in the US context), and Denmark is much more ethnically homogeneous than Maryland (with over 90% of the population being native Danes).  That limits the extent to which Maryland could adopt generous social programs to complement a <em>laissez-faire</em> regulatory framework.</p>
<p>But even given that, I think the key to finding answers for Maryland’s economy is starting with the right questions, and I think “how can Maryland be more like Virginia” is the wrong question to ask.  I think a much better question would be, how can Maryland be more like Denmark?</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>For more background information see Blueprint Maryland’s <a href="http://blueprint-maryland.com/images/uploads/policyfiledownload/vulnerabilityreport.pdf" title="Maryland’s Business Climate and Vulnerability to Federal Downsizing">previous report</a> [PDF] on Maryland’s vulnerability to Federal government downsizing.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>For one example of Maryland regulations adversely affecting emerging industries see my <a href="/2011/03/12/maryland-says-no-dtc-genetic-testing-for-you/">blog post on 23andMe</a>, a direct-to-consumer genetics testing company that was funded by a venture capital firm with Maryland offices but that itself can’t do business in Maryland.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>Figures are from the Wikipedia articles on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denmark">Denmark</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland">Maryland</a>, except for the information on the Maryland Gini coefficient (from the <a href="http://www.green.maryland.gov/mdgpi/2a.asp">Maryland state government</a>) and economic mobility (from the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_mobility">associated Wikipedia article</a>).&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 19</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/04/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-19/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 04 Oct 2011 18:25:59 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/04/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-19/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-18/&#34;&gt;part 18&lt;/a&gt; of this series Republicans overcame the disadvantage imposed on them by the recently-adopted redistricting plan and gained a majority on the county council in the general election of 1994.  We now review how the council tried to avoid a replay of the redistricting battle of 1991&amp;ndash;1993:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;July 1996.  The Howard County Council considers a proposal to establish a separate commission to devise council redistricting plans, as opposed to having the council create plans itself.  The proposal envisions a seven-member commission with three members appointed by the Democratic and Republican Central Committees and a “tie-breaker” member appointed by the council.  The commission’s plan would be presented to the council, which could adopt it as-is, modify it, or create a new plan; however the commission plan would automatically go into effect in the event of a council stalemate.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2011/10/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-18/">part 18</a> of this series Republicans overcame the disadvantage imposed on them by the recently-adopted redistricting plan and gained a majority on the county council in the general election of 1994.  We now review how the council tried to avoid a replay of the redistricting battle of 1991&ndash;1993:</p>
<p>July 1996.  The Howard County Council considers a proposal to establish a separate commission to devise council redistricting plans, as opposed to having the council create plans itself.  The proposal envisions a seven-member commission with three members appointed by the Democratic and Republican Central Committees and a “tie-breaker” member appointed by the council.  The commission’s plan would be presented to the council, which could adopt it as-is, modify it, or create a new plan; however the commission plan would automatically go into effect in the event of a council stalemate.</p>
<p>The council seems generally receptive to the proposal.  Although the charter review commission recommends against the proposal, its chair Thomas Meachum supports it as providing an alternative to potential deadlock and making the process less partisan: “It doesn’t remove, but it dilutes the political aspects of redistricting.”  And in any case, as Kenneth Stevens notes in testimony before the council, “You’d have to bring in aliens from outer space to get politics out of the process.”</p>
<p>The council approves placing the redistricting commission question on the November ballot as a county charter change for the voters to consider.  However council Democrats C. Vernon Gray and Mary Lorsung torpedo other proposed charter changes, denying council Republicans the 4&ndash;1 majority needed to place the changes on the ballot.  One item shot down is a proposal by Darrel Drown to increase from 10,000 to 20,000 the number of signatures required to put the termination of Howard County’s charter status to a referendum; Mary Lorsung claims, “If the government of the county were in such bad shape that you could get 10,000 signatures, then things are in bad enough shape to go out and get the opinion of [voters].”<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>(Craig Timberg, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1996-07-16/news/1996198038_1_political-redistricting-redistricting-commission-council-members">Redistricting commission wins support</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/49472209.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+16%2C+1996&amp;author=Craig+Timberg&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redistricting+commission+wins+support%3B+Proposal+would+name+citizen+panel+to+help+redraw+political+maps%3B+Public+hearing+held%3B+Backers+say+change+aims+to+make+process+fairer%2C+less+partisan">July 16, 1996, 1B</a>; Craig Timberg, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1996-07-26/news/1996208062_1_county-council-proposal-columbia-democrat">Council Democrats stymie the GOP</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/49477322.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+26%2C+1996&amp;author=Craig+Timberg&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council+Democrats+stymie+the+GOP%3B+Pair+unify+to+kill+three+more+proposed+charter+changes">July 26, 1996, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>October 1996.  The <em>Baltimore Sun</em> urges Howard County voters to reject the redistricting commission proposal (Question B) for not meeting the goal of getting politics out of redistricting: “The commission would be just as political as the County Council, which now draws the lines.  . . .  The proposal, Question B, falsely gives an impression of removing politics from redistricting.  Voters should reject it.”  The <em>Sun</em> recommends approval of the other twelve proposed charter changes, including one to make all pronouns in the charter gender-neutral.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1996-10-30/news/1996304099_1_question-b-ballot-questions-question-i">Ballot questions</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/49550795.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+30%2C+1996&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Ballot+questions%3B+Howard+County%3A+Question+B+should+be+rejected%2C+but+A+and+C-M+provide+clarity%2C+flexibility.">October 30, 1996, 20A</a>.)</p>
<p>November 1996.  Former council candidate John Taylor joins the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> in urging rejection of Question B, the redistricting commission proposal; Taylor objects to the provision disallowing any voter referendum on redistricting plans: “There is an ominous trend lately in some quarters to attempt to eliminate or restrict the right of “we the people” to participate in major decisions that affect us all.” Tom Flynn, a member of the charter review commission, calls attention to the fact (not specifically mentioned in materials provided to voters) that the members of the redistricting commission will not be independent citizens but rather will be picked by the two major parties: “By defining the members of the commission on political grounds, you really cut out a lot of qualified people.”</p>
<p>Ignoring the various concerns expressed, Howard County voters vote yes on Question B and establishment of the redistricting commission; they reject four of the other proposed changes, including (by an 84% majority) one which would have corrected a typographical error and changed the term “Appeal Boards” to “Board of Appeals.”  However the voters do support making the charter gender-neutral.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>The section of the county charter dealing with council district boundaries is changed to read as follows:<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Council shall appoint, by resolution, not later than April 1 of the year after each decennial census date, a Councilmanic Redistricting Commission.  The Central Committee of each political party which polled at least twenty-five per centum of the total vote cast for all the candidates for the Office of County Executive in the last preceding general election shall nominate three persons to serve on the Commission.  The Council shall appoint all such nominees as members of the Commission as well as one additional member of the Commission.  The Council shall appoint the Chairperson of the Commission from among the Commission members.  No person shall be eligible for appointment to the Commission who holds elective office.</p>
<p>By October 15 of the year in which the Commission is appointed, the Commission shall prepare a plan of Councilmanic Districts and shall present that plan to the Council.  Within thirty days after receiving the plan of the Commission, the Council shall hold a public hearing on the plan.  If by March 15 of the year following submission of the plan, no ordinance re-establishing the boundaries of the Councilmanic Districts has been enacted, then the plan as submitted by the Commission shall become law.  Any Councilmanic District established in accordance with this Article shall be compact, contiguous, substantially equal in population, and have common interest as a result of geography, occupation, history, or existing political boundaries.  Any ordinance establishing Councilmanic Districts shall be exempt from referendum.</p>
<p>The Board of Supervisors of Elections shall take any necessary steps to implement any such revisions of the Councilmanic District Boundaries so adopted.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Dan Morse, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1996-11-04/news/1996309022_1_commission-members-county-charter-howard-county">Charter changes to face voters</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/49553147.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+4%2C+1996&amp;author=Dan+Morse&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Charter+changes+to+face+voters%3B+13+proposals+included+on+ballot+tomorrow+provide+few+details%3B+Most+are+not+controversial%3B+Others+--+on+districts%2C+ethics+and+purchasing+--+have+drawn+debate%3B+CAMPAIGN+1996">November 4, 1996, 1B</a>; Dan Morse, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1996-11-06/news/1996311097_1_county-charter-charter-review-commission-county-officials">9 county charter changes approved</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/49555165.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+06%2C+1996&amp;author=Dan+Morse&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=9+county+charter+changes+approved%2C+4+rejected%3B+Critics+say+amendments+will+weaken+ethics+laws">November 6, 1996, 5B</a>; Dan Morse, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1996-11-07/news/1996312161_1_board-of-appeals-political-scientists-charter-change">Correct a typo?  No way, voters say</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/49556424.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+07%2C+1996&amp;author=Dan+Morse&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Correct+a+typo%3F+No+way%2C+voters+say%3B+Minor+issue+loses+big%2C+baffling+some+observers">November 7, 1996, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://library.municode.com/HTML/14680/level2/SUHITA_HOCOCH.html">Howard County Charter</a>,” Article II, Section 202, paragraph f.1)</p>
<p>In part 20 of this series we’ll see which party gained control of the council in 1998 and thus positioned itself to more effectively influence the work of the redistricting commission for the post-2000 redistricting effort.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>See <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">part 1</a> of this series for more information on Howard County’s adoption of the original county charter.  If voters were ever to reject Howard County’s charter status then presumably it would revert to being governed by county commissioners lacking any real legislative authority, as was the case prior to the 1960s.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Unfortunately neither the Howard County Board of Elections nor the Maryland State Board of Elections appear to have published online the vote totals for the various Howard County charter questions in 1996.  If anyone knows of an online source for this information please leave a comment.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The language quoted is from the current copy of the charter.  The annotations to the online version of the charter note that “An amendment to [section] 202(f)1.  proposed by Res.  No.  112, 1996 was approved at an election held on Nov.  5, 1996, and became effective Dec.  5, 1996.” This refers to the change adopted by the approval of Question B in 1996.</p>
<p>Also note that strictly speaking the membership of the redistricting commission is not restricted to the Democratic and Republican parties; if by some means a third party were to poll at least 25% of the vote in the county executive race then it also would gain the right to appoint three members of the commission, which would then expand to ten members (three per party plus one appointed by the council).&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 18</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-18/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 02 Oct 2011 23:34:51 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/10/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-18/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/23/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-17/&#34;&gt;part 17&lt;/a&gt; of this series the Howard County Council ended an over two-year battle by finally adopting new councilmanic district lines based on the 1990 census figures.  In this post we see how the new district alignments influenced the council elections in 1994.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;February 1994.  Howard County voter registration figures show Democrats holding a significant edge in party affiliation in four of the five new council districts: Democrats outnumber Republicans 48%&amp;ndash;38% in District 1 (Ellicott City and Elkridge), 54%&amp;ndash;30% in District 2 (east Columbia), 48%&amp;ndash;35% in District 3 (southeast Columbia, Savage and North Laurel), and 54%&amp;ndash;31% in District 4 (west Columbia). Only in District 5 (western Howard) do Republicans have a voter registration advantage, with a slim 44%&amp;ndash;43% majority.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2011/09/23/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-17/">part 17</a> of this series the Howard County Council ended an over two-year battle by finally adopting new councilmanic district lines based on the 1990 census figures.  In this post we see how the new district alignments influenced the council elections in 1994.</p>
<p>February 1994.  Howard County voter registration figures show Democrats holding a significant edge in party affiliation in four of the five new council districts: Democrats outnumber Republicans 48%&ndash;38% in District 1 (Ellicott City and Elkridge), 54%&ndash;30% in District 2 (east Columbia), 48%&ndash;35% in District 3 (southeast Columbia, Savage and North Laurel), and 54%&ndash;31% in District 4 (west Columbia). Only in District 5 (western Howard) do Republicans have a voter registration advantage, with a slim 44%&ndash;43% majority.</p>
<p>However District 1 incumbent Republican Darrel Drown remains optimistic: “Any time it’s 1.4-to-1 or less [Democrats to Republicans], we have a chance.” By Drown’s criterion Districts 1, 3, and 5 are winnable for Republicans, with only District 2 and 4 being Democratic locks.</p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-02-20/news/1994051050_1_voter-registration-totals-registration-numbers-democratic-registration">Democrats have the edge in new council districts</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112021912.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Feb+20%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrats+have+the+edge+in+new+council+districts">February 20, 1994, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>May-August 1994.  District 4 Democratic incumbent Paul Farragut decides not to run for re-election, and recommends his assistant Mary Lorsung as his successor; however she must first face James Kraft (who’s endorsed by District 2 incumbent C. Vernon Gray) in the Democratic primary.  On the Republican side the prospect of an open seat brings out three Republican hopefuls: Robert O’Brien, Riaz Rana, and Mary Ann Wilkinson.</p>
<p>In District 1 Darrel Drown seeks re-election, building on his upset win in 1990 over Angela Beltram and his success in promoting a 1992 county charter change to impose a three-term limit on county council members; Democrat George Layman runs unopposed to challenge him. C. Vernon Gray seeks to extend his winning streak in District 2, going for a fourth term as council member.  Gray gets a primary challenge from Kathryn Mann, while on the GOP side Gary Prestrianni and Evelyn Tanner vie for the opportunity to take Gray on in November.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>(David Michael Ettlin, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-05-12/news/1994132071_1_farragut-seek-re-election-re-election-to-council">Surprising Democrats, Farragut says he won’t seek re-election to council</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111818027.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=May+12%2C+1994&amp;author=David+Michael+Ettlin&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Surprising+Democrats%2C+Farragut+says+he+won%27t+seek+re-election+to+council">May 12, 1994, 1B</a>; Erik Nelson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-05-22/news/1994142075_1_farragut-lorsung-village-board">Democrat Lorsung takes boss’ advice to run for his County Council seat</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111989735.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=May+22%2C+1994&amp;author=Erik+Nelson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrat+Lorsung+takes+boss%27+advice+to+run+for+his+County+Council+seat">May 22, 1994, 11B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-08-25/news/1994237067_1_lorsung-farragut-howard-county">Endorsements in Council District 4</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111963578.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+25%2C+1994&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Endorsements+in+Council+District+4">August 25, 1994, 14A</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-06-07/news/1994158116_1_drown-ecker-elkridge">Drown announces bid for re-election</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111989881.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+7%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Drown+announces+bid+for+re-election">June 7, 1994, 7B</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-11-04/news/1992309153_1_howard-county-county-council-members-limit">Howard voters show overwhelming support for three-term limit on council</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113519498.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+4%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard+voters+show+overwhelming+support+for+three-term+limit+on+council+HOWARD+COUNTY">November 4, 1992, 24A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-08-22/news/1994234134_1_layman-howard-county-district-1">Howard Council’s District 1 Race</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111965284.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+22%2C+1994&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard+Council%27s+District+1+Race">August 22, 1994, 8B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-08-23/news/1994235102_1_gray-zoning-board-mann">Endorsements for Council District 2</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111963792.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+23%2C+1994&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Endorsements+for+Council+District+2">August 23, 1994, 10A</a>.)</p>
<p>After having barely lost to Shane Pendergrass in 1990, Republican Dennis Schrader runs again for a council seat, now that Pendergrass is seeking a seat in the House of Delegates and redistricting has lowered the relative Democratic voter registration advantage in the district. Facing off against Schrader is first-time candidate Charles Acquard. Finally, in District 5 Republican Charles Feaga prepares to run again for a third term on the council.  He’s opposed by his old nemesis, anti-growth activist John Taylor, who in 1990 challenged Feaga in the Republican primary but is now running as a Democrat.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Meanwhile Charles Ecker faces no opposition in the Republican primary for county executive, while on the Democratic side “establishment” candidate Sue-Ellen Hantman is challenged at the last minute by slow-growth activist Susan Gray (“I’m the consummate outsider; I’m on a lot of people’s dart boards”).  Ecker looks forward to the match-up: “It’ll be good to watch.”</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-08-24/news/1994236079_1_district-3-schrader-council-district">Endorsements for Council District 3</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111963705.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+24%2C+1994&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Endorsements+for+Council+District+3">August 24, 1994, 12A</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-08-26/news/1994238168_1_howard-county-school-system-district-5">Endorsements in Council District 5</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111879426.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+26%2C+1994&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Endorsements+in+Council+District+5">August 26, 16A</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-06-20/news/1994171083_1_hantman-ecker-skills">Hantman to challenge executive</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111983305.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+20%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Hantman+to+challenge+executive">June 20, 1994, 1B</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-07-06/news/1994187128_1_susan-gray-ecker-primary-opponent">“Treasurer” tapped for Gray’s last-minute filing</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111979813.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+6%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Treasurer%27+tapped+for+Gray%27s+last-minute+filing">July 6, 1994, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>September 1994.  Susan Gray wins the right to face Charles Ecker in a convincing 53%&ndash;47% win over Democratic Central Committee chair Sue-Ellen Hantman.  C. Vernon Gray (no relation) continues his record of electoral success with a 2&ndash;1 primary victory over challenger Kathryn Mann (another Democratic Central Committee member) in District 2, with Democrat-turned-Republican Evelyn Tanner slated to face him in the general election.  In District 4 Paul Farragut’s annointed successor Mary Lorsung defeats Joseph Kraft, C. Vernon Gray’s favorite (and yet another former Democratic Central Committee member), while former executive Riaz Rana tops the poll in a 3-way race for the Republican nomination.  Somewhat surprised to be facing Susan Gray instead of Sue-Ellen Hantman, Ecker ponders whether to “go negative” in portraying Gray as a single-issue anti-growth candidate with no relevant experience (“If you handed Ms. Gray a [county] budget book, she would have no idea where to begin,” comments Ecker ally Darrel Drown), while Gray campaigns not only for herself but for a referendum to change the way the county does zoning.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>(James M. Coram and Lan Nguyen, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-09-14/news/1994257071_1_susan-gray-ecker-democratic-central-committee">Susan Gray carries Democratic vote for executive</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111961583.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+14%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram+and+Lan+Nguyen&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Susan+Gray+carries+Democratic+vote+for+executive+PRIMARY+ELECTION+RESULTS+1994">September 14, 1994, 1B</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-09-16/news/1994259092_1_ecker-county-council-gray">Ecker weighs strategy for surprise foe</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111961414.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+16%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Ecker+weighs+strategy+for+surprise+foe">September 16, 1994, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>October 1994.  County growth and what to do about it is once again on the agenda, as John Taylor (“I don’t think everybody has a God-given right to high-density zoning”) squares off against Charles Feaga over the proposed referendum allowing county resident to vote on zoning changes (“You never govern by majority on individual rights,” counters Feaga).  In other districts Republican challengers pick up the theme: District 4 hopeful Riaz Rana expresses support for the referendum while in District 2 Evelyn Tanner tries to tie C. Vernon Gray to developers and advocates splitting the zoning board from the county council in order to “solve a lot of ethical problems.”  Meanwhile some Columbia residents push for incorporation as a way to provide a “democratic government” and address perceived deficiencies of the Columbia Association,</p>
<p>(Erik Nelson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-10-23/news/1994296085_1_county-executive-county-rezoning-taylor">Growth passes crime as top issue in council race</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111942309.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+23%2C+1994&amp;author=Erik+Nelson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Growth+passes+crime+as+top+issue+in+council+race">October 23, 1994, 1B</a>; Adam Sachs, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-10-27/news/1994300081_1_columbia-association-incorporation-question-columbia-voters">Candidates hedge on incorporation of Columbia</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111941060.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+27%2C+1994&amp;author=Adam+Sachs&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Candidates+hedge+on+incorporation+of+Columbia+Most+say+questions+remain+unanswered+CAMPAIGN+1994">October 27, 1994, 1B</a>; Adam Sachs, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-10-28/news/1994301091_1_columbia-association-benefits-of-incorporating-symposiums">Columbia to ask experts, scholars for incorporation information</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111936418.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Oct+28%2C+1994&amp;author=Adam+Sachs&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Columbia+to+ask+experts%2C+scholars+for+incorporation+information">October 28, 1994, 3B</a>.)</p>
<p>November 1994.  Despite concerns raised by a Democratic edge in voter registration and a redistricting plan designed to favor Democrats, Howard County Republicans have their most successful election in modern Howard County history, as Democrats cross party lines to elect Charles Ecker as county executive (“I couldn’t have done it without them”) and put a Republican majority on the council, as Darrel Drown in District 1 and Dennis Schrader in District 3 join District 5 incumbent Charles Feaga.  C. Vernon Gray returns to the council, and Mary Lorsung’s victory keeps Columbia (and only Columbia) in Democratic hands.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>Even as she goes down to a crushing defeat Democratic county executive candidate Susan Gray exults in the overwhelming passage of a referendum to increase voter power over zoning decisions (“I’m ecstatic for the people of this county”), a vote that Charles Feaga decries as having “destroyed long-range planning in Howard County”. Whether the Republican council majority will mark a real change in county affairs remains to be seen, as the Republican council members proclaim their independence and willingness to put the people of Howard County first; as Dennis Schrader notes, “No one said to me, “Please run so we can have three Republicans on the council”.”</p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-11-04/news/1994308126_1_county-council-council-members-democratic-majority">Redistricting gives the edge to Democrats</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111901686.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+4%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redistricting+gives+the+edge+to+Democrats">November 4, 1994, 1B</a>; James M. Coram and Erik Nelson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-11-09/news/1994313093_1_zoning-process-ecker-zoning-amendment">Democrats cross to vote for incumbent</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111901657.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+9%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram+and+Erik+Nelson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrats+cross+to+vote+for+incumbent+GOP%27s+Ecker+easily+defeats+Gray+Zoning+amendment+approved%3B+Republicans+control+council+with+3+of+5+seats+ELECTION+1994">November 9, 1994, 1B</a>; Erik Nelson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-11-10/news/1994314033_1_county-executive-howard-county-question-b">Defeated candidate claims win</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111934486.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+10%2C+1994&amp;author=Erik+Nelson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Defeated+candidate+claims+win+ELECTION+1994">November 10, 1994, 1B</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-11-13/news/1994317171_1_council-chairman-council-members-democratic-council">Council has GOP majority but predicts little change</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111934861.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+13%2C+1994&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council+has+GOP+majority+but+predicts+little+change">November 13, 1994, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>The 1993 redistricting plan, based as it was on a Democratic proposal, was pitched as ensuring Democratic dominance of the county council for a decade, but instead became the basis for Republican dominance of county government.  In part 19 we’ll follow an attempt to change the way council redistricting is done and help avoid the stalemates and partisan disputes that marked the post-1990 redistricting effort.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Corrected the note about the effect of term limits on current council members.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="6b09bf46-001">Ken Stevens (ksteve8@verizon.net) - 2011-10-03 19:16</h4>
<p>It&rsquo;s not true that the three term limit for Council members would prohibit Courtney Watson from running for reelection to her current seat in 2014. She was first elected to that seat in 2006 and is now in her second term. There may be speculation about her running for County Executive instead, but it&rsquo;s not because she can&rsquo;t legally run for reelection to the Council. Otherwise, thanks for doing a good rundown on the 1994 local election.</p>
<h4 id="6b09bf46-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-10-03 22:18</h4>
<p>Ken, thanks very much for the correction. I was unfortunately led astray by the <a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/mdmanual/36loc/how/leg/html/msa14715.html">page on Courtney Watson</a> published by the Maryland State Archives, which lists her as having served on the council since 2002. I&rsquo;ve written them to correct the error, and have also corrected the note in this blog post.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Note that C. Vernon Gray was able to run again, despite already having served three terms on the council, because the term limits measure passed in 1992 applied only to council terms starting in 1990.  The three-term council term limit is still in place; <del>of the council members at the time of writing only Courtney Watson (D-District 1) will be prevented from running in 2014 (hence speculation about Watson running for county executive)</del> since all the current council members were elected in 2006, they could serve through 2018 if they decide to run for a third term and win.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>A personal note: When I first moved to Howard County Charlie Acquard was my next-door neighbor; however I came to the county too late to have the opportunity to vote for him&mdash;or against him, for that matter (just kidding, Charlie!).</p>
<p>On John Taylor, recall from <a href="/2011/09/17/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-14/">part 14</a> that as part of the council bargain over district lines C. Vernon Gray offered Charles Feaga the chance to move John Taylor’s Highland residence out of District 5; Feaga declined the offer.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The unofficial 1986 primary election results for the county executive and county council races were as follows (incumbents are marked with an asterisk):</p>
<ul>
<li>County executive (D): Susan Gray, 10,084 (53%); Sue-Ellen Hantman, 9,037 (47%).</li>
<li>District 2 (D): C. Vernon Gray (*), 2,962 (66%); Kathryn Mann, 1,535 (34%).</li>
<li>District 2 (R): Evelyn Tanner, 910 (52%); Gary Prestianni, 834 (48%).</li>
<li>District 4 (D): Mary Lorsung, 2,388 (52%); James Kraft, 2,167 (48%).</li>
<li>District 4 (R): Riaz Rana, 888 (47%); Mary Ann Wilkinson, 688 (36%); Robert O’Brien, 332 (17%).</li>
</ul>
<p>Charles Ecker was unopposed in the Republican primary for county executive, as were the Democratic and Republican candidates in Council Districts 1, 3, and 5.</p>
<p>(Election results are from “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-09-14/news/1994257072_1_unopposed-theodore-morse-laney">Howard County Primary Election Results 1994</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111962558.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+14%2C+1994&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=HOWARD+COUNTY+PRIMARY+ELECTION+RESULTS+1994">September 14, 1994, 3B</a>.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>The unofficial 1994 general election results for the county executive and county council races were as follows (incumbents are marked with an asterisk):</p>
<ul>
<li>County executive: Charles Ecker (R) (*), 44,749 (64%); Susan Gray (D), 24,765 (36%).</li>
<li>District 1: Darrel Drown (R) (*), 9,166 (67%); George Layman (D), 4,566 (33%).</li>
<li>District 2: C. Vernon Gray (D) (*), 7,356 (59%); Evelyn Tanner (R), 5,138 (41%).</li>
<li>District 3: Dennis Schrader (R), 5,853 (53%); Charles Acquard (D), 5,104 (47%).</li>
<li>District 4: Mary Lorsung (D), 7,524 (57%); Riaz Rana (R), 5,639 (43%).</li>
<li>District 5: Charles Feaga (R) (*), 11,341 (67%); John Taylor (D), 5,669 (33%).</li>
</ul>
<p>Turnout for the 1994 general election was very high for a non-presidential year, almost 70%; Democratic turnout was very slightly higher than Republican turnout.  Of those voting, the party breakdown was 53.5% Democratic, 37.5% Republican, and 11% independent (i.e., unaffiliated or registered with other parties).</p>
<p>(Election results are from “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1994-11-10/news/1994314020_1_votes-charles-c-precincts">Howard County Election 1994</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/111935047.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+10%2C+1994&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=HOWARD+COUNTY+ELECTION+1994">November 10, 1994, 5B</a>.  Turnout figures are from my blog post “<a href="/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">Howard County likely voters in the 2010 general election</a>” and sources referenced in that post.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 17</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/23/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-17/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 23 Sep 2011 01:53:21 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/23/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-17/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As we saw in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/19/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-16/&#34;&gt;part 16&lt;/a&gt; of this series, 1992 ended with the Howard County Council still divided over how to proceed with redistricting in the wake of the ruling by Judge Cornelius Sybert, Jr., that the council could not adopt a redistricting plan as a resolution.  After coming back from the end of the year vacation the council resumed its efforts to break the stalemate:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;January 1993.  The council again divides 3&amp;ndash;2, but with a twist this time: Republican council member Charles Feaga joins Democrats Shane Pendergrass and Paul Farragut to try to forge a compromise plan based on the original Democratic-sponsored plan approved by the council via a resolution (the one struck down by Judge Sybert) and a plan drawn up by Republican Michael Deets for the Columbia Association that was previously submitted to the council but never considered.  On the losing side are Republican Darrel Drown and Democrat C. Vernon Gray. Gray simply wants to address the concerns expressed by Republican county executive Charles Ecker in his veto of the Democratic plan, while Drown objects to considering the Columbia Association plan instead of the plan submitted by Ecker (“If you want to talk compromise, talk about the Republican map”) and fears his Ellicott City district being split up, with part being joined to Elkridge.  Feaga dismisses his concerns: “I did get the idea from the public testimony that Elkridge wanted to be linked to Ellicott City.”  Reading the tea leaves, the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt; predicts that Darrel Drown is “destined for the loss column” with Charles Feaga “willing to let Mr. Drown take the fall.”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As we saw in <a href="/2011/09/19/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-16/">part 16</a> of this series, 1992 ended with the Howard County Council still divided over how to proceed with redistricting in the wake of the ruling by Judge Cornelius Sybert, Jr., that the council could not adopt a redistricting plan as a resolution.  After coming back from the end of the year vacation the council resumed its efforts to break the stalemate:</p>
<p>January 1993.  The council again divides 3&ndash;2, but with a twist this time: Republican council member Charles Feaga joins Democrats Shane Pendergrass and Paul Farragut to try to forge a compromise plan based on the original Democratic-sponsored plan approved by the council via a resolution (the one struck down by Judge Sybert) and a plan drawn up by Republican Michael Deets for the Columbia Association that was previously submitted to the council but never considered.  On the losing side are Republican Darrel Drown and Democrat C. Vernon Gray. Gray simply wants to address the concerns expressed by Republican county executive Charles Ecker in his veto of the Democratic plan, while Drown objects to considering the Columbia Association plan instead of the plan submitted by Ecker (“If you want to talk compromise, talk about the Republican map”) and fears his Ellicott City district being split up, with part being joined to Elkridge.  Feaga dismisses his concerns: “I did get the idea from the public testimony that Elkridge wanted to be linked to Ellicott City.”  Reading the tea leaves, the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> predicts that Darrel Drown is “destined for the loss column” with Charles Feaga “willing to let Mr. Drown take the fall.”</p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-01-08/news/1993008104_1_columbia-association-map-drown">New effort planned on redistricting</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112396195.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jan+8%2C+1993&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=New+effort+planned+on+redistricting+Divided+council+seeks+compromise">January 8, 1993, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-01-14/news/1993014149_1_redistricting-war-dance-drown">Redistricting War Dance</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112396685.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jan+14%2C+1993&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redistricting+War+Dance+HOWARD+COUNTY">January 14, 1993, 16A</a>.)</p>
<p>February-May 1993.  As the council members continue private negotiations over redistricting (spearheaded by Shane Pendergrass and Darrel Drown), the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> assesses the overall accomplishments (or lack thereof) of the Howard County Council: “The most appropriate adjective to describe the council’s current state would be rudderless.  . . .  Divisiveness across party lines has resulted in strange alliances as council members have become increasingly consumed by individual, and often competing, interests.”</p>
<p>As the private negotiations drag on, Barbara Feaga, Board of Elections administrator (and wife of Charles Feaga), worries about preparations for the 1994 elections: “We are at a dead stop.  . . .  We can’t make any plans.”  The sticking point is making changes to the boundaries for Shane Pendergrass’s District 1; Darrel Drown comments, “We’re down to the last 500 voters.  The battleground is Shane’s district.  They want to win, and we want to win.”  Michael Deets for the Republicans and David Marker for the Democrats act as go-betweens shuttling proposed plans between Pendergrass and Drown, with both sites claiming the other is holding up the process.  Marker comments, “Waiting for the Republicans is like waiting for Godot,” while Deets counters, “The last I knew, we had come up with two different maps that we submitted to Shane.”<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>As June approaches (along with a June 30 budget deadline for expenses related to redistricting) the private negotiations fail, and each party once again plans to submit competing plans.  (“Every [Democratic] map I looked at looked gerrymandered,” claims Charles Feaga.)  Shane Pendergrass claims to have addressed the concerns expressed by Charles Ecker in his veto statement, but Darrel Drown begs to disagree: “This is not a compromise.  I assume it’s raw politics.  . . .  I thought we were narrowing it down and all of a sudden Shane called and said she was submitting a map [for a vote].”  Ecker refuses to tip his hand: “We’ll see what happens with the council.  Then I’ll do what I have to do.”</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-02-23/news/1993054168_1_county-council-council-members-howard-county">Mavericks on the Loose</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112416594.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Feb+23%2C+1993&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Mavericks+on+the+Loose+HOWARD+COUNTY">February 23, 1993, 2A</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-04-26/news/1993116086_1_pendergrass-council-members-county-council">Council can’t agree on districts</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112509493.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Apr+26%2C+1993&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council+can%27t+agree+on+districts+Election+board+waiting+for+plan">April 26, 1993, 1B</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-06-01/news/1993152085_1_pendergrass-compromise-drown">6 months of redistricting negotiations end with council still at loggerheads</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112442420.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+1%2C+1993&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=6+months+of+redistricting+negotiations+end+with+council+still+at+loggerheads">June 1, 1993, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>June 1993.  The council considers redistricting legislation but it takes a back seat to formulating a council response to the veto by Charles Ecker of a county-wide smoking ban.  Nevertheless the two parties seem close to a compromise that would see the Democratic plan adopted with minor changes.  Shane Pendergrass sees it as finding “common ground” but Darrel Drown vents (“I think we gave a whole lot, got a whole little”) while Charles Feaga sympathizes (“Darrel has every right in the world to be very, very upset”) but is ultimately resigned (“We’ve got more important things to do now.  Maybe it’s because I grew up in the county, but I feel I represent the county as a whole.  [District] boundaries mean very little.”)<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Feaga also dismisses concern by the League of Women Voters that the public isn’t being provided enough information about the compromise plan (“Most people don’t care about their district that much.  I don’t think you can create interest in a thing like this.”), with Shane Pendergrass claiming that the council was doing enough (“We have done our normal advertising, but we couldn’t notify 200,000 people personally”).  The <em>Baltimore Sun</em> sees hope of the council “trying to put an end to the petty, partisan way in which they have handled this affair.”</p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-06-21/news/1993172061_1_pendergrass-county-council-smoking">Redistricting, smoking on agenda of County Council hearing</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112470508.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+21%2C+1993&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redistricting%2C+smoking+on+agenda+of+County+Council+hearing">June 21, 1993, 3B</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-06-22/news/1993173094_1_pendergrass-district-lines-county-council">Delay urged for council redistricting</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112469693.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+22%2C+1993&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Delay+urged+for+council+redistricting+Civic+group+wants+voters+to+see+map">June 22, 1993, 1B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-06-24/news/1993175045_1_democrats-and-republicans-district-lines-district-1">Border Wars</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>,” <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112469657.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+24%2C+1993&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Border+Wars+HOWARD+COUNTY">June 24, 1993, 20A</a>.)</p>
<p>July 1993.  As the council moves to approve the compromise plan, Darrel Drown, whose district is more affected than any other, tries one last time to make a minor change (“the numbers are minimal&mdash;maybe 200 to 250 people”).  Although his amendment is approved (along with another minor change proposed by Charles Feaga), Drown votes against the final plan: “I think we’ve done too much shifting around so I think I’ll have to vote no to this.” However, Charles Feaga joins Paul Farragut, C. Vernon Gray, and Shane Pendergrass to approve the plan by a veto-proof 4&ndash;1 majority.  The plan goes to Charles Ecker for his signature, with Feaga and Farragut recommending that the council stop trying to draw up its own plans and create a “citizens committee” to make future redistricting recommendations.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-07-06/news/1993187018_1_drown-council-democrats-district-map">Howard’s long redistricting saga nears end</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112466792.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+6%2C+1993&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard%27s+long+redistricting+saga+nears+end+Last-gasp+change+sought+by+Drown+before+tonight%27s+vote">July 6, 1993, 3B</a>; Erik Nelson, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-07-07/news/1993188022_1_ellicott-western-columbia-elkridge">Redrawn districts approved</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/112465616.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+7%2C+1993&amp;author=Erik+Nelson&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redrawn+districts+approved+Vote+of+4-1+makes+plan+safe+from+veto">July 7, 1993, 1B</a>.)</p>
<p>Thus did the battle over redistricting end, after more than two years (and five blog posts!). In part 18 I’ll review how the new district lines affected the 1994 council elections.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Both Michael Deets and David Marker went on to represent their respective parties in subsequent redistricting efforts.  Marker currently serves on the <a href="http://cc.howardcountymd.gov/displayprimary.aspx?ID=6442458924">Howard County Redistricting Commission</a> drawing up new council district lines based on the 2010 census.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Not to digress, but the smoking ban issue is interesting both because of the more recent controversy over <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-07-11/health/bs-md-ho-smoking-ban-parks-20110711_1_smoking-indoors-ban-smoking-citizens-freedom-alliance">banning smoking in Howard County parks</a> and also because it apparently didn’t break down neatly on stereotypical party lines.  Although disagreeing with Howard County instituting a smoking ban ahead of the state as a whole, Charles Ecker ostensibly vetoed the ban previously adopted by the council because it wasn’t tough enough, including as it did an exemption for taverns and a “smoker’s rights” clause that forbade businesses from discriminating against workers who smoked off the job.  (Darrel Drown was Ecker’s ally in this.)  I should note though that some, including the bill’s sponsor C. Vernon Gray, suspected Ecker of ulterior motives; see the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> editorial “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1993-09-15/news/1993258175_1_smoke-ecker-howard-county">Chuck Ecker’s smoke screen</a>” for more background.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>James Coram of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, who had faithfully chronicled the redistricting saga since its beginning (and to whom I owe a great debt for his reporting), was apparently not present at its conclusion; the story for the final vote was filed by Erik Nelson.  I presume Coram was ill or had a schedule conflict, but certainly one could forgive him or anyone else for being exhausted by the whole ordeal and wanting to take a break.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 16</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/19/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-16/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 19 Sep 2011 23:06:23 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/19/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-16/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-15/&#34;&gt;Part 15&lt;/a&gt; of this series ended with the trial about to begin that would decide whether the Howard County Council had acted illegally in passing the Democratic-sponsored redistricting plan as a resolution rather than a bill.  Now it’s off to court we go:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;August 1992.  The last day of the month is the first day of the trial in the Circuit Court of Howard County, as counsel put forth their arguments in front of Judge Cornelius Sybert, Jr.  Representing the plaintiffs, Howard County Republicans David Maier and Louis Pope, are former county solicitor Thomas Lloyd and fellow former solicitor Richard J. Wilkinson, both Democrats.  As for the co-defendants, representing the Board of Elections is Charles Reese, and representing the County Council are former US Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti, former Georgetown Law professor Roger Titus, and their associate Sondra Block.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/2011/09/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-15/">Part 15</a> of this series ended with the trial about to begin that would decide whether the Howard County Council had acted illegally in passing the Democratic-sponsored redistricting plan as a resolution rather than a bill.  Now it’s off to court we go:</p>
<p>August 1992.  The last day of the month is the first day of the trial in the Circuit Court of Howard County, as counsel put forth their arguments in front of Judge Cornelius Sybert, Jr.  Representing the plaintiffs, Howard County Republicans David Maier and Louis Pope, are former county solicitor Thomas Lloyd and fellow former solicitor Richard J. Wilkinson, both Democrats.  As for the co-defendants, representing the Board of Elections is Charles Reese, and representing the County Council are former US Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti, former Georgetown Law professor Roger Titus, and their associate Sondra Block.</p>
<p>Thomas Lloyd contends that those who wrote the relevant county charter language intended that there be wide public input to redistricting and a deliberative process to specify the final district lines.  He contrasts the lengthy process (including public hearings) needed to enact council bills with the ability of the council to adopt resolutions on short notice with minimal public notice or input.  He further points out that, unlike bills, resolutions leave the public no avenues of recourse once adopted, since resolutions cannot be vetoed, challenged before put in effect, or made subject to a referendum.  The end result, Lloyd claims, is that citizens are being denied due process when it comes to a fundamental county government decision (i.e., council redistricting) that affects them.</p>
<p>Benjamin Civiletti responds in essence that redistricting is too important to be subjected to excessive challenges and delays: “Maryland does not want an impasse, and Howard County people don’t want an impasse.”  Roger Titus points out that the county charter doesn’t explicitly state that redistricting plans are subject to executive veto or to referendum, and notes the distinction between “establish” and “enact,” and between “adopted” and “enacted”: the charter uses the former words in association with redistricting, consistent with their being “established” and “adopted” via a resolution rather than “enacted” as a bill.  He also argues that the “temporary administrative” nature of resolutions is consistent with the fact that redistricting is not a permanent action but must be repeated at least every ten years.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-09-02/news/1992246005_1_districting-process-council-members-district-lines">Salvos begin in legal skirmish over council districts</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113539816.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+2%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Salvos+begin+in+legal+skirmish+over+council+districts">September 2, 1992, 2H</a>)</p>
<p>November 1992.  Judge Cornelius Sybert, Jr., renders his verdict: The council resolution establishing the new council district lines is “constitutionally defective and invalid” and the Board of Elections is enjoined from putting it into effect.  Judge Sybert bases his ruling on two key points: that a 10-year redistricting plan is not “temporary” and that it is not “administrative” in nature, and thus it is outside the scope of those actions that the council can take via a resolution.  C. Vernon Gray responds, “I respectfully disagree,” and points to the use of council resolutions for road closings and other matters not necessarily temporary in practice.  He also promises he’ll be back to court: “We just have to appeal it, I think.  . . .  We have to uphold the prerogative and the right of council.  The county executive has no role in a legislative function.” Charles Ecker pushes back: “As I interpret the charter, the county executive does have a role.  That’s the only reason I was glad to see it go to court.  It’s a good government issue&mdash;there have to be checks and balances.”</p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-11-10/news/1992315169_1_council-redistricting-sybert-county-council">Howard district plan is voided</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113520805.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+10%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard+district+plan+is+voided+Republicans+win+suit%3B+councilman+to+push+appeal">November 10, 1992, 1B</a>)</p>
<p>December 1992.  Council Democrats discuss what to do next, as a <em>Baltimore Sun</em> editorial points out the downside for Democrats in appealing the ruling: “An appeals court ruling supporting the Sybert verdict . . .  could weaken Democrats by forcing many decisions to be made by bills, which would then be subject to veto by the county executive.”  Democratic members Paul Farragut and Shane Pendergrass suggest buying some time by filing a Notice of Appeal, and then have the council decide whether to proceed or not, while fellow Democrat C. Vernon Gray seems intent on following the appeals process through to the bitter end: “This is clearly an issue that can only be resolved by the judiciary.”  Covering all the bases, Roger Titus sends the council a set of price quotes ($23,000 to $34,000 for a two-step appeals process and $13,000 to $19,000 for skipping a step and going straight to the top, with filing a one-sentence Notice of Appeal a relative bargain), while Republican council members Charles Feaga and Darrel Drown suggest dropping the whole appeal idea and instead appointing a bipartisan committee (equally divided between Republicans and Democrats) to draw up a compromise redistricting plan.</p>
<p>Shane Pendergrass and Paul Farragut send a memorandum to invite their Republican colleagues to sit down in a council work session to start to resolve the impasse, but Charles Feaga and Darrel Drown continue to promote the idea of an outside committee.  Feaga notes, “When management and unions don’t get along, they sometimes bring in someone else.  . . .  It’s the only reasonable thing to do at this point.” The legal maneuvering continues: Although county solicitor Barbara Cook previously agreed with Charles Ecker that redistricting required a bill (not a resolution), Democrats now want her to take over the appeal in order to save the county the expense of paying outside counsel in the form of Benjamin Civiletti and his colleagues Roger Titus and Sondra Block.  Meanwhile Republicans are filing their own appeal of Judge Sybert’s ruling allowing the council to be a party to the suit in the first place.</p>
<p>As the year ends, the two sides remain at loggerheads, and Shane Pendergrass observes, “I don’t know what we’re going to do.  I know we have to stop writing memos and start talking.”</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-12-01/news/1992336146_1_ecker-redistricting-plan-county-executive">Howard’s Flawed Redistricting</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113530549.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+1%2C+1992&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard%27s+Flawed+Redistricting">December 1, 1992, 12A</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-12-02/news/1992337215_1_titus-council-redistricting-court-of-appeals">Council, split over court’s invalidation of redistricting plan, initiates appeal</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113530705.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+2%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council%2C+split+over+court%27s+invalidation+of+redistricting+plan%2C+initiates+appeal">December 2, 1992, 5B</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-12-10/news/1992345090_1_council-redistricting-council-votes-boundaries">Solicitor asked to appeal redistricting</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113529451.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+10%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Solicitor+asked+to+appeal+redistricting">December 10, 1992, 7C</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-12-16/news/1992351037_1_council-redistricting-council-members-county-council">Redistricting compromise sought</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113525794.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+16%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redistricting+compromise+sought+GOP+County+Council+members+skeptical">December 16, 1992, 6B</a>.)</p>
<p>Winston Churchill is reported to have once said, “To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war.” Will the county council agree, as the redistricting effort stretches into a third calendar year?   Stayed tuned for the answer in part 17 in this series.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The lay reader may find it strange to describe something lasting for ten years as “temporary.”  However such generous interpretations are not unknown in legal circles; for example, the US Constitution’s description of copyrights and patents as being granted for “limited times” has been held to be consistent with copyright terms that last for well over a century (see, e.g., <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eldred_v._Ashcroft">Eldred v. Ashcroft</a>).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 15</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-15/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 18 Sep 2011 14:52:18 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-15/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As we concluded &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/17/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-14/&#34;&gt;part 14&lt;/a&gt; we’d seen a move by the Democratic council members (adopting their preferred redistricting plan as a bill), a counter-move by the Republican county executive (vetoing said bill), and a counter-counter move by the council Democrats (adopting the plan via a resolution instead).  Now comes the next move:&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;February 1992.  Howard County Republicans, in the persons of David Maier and Louis Pope, prepare to sue the Board of Elections for accepting the Democratic redistricting plan passed by the council as a resolution (after county executive Charles Ecker vetoed it when passed as a bill).  Past and present county solicitors disagree on the bill vs. resolution issue: Current solicitor Barbara Cook says a bill is required, while former solicitor Timothy Welsh had in 1985 opined that a resolution would suffice.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:2&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:2&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As we concluded <a href="/2011/09/17/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-14/">part 14</a> we’d seen a move by the Democratic council members (adopting their preferred redistricting plan as a bill), a counter-move by the Republican county executive (vetoing said bill), and a counter-counter move by the council Democrats (adopting the plan via a resolution instead).  Now comes the next move:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>February 1992.  Howard County Republicans, in the persons of David Maier and Louis Pope, prepare to sue the Board of Elections for accepting the Democratic redistricting plan passed by the council as a resolution (after county executive Charles Ecker vetoed it when passed as a bill).  Past and present county solicitors disagree on the bill vs. resolution issue: Current solicitor Barbara Cook says a bill is required, while former solicitor Timothy Welsh had in 1985 opined that a resolution would suffice.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Meanwhile Democratic council member Shane Pendergrass objects to Ecker aide (and county lobbyist) Gail Bates attending the press conference announcing the lawsuit: “You would think our Annapolis lobbyist would be in the capital trying to get help with the budget.  She seems to be making poor choices about how to spend her time.”  In response County GOP chair Carol Arscott points to the $7,600 the council spent getting legal advice from former US Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti, especially given that the suit by Maier and Pope is being handled on a pro bono basis by local zoning lawyer Thomas Lloyd (a Democrat, and also a former county solicitor).</p>
<p>Although the county is named as a co-defendant in the suit, Ecker makes it clear to Lloyd that he’s not going to mount a defense: “I’m going to side with [Lloyd].  I agree with the suit.  If the council wants to defend it, that’s up to them.”</p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-02-12/news/9213001378_1_council-boundaries-argument-county-solicitor">Republicans to sue election board over council boundaries</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113574834.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Feb+12%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Republicans+to+sue+election+board+over+council+boundaries+GOP+committee+seeks+compromise+on+new+districts">February 12, 1992, 5H</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-02-26/news/9213001907_1_council-redistricting-council-resolution-ecker">Ecker administration won’t contest redistricting lawsuit</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113572968.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Feb+26%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Ecker+administration+won%27t+contest+redistricting+lawsuit">February 26, 1992, 2H</a>.)</p>
<p>March-June 1992.  The Howard County Board of Elections decides to defend the lawsuit filed in Circuit Court by David Maier and Louis Pope, which alleges that the board’s acceptance of the new district lines from the council resolution was invalid.  Unlike the earlier 2&ndash;1 party-line vote, this decision is unanimous, with the board instructing its attorney, Charles Reese, to prepare its defense.  The county council gets its own lawyer, deciding in a by-now-familiar 3&ndash;2 party-line vote to pay Benjamin Civiletti $150 an hour to continue his legal arguments in support of the position that a council resolution is sufficient to adopt a council redistricting plan.</p>
<p>Charles Feaga, objecting to the expense, suggests local attorney (and state chair for the Clinton campaign) James Kraft as a possible pro bono alternative: “Jim Kraft spoke out for good, clear government at the redistricting hearings.  He might just want to take the case.” Shane Pendergrass notes that “It’s offensive to all but volunteer a county lawyer for free” without asking him, and pronounces herself “appalled” at the possible appearance of impropriety should Kraft do a favor for the council and then later appear before the council in its role as the zoning board.  Kraft himself agrees: “There could be the perception that this was a quid pro quo.”</p>
<p>Thomas Lloyd, attorney for Maier and Pope, also thinks the council made a mistake hiring Civiletti, contending in a Circuit Court motion that the council as a body doesn’t have the right to sue or be sued.  He notes, “If, personally, council members want to intervene, they’re welcome.  But they should pay their own fees.” Meanwhile Charles Ecker continues to refuse to mount a defense, leaving C. Vernon Gray to flag Ecker’s action as a possible violation of the county charter and to note that “If he’s not going to be defending suits, it may be a good idea to cut the budget since the county won’t be needing as much money.”</p>
<p>Judge Cornelius Sybert, Jr., considers whether or not the council can be a party to the lawsuit, which as originally filed named only the county and the Board of Elections.  Thomas Lloyd contends that the council cannot be sued since it is not a person, and that any past lawsuits in which the council was seemingly a defendant (such as one filed by county executive J. Hugh Nichols in 1978) were really lawsuits against council members as individuals.  Civiletti associate Roger Titus, representing the council (or, as Lloyd would presumably put it, the Democratic members of the council), argues that the suit challenges the council’s competency to act, and that it is in the public interest for the council to be a party to the suit.  He also threatens to appeal an unfavorable decision, aknowledging that any such appeal could delay redistricting “at least a year” and “really gum up the works.”  In the end the council gets its wish (as the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> puts it) as Sybert allows it to join the suit as a defendant.  The trial is scheduled to begin August 31.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-03-04/news/9213002119_1_suit-county-council-resolution">Board to defend suit</a>,” March 4, 1992, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113570472.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Mar+4%2C+1992&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Board+to+defend+suit">March 4, 1992, 5H</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-03-15/news/9213002612_1_civiletti-kraft-council-members">Council hires Civiletti for defense in redistricting suit</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113570332.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Mar+15%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council+hires+Civiletti+for+defense+in+redistricting+suit">March 15, 1992, 2H</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-05-10/news/1992131069_1_council-members-county-council-suit">Attorney objects to council’s hiring of lawyer</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113560459.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=May+10%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Attorney+objects+to+council%27s+hiring+of+lawyer+Members+must+personally+defend+suit%2C+he+says">May 10, 1992, 5H</a>; James M. Coram, “Judge weighing whether council can be party to suit,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113555167.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+7%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Judge+weighing+whether+council+can+be+party+to+suit">June 7, 1992, 15H</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1992-06-28/news/1992180242_1_district-lines-bill-county-council">Redistricting suit names County Council as defendant</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113550632.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jun+28%2C+1992&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Redistricting+suit+names+County+Council+as+defendant">June 28, 1992, 6H</a>)</p>
<p>Will Maier and Pope prevail?  Or will the council (or rather the Democratic members thereof) again get their wish?  Find out in the next episode, hopefully to appear soon so as not to prolong the suspense.  In the meantime I ask readers to please refrain from posting spoilers.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>As with the previous two posts, all events and quotes are from stories in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, and I’ve provided links both to the <em>Sun</em>’s ad-supported site and to the <em>Sun</em> archives.  (Note that for some reason the story “Judge weighing whether council can be party to suit” is not available on the ad-supported site.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>I tried searching for documents relating to this lawsuit using the <a href="http://casesearch.courts.state.md.us/inquiry/inquiry-index.jsp">Maryland Judiciary Case Search system</a>, but was not able to find anything; presumably the suit predated the period during which the Circuit Court of Howard County kept electronic records.  Does anyone know differently?</p>
<p>Also, one thing not immediately clear from the news articles is exactly how David Maier and Louis Pope had standing to file the suit.  Again, anyone with knowledge of this care to comment?  I’m guessing that they were prospective council candidates for the 1994 election who would be affected by the redirecting plan.  (As it turned out Maier was indeed a candidate in 1994, but for the state senate not the county council; <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2010/10/tsunami-that-never-was.html">he narrowly lost to Edward Kasemeyer</a>.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 14</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/17/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-14/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 17 Sep 2011 21:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/17/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-14/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As we saw in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-13/&#34;&gt;part 13&lt;/a&gt;, the fallout from the 1990 Howard County general election ensured that the path to creating new council district boundaries would not be a smooth one.  In this part the road grows rockier yet.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;November 1991.  The County Council considers some last minute changes and then prepares for a vote on the proposed redistricting plans.  In a marathon meeting the council initially approves a Democratic-sponsored redistricting bill by a 3&amp;ndash;2 party-line vote, then moves to reconsider the vote for the plan at the suggestion of C. Vernon Gray, and then after midnight approves the same bill by a 3&amp;ndash;2 margin again, as Democratic council members fail to secure at least one Republican vote to make it 4&amp;ndash;1 and stave off a possible veto by county executive Charles Ecker.  Republican council members complain that the plan is designed to cement Columbia’s dominance of Howard County politics: “[The plan] was written to ensure that three Democrats from Columbia would stay on the council for the next 10 years,” says Darrel Drown.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As we saw in <a href="/2011/09/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-13/">part 13</a>, the fallout from the 1990 Howard County general election ensured that the path to creating new council district boundaries would not be a smooth one.  In this part the road grows rockier yet.</p>
<p>November 1991.  The County Council considers some last minute changes and then prepares for a vote on the proposed redistricting plans.  In a marathon meeting the council initially approves a Democratic-sponsored redistricting bill by a 3&ndash;2 party-line vote, then moves to reconsider the vote for the plan at the suggestion of C. Vernon Gray, and then after midnight approves the same bill by a 3&ndash;2 margin again, as Democratic council members fail to secure at least one Republican vote to make it 4&ndash;1 and stave off a possible veto by county executive Charles Ecker.  Republican council members complain that the plan is designed to cement Columbia’s dominance of Howard County politics: “[The plan] was written to ensure that three Democrats from Columbia would stay on the council for the next 10 years,” says Darrel Drown.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>C. Vernon Gray responds that Republicans “never indicated an intention to negotiate”,and points out that in moving to reconsider the bill he had given Charles Feaga the opportunity to make an amendment removing from District 5 the Highland precinct of one of Feaga’s political rivals: “If we’d put John Taylor in the 4th District, this whole problem would have been solved.” Feaga, who had previously proposed just such an amendment but withdrew it prior to the first vote, notes that he wanted to retain 100% of his current district and complains about it being made even larger than it already was.  Gray professes to be “really disappointed” with Feaga and Drown and accuses them of acting in bad faith: “They came in with their own game plan and executed it.  They turned this into a circus.” Feaga responds, “[I] didn’t need to be scolded by a 15-minute sermon by Dr. Gray.  . . .  I thought he had a little more class than that,” and takes his case to the readers of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>.</p>
<p>Unlike former county executive J. Hugh Nichols, who declined to sign the first redistricting bill on the grounds that it was a council responsibility, Charles Ecker promises to take a more active role: “I will either sign the bill or veto it.  I won’t just let it sit there.”  Although Shane Pendergrass anticipates that Ecker is “thinking about peace-making and what’s good for the county” and will sign the bill, Ecker decides to veto the bill, complaining in a letter to C. Vernon Gray that it unnecessarily divides communities, has population differences between districts that are too great, and makes District 5 excessively large: “[The plan] may well be a legally supportable document, but it is not a fair document.”  Gray objects to this characterization (“I am dumbfounded for the executive to say it’s legal, but not fair”) and calls the veto “nothing more than a crass, selfish act for partisan political reasons.”</p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-11-03/news/9113011799_1_council-members-preservation-program-5th-district">Council to adopt district boundaries previewed in hearing</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113661166.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+3%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Council+to+adopt+district+boundaries+previewed+in+hearing">November 3, 1991, 9H</a>; Michael J. Clark, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-11-05/news/1991309030_1_west-columbia-east-columbia-map">Howard approves new council lines</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113659539.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+5%2C+1991&amp;author=Michael+J.+Clark&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard+approves+new+council+lines+Republicans+fault+district+map">November 5, 1991, 3D</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-11-06/news/9113011650_1_council-members-gray-drown">Democrats final winners of fiery redistricting war</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113659510.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+6%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrats+final+winners+of+fiery+redistricting+war">November 6, 1991, 2H</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-11-10/news/9113012053_1_ecker-redistricting-bill-district-lines">Ecker Promises To Take Action On Redistricting Bill</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113660757.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+10%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Ecker+promises+to+take+action+on+redistricting+bill">November 10, 1991, 2H</a>; Charles Feaga, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-11-27/news/9113012508_1_map-county-executive-howard-county">Defending redistricting</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113664368.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+27%2C+1991&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=%5BHeadline+Missing%5D+Defending+redistricting">November 27, 1991, 8H</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-11-17/news/9113012264_1_council-redistricting-ecker-veto">Ecker vetoes council’s redistricting plan</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113676680.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Nov+17%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Ecker+vetoes+council%27s+redistricting+plan%3B+Gray+livid">November 17, 1991, 4H</a>.)</p>
<p>December 1991.  Unable to muster a 4&ndash;1 majority to overturn Charles Ecker’s veto of the council redistricting bill, the Democratic council members try the alternative approach and approve the redistricting plan as a resolution.  Howard County GOP chair Carol Arscott objects to the strategy (“Since a resolution can not be vetoed or taken to referendum, it leaves too much power in the hands of three people”) and local Republicans contemplate a legal challenge to “set the record straight,” as Charles Feaga puts it, though Feaga is “hopeful that a compromise can be reached.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile the Howard County Board of Elections votes 2&ndash;1 along party lines to implement the plan previously approved by the council.  As Board of Elections president (and Democrat) Frank Lupashunski explains, given the ambiguity in the county charter as to how redistricting plans were to be approved, “We accepted the resolution because we are an appointed board and it is our duty not to question any official body, which in this case was the council.”</p>
<p>“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-12-04/news/1991338077_1_councilmanic-howard-county-county-executive">Howard Co. GOP may challenge map resolution</a>,” <em>Baltimore
Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113666558.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+4%2C+1991&amp;author=Michael+J.+Clark&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard+Co.+GOP+may+challenge+map+resolution">December 4, 1991, 2B</a>; “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-12-17/news/1991351016_1_councilmanic-districts-howard-county-district-lines">Board of Elections OK’s controversial Howard council map</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113670826.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Dec+17%2C+1991&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Board+of+Elections+OK%27s+controversial+Howard+council+map">December 17, 1991, 6B</a>.)</p>
<p>Thus ends the tumultuous year of 1991 (well, tumultuous as far as council redistricting was concerned).  In <a href="/2011/09/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-15/">part 15</a> we’ll find out whether the council and the county executive end up in court or not.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The plan being passed as a bill made it subject to a potential county executive veto per the county charter.  The council also had the option of passing the plan as a resolution, but declined to take that option given the legal uncertainty over whether the county charter required redistricting to be done via a bill instead.  Overriding Ecker’s veto would have required a 4&ndash;1 vote in favor of the bill.  Thus did the results of the election of 1990 come back to haunt Howard County Democrats, first by Elizabeth Bobo’s losing the county executive position to Charles Ecker and raising the possibility of a veto in the first place, and then by Angela Beltram’s losing her council seat to Darrel Drown and enabling Republican council members to sustain a veto.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 13</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-13/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 16 Sep 2011 23:47:01 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/09/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-13/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;The recent publishing of proposed revised Howard County Council district lines has pushed me to try to finish this series before the new lines are actually adopted.  So onward. . . .&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As noted in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/08/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-12/&#34;&gt;part 12&lt;/a&gt;, 1990 saw the Howard County political scene shaken up by the election of Republican Charles Ecker as County Executive, accompanied by Republican Darrel Drown being elected to County Council to join Charles Feaga and cut the Democratic majority from 4&amp;ndash;1 to 3&amp;ndash;2.  Since 1990 was also a census year, this led to one of the most interesting episodes in council redistricting history:&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The recent publishing of proposed revised Howard County Council district lines has pushed me to try to finish this series before the new lines are actually adopted.  So onward. . . .</p>
<p>As noted in <a href="/2011/08/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-12/">part 12</a>, 1990 saw the Howard County political scene shaken up by the election of Republican Charles Ecker as County Executive, accompanied by Republican Darrel Drown being elected to County Council to join Charles Feaga and cut the Democratic majority from 4&ndash;1 to 3&ndash;2.  Since 1990 was also a census year, this led to one of the most interesting episodes in council redistricting history:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>March 1991.  County executive Charles Ecker proposes appointing a committee to study the council redistricting issue.  Council chair C. Vernon Gray expresses surprise at Ecker’s “bold move or perhaps naivete” in getting involved in what he considers solely a County Council function.  Ecker disclaims any partisan motive in proposing the committee, a majority of which he would select (“I don’t check people’s registration [when making appointments]”), and says he’s just trying to “help and speed it along.”</p>
<p>(Michael J. Clark, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-03-16/news/1991075020_1_council-chairman-council-members-ecker">Ecker offers to help with redistricting, but council says no</a>,” <strong>Baltimore Sun</strong>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113625927.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Mar+16%2C+1991&amp;author=Michael+J.+Clark&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Ecker+offers+to+help+with+redistricting%2C+but+council+says+no+Democrats+in+Howard+refuse+Republican+aid">March 16, 1991, 14B</a>.)</p>
<p>May 1991.  Charles Ecker proposes his own alternative redistricting plan to the County Council.  The major proposed change is to Shane Pendergrass’s district (District 1 in southeastern Howard), which would lose several Democratic-leaning precincts in Columbia and pick up two precincts north of Route 175 that previously voted for Republican council member Darrel Drown.  Pendergrass protests against what she considers a “Columbia-ectomy.”  C. Vernon Gray comments, “We allowed [Ecker] to have some input and he has given it to us.” Charles Feaga concedes the plan is “just a beginning.”</p>
<p>(James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-05-26/news/9113005919_1_ecker-district-lines-5th-district">Ecker Plan Could Give GOP Edge</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113636608.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=May+26%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Ecker+plan+could+give+GOP+edge+Redistricting+gets+cool+reception+from+council">May 26, 1991, 1H</a>.)</p>
<p>July 1991.  The County Council begins work on redistricting with a focus on Shane Pendergrass’s district, which needs to be reduced in size due to relatively strong population growth.  Republicans propose a plan that expands District 5 (western Howard) to touch all surrounding counties, and make changes to District 3 (east Columbia) justified based on preserving minority rights.  “If Howard County’s map is taken to court for any reason, this is the map the court will draw” comments Carol Arscott, head of the Howard County Republican Central Committee, and notes that creating a minority district as part of the plan was “of primary importance.”  C. Vernon Gray responds “I’m a little surprised that the No. 1 priority for Republicans is blacks, Asians and Hispanics.”</p>
<p>This is the second Republican-created plan (the first being the Ecker plan); Shane Pendergrass refers to the two plans as “outrageous” and “ridiculous.”  The hearing is sparsely attended (by 22 people, including council staff); seven people testify including Glenelg High School sophomore Brian Meshkin, who shows up to present his own independently-created plan and receives praise from council members.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-07-10/news/9113007180_1_owen-brown-3rd-district-1st-district">Battle Over County Redistricting To Focus On 1st District</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113642636.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+10%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Battle+over+county+redistricting+to+focus+on+1st+District+Changing+the+map+--+and+political+landscape%3F">July 10, 1991, 2H</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-07-14/news/9113007352_1_arscott-3rd-district-map">Battle Lines Drawn</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113644393.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Jul+14%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Battle+lines+drawn+Democrats+see+red+over+redistricting">July 14, 1991, 1H</a>.)</p>
<p>August 1991.  By a 3&ndash;2 party line vote the Howard County Council gives preliminary approval to hiring former US Attorney General Benjamin Civiletti (at a discounted rate of $150 per hour and total fee cap of $25,000) to provide legal advice on County Council redistricting. Democratic council members also present a plan of their own; according to Lloyd Knowles, chair of the subcommittee that created the plan, its goal is to “provide a reasonable basis for Democratic districts” and “not . . . allow the Republicans to turn the county over to developers.”</p>
<p>Council Republicans characterize the Democratic plan as a “bad joke” (Charles Feaga) and a “blatantly partisan scheme” (Darrel Drown) and decry the move to hire Civiletti: “We could have sat down and reasoned rationally without spending 25K, but that is not something [the Democrats] are willing to do,” says Drown.  Meanwhile former GOP House of Delegates candidate Arthur Reynolds criticizes his party’s proposal and accuses his fellow Republicans of acting like Democrats in supporting a “racial spoils system” and exhibiting “shameless opportunism” in “using the [Voting Rights Act] as a transparent vehicle to engage in GOP-inspired gerrymandering.”</p>
<p>(Michael J. Clark, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-08-25/news/1991237063_1_civiletti-county-executive-howard-county">Howard council moves toward hiring Civiletti</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113684103.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+25%2C+1991&amp;author=Michael+J.+Clark&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard+council+moves+toward+hiring+Civiletti">August 25, 1991, 3C</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-09-01/news/9113009224_1_1st-district-precincts-2nd-district">GOP scoffs at Democrats’ “outrageous” redistricting plan</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113651486.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+1%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=GOP+scoffs+at+Democrats%27+%60outrageous%27+redistricting+plan">September 1, 1991, 4H</a>; Arthur Reynolds, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-08-25/news/9113008860_1_leadership-howard-county-columbia-foundation-deja-vu/2">Redistricting follies</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113684518.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Aug+25%2C+1991&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=%5BHeadline+Missing%5D+Thanks+from+Leadership">August 25, 1991, 14H</a>.)</p>
<p>September 1991.  C. Vernon Gray unveils a Democratic redistricting proposal and wins support from other Democratic council members. Darrel Drown urges Charles Ecker to “veto it and throw it into the trash can,” as Ecker disagrees with Democratic council members and their lawyer Benjamin Civiletti over whether he in fact has veto power over the plan.  (“I have veto power, and if I don’t like it, I will veto it,” Ecker vows.)  Meanwhile Charles Feaga speculates that Shane Pendergrass cut a deal with the other two Democratic council members: “All three are considering a run for county executive, and you wonder if Shane agreed to step aside in order to get the district she wanted.”</p>
<p>The Demoratic plan also renumbers the districts, with the proposed new districts as follows:<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<ul>
<li>District 1.  Ellicott City and Elkridge.</li>
<li>District 2.  East Columbia, including the villages of Oakland Mills and Long Reach as well as nearby areas.</li>
<li>District 3.  The rest of Columbia east of US 29, including the villages of Owen Brown and King’s Contrivance, as well as Savage and North Laurel.</li>
<li>District 4.  West Columbia and nearby areas.</li>
<li>District 5.  Western Howard.</li>
</ul>
<p>(Michael J. Clark, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-09-24/news/1991267013_1_5th-district-3rd-district-ellicott">Democrats back Howard council redistricting</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113681248.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+24%2C+1991&amp;author=Michael+J.+Clark&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Democrats+back+Howard+council+redistricting">September 24, 1991, 3B</a>; James M. Coram, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-09-25/news/9113009990_1_pendergrass-precincts-shane">Feaga Says Redistricting Is Tailor-made For Democrats</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113681375.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+25%2C+1991&amp;author=James+M.+Coram&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Feaga+says+redistricting+is+tailor-made+for+Democrats+Republican+criticizes+plan%2C+says+deal+was+cut+to+protect+Pendergrass">September 25, 1991, 2H</a>; Michael J. Clark, “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/1991-09-27/news/1991270016_1_5th-district-district-lines-3rd-district">Howard executive, councilman squabble over districts plan</a>,” <em>Baltimore Sun</em>, <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/113680358.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;type=current&amp;date=Sep+27%2C+1991&amp;author=Michael+J.+Clark&amp;pub=The+Sun&amp;desc=Howard+executive%2C+councilman+squabble+over+districts+plan+Ecker%2C+threatening+veto%2C+faults+extent+of+changes">September 27, 1991, 14E</a>.)</p>
<p>In part 14 of the series the Democratic members of the County Council are challenged by the new political composition of county government, and scramble to find a solution.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Beginning with this post I resume using the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> as my only reference for events and quotes, since only the <em>Sun</em> has online archives for the period in question.  Starting in 1990 <em>Sun</em> articles are available both in the official <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/advancedsearch.html"><em>Sun</em> archives</a> (which have the advantage of being easily searchable) and on a separate <a href="http://http://articles.baltimoresun.com/">ad-supported site</a> (which has the advantage of being free).  For the convenience of readers I’ve linked <em>Sun</em> article titles to the free site but also included a separate link from the article date and page number to the archives, for those who already have an archive subscription or don’t mind paying extra to avoid advertisements.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The <em>Sun</em> article doesn’t describe the rationale for renumbering the districts; perhaps someone familiar with this round of redistricting can comment?  In any case this renumbering was eventually adopted and the new district numbers continue to be used up to the present day.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 12</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/08/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-12/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 16 Aug 2011 23:49:16 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/08/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-12/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/08/07/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-11/&#34;&gt;Part 11&lt;/a&gt; of this series took us through the 1990 party primaries
for the second election year featuring county council districts; in this part we see how the results of the 1990 general election compare to those of 1986.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;October 1990.  Now that the primaries are over the candidates position themselves for the general election.  Republican Charles Ecker faces an uphill fight in his campaign for county executive, at least on the money front: Reports out in late September for fundraising through August 31 show him trailing Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Bobo in terms of attracting major donors (contributing $200 or more), raising under $6K from thirteen major donors versus Bobo’s total of over $60K from 184 major donors.  Undaunted, Ecker channels Ronald Reagan as he asks Howard County voters “Are you better off now than you were four years ago” and accuses Bobo of “killing Route 100.”  Bobo in turns accuses Ecker of hypocrisy on the matter of county spending: “He asked me to spend the money [when Ecker was deputy superintendent of schools].  . . .  Has he changed his mind?”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/2011/08/07/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-11/">Part 11</a> of this series took us through the 1990 party primaries
for the second election year featuring county council districts; in this part we see how the results of the 1990 general election compare to those of 1986.</p>
<p>October 1990.  Now that the primaries are over the candidates position themselves for the general election.  Republican Charles Ecker faces an uphill fight in his campaign for county executive, at least on the money front: Reports out in late September for fundraising through August 31 show him trailing Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Bobo in terms of attracting major donors (contributing $200 or more), raising under $6K from thirteen major donors versus Bobo’s total of over $60K from 184 major donors.  Undaunted, Ecker channels Ronald Reagan as he asks Howard County voters “Are you better off now than you were four years ago” and accuses Bobo of “killing Route 100.”  Bobo in turns accuses Ecker of hypocrisy on the matter of county spending: “He asked me to spend the money [when Ecker was deputy superintendent of schools].  . . .  Has he changed his mind?”</p>
<p>In the county council race in District 1 (Elkridge, Savage, North Laurel, and southeast Columbia), Republican challenger candidate Dennis Schrader accuses the county government of being “socialistic” and “tinkering in the marketplace” when it comes to planning for county growth, and notes that incumbent Shane Pendergrass’s support for a growth cap means “There’s going to be a lot of kids [who] don’t have toys at Christmas.”</p>
<p>In District 2 (Ellicott City), Democratic incumbent Angela Beltram finds voters know what they care about (whether or not Old Frederick Road and Route 108 get connected via Gray Rock Drive) and less about who’s running for council: a voter asks “Who’s that running against you,” a voter asks, and Beltram responds jokingly, “I’m not going to tell you.” Challenger Darrel Drown hopes to fix that problem by pounding the pavement with campaign literature to hand out and a voice recorder with which to record voters’ names, addresses, party affiliations, and concerns, despite the danger of being mistaken for a “Jehovah’s Witness or a door-to-door salesperson.”</p>
<p>In a battle between newly-minted politicians in District 4 (west Columbia), recently-appointed council member Paul Farragut and his Republican challenger, recently-elected CA board member Michael Deets, spar over how closely Farragut is tied to Elizabeth Bobo (“I wasn’t [Bobo’s] first choice [for county council],” points out Farragut) and find that even though planning decisions have already been made for Columbia, voters in their district are still concerned about growth elsewhere in the county: “They have to fight people coming down [Routes] 29 and 32,” Deets notes.</p>
<p>(“Big money favors Bobo,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, September 27, 1990, p. 31; “Ecker, Bobo trade a few jabs,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, October 4, 1990, p. 34; “Growth is focus of race,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, October 18, 1990, p. 30; “With nothing for granted, Beltram keeps on running,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, October 18, 1990, p. 32; “Drown looks past 1986 defeat,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, October 18, 1990, p. 33; “Growth divides contenders,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, October 25, 1990, p. 35.)</p>
<p>November 1990.  As the county executive campaign enters its final days, Elizabeth Bobo maintains her lead in fundraising over Charles Ecker (raising almost $150,000 by October 21 compared to less than $67,000 for Ecker).  However Bobo’s money proves for naught as Ecker rides a wave of anti-incumbent sentiment (says one voter, “I have a strong desire to vote anyone in office, out of office, except for [governor William Donald Schaefer]”) to a narrow victory over Bobo to become Howard County Executive.  Darrel Drown rides the same wave to a convincing 58%&ndash;42% win over Angela Beltram, and Shane Pendergrass barely escapes an upset by Dennis Schrader.  “This is beyond my wildest dreams,” exults county Republican chair Carol Arscott, as Republicans also triumph in races for two House of Delegate seats, a state senate seat, and the Clerk of the Circuit Court position.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Democrats win a 3&ndash;2 majority on the Howard County Council, as C. Vernon Gray runs unopposed, Paul Farragut wins by a comfortable margin, and Shane Pendergrass barely defeats Dennis Schrader.  On the Republican side incumbent council member Charles Feaga wins easily and Darrel Drown defeats Democratic incumbent Angela Beltram.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>The election highlights the continued divisions between Columbia and the rest of Howard County: Bobo won in Columbia precincts by an overall 58%&ndash;42% margin, but lost in the rest of the county by margins of 20% or more, with Ecker winning 2&ndash;1 in western Howard.  Part of the Republican strategy was to minimize the potential impact of Columbia’s voters by not running anyone against C. Vernon Gray: “Why turn those voters loose in his district?” comments Charles Feaga, who goes on to note “I’ve gotten along very, very well with Vernon.”<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>(“Democratic incumbents fall to Ecker, Drown, and McCabe,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, November 8, 1990, p. 26; “The county’s divided loyalties,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, November 8, 1990, p. 28; “GOP reaps victory,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, November 15, 1990, p. 32.)</p>
<p>December 1990.  As the Democratic county council majority gets cut from 4&ndash;1 to 3&ndash;2, speculation is rampant about how the changed composition of the council will affect its relationship with the county executive and its position on growth-related issues, with both proponents and opponents of growth seeing cause for optimism.  Given C. Vernon Gray’s frequent clashes with Elizabeth Bobo and his often siding with Charles Feaga on issues, Angela Beltram makes a prediction: “I think [the next council chair] is going to be Vernon.” That prediction is borne out as the council unanimously elects Gray as chair, in a vote preceded by consultation among the remaining Democrats on the council, who then informed Charles Feaga and Darrel Drown of their choice.</p>
<p>(“Gray seen anchoring council,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, November 22, 1990; “Gray elected to chair county council,” <em>Columbia Flier</em>, December 6, 1990, p. 25.)</p>
<p>In part 13 of this series we’ll see how the new political landscape translated into controversy and contention between the county council and the county executive over the next round of council redistricting.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="4035ba84-002"><a href="http://www.hocorising.com" title="hocorising@gmail.com">HoCoRising</a> - 2011-08-17 01:11</h4>
<p>Nicely done. Great post.</p>
<h4 id="4035ba84-003">Michael Davis (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2011-08-17 10:43</h4>
<p>The most polarizing issue during the 1990 campaign was Bobo&rsquo;s inability to understand growth issues. She was a reasonably popular County Executive through 1988, but starting in 1989, with her poorly conceived growth moratorium, the possibility of 20-acre zoning in the West, and an &ldquo;inadequate&rdquo; public facilities ordinace, among other things, she managed to unite the development and residents&rsquo; communities in opposition to her land use policies. Add to these failures her heavy-handed fundraising techniques and &ldquo;circle the wagons&rdquo; mentality, she created a true recipe for failure in her reelection efforts. Yet, with all of these failures, and more, the election did go down to the last minutes of the campaign. Chuck Ecker and his campaign worked very hard up until the very end, but had little hope until the last week or two. Then, everything turned. It was marvelous to behold! By the way, during the campaign, the Bobo Administration conceded that there was a $3 million shortfall in the budget and certain costs were frozen. It was amazing walking in just a couple of days after the election and learning that shortfall was really $20 million! Howard County was very lucky to have Chuck Ecker as County Executive to deal with that shortfall and the coming recession. Very lucky indeed.</p>
<h4 id="4035ba84-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-08-17 16:09</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by to leave a comment! It&rsquo;s clear from reading the old stories that there was a lot of discontent with Liz Bobo as county executive, and based on my relatively superficial reading it appears that the council candidates who did less well (Angie Beltram and Shane Pendergrass) were the ones who seemed to be perceived as more tied to Bobo than those like Vernon Gray who had an easier time of it. (You or other more familiar with the politics of that era should please feel free to correct me.) I&rsquo;ll echo your assessment of the effectiveness of Ecker&rsquo;s campaign. (In the last post I expressed my admiration of his campaign ads.) As I implied in footnote 3 of this post it seems that Howard County Republicans of that era were thinking strategically in terms of what it took to overcome their disadvantage in registration, run an effective all-county effort, and field candidates that could appeal beyond the party base.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The Clerk of the Circuit Court position was won by Margaret Rappaport in her first run as a Republican.  As noted in a <a href="/2011/01/18/back-to-the-future-in-howard-county-politics-part-1/">previous post</a>, in 1986 she was elected a Judge of the Orphans’ Court running as a Democrat.  Rappaport has now served as Clerk for over twenty years, as did her predecessor in the position.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The unofficial 1990 general election results for the county executive and county council races were as follows (incumbents are marked with an asterisk):</p>
<ul>
<li>County executive: Charles Ecker (R), 25,637 (50.2%); Elizabeth Bobo (D) (*), 25,393 (49.7%).</li>
<li>District 1: Shane Pendergrass (D) (*), 5,313 (51.3%); Dennis Schrader (R), 5,028 (48.6%).</li>
<li>District 2: Darrel Drown (R), 7,633 (57.6%); Angela Beltram (D) (*), 5,610 (42.3%).</li>
<li>District 3: C. Vernon Gray (D) (*), 5,694 (unopposed).</li>
<li>District 4: Paul Farragut (D) (*), 5,623 (66.2%); Michael Deets (R), 2,863 (33.7%).</li>
<li>District 5: Charles Feaga (R) (*), 6,429 (62.2%); Susan Scheidt (D), 3,906 (37.7%).</li>
</ul>
<p>(Results are from the <em>Columbia Flier</em> story “Unofficial election summary,” November 8, 1990, p. 26.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>Compare this strategy to that in the 2010 general election, when Republican Reginald Avery <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-09-27/news/bs-md-ho-avery-enters-20100927_1_oakland-mills-resident-east-columbia-s-district-democrat-calvin-ball">stepped in at the last minute</a> to run against popular Council District 2 incumbent Calvin Ball (the successor to Gray), only to lose by a 2&ndash;1 margin.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A personal milestone in math blogging</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/08/11/a-personal-milestone-in-math-blogging/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 11 Aug 2011 22:08:53 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/08/11/a-personal-milestone-in-math-blogging/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;A continuation of my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/&#34;&gt;history of Howard County Council redistricting series&lt;/a&gt; is coming soon (I promise!  really!), but after an evening at the &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocoblogs-baltsun.eventbrite.com/&#34;&gt;HoCo Blogtail party&lt;/a&gt; I’m not in any shape to do any serious historical blogging (even one blogtail will do that to you).  I thought I’d use the opportunity instead to plug my other blog &lt;a href=&#34;http://math.hecker.org/&#34;&gt;math.hecker.org&lt;/a&gt;, on which I publish worked out exercises from my attempt to relearn various branches of mathematics.  I’m starting with &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_algebra&#34;&gt;linear algebra&lt;/a&gt;, a field of study that isn’t as well known as calculus but in some ways is even more important as a basis for a lot of real-life applications.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A continuation of my <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">history of Howard County Council redistricting series</a> is coming soon (I promise!  really!), but after an evening at the <a href="http://hocoblogs-baltsun.eventbrite.com/">HoCo Blogtail party</a> I’m not in any shape to do any serious historical blogging (even one blogtail will do that to you).  I thought I’d use the opportunity instead to plug my other blog <a href="http://math.hecker.org/">math.hecker.org</a>, on which I publish worked out exercises from my attempt to relearn various branches of mathematics.  I’m starting with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_algebra">linear algebra</a>, a field of study that isn’t as well known as calculus but in some ways is even more important as a basis for a lot of real-life applications.</p>
<p>I recently worked my way through all the exercises of the first chapter of the linear algebra text I’m using, as noted in a <a href="http://math.hecker.org/2011/08/11/completing-chapter-1-of-linear-algebra-and-its-applications/">celebratory post</a> yesterday.  At the rate I’m going I’ll be a long time in finishing it, but since this is a personal hobby there’s no great rush.  My math blog is even more niche-y than this blog, if that’s possible; a typical post gets 10-15 views at most.  So why should you care?</p>
<p>Believe it or not, there are some points of connection with the non-math stuff I blog about, including some Howard County points of connection.  First, Maryland in general, and I presume Howard County in particular, is actually fairly well-populated with mathematicians as these things go.  According to the relevant <a href="http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes152021.htm">Bureau of Labor Statistics data</a>, there are almost three thousand people in the US in the job category “mathematician” (defined as those who “[conduct] research in fundamental mathematics or in application of mathematical techniques to science, management, and other fields”), of which over a third work for the Federal government.</p>
<p>What are these mathematicians doing?  Well, a lot of them work for the National Security Agency.  <a href="http://www.nsa.gov/careers/career_fields/mathematics.shtml">NSA aggressively recruits mathematicians</a> and traditionally it was one of the major career possibilities for mathematicians not going into academia.  (Those who’ve seen the movie <a href="http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0119217/">Good Will Hunting</a> may remember the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fJqWHDuOpc4">rather self-righteous rant</a> delivered by Matt Damon’s character when an NSA recruiter comes to call.)  More recently NSA has been in serious competition with private industry as a career choice for newly-minted math PhDs, although (as noted in a <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_04/b3968007.htm"><em>BusinessWeek</em> story</a> on the subject),</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[In addition to patriotism] there’s also a lifestyle lure.  NSA officials say a good number of mathematicians prefer a suburban Maryland life and a government job with predictable hours to the more frantic pace and market gyrations of an Internet company.  This is especially true of women.  In general, they’re underrepresented in mathematics, but far less so at the NSA.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Ah, that “suburban Maryland life”&mdash;we know <a href="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2010/snapshots/PL2419125.html">what they’re talking about</a>.  The upshot is that Maryland has the <a href="http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes152021.htm#st">highest concentration of mathematicians</a> of any state in the US (over seven times the national average), with the highest average wage for mathematicians as well.</p>
<p>A couple of other points of connection: First, I’m both taking advantage of and contributing to the trend of people using the Internet for online learning as an alternative to traditional formal education.  Interested in learning about linear algebra directly from the <a href="http://www-math.mit.edu/~gs/">MIT professor</a> who wrote the textbook I’m using?  No problem, here are <a href="http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-06-linear-algebra-spring-2010/index.htm">his lectures and other course material</a> online for all to enjoy.  Need to start your online math education at a slightly lower level?  Check out the <a href="http://www.khanacademy.org/#browse">videos</a> and other material published by the <a href="http://www.khanacademy.org/about?k">Khan Academy</a>, starting with <a href="http://www.khanacademy.org/video/basic-addition?playlist=Arithmetic">basic addition</a>.  This trend might even come to Howard County public schools some day; Khan Academy is doing a <a href="http://utopianist.com/2011/03/khan-academy-pilot-program-a-success-in-california/">pilot with the Los Altos school district</a> to explore ways to blend online and in-classroom learning.  Would this be worth doing in Howard County?  I don’t know, but I’m sure it would be a more interesting and productive conversation than talking about the latest <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-06-09/news/bs-md-ho-dyer-censure-20110609_1_allen-dyer-board-member-ellen-flynn-giles">Allen Dyer happenings</a>.</p>
<p>Finally, doing mathematics has taught me a personal lesson when it comes to discussing other areas of life, politics in particular.  Some people try to take the methods of mathematics and the hard sciences and wholeheartedly apply them elsewhere; for example, a lot of libertarians seem to think that we can deduce from first principles the correct answer to any political question.  I think this is misguided.  The lesson I take away from doing my math homework is that even in a formal mathematical exercise it’s not trivial at all to rigorously prove a conclusion; in doing my posts I’ve several times found places where I’ve missed key points, assumed things which needed to be proved, and otherwise made a hash of my argument.  All the more difficult to be sure of one’s reasoning and conclusions when it comes to areas like politics where there’s disagreement and dispute even about the basic values that we should hold and our basic premises about how the world works.  More than a little modesty in one’s pronouncements seems to be called for.</p>
<p>And with that it’s back to non-math blogging for this particular blog.  But if you ever need help with your linear algebra homework you now know <a href="http://math.hecker.org/">where to turn</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 11</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/08/07/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-11/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2011 23:13:01 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/08/07/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-11/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;After a long hiatus, I’m happy to announce that I’m resuming my series on the history of County Council redistricting in Howard County (which is also, as in this post, somewhat of a potted history of Howard County politics in the modern era).  I hope to finish the series in a timely manner, and possibly do a couple of extra things in this general line.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you recall, at the conclusion of &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-10/&#34;&gt;part 10&lt;/a&gt; Howard County had just completed its first set of council elections based on the new district lines, with the election producing a 4&amp;ndash;1 Democratic majority on the council along with a Democratic count executive.  (The electoral results were very similar to those of the 2010 elections&amp;mdash;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/18/back-to-the-future-in-howard-county-politics-part-1/&#34;&gt;almost scarily so&lt;/a&gt;, in fact.)  We now jump forward to 1990 and the second set of county elections held under the district boundaries adopted in 1986.  Because 1990 was a census year, the 1990 elections were also the last set of elections under those district boundaries, with boundaries to be redrawn after the election (and hence the importance of that election, as we shall see).&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a long hiatus, I’m happy to announce that I’m resuming my series on the history of County Council redistricting in Howard County (which is also, as in this post, somewhat of a potted history of Howard County politics in the modern era).  I hope to finish the series in a timely manner, and possibly do a couple of extra things in this general line.</p>
<p>If you recall, at the conclusion of <a href="/2011/01/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-10/">part 10</a> Howard County had just completed its first set of council elections based on the new district lines, with the election producing a 4&ndash;1 Democratic majority on the council along with a Democratic count executive.  (The electoral results were very similar to those of the 2010 elections&mdash;<a href="/2011/01/18/back-to-the-future-in-howard-county-politics-part-1/">almost scarily so</a>, in fact.)  We now jump forward to 1990 and the second set of county elections held under the district boundaries adopted in 1986.  Because 1990 was a census year, the 1990 elections were also the last set of elections under those district boundaries, with boundaries to be redrawn after the election (and hence the importance of that election, as we shall see).<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>January&ndash;May 1990.  1990 starts out with that perennial Howard County topic of discussion, county development, as county executive Elizabeth Bobo unveils a proposed General Plan touted as having “something for everyone.”  GOP county executive candidate Charles Ecker attacks the proposed plan, including its proposal for a central-county greenbelt, claiming that the plan “preserves farmland at the expense of farming”. Meanwhile Bobo angers some of her fellow Democrats, most notably those planning to challenge for state senate seats, by forming a political slate with incumbent senators Edward Kasemeyer and Thomas Yeager. Republican Central Committee chair Carol Arscott sees it as an attempt to “circle the wagons” and claims “It’s kind of a backhanded compliment to the Republican Party.  They’re taking us seriously.” Bobo holds a meeting with county Democratic office-holders and Central Committee members to discuss her actions, but delegate (and prospective senate candidate) Virginia Thomas notes “I don’t think it helped much in terms of cooling people down.” Meanwhile Howard County Republicans get dragged into a dispute over allegedly deceptive fundraising by the previous state party chair.</p>
<p>(“Bobo promises something for everyone,” January 4, 1990, p. 22; “Ecker lambastes proposed General Plan,” January 18, 1990, p. 33; “Bobo slate provokes anger,” January 18, 1990, p. 33; “Democrats meet with Bobo,” January 25, 1990, p. 33; “GOP factions feud over funds,” January 25, 1990, p. 36.)</p>
<p>More candidates in the upcoming elections emerge.  Democrat Thomas Hartman plans to run for county executive against Elizabeth Bobo on a pro-growth platform, even while a group of developers pledge support for Bobo despite their disagreement with the growth cap she promoted. However Hartman acknowledges he has an uphill battle in the face of a June 1989 poll showing that only 10% of voters would vote to replace Bobo.  On the GOP side Dennis Schrader announces his intent to run against Democratic incumbent Shane Pendergrass in council district 1 (Elkridge, Savage, North Laurel, and southeast Columbia), as Pendergrass also faces a primary challenge from slow-growth activist William Smith.  Republican Darrel Drown tries a rematch against Democratic incumbent Angela Beltram in council district 2 (Ellicott City), and activist John Taylor (of Howard Countians for Responsible Growth) announces a primary challenge against fellow Republican Charles Feaga, incumbent council member for District 5 (western Howard), whom Taylor accuses of being too pro-development.</p>
<p>Republican Gilbert South, who lost to Elizabeth Bobo in 1986, plans another try for the county executive post, running first against Charles Ecker.  (“So much for the conventional wisdom that only Democrats can have a primary,” notes GOP county chair Carol Arscott.)  South and Ecker ignore each other and team up against Bobo (a “spend-it-now county executive” according to Ecker, and “a willing pawn in the developers’ game of power” according to South).  Meanwhile Bobo’s Democratic primary Thomas Hartman promotes incorporating Columbia as a city and changing the county’s tax system to focus on the value of land, not buildings.  (“I don’t understand what he is talking about,” says Bobo regarding the latter proposal.)<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>(“Opponent of growth cap plans to run against Bobo,” February 1, 1990, p. 24; “Developers urge Bobo’s re-election,” February 1, 1990, p. 24; “Columbian starts run for council,” February 8, 1990, p. 32; “Activist opposes Shane,” May 24, 1990, p. 26; “Republicans enter 2 races,” February 15, 1990, p. 31; “Activist files for council,” March 29, 1990; “South will run again for exec,” April 26, 1990, p. 27; “Rivals blast Bobo on finances,” May 24, 1990, p. 26; “Exec candidate advocates incorporation of Columbia,” May 17, 1990, p. 31.)</p>
<p>May&ndash;July 1990.  As the filing deadline approaches incumbent county office-holders begin to declare their intentions.  Council District 5 council member Charles Feaga announces his plan to run for re-election (“growth should not be a dirty word,” he notes, in response to his primary challenger John Taylor), Shane Pendergrass and Angela Beltram do likewise in District 1 and District 2 respectively, Paul Farragut (previously appointed to the council to succeed the retiring Ruth Keeton) will face his first real electoral test in District 4 (west Columbia), and Virgina governor Doug Wilder helicopters in to announce his support of C. Vernon Gray’s re-election in District 3 (east Columbia).  (Explaining why he’s there even though Gray will apparently face no opposition in either the primary or the general election, Wilder cites Gray as following the maxim “prepare for war in times of peace.”)</p>
<p>Rounding out the primary lists for County Council are Republican Darrel Drown, looking forward to a rematch with Beltram, Democrat Susan Scheidt, recruited by Elizabeth Bobo to face Feaga.  and Republican Michael Deets, who signs on to run against Paul Farragut. As predicted, no candidates surface in opposition to C. Vernon Gray. (“It gives me pain as a Republican to say this, but . . . we decided, in good conscience, that we couldn’t ask anyone to run,” states Central Committee chair Carol Arscott.)  In the county executive race Thomas Hartman abandons his primary challenge to Bobo at the last minute.</p>
<p>(“2 incumbents announce,” June 7, 1990, p. 22; “3 announce re-election bid,” June 14, 1990, p. 28; “Beltram going for 2nd term,” June 28, 1990, p. 33; “GOP recruits 3 to face incumbents,” July 19, 1990, p. 21; “Candidates who have filed for county election,” July 26, 1990, p. 26.)</p>
<p>August&ndash;September 1990.  The primary campaigns heat up, as “horse race” coverage focuses on candidate fund-raising.  The first round of reports show Charles Feaga as the leader with over $42,000 raised (besting past council fund-raising champion C. Vernon Gray), while Michael Deets fulfills his pledge to run a “low-cost, low-key” campaign by reporting only $310 in his campaign fund ($300 of which is his own money).  In the county executive race Elizabeth Bobo raises more than both her Republican challengers combined, with Charles Ecker having spent “practically all” of his funds on various expenses, including running full-page ads in local newspapers in which his supporters criticize the Bobo administration (“Frankly, I’m tired of trying to talk through a closed door,” complains Bev Wilhide) and challenge voters: “I’m voting for Chuck Ecker.  Shouldn’t you?”<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>(“Feaga is council’s top fund raiser&mdash;gifts total $42.5K,” August 16, 1990, p. 24; Charles Ecker campaign advertisement, August 2, 1990, p. 19)</p>
<p>William Smith and John Taylor, who make a point of not accepting contributions from developers, attack their opponents on growth-related issues, with Smith claiming that Shane Pendergrass didn’t support adequate public facilities to accommodate county growth, and Taylor accusing Charles Feaga of “taking too much much money from developer interests.”  (Feaga counters that Taylor is a newcomer not familiar with Feaga’s past accomplishments: “[He’s] recently moved in and maybe only been here just two years as a registered voter.”)  Republican county executive candidates Charles Ecker and Gilbert South also contend to convince voters each has the best alternative approach to managing county growth.  (South jabs, “I just hear Chuck saying ‘These are the problems’.  . . .  That we need comprehensive planning.  . . .  But I’m not sure why Chuck doesn’t come out and say what these plans consist of.”)</p>
<p>(“Council rivals differ on growth,” August 23, 1990, p. 28; “Feaga, Taylor exchange jabs over land use,” September 6, 1990, p. 28; “Ecker, South vie to face Bobo,” August 30, p. 28.)</p>
<p>In a primary election marked by light turnout, Ecker defeats South by an over 2&ndash;1 margin to earn the right to face Elizabeth Bobo in the general election.  South offers his support (“[I’ll] do whatever I can to help Chuck”) but remains hopeful about his own political future (“I’ll be running again in four years!”).  Shane Pendergrass and Charles Feaga turn back the challenges from slow-growth activists William Smith and John Taylor, although Feaga’s margin is relatively small.  (“It’s scares me it’s so close” says Feaga’s campaign manager, Gail Bates, before Feaga finally crosses the line.)<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>All other incumbents are either unopposed or survive their primary challenges, with the exception of Sheriff Herbert Stonesifer, who goes down to defeat in the wake of a controversy over two of his deputies mimicking Nazis while on duty.  As Robert Kittleman prepares to run for re-election to the house of delegates, his son Allan surprises everyone by receiving more votes than Charles Ecker, winning a seat on the Republican Central Committee and sparking lively speculation about his political future.<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup></p>
<p>(“Victors,” September 13, 1990, p. 28; “Dems stress unity,” September 13, 1990, p. 30; “New stars emerge in parties,” September 27, 1990, p. 28.)</p>
<p>This has been a long post (absence has not made me less prolix), so I’ll conclude my discussion of the 1990 elections in part 12.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>All article references in this post are to the <em>Columbia Flier</em>; articles are available on microfilm at the <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=56">Central Branch</a> of the Howard County Library.  The <em>Columbia Flier</em> does not have online archives for this period, and the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> online archive does not cover the first eight months of the year.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Bobo’s comment aside, the notion of a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax">land value tax</a> was most famously promoted (in the form of a “single tax” to replace all others) by the 19th-century American politician and economist <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_George">Henry George</a>.  The proposal reappears in modern-day politics from time to time, although I don’t know if Thomas Hartman was explicitly influenced by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgism">Georgist</a> ideas.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>As a fan of good design I have to say that the Ecker campaign ads that ran in the <em>Columbia Flier</em> are really well-done, and although more than twenty years old they don’t look dated at all.  I offer much belated compliments to whoever did these ads.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>The <del>official 1986</del> unofficial 1990 primary election results for the county executive and county council races were as follows (incumbents are marked with an asterisk):</p>
<ul>
<li>County executive (R): Charles Ecker, 4,830 (68%); Gilbert South, 2,305 (32%).</li>
<li>District 1 (D): Shane Pendergrass (*), 1,827 (61%); William Smith, 1,178 (39%).</li>
<li>District 5 (R): Charles Feaga (*), 1,250 (54%); John Taylor, 1,049 (46%).</li>
</ul>
<p>Elizabeth Bobo was unopposed in the Democratic primary for county executive, as were the Democratic candidates in Council Districts 2, 3, 4, and 5, and the Republican candidates in Council Districts 1, 2, and 4; there was no Republican candidate in Council District 3.</p>
<p>(Results are from the <em>Columbia Flier</em> story “Unofficial Primary Results,” September 13, 1990, p. 29.  In my searches through the microfilm I didn’t find a story giving official results.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>Allan Kittleman of course went on to become state senator for District 9 and the senate minority leader (until he resigned the position in the wake of his public support for marriage equality).  Another person mentioned as a “new star” in the same article was 20-year-old Heidi Gersowski, a political science student who won election to the Democratic Central Committee as a non-slate candidate.  In a brief online search I couldn’t find any information regarding what later became of Gersowski.&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Columbia Borders to close in next two months?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/07/19/columbia-borders-to-close-in-next-two-months/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 19 Jul 2011 00:52:29 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/07/19/columbia-borders-to-close-in-next-two-months/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I happened to stumble on this &lt;em&gt;New York Times&lt;/em&gt; article this evening: “&lt;a href=&#34;http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/borders-calls-off-auction-plans-to-liquidate/&#34;&gt;Calling Off Auction, Borders Plans to Liquidate&lt;/a&gt;.”  According to the article, “Borders said it would proceed with a proposal . . . to close down its 399 remaining stores.  . . .  The company will begin closing its remaining stores as soon as Friday, and the liquidation is expected to run through September.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I presume that the Borders store in Columbia Crossing will be closed in the coming weeks as part of this plan, along with the Borders Express store in the Mall at Columbia.  Whether another bookseller will move into either of these locations is an open question.  The article speculates that “Other national book chains, like Barnes &amp;amp; Noble and Books-A-Million, could move into stores vacated by Borders.” but also notes that “Some competing bookstores are already nearby.  A spokeswoman for Barnes &amp;amp; Noble said that 70 percent of Barnes &amp;amp; Noble’s stores are within five miles of an existing Borders store.” This is true locally: The Ellicott City location of Barnes and Noble is just around five miles away in driving distance from the Columbia Crossing Borders, and less than five miles away as the crow flies.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I happened to stumble on this <em>New York Times</em> article this evening: “<a href="http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/07/18/borders-calls-off-auction-plans-to-liquidate/">Calling Off Auction, Borders Plans to Liquidate</a>.”  According to the article, “Borders said it would proceed with a proposal . . . to close down its 399 remaining stores.  . . .  The company will begin closing its remaining stores as soon as Friday, and the liquidation is expected to run through September.”</p>
<p>I presume that the Borders store in Columbia Crossing will be closed in the coming weeks as part of this plan, along with the Borders Express store in the Mall at Columbia.  Whether another bookseller will move into either of these locations is an open question.  The article speculates that “Other national book chains, like Barnes &amp; Noble and Books-A-Million, could move into stores vacated by Borders.” but also notes that “Some competing bookstores are already nearby.  A spokeswoman for Barnes &amp; Noble said that 70 percent of Barnes &amp; Noble’s stores are within five miles of an existing Borders store.” This is true locally: The Ellicott City location of Barnes and Noble is just around five miles away in driving distance from the Columbia Crossing Borders, and less than five miles away as the crow flies.</p>
<p>I’ll miss the Columbia Borders, but have to confess that I haven’t been in the place more than a couple of times over the last year or two&mdash;which I guess makes me part of the industry trend that led to Borders going out of business.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="85ba9ef3-002">JL (jonlemich@gmail.com) - 2011-07-19 13:21</h4>
<p>A couple times in the last year or two is fair. They have other brick and mortar competitors: Second Edition gets plenty of my business, as does the B&amp;N in Ellicott City. Second Edition doesn&rsquo;t seem to be doing badly, and that Borders location is probably one of their more profitable ones. There&rsquo;s always a line. I probably buy 4 books online for every 1 I buy in a brick and mortar store, but I probably buy 5 times the books of the American consumer, so it evens out&hellip; &hellip;Or maybe not. I split my brick and mortar purchases between Borders (Silver Spring, near work), Borders (Columbia), Second Edition and B&amp;N (Ellicott CIty) while all my online book purchases are from Amazon. So there&rsquo;s that.</p>
<h4 id="85ba9ef3-003">Ox (chrisoxenham85@gmail.com) - 2011-07-19 17:26</h4>
<p>It seems like the trend is moving towards nooks, ipad&rsquo;s and the like. Borders did not jump on this fast enough and got left behind. I happen to be a huge fan of collecting books, but I know many others prefer the ease of computerized reading. It will be interesting to see how these others chains compete in this marketplace moving forward. Columbia Crossing and Dobbin have seen a beatdown on businesses dying on them in the last 4 years: 1) Mammoth Golf 2) Expo Design Center 3) Borders 4) Comp USA 5) Tweeter 6) several furniture shops Ouch!</p>
<h4 id="85ba9ef3-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-07-19 18:59</h4>
<p>Ox, you may also remember that Borders was slow to get into selling books over the Internet, and eventually ended up outsourcing that function to Amazon (if I remember correctly). And you&rsquo;re right, Columbia Crossing and Columbia Crossing II are star-crossed in terms of retaining big box stores.</p>
<h4 id="85ba9ef3-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2011-07-19 23:40</h4>
<p>That place had death written all over it! In May 2007, I wrote a post giving them 12-18 months to survive. I was a few years off, but right on. #NoEvolutionEqualsDeath <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2007/05/28/borders-with-spaces/">http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2007/05/28/borders-with-spaces/</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Columbia and the structural shift to walkable urbanism</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/06/02/columbia-and-the-structural-shift-to-walkable-urbanism/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 02 Jun 2011 18:46:12 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/06/02/columbia-and-the-structural-shift-to-walkable-urbanism/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Now that I’ve &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/06/01/a-symbol-of-columbia/&#34;&gt;set the scene&lt;/a&gt; for &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.columbiamd.com/2011/05/media-resources-leinberger/&#34;&gt;Chris Leinberger’s presentation&lt;/a&gt; on the shift to walkable urbanism, let’s move on to the actual talk.  I took notes during the presentation (on my iPhone&amp;mdash;how 21st century is that?), and for this post I’ve basically taken those notes and expanded them, adding a few parenthetical comments along the way.  If you see any inaccuracies or omissions please contact me and I’ll update the post to correct them.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now that I’ve <a href="/2011/06/01/a-symbol-of-columbia/">set the scene</a> for <a href="http://www.columbiamd.com/2011/05/media-resources-leinberger/">Chris Leinberger’s presentation</a> on the shift to walkable urbanism, let’s move on to the actual talk.  I took notes during the presentation (on my iPhone&mdash;how 21st century is that?), and for this post I’ve basically taken those notes and expanded them, adding a few parenthetical comments along the way.  If you see any inaccuracies or omissions please contact me and I’ll update the post to correct them.</p>
<p>First up was John DeWolf, the Howard Hughes executive responsible for the company’s properties in Columbia and other east coast locations.  After a brief apology for the somewhat ineffective air conditioning (see my <a href="/2011/06/01/a-symbol-of-columbia/">previous post</a>), DeWolf noted (among other things) that according to Leinberger America was leaving the age of Leave It to Beaver and entering the age of Seinfeld.</p>
<p>Columbia Association president Phil Nelson, who was next up, echoed this theme, noting that only 8% of families in Washington DC were traditional nuclear families, and that while the median age in Columbia in its early days was 11 [with half the population not even yet in high school], it had now increased to 39.  Nelson introduced Leinberger and briefly reviewed <a href="http://www.optionofurbanism.com/bio.html">his biography</a>, including his activities as a real estate developer.  Then it was on with the show.</p>
<p>Leinberger began by paying homage to Jim Rouse and recalling earlier visits of his to Columbia and the Rouse Company (to “kiss the ring,” as he put it).  He noted that Rouse had always been at the forefront of trends: one of the first developers to build regional malls, a pioneer in creating new master-planned communities (i.e., Columbia), a visionary with respect to the rebirth of cities (including the role of the “festival markeplace,” and (most important for this presentation) the first mainstream developer to understand walkable urbanism.  [The subtext of the comments, which he later made more explicit: Jim Rouse moved on from the original vision of Columbia, and you should too.]</p>
<p>On to the main presentation: I didn’t quite catch the full title of the presentation, but one key phrase in the title was “the <em>structural</em> shift to walkable urbanism,” with the emphasis on “structural.”  [In other words, he’s not talking about a passing fad that drives people to contemplate leaving suburbia behind, he sees a deep shift in the economy that’s affecting long-term real estate trends.] After a brief comment about Columbia having gone “flatline” over the last twenty years, he pulled back to the big picture: [At this point I’ll drop the “Leinberger noted” and just present his comments as I understood them.]</p>
<p>The built environment (office buildings, retail stores, residences, etc.) accounts for 35% of US assets, and in the midst of the fall-out from the mortgage crisis we must re-engage with the built environment in order to spur economic growth.  The built environment also directly (e.g., via building heating) and indirectly (e.g., via transportation from home to office to retail and back) accounts for almost three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions, and thus changes to the built environment will be key to addressing climate change.</p>
<p>Transportation drives development, and not vice versa.  (That’s why the typical state government has a department of transportation, and not a department of sewage.)  A single mode of transportation, i.e., driving on roads, drives a single form of the built environment, i.e., drivable suburban.  Multi-modal transportation (roads plus rail) drives walkable urbanism.</p>
<p>The built environment is a direct reflection of the underlying economy, and changes to that environment are driven by structural shifts in the economy.  The agricultural economy of the 18th and 19th century gave rise to “40 acres and a mule” the dream that the typical American aspired to.  [Though Leinberger didn’t mention it, in political terms this translated into the vision of Thomas Jefferson of America as a nation of yeomen farmers, as opposed to Alexander Hamilton’s vision of American as an urban manufacturing nation.  Hamilton’s vision ultimately became reality, but Jefferson’s vision still exerts a powerful hold over our imagination and our politics.]</p>
<p>Beginning in the late 19th century and reaching its peak after World War II, the industrial economy produced a second dream, that of the house in the suburbs.  [If I recall correctly, at this point Leinberger played some illustrative clips from Back to the Future, in which the protagonist traveled back in time to 1955 and the building of the suburb in which he would be born,]  According to Leinberger the pendulum is now swinging back to a mix of suburban environments and walkable urban environments.</p>
<p>The shift to drivable suburban environment was in large part in response to market demand, but government had its thumb on the scale, as public policy helped promote drivable suburban environments through various means, most notably subsidization of road construction.  Leinberger noted that development patterns in American cities in the latter half of the 20th century could be predicted by three factors: The location [often pre-existing] of “executive housing” [i.e., the sort of neighborhoods in which families aspired to live], the location of “minority housing” [usually on the other side of town from the executive housing], and the locations of freeways.</p>
<p>The result was that new residential, office, and retail development was preferentially directed to a particular quadrant or pie slice of the region surrounding central cities.  In many cities, including Washington DC, this favored sector was to the north or northwest of the central city.  [See for example Montgomery County, with Bethesda, Potomac, North Bethesda, Rockville, North Potomac, Gaithersburg, and Germantown all strung out along the I-270 corridor, with development finally reaching Frederick County.]  Columbia is actually an exception to this rule of thumb&mdash;about which more later.  The end result was classic suburban sprawl: As people moved further and further out in the favored sectors, the availability of open land [a consequence of simple geometry: there’s more pie in the slice near the rim than in the center] and the desire for bigger houses and yards meant that every 1% increase in population drove a 4-8% increase in land used for development.</p>
<p>However now we’re seeing the downside of suburban growth.  For example, in the Chicago metropolitan region the outer suburbs (exurban communities) are by far the largest per-capita contributors to energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.  Similarly, the mortgage crisis is mainly a phenomenon of drivable suburban communities: that’s where most of the foreclosures are.</p>
<p>Meanwhile the economy s shifting beneath our feet again.  Having replaced the industrial economy while continuing the trend to drivable suburbanism, the knowledge economy is in turn being replaced by the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Experience_Economy">experience economy</a>.”  [I’m presuming here that Leinberger is using the term in the same sense as the <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Experience-Economy-Theater-Every-Business/dp/0875848192" title="The Experience Economy">book of the same name</a> by Pine and Gilmore.] This is leading to a third American dream: Having the choice of either a drivable suburban or walkable urban environment.</p>
<p>Why is there a market deman for walkable urban environments?  One factor is that suburbia contains within itself the seeds of its own destruction: “more is less” when it comes to the suburbs.  As more people move to the suburbs, the ills people sought to escape (traffic, pollution, crime) eventually follow them.  In reaction people form neighborhood associations [of which Columbia Association is the apotheosis] to preserve and protect the suburban experience.  [Though Leinberger didn’t use the term, here we also see the birth of NIMBYism in its modern form.]</p>
<p>Just as their parents were seduced by the images of suburbia they saw on TV [cue clip from I Love Lucy], so kids who grow up in the suburbs were seduced by new “images of how to live,” in this case images of walkable urban environments as portrayed on Seinfeld [cue Jerry and George walking past a small grocery on a New York street], Friends, Sex and the City, etc.  [It’s important to note here that these are manufactured images targeted at predominantly white middle-class consumers interested in the comedic and dramatic adventures of other white middle and upper-middle class consumers.  Part of the Hollywood strategy here was to recast minorities from urban threats to background contributors to urban atmosphere.]</p>
<p>Other reasons for the rising popularity of walkable urban environments include the increasing number of empty nesters and other households without kids (only 14% of new households over next 20 years will have kids), boredom with life in the drivable suburbs, demand from members of the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_class">Creative Class</a>,” and the increasing expense of the car-centric lifestyle: Automobile-related expenses account for 19% of the average American household budget, 25% of the suburban budget, but only 9% of the budget in walkable urban environments.  The household that gives up a car in return gets the ability to carry a mortgage of over $100K more than they previously could.  [And they’ll need that extra money, as we’ll see.]</p>
<p>Market demand reflects these trends.  Large houses on large lots have been massively over-produced: There’s enough surplus housing stock of this type to satisfy needs for a generation.  This over-supply drives suburban housing prices down, while the desire for walkable urban environments drives housing prices in those areas up.  Here Leinberger compared high-end housing in Great Falls, Virginia, with high-end housing in the Dupont Circle area of Washington DC.  In 2000 the typical Great Falls high-end residence cost more per square foot than the typical high-end residence in Dupont Circle.  Now the situation has reversed, with the Dupont Circle residence commanding a premium on a per-square-foot basis to the typical Great Falls McMansion.</p>
<p>This same dynamic played out on a larger scale in the recent mortgage crisis: Housing in (relatively) close-in suburbs rose in value and then fell, but housing in further-out suburbs fell more in relative terms.  Housing in walkable urban environments, on the other hand, went from being less-expensive than suburban housing on a per-square-foot basis to being significantly more expensive, as housing values rose faster over the past few years and then fell less.</p>
<p>How to create walkable urban places?  This is inherently complex to do vs. traditional development strategies.  It’s like driving in a NASCAR race versus piloting a jet fighter: The NASCAR driver just has to drive straight and turn left, while the fighter pilot has to navigate in a three-dimensional environment.  [In other words, “let’s build a subdivision!”&mdash;or a shopping mall, or office park&mdash;is easy compared to “let’s create a thriving mixed-use community with balanced transportation services and attractive and convenient residential, retail, and office spaces.”] In a walkable urban community “more is more.”  In other words, higher density and new added spaces and uses add to the value perceived by residents, if they are within walkable distance, roughly 1500-3000 feet, or an area of about 400 acres.  [As Leinberger noted, this is from “pi r-squared,” the formula for the area of a circle.  A circle with a radius of about 2,400 feet, or just under a mile from side to side, contains about 17 million square feet or about 400 acres.] In addition to the walkable urban area itself, there’s also a premium that accrues to drivable suburban areas in close proximity to a walkable urban area: People just outside the boundary of the walkable urban area can to a large degree have the benefits of both a suburban lifestyle and easy access to urban amenities.  [This is a very important point when it comes to Columbia Town Center redevelopment and its effect on the adjacent villages.] We do need to be conscious of affordability, but there are various good approaches we can take to help with this.  [And one good approach is to have more walkable urban communities.  Recall from earlier: The current per-square-foot premium for residences in walkable urban spaces is a function of high demand for those spaces and a limited supply.  Increase the supply of walkable urban spaces to match the demand and the premium will disappear.]</p>
<p>It turns out that the Washington DC area has the highest number of walkable urban communities of any place in the country.  [Higher even than New York?  Leinberger didn’t address this.]  Where there used to be only two such places in and around DC, now there are about twenty.  In general across the US we’d expect to find about four to seven walkable urban places per one million in population.  65% of walkable urban places have rail service, but in the DC area 90% of such places do.</p>
<p>There are five kinds of walkable places</p>
<ul>
<li>downtown</li>
<li>downtown adjacent (e.g., Fells Point in Baltimore)</li>
<li>suburban town centers (e.g., Mountain View CA [or Bethesda])</li>
<li>suburban redevelopment (e.g., Ballston)</li>
<li>suburban greenfield (e.g., Reston Town Center)</li>
</ul>
<p>The good news: There is pent up market demand for walkable urban places [as demonstrated by their price premium].  Creation of walkable urban places can be a driver for the economy [and such places in turn can become hotspots of entrepreneurial innovation].  This can help drive redevelopment of cities and suburbs, and lead to reduced greenhouse gas emissions.</p>
<p>There are various national issues that need to be addressed in order to support development of walkable urban communities.  Two examples are the transportation bill (relatively small as these things go) and an infrastructure “bank” to fund infrastructure improvements.  [I didn’t have time to write down all the points om this slide.]</p>
<p>[Finally, what we all were waiting for: What does this mean for Columbia?]  What Columbia got right:</p>
<ul>
<li>a prime location between Washington DC and Baltimore [which allowed it to avoid the curse of being on the wrong side of town vis-a-vis Baltimore]</li>
<li>the “best in class” of drivable suburban communities (essentially a “pretty” form of sprawl)</li>
<li>Columbia Association</li>
<li>community input</li>
<li>made the right thing easy to do [not sure of the exact meaning behind this]</li>
<li>Howard Hughes Corporation is picking up the Rouse vision</li>
</ul>
<p>But [and a very big “but”] Columbia is missing an essential piece of a walkable urban community: rail transit.  Bus rapid transit (with dedicated lanes) is a reasonable interim solution, but less desirable for the long term; in particular suburbanites won’t ride buses [a lower-status mode of transportation].  How to pay for rail transit?  Maybe some government funding [but less than in the past], maybe some funding from developers (who subsidized streetcar systems for the original suburbs), but most likely the funding will have to come from residents themselves in the form of higher taxes.  But people have shown themselves willing to take on this burden in other places, even in the midst of a recession (e.g., St. Louis), so it’s not out of the question here in Columbia.</p>
<p>[Leinberger then moved to questions and answers.  Both the questions and answers below are paraphrased.]</p>
<p>Q: What would happen if nothing changes in Columbia?</p>
<p>A: Home values would drift downward over time [consistent with experience in the rest of the country].</p>
<p>Q: How can Columbia be walkable when the retail areas (e.g., the Mall in Columbia) have no sidewalks?</p>
<p>A: Existing retail centers need to put in a street grid and bring that grid right up to the center’s stores.  Anchor stores will fight this, but it’s necessary to integrate existing centers into the walkable urban environment.  In some places existing malls have been demolished and redeveloped, which solves the problem as a side effect.</p>
<p>Q: Rail transit is the most important infrastructure of 21st century.  What advice can you give on how to push the issue with the relevant governments?</p>
<p>A: One approach is to go ahead and build a “transit ready” place, and deal with the rail issue later&mdash;basically grow the community to a point where its density and overall population are high enough to attract rail infrastructure.  Reston Town Center is an example of this.  One possible funding mechanism is through a supplement to the existing sales tax.</p>
<p>Q: How can we integrate existing regional malls?</p>
<p>A: In some cases they’ll be torn down and redeveloped.  In other cases we can build right up to existing retail centers, and open them up to the outside world&mdash;maybe even run streets through them in some cases.</p>
<p>Q: What about the social values that have characterized Columbia?</p>
<p>A: Redevelopment doesn’t mean turning our back on our values, particularly when it comes to affordable housing.  An example is the Albuquerque Trust [I think he meant the <a href="http://www.abqcivictrust.org/mission.html">Albuquerque Civic Trust</a>], which directs 15-20% of deals into affordable housing.  Other possible approaches include inclusionary zoning, or allowing auxiliary housing [see below].  They’re working on metrics at Brookings in relation to this general issue; this will be the subject of a future book.</p>
<p>Q: How do we reuse existing single family homes?</p>
<p>A.  This is a tough question.  One possibility is loosening regulations to allow renting auxiliary space not needed by the households living there (“granny flats”).  [Note: for a lot of houses this could require significant remodeling.]</p>
<p>Q: What about the cultural and educational aspects of walkable urban places?</p>
<p>A: We need regionally significant places, including sports (baseball but not football), education, and medical facilities.  A good example is what Camden Yards did for downtown Baltimore.  Such facilities can share parking with existing office and retail centers.</p>
<p>Q: What are the biggest obstacles for lenders?</p>
<p>A: Siloed thinking.  Lenders are used to dealing with a single type of development at a time: just residential, or just office, or just retail.  Go back to the NASCAR driver vs. fighter pilot analogy; lenders will have to learn how to navigate in this new environment.</p>
<p>Q: What about the role of the Internet?  We can now work online, and organize online, and play online.</p>
<p>A: Most people who spend their days in front of a computer don’t want to spend their nights in front of a computer as well.  They want to get out, see friends, and have fun, and they want to do it in walkable urban places.</p>
<p>[That was the last question and the end of the event.  I hope this was useful both for those who didn’t attend and for those that did.]</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="1c359e65-001"><a href="http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com" title="trevordentist@gmail.com">Trevor</a> - 2011-06-03 02:36</h4>
<p>And the winner for most comprehensive post about the Leinberger talk goes too&hellip; drumroll please&hellip; Hecker! Yay! I saw Hecker tapping away on his Iphone, and I was trying to keep up with my Ipad. About halfway through my fingers started cramping up, but he was still going strong at about 100 words per minute. Great recap!</p>
<h4 id="1c359e65-002"><a href="http://hococonnect.blogspot.com" title="duanestclair@gmail.com">HoCo Connect</a> - 2011-06-03 11:54</h4>
<p>Great post. I am referencing your post on my site. I bet you were the student who had a couple of notebooks full of notes for each class in school. I now know who to go to for my study notes.</p>
<h4 id="1c359e65-003"><a href="http://columbiacompass.blogspot.com" title="columbiacompass@gmail.com">b.santos</a> - 2011-06-03 13:29</h4>
<p>Frank, I taped the meeting and I don&rsquo;t think I could reproduce the depth and character of the meeting you have captured here. Great Job!</p>
<h4 id="1c359e65-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-06-03 14:14</h4>
<p>I&rsquo;m glad you all liked the recap. I have to confess that I don&rsquo;t have the patience to watch videos or listen to podcasts, so I really like to read text transcripts and summaries, and decided to take notes for other folks like me who couldn&rsquo;t attend. Also, I have lousy handwriting, so taking notes on my iPhone is really the only way to go. Trevor: I don&rsquo;t write at 100 words per minute, the secret to is writing down only key points and statistics and then using that to reconstruct the rest from memory.</p>
<h4 id="1c359e65-005">Chris Tsien (christsien@verizon.net) - 2011-06-03 15:11</h4>
<p>Apropos of this discussion, the morning after Leinberger, my wife was in a management meeting on why, other than pay differential, does her organization (in Balt City) lose highly qualified young people to DC &ndash; Her answer: walkable urban. Later my wife asked one of her (young) special assistants where she would prefer living and, low and behold, the unprompted answer was, in essence, walkable urban.</p>
<h4 id="1c359e65-006"><a href="http://Www.cleinberger.com" title="Cleinberger@brookings.edu">Chris Leinberger</a> - 2011-06-05 20:04</h4>
<p>Becker, I rarely respond to comments on a speech but, you truly nailed the summary. I have never been summarized as clearly with insightful comments that take selective ideals further. I wanted to mention where metro New York is on the top 30 metros in per capita walkable urban places? Metro NY was #10&hellip;hence I got a call from the NY Post blasting me&hellip;NYC is the most walkable place in the country. Well, Manhattan absolutely is but it only represents 8% of the metro area population with only a couple handful of walkable urbAn places outside Manhattan&hellip;Brooklyn, Jersey City, Princeton, Stamford have one or two each. Most of the other 92% live in a metro stretching over four states at a density far less than Los Angeles metro&hellip;.only a few live like Seinfeld while the rest live more like the Sopranos. Regarding the experience economy, yep, you nailed that as well. I am awaiting the update of pine and Gilmore book which is due in a couple months. So very impressed with your work. Chris Leinberger</p>
<h4 id="1c359e65-007"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-06-05 20:35</h4>
<p>Thanks very much for stopping by to comment. I&rsquo;m glad you felt my summary represented your views accurately; I always worry about misrepresenting someone when I do something like this. I really enjoyed your presentation, and look forward to reading your book.</p>
<h4 id="1c359e65-008"><a href="http://www.columbiamd.com/2011/06/talk-of-the-town-walkable-urbanism/">Talk of the Town: Walkable Urbanism. | Downtown Columbia, MD</a> - 2011-06-13 14:43</h4>
<p>[&hellip;] June 2nd – Frank Hecker blog – Columbia &amp; the Structural Shift to Walkable Urbanism [&hellip;]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A symbol of Columbia</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/06/01/a-symbol-of-columbia/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Jun 2011 23:06:13 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/06/01/a-symbol-of-columbia/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Tonight I attended the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.columbiamd.com/2011/05/media-resources-leinberger/&#34;&gt;presentation by Chris Leinberger&lt;/a&gt; on “walkable urbanism” at the Spear Center in the Howard Hughes Corporation building in downtown Columbia.  I hope to have more to say about the presentation later, but right now I wanted to reflect a bit on the room and the building in which it took place.  The &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.waymarking.com/waymarks/WM3V0K_Rouse_Company_Headquarters_Frank_Gehry_Columbia_MD_USA&#34;&gt;building&lt;/a&gt; was the original headquarters office of the Rouse Company; I gather it used to be named the “Rouse Building,” but I don’t know if that name is used anymore, at least officially.  It’s one of architect &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Gehry&#34;&gt;Frank Gehry&lt;/a&gt;’s earliest designs; though he’s now famous, Gehry was at the beginning of his career when &lt;a href=&#34;http://issuu.com/ashleysimcox/docs/baltimoremag&#34;&gt;he designed several structures in Columbia&lt;/a&gt;, and the building shows little hint of what later become Gehry’s signature style.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tonight I attended the <a href="http://www.columbiamd.com/2011/05/media-resources-leinberger/">presentation by Chris Leinberger</a> on “walkable urbanism” at the Spear Center in the Howard Hughes Corporation building in downtown Columbia.  I hope to have more to say about the presentation later, but right now I wanted to reflect a bit on the room and the building in which it took place.  The <a href="http://www.waymarking.com/waymarks/WM3V0K_Rouse_Company_Headquarters_Frank_Gehry_Columbia_MD_USA">building</a> was the original headquarters office of the Rouse Company; I gather it used to be named the “Rouse Building,” but I don’t know if that name is used anymore, at least officially.  It’s one of architect <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Gehry">Frank Gehry</a>’s earliest designs; though he’s now famous, Gehry was at the beginning of his career when <a href="http://issuu.com/ashleysimcox/docs/baltimoremag">he designed several structures in Columbia</a>, and the building shows little hint of what later become Gehry’s signature style.</p>
<p>In any case it’s an elegant building, and a welcome exception to the generally undistinguished architecture found in Columbia and Howard County in general.  This was actually the first time I had ever set foot in the building, despite having lived in Howard County for over ten years and having blogged about local affairs for the last two or three.  As I said, it’s a beautiful building, with its natural wood and white walls.  The Spear Center, the large fourth-floor room where the event took place, apparently occupies a special place in the history of Columbia; as a <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2007-06-03/news/0706020142_1_spear-rouse-howard-county" title="Spear Center memories part of Columbia life"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> story</a> from 2007 notes, it was in times past the scene of weddings, bar and bat mitzvahs, Rouse corporate events, and community celebrations of all kinds.</p>
<p>Now it’s over 30 years since the building was constructed, and despite the surface beauty it’s apparently feeling its age.  <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/">Wordbones</a> (who once worked in the building) mentioned to me that the bankruptcy of GGP meant that maintenance on the building was delayed and deferred, to the point where the roof leaks in places, including in one room where materials relating to Columbia’s history are stored.  It’s also apparently too big for the current workforce, and it’s difficult and expensive to heat and cool.  (In fact, it was somewhat warm in the Spear Center as the presentation started.)</p>
<p>Meanwhile Frank Gehry’s gone on to greater things, and the former Rouse building seems to me to symbolize Columbia in miniature: A product of another era that’s now drawing to a close (the age of “drivable suburbanism,” as Leinberger put it), over-sized and energy-inefficient, still attractive but at risk of deterioration and desuetude, putting its hopes in a new owner and the possibility of renewal and re-vision.</p>
<p>Are those hopes misplaced?  More on that I hope in a future post, when I discuss what Leinberger said in that room in that building in the heart of Columbia.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>In Howard County, should charity really begin at home?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/05/19/in-howard-county-should-charity-really-begin-at-home/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 19 May 2011 00:15:25 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/05/19/in-howard-county-should-charity-really-begin-at-home/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;A month or two back I donated in support of &lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt;’s personal &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2011/03/breaking-through.html&#34;&gt;“End Homelessness in Howard County” drive&lt;/a&gt;, and have through the years also donated to other local organizations and causes.  It’s natural to do so, and if I were more involved in Howard County affairs than I currently am I’m sure I’d encounter many more opportunities to promote and donate to local Howard County and Maryland charities.  However today I’m going to stop and consider the question: In one of the wealthiest counties in the United States, should we really be spending our charity dollars locally?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A month or two back I donated in support of <em>HoCo Rising</em>’s personal <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2011/03/breaking-through.html">“End Homelessness in Howard County” drive</a>, and have through the years also donated to other local organizations and causes.  It’s natural to do so, and if I were more involved in Howard County affairs than I currently am I’m sure I’d encounter many more opportunities to promote and donate to local Howard County and Maryland charities.  However today I’m going to stop and consider the question: In one of the wealthiest counties in the United States, should we really be spending our charity dollars locally?</p>
<p>There are multiple ways of looking at this question.  One of the most rigorous is taken by <a href="http://www.givewell.org/">GiveWell</a>, a new charity research service whose <a href="http://www.givewell.org/about">mission</a> is to “focus on how well programs actually work&mdash;i.e., their effects on the people they serve.”  GiveWell has high standards for charities, <a href="http://www.givewell.org/charities">recommending</a> only 2% of those organizations it reviews and awarding only two charities its highest rating.  Although GiveWell does recommend some <a href="http://www.givewell.org/united-states">US charities</a>, they put more emphasis on <a href="http://www.givewell.org/international">charities in developing countries</a> where “donors can have large impact&mdash;saving a life for less than $1,000.”</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.givewell.org/about/people">founders of GiveWell</a> came out of the financial services sector, and in a sense they are looking at charitable giving as they would look at potential investments: where should people “invest” their donations to get the maximum “return”?  It’s a clear-eyed approach to giving, with a focus on <a href="http://www.givewell.org/about/transparency">transparency</a>, analytical rigor, and using reason to harness <a href="http://blog.givewell.org/2007/04/03/charity-the-video-game-thats-real/">the emotions that drive giving</a> and direct them to the most effective ends.</p>
<p>I doubt that most local charities (whether in Howard County or anywhere else) would be well-equipped to pass the “GiveWell test.”  Most charities don’t do rigorous self-examination of how effective they are, and most don’t have the level of transparency that would allow others to do their own examinations.  (As a simple example, pick any charity of your choice and see if it provides on its own web site even basic information about its finances, including the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRS_tax_forms#990">Form 990</a> tax returns that the IRS requires 501(c)(3) tax-exempt organizations to provide to the public upon request.)  So that’s one reason a devil’s advocate could cite in support of not giving to local charities.</p>
<p>A second reason has to do with need: As mentioned above, Howard County is one of the waelthiest counties in the US, which means that it’s one of the very wealthiest places in the world.  Moreover, as wealthy places go it has a <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/" title="Income inequality in Howard County, part 1">relatively low level of income inequality</a>, and is less marked by extremes of wealth and poverty than many other localities.  The devil’s advocate asks, shouldn’t we instead focus our charitable giving on places where people are truly poor and desperate, and where only a few people can even dream of leading what in the US would be a modest working class life?</p>
<p>Finally, there’s the problem of “<a href="http://bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2011/03/discerning-desert/">discerning desert</a>” (as the folks at the <a href="http://bleedingheartlibertarians.com/">Bleeding Heart Libertarians</a> blog recently called it): In a relatively wealthy county with a relatively low rate of unemployment, how do we know that those who remain poor truly deserve our help?  Perhaps, the devil’s advocate might say, those who are poor in a rich county are that way due to their own faults (whatever those might be)?  If so, why should we devote our charitable giving to their needs?  When we consider the plight of the truly poor in other countries the question of desert is less urgent: poverty is so widespread in such countries that we can assume that most (if not almost all) of the poor are undeserving of that fate.</p>
<p>What responses can we make to these questions?  A first response is to assert that whether someone deserves our help or not is not an issue: We’re talking about donations to private charity, not government money taken from us by “men with guns” (as some libertarians like to say), so the issue of desert discussed at the BHL post referenced above doesn’t come into play.  I don’t think this is a particularly strong response.  There is in fact government funding of at least some local charities, so not all of the money we’re talking about is freely given; some of it does come from taxpayers.</p>
<p>Moreover, even private donations to charity impose a burden on taxpayers due to US and state charitable deductions: If someone chooses to donate to an undeserving or ineffective charity then the taxes they pay could be reduced by a substantial fraction of that donation, and other people must bear the burden of making up in their taxes what the charitable giver avoids paying.  Moreover, the people bearing this burden are more likely to be less well off themselves, since people with lower incomes (and hence lower taxes and tax rates) don’t realize as much benefit from charitable deductions.</p>
<p>I think a better response to the question of desert is to note that a local charity serving local people is (or at least should be) better equipped to evaluate who most deserves help, and who does not.  Since those running local charities are our neighbors and perhaps even our associates or friends, we can in turn better judge whether they are to be trusted with the task of doing that evaluation.</p>
<p>What about the relative need of those local to us versus those in distant lands?  Here I think we have to acknowledge the universal principle that things that happen near to us affect us more than events far away.  Even if we don’t consider them as close to us as our family, friends, or neighbors, still those people whom we pass by on local streets and see in local shops, who may serve us in local restaurants or at our homes and local places of business, and whose children may sit next to ours in local schools&mdash;these people, when they need help, exert a claim on us that is immediate and direct, and one that I don’t think we can or should simply ignore in favor of those more distant from us.</p>
<p>Finally, what about the effectiveness of local charities?  Here again being local can be an advantage: If we want to hold local charities to higher standards for evaluating their activities and promoting transparency than they currently meet, we have the opportunity to make the case for those higher standards directly to the people running the charities, and to put our money where our mouth is by serving on boards, helping to raise additional funds to support evaluation efforts, or otherwise lending a helping hand where needed.</p>
<p>This speaks to a final point in favor of giving to and working with local charities: They give us an opportunity to participate in the web of reciprocity that binds together the people of the county and ultimately makes it a community and not just a place to live.  Many of these opportunities are admittedly somewhat frivolous and at times excessive (just how many charity galas and golf tournaments do we really need?), but others are key to building and developing a <a href="http://www.cff.org/Chapters/maryland/index.cfm?ID=16926&amp;blnShowBack=True&amp;idContentType=1363&amp;Event=16926">cadre of people</a> who will see Howard County through the first half of the 21st century.</p>
<p>So what did I decide in the end?  Should charity begin at home, or not?  I decided this isn’t really an either-or question.  As I noted above, I contributed to the <em>HoCo Rising</em> campaign because I felt that my fellow citizens of Howard County shouldn’t have to experience homelessness, and also because I had at least some small experience with the work that the folks at the <a href="http://www.grassrootscrisis.org/">Grassroots Crisis Intervention Center</a> do.  (I’ve dropped by their <a href="https://rt1daycenter.wikispaces.com/">Route 1 center</a> many times with dishes of mashed potatoes, macaroni and cheese, and other food we’ve cooked for the center’s visitors.)</p>
<p>At the same time I also donated to <a href="http://www.givewell.org/international/top-charities/villagereach">VillageReach</a>, Givewell’s top-rated international charity, both because I want to encourage other charities to aim for the high standards for evaluation and effectiveness that VillageReach meets, and also because I wanted to help give other people elsewhere in the world a chance to someday build for themselves, their families, and their countries the kind of society that we experience and take for granted every day here in Howard County.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="c5bbf745-001">JL (jonlemich@gmail.com) - 2011-05-19 11:59</h4>
<p>Nobody likes being poor. Some people just don&rsquo;t know any other way. Or they&rsquo;re not capable of it. For the most part, there are two kinds of jobs in Howard County: Excellent IT jobs requiring a 4-year degree and, frequently, a security clearance; and summer jobs at Abercrombie and Pizza Hut for those guys&rsquo; teenage kids. That&rsquo;s an oversimplification, but we&rsquo;re not an agricultural or industrial center. So there&rsquo;s not much else here.</p>
<h4 id="c5bbf745-002"><a href="http://www.touchingsoulsintl.org/" title="pauladams709@yahoo.com">donate to a charity</a> - 2011-05-19 12:19</h4>
<p>Hi, Thanks for such a nice,useful and informative blog post. I highly appreciate your efforts for educating people about such a noble cause through your blog. :)</p>
<h4 id="c5bbf745-004"><a href="http://hococonnect.blogspot.com/" title="duanestclair@gmail.com">HoCo Connect</a> - 2011-05-21 15:15</h4>
<p>Great post. I would suggest that charitable giving should be like investing&ndash;diversified. Give to charities internationally dealing with life threatening conditions, nationally to organizations working in the US and local groups addressing the needs of people in Howard County. It doesn&rsquo;t have to be chosing one type of giving over another.</p>
<h4 id="c5bbf745-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-05-21 16:34</h4>
<p>Exactly. I&rsquo;ll add that it would be nice to have more evaluation of local charities for effectiveness, along the lines of what GiveWell is trying to do for international and US charity. Unfortunately it&rsquo;s a time-consuming task, both for the charities and the evaluators.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Proclaim LIBERTY throughout all the Land</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/04/14/proclaim-liberty-throughout-all-the-land/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 14 Apr 2011 19:34:49 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/04/14/proclaim-liberty-throughout-all-the-land/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/liberty-bell.jpg&#34;&gt;&lt;img loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/liberty-bell-embed.jpg#floattopleft&#34; title=&#34;Liberty Bell&#34;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Before heading home after a recent family visit to attend the Philadelphia Flower Show, we stopped to see the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.nps.gov/inde/liberty-bell-center.htm&#34;&gt;Liberty Bell&lt;/a&gt;.  One of the most interesting aspects of the bell’s history (which I hadn’t fully appreciated before my visit) is that for almost the first hundred years of its life (it was cast in 1753) it didn’t really serve as a symbol of liberty or freedom, despite the quote from Leviticus 25:10 (“Proclaim LIBERTY throughout all the Land unto all the Inhabitants thereof”) inscribed on the bell.  It was simply the bell that hung in the Pennsylvania State House and was rung on special occasions, including possibly on July 8, 1776, to mark the reading of the Declaration of Independence.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/liberty-bell.jpg"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/liberty-bell-embed.jpg#floattopleft" title="Liberty Bell"></a></p>
<p>Before heading home after a recent family visit to attend the Philadelphia Flower Show, we stopped to see the <a href="http://www.nps.gov/inde/liberty-bell-center.htm">Liberty Bell</a>.  One of the most interesting aspects of the bell’s history (which I hadn’t fully appreciated before my visit) is that for almost the first hundred years of its life (it was cast in 1753) it didn’t really serve as a symbol of liberty or freedom, despite the quote from Leviticus 25:10 (“Proclaim LIBERTY throughout all the Land unto all the Inhabitants thereof”) inscribed on the bell.  It was simply the bell that hung in the Pennsylvania State House and was rung on special occasions, including possibly on July 8, 1776, to mark the reading of the Declaration of Independence.</p>
<p>The State House bell was actually named the “Liberty Bell” in the 1830s by abolitionists, who called on the nation to fulfill the promise of the bell’s inscription to those millions of “inhabitants thereof” who were enslaved.  The idea of the bell as a symbol of liberty took fire during the decades before and after the Civil War (helped along by some 19th-century patriotic myth-making), and it’s been subsequently adopted in turn by multiple groups and causes, from the women’s suffrage movement of the early 1900s (which featured a replica “<a href="http://www.libertybellmuseum.com/exhibits/Womansbell.htm">Woman’s Liberty Bell</a>”) to a US Savings Bond campaign in the 1950s that portrayed the bell as a symbol of freedom in opposition to communism.</p>
<p>That campaign featured the <a href="http://www.libertybellmuseum.com/exhibits/statebells/index.htm">distribution of replica bells</a> to all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and various US territories, and many other replicas have been placed around the country and around the world.  <a href="http://www.annapolissound.com/society/this-place-time-historic-bells-st-johns-college-united-states-naval-academy/">Maryland’s version of the bell</a> is unfortunately hidden away on the campus of St.  John’s College, but others serve as public rallying points.  For example, the <a href="http://www.pbase.com/dougkess/image/36058893">Liberty Bell replica in Bakersfield, California</a> (<a href="http://www.co.kern.ca.us/clerk/boards/heritage/">erected as part of the 1976 bicentennial</a>) has served as a venue for a diverse set of events and causes: a <a href="http://www.bakersfield.com/news/local/x735122708/Tea-Party-rally-nets-enthusiastic-crowd">Tea Party Patriots Tax Day Rally</a>, the <a href="http://queerbakersfield.com/2010/10/16/31st-annual-pride-rally-steppin-out-at-the-liberty-bell/">31st annual Pride Rally</a> by the Bakersfield gay community, a <a href="http://www.bakersfield.com/news/local/x1608647873/PHOTOS-This-is-how-Bakersfield-celebrates-the-national-Day-of-Prayer">local National Day of Prayer rally</a>, <a href="http://media.www.therip.com/media/storage/paper443/news/2011/03/30/News/Teachers.Rally.At.Bakersfield.City.Courthouse-3988940.shtml">protests against education funding cuts</a>, a <a href="http://www.bakersfield.com/news/local/x1365315515/March-marks-medical-marijuana-milestone">celebration of medical marijuana legislation</a>, and <a href="http://local.we-r-1.org/weareone/events/show/213">local events by civil rights activists and labor unions</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1405170794/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=frankhecker-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=1405170794"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/a-brief-history-of-liberty-embed.jpg#floattopright" title="A Brief History of Liberty"></a></p>
<p>Despite the diversity, all of these events have at their heart support and celebration of some aspect of liberty and freedom.  As I’ve noted previously, I’ve been recently reading and commenting on the <a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/">Bleeding Heart Libertarians blog</a>.  <a href="http://www.jasonfbrennan.com/">Jason Brennan</a>, one of the founders of the blog, is the co-author (with <a href="http://www.davidschmidtz.com/">David Schmidtz</a>) of <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1405170794/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=frankhecker-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=1405170794">A Brief History of Liberty</a></em>, which discusses the varying concepts of liberty that have arisen over the years, including political liberty and the rule of law, religious freedom, free markets, civil rights, and personal independence and psychological freedom.</p>
<p>Although it’s marketed as part of a history of philosophy series, <em>A Brief History of Liberty</em> is a really excellent introduction for general readers and can be profitably consulted by anyone no matter where they sit on the political spectrum (or on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nolan_Chart">Nolan Chart</a>, if you’re into that).  Conservatives and libertarians should read it for a good discussion of liberty as capability, i.e., the point that absence of restraint on personal action can and in many people’s minds should be complemented by measures to ensure that every person is able to profitably take advantage of that freedom.  This includes ensuring that every person receives an adequate education, is protected against catastrophic and economically ruinous health problems, and is otherwise equipped to be a productive member of society.  In a Howard County context the <a href="http://www.hcpss.org/">school system</a>, the <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/">public library system</a> (which aims to provide “high-quality public education for all ages”), and initiatives like the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/CitizenServices/CSDocs/pehbpss11.pdf">Plan to End Homelessness</a> [PDF] (spearheaded by the aptly named <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/CitizenServices/Partnerships/CommAdvBrds_TheBoardtoPromoteSelfSufficiency.htm">Board to Promote Self-Sufficiency</a>) can all be seen as supporting this goal.</p>
<p>Liberals (in the modern sense) and progressives should in turn read <em>A Brief History of Liberty</em> for a robust defense of a free market economy and its ability to promote general prosperity and provide a quality of life even for the poorest families that is greatly improved over that experienced by most people outside the developed world.  You don’t need to be a <a href="http://www.aynrand.org/site/PageServer?pagename=objectivism_intro">Randian</a> to believe that doing business is a capitalistic society is a worthy endeavor, and you don’t have to be a <a href="http://www.howardchamber.com/governmentaffairs.aspx">Chamber of Commerce lobbyist</a> to question whether government sometimes over-steps in regulating businesses.</p>
<p>To give but two examples, locally we’ve seen a long-running controversy about <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/maryland-politics/post/md-wine-bill-shipped-to-omalley/2011/04/09/AFBtfC9C_blog.html">allowing direct shipping of wine to Maryland consumers</a> (and more recently about <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2011-04-07/news/bs-ho-council-wineries-vote-20110404_1_winery-legislation-preservation-parcels-agricultural-land">siting wineries within Howard County</a>), and I’ve blogged about <a href="/2011/03/12/maryland-says-no-dtc-genetic-testing-for-you/">Maryland restrictions on direct-to-consumer genetic testing</a>.  These may seem like relatively trivial issues of interest only to a few (and relatively privileged) Marylanders, but many business activities can be portrayed as trivial in the grand scheme of things and yet still help contribute to overall prosperity of our community.  And in these particular examples what may seem on the surface like relatively benign paternalism (“We’re just trying to prevent minors from getting access to alcohol” or “We’re concerned about naïve people misinterpreting these tests”) masks special interests (liquor wholesalers or doctors) using government to help maintain their economic positions against perceived competitors.</p>
<p>I’ll close by looking elsewhere in the world to note that liberty isn’t necessarily as simple as it seems, no matter your political persuasion.  For example, country A has a very favorable business climate, with a significantly lower corporate tax rate than the US, no government-mandated minimum wage, and a flexible regulatory framework hailed by a major US conservative think tank as “highly conducive to innovation and productivity growth.”  Surely, a progressive might say, this country’s people are at the mercy of rapacious corporations bent on exploiting their workers.  On the other hand, country B has one of the highest tax burdens in the world, with the government talking over half of GDP to fund an extensive set of social services.  Surely, a conservative might say, this is an example of socialism run amok, with the inevitable consequence being a unproductive and inefficient economy in which no sane capitalist would dare to invest.</p>
<p>As it turns out, country A and country B are one and the same country, namely Denmark.  In Will Wilkinson’s phrase, Denmark is essentially a “<a href="http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/02/22/the-laissez-faire-welfare-state/">laissez faire welfare state</a>” that combines a relatively light regulatory framework with generous social benefits in terms of health care, social security, education, and so on.  As <a href="http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2009/02/23/the-possibility-of-big-and-free/">Wilkinson also notes</a>, that means that Denmark scores very high on scorecards like the Heritage Foundation’s <a href="http://www.heritage.org/Index/">economic freedom index</a>; in fact, in the <a href="http://www.heritage.org/index/topten">latest such ranking</a> for 2011 <a href="http://www.heritage.org/index/country/Denmark">Denmark</a> actually ranked higher than the <a href="http://www.heritage.org/index/country/UnitedStates">United States</a>, despite being penalized in the rankings due to its high tax burden and level of government spending.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>One reason Denmark can get away with less regulation of businesses is that issues that in the US get regulated by government (like the minimum wage) are handled in Denmark via negotiation between employers (or associations of employers in particular industries) and employee associations (i.e., unions).  (Over three quarters of Danish workers belong in such associations.) <a href="http://www.europe-cities.com/en/633/denmark/health/">Universal health care</a> not tied to employment also increases labor mobility, and a government-funded <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_in_Denmark">education system</a> (tuition-free to students) produces a relatively well-educated work force.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Now, is the experience of Denmark replicable in the United States?  I doubt it, mainly because the heterogeneous nature of the United States (ethnically and otherwise) makes it difficult to impossible to sustain a nationwide consensus for a generous and universal social safety net.  (See <a href="/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-2/">my discussion of Robert Putnam’s research</a>.)  However I think the example of Denmark does call into question a facile identification of liberty solely with low taxes and small government.  Although the US prides itself (and rightly so) in being a traditional beacon of freedom to the world, the world may yet have a thing or two to teach the US about freedom.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>By the way, <a href="http://www.heritage.org/index/country/Canada">Canada</a> scored significantly higher in the latest index than the United States, and had a ranking for government spending levels only slightly worse than that of the US.  So much for the myth of “our socialist neighbor.”&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>For an interesting overview of labor laws and regulation in Denmark see “<a href="https://www.workindenmark.dk/Find+information/Til+arbejdstagere/Naar+du+arbejder+i+Danmark/%7E/media/AMS/Dokumenter/zAndet/workingindk_english.ashx">Working in Denmark</a>” [PDF].  Note also that <a href="http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/eiro/2006/01/feature/dk0601104f.htm">“closed shop” agreements are now illegal in Denmark</a> as a result of an EU ruling.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Reimagining Columbia’s village centers for the 21st century</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/04/11/reimagining-columbias-village-centers-for-the-21st-century/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 11 Apr 2011 19:47:36 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/04/11/reimagining-columbias-village-centers-for-the-21st-century/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Yesterday &lt;a href=&#34;http://hococonnect.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;HoCo Connect&lt;/a&gt; posted an interesting &lt;a href=&#34;http://hococonnect.blogspot.com/2011/04/are-village-centers-still-relevant.html&#34;&gt;article on whether Columbia’s village centers are still relevant&lt;/a&gt;, including a look back at the original village center vision as laid out by Jim Rouse and others.  I was moved in response to offer my own two cents on the village center issue.  So without further ado, my thoughts:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;We need to think of village centers as resources for Howard County as a whole&lt;/strong&gt;, and not just for the Columbia village in which they’re situated.  I don’t happen to live in Columbia, and hence my opinion would be considered somewhat irrelevant in the context in which the village centers were created.  However I think the original village center vision is not sustainable, at least not as the main function of a center.  Village residents no longer see their center as a primary destination, instead driving by it on the way to the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.themallincolumbia.com/&#34;&gt;Mall in Columbia&lt;/a&gt;, big box developments like &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.gatewayoverlook.com/&#34;&gt;Gateway Overlook&lt;/a&gt;, or other places scattered around Columbia and the county (e.g., off Dobbin Road).  This means that village centers can survive (let alone thrive) only if they can become major destinations for others elsewhere in Columbia and in the county at large.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday <a href="http://hococonnect.blogspot.com/">HoCo Connect</a> posted an interesting <a href="http://hococonnect.blogspot.com/2011/04/are-village-centers-still-relevant.html">article on whether Columbia’s village centers are still relevant</a>, including a look back at the original village center vision as laid out by Jim Rouse and others.  I was moved in response to offer my own two cents on the village center issue.  So without further ado, my thoughts:</p>
<p><strong>We need to think of village centers as resources for Howard County as a whole</strong>, and not just for the Columbia village in which they’re situated.  I don’t happen to live in Columbia, and hence my opinion would be considered somewhat irrelevant in the context in which the village centers were created.  However I think the original village center vision is not sustainable, at least not as the main function of a center.  Village residents no longer see their center as a primary destination, instead driving by it on the way to the <a href="http://www.themallincolumbia.com/">Mall in Columbia</a>, big box developments like <a href="http://www.gatewayoverlook.com/">Gateway Overlook</a>, or other places scattered around Columbia and the county (e.g., off Dobbin Road).  This means that village centers can survive (let alone thrive) only if they can become major destinations for others elsewhere in Columbia and in the county at large.</p>
<p>How to do that?  <strong>The key to making village centers attractive destinations is specialization and concentration ot related uses and establishments to produce critical mass.</strong> The centers cannot compete with the Mall in terms of overall diversity of establishments, they cannot compete with the big box developments in terms of scale (including access to “category-killer” national chains), and they cannot compete in “discoverability” with strip centers and standalone establishments located on major roads.  Their only hope of competing is to each specialize in attracting a certain type of customer and providing those customers a complete and exciting experience they can’t find anywhere else.</p>
<p>They’d still be “village centers,” but the “villages” they would serve would be extended communities of people with common interests, whether they live in Columbia, the rest of Howard County, or even in nearby areas in adjacent counties.  The general idea is to discard the traditional role of providing essential services to local residents (throw out the tired grocery + dry cleaner + bagel place + ethnic takeout template), serve very specialized but potentially lucrative niches that the Mall and the big box centers aren’t able to address, and neutralize the discoverability advantage of strip centers elsewhere in the county (if you’re part of a center’s intended “community” you’ll already know that it exists and where it is, whether through social media or plain old word of mouth).</p>
<p>For at least a select few, <strong>a village center shouldn’t be just a place to go, it should be a place to live and work as well.</strong> If the village center experience is compelling enough you’ll want to be there after closing hours and make it your home.  You might even choose to work there, either in one of the main establishments or in a complementary business.</p>
<p>To avoid NIMBY backlash, <strong>village center uses must be compatible with the surrounding villages.</strong> Thus, for example, there’s no point in trying to make a village center into a hub for nightlife and entertainment.  Such a use is much more appropriate for Columbia Town Center, where it can be isolated from predominantly residential neighborhoods and integrated with existing resources like the Mall in Columbia and <a href="http://www.merriweathermusic.com/">Merriweather Post Pavilion</a>.  However I also think village centers shouldn’t be places where everything shuts down at 6 pm or even at 9 pm; a thriving village center should be going strong at 11 pm or midnight, with some places even open 24 hours.</p>
<p>(Having people live in the centers may actually help here, since if they’re part of the “community of interest” that the center is intended for then they’ll quite likely support appropriate late-night or even all-hours establishments serving that community, and that support would help counter any complaints from village residents further away from the centers.)</p>
<p>Finally, if we want village centers not only to survive but to thrive, <strong>village centers should be subsidized and supported by both the Columbia Association and the Howard County government where necessary and appropriate.</strong> Such support could be in the form of subsidized rent or zoning variances for particular uses, or it could be through using the centers for CA or Howard County facilities compatible with each center’s specialization.  The goal would be to establish enough of a critical mass in each village center that further development could proceed naturally as the center attracted compatible businesses and other establishments wanting access to that center’s “community.”</p>
<p>What sort of specialty village centers might make sense?  Here are some off-the-cuff ideas for future village centers, with informal names for each.  I’ve left the proposed locations open, but those familiar with the current village centers can imagine some of them fitting into these schemes based on their current uses and existing facilities.  Also, note that some of these proposed centers may not include a grocery or any other of the amenities traditionally associated with Columbia village centers.</p>
<p><strong>Nerd Heaven.</strong> This center would have everything the geeky and (at least potentially) entrepreneurial Howard County resident might want.  It would be organized around a complex that included an <a href="http://www.hceda.org/thecenter/neotech.aspx">incubator for high-tech startups</a>, a combined coffee house and <a href="http://beehivebaltimore.org/">Beehive Baltimore</a>-style <a href="http://wiki.coworking.info/w/page/16583831/FrontPage">coworking space</a>, a <a href="http://hackerspaces.org/wiki/Hackerspaces">hackerspace</a> like <a href="http://baltimorenode.org/">Baltimore Node</a>, and perhaps a modest public space suitable for holding <a href="http://ignitebaltimore.com/">Ignite</a>-like presentations or <a href="http://hackasaurus.org/">Hackasaurus</a>-style educational sessions.  Complementary businesses and other uses could include a 24-hour nerd-friendly ethnic restaurant, a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PC_bang">PC bang</a>, a copy shop, a comics and (board) gaming store, a <a href="http://www.gamestop.com/">GameStop</a>-style video game store, a <a href="http://www.radioshack.com/">Radio Shack</a>-like store selling hardware components, lawyers and CPAs specializing in small to mid-size businesses, a math and reading tutoring center, and possibly a home brewing store, chess club and a small <a href="http://www.exploratorium.edu/">Exploratorium</a>-style science museum.</p>
<p><strong>Global Village Center.</strong> Designed to inspire a steady stream of <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/">HowChow</a> posts, this center would be anchored by a <a href="http://www.lotteplaza.com/branch/branch.php?Id=32&amp;lan=ENG">Lotte</a>- or <a href="http://www.hmart.com/company_new/shop_store.asp?store_code=CTV">H Mart</a>-style ethnic supermarket, and would also include various smaller specialty groceries for particular cuisines, a diverse set of sit-down ethnic restaurants, a set of outdoor food carts (weather permitting), and possibly a farmers market.  Complementary businesses and other uses could include any of the kinds of establishments you find in current ethnic centers (e.g., like those along Route 40 serving the Korean-American community), as well as county, CA, or nonprofit facilities designed to serve foreign-born Howard County residents.</p>
<p><strong>Holistic Howard.</strong> Organized around a natural foods grocery and a day spa, this center would cater to all your “wellness” needs.  Complementary businesses and other uses might include a fitness and yoga center, one or more vegetarian or vegan restaurants, a funky clothing, accessory, or jewelry store, massage therapists, acupuncturists, aromatherapists, and related practitioners, and possibly a future satellite facility of the <a href="http://www.tai.edu/">Tai Sophia Institute</a>.</p>
<p><strong>The Artistic Complex.</strong> This center would be focused on the production, practice, and (to a limited extent) performance of art in its various forms.  Anchored by a CA or Howard County art center along with art galleries and studio spaces (including live/work spaces), its complementary businesses and other uses could include a store for artist’s supplies, a <a href="http://www.thepotterystop.com/index_ellicott.html">Pottery Stop</a>-like store for home-made crafts (with attached coffee shop?), a framing shop, architects’ and interior decorators’ offices, a <a href="http://www.dwr.com/">Design Within Reach</a>-style furniture and design store, small music and/or dance schools, a writing center, a small children’s theater, and a specialty bookstore (carrying the sorts of art and design books best equipped to survive the ebook revolution).</p>
<p>Two final notes: First, this is a long-term vision.  I don’t expect specialized centers like the above to appear full-blown in five years, or even in ten or fifteen years.  But if this is a viable vision for Columbia’s village centers (and that’s a question for better minds than mine) then now is the time to begin laying the groundwork for it, just as the groundwork was laid for the long-term development of Columbia Town Center.</p>
<p>Second, I’ve presented only four ideas, not enough to cover all current village centers.  Some village centers (like River Hill) will thrive regardless, and don’t really need reimagining, while others (I won’t name names) may not be sustainable in any form and should be considered for redevelopment as offices or residences.  Finally, there may be other extended “villages” that could use their own center&mdash;what would you like to see?</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-001"><a href="http://rocketpoweredbutterfly.com" title="tjmayotte@gmail.com">TeeJay</a> - 2011-04-12 17:46</h4>
<p>I love this idea. Keeping with the recent &ldquo;8 to 80&rdquo; buzzword being floated around, a center could certainly be aimed at Seniors (older-skewing &ldquo;quiet&rdquo; library, health clinic, coffee shop/deli) or young parents (child care center, gymboree type environment, toddler-friendly library like Storyville, toddler-friend restaurant, or better yet, child care provided in a meeting space). I&rsquo;m not sure of the feasibility of this concept, but my ten minutes of reflection say this is the way to go.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-002"><a href="http://rocketpoweredbutterfly.com" title="tjmayotte@gmail.com">TeeJay</a> - 2011-04-12 17:47</h4>
<p>Full disclosure: I&rsquo;m also a non-Columbia resident, and a recently transplant to boot.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-12 18:25</h4>
<p>TeeJay: Thanks for stopping by. I think the general point is that once we stop thinking of village centers as having to serve an actual Columbia village first and foremost, lots of possibilities arise, among which I think both of yours are good ones to think about. I think the key is finding specializations for each center that make sense and can be economically viable with minimal subsidization.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-004"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2011-04-13 02:55</h4>
<p>Nerd (or Geek, preferably) Heaven? Count me in &hellip; at least to be a hanger-on-er. Mr. Hecker, yet again, a most thoughtful and interesting post.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-005">JL (jonlemich@gmail.com) - 2011-04-13 14:36</h4>
<p>&ldquo;throw out the tired grocery + dry cleaner + bagel place + ethnic takeout template&rdquo; Here&rsquo;s what I want within walking distance to my house, that I would use often: Grocery store Liquor store Pizza/Subs/Ethnic takeout (Chain acceptable, indie preferred) Cafe with outdoor seating (Starbucks acceptable, indie preferred) 24hr convenience mart (chain store preferred) Post office annex or UPS or fed/ex store or Kinkos Bar Bank branch or at least a few choices of ATMs Gas station Things people might like (but not me): Storefront ministry Dry cleaners Daycare center These are all the kinds of places that people would typically choose a nearby one over a longer drive. The ONLY thing village centers have going for them is their proximity to residences. A themed center would necessarily alienate/exclude the majority of the nearby residents. Let&rsquo;s say you put a kids/parents-themed center in Owen Brown. Bye bye liquor store, hello daycare center. Bye bye Sonomas, hello Chuck-E-Cheese. Bye bye cleaners, hello Storeyville. Owen Brown, like most of Columbia, is high on households with kids&hellip; But not more than 40% Would I hike my child to Owen Brown for those services? Yes. But I would hike him to the same destinations anywhere. The fact that it&rsquo;s a village center is irrelevant. Whereas my Owen Brown friends without kids would be bummed to see Sonomas etc. go.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-006">JL (jonlemich@gmail.com) - 2011-04-13 15:02</h4>
<p>More thoughts: Village centers are suffering under poor examples of the aforementioned local services, not a lack of a theme. I&rsquo;ve been to too many bad bars that can&rsquo;t decide whether they&rsquo;re a family restaurant or a local booze and party destination. Solution: Every VC around has space for two restaurants. Why not invite one raucous party bar that closes at 2am and one quiet family-fun Americana restaurant that has highchairs and a kids menu and closes at 10:30pm? Some of the liquor stores are being out-competed by big-box Corridor and trend-savvy small shops like Perfect Pour. Solution: Let the market do its job. Invite finewine.com over, or World Market. Some of the local liquor stores do just fine. No casual cafes with comfy seating. Have you noticed that? Luna Bella comes close, I suppose. Sort of. Bagel Bin&rsquo;s problem was always cramped space. I would take Starbucks, Potbelly, Dunkin&rsquo;, or Einstein Bro.s in my VC if they could provide a comfy atmosphere and outdoor seating. No 7-11s, like at all. I think the Royal Farms at 175/108 probably makes a killing. All the VC convenience stores have is crappy slurpee knock-offs and overpriced everything (even compared to Royal Farms). These would be frequent destinations for the local teens and shift workers (Why aren&rsquo;t there *several* 24hr places competing for business by the hospital?). More fast food wouldn&rsquo;t hurt the VCs. Three of our VCs have McDonalds, and a few more have something else; and I never see them hurting for business. Stevens Forest is totally devoid of a fast food chain. I think it might bring some more business around. Why do we need so many dry cleaners? Seriously, are they government subsidized or something? And why do people even use most of these cleaners? Do they? I&rsquo;ve tried four of them around me and they all charged me more than Zips.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-007">JL (jonlemich@gmail.com) - 2011-04-13 15:14</h4>
<p>Final comment! I like your final point about the CA subsidy. If they want to make VCs work, they have to help them out. But subsidies should come with strings attached. You can&rsquo;t subsidize the rent at the cafe, and have them charge $9 for a BLT sandwich, etc.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-008"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2011-04-13 18:39</h4>
<p>I am not the subject matter expert here, but I do know that the CA-as-landlord concept of the village centers (and therefore, some benevolent subsidizer) has changed in the last decade or so. The commercial property of the village centers is owned by commercial entities, e.g. Kimco. In the village centers (most of them, I think &ndash; maybe Owen Brown is the exception) there is property in each of them that is community association property, e.g. where Slayton House is located in WL. And there is CA-owned and -managed open space near/abutting most/all of the village centers. (Again, I&rsquo;m not the SME here, so correct me or fill in the bits if I got this wrong.)</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-009"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-13 22:56</h4>
<p>JL: Thanks for stopping by and commenting. If your vision of a village center is economically viable, then more power to it. Certainly centers like River Hill appear to be thriving. However I think the key question is whether groceries are going to be viable anchors for all of the village centers going forward, especially as Wegman&rsquo;s and other come to town. Wilde Lake has already lost its &ldquo;traditional&rdquo; grocery (David&rsquo;s Natural Market apparently not counting as a real grocery, at least to some), and as I understand it the future of the Safeway at Long Reach Village Center is uncertain. So if a center loses its grocery, and has no real hope of attracting another, what happens then? One path is simply to shrink the (commercial) ambitions for the center: Redevelop part of it as something else, retain a small retail component that can service on local custom, and maybe put in some noncommercial facilities as HoCo Connect suggests. Another path is to rethink what village centers are for. That&rsquo;s what I was attempting to do.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-010"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-13 23:04</h4>
<p>JL: I think the question is, can a village center traditionally envisioned (i.e., as a resource primarily for nearby residents) actually support two restaurants (family + bar-oriented) + a coffee shop + plus a high-end liquor/wine store, and so on? For example, take the Frisco Grille and Tap Room, which recently relocated to a space on Dobbin Road that by all accounts is not ideal, especially with respect to parking? Why didn&rsquo;t Frisco Grille relocate to a village center like Wilde Lake where there&rsquo;s plenty of parking? And the same question exists for other establishments that are in Columbia but not in village centers.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-011"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-13 23:16</h4>
<p>JL: With all due respect, why not? Let&rsquo;s take the cafe as an example, and let&rsquo;s assume it&rsquo;s paying market-rate rent. The cafe&rsquo;s going to want to charge prices equivalent to comparable establishments elsewhere &ndash; it&rsquo;s providing equivalent value in terms of its food&rsquo;s appeal, and has a right to charge what the market will bear and realize the profit therefrom. Now suppose that locating this cafe in a village center isn&rsquo;t economically viable, because the traffic is lower and the cafe can&rsquo;t realize as much profit as in another location, and maybe can&rsquo;t even cover its costs. So then CA or Howard County provides a rent subsidy to enable the cafe to locate in a village center. Having done that, why demand that the cafe charge below-market prices? That just makes the cafe less profitable than it otherwise would be, and if CA or Howard County wanted the cafe to stay in a village center they&rsquo;d have to increase the rent subsidy beyond what it otherwise would be. Why should taxpayers take on that extra burden so that residents of that village can have cheaper-than-market sandwiches?</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-012"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-14 01:59</h4>
<p>Jessie: You are correct that Kimco is in the driver&rsquo;s seat as the landlord of the village centers (except for Owen Brown). My point is this: Left to its devices Kimco will end up doing whatever it has to do to realize the commercial value of the centers, including cutting back on retail uses as much as they can get away with in terms of zoning approval. My question is, can Kimco do better in terms of creating vibrant village centers, with the support and cooperation of CA and Howard County? One thing I&rsquo;ve always noted about Howard County is the lack of real &ldquo;districts&rdquo;, in the sense of places that have a concentration of like uses and are an attraction in of and itself &ndash; downtown Ellicott City is the major exception here. I&rsquo;d like to see more of that.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-013"><a href="http://www.vinotrip.com" title="kircher.matthew@gmail.com">Matt Kircher</a> - 2011-04-14 03:41</h4>
<p>Really enjoying the conversation we&rsquo;re all having about the village centers. Seems that nothing gets Columbia residents&rsquo; attention more than the comings and goings of the local VC scene. I actually have to take some fault with the basic premise of both this and the HoCo Connect piece that VCs have lost viability because of our ongoing habit of driving to destination shopping centers in the vein of Columbia Crossing or Gateway Overlook. I believe that the great American love affair with the automobile that drove the rise of suburbs and shopping malls isn&rsquo;t necessarily destined to continue in perpetuity. As the pendulum swings back toward favoring locally accessible retail, the original VC concept seems well positioned to meet the needs of communities in a sustainable way. Now, I realize this sounds far fetched, but hear me out. I don&rsquo;t think it&rsquo;s a coincidence that trends in the census data showing a rise in affluent, young residents in urban areas (DC is a prime example) between 2000 and 2010 parallels the rise of the &ldquo;green&rdquo; movement and the coming of age of Gen Y. At the same time, I believe the rate of vehicle ownership among adults under 30 has declined (wish I could cite something here), which to me suggests that this generation is generally less interested in driving. The car no longer represents freedom, as it did to generations past, but instead the debt of car payments, sitting in gridlock traffic, and ever-rising gas prices. Plus, Gen Y isn&rsquo;t as afraid of public transit, perhaps as a result of living in communities with an increasing number of options since the 80s. Like &ldquo;digital natives&rdquo;, more of us are &ldquo;transit natives&rdquo;, introduced to busses or subways as a way of getting to/from campus, first jobs, etc. My personal experience as a mid-20s Columbia resident (Kings Contrivance) is that the village center model offers a welcome respite from the obligatory mall or shopping center trip. I can ride my bike there, aided by Columbia&rsquo;s excellent path system, and buy smaller lots of groceries more regularly, offering a greater variety of fresh produce for a healthier diet. I can go to the bar without having to worry about driving home (at least I could, before Michael&rsquo;s Pub closed). In fact, the biggest risk to the VC model as I see it is the lack of affordable housing options in Howard County for people in their mid-20s. Not that DC housing is more affordable, but you have to consider the related costs of living in a suburb, namely the need for multiple cars per family with long commutes to those urban job centers. If anything, I believe VCs should move to add office space and court professional-level employers, allowing residents a viable alternative to the major urban centers as a place to live, work and play. That would make the price tag of a $300,000 town house a little easier to swallow for early career professionals. Frank, if I&rsquo;m not careful, one of these days you&rsquo;re going to inspire me to start a HoCo-focused blog of my own&hellip; Cheers, Matt</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-014"><a href="http://www.time2rethink.com" title="raytri3@gmail.com">Raymond</a> - 2011-04-14 05:13</h4>
<p>Another anchor store dies&hellip; hopefully the VC will live on. I heard word today that the Long Reach SafeWay store, is closing for good in June (it was only a matter of time once their pharmacey closed - the writing was on the wall). With that, as a Long Reach resident (all my properties are in LR), I must agree with you (on almost everything)that it is time for the VC to &ldquo;freshen up&rdquo; a bit. The concept of a grocery store at every VC made sense 20-25 years ago when Columbia was still being built and you didn&rsquo;t have fifteen other choices close by but now with all the competition that model needs to die. However the VC should live on. I would like to see them take on a more historical Ellicott City approach small specialised stores/resturants - not chains. Give me a little farmers market where I can by fresh produce, a nice little resturant to eat in that I wont find anywhere else, a nice place to socialize, exercise, and work and I and many others would once again flock to the VCs (loved the idea of the NERD village too I would be there). The problem is getting these things to happen. We need opportunities to speak with the owners of the VCs and form joint planning ventures so that the ideas of the community can be addessed and not just those of big corporation trying to make money. I agree that The CA can assist us in our endeavours but I disagree with you when you say they should subsidize the VC&rsquo;s - The CA can&rsquo;t even decide on a yearly basis if they have budget for towels or not (not to digress) if we add them to the mix they are liable to mess it up even worse (they would probably outsource the NERD VC and waste millions on it&hellip; OK I am digressing again, sorry).</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-015">JD Smith (jdsmith51@verizon.net) - 2011-04-14 18:58</h4>
<p>I have to agree with Matt. I was initially taken with Hecker&rsquo;s idea of niche centers, and although I still think some aspects have merit, the overall concept encourages more auto use. Perhaps if there were an adequate low energy public transportation system or bike path system that connected all the centers, it would be more viable I believe CA is currently studying that very possibility.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-016"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-15 00:54</h4>
<p>Matt, thanks for stopping by, and thanks to you and all the other commenters for taking so much time to reply in depth. To go in reverse, I&rsquo;m absolutely in agreement on the desirability of having both office and residential uses in village centers. Among other things, that&rsquo;s why I thought would make sense for Howard County to put its incubator facility into a village center instead of sticking it in an office park somewhere. On the question of future lower automobile use, you may well be right; I have no crystal ball there.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-017"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-15 00:57</h4>
<p>Raymond: Thanks for your comment. In terms of subsidization, I think what would make the most sense would be for either CA or Howard County to take space within a village center for CA or HoCo functions that were contemplated in any case. Thus, for example, if people thought a &ldquo;nerd VC&rdquo; made sense then I would expect to see HoCo consider locating a startup incubator there instead of putting it in some random office park.</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-018"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-15 00:59</h4>
<p>JD Smith: Thanks for stopping by. Some sort of convenient transit system between village centers would indeed strengthen the case for having niche centers; I think this would counter to some degree Matt&rsquo;s concern about increasing automobile use. P.S. Feel free to call me Frank; nobody I know of calls me &ldquo;Hecker&rdquo; :-)</p>
<h4 id="a50f8c0d-019"><a href="http://www.time2rethink.com" title="raytri3@gmail.com">Raymond</a> - 2011-04-26 04:43</h4>
<p>I see your point; however, I still think the best thing CA can do is get out of the way and let good old fashion greed take over. If these VC owners want to make $$ they will wnat to make improvements. If they make improvements the companies will come and thus the $$ unless CA gets in the way and slows things down.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Bleeding heart libertarians</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/03/22/bleeding-heart-libertarians/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 22 Mar 2011 23:30:54 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/03/22/bleeding-heart-libertarians/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;For those of you who haven’t heard, the Howard County local blogosphere has a new entrant, as Corey Andrews has started a new “&lt;a href=&#34;http://hocolibertarian.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;HoCoLibertarian&lt;/a&gt;” blog, “to get a foot in the door for libertarians and libertarian-leaning conservatives in Howard County.” (Note that Andrews is also planning to run for the Board of Education in 2012; for more information see his &lt;a href=&#34;http://andrewsforboe.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;campaign blog&lt;/a&gt;.)  To help welcome his new blog I’m going to devote this blog post to libertarians, more specifically to &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/&#34;&gt;Bleeding Heart Libertarians&lt;/a&gt;, a great new group blog I’ve been following avidly (and occasionally commenting on).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those of you who haven’t heard, the Howard County local blogosphere has a new entrant, as Corey Andrews has started a new “<a href="http://hocolibertarian.blogspot.com/">HoCoLibertarian</a>” blog, “to get a foot in the door for libertarians and libertarian-leaning conservatives in Howard County.” (Note that Andrews is also planning to run for the Board of Education in 2012; for more information see his <a href="http://andrewsforboe.blogspot.com/">campaign blog</a>.)  To help welcome his new blog I’m going to devote this blog post to libertarians, more specifically to <a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/">Bleeding Heart Libertarians</a>, a great new group blog I’ve been following avidly (and occasionally commenting on).</p>
<p>I happen to be a life-long Democrat.  Why would I be interested in libertarianism?  My casual interest goes back a ways to my space activist days (when I encountered a lot of libertarians) and continued through my time working for Silicon Valley IT companies (yet more libertarians) and working in the free and open source software space (ditto).  However I’ve been paying more attention to libertarian ideas lately for three reasons:</p>
<ul>
<li>First, I’m with <a href="http://globlogization.wikistrat.com/bio/">Thomas P. M. Barnett</a> and others in thinking that the key to future US and world security is growing the middle class in developing countries and integrating more and more countries into the global economy.  That means that spurring economic growth around the world is critical, and I think that’s best done through free markets that can drive technological and business innovation and free trade that can spread the benefits of such innovation around the world.</li>
<li>Second, I believe that recent years have demonstrated the power and relevance of large-scale Internet-enabled voluntary collective action, as seen in Wikipedia, the Linux and Mozilla projects, and so on.  I think such activities are valuable and should be encouraged, and to do so I think we need to think outside the “government vs. the market” box our political dialogue is often stuck in.</li>
<li>Finally, I believe that at least in developed countries we’ve reached the limit of how big government can be.  Excessive public debts, entitlement costs, and high defense spending (at least in the US) are going to make it harder for government to fulfill the key functions I believe it has: providing <a href="/2010/09/25/why-government-public-goods/">public goods</a> (beyond just defense), working with market actors and civil society to create the “rulesets” needed for the smooth functioning of an advanced society, and (where it makes sense) helping make it possible for all people to fulfill their potential within such a society.  That means every dollar of government discretionary spending has to be spent well, and all government efforts need to complement and not attempt to replace the free market and civil society.</li>
</ul>
<p>This doesn’t mean that I’m now a libertarian, or planning to become one anytime soon.  Most notably, I don’t share core beliefs held by many doctrinaire libertarians, such that taxation is theft and that a democratically-elected government is morally equivalent to an organized criminal enterprise.  However I don’t think it’s necessary to buy into the stereotypical libertarian belief set to find many libertarian ideas worth considering as a basis for public policy.</p>
<p>It’s also true that not all libertarians fit the stereotype.  This has always been true, but it’s become more apparent in recent years, as demonstrated in the writings of Brink Lindsey (of “<a href="http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6800">liberaltarian</a>” fame), <a href="http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/about/">Will Wilkinson</a>, and others.  And that brings us back to the Bleeding Heart Libertarians blog (or BHL, as its fans fondly refer to it).  As <a href="http://home.sandiego.edu/~mzwolinski/">Matt Zwolinski</a> wrote in the f<a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2011/03/bleeding-heart-libertarianism.html">irst post</a>,</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I’ve created this blog as a forum for academic philosophers who are attracted both to libertarianism and to ideals of social or distributive justice.  What we have in common on this blog is an appreciation for market mechanisms, for voluntary social cooperation, for property rights, and for individual liberty.  But we appreciate those things, in large part, because of the way they contribute to important human goods&mdash;and especially the way in which they allow some of society’s most vulnerable members to realize those goods.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>That’s a sentiment I can get behind, hence my interest in BHL.  The BHL bloggers have been very active since the blog began less than three weeks ago, and it’s hard to pick favorites.  However here are some personal highlights from my reading thus far:</p>
<ul>
<li>“<a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2011/03/neoclassical-liberalism-how-im-not-a-libertarian.html">Neoclassical Liberalism: How I’m Not a Libertarian</a>” and “<a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2011/03/neoclassical-liberalism-vs-high-liberalism.html#more">Neoclassical Liberalism vs High Liberalism</a>,” by <a href="http://www.jasonfbrennan.com/">Jason Brennan</a>.  Historically the term “liberal” didn’t mean what most people mean by it today, but rather meant someone who is “committed to the ideal of limited government and liberty of individuals including freedom of religion, speech, press, assembly, and free markets” (to quote <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_liberalism">Wikipedia</a>).  In this spirit Brennan and others are promoting “neoclassical liberalism”: “Neoclassical liberals combine a classical liberal commitment to economic liberty with a modern or high liberal commitment to social justice.  . . .  They think the economic liberties share the same high status as the other liberties.  However, neoclassical liberals also believe that this need not come at the expense of social justice.” (“High liberals” is Brennan’s term for “liberals” in the common sense used today.)  This was an interesting post for me because neoclassical liberalism is probably closest to my own position as it’s evolved over the years.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2011/03/exploitation-and-social-justice.html">Exploitation and Social Justice</a>” by Matt Zwolinski.  A good discussion of the moral issues around sweatshops, minimum wage laws, and other cases where many libertarians argue that the state would better help the poor by taking a <em>laissez faire</em> attitude: “Mutually beneficial exploitation is often something legal regimes should tolerate, and this point counts in favor of the classical liberal vision of the state and against the recommendations often made by those on the left.  But whether a transaction counts as ‘harmful’ or ‘mutually beneficial’ depends on what we take as the baseline.  . . .  One point that those on the left have often made, and which classical liberals ought to take much more seriously, is that capitalist systems as they actually exist . . .  have often rigged the baseline to the detriment of labor and to the advantage of capital.  It will not do to argue that transactions in a free market are always mutually beneficial and therefore non-exploitative.”</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2011/03/overlapping-consensus-libertarianism-or-why-convergence-arguments-are-cool.html">Overlapping Consensus Libertarianism or Why Convergence Arguments Are Cool</a>” by <a href="http://philosophy.wvu.edu/faculty_staff/daniel_shapiro">Daniel Shapiro</a>.  A discussion of how best to gain support for libertarian policies: “Rather than looking for one or the best moral or political theory, [ground] libertarianism by showing it is compatible with a variety of reasonable approaches.  . . .  Put all your effort into showing that one kind of political theory is the correct view, and supports certain principles or institutions, then if it turns out your theory is mistaken, you have no support for your principles or the institutions you support.  But if your principles or institutions are supported by a wide variety of political theories or perspectives then you avoid this problem.”  I like this approach, because I’ve always been annoyed by what I call “I’ll prove it to you” libertarians who use logical deduction from self-selected axioms to try to convince you that libertarianism is the only choice open to the truly rational person.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2011/03/what-you-wish-they-would-read.html">What You Wish They Would Read</a>” by Matt Zwolinski.  Lots of great suggestions for libertarian writings that (modern) liberals should read, and vice versa.</li>
<li>“<a href="http://www.bleedingheartlibertarians.com/2011/03/fairnessland-and-economic-growth.html">Fairnessland and Economic Growth</a>” by Jason Brennan.  A thought experiment to provoke thinking about questions around income inequality and the effects of economic growth.  “Suppose it turned out, empirically, that improving the income level of the poor <em>at any given time</em> by equalizing incomes eventually leads to the poor in that society having less than they otherwise would have had under a less equal but faster growing scheme.  If so, which is preferable, all other things equal?  A. Equalize things now so that the poor now do much better.  B. Allow for growth so that the poor in the future do much better.”</li>
</ul>
<p>I could go on quoting from BHL for a while, but I’ll stop here.  The bottom line is that whether you call yourself a “liberal” or a “libertarian,” if you’re not content simply to parrot the stereotypical political arguments that go with those labels then you absolutely need to be reading this blog.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="eba2a8b1-003"><a href="http://rocketpoweredbutterfly.com" title="tjmayotte@gmail.com">TeeJay</a> - 2011-03-23 12:15</h4>
<p>Fantastic post, thanks for the info. I can feel my workday efficiency dwindling as I fall down the BHL rabbit hole. Appreciate the recommendation and the additional insight!</p>
<h4 id="eba2a8b1-005"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-03-23 12:21</h4>
<p>Glad you like the recommendation. Note that it&rsquo;s even more of a time-sink because the comments are also well worth reading.</p>
<h4 id="eba2a8b1-006">JL (jonlemich@gmail.com) - 2011-03-23 16:41</h4>
<p>As a 30-something, in my formative years I got to watch big corporations globalize the stuffing out of the rust belt and watch NAFTA soak the Northern half of Mexico in sweatshop labor and hyperviolent, gang-infested poverty. If you weren&rsquo;t in IT, you would see all the middle-class jobs being free traded right out of the developed world. But maybe you will see it; about four years ago, they started outsourcing help desk and IT support. It won&rsquo;t be long before the code monkey jobs most HoCo techies cut their teeth on are all shipped overseas where labor is cheaper. Howard County is an example of the fruits of neo-mercantilism. We went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq to protect American economic interests, and Libya now too. All that war meant tons of money for the HoCo LoCo defense contractors that made Columbia and EC (plus AA Co) the #2 city to live in. I don&rsquo;t mean to sound like I&rsquo;m defending the Bush wars or neo-mercantilism, because I&rsquo;m not: As became evident in the last 8 years, when corporations get freedom, they use it to influence government spending and policy and write the regulations that benefit them and hurt the citizen (e.g. DMCA, Citizens United, Haliburton contracts, Too Big To Fail) &ndash; the &ldquo;combination&rdquo; Adam Smith warned about in Wealth of Nations. I&rsquo;m all in favor of social liberties, but free trade tends to stop being free pretty quickly as corporations merge and devour each other (Microsoft, Bank of America, Comcast, AT&amp;T) and write their own rules.</p>
<h4 id="eba2a8b1-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-03-23 23:37</h4>
<p>JL: I don&rsquo;t have time to write a point-by-point response, but a libertarian writing from a libertarian point of view (especially a BHL-style libertarian) would likely argue that a lot of the ills you point to are not caused by free markets and free trade per se, but rather are a function of corporate capture of government, military spending beyond that justified by national self-defense, and prohibitionist policies (i.e., the &ldquo;war on drugs&rdquo; and the problems it causes in countries like Mexico). The issue of US competitiveness and jobs moving overseas is a real one. My personal bet is that in the long run having a growing middle class in countries like India, China, Brazil, Indonesia, etc., will be good for the US economy, expanding the market for our goods and services. However there will be a lot of short-term dislocation along the way, and that&rsquo;s where I depart from doctrinaire libertarians in seeing a positive role for government to cushion the dislocations where possible and help provide people with the capacity to succeed as the economy evolves.</p>
<h4 id="eba2a8b1-001">Bill Bissenas (billbissenas@yahoo.com) - 2011-03-30 00:02</h4>
<p>I know Corey, he&rsquo;s a frequent contributor to my facebook page. I wish him well on his blog. He&rsquo;s a bright young man who may help stop the socialism that infests Howard County.</p>
<h4 id="eba2a8b1-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-03-30 02:58</h4>
<p>Bill: Thanks for stopping by. I&rsquo;ve subscribed to Corey&rsquo;s blog and will be commenting occasionally as it makes sense.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>HoCo Rising takes on HoCo homelessness</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/03/18/hoco-rising-takes-on-hoco-homelessness/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 18 Mar 2011 23:21:39 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/03/18/hoco-rising-takes-on-hoco-homelessness/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt; has been teasing us all week about his “big announcement.”  It turned out that he’s not just raising consciousness through his blog but he’s also raising money, in this case to &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2011/03/breaking-through.html&#34;&gt;help eliminate homelessness in Howard County&lt;/a&gt;.  It’s a worthy cause, and the recipient of the funds, the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.grassrootscrisis.org/&#34;&gt;Grassroots Crisis Intervention Center&lt;/a&gt;, is a worthy organization.  I just donated $50 (which I’m proud to say put the campaign past the halfway mark on the way to the goal of raising $1,500) and I encourage you to &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.crowdrise.com/therising&#34;&gt;donate&lt;/a&gt; too if you haven’t already.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>HoCo Rising</em> has been teasing us all week about his “big announcement.”  It turned out that he’s not just raising consciousness through his blog but he’s also raising money, in this case to <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2011/03/breaking-through.html">help eliminate homelessness in Howard County</a>.  It’s a worthy cause, and the recipient of the funds, the <a href="http://www.grassrootscrisis.org/">Grassroots Crisis Intervention Center</a>, is a worthy organization.  I just donated $50 (which I’m proud to say put the campaign past the halfway mark on the way to the goal of raising $1,500) and I encourage you to <a href="http://www.crowdrise.com/therising">donate</a> too if you haven’t already.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="18d6d39f-001">HoCoRising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2011-03-19 03:26</h4>
<p>Thank you Frank!!</p>
<h4 id="18d6d39f-002"><a href="http://www.fundraisingfirms.com/community-responds-donates-to-bloggers-drive-to-end-homelessness-in-howard/">Community Responds, Donates to Blogger’s Drive to End Homelessness in Howard … | Fundraising Firms</a> - 2011-03-23 16:18</h4>
<p>[&hellip;] Frank Hecker: “I just donated $50 … and I encourage you to donate, too, if you haven’t already” [&hellip;]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The Newt Gingrich weight-loss program</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/03/17/the-newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 17 Mar 2011 00:54:47 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/03/17/the-newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program.jpg&#34;&gt;&lt;img alt=&#34;The Newt Gingrich weight-loss program&#34; loading=&#34;lazy&#34; src=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/assets/images/newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program-embed.jpg&#34; title=&#34;newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program&#34;&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A while back I lost a fair amount of weight and got back into the “normal” range of BMI.  Since then I’ve regained some of the weight and am now just a tad above the normal range.  I’ve been trying to get back down to where I was before, with not much luck.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;So I’ve decided to try something different: I’m entering into a “commitment contract,” a concept that’s been the subject of &lt;a href=&#34;http://ideas.repec.org/p/egc/wpaper/980.html&#34;&gt;academic research&lt;/a&gt; and is being commercialized by &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.stickk.com/about.php&#34;&gt;StickK&lt;/a&gt;.  StickK itself sounds like an interesting service, but since I have a blog I figured I could do this myself.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/assets/images/newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program.jpg"><img alt="The Newt Gingrich weight-loss program" loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program-embed.jpg" title="newt-gingrich-weight-loss-program"></a></p>
<p>A while back I lost a fair amount of weight and got back into the “normal” range of BMI.  Since then I’ve regained some of the weight and am now just a tad above the normal range.  I’ve been trying to get back down to where I was before, with not much luck.</p>
<p>So I’ve decided to try something different: I’m entering into a “commitment contract,” a concept that’s been the subject of <a href="http://ideas.repec.org/p/egc/wpaper/980.html">academic research</a> and is being commercialized by <a href="http://www.stickk.com/about.php">StickK</a>.  StickK itself sounds like an interesting service, but since I have a blog I figured I could do this myself.</p>
<p>The basic idea of a commitment contract is this: You set a goal and a time frame to meet it, announce it to others, and put some stakes on the table should you fail to achieve the announced goal.  StickK suggests the idea of donating to an “anti-charity,” i.e., an organization or cause you disagree with, should you fail to meet your goal, and that’s what I’m planning to do.  In particular, I thought it would be a good idea to donate money to one of my least-favorite politicians.  But which one?</p>
<p>I thought about picking someone in local Howard County politics, but I don’t really hate anyone on the local political scene, and even if I did I’d be afraid I’d run into them at some local blogger event and be embarrassed.  Then I thought about national politicians.  I don’t really hate anyone on the national scene either (not even Sarah Palin, whom all non-real Americans are supposed to despise), but then I thought of Newt Gingrich.</p>
<p>The thing about Newt Gingrich is that I actually have history with him, of a sort.  I used to be involved in the “<a href="http://www.hobbyspace.com/Active/index.html">space activist</a>” movement, and knew people who knew Gingrich, who was also a supporter of space exploration.  I thus had reason to be well-inclined towards Gingrich, but as his career progressed he exasperated me more and more.  It wasn’t just the whole Clinton impeachment farce, it was Gingrich’s ability to say something that was actually sensible and intelligent on a particular topic, and then turn around and make some statement so dreadfully wrongheaded that it took my breath away.  (George Gilder has this same effect on me, incidentally.)</p>
<p>The bottom line is that I have no interest whatsoever in promoting Newt Gingrich’s presidential ambitions, and that in turn makes him the perfect person to help me lose weight.  Without further ado I therefore present my</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>CONTRACT WITH (THAT PART OF) AMERICA (THAT READS MY BLOG)</strong></p>
<p><em>As a citizen seeking to lose weight I propose not just to pursue a goal of eating less and exercising more, but even more important, to do so in a way that promotes a bond of trust between the people who read my blog and myself.</em></p>
<p>That is why, in this era of dietary evasion and posturing, I offer instead a detailed agenda for my own weight loss, a written commitment with no fine print.</p>
<p>Beginning now I will take the following actions:</p>
<p>FIRST, I will start a program to reduce my weight below its current value of 75.0 kg.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>SECOND, I commit to lose at least 1 kg per month over the next five months, thus reaching my goal weight of 70.0 kg.</p>
<p>THIRD, after reaching my goal weight, I commit to maintain it for at least the next five months.</p>
<p>FOURTH, for each of the first five months in which I fail to lose 1 kg, I will donate $10 to <a href="http://newtexplore2012.com/donate.asp">Newt Explore 2012</a> (or an equivalent Newt Gingrich-related cause).</p>
<p>FIFTH, if I fail to meet my goal weight after the first five months, or if I fail to maintain my goal weight over the next five months, I will donate $50 to Newt Explore 2012, over and above any money I may have already contributed.</p>
<p>Respecting the judgment of my fellow citizens as I seek their support for my losing weight, I hereby pledge my name to this Contract with (that part of) America (that reads my blog).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I will periodically update you on my progress, probably via Twitter.  Also, should any of you seek independent confirmation of my weight loss I hereby agree to be weighed at a time and place of your choosing (subject to my schedule being open).</p>
<p>In the meantime, wish me luck as I begin my campaign.  I hope that as I’m confronted with a basket of fresh tortilla chips or am lingering near the refrigerator, I’ll stop and think of someone somewhere saying, “Ladies and gentlemen, the next President of the United States, . . . Newt Gingrich!”</p>
<p>Note: The image above is courtesy of the Tumblr “<a href="http://newtinfrontofstockphotos.tumblr.com/">Newt Gingrich in Front of Stock Photos</a>.”</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="456a692f-002"><a href="http://mowrite.blogspot.com" title="swimwriterun@gmail.com">Mo</a> - 2011-03-17 13:26</h4>
<p>Hah, great idea for motivation! &hellip;and there is nothing wrong with the metric system. Now pass the Freedom Fries, please. ;)</p>
<h4 id="456a692f-001"><a href="http://sarahsaysblog.com" title="sarah@sarahsaysblog.com">Sarah</a> - 2011-03-18 00:01</h4>
<p>Haha&ndash; love this idea. And I&rsquo;m right there with you on Gingrich.</p>
<h4 id="456a692f-003">charles (sutcliffecharles@hotmail.com) - 2011-05-11 01:30</h4>
<p>That tub of lard needs to keep as much weight on as possible. The more repulsive he is, the less likely that we foreigners (Canucks)have to put up with him lecturing the rest of the world. I hope he is the Republican candidate and will buy him one tub of ice cream a day until eday.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>I weigh myself in kilograms because I am an ex-physics major used to working in <a href="http://physics.nist.gov/cuu/Units/units.html">SI units</a>.  Although I’m a registered Democrat, I am <em>not</em> a French-loving socialist who seeks to destroy America and all it stands for (including using an antiquated system of weights and measures).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Maryland says, no DTC genetic testing for you</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/03/12/maryland-says-no-dtc-genetic-testing-for-you/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 12 Mar 2011 18:30:28 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/03/12/maryland-says-no-dtc-genetic-testing-for-you/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I’m interrupting my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/02/06/blog-on-ice/&#34;&gt;blog hiatus&lt;/a&gt; to discuss direct-to-consumer (or DTC) genetic testing, an issue that has recently become a &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2011/03/your-genes-your-rights-fdas-jeffrey-shuren-not-a-fan/&#34;&gt;cause célèbre&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt; (at least among the relatively small group of people concerned about it) and that I think deserves wider attention, as it’s an early indicator of some of the disruption that will occur around health care in the 21st century.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In recent years the cost of sequencing human genomes (i.e., the DNA information that makes you you) has been &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/02/illustrating-the-plummeting-cost-of-genome-sequencing/&#34;&gt;dropping like a rock&lt;/a&gt;.  While getting your complete personal genomic data is still relatively expensive (thousands of dollars), the cost of getting less complete data is now at the point where it’s almost an impulse purchase; for example, the startup company &lt;a href=&#34;https://www.23andme.com/&#34;&gt;23andme&lt;/a&gt; offers a service for $199 plus $5 per month that provides information on various places where your genome might differ from other peoples (“single nucleotide polymorphisms” or “SNPs,” pronounced “snips”) and some interpretation on what such differences might mean.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m interrupting my <a href="/2011/02/06/blog-on-ice/">blog hiatus</a> to discuss direct-to-consumer (or DTC) genetic testing, an issue that has recently become a <em><a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/gnxp/2011/03/your-genes-your-rights-fdas-jeffrey-shuren-not-a-fan/">cause célèbre</a></em> (at least among the relatively small group of people concerned about it) and that I think deserves wider attention, as it’s an early indicator of some of the disruption that will occur around health care in the 21st century.</p>
<p>In recent years the cost of sequencing human genomes (i.e., the DNA information that makes you you) has been <a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/02/illustrating-the-plummeting-cost-of-genome-sequencing/">dropping like a rock</a>.  While getting your complete personal genomic data is still relatively expensive (thousands of dollars), the cost of getting less complete data is now at the point where it’s almost an impulse purchase; for example, the startup company <a href="https://www.23andme.com/">23andme</a> offers a service for $199 plus $5 per month that provides information on various places where your genome might differ from other peoples (“single nucleotide polymorphisms” or “SNPs,” pronounced “snips”) and some interpretation on what such differences might mean.</p>
<p>I have some interest in where the genetics revolution is taking us, and am a regular reader of Daniel MacArthur’s “<a href="http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/geneticfuture/">Genetic Future</a>” blog and a couple of others on related topics.  A few months ago I read about 23andMe having an end of year sale, and thought it might be fun to spring for my own 23andMe data.  Unfortunately when I went to order my own test kit and entered in my home address I got the following notice:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Notice to Maryland Customers</p>
<p>We are currently unable to offer our services in the state of Maryland.  We apologize for the inconvenience.  Contact us at <a href="mailto:help@23andme.com">help@23andme.com</a> for more information.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I was then advised to “select another state.”</p>
<p>Based on a <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20081024104940/http://www.genealogyreviewsonline.com/genealogy_reviews_online/2008/10/23andme---gen-1.html">post</a> by genealogy blogger Tim Agazio and an <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130419160844/http://www.dnapolicy.org/resources/DTCStateLawChart.pdf">informative report</a> from the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20130319041050/http://www.dnapolicy.org/about.overview.html">Genetics and Public Policy Center</a> at Johns Hopkins, it appears that 23andMe has run afoul of Maryland <a href="http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/2016rs/statute_google/ghg/17-202.1.pdf">laws</a> and <a href="http://www.dsd.state.md.us/comar/comarhtml/10/10.10.06.02.htm">regulations</a> that prohibit offering medical test services directly to individuals, with DTC genetic test services like 23andMe’s being considered to fall under this prohibition.</p>
<p>There are fierce disputes over to what extent government (both at the Federal and state level) should regulate services that provide personal genetic data directly to consumers, including interpretation of that data.  Each side has its arguments.  To simplify and somewhat caricature them, one side seeks to protect uninformed consumers from fly-by-night companies that scam patients by offering inaccurate tests and misleading and even dangerous medical interpretations of genetic data.  The other side sees an overly paternalistic government trying to shut down innovative new startups at the behest of physicians trying to hold on to their traditional role as the gatekeepers of medical information of interest to patients.</p>
<p>My sympathies are with the latter view.  As we saw in the “<a href="http://www.vinotrip.com/2011/01/28/md-direct-shipping-bill-introduced-includes-retailers/">direct shipping</a>” controversy, paternalism can definitely be taken too far, with extreme hypothetical scenarios being used to squelch innovative new services in a manner that (not so coincidentally) happens to favor incumbent providers with political clout.  I believe that <a href="http://www.genomesunzipped.org/2011/03/people-have-a-right-to-access-their-own-genetic-information.php">individuals have a right</a> to order tests that provide information about their own genome, and that a <a href="http://www.xconomy.com/national/2010/06/23/consumer-genetics-needs-more-transparency-not-excessive-regulation/?single_page=true">lighter and more nuanced regulatory regime</a> is ultimately in the best interests of the general public.</p>
<p>So, back to Maryland: For a state that’s <a href="http://marylandbiocenter.org/Pages/Homepage.aspx">looking to promote biotechnology</a> as an engine of its future economy, it seems misguided to choke off business innovation in the area of personal genomics, especially in an era when people are living longer and are urged to take more personal responsibility for their health.  I find it ironic that <a href="http://www.nea.com/AboutNEA/Default.aspx">NEA</a>, one of <a href="https://www.23andme.com/">23andMe’s investors</a>, has two of its three US offices in Maryland, but Maryland is a “no-go area” for 23andMe’s service.  It’s not so much ironic but depressing that 23andMe and similar companies can’t solicit as customers geneticists and others in Maryland who are potential future entrepreneurs in this space.</p>
<p>Unless, of course, they move to Virginia.  I think the whole “Virginia is better for businesses than Maryland” theme is a bit overblown in general, but in this case I think it’s on the mark.  The <a href="http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?000+cod+8.01-581.18C1">relevant Virginia law</a> seems much more commonsensical, allowing individuals to order their own medical tests and absolving physicians of any responsibility if people don’t consult a medical professional concerning the tests’ results.</p>
<p>So here’s my challenge to Allan Kittleman (my representative in the Maryland Senate) and Gail Bates and Warren Miller (my representatives in the Maryland House of Delegates): Next legislative session, why not focus less on <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2011/03/one-man-army-kittleman-v-unions.html">legislation that’s primarily relevant to yesterday’s industries</a> and instead turn your attention to more sensible regulation of one of the emerging industries of tomorrow?</p>
<p>UPDATE 2015/07/29: Fixed various broken links.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="d961ea8a-001"><a href="http://www.pqdna.com" title="agous@pqdna.com">Andre Gous</a> - 2011-03-18 07:32</h4>
<p>I enjoyed your article, thank you. My company, Precision Quality DNA, opposes government regulation on principle &ndash; but in the DTC market, it is an exceptionally bad idea. As if that&rsquo;s not bad enough, the approach the FDA has been taking is especially inappropriate. As far as I can tell, my company is &ldquo;the lone ranger&rdquo; when it comes to making a principled stand in favor of the free market. More details can be read at: <a href="http://pqdna.com/hjsasp/gn02.cfm?ID=087913282360">http://pqdna.com/hjsasp/gn02.cfm?ID=087913282360</a> Thank you for speaking out. Regards, Andre Gous CEO, Precision Quality DNA</p>
<h4 id="d961ea8a-002">Rob W (warthenr@yahoo.com) - 2011-04-12 14:21</h4>
<p>I completely agree that this is strange for a bio friendly state to be so backwards. I would understand if they required some sort of disclaimer that the information provided is still in it&rsquo;s infancy and may be improved upon as we learn more information, but getting more and more DNA out there and can only help us better understand some our history.</p>
<h4 id="d961ea8a-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-04-12 16:04</h4>
<p>Rob W: Thanks for stopping by. It would be interesting to explore the history of the relevant Maryland laws and regulations around lab testing. I&rsquo;m pretty sure this all predates the genetic testing controversy, and it may even predate Maryland involvement in biotech. I&rsquo;m not sure if the motivation for the law was primarily government paternalism (i.e., we need to protect people from themselves) or if there was a major push by doctors or other special interest groups to block direct-to-consumer lab testing.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Where should I bank in Ellicott City?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/22/where-should-i-bank-in-ellicott-city/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 22 Jan 2011 19:16:29 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/22/where-should-i-bank-in-ellicott-city/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;After posting lots of information it’s time for me to turn around and ask my few readers a question: I’m currently considering establishing a new bank account&amp;mdash;not replacing my current account but supplementing it as a dedicated account out of which to pay recurring expenses.  Those of you who’ve traveled Route 40 west of US 29 know that there a lot of banks on that stretch, and there must be one for me.  (I’d like to bank with a bank that has a local physical presence.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After posting lots of information it’s time for me to turn around and ask my few readers a question: I’m currently considering establishing a new bank account&mdash;not replacing my current account but supplementing it as a dedicated account out of which to pay recurring expenses.  Those of you who’ve traveled Route 40 west of US 29 know that there a lot of banks on that stretch, and there must be one for me.  (I’d like to bank with a bank that has a local physical presence.)</p>
<p>Here are my choices, as far as I can tell:</p>
<ul>
<li>Baltimore County Savings Bank</li>
<li>Bank of America</li>
<li>CapitalOne Bank</li>
<li>The Columbia Bank</li>
<li>Eastern Savings Bank</li>
<li>First Mariner Bank</li>
<li>Howard Bank</li>
<li>M&amp;T Bank</li>
<li>SunTrust Bank</li>
<li>Wachovia Bank</li>
</ul>
<p>(There’s also SECU Credit Union, but I’m not eligible to join it.)</p>
<p>I pay almost all bills online, so I’m very interested in the strength of that offering.  (For example, I need to be able to make online payments to people who only accept checks.)  I don’t plan to get a mortgage with them, but getting a car loan is possible in future.  As noted above, I want a bank with a local branch so I can walk in and deal with real live people if any issues arise.  (I also might get a safety deposit box at some point as well.)  I’m also willing to support local or regional banks in preference to national banks, as long as I’m not giving up anything in terms of service, etc.</p>
<p>Does anyone out there have decided opinions on which bank I should pick?  Any of these banks you think are really great?  Any I should avoid like the plague?  Feel free to sound off in the comments section or (if you’d prefer) send me email at <a href="mailto:hecker@hecker.org">hecker@hecker.org</a>.  Thanks in advance for any responses you care to make!</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="3a143c07-003">GM (GM32@YAHOO.COM) - 2011-01-23 04:07</h4>
<p>Avoid- Bank of America-lousy company in general Eastern Savings-rocky future First Mariner-rocky future M&amp;T has 2 branches in the area you are targeting and their website is decent-the Bethany branch seems more personal. Wachovia has many locations and a decent website. Capital One is the former Chevy Chase-many locations in the metro area also</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-010"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2011-01-23 04:10</h4>
<p>I like Howard Bank. Just switched myself. Very real-human-there.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-015"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-01-23 05:49</h4>
<p>Thanks for the advice, especially about banks with uncertain futures. K Bank on that stretch recently closed, so I&rsquo;m sensitive to that.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-011"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-01-23 05:50</h4>
<p>Thanks for the comment. IIRC Howard Bank is actually the only true local bank, i.e., with HQ in Howard County.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-016">Bill WIlson (bill.wilson@comcast.net) - 2011-01-23 15:36</h4>
<p>Don&rsquo;t give up on credit unions - they are almost always more responsive and consumer friendly. I have my credit card and mortgage with SECU and it has saved me big bucks. You can join the APL Credit Union - &ldquo;APL Federal Credit Union is open to anyone who lives, works (or regularly conducts business in) or attends school in Howard County, Maryland. Immediate family members of current credit union members are also eligible for membership - even if they do not live or work in Howard County.&rdquo;</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-014">Sharon Gilbert (sharonrgilbert@comcast.net) - 2011-01-23 15:46</h4>
<p>I have used Howard Bank for campaign accounts. While their customer service is great, their website is not easy to navigate. For my personal accounts I like APL Credit Union. Anyone who lives, works, worships (etc) in Howard County can be a member. There are 2 locations now (one near Apple Ford, the other beside APL on Johns Hopkins Rd). Hours are convenient, customer service is great and their website is really easy to use&hellip;and all the perks of belonging to a credit union.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-009"><a href="http://mowrite.blogspot.com" title="swimwriterun@gmail.com">Mo</a> - 2011-01-23 18:14</h4>
<p>Agreed - APL offers great benefits and excellent customer service.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-008"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-01-23 18:43</h4>
<p>Thanks to you and Mo for the recommendation. The APL credit union is not quite as close to me (unless they have an Ellicott City branch I don&rsquo;t know about), but I will definitely check them out.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-006"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-01-23 18:45</h4>
<p>Sharon, thanks to you also for the recommendations. I knew about the APL Credit Union location next to APL, but had forgotten about the one further north.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-005">Local Broker (aaron@meisner.net) - 2011-01-23 19:02</h4>
<p>Why not consider opening a fully featured brokerage account? At firms like Wells Fargo Advisors, you get full access to all of the Wells and Wachovia branches and ATMs, as well as the advice of a professional. Best of all, the advisor is notified before you bounce a check and can call you to make arrangements if you make a cash flow error. So it&rsquo;s like getting an old fashioned banking relationship.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-007">felix (ghoulie13@gmx.com) - 2011-01-24 00:12</h4>
<p>well if you live on main st and don&rsquo;t have a car. don&rsquo;t bank anywhere. there are no banks in old ec. Hell, there are only two atms? 3? they dont work anyway. do Howard if you have a car. i think Howard refunds you if you use an atm belonging to another bank? well at least at howard they are nice. pnc peeps are nice as well. wachoves,ungh? well Fargo please. bofa forget it. m&amp;t folded right? use a mattress!</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-012"><a href="http://www.secumd.org" title="ebelli@secumd.com">Elizabeth Belli</a> - 2011-01-24 13:58</h4>
<p>You may be eligible to join SECU and not know it. Check our site (<a href="https://www.secumd.org">www.secumd.org</a>) Relatives of SECU members, state/county employees, students and alumni of md schools and employees of hundreds of private companies are eligible to join. 2 branches in/near EC (Rt. 40 and one opening at 175 and Snowden River on 2/7) - SECU Product Manager and Ellicott City resident</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-013"><a href="http://tell-your-neighbors.blogspot.com/" title="johngordonboyle@gmail.com">johngordonboyle</a> - 2011-01-24 14:04</h4>
<p>I&rsquo;ve been banking with the Route 40 branch of the evolving FNBoM/Allfirt/M&amp;T most of my life. Solid customer service, but their e-banking doesn&rsquo;t knock my socks off.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-002">Paula Woerner (pwoerner@1stmarinerbank.com) - 2011-01-24 19:42</h4>
<p>I would recommend, 1st Mariner Bank. To begin with they are locally own bank. I have been employed by banks for 40 years and retired from Wachovia. I can attest the Ellicott City Office of 1st Mariner is the most competent and friendly branch on the Rt. 40 Corrider. Check them out and you will agree.</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-001"><a href="http://temydljanokian70.wordpress.com/" title="magdalenekone@gmail.com">торрент ру</a> - 2011-01-28 12:23</h4>
<p>.I have my credit card and mortgage with SECU and it has saved me big bucks?</p>
<h4 id="3a143c07-004"><a href="http://annethologie.blogspot.com" title="agonnella@gmail.com">Anne</a> - 2011-02-02 15:17</h4>
<p>I&rsquo;m a credit union gal, and I like the APL federal credit union. I do all my bill paying online with them. I even wrote a post on it some time ago: <a href="http://annethologie.blogspot.com/2009/02/i-love-my-credit-union.html">http://annethologie.blogspot.com/2009/02/i-love-my-credit-union.html</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>OpenGovernment.org comes to Maryland</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/19/opengovernment-org-comes-to-maryland/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 19 Jan 2011 22:09:40 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/19/opengovernment-org-comes-to-maryland/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I hadn’t seen this mentioned in any other local blogs, so I thought I’d note it here for the benefit of all you political &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anorak_%28slang%29&#34;&gt;anoraks&lt;/a&gt; out there: The folks who brought you &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.opencongress.org/&#34;&gt;OpenCongress.org&lt;/a&gt;, a site to keep track of the activities of your Congressional representations, &lt;a href=&#34;http://blog.opengovernment.org/2011/01/18/opengovernment-beta-launches-today/&#34;&gt;have just launched&lt;/a&gt; a beta version of &lt;a href=&#34;http://md.opengovernment.org/&#34;&gt;OpenGovernment.org&lt;/a&gt; to fill the same role for state legislators, and Maryland is one of the five states they’re starting with (along with California, Louisiana, Texas, and Wisconsin).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I hadn’t seen this mentioned in any other local blogs, so I thought I’d note it here for the benefit of all you political <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anorak_%28slang%29">anoraks</a> out there: The folks who brought you <a href="http://www.opencongress.org/">OpenCongress.org</a>, a site to keep track of the activities of your Congressional representations, <a href="http://blog.opengovernment.org/2011/01/18/opengovernment-beta-launches-today/">have just launched</a> a beta version of <a href="http://md.opengovernment.org/">OpenGovernment.org</a> to fill the same role for state legislators, and Maryland is one of the five states they’re starting with (along with California, Louisiana, Texas, and Wisconsin).</p>
<p>You can use the site to follow general issues, bills, campaign contributions, etc.  If you sign up for the site you can also track individual legislators and legislation, and even add your own comments in various places.  For more background information see the site’s <a href="http://opengovernment.org/pages/about">about page</a>, which has an especially interesting discussion concerning all the data sources they’re aggregating.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://md.opengovernment.org/people/341-allan-kittleman">page for Allan Kittleman</a> (probably the Maryland state legislator most in the news lately) gives a good idea of the strengths and weaknesses of the site in its current (unfinished) state: It has a good set of links to various things Kittleman-related like his votes, bills he’s sponsored, ratings from various groups, and so on, but lacks other useful resources.  For example, it collates Twitter mentions, but has no links at all to news coverage or blog posts, even though it claims to be doing a Google news search and blog search for Kittleman-related posts.  (Apparently the site is searching for “Senator Allan H Kittleman,” when it would do much better searching for plain “Senator Allan Kittleman.”)  The page doesn’t even have a photo of Kittleman, even though it links to a Wikipedia article that has a perfectly good one.  What’s worse, even if you register and sign in it’s not immediately clear how you can help make the page better, especially if you’re a nontechnical user.</p>
<p>But this is nitpicking a site on its second day live.  I think this is a worthy effort, and it <em>is</em> still in beta.  The groups behind the project, the <a href="http://www.participatorypolitics.org/">Participatory Politics Foundation</a> and the <a href="http://sunlightfoundation.com/">Sunlight Foundation</a> are doing some good work and it’s worth checking out what they’re doing and even providing support , either <a href="http://opengovernment.org/pages/help">financially</a> or <a href="http://opengovernment.org/pages/developer">using your mad developer skillz</a>.</p>
<p>The goal for the project is very ambitious: to cover all levels of government from Federal down to local city and county governments.  Here’s hoping they can secure more funding and expand the site, so that one day we’ll be able to have the same level of coverage of local Howard County politicos.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="d54b8f0f-002"><a href="http://opengovernment.org" title="drm@ppolitics.org">David Moore</a> - 2011-01-20 15:44</h4>
<p>Frank - thanks for checking out the site! And agreed with your assessments &hellip; this is definitely a beta, and we&rsquo;re on-target to make it better. Visitors can submit photos &amp; links for members of the MD legislature to us anytime via our Contact page on OG, and we&rsquo;ll get them up. In short, our first hurdle was a lack of open data &ndash; if the primary source made them available in full, well then, we&rsquo;d have no problems bringing them in. Second, re: news &amp; blog aggregation, there are many hundreds of members in our database now for our five beta states, and we&rsquo;re still optimizing our search queries in just the way you describe. So with our various technical workarounds on OG, there&rsquo;s lots more work to do, but we hope we&rsquo;re building a useful tool for watchdogging. Thanks again for your valuable comments on the photo issue, we&rsquo;re working every day on making it a more powerful public resource and empowering any internet surfer to make it better for everyone, just as you describe.</p>
<h4 id="d54b8f0f-003"><a href="http://sarahsaysblog.com" title="sarah@sarahsayblog.com">Sarah</a> - 2011-01-20 17:31</h4>
<p>Frank&ndash; thanks for blogging about this. I haven&rsquo;t heard of it and it looks like a great project with a ton of potential.</p>
<h4 id="d54b8f0f-001"><a href="http://blog.opengovernment.org/2011/01/20/opengovernment-on-ncsl-the-thicket/">OpenGovernment on NCSL The Thicket and more | OpenGovernment Blog</a> - 2011-01-20 22:38</h4>
<p>[&hellip;] everyone, plenty more press mentions &amp; positive buzz to report: Frank Hecker’s MD blog; Federal News Radio (with whom I was fortunate to do a phone interview earlier today, piece [&hellip;]</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Back to the future in Howard County politics, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/18/back-to-the-future-in-howard-county-politics-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 18 Jan 2011 20:29:57 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/18/back-to-the-future-in-howard-county-politics-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Quick, guess in which year the following events occurred in Howard County:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Republicans had high hopes of improving on their performance in the previous county elections, but faced in a major hurdle in the significant Democratic edge in registered voters.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;The Democratic candidate for county executive, a seasoned and successful county-wide campaigner, easily defeated by a 63%-37% margin a Republican candidate who had never before run for political office.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Democrats also won four out of five seats on the county council (excepting only western Howard).&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;The incumbent council chair, an African-American Democrat and teacher at Morgan State University, won the council seat for east Columbia with two-thirds of the vote.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;In west Columbia a female Democratic incumbent council member faced a strong primary challenge from her outspoken (but less well-funded) male opponent, who accused her of being too cozy with developers.  She managed to hold him to less than 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary, and then went on to win the general election by an overwhelming margin over her male Republican challenger.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;In western Howard an experienced male Republican candidate easily defeated by a 2-1 margin a female Democratic challenger making her first run for political office.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;In a relatively conservative Ellicott City district, a female Democratic candidate making her second run for county council touted her support from Republicans, and ended up defeating her male Republican challenger by the smallest margin of any council race that year (not much over 50% of the vote).&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;In the Savage and North Laurel district a female Democratic candidate easily defeated her male Republican opponent (himself a former council member), as he managed to capture only around a third of the vote.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;In the courthouse races Democrats won the sheriff and state’s attorney positions, Margaret Rappaport won election, Kay Hartleb ran for Register of Wills, and Democrats succeeded in capturing that office as well as the three Judge of the Orphans’ Court positions.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;Beyond the county races, Howard County elected Democrat Edward Kasemeyer to the Maryland State Senate and sent a Kittleman back to Annapolis, and Democrat Barbara Mikulski cruised to victory in the US Senate race with more than 60% of the vote.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;If you guessed 2010, congratulations, you were paying attention to last year’s elections.  If you guessed 1986 you were also right, and have a better memory than most of us.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Quick, guess in which year the following events occurred in Howard County:</p>
<ul>
<li>Republicans had high hopes of improving on their performance in the previous county elections, but faced in a major hurdle in the significant Democratic edge in registered voters.</li>
<li>The Democratic candidate for county executive, a seasoned and successful county-wide campaigner, easily defeated by a 63%-37% margin a Republican candidate who had never before run for political office.</li>
<li>Democrats also won four out of five seats on the county council (excepting only western Howard).</li>
<li>The incumbent council chair, an African-American Democrat and teacher at Morgan State University, won the council seat for east Columbia with two-thirds of the vote.</li>
<li>In west Columbia a female Democratic incumbent council member faced a strong primary challenge from her outspoken (but less well-funded) male opponent, who accused her of being too cozy with developers.  She managed to hold him to less than 40% of the vote in the Democratic primary, and then went on to win the general election by an overwhelming margin over her male Republican challenger.</li>
<li>In western Howard an experienced male Republican candidate easily defeated by a 2-1 margin a female Democratic challenger making her first run for political office.</li>
<li>In a relatively conservative Ellicott City district, a female Democratic candidate making her second run for county council touted her support from Republicans, and ended up defeating her male Republican challenger by the smallest margin of any council race that year (not much over 50% of the vote).</li>
<li>In the Savage and North Laurel district a female Democratic candidate easily defeated her male Republican opponent (himself a former council member), as he managed to capture only around a third of the vote.</li>
<li>In the courthouse races Democrats won the sheriff and state’s attorney positions, Margaret Rappaport won election, Kay Hartleb ran for Register of Wills, and Democrats succeeded in capturing that office as well as the three Judge of the Orphans’ Court positions.</li>
<li>Beyond the county races, Howard County elected Democrat Edward Kasemeyer to the Maryland State Senate and sent a Kittleman back to Annapolis, and Democrat Barbara Mikulski cruised to victory in the US Senate race with more than 60% of the vote.</li>
</ul>
<p>If you guessed 2010, congratulations, you were paying attention to last year’s elections.  If you guessed 1986 you were also right, and have a better memory than most of us.</p>
<p>As I was writing <a href="/2011/01/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-9/">part 9</a> of my series on the history of Howard County Council I was struck by the large number of almost spooky coincidences between the elections in 1986 and the elections in 2010.  I present them here for your amusement and enlightenment:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<ul>
<li>1986: Republicans were energized by the passage of the council districting scheme and recent voter registration gains that reduced the Democratic edge to 1.78-to-1.  2010: Republicans hoped for a “tsunami” that would sweep them to victory both at the national and local levels.  Democrats had a 1.56-to-1 registration advantage.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></li>
<li>1986: Democrat Elizabeth Bobo (who had previously won multiple at-large elections for county council) defeated Republican businessperson and first-time candidate Gilbert South, 63%-37%.  2010: Democrat Ken Ulman (who had won the county-wide election for county executive four years earlier) defeated Republican businessperson and first-time candidate Trent Kittleman, also 63%-37%.  (Extra bonus coincidence: Both races saw a male candidate run against a female candidate.)</li>
<li>1986: Democrats won four council seats, all except District 5 in western Howard County.  2010: Democrats won four council seats, all except District 5 in western Howard County.</li>
<li>1986: In District 3 (east Columbia) incumbent council chair C. Vernon Gray (a professor at Morgan State University) won 66% of the vote (in a 3-way race).  2010: In District 2 (east Columbia) incumbent council chair Calvin Ball (an assistant professor at Morgan State University) won 68% of the vote.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></li>
<li>1986: In District 4 (west Columbia) council incumbent Ruth Keeton defeated fellow incumbent Lloyd Knowles in a 3-way Democratic primary, in which Knowles won only 35% of the vote.  Keeton went on to defeat William McDill 74%-26% in the general election.  2010: In District 4 (west Columbia) council incumbent Mary Kay Sigaty defeated Alan Klein in the Democratic primary, in which Klein won only 38% of the vote.  Sigaty went on to defeat Tom D’Asto 68%-32% in the general election.  (Extra bonus coincidence: Both Knowles and Klein have political ties to Elizabeth Bobo.  Super-extra bonus coincidence: Both their last names begin with the letter ‘K’.)</li>
<li>1986: Republican Charles Feaga, who had previously run (unsuccessfully) as an at-large council candidate, defeated political novice Alice Bender 67%-33% to win the District 5 seat in western Howard.  2010: Republican council incumbent Greg Fox defeated political novice Zaneb Beams 67%-32% to win the District 5 seat in western Howard.</li>
<li>1986: Angela Beltram (of “Half my workers are Republicans” fame) defeated Darrel Drown in District 2 (Ellicott City), 54%-46%.  (Beltram had previously run unsuccessfully in 1982 as an at-large candidate.) 2010: Courtney Watson (of “Republicans for Watson” fame) defeated Robert Flanagan in District 1 (Ellicott City/Elkridge), 53%-47%.  (Watson had been previously elected to the council in 2006 on her first try.)</li>
<li>1986: In District 1 (Elkridge/Savage/North Laurel) Democrat Shane Pendergrass defeated former Republican council member James Holway and independent candidate Lewis Andrews; Holway won only 37% of the vote.  2010: In District 3 (Savage/North Laurel) Democrat Jennifer Terrasa defeated former Republican council member Dennis Schrader; Schrader won only 33% of the vote.</li>
<li>(This was a trick question.) 1986: Democrats Herbert Stonesifer and William Hymes won election as sheriff and state’s attorney respectively.  Margaret Rappaport was one of the three Democrats elected as Orphans’ Court Judges.  Kay Hartleb ran as a Democrat and was elected Register of Wills.  2010: Democrats James Fitzgerald and Dario Broccolino won election as sheriff and state’s attorney respectively.  Margaret Rappaport, now a Republican, was elected Clerk of the Circuit Court.  Kay Hartleb, also now a Republican, ran for Register of Wills but was defeated by Democrat Byron Macfarlane.</li>
<li>1986: Edward Kasemeyer was elected to his first term in the Maryland State Senate in District 14, by a 54%-46% margin.  Robert Kittleman was reelected to the Maryland House of Delegates in District 14B.  Barbara Mikulski was reelected to the US Senate by a 60%-39% margin over Linda Chavez.  2010: Edward Kasemeyer was elected to his sixth term in the Maryland State Senate in District 12, by a 59%-41% margin.  Alan Kittleman, son of Robert, was reelected to the Maryland State Senate in District 9.  Barbara Milkulski was reelected to the US Senate by a 62%-36% margin over Eric Wargotz.</li>
</ul>
<p>Are these more than just coincidences?  Is something deeper going on?  When I have time I’ll address these questions in a follow-up post.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="986943d6-001">HoCoRising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2011-01-19 02:02</h4>
<p>Very cool, Frank.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>1986 election results are from <a href="/2011/01/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-10/">part 10</a> of my series on the history of Howard County Council redistricting.  2010 election results are from the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/results/General/CountyResults_county_14_local_1.html">2010 general election official results</a> published by the Maryland State Board of Elections.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>As I noted in a <a href="/2010/12/24/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-7/">previous post</a>, in 1985 the goal of the Howard Republican County Central Committee was to reduce the Democratic registration edge to 1.5-to-1.  After a quarter of a century they’re getting closer but are not quite there yet.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>Note that some of the council districts were renumbered as part of redistricting after the 1990 census.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 10</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-10/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 18 Jan 2011 03:07:27 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/18/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-10/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In the previous &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-9/&#34;&gt;part 9&lt;/a&gt; of this series we reviewed the Howard County Council races of 1986 up to the time of the party primaries. In this part we continue the story with the 1986 primary and general elections:&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;September&amp;ndash;October 1986.  Right before the primary election C. Vernon Gray again faces questions about his eligibility to run, as an anonymous letter writer (whom Gray intimates is connected with his opponent, Michael P. Hickey) claims to election officials that Gray’s position as a professor at Morgan State University makes him a state government employee and therefore barred as a candidate under the Howard County charter.  Once again the Board of Elections rules in Gray’s favor.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the previous <a href="/2011/01/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-9/">part 9</a> of this series we reviewed the Howard County Council races of 1986 up to the time of the party primaries. In this part we continue the story with the 1986 primary and general elections:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>September&ndash;October 1986.  Right before the primary election C. Vernon Gray again faces questions about his eligibility to run, as an anonymous letter writer (whom Gray intimates is connected with his opponent, Michael P. Hickey) claims to election officials that Gray’s position as a professor at Morgan State University makes him a state government employee and therefore barred as a candidate under the Howard County charter.  Once again the Board of Elections rules in Gray’s favor.</p>
<p>In the primary itself Elizabeth Bobo defeats James Clark 2&ndash;1 to become the Democratic nominee for county executive.  Incumbent council members C. Vernon Gray and Ruth Keeton also easily win nomination in Council Districts 3 and 4 respectively, Gray defeating Michael P. Hickey 2&ndash;1 and Keeton winning almost half the vote in a 3-way contest and defeating fellow incumbent Lloyd Knowles.  In District 1 Shane Pendergrass and James Holway win the Democratic and Republican nominations respectively, in District 2 Angela Beltram wins the Democratic nomination with half the vote in a 4-way contest, and in District 5 Democrat Alice Bender wins the right to face off against Republican Charles Feaga.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>As the general election approaches the candidates in each district divide along somewhat different sets of issues: In Council District 1 James Holway blames “the incumbents” for deviating from the plans drawn up when he was a council member.  In District 5 Charles Feaga and Alice Bender clash over farm zoning (“We can school her on that a little bit,” Feaga says), public transportation, and schools. District 2 candidates Angela Beltram and Darrel Drown agree on growth and education as the main issues but differ on who is a better match for the district, as Beltram touts her cross-party appeal (“Half my workers are Republicans”).</p>
<p>The battle over council district lines in Columbia resonates in Council District 3, where Federal worker Harry Dunbar, who unsuccessfully proposed his own districting plan, runs as an independent and joins Republican candidate Kay Koontz in criticizing Gray for endorsing a plan that splits Owen Brown between districts. (Gray counters, “If I had really wanted to gerrymander it I would have put [Michael P.] Hickey in another district, and I probably would have had no primary opponent.”)  In heavily-Democratic District 4 Republican William McDill decries party-line voting and urges voters to look past party to the candidate (“To be quite candid, I consider myself the most qualified person running for County Council”); Keeton replies, “My primary response to Bill has been to enjoy him.”</p>
<p>As October ends, C. Vernon Gray’s eligibility to run is once again questioned, with outgoing county executive J. Hugh Nichols joining with others in claiming that the intent of the county charter had been to include university professors among the categories of government employees prohibited from running for county office.  (Gray responds, “This is all part and parcel of some of the dirty tricks that can be expected when you run for office.”)  Unfortunately Nichols, who was the recording secretary for the charter committee, can’t find his notes and other material from the drafting of the charter (some of them possibly being packed away when Nichols resigned and moved to New Orleans), and in the end the Board of Elections reaffirms Gray’s eligibility.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>(“Gray’s eligibility questioned,” September 4, 1986, p. 20; “State profs pass county council test,” September 11, p. 23; “Bobo wins 2&ndash;1 victory over Clark,” September 11, p. 18; “ Gray and Keeton score big victories,” September 11, p. 18; “Three vie for council,” September 25, 1986, p. 20; “Bender, Feaga are far apart on issues,” September 25, 1986, p. 21; “Council hopefuls beg to differ,” October 2, 1986, p. 24; “Split village a District 3 issue,” October 16, p. 20; “Keeton stirred by McDill’s fun,” October 16, 1986, p. 22; “Gray’s status doubted,” October 16, 1986, p. 20; “Election board lawyer clears Gray for council bid. . . again,” October 23, 1986, p. 24)</p>
<p>November&ndash;December 1986.  Voters go to the polls for the general election, watched by a group of South American professional and community leaders visiting the US to learn about American elections. “Will there be any fraud tonight?” one asks, and professes himself “a little disappointed” after learning about the various procedural checks that make it unlikely.</p>
<p>Elizabeth Bobo makes history as the first female county executive in Maryland, winning with 63% of the vote and carrying 56 out of 62 precincts.  But perhaps the bigger story is the GOP’s success in coming back from being shut out in 1982, as Charles Feaga secures a council seat in District 5 with a 2&ndash;1 majority (winning every precinct in the district) and Robert Flanagan joins Robert Kittleman in the Maryland House of Delegates.</p>
<p>However Democrats pick up the other four council seats, as Ruth Keeton defeats William McDill with a 3&ndash;1 margin, C. Vernon Gray takes two thirds of the vote in a 3-way vote, Shane Pendergrass takes 55% of the vote in another 3-way contest, and Angela Beltram gets by Darrel Drown 54%&ndash;46% in what she calls “a damn tough race”.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>Echoing Robert Kittleman two years before, Republican Central Committee member Gail Bates claims that “Howard County is on the verge of a two-party system.”  However although the new district scheme has allowed Republicans to pick up one council seat and have a realistic chance of a second, the overall political dynamics of the county remain mostly unchanged.  As political analyst Len Lazerick notes, “The Republican nemesis county-wide has been, and looks like it will continue to be, Columbia.  The old, ugly Howard vs. Columbia split, which many on both sides hope has been buried, continues to exist politically.”</p>
<p>As the end of the year approaches Lloyd Knowles reflects on the introduction of council districting, which led to opportunities for candidates like Charles Feaga and Angela Beltram who finished just out of the running in 1982, as well as for candidates without previous county-wide experience like Shane Pendergrass (“Districting put someone such as Shane on the council, who might not otherwise have had the exposure”), but at the same time cost him his council seat (“I really believe I would have led the ticket if we would have had at-large elections again”).  He concludes, “We could have done a better job, obviously, in the councilmanic districting thing.  None of us took that as seriously as we should have.”</p>
<p>(“Visitors scrutinize election,” November 6, 1986, p. 23; “Bobo wins again,” November 6, 1986, p. 18; “Feaga finally wins, joins 4 Democrats on council,” November 6, 1986, p. 19; “GOP follows Kittleman’s lead,” November 6, 1986, p. 20; “Tallies for executive, council, courts,” November 6, 1986, p. 19; “GOP gains,” November 20, 1986, p. 16; “GOP glass two-thirds empty,” November 13, 1986, p. 21; “Clark and Knowles step down,” December 4, 1986, p. 21)</p>
<p>In part 11 of this series we’ll skip forward to the 1990 elections and see how they set the stage for the second exercise in drawing Howard County Council district lines.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>All article references in this post are to the <em>Columbia Flier</em>; articles are available on microfilm at the <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=56">Central Branch</a> of the Howard County Library.  The <em>Columbia Flier</em>, the <em>Howard County Times</em>, and the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> do not have online archives for this period.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The official 1986 primary election results for the county executive and county council races were as follows (incumbents are marked with an asterisk):</p>
<ul>
<li>County executive (D): Elizabeth Bobo, 14,051 (68%); James Clark, 6,476 (32%).</li>
<li>District 1 (D): Shane Pendergrass, 1,655 (48%); Mitchell Egber, 1,008 (29%); Charles Wehland, 819 (23%).</li>
<li>District 1 (R): James Holway, 572 (64%); Marilyn McNeill, 322 (36%).</li>
<li>District 2 (D): Angela Beltram, 2,402 (49%); Grace Kubofcik, 1,242 (25%); John Cugle, 887 (18%); Robert Belsinger, 385 (8%).</li>
<li>District 3 (D): C. Vernon Gray (*), 2,613 (68%); Michael P. Hickey, 1,216 (32%).</li>
<li>District 4 (D): Ruth Keeton (*), 1,951 (48%); Lloyd Knowles (*), 1,411 (35%), Donald Carroll, 688 (17%).</li>
<li>District 5 (D): Alice Bender, 1,188 (42%); John Boender, 930 (33%); Larry Yeager, 696 (25%).</li>
</ul>
<p>Gilbert South was unopposed in the Republican primary for county executive, as were the Republican candidates in Council Districts 2, 3, 4, and 5.</p>
<p>(Results are from the <em>Columbia Flier</em> story “Official county-wide primary tallies,” September 25, 1986, p. 24.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The board of elections relied in part on a precedent set in Prince George’s County in 1977, where a similar charter provision was interpreted as not preventing Parris Glendening from serving on the county council at the same time he was an instructor at the University of Maryland.  (Glendening of course went on to become county executive of Prince George’s County and then the governor of Maryland.)  This interpretation presumably also applies to current council member Calvin Ball, like Gray a professor at Morgan State University.</p>
<p>Note also a possible connection between this dispute between J. Hugh Nichols and C. Vernon Gray and Nichols’s earlier resignation as county executive: Nichols had wanted to start his new job in July but not resign until September, taking accrued annual leave in the meantime.  Gray had objected to Nichols doing this, and had secured a ruling from the county’s law office that elected officials like Nichols were not entitled to accrue leave.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>The official 1986 general election results for the county executive and county council races were as follows (incumbents are marked with an asterisk):</p>
<ul>
<li>County executive: Elizabeth Bobo (D), 26,664 (63%); Gilbert South (R), 15,572 (37%).</li>
<li>District 1: Shane Pendergrass (D), 4,354 (55%); James Holway (R), 2,901 (37%); Lewis Andrews (Ind), 659 (8%).</li>
<li>District 2: Angela Beltram (D), 5,233 (54%); Darrel Drown (R), 4,411 (46%).</li>
<li>District 3: C. Vernon Gray (D) (*), 4,392 (66%); Kay Koontz (R), 1,697 (25%); Harry Dunbar (Ind), 607 (9%).</li>
<li>District 4: Ruth Keeton (D) (*), 5,673 (74%); William McDill (R), 2,029 (26%).</li>
<li>District 5: Charles Feaga (R), 5,548 (67%); Alice Bender (D), 2,709 (33%).</li>
</ul>
<p>(Results are from the <em>Columbia Flier</em> story “Final, official results in county races,” December 11, 1986, p. 24.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 9</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-9/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 16 Jan 2011 19:29:43 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-9/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/25/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-8/&#34;&gt;Part 8&lt;/a&gt; of this series covered the Howard County Council’s first exercise in drawing council district lines.  We now turn to how that effort affected the 1986 council elections, the first in which council members were elected by districts:&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;February&amp;ndash;April 1986.  The council once again approves the final district lines, this time via a council resolution rather than a bill, limiting the effect of any petition drive to put the plan to a referendum and ensuring that the 1986 elections will be held on a district basis.  Council member Lloyd Knowles calls it “the worst vote ever taken by the council” and walks out of the meeting.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:2&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:2&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;2&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="/2010/12/25/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-8/">Part 8</a> of this series covered the Howard County Council’s first exercise in drawing council district lines.  We now turn to how that effort affected the 1986 council elections, the first in which council members were elected by districts:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>February&ndash;April 1986.  The council once again approves the final district lines, this time via a council resolution rather than a bill, limiting the effect of any petition drive to put the plan to a referendum and ensuring that the 1986 elections will be held on a district basis.  Council member Lloyd Knowles calls it “the worst vote ever taken by the council” and walks out of the meeting.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Meanwhile more candidates enter the race for council seats in the new districts, joining previously-announced Council District 5 candidate Charles Feaga.  Former council candidates Angela Beltram and Grace Kubofcik (who finished sixth and seventh respectively in the 1982 Democratic primary) announce their intention to run in Council District 2 (the Ellicott City district).  They are joined by businessman John Cugle, who’s new to politics but not lacking in confidence (“I’ve never lost anything in my life, and I don’t plan to start now.”).</p>
<p>Council chair C. Vernon Gray, a recent migrant to Phelps Luck and Council District 3 (the east Columbia district), gets some good news as the Howard County Board of Elections issues a ruling that the two-year residency requirement in the amended charter does not apply to the 1986 election.  Gray celebrates by formally filing as a candidate in District 3, though not without encountering another potential snag: Because Gray had previously neglected to formally inform the Howard County Board of Elections of his change of address, the board questions whether Gray is a “qualified and registered voter” in his district (as also required by the charter), and tells Gray it will accept his filing “conditionally” pending a legal ruling.  Gray responds that he has “never heard of such chicanery,” and after he threatens a lawsuit the board backs down.  Gray is joined as a District 3 candidate by Michael P. Hickey (not to be confused with the school superintendent), who touts his nine years of residence in east Columbia.</p>
<p>In west Columbia the Democratic field gets crowded as council incumbents Ruth Keeton and Lloyd Knowles face off against each other and against new candidate Don Carroll of Wilde Lake for the Council District 4 seat.  At a fundraiser for Keeton Jim Rouse praises her as the “first lady of Columbia,” “a model American woman,” and “a powerful, marvelous citizen.”  Knowles notes that Rouse had already contributed to his own campaign, and speculates that Rouse probably didn’t realize that he and Keeton were both running in the same district.</p>
<p>In the county executive race council members Elizabeth Bobo and James Clark (no relation to Sen. James Clark, Jr.) compete to be the successor to J. Hugh Nichols, and square off over the development of new shopping centers: “Without planning, you have strips,” says Clark; Bobo responds, “You have to know when to say “no” to developers.” Zoning becomes a more personal issue in the District 2 campaign, as John Cugle tangles with the Office of Planning and Zoning over a wall constructed at a house he’d purchased.  Angela Beltram claims, “I wouldn’t have confidence in someone who would [flout] the zoning law when he makes zoning decisions.” Cugle laments, “I’m guilty of making a nice place for people to live.  . . .  The campaign lost because of a sheetrock wall?  God!”</p>
<p>(“District lines now certain,” February 6, 1986; “Ex-aide opts for council,” February 27, 1986, p.  16; “Cugle bids for council,” March 6, 1986, p.  18; “District residency waived for 1986,” March 6, 1986, p.  18; “Gray files for reelection,” March 20, 1996, p.  17; “Hickey enters race for east Columbia,” March 27, 1986, p.  23; “Bash for Keeton draws big names,” March 27, 1986, p.  23; “Bobo, Clark take aim,” April 10, 1986; “Cugle irked, says he fixed zoning flaw,” April 17, 1986, p.  24)</p>
<p>June&ndash;August 1986.  On the Republican side, businessman and local sports star Gilbert South announces his intention to run for county executive against Elizabeth Bobo, as Eddie Murray of the Baltimore Orioles attends the announcement and is mobbed by fans crying “Ed-dee, Ed-dee!” “What this means to me is indescribable,” South says of Murray’s presence, though Murray notes that he’s not actually a resident of Howard County and that he “didn’t know just yet” whether he would campaign for South.  South is joined by fellow Republican candidates Robert Flanagan and Chris McCabe, his companions in completing the recent Columbia Triathlon.</p>
<p>Current county executive J. Hugh Nichols stuns the council and other local politicians by announcing he’s resigning to accept a corporate job in New Orleans, and puts his house on the market that afternoon.  Elizabeth Bobo claims that she’s “not particularly surprised” (“He’s done it twice before with other offices”) and notes that Nichols “hasn’t been around much anyway.”  Nichols appoints county administrator William Eakle as acting county executive until September when Nichols’s accumulated leave runs out, after which the county charter requires that the council choose a successor of the same political party.  Since Nichols was elected as a Democrat but then switched to become a Republican, “this leaves you with something of a dilemma,” Nichols jokes to C. Vernon Gray.</p>
<p>As the deadline for filing approaches, more candidates come forward to contest the council district elections: Republican James Holway (a former council member) files in Council District 1, Robert Belsinger makes a last-minute decision to join three other Democratic candidates in District 2 (“A lot of friends thought I should [run]”), and Republican Charles Feaga sees three Democratic candidates vie to oppose him in District 5.  No Republican candidates file in Districts 3 and 4 by the deadline, but the Howard County Republican Central Committee finds two more candidates, Kay Koontz and William McDill, willing to compete in those districts, as part of its successful effort to field candidates for every local race.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>Howard County Republicans receive further good news as an increase in registered Republicans and a decline in registered Democratic produces a net gain of 3,027 registered voters, with six precincts (out of 62) now having a Republican majority (up from none ten months earlier).  However Republicans still face a 1.78-to-1 Democratic edge in registered voters.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>The more intense competition for council district seats results in an increased emphasis on fundraising.  C. Vernon Gray raises almost $33,000 for his campaign through the middle of August, almost eight times that of his opponent, Michael P. Hickey, who professes himself “amazed and shocked that somebody is raising that kind of money for a councilmanic election.”  Ruth Keeton raises over $20,000 for her council race in District 4, an amount opponent Lloyd Knowles calls “almost obscene”: “That’s something like two and one-half bucks for every Democrat in my district.”<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup></p>
<p>(“Republicans go South for exec,” June 19, 1986, p.  25; “Hugh calls it quits,” July 3, 1986, p.  1; “County races fill on last filing day,” July 3, 1986, p.  20; “Local filers listed,” July 3, 1986, p.  21; “GOP will compete in every local race,” July 17, 1986, p.  19; “GOP nets over 1,600 county voters,” July 31, 1986, p.  27; “Fund-raising called shocking, “obscene”,” August 28, 1986, p.  21)</p>
<p>In part 10 we’ll continue to follow the council campaigns of 1986 through the primary and general elections.</p>
<p>UPDATE: It was pointed out to me in private correspondence that I was underestimating fundraising for Mary Kay Sigaty in the 2010 election cycle, since she also received support from the separate Team 4 Slate.  I’ve corrected the relevant footnote below.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>All article references in this post are to the <em>Columbia Flier</em>; articles are available on microfilm at the <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=56">Central Branch</a> of the Howard County Library.  The <em>Flier</em>, the <em>Howard County Times</em>, and the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> do not have online archives for this period.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Recall from <a href="/2010/12/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-6/">part 6</a> of this series that the charter amendment of 1984 that introduced voting by districts did not specify the exact manner by which the council was to adopt district boundaries.  As previously noted in <a href="/2010/12/25/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-8/">part 8</a>, the county’s solicitor originally recommended passing the redistricting plan as a resolution, but the council decided to pass it as a bill in order to have it incorporated into the county code.  However if a petition drive had been successful in forcing a referendum, because the plan was passed as a bill the effect of the bill would have been suspended pending the outcome of the referendum&mdash;in other words, the 1986 election would have been another at-large election.</p>
<p>For the exact description of the council district boundaries see <a href="/public/howard-county-md-1986-cr-029.pdf">1986-CR-029</a>, “Resolution for the purpose of establishing councilmanic districts for Howard County, in accordance with provisions of the Howard County Charter” (adopted February 3, 1986); thanks go to Stephen LeGendre, Administrator to the Howard County Council, for providing an electronic copy of the resolution.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The complete list of council candidates in 1986 was as follows, with incumbents noted with an asterisk:</p>
<ul>
<li>District 1 (Elkridge/Savage/North Laurel): Shane Pendergrass, Mitchell Egber, and Charles Wehland (D); James Holway and Marilyn McNeill (R); Lewis Andrews (Ind).</li>
<li>District 2 (Ellicott City): Robert Belsinger, Angela Beltram, John Cugle, and Grace Kubofcik (D); Darrel Drown (R).</li>
<li>District 3 (east Columbia): C. Vernon Gray (*) and Michael P. Hickey (D); Kay Koontz (R); Harry Dunbar (Ind).</li>
<li>District 4 (west Columbia): Donald Carroll, Ruth Keeton (*), and Lloyd Knowles (*) (D); Bill McDill (R).</li>
<li>District 5 (western Howard): Alice Bender, Charles Boender, and Larry Yeager (D); Charles Feaga (R).</li>
</ul>
<p>Note that Lewis Andrews and Harry Dunbar ran as independents and hence did not compete in the primaries.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>Recall from <a href="/2010/12/24/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-7/">part 7</a> that in 1985 Democrats had an almost 2-to-1 edge in registered voters, with the goal of Howard County Republicans being to reduce that to 1.5-to-1.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>C. Vernon Gray’s $32,898 in funds raised through the middle of August 1986 (the most of any candidate) would be equivalent to over $65,000 in 2010, according to the <a href="http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=32898&amp;year1=1986&amp;year2=2010">CPI inflation calculator</a> from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The approximately $2.50 per registered Democrat claimed by Lloyd Knowles to be raised by Ruth Keeton at that point in the cycle would be equivalent to about $5 per Democrat today.</p>
<p>To put these figures in perspective, in 2010 Mary Kay Sigaty ran in a roughly equivalent council district to that of Keeton, and like her also faced significant opposition in the Democratic primary (from Alan Klein); Sigaty raised $43,562 over the entire 2010 cycle under her own name and also was the beneficiary of support from the Team 4 Slate, which raised $49,550.  If we assume as a first-order approximation that all the Team 4 Slate funds were intended for support of Sigaty then this would amount to a total of $93,112 or <del>about $2.20</del> almost $5 for each of the registered Democrats in her district (19,779 at the time of the primary), roughly equal to what Ruth Keeton had raised at an earlier point in the cycle.</p>
<p>The top fundraiser among all the 2010 council candidates was Courtney Watson, who raised over $170,000 in the 2010 election cycle, over $10 per registered Democrat in her district and about $5.30 per registered voter; Watson faced no opposition in the primary but significant opposition in the general election (from Robert Flanagan).  Note that this can’t be directly compared to C. Vernon Gray’s $32,898 noted above, even inflation-adjusted, since the figure quoted for Gray doesn’t cover the entire 1986 election cycle, but it does give at least a rough feel for the relative cost of campaigns then and now.</p>
<p>(Campaign finance statistics for 2010 are from the <a href="http://www.mdelections.org/campaign-finance/candidate">Maryland Elections Center</a>.  Voter registration statistics for the 2010 elections are from the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/BOE/BOEDOCS/Gubernatorial_Primary_2010_Precinct_by_Precinct.pdf">official 2010 primary results</a> and the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/BOE/BOEDOCS/GEMS_SOVC_REPORT_FINAL.pdf">unofficial 2010 general election results</a>.  For more background on 2010 campaign finances see the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> stories “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-10-28/news/bs-ho-friends-money-20101031_1_ulman-maryann-maher-trent-kittleman">Ulman spreads the wealth from campaign reserve</a>” and “<a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-11-24/news/bs-ho-politics-final-reports-20101124_1_trent-kittleman-howard-county-democrats-democratic-state">Political Notebook: Ulman, Democrats flush with cash</a>.”)&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Happy New Year to Howard County bloggers</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/01/happy-new-year-to-howard-county-bloggers/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 01 Jan 2011 18:29:27 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2011/01/01/happy-new-year-to-howard-county-bloggers/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;My last two posts were all about me, so I wanted to switch gears and wish a Happy New Year to all of the local Howard County bloggers and other local media mavens it’s been my privilege to read and (in many cases) meet:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To &lt;a href=&#34;http://53beersontap.typepad.com/&#34;&gt;53 Beers on Tap&lt;/a&gt;: May your blog overflow with comments, none of which need to be deleted.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbiachildpsychologist.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;Child Psych&lt;/a&gt;: May your diagnoses be perceptive and your treatments efficacious.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My last two posts were all about me, so I wanted to switch gears and wish a Happy New Year to all of the local Howard County bloggers and other local media mavens it’s been my privilege to read and (in many cases) meet:</p>
<p>To <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/">53 Beers on Tap</a>: May your blog overflow with comments, none of which need to be deleted.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://columbiachildpsychologist.blogspot.com/">Child Psych</a>: May your diagnoses be perceptive and your treatments efficacious.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://www.chrisbachmann.com/">Chris Bachmann</a>: May your servers always stay up, and your center progress.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://columbia2.wordpress.com/">Columbia 2.0</a>: May your town center become vibrant, and your opponents’ petitions and lawsuits be rejected.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://morucci.blogspot.com/">Do I Amuse You</a>: May your tweets always be amusing, and your screenplays green-lighted.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://hocomatt.blogspot.com/">HoCo Matt</a>: May you be happy even if you decide not to become HoCo Matt for real.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://www.hocomojo.com/">HoCoMoJo</a>: May your mobs always be flash and your videos very viewed.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com/">HoCo Politico</a>: May your business be successful, and your village well-planned.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/">HoCo Rising</a>: May you become more than “just a blogger.”</p>
<p>To <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/">HowChow</a>: May you find more delicious treats in unexpected places.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/">Hometown Columbia</a>: May your media always be social, and your generation generative.</p>
<p>To all the local <a href="http://www.patch.com/">Patches</a>: May your stories be hyper-local and your ventures hyper-successful.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com/">Sarah Says</a>: May your CSA deliveries be scrumptious and your sidewalks always paved.</p>
<p>To <a href="http://www.wordbones.com/">Wordbones</a>: May your projects be completed on schedule and your buildings be fully leased.</p>
<p>To other <a href="http://www.hocoblogs.com/">local bloggers</a> whom I might have inadvertently omitted: Best wishes to you too for the coming year, in both your blogging life and your rest-of-life life.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="74cb1370-002"><a href="http://www.jameshoward.us" title="jh@jameshoward.us">James P. Howard, II</a> - 2011-01-02 03:30</h4>
<p>Hey, what about those of us who get our points across in 140 characters or less?</p>
<h4 id="74cb1370-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2011-01-02 03:59</h4>
<p>Happy New Year to you too, of course! (Beg pardon for the omission, I just have not had time to keep up with Twitter, whether reading tweets or posting them.)</p>
<h4 id="74cb1370-004"><a href="http://www.jameshoward.us" title="jh@jameshoward.us">James P. Howard, II</a> - 2011-01-02 04:00</h4>
<p>Okay, I am down with that.</p>
<h4 id="74cb1370-005"><a href="http://sarahsaysblog.com" title="sarah@sarahsaysblog.com">Sarah</a> - 2011-01-02 15:28</h4>
<p>Thanks, Hecker! Happy new year to you!</p>
<h4 id="74cb1370-001"><a href="http://savage-guilford.patch.com" title="brian.hooks@patch.com">Brian Hooks</a> - 2011-01-04 19:19</h4>
<p>Speaking for all of the HoCo Patches, I say thanks Frank!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Looking forward to Howard County blogging in 2011</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/31/looking-forward-to-howard-county-blogging-in-2011/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 31 Dec 2010 22:33:07 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/31/looking-forward-to-howard-county-blogging-in-2011/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/30/my-howard-county-blogging-in-2010/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I reviewed my Howard County-related blog posts in 2010.  Now it’s time for a sneak preview of 2011.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, I will definitely continue doing Howard County blogging in the coming year (though I can’t guarantee any particular frequency), if for no other reason than to be able to go to &lt;a href=&#34;http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2010/12/only-27-days-away.html&#34;&gt;local blogger events&lt;/a&gt; and not shame myself as a lazy imposter.  The size of my audience is irrelevant, as I’m taking the advice of Nathan Marz: “&lt;a href=&#34;http://nathanmarz.com/blog/you-should-blog-even-if-you-have-no-readers.html&#34;&gt;you should blog even if you have no readers&lt;/a&gt;.”  In particular I’m a big fan of “learning by writing,” so I’ll probably be doing a fair amount of blogging where I’ll have no idea what I’m talking about at the beginning of a post (but hopefully not by the end).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my <a href="/2010/12/30/my-howard-county-blogging-in-2010/">previous post</a> I reviewed my Howard County-related blog posts in 2010.  Now it’s time for a sneak preview of 2011.</p>
<p>First, I will definitely continue doing Howard County blogging in the coming year (though I can’t guarantee any particular frequency), if for no other reason than to be able to go to <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2010/12/only-27-days-away.html">local blogger events</a> and not shame myself as a lazy imposter.  The size of my audience is irrelevant, as I’m taking the advice of Nathan Marz: “<a href="http://nathanmarz.com/blog/you-should-blog-even-if-you-have-no-readers.html">you should blog even if you have no readers</a>.”  In particular I’m a big fan of “learning by writing,” so I’ll probably be doing a fair amount of blogging where I’ll have no idea what I’m talking about at the beginning of a post (but hopefully not by the end).</p>
<p>I already have a lot of blog post topics I’d like to address in 2011, and rather than keeping them to myself I thought I’d write them down here as a way of encouraging myself to get them done.  Here’s some of the posts you can look forward to seeing from me this year (or not, as the case may be):</p>
<ul>
<li>The conclusion of my series on <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">Howard County Council redistricting</a>.  I plan on covering the redistricting efforts after both the 1990 and 2000 censuses, along with a wrap-up and look forward to the next redistricting effort.  Finishing this series will be my top priority.</li>
<li>A final post in my series on <a href="/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/">using R to analyze Howard County election data</a>, as promised in part 4 of that series.  I’ll be trying other techniques to estimate the relative fractions of Democratic, Republican, and “independent” voters in the 2010 general election.  I don’t know right now exactly how I’ll go about doing that, but I need to get cracking in order to finish this before the final election results (including turnout data) are released.</li>
<li>A series on Howard County and the 21st century global economy.  After being so pessimistic in my series on <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/">Howard County’s pretensions to be the next Silicon Valley</a>, I thought it was incumbent on me to offer a more positive vision&mdash;though I’m having trouble convincing myself that the vision I’ve come up with is actually realistic.  I guess we’ll see.</li>
<li>A series on Howard County and religion in the 21st century.  The role of religion in America is an important topic, and a potentially controversial one.  (See for example the comment threads on <em>HoCo Rising</em>’s posts on Islam.)  Plus Robert Putnam has a new book out (<a href="http://americangrace.org/">American Grace</a>) with lots of interesting and relevant survey data.  What’s not to like?</li>
<li>A series on Howard County and education in the 21st century.  Like religion, a topic both important and controversial.  The trick here will be to find a coherent theme.</li>
<li>A series on Howard County government that focuses on “<a href="http://www.gov2summit.com/gov2010">gov 2.0</a>” possibilities.  (I hate this term, but for better or worse it’s the one in common use for this sort of thing.)</li>
<li>A more in-depth look at Howard County population growth over the past fifty years, with a detailed breakdown of growth in individual census tracts.  In doing my council redistricting series one of the things that’s really impressed itself upon me is the extent to which the rapid growth of Columbia impacted Howard County.  It would be fun to explore that in more detail, possibly with some visualizations.</li>
<li>Random posts on Census 2010 data for Howard County.  One approach here would be to go back and do follow-ups on my previous posts based on the latest census data.  I’m particularly interested in seeing the census data on same-sex partners, which is new with the 2010 census.</li>
<li>It’s not directly Howard County-related, but I’d like to do at least two more posts in my “<a href="/2010/09/25/why-government-public-goods/">why government?</a>” series, one focusing on government regulation (really, “rulesets” in general) and one focusing on government and the promotion of social justice.</li>
<li>This is also not directly related to Howard County, but <em>is</em> Maryland-related: A post on the state’s legal restrictions on <a href="http://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/handbook/testing/directtoconsumer">direct-to-consumer genetic testing</a> as offered by <a href="https://www.23andme.com/">23andMe</a> and similar companies.  As genetic testing becomes ever cheaper (and especially as we enter the era of sub-$1,000 genome sequencing) I predict this is going to become a major issue, somewhat analogous to direct shipping in its pitting of sophisticated consumers against government paternalism and incumbent special interests.</li>
</ul>
<p>Note that the post ideas above are offered free for the taking if anyone else wants to try their hand at them.  I have no proprietary interest in the topics, I’d just like to see someone post on them, and I’ll try to do it if no one else will.  Also, if you have particular posts above that you’d most like to see, or ideas for other blog posts, please let me know.</p>
<p>Like <em>HoCo Rising</em>, I’m also planning to do some Howard County stuff beyond just blogging, in my case probably one or more of the projects I mentioned in my post on <a href="/2010/12/04/preserving-howard-countys-history-digitally/">preserving Howard County history in digital form</a>.  In particular I’m going to try to track down and get online some of the key historical documents related to council redistricting, and also may try to find and publish online some historical voter and election data that might be relevant to the next redistricting effort.</p>
<p>If I’m really ambitious and can find other people who share this interest and want to help, it might be fun to try putting together a public web site for “do it yourself” council redistricting, leveraging whatever historical data and materials I can collect together with some of the open source redistricting software other people are developing (e.g., from the <a href="http://www.publicmapping.org/">Public Mapping Project</a> or others).</p>
<p>Anyway, this is what I plan doing in 2011.  If I can get even half of it done I’ll count the year a success.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>My Howard County blogging in 2010</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/30/my-howard-county-blogging-in-2010/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 30 Dec 2010 22:53:08 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/30/my-howard-county-blogging-in-2010/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This is the week for everyone to do “looking back at 2010” reviews, and I’m no exception.  I thought this would be a good time to review my past year (really, past seven months) of blogging on Howard County topics, including presenting some site statistics and gathering in one place links to the various multi-part series of posts I’ve done.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In 2010 I did a total of 60 blog posts (not counting this one), of which 57 were focused on Howard County (more or less).  I didn’t actually post anything Howard County-related until May 19 (day 139), so in reality I did 57 Howard County posts over 226 days, or one post every four days.  Obviously I’m never going to be a post-per-day (much less multiple-posts-per-day) blogger in the mold of &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.wordbones.com/&#34;&gt;Wordbones&lt;/a&gt;; however given that I write pretty long posts and do a fair amount of research for each one, one post every four days is actually much better that I thought I’d do.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is the week for everyone to do “looking back at 2010” reviews, and I’m no exception.  I thought this would be a good time to review my past year (really, past seven months) of blogging on Howard County topics, including presenting some site statistics and gathering in one place links to the various multi-part series of posts I’ve done.</p>
<p>In 2010 I did a total of 60 blog posts (not counting this one), of which 57 were focused on Howard County (more or less).  I didn’t actually post anything Howard County-related until May 19 (day 139), so in reality I did 57 Howard County posts over 226 days, or one post every four days.  Obviously I’m never going to be a post-per-day (much less multiple-posts-per-day) blogger in the mold of <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/">HoCo Rising</a> or <a href="http://www.wordbones.com/">Wordbones</a>; however given that I write pretty long posts and do a fair amount of research for each one, one post every four days is actually much better that I thought I’d do.</p>
<p>Mine is the very definition of a “micro-niche” blog, and the traffic statistics for 2010 bear that out; the following table gives total page views for each month in 2010:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Month</th>
          <th>Page views</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>January</td>
          <td>2,101</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>February</td>
          <td>1,791</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>March</td>
          <td>1,991</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>April</td>
          <td>1,377</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>May</td>
          <td>1,694</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>June</td>
          <td>2,164</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>July</td>
          <td>1,783</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>August</td>
          <td>1,794</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>September</td>
          <td>2,771</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>October</td>
          <td>2,580</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>November</td>
          <td>2,817</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>December</td>
          <td>2,419</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>The average number of views was 2,107 per month or about 69 views per day.  It’s worth noting that in 2009 I did 46 posts total, of which only two were about Howard County (the rest being divided between Mozilla-related posts and posts on eMusic and other music-related topics), and my average number of views that year was 1,876 per month or about 62 views a day.  So it appears that I’m destined to attract a niche audience no matter what I blog about.</p>
<p>Here’s a (somewhat selective) list of posts (or series of posts) I published this year, in roughly chronological order and with additional commentary as appropriate:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>My series on the Taxpayer Protection Initiative (“<a href="/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/">Why the Taxpayer Protection Initiative is a bad idea</a>,” “<a href="/2010/05/23/what-would-the-founders-think-about-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/">What would the Founders think about the Taxpayer Protection Initiative?</a>,” “<a href="/2010/06/12/more-on-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/">More on the Taxpayer Protection Initiative</a>,” and “<a href="/2010/08/09/requiem-for-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/">Requiem for the Taxpayer Protection Initiative</a>”).  This was the topic that really got me started on doing Howard County blogging in a major way, after a few early posts in 2008 and 2009.  If I were writing these now I’d dial the snark down a couple of notches.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Ruminations on Howard County and a “sense of place” (“<a href="/2010/05/25/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county/">A sense of place in Howard County?</a>,” “<a href="/2010/06/02/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county-ctd/">A sense of place in Howard County? ctd.</a>,” and “<a href="/2010/06/05/what-is-a-sense-of-place/">What is a sense of place?</a>”).  Doing these posts inspired me to do my next series of posts (see the next item).  They also continued my questioning of the idea of Columbia being something more than just another DC-area exurban community.  (This skepticism dates back to my 2008 two-part series on <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/">income inequality and Howard County</a>.)</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“<a href="/2010/06/09/howard-county-and-the-21st-century-suburb/">Howard County and the 21st century suburb</a>.”  This post kicked off an ongoing set of multi-post series on the general topic of “Howard County in the 21st century.”  This proved to be a useful frame within which I could address a number of different topics relating to Howard County; I’m not done with it yet.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“<a href="/2010/06/19/howard-county-and-economic-inclusivity-in-the-21st-century/">Howard County and economic inclusivity in the 21st century</a>.”  My conclusion in this post was that Howard County by its nature will never be as economically diverse as a true city&mdash;not that there’s anything wrong with that.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“Howard County and ethnic diversity in the 21st century” (<a href="/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-1/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-2/">part 2</a>).  This is an area where I think the “Columbia vision” definitely did and does have a positive impact, although as I noted in part 2 that doesn’t mean that there won’t be bumps along the way.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“Howard County and civic equality in the 21st century” (<a href="/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-2/">part 2</a>, and <a href="/2010/07/28/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-3/">part 3</a>).  This series was meant to be a discussion of how cultural changes (including growing support for marriage equality) would affect gays and lesbians in Howard County, to some extent mirroring the situation with regard to ethnic diversity.  However I got sidetracked by the fascinating (to me at least) questions around estimating the size of the LGBT population at national, state, and county levels.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“Could Howard County be the Silicon Valley of cybersecurity?” (<a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-2/">part 2</a>, and <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-3/">part 3</a>).  In case you couldn’t tell from this series, I’m really tired of people claiming that this region or that could be the next Silicon Valley.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“<a href="/2010/09/12/voting-for-the-howard-county-democratic-central-committee/">Voting for the Howard County Democratic Central Committee</a>” and “<a href="/2010/09/16/howard-county-democratic-central-committee-2010-election-results/">Howard County Democratic Central Committee 2010 Election Results</a>.”  These two posts proved to be the most popular ones I did in 2010, with the former one attracting over a thousand views.  This doesn’t say anything about my competence as a blogger; rather I think it highlights the failure of the Howard County Democratic Central Committee and the local Democratic clubs to provide comprehensive online information to local Democratic voters.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“<a href="/2010/10/03/how-independent-are-howard-county-independents/">How independent are Howard County independents?</a>.”  My local take on the myth of the “independent” voter.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“Margins of error in Howard County polling” (<a href="/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2010/10/09/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-2/">part 2</a>).  This series was partly a consumer’s guide for local polling results reported in the media, and partly an excuse for me to re-learn some statistics.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“<a href="/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">Howard County likely voters in the 2010 general election</a>” and a <a href="/2010/10/20/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election-contd/">follow-up post</a>.  More on the assumptions that go into local polls, and my first foray into using the R statistical package.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“<a href="/2010/10/30/a-howard-county-democrat-looks-at-ed-priola/">A Howard County Democrat looks at Ed Priola</a>.”  I did this post mainly because <a href="http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com/">Trevor Greene</a> (unknowingly) dared me to do it.  I think we should have more in-depth profiles of local candidates; local media don’t seem to be that interested in doing them, so this may be a prime area for bloggers to fill the gap.  (See also <em>HoCo Rising</em>’s <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2010/09/brian-meshkin-unauthorized-biography.html">“unauthorized biography” of Brian Meshkin</a> for another example of this phenomenon.)</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“Exploring Howard County election data with R” (<a href="/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/">part 1</a>, <a href="/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/">part 2</a>, <a href="/2010/11/16/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-3/">part 3</a>, and <a href="/2010/11/17/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-4/">part 4</a>).  This series was mainly an excuse for me to learn more about R, but I thought it might be of more general interest.  Note that I promised a part 5 that I still haven’t delivered.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>“<a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">A history of Howard County Council redistricting</a>.”  This is the mother of all my multi-part series, at eight posts thus far with several yet to come.  (I’ve linked only to part 1, which contains an updated list of all the other posts.)  The post “<a href="/2010/11/29/howard-county-population-growth-1950-2009/">Howard County population growth, 1950-2009</a>” provides additional context.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Some other points about this blog that may be of interest:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>If you’re interested in seeing new Howard County-related posts as soon as they’re published (as opposed to coming back to the <a href="/">home page</a> now and then) you can use an RSS reader to subscribe to the blog’s Howard County-specific RSS feed (<code>[/category/howardcounty/feed/][catego]</code>).</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>If you’re interested in redistributing or otherwise reusing any of the material I publish, you’re <a href="/steal-this-blog/">free to do so</a>, as long as you provide proper attribution.</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>I encourage comments on my blog posts, and ask only that you use a consistent moniker for yourself when commenting, whether your real name or a pseudonym.  (I don’t care which.)  See also my posts on <a href="/2010/05/19/to-the-anonymous-commenters-of-howard-county/">anonymous commenters</a> and my personal <a href="/2010/06/03/to-the-pseudonymous-commenters-of-howard-county/">commenting policies</a>.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>In my next post I’ll look forward to 2011 and what it means for this blog.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>All values are from the summary tables displayed in the WordPress.com interface; the figure for December is as of 5 pm EST on December 30.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 8</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/25/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-8/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 25 Dec 2010 06:40:47 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/25/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-8/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;1985 was a busy year in Howard County Council districting news, so busy I’m having to split it into two parts.  &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/24/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-7/&#34;&gt;Part 7&lt;/a&gt; covered the creation and public unveiling of various proposed district plans, starting with Plans A, B, and C, and continuing with Plan F.  We pick up the story in the fall:&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;November 1985.  The county council holds public hearings on the three proposed district maps, ahead of the December date C. Vernon Gray had previously mooted; 32 people testify.  The Columbia Council and other Columbians ask that all of Columbia’s villages be included in the proposed Columbia districts, and not be split between districts. David Marker of the Columbia Democratic Club notes that in practice this would be difficult, and recommends the council adopt a variant of Plan E; Angela Beltram of the Ellicott City Democratic Club offers a similar proposal.  Republicans still favor a variant of Plan F.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1985 was a busy year in Howard County Council districting news, so busy I’m having to split it into two parts.  <a href="/2010/12/24/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-7/">Part 7</a> covered the creation and public unveiling of various proposed district plans, starting with Plans A, B, and C, and continuing with Plan F.  We pick up the story in the fall:<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>November 1985.  The county council holds public hearings on the three proposed district maps, ahead of the December date C. Vernon Gray had previously mooted; 32 people testify.  The Columbia Council and other Columbians ask that all of Columbia’s villages be included in the proposed Columbia districts, and not be split between districts. David Marker of the Columbia Democratic Club notes that in practice this would be difficult, and recommends the council adopt a variant of Plan E; Angela Beltram of the Ellicott City Democratic Club offers a similar proposal.  Republicans still favor a variant of Plan F.</p>
<p>The council splits 4&ndash;1 on which map to bring forward as the final choice.  The lone dissenter is Lloyd Knowles, who prefers district boundaries that keep all Columbia villages intact.  The map favored by the other council members puts most of Kings Contrivance and part of Owen Brown in a district with North Laurel, Savage, and Elkridge.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1865442422.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+3%2C+1985&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=County+Council+is+seeking+input+on+new+districts">County Council is seeking input on new districts</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878618392.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+10%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Countians+tell+their+views+on+redisricting">Countians tell their views on redistricting</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878623412.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+15%2C+1985&amp;author=Michael+J+Clark&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Districting+plan+gets+preliminary+OK+from+4+of+Howard%27s+5+council+members">Districting plan gets preliminary OK from 4 of Howard’s 5 council members</a>”)</p>
<p>December 1985.  The new Plan K favored by four of the council members is formally introduced, along with an alternate plan (dubbed the “Undivided Village Plan”) proposed by Lloyd Knowles.  Plan K reverts to numbering the districts, eliminating the color-coding suggested by Knowles and used with previous plans; it includes the following districts:<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<ul>
<li>District 1 (formerly the Orange District) covers the eastern part of the county and includes Elkridge, Savage, and North Laurel, along with part of Ellicott City and parts of Kings Contrivance and Owen Brown.</li>
<li>District 2 (formerly the Yellow District) includes most of Ellicott City along with Dorsey’s Search.</li>
<li>District 3 (formerly the Blue District) is the east Columbia district; it includes all of Oakland Mills and Long Reach, along with the remaining parts of Kings Contrivance and Owen Brown that were not split off into District 1.</li>
<li>District 4 (formerly the Red District) is the west Columbia district, including Town Center, Wilde Lake, Hickory Ridge, Harpers Choice, and River Hill.  It also includes some areas east of US 29 and north of MD 32.</li>
<li>District 5 (formerly the Green District) covers the western part of the county.</li>
</ul>
<p>District 1 is the largest district in population based on the 1980 census figures, at 2.6% above the “ideal” number of 23,714 (the county’s 1980 population of 118,572 divided by five).  District 3 is the smallest district, 3.0% below the ideal number.</p>
<p>Knowles’s alternative Undivided Village Plan succeeds in keeping each Columbia village within a single district, but requires three districts to ensure that all villages are incorporated: an East-Central District that includes Long Reach and Oakland Mills (and then extends past I-95 to the eastern boundary of the county), a Southeast district that includes Owen Brown and Kings Contrivance (along with Savage and North Laurel), and a West Central District that includes all the remaining villages west of US 29.  The two remaining districts in the Undivided Village Plan are the Northeast District containing Elkridge and most of Ellicott City, and a West District covering western Howard.</p>
<p>The Bethany Community Association strongly objects to the Undivided Village Plan for “effectively [giving] Columbia three councilpersons, while giving the majority of Howard County two”: “We’re supposed to be splitting the county into districts for the election of a County Council only; [the Undivided Village Plan] seems to split us into Howard County vs. Columbia!”  On the other hand, Dede Newport of the Howard County chapter of the National Organization for Women advocates the Undivided Village Plan as “more likely . . . to ensure the election of at least three Council members that share our concerns” based on past election results relating to ratification of the proposed Equal Rights Amendment and related issues: “[We] are not saying that ALL non-Columbians are lacking in support for equal rights or human values.  We are simply calling attention to obvious differences between Columbians and non-Columbians in AVERAGE degree of support.”</p>
<p>As the year ends the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> editorial board looks forward to the adoption of the final plan and seems to think that voters will reward those who create a fair and equitable scheme: “The final redistricting map must be adopted January 6.  It certainly will not please everyone.  But if it is done properly, Howard County citizens will remember who the mapmakers were when they go to the polls to select a new government.”</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1884608192.html?FMT=CITE&amp;FMTS=CITE:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Dec+15%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Districting+concerns+voiced">Districting concerns voiced</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1865557562.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Dec+22%2C+1985&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Districting%2FDividing+the+county">Districting/Dividing the county</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1865580482.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Dec+30%2C+1985&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=New+Political+Maps+in+Howard">New Political Maps in Howard</a>”)</p>
<p>January 1986.  In an attempt to allay concerns expressed by some Columbians and in response to the Columbia Council’s overwhelming endorsement of Lloyd Knowles’s Undivided Village Plan, C. Vernon Gray and Ruth Keeton propose several amendments to Plan K.  The most significant change is to extend District 3 (east Columbia) further eastward past I-95 all the way to US 1.  The modified plan also expands District 2 (Ellicott City) westward to include Turf Valley.</p>
<p>According to Gray the modified Plan K will keep all villages intact except for Owen Brown, of which 1,200 residents would be placed in another district due to the requirement to follow census block boundaries.  (Gray promises to work to get census block boundaries changed in future to ensure Owen Brown is not split across blocks.)  The result, according to Gray: 97% of Columbia will be within Districts 3 and 4, including 90% of Owen Brown.</p>
<p>However the proposed changes do little to mollify Columbia politicians and activists.  Columbia Council chair Pamela Mack complains that the District 1 and 2 boundaries were considered “sacrosant” while village boundaries were not, and Kay Fowler, vice-chair of the Long Reach village board, concludes, “In a word, Plan K stinks.” Residents of Elkridge aren’t happy either, as they were hoping to be included in District 2 with Ellicott City instead of in District 1 with Savage and North Laurel.  But “I think this thing is pretty well decided,” concludes Ed Huber, president of the Elkridge Citizens Association.</p>
<p>And indeed it is.  Lloyd Knowles argues that Plan K violates the right to a secret ballot, since the interaction between council district boundaries and congressional district boundaries would require the creation of a precinct south of MD 108 with but a single voter. However his objections prove fruitless as the council votes 4&ndash;1 to approve the amended Plan K, accompanied by sniping between Knowles and C. Vernon Gray.</p>
<p>Knowles dismisses Gray’s claim to have kept almost all of Columbia united, comparing Gray’s assurances to someone beheading a chicken and then consoling it: “never mind, Mr. Chicken, you’re 98% united.” Gray snaps back: “If you were more constructive when we put this plan together, we would have put this chicken together instead of the octopus you created.” Elizabeth Bobo regrets Knowles’s “unfair” comments.  She notes that the council faced a “very, very difficult task for all council members” and observes, “Districting, by definition, is fragmenting.”</p>
<p>No sooner is the ink dry on the final district plan than Charles Feaga announces his intention to run for the county council in District 5. Noting his runner-up performance in the 1982 at-large election, Feaga notes, “Last time I got a late start and still lost by only 1,000 votes,” and adds that he feels “so good this time” about his chances. Feaga also joins in criticism of the district plan: “We entrusted [the council members] to do the job, but they are five very angry and disappointed people.  Two could have put more work into districts. Three were constantly bickering.  What we ended up with proved to us exactly what gerrymandering meant.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile county executive J. Hugh Nichols finds his bid to be the Republican gubernatorial candidate isn’t going any better than his previous bid to be the Democratic candidate, as he receives no help from the Republican National Committee and can raise only about $30,000 on his own.  As his term winds down and rumors swirl about a possible referendum challenge to the district plan, Nichols declines to sign the districting bill passed by the council, on the grounds that it would set a “dangerous precedent” given the charter language putting responsibility for drawing district lines on the county council: “[It] was not my intent, nor do I believe it was the intent of others, that the executive have a role in the districting process.”<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>(All references are to the <em>Columbia Flier</em>: “‘Final’ plan for districts is introduced,” January 2, 1986, p. 16; “Final Lines: Council votes 4&ndash;1 for amended districting plan K,” January 9, 1986, p. 20; “GOP stalwart seeks council,” January 16, 1986, p. 22; “Anti-district petition rumored,” January 23, 1986, p.  23; “Nichols quits again, ‘maybe’,” January 23, 1986, p. 17)<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup></p>
<p>Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays to all of you who’ve been reading this series thus far.  Thanks to all of you who’ve commented on the posts or linked to them.  I’ll come back after the holidays to discuss the redistricting effort occasioned by the 1990 census, after first taking a <del>(hopefully) brief</del> detour to cover the county council and county executive elections of 1986 (in <a href="/2010/12/25/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-8/">part 9</a>) and 1990.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Note that the events covered by this post run through January 1986, while the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> online archive has an almost five-year gap beginning January 1, 1986.  I’ve therefore relied on articles from the <em>Columbia Flier</em> past the end of 1985.  Unfortunately these articles are available only on microfilm, at the Central Branch of the Howard County Library.  Ask the friendly folks at the information desk if you’re interested in reading the articles and need help with the microfilm readers (which, if you’re like me, you probably will).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>As noted in part 7, the problem was that Columbia’s 1980 population of 52,518 people was a bit too large for two districts, since two times the ideal district size of 23,717 plus a 5% “overage” per district would allow no more than 49,800 people to be included in two Columbia districts.  However Columbia’s population fell well short of making up three districts, which together would need to include at least 68,000 people.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>Note that I’m guessing at some of the details of Plan K, based on the graphics published in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> and the <em>Columbia Flier</em>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>To my knowledge the rumored petition drive to hold a referendum on the districting plan either failed or never got off the ground in the first place; unfortunately I don’t have the time to search through the <em>Columbia Flier</em> microfilm archives to determine exactly what happened (or didn’t, as the case may be).</p>
<p>As the <em>Columbia Flier</em> story notes, the districting plan was passed by the council as a bill, not as a resolution (as originally recommended by the solicitor Timothy Welsh), which is why there was a possibility of overturning it via a referendum in the first place.  (The council wanted the plan passed as a bill in order to make it part of the Howard County Code, and Welsh deemed that an acceptable alternative.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>For those interested in the gory details, the January 9, 1986, issue of the <em>Columbia Flier</em> includes a detailed text description of the district boundaries; see the story “Here are district boundaries” on pp. 20&ndash;21.&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 7</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/24/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-7/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 24 Dec 2010 00:21:53 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/24/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-7/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As we concluded &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-6/&#34;&gt;part 6&lt;/a&gt; of this series proponents of electing Howard County Council members by districts had finally achieved their goal of amending the county charter to require election by districts. In this post we’ll see how the council went about its appointed task of drawing up council district lines.  Yes, I realize that I’m now at part 7 and am just now getting to the ostensible topic of this history.  So, no more delays:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As we concluded <a href="/2010/12/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-6/">part 6</a> of this series proponents of electing Howard County Council members by districts had finally achieved their goal of amending the county charter to require election by districts. In this post we’ll see how the council went about its appointed task of drawing up council district lines.  Yes, I realize that I’m now at part 7 and am just now getting to the ostensible topic of this history.  So, no more delays:</p>
<p>January&ndash;June 1985.  Good news keeps coming for Howard County Republicans.  After Ronald Reagan’s landslide 1984 victory, the election of Robert Kittleman as delegate, and the vote in favor of county council districts, Republicans find themselves leading Democrats in new voter registrations, as high school students throughout the county opt for the GOP.  “We’re looking at a whole new generation of Republicans,” enthuses Central Committee chair Joan Athen.</p>
<p>The surge in Republican registered voters brings the Democratic registration advantage down to 1.9-to-1, with Athen’s goal to reduce it further to 1.5-to-1.  With the new district scheme to be in place for the 1986 county council election, Athen’s hopes are high: “I predict we’ll have a minimum of two seats, and very possibly three seats, go Republican.” Democratic chair Daniel Collins acknowledges the county’s shift to the right, but warns Athen her projections are “premature” given that district lines haven’t yet been drawn.</p>
<p>When exactly those lines will be drawn becomes an open question, as June rolls around and the council has not yet started work on districting.  Roger Marino of the Greater Howard County Chamber of Commerce asks the council to give “urgent consideration” to the districting effort, and recommends it appoint a citizens commission to provide advice.  Council chair C. Vernon Gray promises work will start once the council finishes dealing with a comprehensive zoning initiative, with public hearings to follow before the end of the year.</p>
<p>Meanwhile visitors to the council’s booth at the Columbia City Fair are invited to try their own hand at drawing district lines, using pencils and tracing paper.  The League of Women Voters also joins the fun, issuing a pamphlet “The Councilmanic Districting Game” that contains all the rules and data (including a list of precincts and their populations) that voters need to play.  (As the pamphlet states, “Cutting up Howard county is not a Trivial Pursuit.  No one has a Monopoly.  Get involved now or be Sorry!”)  <em>Baltimore Sun</em> columnist Thom Leverro asks readers to send in their own district maps, “crayons and finger paint . . . allowed”.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>In other news, county executive J. Hugh Nichols sets his eyes on the governor’s mansion, only to find a general lack of interest and several better-known and -funded candidates ahead of him, including Baltimore mayor William Donald Schaefer.  Elizabeth Bobo formally declares her intent to run for county executive in 1986, with council members Ruth Keeton and Nichols ally James Clark also rumored as possibilities.  Nichols waits on endorsing a successor (“I’m not going to name names”) and notes that only three local office holders have endorsed his own gubernatorial bid.</p>
<p>Frustrated by lack of Democratic support for his gubernatorial bid, Nichols drops out of the race.  He’s besieged with requests from Republicans (including Vice President George H.W. Bush) that he become the credible gubernatorial candidate the Maryland GOP lacks, and announces he’s switching parties.  A GOP insider notes that Nichols’s chances will depend on the Democratic candidate (“If it’s Don Schaefer Nichols might as well not run.  . . .  If it’s Steve Sachs, it’s a whole new ball game”) and expresses skepticism about Nichols receiving funding from the national Republican party (“[I] doubt that any serious national money will come in.  . . .  They’re always promising money.”).</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1884571282.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+28%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Republicans+are+on+a+roll">Republicans are on a roll</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878509732.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jun+9%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Districting+proponents+urge+Coucil+start+division">Districting proponents urge Council start division</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878523312.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jun+16%2C+1985&amp;author=Thorn+Loverro&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Get+out+a+pencil+and+paper---and+create+a+district">Get out a pencil and paper&mdash;and create a district</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878355982.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+18%2C+1985&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Nichols%27s+Bad+Start">Nichols’s Bad Start</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878484642.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=May+12%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzl+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Race+starts+slowly+for+county+executive">Race starts slowly for county executive</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878527322.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jun+19%2C+1985&amp;author=C+Fraser+Smith&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Nichols+to+join+GOP%2C+still+eyeing+State+House">Nichols to join GOP, still eyeing State House</a>”)</p>
<p>July 1985.  The council starts working in earnest on redistricting, with clerical assistance from Anabel Fishman, who (unbeknownest to C. Vernon Gray and others) once headed an anti-districting advocacy group.  Council members express confidence that the process can be done quickly and without undue worrying about political biases.  Gray (who previously worked on a state redistricting commission) states “We did the entire state in about six months.  I don’t think it’s going to take that long for the county.” Ruth Keeton adds, “There are bigger considerations than [politics] to take care of.”</p>
<p>Former Prince Georges county council member Gerard McDonough (a veteran of redistricting in that county) expresses skepticism: “They’re blowing smoke if they’re trying to preach that it’s not 100 percent pure politics.” However the council’s task is made easier because only two of the current council members (C. Vernon Gray and Lloyd Knowles) plan to run for re-election: James Clark is not planning to run again, while Elizabeth Bobo is running for county executive (to replace J. Hugh Nichols) and Ruth Keeton may do so as well.</p>
<p>Based on the 1980 census (which counted 118,572 people in Howard County), each of the five districts will have about 24,000 people, with up to a 5% variance allowed based on previous court rulings. Conventional wisdom is that Columbia will be divided into two districts (east and west of Route 29), with the remaining three districts being Ellicott City-Elkridge, western Howard, and southern Howard.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1865136852.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jul+14%2C+1985&amp;author=Phillip+Davis&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Howard+starts+to+redraw+districts">Howard starts to redraw districts</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1865179492.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jul+28%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Ex-districting+foe+is+hired">Ex-districting foe is hired</a>”)</p>
<p>September 1985.  Anabel Fishman presents three proposed redistricting plans (labelled “A,” “B,” and “C”) to the council for its consideration.  Plan A extends the western Howard district to include parts of Ellicott City south of Route 40 and west of Centennial Lane, and the western Columbia district to include Clarksville.  Plan B puts all of Ellicott City in a single district, and lumps Elkridge in with Savage.  Plan C has two Columbia districts and then divides western Howard between a northern district that takes in parts of Ellicott City and a southern district that runs from Glenelg through Kings Contrivance all the way to the Whiskey Bottom area near Laurel; the proposed fifth district includes Ellicott City, Elkridge, and Savage.</p>
<p>Unfortunately the council has to spend the next session correcting mistakes in the plans presented in the first session, including re-specifying districts by census tracts rather than by precincts. The Office of Planning and Zoning cautions the council to allow more time in future for preparing maps, while Lloyd Knowles floats the idea of ditching district numbers and naming districts based on colors (“Blue” or “Yellow”) or jewels (“Diamond” or “Pearl”).  A fourth map is submitted for consideration, with two more maps promised before the field is winnowed down to three prior to public hearings.</p>
<p>Meanwhile C. Vernon Gray decides that the grass is electorally greener in east Columbia and moves from his Dorsey Hall home to a rented townhouse in Phelps Luck.  “I have a lot of friends and volunteers on the east side of [US] 29,” Gray notes.  Some question Gray’s eligibility, given that the charter amendment requires council members to live in their district for two years prior to their running for election, but Gray dismisses this argument, noting that there are as yet no districts for him to be a resident of.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1865312052.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+11%2C+1985&amp;author=Phillip+Davis&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=3+plans+offered+for+Howard%27s+voting+districts">3 plans offered for Howard’s voting districts</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878597792.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+22%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Districting+session+spent+fixing+previous+mistakes">Districting session spent fixing previous mistakes</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878597802.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+22%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Councilman%27s+new+home+offers+councilmanic+view">Councilman’s new home offers councilmanic view</a>”)</p>
<p>October 1985.  College student Michael Deets, who previously submitted his own districting proposals, rips into the council’s proposed districts, especially objecting to Plan A, which divides Elkridge in two, puts part of Owen Brown in a non-Columbia district, and includes Allview Estates in a district with west Columbia.  Regarding Allview Estates in particular he asks, “Will the members of the County Council show no mercy to a community which for years fought the Columbia designation on their mailing address?”<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>As it turns out Plan A is history, as the council approves three plans, B, E, and F, for further consideration, each with five color-coded districts: Yellow, Green, Orange, Blue, and Red (apparently adopting Lloyd Knowles’s previous suggestion).  The Red District covering west Columbia is most crowded with potential candidates, with incumbents Knowles and Ruth Keeton facing a possible challenge from university professor Donald Carroll.  C. Vernon Gray has the east Columbia Blue District all to himself, and the other three districts are wide open as Elizabeth Bobo and James Clark look to run for county executive.  The proposed Green District covers western Howard, with the Yellow and Orange districts dividing up the rest of eastern Howard sans Columbia.</p>
<p>Plans B and E are generally similar, with Plan F taking a different approach: Its Yellow District includes only part of Ellicott City (lumping the rest in with western Howard in the Green district), and expands the Orange District in eastern and southeastern Howard all the way west to Highland.  Plan F also sharply divides the two parties. County Republican chair Joan Athen’s “gut feeling” is that “[Plan] F would the only acceptable one of the three,” while Democratic Central Committee member James Kraft objects: “Plan F is out completely.  . . . It holds the potential for three Republican seats.” Districting advocate D. Craig Horn sides with Athen in favoring Plan F, claiming that Plans B and E violate the charter requirement that a district have “common interest” both by having a Orange District that includes both Elkridge at the north and North Laurel in the south (with mostly warehouses in between), and (echoing Michael Deets) also by lumping Allview Estates in with western Columbia’s Red District.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1881948722.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+6%2C+1985&amp;author=Micheal+J+Deets&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Districting+plan+deemed+faulty">Districting plan deemed faulty</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1865379662.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+13%2C+1985&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Council+gives+nod+to+5+districts%2C+divided+by+3+plans">Council gives nod to 5 districts, divided by 3 plans</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1881961322.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+27%2C+1985&amp;author=D+Craig+Horn&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Plan+F+is+closest+to+charter+goals">Plan F is closest to charter goals</a>”)</p>
<p>This post has run a bit long, so I’ll conclude the story of the first redistricting effort in part 8, as the council moves further through the alphabet in generating redistricting plans.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The idea of inviting citizens to try their hand at redistricting might be worth updating for the Internet era.  I plan to discuss this general topic in a future blog post once I finish this series.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>In 1980 the population of the Columbia CDP was 52,518, or just over twice the ideal district size of 23,714.  (See Census publication PC80-1-B22, <a href="http://www2.census.gov/prod2/decennial/documents/1980a_mdABC-02.pdf">General Population Characteristics, Maryland</a>, Table 14.  CDP stands for <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Census-designated_place">Census-Designated Place</a>, a term used for unincorporated population centers.)  However the Columbia CDP included (and includes) some areas not part of the Columbia planned community proper, so the actual Columbia population would have been somewhat less.</p>
<p>By way of comparison, note that the population of the Ellicott City CDP in the 1980 census was 21,784, or just a bit smaller than the ideal district.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>At some point Michael Deets was elected to the Howard County Republican Central Committee, and he will appear again in this series; however I don’t believe he was on the Central Committee in 1985.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 6</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-6/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 16 Dec 2010 18:51:40 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-6/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/15/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-5/&#34;&gt;part 5&lt;/a&gt; of this series nothing much happened in relation to actually doing something about council districts (as opposed to just talking about their potential effect, as in the case of Charles Feaga’s unsuccessful 1982 council bid).  In this post “doing something” moves to the fore.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1983.  The council district controversy continues to attract attention.  Attorney C. William Michaels uses one of his weekly &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt; “County Counsel” columns to make the case against council districts: “[Districts] would not solve the problem of urban-rural rivalry, but only crystallize and intensify it.  . . .  Columbia and Howard county are inextricably intertwined.  . . .  Columbia residents are hard to convince about . . . the interests they should have in preserving [the county’s] unique and very special mix of urban, rural, and suburban life.  Columbia residents need to be convinced of this rather than being given up for lost.” He proposes resurrecting the idea of incorporating Columbia, to “give Columbia its own power base, and its own political spokesperson”.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/12/15/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-5/">part 5</a> of this series nothing much happened in relation to actually doing something about council districts (as opposed to just talking about their potential effect, as in the case of Charles Feaga’s unsuccessful 1982 council bid).  In this post “doing something” moves to the fore.</p>
<p>1983.  The council district controversy continues to attract attention.  Attorney C. William Michaels uses one of his weekly <em>Baltimore Sun</em> “County Counsel” columns to make the case against council districts: “[Districts] would not solve the problem of urban-rural rivalry, but only crystallize and intensify it.  . . .  Columbia and Howard county are inextricably intertwined.  . . .  Columbia residents are hard to convince about . . . the interests they should have in preserving [the county’s] unique and very special mix of urban, rural, and suburban life.  Columbia residents need to be convinced of this rather than being given up for lost.” He proposes resurrecting the idea of incorporating Columbia, to “give Columbia its own power base, and its own political spokesperson”.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1789791842.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+30%2C+1983&amp;author=C+William+Michaels&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Proposed+Councilmanic+districts+could+divide+residents+on+issues">Proposed Councilmanic districts could divide residents on issues</a>”)</p>
<p>January&ndash;August 1984.  A new movement forms to elect council members by district.  It proposes having five districts, with a requirement that districts be “compact, contiguous, substantially equal in population, and have common interest as a result of geography, occupation, history, or existing political boundaries.” Opponents of the proposal include Democratic council members Lloyd Knowles and C. Vernon Gray.  Knowles comments, “You’d end up having a very parochial Council that doesn’t look out for the county as a whole,” while Gray states “I do not see a rationale for it.” Proponents include Democratic county executive J. Hugh Nichols and Democratic council member James Clark (not to be confused with state senator James Clark, Jr.). Council chair Elizabeth Bobo sees both “positives and negatives” in council districts.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>The group Howard Countians for Councilmanic Districts starts a petition drive to get a district proposal on the ballot.  James Mundy of HCCD advocates council districts as a way to promote accountability of council members and “service this county’s diversity a little better.”  He dismisses concerns about reducing Columbia’s voting power, noting that Columbia’s population growth was projected to taper off while the rest of the county caught up, so that council districts could be drawn to be “homogeneous [and] geographically “sensible”.”</p>
<p>Most opinion divides on similar lines as before: Republican state delegate Robert Kittleman speaks out in favor of the proposal, while the Columbia Council opposes it.  However the Howard County Human Rights Commission surprises some by unanimously opposing council districts as “divisive and detrimental to the progress of human rights in the county,” based largely on the contention that census figures showed minorities were dispersed throughout the county.  Commission member Herbert Wheeles notes that “I don’t see how they could draw up districts without seriously diluting the [minority] vote”.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>The commission’s decision occurs at the same time that Howard and twelve other counties are being audited by Maryland attorney general Stephen Sachs as part of an investigation into whether at-large elections are producing illegal discrimination.  Council district proponent D. Craig Horn finds the commission’s action “curious,” claiming that the district proposal had been endorsed by the NAACP and noting that in general “minority groups tend to congregate.”</p>
<p>After eight months of work by over 300 people soliciting signatures, council district proponents turn in over 13,000 signatures on a petition to place their proposal on the November ballot, well more than the 10,000 signatures needed and exceeding their goal of 12,000.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1864192122.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jan+18%2C+1984&amp;author=Elisabeth+Hoffman&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=New+drive+forms+to+elect+Council+members+by+district">New drive forms to elect Council members by district</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1864584282.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=May+23%2C+1984&amp;author=Stuart+Low&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=New+drive+forms+to+seek+Council+by+district+voting">New drive forms to seek Council by district voting</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1862037492.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+24%2C+1984&amp;author=Robert+Kitt...man&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Kitt...eman+favors+district+elections">Kittleman favors district elections</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1861989982.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+10%2C+1984&amp;author=Rick+Belz&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Columbia+Council+opposes+councilmanic+districting">Columbia Council opposes councilmanic districting</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1861953032.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+26%2C+1984&amp;author=Steve+Kelly&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Districting+finds+unusual+foe">Districting finds unusual foe</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1858984422.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Aug+22%2C+1984&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=District+election+nears+ballot+as+group+offers+petitions">District election nears ballot as group offers petitions</a>”)</p>
<p>November 1984.  By a 58%&ndash;42% margin (26,353 to 18,939) Howard County voters approve Question A, a charter amendment to elect county council members by district.  Council members are to be elected from individual districts, of which the members must be residents:<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<blockquote>
<p>The legislative power of the County is vested in the County Council of Howard County which shall consist of five members who shall be elected from the Councilmanic Districts.  . . .</p>
<p>Each of the members of the Council shall be nominated and elected by the qualified voters of the Councilmanic District in which he or she resides.  Each Councilmanic District shall elect one Council member.  . . .</p>
<p>Each candidate for the council shall have resided in the County for a period of not less than two years immediately prior to nomination; shall be a registered voter; and shall be a resident of the Council District which the candidate seeks to represent at the time of filing for candidacy and during the full term of office; . . .</p>
<p>If any member of the County Council shall move his or her residence from the Councilmanic District in which he or she has resided at the time of his or her election, such member shall immediately forfeit his or her office, but no member shall be affected by any redistricting during the balance of the then current term of office.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The measure leaves it up to the County Council to determine district lines:<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup></p>
<blockquote>
<p>The boundaries of the Councilmanic Districts shall be established by the Council subsequent to the publication of each decennial census of the population of the United States, but not later than March 15 of the year following such publication.  Any Councilmanic District established in accordance with this Article shall be compact, contiguous, substantially equal in population, and have common interest as a result of geography, occupation, history, or existing political boundaries.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>while a transitional provision (Section 1202) requires the first council districts to be set by March 15, 1986.</p>
<p>Republican state delegate Robert Kittleman hails the vote as “the dawning of the two-party system in Howard County” while Howard County Democratic chair James Kraft decries the district scheme as making election of minority candidates more difficult.  Elizabeth Bobo reminds district proponents that Columbia and Ellicott City will continue to have most of the county population, and Kraft sees the districts as being drawn in a politically pragmatic manner: “You’ve got to remember&mdash;the five Council members are going to draw the map.  They aren’t stupid.” The <em>Baltimore Sun</em> urges council members to “undertake [their] ticklish mission judiciously and quickly,” even if “some of them will be writing their own political obituaries.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile a semi-random sampling of county bar-goers asked about the new district scheme seems somewhat unclear on the concept and suspicious of the motivation behind the question (“What’re ya, a historian?,” a bartender asks a reporter).  But one Wilde Lake resident sees an unexpected blessing: “The county could solve its financial problems for years to come by selling tickets to the meetings where they’re going to draw the councilmanic district lines.”</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1862066532.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+1%2C+1984&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Howard+county+charter">Howard County Charter</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1862076052.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+8%2C+1984&amp;author=Phillip+Davis&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Forecasts+vary+on+effect+of+new+Howard+districts">Forecasts vary on effect of new Howard districts</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1862100482.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+14%2C+1984&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=District+win+gives+Council+hot+duty+of+drawing+map">District win gives Council hot duty of drawing map</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1862134302.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+24%2C+1984&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=New+Districts+in+Howard">New Districts in Howard</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1862100492.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+14%2C+1984&amp;author=William+F+Zorzi+Jr&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=%27What%27s+a+district%3F%27+county+residents+ask">‘What’s a district?’ county residents ask</a>”)</p>
<p>In <a href="/2010/12/24/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-7/">part 7</a> and other future posts in this series we’ll see whether council districting proved as entertaining as promised.  Note that because of holiday obligations I’ve had to slow down the pace of new installments, so please be patient!</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="81a99691-001">Ken Stevens (kstevens8@verizon.net) - 2010-12-19 23:14</h4>
<p>I don&rsquo;t remember exactly why that language about compactness and contiguity of Council districts was chosen. But it wasn&rsquo;t unusual or unprecedented as criteria. See: <a href="http://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/bd/bdy/bdy">http://aceproject.org/ace-en/topics/bd/bdy/bdy</a>_us <a href="http://www.redistrictingthenation.com/glossary.aspx">http://www.redistrictingthenation.com/glossary.aspx</a></p>
<h4 id="81a99691-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-12-20 14:02</h4>
<p>Ken, thanks again for the comments. These are very useful and informative references.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>C. William Michaels wrote his <em>Sun</em> column <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/results.html?st=advanced&amp;QryTxt=&amp;type=historic&amp;sortby=CHRON&amp;datetype=0&amp;frommonth=09&amp;fromday=16&amp;fromyear=1990&amp;tomonth=12&amp;today=11&amp;toyear=2010&amp;By=C.+William+Michaels&amp;Title=&amp;restrict=articles">from 1981 through 1983</a>.  According to an <a href="http://www.libertycoalition.net/free-space-no-greater-threat-author-chuck-michaels-kevin-rollins">online biography</a> Michaels later became active in various peace and social justice groups in the Baltimore area, and more recently was author of the book <a href="http://www.algora.com/110/book/details.html">No Greater Threat: America After September 11 and the Rise of a National Security State</a>.</p>
<p>In the early 1980s Michaels was fairly young (late twenties), and it’s hard to resist the idea of him as a liberal pre-blogging version of <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/">HoCo Rising</a>.  I guess that means it’s about time for some local news outlet (<a href="http://columbia.patch.com/">Patch</a>?) to give HCR a more formal outlet for his opinions.  (Or perhaps HCR can mine Michaels’s old columns for blog post ideas, for example updating the “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1787239472.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+8%2C+1982&amp;author=C+William+Michaels&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Test+your+citizen+IQ+with+First+Annual+Counsel+Quiz">Test your citizen IQ</a>” column Michaels ran in September 1982.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Given that the “compact, contiguous, etc.” language of the proposal was eventually adopted into the Howard County charter (and indeed, <a href="http://library6.municode.com/default-test/DocView/14680/1/4/6">remains there</a> to this day), I’m curious as to how and why that exact formulation was chosen.  Was it modeled on existing district schemes in other jurisdictions?  Did it reflect language used in state or Federal court cases on redistricting?  I invite knowledgeable readers to add their thoughts in the comments section.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>I find it odd that neither Wheeles nor anyone else quoted in the article mentioned Vernon Gray’s successful 1982 election as an at-large council member, in which he defeated Charles Feaga even though Feaga benefited from “single-shot” voting as the sole Republican candidate.  Wouldn’t Gray’s success as a minority candidate have been relevant to the question under discussion?&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>The language quoted is from the Howard County charter as of November 6, 1990, the first version after the original 1968 version that I could find at the Howard County Library Central Branch.  If I can obtain an electronic copy of the 1984 version of the charter I’ll post it and link to it.</p>
<p>The language relating to council districts and the redistricting process is in Section 202, subsections (a), (b), and (f).&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>Note that the 1984 charter language left some ambiguity as to how exactly the Council was to do redistricting, and whether the Council’s action was subject to the county executive’s veto as provided for by Section 209(f).  The consequences of this ambiguity proved to be fairly significant, as we shall see in future posts.&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 5</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/15/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-5/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 15 Dec 2010 18:27:46 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/15/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-5/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-4/&#34;&gt;part 4&lt;/a&gt; of this series proponents of Howard County Council districts failed to get a referendum on the ballot in the November 1980 general election.  In this post the council district controversy provides the backdrop for Howard County politics in the early 1980s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;(Readers of this series should also check out the comments from Ken Stevens on &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/#ddf3064d-005&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-3/#bb8ebb0c-002&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt; for some informative insights from someone who was involved in the events in question.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-4/">part 4</a> of this series proponents of Howard County Council districts failed to get a referendum on the ballot in the November 1980 general election.  In this post the council district controversy provides the backdrop for Howard County politics in the early 1980s.</p>
<p>(Readers of this series should also check out the comments from Ken Stevens on <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/#ddf3064d-005">part 1</a> and <a href="/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-3/#bb8ebb0c-002">part 3</a> for some informative insights from someone who was involved in the events in question.)</p>
<p>1981&ndash;1982.  Democratic dominance of Howard County continues, as long-time political allies county executive J. Hugh Nichols and state senator James Clark, Jr., team up to place their associates and (in Clark’s case) relatives in various positions of power.  Howard countians even get a chance to vote for another James Clark, a candidate for county council.  Clark is no relation to senator Clark, but is the husband of Lillian Clark, Nichols’s transportation coordinator and the campaign manager for senator Clark’s second cousin, E. Alexander Adams.  (“It’s a cheap political trick to fool people in the voter’s booth,” fumes an angry Central Committee candidate.)</p>
<p>Columbia Democratic Club president James Kraft notes that Nichols “demands absolute loyalty.”  Nichols agrees (“I wouldn’t tolerate disloyalty”), and explains how he runs his administration: “When you’re careful and select professionals who are team players, then you have professionals who can follow the team plan.”</p>
<p>Nichols’s “Independent Team” of county council candidates, previously unsuccessful in the 1978 council elections, tries again in 1982; opposing them in the crowded Democratic primary (13 candidates for five seats) are the “Democratic Team” of council incumbents Elizabeth Bobo, Ruth Keeton, and Lloyd Knowles.  Bobo, previously rumored to be considering a run for county executive, is courted by Nichols for his slate; although she “agree[s] with about 95 percent of the legislation Hugh Nichols sends down,” she declines: “I’m not pledging 100 percent allegiance to anyone.”</p>
<p>Nichols protege James Clark manages to win nomination but otherwise the “Independent Team” goes down to defeat in September.  Opponents of Nichols hail the primary results as a rejection of “bossism,” as Nichols consoles himself: it’s “better than four years ago when we didn’t have any.”  Nichols and senator Clark themselves are unopposed in the primary.</p>
<p>On the other side of the aisle, after the death of former Republican commissioner and county council member Charles E. Miller, “a 23-year-old truck terminal manager and a 40-year-old auto shop teacher” (David Maier and Phil Goodall respectively) spend their nighttime hours trying to revive a moribund Howard County Republican party organization.  A recent migrant from Montgomery County, Goodall expresses surprise at how “invisible” the GOP is in Howard County: “It was hard to find anyone in the party to contact.”</p>
<p>Despite an overwhelming Democrat edge in registered voters, Howard County Republicans find reasons to hope.  Central Committee chair (and college senior) Will Neumann looks to attract moderates into the party, while Goodall notes the presence of “conservative Democrats in the county who would vote for a strong Republican candidate.”  Energized by Ronald Reagan’s carrying Howard County (by 24,272 votes to 20,702 votes for Jimmy Carter), they envision translating Reagan’s national success into success at the local level.</p>
<p>However Howard County Republicans have trouble finding anyone to run for county council, finally persuading “conservative western county farmer” Charles Feaga to stand as the lone GOP council candidate.  Feaga highlights his positions opposing public sector unions and in favor of capital punishment and electing council members by districts.</p>
<p>No Republican candidates step forward to run against Nichols or senator Clark, but Robert Kittleman and John Vandenberge sign up to run for delegate against Hugh Burgess and Edward Kasemeyer.  “Moral-issue oriented” Vandenberge goes on the attack against Burgess, whom he claims “voted to allow pornographic movies to be shown in neighborhood theaters.”  Kittleman notes that he doesn’t always agree with Vandenberge, but concludes, “Republicans have a long, hard road to get elected in Howard county.  We’ve got to stick together.”<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1787108542.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jul+25%2C+1982&amp;author=Gail+A+Campbell&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Nichols%2C+Clark+virtually+control+Howard">Nichols, Clark virtually control Howard</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1787250122.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+15%2C+1982&amp;author=Gail+A+Campbell&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Nichols+slate+finds+going+rough">Nichols slate finds going rough</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1787273852.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+22%2C+1982&amp;author=Elisabeth+Hoffman&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Two+who+didn%27t+run+may+have+lost+most">Two who didn’t run may have lost most</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1791787152.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+27%2C+1980&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Pair+works+nights+trying+to+revive+lifeless+Howard+GOP+organization">Pair works nights trying to revive lifeless Howard GOP organization</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1878048362.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+16%2C+1980&amp;author=K+Deborah+Taub&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Revived+GOP+plans+on+storming+Howard+county+next+election">Revived GOP plans on storming Howard county next election</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1787378072.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+26%2C+1982&amp;author=Gail+A+Campbell&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=GOP+has+uphill+battle+in+Howard+county">GOP has uphill battle in Howard county</a>”)</p>
<p>November 1982.  60% of Howard County’s 65,801 registered voters turn out as Democrats take advantage of a greater than 2&ndash;1 registration advantage (40,218 to 17,462, with 8,121 unaffliated or other) to win every county position.  Nichols is reelected as county executive unopposed, while council incumbents Bobo, Keeton, and Knowles win another term.  Nichols puts one of his own on the council as James H. Clark is elected; Clark is joined by C. Vernon Gray, the first black council member, who defeats Charles Feaga for the fifth at-large seat.</p>
<p>Unsuccessful at the county level, Howard County Republicans console themselves with Robert Kittleman’s “upset” victory over Hugh Burgess.  Kittleman becomes “the first member of the county GOP to go to Annapolis in 61 years.”  Republicans also note that Charles Feaga received heavy support outside Columbia and benefited from “single-shot” voting as the sole Republican candidate, raising the possibility that Feaga could have achieved victory if a council district system were in place.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1787397382.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+3%2C+1982&amp;author=Gail+A+Campbell&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Democrats+sweep%3B+first+black+seated">Democrats sweep; first black seated</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1787423012.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+10%2C+1982&amp;author=Elisabeth+Hoffman&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Elections+boost+Republican+morale">Elections boost Republican morale</a>”)</p>
<p>In <a href="/2010/12/16/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-6/">part 6</a> of this series we’ll see council district proponents regroup and try one more time to put a district proposal on the ballot.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The <em>Baltimore Sun</em> story “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1787378072.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+26%2C+1982&amp;author=Gail+A+Campbell&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=GOP+has+uphill+battle+in+Howard+county">GOP has uphill battle in Howard county</a>” has lots of other great tidbits, including a spat between the Republican candidates for delegate in District 13B, Reagan supporter Julia Brown (founder of the <a href="http://www.juliabrownmontessorischools.com/home.html">Julia Brown Montessori Schools</a>) and “trust-busting Teddy Roosevelt Republican” Donald Messenger, who notes that “On the issues . . . I’d say I’m a lot more like a Democrat.”  However the story is worth checking out if for no other reason than its picture of a handsome, resolute Charles Feaga at the wheel of his tractor.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Preserving Howard County’s history, digitally</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/04/preserving-howard-countys-history-digitally/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 04 Dec 2010 01:09:28 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/04/preserving-howard-countys-history-digitally/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Thursday I happened to be in the vicinity of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=66&#34;&gt;Miller branch&lt;/a&gt; of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hclibrary.org/&#34;&gt;Howard County Library&lt;/a&gt; system at the time of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://ellicottcity.patch.com/articles/from-the-bottom-up-2#photo-3610957&#34;&gt;“topping out” ceremony&lt;/a&gt; for the new &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=291&#34;&gt;Charles E. Miller Branch and Historical Center&lt;/a&gt; being constructed next to it.  I’d read about the ceremony in the morning while reading news feeds on my phone (a waking-up ritual for me) and thought it might be interesting to stop by.  Fortunately I was dressed appropriately for a somewhat muddy construction site (unlike some of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.flickr.com/photos/hocolibrary/5226357345/in/set-72157625514811920/&#34;&gt;local politicians&lt;/a&gt; who were present).  I listened to the speeches, &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.flickr.com/photos/99998172@N00/sets/72157625388581711/&#34;&gt;took some photos&lt;/a&gt; with my phone, &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.flickr.com/photos/99998172@N00/5226657290/in/set-72157625388581711/&#34;&gt;signed the beam&lt;/a&gt; myself, and watched it be &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.flickr.com/photos/hocolibrary/5226971112/in/set-72157625514811920/&#34;&gt;hoisted into place&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thursday I happened to be in the vicinity of the <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=66">Miller branch</a> of the <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/">Howard County Library</a> system at the time of the <a href="http://ellicottcity.patch.com/articles/from-the-bottom-up-2#photo-3610957">“topping out” ceremony</a> for the new <a href="http://www.hclibrary.org/index.php?page=291">Charles E. Miller Branch and Historical Center</a> being constructed next to it.  I’d read about the ceremony in the morning while reading news feeds on my phone (a waking-up ritual for me) and thought it might be interesting to stop by.  Fortunately I was dressed appropriately for a somewhat muddy construction site (unlike some of the <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/hocolibrary/5226357345/in/set-72157625514811920/">local politicians</a> who were present).  I listened to the speeches, <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/99998172@N00/sets/72157625388581711/">took some photos</a> with my phone, <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/99998172@N00/5226657290/in/set-72157625388581711/">signed the beam</a> myself, and watched it be <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/hocolibrary/5226971112/in/set-72157625514811920/">hoisted into place</a>.</p>
<p>I’m really looking to the new Miller branch opening, as it’s the closest library to me.  One thing I find especially interesting is the “Historical Center” part of the building, essentially a space to host the <a href="http://www.hchsmd.org/">Howard County Historical Society</a> and its archives.  I’ve been goofing off doing a <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">bit of history</a> recently, so I can see myself stopping by from time to time to check out some of the historical documents.</p>
<p>There’s much to be said about being able to view or even touch documents and artifacts of the past, to be able to experience what <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:Walter_Benjamin">Walter Benjamin</a> called the “aura” in the context of a traditional work of art: “its presence in time and space, its unique existence at the place where it happens to be.”  However I have to confess that my main interest is in historical documents as they exist in digital form: It was wonderful that I could go to the Howard County Central Library and find an original paper version of Howard County’s 1968 charter, but it was even more wonderful when Jim Vannoy of the Howard County Office of Law sent me a <a href="/public/howard-county-md-1968-charter.pdf">digital copy of the 1968 charter</a> that I can now share with the rest of the world.</p>
<p>I like digital documents for their convenience: You can find them online (at any hour of the day or night&mdash;handy for midnight blogging!), search them, link to them, easily extract quotes from them, and so on.  But I think they’re also important as a way to preserve that which might otherwise be lost.  For example, I noted previously that the <em>Columbia Flier</em>, surely an important historical resource for Howard County, has no online archives prior to 2000.  The Howard County Central Library has copies of the <em>Flier</em> on microfilm, but I noted that the first one or two rolls were missing, the ones containing the <em>Flier</em>’s inaugural issues.</p>
<p>How many other copies of those microfilm rolls exist?  How many copies of the original printed papers?  I don’t know, but I do know that the microfilm rolls can disappear and papers can be tossed out, and then we might find ourselves having lost an important piece of the history of Columbia and Howard County.  That’s why as the new library and historical center is completed I’d also like to see some attention paid to presenting Howard County’s history in digital form.</p>
<p>Here are three example projects I’d like to see some people take on.  (And I should add, I’d be willing to be one of those people.)</p>
<p><em>Howard County on Wikipedia.</em> Although Wikipedia has its detractors, there’s no disputing that it’s the first place lots of people (including me) turn to for information, either by directly going to the site or by following search engine links.  For example, if you search for “howard county maryland” on Google then the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_County,_Maryland">Wikipedia article on Howard County</a> is the number two link.  Unfortunately the article is not that comprehensive, and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_County,_Maryland#History_and_politics">history section</a> in particular is very skimpy.</p>
<p>I think it would be a great project for someone (or someones) to fill out the Howard County Wikipedia article, as well as to add Wikipedia articles for those people who are linked to from the article but don’t actually have Wikipedia articles of their own.  (This includes five of the eight county executives.)  This could even be done in the context of a high school or college class project; for an example of this from another context (a Spanish literature class) see Jon Beasley-Murray’s <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Jbmurray/Madness">essay on having students write for Wikipedia</a>.</p>
<p><em>Digital copies of Howard County charters and related documents</em> (e.g., draft versions, charter amendments rejected by the voters, etc.). Such copies could include document image scans as well as the text itself, accurately transcribed, in machine-readable formats, and with any version-to-version differences tracked.  As I mentioned above, it’s great to now have a digital copy of the 1968 charter.  However although you can cut and paste text from the PDF, it often contains errors arising from the OCR process used to generate the text.</p>
<p>It would be nice to have a version in a text-based format (e.g., HTML) that was accurately transcribed, so it could be easily quoted in other documents without the need for hand-corrections.  Given accurately-transcribed documents in a standard text-based format, it would also be possible to easily generate accurate listings of the differences between the various versions of the charter, more clearly showing how it’s been amended and updated over the years.</p>
<p><em>Howard County election data.</em> At present the Maryland State Board of Elections does not maintain <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/index.html">online election results</a> prior to 1986.  Some results can be found online in the archives of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> and other papers, but typically newspaper stories do not report the final official results, and certainly don’t include the type of detailed data on turnout, etc., that I’ve used in my own <a href="/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/">blog posts</a>.</p>
<p>Assuming that this data still exists in some form, either in paper form or as unreleased digital files, it would be interesting and useful to publish it on the web in spreadsheet format and as text files suitable for analysis with <a href="http://www.r-project.org/">R</a> and other programs, similar to what I’ve previously done with later data.</p>
<p>Note that I’m deliberately being somewhat small-scale and conservative in my suggestions.  I believe in leveraging existing mechanisms for publishing (e.g., Wikipedia and blogs), and in concentrating on getting the data out there in a form that others can easily use and build on.  In particular the Howard County Historical Society and its new executive director, <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/community/76914/history-making/">Lauren McCormack</a>, have enough on their plate dealing with the upcoming move to the new facility, so I’m not suggesting they (or anyone else, for that matter) taken on the task of building a compete digital repository of Howard County history.  However I do think it’s a topic worth thinking about, and worth taking some small steps now to ensure that key pieces of county history can be published and easily accessed by anyone both locally and globally.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 4</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-4/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 02 Dec 2010 23:39:28 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-4/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-3/&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt; of this series Columbia’s new-found political power was tested in a referendum in 1976 on a proposal to expand the Howard County Council from five to seven members and elect all members by districts instead of at large.  The referendum failed, but a Maryland constitutional amendment left the door open to further attempts.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On with our story:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;1977.  After electing a Columbia-dominated county council and beating back an attempt to move to council districts, Columbians celebrate the tenth birthday of the new town.  Columbia’s population exceeds 45,000 (more than the entire population of Howard County in 1960), and is well-educated and affluent (averaging over $25,000 per year in family income, almost double the national median household income).&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-3/">part 3</a> of this series Columbia’s new-found political power was tested in a referendum in 1976 on a proposal to expand the Howard County Council from five to seven members and elect all members by districts instead of at large.  The referendum failed, but a Maryland constitutional amendment left the door open to further attempts.</p>
<p>On with our story:</p>
<p>1977.  After electing a Columbia-dominated county council and beating back an attempt to move to council districts, Columbians celebrate the tenth birthday of the new town.  Columbia’s population exceeds 45,000 (more than the entire population of Howard County in 1960), and is well-educated and affluent (averaging over $25,000 per year in family income, almost double the national median household income).<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Meanwhile former commissioner and council member Charles Miller recalls Jim Rouse as a “good salesman” and Columbia as “like a Chevrolet sold as a Cadillac,” and notes that if he had to do it over again he would have not approved the Columbia plan.  He worries about subsidized housing turning into slums, and calls Columbia “a real problem for the rest of the county”: “I feel we are being exploited.  . . .  People come to me all the time and complain about Columbia.  They tell me, ‘You brought it in.  Now, get it out.’” But Miller goes on to acknowledge that what’s done is done, and that Columbia is here to stay.</p>
<p>(“<a href="https://secure.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1863051852.html?FMT=AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jun+19%2C+1977&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=At+youthful+age+of+10%2C+Columbia+is+feeling+like+a+grown-up+new+town">At youthful age of 10, Columbia is feeling like a grown-up new town</a>”)</p>
<p>1978.  Former state delegate J. Hugh Nichols, a former council member and one of the main proponents of the 1976 council district proposal, announces his intent to challenge Edward Cochran for the Howard County executive position.  Observers see a tough fight ahead for Cochran, perceived as vulnerable for a recent “spending spree” for new county infrastructure and services.</p>
<p>In the September Democratic primary Nichols defeats Cochran by a 3,000-vote margin thanks to winning a 3&ndash;1 advantage outside of Columbia.  Nichols goes on to win the general election by overwhelming margins over Republican James Ansell, and becomes Howard County’s third county executive.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1777939952.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+21%2C+1978&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=A+Promising+Contest+in+Howard">A Promising Contest in Howard</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1779185972.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jul+12%2C+1978&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Tough+Race+in+Howard">Tough Race in Howard</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1779379472.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+13%2C+1978&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Nichols+upsets+Cochran+in+race+for+Howard+post">Nichols upsets Cochran in race for Howard post</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1779561532.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+8%2C+1978&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Nichols+elected+handily%3B+Pascal+wins+second+term">Nichols elected handily; Pascal wins second term</a>”)</p>
<p>1979&ndash;1980.  The Howard County Council appoints 21 people to a commission to review the county charter and make recommendations for changes; the commission consists of 18 Democrats, two Republicans, and one independent.  (According to council chair Ruth Keeton, only six Republicans applied to join the commission.)  A bipartisan group questions whether the charter review board was established in violation of the Howard County Charter, and Republicans file suit to stop it.  In the end a judge allows the commission to proceed as an interim advisory body, with a second “legal” charter review board to be created later.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Republican commission member Charles Feaga proposes a district scheme similar to that rejected by the voters in 1978; the commission rejects it, 12-7.  The commission also rejects by even larger margins proposals by Democratic commission member Steve Lee to retain at-large voting but expand the council from five to seven members and require that at least four members reside in different districts.</p>
<p>The commission formally recommends retaining at-large election of council members.  Charles Feaga leads a petition drive to force a council district proposal to appear on the November 1980 ballot, but it falls short; Feaga blames “complacency” (“We live in an affluent society, and too many people were away on vacations”), troubles petitioners experienced in getting permission to solicit signatures at shopping centers (“they lost their nerve, and they would not go back”), and his farm work taking time away from leading the effort.  Although several charter amendments are placed before the voters, a council district proposal is not among them.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1790656552.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+12%2C+1979&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+(1837-1985">Charter review panel is named</a>&amp;desc=Charter+review+panel+is+named),” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1790883812.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jun+26%2C+1979&amp;author=CHARLES+V+FLOWERS&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Howard+charter+to+get+two+reviews">Howard charter to get two reviews</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1791325562.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+14%2C+1979&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Keep+at-large+voting%2C+Howard+panel+advises">Keep at-large voting, Howard panel advises</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1791556572.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Feb+6%2C+1980&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Howard+charter+proposal+keeps+at-large+elections">Howard charter proposal keeps at-large elections</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1867547742.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Aug+19%2C+1980&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Howard+council+district+drive+falls+short">Howard council district drive falls short</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1881673462.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+28%2C+1980&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Howard+charter+amendments">Howard charter amendments</a>”)</p>
<p>In <a href="/2010/12/15/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-5/">part 5</a> we’ll see how the council district controversy continued to affect Howard County politics in the early 1980s.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="57799f94-002"><a href="http://sarahsaysblog.com" title="sarah@sarahsaysblog.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-12-03 12:12</h4>
<p>Charles Feaga leads a petition drive to force a council district proposal to appear on the November 1980 ballot, but it falls short; Feaga blames complacency (We live in an affluent society, and too many people were away on vacations)&hellip; Wow! That sounds familiar!</p>
<h4 id="57799f94-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-12-03 12:50</h4>
<p>Yes, as I noted in my original post, reading old newspaper stories about Howard County politics while following current Howard County politics causes distinct feelings of déjà vu.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>From <a href="http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/pre-1980/e7079co.txt">US census data</a> the estimated population of Howard County in 1977 was 108,200.  So with 45,000 people Columbia accounted for over 40% of Howard County’s population.  Note that all of Howard County had a population of 61,911 in 1970 and 36,152 in 1960 (also from <a href="http://www.census.gov/population/cencounts/md190090.txt">Census data</a>).</p>
<p>The stated figure of $25,000 annual income per family is most likely the median household income.  In 1977 the US median household income was $13,670, from the US Census Bureau report “<a href="http://www2.census.gov/prod2/popscan/p60-117.pdf">Money Income in 1977 of Households in the United States</a>.”  Based on the <a href="http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=25000&amp;year1=1977&amp;year2=2010">CPI inflation calculator</a> from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a $25,000 household income in 1977 would be equivalent to over $90,000 today.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The underlying legal issue was that the original Howard County charter called for a charter review board to make a “comprehensive” study of the charter after the 1980 census.  Since the charter review board in question was established in 1979 prior to the census, the contention was that establishing the board was contrary to the direction of the charter.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 3</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-3/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 02 Dec 2010 00:10:04 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-3/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;At the end of &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/30/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt; of this series Columbia Democrats had finally achieved political power within Howard County: The 1974 general election produced a 5&amp;ndash;0 Democratic majority on the County Council, including four Columbians, and a county executive sympathetic to Columbia’s concerns.  However again the rest of the county sought various ways to curb the power of Columbia, including in particular a proposal to elect council members by districts.  Let’s go to the tape:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At the end of <a href="/2010/11/30/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-2/">part 2</a> of this series Columbia Democrats had finally achieved political power within Howard County: The 1974 general election produced a 5&ndash;0 Democratic majority on the County Council, including four Columbians, and a county executive sympathetic to Columbia’s concerns.  However again the rest of the county sought various ways to curb the power of Columbia, including in particular a proposal to elect council members by districts.  Let’s go to the tape:</p>
<p>April 1975.  Howard County’s Maryland legislators, state senator James Clark, Jr., and delegates J. Hugh Nichols and Hugh Burgess, support a bill to amend the Maryland constitution to allow a local referendum on introducing County Council districts, much to the annoyance of their fellow Democrats on the Howard County Council.  Council member Lloyd Knowles complains that “the same guys we worked so hard for during the election are trying to attack us.”  Delegate Nichols, a long-time supporter of council districts, comes in for special criticism.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>A public hearing on the bill at Howard High School attracts 500 people, and emotions run high.  Audience members boo Eugene Weiss of the Columbia Democratic Club and interrupt him as he reads a seven-page prepared statement asking for more study of the proposal, and an Elkridge resident protests, “Who in Columbia knows what goes on in [the Elkridge area]?  None of you.”  In opposition, council member Thomas Yeager of Fulton points out that basing council districts on the 1970 census results would “disenfranchise 30,000 new voters,” mostly in the Columbia area.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Despite concerns by Columbians, the Maryland Senate approves a referendum bill 31-1, with support expressed by both the Democratic and Republican Central Committees in Howard County.  Clark dismisses concerns about the referendum being divisive (“As far as the divisive issue is concerned, the quicker you hit the issue head-on the better”) and defeated Republican county executive candidate Howard Crist says, “How can any good Howard County citizen stand up and say they are opposed to having countians decide by referendum?”</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1745506502.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+2%2C+1975&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Howard+council+angered+by+action+in+Annapolis">Howard council angered by action in Annapolis</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1745526812.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+8%2C+1975&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Senate+votes+to+let+Howard+county+choose+at-large+or+district+elections">Senate votes to let Howard county choose at-large or district elections</a>”)</p>
<p>1975&ndash;1976.  Proponents of council districts form study groups and start a petition drive.  Over 10,000 signatures are collected for a proposal (created by a bipartisan group sponsored by the Democratic and Republican Central Committees) to establish seven council districts, one for western Howard County and six for the remainder of the county, some centered on Columbia and Ellicott City and some sharing voters between those areas and Elkridge, Savage, or north Laurel.</p>
<p>Because of where they reside, the five current council members would have to compete with each other for two of the seven proposed seats.  County executive Edward Cochran denounces the proposal as “an attempt to gerrymander out of office most of the current council.”  A proponent of the proposal responds that the map was simply dictated by US Supreme Court criteria on equality of districts: “We did not have the present council in mind.”</p>
<p>In the November 1976 general election 57.5% of those voting oppose the referendum to establish council districts, with the “no” vote exceeding 80% in Columbia and with substantial opposition also coming from voters in Savage, Guilford, Scaggsville, and north Laurel.  These votes offset 65%&ndash;70% majorities for council districts in Elkridge, Ellicott City, West Friendship, and Lisbon.  Council member Thomas Yeager calls out council district proponents Nichols and Clark: “I hope they get challenged in 1978 because we need someone in Annapolis who can work with the county administration, instead of opposing for opposing’s sake.”</p>
<p>However even as Howard County voters defeat the council district referendum, by a 3&ndash;1 margin Maryland voters approve Question 4, amending the Maryland constitution to allow Howard County voters to repeat the referendum in future years.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1814116542.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jul+22%2C+1976&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Referendum+on+at-large+posts+in+Howard+backed">Referendum on at-large posts in Howard backed</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1772829962.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+21%2C+1976&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Cochran+calls+district+plan+attempt+at+gerrymander">Cochran calls district plan attempt at gerrymander</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1773270902.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+4%2C+1976&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Council%2C+chief+win+Howard+vote">Council, chief win Howard vote</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1773270632.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+4%2C+1976&amp;author=ANTHONY+BARBIEBI+JR&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Over+50%25+of+state+voters+ignored+21st+amendment">Over 50% of state voters ignored 21st amendment</a>”)</p>
<p>In <a href="/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-4/">part 4</a> the battle between Columbia and the rest of Howard County continues, and a charter review board considers possible changes to Howard County’s charter, including whether or not to retain at-large council elections.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="bb8ebb0c-001"><a href="http://www.jameshoward.us" title="jh@jameshoward.us">James P. Howard, II</a> - 2010-12-02 13:15</h4>
<p>Frank, you are my new hero for digging all this up.</p>
<h4 id="bb8ebb0c-002">Ken Stevens (kstevens8@verizon.net) - 2010-12-11 13:29</h4>
<p>I served on the Howard County Election review Commission in the mid-70s. Our task was to review various forms of electing County Councils and provide recommendations. So we presented all kinds of pros and cons about both at-large and districting systems and, by majority vote, decided to recommend staying with the at-large system. (You should be able to read a copy of our report at one of the county libraries.) But it was pretty clear to all what was wanted by a strong element of the pro-districters at the time. They wanted to do whatever possible to restrict the political strength of the growing Columbia population. And they wanted to do it by writing specific gerrymandered anti-Columbia districts based on the 1970 census into law. They weren&rsquo;t satisfied with simply requiring that districts be created. They wanted to have specific district lines drawn so as to ensure a non-Columbia majority on the Council. That&rsquo;s what the rejected Question C in 1976 was all about. It was the last ditch battle of the &ldquo;conservative&rdquo; anti-Columbia people in the county against those &ldquo;liberal&rdquo; Columbians. But, as the Question C vote showed, Columbia had some friends who didn&rsquo;t reside there. (I was one of them.) Although I later testified before the next Charter Revision Committee in favor of single-member Council districts, I wasn&rsquo;t about to support that Question C scheme.</p>
<h4 id="bb8ebb0c-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-12-11 16:31</h4>
<p>Thanks again for your comments! You&rsquo;re motivating me to get off my duff and finish the next installment in the series.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>You may wonder why the <a href="http://www.ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Maryland_Constitution">Maryland constitution</a> needed to be amended in order to allow Howard County voters to adopt council districts.  The background is as follows:</p>
<p>In 1914&ndash;1915 the Maryland constitution was amended by adding a new Article XI-A, “Local Legislation,” to allow counties to have “home rule” powers through adoption of a charter (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--154.html">Chapter 416, Acts of 1914</a>).  It was this scheme that allowed Howard County to become a “<a href="http://www.mdcounties.org/counties/forms_of_government.cfm">charter county</a>” in 1968.  The original Section 3 of Article XI-A provided that legislative powers for a charter county would reside in a county council, but did not specify exactly how such councils would be elected.</p>
<p>In the absence of such specification the interpretation was apparently that county council members could be elected only by the voters of the entire county, i.e., council districts were not permitted under the constitution.  In 1972 the constitution was amended to add a new Section 3A of Article XI-A that explicitly authorized voters in Baltimore County (only) to decide whether the council should be elected by councilmanic districts or at-large (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--486.html">Chapter 358, Acts of 1971</a>).  The proposal in 1975 was to further amend Section 3A to also allow Howard County voters to vote to have their council elected by district (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--550.html">Chapter 758, Acts of 1975</a>).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Unfortunately I can’t find any online sources that directly support or contradict Yeager’s assertion.  However we can get a feel for the impact of Columbia’s growth by looking at the 1970 and 1974 general elections.</p>
<p>At the time of the 1970 general election (in which <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1759828172.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+5%2C+1970&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Jones+Retains+Reins+In+Howard+County">Omar Jones was reelected county executive</a>) there were 23,683 registered voters in Howard County, of whom 68% or about 16,100 turned out.  2,760 people voted in Columbia in that election, so in 1970 Columbians made up only about 17% of the voting population.</p>
<p>In the 1974 general election (in which <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1745056602.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+6%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Cochran+beats+Crist%3B+Democrats+win+council">Edward Cochran was elected county executive</a>) over 24,000 people voted, or about 8,000 more people than in 1970.  If we assume that most of those new voters were from Columbia precincts then the number of Columbia voters in 1974 could have been as high as 10,000 or more, and might have represented 40% or more of all voters, more than doubling Columbia’s share of the voting population in just four years.</p>
<p>(See also my <a href="/2010/11/29/howard-county-population-growth-1950-2009/">post on Howard County population growth</a>, which references 10%+ annual population growth in the early 1970s.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>After the constitutional amendment was ratified to allow Howard County to have council districts if desired, further amendments were approved and ratified to allow voters to choose the use of council districts in Prince George’s County (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--626.html">Chapter 682, Acts of 1977</a>), Anne Arundel County (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--637.html">Chapter 136, Acts of 1980</a>), and Montgomery County (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--658.html">Chapter 729, Acts of 1982</a>).</p>
<p>The Maryland constitution was then amended to allow any charter county to use council districts if desired (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--680.html">Chapter 707, Acts of 1986</a>), but a separate amendment exempted Harford County from this provision and required it to elect council members at large (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--677.html">Chapter 694, Acts of 1986</a>).  Finally the constitution was amended to remove the special treatment for Harford County (<a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/megafile/msa/speccol/sc2900/sc2908/000001/000380/html/am380--723.html">Chapter 82, Acts of 1996</a>), so that at present any charter county without exception may choose to elect council members by district.</p>
<p>It’s also worth noting that Section 3A in <a href="http://www.msa.md.gov/msa/mdmanual/43const/html/11aar.html">Article XI-A</a> actually allows for a combination approach, in which some council members are elected by district and some are elected at-large.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A history of Howard County Council redistricting, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/30/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 30 Nov 2010 17:03:54 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/30/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; of this series I discussed the formation of the Howard County Council as part of an bipartisan effort to modernize Howard County government at the time Columbia was founded, with five at-large council members elected in 1969.  In part 2 we see the beginnings of a political backlash against Columbia on the part of rural Howard County voters, a backlash that however proves unable to stop the growing political power of Columbia.  (Yes, we still haven’t talked about county council districts, let alone redistricting, but trust me, this is background you need to know.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">part 1</a> of this series I discussed the formation of the Howard County Council as part of an bipartisan effort to modernize Howard County government at the time Columbia was founded, with five at-large council members elected in 1969.  In part 2 we see the beginnings of a political backlash against Columbia on the part of rural Howard County voters, a backlash that however proves unable to stop the growing political power of Columbia.  (Yes, we still haven’t talked about county council districts, let alone redistricting, but trust me, this is background you need to know.)</p>
<p>We resume our story in the gubernatorial election year of 1970:</p>
<p>November 1970.  Concern grows in rural Howard County about the impact of Columbia: In a high turnout general election county executive Omar Jones defeats a Republican challenger (James Ansell) campaigning to “keep the county rural,” but is out-polled by Republican county council candidate Charles Miller.  Miller is joined on the council by James Holway, another Republican who favors preserving the agricultural character of western Howard County.  Democratic council incumbents Edward Cochran and William Hanna are re-elected, but Alva Baker loses his seat and is replaced by “conservative” Democrat Ridgely Jones, a dairy farmer.  State’s attorney Richard Kinlein warns the election could have a “chilling effect” on county urbanization.</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1759828172.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+5%2C+1970&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Jones+Retains+Reins+In+Howard+County">Jones Retains Reins In Howard County</a>”)</p>
<p>1971&ndash;1974.  The conflict between Columbia and the rest of Howard County continues apace, as Columbia’s population continues to grow and proves to be increasingly Democratic and liberal.  Howard County’s 2&ndash;1 Democratic edge in registered voters balloons to 4&ndash;1 in Columbia, and Columbia Democrats come out 8&ndash;1 for George McGovern in the 1972 presidential primary, more than offsetting votes for George Wallace in the rest of the county.</p>
<p>During this period the Howard County Council includes no Columbia residents, and only one solid Columbia supporter, Edward Cochran.  Cochran finds himself in opposition to fellow Democrat William Hanna over Columbia planning decisions and a measure to regulate signs and billboards, and is unceremoniously deposed as council chair in a 3&ndash;2 vote as Hanna joins with the two council Republicans.  (“I thought Mr. Hanna was supposed to be in the same party,” Cochran complains.)  Eventually Cochran begins boycotting private sessions of the council as making “decisions . . . in an incipient form” behind closed doors; Charles Miller accuses him of “grandstanding” and James Holway concludes “Ed is all wet.”</p>
<p>Meanwhile, after having served since 1969 as Howard County’s first county executive Omar Jones announces his intention not to run again.  In a parting shot he criticizes the presumed Democratic and Republican candidates for his position, calling Edward Cochran a “wild-eyed bleeding heart liberal who would make Howard County an adjunct of Columbia” and someone whom “activists in Columbia think can walk on the waters of Lake Kittamaqundi,” and criticizing James Holway’s “propensity for writing letters and memos.”  (“If he ever lost his fountain pen he would be a total loss.”)</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1753256642.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+22%2C+1972&amp;author=Matthew+J+Seiden&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Columbia+grows+as+liberal+force+in+6th+district">Columbia grows as liberal force in 6th district</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1752162352.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Dec+7%2C+1971&amp;author=MITCHELL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Hanna+replaces+Cochran">Hanna replaces Cochran</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1760173562.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+8%2C+1973&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Cochran+to+boycott+Howard+sessions">Cochran to boycott Howard sessions</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1744417042.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+25%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=2+on+Howard+council+scored">2 on Howard council scored</a>”)</p>
<p>April&ndash;October 1974.  Edward Cochran formally files to run for county executive; he responds to accusations that he is too favorable to Columbia’s interests by stating that “the fact that people associate me with Columbia is political slander.”  His nemesis William Hanna abandons plans to try to retain his council seat or run for county executive, deciding to “spend more time with my family and my real estate business,” as affordable housing advocate Ruth Keeton and other Columbians file as candidates for county council.</p>
<p>Cochran is unopposed in the Democratic primary, and four out of five of the Democratic nominees are Columbia residents.  Republicans nominate Howard Crist for county executive (James Holway having decided to run for County Council again), with Charles Miller and James Holway running again for the council.  Omar Jones declines to endorse Cochran, calling him a “grandstander” who “plays the gallery all the time”; he pronounces himself “sympathetic” to Howard Crist and heartily endorses Charles Miller.  Crist is formally endorsed by outgoing council member Ridgely Jones, who lost to the Columbia candidates in the Democratic primary.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1744420062.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Apr+26%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Cochran+files+for+top+Howard+post">Cochran files for top Howard post</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1744623092.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Jun+26%2C+1974&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Hanna+steps+down+in+Howard">Hanna steps down in Howard</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1744507302.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=May+24%2C+1974&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Mrs.+Keeton%2C+Hardy+file+for+Howard+council">Mrs. Keeton, Hardy file for Howard council</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1744873962.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+12%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Columbia+Democrats+capture+party+machinery+in+Howard">Columbia Democrats capture party machinery in Howard</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1744895292.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Sep+17%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Jones+declines+to+back+Cochran+in+race+for+Howard+executive">Jones declines to back Cochran in race for Howard executive</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1745037612.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+29%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Democrat+supports+Crist+in+Howard">Democrat supports Crist in Howard</a>”)</p>
<p>November 1974.  Howard County voters turn out in large numbers in the general election, with many still in line waiting to vote after polls close.  With about half of all 35 precincts reporting (but only two of eleven Columbia precincts), Howard Crist leads Edward Cochran by 1,300 votes, However heavy voting for Cochran in the remaining nine Columbia precincts turns Crist’s early lead into a 1,600-vote lead for Cochran, and Cochran is elected Howard County Executive by a 53%&ndash;47% margin.  Democrats also win all five county council seats, with four Columbians&mdash;Richard Anderson, Ruth Keeton, Lloyd Knowles, and Virginia Thomas&mdash;joining Thomas Yeager of Fulton on the council.</p>
<p>While Cochran, a self-described “non-Columbian from Clarksville,” announces that his primary concern is to “unite the county, since it lacks unity at this point,” Eugene Weiss of the Columbia Democratic Club (“an anathema to some old guard county leaders”) notes that people in Columbia “felt neglected by county government” and “saw this election as an opportunity to get representation.”</p>
<p>(“<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1745055782.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+6%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Crist+leading+Cochran%3B+Columbia+vote+awaited">Crist leading Cochran; Columbia vote awaited</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1745056602.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+6%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Cochran+beats+Crist%3B+Democrats+win+council">Cochran beats Crist; Democrats win council</a>,” “<a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1745060772.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Nov+7%2C+1974&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Howard%27s+Democratic+government+will+listen+to+Columbia">Howard’s Democratic government will listen to Columbia</a>”)</p>
<p>In <a href="/2010/12/02/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-3/">part 3</a> of this series opponents seek to introduce council districts as a way to break the newly-acquired power of Columbia in Howard County politics.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="eedb37d6-001"><a href="http://sarahsaysblog.com" title="sarah@sarahsayblog.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-12-01 14:13</h4>
<p>Reading about the push-pull between &ldquo;Columbia&rdquo; and &ldquo;the rest of Howard County&rdquo; is intriguing. I&rsquo;m sure it only gets more interesting in how the redistricting worked.</p>
<h4 id="eedb37d6-002">Jonathan Branch (jonbranch@aol.com) - 2010-12-01 18:08</h4>
<p>Thanks for all of this history Mr. Hecker. I look forward to part 3</p>
<h4 id="eedb37d6-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-12-02 05:23</h4>
<p>Just &ldquo;Frank&rdquo; will do. Glad you like the post, part 3 is now up.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Omar Jones <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1773130882.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Oct+21%2C+1976&amp;author=MICHAEL+J+CLARK&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Omar+Jones+dies+at+63%2C+Howard%27s+first+executive">died two years later</a> at age 63.  Some county employees <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/baltsun/access/1775677202.html?FMT=CITE&amp;FMTS=CITE:AI&amp;type=historic&amp;date=Dec+21%2C+1976&amp;author=&amp;pub=The+Sun+%281837-1985%29&amp;desc=Omar+Jones+building+proposed+in+Howard">urged that a new county office building be named for him</a>, but then-county executive Edward Cochran demurred, noting that usually “the policy [is] to name the buildings after historical figures and not recent office-holders.”  The building ended up being named for former Governor of Maryland <a href="http://www.nga.org/portal/site/nga/menuitem.29fab9fb4add37305ddcbeeb501010a0/?vgnextoid=502e224971c81010VgnVCM1000001a01010aRCRD">George Howard</a>, and Jones’s advocates had to settle for having an Omar J. Jones Plaza at the Howard building.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County population growth, 1950-2009</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/29/howard-county-population-growth-1950-2009/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 29 Nov 2010 23:46:50 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/29/howard-county-population-growth-1950-2009/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In doing research for my series on the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/&#34;&gt;history of Howard County Council redistricting&lt;/a&gt; one thing that became apparent was the major impact that the founding of Columbia had on the population growth of Howard County.  That prompted me to put together a &lt;a href=&#34;https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoeAIApSILw_dHdwZEs3ZW9BUXpZRzhoTDZZRUJoc3c&amp;amp;hl=en&#34;&gt;spreadsheet of Howard County population from 1950 through 2009&lt;/a&gt; from US census data.  The data is also available as a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/public/hoco-population-1950-2009.txt&#34;&gt;text file&lt;/a&gt; suitable for use with the R statistical package.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In doing research for my series on the <a href="/2010/11/28/a-history-of-howard-county-council-redistricting-part-1/">history of Howard County Council redistricting</a> one thing that became apparent was the major impact that the founding of Columbia had on the population growth of Howard County.  That prompted me to put together a <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoeAIApSILw_dHdwZEs3ZW9BUXpZRzhoTDZZRUJoc3c&amp;hl=en">spreadsheet of Howard County population from 1950 through 2009</a> from US census data.  The data is also available as a <a href="/public/hoco-population-1950-2009.txt">text file</a> suitable for use with the R statistical package.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>The best way to get a feel for Howard County’s growth is to graph the data.  The following plot shows Howard County’s population (solid line) compared to that of neighboring Frederick County (dashed line), another Maryland suburban county that experienced significant growth in the second half of the twentieth century.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-population-1950-2009.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-population-1950-2009-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>While the population of Frederick County increased almost four-fold over the past sixty years (from 62,287 to 227,980), the population of Howard County grew more than twelve-fold (from 23,119 to 281,884), spurred by the impact of Columbia.</p>
<p>The spreadsheet also gives year-on-year increases in population for Howard County.  Note that in the early 1970s Howard County was experiencing over 10% population growth per year, a rate which if continued would have doubled Howard’s population every seven years. As it was Howard County grew over 43% from 1970 to 1974 (61,911 to 88,800).  We’ll see the political implications of this increase in population in part 2 of the history of Howard County Council redistricting.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="40712fa7-001">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-11-30 13:32</h4>
<p>While I can&rsquo;t argue with your numbers, Frank, there are a few other considerations. Frederick County had a more established population center, the City of Frederick, long before 1950. Howard County really didn&rsquo;t have that center since Ellicott City was so constrained by its topographical limitations. This means that the percentages of growth are not truly indicative of the relative growths of the counties. However, the actual growth in populations is important, and, arguably would have occurred without a &ldquo;Columbia&rdquo; due to Howard County&rsquo;s proximity to Baltimore, Washington, and the various edge cities that have grown up around the B/W Corridor and Beltways. Even today, in my unresearched opinion, there is no population center in Howard County that comes close to the City of Frederick. Maybe that will change with the new plans for Columbia&rsquo;s downtown, but the densities even then will not match that of the City of Frederick.</p>
<h4 id="40712fa7-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-11-30 14:50</h4>
<p>I agree that Howard County would have seen major growth even without Columbia, due simply to its favorable location; I think that&rsquo;s something that people tend to forget. How exactly that growth would have occurred is an interesting exercise in alternative history. Re relative population density in the city of Frederick vs. Columbia, that&rsquo;s something that would require looking into more granular Census data. It might be an interesting exercise for some future post.</p>
<h4 id="40712fa7-003"><a href="http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com" title="trevordentist@gmail.com">Trevor</a> - 2010-12-02 17:31</h4>
<p>Frank, I just wanted to let you know that as we were discussing population growth at last night&rsquo;s River Hill Master Plan meeting, I brought up the information you put in this post. I wasn&rsquo;t the only one there that has seen this. I wanted to say thank you for getting this information together and sharing it with us. As we work to plan a positive future for a community, it helps greatly to understand what happened in the past.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Population data is from the following sources:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.census.gov/population/cencounts/md190090.txt">Maryland: Population of Counties by Decennial Census: 1900 to 1990</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/pre-1980/e7079co.txt">Preliminary Estimates of the Intercensal Population of Counties 1970&ndash;1979</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1980s/e8089co.txt">Intercensal Estimates of the Resident Population of States and Counties 1980&ndash;1989</a>.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1990s/co-99-08/99C8_24.txt">Estimated population of Maryland counties 1990&ndash;1999</a> from <a href="http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1990s/CO-99-08.html">County Population Estimates and Demographic Components of Population Change: Annual Time Series, July 1, 1990 to July 1, 1999</a>.  (Note that the estimates are in reverse order from 1999 down to 1990, followed by the actual census figure for 1990; see the <a href="http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1990s/co-99-08/st8lay.txt">documentation on the file layout</a>.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/CO-EST2009-01-24.csv">Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Counties of Maryland: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009</a>. (See line 3 of the file for the format.)</li>
</ul>
<p>Figures for census years (1950, 1960, etc.) are actual census values.  Figures for all other years are estimated.  Note that the Census Bureau apparently did not produce intercensal population estimates for counties prior to the 1970s.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>This plot was produced as follows:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hocopop</span> <span class="o">&lt;-</span> <span class="nf">read.table</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s">&#34;hoco-population-1950-2009.txt&#34;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">header</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="kc">TRUE</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">plot</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hocopop</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hocopop</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Howard</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">type</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="s">&#34;l&#34;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">ylim</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">0</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="m">300000</span><span class="p">))</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">points</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hocopop</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hocopop</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Frederick</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">type</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="s">&#34;l&#34;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">lty</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="m">2</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>(The <code>type=&quot;l&quot;</code> parameter plots a line instead of points, and the <code>lty=2</code> parameter produces a dashed rather than solid line.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Exploring Howard County election data with R, part 4</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/17/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-4/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 17 Nov 2010 02:42:07 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/17/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-4/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/16/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-3/&#34;&gt;part 3&lt;/a&gt; of this series we constructed a linear model in R to estimate the proportion of voters in the 2010 Howard County general election who are unaffiliated or members of other parties.  (See also &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;.)  For our second prediction we’ll estimate the percentage of those voting who are Democrats.  We’ll again make use of the &lt;code&gt;lm()&lt;/code&gt; function, but this time we can make use of the fact that the result of &lt;code&gt;lm()&lt;/code&gt; can be stored in a variable (which in this case we arbitrarily name &lt;code&gt;lmd&lt;/code&gt;):&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/11/16/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-3/">part 3</a> of this series we constructed a linear model in R to estimate the proportion of voters in the 2010 Howard County general election who are unaffiliated or members of other parties.  (See also <a href="/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/">part 2</a>.)  For our second prediction we’ll estimate the percentage of those voting who are Democrats.  We’ll again make use of the <code>lm()</code> function, but this time we can make use of the fact that the result of <code>lm()</code> can be stored in a variable (which in this case we arbitrarily name <code>lmd</code>):</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">lmd</span> <span class="o">&lt;-</span> <span class="nf">lm</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">~</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">lmd</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Call</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="nf">lm</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">formula</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">~</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Coefficients</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">Intercept</span><span class="p">)</span>     <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">    <span class="m">766.250</span>       <span class="m">-0.358</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Before we go on, note that the slope for the linear model for Democratic voters (-0.358) is almost equal in magnitude, but opposite in sign, to the slope for the linear model for unaffiliated and other voters (0.3522).  Put more simply, the models seem to indicate that ongoing increases in the percentage of unaffiliated and other voters in Howard County gubernatorial general elections since 1990 are matched on average by corresponding decreases in the percentage of Democratic voters (presumably leaving the percentage of Republican voters relatively static).</p>
<p>As we did before, we can use the estimated slope and intercept to calculate an estimated value for the percentage of Democratic voters in the 2010 general election, assuming that the above trend continues:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="m">-0.358</span> <span class="o">*</span> <span class="m">2010</span> <span class="o">+</span> <span class="m">766.250</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">46.67</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>So 46.7% is our prediction for the percentage of voters who are Democrats, and as noted above 16.3% is our prediction for the percentage of unaffiliated and other voters.  Subtracting the sum of these two values from 100 we obtain a prediction of 37.0% for the percentage of voters who are Republican.</p>
<p>Since we stored the linear model in the variable <code>lmd</code> we can do some additional analysis.  First, we can compute what the predicted values of the percentage of Democratic voters would be based on the estimated linear relationship (using the <code>predict()</code> function), and compare that to the actual values:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">predict</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmd</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">     <span class="m">1</span>      <span class="m">2</span>      <span class="m">3</span>      <span class="m">4</span>      <span class="m">5</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">53.830</span> <span class="m">52.398</span> <span class="m">50.966</span> <span class="m">49.534</span> <span class="m">48.102</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">55.05</span> <span class="m">51.52</span> <span class="m">50.44</span> <span class="m">48.34</span> <span class="m">49.48</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>If we want to get fancier we can calculate the differences (or “residuals”) between the actual and predicted values:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">predict</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmd</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">     <span class="m">1</span>      <span class="m">2</span>      <span class="m">3</span>      <span class="m">4</span>      <span class="m">5</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"> <span class="m">1.220</span> <span class="m">-0.878</span> <span class="m">-0.526</span> <span class="m">-1.194</span>  <span class="m">1.378</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Note that since both <code>hgg$PctVotersD</code> and <code>predict(lmd)</code> contain five values, taking the difference between them produces five values as well.</p>
<p>So in general the actual and predicted values for the percentage of voters who are Democrats differ by about a percentage of the total vote.  That likely means that our predicted value of 46.7% for 2010 could be off by at least that amount as well.</p>
<p>If we’d like more statistical goodness we can use the <code>summary()</code> function:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">summary</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmd</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Call</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="nf">lm</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">formula</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">~</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Residuals</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">     <span class="m">1</span>      <span class="m">2</span>      <span class="m">3</span>      <span class="m">4</span>      <span class="m">5</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"> <span class="m">1.220</span> <span class="m">-0.878</span> <span class="m">-0.526</span> <span class="m">-1.194</span>  <span class="m">1.378</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Coefficients</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">            <span class="n">Estimate</span> <span class="n">Std.</span>  <span class="n">Error</span> <span class="n">t</span> <span class="n">value</span> <span class="nf">Pr</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="o">&gt;|</span><span class="n">t</span><span class="o">|</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">Intercept</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="m">766.2500</span>   <span class="m">220.7716</span>   <span class="m">3.471</span>   <span class="m">0.0403</span> <span class="o">*</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span>     <span class="m">-0.3580</span>     <span class="m">0.1105</span>  <span class="m">-3.240</span>   <span class="m">0.0479</span> <span class="o">*</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">---</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Signif.</span>  <span class="n">codes</span><span class="o">:</span>  <span class="m">0</span> ‘<span class="o">***</span>’ <span class="m">0.001</span> ‘<span class="o">**</span>’ <span class="m">0.01</span> ‘<span class="o">*</span>’ <span class="m">0.05</span> ‘<span class="n">.’</span> <span class="m">0.1</span> ‘ ’ <span class="m">1</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Residual</span> <span class="n">standard</span> <span class="n">error</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">1.398</span> <span class="n">on</span> <span class="m">3</span> <span class="n">degrees</span> <span class="n">of</span> <span class="n">freedom</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Multiple</span> <span class="n">R</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">squared</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">0.7777</span><span class="p">,</span>    <span class="n">Adjusted</span> <span class="n">R</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">squared</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">0.7036</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="bp">F</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">statistic</span><span class="o">:</span>  <span class="m">10.5</span> <span class="n">on</span> <span class="m">1</span> <span class="n">and</span> <span class="m">3</span> <span class="n">DF</span><span class="p">,</span>  <span class="n">p</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">value</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">0.04785</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Some of these numbers we’ve seen before, including the slope, intercept, and residuals.  Of the additional values, the most interesting for our purpose is the (multiple) R-squared value, which can be used as a measure of how well the linear model explains the observed data.  More formally, the R-squared value (also known as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination">coefficient of determination</a>) measures the proportion of the variability in the observed values that’s explained by the linear model.  In this case the R-squared value of 0.7777 means that about three quarters of the variability in the observed data is explained by the linear model.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>This is a good but not great fit to the observed data.  For another example let’s return to the linear model for the percentage of unaffiliated and other voters and look at the predicted values, residuals, and R-squared value:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">lmo</span> <span class="o">&lt;-</span> <span class="nf">lm</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span> <span class="o">~</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">predict</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmo</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">     <span class="m">1</span>      <span class="m">2</span>      <span class="m">3</span>      <span class="m">4</span>      <span class="m">5</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"> <span class="m">9.374</span> <span class="m">10.783</span> <span class="m">12.192</span> <span class="m">13.601</span> <span class="m">15.010</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">summary</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmo</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Call</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="nf">lm</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">formula</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span> <span class="o">~</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Residuals</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">     <span class="m">1</span>      <span class="m">2</span>      <span class="m">3</span>      <span class="m">4</span>      <span class="m">5</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"> <span class="m">0.016</span>  <span class="m">0.167</span> <span class="m">-0.122</span> <span class="m">-0.321</span>  <span class="m">0.260</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Coefficients</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">             <span class="n">Estimate</span> <span class="n">Std.</span>  <span class="n">Error</span> <span class="n">t</span> <span class="n">value</span> <span class="nf">Pr</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="o">&gt;|</span><span class="n">t</span><span class="o">|</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">Intercept</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="m">-691.6035</span>    <span class="m">42.1549</span>  <span class="m">-16.41</span> <span class="m">0.000493</span> <span class="o">***</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span>       <span class="m">0.3523</span>     <span class="m">0.0211</span>   <span class="m">16.70</span> <span class="m">0.000468</span> <span class="o">***</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">---</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Signif.</span>  <span class="n">codes</span><span class="o">:</span>  <span class="m">0</span> ‘<span class="o">***</span>’ <span class="m">0.001</span> ‘<span class="o">**</span>’ <span class="m">0.01</span> ‘<span class="o">*</span>’ <span class="m">0.05</span> ‘<span class="n">.’</span> <span class="m">0.1</span> ‘ ’ <span class="m">1</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Residual</span> <span class="n">standard</span> <span class="n">error</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">0.2669</span> <span class="n">on</span> <span class="m">3</span> <span class="n">degrees</span> <span class="n">of</span> <span class="n">freedom</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Multiple</span> <span class="n">R</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">squared</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">0.9894</span><span class="p">,</span>	<span class="n">Adjusted</span> <span class="n">R</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">squared</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">0.9858</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="bp">F</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">statistic</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">278.7</span> <span class="n">on</span> <span class="m">1</span> <span class="n">and</span> <span class="m">3</span> <span class="n">DF</span><span class="p">,</span>  <span class="n">p</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">value</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="m">0.0004678</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Note that here the residuals are quite small (a fraction of a percent of the total vote) and the R-squared value is quite close to 1.0, indicating that the linear model explains almost all the variability in the observed data.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Finally, let’s redo the graph from the last post to include trend lines for both the Democratic and independent proportions of the total voting population in gubernatorial elections since 1990:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">plot</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersR</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">xlim</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">1990</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="m">2010</span><span class="p">),</span> <span class="n">ylim</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">0</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="m">60</span><span class="p">))</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">points</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">points</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">abline</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="nf">coef</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmo</span><span class="p">))</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">abline</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="nf">coef</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmd</span><span class="p">))</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Note that since we stored the linear models in the variables <code>lmo</code> and <code>lmd</code> we don’t have to manually type in the slope and intercept arguments (the “coefficients” of the line’s equation) to the <code>abline()</code> function.  Instead we can simply use the <code>coef()</code> function to extract those coefficients and plug them in.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-vs-years-trendline-2.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-vs-years-trendline-2-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>Statistics by themselves can take us only so far.  We still have the question of why the proportion of unaffiliated and other voters seems to be increasing in such a strict linear manner from election to election.  We also don’t know why the increase in the proportion of unaffiliated and other voters seems to be primarily affecting the proportion of Democratic voters and not (on average) the proportion of Republican voters.</p>
<p>I’ve already attempted an answer to the first question in a <a href="/2010/10/20/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election-contd/">previous post</a>.  Regarding the second question, the graph above suggests that the proportion of Democratic voters may actually be about to grow again, and the proportion of Republican voters to decrease.  If that turns out to be the case in the 2010 Howard County general election then our linear model for the Democratic proportion of voters may be wrong.</p>
<p>In the meantime in the next post I’ll look at another proposed approach to estimating the relative proportions of total voters from the two major parties and independents, this time using the data from past primary elections.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Note that we can easily compute the R-squared value as follows:</p>
<p>We first compute the variability in the observed data by taking the differences between the observed values and their mean:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">mean</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">50.966</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">mean</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span>  <span class="m">4.084</span>  <span class="m">0.554</span> <span class="m">-0.526</span> <span class="m">-2.626</span> <span class="m">-1.48</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>then squaring the differences and summing the squares:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">mean</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="n">^2</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">16.679056</span>  <span class="m">0.306916</span>  <span class="m">0.276676</span>  <span class="m">6.895876</span>  <span class="m">2.208196</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">sum</span><span class="p">((</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">mean</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="n">^2</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">26.36672</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>We then take the residuals (the differences between the actual values and the values predicted by the linear model), square them, and take the sum:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">predict</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmd</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">    <span class="m">1</span>      <span class="m">2</span>      <span class="m">3</span>      <span class="m">4</span>      <span class="m">5</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">1.220</span> <span class="m">-0.878</span> <span class="m">-0.526</span> <span class="m">-1.194</span>  <span class="m">1.378</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">predict</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmd</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="n">^2</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">       <span class="m">1</span>        <span class="m">2</span>        <span class="m">3</span>        <span class="m">4</span>        <span class="m">5</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">1.488400</span> <span class="m">0.770884</span> <span class="m">0.276676</span> <span class="m">1.425636</span> <span class="m">1.898884</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">sum</span><span class="p">((</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">predict</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmd</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="n">^2</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">5.86048</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>The ratio of these two numbers gives the proportion of variability in the observed data <em>not</em> explained by the linear model, which we can then subtract from 1 to give the proportion of variability explained by the model:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="m">5.86048</span> <span class="o">/</span> <span class="m">26.36672</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">0.2222681</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="m">1</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="m">0.2222681</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">0.7777319</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div>&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Again we can easily calculate the R-squared value for ourselves:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">sum</span><span class="p">((</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">predict</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">lmo</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="n">^2</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">0.21367</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">sum</span><span class="p">((</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="nf">mean</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span><span class="p">))</span><span class="n">^2</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">20.06648</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="m">1</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="m">0.21367</span> <span class="o">/</span> <span class="m">20.06648</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">0.9893519</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div>&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Exploring Howard County election data with R, part 3</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/16/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-3/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 16 Nov 2010 05:37:58 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/16/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-3/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; of this series I discussed downloading and installing the &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_%28programming_language%29&#34;&gt;R statistical package&lt;/a&gt; and loading it with Howard County election data, and then in &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt; we began to explore how to use that data to estimate the percentages of voters in the 2010 general election who are Democrats, Republicans, or unaffiliated or members of other parties.  In our initial explorations we discovered that the percentage of those voting who were Republicans seemed to be relatively static over the years.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/">part 1</a> of this series I discussed downloading and installing the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_%28programming_language%29">R statistical package</a> and loading it with Howard County election data, and then in <a href="/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/">part 2</a> we began to explore how to use that data to estimate the percentages of voters in the 2010 general election who are Democrats, Republicans, or unaffiliated or members of other parties.  In our initial explorations we discovered that the percentage of those voting who were Republicans seemed to be relatively static over the years.</p>
<p>Now it’s time to continue our exploration, this time looking at the historical data for the percentage of voters who were Democrats or unaffiliated or other.  Let’s repeat what we did for the Republican data, plotting the percentage of Democratic voters <code>hgg$PctVotersD</code> over the years:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">plot</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>The resulting graph shows a clear downward trend over the years:</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-d-vs-years1.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-d-vs-years1-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>This might seem surprising in combination with the graph in the previous post showing that the Republican share of total voters has remained relatively stable over the years.  Given that Democratic registration in Howard County has supposedly been outpacing Republican registration by a considerable margin, shouldn’t the percentage of Democratic voters be trending upward over the years, and the percentage of Republican voters trending downward?</p>
<p>Part of the answer may lie in the difference between registering voters and having those voters actually turn out for elections. However another part of the answer lies in the role of unaffiliated and other voters.  Let’s plot the percentage of unaffiliated and other voters <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code> for comparison:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">plot</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>The resulting graph shows a clear and (at first glance) almost perfectly linear upward trend in the percentage of people voting who are unaffiliated or belong to other parties.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-other-vs-years1.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-other-vs-years1-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>So possibly what’s happening is that the rising percentage of unaffiliated and other voters is cutting into the Democratic fraction of voters more than into the Republican fraction.</p>
<p>But that’s a question for another day.  For now let’s continue with trying to estimate the various percentages of voters for each party and for independents.  To help us do that, let’s plot all the values in one graph.  We’ll start with a plot like the one we did for Republican voters in the previous post, and then add to it the values for Democratic voters and for unaffiliated and other voters:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">plot</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersR</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">xlim</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">1990</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="m">2010</span><span class="p">),</span> <span class="n">ylim</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">0</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="m">60</span><span class="p">))</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">points</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersD</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">points</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Note that as in the original plot we set the vertical or “y” axis to go from 0 to 60%.  In this new plot we also use the <code>xlim</code> parameter to set the horizontal (“x”) axis to go from 1990 to 2010, in order to help us envision how the historical trends might project forward to this year.  To the graph produced by <code>plot()</code> we then add points for <code>hgg$PctVotersD</code> and <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code>, both plotted against <code>hgg$Year</code>.  (Note that the <code>points()</code> function does not start a brand-new graph, but simply overlays new data points on the graph already being displayed.)</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-vs-years.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-vs-years-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>From the above graph we can do a quick eyeball estimate of where the percentages of voters might end up in 2010, assuming historical trends continue.  The percentage of unaffiliated voters looks like it might be around 17-18%, and the percentage of Democrats around 47-48%; that would leave the percentage of Republican voters around 35% or so.</p>
<p>However with R we can produce a more exact prediction by creating a “linear model” of the data.  In a linear relationship change in one variable is associated with a proportional change in another variable. For example, based on the data for <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code>:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span>  <span class="m">9.39</span> <span class="m">10.95</span> <span class="m">12.07</span> <span class="m">13.28</span> <span class="m">15.27</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>an increase of four years (i.e., between elections) appears to be associated with an increase of over 1% in the percentage of unaffiliated and other voters, or about a quarter to a third of a percent per year.  To get a more exact estimate we use the <code>lm()</code> function:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">lm</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span> <span class="o">~</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Call</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="nf">lm</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">formula</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span> <span class="o">~</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Coefficients</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">Intercept</span><span class="p">)</span>     <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">  <span class="m">-691.6035</span>       <span class="m">0.3522</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Here <code>lm()</code> tries to find a linear relationship between <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code> and <code>hgg$Year</code>, such that given a value of <code>hgg$Year</code> we can predict a corresponding value for <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code>.  This produces two numbers of interest.  The first number, 0.3522, is the estimated increase per year in the percentage of unaffiliated and other voters.  (This is known as the “slope” of the line.)</p>
<p>The second number, -691.6035 (known as the “intercept”), is the value that <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code> would have if we projected back to <code>hgg$Year</code> having a value of zero.  Of course this doesn’t make sense in real life, but simply serves to help calculate estimated values of <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code>.  For example, if <code>hgg$Year</code> has the value 1990 then we calculate the estimated value of <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code> in that year by multiplying the slope value (0.3522) by 1990 and then adding the intercept value (-691.6035):</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="m">0.3522</span> <span class="o">*</span> <span class="m">1990</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="m">691.6035</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">9.2745</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Compare</span> <span class="n">this</span> <span class="n">to</span> <span class="n">the</span> <span class="n">actual</span> <span class="n">percentage</span> <span class="n">of</span> <span class="n">unaffliated</span> <span class="n">and</span> <span class="n">other</span> <span class="n">voters</span> <span class="kr">in</span> <span class="m">1990</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">which</span> <span class="n">is</span> <span class="n">given</span> <span class="n">by</span> <span class="n">the</span> <span class="n">first</span> <span class="n">element</span> <span class="n">of</span> <span class="n">`hgg$PctVotersOther`</span><span class="o">:</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">```r</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther[1]</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">9.39</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>We could continue through the years, calculating estimates of <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code> for 1994, 1998, and so on; since the percentage of unaffiliated and other voters doesn’t follow an exact linear trend, there will be minor differences between the estimated values and the actual values.  The goal of linear modeling (as implemented by <code>lm()</code>) is to find a line that minimizes the total amount of those differences.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>We can show how closely that line fits the actual data by taking our plot from above and using the <code>abline()</code> function to add to it a line having the slope and intercept calculated above.[^2]</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">abline</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">-691.6035</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="m">0.3522</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Note that we don’t have to repeat the previous <code>plot()</code> and <code>point()</code> functions, as long as we haven’t issued a new <code>plot()</code> function in the meantime.</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-vs-years-trendline-1.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-vs-years-trendline-1-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>But enough of the preliminaries: Let’s make an estimate!  Given the values of slope and intercept given above, we can compute the predicted percentage of unaffiliated and other voters in the 2010 general election as follows:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="m">0.3522</span> <span class="o">*</span> <span class="m">2010</span> <span class="o">-</span> <span class="m">691.6035</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">16.3185</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>So our first prediction is that unaffiliated and other voters will be 16.3% of those voting in Howard County in the 2010 general election. I’ll continue this analysis in the <a href="/2010/11/17/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-4/">next post</a>, in which we’ll find an estimate for the proportion of Democratic voters.</p>
<p>[^2] The <code>abline()</code> function gets its name from the traditional mathematical equation for a line, $y = ax + b$, in which $x$ is a variable on which $y$ depends, $a$ is a constant value giving the slope, and $b$ is a second constant value giving the intercept.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="c8c1d956-002"><a href="http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com" title="trevordentist@gmail.com">Trevor</a> - 2010-11-16 14:49</h4>
<p>This is great stuff. You ever thought about a second career in polling?</p>
<h4 id="c8c1d956-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-11-16 15:02</h4>
<p>I don&rsquo;t think I&rsquo;m cut out to be a pollster, to be honest. This is just a hobby, and I plan to keep it that way.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>To be more precise, <code>lm()</code> finds a line that minimizes the sum of the squares of the differences.  Hence this procedure is known as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Least_squares">least squares</a> analysis.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Exploring Howard County election data with R, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 13 Nov 2010 14:39:47 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I promised to explore how we can use the statistics package R to produce estimates for the relative proportions of Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated and other voters within the total population voting in the 2010 general election.  However I spent all of last post on the preliminaries: how to download and install R, and how to load into R turnout data from past Howard County gubernatorial primary and general elections.  In this post we can start doing some real work.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a <a href="/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/">previous post</a> I promised to explore how we can use the statistics package R to produce estimates for the relative proportions of Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated and other voters within the total population voting in the 2010 general election.  However I spent all of last post on the preliminaries: how to download and install R, and how to load into R turnout data from past Howard County gubernatorial primary and general elections.  In this post we can start doing some real work.</p>
<p>First, let’s restart R and make sure we have the data we’ll be using. If you told R to save your workspace at the end of your last session, then R should automatically restore that workspace, including the turnout data, when you start it now:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">R</span> <span class="n">version</span> <span class="m">2.12.0</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="m">2010-10-15</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="nf">Copyright </span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">C</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="m">2010</span> <span class="n">The</span> <span class="n">R</span> <span class="n">Foundation</span> <span class="kr">for</span> <span class="n">Statistical</span> <span class="n">Computing</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">ISBN</span> <span class="m">3-900051-07-0</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Platform</span><span class="o">:</span> <span class="n">i386</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">apple</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">darwin9.8.0</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="nf">i386 </span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">32</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">bit</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="kc">...</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[Workspace</span> <span class="n">restored</span> <span class="n">from</span> <span class="o">/</span><span class="n">Users</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">hecker</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">.RData]</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[History</span> <span class="n">restored</span> <span class="n">from</span> <span class="o">/</span><span class="n">Users</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">hecker</span><span class="o">/</span><span class="n">.Rhistory]</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>If you didn’t save your workspace, or if R doesn’t restore it for some reason, then you can reload the data following the instructions in the last post.  Either way, when you’re done you should have two variables (“data frames”) that contain the data of interest, <code>hgp</code> for the primary election turnout data and <code>hgg</code> for the general election turnout data.  You can use the <code>ls()</code> command to verify that the variables are present, and enter the variables’ names to print their values (here I show the data in the data frame <code>hgp</code>):</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">ls</span><span class="p">()</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="s">&#34;hgg&#34;</span> <span class="s">&#34;hgp&#34;</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgp</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">  <span class="n">Year</span> <span class="n">Registered</span> <span class="n">Turnout</span> <span class="n">PctTurnout</span>  <span class="n">RegD</span> <span class="n">PctRegD</span> <span class="n">TurnoutD</span> <span class="n">PctTurnoutD</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">1</span> <span class="m">1990</span>      <span class="m">92801</span>   <span class="m">22989</span>      <span class="m">24.77</span> <span class="m">47586</span>   <span class="m">51.28</span>    <span class="m">15001</span>       <span class="m">31.52</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">2</span> <span class="m">1994</span>      <span class="m">89492</span>   <span class="m">37408</span>      <span class="m">41.80</span> <span class="m">51949</span>   <span class="m">58.05</span>    <span class="m">23255</span>       <span class="m">44.77</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">3</span> <span class="m">1998</span>     <span class="m">128935</span>   <span class="m">34066</span>      <span class="m">26.42</span> <span class="m">61358</span>   <span class="m">47.59</span>    <span class="m">18219</span>       <span class="m">29.69</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">4</span> <span class="m">2002</span>     <span class="m">156505</span>   <span class="m">39989</span>      <span class="m">25.55</span> <span class="m">73240</span>   <span class="m">46.80</span>    <span class="m">23837</span>       <span class="m">32.55</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">5</span> <span class="m">2006</span>     <span class="m">161922</span>   <span class="m">41324</span>      <span class="m">25.52</span> <span class="m">75592</span>   <span class="m">46.68</span>    <span class="m">27984</span>       <span class="m">37.02</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">   <span class="n">RegR</span> <span class="n">PctRegR</span> <span class="n">TurnoutR</span> <span class="n">PctTurnoutR</span> <span class="n">RegOther</span> <span class="n">PctRegOther</span> <span class="n">TurnoutOther</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">1</span> <span class="m">33923</span>   <span class="m">36.55</span>     <span class="m">7675</span>       <span class="m">22.62</span>    <span class="m">11292</span>       <span class="m">12.17</span>          <span class="m">313</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">2</span> <span class="m">37543</span>   <span class="m">41.95</span>    <span class="m">14153</span>       <span class="m">37.70</span>    <span class="m">14598</span>       <span class="m">16.31</span>          <span class="m">656</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">3</span> <span class="m">47019</span>   <span class="m">36.47</span>    <span class="m">15218</span>       <span class="m">32.37</span>    <span class="m">20558</span>       <span class="m">15.94</span>          <span class="m">629</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">4</span> <span class="m">56409</span>   <span class="m">36.04</span>    <span class="m">14719</span>       <span class="m">26.09</span>    <span class="m">26856</span>       <span class="m">17.16</span>         <span class="m">1433</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">5</span> <span class="m">55045</span>   <span class="m">33.99</span>    <span class="m">12036</span>       <span class="m">21.87</span>    <span class="m">31285</span>       <span class="m">19.32</span>         <span class="m">1304</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">  <span class="n">PctTurnoutOther</span> <span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="n">PctVotersR</span> <span class="n">PctVotersOther</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">1</span>            <span class="m">2.77</span>      <span class="m">65.25</span>      <span class="m">33.39</span>           <span class="m">1.36</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">2</span>            <span class="m">4.49</span>      <span class="m">62.17</span>      <span class="m">37.83</span>           <span class="m">1.75</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">3</span>            <span class="m">3.06</span>      <span class="m">53.48</span>      <span class="m">44.67</span>           <span class="m">1.85</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">4</span>            <span class="m">5.34</span>      <span class="m">59.61</span>      <span class="m">36.81</span>           <span class="m">3.58</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">5</span>            <span class="m">4.17</span>      <span class="m">67.72</span>      <span class="m">29.13</span>           <span class="m">3.16</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>OK, can we start estimating now?  Not so fast.  . . .  Let’s first devote a bit of thought to what we’re trying to estimate, and what general approaches we might use to do it.  Recall that our previously-stated goal was to estimate the relative proportions of Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated and other voters voting in the 2010 general election.  Why these particular values?  Because they are typically used in political polling when constructing a sample of likely voters.  Obviously polling a sample consisting of 90% Democrats would produce a biased result, as would polling a sample consisting of 75% Republicans or 50% independents.</p>
<p>So we want to estimate three separate values for the 2010 general election: the proportion of those voting who are registered Democrats, the proportion of those voting who are registered Republicans, and the proportion of those voting who are unaffiliated or belong to other (smaller) parties.  Note that by definition these three values must add up to 100%; therefore we need only estimate two of them, and then we can compute the third estimate by taking the sum of the first two estimates and subtracting it from 100.  (For example, if we estimate 50% Democrats and 40% Republicans then the estimated number of independents is 100% minus 90% or 10%.)</p>
<p>How might we go about estimating these values?  Assuming we’re not just going to use our gut (“feels like a tsunami this year”) we should try to use the data that’s available to us.  But what data?  In our case we have in essence four separate data sets: turnout data for primary elections in presidential years, data for gubernatorial primaries, and turnout data for general elections in both presidential election years and gubernatorial election years.</p>
<p>I’ve already made one decision about which data to use, namely to focus only on data from gubernatorial elections, on the theory that turnout patterns in presidential election years are different enough that they aren’t necessarily a good guide for estimating turnout in gubernatorial election years.  (For example, turnout tends to be significantly higher across the board in presidential election years.)</p>
<p>We now face a second choice: Should we use only the general election data, only the primary election data, or both?  For example, it might be the case that turnout in a primary election predicts fairly well turnout in a general election; we could try to dermine some sort of relationship between primary and general election turnout using data from previous years, and then use the primary turnout data from 2010 to estimate the turnout for the 2010 general election.  An alternative theory is that there’s not a strong relationship between turnout in primaries and turnout in general elections, in which case we should focus solely on general election data.  Finally, it might be that general election turnout in 2010 is a function of both 2010 primary election turnout and general election turnout in prior years.</p>
<p>I’ll start the same way I originally started, and look at general election data only.  (We can then come back and look at the primary data later.)  But we’ve still got the problem of deciding exactly which variables to look at: Absolute numbers of registered voters in past general elections?  Relative percentages of registered voters among the parties and independents (e.g., what percentage of registered voters are Democrats)?  Relative turnout between the parties (e.g., what percentage of registered Democrats actually voted vs. what percentage of Republicans voted)?  And so on.  As seen in printing out <code>hgg</code> and <code>hgp</code>, we have 19 different columns of data we can play with, representing results from five different elections.</p>
<p>The simplest approach is to look first at the historical data for the quantities we’re trying to estimate, and see if there are any discernible trends.  In our case that means looking at the three variables <code>hgg$PctVotersD</code> (percentage of those voting in general elections who are registered Democrats), <code>hgg$PctVotersR</code> (percentage of those voting in general elections who are registered Republican), and <code>hgg$PctVotersOther</code> (percentage of those voting in general elections who are unaffiliated or are registered members of other parties).  Rather than applying any heavy statistical techniques, let’s just use R to plot the values of these variables over time.</p>
<p>I’ll start with the percentage of voters who are Republicans, as I did when I did my original analysis, and use the <code>plot()</code> command to plot the values of <code>hgg$PctVotersR</code> against the values of <code>hgg$Year</code>:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">plot</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersR</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>R can generate very complicated and professional-looking plots, but in this case we get the following barebones but nonetheless useful graph:</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-r-vs-years1.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-r-vs-years1-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>It’s hard to discern a trend here.  It looks as if the percentage of Republican voters was rising from 1998 to 2002, only to drop off in 2006 to its original level.  The vertical scale of the graph exaggerates the relative differences from year to year, so let’s redo the plot, this time using a vertical scale from 0 to 60 percent.</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">plot</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersR</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">ylim</span> <span class="o">=</span> <span class="nf">c</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="m">0</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="m">60</span><span class="p">))</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Here the <code>ylim</code> parameter sets the range of values on the vertical (“y”) axis to 0 on the low end and 60 on the high end.  The value <code>c(0,60)</code> is a list of two numbers (a “vector” in R terminology) concatenated together (where the “c” comes from).</p>
<p><a href="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-r-vs-years-0-60.png"><img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-gub-gen-pct-voters-r-vs-years-0-60-embed.png"></a></p>
<p>Notice that in this plot the percentage of Republican voters appears relatively static, fluctuating somewhere between 35% and 40% over the years.  We can get a bit more specific about this by computing the mean and standard deviation of these values:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">mean</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersR</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">36.844</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">sd</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersR</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">1.360599</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>The mean of 36.84% is what’s more commonly known as the average: the sum of all the percentages of Republican voters in the five gubernatorial elections, divided by the number of elections.  The exact computation of the standard deviation of 1.36% is not important for our purposes; we can use it simply as a measure of how tightly or loosely the various values are clustered about the mean.  (If you’re interested in how standard deviation is computed, see the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation#Basic_examples">relevant section of the associated Wikipedia article</a>, and note that what R computes is what is technically known as the sample standard deviation.)</p>
<p>If the percentage of Republican voters from election to election were truly fluctuating randomly in a certain way (in statistical terms, if it were a random variable with a known distribution, e.g., a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution">normal distribution</a>) then we could use the mean and standard deviation together to make relatively strong predictions about the likely value of the Republican percentage of the vote in 2010.  For example, we could define a 95% confidence interval like those we discussed in relation to <a href="/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/">polling margins of error</a>, i.e., a range of values around the mean value, with only a 5% likelihood that the Republican percentage of the vote would fall outside that range.</p>
<p>In this case we don’t know whether we’d be justified in making such predictions or not.  However it was this computation that originally made me somewhat skeptical of the Republican percentage of the vote going much above 40% (or much below 35%, for that matter).  Whether that skepticism will be borne out remains to be seen.  In the meantime I’ll end this post and take a break from R for a while; in the <a href="/2010/11/16/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-3/">next post</a> I’ll plot the historical percentages of the vote from Democrats and unaffiliated and other voters, and see if they show any clearer trends.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Relative performance of candidates in District 9A and Council District 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/10/relative-performance-of-candidates-in-district-9a-and-council-district-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 10 Nov 2010 22:59:20 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/10/relative-performance-of-candidates-in-district-9a-and-council-district-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;HoCo Rising &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocorising.com/2010/11/its-districting-stupid.html&#34;&gt;recently commented&lt;/a&gt; on supposed high Republican turnout in the Maryland House of Delegates race in District 9A, and wondered whether Bob Flanagan would have beaten Courtney Watson if Republicans had seen similar turnout in Howard County Council District 1.  Well, as commenter Ralph Norton was quick to point out, most of Council District 1 is actually in District 9A: Out of the 22 precincts in Council District 1, only 6 are not in 9A, and overall more than three quarters of the registered voters in Council District 1 vote in District 9A (28,335 registered voters out of 37,008 total registered voters in Council District 1 at the time of the general election).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>HoCo Rising <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2010/11/its-districting-stupid.html">recently commented</a> on supposed high Republican turnout in the Maryland House of Delegates race in District 9A, and wondered whether Bob Flanagan would have beaten Courtney Watson if Republicans had seen similar turnout in Howard County Council District 1.  Well, as commenter Ralph Norton was quick to point out, most of Council District 1 is actually in District 9A: Out of the 22 precincts in Council District 1, only 6 are not in 9A, and overall more than three quarters of the registered voters in Council District 1 vote in District 9A (28,335 registered voters out of 37,008 total registered voters in Council District 1 at the time of the general election).</p>
<p>(Going the other way, District 9A consists of 37 precincts, of which 16 are also in Council District 1.  As of the general election District 9A contained a total of 62,577 registered voters, of which 28,335 or just under half were also in Council District 1.)</p>
<p>I thought it would be interesting to compare the relative electoral performance of the various District 9A and Council District 1 candidates in the 16 precincts where all of them were on the ballot.  So, using the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/BOE/BOEDOCS/GEMS_SOVC_REPORT.pdf">unofficial 2010 general election results by precinct</a> I created a <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsbOfsoPgoYPdHpJOVNURTdGbGdxSEl3amJiN095S3c&amp;hl=en">Google spreadsheet</a> showing the votes for Gail Bates, Warren Miller, Maryann Maher, Jonathan Weinstein, Courtney Watson, and Bob Flanagan in those precincts they had in common, arranged in order of the total votes each candidate received in that set of precincts.</p>
<p>Note that the spreadsheet does not include the results from absentee ballots (which haven’t been reported yet) or the results from early voting (which weren’t broken out by precinct).  This means that the spreadsheet figures should be taken with a grain of salt, but they still might be of interest, if only for the entertainment value.  Note also that the column titled “Turnout” is taken from the “Times Counted” column in the unofficial results; it’s basically the number of ballots that were counted, with the proviso that some voters didn’t vote for all races on the ballot.</p>
<p>You can read the spreadsheet for yourself.  However here are some highlights:</p>
<ul>
<li>Courtney Watson was the top vote getter overall in these precincts; however Watson got only 44 votes more than Gail Bates, and ran behind Bates in all but five precincts.</li>
<li>Bob Flanagan didn’t attract as many votes as Gail Bates, but he was less than two hundred votes shy of her total, and considerably out-polled Warren Miller (by almost five hundred votes).</li>
<li>In turn Warren Miller barely beat Maryann Maher in these precincts, running less than twenty votes ahead of her.</li>
</ul>
<p>How do these results compare with the results for Council District 1 and District 9A overall?</p>
<ul>
<li>In these 16 precincts Watson’s lead over Flanagan was 50.73% to 49.18%.  This is narrower than her lead of 51.39% to 48.53% in the November 2 vote total for all Council District 1 precincts, probably indicating that the other six precincts are relatively more Democratic.  (This isn’t quite definitive, since these figures don’t include early voting and absentee ballots.  For the record, Watson did considerably better than Flanagan in early voting, 56.70% to 43.18%.)</li>
<li>In these 16 precincts Bates and Miller polled at 27.49% and 24.83% respectively compared to 24.75% and 22.85% for Maher and Weinstein respectively.  This compares to leads of 31.10% and 28.63% of Bates and Miller over Maher and Weinstein at 20.92% and 19.28% for all precincts in 9A voting on November 2, probably indicating that the rest of District 9A is more Republican than those precincts shared with Council District 1.  (Again, this ignores absentee ballots and early voting.  As in Council District 1, early voting in District 9A favored Democrats.)</li>
</ul>
<p>My final conclusions are that Bob Flanagan actually did pretty well in getting <del>Republicans</del> people to vote for him, and that Courtney Watson should be glad her entire district isn’t part of District 9A.</p>
<p>UPDATE: Since I don’t have data on Republican turnout, I amended my final paragraph to note that Bob Flanagan did well in getting people in general to vote for him, not just Republicans specifically.  (In other words, crossing out “Republicans” and putting in “people” was not meant as a slur on Republicans; if I make a substantive change to a post after publishing it I explicitly mark my edits.)</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="c50f5a8d-003">HoCoRising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-11-11 11:59</h4>
<p>Maybe you should start a category of posts called &ldquo;HoCo Rising Ombudsman&rdquo;? Ha ha.</p>
<h4 id="c50f5a8d-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-11-11 13:39</h4>
<p>Well, your &ldquo;problem&rdquo; (such as it is) is that you post a lot, you post on topics on which good data exists, and you post opinions on which the data have a bearing. So I can&rsquo;t resist taking the bait :-)</p>
<h4 id="c50f5a8d-004">Truemoderate (balic4567@yahoo.com) - 2010-11-11 16:15</h4>
<p>Good work Frank TM</p>
<h4 id="c50f5a8d-005"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-11-13 14:58</h4>
<p>Did you see the Saturday morning cartoon by Chris Bachmann? &ldquo;Republicans and the 2010 Howard County elections&rdquo; <a href="http://bit.ly/d5H6HF">http://bit.ly/d5H6HF</a> ;-)</p>
<h4 id="c50f5a8d-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-11-13 19:03</h4>
<p>I did, but to be honest I didn&rsquo;t find it as funny as the similar cartoon done by the Best Buy employee about customers&rsquo; insatiable desire for the iPhone 4.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How many people in Howard County work for the government?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/09/how-many-people-in-howard-county-work-for-the-government/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 09 Nov 2010 05:18:52 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/09/how-many-people-in-howard-county-work-for-the-government/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;There’s this meme going around that Howard County Republicans fared badly because Howard County has so many government workers, and they all vote for Democrats because they have an interest in growing the size of government.  For example, from an &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.explorehoward.com/news/76392/incumbents-close-sweep-howard-county/&#34;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Columbia Flier&lt;/em&gt; story&lt;/a&gt; quoting &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocogop.org/chairmansmessage.html&#34;&gt;Joan Becker&lt;/a&gt; of the Howard County Republican Party:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Republican message of smaller government didn’t play well in Maryland, the home of hundreds of government agencies and contractors, Becker said.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There’s this meme going around that Howard County Republicans fared badly because Howard County has so many government workers, and they all vote for Democrats because they have an interest in growing the size of government.  For example, from an <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/76392/incumbents-close-sweep-howard-county/"><em>Columbia Flier</em> story</a> quoting <a href="http://www.hocogop.org/chairmansmessage.html">Joan Becker</a> of the Howard County Republican Party:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Republican message of smaller government didn’t play well in Maryland, the home of hundreds of government agencies and contractors, Becker said.</p>
<p>“You can’t run on a campaign of less government when 30 percent of the people work for the government,” she said.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>More recently <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2010/11/too-young-for-gop.html#disqus_thread">in response to a <em>HoCo Rising</em> post</a> commenter Glewis upped the ante, claiming that</p>
<blockquote>
<p>50 percent (or more) of Howard County works for the government.  The same is true in Montgomery and Prince Georges.  Government workers always vote Democratic.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Fifty per cent of Howard County sounds like a lot of people, even leaving out kids and the retired.  So I couldn’t help wondering whether there were any authoritative sources of data on how many people in Howard County (or other Maryland counties) are government workers, whether at the Federal, state, and local level.</p>
<p>As it turns out, the <a href="http://www.census.gov/acs/www/">American Community Survey</a> data from the Bureau of the Census contains annual estimates of the size of the civilian work force in each US county, along with whether they work for private industry or various branches of government.  The following table (based on the 2009 ACS data) gives the percentage of the work force employed by local, state, or Federal governments in each of various Maryland counties, along with two counties in Virginia for comparison.</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>County</th>
          <th>Civilians employed</th>
          <th>Government workers</th>
          <th>% Government workers</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_S2408&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=309&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US24033&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Prince Georges</a></td>
          <td>434,699</td>
          <td>128,873</td>
          <td>29.6%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_S2408&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=309&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US24003&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Anne Arundel</a></td>
          <td>260,830</td>
          <td>61,773</td>
          <td>23.7%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_S2408&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=309&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US24025&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Harford</a></td>
          <td>126,581</td>
          <td>27,669</td>
          <td>21.9%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_S2408&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=309&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US51059&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Fairfax</a></td>
          <td>556,080</td>
          <td>121,178</td>
          <td>21.8%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_S2408&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=309&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US24031&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Montgomery</a></td>
          <td>514,836</td>
          <td>107,274</td>
          <td>20.8%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_S2408&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=309&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Howard</a></td>
          <td>151,184</td>
          <td>31,393</td>
          <td>20.8%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_S2408&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2009_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=309&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US51107&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Loudoun</a></td>
          <td>161,066</td>
          <td>24,213</td>
          <td>15.0%</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>Note that these figures do <em>not</em> include people who work for government contractors, so the number of people whose livelihoods are directly dependent on government spending is significantly higher than the percentages above might indicate.  I can easily believe, for example, that 30% of Howard County workers work for the government or for government contractors; it might even be 40 or 50% if we assume that government contractors outnumber government employees (which is somewhat plausible).</p>
<p>However, does this factor in and of itself explain the relative lack of success of Howard County Republicans in electing county executive and county council candidates and in getting out the vote for Robert Ehrlich?  Note from the above table that both Anne Arundel and Harford County have higher percentages of government workers than Howard.  Yet both Anne Arundel and Harford just (re)elected Republican county executives (<a href="http://www.aacounty.org/CountyExec/biography.cfm">John Leopold</a> and <a href="http://www.davidcraig.com/">David Craig</a> respectively).  Harford County in particular tilts so far Republican that Ehrlich got over 64% of the vote to less than 33% for O’Malley (as <a href="http://www.hocorising.com/2010/11/too-young-for-gop.html">noted recently by <em>HoCo Rising</em></a>), and <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-09-14/news/bs-md-ha-harford-roundup-primary-resu20100914_1_harford-executive-harford-county-voters-voter-interest">Democrats couldn’t even find candidates</a> to run against David Craig or to make up full slates for the county council and local state legislative districts.</p>
<p>Note also that Fairfax County in Virginia has a higher percentage of government workers than either Howard County or Montgomery County, but from what I can tell Fairfax County Republicans are doing reasonably well considering.  For example, there are <a href="http://www.fairfaxgop.com/currently-serving-officials/">three Republicans</a> on the ten-person <a href="http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/government/board/">Fairfax Board of Supervisors</a>, almost a third of the total.  Compare the one Republican out of five county council members in Howard, or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montgomery_County,_Maryland#Legislative_body">no Republicans</a> (that’s right, zero) on the <a href="http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/csltmpl.asp?url=https://frankhecker.com/content/council/index.asp">Montgomery County Council</a>.</p>
<p>Even without the benefit of the above statistics <em>HoCo Rising</em> felt justified in dismissing local Republican complaints about the voting patterns of government workers:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>[The] funny thing is that Maryland didn’t just move in next to DC.  Our state has always had federal workers, Howard County has always had federal workers, and Virginia, which has its own significant Federal Worker population, votes more conservative than Maryland.</p>
<p>If Republicans want to throw in the hat because of the feds, so be it.  But I think this is a lame excuse for failure.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As it happens I think HCR was being just a tad harsh.  I think there are in fact structural reasons why Republicans have problems in Howard County as opposed to Harford County and in Maryland as opposed to Virginia, probably due to the way voters sort themselves in choosing their preferred places to live.  <del>But I do agree that this idea that government workers in Howard County automatically vote Democratic in order to build “socialism in one county” is a crock, and the sooner we bury it the better.</del>  But I do agree that this idea that Republican woes are due primarily to our having more government workers is a crock, and the sooner we bury it the better.</p>
<p>UPDATE: I changed the last sentence to better reflect the conclusion I came to based on the evidence.  (I think the original sentence is true too, but that’s just my opinion.)</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="19f0a65a-006">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-11-09 11:51</h4>
<p>Frank, another great post! And, I must agree with Howard County Rising and you that the Republicans are only going to bury themselves deeper if continue to blame the make up of the electorate for their losses. Sounds a bit Jimmy Carterish to blame the losses on the malaise of the people! Instead, Howard County Republicans need to fashion a better message based on good government and competence. Some have expressed the opinion that many Democrats voted this time around to vote against the Tea Party! Maybe this is true. Maybe it isn&rsquo;t. But, the Republican Party cannot be defined by its wings. A message that scares most people is not bound to make a party very popular. As a Republican by birth, I have been dismayed over the past decade or two that the Republicans have allowed themselves to be defined as the Religious Right, the Party of No, the Tea Party, So, and the War Hawks, among other names. Ronald Reagan had the ability to make us all proud to be Americans while, at the same time, generally ran a competent government. Recall that during Jimmy Carter&rsquo;s term in office, many people thought the office was just too big for one person. Reagan reclaimed the office and, overall, stood for good government and competence. So, the Republicans in Howard County need to pull together, get rid of all factionalism that apparently exists, develop a more universal message, and find good candidates. Or, they can just blame everyone else. Which plan will really work?</p>
<h4 id="19f0a65a-001"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-11-09 12:03</h4>
<p>This is great. I&rsquo;ll toss in that I am continually surprised at just how many government contractors in my limited field of work are Republican, but obviously that&rsquo;s anecdotal.</p>
<h4 id="19f0a65a-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-11-09 14:43</h4>
<p>wildelakemake: Thanks as always for your comprehensive comments &ndash; you&rsquo;re sure you don&rsquo;t want to be a blogger? :-) It&rsquo;s not my job to revitalize the Republican party, but I do find it interesting that the GOP seems to be evolving into basically a socially conservative populist party &ndash; sort of what the Democratic party was in the late 19th century. It&rsquo;s almost as if many of today&rsquo;s Republicans have more in common with William Jennings Bryan than they do with William McKinley and Theodore Roosevelt.</p>
<h4 id="19f0a65a-003"><a href="http://www.thursdaybram.com" title="thursday@thursdaybram.com">Thursday Bram</a> - 2010-11-09 20:37</h4>
<p>I think the break down might be even more interesting if we could look at a break down of which of those government employees and contractors work for the Department of Defense. Considering the location of Ft. Meade, I wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised if Howard County&rsquo;s share of government employees are more likely to be involved with the DOD than you might find in other counties or states. It&rsquo;s been my experience from living next door to some military base or another for my entire life that military and DOD employees tend towards the right. Of course, there&rsquo;s no hard numbers there, but there&rsquo;s definitely some interesting implications.</p>
<h4 id="19f0a65a-005">Truemoderate (balic4567@yahoo.com) - 2010-11-10 22:00</h4>
<p>Frank, Howard County went incumbent. But the United States by in large went GOP, do you care to analyze that? As a disgruntled former Dem, why don&rsquo;t we turn the lense on how the Democratic party failed there moderate base and had the biggest &ldquo;shelllacking&rdquo; since the 1930&rsquo;s. Regards, TM</p>
<h4 id="19f0a65a-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-11-11 02:31</h4>
<p>I don&rsquo;t have anything particularly interesting to say about the national results that hasn&rsquo;t been said by others. If I had to guess, I&rsquo;d guess that the problem basically comes down to traditional midterm reversals + a horrendous economy + uncertainty about health care reform (especially one including Medicare cuts) in an electorate with proportionally more seniors than in 2008 + lingering populist anger at the bailout of banks.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Exploring Howard County election data with R, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 07 Nov 2010 04:36:07 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/11/07/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;The Maryland and Howard County general elections are now over, and we (mostly) know who won.  However there’s still one major question I’m waiting on the answer to, namely, what were the relatively proportions of Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated and other voters within the total population voting in the general election?  If you recall, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/&#34;&gt;I previously predicted&lt;/a&gt; that Democrats would be 46-47% of those voting in Howard County, Republicans 36%, and unaffiliated and other voters 16-17%.  I made a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/26/maryland-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/&#34;&gt;similar prediction for Maryland statewide&lt;/a&gt; (54% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 13% unaffiliated and other).  I’m curious to see how close I came to the actual numbers.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Maryland and Howard County general elections are now over, and we (mostly) know who won.  However there’s still one major question I’m waiting on the answer to, namely, what were the relatively proportions of Republicans, Democrats, and unaffiliated and other voters within the total population voting in the general election?  If you recall, <a href="/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">I previously predicted</a> that Democrats would be 46-47% of those voting in Howard County, Republicans 36%, and unaffiliated and other voters 16-17%.  I made a <a href="/2010/10/26/maryland-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">similar prediction for Maryland statewide</a> (54% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 13% unaffiliated and other).  I’m curious to see how close I came to the actual numbers.</p>
<p>I’m guessing that authoritative reports on voter turnout broken down by party won’t be available until all absentee ballots are counted and the official results are released.  In the meantime I thought it would be fun to write up some posts on how anyone interested can try to do these sorts of predictions for themselves, using publicly available data and free software.  This is a bit geeky, but it’s also fun if you’re into politics and elections, and it requires only minimal math skills.  If you’re interested please read on.</p>
<p>As I previously mentioned, in doing these predictions I used the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_%28programming_language%29">R statistical software package</a>.  Versions of R suitable for use on Windows and Mac systems are available at no charge from either the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/">R Project for Statistical Computing</a> (the open source project that develops the software) or <a href="http://www.revolutionanalytics.com/">Revolution Analytics</a> (a company that sells proprietary software based on R).  For these posts I’ll use the version available from the R Project.  (Downloading Revolution R, the version from Revolution Analytics, requires you to supply some basic personal information.)</p>
<p>You first need to download and install the R software, either the <a href="http://watson.nci.nih.gov/cran_mirror/bin/windows/">Windows version</a> or the <a href="http://watson.nci.nih.gov/cran_mirror/bin/macosx/">Mac version</a> as appropriate; for Windows you just need the “base” distribution, and for Mac the file <code>R-2.12.0.pkg</code>.  (The version number in the file’s name may be slightly different depending on when you download the software.)  The R software is pretty straightforward to install: just double-click on the downloaded file and follow the instructions in the install wizard, accepting all the installation defaults.  However if you’re unsure how to do it or if you encounter problems, check out the <a href="http://watson.nci.nih.gov/cran_mirror/bin/windows/base/rw-FAQ.html#How-do-I-install-R-for-Windows_003f">relevant section of the Windows FAQ</a> and the <a href="http://watson.nci.nih.gov/cran_mirror/bin/macosx/RMacOSX-FAQ.html#R_002eapp">Mac FAQ for R.app</a>.</p>
<p>Once you’ve got your copy of R installed, you can execute it simply by double-clicking on the application icon (or, on Windows, invoking it from the Start menu), just as you would with any other Windows or Mac application.  R primarily uses a command line interface, so look for a window that displays the R version and startup information and then presents a command prompt (“&gt;”):</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">R</span> <span class="n">version</span> <span class="m">2.12.0</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="m">2010-10-15</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="nf">Copyright </span><span class="p">(</span><span class="n">C</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="m">2010</span> <span class="n">The</span> <span class="n">R</span> <span class="n">Foundation</span> <span class="kr">for</span> <span class="n">Statistical</span> <span class="n">Computing</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="kc">...</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Type</span> ’<span class="nf">demo</span><span class="p">()</span>’ <span class="kr">for</span> <span class="n">some</span> <span class="n">demos</span><span class="p">,</span> ’<span class="nf">help</span><span class="p">()</span>’ <span class="kr">for</span> <span class="n">on</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">line</span> <span class="n">help</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">or</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">’<span class="nf">help.start</span><span class="p">()</span>’ <span class="kr">for</span> <span class="n">an</span> <span class="n">HTML</span> <span class="n">browser</span> <span class="n">interface</span> <span class="n">to</span> <span class="n">help.</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">Type</span> ’<span class="nf">q</span><span class="p">()</span>’ <span class="n">to</span> <span class="n">quit</span> <span class="n">R.</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[R.app</span> <span class="n">GUI</span> <span class="m">1.35</span> <span class="p">(</span><span class="m">5632</span><span class="p">)</span> <span class="n">i386</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">apple</span><span class="o">-</span><span class="n">darwin9.8.0]</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>(The above output is from R running on a Mac; the output for Windows will look slightly different.)</p>
<p>The first R command you should try is <code>getwd()</code>, which prints the “working directory” from which R will load data files by default; you’ll need to know this for the next step.  Just enter the command as shown in the example below and hit the return key.  (The output below is from my Mac system; on Windows the working directory will display as a Windows path, except with the backslash character “\” replaced with a slash character “/.”)</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="nf">getwd</span><span class="p">()</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="s">&#34;/Users/hecker&#34;</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Now for some data.  Let’s start with the data sets for Howard County voter turnout for general elections from 1988 through 2008 (<code>[howard-county-md-general-election-turnout.txt][howard]</code>) and for primary elections over the same period (omitting 1996, for which no data was available) (<code>[howard-county-md-primary-election-turnout.txt][howard02]</code>).  To download the data as text files to your Windows system, right-click on each link (click the right mouse button while the cursor is over the link) and select “Save Target As&hellip;”  (for IE8) or “Save Link As&hellip;” (for Firefox).  On Mac systems control-click on each link (click the mouse while holding down the “Control” key) and select ”Save Linked File As&hellip;”  (for Safari) or “Save Link As&hellip;” (for Firefox).  Select a suitable directory in which to download the two files; if possible choose the directory that was displayed as a result of entering the <code>getwd()</code> command into R as discussed above.</p>
<p>If you’d like you can use the complete data sets for all elections. However since our focus is on the 2010 election I think it’s best to limit ourselves to the data for past Maryland gubernatorial elections, since turnout patterns in those years are somewhat different than those in presidential election years.  The simplest way to do this is to make copies of the files <code>howard-county-md-general-election-turnout.txt</code> and <code>howard-county-md-primary-election-turnout.txt</code> you downloaded above, and then edit the copies to delete the lines corresponding to the presidential election years (1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008).</p>
<p>Since these are both text files, you can edit them using any suitable text editor, including Notepad on Windows and TextEdit on Mac.  (Since the lines in the files are very long, the files will be easier to edit if you make the editing window very wide.)  The resulting files should retain the initial header line and then have five lines containing the data for 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006.  You can call the new files anything you wish, but for purposes of this example I’ll call them <code>hoco-gub-gen-turnout.txt</code> and <code>hoco-gub-pri-turnout.txt</code>.</p>
<p>Finally, let’s load the data files into R.  Make sure that the two files <code>hoco-gub-gen-turnout.txt</code> and <code>hoco-gub-pri-turnout.txt</code> are in the directory displayed by the <code>getwd()</code> command; if they’re not already there move them there now.  Then in R use the following commands to load the data:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span> <span class="o">&lt;-</span> <span class="nf">read.table</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s">&#34;hoco-gub-gen-turnout.txt&#34;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">header</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="kc">TRUE</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgp</span> <span class="o">&lt;-</span> <span class="nf">read.table</span><span class="p">(</span><span class="s">&#34;hoco-gub-pri-turnout.txt&#34;</span><span class="p">,</span> <span class="n">header</span><span class="o">=</span><span class="kc">TRUE</span><span class="p">)</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>What we’re doing here is using the <code>read.table()</code> function to read data from each file, and then assigning the resulting data (using the “&lt;-” assignment operator) to two newly created variables <code>hgg</code> (for the Howard County gubernatorial general election data) and <code>hgp</code> (for the Howard County gubernatorial primary election data).  (In R terminology <code>hgg</code> and <code>hgp</code> are referred to as “data frames.”)  Note that the variable names are arbitrary; I used short names because we’ll be typing them in a lot; however if you wish you could use longer names like <code>hoco_gub_gen_data</code> and <code>hoco_gub_pri_data</code>.</p>
<p>Since we didn’t supply directory paths for the two files, R looked for them in the current working directory (given by the <code>getwd()</code> command).  The <code>header=TRUE</code> option tells R that the first line of each file is a header line, and that the actual data starts with the second line.</p>
<p>We can now test to make sure the data loaded correctly by printing out particular columns; the variable for each column is given by either <code>hgg$</code> or <code>hgp$</code> followed by the name of that column as read from the data file.  For example, entering the variable names <code>hgg$Year</code> and <code>hgp$Year</code> will print out the data from the first column of each file, containing the year:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">1990</span> <span class="m">1994</span> <span class="m">1998</span> <span class="m">2002</span> <span class="m">2006</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgp</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">Year</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">1990</span> <span class="m">1994</span> <span class="m">1998</span> <span class="m">2002</span> <span class="m">2006</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>(Note that variable names in R are case-sensitive, so you must type <code>hgg$Year</code> with a capital “Y”; typing <code>hgg$year</code> will produce the error value “NULL.”)</p>
<p>As a second test, print the percentage of unaffiliated and other voters for each election (the last column in the table):</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span>  <span class="m">9.39</span> <span class="m">10.95</span> <span class="m">12.07</span> <span class="m">13.28</span> <span class="m">15.27</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgp</span><span class="o">$</span><span class="n">PctVotersOther</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="n">[1]</span> <span class="m">1.36</span> <span class="m">1.75</span> <span class="m">1.85</span> <span class="m">3.58</span> <span class="m">3.16</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>Finally, you can also enter the variable names <code>hgg</code> and <code>hgp</code> by themselves to print all columns and rows of the table.  For example, here’s how to print all the values in the data frame <code>hgg</code>:</p>
<div class="highlight"><pre tabindex="0" class="chroma"><code class="language-r" data-lang="r"><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span> <span class="n">hgg</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">  <span class="n">Year</span> <span class="n">Registered</span> <span class="n">Turnout</span> <span class="n">PctTurnout</span>  <span class="n">RegD</span> <span class="n">PctRegD</span> <span class="n">TurnoutD</span> <span class="n">PctTurnoutD</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">1</span> <span class="m">1990</span>      <span class="m">94550</span>   <span class="m">53440</span>      <span class="m">56.52</span> <span class="m">48234</span>   <span class="m">51.01</span>    <span class="m">29418</span>       <span class="m">60.99</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">2</span> <span class="m">1994</span>     <span class="m">106389</span>   <span class="m">74320</span>      <span class="m">69.86</span> <span class="m">52813</span>   <span class="m">49.64</span>    <span class="m">38293</span>       <span class="m">72.51</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">3</span> <span class="m">1998</span>     <span class="m">130862</span>   <span class="m">84040</span>      <span class="m">64.22</span> <span class="m">62156</span>   <span class="m">47.50</span>    <span class="m">42393</span>       <span class="m">68.20</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">4</span> <span class="m">2002</span>     <span class="m">141565</span>   <span class="m">97162</span>      <span class="m">68.63</span> <span class="m">66280</span>   <span class="m">46.82</span>    <span class="m">46968</span>       <span class="m">70.86</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">5</span> <span class="m">2006</span>     <span class="m">165019</span>  <span class="m">106756</span>      <span class="m">64.69</span> <span class="m">77030</span>   <span class="m">46.68</span>    <span class="m">52819</span>       <span class="m">68.57</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">   <span class="n">RegR</span> <span class="n">PctRegR</span> <span class="n">TurnoutR</span> <span class="n">PctTurnoutR</span> <span class="n">RegOther</span> <span class="n">PctRegOther</span> <span class="n">TurnoutOther</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">1</span> <span class="m">34767</span>   <span class="m">36.77</span>    <span class="m">19002</span>       <span class="m">54.66</span>    <span class="m">11549</span>       <span class="m">12.21</span>         <span class="m">5020</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">2</span> <span class="m">38729</span>   <span class="m">36.40</span>    <span class="m">27892</span>       <span class="m">72.02</span>    <span class="m">14847</span>       <span class="m">13.96</span>         <span class="m">8135</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">3</span> <span class="m">47853</span>   <span class="m">36.57</span>    <span class="m">31504</span>       <span class="m">65.83</span>    <span class="m">20853</span>       <span class="m">15.94</span>        <span class="m">10143</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">4</span> <span class="m">50920</span>   <span class="m">35.97</span>    <span class="m">37288</span>       <span class="m">73.23</span>    <span class="m">24365</span>       <span class="m">17.21</span>        <span class="m">12906</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">5</span> <span class="m">55843</span>   <span class="m">33.84</span>    <span class="m">37639</span>       <span class="m">67.40</span>    <span class="m">32146</span>       <span class="m">19.48</span>        <span class="m">16298</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl">  <span class="n">PctTurnoutOther</span> <span class="n">PctVotersD</span> <span class="n">PctVotersR</span> <span class="n">PctVotersOther</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">1</span>           <span class="m">43.47</span>      <span class="m">55.05</span>      <span class="m">35.56</span>           <span class="m">9.39</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">2</span>           <span class="m">54.79</span>      <span class="m">51.52</span>      <span class="m">37.53</span>          <span class="m">10.95</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">3</span>           <span class="m">48.64</span>      <span class="m">50.44</span>      <span class="m">37.49</span>          <span class="m">12.07</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">4</span>           <span class="m">52.97</span>      <span class="m">48.34</span>      <span class="m">38.38</span>          <span class="m">13.28</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="m">5</span>           <span class="m">50.70</span>      <span class="m">49.48</span>      <span class="m">35.26</span>          <span class="m">15.27</span>
</span></span><span class="line"><span class="cl"><span class="o">&gt;</span>
</span></span></code></pre></div><p>That’s it for today’s lesson.  You now know how to start R, load in a data table, and print out its values.  If you’d like to quit R at this point simply use the <code>q()</code>command, and tell R to save the workspace image when it asks.  (This will allow you to start R next time and use the data you loaded without having to load it again from the files.)  In the <a href="/2010/11/13/exploring-howard-county-election-data-with-r-part-2/">next post</a> we’ll start doing some basic data analysis.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="99d4ffeb-006"><a href="http://www.jameshoward.us" title="jh@jameshoward.us">James Howard</a> - 2010-11-07 13:54</h4>
<p>Hey, as a long-time R hacker, this is cool to see.</p>
<h4 id="99d4ffeb-008"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-11-07 16:24</h4>
<p>Glad you liked the post. Note that I&rsquo;m just learning R, and I&rsquo;m also in the very early stages of relearning all the statistics stuff I studied in college. So if you see any points where I go off the rails please feel free to correct me.</p>
<h4 id="99d4ffeb-007"><a href="http://www.jameshoward.us" title="jh@jameshoward.us">James P. Howard, II</a> - 2010-11-09 12:43</h4>
<p>You&rsquo;re doing fine so far. R is significantly simpler to use than, say, SAS or Stata, but a lot of people are intimidated by the learning curve. So just keep going and shoot me an email (or Twitter) if you have any questions.</p>
<h4 id="99d4ffeb-003"><a href="http://www.centauripartners.com" title="jeff@centauripartners.com">Jeff Johnston</a> - 2010-11-16 00:09</h4>
<p>Hey Frank, this is way cool. When we get there, I&rsquo;d like you to consider porting your statistical data sets to ManyEyes and doing some visualization with it. Jeff J.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A Howard County Democrat looks at Ed Priola</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/30/a-howard-county-democrat-looks-at-ed-priola/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 30 Oct 2010 02:13:26 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/30/a-howard-county-democrat-looks-at-ed-priola/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;As I’ve written before, I don’t plan to urge people to vote for or against particular candidates, and I don’t plan to publicize who I vote for or against.  So why I am doing a post about &lt;a href=&#34;http://edpriola.com/&#34;&gt;Ed Priola&lt;/a&gt;, given that he’s not of my party (I’m a registered Democrat) and I don’t live in his district?  Put simply, because a number of people in the Howard County blogosphere whom I like and respect have &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/ed-priola-hits-tube.html&#34;&gt;mentioned Priola in favorable terms&lt;/a&gt; and in some cases &lt;a href=&#34;http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/10/district-13-house-of-delegates.html&#34;&gt;formally&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com/2010/10/hoco-politicos-2010-general-election.html&#34;&gt;endorsed&lt;/a&gt; him, because he has some proposals I found interesting and wanted to comment on, and because I thought it would be fun to write about someone elsewhere on the political spectrum.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As I’ve written before, I don’t plan to urge people to vote for or against particular candidates, and I don’t plan to publicize who I vote for or against.  So why I am doing a post about <a href="http://edpriola.com/">Ed Priola</a>, given that he’s not of my party (I’m a registered Democrat) and I don’t live in his district?  Put simply, because a number of people in the Howard County blogosphere whom I like and respect have <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/ed-priola-hits-tube.html">mentioned Priola in favorable terms</a> and in some cases <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/10/district-13-house-of-delegates.html">formally</a> <a href="http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com/2010/10/hoco-politicos-2010-general-election.html">endorsed</a> him, because he has some proposals I found interesting and wanted to comment on, and because I thought it would be fun to write about someone elsewhere on the political spectrum.</p>
<p>This isn’t intended as a comprehensive profile; it’s basically some semi-random comments from some time spent on Google.  So without further ado, here’s my quick take on Ed Priola:</p>
<ul>
<li>Ed Priola is a conservative Republican focused primarily on fiscal issues, whose position on social issues is downplayed but is apparently consistent with the <a href="http://www.gop.com/2008Platform/Values.htm">national Republican party platform</a>.</li>
<li>Ed Priola’s primary background is as a professional political activist, with stints both in conservative advocacy groups and in government-funded organizations promoting democracy and private enterprise in other countries.</li>
<li>Ed Priola is an “ideas guy” with a strong interest in government reforms such as term limits, special tax and regulatory regimes for small businesses, and measures to improve government transparency and accountability.</li>
</ul>
<p>To expand on each of these points:</p>
<p><em>Ed Priola is a conservative Republican</em>, self-described as being in the tradition of Ronald Reagan (whom he acknowledges in a <a href="http://redmaryland.blogspot.com/2010/07/ed-priola-candidate-md-house-of.html">Red Maryland interview</a> as his main ideological influence).  This includes the traditional Reaganite focus on fiscal conservatism, limited government, free enterprise, and so on.</p>
<p>Of course, claiming that you’re acting in the spirit of Ronald Reagan is practically a cliché with today’s Republican politicians.  Besides the policy issues, the other things I’d expect to see in a true disciple of Reagan include optimism about America and its future, a patriotism that’s potentially inclusive of all Americans, a certain pragmatism deployed when needed, and vigorous partisanship that’s not contaminated by the politics of vitriol or resentment.  (Not that Ronald Reagan himself embodied all these characteristics at all times; however I think it’s fair to say that these are part of the “ideal” of Reagan for many people.)</p>
<p>Based on my (admittedly superficial) investigation Priola seems to come closer this to ideal than many candidates.  In particular, while he’s happy to inveigh in true Reaganesque fashion about “tax and spend” policies and “dinosaurs in Annapolis,” he seems to avoid using the word “liberal” as an all-purpose insult or talking about “socialists” and “communists” outside the proper historical context&mdash;overall, he’s a breath of fresh air in that respect.  (As I discuss below, Ed Priola has actually worked in former Soviet bloc countries, which may be one reason he doesn’t use the word “communist” lightly.)</p>
<p>Another trait Priola appears to share with Reagan is a focus on fiscal conservatism first and foremost, and social conservatism secondarily.  For example, in his <a href="http://www.oldlineelephant.com/blogweb/index.php?/archives/33-Old-Line-Elephant-Interview-Ed-Priola-R-MD.html">Old Line Elephant interview</a> Priola doesn’t stray from a traditional Republican pro-life line (“I favor the protection of life at all stages”) but it’s not clear how enthusiastic he is about using constitutional amendments to enforce that position.  I couldn’t find any comments from Priola on same-sex marriage or other “hot-button” social issues; as with abortion, I suspect he’d take a pretty standard Republican position, but again I doubt he’d be a full-throated participant in the “culture wars.”<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Before I get off social issues, I should note that Ed Priola is apparently also a firm supporter of gun rights, and has been <a href="http://www.edpriola.com/endorsements.htm">endorsed by all the relevant Maryland pro-gun organizations</a>.  (Though that’s also an orthodox Republican position, I consider it more of a libertarian position than a socially conservative position per se.)</p>
<p><em>Ed Priola’s primary background is as a professional political activist</em>, not as a businessperson or elected officeholder.  I think it’s fair to say that he’s a “movement conservative,” with experience in such organizations as the <a href="http://www.gop.com/2008Platform/Values.htm">National Taxpayers Union</a> and <a href="http://www.termlimits.org/content.asp?pl=2&amp;contentid=2">US Term Limits</a>.  Based on his <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=3977231&amp;authType=name&amp;authToken=FCBu&amp;locale=en_US&amp;pvs=pp&amp;pohelp=&amp;trk=ppro_viewmore">full LinkedIn profile</a> he’s also had stints with the <a href="http://www.iri.org/">International Republican Institute</a> (along with the <a href="http://www.ndi.org/">National Democratic Institute</a>, one of two US government-funded sister organizations promoting democracy and political development around the world), the <a href="http://www.cipe.org/">Center for International Private Enterprise</a> (another government-funded organization working internationally, this one focusing on promotion of private enterprise and market-oriented reforms), the <a href="http://www.victimsofcommunism.org/">Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation</a>, and as a political, communications, and PR consultant.</p>
<p>I think what a person does in their career both impacts and reflects their personal beliefs (this was certainly the case for me), so it’s worth taking a minute to comment on Ed Priola’s resume.</p>
<p>First, it’s worth noting that the National Taxpayers Union was run for a while by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Norquist">Grover Norquist</a>, most recently known for threatening to <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/exchequer/250143/grover-norquist-living-candyland">excommunicate Indiana governor Mitch Daniels</a> from the Republican Party for daring to mention even the possibility of incorporating tax increases into an overall deficit reduction plan.  After his departure from NTU Norquist founded <a href="http://www.atr.org/index.php?content=about">Americans for Tax Reform</a>, an organization which “opposes all tax increases as a matter of principle.”</p>
<p>It’s not clear to me whether the National Taxpayers Union was or is as doctrinaire on tax issues as Americans for Tax Reform, but in any case Ed Priola has publicly committed to ATR’s agenda, including formally signing the <a href="http://www.atr.org/taxpayer-protection-pledge-a2882">Taxpayer Protection Pledge</a>, “committing to “oppose and vote against any and all efforts to increase taxes.”” For the record, I consider the Taxpayer Protection Pledge to be for the most part an unserious political gimmick.  Taken literally (and Republicans seem to be pretty literal about this) it would mean, for example, that in the event of an extreme state fiscal crisis Priola would vote against a budget-balancing initiative that contained major spending cuts if it contained even a single small tax increase.  However I don’t consider the Taxpayer Protection Pledge as pernicious as the <a href="http://www.howardcountygopclub.com/taxpayer-protection-initiative">Taxpayer Protection Initiative</a>, since the pledge binds only candidates who sign it while the TPI would have permanently altered the Howard County government’s ability to tax.  (I can’t find any public information about Ed Priola’s position on the TPI.)<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Priola’s time with US Term Limits obviously accounts for his interest in term limits.  Since I’m discussing that below I’ll skip ahead to his work with NRI and CIPE, which apparently he inititally did as a volunteer, and which is addressed in a bit more detail in his <a href="http://www.edpriola.com/abouted.htm">campaign biography</a>.  I must confess that Priola’s work in countries like Romania, Albania, and others was one of the things I found interesting and noteworthy about him.</p>
<p>As I’ll discuss in a series of post-election blog posts (when I have time to finish them), I strongly believe that America’s long-term security depends on our ability to promote the growth of an economically secure global middle class that will be the key constituency for political freedom, democracy, and the rule of law worldwide.  Since “security” in the broad sense is one of the most important “exports” of this region, I think the future of Howard County is closely intertwined with that process of global economic and political transformation.  I therefore believe it’s important that our state and even county politicians have experience of the world outside the US, and I count Priola’s work with IRI and CIPE as a definite plus in that regard.</p>
<p><em>Ed Priola is an “ideas guy”</em>, with a strong interest in reforms related to government structures and processes.  The idea he’s promoting most heavily is that of term limits for Maryland state legislators, an issue whose importance to him clearly dates back to his days working with US Term Limits.</p>
<p>Speaking personally, I consider term limits to be neither a disaster nor a panacea.  The major argument against term limits (raised in a <a href="http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/2010/09/post_141.html">recent “Second Opinion” piece</a> in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>) is that they “suck expertise and experience out of a state legislature.”  While that may be true of some term limit proposals I don’t think it’s true of Priola’s, which doesn’t limit the maximum number of terms a legislator may serve but rather requires them to sit out a term after serving two consecutive terms.  (This is the same term limits restriction that currently applies to Maryland governors.)  All in all I’d be supportive of this particular term limits scheme.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>On the other hand I don’t think term limits by themselves will realize their proponents’ vision of making the “dinosaurs” extinct and continually bringing in fresh groups of true citizen-legislators.  In particular, I think there are two associated reforms that would likely be necessary.  The first is to severely restrict the role of seniority in handing out committee assignments and other prize legislative plums.  For example, if we did adopt Priola’s proposals then I can see the legislature allowing legislators to count cumulative time in office when computing seniority.  This favors legislators who don’t really return to private life after two terms but rather stick around Annapolis (perhaps as lobbyists) and then come back to pick up more “dinosaur points” on their way to positions of true power and influence.</p>
<p>Another reform that may be needed to supplement term limits is some sort of redistricting reform, e.g., the use of nonpartisan (or at least less partisan) <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistricting_commission">redistricting commissions</a>.  Otherwise parties will be motivated to exert even more influence over the redistricting process, in an effort to maximize the chances that a term-limited legislator is replaced by someone who’s ideologically indistinguishable from their predecessor.  Priola <a href="http://www.edpriola.com/apps/blog/show/4756161-response-to-sun-editorials">acknowledges the problems posed by redistricting</a> and other structural factors that advantage incumbents, but doesn’t appear to propose any solutions beyond term limits.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>Another of Priola’s proposals is to introduce so-called “zero-based budgeting.”  This is an idea that’s now being championed by many conservatives, e.g., by the <a href="http://www.reagansociety.org/AboutUs.htm">Ronald Reagan Conservative Society</a>: “Governmental budgets should be based on zero-based budgeting, all departments should have to provide yearly justifications rather than receive an annual increase to their budget.” As it happens, <a href="http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/management/Tr-Z/Zero-Based-Budgeting.html">zero-based budgeting was originally promoted in a state government context by Jimmy Carter</a> (as governor of Georgia), and then later introduced by him into the Federal government as President.  It proved to be <a href="http://capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/stan-collender/1761/you-want-cut-deficit-heres-how">somewhat complicated and politically difficult to implement</a>, and apparently once Ronald Reagan took office <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=kZwQQHzKmUYC&amp;pg=PA71&amp;lpg=PA71&amp;dq=zero-based+budgeting+stockman&amp;source=bl&amp;ots=DGCEwxRZrD&amp;sig=SpYc8WEBFH3ijN4KfIDUz63qbOo&amp;hl=en&amp;ei=3JvKTMecF8GblgeR6vDgAQ&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=book_result&amp;ct=result&amp;resnum=1&amp;ved=0CBcQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&amp;q=zero-based%20budgeting%20stockman&amp;f=false">he abandoned zero-based budgeting</a> in favor of an alternative approach.  (The present-day Republican governor of Georgia recently <a href="http://www.capitalgainsandgames.com/blog/stan-collender/1784/down-and-down-zero-based-budgeting-rears-its-head-again-georgia">angered Tea Party members by rejecting zero-based budgeting</a> as a Carter-era failure.)</p>
<p>It’s unclear whether Ed Priola has thought deeply about how zero-based budgeting might work in the context of Maryland state government.  In the absence of any evidence to the contrary it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that Priola’s and others’ promotion of zero-based budgeting is simply another way for politicians to avoid talking about actual identified spending cuts&mdash;similar to the perennial call to “<a href="http://www.onenewsnow.com/Politics/Default.aspx?id=1204530">cut waste and fraud</a>” in government or Obama’s “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/business/economy/28fiscal.html">bipartisan debt commission</a>.”</p>
<p>Moving on, Priola has advanced some ideas about ways that state government can help small businesses get started and grow.  For example, in discussing his <a href="http://www.edpriola.com/apps/blog/entries/show/4450652-my-top-three-priorities">top three priorities</a> he’s mentioned having an “incubation period” for newly-formed small businesses.  It’s not exactly clear what Priola is proposing for this incubation period, except perhaps for some kind of simplified tax regime, but it’s an idea worth exploring in my opinion.</p>
<p>One of the challenges in this area is figuring out exactly what sorts of issues are worth addressing.  For example, there are lots of reports that rank states according to business friendliness and related qualities, focusing variously on tax considerations (the <a href="http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/22658.html">State Business Tax Climate Index</a> from the <a href="http://www.taxfoundation.org/">Tax Foundation</a> and the <a href="http://www.sbecouncil.org/survivalindex2009/">Small Business Survival Index</a> from the <a href="http://www.sbecouncil.org/about/">Small Business and Entrepreneurship Council</a>), CEO perceptions (Chief Executive magazine’s “<a href="http://chiefexecutive.net/ME2/Audiences/dirmod.asp?sid=&amp;nm=&amp;type=Publishing&amp;mod=Publications::Article&amp;mid=8F3A7027421841978F18BE895F87F791&amp;tier=4&amp;id=59FD13C5177B40B0B2D3EBA9E4384572&amp;AudID=72E5923167534E2FA8CAC760727D0426">Best and Worst States for Business</a>”), entrepreneurial opportunities (the <a href="http://www.kauffman.org/Details.aspx?id=5812">State New Economy Index</a> from the <a href="http://www.kauffman.org/">Kauffman Foundation</a>), and a grab-bag of economic and other metrics (CNBC’s ratings of “<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/37554006/">business-friendly states</a>”).</p>
<p>However none of these seem to focus specifically and primarily on regulatory barriers faced by business.  On the international scene the World Bank for some time now has produced reports detailing the ease of <a href="http://www.doingbusiness.org/">doing business</a> in various countries.  (In case anyone is curious, the US currently ranks number 4, after Singapore, New Zealand, and Hong Kong.)  The methodology used to compile these rankings incorporates a lot of measures around government regulations and associated compliance efforts, and it might be possible and appropriate to apply a variant of this methodology at the state government level.  Given Ed Priola’s experience in other countries promoting local political and economic reforms, it would be interesting to see if he had any thoughts on this topic.</p>
<p>Finally, another Ed Priola priority is to “bring full transparency and accountability to Maryland government.”  The particular idea Priola is pushing here is to provide <a href="http://www.edpriola.com/apps/blog/entries/show/2055159-why-maryland-needs-more-sunlight">comprehensive television coverage of state legislative activities</a>.  I very much share Priola’s interest in more transparency and accountability, which is really an issue that cuts across (or at least should cut across) party lines.</p>
<p>However speaking personally I’d put less priority on a “C-SPAN for Maryland” and more priority on making raw data available about state government activities, in a form which can be easily searched and used.  (This appears to be <a href="http://www.marylandreporter.com/page5501520.aspx">one of Warren Miller’s priorities</a> too, for which I applaud him&mdash;although his <a href="http://batesmiller.com/">campaign site</a> is silent on this point.)  Such release of data should in my opinion include not only contract awards and legislative and regulatory actions, but really any data that Maryland state government collects and maintains at taxpayer expense and which can be made available to the public without compromising personal privacy or business proprietary information.  This includes making such data available at no charge online, and not relying on commercial companies to be gatekeepers for government information.</p>
<p>I really think Ed Priola and others are thinking too small here, and are also looking at 20th century solutions when they could be looking at 21st century ones.  To some degree it’s been overhyped, but I think the overall set of ideas encompassed in the term “<a href="http://radar.oreilly.com/2010/05/what-does-government-20-look-l.html">Government 2.0</a>” is well worth looking at, and could potentially match up much better with the ways in which we’ll create and consume information in the future, (Compare, for example, Priola’s “MD-SPAN” idea, which is based on a traditional broadcast television model, with Mark Drapeau’s somewhat fanciful but intriguing vision of “<a href="http://radar.oreilly.com/2009/12/what-would-always-on-the-recor.html">always-on-the-record government</a>.”)</p>
<p>Much of this activity has been spearheaded by liberal Democrats like <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beth_Simone_Noveck">Beth Noveck</a>, who heads Obama’s <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/open">open government initiative</a>, or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ellen_S._Miller">Ellen Miller</a> of the <a href="http://sunlightfoundation.com/about/">Sunlight Foundation</a>.  However there’s no reason that conservative Republicans can’t get in on the fun, and I invite them to do so.  This is especially true since one of the key tenets of the Government 2.0 movement is <em>not</em> to create massive new government bureaucracies, but rather to make a core set of government data and online services freely available and then leverage as much as possible the work of private enterprises, nonprofit organizations, and even individual citizens who can add value to the data and create new and useful information and services.</p>
<p>And on that bipartisan note I’ll add this post.  I’m sorry I didn’t have the time and energy to do this sort of deep-dive on other local candidates, both Democratic and Republican.  To add to what I said above, focusing on Ed Priola wasn’t meant as a slight on anyone else, it’s just the way things worked out.  If I haven’t burned out on Howard County blogging by 2012 perhaps I’ll do a broader set of profiles in that election cycle.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="a667a45d-004"><a href="http://sectorpublic.com" title="drapeaum@gmail.com">Mark Drapeau</a> - 2010-10-30 17:30</h4>
<p>Thanks for the nice shout outs to some of my Gov 2.0 writing!</p>
<h4 id="a667a45d-001"><a href="http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com" title="trevordentist@gmail.com">Trevo</a> - 2010-10-31 13:10</h4>
<p>Frank, Yet again, a fantastically written post. I spent all day with Ed Priola yesterday. He was quite impressed with the post. In his words, you got 95% of the post correct. The only thing he mentioned you missed was that he worked for Ronald Regan. Good work, and great research. -Trevor</p>
<h4 id="a667a45d-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-31 14:06</h4>
<p>Trevor: Glad you liked the post. My apologies for omitting the fact that Ed Priola worked on Reagan&rsquo;s campaign. It&rsquo;s right there in the Red Maryland interview (which I linked to) but I missed it.</p>
<h4 id="a667a45d-003">HoCo Rising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-11-01 17:58</h4>
<p>A Frank Hecker post linked in a Republican GOTV piece! I never thought I would see the day!</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>As an aside, the Republican party has become even more socially conservative since Reagan’s time; for example, I can’t imagine any present-day Republican with aspirations to national office taking the kinds of political risks Reagan took in <a href="http://spectator.org/archives/2009/02/26/reagan-and-milk/print">opposing the Briggs Initiative</a>.  So in today’s GOP I think the best we can expect of a candidate is that they take the approach <a href="http://kittleman.com/gops-future-lies-with-economy-not-social-issues/">espoused by Allan Kittleman</a> and others and stick to an economic agenda as much as possible.)&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Note that Allan Kittleman is the opposite of Ed Priola in this respect: Although <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=raKHBpCUY80">he promoted the Taxpayer Protection Initiative</a>, I can’t find any indication that he’s signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge.  However several other local Republican <a href="http://www.atr.org/files/files/State%20Taxpayer%20Protection%20Pledge%20List(10">incumbents</a>.pdf) and <a href="http://www.atr.org/files/files/2010%20State%20Challengers%20List_CURRENT(1">challengers</a>.pdf) have signed the <a href="http://www.atr.org/userfiles/StatePledge.pdf">state version of the pledge</a>, including Gail Bates, Warren Miller, Kyle Lorton, and Jeff Robinson.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>The article “<a href="http://www.citymayors.com/government/term-limits.html">Arguments for and against term limits</a>” by Mayraj Fahim contains exactly that, and is a good summary of the term limits debate.  Besides being a good example of a pro-term limits position, the article “<a href="http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-221.html">Real Term Limits: Now More Than Ever</a>” by Doug Bandow provides a fascinating picture of the fissures that the term limits issue caused within the Republican party in the mid 1990s (apparently the period during which Ed Priola was professionally engaged in term limits advocacy).&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>For more on redistricting reform see the pages maintained by various organizations including <a href="http://www.americansforredistrictingreform.org/">Americans for Redistricting Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.commoncause.org/site/pp.asp?c=dkLNK1MQIwG&amp;b=4949997">Common Cause</a>, the <a href="http://www.dlc.org/ndol_ci.cfm?contentid=253454&amp;kaid=139&amp;subid=900083">Democratic Leadership Council</a>, <a href="http://archive.fairvote.org/index.php?page=261">FairVote</a>, and the <a href="http://www.lwv.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Redistricting">League of Women Voters</a>.  See also the academic paper “<a href="http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/4/0/6/2/pages140629/p140629-1.php">The Effects of Nonpartisan Redistricting Boards and Commissions on Competition in Congressional Elections</a>,” which attempts to measure the effectiveness of redistricting reforms in practice.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Unaffiliated or independent?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/27/unaffiliated-or-independent/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 27 Oct 2010 19:12:45 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/27/unaffiliated-or-independent/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In the course of &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/are-we-there-yet-wednesday-links.html&#34;&gt;commenting on voter turnout&lt;/a&gt; today, &lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt; complained about use of the term “unaffiliated” to describe voters who don’t register as Republicans or Democrats:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Do you get the feeling that Boards of Election went out of their way to give a more passive word like “unaffiliated” as opposed to the affirmative stance of “independent”?  Reminds me of an &lt;a href=&#34;http://orwell.ru/library/essays/politics/english/e_polit&#34;&gt;Orwell essay&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I’ll mildly disagree with HCR on this point.  I don’t think “unaffiliated” is that bad an example of bureaucratic language, and it’s certainly not an Orwellian euphemism on the scale of, say, referring to “taxes” as “revenue enhancers.”  It has the advantage of being precise, and of not claiming more than the evidence warrants: These are simply voters who have chosen not to be affiliated with a political party, no more, no less.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the course of <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/are-we-there-yet-wednesday-links.html">commenting on voter turnout</a> today, <em>HoCo Rising</em> complained about use of the term “unaffiliated” to describe voters who don’t register as Republicans or Democrats:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Do you get the feeling that Boards of Election went out of their way to give a more passive word like “unaffiliated” as opposed to the affirmative stance of “independent”?  Reminds me of an <a href="http://orwell.ru/library/essays/politics/english/e_polit">Orwell essay</a>.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I’ll mildly disagree with HCR on this point.  I don’t think “unaffiliated” is that bad an example of bureaucratic language, and it’s certainly not an Orwellian euphemism on the scale of, say, referring to “taxes” as “revenue enhancers.”  It has the advantage of being precise, and of not claiming more than the evidence warrants: These are simply voters who have chosen not to be affiliated with a political party, no more, no less.</p>
<p>The problem with taking an “affirmative stance” and calling these people “independents” is that it claims more than it should.  The word “independent” has positive connotations in the context of US history (the Declaration of Independence and all that), so calling these voters “independent” causes us to think of them as being somehow special in the context of present-day US politics.  Other positive connotations of the word “independent” (e.g., as in “independent thinker”) also lead us to believe that these voters act in a way that is qualitatively different and in some sense better than party members, for example, evaluating and voting for the best candidates without much consideration of their parties.</p>
<p>However as I’ve <a href="/2010/10/03/how-independent-are-howard-county-independents/">previously written</a> (and will keep repeating until someone provides a convincing argument to the contrary), the available evidence seems to suggest that most “independent” voters are simply closet Republicans or Democrats who for whatever reason don’t want to declare a formal affiliation with either of these parties.  In addition, those people who are truly “independent,” i.e., have no real party preference, are typically less politically engaged than the “leaners” and turn out at lower rates.  They’re essentially “independent” because they don’t care all that much about who gets elected.</p>
<p>So the bottom line is that in my opinion use of the word “independent” in a US political context promotes sloppy thinking, and it’s better to use a word like “unaffiliated” to help prevent sloppy thinking.</p>
<p>Two more points: First, in my opinion the correct terminology is really “unaffiliated and other,” since there are in fact other political parties than the Democratic and Republican parties, though the deck is stacked against them given the current structure of the US political system.  However the <a href="http://www.lp.org/introduction/what-is-the-libertarian-party">Libertarian Party</a> and <a href="http://www.gp.org/">Green Party</a> in particular have been able to maintain national and state party structures, field candidates at all levels, and even get them elected in some cases.  (At present the Libertarian Party has no <a href="http://www.lp.org/candidates/elected-officials">elected office-holders</a> in Maryland, while the Green Party has a <a href="http://www.gp.org/elections/officeholders/index.php">handful</a> at the local level.)</p>
<p>Finally, it’s an interesting footnote in Maryland political history (which I discovered while researching Maryland turnout statistics and looking at the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2008/turnout/general/2008_Presidential_General_Statewide.html">report for 2008</a>) that in fact there is (or at least was) a <a href="http://marylandindependentparty.org/">Maryland Independent Party</a> that managed to attract a fair number of registered voters who thought they were declaring themselves as “independents.”  It was unceremoniously dispatched to that big voting booth in the sky just a few months ago; for the complete (and quite entertaining) story see the Frederick News-Post article “<a href="http://www.fredericknewspost.com/sections/news/display.htm?storyid=106538">State elections board dissolves Independent Party</a>.”</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="a90e3da4-003">HoCoRising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-10-28 00:30</h4>
<p>I&rsquo;m starting to wonder about your sense of humor, Frank.</p>
<h4 id="a90e3da4-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-28 01:20</h4>
<p>Sorry, I&rsquo;m on a crusade about this &ldquo;independents&rdquo; thing. You&rsquo;ll just have to bear with me until my zeal burns out.</p>
<h4 id="a90e3da4-004">HoCoRising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-10-28 01:42</h4>
<p>But what is so different between being Un-affiliated and independent of any party? If you were affiliated, that is an affirmative term. Independent is an affirmative term. Unaffiliated is negative. It&rsquo;s all semantics, but in this context, I think the politics of the English language absolutely comes in to play, intentionally or not. (Ask most &ldquo;unaffiliateds&rdquo; and they will say they are &ldquo;independent&rdquo;)</p>
<h4 id="a90e3da4-006"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-28 02:44</h4>
<p>Good points. (I did say my disagreement was mild.) I think it&rsquo;s really matter of perspective and motivation: Are people turning away from formal party membership out of disgust (negative action)? Unaffiliating as a way to stake out a personal political space for themselves apart from the main parties (positive action)? And so on. For what it&rsquo;s worth, if the US had more major parties than the &ldquo;big two&rdquo; I think the unaffiliated/independent set of voters would be smaller. But I think the possibility of that happening is slim.</p>
<h4 id="a90e3da4-005"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-10-28 04:17</h4>
<p>brilliant distinction between &ldquo;independent&rdquo; and &ldquo;unafilliated,&rdquo; mr hecker</p>
<h4 id="a90e3da4-001">HoCoRising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-10-28 11:02</h4>
<p>But at the end of the day, the word is invoked with regard to &ldquo;party identification&rdquo; not &ldquo;what the government recognizes you to believe&rdquo;. If someone identifies themselves as independent, then that&rsquo;s what they are. Unless we are going to start pumping out some regulations on this topic&hellip;which would be horrible.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Maryland likely voters in the 2010 general election</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/26/maryland-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 26 Oct 2010 03:32:24 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/26/maryland-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/our-birds-heads-are-falling-off.html&#34;&gt;&lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt; recently highlighted&lt;/a&gt; a &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-governor-polla-20101023,0,4775019,full.story&#34;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt; poll&lt;/a&gt; showing Martin O’Malley 14 points ahead of Robert Ehrlich in the Maryland gubernatorial race (52% vs. 38%), and (among other things) pointed to a &lt;a href=&#34;http://redmaryland.blogspot.com/2010/10/bullt.html&#34;&gt;post at &lt;em&gt;Red Maryland&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt; questioning the assumptions of the poll:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What were the demographics of the poll? . . .  The story says that turnout patterns were “averaged over the last four Maryland general elections.”  Well, which general elections? The last four in total (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008) or the last four statewide off-year elections? (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006)?  . . .  And what defines a “higher-than-average Republican turnout this year?” What were the determining factors in determining that “estimated” higher Republican turnout, and did the pollster take into account the lower Democratic and higher Republican primary turnouts last month?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/our-birds-heads-are-falling-off.html"><em>HoCo Rising</em> recently highlighted</a> a <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-md-governor-polla-20101023,0,4775019,full.story"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> poll</a> showing Martin O’Malley 14 points ahead of Robert Ehrlich in the Maryland gubernatorial race (52% vs. 38%), and (among other things) pointed to a <a href="http://redmaryland.blogspot.com/2010/10/bullt.html">post at <em>Red Maryland</em></a> questioning the assumptions of the poll:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>What were the demographics of the poll? . . .  The story says that turnout patterns were “averaged over the last four Maryland general elections.”  Well, which general elections? The last four in total (2002, 2004, 2006, 2008) or the last four statewide off-year elections? (1994, 1998, 2002, 2006)?  . . .  And what defines a “higher-than-average Republican turnout this year?” What were the determining factors in determining that “estimated” higher Republican turnout, and did the pollster take into account the lower Democratic and higher Republican primary turnouts last month?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I recently addressed similar questions in the context of a local Howard County poll, and tried to estimate the party breakdown of <a href="/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">likely voters in Howard County</a> in the upcoming general election.  Since I now have a (not very sophisticated) methodology to estimate the likely share of turnout from Democrats, Republicans, and others, I couldn’t resist trying it in the context of a statewide poll.</p>
<p>But first a brief review of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> poll: The poll was of 798 voters with a stated margin of error of 3.5 points.  (Those of you who read my <a href="/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/">prior</a> <a href="/2010/10/09/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-2/">posts</a> on calculating margins of error will recall that this is the margin of error for a candidate polling at or near 50%, like O’Malley; the margin of error on Ehrlich’s result is very slightly lower.)  So assuming that this poll accurately reflects likely voters (which is a point of contention, of course), chances are 95% that Ehrlich’s true level of support is between 34.5 and 41.5%, and that O’Malley’s support is between 48.5% and 55.5%.  There would be only a 2.5% chance that Ehrlich’s support is higher than 41.5%, or that O’Malley’s is lower than 48.5%.</p>
<p>Now to address Red Maryland’s questions: One major point of contention is the assumption in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> poll that Republicans will be only 30% of the voting population.  This contrasts with a recent <a href="http://www.marylandreporter.com/omalley-leads-ehrlich-in-poll.aspx">Gonzales poll</a> which had O’Malley up by 5 points.  As explained in a <a href="http://www.marylandreporter.com/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=1042&amp;ver=4">supplementary document</a> (and, incidentally, full props to Gonzales for providing this) the Gonzales poll methodology assumed a voting population composed of 55% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 12% independents, based on extrapolation from past turnout in the 2006 general election and 2010 primaries.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>How does my method compare to the assumption in these two polls.  The simplest approach, and the one I’ll adopt in this post, is to extrapolate turnout from that in past general elections. (Incorporating turnout data from primaries is more complicated, and I haven’t yet had time to put together a full data set.  Based on my analysis of the Howard County data I’m also not yet convinced that primary turnout is that good a predictor of general election turnout.)</p>
<p>With that in mind I used various Maryland State Board of Elections reports to put together turnout statistics for general elections in Maryland from 1988 through 2008.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  (For those of you who want to try your own hand at this, the data is available as a <a href="https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoeAIApSILw_dFM4azc1MVFMWTh2NU1EVUhTaWxJVlE&amp;hl=en">Google spreadsheet</a>, an <a href="/public/maryland-general-election-turnout.xls">Excel file</a>, or a <a href="/public/maryland-general-election-turnout.txt">text file</a> suitable for loading into the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/">R statistical package</a>).</p>
<p>The table below shows the relative proportion by party of voters in past general elections in Maryland.  For example, the Democratic figure of 63.45% in 1988 indicates that in that year 63.45% of all people voting in the general election were registered Democrats.  Note that this is <em>not</em> the same as the Democratic turnout, i.e., the percentage of registered Democrats who voted; for 1988 that figure was 74.77%.</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Year</th>
          <th>% of Voters (D)</th>
          <th>% of Voters (R)</th>
          <th>% of Voters (Other)</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1988</td>
          <td>63.45</td>
          <td>28.78</td>
          <td>7.82</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1990</td>
          <td>64.80</td>
          <td>29.10</td>
          <td>6.10</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1992</td>
          <td>61.40</td>
          <td>29.59</td>
          <td>9.01</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1994</td>
          <td>61.21</td>
          <td>31.40</td>
          <td>7.39</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1996</td>
          <td>58.88</td>
          <td>31.49</td>
          <td>9.62</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1998</td>
          <td>60.06</td>
          <td>31.27</td>
          <td>8.66</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2000</td>
          <td>58.18</td>
          <td>30.67</td>
          <td>11.15</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2002</td>
          <td>57.06</td>
          <td>32.72</td>
          <td>10.22</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2004</td>
          <td>55.96</td>
          <td>30.62</td>
          <td>13.41</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2006</td>
          <td>56.81</td>
          <td>31.55</td>
          <td>11.64</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2008</td>
          <td>58.20</td>
          <td>27.53</td>
          <td>14.27</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>Note that (as mentioned in the <em>Red Maryland</em> quote above) elections in presidential election years show a different pattern that turnout in gubernatorial election years; this is most apparent in the figures for independents, who consistently make up a larger portion of the electorate in presidential years.  Therefore I think we should ignore the presidential election figures and focus on the figures for the past five gubernatorial general elections (1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006).</p>
<p>In looking at those years, the thing that stands out the most is that the percentage of all voters who are “independent” (i.e., unaffiliated or belonging to smaller parties) shows an almost perfectly linear trend over time.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup>  I’ve <a href="/2010/10/20/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election-contd/">previously hypothesized</a> that this is due to the number of registered unaffiliated voters growing linearly over time, to <a href="/2010/10/03/how-independent-are-howard-county-independents/">unaffiliated voters actually being “leaners”</a> to one party or another, and to turnout differences between unaffliated Democratic and Republican leaners balancing each other out to produce a consistently growing turnout for unaffiliated voters overall.</p>
<p>In any case, I think we could do a lot worse than just doing a simple linear regression on the percentage of independent voters making up the electorate in the five previous gubernatorial general elections.  Such a regression produces an estimate of 13% for the number of unaffiliated and other voters voting in the 2010 general elections.<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>That estimate then leaves 87% of the voting population to apportion between Democrats and Republicans.  Doing a linear regression on the shares of Democrats voting in the last five gubernatorial general elections (which also shows a pretty good linear trend, this time in the downward direction) gives an estimate of 54% Democrats for the 2010 general election, with Republicans then composing the remaining 33% of the electorate.<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup></p>
<p>Note that these estimates are pretty close to the Gonzales estimates: I’m estimating independent turnout one point higher (13% vs. 12%), Democratic turnout one point lower (54% vs. 55%), and Republican turnout the same (at 33%).  Also, the 33% I’m estimating for Republicans is 3 points higher than the 30% assumption used in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> poll.</p>
<p>So the bottom line is that I think the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> poll was indeed somewhat biased against Ehrlich in its assumptions.  However whether Ehrlich is really within shouting distance of O’Malley is an open question.  One interesting fact is that the Baltimore poll showed a majority of independents going for O’Malley and only 37% for Ehrlich.  Polling within the group of unaffiliated and other voters would presumably not be affected by the assumptions in the <em>Sun</em> poll made re Republican vs. Democratic turnout, and that breakdown is consistent with my hypothesis that the preferences of “independent” voters to a large extent mirror the overall breakdown between voters affiliated with the two major parties.</p>
<p>We’ll have to wait and see how the election really turns out, and whose estimates on turnout end up being most accurate.  In the meantime please feel free to play around with the turnout data using your own techniques.</p>
<p>UPDATE: I had meant to mention, but neglected to, that the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> recently published a <a href="http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/opinion/2010/10/omalley_by_14_really.html">Second Opinion post</a> discussing the demographic assumptions in the <em>Sun</em> poll and the Gonzales poll.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="d5adc2c6-002"><a href="http://www.reddish2010.com" title="email@reddish2010.com">Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court</a> - 2010-10-26 15:52</h4>
<p>Frank, Thank you so much for going this deep. I think, however, that you and Gonzales might share the same flaw in your analyses. You aren&rsquo;t accounting for the dramatic uptick in Democratic and Independent registration since 2006, and the stagnation of Republican registration. In Howard County, I believe the numbers are +11K Dems, +14K Ind and +110 GOP. Logically, shouldn&rsquo;t those increases dilute the GOP overall electorate proportion? I guess another way of putting it is that the number you need is not the percentage of the electorate in each year that identified with a specific party, but rather the percentage turnout WITHIN a party in each of those years. That could then be re-translated into a raw number given the new composition of the registered voters.</p>
<h4 id="d5adc2c6-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-26 16:19</h4>
<p>Jason, thanks for the comment. If I have time tonight I&rsquo;ll do a quick analysis of registration numbers for Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated and other voters. I have the data for 1988 through 2008, and just need to add the 2010 numbers. However note as I said before I don&rsquo;t think the independents are really independent. I suspect the +14K Ind number you quote for Howard County actually contains a fair fraction of Republican leaners who didn&rsquo;t care to register as Republicans.</p>
<h4 id="d5adc2c6-003"><a href="http://www.reddish2010.com" title="email@reddish2010.com">Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court</a> - 2010-10-26 16:48</h4>
<p>I agree that the unaffiliated figure votes Republican for the most part. That third bucket makes the prognosticating tougher. However, if you want to predict the composition of the electorate by party affiliation, understanding that party affiliation and actual voting behavior are not always the same thing, I think the raw number of voters needs to be considered in addition to percentage trends. I wish I had the time right now to dig into this with you and HCR. You guys have added a great layer of analysis that wouldn&rsquo;t be fit for newspaper exposition.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>It’s worth noting though that even the Gonzales supplement doesn’t provide a full explanation of the model underlying the turnout estimates.  For example, how exactly did Gonzales calculate that Democratic turnout would go down 7% in 2010, as opposed to 6% or 8% or some other number?&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>For the general election turnout I used reports from the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/">Maryland State Board of Elections</a> for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1988/turnout_1988/general_statewide.html">1988</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1990/turnout_1990/general_statewide.html">1990</a>, 1992 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_alliance.html">Alliance</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1994/turnout_1994/general_statewide.html">1994</a>, 1996 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_reformparty.html">Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_naturallaw.html">Natural-Law</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_taxpayer.html">Taxpayers</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1998/turnout_1998/general_statewide.html">1998</a>, 2000 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_reformparty.html">Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_green.html">Green</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_constitution.html">Constitution</a> parties and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_decline.html">unaffliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2002/turnout/g_statewide.html">2002</a>, 2004 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/general/turnout/turnout1.html">all voters</a> and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/general/turnout/turnout2.html">broken down by party</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2006/turnout/general/county_wide.html">2006</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2008/turnout/general/2008_Presidential_General_Statewide.html">2008</a>.</p>
<p>Note that the 1994 turnout report on the Maryland State Board of Elections website contains a major error: the Allegany County figures for Republican registered voters and Republican turnout were omitted from the statewide totals for registered voters and turnout.  I have added these figures (17,375 and 11,715 respectively) back into the statewide total in my own spreadsheet.  There are also smaller discrepancies for turnout in 1988, for registered voters and turnout in 1996, and registered voters in 2004; see columns U and V of the spreadsheet.  I’ll investigate and fix these as I have time.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>More specifically, using the R-compatible text file for general election turnout linked to above, and using only the lines corresponding to gubernatorial elections, I constructed a linear model <code>lm(PctVotersOther ~ Year)</code>.  This model has a slope of 0.34475, intercept of -686.00250, and R-squared of 0.9984 (1.0 indicating a perfect linear trend).&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>The estimate can be computed as 0.34775*2010 - 686.00250, or if you want to get fancy you can do <code>predict(lmo, newdata=data.frame(Year=2010))</code> where <code>lmo</code> is the linear model described above.  In either case the estimate is 12.975.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>The linear model <code>lm(PctVotersD ~ Year)</code> has a slope of -0.50325, intercept of 1065.48150, and R-squared of 0.9353.  The estimate for 2010 is then -0.50325*2010 + 1065.48150 or 53.949.&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County bloggers have fun times at Kloby’s Smokehouse</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/21/howard-county-bloggers-have-fun-times-at-klobys-smokehouse/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 21 Oct 2010 22:56:51 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/21/howard-county-bloggers-have-fun-times-at-klobys-smokehouse/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I’m not in any shape to blog anything that requires concentrated thought, but I didn’t want to let the night pass without noting that I had a great time at the &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocoblogs-klobys-smokehouse.eventbrite.com/&#34;&gt;HoCo blogger (and blog reader) meetup&lt;/a&gt; at &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.klobysbbq.com/&#34;&gt;Kloby’s Smokehouse&lt;/a&gt; tonight.  Due to work and family commitments I don’t often get a chance to go out to local events, and to be honest I’m not so politically obsessed that I find attending a &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/hoco-chamber-forum-some-thoughts.html&#34;&gt;local candidate forum&lt;/a&gt; to be my idea of a good time.  So it was good to be someplace where I could meet the people who’ve been reading my blog and meet other bloggers whom I follow, and where a conversation about local restaurants was as on point as a discussion of local politics.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m not in any shape to blog anything that requires concentrated thought, but I didn’t want to let the night pass without noting that I had a great time at the <a href="http://hocoblogs-klobys-smokehouse.eventbrite.com/">HoCo blogger (and blog reader) meetup</a> at <a href="http://www.klobysbbq.com/">Kloby’s Smokehouse</a> tonight.  Due to work and family commitments I don’t often get a chance to go out to local events, and to be honest I’m not so politically obsessed that I find attending a <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/hoco-chamber-forum-some-thoughts.html">local candidate forum</a> to be my idea of a good time.  So it was good to be someplace where I could meet the people who’ve been reading my blog and meet other bloggers whom I follow, and where a conversation about local restaurants was as on point as a discussion of local politics.</p>
<p>Some other points: First, this marked the public unveiling of Trevor’s new <a href="http://hocopolitico.blogspot.com/">HoCo Politico blog</a>.  For the most part I don’t occupy the same regions of politicospace as Trevor, but I’ve enjoyed reading his guest posts at <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/">HoCo Rising</a>, and I will be following him at his new venue.  I recommend you do likewise.</p>
<p>Second, I’m by no means a cheerleader for blogging, new media, etc., but I wanted to make a belated comment on <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/10/problem-with-bloggers.html">Wordbones’s post</a> relaying Mona Brinegar’s complaints about HoCo bloggers supposedly dominating the conversation about local affairs, offering one-sided arguments, and in general being a bad influenceTM.  For goodness sake people, if you think local bloggers are presenting one-sided views of the world, start your own blog and present your side of the story.  Don’t post sniping comments on other people’s blogs, or complain in emails to a listserv.  It’s the Internet, folks, you don’t need an Internet drivers license to get on the information superhighway.</p>
<p>Not to pick at these two scabs once more, but I still don’t understand why proponents of the <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/Howard-County-Taxpayer-Protection-Initiative/131239316905886">Taxpayer’s Protection Initiative</a> and opponents of <a href="http://www.columbia-md.com/">downtown Columbia redevelopment</a> didn’t make their respective cases more aggressively through blogs and related means.  Proactive arguments in a venue you control are always more effective than reactive comments made on your “enemy’s” turf.</p>
<p>Finally, thanks to <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/">JessieX</a> for promoting the event and <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/">Mr HowChow</a> and <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/">HoCo Rising</a> for co-hosting it.  I was afraid that the expanded attendee list and the presence of <a href="http://www.ballinger4boe.com/">various</a> <a href="http://www.electschrader.com/">local</a> <a href="http://www.electjeffrobinson.com/">politicos</a> and a phalanx of <a href="http://www.hocomojo.com/">hyperlocal</a> <a href="http://columbia.patch.com/">media</a> <a href="http://ellicottcity.patch.com/">types</a> might suck the spontaneity and fun out of the proceedings, but my fears proved unfounded.  All in all it was a fun event, and I’m looking forward to the next one.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="b385633a-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-10-22 04:34</h4>
<p>Love it: &ldquo;It’s the Internet, folks, you don’t need an Internet drivers license to get on the information superhighway.&rdquo; Great point, Frank. :-) Good to see you tonight. I, too, was a bit concerned about opening up the event to &ldquo;blog readers&rdquo; and initially attempted to keep the number of those tickets at a lower level, but they kept coming in and I decided to go with it and even expand the tickets available. I thought it was a lovely event, and the mix of people from the expanded attendee list made for a more vibrant evening, I do believe. Did you see the Twitter stream aggregation I made using storify.com? It&rsquo;s here: <a href="http://bit.ly/8YJWXX">http://bit.ly/8YJWXX</a></p>
<h4 id="b385633a-002">cmb (busch.cm@gmail.com) - 2010-10-22 14:25</h4>
<p>&ldquo;I still don’t understand why proponents of the Taxpayer’s Protection Initiative and opponents of downtown Columbia redevelopment didn’t make their respective cases more aggressively through blogs and related means.&rdquo; Actually, it makes sense that those opposed to change don&rsquo;t use new media to make their case to supporters who probably don&rsquo;t read blogs. Get with the times folks!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County likely voters in the 2010 general election, contd.</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/20/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election-contd/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 20 Oct 2010 23:53:32 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/20/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election-contd/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I made some projections about the likely percentages of Democratic, Republican, and unaffiliated and other voters in the upcoming general election, projections that I thought were reasonably well supported by the evidence.  In this post I wanted to publish more data for anyone who’s interested, and also explore a little further a topic that I touched on in the last post.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, the data.  From various Maryland State Board of Elections reports&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt; I’ve collected together two related data sets, one of which I discussed in the last post and one that’s new:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my <a href="/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/">previous post</a> I made some projections about the likely percentages of Democratic, Republican, and unaffiliated and other voters in the upcoming general election, projections that I thought were reasonably well supported by the evidence.  In this post I wanted to publish more data for anyone who’s interested, and also explore a little further a topic that I touched on in the last post.</p>
<p>First, the data.  From various Maryland State Board of Elections reports<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> I’ve collected together two related data sets, one of which I discussed in the last post and one that’s new:</p>
<ul>
<li>Turnout statistics for general elections in Howard County from 1988 through 2008 (available as a <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsbOfsoPgoYPdDdvVEZ4YldZclNMQTVwRmJhcjM0Snc&amp;hl=en">Google spreadsheet</a>, <a href="/public/howard-county-md-general-election-turnout.xls">Excel file</a>, or a <a href="/public/howard-county-md-general-election-turnout.txt">text file</a> suitable for loading into <a href="http://www.r-project.org/">R</a>).  Note that there’s one very minor problem with this data: In one of the years a total reported by the Maryland State Board of Elections for all parties and unaffiliated and other voters was off by 3 compared to the sum of the individual numbers for all parties and unaffiliated voters.  I made a correction to eliminate the discrepancy (adding three voters to the unaffiliated and other category), but unfortunately have now forgotten which year I made this correction for.  If I ever have time I’ll go back and track this down and restore the numbers to what was actually reported (which I think would have been the best course of action).</li>
<li>Turnout statistics for primary elections in Howard County from 1988 through 2008 (like the other results, available as a <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsbOfsoPgoYPdHVBbm1sS29RMTVaLTZkTGFsUk9JeWc&amp;hl=en">Google spreadsheet</a>, <a href="/public/howard-county-md-primary-election-turnout.xls">Excel file</a>, or R-compatible <a href="/public/howard-county-md-primary-election-turnout.txt">text file</a>).  Unfortunately this data set is missing data for 1996, a year in which the Maryland State Board of Elections apparently didn’t report turnout numbers for the primary.  Again, if I ever have time I’ll try to track down these numbers somewhere else.</li>
</ul>
<p>The open question has to do with the relative percentage of unaffiliated and other voters in recent elections.  (Incidentally, I use the term “unaffiliated and other”because it’s more accurate than “independent”; this group does include some people who belong to political parties, albeit small ones, and as <a href="/2010/10/03/how-independent-are-howard-county-independents/">I’ve previously written</a> there are good reasons for believing that unaffiliated voters actually have consistent partisan preferences.)</p>
<p>One of the things I found interesting is that the percentage of those voting in general elections who are unaffiliated has shown an almost perfectly linear upward trend over the years, closely matching the growth in the number of voters who register as unaffiliated.  By contrast the share of Republican and Democratic voters has fluctuated back and forth: in some elections Republicans form a relatively greater share of those voting, at the expense of the Democratic share, and sometimes the situation is reversed.</p>
<p>Presumably Democratic and Republican turnout (and hence relative share of those voting) is influenced by party members’ feelings about their party’s candidates on the ballot, their general level of enthusiasm about the election, and other factors.  Why don’t these factors likewise affect “independents” and cause their share of the voting population to fluctuate as much as Democrats and Republicans?</p>
<p>There are at least two possible answers I can think of.  First, it’s possible that any fluctuations in the share of unaffiliated and other voters are not that apparent because their share is much smaller than that of the two parties (about half that of Republicans, and just over a third that of Democrats), and also because fluctuations from election to election are masked by the strong secular growth in the number of unaffiliated and other voters.</p>
<p>The second possibility is more interesting: If most “independent” voters are actually closet partisans, then their propensity to turn out for a given election will likely mirror that of members of the particular party they prefer.  In other words, unaffiliated voters who lean Democratic will tend to turn out at the same rates as actual Democrats, and unaffiliated voters who lean Republican will tend to turn out at the same rate as Republicans.</p>
<p>Thus, for example, if Republicans were more enthusiastic than Democrats in a given election cycle and turned out in greater relative numbers, then Republican-leaning unaffiliated voters would turn out in greater relative numbers as well.  However the increased turnout on the part of those voters would be offset by decreased turnout on the part of unaffiliated voters who lean Democratic.  The result would then be that the overall reported share of all voters who were unaffiliated would remain relatively constant, while “under the covers” (so to speak) the actual composition of that group of voter (i.e., Republican leaners vs. Democratic leaners) would change from election to election.</p>
<p>It’s a nice hypothesis, but how to prove it?  I’m not really sure, in the absence of detailed data about the partisan preferences of unaffiliated voters.  However one suggestive piece of data is that turnout of unaffiliated and other voters is slightly more closely correlated with Democratic turnout than with Republican turnout.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  This is exactly what we’d expect to see if the partisan preferences of unaffiliated voters mirrors that of Howard County voters overall.</p>
<p>But of course “correlation is not causation,” as the saying goes, so for now this is just an interesting idea.  If anyone else is interested in this question feel free to take the data and do your own blog post.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="4661a8bd-005"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-10-21 11:08</h4>
<p>A post with footnotes! Be still my heart. I think your hypotheses are good ones, and it could even be both. They both sound reasonable, but you&rsquo;re right&ndash; how to prove it? Sometimes it&rsquo;s maddening what available data cannot tell us.</p>
<h4 id="4661a8bd-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-21 12:45</h4>
<p>Sarah, thanks for stopping by. On the footnote thing, based on a scientific education and my open source experience I strongly believe in the principle of &ldquo;showing your work&rdquo;. It helps me convince myself when I think I&rsquo;m right, and if I&rsquo;m wrong someone can spot my errors and I&rsquo;ll learn something in the process.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>For the general election turnout I used reports from the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/">Maryland State Board of Elections</a> for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1988/turnout_1988/general_statewide.html">1988</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1990/turnout_1990/general_statewide.html">1990</a>, 1992 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_alliance.html">Alliance</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1994/turnout_1994/general_statewide.html">1994</a>, 1996 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_reformparty.html">Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_naturallaw.html">Natural-Law</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_taxpayer.html">Taxpayers</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1998/turnout_1998/general_statewide.html">1998</a>, 2000 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_reformparty.html">Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_green.html">Green</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_constitution.html">Constitution</a> parties and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_decline.html">unaffliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2002/turnout/g_statewide.html">2002</a>, 2004 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/general/turnout/turnout1.html">all voters</a> and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/general/turnout/turnout2.html">broken down by party</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2006/turnout/general/county_wide.html">2006</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2008/turnout/general/2008_Presidential_General_Statewide.html">2008</a>.</p>
<p>For the primary turnout I used the Maryland Board of Elections primary election turnout reports for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1988/turnout_1988/primary_statewide.html">1988</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1990/turnout_1990/primary_statewide.html">1990</a>, 1992 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, for the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_alliance.html">Alliance</a> parties, and for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1994/turnout_1994/primary_statewide.html">1994</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1998/turnout_1998/primary_statewide.html">1998</a>, 2000 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/primary_statewide.html">all voters</a>, for the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/primary_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/primary_republican.html">Republican</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/primary_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/primary_decline.html">unaffliated voters</a>), 2002 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2002/turnout/p_statewide.html">all voters</a> and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2002/turnout/2002_primary_state_turnout_countywide_by_district_and_by_party.pdf">broken down by party</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/turnout/p_statewide.html">2004</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2006/turnout/primary/2006_Gubernatorial_Primary_Statewide.html">2006</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2008/turnout/primary/2008_Primary_Statewide.html">2008</a>.  Note that the Maryland Board of Elections web site does not include turnout figures for the 1996 primary election.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>Using the R-compatible text file for general election turnout linked to above, <code>cor(PctTurnoutD, PctTurnoutOther)</code> is 0.982 while <code>cor(PctTurnoutR, PctTurnoutOther)</code> is 0.939.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County likely voters in the 2010 general election</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/</link>
      <pubDate>Fri, 15 Oct 2010 02:55:05 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/15/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Previously I discussed the recent &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.marylandreporter.com/HoCo-exec-race-tightens-Ulman-v.-Kittleman.aspx&#34;&gt;Gonzales poll on the Howard County executive race&lt;/a&gt;, focusing on the poll’s margin of error (&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/09/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;).  As I noted in a comment, the margin of error was not really a controversial topic; other than having fun computing margins of error, the major reason I wrote the post was to note that the breakdowns by county council district had very high (and unreported) margins of error, and therefore probably didn’t have much more than entertainment value.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Previously I discussed the recent <a href="http://www.marylandreporter.com/HoCo-exec-race-tightens-Ulman-v.-Kittleman.aspx">Gonzales poll on the Howard County executive race</a>, focusing on the poll’s margin of error (<a href="/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2010/10/09/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-2/">part 2</a>).  As I noted in a comment, the margin of error was not really a controversial topic; other than having fun computing margins of error, the major reason I wrote the post was to note that the breakdowns by county council district had very high (and unreported) margins of error, and therefore probably didn’t have much more than entertainment value.</p>
<p>The more controversial aspect of the Gonzales poll was the assumed breakdown of likely voters by party:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Democrats were skeptical of the results, particularly because they are based on the premise of a turnout of 46% of Democrats&mdash;about 3 points lower than recent elections&mdash;and 40% for Republicans&mdash;at least 2 points or more higher than [the] usual GOP showing.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A separate <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/75685/ulman-kittleman-camps-see-bright-spots-polls/">poll conducted for Ken Ulman</a> by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (which had Ulman leading Trent Kittleman 57% to 32%) used a much different assumption on relative shares of the electorate, though it also tested the Gonzales assumption:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Yang poll sampled 50 percent registered Democrats, 33 percent registered Republicans and 17 percent unaffiliated voters.  . . .</p>
<p>Yang also presented his poll results using a sample of 46 percent Democrats, 40 percent Republicans and 14 percent independents.  In that grouping of the Yang poll, Ulman received 53 percent of the vote compare[d] to Kittleman’s 36 percent (11 percent still went to the undecided voters).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How likely are these assumptions? Beyond “gut feel” estimates about the relative proportions of Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated and other voters who will turn out in November, there are at least two general approaches to estimating the composition of the likely voter population.  The first is to look at the relationship between local trends and national trends, and project what will happen in Howard County based on national data.  The second is to look at local trends only, and that’s the approach I take in this post.  (I don’t have either the data or the time to look at national trends, so I’ll leave that to anyone else who might want to try their hand at it.)</p>
<p>The table below shows the relative proportion by party of voters in past general elections in Howard County, based on voter turnout figures maintained by the Maryland State Board of Elections.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup> For example, the Democratic figure of 52.64% in 1988 indicates that in that year 52.64% of all people voting in the general election were registered Democrats.  Note that this is <em>not</em> the same as the Democratic turnout, i.e., the percentage of registered Democrats who voted; for 1988 that figure was 83.81%.</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Year</th>
          <th>% of Voters (D)</th>
          <th>% of Voters (R)</th>
          <th>% of Voters (Other)</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1988</td>
          <td>52.64</td>
          <td>35.27</td>
          <td>12.10</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1990</td>
          <td>55.05</td>
          <td>35.56</td>
          <td>9.39</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1992</td>
          <td>50.16</td>
          <td>35.86</td>
          <td>13.98</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1994</td>
          <td>51.52</td>
          <td>37.53</td>
          <td>10.95</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1996</td>
          <td>49.60</td>
          <td>37.09</td>
          <td>13.31</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>1998</td>
          <td>50.44</td>
          <td>37.49</td>
          <td>12.07</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2000</td>
          <td>48.58</td>
          <td>36.54</td>
          <td>14.88</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2002</td>
          <td>48.34</td>
          <td>38.38</td>
          <td>13.28</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2004</td>
          <td>47.75</td>
          <td>35.37</td>
          <td>16.87</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2006</td>
          <td>49.48</td>
          <td>35.26</td>
          <td>15.27</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2008</td>
          <td>50.08</td>
          <td>31.73</td>
          <td>18.19</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>One way to estimate voter share in 2010 is simply to look at the historical results and guesstimate.  The following chart presents voter share by party in all of the general elections from 1988 through 2008 (from the above table), along with some added trend lines.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/hoco-general-all-electorate1.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/hoco-general-all-electorate1-embed.png"/> </a>
</figure>

<p>From the chart it appears that both the Democratic and Republican shares of those voting in Howard County general elections have been slowly declining (with Democratic share declining somewhat faster), and that the proportion of unaffiliated voters and others has been rising.  Looking at this chart I’d estimate that the proportion of Democratic voters in the 2010 election would be somewhere around 47&mdash;48%, Republican share would be around 35&mdash;36%, and unaffiliated and other voters around 17&mdash;18%.</p>
<p>We can make a more formal estimate by doing a <a href="http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/linreg.htm">linear regression</a> analysis, finding the lines that best fit the historical data and then projecting forward to 2010.  (Linear regression is the mathematical technique that enables us to create trend lines like those in the above chart.)  If we look at the data for all general elections, the estimated voter shares for 2010 are 47.5% Democratic, 35.0% Republican, and 17.3% unaffiliated and other.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>However these estimates have the obvious drawback that presidential election years (like 2008) show a different pattern of voter shares than gubernatorial election years (like 2006).  (For example, the relative proportion of unaffiliated and other voters is consistently higher in presidential election years.)  Therefore it may make sense to look only at the data for gubernatorial elections.  If we do a linear regression on that data then the estimated voter shares for 2010 are 46.7% Democratic, 36.9% Republican, and 16.3% unaffiliated and other.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>The most interesting point from the regression analysis is that the proportion of unaffiliated and other voters in gubernatorial elections is an almost perfectly linear upward trend over time.  (This is almost as true for the proportion of unaffiliated and other voters in presidential elections over time.)  For whatever reason there appears to be a strong and consistent trend for unaffiliated voters to constitute a larger and larger proportion of voters in general elections.</p>
<p>Thus I feel reasonably confident in projecting that unaffiliated and other voters will constitute somewhere between 16 and 17% of all voters this November.  Note that this estimate is consistent with the Yang poll (which had unaffiliated voters at 17% of the sample), but inconsistent with the Gonzales poll (for which unaffiliated voters were 14% of the sample).</p>
<p>On the other hand, the proportion of Republican voters in gubernatorial elections over time is not well-explained at all as a linear trend.  Instead at first glance the proportion of Republicans appears to be bouncing around randomly in the general range of 35 to 39%.  Given that, I find it somewhat implausible that the Republican share of voters this November would be as high as 40%, as assumed in the Gonzales poll.  I’m more confident with a projection of 37%, which is a bit higher than the average of 36.8% in gubernatorial elections and a bit lower than the 37.53% Republican share of all voters in the 1994 election.  Note that my projection of 37% is considerably higher than the 33% Republican share assumed in the Yang poll.</p>
<p>If I’m projecting a Republican share of 37% and an unaffiliated and other share of between 16 and 17%, that implies a projection of between 46 and 47% for the Democratic share of voters this November. This is a tad higher than the Gonzales assumption of 46% and significantly lower than the Yang assumption of 50%.</p>
<p>How might these proportions translate into actual votes for Ken Ulman vs. Trent Kittleman? I really don’t know how best to estimate that, and am not comfortable making a projection.  However I will note that per my earlier <a href="/2010/10/03/how-independent-are-howard-county-independents/">post on Howard County “independent” voters</a>, the projected 17% unaffiliated and other voters are almost certainly not all up for grabs.  Instead many if not most of them are simply weak partisans who don’t want to formally affiliate with their party of preference.  It’s therefore quite possible that unaffiliated voters will vote for Ulman and Kittleman in roughly the same proportions as one might expect from the Democratic and Republican shares of those voting on November 2.</p>
<p>UPDATE: For more on this general topic please see <a href="/2010/10/20/howard-county-likely-voters-in-the-2010-general-election-contd/">my follow-up post</a>.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>For the detailed figures see the <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsbOfsoPgoYPdDdvVEZ4YldZclNMQTVwRmJhcjM0Snc&amp;hl=en">general election turnout spreadsheet </a>I prepared.  I used figures from the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/">Maryland State Board of Elections</a> for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1988/turnout_1988/general_statewide.html">1988</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1990/turnout_1990/general_statewide.html">1990</a>, 1992 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_alliance.html">Alliance</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1992/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1994/turnout_1994/general_statewide.html">1994</a>, 1996 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_reformparty.html">Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_naturallaw.html">Natural-Law</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_taxpayer.html">Taxpayers</a> parties, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_decline.html">unaffiliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1998/turnout_1998/general_statewide.html">1998</a>, 2000 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide.html">all voters</a>, the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_democratic.html">Democratic</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_republican.html">Republican</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_libertarian.html">Libertarian</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/1996/turnout/general_reformparty.html">Reform</a>, <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_green.html">Green</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_constitution.html">Constitution</a> parties and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2000/turnout/general_statewide_decline.html">unaffliated voters</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2002/turnout/g_statewide.html">2002</a>, 2004 (for <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/general/turnout/turnout1.html">all voters</a> and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2004/general/turnout/turnout2.html">broken down by party</a>), <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2006/turnout/general/county_wide.html">2006</a>, and <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2008/turnout/general/2008_Presidential_General_Statewide.html">2008</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>I did the linear regression analysis in the <a href="http://www.r-project.org/">R environment</a> using the lm() function.  Using all data the best fit line for the Democratic voter share data had slope -0.2259 and intercept 501.6065 (with R-squared of 0.5094), the best fit line for the Republican data had slope -0.08736 and intercept 210.55982 (with R-squared of 0.1062), and for the unaffiliated and other data had slope  0.3130 and intercept -611.8021 (with R-squared of 0.6552).&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>Using only the data for gubernatorial general election years, the best fit line for the Democratic voter share data had slope -0.358 and intercept 766.250 (with R-squared of 0.7777), the best fit line for the Republican data had slope -0.00625 and intercept 24.35650 (with R-squared of 0.000844), and for the unaffiliated and other data had slope 0.3522 and intercept -691.6035 (with R-squared of 0.9894).&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Margins of error in Howard County polling, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/09/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 09 Oct 2010 18:00:06 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/09/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1 of this post&lt;/a&gt; I discussed how to calculate the margin of error on polling results, using as an example the recent &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.marylandreporter.com/HoCo-exec-race-tightens-Ulman-v.-Kittleman.aspx&#34;&gt;Gonzales poll on the Howard County executive race&lt;/a&gt;.  In this post I’ll finish up the discussion with some other bits of information relating to margins of error.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;(Incidentally, I don’t mean to focus on margin of error to the exclusion of other issues.  As wildelakemike noted in a comment to the previous post, “Polling is as much of an art as it is a science.  A good pollster will set the parameters for the sample of voters to be tested based on what the pollster believes will be important in any given election.” One of the most important parameters for a political poll is how the pollster selects that subset of registered voters who are most likely to vote; indeed this has become a point of contention in relation to the Gonzales poll.  I decided to look at margin of error first not because it’s the most important issue with this poll, but rather because it was something I once knew how to calculate and wanted to learn again, and also because I was curious about the margin of error on the council district breakdowns.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/">part 1 of this post</a> I discussed how to calculate the margin of error on polling results, using as an example the recent <a href="http://www.marylandreporter.com/HoCo-exec-race-tightens-Ulman-v.-Kittleman.aspx">Gonzales poll on the Howard County executive race</a>.  In this post I’ll finish up the discussion with some other bits of information relating to margins of error.</p>
<p>(Incidentally, I don’t mean to focus on margin of error to the exclusion of other issues.  As wildelakemike noted in a comment to the previous post, “Polling is as much of an art as it is a science.  A good pollster will set the parameters for the sample of voters to be tested based on what the pollster believes will be important in any given election.” One of the most important parameters for a political poll is how the pollster selects that subset of registered voters who are most likely to vote; indeed this has become a point of contention in relation to the Gonzales poll.  I decided to look at margin of error first not because it’s the most important issue with this poll, but rather because it was something I once knew how to calculate and wanted to learn again, and also because I was curious about the margin of error on the council district breakdowns.)</p>
<p>I was easy on all of you the last post and let you try doing some mathematics without using any mathematical notation.  (This is somewhat analogous to learning a song without knowing how to read music.)  Now that you’re hopefully able to do the calculations for the margin of error, here’s the actual formula behind the calculations:</p>
<p>margin of error (at 95% confidence level) = $latex 1.96 \cdot \sqrt{p(1-p)/n}$</p>
<p>(For you verbal types out there: This is just a restatement of the calculation we did in the last post: Multiply p times (1-p), divide by n, take the square root of the resulting value&mdash;the square root sign √ is the same one I had you find on your calculator&mdash;and then multiply that value by 1.96.)</p>
<p>Here n is the sample size and p and (1-p) are the percentages of people in the sample responding yes and no respectively to a particular question (e.g., “will you vote for Ken Ulman”), with each percentage converted to a number between 0 and 1.  As previously discussed, we multiply p and (1-p), divide by the sample size, take the square root, and then multiple by 1.96 to get the margin of error.  In the formula above the margin of error is expressed as a number between 0 and 1; you can then multiply it by 100 if you’d like to see it as a percentage.  ~~~(Or if you’d like, you can just keep p and (1-p) as percentages, in which case the answer will automatically be expressed as a percentage; I didn’t realize this until after I wrote the previous post.)~~~</p>
<p>The formula for margin of error has several interesting properties and implications:</p>
<p>First, the margin of error depends on the sample size: the larger the sample size, the smaller the margin of error.  Since we divide by the sample size, increasing the sample size means that we’re taking the square root of a smaller number, which is in turn produces a smaller value for the margin of error.  (I’ll spare you the proof of this last statement.)  However note that in order to reduce the margin of error by a factor of 2 we have to increase the sample size by a factor of 4.  This is because of the presence of the square root: Increasing the sample size by a factor of 4 corresponds to multiplying the quantity inside the square root sign by $latex \frac{1}{4}$.  But the square root of $latex \frac{1}{4}$ is $latex \frac{1}{2}$(since $latex \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{4}$) so by making the sample size four times larger we end up making the margin of error only half what it was.</p>
<p>This result makes reducing the margin of error in a poll more expensive than we might expect.  For example, the Gonzales poll in our example had a sample size of 381 and a reported margin of error of 5%.  (We’ll verify that margin of error below, incidentally.)  Suppose the people who commissioned the poll wanted the poll to have a margin of error of 2.5% instead.  Unfortunately that would increase the sample size needed from 381 people to four times that, or 1,524 people, and that would in turn make doing the polling more expensive.</p>
<p>(The flip side of this is that reducing the sample size doesn’t increase the margin of error by as much as you might think.  In my example in the previous post discussing the Council District 1 results, the sample size was reduced by factor of four to five, from 381 to 82, while the margin of error a little more than doubled.)</p>
<p>The second thing to note is that the margin of error depends only on the sample size; it does <em>not</em> depend on the size of the original population from which the sample was drawn.  (Technically <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error#Effect_of_population_size">this is true only if the population is sufficiently large</a> compared to the sample size; however that’s the case for this and other polls at the Howard County level and above.)  In other words, just as a sample size of 381 produced a margin of error of 5% for a Howard County poll, a sample size of 381 would produce a margin of error of 5% for a nationwide poll, even though the population of the United States is about a thousand times larger.  This in turn means that (all other things being equal) conducting a national poll should cost roughly the same as conducting a Howard County-specific poll with the same margin of error, and vice versa.  But of course there are lot more people interested in national polls than there are people interested in Howard County polls, which presumably accounts for why we don’t see a lot of Howard County poll results published.</p>
<p>Next, recall that we compute a margin of error for a particular poll result, and two results within the same poll can have different margins of error.  (For example, from the Gonzales results for Council District 2 we computed a margin of error of 12.2% for Ken Ulman’s result and 11.2% for Trent Kittleman’s.)  This occurs because the product p times (1-p) above will vary depending on the value of p.  It turns out that the product p times (1-p) (and thus the margin of error) will be largest when p = 0.5, corresponding to a polling result of 50%.</p>
<p>(Proving this statement is quite easy for anyone who remembers some high school algebra.  Here’s a hint: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Without_loss_of_generality">Without loss of generality</a> assume that p is between 0 and 0.5, and let x be the difference between p and 0.5, so that p = 0.5-x.  Express (1-p) in terms of x as well, and then compute p times (1-p) to produce an expression involving only x.  The resulting expression will be easily seen to have its maximum value when x is zero, i.e., p is 0.5.)</p>
<p>Because the calculated margin of error is highest when a poll result is 50%, that’s the figure that pollsters publish as the reported margin of error.  For example, assume a sample size of 381, same as in the Gonzales poll, and assume that 50% of the voters in that poll responded that they would vote for Ken Ulman.  The margin of error according to the above formula would then be $latex 1.96 \cdot \sqrt{0.5 \cdot 0.5 / 381}$, which equals 0.0502 or 5.02%&mdash;thus the reported 5% margin of error.</p>
<p>However suppose that in our hypothetical poll 90% of voters said they would vote for Ken Ulman.  The calculated margin of error for that result would be $latex 1.96 \cdot \sqrt{0.9 \cdot 0.1 / 381}$, which equals 0.0301 or 3.01%.  This is another result that makes polling somewhat harder than we might expect: It’s exactly when a race is tight and both candidates have support near 50% that the margin of error is greatest.  On the other hand, if a poll shows a very lopsided result then the margin of error will be smaller and we can have more confidence in the results.  (This assumes, again, that the people polled are properly chosen to represent a random sample of the population of interest.)</p>
<p>Finally, what about the constant value 1.96 that we use to multiply the square root?  It was chosen to provide the margin of error with 95% confidence (in other words, that there’s a 95% chance that the true value of a candidate’s support is within the poll results plus or minus the margin of error).  If you want a higher degree of confidence you can use a larger constant as a multiplier, and if you can accept a lower degree of confidence then you can use a smaller constant.</p>
<p>For example, if you want the calculated margin of error to apply with 99% confidence, you should use 2.58 as the multiplier instead of 1.96; for the Gonzales poll the (maximum) margin of error at the 99% confidence level is 6.6% (as opposed to 5% at the 95% confidence level).  Similarly, if you want the calculated margin of error to apply with 90% confidence, you should use 1.64; for the Gonzales poll the associated (maximum) margin of error is 4.2% at the 90% confidence level.</p>
<p>There are some more things that could be said about margin of error, but this is a good stopping point.  Perhaps in future I’ll post about other aspects of political polling, but I’ll try to go light on the mathematics till then.</p>
<p>UPDATE: I especially should avoid including mathematics if I can’t get the formulas right.  Contrary to what I implied above, if you want to work in percentages only, and not convert to probabilities (values between 0 and 1), then the formula to use is as follows:</p>
<p>margin of error (at 95% confidence level) = $latex 1.96 \cdot \sqrt{p(100-p)/n}$</p>
<p>Here p is the original percentage value taken directly from the poll, and the result is expressed as a percentage.</p>
<p>I should also note that if you just want to know the maximum margin of error then you can set p = 50%, and the above formula simplifies to the following:</p>
<p>max.  margin of error (at 95% confidence level) = $latex 98 / \sqrt{n}$</p>
<p>Again, the result is expressed as a percentage.  Deriving the second formula from the first is left as an exercise for the reader.</p>
<p>UPDATE 2: I added a bit more explanation to the initial math formula above to make it clear that it is just a restatement in formal notation of a calculation we’d already done.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="aa3252e6-001">Truemoderate (balic4567@yahoo.com) - 2010-10-11 15:21</h4>
<p>My head hurts a little, but great job Frank. And an A+ on the unbiased nature of the article! Keep up the insightful work.</p>
<h4 id="aa3252e6-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-12 01:51</h4>
<p>Truemoderate: Thanks for stopping by. I think the margin of error stuff is noncontroversial. I see 53 beers on tap is questioning the sample size, but I think it&rsquo;s defensible given that you&rsquo;d need a sample size of more than 1,000 to get the margin of error below 3%, and that would make for a more expensive poll. The controversial part of this particular poll is the sampling methodology around likely voters. I&rsquo;d have to look more into that issue before I venture an opinion on it.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Margins of error in Howard County polling, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 07 Oct 2010 23:43:21 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/07/margins-of-error-in-howard-county-polling-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/ulmanintrouble-thursday-links.html&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising recently highlighted&lt;/a&gt; a new &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.marylandreporter.com/HoCo-exec-race-tightens-Ulman-v.-Kittleman.aspx&#34;&gt;poll on the Howard County executive race&lt;/a&gt;.  This occasioned much comment among HCR’s readers on the political implications of the polling numbers.  Rather than add to that discussion (fun though it may be) I want to address a different issue, namely how confident can we be that these or any other poll numbers are actually correct, or at least close to the truth?  For example, the stated “margin of error” on the county executive polling is 5%; what does that actually mean?  Also, even in the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.marylandreporter.com/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=1007&amp;amp;ver=2&#34;&gt;full results&lt;/a&gt; no margin of error was stated for the results broken down by county council district; can we mere mortals figure that out ourselves?  I thought it would be fun to explore these questions, and in the process rediscover a bit of the statistics knowledge I had lost since college.  If anyone else is interested in this topic so much the better.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/10/ulmanintrouble-thursday-links.html">HoCo Rising recently highlighted</a> a new <a href="http://www.marylandreporter.com/HoCo-exec-race-tightens-Ulman-v.-Kittleman.aspx">poll on the Howard County executive race</a>.  This occasioned much comment among HCR’s readers on the political implications of the polling numbers.  Rather than add to that discussion (fun though it may be) I want to address a different issue, namely how confident can we be that these or any other poll numbers are actually correct, or at least close to the truth?  For example, the stated “margin of error” on the county executive polling is 5%; what does that actually mean?  Also, even in the <a href="http://www.marylandreporter.com/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=1007&amp;ver=2">full results</a> no margin of error was stated for the results broken down by county council district; can we mere mortals figure that out ourselves?  I thought it would be fun to explore these questions, and in the process rediscover a bit of the statistics knowledge I had lost since college.  If anyone else is interested in this topic so much the better.</p>
<p>Let’s begin: <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error">Margin of error</a> is basically a measure of the likelihood that a particular polling result is within a particular range of values.  For example, in this poll 48.8% of the 381 people polled said they were likely to vote for Ken Ulman, with a reported 5% margin of error.  Assuming that the poll represents a true random sampling of likely Howard County voters (more on that later), that means that there’s a 95% chance that the actual number of people likely to vote for Ulman is somewhere in the range from 43.8% to 53.8%, i.e., 48.8% plus or minus 5%.  (Another way to state this is that 43.8% to 53.8% is the “95% confidence interval.”)</p>
<p>Similarly, in this poll 40.9% of the 381 people polled said they were likely to vote for Trent Kittleman.  Again assuming random sampling and that the margin of error is exactly the same at 5% (not quite true, as I’ll discuss later, but close enough), we can conclude that there’s a 95% chance that the actual number of people likely to vote for Trent Kittleman is somewhere in the range from 35.9% to 45.9% (the 95% confidence interval).  Thus, for example, it’s possible that the reported 49%/41% split between Ulman and Kittleman is the actual split, but it’s also possible that the real split is something like 49%/43%, or 50%/40%, or even (though with less likelihood) values like 52%/39% or 47%/45%.  However it’s highly unlikely (less than a 5% chance) that the real split is (for example) 56%/32% or 41%/49% or other values outside the confidence intervals listed.</p>
<p>The poll also reported breakdowns for the Ulman/Kittleman race in each county council district.  For example, per the poll 43.9% of people in Council District 1 were likely to vote for Ulman vs. 47.6% likely to vote for Kittleman.  For the district-level results the pollster did not report a margin of error.  Is the margin of error 5% for these results as well?  No, it is not.  Can we compute the margin of error ourselves?  Indeed we can.</p>
<p>There is a standard formula for computing the margin of error in polling a relatively small sample of people from a relatively large population (in this case, polling 381 people out of a total voter population of almost two hundred thousand people).  That formula assumes that the sample is truly random, that is, we have no reason to suspect that any particular voter is any more or less likely to be poled than any other voter.  If the sampling isn’t truly random then the formula doesn’t work and the reported results, margins of error, and associated confidence intervals may be somewhat different than what’s reported.</p>
<p>Let’s assume for our purposes that we are in fact dealing with a random sample of likely Howard County voters.  We can compute the margin of error for a particular polling result as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>Start with the result for which you want to calculate the margin of error.  Since we’re interested in Council District 1, let’s use the reported result that 43.9% of people polled in District 1 are likely to vote for Ken Ulman.</li>
<li>Subtract the result of interest from 100%.  In our example we have 100% minus 43.9%, or 56.1%..  This is the number of people who did <em>not</em> respond that they were going to vote for Ulman.  (In other words, they responded that they were going to vote for Trent Kittleman, or that they were still undecided.)</li>
<li>Take these two numbers and divide them by 100 to convert them into numbers between 0 and 1.  For our example we divide 43.9 by 100 to obtain 0.439, and divide 56.1 by 100 to obtain 0.561.</li>
<li>Multiply the two converted numbers together.  For our example we multiply 0.439 times 0.561 to obtain 0.246.</li>
<li>Divide this new number by the total number of people polled.  For this particular poll 82 people were polled in District 1, so for this example we divide 0.246 by 82 to obtain 0.003.</li>
<li>Find the square root of the resulting number.  (Recall that the square root of a number is a second number which can be multiplied by itself to obtain the original number.  For example, the square root of 9 is 3, because 3 times 3 is 9.)  Most modern calculators and calculator applications have a square root function; look for a key that looks somewhat like a check mark (√).  (For example, users with iPhones can open the calculator app and then turn the iPhone sideways to expose the square root function.)  For our example we find the square root of 0.003, which is 0.0548.</li>
<li>Take the resulting number and multiply it by 1.96.  For our example we have 0.0548 times 1.96, which gives 0.107.</li>
<li>Finally, multiply the number just computed by 100 to convert it back to a percentage; the resulting number is the margin of error.  For our example we have 0.107 times 100, which gives the margin of error as 10.7%.  This means that there’s a 95% chance that the true number of people in District 1 who are likely to vote for Ken Ulman is between 33.2% (43.9% minus 10.7%) and 54.6% (43.9% plus 10.7%).  (In other words, the 95% confidence interval is from 33.2% to 54.6%.)</li>
</ol>
<p>That’s all there is to it: no magic, just a little math that’s easily doable on a typical higher-end pocket calculator.  As an exercise, try computing the margin of error on the reported result that 47.6% of voters in Council District 1 were likely to vote for Trent Kittleman.  Don’t worry, I’ll wait.  . . .  Done yet?  The answer is 10.8%, with a 95% confidence interval of 36.8% to 58.4%.</p>
<p>(To recap: Take 47.6% and subtract from 100% to get 52.4%, then divide by 100 to get 0.476 and 0.524 respectively.  Multiply 0.476 by 0.524 to get 0.249, and then divide by 82 to get 0.00304.  The square root of 0.00304 is 0.0551, which multiplied by 1.96 gives 0.108, which multiplied by 100 gives 10.8% as the margin of error.  We then subtract 10.8% from 47.6% to get 36.8%, the lower end of the confidence interval, and add 10.8% to 47.6% to get 58.4%, the upper end of the confidence interval.)</p>
<p>To summarize: In Council District 1 if we assume that this is a truly random sample of likely voters then there’s a 95% chance that between 33.2% and 54.6% of likely voters in District 1 are likely to vote for Ken Ulman, and a similar 95% chance that between 36.8% and 58.4% of likely District 1 voters are likely to vote for Trent Kittleman.  These confidence intervals are very wide and have considerable overlap.  As a result, whether Kittleman is really leading Ken Ulman in District 1 is an unsettled question; it’s quite likely that if the poll were repeated on a different random sample of likely voters then the results would show a dead heat or a slight lead for Ulman.</p>
<p>Let’s try computing two more margins of error, this time for the poll results in Council District 2.  In that district 57.1% of people responded that they were likely to vote for Ulman and 28.6% responded likewise for Trent Kittleman, out of a sample size of 63 people.  Repeating the above computation, for Ulman’s result we obtain a margin of error of 12.2% and a 95% confidence interval of 44.9% to 69.3%, and for Kittleman’s result we obtain a margin of error of 11.2% and a 95% confidence interval of 17.4% to 39.8%.  Note that in this case the confidence intervals do not overlap, so that based on these results there’s only a small chance that the race is close in District 2, and it’s even more unlikely that Kittleman is actually leading Ulman in that district.</p>
<p>That’s enough margin of error fun for one post.  In part 2 I’ll continue the discussion and address some of the interesting issues around margins of error, random sampling, and related topics, again using these poll results to provide examples.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="406471bf-002">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-10-08 10:30</h4>
<p>While this discussion of the mathematical and statistical concepts of polling is interesting, Frank, I believe it is a little bit of &ldquo;not seeing the forest for the trees.&rdquo; First, polling is as much of an art as it is a science. A good pollster will set the parameters for the sample of voters to be tested based on what the pollster believes will be important in any given election. We may disagree on those parameters, but the pollster will not always use statistical precision in picking those parameters. Sometimes, it&rsquo;s just a gut feel. In any case, without a proper explanation being provided by the pollster about the polling sample, it is almost impossible to gauge whether a poll has much validity. Second, polls are used for different purposes. Sometimes they are used to test the direction a campaign should go with an issue, that is, find out what the voters want. They can also be used to find out what will &ldquo;move&rdquo; a voter. Thus, campaigns can use polls to set its message on any particular issue. Again, the campaign who purchased the poll or the pollster would need to provide a full explanation before one could determine what conclusions one can draw from a poll. Finally, and most importantly, pollsters, like Gonzales, make their money by giving good results. If the Gonzales poll is way off, it serves no one, including Gonzales. Indeed, during the next election cycle, other pollsters will be used rather than Gonzales if the polling does not measure up in this election. Credibility counts big time for pollsters. And, at costs of $20,000 to $40,000 or more per poll, one can easily understand why that credibility is important. So, what weight should the layman put on the results of a poll? Without explanation from the pollster, not too much. That said, a good pollster can be invaluable to a campaign, and that value is not based on just assembling a statistically significant base for the poll, but in setting the parameters for that poll for a particular election, and then asking the right questions. Not an easy task, but that&rsquo;s why pollsters can paid the big bucks.</p>
<h4 id="406471bf-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-08 13:29</h4>
<p>wildelakemike: Thanks for the informative and in-depth comment. It would make a good blog post (hint hint). Your points are well taken. My intent in this post was not to address polling in general. I mainly wanted to explore the specific question of how much margin of error there was in a poll based on a sample size of less than a hundred people, independent of how good a job the pollster did in setting up the polling parameters. In this case I think it&rsquo;s useful to point out that the reported 5% margin of error does not apply to the results broken down by council district (unless there&rsquo;s some math-related twist I&rsquo;m totally missing), and that those results re subject to a considerably higher margin of error.</p>
<h4 id="406471bf-010"><a href="http://www.reddish2010.com" title="email@reddish2010.com">Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court</a> - 2010-10-08 15:50</h4>
<p>Two points: 1) With regard to credibility, a pollster whose business comes mostly from candidates is best-served by framing their polls to make the patron appear to be gaining momentum heading towards Election Day, but focus on accuracy as Election Day comes into focus. In other words, we only know if a poll is inaccurate if it is so close to Election Day that there is little possibility of a sentiment shift. 2) The margin of error/confidence interval numbers given by Gonzales are a bit misleading as well, because those numbers are all based on Gonzales&rsquo; estimate of party identification turnout proportions. In other words, Gonzales is 95% confident that Ulman&rsquo;s vote total will fall in that range IF TURNOUT IS 50/35/15. Once you establish the rules of the game, everything else follows from there. Jason Reddish Candidate for Clerk of Court Authorized by Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court, Alexandra Costlow - Treasurer</p>
<h4 id="406471bf-011"><a href="http://www.reddish2010.com" title="email@reddish2010.com">Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court</a> - 2010-10-08 15:53</h4>
<p>Sorry, I misidentified the turnout model used by Gonzales. They based their sample on a turnout of 46% Dem - 40% GOP - 14% Other. Gonzales is 95% confident Ulman and Kittleman will fall in the ranges Frank cited if and only if that is the actual turnout for this election. Authorized by Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court, Alexandra Costlow - Treasurer</p>
<h4 id="406471bf-009">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-10-08 18:48</h4>
<p>While momentum is a good thing to show in an election, a credible pollster will not compromise that credibility for the short term benefit of one candidate.</p>
<h4 id="406471bf-008"><a href="http://www.reddish2010.com" title="email@reddish2010.com">Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court</a> - 2010-10-08 19:11</h4>
<p>Mike, I should have been clearer that I was not implying that Gonzales would bend to that pressure. The established pollsters are trusted for the reason you stated. I just meant that the pressure is to please the client early, reflect reality later (for future clients).</p>
<h4 id="406471bf-007"><a href="http://www.reddish2010.com" title="email@reddish2010.com">Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court</a> - 2010-10-08 19:12</h4>
<p>And, of course, this post and the above post are Authorized by Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court, Alexandra Costlow - Tresurer.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>How independent are Howard County independents?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/03/how-independent-are-howard-county-independents/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 03 Oct 2010 02:19:46 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/10/03/how-independent-are-howard-county-independents/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Continuing my series of posts related to my political beliefs, today I thought I’d look at the issue of independent voters and what their “independence” actually entails.  One of &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/em&gt;’s comments to me was regarding whether the concept of a “partisan moderate” actually made sense.  Whether the label actually applies to me is a separate question, and one which after thinking about it I’ll likely end up answering in the negative.  However I did think it was interesting that the concept of being a political moderate seems to be getting conflated with the idea of being relatively nonpartisan and independent in one’s political views.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Continuing my series of posts related to my political beliefs, today I thought I’d look at the issue of independent voters and what their “independence” actually entails.  One of <em><a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/">HoCo Rising</a></em>’s comments to me was regarding whether the concept of a “partisan moderate” actually made sense.  Whether the label actually applies to me is a separate question, and one which after thinking about it I’ll likely end up answering in the negative.  However I did think it was interesting that the concept of being a political moderate seems to be getting conflated with the idea of being relatively nonpartisan and independent in one’s political views.</p>
<p>From that perspective the ideal moderate would presumably be someone like <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/">Wordbones</a> who’s not bound to either of the two main political parties and is willing to consistently vote for person not party (as evidenced by his “one from column A, one from column B” <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/09/district-9a-house-of-delegates.html">District 9A endorsements</a>).  That in turn spurred me to look into the question of whether and to what extent this ideal of the politically engaged nonpartisan independent moderate actually matches reality.</p>
<p>First, let’s see how big a force political independents actually are.  There are at least two ways to measure this: people’s party identification (or lack thereof) as reported in polls, and party affiliations as recorded in voter registration databases.  We shouldn’t necessarily expect these measures to agree.  For example, in some states that are dominated by a single party and have uncompetitive general elections it’s not uncommon for independents to register as Democrats or Republicans in order to be able to vote in primaries.  Voter registration statistics in those states would therefore underestimate the number of independents.</p>
<p>I’m not aware of any published Howard County-specific polls that record party identification.  (If any of you know of some, please let me know.)  However at the national level the conventional wisdom has been that the number of independent voters is continuing to rise, with independent voters constituting at least a third of all voters and possibly becoming the largest single group of voters.  (See for example the <a href="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation">Rasmussen summary of party affiliation</a> over the last several years.)  Thus the implication that independent voters are now in the drivers seat, eager to cast their vote for whichever party can figure out <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/06/opinion/06brooks.html?_r=2">what independents want</a>.</p>
<p>Now let’s look at the second measure, voter registration statistics, in particular the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/voter_registration/monthly.html">monthly voter registration statistics</a> from the Maryland Board of Elections.  According to the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/pdf/vrar/2010_08.pdf">last report before the September primary</a> there were 176,599 registered voters in Howard County , of whom 85,350 (48.1%) were registered Democrats, 54,584 (30.9%) were registered Republicans, 1,030 (0.6%) were registered members of the other <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/voter_registration/index.html#Parties">recognized political parties in Maryland</a> (almost all in either the Green and Libertarian parties), and 35,635 (20.3%) were unaffiliated.  In other words, roughly half of Howard County registered voters are Democrats, a third are Republicans, and a fifth are presumably “independent” in some sense.</p>
<p>(These numbers have not greatly changed over the last ten years: The <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/pdf/vrar/0000_08.pdf">voter registration report for August 2000</a>, ten years earlier, shows 47.1% of Howard County voters registered as Democrats, 36.2% as Republicans, 0.1% as Libertarians, and 16.5% as unaffiliated.)</p>
<p>So based on national polling we’d expect 30% or more of Howard County voters to be independents, while based on voter registration we’d expect only 20% to be so.  One way to reconcile this is as I noted above: We hypothesize that lots of independent voters register as Democrats in Maryland because it’s effectively a one-party state, and independent voters want to exercise more influence over who gets nominated and (likely) elected.</p>
<p>However another possibility is that the polling regarding party identification is misleading, and that the number of independent voters is significantly overstated.  This is the <a href="http://www.themonkeycage.org/2009/12/three_myths_about_political_in.html">thesis of the political scientist John Sides</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Most independents are closet partisans.  This has been well-known in political science since at least 1992, with the publication of The Myth of the Independent Voter (<a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=V72ZMHZktZEC&amp;dq=myth+of+the+independent+voter&amp;pg=PP1&amp;ots=2gNy6n-Hia&amp;sig=AkN18HvGZgL5kY5JBlLn1wXKqKA&amp;hl=en&amp;prev=http://www.google.com/search?q=myth+of+the+independent+voter&amp;ie=utf-8&amp;oe=utf-8&amp;rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&amp;client=firefox-a&amp;sa=X&amp;oi=print&amp;ct=title&amp;cad=one-book-with-thumbnail">here</a>).</p>
<p>When asked a follow-up question [to the party identification question], the vast majority of independents state that they lean toward a political party.  They are the “independent leaners.” . . .</p>
<p>The number of pure independents is actually quite small&mdash;perhaps 10% or so of the population.  And this number has been decreasing, not increasing, since the mid-1970s.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Sides goes on to claim that most “independents” are simply weak partisans who for whatever reason don’t want to identify with their party of choice (“There is very little difference between independent leaners and weak partisans.  Approximately 75% of independent leaners are loyal partisans.”) and argues against the idea that the opinions of true independents (i.e., those who are not partisans) have significant political consequences:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Many claims about the opinions of independents never separate leaners from pure independents.  . . .</p>
<p>Movement among “pure” independents is generally less consequential simply because there are so few of these people and because they are less likely than partisans to vote (only 44% of pure independents reported voting in 2008 vs. 82% of strong partisans).  If an election was a nailbiter, then the votes of pure independents could provide the margin of victory, but I don’t know of any estimates of how often that is actually true.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Of particular interest is Sides’s claim that true independents are not that politically engaged.  Is this true in Howard County?  To shed some light on this, let’s look at the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/BOE/BOEDOCS/2010_primary_results.pdf">September 2010 primary results</a>.  (The results I’m linking to are the unofficial results from the Howard County board of elections; unfortunately the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/results/Primary/CountyResults_county_14_local_0.html">official results</a> reported by the state board of elections don’t contain the breakdowns I needed.)</p>
<p>The most recent primary had some competitive local races (e.g., the District 4 county council race on the Democratic side and the District 13 state senate race on the Republican side) but from a county-wide perspective it was a pretty tame affair.  Out of 85,349 registered Democrats only 22,221 voted in the primary, or 26.0%.  Out of 54,584 registered Republicans only 14,951 voted in the primary, or 27.4%.</p>
<p>However by most accounts the Board of Education race was pretty competitive and attracted a fair amount of interest.  One would therefore expect that a fair number of independents would have turned out to vote in it.  As it turned out, 38,595 ballots were counted for that race; subtracting the 22,221 Democrats and 14,951 Republicans leaves 1,423 ballots cast by unaffiliated voters and voters belonging to other parties.  Given that there are a total of 36,466 such voters, the turnout of independent voters was no greater than 4.0%.  In other words, independent voters turned out at a rate about one sixth that of partisan voters.</p>
<p>These turnout figures are consistent with the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2006/turnout/primary/2006_Gubernatorial_Primary_Statewide.html">turnout figures for the 2006 primary</a>.  In that primary 37.0% of registered Democrats voted in Howard County, 21.9% of registered Republicans, and only 4.1% of registered independents.</p>
<p>Now admittedly, these were both primary elections.  What can we expect from a general election, in which independents would presumably show up in force?  Looking at the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2006/turnout/general/county_wide.html">turnout figures for the 2006 general election</a> (the first O’Malley-Ehrlich contest), we see that 68.6% of registered Democrats voted in Howard County, 67.4% of registered Republicans, and only 50.6% of registered independents.  In other words, registered independents were only about three quarters as likely to vote as registered partisans.</p>
<p>(This result can be modeled nicely, albeit quite speculatively, as follows: Although 20% of the registered voters in Howard County are independents, we assume that only 10% are true independents and the other 10% are “independent leaners.”  We further assume that the independent leaners are as likely to vote as registered partisans, while the true independents are about half as likely to vote as registered partisans and independent leaners.  Combining these turnout percentages gives us an estimated turnout percentage for all independents that is three quarters of that of registered partisans.)</p>
<p>Sides concludes his post as follows:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>90% of the public is partisan and about 80-90% of those voters vote for their party’s candidate.  This is why the story of presidential elections is so often a story about partisans and not the fence-sitters who CNN recruits for debate dial groups.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>We can translate this into Howard County terms: Local elections this fall will likely not be determined by a presumed growing bloc of Wordbones-style independent moderates.  (In fact, it’s quite possible that the number of truly independent moderates who are actively politically engaged does not exceed one or two per cent of the electorate.)  Instead local elections will likely be determined primarily by the relative numbers of declared or undeclared Democrats and Republicans in the county and in each district, and by each party’s success in getting their registered voters and leaners out to the polls.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Public, private, and club goods in downtown Ellicott City</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/26/public-private-and-club-goods-in-downtown-ellicott-city/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 26 Sep 2010 23:48:02 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/26/public-private-and-club-goods-in-downtown-ellicott-city/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Saturday I went down to downtown Ellicott City for the fall festival, which turned out to be a much more popular event than I thought it would be.  (I had to park on Rogers Avenue a couple of hundred yards up from Main Street.)  If I were a normal person I’d be posting about the events and including some photos; however I couldn’t help filtering my experiences through the perspective of &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/25/why-government-public-goods/&#34;&gt;my previous post on government and public goods&lt;/a&gt; (not to mention private goods and club goods&amp;mdash;I skipped discussing common goods for reasons noted in a comment to the post).&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Saturday I went down to downtown Ellicott City for the fall festival, which turned out to be a much more popular event than I thought it would be.  (I had to park on Rogers Avenue a couple of hundred yards up from Main Street.)  If I were a normal person I’d be posting about the events and including some photos; however I couldn’t help filtering my experiences through the perspective of <a href="/2010/09/25/why-government-public-goods/">my previous post on government and public goods</a> (not to mention private goods and club goods&mdash;I skipped discussing common goods for reasons noted in a comment to the post).</p>
<p>I purchased some private goods during the outing, both knick-knacks (downtown Ellicott City of course being known for its small shops) and food and drink; nothing out of the ordinary there.  A more interesting example of private goods were the four Beatles-themed rooms (“John,” “Paul,” “George,” and “Ringo”) in the soon-to-open <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/75048/beatles-themed-obladi-historic-ellicott-citys-first-hotel/">Obladi hotel</a>, which I toured during its open house.  It’s really quite a lovely place, and I very much hope they’re able to make a go of it.</p>
<p>I also experienced three club goods (or potential club goods), of which only one was actually operated as a true excludable good.  The first was a visit to the <a href="http://www.ecborail.org/">B&amp;O Railroad Ellicott City Station Museum</a>, which charges a ticket fee for entrance and is thus truly excludable.  After being operated for many years by <a href="http://www.historicec.com/aboutUs.htm">Historic Ellicott City, Inc.</a>, the Ellicott City station is now part of the Baltimore-based <a href="http://www.borail.org/">B&amp;O Railroad Museum</a>, which is a tax-exempt nonprofit organization that receives some government funding but appears to derive most of its support from private donations, ticket sales, and other sources.  (Based on the museum’s Federal tax return or Form 990, available from <a href="http://www2.guidestar.org/ReportNonProfit.aspx?ein=52-1535426&amp;name=b-o-railroad-museum#">GuideStar</a>, it appears that in 2009 the museum received about 650K in government funding out of a total budget of about 3.25M, or about 20% of its revenue.)</p>
<p>The other places I visited were the <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/RAP/RAP_HistoricalSites.htm#anch223446">Ellicott City Firehouse Museum</a> and the <a href="http://www.historicec.com/thomasIsaac.htm">Thomas Isaac log cabin</a>, neither of which charge admission.  The reason for this seems pretty clear: both are very small facilities (just one room), and there’s not enough in either of them to justify charging an admission ticket.  In the absence of ticket revenue it’s doubtful that either facility could ever survive as a stand-alone operation and be able to employ even a minimal staff and maintain the properties; both are now owned by the Howard County government.  (The firehouse was always a county facility, while the log cabin was initially run by Historic Ellicott City, Inc., prior to being transferred to the county.)</p>
<p>In my prior post I expressed a preference for club goods to be provided by the private sector.  What justifies government involvement in the case of the firehouse museum and the log cabin?  I think the best justification is the historical significance of the properties in the context of Ellicott City and Howard County.  One can imagine instead a small private museum that contains a particular individual’s idiosyncratic collection&mdash;say bottle caps, or toy soldiers, or whatever&mdash;but has no larger significance.  I can’t see much justification for govenment funding of such an enterprise, unless perhaps it makes a major contribution to the local economy&mdash;but if that were the case, then private support from local businesses would seem to be a better source of funding.</p>
<p>The final example came to me as I was walking down Main Street and noticing all the overhead wires marring the view.  (They also intrude upon the otherwise picturesque Ellicott City winter scene that graces the cover of the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/DOA/Approved%20FY11%20Budget.htm">FY2011 Howard County budget</a>.)  I didn’t mention it in my previous post, but the beauty of the natural landscape or of a built environment is also a public good: We can all enjoy the view together, an enjoyment no one can deny us.</p>
<p>However like other public goods this one can be under-provisioned, and I think the view in Ellicott City is a good example of such: Removing wires from the scenery requires doing this for most if not all of Ellicott City, since it’s not possible to route utility lines underground for just one frontage.  An individual property owner can justify improvements to their own building that might attract more customers and tenants; however they certainly can’t justify paying for utility work for all the buildings on Main Street and having all the other property owners be free riders.</p>
<p>Of the many possible <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_good#Possible_solutions">solutions to providing public goods</a>, the conventional and obvious one in this case is for the Howard County government to pay the costs of putting utility lines underground, either from general funds or by imposing a special assessment on all affected property owners.  An unconventional approach, though it’s not clear if it would be feasible in this case, would be some sort of private joint action among property owners to try to reduce the free rider problem, for example, by entering into an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assurance_contract">assurance contract</a> to contribute funds to the project if (and only if) enough other property owners kicked in their share.</p>
<p>Whether the streetscape of Ellicott City will ever be free of overhead wires, through government funding or otherwise, is an open question.  Putting utility lines underground is mentioned as a possible action in the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/CountyCouncil/CCdocs/final.pdf">2003 Ellicott City master plan</a> (see page 22 in particular), but it appears to be in the context of an overall proposal to build a parking garage and eliminate on-street parking (in order to allow better access to do the work?). Considering that the question of <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/64162/paid-parking-mulled-ellicott-citys-main-street">what to do about parking in Ellicott City</a> appears to be up in the air, it’s unclear if anything will be done about overhead wiring in the historic district for the foreseeable future.  I invite readers who might know more about this to comment below.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="06f6d468-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-09-27 15:56</h4>
<p>I don&rsquo;t have anything to offer re the wiring, but I can say that I bought a private good (some coffee from the Little French Market) and am now drinking a cup of coffee while I read your post. Thanks for the tweet about the #ellicottcity event this past week. I&rsquo;d known about it but your tweet put the event on my radar again, and so I went. I, too, was impressed by the success of the event. And what a lovely day for such a street festival.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Why government?  Public goods</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/25/why-government-public-goods/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 25 Sep 2010 01:12:55 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/25/why-government-public-goods/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;A while back in the course of a &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/09/all-but-one.html#disqus_thread&#34;&gt;comment thread for a &lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt; post&lt;/a&gt; I promised to write more about my political views, so that people could decide whether I was a rabid lefty or just a wimpy lefty.  Rather than do this in an organized way (“these are the things I believe,” “this is my position on the &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nolan_Chart&#34;&gt;Nolan chart&lt;/a&gt;,” and so on), I thought it would be more fun to expose my beliefs in a more informal and indirect way by commenting on various issues that have come up on local blogs.  (Warning: This is to a large degree me “thinking out loud,” so don’t expect it to be either totally comprehensive or totally coherent, just expect it to be long.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A while back in the course of a <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/09/all-but-one.html#disqus_thread">comment thread for a <em>HoCo Rising</em> post</a> I promised to write more about my political views, so that people could decide whether I was a rabid lefty or just a wimpy lefty.  Rather than do this in an organized way (“these are the things I believe,” “this is my position on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nolan_Chart">Nolan chart</a>,” and so on), I thought it would be more fun to expose my beliefs in a more informal and indirect way by commenting on various issues that have come up on local blogs.  (Warning: This is to a large degree me “thinking out loud,” so don’t expect it to be either totally comprehensive or totally coherent, just expect it to be long.)</p>
<p>For the first set of posts I’m going to give some off-the-cuff opinions on why government exists and what its proper roles should be.  We’ll start off with the preamble to the <a href="http://topics.law.cornell.edu/constitution">US Constitution</a>, which touches on most if not all of the themes I’ll be discussing:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Note that I’m not a big Tea Party or Glenn Beck fan, but I do agree with them that <a href="http://www.wereadtheconstitution.com/">everyone should be familiar with the Constitution</a>, especially with the Preamble, which pretty much lays the groundwork for everything else, is much more inspiring than the parts about letters of marque and reprisal and the like, and lacks the morally repugnant cynicism of the whole “three fifths of all other Persons” business.  And as a bonus, if you study up on the preamble you can avoid the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBuPQgV8yBM">sad fate of Barney Fife</a>.)</p>
<p>In this post I’ll pivot off a <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/09/sub-lins-of-day.html">question that Trevor asked</a> in response to my <a href="/2010/09/21/the-real-story-on-howard-countys-broadband-grant/">post about the Maryland broadband grant</a>.  Trevor’s immediate question was about the extent to which government could improve the economy by spending tax payer dollars; that’s part of a broader question regarding whether and where the government should get involved in providing various goods and services.  One conventional approach to thinking about this question is based on the idea of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_goods">public goods</a>, and since I’m an unoriginal thinker that’s where I’ll start as well.</p>
<p>Since this is a Howard County blog let’s take a Howard County example, and a timely one at that.  This weekend thousands of people will descend upon Columbia for the <a href="http://www.virginmobilefestival.com/">Virgin Mobile FreeFest</a>.  As part of the festival the attendees will have an opportunity to buy food, drink, and other products.  These are what economists call private goods, and have two key characteristics: Only one person can consume a given good (the beer I drink is a beer you won’t be drinking) and one person can exclude another from obtaining the good (beer doesn’t rain from the sky for all to enjoy).  In economist-speak such goods are “rivalrous” and “excludable,” and as such they are well suited to be bought and sold via a free market: That beer is excludable means that I can’t get a beer unless I pay the brewer (directly or indirectly), and that beer is rivalrous means that everyone has to buy their own bottle, to the brewer’s benefit.</p>
<p>So, here’s our first principle: government shouldn’t be involved in the production or sale of private goods.  In other words, government shouldn’t be socialist (public ownership of the “means of production” being the very definition of socialism).  With some minor exceptions (temporary takeovers of banks or&mdash;more recently&mdash;GM) and a couple of major exceptions (public education and public hospitals such as the VA system) the US has never had a socialist economy.  Despite what some people think, it almost certainly never will, real socialism having exhausted whatever political appeal it might have had in the US in the early part of the 20th century.  (As Crocodile Dundee might say, “<a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/president-obama/">That</a>’s not a socialist, . . . <em><a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/president-obama/">that</a>’s</em> a socialist.”)</p>
<p>Does that mean I think that public schools, public hospitals, and so on, should all be privatized?  Not necessarily, but that’s a discussion for another post.  My point is simply that if private goods are involved then government should have some truly compelling reason for its involvement.  In some cases there is no such compelling reason, for example the government-run liquor stores found in various states (like <a href="http://www.abc.virginia.gov/wholereal.html">Virginia</a>) and counties (like <a href="http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/dlrtmpl.asp?url=https://frankhecker.com/content/dlc/liquor/Retail/home.asp">Montgomery</a>).  Governor McDonnell is <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/08/AR2010090807169.html">trying to privatize the Virginia stores</a>; would that Montgomery County would do likewise.</p>
<p>Now back to the Virgin Mobile FreeFest.  What about the festival itself?  The music at the festival is not a rivalrous good in the same sense as beer: My enjoying listening to a band doesn’t preclude a few thousand other people enjoying the same experience.  But the FreeFest is still an excludable good: Big burly folks with tattoos won’t let you come in and enjoy the FreeFest experience unless you have a ticket.  Such non-rivalrous excludable goods, sometimes called “club” goods, are also well-suited to the free market, since the excludability means that the producer can still charge the consumer for access to the good.  In fact, the non-rivalrous nature of the good can actually improve the producer’s ability to make money, since they can serve significantly more people without greatly increasing production costs.  In the case of the FreeFest they could keep expanding the audience without the bands having to work any harder, up to the capacity of the venue.</p>
<p>So here’s a possible second principle: Just as government shouldn’t be involved in the production and sale of private goods, it also shouldn’t be involved in the production and sale of club goods.  More simply, if you can sell a ticket or entrance fee to it then government shouldn’t be directly involved in it.  This would include government-run or -funded arts events, sports events, fairs, and so on.  Again, this doesn’t necessarily mean I’d oppose each and every instance of these, but they’d face an extra burden of justification as to why they’re a good investment of government time and money.</p>
<p>Let’s turn now to another downtown Columbia event, the annual Fourth of July fireworks display.  Like the FreeFest, this is a non-rivalrous good: My enjoying the fireworks doesn’t prevent you from enjoying them.  However unlike the FreeFest the firework display is a non-excludable good: Anyone in the vicinity of Columbia’s downtown can enjoy it to one degree or another, whether they’re at the lakeside or over at Howard Community College or just driving down US 29.  In economists’ definitions, “public goods” are exactly and only those goods that are non-rivalrous and non-excludable, like the fireworks.</p>
<p>A central economic problem with public goods is the possibility that a free market won’t provide them, or at least won’t provide enough of them to meet demand.  For example, leaving aside the relative appeal of fireworks vs music, why isn’t there a Virgin Mobile FreeFireworks?  One issue is that at the FreeFest there’s a much better opportunity to sell VIP tickets (can’t get in without them), to sell drinks and food (can’t bring in your own), and to subject attendees to advertisements from sponsors (can’t escape them).  Sponsoring a non-excludable event like a fireworks display is a much less attractive proposition for a business.  If the free market under-supplies a given public good, then the obvious question is whether the government should step in and provide it instead.</p>
<p>A classic example of a desirable government-provided public good is security, one that’s highlighted in the Constitution’s preamble (“provide for the common defence”).  Why security?  One reason is the need for a division of labor: if everyone has to stroll around their properties all day protecting their families and their homes, they’re not going to to have much time left over for any productive work.  But division of labor by itself is not sufficient to justify government action; after all, everybody could just hire private security forces.  The real issue is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_rider_problem">free rider problem</a>: If all your neighbors are paying for private security, and the presence of their security forces improves your security as well, you have less incentive to pay for private security yourself.  Everybody else can go through the same calculation, and the net effect is that there would likely be less security paid for than would be optimal given everyone’s preferences.</p>
<p>The conventional solution is to establish a government, support it through mandatory taxation, and give it a monopoly on the use of force; this solution was practiced at pretty much all times and places once agriculture was invented and people had to stay in place and thus were more vulnerable to predation.  The advantages of such an arrangement were so great that historically even societies whose rulers greatly oppressed the populace (e.g., through levels of confiscatory taxation well beyond the dreams of any modern politician) could achieve levels of productivity greatly in excess of those societies without active governments.</p>
<p>So much for security.  Are there other public goods that it would make sense for government to supply, or at least to subsidize?  One major one is knowledge, particularly scientific knowledge.  Basic research into questions of mathematics, physics, biology, etc., doesn’t typically lead to any near-term benefit, so most businesses see little or no point in funding it.  Prior to the 19th century most scientific research was funded by wealthy individual patrons, typically kings or other aristocrats.  The US, not having any aristocrats, eventually saw fit to provide government support of research through such organizations as the <a href="http://www.si.edu/about/history.htm">Smithsonian Institution</a> (established in 1848), public research universities (arising out of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land-grant_university">land-grant college</a> system established beginning in 1862), the <a href="http://www.usgs.gov/aboutusgs/">US Geological Survey</a> (established in 1879), and eventually after World War II a network of <a href="http://www.energy.gov/organization/labs-techcenters.htm">national government laboratories</a>, <a href="http://www.nih.gov/about/NIHoverview.html">research institutes</a>, and <a href="http://www.nsf.gov/about/">funding agencies</a>.</p>
<p>Others may differ, but I think it’s more than apparent that government funding of basic research has been a wise investment of taxpayer dollars over the years, improving the nation’s security, its economy, and the health of its people, and in general helping to fulfill the promise of the Constitution’s preamble to “promote the general Welfare.”  Are there other public goods of this type that the government should provide or at least subsidize?  In general any information-based good is a public good in the strict sense, particularly in digital form; this includes the ideas underlying technological innovations, artistic works of various types (fiction, poetry, art, music, etc.), and computer software.  I’ll address each of these briefly:</p>
<p>Technological innovations (as distinct from basic research) are generally adequately supplied by the free market; in the US government has funded some of this (for example, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124948593451108031.html">supporting manufacturers of electrical vehicles</a>), but I’m personally dubious about how much it makes sense to do so.  Artistic works and presentations thereof are also in good supply (a lot of artists would create even if they weren’t paid, or paid poorly) and where under-provision might exist I don’t think it’s really the government’s role to make up the difference.  I’m thus happy to leave funding of the arts to either commercial interests or to private philanthropy by wealthy individuals or not-so-wealthy individuals (e.g., through such mechanisms as <a href="http://www.kickstarter.com/">Kickstarter</a>).  (Funding of arts education in schools is a separate issue; it’s more in the nature of an investment in people who might go on to productive work in various creative industries.)  Finally, in a <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-3/">previous post</a> I advocated that government consider funding creation of open source software, at least in areas like information security that bear a reasonable relation to government’s purposes.</p>
<p>Beyond information goods, which are 100% non-rivalrous and non-excludable in their pure form, there are other goods, such as the public roadways, which are to some degree non-rivalrous and non-excludable.  For example, my using the roads doesn’t prevent you from using them, at least as long as the roads are not congested, and with some exceptions like toll expressways (such as the <a href="http://www.iccproject.com/">ICC</a>) it’s relatively difficult to exclude individuals from using public roads.  Building and operating roads has conventionally been a function of government, and it’s probably best to have it stay that way: Building roads is not rocket science beyond the competence of government, making a profit on roads (as would be necessary for a commercial firm) requires additional measures (e.g., adding toll booths, E-ZPass systems, etc.), and governments can use the power of eminent domain to avoid problems in acquiring rights of way.  There have been experiments in privatized roads, but the results <a href="http://www.loudountimes.com/index.php/news/article/Taking_its_toll232/">have not been universally acclaimed</a>.</p>
<p>After discussing information and highways, what better topic to conclude on than that hoary cliche, the “information superhighway,” better known as the Internet.  I noted in my <a href="/2010/09/21/the-real-story-on-howard-countys-broadband-grant/">post about the Maryland broadband grant</a> that I thought it was a good investment of taxpayer dollars.  That’s so even though in general the Internet has been successfully built out by private operators (admittedly after an initial period of fairly significant Federal funding).  What sways me about the broadband grant is that for the most part it’s not really attempting to substitute for free market activities.  The vast majority of it is simply the government building a network for its own use, to help make its operations more efficient and cost-effective, for example by supporting telephone service over its own data network (so-called “<a href="http://www.fcc.gov/voip/">voice over IP</a>” or VOIP service) instead of paying for business phone lines.  The network (or at least parts of it) will also help provide broadband service to the business and home markets, but this is true only in areas outside central Maryland where it’s not been cost-effective for commercial providers to offer truly high-speed service.  (And even in those areas government is not attempting to directly provide service, but rather is providing network capacity that private operators can leverage.)</p>
<p>It’s late, my laptop battery is dying, let’s wrap this thing up.  To summarize:</p>
<ul>
<li>Private goods should be provided by the market, unless there are compelling reasons for government to get involved.</li>
<li>Club goods should also be provided by the market, again unless there are good reasons to do otherwise.</li>
<li>Public goods should be provided by government if their provision serves public purposes (“provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare”) and if demand for them would not otherwise be met by the market.  Security and basic research definitely meet this test, and roads and other public physical infrastructure do as well.  Software and “digital infrastructure” meet the test only if they’re recognizably connected to the business of government, and funding for the arts does not meet the test at all in my opinion.</li>
</ul>
<p>Although there’s a lot more to be said about the general topic of government provision of goods and services (for example, what about public parks?) this is more than enough for one blog post.  In future posts in this series I’ll take a look at other roles government can (and where appropriate, should) take on.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="49a7739f-002"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-09-25 16:42</h4>
<p>You so rock, Frank! From the day I &ldquo;met&rdquo; you online til this one here, I continue to be expanded and more aware by being able to see through your eyes. Thank you for taking the time to organize your thoughts so logically and eloquently. And publicly. ;-)</p>
<h4 id="49a7739f-003"><a href="http://www.lochan.org/keith" title="keithw@lochan.org">Keith Wansbrough</a> - 2010-09-26 08:03</h4>
<p>What about the fourth quadrant: rivalrous, non-excludable goods? I guess that includes things like welfare, rescue, fire departments, emergency health care, and so on. It seems that the government should be involved in those too, by your argument, I think.</p>
<h4 id="49a7739f-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-09-26 16:31</h4>
<p>Keith: You&rsquo;re right, I left out rivalrous non-excludable goods, aka common goods. Part of the reason was space, another part was that a lot of the best examples of common don&rsquo;t involve actual government provision of goods. For example, in a Maryland context crabs are a common good: a crab I catch is a crab you can&rsquo;t catch (rivalrous), and absent some sort of intervention it&rsquo;s difficult to impossible to keep people from going crabbing (non-excludable). This is the classic &ldquo;tragedy of the commons&rdquo; scenario (everybody&rsquo;s motivated to catch all the crabs they can, until there are no more crabs for anyone to catch), and one possible solution is government regulation (i.e., licensing of crabbers, individual catch limits, overall quotas, etc.). However other possible solutions exist, including voluntary arrangements among crabbers, enforced within the group with minimal or no government intervention. In this post I was focusing on cases where there was some justification for government providing a good, whereas with common goods the focus is often more on government regulating access to the good. For example, emergency care could well be provided solely by private hospitals, with government simply laying down rules related to access to care.</p>
<h4 id="49a7739f-004">Matt (mwillmott@msn.com) - 2010-09-27 11:26</h4>
<p>This is refreshingly lucid and I really appreciate its tone. I&rsquo;d love to read more in the series! In particular, it seems to me that there is a category of rivalrous, excludable goods the absence of which are life-threatening (i.e., food, water and, arguably, health care) and that shouldn&rsquo;t necessarily be provided by government but which don&rsquo;t seem to get to the consumer in totally acceptable ways under the powers of the free market alone. (I&rsquo;m thinking specifically about the on-going health care debate and the mounting questions about industrial food production.) What considerations help us reasonably draw the line in such cases, or in the related cases where mistakes or misdeeds by free market entities can result in major consequences to the public? I very much appreciate your approach and would love to hear your thoughts.</p>
<h4 id="49a7739f-007"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-09-27 21:54</h4>
<p>Matt: Thanks for stopping by and commenting; I&rsquo;m glad you enjoyed the post. I do plan to continue the series, although I don&rsquo;t know exactly when I&rsquo;ll be able to post next. I&rsquo;ll have to think about your question. Part of the answer may lie in distribution mechanisms; for example, delivery of water to homes is a &ldquo;natural monopoly&rdquo; in ways that delivery of food is not, and hence we might expect more government involvement. For health care it&rsquo;s possible that a better framing is in terms of fairness and justice (which some would invoke to justify taking money from Peter and spending it on Paul&ndash;or letting Paul spend it himself).</p>
<h4 id="49a7739f-008">Trevor (trevordentist@gmail.com) - 2010-10-04 20:08</h4>
<p>Frank, I loved this post. Can you please put all your posts together and publish a book? Or even better, can you teach a class at HCC on economics and political science? I would sign up for that class in a heart-beat. I have to ask, what is your educational background? You clearly have a fantastic understanding of a variety of government and economic issues.</p>
<h4 id="49a7739f-009"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-05 01:06</h4>
<p>Trevor: Glad you liked the post. To answer your questions: First, I&rsquo;m not sure I&rsquo;ve had the time or energy to adapt this material into book form. However all my stuff is published under a license that allows other people to do this if they&rsquo;d like, without needing any further permission from me. Check out the &ldquo;steal this blog&rdquo; page linked to in the upper right of this page. As to my educational background, I was an applied math and physics major; I have no special training in economics or political science. I just read Wikipedia articles and do a fair amount of googling :-)</p>
<h4 id="49a7739f-005">quenee (s11034514@student.usp.ac.fj) - 2010-10-15 02:43</h4>
<p>Why is user fees imposed for the use of public goods and what might be some political reasons behind government ownership of such public goods</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The real story on Howard County’s broadband grant</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/21/the-real-story-on-howard-countys-broadband-grant/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 21 Sep 2010 00:19:16 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/21/the-real-story-on-howard-countys-broadband-grant/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Last week &lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt; did a &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/09/broadband-coup.html&#34;&gt;post&lt;/a&gt; on a supposed $72M of Federal grant money being awarded to Howard County for a broadband network.  Unfortunately HCR was led astray by some basic errors of fact in the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.explorehoward.com/news/75024/howard-county-play-key-role-state-broadband-network/&#34;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Columbia Flier&lt;/em&gt; story&lt;/a&gt; he used as a source.  A more accurate (though still not 100% correct) &lt;a href=&#34;http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-09-17/news/bs-md-ho-broadband-grant-20100917_1_fiber-broadband-stimulus-money&#34;&gt;story&lt;/a&gt; was published by the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The bottom line is that (contrary to what’s implied by the &lt;em&gt;Columbia Flier&lt;/em&gt; story) Howard County is &lt;em&gt;not&lt;/em&gt; getting $72M in funding for its own use, Howard County is simply receiving the money on behalf of other Maryland counties and cities.  To quote from the &lt;em&gt;Sun&lt;/em&gt; story:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last week <em>HoCo Rising</em> did a <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/09/broadband-coup.html">post</a> on a supposed $72M of Federal grant money being awarded to Howard County for a broadband network.  Unfortunately HCR was led astray by some basic errors of fact in the <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/75024/howard-county-play-key-role-state-broadband-network/"><em>Columbia Flier</em> story</a> he used as a source.  A more accurate (though still not 100% correct) <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-09-17/news/bs-md-ho-broadband-grant-20100917_1_fiber-broadband-stimulus-money">story</a> was published by the <em>Baltimore Sun</em>.</p>
<p>The bottom line is that (contrary to what’s implied by the <em>Columbia Flier</em> story) Howard County is <em>not</em> getting $72M in funding for its own use, Howard County is simply receiving the money on behalf of other Maryland counties and cities.  To quote from the <em>Sun</em> story:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Much of the money&mdash;about $72 million dedicated to the 10 jurisdictions in Central Maryland&mdash;will be administered by Howard County.  It was Howard’s information systems director, <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2007-01-03/news/0701030098_1_ira-levy-county-government-ulman">Ira Levy</a>, who spent 18 months leading the effort to get the money.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>(Although the <em>Sun</em> story doesn’t mention it, the ten jurisdictions in question are Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery, and Prince Georges counties and the cities of Baltimore and Annapolis, as noted in the <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/News/News_20100917.htm">Howard County government press release</a> announcing the award.)</p>
<p>The actual amount Howard County is getting is much lower; the story doesn’t specify the exact amount, but it appears to be on the order of $10M, with Howard County putting up $2M as matching funding, an amount which has apparently already been budgeted for.  Again from the <em>Sun</em> story:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Levy said it may take several months for the new money to be put to work, but subdivisions that have already set funds aside toward the 20 percent local match can begin using them.</p>
<p>“We can start next week,” Levy said, noting the $2 million Howard had put aside.  “Now we have confidence to spend it since it’s part of a larger project.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While I’m correcting errors, I should point out that the <em>Sun</em> story is incorrect in implying that the Federal government intends to give Maryland $4.7B in broadband funding.  (“The money comes from a pool of $4.7 billion in funds set aside by the federal government to improve broadband access for poor and underserved communities across Maryland.”)  The $4.7B is what is set aside for the entire US under the <a href="http://www2.ntia.doc.gov/about">Broadband Technology Opportunities Program</a> run by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (part of the US Department of Commerce).</p>
<p>The <em>Sun</em> also appears to be confusing “megabytes” and “gigabytes” with “megabits per second” (Mbps) and “gigabits per second” (Gbps) respectively:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Many public safety and government institutions across Maryland currently have access to about 10 megabytes to 1 gigabyte of Internet service.  By comparison, most broadband services for consumers start at around 1 megabyte.</p>
<p>The new fiber-optic installations would boost public sector accessibility from one gigabyte to up to 10 gigabytes, officials said.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A byte is eight bits, so the above considerably overstates the network bandwidth available to government agencies.  (And of course bandwidth is stated in terms of data transmitted per second, not in terms of data amounts in isolation.)  I presume the <em>Sun</em> meant to say that current government connections are in the range of 10Mbps to 1Gbps (equal to 1,000Mbps), with this network upgrade increasing speeds up to 10Gbps.  (By comparison, I currently have a 25Mbps FiOS connection at home, about 400 times slower.)</p>
<p>As noted in the <em>Sun</em> story, this was actually the second attempt by Howard County and others to get broadband funding.  The <a href="http://www.ntia.doc.gov/broadbandgrants/applications/results.cfm?org=&amp;keywords=&amp;grantround=&amp;id=2476&amp;state=&amp;status=">first grant application</a>, submitted by Howard County on behalf of the other central Maryland jurisdictions, was for just under $100M and was rejected.  (The <em>Sun</em> story says that the reason was that the central Maryland jurisdictions and the other Maryland jurisdictions weren’t cooperating.)  The Maryland Department of Information Technology then submitted a <a href="http://www.ntia.doc.gov/broadbandgrants/applications/results.cfm?org=&amp;keywords=&amp;grantround=&amp;id=7392&amp;state=&amp;status=">second unified grant application</a> for $140M, and was awarded $115M.</p>
<p>Some final comments: <em>HoCo Rising</em> pointed out that this money ultimately adds to the Federal debt (true, like any Federal spending right now) and is not a free lunch for Howard County given the requirement for 20% matching funds (also true).  Commenter Geoff then proposed that Ken Ulman simply turn down the money to demonstrate fiscal prudence.</p>
<p>However as noted above the actual Howard County matching amount is apparently an already-budgeted $2M, instead of the new funding of $25.2M that HCR estimated based on the <em>Columbia Flier</em>’s bogus figures.  Also, since this is a Maryland-wide initiative Howard County couldn’t simply refuse the money, since Howard County is administering a major part of the project on behalf of other jurisdictions, and the fiber links and related infrastructure going into Howard County are an integral part of the whole network.</p>
<p>Having read the grant application <a href="http://www.ntia.doc.gov/broadbandgrants/applications/summaries/7392.pdf">executive summary</a> and the award <a href="http://www.ntia.doc.gov/broadbandgrants/applications/factsheets/7392FS.pdf">fact sheet</a>, I can confidently state that there are far worse uses of taxpayer dollars than this grant.  I can also be pretty confident that most if not all politicians in Maryland, Democrats or Republicans, would agree with me.  In particular this includes the county executives of the more rural and “red” counties of Maryland.</p>
<p>If left to its own devices the workings of the market would lead to those counties having very little broadband network access relative to the central Maryland counties, since the low population density and lower household income in Maryland’s rural counties make providing fiber service to them an unattractive business proposition for companies like Verizon.  (It’s no accident that Howard County was one of the first counties in the nation to get FiOS.)  To the extent that good network connectivity is a foundation for economic growth, in the absence of government support those counties would continue their history of lagging behind the more urbanized areas of Maryland.</p>
<p>The bottom line as I see it is that this grant is a good thing for the people of Howard County and all of Maryland, and represents exactly the sort of infrastructure building that is and should be a core function of government.  Even though it was funded by taking on government debt, in the end this looks like an investment that will pay off.  Our thanks should go to Ira Levy and others in the Howard County Department of Technology &amp; Communications Services whose hard work helped secure this grant.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="10017d6c-005"><a href="http://www.reddish2010.com" title="email@reddish2010.com">Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court</a> - 2010-09-21 05:19</h4>
<p>Ken Ulman spoke about this award at his family picnic at Nixon&rsquo;s Farm Sunday afternoon. The network will essentially create a public sector &ldquo;cloud&rdquo; that will link the services in the counties you mentioned. Some schools are apparently leasing their lines at present, and this grant will create cost savings over time (I don&rsquo;t recall the dollar amount), not to mention independence. The bandwidth issue you cited is also becoming an increasing problem. Though I am sure the crunch has more pressing effects, one example I recall is that our schools are unable to make use of the thousands of hours of high-definition programming that MPT makes available for free, simply because they lack the bandwidth to show them. (Bandwidth is essentially the breadth of the information superhighway, or the amount of data that can be carried by existing infrastructure. Transfer speed is a limiting factor, but the &ldquo;bore of the pipe&rdquo; is just as limiting. Services such as streaming home rental video and YouTube are really starting to choke that supply.) I, for one, am proud to see us taking the lead rather than resting on our recent laurels. Authorized by Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court, Alexandra Costlow - Treasurer</p>
<h4 id="10017d6c-001"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-09-21 11:06</h4>
<p>Thanks for the detailed expose. The lack of reliable, affordable broadband internet access in underserved areas is a big one, and I am glad to see that Maryland is addressing the problem. A good comparison to this is bringing dependable phone and electricity out to rural areas back in the early 1900s&ndash; at the time, it was seen as a luxury but now is a necessity. I get that Verizon has to make money and will go into areas where it can do so, but it&rsquo;s a shame that the areas that could really use the service are the last to get it. This looks like money well-spent (or I guess well-allocated).</p>
<h4 id="10017d6c-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-09-21 16:39</h4>
<p>Jason and Sarah: Thanks for your comments. One interesting point I should have expanded on is the cost of bringing broadband to rural areas. The 15 Maryland counties outside the central &ldquo;core&rdquo; have about 16% of the population (0.91M people out of a total state population of 5.7M), but are getting 37% of the broadband funding ($43M out of $115M) &ndash; a government subsidy over twice as large per capita compared to the more urban counties.</p>
<h4 id="10017d6c-003"><a href="http://www.reddish2010.com" title="email@reddish2010.com">Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court</a> - 2010-09-21 17:31</h4>
<p>Frank, I don&rsquo;t have the data to support this, but I would bet that those rural areas also have the most expensive leased lines running to those hard-to-reach people. While population would seem to be a good indicator of where resources should go, that isn&rsquo;t always the case with the public sector. Eastern Correctional Institute outside Princess Anne (Westover) in Somerset County is a good example of a rural place that really needs to be on an integrated public cloud. I remember Ken saying that essentially they realized during the application process that it would not be much more expensive to integrate the entire state instead of just the central counties you identified. If I remember correctly, that&rsquo;s when they went for the whole prize. This obviously isn&rsquo;t my area of political expertise, but I am very interested in seeing Maryland take the edge on the technology front, as that&rsquo;s the best insurance for our future prosperity in my opinion. Authorized by Jason Reddish for Clerk of Court, Alexandra Costlow - Treasurer</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County Democratic Central Committee 2010 Election Results</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/16/howard-county-democratic-central-committee-2010-election-results/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:52:37 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/16/howard-county-democratic-central-committee-2010-election-results/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;After posting about the &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/12/voting-for-the-howard-county-democratic-central-committee/&#34;&gt;Howard County Democratic Central Committee candidates&lt;/a&gt; I’d be remiss if I didn’t post the DCC election results.  So without further ado here’s the list in decreasing order of votes; this is from the unofficial &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.co.ho.md.us/BOE/BOE_results.htm&#34;&gt;election results&lt;/a&gt; as of 12:32 am on September 15, with 113 of 116 precincts reporting:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;table&gt;
  &lt;thead&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;th&gt;Candidate&lt;/th&gt;
          &lt;th&gt;Votes&lt;/th&gt;
          &lt;th&gt;% of Total Votes&lt;/th&gt;
          &lt;th&gt;% of Democrats Voting&lt;/th&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;/thead&gt;
  &lt;tbody&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Kathy Macfarlane&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;10,146&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;7.84%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;46.6%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Carol J Chase&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;9,144&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;7.07%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;42.0%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Ethel B Hill&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;9,127&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;7.05%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;42.0%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Kristen M Neville&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;8,661&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;6.69%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;39.8%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Diane Banner&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;8,290&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;6.41%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;38.1%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Deanna Peel&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;8,159&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;6.31%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;37.5%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Catherine Zomlefer&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;7,957&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;6.15%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;36.6%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Abby R Hendrix&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;7,751&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;5.99%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;35.6%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Michael C McPherson&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;7,702&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;5.95%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;35.4%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Clarence Lam&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;7,054&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;5.45%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;32.4%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Ethan Moore&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;6,994&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;5.41%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;32.2%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Jonathan K Branch&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;6,613&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;5.11%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;30.4%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;(following not elected)&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Willis E Gay&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;6,145&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;4.75%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;28.3%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Daniel Besseck&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;6,037&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;4.67%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;27.8%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Bill Adams&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;5,924&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;4.58%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;27.2%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Rich Corkran&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;5,363&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;4.15%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;24.7%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Kevin Treine&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;4,177&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;3.23%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;19.2%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
      &lt;tr&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;Jerome S Lozupone&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;4,140&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;3.20%&lt;/td&gt;
          &lt;td&gt;15.2%&lt;/td&gt;
      &lt;/tr&gt;
  &lt;/tbody&gt;
&lt;/table&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second column is the percentage each candidate got out of the total of 129,384 votes cast for DCC candidates, while the third (and I think more informative) column is the percentage of votes for each candidate relative to the total number of Democrats who turned out to vote (21,752).  (As an aside, 14,653 Republicans and 1,399 independents also voted.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After posting about the <a href="/2010/09/12/voting-for-the-howard-county-democratic-central-committee/">Howard County Democratic Central Committee candidates</a> I’d be remiss if I didn’t post the DCC election results.  So without further ado here’s the list in decreasing order of votes; this is from the unofficial <a href="http://www.co.ho.md.us/BOE/BOE_results.htm">election results</a> as of 12:32 am on September 15, with 113 of 116 precincts reporting:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Candidate</th>
          <th>Votes</th>
          <th>% of Total Votes</th>
          <th>% of Democrats Voting</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>Kathy Macfarlane</td>
          <td>10,146</td>
          <td>7.84%</td>
          <td>46.6%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Carol J Chase</td>
          <td>9,144</td>
          <td>7.07%</td>
          <td>42.0%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Ethel B Hill</td>
          <td>9,127</td>
          <td>7.05%</td>
          <td>42.0%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Kristen M Neville</td>
          <td>8,661</td>
          <td>6.69%</td>
          <td>39.8%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Diane Banner</td>
          <td>8,290</td>
          <td>6.41%</td>
          <td>38.1%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Deanna Peel</td>
          <td>8,159</td>
          <td>6.31%</td>
          <td>37.5%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Catherine Zomlefer</td>
          <td>7,957</td>
          <td>6.15%</td>
          <td>36.6%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Abby R Hendrix</td>
          <td>7,751</td>
          <td>5.99%</td>
          <td>35.6%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Michael C McPherson</td>
          <td>7,702</td>
          <td>5.95%</td>
          <td>35.4%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Clarence Lam</td>
          <td>7,054</td>
          <td>5.45%</td>
          <td>32.4%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Ethan Moore</td>
          <td>6,994</td>
          <td>5.41%</td>
          <td>32.2%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Jonathan K Branch</td>
          <td>6,613</td>
          <td>5.11%</td>
          <td>30.4%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>(following not elected)</td>
          <td></td>
          <td></td>
          <td></td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Willis E Gay</td>
          <td>6,145</td>
          <td>4.75%</td>
          <td>28.3%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Daniel Besseck</td>
          <td>6,037</td>
          <td>4.67%</td>
          <td>27.8%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Bill Adams</td>
          <td>5,924</td>
          <td>4.58%</td>
          <td>27.2%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Rich Corkran</td>
          <td>5,363</td>
          <td>4.15%</td>
          <td>24.7%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Kevin Treine</td>
          <td>4,177</td>
          <td>3.23%</td>
          <td>19.2%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>Jerome S Lozupone</td>
          <td>4,140</td>
          <td>3.20%</td>
          <td>15.2%</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>The second column is the percentage each candidate got out of the total of 129,384 votes cast for DCC candidates, while the third (and I think more informative) column is the percentage of votes for each candidate relative to the total number of Democrats who turned out to vote (21,752).  (As an aside, 14,653 Republicans and 1,399 independents also voted.)</p>
<p>Some observations on the results:</p>
<ul>
<li>As noted above, there were 129,384 votes cast for DCC candidates by the 21,752 Democrats voting, so each Democratic voter on average voted for six candidates out of the 12 possible slots.  By comparison there were 74,515 votes cast for Republican Central Committee candidates by the 14,653 Republicans who turned out, so each Republican voter on average voted for five Central Committee candidates out of the nine possible slots.  I wonder if Republicans were slightly more interested in and/or knowledgeable about the Central Committee races?</li>
<li>Kathy Macfarlane, the top vote-getter of the DCC candidates, is also the mother of <a href="http://www.byronmacfarlane.com/">Byron Macfarlane</a>, who will be the Democratic candidate for Howard County Register of Wills.  I have no idea if or how this is connected with her success as a DCC candidate&mdash;or for that matter Byron’s success in getting the Register of Wills nomination.  (<del>By the way, could the MacFarlanes please be more consistent in the spelling of their name? On Byron MacFarlane’s web site he spells it “Macfarlane” with a lower-case “f” on the home page, and then “MacFarlane” with a capital “F” on other pages.  The Board of Elections has “MacFarlane” for both candidates, so I presume that’s the canonical spelling.</del> Note that per Byron’s comment below, “Macfarlane” is the correct capitalization, contrary to what was listed on the Board of Elections ballots and results.)</li>
<li>Of the ten DCC candidates <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">endorsed by the Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> all but one (Rich Corkran) were elected.</li>
<li>Of the seven candidates <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/74378/sigaty-bobo-get-nod-african-americans-howard-county/">endorsed by African Americans in Howard County</a> (AAIHC) all but one (Willis Gay) were elected.</li>
<li>Of the six DCC candidates <a href="http://www.stonewalldemocratsmd.org/endorsements">endorsed by the Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland</a> four were elected and two (Daniel Besseck and Kevin Treine) were not.</li>
<li>As previously noted, I couldn’t find a complete list of endorsements by the Columbia Democratic Club.  However of the DCC candidates who I found were endorsed by the Columbia Democratic Club, all were elected.</li>
<li>Of the DCC candidates who had an online DCC campaign site, all were elected.  Also note that Jonathan Branch (who had a web site) was the last DCC candidate elected, and Willis Gay (who did not) was the first DCC candidate not elected, with a margin of 468 votes separating the two.  Compare this with the approximately 800 page views <a href="/2010/09/12/voting-for-the-howard-county-democratic-central-committee/">my post on the DCC candidates</a> received.  My hypothesis is that despite <a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com/2010/09/moving-forward.html">Sarah’s pleas</a> having an online presence isn’t really a necessity for DCC candidates (Kathy Macfarlane certainly did great without one), but it may (repeat, may) make a difference for marginal candidates trying to attract enough support to put them over the line.</li>
</ul>
<p>And with that I’ll conclude my amateur foray into Howard County Democratic Central Committee affairs.  Congratulations to all of the new Democratic Central Committee members, and good luck to the DCC in helping get Democrats elected in this and future Novembers.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="b5ede6a7-002"><a href="http://www.byronmacfarlane.com" title="electmacfarlane@gmail.com">Byron Macfarlane</a> - 2010-09-16 05:13</h4>
<p>Frank, Thank you for your reporting on these election results. While the Central Committee is probably the least known political entity in the county, it serves a vital function in building the local Democratic Party. To address the spelling of my last name, it is, indeed, Macfarlane, with a lower-case &ldquo;f&rdquo;. My family regularly has that misspelled or mis-capitalized and we try to have it corrected as often as possible. The Howard County Times article on the Register of Wills primary should have the proper spelling if (or when) you read it Thursday. Thanks again.</p>
<h4 id="b5ede6a7-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-09-16 12:41</h4>
<p>Byron: Glad you liked the post. As I&rsquo;ve stated, I did this and my previous post as a resource for local Democrats who don&rsquo;t have time to get out to HoCo Democratic party events or read party-related mailing lists. Also, I&rsquo;ve corrected the capitalization of your and your mother&rsquo;s names. Incidentally, I was incorrect in my comment about your name being capitalized differently on your web site; it was actually a third-party endorsement page that had it wrong.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County primary miscellany</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/14/howard-county-primary-miscellany/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 14 Sep 2010 22:49:44 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/14/howard-county-primary-miscellany/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Now that the polls have closed in Howard County I thought I’d post a few random comments on the primary election.  Since I don’t know all that much about Howard County politics and the people involved in it, don’t expect anything that incisive or interesting, especially when it comes to “horse race” coverage.  For that sort of thing I head over to &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;Hoco Rising&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;Tales of Two Cities&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/&#34;&gt;53 beers on tap&lt;/a&gt;, and other local blogs, and you should too.  But if you’re sticking around . . .&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now that the polls have closed in Howard County I thought I’d post a few random comments on the primary election.  Since I don’t know all that much about Howard County politics and the people involved in it, don’t expect anything that incisive or interesting, especially when it comes to “horse race” coverage.  For that sort of thing I head over to <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/">Hoco Rising</a>, <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/">Tales of Two Cities</a>, <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/">53 beers on tap</a>, and other local blogs, and you should too.  But if you’re sticking around . . .</p>
<p>As I previously noted, I don’t do political endorsements on this blog (not that anyone would care if I did), so (<a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com/2010/09/thoughts-on-primary.html">like Sarah</a>) I’m not going to tell you who I voted for.  However I can tell you that except for the nonpartisan Board of Education race I voted only for Democrats.  (Very funny, Frank.)  More seriously, I tried above all to follow the maxim, “First, do no harm.”  So I didn’t vote for anyone about whom I knew absolutely nothing, even in a race where they were unopposed.  In the races where you could vote for multiple candidates I didn’t always vote a full slate.</p>
<p>In those cases where I did vote, all other things being equal I showed a preference for those candidates who had some sort of online record and (ideally) an online presence.  I mean, it’s been fifteen years and several elections since the Web became a mass medium; you’d think anyone serious about soliciting the support of the general public would have learned how to put up a basic web site by now.  The personal touch is also nice; Jon Weinstein stopped by my house to drop off a flyer, and one of the Howard County Democratic Central Committee candidates even sent me a nice email explaining why they were running (and by doing so got my vote).</p>
<p>Speaking of the Democratic Central Committee: I’m very much a Z-list blogger, and my blog typically has well under 100 page views per day.  Thus I was very surprised to find that <a href="/2010/09/12/voting-for-the-howard-county-democratic-central-committee/">my post on the Democratic Central Committee candidates</a> (which I dashed off in a hour or two early Sunday morning) received over eight hundred page views; in fact, it was the most popular blog post I’ve ever done.  A lot of the traffic came from Google searches, and in fact that post is currently the second item returned from a search for “Howard County Democratic Central Committee” (after the <a href="http://www.howardcountydems.com/">home page for the Central Committee</a> itself).</p>
<p>My conclusion is that there are a fair number of Howard County Democrats who are interested in local party activities but aren’t necessarily plugged into existing organizations like the <a href="http://www.columbiademocraticclub.org/">Columbia Democratic Club</a> and the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard Democratic Club</a>.  They’re apparently not getting enough online information from the existing Democratic organizations, and thus are willing to turn to a rank amateur for help.  I’ll be interested to see how the number of people reading the blog post compares to the margin of victory for the successful Central Committee candidates.</p>
<p>A final thought: When I entered the voting booth and saw the electronic voting machine I remembered the good folks at the <a href="http://www.osdv.org/">Open Source Digital Voting Foundation</a>, whose mission is to “create publicly owned transparent, trustworthy voting technology for any US elections jurisdiction.”  I was privileged to talk with the founders of OSDV when they were first getting it started, and I can confidently state that anyone who is interested in politics and especially anyone interested in the integrity of elections should familiarize themselves with the work OSDV is doing.  (Locally DC CTO <a href="http://dc.gov/DC/OCTO/About+OCTO/Who+We+Are/Director%27s+Biography">Bryan Sivak</a> is a big fan; he subbed for <a href="http://www.gov2summit.com/gov2010/public/schedule/speaker/31520">Greg Miller</a> of OSDV in giving a presentation at the recent <a href="http://www.gov2summit.com/gov2010/">Gov 2.0 Summit</a>, and this election cycle DC is doing a <a href="http://www.osdv.org/about/osdv-news-press/district_of_columbia_adopts_osdv_technology">pilot using OSDV technology</a> to handle overseas ballots.)</p>
<p>The great thing about OSDV is that they are not focusing on isolated issues and trying to push a particular technology as a panacea.  Instead they are looking at the entire elections process, from voter registration through to auditing of election results, and are doing so with the active participation of working election officials from around the country.  And of course since they’re doing this as an open source project everything produced will be available to any jurisdiction at no cost, including full source code.  Again, I urge you to check out their <a href="http://www.trustthevote.org/background">Trust the Vote</a> project, and to consider <a href="http://www.osdv.org/contribute/contribute-today">donating some money</a> or (if you’re an election official, software developer, or security expert) <a href="http://www.trustthevote.org/be-involved">contributing your expertise</a> to the project.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="d907dc09-004"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-09-15 11:43</h4>
<p>I was going to do an entry along the same lines as the first half of your post! How do candidates not have at least a boilerplate page in this day and age? Using the free blogs out there, a volunteer (who could even work on their own schedule!), and an eight dollar domain name that redirects to the blog, any candidate can have a solid, pretty much free website. They would hit a crowd of people they currently are missing.</p>
<h4 id="d907dc09-003"><a href="http://tell-your-neighbors.blogspot.com/" title="johngordonboyle@gmail.com">johngordonboyle</a> - 2010-09-15 15:07</h4>
<p>Frank, A correction: I&rsquo;m a Z-list blogger. You&rsquo;re at least a B-lister ;)</p>
<h4 id="d907dc09-002"><a href="http://www.vote4jon.com" title="jon@voteweinstein.com">Jon Weinstein</a> - 2010-09-22 18:11</h4>
<p>Frank, It was nice to meet you. Despite the rainy weather, I enjoyed talking with you and many of your neighbors. I hope I earned your vote! Jon</p>
<h4 id="d907dc09-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-09-23 23:17</h4>
<p>Jon: Thanks for stopping by! Incidentally, you and Bob Flanagan were the only two candidates who canvassed my street, at least while I was home.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Voting for the Howard County Democratic Central Committee</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/12/voting-for-the-howard-county-democratic-central-committee/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 12 Sep 2010 01:36:50 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/09/12/voting-for-the-howard-county-democratic-central-committee/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Those few of you who read this blog regularly will recall that I’m a registered Democrat, and therefore one of my missions (should I choose to accept it) is voting for members of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountydems.com/&#34;&gt;Howard County Democratic Central Committee&lt;/a&gt;.  I normally pass on this, as in the past I’ve had no idea who any of these people are.  However since I’ve been reading a number of local blogs focused on politics and have been doing a fair amount of Howard County blogging myself, I thought it was incumbent on me to bone up on the Central Committee candidates, especially if any of them are especially good (or bad) people to have on the committee.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those few of you who read this blog regularly will recall that I’m a registered Democrat, and therefore one of my missions (should I choose to accept it) is voting for members of the <a href="http://www.howardcountydems.com/">Howard County Democratic Central Committee</a>.  I normally pass on this, as in the past I’ve had no idea who any of these people are.  However since I’ve been reading a number of local blogs focused on politics and have been doing a fair amount of Howard County blogging myself, I thought it was incumbent on me to bone up on the Central Committee candidates, especially if any of them are especially good (or bad) people to have on the committee.</p>
<p>Comparing the current Central Committee members (<a href="http://www.howardcountydems.com/ht/d/StaffLeaders/pid/333755">officers</a> and <a href="http://www.howardcountydems.com/ht/d/Staff/pid/333756">others</a>) to the 18 candidates listed on the <a href="http://www.elections.state.md.us/elections/2010/candidates/CountyCandidatesList.aspx?county=2010-1-14">county candidate list</a> and doing some Google searching, it looks like we have the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>Bill Adams.  No useful information online about this candidate.</li>
<li>Diane Banner.  No useful information online about this candidate.</li>
<li>Daniel Besseck.  Currently an alternate Committee member.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://www.stonewalldemocratsmd.org/endorsements">Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland</a>.</li>
<li>Jonathan K. Branch.  Currently an alternate Committee member.  Has a <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/Jonathan-Branch-for-Howard-County-Democratic-Central-Committee/131722430197968">Facebook page</a> and a <a href="http://www.jonathankbranch.com/">campaign web site</a>.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (71% of those voting), the <a href="http://www.jonathankbranch.com/About-Us.html">Columbia Democratic Club</a>, and <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/74378/sigaty-bobo-get-nod-african-americans-howard-county/">African Americans in Howard County</a>.</li>
<li>Carole J. Chase.  Currently a Committee member.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (64% of those voting) and <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/74378/sigaty-bobo-get-nod-african-americans-howard-county/">African Americans in Howard County</a>.</li>
<li>Rich Corkran.  Has a <a href="http://www.richcorkran.com/">web site</a>, but it appears to be for a (presumably abandoned) run for Delegate in District 9A.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (59% of those voting).</li>
<li>Willis E. Gay.  Endorsed by <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/74378/sigaty-bobo-get-nod-african-americans-howard-county/">African Americans in Howard County</a>.</li>
<li>Abby R. Hendrix.  Has a <a href="http://www.abbyhendrix.org/Vote4Abby/Welcome.html">campaign web site</a>.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (64% of those voting) and the <a href="http://www.abbyhendrix.org/Vote4Abby/About_Abby.html">Columbia Democratic Club</a>.</li>
<li>Ethel B. Hill.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (58% of those voting) and <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/74378/sigaty-bobo-get-nod-african-americans-howard-county/">African Americans in Howard County</a>.</li>
<li>Clarence Lam.  Has a <a href="http://www.facebook.com/ClarenceLam2010">Facebook page</a> and <a href="http://clarencelam.com/">campaign web site</a>.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (67% of those voting), the <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeuKBndQQp8">Columbia Democratic Club</a>, the <a href="http://www.stonewalldemocratsmd.org/endorsements">Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland</a> and <a href="http://www.democracyforhoward.com/">Democracy for Howard County</a>.</li>
<li>Jerry Lozupone.  No useful information online about this candidate.</li>
<li>Kathy MacFarlane.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://www.stonewalldemocratsmd.org/endorsements">Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland</a>.</li>
<li>Michael C. A. McPherson.  Currently Chair of the Central Committee.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (71% of those voting) and <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/74378/sigaty-bobo-get-nod-african-americans-howard-county/">African Americans in Howard County</a>.</li>
<li>Ethan Moore.  Currently an alternate Committee member.  Has a <a href="http://www.facebook.com/Vote4Moore">Facebook page</a> and a c<a href="http://www.vote4moore.com/">ampaign web site</a>.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (58% of those voting), the <a href="http://ethanmoore.wordpress.com/2010/07/15/columbia-democratic-club-endorses-ethan-moore/">Columbia Democratic Club</a> (70% of those voting), and the <a href="http://www.stonewalldemocratsmd.org/endorsements">Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland</a>.</li>
<li>Kristen M. Neville.  Currently Corresponding Secretary of the Central Committee.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (68% of those voting) and <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/74378/sigaty-bobo-get-nod-african-americans-howard-county/">African Americans in Howard County</a>.</li>
<li>Deanna Peel.  Endorsed by <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/74378/sigaty-bobo-get-nod-african-americans-howard-county/">African Americans in Howard County</a> and the <a href="http://www.stonewalldemocratsmd.org/endorsements">Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland</a>.</li>
<li>Kevin Treine.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://www.stonewalldemocratsmd.org/endorsements">Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland</a>.</li>
<li>Catherine M. Zomlefer.  Currently Vice Chair of the Central Committee.  Endorsed by the <a href="http://westernhowarddems.com/">Western Howard County Democratic Club</a> (70% of those voting).</li>
</ul>
<p>If any of you out there would like to tell me which candidates I should vote for and why, please add a comment below or <a href="/about/">send me email</a>.  Note that I’ll put the most reliance on recommendations from people I know already, including my fellow bloggers and those who’ve commented previously on my blog.</p>
<p>Some other notes:</p>
<ul>
<li>To the Central Committee candidates: I don’t do political endorsements on this blog, so I’ll be keeping to myself whatever decisions I come to regarding which candidates I’ll vote for.</li>
<li>To Jonathan Branch, Abby Hendrix, Clarence Lam, and Ethan Moore: Thanks for having an actual online campaign presence (and special props to Clarence Lam for actual <a href="http://www.youtube.com/user/drclarence">campaign videos</a>).</li>
<li>To Rich Corkran: Don’t you think it’s time to update that web site?</li>
<li>To Bill Adams, Diane Banner, and Jerry Lozupone: You’re invisible to Google, and thus invisible to me.</li>
<li>To local Democratic activists: I’m sorry, my work and family situation prevents me from participating actively in local Democratic party events.  A blog post every couple of weeks is about as much as I can manage.</li>
<li>To the Western Howard County Democratic Club: Your web site is busted; trying to go directly to the <a href="http://www.westernhowarddems.com/main/2010/08/endorsement_results_by_vote.php">endorsements page</a> gives an error (though the results are still displayed on the main page).</li>
<li>To the Columbia Democratic Club: You have a <a href="http://www.columbiademocraticclub.org/">web site</a> and a <a href="http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=28368235949">Facebook page</a>, and didn’t see fit to use either of them to list whom you endorsed?  (I got my endorsement information from the candidates’ web sites, for those who had one.)</li>
<li>To African Americans in Howard County (the group AAIHC, not every Afri&mdash;you know what I mean): Do you have any actual online presence?  All I ever see of AAIHC is second-hand information from blogs and news stories.</li>
</ul>
<hr>
<h4 id="78d449ba-007"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-09-12 23:21</h4>
<p>Thanks. I know so little about this. The Voters&rsquo; Guide didn&rsquo;t have too much info on this race (understandably as it would take a lot of space). I hadn&rsquo;t heard about any of these candidates, and I had no idea what the Central Committee did. After I got home from voting, I signed up for the Howard County and Columbia Democratic email lists but my voting criteria was 100% based on who had an online presence. I haven&rsquo;t heard of many of these organizations who did endorsements&ndash; probably because I&rsquo;m new here&ndash; but knowing who some of these organizations endorsed would have changed my votes, or at least added the number of folks I voted for. Alas. Hindsight is 20/20. Better luck next time. Thanks for this, though :)</p>
<h4 id="78d449ba-008"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-09-13 01:09</h4>
<p>Sarah, I&rsquo;m sorry I didn&rsquo;t post something like this earlier; I was reminded of this only when I took out my sample ballot to fill it out. I find the relative lack of online information interesting. It&rsquo;s like you&rsquo;re expected to vote for Central Committee members only if you show up for in-person Democratic events. But if that&rsquo;s the case then why allow all Democrats to vote on this? And it&rsquo;s not as if it&rsquo;s just the &ldquo;young guns&rdquo; like Ethan Moore or Clarence Lam who know how to do online stuff. I mean, Jonathan Branch has a decent looking candidate web site and he&rsquo;s 54 years old.</p>
<h4 id="78d449ba-005"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-09-13 12:28</h4>
<p>Ah, but the responsibility isn&rsquo;t necessarily yours, though I do appreciate this rundown :)</p>
<h4 id="78d449ba-004">Jena (jenrmisterka@gmail.com) - 2010-09-13 18:29</h4>
<p>Thank you so much for this info. I have spent days trying to pull together information on each of these candidates. You saved me so much time!</p>
<h4 id="78d449ba-003">andrew stone (andibody@aol.com) - 2010-09-14 02:29</h4>
<p>Thank you!! I was looking for someone who had posted info on the central committee candidates!!! At least I know who the incumbents are.For the first time I will go vote tomorrow, without being totally ignorant about the democratic central committee candidates.</p>
<h4 id="78d449ba-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-09-14 02:33</h4>
<p>Jena and Andrew: As with Sarah, I&rsquo;m glad you found this useful. Again, I really don&rsquo;t know why some local Democratic group doesn&rsquo;t put together a list like this (unless, as I said earlier, there&rsquo;s a bias toward Democrats who can show up at in-person meetings).</p>
<h4 id="78d449ba-011">Jonathan K. Branch (jonbranch@aol.com) - 2010-10-19 17:35</h4>
<p>Just found your blog Mr. Hecker, and I will be following your blog site from now on. Thank you for the insightful views about the HCDCC. Although I didn&rsquo;t consider myself a &ldquo;marginal&rdquo; candidate, I appreciate your observation that the website and Facebook presence may have assisted me in getting the 12th spot. I am very pleased to be a part of this committee, and look forward to serving the Democrats and citizens of Howard County for the next four years.</p>
<h4 id="78d449ba-001"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-10-20 00:30</h4>
<p>Thanks for stopping by and commenting; I&rsquo;m glad you find the blog worth reading. Incidentally, I didn&rsquo;t intend the word &ldquo;marginal&rdquo; as a value judgment on the relative worth of HCDCC candidates; I just meant candidates that were close to the line in terms of being elected or not.</p>
<h4 id="78d449ba-006"><a href="http://JonathanK.BranchforHowardCountyDemocraticCentralCommittee" title="jonbranch@aol.com">Jonathan K Branch</a> - 2010-10-20 01:01</h4>
<p>Understood, and I do appreciate and realize that I was &ldquo;close to the line&rdquo;.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Could Howard County be the Silicon Valley of cybersecurity? Part 3</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-3/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 28 Aug 2010 19:09:36 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-3/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; of this series I essayed some initial (negative) answers to the question of whether Howard County could ever become the “Silicon Valley of cybersecurity.”  In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt; I delved a bit more into the question of whether and how the success of Silicon Valley might be replicable elsewhere, relying heavily on the opinions of &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.paulgraham.com/siliconvalley.html&#34;&gt;Paul Graham&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://measuringmeasures.com/blog/2010/8/9/the-next-silicon-valley.html&#34;&gt;Bradford Cross and Russell Jurney&lt;/a&gt;.  Again my answer was in the negative.  Can the third time (well, actually the fourth time) be the charm?  I don’t want to keep you in suspense, so . . .&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/">part 1</a> of this series I essayed some initial (negative) answers to the question of whether Howard County could ever become the “Silicon Valley of cybersecurity.”  In <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-2/">part 2</a> I delved a bit more into the question of whether and how the success of Silicon Valley might be replicable elsewhere, relying heavily on the opinions of <a href="http://www.paulgraham.com/siliconvalley.html">Paul Graham</a> and <a href="http://measuringmeasures.com/blog/2010/8/9/the-next-silicon-valley.html">Bradford Cross and Russell Jurney</a>.  Again my answer was in the negative.  Can the third time (well, actually the fourth time) be the charm?  I don’t want to keep you in suspense, so . . .</p>
<p>Answer #4: There are some things we could possibly do to improve the prospects (some of which I think would be good ideas anyway), but the bottom line as I see it is that the news is not good regarding Howard County’s ability to become an entrepreneurial haven in the mold of Silicon Valley, be it for cybersecurity or anything else.  Things aren’t necessarily hopeless, but our hope probably lies in a different direction.</p>
<p>Based on Paul Graham’s criteria, if I had to pick a local candidate community for becoming a startup hub, Howard County would be pretty low on the list.  By Graham’s lights Baltimore would be a much better possibility: It has a world-class university in Johns Hopkins (albeit in medicine, not computer science), an intact central city, personality to burn, and in general seems to be much more the kind of place where hip young startup founders might like to congregate.  In fact a few of them are starting to congregate there; check out <a href="http://davetroy.com/">Dave Troy’s blog</a> and the scene at the <a href="http://www.etcbaltimore.com/">ETC</a> and <a href="http://beehivebaltimore.org/">Beehive Baltimore</a> for some early signs of entrepreneurial life.</p>
<p>As I implied in my mention of Johns Hopkins though, medicine, health care, and biotechnology seem to be much more fruitful areas than cybersecurity (or IT in general) for Baltimore and Maryland to focus on, at least in terms of promoting entrepreneurial innovation.  There are already world-class Maryland-based institutions focused on these areas and there are some Maryland firms that have achieved some success.  True innovation in health care is tough because it’s a heavily regulated area and because the presence of third-party payers (i.e., private insurance firms and government insurance programs like Medicare) mean that providers don’t have a truly direct and productive relationship with the end customer.  But it’s at least plausible that Maryland could be successful in this area.</p>
<p>But back to cybersecurity.  To respond to the question in <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/08/taxpayers-unprotected-tpi-fails.html">HoCo Rising’s original post</a>, is there any advice on that subject I could offer Howard County Republicans (or Democrats, for that matter)?  Can government make a positive difference at all?  (Full disclosure: I’m a Democrat, so I’m not unbiased when it comes to this question; however since <em>HoCo Rising</em> was the inspiration for this series of posts I’ll strive to look at things from the other side of the aisle as well.)</p>
<p>There are a number of possibilities, some of which I think are worth trying and some of which are not.  An obvious first possibility is to have government fund startup activity by directly investing in startups.  Dave Troy has proposed <a href="http://davetroy.com/posts/a-new-plan-for-economic-development">exactly this</a>, recommending that Maryland devote $10M of Governor O’Malley’s proposed <a href="http://www.governor.maryland.gov/pressreleases/100622.asp">Invest Maryland</a> initiative to funding IT startups.  Dave’s a smart guy, and we could do a lot worse than taking his advice.  However I agree with Paul Graham’s comments on the ability of government to intelligently make such investments, so I think direct investment as a strategy faces (and should face) a lot of skepticism.</p>
<p>(It’s worth noting here that Graham has proposed an alternative to funding new startups, namely <a href="http://www.paulgraham.com/maybe.html">bribing existing startups to relocate</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Suppose to be on the safe side it would cost a million dollars per startup.  If you could get startups to stick to your town for a million apiece, then for a billion dollars you could bring in a thousand startups.  That probably wouldn’t push you past Silicon Valley itself, but it might get you second place.</p>
<p>For the price of a football stadium, any town that was decent to live in could make itself one of the biggest startup hubs in the world.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As Graham notes, the chances of any city or state actually doing this are essentially zero, but it’s still an interesting thought experiment in economic development.)</p>
<p>The next possibility on the agenda is providing space for cybersecurity companies, either at the low end (like the <a href="http://www.etcbaltimore.com/">ETC</a> in Baltimore) or at the high end (like the <a href="http://www.choosemaryland.org/moveyourbusiness/Pages/ShadyGrove.aspx">Shady Grove Life Sciences Center</a> in Montgomery County).  Personally I think this is unnecessary at the high end and ill-advised at the low end.  As <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/07/me-and-dana.html">Wordbones can tell you</a>, the high end of the cybersecurity real estate market is doing just fine by itself, thank you very much.  At the low end (i.e., brand-new startups) I’m not convinced the demand is there, and even if it were I suspect it could be satisfied by existing spaces.  (I’ve previously proposed using one or more of Columbia’s village centers for this, but as Paul Graham notes in general startups will want to choose their own spaces.)</p>
<p>A third (and for this post at least, the final) possibility is one that has the advantage of not costing the government a dime; in fact, it could even save the government money.  I noted in part 1 of this series that Columbia was home to two of the 75 companies that were finalists in the SC Magazine 2010 awards, <a href="http://www.sourcefire.com/">Sourcefire</a> and <a href="http://www.tenable.com/">Tenable Network Security</a>.  What’s notable about both companies is that their products and services are based on so-called <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-source_software">open source software</a>, namely software whose creators allow it to be freely used, redistributed, and modified by others.  Sourcefire’s business is based on the <a href="http://www.snort.org/">Snort</a> system for detecting and preventing computer network intrusions, and Tenable Network Security’s on the <a href="http://www.nessus.org/">Nessus</a> system for scanning networks for vulnerabilities.</p>
<p>Open source may seem like a very new idea to those previously unfamiliar with it, but it’s actually a return to the early days of computing, when computer hardware vendors provided their customers with the source code to their systems’ operating systems and other utilities, and when government agencies like NASA funded development of major software systems and then released them to the public domain.  Government-funded software development was critical to several major industry areas, including <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputer">supercomputing</a> in general and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer-aided_engineering">computer-aided engineering</a> in particular.</p>
<p>Unfortunately over time this practice has succumbed to the fetishization of “intellectual property” (in this case, copyrights on software and patents on the methods it embodies) as a supposed driver of innovation: that if some form of property rights over information is a good thing (a point with which most informed observers would agree) then maximizing property rights over information must be the best thing of all.  (See <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/39b697dc-b25e-11d9-bcc6-00000e2511c8.html">James Boyle’s comments</a> on how and why this dynamic typically plays out.)</p>
<p>As it happens, in the US government-developed software is actually supposed to be in the public domain, since by law the Federal government can’t hold copyrights in software or anything else.  However there’s a loophole, in that government contractors are often allowed to retain copyright on software they develop with government funding.  This loophole and an increased government emphasis on purchasing “commercial off-the-shelf” (COTS) software have greatly reduced the amount of government-developed software available for others to use and build on.</p>
<p>The nice thing about open source software is that developers can work with it as government employees and contractors, both using the software and helping to develop it, and then can go off and try to build businesses on this same software: selling services to government and commercial customers, creating commercial versions of the software, and so on.  In this way open source software can provide a base for industry innovation.</p>
<p>If Howard County Republicans (or Democrats) are looking for relatively straightforward and low-cost ways to help save the government money and perhaps help create new businesses like Sourcefire and Tenable in the process, I suggest they look at promoting the use and creation of open source software at the local, state, and Federal level.  A good place to start is at the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-source_software">Open Source for America website</a>.  (Note for Republicans: open source and open data are areas that the Obama administration is promoting, so you’ll need to resist the temptation to act in knee-jerk opposition to it.)</p>
<p>Is open source the key to making Howard County another Silicon Valley?  Of course not.  There are still lots of reasons why Howard County’s chances of having an entrepreneurial economy are pretty low.  With respect to cybersecurity in particular, one unique barrier is the closed nature of government cybersecurity efforts.  As Paul Graham notes in <a href="http://www.paulgraham.com/america.html">another essay</a>, one of the things that makes the US relatively more hospitable to startups is its openness to immigration, so that the smartest people in the world can come to America and build great companies.  That’s a pretty tough dynamic to encourage in an economic environment where the price of entry is often US citizenship and a top-secret clearance.</p>
<p>Could this change?  Or is Howard County destined to remain forever economically dependent on government spending as part of “<a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/top-secret-america/">Top Secret America</a>.”  I’ll debate this question with myself in some of my future posts.  For now I’ll leave you with a final comment from Bradford Cross and Russell Jurney:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A better plan than imitation is to reflect on what you are passionate about, what you can do now with your own location, what the advantages and disadvantages are, and start innovating in your own way.  What can your city be world class at?  As Steve Blank says, no successful startup ecosystem was built from local talent.  How can you draw the best talent from all over the world?  . . .</p>
<p>What factors are working in your city’s favor in a particular area more than any other city in the world?  The way to create the next silicon valley is to not try to create the next silicon valley, but to reflect on your city’s passions, circumstances, personality and resources, and then innovate accordingly.</p>
</blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Could Howard County be the Silicon Valley of cybersecurity?  Part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 28 Aug 2010 14:54:35 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; of this article I addressed the question (originally raised by &lt;em&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;/em&gt;, could Howard County be the Silicon Valley of cybersecurity?  My initial answers were no and, yet again, no.  But, Frank, I hear you say, that’s just the way things are now.  Couldn’t we &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hceda.org/&#34;&gt;do something&lt;/a&gt; about this?  So it’s on to . . .&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Answer #3: It’s complicated . . . but expert opinion suggests that the answer is still no.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/">part 1</a> of this article I addressed the question (originally raised by <em><a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/">HoCo Rising</a>)</em>, could Howard County be the Silicon Valley of cybersecurity?  My initial answers were no and, yet again, no.  But, Frank, I hear you say, that’s just the way things are now.  Couldn’t we <a href="http://www.hceda.org/">do something</a> about this?  So it’s on to . . .</p>
<p>Answer #3: It’s complicated . . . but expert opinion suggests that the answer is still no.</p>
<p>Which region will be the “next Silicon Valley” and why is a question that’s brought forth a million answers (<a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=%22next+silicon+valley%22">literally</a>).  Why Silicon Valley exists in its present form, what are the key factors in its success and whether its success is replicable elsewhere are all questions that have been debated ad nauseam.  For purposes of this post I’ll skip all the speculation on where the next Silicon Valley will arise (<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/web/06/07/internet.week.new.york/">New York</a>!  <a href="http://money.cnn.com/video/fortune/2010/05/12/f_bsg_silicon_valley_detroit_energy.fortune/">Detroit</a>!  <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/business/14boulder.html?src=tptw">Boulder</a>!  <a href="http://thenextsiliconvalley.com/articles-reports/education/seven-reasons-europes-next-silicon-valley">Europe</a>!  <a href="http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127742250">China</a>!  <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/37999612/The_Next_Silicon_Valley">Russia</a>!  <a href="http://www.inc.com/articles/2010/05/chile-next-silicon-valley.html">Chile</a>!  <a href="http://davetroy.com/posts/is-silicon-valley-dead">nowhere and everywhere</a>!) and focus on two interesting and (at least superficially) contradictory answers.</p>
<p>The first is the essay “<a href="http://measuringmeasures.com/blog/2010/8/9/the-next-silicon-valley.html">The Next Silicon Valley</a>” by <a href="http://measuringmeasures.com/about/">Bradford Cross</a> and <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/russelljurney">Russell Jurney</a>, two Silicon Valley technologists.  Their essay, which is really a mini-history of Silicon Valley over the last hundred years, resists easy summary.  However one of their key points is that the roots of today’s Silicon Valley run very deep, and that a particular combination of high technology, an egalitarian “startup culture,” and entrepreneurial businesses emerged in the San Francisco bay area very early in the 20th century.  That proto-Silicon Valley was then jump-started by the infusion of massive Federal military spending during World War II and afterward.  a point often overlooked by modern Silicon Valley boosters.  However Silicon Valley eventually found commercial markets for its products and services and outgrew its dependence on Federal spending, to the point where a typical Silicon Valley company today derives at most 5-10% of its revenues from government customers.</p>
<p>According to Cross and Jurney, the path to Silicon Valley’s success was highly dependent on particular historical contingencies, and is apparent only in hindsight.  “No one could have looked at San Francisco or Stanford at the dawning of the 20th century and laid out a reasonable plan to arrive at the economy of today.” That in turn implies that trying to create and implement a rational plan to turn one’s own community into another Silicon Valley is essentially a fool’s errand:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Those circumstances that made the Valley possible are actually difficult or impossible to achieve elsewhere because they require fundamental changes to regional culture.  The culture of the Bay Area arose as a response to its unique situation by the diverse peoples that make up its population.  A plan bent on reproducing Silicon Valley starting at the gold rush of 1849 would be more rational than a plan that attempts to leapfrog into the 1980s.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Well, that’s not very useful advice, is it?  Let’s turn to a second source, the essay “How to be Silicon Valley” by the entrepreneur Paul Graham, co-founder of the Silicon Valley-based <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Graham_%28computer_programmer%29">Y Combinator</a> startup fund.  Unlike Cross and Jurney, Graham seems to offer a simple approach to creating your very own Silicon Valley; however as we’ll see his advice gets progressively more complicated and difficult to follow.</p>
<p>Graham’s basic recipe is quite simple though: There are only two essential ingredients for another Silicon Valley, “rich people and nerds.”  The rich people provide funding (Graham doesn’t think government funding of startups will work: “Bureaucrats by their nature are the exact opposite sort of people from startup investors.  The idea of them making startup investments is comic.”) and the nerds create things.</p>
<p>But wait a minute.  You can’t just start with just any old rich people, you need exactly the right kind.  “Startup investors are a distinct type of rich people.  They tend to have a lot of experience themselves in the technology business.” You also have to be a place where rich people want to live; for example, despite having lots of nerds, Pittsburgh and Ithaca aren’t startup havens because “[the] weather is terrible, particularly in winter, and there’s no interesting old city to make up for it, as there is in Boston.” And then to attract nerds you need at least one world-class university (“It has to be good enough to act as a magnet, drawing the best people from thousands of miles away.  And that means it has to stand up to existing magnets like MIT and Stanford.”) and (as with rich people) that university has to be in a place where nerds want to live.</p>
<p>Where do nerds of all ages and income levels like to live?  “They like well-preserved old neighborhoods instead of cookie-cutter suburbs, and locally-owned shops and restaurants instead of national chains.  . . .  They want to live somewhere with personality.” What does personality mean in this context?  “I think it’s the feeling that each building is the work of a distinct group of people.  A town with personality is one that doesn’t feel mass-produced.” But it has to be the right <em>kind</em> of personality: “What nerds like is the kind of town where people walk around smiling.  . . .  They like cafes instead of clubs; used bookshops instead of fashionable clothing shops; hiking instead of dancing; sunlight instead of tall buildings.  A nerd’s idea of paradise is Berkeley or Boulder.”</p>
<p>Whoa, this is getting complicated.  Is that all?  No, it also has to be a place that attracts young people (“It’s the young nerds who start startups, so it’s those specifically the city has to appeal to.  The startup hubs in the US are all young-feeling towns.  . . .  What you can’t have, if you want to create a silicon valley, is a large, existing population of stodgy people.”) and tolerates odd ideas and odd people (“A place that tolerates oddness in the search for the new is exactly what you want in a startup hub, because economically that’s what startups are.  . . .  A town that gets praised for being ‘solid’ or representing ‘traditional values’ may be a fine place to live, but it’s never going to succeed as a startup hub.”).</p>
<p>Oh, and it has to have a thriving center: “To attract the young, a town must have an intact center.  . . .  My guess is that no city with a dead center could be turned into a startup hub.  Young people don’t want to live in the suburbs.” And they especially don’t want to live in planned communities, suburban or otherwise: “If you want to make a startup hub&mdash;or any town to attract the “creative class”&mdash;you probably have to ban large development projects.  When a large tract has been developed by a single organization, you can always tell.”</p>
<p>Graham ends up working his way into something very like Cross and Jurney’s position that Silicon Valleys can’t be made, they grow out of somewhat unique historical circumstances: “Startups beget startups.  People who work for startups start their own.  People who get rich from startups fund new ones.  I suspect this kind of organic growth is the only way to produce a startup hub, because it’s the only way to grow the expertise you need.  . . .  You need time to grow a silicon valley.” Because he’s a problem solver at heart, Graham doesn’t want to throw up his hands and declare the problem insoluble (“A town that could exert enough pull over the right people could resist and perhaps even surpass Silicon Valley”) but he’s set a pretty high bar for anywhere else that wants to be the next Silicon Valley.</p>
<p>So where does this leave Howard County?  Not in a very good place, I’m afraid.  I’ll come back for a final attempt at an answer in the concluding <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-3/">part 3</a> of this article.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Could Howard County be the Silicon Valley of cybersecurity?  Part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 28 Aug 2010 09:42:57 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In the course of analyzing the &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/08/taxpayers-unprotected-tpi-fails.html&#34;&gt;death of the Taxpayer Protection Initiative&lt;/a&gt; &lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt; implored the Howard County Republican party to focus on more serious activities, and among other things noted: “We need ideas for how to . . .  make Howard County the Silicon Valley of Cyber technology.” By “Cyber technology” I presume HCR meant “cybersecurity,” the sexed-up name for what used to be known as information security, IT security, or computer security.  So that naturally moved me to ask the following question: Is it possible that Howard County could indeed become the Silicon Valley of cybersecurity?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the course of analyzing the <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/08/taxpayers-unprotected-tpi-fails.html">death of the Taxpayer Protection Initiative</a> <em>HoCo Rising</em> implored the Howard County Republican party to focus on more serious activities, and among other things noted: “We need ideas for how to . . .  make Howard County the Silicon Valley of Cyber technology.” By “Cyber technology” I presume HCR meant “cybersecurity,” the sexed-up name for what used to be known as information security, IT security, or computer security.  So that naturally moved me to ask the following question: Is it possible that Howard County could indeed become the Silicon Valley of cybersecurity?</p>
<p>Answer #1: No.</p>
<p>In fact, I’d echo what <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senator,_you%27re_no_Jack_Kennedy">Lloyd Bentsen once said to Dan Quayle</a>: “Howard County, I’ve been to Silicon Valley, I know Silicon Valley, I’ve worked for Silicon Valley companies half my life.  Howard County, you’re no Silicon Valley, and you’re not likely to be the Silicon Valley of anything anytime soon.”</p>
<p>Then I thought, well, that’s rather rude and dismissive, maybe I should be a little more open-minded about this and do some actual investigation of the question.  So on to . . .</p>
<p>Answer #2: No, because there’s already a Silicon Valley of cybersecurity, and (surprise!) it’s Silicon Valley itself.</p>
<p>Here I’m assuming that by a “Silicon Valley” we’re referring to a region where technology innovation is rampant and where that innovation drives a thriving economy of entrepreneurial firms providing technology-based products and services.  In the area of information security specifically we can get a good take on the regions doing the innovating by looking at the companies recognized in the annual awards sponsored by <a href="http://www.scmagazine.com/">SC Magazine</a>, a leading trade magazine for IT security professionals.  I took the <a href="http://www.scmagazineus.com/scawards2010-finalists/section/1309/">list of 2010 award finalists</a>, reworked it into the form of a <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsbOfsoPgoYPdDRxNC01bDNRSS1fN2Vrbzc5MS1tM2c&amp;hl=en">Google Docs spreadsheet</a>, and then created <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsbOfsoPgoYPdFI0eWVBMGg4QUU2Tnl0Rld4R1MxRlE&amp;hl=en">another spreadsheet</a> listing the companies who were finalists, along with each company’s main location(s) and the associated region(s).  (This involved some judgment calls, for example where a company was a semi-autonomous division of another company or had multiple main offices.)</p>
<p>The resulting list includes a wide range of successful and innovative companies in the general information security space, creating and marketing products that range from relatively simple anti-virus and firewall products to complex systems for detecting, analyzing, and rectifying security problems in large enterprise networks.  Of the 75 companies that were finalists, 28, or over a third, were based wholly or partly in Silicon Valley, ten in the Route 128 area around Boston, six in Southern California, five in Texas, and four in Maryland and Northern Virginia (the region all the cool kids are now calling “<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/29/AR2010072905868.html">the DMV</a>”); no other region had more than three.  Locally, two Columbia-based companies were on the list, <a href="http://www.sourcefire.com/">Sourcefire</a> and <a href="http://www.tenable.com/">Tenable Network Security</a>.  (To put this in perspective, both Overland Park, Kansas, and Atlanta, Georgia, also had two companies on the list.)</p>
<p>Clearly anyone looking to create a world-class company providing information security products and services is going to look first at Silicon Valley, and perhaps also at the Route 128 area.  Other regions may each have a few “local champion” companies, but by and large the rest of the world is simply going to be purchasing and using products and services created elsewhere.  My employer (which happens to be an <a href="https://www.ironkey.com/news/sc-magazine-award-2010">SC Magazine 2010 award winner</a>) is no exception: We’re headquartered in Sunnyvale, California, in the heart of Silicon Valley, and have almost all of our employees based there, including all our R&amp;D activities; we have only four people in Maryland and Virginia, all of whom are focused on selling our products to Federal government customers.</p>
<p>So when it comes to commercial cybersecurity technology and IT products and services in general, with only a few minor exceptions we’re in a situation reminiscent of the famous <a href="http://stanglpottery.org/trentonbridge.htm">Trenton, New Jersey, slogan</a>, “Silicon Valley makes, Howard County takes.”</p>
<p>Well, that’s rather a downer.  Frank, can’t you come up with any better answers?  Read the upcoming <a href="/2010/08/28/could-howard-county-be-the-silicon-valley-of-cybersecurity-part-2/">part 2</a> for another take on the question at hand (not that you’ll necessarily find it any more comforting).</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="83d8156a-001"><a href="http://www.wordbones.com" title="wordbones@verizon.net">wordbones</a> - 2010-08-28 17:54</h4>
<p>Frank, True enough. Our ace in the hole for cyber security economic benefit derives solely from the fact that we are the customer, or better stated, the largest customer in the world for cyber security technology resides among us. We may not make it here but we buy it, bring it here and often make it better. Any serious player in this industry has or soon will have, a local presence. And once again, nice post. -wb</p>
<h4 id="83d8156a-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-08-29 13:53</h4>
<p>WB: Thanks for stopping by. I acknowledge that having a major customer is great, my concern is with whether or when that customer turns off the money spigot in future. Silicon Valley has been able to re-invent itself and find new markets; whether the B-W corridor can do that (if it comes to that) is an open question.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>More on same-sex marriage and civic equality</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/14/more-on-same-sex-marriage-and-civic-equality/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 14 Aug 2010 01:28:50 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/14/more-on-same-sex-marriage-and-civic-equality/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Two recent posts by &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/08/governors-race-civic-equality-again.html&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://stevecharing.blogspot.com/2010/08/open-letter-to-governor-martin-omalley.html&#34;&gt;Steve Charing&lt;/a&gt; prompted me to jot down a few thoughts to complement &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/&#34;&gt;my&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-2/&#34;&gt;previous&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/28/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-3/&#34;&gt;posts&lt;/a&gt; on same-sex marriage and civic equality in the context of Howard County and Maryland.  So without further ado, some random comments:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On terminology: In the title of my posts I used the term “civic equality,” not “marriage equality.”  I did some thinking about this, and in the end wanted to emphasize two things: First, the issues here extend beyond the question of marriage to other aspects of personal and family life in which the government is involved.  For example, people should be able to apply to adopt a child or act as foster parents, and be considered on a equal basis with others regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity.  Hence I didn’t want to put the focus solely on marriage.  Second, this is about equality under the law, i.e., our relationship to government as citizens; it’s not about religious strictures or private beliefs.  It’s about civil marriage as established by the state, not about marriage as a religious ceremony and sacrament.  Hence the emphasis on &lt;em&gt;civic&lt;/em&gt; equality.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Two recent posts by <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/08/governors-race-civic-equality-again.html">HoCo Rising</a> and <a href="http://stevecharing.blogspot.com/2010/08/open-letter-to-governor-martin-omalley.html">Steve Charing</a> prompted me to jot down a few thoughts to complement <a href="/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/">my</a> <a href="/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-2/">previous</a> <a href="/2010/07/28/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-3/">posts</a> on same-sex marriage and civic equality in the context of Howard County and Maryland.  So without further ado, some random comments:</p>
<p>On terminology: In the title of my posts I used the term “civic equality,” not “marriage equality.”  I did some thinking about this, and in the end wanted to emphasize two things: First, the issues here extend beyond the question of marriage to other aspects of personal and family life in which the government is involved.  For example, people should be able to apply to adopt a child or act as foster parents, and be considered on a equal basis with others regardless of their sexual orientation or gender identity.  Hence I didn’t want to put the focus solely on marriage.  Second, this is about equality under the law, i.e., our relationship to government as citizens; it’s not about religious strictures or private beliefs.  It’s about civil marriage as established by the state, not about marriage as a religious ceremony and sacrament.  Hence the emphasis on <em>civic</em> equality.</p>
<p>On politicians’ positions on marriage equality: <em>HoCo Rising</em> promises, “Expect a run down of the candidates who oppose civic equality in the coming months.” I thought about doing a follow-up post myself on the various candidates’ positions (both pro and anti), but after doing some initial research gave it up as too much work&mdash;so I’d be glad to see <em>HoCo Rising</em> take up the mantle.  However I did find out a few things:</p>
<p>First, the <a href="http://stonewalldemocratsmd.org/">Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland</a> have done a <a href="http://stonewalldemocratsmd.org/content/stonewall-democrats-central-maryland-pac-announces-endorsements">first round of endorsements</a> of candidates they consider supportive of marriage equality and other LGBT-related issues.  The situation on the other side of the aisle is illustrated by the fact that the Maryland chapter of the <a href="http://online.logcabin.org/">Log Cabin Republicans</a> doesn’t have a working <a href="http://www.mdlcr.org/">web site</a> and apparently hasn’t had one since <a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20070817173548/http://www.mdlcr.org/">2007 or thereabouts</a>.</p>
<p>Second, as <em>HoCo Rising</em> noted, Martin O’Malley was originally opposed to marriage equality and in favor of the “separate but equal” approach of offering civil unions (a position that <a href="http://voices.washingtonpost.com/annapolis/2007/09/post_21.html">didn’t win him any friends</a>).  While not actively endorsing marriage equality (as urged by Steve Charing), acording to a WBAL-TV story O’Malley now says he would sign a marriage equality bill if passed by the legislature.  Of course, the probability of any marriage equality bill getting out committee, much less being passed, is pretty slim, but definitely a move forward by O’Malley.</p>
<p>Third, Bob Ehrlich is (still) opposed to same-sex marriage, and has a somewhat weasel-worded position on civil unions: According to the same story referenced above, “Ehrlich said he supports rights associated with civil unions, and that he recognizes the difference between civil unions and marriage.” I’m not sure exactly what the second part of this means, except possibly that Ehrlich is giving himself some wiggle room to avoid a veto in case the legislature were to pass a civil unions bill.  (“I kept my promise, really I did: I said I would veto same-sex marriage, but this is different!”)  The first part is also obscure, but might mean that Ehrlich is willing to support something beyond just the right not to be kicked out of the hospital room where your same-sex partner lies dying.  (<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/27/AR2010022703041.html">Ehrlich back in February</a>: “I believe that marriage is a union between a man and a woman, but I also have led efforts to give nontraditional couples access to benefits to which I believe they are entitled, such as medical decision-making authority.”)  Does that mean that Ehrlich would support actual civil unions, as opposed to some amorphous package of “rights associated with civil unions”?  Who knows?</p>
<p>HoCo Rising also asked about what <a href="http://www.brianmurphy2010.com/">Brian Murphy</a>’s position on the issue of marriage equality.  This is a really interesting question.  Murphy has an uncompromising (I mean, really uncompromising) position on abortion and is a strong advocate of the right to keep and bear arms with as few restrictions as possible.  So one would also expect he’d be outspoken opponent of same-sex marriage or civil unions, in line with the classic “God, guns, and gays” stereotype of conservative Republicans.  But I haven’t yet found one reference to any position Murphy might have on this topic: nothing on his <a href="http://www.brianmurphy2010.com/pages/issues.shtml">issues page</a> or elsewhere on his web site, nothing in an 15-minute interview he did with WUSA (<a href="http://www.wusa9.com/video/default.aspx?bctid=507105199001#/Politics+and+Elections/Part+1%3A++Raw+Interview+with+Brian+Murphy/46371336001/46407529001/507106723001">part 1</a> and <a href="http://www.wusa9.com/video/default.aspx?bctid=507105199001#/Politics+and+Elections/Part+2%3A+Raw+Interviewwith+Brian+Murphy/46371336001/46407529001/507105185001">part 2</a>), and nothing I could turn up via a fair amount of Google searching.  What if anything might be the meaning of this local version of the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Blaze#Plot_summary">curious incident of the dog in the night-time</a>”?  That leads to my next thought:</p>
<p>The political risk (or lack thereof) in promoting marriage equality.  Steve Charing <a href="http://stevecharing.blogspot.com/2010/08/open-letter-to-governor-martin-omalley.html">recently urged</a> Martin O’Malley to “be on the right side of history” and recommended that “To heighten the chances for re-election, you should declare your support for marriage equality during this campaign.”  Which is what O’Malley (sort of) ended up doing.  O’Malley’s shift, Ehrlich’s waffling, and Murphy’s silence all raise the question: Is there really any political risk anymore in a Maryland politician supporting marriage equality?  Or, to flip the question around, is the window closing in which a Maryland politician has an opportunity to win brownie points for supporting marriage equality?</p>
<p>When I worked at Netscape our CEO, Jim Barksdale, reminded us that one surefire way to succeed was to find a parade and get in front of it.  Regardless of what one might think of Doug Gansler and his effort to have Maryland recognize out-of-state same-sex marriages, I think there’s no denying that his support of marriage equality was a pretty smart political move: He suffered no political fallout whatsoever and is now free to spend the next four years preparing to run for governor, with the support of a key constituency in the Democratic party and a reputation for political leadership.  While Gansler is leading that particular parade, O’Malley has come off the sidewalk and decided to walk alongside the marchers (hoping people will think he was with them all along), Ehrlich is leading a small counter-demonstration (but looking over his shoulder every now and then to check out the floats), and Murphy’s off attending a different event in another part of town.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Requiem for the Taxpayer Protection Initiative</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/09/requiem-for-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 09 Aug 2010 19:49:01 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/08/09/requiem-for-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/bs-md-ho-petition-fails-20100809,0,727902.story&#34;&gt;The Taxpayer Protection Initiative is dead&lt;/a&gt;.  I’ll defer to &lt;em&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/em&gt; (and Trevor) for &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/08/taxpayers-unprotected-tpi-fails.html&#34;&gt;in-depth analysis&lt;/a&gt;, particularly from the viewpoint of fiscal conservatives who think the Howard County Republican party badly misplayed this.  I’ve written &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/&#34;&gt;more&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/23/what-would-the-founders-think-about-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/&#34;&gt;about the&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/12/more-on-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/&#34;&gt;TPI&lt;/a&gt; than I ever meant to or wanted to, but I can’t help but devote a few words to its passing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Maybe I missed something, but I’m really surprised at the lack of apparent attention that was paid to making a serious case for the TPI: why it was needed, what its effects would be, and (most important) how various objections to the TPI could be addressed.  I just looked again at three of the main pro-TPI pages that show up in a Google search, the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.facebook.com/pages/Howard-County-Taxpayer-Protection-Initiative/131239316905886&#34;&gt;TPI Facebook page&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://kittleman.com/taxpayer-protection-initiative/&#34;&gt;Allan Kittleman’s site&lt;/a&gt;, and the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.howardcountygopclub.com/taxpayer-protection-initiative&#34;&gt;Howard County Republican Club site&lt;/a&gt;.  None of them have any extended arguments in favor of the TPI.  (Kittleman’s site does have a TPI FAQ, but it’s about how to sign the petition; it doesn’t address any questions that people might have about the TPI itself.)  It’s as if they just rang the anti-tax bell and expected the electorate to salivate at the prospect.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/bs-md-ho-petition-fails-20100809,0,727902.story">The Taxpayer Protection Initiative is dead</a>.  I’ll defer to <em>HoCo Rising</em> (and Trevor) for <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/08/taxpayers-unprotected-tpi-fails.html">in-depth analysis</a>, particularly from the viewpoint of fiscal conservatives who think the Howard County Republican party badly misplayed this.  I’ve written <a href="/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/">more</a> <a href="/2010/05/23/what-would-the-founders-think-about-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/">about the</a> <a href="/2010/06/12/more-on-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/">TPI</a> than I ever meant to or wanted to, but I can’t help but devote a few words to its passing.</p>
<p>Maybe I missed something, but I’m really surprised at the lack of apparent attention that was paid to making a serious case for the TPI: why it was needed, what its effects would be, and (most important) how various objections to the TPI could be addressed.  I just looked again at three of the main pro-TPI pages that show up in a Google search, the <a href="http://www.facebook.com/pages/Howard-County-Taxpayer-Protection-Initiative/131239316905886">TPI Facebook page</a>, <a href="http://kittleman.com/taxpayer-protection-initiative/">Allan Kittleman’s site</a>, and the <a href="http://www.howardcountygopclub.com/taxpayer-protection-initiative">Howard County Republican Club site</a>.  None of them have any extended arguments in favor of the TPI.  (Kittleman’s site does have a TPI FAQ, but it’s about how to sign the petition; it doesn’t address any questions that people might have about the TPI itself.)  It’s as if they just rang the anti-tax bell and expected the electorate to salivate at the prospect.</p>
<p>I’m especially surprised by the failure of TPI advocates to be aggressive and get out their message early, when they could have had a hope of framing the conversation in a way favorable to their cause.  I remember when I first went online to look for more information about the Taxpayer Protection Initiative, and couldn’t find anything other than the <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-05-10/news/bs-md-ho-taxes-gop-20100510_1_fire-property-tax-taxes-in-howard-county-tax-hikes">original <em>Baltimore Sun</em> story</a>; there was absolutely nothing on the local Republican party sites I looked at.  If the TPI was the key to saving Howard County you’d think they’d have been a tad more diligent about getting the word out.</p>
<p>I’m just a nobody blogger, and I have no pretensions that any of the three thousand or so words I wrote against the TPI had any effect on anybody.  However I do think it’s telling that if you do a <a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=taxpayer+protection+initiative">Google search for “taxpayer protection initiative”</a> my anti-TPI blog posts are the second and third results, and the local pro-TPI sites don’t show up until positions six, seven, and eight.  (The first result is for a California state initiative.)  If you instead <a href="http://www.google.com/search?q=howard+county+taxpayer+protection+initiative">search for “howard county taxpayer protection initiative”</a> then the TPI Facebook page does show up as the top result, but I’m right there at positions three and four, again ahead of Allan Kittleman and the Howard County Republican Club.  Again, not exactly a sign of a movement doing a good job of putting its arguments out there and rebutting those of its opponents.</p>
<p>I could probably think of some more things to say about the TPI and what it says about Howard County Republicans and Howard County politics in general, but to be honest I’m sick of the whole subject.  Throw the dirt on its grave, I’m skipping the wake.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County and civic equality in the 21st century, part 3</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/28/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-3/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 28 Jul 2010 00:04:00 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/28/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-3/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In my previous posts (&lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;) I introduced the topic of same-sex marriage as a civil right, discussed how many gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered (LGBT) people might actually live in Howard County and how many of them might be living as same-sex couples, and concluded that in this particular context Howard County seemed to have no special claim to being more diverse than the rest of the nation or the rest of the state.  In fact, Howard County and Maryland both appear to be below average in terms of the LGBT population and the number of same-sex couples.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my previous posts (<a href="/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/">part 1</a> and <a href="/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-2/">part 2</a>) I introduced the topic of same-sex marriage as a civil right, discussed how many gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered (LGBT) people might actually live in Howard County and how many of them might be living as same-sex couples, and concluded that in this particular context Howard County seemed to have no special claim to being more diverse than the rest of the nation or the rest of the state.  In fact, Howard County and Maryland both appear to be below average in terms of the LGBT population and the number of same-sex couples.</p>
<p>Why is this, and why isn’t Maryland, supposedly one of the most reliably liberal and Democratic of the “blue states,” further down the road toward granting same-sex couples <a href="http://www.equalitymaryland.org/">full equality</a> when it comes to civil marriage?</p>
<p>I’m not going to try to answer the first question, as anything I have to say would be pure speculation.  For example, does it have anything to do with the proximity of DC as an alternative place to live, the structure of Maryland’s economy (e.g., the relative mix of professions), or Maryland’s higher proportion of Federal workers, military personnel, or people with clearances?  I have absolutely no idea, and would welcome informed opinions on the subject.</p>
<p>As to the second question, the most prominent theory, advanced by Aaron Davis in a <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/28/AR2010022803752.html"><em>Washington Post</em> article</a>, is that Maryland is more socially conservative than its record of voting for Democrats would indicate, and that that social conservatism is then magnified by a legislature dominated by long-time career politicians not eager to rock the boat.</p>
<p>In general I’d conclude that Maryland does lead Virginia, but not necessarily by as much as we might think.  To go back to the comparison of same-sex marriage to interracial marriage, it’s worth noting that Maryland and Virginia were the two <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-miscegenation_laws#Origins_in_the_Colonial_Era">original states to enact anti-miscegenation laws</a>, and both kept them in place for almost three centuries.  The only reason Maryland escaped having its law struck down by Loving v. Virginia was because Maryland legislators had seen the writing on the wall and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-miscegenation_laws#Anti-miscegenation_laws_repealed_1948-1967">repealed it a few months earlier</a>.</p>
<p>Steve Charing recently asked “<a href="http://stevecharing.blogspot.com/2010/03/will-our-wedding-bells-ever-ring-in.html">Will our wedding bells ever ring in Maryland?</a>” That’s a question that doesn’t yet have a good answer; however I’m cautiously optimistic.  Although Maryland may not be as far along as we might think in the road to acceptance of same-sex marriage, it may be far enough.  Most notably, supporters of same-sex marriage <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/10/AR2010051004668.html">now have a plurality</a> with respect to opponents (46% to 44%, with 10% on the fence).</p>
<p>While this is not enough support to drive legislative approval of same-sex marriage (or even civil unions), it may well be enough to prevent roll-back of actions like Attorney General <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/24/AR2010022405686.html">Doug Gansler’s opinion</a> in favor of recognition of same-sex marriages performed in other jurisdictions.  In fact, the same poll referenced above showed a clear 55% majority in favor of Gansler’s action, and clearly Gansler’s action proved to be <a href="http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/2010/07/gansler_wins_reelection_by_def.html">no impediment whatsoever</a> to his re-election this fall.  Given that Maryland has at least somewhat of a head start on other states in this regard, and presuming that having Maryland-recognized same-sex married couples in our midst leads to increased familiarity and acceptance on the part of Maryland voters, it may be that support for “home-grown” same-sex marriage may reach a “<a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/gay-marriage-state-by-state-tipping.html">tipping point</a>” sooner rather than later.</p>
<p>If so, will Howard County just ride the wave, or is there anyone out there who’ll play a Jim Rouse-like role in terms of getting out in front on the issue and actively working to make Howard County a preferred destination for same-sex married couples?  As far as our local politicians are concerned, I haven’t had time to completely go through <em>HoCo Rising</em>’s exhaustive <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/07/2010-candidate-list-with-webpages.html">list of candidates’ websites</a> looking for their positions on the matter.  However I’ll note two things:</p>
<p>First, although some local Democrats picked up <a href="http://www.facebook.com/notes/equality-maryland/press-release-equality-maryland-releases-early-endorsements-for-the-2010-primari/409352232426">endorsements from Equality Maryland</a> (Elizabeth Bobo, Edward Kasemeyer, and Frank Turner) I couldn’t find any explicit statements in support of same-sex marriage, civil unions, or other LGBT issues on their web sites.  However Liz Bobo’s site does have a reference to “human rights,” which in this context is presumably the <a href="http://www.hrc.org/">classic euphemism</a> for the issue that dare not speak its name.</p>
<p>On the Republican side, Alan Kittleman apparently believes that the Maryland Republican party should <a href="http://kittleman.com/gops-future-lies-with-economy-not-social-issues/">focus on the economy</a> and go easy on the social issues.  Given the <a href="http://www.gop.com/2008Platform/Values.htm#6">position of the national party</a> and the feelings of Maryland Republicans (<a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/10/AR2010051004668.html">69% of whom oppose same-sex marriage</a>), this almost makes Kittleman a flaming social liberal.  Meanwhile I can’t tell what Gail Bates or Warren Miller think, since on the <a href="http://batesmiller.com/">Bates-Miller campaign web site</a> the “Issues” link doesn’t work.  (Make of that what you will.)</p>
<p>Some of this reticence is understandable; we’re talking about an issue that is controversial and affects only a small number of people, in a time when people are more concerned about the economy and other larger issues.  And as I noted above, with interracial marriage the main players in the legal sphere were the courts, with private entrepreneurs like Jim Rouse playing a positive parallel role in the social and economic spheres.</p>
<p>Will the courts also help bring same-sex marriage to Maryland, with the legislature finally bowing to the inevitable?  Whether and when that will happen remains unknown.  However <del>if</del> it would be a nice instance of historical congruence if full marriage equality came to Maryland by 2017, so that some marriages could be celebrated in Howard County that June, along with the 50th anniversary of Loving v. Virginia and the 50th birthday of Columbia.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-013">HoCo Rising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-07-28 12:40</h4>
<p>Thanks for the link, Frank. That you, also, for thoroughly digesting this incredibly important topic. Well done.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-012">HoCo Rising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-07-28 12:41</h4>
<p>Ugh, &ldquo;that you&rdquo; should be &ldquo;thank you.&rdquo;</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-011"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-07-28 15:06</h4>
<p>Great posts, and very enlightening on a statistical level (shaky as they may be, as you point out). Howard County&rsquo;s not really a hip, happ&rsquo;nin&rsquo; place, so that could account for some of the lack of diversity, but then again, lower than the national average is surprising. I look forward to the next Census results. This is probably the #1 reason why I would hesitate voting for a Republican. Fiscal conservatism is great, and we need it badly, but denying two consenting adults the right to marry (or hell, even enter a civil union) is just wrong, and I have yet to be convinced by any sort of logic to the contrary. Republican candidates might be focusing on fiscal issues, but I need to know what way they&rsquo;ll vote when/if the rubber hits the road, especially if it comes quicker than we think.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-009"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-07-28 21:46</h4>
<p>Thanks in turn for the link back to my post(s). This was an interesting series of posts for me because I found the story behind the data as interesting in many ways as the data itself and its implications.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-010"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-07-28 21:54</h4>
<p>Sarah, thanks for the comment. On the &ldquo;hip, happ’nin’ place&rdquo; hypothesis, note that same-sex unmarried couples are only 0.7% of all households in Baltimore city, half that of DC and Arlington and only slightly more than Montgomery County. So I&rsquo;m not sure this is the entire explanation, at least if we believe the hype that Baltimore is a relatively hip and happening sort of place. I&rsquo;m a registered Democrat, so I&rsquo;ll leave comments about Republican positions on this issue to HoCo Rising; it&rsquo;s really his fight and not mine.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-008"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-07-28 22:35</h4>
<p>Fair enough. I didn&rsquo;t look at the statistics any further than you linked, so that&rsquo;s even more interesting. Thanks.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-007"><a href="http://www.kleinforcouncil.org" title="alan@kleinforcouncil.org">Alan Klein</a> - 2010-07-29 02:38</h4>
<p>As a candidate for Howard County Council in District 4 (West Columbia and Fulton), I am proud to have been endorsed by the Stonewall Democrats of Central Maryland and publicly display that on my web site. From what I know of Delegate Liz Bobo, her long standing vocal support and legislative actions on behalf of civil equality place her fully alongside of me as an ally of the GLBTQ community.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-006"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-07-29 03:36</h4>
<p>Alan: Thanks for stopping by and making your position known. Note that I didn&rsquo;t look at any other websites other than incumbents, and also looked only at candidates for state-level offices, which is why I didn&rsquo;t notice your endorsement by the Stonewall Democrats.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-005">HoCo Rising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-07-29 14:12</h4>
<p>I almost replied the first time I saw Sarah&rsquo;s post about &ldquo;never voting Republican.&rdquo; My honest belief is that civic equality is a conservative plank that goes untended. What is more conservative than the government getting out of the way? In this case, I don&rsquo;t see why the govt. has anything to do with marriage whasoever. Now, the clear reality is that the GOP has branded themselves the &ldquo;family values&rdquo; party by opposing gay marriage (while conveniently silent on divorce). Seeing that gay marriage has not come up for a vote (and isn&rsquo;t necessarily on the horizon), I don&rsquo;t think this issue is reason alone not to vote for a Republican who has other strong attributes. I don&rsquo;t like litmus test issues, but if I were to have one, this would be it (ok, and maybe direct shipping also). The real question for you two Dems is&hellip;would you vote for a Republican if he was for civic equality and his opponent was against? Or would your hand shrivel as you reached for the (R) lever?</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-07-30 01:37</h4>
<p>In general I&rsquo;m a pretty reliable Democratic voter, and it would take a lot to make me vote for a Republican candidate. I don&rsquo;t really do litmus tests, so I wouldn&rsquo;t not vote for a Democrat just because they were opposed to marriage equality &ndash; or vote for a Republican just because they supported it when the Democratic candidate didn&rsquo;t. I&rsquo;d probably look at their overall positions and decide on other grounds, with my giving the Democratic candidate the benefit of the doubt, all other things being equal. For example, in a local context the fact that Alan Kittleman doesn&rsquo;t seem intent on fighting the culture wars is a major plus as far as I&rsquo;m concerned, and puts him up a few notches as a candidate in my eyes. On the other hand, as I understand it he&rsquo;s a big promoter of the Taxpayer Protection Initiative, and given my position on the TPI I just couldn&rsquo;t see supporting him under any likely circumstances.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-003">HoCo Rising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-07-30 13:45</h4>
<p>In reply to Frank, well said. I could see myself voting for a Democrat, but probably not on the basis of a litmus test issue (although I think that is a great topic for a blog post that I may work up [i.e., if civic equality is the civil rights issue of our generation, shouldn&rsquo;t it be a litmus test vote?]). I think political parties play a great role in our Country&rsquo;s problems, but I also recognize that to be without a party normally means you are without a voice. It is sad that our government, the product of incredible intelligence and deliberation, has become a team sport.</p>
<h4 id="dcd5ad02-002"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-07-30 14:52</h4>
<p>Hey, now, wait, I didn&rsquo;t say I would never vote for a Republican. I said it gives me pause&ndash; I would hesitate. That being said, my view is somewhat of a litmus test, but it&rsquo;s often also indicative of which way a candidate will swing on other issues that are important to me as well. Are there Dem candidates that are pro-choice and anti gay-marriage out there? Some of these things go hand in hand.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County and civic equality in the 21st century, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 27 Jul 2010 23:53:10 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I introduced the topic of same-sex marriage as a civil right, only to digress into a discussion of how many gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered (LGBT) people might actually live in Howard County.  Now I’ll return to the question of same-sex marriage, starting with an discussion of how many people in Howard County might be candidates for it (or even already married).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As I noted previously, the US Census Bureau does not create or publish direct estimates of the LGBT population.  However since 1990 the Census Bureau has surveyed the population to determine the number of unmarried partners (in addition to the data that’s always been collected on married couples), and as part of that survey has collected data on the sex of each partner.  This data has in turn been used by &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.law.ucla.edu/williamsinstitute/&#34;&gt;others&lt;/a&gt; to create estimates of the number of same-sex couples as well as the overall LGBT population both &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.law.ucla.edu/williamsinstitute/publications/SameSexCouplesandGLBpopACS.pdf&#34;&gt;nationally&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.law.ucla.edu/williamsinstitute/publications/MarylandCensusSnapshot.pdf&#34;&gt;at a state level&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;sup id=&#34;fnref:1&#34;&gt;&lt;a href=&#34;#fn:1&#34; class=&#34;footnote-ref&#34; role=&#34;doc-noteref&#34;&gt;1&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/sup&gt;&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my <a href="/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/">previous post</a> I introduced the topic of same-sex marriage as a civil right, only to digress into a discussion of how many gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered (LGBT) people might actually live in Howard County.  Now I’ll return to the question of same-sex marriage, starting with an discussion of how many people in Howard County might be candidates for it (or even already married).</p>
<p>As I noted previously, the US Census Bureau does not create or publish direct estimates of the LGBT population.  However since 1990 the Census Bureau has surveyed the population to determine the number of unmarried partners (in addition to the data that’s always been collected on married couples), and as part of that survey has collected data on the sex of each partner.  This data has in turn been used by <a href="http://www.law.ucla.edu/williamsinstitute/">others</a> to create estimates of the number of same-sex couples as well as the overall LGBT population both <a href="http://www.law.ucla.edu/williamsinstitute/publications/SameSexCouplesandGLBpopACS.pdf">nationally</a> and <a href="http://www.law.ucla.edu/williamsinstitute/publications/MarylandCensusSnapshot.pdf">at a state level</a>.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Unfortunately these estimates have been fraught with problems (beyond just the garden-variety statistical problems having to do with limited sample sizes).  In particular the Census estimates of same-sex unmarried partners were historically too high,<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> and more recently the Census survey methodology hasn’t properly accounted for same-sex couples who were in fact married (i.e., in Massachusetts or elsewhere).  The first problem was not properly corrected for until 2008.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup>  The second problem is being addressed in the 2010 census, when for the first time the Census Bureau will generate an official estimate of the number of same-sex couples who consider themselves to be spouses (e.g., married or in a civil union or domestic partnership arrangement).<sup id="fnref:4"><a href="#fn:4" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">4</a></sup></p>
<p>Thus only when the 2010 census results are released will it be possible to get a reasonably clear picture of how many same-sex couples (married or unmarried) exist in the US, Maryland, and Howard County.  In the meantime the best public Census data is from the 2008 American Community Survey, which <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">estimates</a> that 0.5% of all US households consist of same-sex unmarried partners.  Because the ACS estimates are based on only a small sample of the population<sup id="fnref:5"><a href="#fn:5" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">5</a></sup> (about 1% of all households), and because the number of same-sex couples is so small (less than 1% of all households in almost all jurisdictions), using ACS data below the national level is problematic; in many cases the margins of error on the estimates are comparable to the estimates themselves.</p>
<p>However we can get at least a general sense of the relative numbers of same-sex couples in various local jurisdictions by looking at the ACS estimates.  As you might expect, the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=04000US11&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">District of Columbia</a> has lots of same-sex couples (about 1.4% of all households per the ACS).  <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Montgomery County</a> has about half that fraction (about 0.6% of all households), <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Howard County</a> about a third (0.4%), and <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US24021&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Frederick County</a> about a quarter (0.3%).  This is reminiscent of the figures on comparative ethnic diversity in Montgomery, Howard, and Frederick that I discussed in an <a href="/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-1/">earlier post</a>.</p>
<p>Note however that unlike the situation with ethnic diversity, the proportion of same-sex couples in Howard County is actually below the overall national average.  It’s not much below the national average, which makes me think that the total LGBT population of Howard County is closer to the 3% figure than to the sub-1% figure of my range of estimates in the last post.  But it does put paid to the idea that Howard County is a bastion of diversity in this particular context.</p>
<p>Finally, note that the above Maryland counties do have higher proportions of same-sex couples than comparable counties in Virginia: Montgomery County has relatively more same-sex couples than <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US51059&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Fairfax County</a> (0.6% vs. 0.4%), and Howard County relatively more than <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US51107&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Loudoun County</a> (0.4% vs. 0.2%).  At first glance this seems to be consistent with the conventional “blue state vs. red state” narrative: As a supposedly liberal Democratic-leaning state Maryland is presumably a more hospitable place for same-sex couples than a conservative Republican-leaning state like Virginia (where one of the Ten Commandments seems to be “<a href="http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?000+cod+20-45.3">Thou shalt not enter into a marriage-like contract with your same-sex partner</a>”).</p>
<p>But wait a minute: Both <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=04000US24&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Maryland</a> and <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=04000US51&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Virginia</a> have about the same number of same-sex couples, at about 0.4% of all households (slightly under the national average).  In addition, <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=st&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_S1101&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=st&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US51013&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Arlington County</a> has even more same-sex couples than DC, at 1.5% of all households, and thus seems to be more like the part of DC it once was than part of Virginia.</p>
<p>So what’s going on here?  Why isn’t Maryland attracting more same-sex couples than it is?  Why can’t Howard County, that supposed haven of diversity and tolerance, attract relatively more same-sex couples than Maryland as a whole, or the nation as a whole?  And why hasn’t this supposedly ultra-liberal state enacted a same-sex marriage law, or even a law to allow civil unions?  More on that in the <a href="/2010/07/28/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-3/">next and final post</a> in this series.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>Since there are no good direct estimates of the LGBT population at the state level, the estimate of the national LGBT population (as discussed in the previous post) is apportioned into each state based on the percentage of all same-sex couples who reside in that state.  “For example, since nearly 15 percent of same-sex couples live in California, the estimated size of the GLB population in California is approximately 1.3 million (15 percent of 8.8 million GLB people in the US.).”  See page 4 of <a href="http://www.law.ucla.edu/williamsinstitute/publications/SameSexCouplesandGLBpopACS.pdf">Same-sex Couples and the Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual Population: New Estimates from the American Community Survey</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>In many cases mixed-sex married couples responding to the surveys incorrectly entered either their own sex or the sex of their partner, causing them to be incorrectly reclassified as same-sex unmarried partners, under the assumption that a same-sex couple couldn’t possibly be married.  (Or, more charitably, they couldn’t be considered married from a Federal perspective, as a result of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Defense_of_Marriage_Act">Defense of Marriage Act</a>.)  This artificially inflated the estimates for same-sex unmarried partners.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>For a <em>very</em> inside baseball look at this issue, see the Census Bureau paper <a href="http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/files/changes-to-acs-2007-to-2008.pdf">Changes to the American Community Survey between 2007 and 2008 and their Potential Effect on the Estimates of Same-Sex Couple Households</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:4">
<p>See the official <a href="http://2010.census.gov/partners/pdf/factSheet_General_LGBT.pdf">LGBT fact sheet for the 2010 census</a> and the unofficial <a href="http://ourfamiliescount.org/">Our Families Count</a> project to encourage people to properly identify their relationships.&#160;<a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:5">
<p>See the <a href="http://www.prb.org/Articles/2009/2010censustestimony.aspx">congressional testimony</a> by Linda Jacobsen of the independent Population Reference Bureau for an overview of problems with the ACS.  Note that the ACS replaced the census long form, but has a sample size considerably smaller than the long form, even when combining data from multiple years.&#160;<a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County and civic equality in the 21st century, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 27 Jul 2010 23:10:44 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/27/howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In this post (actually the next three posts&amp;mdash;I do run on so) I continue my focus on how the Columbia vision of tolerance and diversity might translate into Howard County as a whole as it moves further into the 21st century.  In a recent post I cited an &lt;a href=&#34;http://thenewvoters.news21.com/mixedrace/columbia-md&#34;&gt;article&lt;/a&gt; on mixed-race couples and multiracial individuals in Columbia.  The article notes that when one mixed-race couple moved to Columbia in 1972 the Supreme Court decision striking down prohibitions on interracial marriage in Virginia and several other states was only five years old.  In fact that decision, &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia&#34;&gt;Loving v. Virginia&lt;/a&gt;, occurred on June 12, 1967, only a few days before Columbia’s dedication ceremony on June 21.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In this post (actually the next three posts&mdash;I do run on so) I continue my focus on how the Columbia vision of tolerance and diversity might translate into Howard County as a whole as it moves further into the 21st century.  In a recent post I cited an <a href="http://thenewvoters.news21.com/mixedrace/columbia-md">article</a> on mixed-race couples and multiracial individuals in Columbia.  The article notes that when one mixed-race couple moved to Columbia in 1972 the Supreme Court decision striking down prohibitions on interracial marriage in Virginia and several other states was only five years old.  In fact that decision, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loving_v._Virginia">Loving v. Virginia</a>, occurred on June 12, 1967, only a few days before Columbia’s dedication ceremony on June 21.</p>
<p>In the context of the 1960s and 70s Rouse and Columbia were thus indeed unusual in their commitment to the cause of equal rights.  How might that commitment to civic equality translate into the 21st century?  <a href="http://www.freedomtomarry.org/blog/entry/voice-for-equality-mildred-loving">According to Mildred Loving</a> herself, one major way is to extend the right of civil marriage to same-sex couples: “I believe all Americans, no matter their race, no matter their sex, no matter their sexual orientation, should have that same freedom to marry.” Diane Brown recently echoed this sentiment in an <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/opinion/69615/diane-brown-marriage-equality/">opinion piece</a> in the <em>Howard County Times</em>.</p>
<p>Like all analogies the analogy between then and now is not perfect, but in general I agree that the fight for marriage equality is as worthy a cause for Columbia and Howard County in the 21st century as the civil rights movement was in the 1960s.  However this is not really a blog post on the arguments for (or against) same-sex marriage.  (You can find lots of the former at the <a href="http://www.freedomtomarry.org/">Freedom to Marry</a> site, and lots of the latter at the <a href="http://www.nationformarriage.org/">National Organization for Marriage</a> site.  You can also find a local perspective on same-sex marriage at <a href="http://www.stevecharing.blogspot.com/">Steve Charing’s <em>OUTspoken</em> blog</a>.)</p>
<p>My goal is rather the same as in some of my other “Howard County in the 21st century” posts, namely to look to census and other data to put the issue into context and (where appropriate) informally test various hypotheses.  In the case of same-sex marriage the types of data that are collected (or not collected, as the case may be) themselves reflect the political controversies around the issue.</p>
<p>To begin with, unlike being African-American, Asian-American, or Hispanic, the Census Bureau (or rather Congress, which ultimately calls the shots here) does not consider gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender to be “census-worthy” categories, and thus does not ask questions or publish data that would allow direct estimates of the national or local <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT">LGBT</a> population to be made.  There’s a <a href="http://www.queerthecensus.org/">campaign</a> to try to change that state of affairs for the 2020 census, but for at least the next few years any LGBT population estimates using census data will have to be indirect at best.  (I’ll discuss this in more detail in my next post.)</p>
<p>In the absence of good census data, the most widely-accepted figures on the overall LGBT population are almost twenty years old, from the <a href="http://cloud9.norc.uchicago.edu/faqs/sex.htm">National Health and Social Life Survey</a> conducted in the early 1990s.  The <a href="http://popcenter.uchicago.edu/data/nhsls.shtml">NHSLS data</a> resulted in an estimate that 4.2% of the US adult population identified as gay, lesbian, or bisexual.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  Another more recent survey showing similar results is the <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg.htm">National Survey of Family Growth</a> conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  In the 2002 survey 4.1% of men and women 18-44 identified themselves as homosexual or bisexual.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>A final figure comes from exit polling conducted for US presidential elections.  CNN reported exit poll data in both <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html">2004</a> and <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p3">2008</a> estimating that 4% of those voting identified as gay, lesbian, or bisexual.  Again, this is consistent with the surveys referenced above, although the exit poll data is somewhat questionable given that (at least in 2008) this particular question was asked in only a few states (see below).</p>
<p>In any case, let’s assume that the LGBT population in the US as a whole is about 4%.  Now let’s turn to the question of more interest to us, namely what’s the estimated LGBT population in Howard County?  Unfortunately the NHSLS and NSFG surveys did not include a breakdown by state, much less county.  However the 2008 exit poll data does include <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MDP00p3">data for Maryland</a>, with an estimate that only 1% of Maryland voters identified as gay, lesbian, or bisexual, well under the estimate for the nation as a whole.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>So, again, what’s the actual percentage for Howard County?  As high as 4% (or even more), as the national surveys would indicate?  Or as low as 1%, as the Maryland exit poll might indicate?  I suspect that the 1% figure may be low, but let’s accept it for now at least as a lower bound.</p>
<p>As a first estimate we can therefore assume that between 1 and 4% of Howard County adults are gay, lesbian, or bisexual.  (In a follow-up post I’ll revisit this estimate.)  What about non-adults, including teens under 18?  My specific interest in this post is same-sex marriage, so my focus is on those members of the LGBT population who are candidates for such.  Per <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ADPTable?_bm=y&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_DP3YR5&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_&amp;-_lang=en&amp;-_sse=on">census estimates</a> 28.0% of Howard County residents are 19 years old or younger, and 20.8% are 14 or younger.  The LGBT population that comprises candidates for same-sex marriage is thus somewhere in the range of less than 1% to 3% of all county residents.[^4]</p>
<p>How does this compare with ethnic minorities in Howard County?  The <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ADPTable?_bm=y&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_DP3YR5&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_&amp;-_lang=en&amp;-_sse=on">same census estimates</a> show that the estimated LGBT population in Howard County is at least roughly comparable to the population of Chinese-Americans (2.3%), Indian-Americans (3.1%), and Korean-Americans (3.5%).</p>
<p>However the visibility of LGBT people and their impact on the county seems much lower than that of these other populations.  Partly of course this is because LGBT Howard County residents don’t actually constitute a visible ethnic minority, but rather can be found in all ethnic groups.  I also suspect that this is because (living in Howard County in the first place) they’re suburbanites just like everyone else.  They may go into Baltimore or DC for the social scene or <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-06-17/entertainment/bs-ae-midnight-column-0618-20100617_1_baltimore-pride-gay-bars-hippo">special events</a>, but for the most part they’re going to live relatively typical low-key suburban lives.</p>
<p>I also suspect that like everyone else a fair proportion of the LGBT population in Howard County is going to want to do typical suburban things like settling down with a partner and raising a family.  I’ll explore that topic further in my <a href="howard-county-and-civic-equality-in-the-21st-century-part-2/">next post</a>.</p>
<p>[^4] In essence I’m assuming for simplicity that 25% of Howard County residents are children not yet old enough to marry, leaving 75% of county residents as candidates for marriage.  If, for example, LGBT individuals are 4% of that 75% adult population then they comprise 4% times 75% or 3% of the total population.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The detailed breakdown for the NHSLS survey was 2.0% gay men, 0.9% lesbians, 0.8% bisexual men, and 0.5% bisexual women.  Note that there was no option in the survey to identify as transgender.  See Table 8.3B on page 311 of <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Social-Organization-Sexuality-Sexual-Practices/dp/0226470202/?tag=frankhecker-20">The Social Organization of Sexuality</a></em>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>In the NSFG survey 2.3% of men 18-44 identified themselves homosexual and 1.8% as bisexual, for a total of 4.1%.  The corresponding figures for women 18-44 were 1.3% and 2.8%, again for a total of 4.1%.  As with the NHSLS survey, there was no option to identify as transgender.  See <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/ad/ad362.pdf">Advance Data No.  362, Tables 12 and 13</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>By comparison 5% of the polled voters identified as gay, lesbian, or bisexual in <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=CAP00p3">California</a> and <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=MAP00p3">Massachusetts</a>, and 3% in <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=ILP00p3">Illinois</a> and <a href="http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=NYP00p3">New York</a>&mdash;the only other states where this question was asked.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County and ethnic diversity in the 21st century, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 10 Jul 2010 18:26:45 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-1/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I looked at the reality of ethnic diversity in Howard County today, and concluded that Howard County is in fact significantly more diverse than its position as a semi-rural Washington/Baltimore suburb might otherwise predict, and that immigration is likely to be the primary driver of increased diversity in Howard in the 21st century.  This would seem to be wholly in the spirit of Columbia’s founding vision, and thus an unadulterated good thing for all concerned.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In my <a href="/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-1/">previous post</a> I looked at the reality of ethnic diversity in Howard County today, and concluded that Howard County is in fact significantly more diverse than its position as a semi-rural Washington/Baltimore suburb might otherwise predict, and that immigration is likely to be the primary driver of increased diversity in Howard in the 21st century.  This would seem to be wholly in the spirit of Columbia’s founding vision, and thus an unadulterated good thing for all concerned.</p>
<p>However I don’t think things are quite that simple.  In particular, part of the Columbia (and, by extension, Howard County) vision is the idea that we live in a place where neighborhoods are real neighborhoods, where people know, like, trust, and work with each other, and where they feel a sense of commitment and belonging to the community they live in.  This sense of “social cohesion and personal investment in the community” is part of what’s referred to as (positive) “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_capital">social capital</a>.”  In a Howard County context social capital is what makes “<a href="http://www.choosecivility.org/">choose civility</a>” a realistic aspiration and not an empty slogan.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, as shown by <a href="http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2007/08/05/the_downside_of_diversity/">recent research</a> by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_D._Putnam">Robert Putnam</a> (of <a href="http://www.bowlingalone.com/">Bowling Alone</a> fame), increased ethnic diversity is associated with lower trust (both between ethnic groups and within them), lower civic participation (as measured by rates of voting, volunteering, etc.), and a general “hunker[ing] down” in which people to some extent withdraw from civic life.  In other words, instead of having a positive impact on social capital (as the standard “diversity is good for us” storyline would suggest), ethnic diversity appears to instead have a negative impact.</p>
<p>One can imagine what people like Pat Buchanan would make of this finding.  (Actually, <a href="http://www.vdare.com/buchanan/070809_putnam.htm">we don’t have to imagine it</a>.)  However Putnam’s thesis is more nuanced and hopeful than that.  His central argument is that ethnic diversity doesn’t come “for free,” it is nonetheless worth pursuing (for a variety of reasons), and we need to actively work to realize its benefits.  (For details see Putnam’s paper, <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.96.9010&amp;rep=rep1&amp;type=pdf">E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and Community in the Twenty-First Century</a>; as <a href="http://www.ssireview.org/opinion/entry/notes_on_robert_putnams_diversity_and_community_in_the_twenty_first_century/">Albert Ruesgas notes</a>, it’s quite readable and well worth reading in its entirety.)</p>
<p>That increased ethnic diversity might negatively affect social capital is plausible from an evolutionary point of view, if people’s willingness to engage in various types of reciprocity first arose within families (per <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kin_selection">kin selection theory</a>) and then was later extended to more extended families, tribes, and larger but still ethnically homogeneous units.  Living in an ethnically diverse environment is a relatively recent phenomenon in evolutionary terms and it would be no surprise if we hadn’t yet fully adapted to it.  In more recent times it’s almost conventional wisdom that ethnically homogeneous countries are able to sustain larger and more comprehensive welfare states (see for example, the Scandinavian countries, Japan, and others).  Presumably this is a function of the populace in these countries having a stronger feeling that “we’re all in this together.”</p>
<p>So why bother trying to make our county (and our country) more diverse?  That something is not “natural,” in the sense that evolution didn’t fully prepare us for it, is no argument against it.  There are a host of things we do that aren’t natural from this point of view, including engaging in agriculture (or manufacturing, or “knowledge work”), reading and writing, and living in cities or suburbs.  We’re not compelled to follow the dictates of biology if there are good reasons for us to live in more diverse societies.</p>
<p>In his paper Putnam advances a number of arguments on this front, most being variants on the claim that immigration and diversity in general increase regional and national creativity and economic growth.  I’m sympathetic to these arguments, especially those related to immigration as a way to maintain a relatively young labor force that can offset the effects of an aging population.  However one can quibble about various aspects of these arguments, and I haven’t yet reached a point where I can sort out the various factors and come to a personal judgment on the matter.  (I may revisit this topic in future.)</p>
<p>Even if the jury is still out on the economic benefits of diversity, economics is not destiny any more than biology is.  A large part of the acceptance and promotion of diversity I think simply comes down to a question of national and personal identity: At the national level the United States has traditionally been a country populated via immigration, with people actively choosing to identify as Americans as opposed to being born into a long-standing ethnic “nation” united by common ancestry, language, and culture.  At a personal level that means that other Americans aren’t necessarily going to look like you (or vice versa), and neither they nor you are any less “real Americans” because of that fact.</p>
<p>At a personal level living in a diverse society can also enter into your own sense of who you are and what your place in society is.  This struck me when I first visited Japan, and more recently when I’ve revisited my home town in Kentucky: After living in the Washington/Baltimore area for many years, and also after spending a lot of time in places like Silicon Valley, being in a more homogeneous social milieu now seems somewhat off-putting to me.  Speaking personally I would now choose to live in a more diverse community, even if there were potential downsides to doing so (just as, for example, many people choose to live in cities even though they’re more crowded and noisy).</p>
<p>So let’s assume that (for whatever reasons) it’s a good thing that Howard County is somewhat ethnically diverse, and let’s also assume that the county’s diversity will continue to grow over time.  If Putnam’s findings are applicable to Howard County (and I have no reason to believe that they’re not) what are their implications for the county?</p>
<p>The first is simply that we need to be realistic about the difficulties inherent in building social capital in a more diverse community, and patient about the time it will take to fully assimilate those who immigrate to the county.  As noted in a recent <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/02/AR2010070204359.html">op-ed by Putnam and Jeb Bush</a> (yes, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeb_Bush">that Jeb Bush</a>), “assimilation has always been slow and contentious, with progress measured not in years but in decades.”</p>
<p>Bush and Putnam give the example of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_American">German-Americans</a>, many of whom remained in German-speaking enclaves throughout the 19th century and didn’t significantly assimilate until the early 20th century.  This hits pretty close to home for me, since my ancestors on both sides migrated from Germany to the Cincinnati area in the middle of the 19th century; over the years Cincinnati supported 176 different German-language newspapers, the most prominent of which didn’t cease publication until the 1960s.</p>
<p>Thus if you’re freaked out by seeing all the signs in Korean along Route 40, or by being in stores and restaurants and listening to conversations you can’t understand, you’d do well to take a deep breath and try to calm yourself down a bit; those signs and those conversations are probably going to be there for quite a while.</p>
<p>The second implication is that decreased social capital combined with the ongoing slowdown in the national and regional economy will make it increasingly difficult to muster support for government spending intended to improve overall social welfare.  This is not just a question of people asking “Why are you taxing <em>us</em> to do things for <em>them</em>?” Recall that Putnam found that increased diversity was correlated with decreased trust even among members of the same ethnic group.  Thus it’s also a matter of people being more likely to ask, “Why are you taxing us, <em>period</em>?”</p>
<p>This is why although I’d be considered reasonably “liberal” when it comes to questions of social justice, I also believe strongly that government should exercise fiscal prudence wherever possible; otherwise it risks losing its legitimacy and endangering its ability to provide for the common good at exactly those times when providing for the common good is most necessary.  We’ve seen this scenario play out in places like California, and we may end up with another <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/29/AR2010052903132.html">example in our own backyard</a>.  If indiscriminate anti-tax and anti-government sentiment then combines with extreme nativism (a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing">phenomenon not exactly unknown</a> in American history) the result could prove especially noxious.</p>
<p>Another implication is that we should consider having an open civic conversation about an “immigration strategy” for the county.  As with economic growth, some immigration happens for reasons that are beyond our local power to affect.  However there are other cases where we may be able to help shape future immigration, through activities analogous to those employed by economic development agencies.  For example, do we want to encourage immigrants with particular skill sets to move to the county?  Do we want to encourage immigrants from certain countries?  These are questions worth discussing, and questions I may return to in a future post.</p>
<p>The final implication is that those of us who feel positively about ethnic diversity and growing Howard County via immigration need to do what we can to help fully integrate newcomers into the community and rebuild depleted social capital.  Bush and Putnam provide an overview of some ways to do this, tilted toward things that can be done by government (e.g., through social services, the school system, etc.) or third sector organizations like <a href="http://www.firnonline.org/about.html">FIRN</a>, the various ethnic community associations, and others.</p>
<p>However at its heart social capital is created by person-to-person interactions, and so individual initiatives are key.  Some people will play an outsized role in that, like the <a href="http://www.ethanzuckerman.com/blog/2008/12/05/bridgeblogger-and-xenophile-a-tale-of-two-bloggers/">“bridge figures” and “xenophiles”</a> that blogger Ethan Zuckerman has written about.  (As Zuckerman puts it, “Bridge figures build bridges between cultures, and xenophiles walk across them.”)  As for the rest of us, even the most mundane actions can have meaning; for example, <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/2010/05/we-need-red-pearls-chinese-menu.html">translating a restaurant’s Chinese menu</a> may seem trivial, but if it helps more people experience the authentic food that’s part of a group’s culture then that’s a step forward worth taking.</p>
<p>In the end the old adage holds true: There is no free lunch, and if you want something you’re going to have to work for it.  Building a new community that could at least partially transcend historical divisions of race in America was worthy work for the pioneers of Columbia.  Extending that community to include people who arrive here from the four corners of the earth will be worthy work for those of us who live in Howard County at the dawn of the 21st century.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="83bcf8d8-001"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-07-12 13:02</h4>
<p>Excellent post(s), as usual. Diversity is similar to public transit&ndash; people like it in theory, not so much in practice. (See: Baltimore City residents who &ldquo;love the diversity of Baltimore&rdquo; as they live on almost exclusively white- or black- populated blocks.) I also believe that working at &ldquo;it&rdquo; is worth it. When we touched on Putnam&rsquo;s research on this a few years back in grad school, some students were surprised with Putnam&rsquo;s reluctant conclusions, but my childhood (I&rsquo;m a half-second-generation immigrant) reflected them very accurately. It&rsquo;s too long to get into here, but I might spin off on my blog with it.</p>
<h4 id="83bcf8d8-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-07-12 16:33</h4>
<p>Sarah, thanks for the comment. I&rsquo;d love to see you blog about this general topic.</p>
<h4 id="83bcf8d8-004"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-07-12 22:24</h4>
<p>excellent post, (as usual), to quote sarah. ;-)</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County and ethnic diversity in the 21st century, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 10 Jul 2010 10:03:55 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Continuing my series on Howard County in the 21st century, in my next two posts I address the question of ethnic diversity.  As described in an &lt;a href=&#34;http://thenewvoters.news21.com/mixedrace/columbia-md&#34;&gt;article on Columbia&lt;/a&gt; published by the News 21 project, promotion of ethnic diversity was part of the Columbia founding vision:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;“Simply stated, we are “color-blind,”” [Jim Rouse] wrote in a 1967 memo to Columbia developers.  “This means that every person or family coming to Columbia to seek a lot, an apartment, a house; to start a business; to play golf, tennis, ride horseback, sail, swim, or use any other facility open to the public will be treated alike regardless of whether the color of his skin is white, black, brown or yellow.”&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Continuing my series on Howard County in the 21st century, in my next two posts I address the question of ethnic diversity.  As described in an <a href="http://thenewvoters.news21.com/mixedrace/columbia-md">article on Columbia</a> published by the News 21 project, promotion of ethnic diversity was part of the Columbia founding vision:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“Simply stated, we are “color-blind,”” [Jim Rouse] wrote in a 1967 memo to Columbia developers.  “This means that every person or family coming to Columbia to seek a lot, an apartment, a house; to start a business; to play golf, tennis, ride horseback, sail, swim, or use any other facility open to the public will be treated alike regardless of whether the color of his skin is white, black, brown or yellow.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>As the article notes, given the state of the country at the time this commitment to diversity and tolerance was worthy of note.  But how might this translate to the 21st century?</p>
<p>Let’s do a reality check against the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ADPTable?_bm=y&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_DP3YR5&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_&amp;-_lang=en&amp;-_sse=on">census data</a>.  The main categories I’ll look at are African-Americans, Asian-Americans, multiracial persons, and Hispanics (who may be of any race&mdash;the Census Bureau treats this as a cultural and not racial category).  These groups form 16.6%, 11.2%, 2.7%, and 4.7% of Howard County’s population respectively, or over a third of the total population assuming minimal overlap in the groups.</p>
<p>(Note that you can’t necessarily just add the numbers due to the potential for double-counting; e.g., someone could identify as both African-American and Hispanic, or as both African-American and multiracial.  I’ve attempted to minimize overlap by counting as African-Americans and Asian-Americans only those identifying themselves as being of one race.  Note also that these numbers are lower than the numbers in the article quoted above, although they apparently used similar census data.  At least part of this discrepancy is probably due to my using figures for Howard County as a whole as opposed to just Columbia, and another part due to my using the lower “single race” figures for African- and Asian-Americans.)</p>
<p>We could compare these numbers to the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ADPTable?_bm=y&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_DP3YR5&amp;-geo_id=01000US&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_&amp;-_lang=en&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-format=">figures for the US</a> as a whole (12.3% African-American, 4.4% Asian-American, 2.2% multiracial, and 15.1% Hispanic), but I think a more useful comparison is with other local jurisdictions.  For example, if we look at the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ADPTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=adp&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_DP3YR5&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_&amp;-tree_id=3308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US24031&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">comparable census data</a> for Montgomery County we see that African-Americans make up 16.1% of the population, Asian-Americans 13.1%, multiracial persons 2.4%, and Hispanics 14.4%.  Howard and Montgomery thus have similar diversity with respect to the non-Hispanic population, with Montgomery being more diverse with Hispanics included in the mix.</p>
<p>However a better comparison is probably with Frederick County, like Howard a semi-rural county adjacent to Montgomery and tied to the Washington-Baltimore regional economy.  According to <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ADPTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=adp&amp;-qr_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_DP3YR5&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_3YR_G00_&amp;-tree_id=3308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US24021&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">its census data</a> Frederick County’s proportion of African-Americans is half of Howard’s (8.3% vs. 16.6%), its proportion of Asian-Americans a third of Howard’s (3.6% vs. 11.2%), and its proportion of multiracial persons two-thirds of Howard’s (1.8% vs. 2.7%); however Frederick County’s proportion of Hispanics is somewhat higher than Howard’s (5.6% vs. 4.7%).</p>
<p>So the image of Howard County as a relatively diverse jurisdiction appears to be at least somewhat true: relative to a similarly situated suburban county Howard County has a much higher proportion of both African-Americans and Asian-Americans.  The former is presumably due in large part to the relatively welcoming environment Columbia offered African-American and mixed-race couples beginning in the 1960s, and the latter due to multiple waves of immigration from Korea, China, Taiwan, India, and other countries beginning in the 1970s and continuing through today.  (The report <a href="http://www.firnonline.org/FIRNDoc/FIRN%20Foreign-born%20Study%20%20Oct%2006.pdf">Howard County’s Foreign-born Community: Dimensions, Growth and Implications</a> discusses immigration to Howard County in more depth.)</p>
<p>Looking back at the data from the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/QTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=qt&amp;-qr_name=DEC_1990_STF1_DP1&amp;-ds_name=DEC_1990_STF1_&amp;-CONTEXT=qt&amp;-tree_id=100&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-all_geo_types=N&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en&amp;-SubjectID=17416708">1990 census</a>, we see that Howard County’s African-American population has grown relatively slowly (from 14.1% in 1990 to 18.0% today) while the Asian-American and Hispanic populations have about doubled (from 5.2% in 1990 to 12.2% today for Asian-Americans, and from 2.4% to 4.7% for Hispanics).  (Note that the multiracial category was not added until the 2000 census, so in order to compare the 1990 values to the 2006&ndash;2008 values I am here counting as African-American and Asian-American those individuals who identified themselves as being multiracial in addition to being African- or Asian-American.)</p>
<p>Immigration thus now seems to be the primary driver of increased diversity in Howard County.  This changing face of the county is reflected on the cover of the most recent issue of <a href="http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/sheridan/howardlife_2010/#/1/OnePage">Howard Life magazine</a>, a promotional publication put out by <a href="http://www.howardcountymd.gov/hct/hct_homepage.htm">Howard County Tourism</a>.  Tourism brochures reflect not only how we wish others to see us, but also how we wish to see ourselves.  Here Howard County portrays itself as a place where a <a href="http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/sheridan/howardlife_2010/#/6/OnePage">Korean-American couple can find success</a> as professionals and small-business owners, and with their daughter can enjoy the best that Columbia and Ellicott City have to offer.  Per the magazine they love living in Howard County, and we’re glad they do.</p>
<p>So, this is all good, and we can continue marching into the 21st century as one big happy diverse family, with our only concern being keeping track of our <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/">expanded ethnic restaurant options</a>.  Right?  I’ll come back to that question in my <a href="/2010/07/10/howard-county-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-21st-century-part-2/">next post</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Why does Howard County have an elected school board?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/20/why-does-howard-county-have-an-elected-school-board/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 20 Jun 2010 09:23:33 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/20/why-does-howard-county-have-an-elected-school-board/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I’m taking a brief break from my series on Howard County in the 21st century to pick up a topic I commented on some time ago at &lt;a href=&#34;http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2010/03/in-favor-of-elected-school-board-members.html&#34;&gt;53 Beers on Tap&lt;/a&gt;, namely why does Howard County have an elected school board?  I don’t mean, what’s the history behind why school boards exist in their present form; rather I mean, what purpose does it serve to elect a school board, rather than simply having an appointed board or no board at all (i.e., just an appointed school superintendent)?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m taking a brief break from my series on Howard County in the 21st century to pick up a topic I commented on some time ago at <a href="http://53beersontap.typepad.com/53beers/2010/03/in-favor-of-elected-school-board-members.html">53 Beers on Tap</a>, namely why does Howard County have an elected school board?  I don’t mean, what’s the history behind why school boards exist in their present form; rather I mean, what purpose does it serve to elect a school board, rather than simply having an appointed board or no board at all (i.e., just an appointed school superintendent)?</p>
<p>I was reminded of this topic when <em>HoCo Rising</em> <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/06/leisure-suit-larry-saturday-links.html">commented on</a> (but forgot to link to) a <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/bs-ho-thalheimer-20100617,0,3243551.story"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> article</a> on David Thalheimer and his candidacy to the Howard County Board of Education.  So I thought it was worth revisiting the subject (and of course recycling my comments saves me from having to write a post from scratch).</p>
<p>53 Beers on Tap’s arguments for an elected school board basically boiled down to the following:</p>
<ul>
<li>“Appointed positions equate to political patronage. . . .”</li>
<li>“Elected school board positions allow an opportunity for contrary and/or innovate ideas in education to come to the forefront.”</li>
</ul>
<p>In response to the first point, one could also argue that elected positions equate to political pandering and special-interest tinkering.  (For example, witness the various instances of right-wing school board members trying to introduce “intelligent design” into biology classes, or analogous behavior on the left-wing side.)</p>
<p>In response to the second point, by this logic we should elect every key county position&mdash;chiefs of police and fire departments, heads of public works and parks and recreation, and so on&mdash;in order to “allow an opportunity for contrary and/or innovate ideas . . . to come to the forefront” with respect to policing, fire prevention, recycling, parks, and so on.  But that way lies madness.  The fact is that we as taxpayers are paying taxes to fund an overall set of county services, and I think it makes sense to have a single point of accountability (in the form of the county executive) for making sure those funds are spent wisely and effectively.  Most voters, including me, do not have the time, energy, or background to make an informed decision on each and every elected position, which means that in practice the more secondary elected positions like school board will end up being decided by a minority of voters that is not necessarily representative of voters as a whole.</p>
<p>If we want innovation in education, then I suspect a more realistic approach is to put in place an overall framework by which decentralized innovation can occur at the level of individual schools, e.g., through magnet schools within the traditional public system, charter schools outside the public system, or even at the level of individual students, e.g., homeschooling options, online options (like <a href="http://www.flvs.net/">Florida Virtual School</a>), etc.  I think the chances of a good framework for innovation being put into place are better if it’s attempted by a single elected official with an overall mandate (again, the county executive) rather than by a multi-person school board that is vulnerable to being overly-politicized, split between uncooperative factions, and micro-managing the school superintendent.</p>
<p>Now, having said this, it’s worth giving some space to opposing views that I found in a quick Google search.  For example, the <a href="http://acluva.org/315/why-we-have-and-should-have-elected-school-boards-in-virginia/">Virginia ACLU advocates elected school boards</a> based on the general principle that “the more democracy, the better” and also based on the historical use of appointed school boards in Virginia to institute and reinforce racially discriminatory policies.</p>
<p>The first point I’ve addressed above.  The second point echoes <a href="http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/education/article_fe0a13a2-58c1-11df-9e5f-001cc4c03286.html">controversies elsewhere</a> about whether electing school boards at large (rather than by district) unfairly deprives minorities of representation on the board.  The Viriginia ACLU argument presumes that such policies of discrimination are still active, and an elected school board is needed to counter them.  Is this really the case in Howard County?</p>
<p>Closer to home, in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> Gregory Kane has claimed that an <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/bal-md.kane18feb18001642,0,3838996.column">elected school board will provide greater accountability</a>.  But again, why can’t that accountability reside in a mayor or county executive?  Secretary of Education Arne Duncan <a href="http://www.asbj.com/MainMenuCategory/Archive/2009/October/Education-Secretary-Arne-Duncan-The-Importance-of-Board-and-Mayor-Partnerships.aspx?DID=273445">seems to agree</a>, particularly with regard to large urban school systems like Baltimore city’s:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I saw firsthand that a mayor’s influence over a troubled big-city district can be a powerful tonic for the local economy and for school reform.  . . .</p>
<p>In troubled big-city districts, capable and committed mayors often are better-situated than a school board operating as a solo entity to challenge the status quo and push for transformational reform.  Mayors can facilitate the cradle-to-career health and social service networks that support student learning.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Duncan doesn’t blame elected school boards as the root cause of problems in education, but he also doesn’t uncritically accept arguments in favor of them:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Elected boards are not the cause of the failures of urban school systems.  Yet too many big-city districts today suffer from frequent turnover of superintendents, school boards dominated by adult interests, and pass-the-buck blame games for stagnant or failing student performance.</p>
<p>To be sure, the vast majority of school systems today still have elected boards&mdash;and most work fine.  A well-run school board that works cooperatively with a good superintendent can do a great deal to boost student learning.  Upwards of 95 percent of the nation’s 14,500 school districts currently are managed by elected school boards&mdash;a fact that is not going to change anytime soon.  . . .</p>
<p>Yet if speculation about the obsolescence of elected school boards is exaggerated, it is also the case that boards cannot continue to blindly contend that they are simply misunderstood institutions who are the ultimate arbiters of participatory, grassroots democracy.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Duncan goes on to review the history of why and how school boards came to be elected.  Like voter ballot initiatives and forms of direct democracy, elected school boards gained prominence as an element in the Progressive movement’s fight against control of government by corrupt elements, and <a href="/2010/05/23/what-would-the-founders-think-about-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/">like ballot initiatives</a>, have since given rise to their own set of problems.</p>
<p>Duncan concludes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Mayoral control is not the solution to the woes of big-city school districts, any more than elected school boards are the cause of urban ills.  But it can be a critical first step to overhauling a failed status quo.</p>
<p>Mayoral partnerships with school boards have shown great promise in the last decade.  I hope more mayors opt for this approach in struggling big-city districts like Los Angeles, Milwaukee, and Detroit.  Turning schools over to the mayor is by no means the sole prescription for reforming large urban districts.  But continuing the fickle tinkering of the past is a step backwards.  Our children in failing urban schools deserve better.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Howard County obviously is not in the position of a Baltimore city or Washington DC where things have gotten so bad that radical reform of the school system is seen as the only way forward.  However even if things seem to be going relatively well with Howard County schools I think it’s still worth looking at these typically unexamined assumptions about how the school system should be governed, especially as we head into an era of fiscal turbulence that will put a strain on the system as it’s evolved thus far.</p>
<p>Your thoughts?</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="77f7cf40-001">Roy Appletree (apples1130@gmail.com) - 2010-06-20 17:06</h4>
<p>One additional factor with our elected School Board model is that there is no direct accountability for taxation. Growing up in Pennyslvania, I thought that the concepts of &ldquo;school district&rdquo; and &ldquo;millage rate&rdquo; went hand in hand. The HCPSS consumes over 50% of our taxes. Are the checks on spending appropriate? Are the incentives for program accountabilty sufficient? What about the dynamics of major interest groups supporting education? We do have a good school system that is well administered. However, the macro dynamics of &ldquo;representation without taxation&rdquo; can be very real.</p>
<h4 id="77f7cf40-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-20 18:15</h4>
<p>Roy: Thanks for your comment. I&rsquo;m not very knowledgeable about the intricacies of school system funding in Howard County, so I appreciate any insight you and others can provide.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County and economic inclusivity in the 21st century</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/19/howard-county-and-economic-inclusivity-in-the-21st-century/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 19 Jun 2010 18:23:09 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/19/howard-county-and-economic-inclusivity-in-the-21st-century/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/09/howard-county-and-the-21st-century-suburb/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I discussed how Howard County and Columbia could be “better suburbs,” not by the standards of the 1960s and 70s but by the standards of today and years to come.  In my next few posts in this series I’ll consider whether and how the traditionally heralded Columbia virtues of diversity, tolerance, and inclusivity might translate into 21st century terms.  This post addresses economic diversity, i.e., the relative balance between low-income, middle-income, and high-income households, and Howard County’s inclusivity toward families of modest means.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a <a href="/2010/06/09/howard-county-and-the-21st-century-suburb/">previous post</a> I discussed how Howard County and Columbia could be “better suburbs,” not by the standards of the 1960s and 70s but by the standards of today and years to come.  In my next few posts in this series I’ll consider whether and how the traditionally heralded Columbia virtues of diversity, tolerance, and inclusivity might translate into 21st century terms.  This post addresses economic diversity, i.e., the relative balance between low-income, middle-income, and high-income households, and Howard County’s inclusivity toward families of modest means.</p>
<p>I previously blogged about <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/">income inequality in Howard County</a>.  The takeaway from those posts is that Howard County has less income inequality than the US as a whole, a status it shares with several other Washington area jurisdictions; this isn’t really a result of the “Columbia vision” but is simply a consequence of Howard County’s geographical location in an area flush with Federal spending.</p>
<p>However although Howard County didn’t do anything special to get into this position, we can certainly discuss where the county could or should go from here.  One question of particular interest (at least to me) is whether Howard County’s low income inequality is also a function of the difficulty that low-income families have in affording life here.  In other words, is the high cost of living in Howard County in effect removing a whole stratum of society from the income inequality calculations?</p>
<p>For example, per the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G2000_B19083&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-geo_id=05000US24031&amp;-geo_id=05000US24510&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">2008 American Community Survey estimates</a> Howard County has a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient">Gini coefficient</a> of only 0.38 compared to 0.45 for Montgomery County.  (By comparison Baltimore city has an estimated Gini coefficient of 0.50.)  Given that the two counties have relatively similar economies, this difference is possibly at least partly attributable to the presence of concentrations of lower-income families around Silver Spring and elsewhere in Montgomery.</p>
<p>If true, this means that although Howard County has a lower degree of income inequality it may be no more egalitarian in outlook than Montgomery County, and may in fact be less so; as an apposite <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#Problems_in_using_the_Gini_coefficient">quote from Wikipedia</a> notes:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Care should be taken in using the Gini coefficient as a measure of egalitarianism, as it is properly a measure of income dispersion.  For example, if two equally egalitarian countries pursue different immigration policies, the country accepting [a] higher proportion of low-income or impoverished migrants will be assessed as less equal (gain a higher Gini coefficient).</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For “country” we can here substitute county and for “immigration” inward migration in general (including from other counties and states), and thus capture what’s possibly going on.</p>
<p>The Census Bureau’s <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2008_1YR_G2000_B19080&amp;-tree_id=308&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-geo_id=05000US24031&amp;-geo_id=05000US24510&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">more detailed data on household income</a> lend some support to the above hypothesis.  The highest-earning households in the bottom 20% (first quintile) in Montgomery earn about 15% less than the comparable households in Howard.  This gap shrinks as we move up the income scale, until we reach the highest earning households in the bottom 80%, whose household incomes in Howard vs. Montgomery are almost identical.</p>
<p>Above that point Montgomery County moves ahead (as it were), so that the lowest earning households in the top 5% of households in Montgomery have household income about 11% higher than the corresponding households in Howard.  (Note however that this result is a bit shaky due to the very high margin of error for the Howard County estimate.)  So the broad middle classes in both counties (second through fourth quintiles) appear to be approximately equally well off, with Montgomery appearing to have relatively more poverty at the low end of the income scale and (possibly) relatively more affluence at the top end.</p>
<p>So, is Howard County hosting its “fair share” of the low-income population of Maryland and, if not, should we be doing more?</p>
<p>To answer the first question: The poverty rate in Howard County (i.e., the number of people living below the poverty line) is 4.3% (from <a href="http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/24/24027.html">census data</a>), while the poverty rate in Montgomery County is 5.8% (from the same <a href="http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/24/24031.html">data source</a>).  The <a href="http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/24/24510.html">same source</a> has the poverty rate for Baltimore City at 19.2%, and that for Maryland as a whole at 8.2%.</p>
<p>Let’s leave aside the exact poverty rates (which depend on how exactly one defines “poverty”&mdash;a subject of <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-laracy/criticisms-of-an-improved_b_607516.html">some controversy</a>) and look at the poverty rate in Howard County relative to other nearby jurisdictions and to Maryland as a whole.  If we couch this as a “fair share” issue then we would conclude that Howard County is not pulling its weight in terms of housing lower-income families: In percentage terms it has about half as many lower-income people as Maryland overall, about 25% less than Montgomery, and a whopping four to five times less than Baltimore city.</p>
<p>Should we be doing more to make it possible for lower-income families to live in Howard County?  I think it’s natural to want to answer “yes,” but in practice I think there are limits to the extent to which we could do this.  In particular the suburban nature of Howard County means that it’s difficult to live and (especially) work here without having a car; this imposes a cost burden that many families aren’t able to bear, especially if multiple members of the household need to work in order to make ends meet, and thus need multiple vehicles.</p>
<p>As <em>HoCo Rising</em> <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/06/flying-by-thursday-links.html">recently noted</a>, “mass transit is the best “social program” that can be implemented to raise the position of the poor and under-privileged.  It enables people to get to work at low cost, which is often a prohibition to finding work in the first place.” Unfortunately Howard County doesn’t have true mass transit now, and quite possibly will never have it.  Certainly Howard will never be able to match the mass transit possibilities of Montgomery County, where lower-income workers have comparatively easy access to a much wider variety of employment opportunities in and around DC.</p>
<p>I am therefore skeptical of both the feasibility and desirability of making Howard County a haven for a population of lower-income families much larger than that already present in the county.  It does such families no favor to be stuck in a location where they’re cut off from employment and other opportunities due to lack of adequate transportation options and thus are socially isolated from their fellow county residents.  As I noted in my “21st century suburb” post, I think a better approach is to make sure that the county has a suitable set of affordable neighborhoods that working families of modest but not minimal means can realistically aspire to live in, and a range of employment opportunities to help make that possible.</p>
<p>This doesn’t mean that every family will be able to (or should be able to) live in every neighborhood in Howard County, but every family willing and able to make the effort should be able to live in a neighborhood that feels like Howard County and partake of what the county has to offer.  That includes having access to a school system with a level of funding that allows it to continue its relative level of excellence (a point I addressed in my previous post), and access to employment opportunities that can support at least a lower middle class existence (a point I’ll address in a future post).</p>
<p>As for improving the lives of the truly poor (those whose incomes can’t stretch far enough to support residing in the suburbs), I think that will be best done by improving employment prospects and educational opportunities in the center cities, and better integrating their poorer sections into the overall regional economy.  I don’t have any solid ideas to offer here, so I’ll refrain from making any facile comments.  However to the extent that government funding can help (which is probably somewhat but certainly not totally) I think it’s perfectly consistent with my own sense of social justice to have my state and Federal taxes supporting that effort.  If we can’t make it possible for some of our fellow Marylanders to live in Howard County, we can at least try to help them out where they are.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="a8850cc0-002">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-06-20 11:43</h4>
<p>My goodness, Frank, what an effort! I&rsquo;m not sure I can get my head around all of the ideas identified in your post, but that won&rsquo;t stop me from responding - of course. Your initial suggestion that Columbia may not be as utopian as we would like to believe will rattle many people&rsquo;s beliefs of what Columbia is. On the other hand, it is a loud statement that Columbia is, at best, merely a better suburb, not some city on a hill anymore. That&rsquo;s too bad - but, it is what it is. I think your suggestion that it does no lower income a favor plopping them down in the suburbs without adequate transportation, jobs, or social network is important. Sometimes, our focus is so strong on maintaining some kind of diversity in Howard County, we forget that we must have a reason to attract such families. And, maybe we don&rsquo;t. We just got back from a visit to Spain. Madrid, Seville, Barcelona, like many of their counterparts throughout Europe, all provide high-speed, safe, and affordable mass transportation options that are unknown in the U.S. The trains we travelled on in Spain averaged over 120 mph - and were on time! Yes, it would be expensive to try and duplicate such a transportation network in this country. But, do we really have a choice? With our population growth (Maryland will add another 1,000,000 people in the next 20 years, if not sooner), and the anticipated high standard of living we want, there is no way we can build our highways to accommodate the resulting traffic that will occur. We live in a complex community now that is affected by all of the communities that have been or that will be built around us. Thanks for showing us yet another dimension in this conversation.</p>
<h4 id="a8850cc0-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-20 14:14</h4>
<p>wildelakemike: Thanks for your comments. I&rsquo;m sorry the ideas in the post were a little unclear. I typically am thinking through the ideas in these posts at the same time I&rsquo;m writing them. On the plus side writing things out forces me to actually think through what I&rsquo;m saying, including considering unexamined assumptions and contrary views; however it often also leads to a somewhat disjointed and unclear post. My main purpose in talking about Gini coefficients, income by quintile, etc., was to examine the assumption that low income inequality in Howard automatically equates to a truly egalitarian community. One can imagine a group of millionaires gathering together and congratulating each other, &ldquo;Hey folks, we&rsquo;re all equal here!&rdquo; That in essence is the potential knock against Howard County and Columbia. Your points on the future need for mass transit are well-taken. Whether it will actually happen in the context of Howard is an open question. In my next &ldquo;Howard in the 21st century&rdquo; post I&rsquo;ll touch on why I think it&rsquo;s harder in the US than in Europe to fund collective goods like mass transit.</p>
<h4 id="a8850cc0-001">Columbia 20something (msfennell@gmail.com) - 2010-06-20 17:17</h4>
<p>wildlakemike, I agree 100% I think that many people are realizing that we can&rsquo;t use outdated modes of transportation as the county, and state, continue to grow. We can&rsquo;t just keep stuffing our highways, city streets, and neighborhoods with car after car after car, it&rsquo;s ridiculous! Howard transit and MTA need to expand public transportation. You can actually get to Baltimore or D.C. by bus during the week, but it&rsquo;s a huge pain to get there. I commute by bus once a week to my job in Catonsville to give my aging car a break, do a little bit to reduce traffic, and support mass transit. I do it on principal, but there is SO much room for improvement for MTA/Howard transit. There is only one route that gets me to where I need to go and it only runs 3 times in the morning and 3 times in the afternoon. And I have to catch the last bus coming and going. That means that if I miss the bus for any reason, that&rsquo;s it. No bus. Now, I&rsquo;m lucky because I have a car and can take it to work if need be. Or I can call my spouse and get picked up. But we&rsquo;re lucky. That&rsquo;s not an option for most people who take the bus, and that kind of inequality just stinks to me.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A visit to Kentlands</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/17/a-visit-to-kentlands/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 17 Jun 2010 20:04:58 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/17/a-visit-to-kentlands/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;&lt;del&gt;Today&lt;/del&gt; On Wednesday I had to drive over to drop something off at a co-worker’s house in &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentlands,_Gaithersburg,_Maryland&#34;&gt;Kentlands&lt;/a&gt;, the “neo-traditional” residential and commercial development in Gaithersburg.  (For those interested in traffic, the trip took almost exactly an hour, starting from Oakland Mills Village Center and heading down US 29, around the beltway, and back up I-270.)  My visit, short though it was, prompted some thoughts about future development in Howard County.  My usual disclaimer applies: These are not the opinions of a trained professional, just those of an ordinary person who might be a visitor to or even resident of future developments.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><del>Today</del> On Wednesday I had to drive over to drop something off at a co-worker’s house in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentlands,_Gaithersburg,_Maryland">Kentlands</a>, the “neo-traditional” residential and commercial development in Gaithersburg.  (For those interested in traffic, the trip took almost exactly an hour, starting from Oakland Mills Village Center and heading down US 29, around the beltway, and back up I-270.)  My visit, short though it was, prompted some thoughts about future development in Howard County.  My usual disclaimer applies: These are not the opinions of a trained professional, just those of an ordinary person who might be a visitor to or even resident of future developments.</p>
<p>I had visited Kentlands back when we lived in Montgomery County and the then-new development was being hailed as the next big thing in suburban community planning.  There were a few houses, a couple of community center facilities (adapted from existing structures), a school, and that was about it.  Later I read about a K-Mart and Lowes being built between Kentlands and the adjoining highway, an event criticized as a betrayal of the Kentlands design principles of walkability and human scale development.</p>
<p>Well, having driven around Kentlands today I can say that at least to me the reality of Kentlands is more interesting and even attractive than either the hype or the hate would suggest.  True, there’s the aforementioned K-Mart and Lowes in <a href="http://www.kentlandssquare.com/">Kentlands Square</a>, a typical big-box development, albeit with a bit more design flair than most.  There are also the expected houses, townhouses, and apartment buildings (the largest thing in the immediate neighborhood in terms of scale).  But the most interesting thing in my opinion was <a href="http://www.kentlandsmarketsquare.com/">Market Square</a>, a low-rise retail development located right next to the apartments and townhouses.</p>
<p>It seemed like a nice variegated human-scale development, someplace you could drive into (like I did) and park at, or just stroll to from the neighboring apartments and townhouses.  It was a little bit messy in terms of the street layout, which seemed like a hybrid of a central rectilinear grid with more suburban-like curviness around it.  The architecture was pleasant without being truly distinguished, and in a couple of places was a bit jarring.  Most notably, next to the residential area there was a transitional row of buildings that contained retail shops but that looked like re-purposed townhouses, complete with that blank-looking siding-covered back end that a lot of today’s townhouses have.  I don’t know if that was done deliberately to echo the real townhouses, or if the popularity of the retail spaces led the developers to convert some planned townhouses for retail use.</p>
<p>If the latter, it’s an indication of the popularity of Market Square, which seemed well-populated with a mix of people shopping, eating out, and generally larking about.  You’d never mistake Kentlands for a real city or a real small town, but at least to my ignorant eyes it seemed like a place with some vitality, someplace I wouldn’t mind living in or visiting.  It was definitely suburban in character, but it had that “better suburb” vibe I’ve been going on about.</p>
<p>On the drive home I took the back way through Montgomery County to avoid the beltway and ended up driving down MD 216 through Fulton.  I couldn’t help contrasting where I’d just been with <a href="http://www.maplelawnmd.com/project_ov.php">Maple Lawn</a>, Howard County’s own <a href="http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/washingtonpost/access/380314371.html?FMT=ABS&amp;FMTS=ABS:FT&amp;date=Aug+7%2C+2003&amp;author=Sabrina+Jones+and+Dana+Hedgpeth&amp;pub=The+Washington+Post&amp;edition=&amp;startpage=T.05&amp;desc=Applying+Lessons+From+Kentlands%3B+%27New+Urbanism%27+Pioneer+A+Guide+for+Maple+Lawn">Kentlands manqué</a>.  Even allowing for the relative age and build-out of the two developments, the comparison was not favorable to Maple Lawn.</p>
<p>The biggest thing that struck me about Maple Lawn is that it’s a supposedly walkable community with no place to actually walk to.  In Kentlands you could drive to Market Square if you lived elsewhere, but if you actually lived in Kentlands it doesn’t seem too much of a hike to walk over to Market Square and have a burger at <a href="http://www.fiveguys.com/">Five Guys</a> or whatever.  However in Maple Lawn, for whatever reason (because the development has power lines running down the middle?) the residential area is totally isolated from the office and retail area; a local wanting to stroll over to <a href="http://www.looneyspubmd.com/">Looney’s Pub</a> to watch the NBA finals or have some ice cream at <a href="http://www.maggiemoos.com/home/index.cfm">Maggie Moo’s</a> would face a walk of almost a mile.</p>
<p>This may account for some of the failure of Maple Lawn to generate more traffic for now-closed restaurants in the development like <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/2009/08/is-oz-chophouse-closing.html">Oz Chophouse</a> or <a href="http://chowhound.chow.com/topics/569122">Trapeze</a>: If a Kentlands resident starts walking over to Market Square, then for sure they’re going to end up shopping or eating there.  But if a Maple Lawn resident has to get in the car anyway to go to a Maple Lawn restaurant or shop, then they’re quite likely to change their mind in the process and drive somewhere else in the county.</p>
<p>On the way home I also drove through the center of Rockville and took a swing by the new town center development.  Those who know Rockville will recall that Rockville had a past “downtown disaster” in the form of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockville_Mall">Rockville Mall</a>, an indoor mall in a faux-<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brutalist_architecture">Brutalist</a> idiom (in my opinion one of the worst movements in 60s and 70s architecture&mdash;which is saying something&mdash;and one of the worst possible choices for a retail center).  Much of it is still there, having been converted to government office space, and the hopes of Rockville now rest with the new <a href="http://www.rockvilletownsquare.com/about/overview.php">Rockville Town Square</a> development a couple of blocks north, designed to provide a high-density transit-oriented environment (though it’s further away from the Metro station than the old Rockville Mall).</p>
<p>Frankly I was unimpressed at first glance.  In driving by Rockville Town Square the buildings seemed rather blank, cold, and forbidding.  The most prominent features I recall seeing were entrances for underground parking garages&mdash;a sure turn-off for the typical suburbanite, who’s been spoiled by surface parking lots and primed by Hollywood action movies to know that nothing good can come of entering an underground garage.</p>
<p>I was about to give up on it when I decided to leave MD 355 and other main streets and go down a side street.  I then discovered that in the center of the development (you know, where nobody driving by can see it) there was a short street (perhaps a hundred yards or so) that had a reasonable facsimile of an urban streetscape, including some shops, restaurants and a new library with a nice little public courtyard.  It was nice, but it seemed out of place, and I had to wonder how popular it really is.</p>
<p>I think Kentlands, Maple Lawn, and Rockville Town Square have some basic lessons to teach us about development in the suburbs, lessons that are applicable to the future Columbia Town Center development.  Maple Lawn (at least in its present form) tries to follow the “new urbanism” template, but perpetuates the traditional suburban separation of residential and commercial development and thus forces even its residents into their cars.  Rockville Town Center goes in the other direction: it strives to replicate a high-density urban milieu at the expense of turning off suburbanites who by necessity may have to drive there.</p>
<p>Kentlands is by no means perfect, but as a suburbanite it felt comfortable and reassuring while offering an experience that is a step up from your typical suburban community.  It is relatively discoverable by car, and when driving into the development it offers a nice transition from county four-lane highway to central boulevard to smaller side streets to small surface lots or on-street spaces, from whence you can walk to your destination and stroll through a relatively enticing and human-scale streetscape.  I hope that Columbia Town Center will be able to replicate the experience.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="71e19256-008">randy (randyre@hotmail.com) - 2010-06-18 04:58</h4>
<p>I thoroughly enjoyed reading your post and the observations you have made. I lived in Columbia for many years (from high school on), but now live in Northern VA. Have you had a chance to see Reston Town Center? It is worth checking out. It is a vibrant place because there are businesses, residences (mid-rise and high rise condos), shopping, and entertainment with easy pedestrian access. True, if you live in Reston but not near the Town Center, you would have to drive there, but when I compare it to Columbia Town Center (and I get to both a fair amount these days), I get the feeling that something is missing in Columbia TC, even though the setting on Lake Kittamaqundi is beautiful.</p>
<h4 id="71e19256-001">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-06-18 10:21</h4>
<p>Not being a planner either, it&rsquo;s difficult for me to understand the mechanical reasons why one development works, while another doesn&rsquo;t. Frank, in layman&rsquo;s terms, you did a very job of distinguishing the three locations you visited, and Randy&rsquo;s added comment was also helpful. My wife and I recently visited Annapolis Towncenter at Parole (I think that&rsquo;s the name), a so-called &ldquo;lifestyle&rdquo; center not too far from the Annapolis Mall, right in the middle of all of those box stores outside of Annapolis (my home town, by the way). This development is vertical mixed-use center with several high-rise buildings on either side of pavered street that visually dominate the area. The first floors were all retail, with clothing stores, a yogurt store, a Whole Foods grocery store and numerous other small stores. In one building, a Target occupied the entire third floor. Parking was provided in the back and was easily accessible. Offices occupied the second floor levels as well. Above were apartments and condos. What struck us was there were really people on the streets, walking their dogs, enjoying coffee at a sidewalk cafe, and generally enjoying their Sunday afternoon. Though we did not eat at any of the several restaurants, I have been told they are pretty good and are easily in walking distance from the housing units that were integrated into the development. The location of this center is hardly ideal. We checked out a condo, and when we looked down from one side, we saw the Home Depot, from another side, a Kohl&rsquo;s. While the center itself was fairly well designed, though as Frank noted, without remarkable architecture, it is still in an unattractive residential location. In any case, this center does show what can be done with a true, mixed-use community. Like Frank, I am hoping that so many of the lessons that can be learned from other developments can be reflected in Columbia&rsquo;s downtown.</p>
<h4 id="71e19256-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-18 10:36</h4>
<p>Randy: Thanks for your comment. Funny you should mention Reston Town Center&hellip; But first, a date correction: I actually visited Kentlands on Wednesday and started writing the post that evening. I finished and posted it yesterday evening (Thursday), but because I run my blog on UTC time (which is four hours ahead of us right now) it was dated today (Friday). I corrected the date at the beginning of the post accordingly. All clear? Anyway, after visiting Kentlands the day before I happened to be in Reston Town Center just yesterday; I travel to Reston every week or two on business, and have been to Reston Town Center several times to eat lunch over the past few months. I didn&rsquo;t think to compare Columbia to Reston, probably because subconsciously I don&rsquo;t think there is a comparison, Reston being so much more advanced than its erstwhile “new town” rival in terms of commercial density and general economic vibrancy. For what it&rsquo;s worth, I generally like Reston Town Center. Again, there&rsquo;s no confusing it with a real city, but there are enough high-rise commercial buildings there to make it stand out in the landscape as a destination. Unlike Kentlands there&rsquo;s enough density to require parking garages to hold all the cars; unlike Rockville Town Square the parking garages are above ground, which though uglier makes it more like a typical mall environment that suburbanites would find familiar and comforting. If I remember correctly the parking garages are just on one side of the development, which opens up the development on the other sides and makes it more approachable when arriving by car.</p>
<h4 id="71e19256-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-18 10:58</h4>
<p>wildelakemike: Thanks for the report on Annapolis Towncenter at Parole; I&rsquo;ve never visited there, so I can&rsquo;t really comment on it. I will however echo your final paragraph and urge county council members and others involved in Columbia Town Center planning to check out other “next-generation” suburban developments in the Washington-Baltimore area. Besides getting some ideas on what does and doesn&rsquo;t work, it&rsquo;s important to see up close and personal the attractions of other local jurisdictions that will be competing with Columbia and Howard County for residents and businesses. In my opinion it&rsquo;s especially important that council members and planners experience other developments as “civilians” do, not via official trips with other dignitaries and planners close at hand to explain the theory behind the reality. Screw the theory: What matters is how the development is perceived by ordinary people doing the things ordinary people do: shopping, eating, going to movies, checking out the local apartments, townhouses, and condos. I think this is especially important because it&rsquo;s going to take a long time to build out Columbia Town Center, and in my opinion the development needs to “work” reasonably well during all phases. Maybe it&rsquo;s all going to be great when it&rsquo;s done and the grand vision is fulfilled, but Columbia Town Center is going to be stuck in the halfway stages for a long time, and if the economy goes south in a major way it may end up stuck in the halfway stages forever. For example, I think Maple Lawn doesn&rsquo;t really “work” in major ways in its current state, and at least with me its reputation has suffered because of that. I&rsquo;d hate for similar mistakes to be made with Columbia Town Center.</p>
<h4 id="71e19256-009"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-06-18 13:02</h4>
<p>Rockville Town Center&ndash; it&rsquo;s interesting that you would say that the parking garages are a turnoff for suburbanites as the Rockville area has a handful of them. Few are underground, to be sure, but I don&rsquo;t think folks who live in Rockville are as nervous as you think about underground parking garages as it&rsquo;s a lot closer to denser development than anything in Howard County is. The parking garage uses the newish sensor technology which tells you how many spaces are occupied, which is cool and helps reassure folks they&rsquo;ll find a spot. I&rsquo;m not sure what time of day you visited, but on weekends and evenings, those garages have a lot of cars in them (folks at the restaurants). They feature another aspect that folks in Rockville aren&rsquo;t used to (which I think is more significant than the underground parking garages), and that&rsquo;s parking you have to pay for. The garages there are $1/hour. Granted, if you know the area, you can get away without paying by parking further away. Or go to the library and you get two free hours. Rockville Town Centre is still pretty new, and is competing with a lot. I don&rsquo;t like the outward design (it is intimidating if you&rsquo;re on the wrong side, and it can be confusing), and I don&rsquo;t know that its popularity can be attributed to any design as opposed to the type of restaurants and shops that are available there. The big hole in it is also the Superfresh that was supposed to go in but fell through after back-and-forth. The Magruder&rsquo;s that was there before (when it was a strip mall) was allllways busy. In the meantime, though, a Giant has opened up about a half mile away, so it&rsquo;s difficult to know whether or not a new grocery store would be sustainable there. If I was a resident at Rockville Town Square, I&rsquo;d be ticked because the Superfresh would have been much more convenient, and the Giant really isn&rsquo;t. I agree that County Council members should be checking out these other developments (along with Washington Center in Gaithersburg, King Farm in Rockville/Derwood) to see what to emulate and what to avoid. Maple Lawn, in my opinion, is an outright failure so far, but I would argue that plopping that development down where it is was a bad idea to begin with, especially with the scale of all the development making it hardly walkable.</p>
<h4 id="71e19256-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-18 17:49</h4>
<p>Sarah: Thanks for your informative comments, as always. I drove by Rockville Town Square at 4 pm on a weekday and obviously was on the &ldquo;wrong side&rdquo;, as you put it. However I got the impression that there wasn&rsquo;t any &ldquo;right side&rdquo; except for the inside, i.e., the central street. I note that on the Rockville Town Square web page I linked to, the photo of the development was taken at night when the buildings were all lit up and looked more inviting; whether deliberate or not, it clearly serves to hide some of the development&rsquo;s design flaws.</p>
<h4 id="71e19256-005"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-18 17:59</h4>
<p>Sarah: One more thing, totally off-topic (but since it&rsquo;s my blog I&rsquo;ll excuse myself): Did you know that the St-Exupery quote on your blog was later adapted (or reinvented) by the poet Frank Bidart, to totally opposite affect? (See his poem &ldquo;<a href="http://www.poemhunter.com/poem/to-the-dead/">To the Dead</a>&rdquo;, from his book &ldquo;In the Western Night&rdquo;.) According to Google at least I seem to have been the only person who&rsquo;s ever noticed this.</p>
<h4 id="71e19256-006"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-06-18 18:23</h4>
<p>It does look nice coming up (north, I think) on Maryland Avenue, but this is a street not usually used And I think absolutely think those photos were used to hide some development flaws :) Re: the poem and the quote&hellip; wow. I love it. It&rsquo;s amazing how he used it to convey&hellip; yeah, the total opposite effect. Thanks for that!</p>
<h4 id="71e19256-007"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-06-18 18:24</h4>
<p>Ack, I didn&rsquo;t finish my thought&ndash; not usually used unless you&rsquo;re going somewhere specifically on Maryland Ave or coming up from 270.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>More on the Taxpayer Protection Initiative</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/12/more-on-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 12 Jun 2010 16:46:09 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/12/more-on-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I’m still working on the next blog post in my “Howard County in the 21st century” series.  In the meantime I thought I’d take a break and revisit the proposed &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/bs-md-ho-taxes-gop-20100510,0,2688172.story&#34;&gt;Taxpayer Protection Initiative&lt;/a&gt; to require a supermajority vote for the Howard County council to raise taxes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, noted without comment, from a &lt;a href=&#34;http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/06/evening-with-dennis-schrader.html&#34;&gt;blog post by Wordbones&lt;/a&gt; about his attending a fundraiser for Dennis Schrader:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There were also people at the event enlisting signatures for the petition drive to put the Taxpayer Protection Initiative on the ballot this fall.  The [Republican] party faithful I spoke with last night were somewhat divided on the wisdom of this effort.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’m still working on the next blog post in my “Howard County in the 21st century” series.  In the meantime I thought I’d take a break and revisit the proposed <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/bs-md-ho-taxes-gop-20100510,0,2688172.story">Taxpayer Protection Initiative</a> to require a supermajority vote for the Howard County council to raise taxes.</p>
<p>First, noted without comment, from a <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/06/evening-with-dennis-schrader.html">blog post by Wordbones</a> about his attending a fundraiser for Dennis Schrader:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There were also people at the event enlisting signatures for the petition drive to put the Taxpayer Protection Initiative on the ballot this fall.  The [Republican] party faithful I spoke with last night were somewhat divided on the wisdom of this effort.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Second, I was at the Columbia lakefront today attending Lakefest events, and on my walk back to my car encountered a couple of people soliciting signatures for the Taxpayer Protection Initiative.  This was my first encounter with the TPI “in person” (as it were), and unfortunately I ended up expressing my opposition to the initiative in what I realized (as soon as the words were out of my mouth) were inappropriate and disrepectful terms.  The folks soliciting signatures were enduring a hot day in the sun working for a cause they believed in, and regardless of my opinions of that cause they certainly deserved far better than getting a verbal upbrading from me.  So, TPI petition folk, whoever you are, please accept my sincere apologies for my rude behavior.</p>
<p>I was prompted to one final thought on the wisdom of the Taxpayer Protection Initiative by Alan Klein’s proposal (in his <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/05/klein-in-full.html">county council campaign announcement</a>) that “certain services, such as a basic grocery store be considered <em>required</em> elements in a Columbia village center” [emphasis added].  I had <a href="/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/">previously identified as one flaw of the initiative</a> that it didn’t address “stealth” tax raises in the form of excessive user fees that might charged by the county to make up for the inability to raise additional tax revenue.</p>
<p>Klein’s comment points up another way for the county council to make an end run around the Taxpayer Protection Initiative, namely by imposing “unfunded mandates” on county businesses and individuals, in other words implementing particular policies by pushing all the costs onto the private sector.</p>
<p>In some cases it makes sense for the county to require that businesses or residents bear the cost of certain provisions.  For example, I have no problem with developers being required to assist in paying for roads or sewage facilities that are made necessary as a direct result of their projects being built.  However if there are artificially-imposed barriers to raising taxes then that will encourage politicians to take government-imposed mandates well beyond what can be justified, distorting the market and limiting liberty in the process.</p>
<p>For example, what Alan Klein is proposing to do with respect to mandating inclusion of groceries in village centers is in effect to force the owners of the village centers to shoulder the cost burden of implementing Klein’s particular vision of social justice.  As I noted in <a href="/2010/05/26/doesnt-wilde-lake-have-a-grocery-store/">my blog post on this topic</a>, assuming for the sake of argument that there is a genuine public need that needs to be addressed, I think it is more honest and arguably less costly to address it via direct subsidies funded by general tax revenue.</p>
<p>I’m not generally in the habit of giving unsolicited advice to Howard County Republicans, but I’ll repeat what I wrote previously: If you are sincere about pursuing the stated goals behind the Taxpayer Protection Initiative then you should forget this initiative and just work to elect more Republican candidates to the county council.  (You don’t even necessarily need a majority; assuming Courtney Watson is reelected, based on her past statements and votes I suspect she’d be willing to join you in at least certain instances where you feel that county government spending has gotten out of hand and needs to be reined in.)  Tell those poor people I abused to get out of the hot summer sun, and put them to work for a more worthy cause.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="e843fa58-003">Ken Aldrich (LibertyTree1@verizon.net) - 2010-06-13 01:47</h4>
<p>Frank, There is no more worthy cause than to stop those hell-bent on spending our children&rsquo;s money and running the U.S beyond bankruptcy. Our children already owe nearly 1/4 million each to pay back what we have spent. Howard County is no exception. This year&rsquo;s budget was supposedly balanced yet no payment was made toward the county employee&rsquo;s pension fund. I&rsquo;ve asked the County Budget Office to explain but so far they have avoided my inquiry. We succeeded today despite being ejected from the LakeFest parking lot Friday night. Moreover, we successfully competed in the Chalk-It-Up Art Contest. I hope our artist Anika Theus wins top prize for her beautiful interpretation of Maryland&rsquo;s tax burden. Our exclusion from city property&ndash;don&rsquo;t tell me the Lake Front area is all private&ndash;is but one example of the how the people&rsquo;s ability to petition their government has been severly restricted throughout this not-so-free county. I do accept your apology on behalf of my fellow signature collectors. Gracious of you to offer it. It was definitely hot. Ken Aldrich TPI Project Manager PS: Since the dead have no right to bind the living, the living are under no obligation to pay the debts of the dead. The living have no right to burden posterity with their own debts and are morally bound to pay them within their own time. &mdash;Thos. Jefferson</p>
<h4 id="e843fa58-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-13 03:29</h4>
<p>Ken: Thanks for stopping by, and for accepting my apology. I&rsquo;m not an expert on petition law or CA regulations, so I can&rsquo;t speak to your experience there. I do however wish you cooler weather in your future petition activities. Your mention of county employees&rsquo; pensions though does being up a point I think is worth noting. I think a problem people are going to have with the TPI is concern over the effects that artificially restricting the power to tax might have on county finances in future. I&rsquo;m certainly worried about that, and it&rsquo;s the major reason I&rsquo;m opposed to the initiative. However I think people would be more receptive to a campaign directed specifically at those factors that will strain county finances in the long term, with pension obligations being a major one of those. I suspect that people like me who&rsquo;ve never had a job with an associated pension are more likely to support reasonable restraints on pension arrangements and associated long-term financial obligations. I think a voter initiative would be a rather blunt instrument to address that problem, but it could certainly be something a candidate could campaign on.</p>
<h4 id="e843fa58-004">Pat Dornan (patdornan1@verizon.net) - 2010-06-22 12:18</h4>
<p>Dear Frank: This is the first time I&rsquo;ve read your blog, and posted a response, so please forgive me if I have misinterpreted your views. I believe from what I&rsquo;ve read that you have a basic distrust of government (&ldquo;the initiative&hellip;didn’t address &ldquo;stealth&rdquo; tax raises in the form of excessive user fees that might charged by the county to make up for the inability to raise additional tax revenue.&rdquo;) I agree. In fact that alone is an excellent reason to restrict government&rsquo;s ability to tax, thus I might expect you to support the TPI. Your argument that user fees should be included has a great deal of merit. For example, the fee imposed upon us for an addition to our house (the school construction tax) has gone up over 10% since its inception. There have been no protests, since everyone doesn&rsquo;t have to pay it. As for your argument that tax cuts should also require a super majority, I would support that if taxes were cut at the same rate that they are increased. Since tax cuts are so rare, and since tax cuts (at least at the federal level) generally increase government revenue (this is well documented), I do not know that it is necessary. But I&rsquo;d trade that for your support of the TPI. regards, Pat Dornan Founder (and now retired from activism), Howard County Taxpayer&rsquo;s Association</p>
<h4 id="e843fa58-005"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-23 00:41</h4>
<p>Pat: Thanks for stopping by to comment. You have in fact misinterpreted my views, but your confusion is understandable. I was trying to do proponents of the TPI the courtesy of taking their views seriously, basically trying out putting myself in their shoes. Personally I do have a basic level of trust in elected officials and in government, albeit with the Ronald Reagan caveat of &ldquo;trust, but verify&rdquo;. (For more on my own views see [my response to PZGURU](in the past) in my original TPI post.) What I was trying to get at in my posts was that *if* I had a basic distrust in government and believed that elected officials were recklessly pursuing a &ldquo;tax and spend&rdquo; agenda, then I would not be so foolish as to think that those elected officials were stupid and couldn&rsquo;t find a way around something like the TPI. And in fact we see such &ldquo;cleverness&rdquo; in places like California and elsewhere: substituting user fees for taxes, imposing unfunded mandates on businesses, engaging in accounting chicanery, or just racking up increasing deficits. So my conclusion is that if you think elected officials are a bad lot and can&rsquo;t be trusted not to tax and spend into oblivion, then the best approach is not to try to circumscribe them in ways that they will inevitably evade. Rather it&rsquo;s to work to elect better public officials, ones more in sync with your own philosophy.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Howard County and the 21st century suburb</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/09/howard-county-and-the-21st-century-suburb/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 09 Jun 2010 19:23:39 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/09/howard-county-and-the-21st-century-suburb/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/02/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county-ctd/&#34;&gt;recent post&lt;/a&gt; I opined that three things made Columbia (and by extension Howard County) the kind of place it was and (to a greater or lesser degree) still is:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;It was a “better suburb,” relative to other suburbs.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;It had a more socially diverse and inclusive environment, again relative to other suburbs.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;It had a prosperous economy driven by steadily growing government spending.&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;No sooner had I done that post than the &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbia2.wordpress.com/2010/06/03/food-for-thought/&#34;&gt;Columbia 2.0 blog quoted Jim Rouse&lt;/a&gt; on the first goal of Columbia: ““To provide a real City&amp;mdash;&lt;em&gt;not just a better suburb&lt;/em&gt;” [emphasis added].  It was as if Rouse himself had risen from the grave to contradict me.  (And wildelakemike further reinforced the point in his &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/02/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county-ctd/#cf99a80d-001&#34;&gt;comment&lt;/a&gt; on my post.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a <a href="/2010/06/02/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county-ctd/">recent post</a> I opined that three things made Columbia (and by extension Howard County) the kind of place it was and (to a greater or lesser degree) still is:</p>
<ul>
<li>It was a “better suburb,” relative to other suburbs.</li>
<li>It had a more socially diverse and inclusive environment, again relative to other suburbs.</li>
<li>It had a prosperous economy driven by steadily growing government spending.</li>
</ul>
<p>No sooner had I done that post than the <a href="http://columbia2.wordpress.com/2010/06/03/food-for-thought/">Columbia 2.0 blog quoted Jim Rouse</a> on the first goal of Columbia: ““To provide a real City&mdash;<em>not just a better suburb</em>” [emphasis added].  It was as if Rouse himself had risen from the grave to contradict me.  (And wildelakemike further reinforced the point in his <a href="/2010/06/02/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county-ctd/#cf99a80d-001">comment</a> on my post.)</p>
<p>Well, far be it from me to do battle with the ghost of Jim Rouse and the very much alive wildelakemike, but I will stand by my comment in response to wildelakemike:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>First, Columbia’s city-like aspects, even if they’d been expanded, strike me as basically a suburban take on a city: higher density, yes, but at heart a tamed version of what an actual city would be like.  . . .  It’s similar I think to what Rouse’s “festival marketplaces” turned out to be, namely an urban concept reimagined to appeal to suburban sensibilities.</p>
<p>Second, whatever Rouse’s original intentions regarding higher-density, they were not followed through on.  From my point of view this indicates that creating a “new American city” was in the end not essential to the view of Columbia as it evolved in the minds of its developers and its residents.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Whatever happens with town center redevelopment or development elsewhere in Howard County, Columbia is certainly not going to turn into a city like Baltimore.  It’s not even clear that Columbia will or could become a city like Bethesda or Rockville.  (Most notably, the prospects for a true mass transit system in Columbia are iffy to say the least.)  And of course Howard County as a whole will almost certainly remain predominantly suburban in character, no matter what happens in Columbia proper.</p>
<p>But that’s OK.  A lot of people <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/special-report/the-future-of-the-city/archive/2010/05/an-interview-with-kevin-drum/57133/">like the suburbs</a>, and even allowing for higher gas prices and other factors it’s likely that suburban life will continue to be attractive to many.  The key for Howard County is to continue to be a better suburb: better than it is now, better than other Baltimore-Washington suburbs as they are today, and better than those other suburbs as they might evolve in future.</p>
<p>How might this be done?  As will become apparent, I don’t know a lot about the fine points of suburban planning (although I may try to learn more if I stay interested in this subject), but here are some off-the-cuff ideas, offered not because I think they’re authoritative answers but more in the spirit of encouraging constructive dialogue:</p>
<p><em>Maintain relative advantages in the core suburban selling points.</em> I see the two most important of these being security and education: Having a (perceived to be) safe environment in which to raise children, coupled with a taxpayer-supported school system to provide them a (perceived to be) good education.  (I say “perceived to be” because perception and reality are not always in sync; see my comment below.)  The main task here is to preserve these attributes in a time during which the county will likely come under increased fiscal pressure due to rising costs and an economy that will likely be relatively stagnant compared to past years.</p>
<p>This doesn’t mean blindly continuing business as usual in terms of funding and strategy.  In the realm of education in particular there are going to be lots of things happening in the next 10-20 years that will shake things up, including the growth of online education as a major complement to in-classroom instruction.  During times of stagnant government revenues we’ll need to look for ever more productive ways to leverage school and public safety funding.</p>
<p>I think it will be better if the county can do that from a position of fiscal strength, so that essential county services are preserved; if such services go downhill it will be very difficulty to reverse adverse perceptions on the part of individuals or businesses considering relocating to Howard County.  (For a good example of this problem see the recent <a href="http://www.urbanitebaltimore.com/sub.cfm?ArticleID=1541&amp;IssueID=85&amp;SectionID=4">Urbanite article</a> about trying to demonstrate to people that many Baltimore public schools are in reality pretty good.)</p>
<p><em>Provide more opportunities to work, shop, and play locally.</em> Although Baltimore and DC haven’t moved in terms of actual distance, as a practical matter traffic congestion is causing them to recede further and further over the horizon as time goes on.  This effect is particularly pronounced in the case of DC and its suburbs.  Because of the nature of my job I travel all over the DC metro area, and it’s astonishing how travel times have lengthened, especially for return trips in the afternoon and evening; from where I live in Ellicott City I’m now over an hour away from Bethesda and the close-in Maryland suburbs, over an hour and a half away from downtown DC, and (at least for the return trip) over two hours away from Reston, Herndon, and other northern Virginia locations.</p>
<p>In my opinion that makes it all the more important to foster employment growth and commercial development within Columbia and Howard County, so that there’s a critical mass of opportunities to live, work, and spend leisure time nearby.  Some people are concerned that the planned Columbia Town Center development and other initiatives will increase traffic congestion by both increasing the local population and attracting commuters from elsewhere.  That may be true, but I think the alternative is worse: I’d rather deal with some localized congestion commuting to a job within Howard County than have to drive a ways out of the county and then have to deal with equivalent or worse local congestion at my destination.</p>
<p><em>Ruthlessly reimagine traditional features of Columbia and the county at large.</em> A good example here is the set of village centers in Columbia.  Whatever role they might have played in the original vision of Columbia, to an outsider coming into Columbia today they are simply strip shopping centers that are inconveniently located.  For better or worse increased mobility on the part of Columbia’s residents has altered the basic economic equation for the village centers: the more village residents shop outside the village, the more the centers need to attract custom from non-village residents in order to survive.</p>
<p>To me this sounds the death knell for the <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/05/klein-in-full.html">idea promoted by Alan Klein</a> and others that “certain services, such as a basic grocery store be considered required elements in a Columbia village center.” A “basic” grocery is worse than useless in attracting outside business; far better in my opinion to provide a <a href="/2010/05/26/doesnt-wilde-lake-have-a-grocery-store/">non-traditional grocery store</a> that can attract significant outside business while still serving village residents.  Other ways to differentiate village centers might include one-of-a-kind restaurants, boutiques, and other services, live/work spaces or <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2007/05/05/coworking-in-columbia/">coworking</a> spaces.</p>
<p>I have no idea whether any of these might be sufficient to keep the village centers viable for the long term, especially the older and more inconveniently located ones.  For at least some village centers it might be better to wipe the slate clean and start over rather than keep them on life support.  And if preserving village centers as they were is truly important to preserving the vision of Columbia then CA or the county can consider subsidizing some of them or even buying them out to be used for public purposes.  Maybe if all else fails they can even turn Wilde Lake Village Center into a living museum of Columbia, complete with Jim Rouse impersonator and interpretive guides.</p>
<p><em>Create attractive “starter neighborhoods” for families of modest means looking to “move up” into Howard County.</em> There’s been a lot of discussion about having affordable housing as part of the new Columbia Town Center development, as opposed to having it be limited to the supposed “<a href="/2008/09/09/the-wealthy-few-in-howard-county/">wealthy few</a>.”  I won’t quibble with the sentiment behind this, but the practicality of it is another matter.  To the extent that Columbia in general, and Town Center in particular, become more attractive places to live, they will also be more expensive places to live, as market demand combined with relatively limited supply drives up prices.  This convergence of people willing to spend serious money is exactly what makes it attractive to developers like GGP to make a bet on Columbia and Howard County; to quote Jim Rouse again, “profit . . . was our primary objective,” and nothing has changed in that regard.</p>
<p>Maybe I’m missing something, but isn’t the Route 1 corridor a better place for truly affordable housing?  I don’t mean this in a “let’s put ‘those folks’ out of sight across I-95” sort of way.  I’m talking about fully integrating the Route 1 corridor as part of Howard County, including having as full a range of housing, shopping, and employment opportunities as elsewhere in the county, just more affordable.  In sum, we want the neighborhoods along Route 1 to be the sort of places where families of modest means can aspire to live, places that partake in all the positive features that make Howard County a “better suburb.”</p>
<p><em>Upgrade the architecture a bit.</em> One of the things that goes into a sense of place is the built environment of a community, both at the macro-scale (large architectural icons that “brand” a locale, like the Empire State Building in New York) and at the micro-scale (the street-level mix of office, retail, and residential buildings).  Unfortunately Columbia had the misfortune to be built during the 60s and 70s, an era not known for architectural excellence.  It’s pretty sad when your major claim to architectural distinction is a bit of <a href="http://www.waymarking.com/waymarks/WM3V0K_Rouse_Company_Headquarters_Frank_Gehry_Columbia_MD_USA">Frank Gehry apprentice work</a>.  We can and should do better.</p>
<p>Unfortunately in practice Columbia and Howard County have very little chance of emulating <a href="http://www.columbus.in.us/listings/index.cfm?catId=336">Columbus, Indiana</a>, and being home to world-class architecture in a suburban context.  Howard County lacks the combination of truly wealthy philanthropists and status-seeking private-sector employers that has driven showcase architecture in Columbus and elsewhere, and given fiscal constraints governments cannot take up their mantle as architectural patrons (as they have done in Europe, for example).  Things are even more bleak on the residential side, since both home buyers and home builders are notoriously conservative when it comes to architectural innovation.</p>
<p>Beyond continuing to press developers to be just a tad more adventurous, perhaps the best approach might simply be to limit the extent to which any one architectural vision and design scheme is carried out, whether in Columbia Town Center or elsewhere.  This is the secret to many cities, for example: There’s enough variety that on any few blocks there’s a good chance of finding one or two architectural gems (relatively speaking), and whatever clunkers exist aren’t big enough to ruin the whole area.</p>
<p><em>Foster a few “extras” that are unique to Columbia and Howard County.</em> In a <a href="/2010/06/05/what-is-a-sense-of-place/#0303aea2-007">comment to a previous post of mine</a> Columbia 20something mentioned wanting to have some aspects of Howard County that were truly special and one of a kind:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>There need to be unique traits that really make the town come alive.  . . .  Concepts like “uniformity” and “replicable” have no place in creating a destination.  . . .  Columbia needs to shift away from being simply a better suburb to being a unique destination and a unique home.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Such a sense of uniqueness could be associated with particular places, particular events, or other features of county living.</p>
<p>Being one of a kind, these are the sort of things that can make a significant contribution to creating a true sense of place.  However they’re also the hardest things to plan or predict in advance.  As Columbia 20something noted, stereotypical planning can kill the very uniqueness it seeks to foster.  (This is also the crux of the <a href="/2010/05/25/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county/">argument</a> against Richard Florida-style “creative class” economic development strategies.)</p>
<p>In the end, unless it’s blessed with extraordinary geographic features the sense of uniqueness about a place arises mostly from how it’s evolved through its own unique and idiosyncratic history, and that is in large part of function of the unique and idiosyncratic people who lived there and made it what it was and is.  So if we want one-of-a-kind attractions perhaps the only way to get there is to attract and be welcoming to one-of-a-kind people and then step back and see what happens.</p>
<p>That’s a good lead-in to the next article planned for this series, which will address how to translate into the 21st century the values of social tolerance, diversity, and inclusiveness that formed part of the founding vision of Columbia.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="483fa83d-012"><a href="http://www.wordbones.com" title="wordbones@verizon.net">wordbones</a> - 2010-06-10 00:19</h4>
<p>Frank, Once again, excellent post. A manifesto for Columbia development moving forward. Well done. -wb</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-002">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-06-10 10:35</h4>
<p>I must echo WB&rsquo;s compliment. Well done! Actually, there is little in your post with which I would disagree. The concept of a &ldquo;New City&rdquo; deals only with the downtown area. By far the majority of Columbia will remain substantially the way it is now. And if there are things that we can do to improve the 95% of Columbia that would be physically untouched by downtown development, great. But whether Wilde Lake Village Center incorporates residential units, an &ldquo;anchor&rdquo; that would attract customers, or anything else to make it relevant again won&rsquo;t change the essential character of the Village of Wilde Lake itself. On the other hand, reimagining the downtown to bring it into the 21st Century will change the character of current downtown from a &ldquo;mall-centric&rdquo; center to a &ldquo;neighborhood-centric&rdquo; community. Over 30 years, 5500 residential units will be integrated into substantially increased office/retail spaces, hopefully in a creative and attractive manner. Here is an interesting demographic thought. Right now, our town center has about 1500 dwelling units; it has been a while since I looked at this number, but that&rsquo;s about right. Since Columbia has 40,000 units, that&rsquo;s a pretty small percentage. Adding 5500 units still brings the total number of units in the downtown up to only 7000 +/-. This means that the &ldquo;urban core&rdquo; of Columbia would have only 15% to 16% of Columbia&rsquo;s total dwelling units, a number that is certainly consistent with other similar communities in Maryland. More importantly, it will give builders the opportunity to build product that is totally lacking in Columbia - in Howard County - now. From 1967 to present, our population has grown from about 30,000 to 300,000 county-wide. By far the majority of the housing units in the County, therefore, were built during this expansion. The market was aimed at young families. So, we have an incredible number of dwelling units with lots and lots of steps. As our community has aged, those steps have become huge impediments in keeping the aging members of our community in Howard County. My wife and I have looked for a home in Howard County that has nice amenities associated with it, low maintenance, and whatever architectural elements that can make it somewhat unique. We have found that we are members of huge group of aging Columbians who want to &ldquo;right size&rdquo; into a home that no longer is needed for the care and feeding of children - except the occasional visits from grandchildren. The pent up demand for such housing in Howard County is very strong. So, having housing options that incorporate elements of univeral design that promote visitability will be important. People are already standing in line. If those units could be incorporated into neighborhoods with lots of age diversity, good shopping and access to services, and true walkability, then we can have the downtown we really need. Perhaps, I just got ahead of you. But it is exciting to ponder the future of our downtown!</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-008"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-06-10 11:02</h4>
<p>This is great! I have a few small quibbles with it, but as this is your opinion and I have mine, I will leave it at that; this is very well done. I do want to address the thought process behind affordable housing for a second. The idea (for better or for worse; I don&rsquo;t support all affordable housing efforts, but I&rsquo;m explaining the logic behind them as I understand it) behind the affordable housing components is that everyone benefits when people live in mixed-income neighborhoods. It&rsquo;s often painted as a &ldquo;poor people should have nice homes too,&rdquo; but really, everyone benefits from the diversity. There are all kinds of diversity in the world, but I would argue that here and now (in Columbia in 2010), socio-economic is one of the most difficult to get over. How many Columbians lament the effects of the poor black people coming from Baltimore, or the section 8 housing that is ruining our community, or the gang activity migrating from the city that is so quickly seeping into our existence? Likewise, how many Baltimoreans judge Columbia as stuck up, white, rich suburbanites with no concern for anyone but their own existence, just driving our SUVs from large chain store to large chain restaurant to soccer practice for little Johnny? A little getting-to-know-each-other goes a long way, and that&rsquo;s part of the idea with having truly integrated mixed-income housing as opposed to having a section of moderately priced housing out by Route 1.</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-005">HDG (hocohayduke@gmail.com) - 2010-06-10 12:17</h4>
<p>There are plenty of starter neighborhoods in Columbia already &ndash; Oakland Mills, Long Reach, Owen Brown, primarily. The challenge is keeping housing stock in these neighborhoods in good condition. Jessie talked about this a bit in a recent post. Anecdotally, there are a lot of young families in my little corner of Columbia (Stevens Forest).</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-006"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-10 13:00</h4>
<p>HDG: Thanks for your comment. When I wrote this section I was on the one hand trying to push back against the idea that a redeveloped Town Center needed to have lots of affordable housing, and on the other hand trying to promote Route 1 corridor development. So the existence of affordable housing elsewhere in Columbia sort of fell through the cracks in the writing.</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-007"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-06-10 13:33</h4>
<p>Did I tell you, you rock, Frank? I think I did. Well, if I haven&rsquo;t told you lately, I think you rock! :-) HDG - I was passing along an article a Columbia kid-turned-farmer-and-B&amp;B-owner sent me: The Best Neighborhoods for the Money 2010 <a href="http://www.walletpop.com/blog/2010/04/29/americas-best-neighborhoods-for-the-money-2010/">http://www.walletpop.com/blog/2010/04/29/americas-best-neighborhoods-for-the-money-2010/</a> Scroll down to the fifth or sixth (or whatever) entry. &ldquo;The Best Neighborhoods for the Money&rdquo; is very diff than a &ldquo;starter neighborhood,&rdquo; imo. But, still and all, it was an interesting factoid to share.</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-011"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-10 16:41</h4>
<p>Sarah: Thanks for your comment. Please feel free to quibble; these posts are not oracular pronouncements from on high, they&rsquo;re imperfect observations from someone of limited knowledge. Having people point out where I&rsquo;m wrong, and put forward different value judgments, is part of the fun. On the question of socioeconomic diversity, I agree with the general principle but believe you can take it only so far. I think it makes sense to have a fair amount of income diversity within neighborhoods, and also to have a variety of neighborhoods within a community suited to different ranges of income. But I don&rsquo;t believe that social justice demands that 100% (or 90% or 80% or some other high number) of all Howard County households be able to afford to live a particular neighborhood. The other point here is on the demand side: People who are attracted to a suburb in the first place are probably going to want to live the suburban lifestyle, which is car-centric and oriented towards single-family homes. So to me that says it makes sense to foster affordable neighborhoods where a family of modest means could aspire to eventually own their own single-family dwelling, as opposed to having affordable housing just equate to apartments, townhouses, or condos in a high-density area like the redeveloped Town Center.</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-001"><a href="http://umcanijustsay.blogspot.com" title="sarahbarah@gmail.com">Sarah</a> - 2010-06-10 16:46</h4>
<p>I totally agree. Affordable housing shouldn&rsquo;t only exist in Town Center, and I also take issue with advocates harping on affordable housing in new developments while ignoring all the affordable housing that DOES exist (see: Baltimore City affordable housing issues.) Beyond that, I also take issue with a developer having to pay for all this affordable housing. Except that I take issue with the &ldquo;suburban lifestyle&rdquo; having to be car-centric and single-family homes, at least in theory, I want to :) I think that&rsquo;s starting to shift somewhat.</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-010">Columbia 20something (msfennell@gmail.com) - 2010-06-11 02:30</h4>
<p>Another great post, Frank! I also agree with Sarah. Not all suburbanites want a car-centric lifestyle. In fact, I&rsquo;d say it&rsquo;s pretty harmful given the new homes, businesses, and attractions that will help grow Columbia. With an increased density, a strong public transport system, along with more consideration given to pedestrians and bicyclists, will make Columbia more livable&ndash; and more attractive.</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-004"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-12 11:24</h4>
<p>Wildelakemike: Your point about the need for a more diverse set of housing options, and in particular for age-appropriate housing, is very well-taken. I basically agree with your analysis, and have only a couple of points to add. First, one demonstration of this demand is the relative premium commanded by ranchers relative to other houses of equivalent square footage.(We&rsquo;ve experienced this first hand in our own search for a house.) Our curent neighborhood in Ellicott City (which dates back 40-50 years) has a higher than usual percentage of them, and a lot of older original residents who have thereby been enabled to age in place and not have to move to a seniors-only community. unfortunately as houses have become larger and lots smaller, ranchers have essentially disappeared as a mainstream housing option. Second, I think it&rsquo;s important that age-appropriate housing (including places with universal design feature) be integrated into the general mix of housing in the future Town Center and elsewhere, as opposed to being segregated into &ldquo;55 or better&rdquo; enclaves. This is more than just a mater of promoting age diversity within neighborhoods. Between people having children later, a stagnant economy that will limit the ability of new graduates to live independently, and the occasional breakdown in families that leaves grandparents serving as parents, it will often be a necessity for older people to be able to have younger people reside with them.</p>
<h4 id="483fa83d-009"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-12 11:48</h4>
<p>Columbia 20something: Your and Sarah&rsquo;s points about the desirability of making Columbia less car-centric are well-taken. I think there is only so much that can be done here, since any future high-density area inColumbia won&rsquo;t be all that large (as wildelakemike points out) and Howard County as a whole will still be at a level of density that will make a car a necessity once you get beyond Town Center. Having relative freedom of movement is a core suburban value, one that bus systems and taxis can&rsquo;t really address. Perhaps the solution here is some sort of system by which people in Town Center could get access to cars on an on-demand basis, for example via commercial services like Zipcar that maintain their own fleets, commercial services like the proposed RelayRide that would allow people to rent their cars to others when they&rsquo;re not using them, or formal &ldquo;car co-op&rdquo; arrangements established among groups of people either on their own or under county or CA sponsorship.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>What is a sense of place?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/05/what-is-a-sense-of-place/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 05 Jun 2010 12:01:17 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/05/what-is-a-sense-of-place/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;So far I’ve written two posts discussing whether Columbia and Howard County have (or could have) a true “sense of place,” and I really haven’t defined what I mean by that term.  In a comment &lt;a href=&#34;http://0bject.wordpress.com/&#34;&gt;0bject&lt;/a&gt; (of &lt;a href=&#34;http://0bject.wordpress.com/patapscoholler/&#34;&gt;Patapsco Holler&lt;/a&gt; fame) attempted to help me out by giving some factors that help create a sense of place:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Uniqueness &amp;amp; desirability&amp;mdash;the latter of which is going to be different for different people.  . . .&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So far I’ve written two posts discussing whether Columbia and Howard County have (or could have) a true “sense of place,” and I really haven’t defined what I mean by that term.  In a comment <a href="http://0bject.wordpress.com/">0bject</a> (of <a href="http://0bject.wordpress.com/patapscoholler/">Patapsco Holler</a> fame) attempted to help me out by giving some factors that help create a sense of place:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Uniqueness &amp; desirability&mdash;the latter of which is going to be different for different people.  . . .</p>
<p>Natural, geological or ecological diversity, water, physical beauty including buildings &amp; homes, transportation, etc.  History, commerce, ethnicity &amp; spirituality.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>0bject also referred me to the “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sense_of_place">sense of place</a>” article on Wikipedia, which has some other useful attempts at a definition:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Places said to have a strong “sense of place” have a strong identity and character that is deeply felt by local inhabitants and by many visitors.  Sense of place is a social phenomenon that exists independently of any one individual’s perceptions or experiences, yet is dependent on human engagement for its existence.  Such a feeling may be derived from the natural environment, but is more often made up of a mix of natural and cultural features in the landscape, and generally includes the people who occupy the place.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I agree that a sense of place is ultimately a function of the people who inhabit a place, as much as it is a function of the physical attributes of the place itself, with the two often mutually reinforcing.  For example, the geographic compactness and built environment of Manhattan influences the way inhabitants interact with each other and express their personality, and that to some extent then influences the creation of physical spaces built to meet those inhabitants’ needs and desires.</p>
<p>The more salient point for Howard County though, and especially for Columbia, is that the human factors that go into a sense of place must be capable of being replicated from generation to generation, and from current residents to new residents.  It does no good to say that Columbia’s sense of place grows out of its history as a different kind of community, if the felt experience of that history resides solely the founding cohort that will pass from the scene in the next generation.  “Columbia” in that sense is now just a time, and no longer is a place.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="0303aea2-002">0bject (z9w3@BaltoCo.org) - 2010-06-05 17:16</h4>
<p>Hi Frank, Lots of good, big stuff here. An important idea that Wikipedia and you both touch upon is this sense of a place being &lsquo;deeply felt by local inhabitants and by many visitors&rsquo;. The big WE &ndash; what is our shared perception? But also, how does a place touch each of us individually? At the Howard County Conservancy, there is a regional champion Yellow Tulip Poplar tree (Liriodendron tulipifera). To me, this is a big deal. To someone else, maybe not so much. But in some way it plays into the grandeur of the place &ndash; directly or indirectly. I&rsquo;ve never written a blog before, but now I think I have to get started. I&rsquo;ve run arts emailing lists in Baltimore City for 20 years. I&rsquo;m grateful to you, Chris Bachmann and Jessie X for letting me comment on your blog sites. Now it&rsquo;s time for me to reciprocate in kind. Very busy right now, but will try to get to this in coming weeks. I&rsquo;ll start with &lsquo;a sense of place&rsquo; as it relates to Howard County &amp; environs. @0bject aka Richard :)</p>
<h4 id="0303aea2-003"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-06-05 19:22</h4>
<p>Hi again, Richard, Here&rsquo;s an early welcome to the world of blogging. I find it a wonderful experience for clarifying my own thoughts and learning from others&rsquo; perspectives. Don&rsquo;t be swayed by rules about how often you need to post. Post as you will, in waves and cycles if need be. And do make sure you get listed on <a href="https://www.hocoblogs.com">www.hocoblogs.com</a>. It&rsquo;s free and easy. <a href="http://hocoblogs.com/submit">http://hocoblogs.com/submit</a>_blog.html</p>
<h4 id="0303aea2-004">Young at Heart (2youngatheart@gmail.com) - 2010-06-05 22:56</h4>
<p>I was talking to my spouse about this earlier today, and we decided that some of the things that we love about Columbia and that make it special are the many lovely walking/biking paths, the general beauty of the area, the many amenities (gyms, pools, skating rink, art center, tennis courts, etc.), the close-by village centers, the good schools, and the diversity of the population. I think these factors combine to give Columbia somewhat of a sense of place. If we actually had a downtown area, we would really have a more complete city with a stronger sense of place.</p>
<h4 id="0303aea2-005"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-06 02:25</h4>
<p>Young at Heart: Thanks for your comment. I agree that walking trails and other things you mention can help in the quest to create a sense of place &ndash; not the whole story but part of the story. It&rsquo;s part of my &ldquo;better suburb&rdquo; theme &ndash; which I still need to post about :-)</p>
<h4 id="0303aea2-006">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-06-06 12:49</h4>
<p>When Columbia was in its relative infancy, Rouse attempted to create a sense of place, albeit mostly for marketing purposes. I can remember going to the Exhibit Center on multiple occasions just to see the slide show describing how all the amenities available in Columbia would allow everyone to participate in the community. Nothing was impossible in Columbia. The so-called &ldquo;Columbia concept&rdquo; was being born. This &ldquo;Columbia concept,&rdquo; however one might want to define it, created the core to our sense of place. Unfortunately, what The Rouse Company gave, it then took away. The Columbia concept was minimized by a variety of events that occurred. Mostly, The Rouse Company deviated from its plan for Columbia when it reacquired the GE Appliance Park (now Gateway) in the late 1980&rsquo;s. All the energy was sucked out of the downtown area. Instead, we got poorly conceived apartments and condos, rather than a real plan for the downtown. In addition, the vision of the villages changed. For example, River Hill has none of the economic diversity that the other villages have. I can remember Rouse executives canvassing Columbia to get signatures so that only higher-end housing be provided in River Hill. All that is history. And, paraphrasing enormously, a sense of place occurs while others are planning. The question being debated in the community right now - and the question that is that is at the core of the debate about downtown Columbia - is this: are we going to be just a better suburb? or are we going to adopt an urbanized Columbia center so that we can be the New City that was promised so long ago by Jim Rouse?</p>
<h4 id="0303aea2-007">Columbia 20something (msfennell@gmail.com) - 2010-06-06 15:34</h4>
<p>I agree. My husband and I moved to Columbia because of the parks, bike paths, libraries, Merriweather, and shopping. We like how everything is &ldquo;right here&rdquo; and we don&rsquo;t have to jump in our cars several times a day just to buy milk or drop off some library books. I love riding my bike to the farmer&rsquo;s market or to one of the many lakes. I like the festivals and am super excited about the kinetic sculpture parade coming up. Columbia is convenient and has many fun activities, which makes it a very good place to live. But not great. To be great, convenience and periodic fun aren&rsquo;t enough. There need to be unique traits that really make the town come alive. For example, Starbucks is a nice enough place. It has comfortable chairs and customizable beverage options. The music and ambiance are unoffensive. It&rsquo;s an all right place to get a cup of coffee. But there&rsquo;s nothing really novel or unique about Starbucks. You&rsquo;ll find coffee shops like them all over the world. If you want to go to a place that is more than just a cafe, but is instead a destination, you will seek out a place that was laid out with both thought and creativity. This might mean mosaics hand-laid into the floor or art from local artists on the walls. There is a cafe in Tokyo in which the barista will chose a unique cup for you based on your personality. These are a few examples, but concepts like &ldquo;uniformity&rdquo; and &ldquo;replicable&rdquo; have no place in creating a destination. In the same way, Columbia needs to shift away from being simply a better suburb to being a unique destination and a unique home.</p>
<h4 id="0303aea2-001"><a href="http://0bject.org/2010/06/02/welcome-patapsco-holler/">Welcome to Patapsco Holler « Øbject ∙ org</a> - 2010-06-08 22:02</h4>
<p>[&hellip;] blog posts by Chris Bachmann (@ChrisBachmann — on the future of Columbia Town Center) &amp; Frank Hecker (@Hecker — on what is a sense of place).  Specifically, what is or could be Howard [&hellip;]</p>
<h4 id="0303aea2-009"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-09 23:30</h4>
<p>Columbia 20something: Thanks for your comment, which is very much on point. Rather than reply to it here, I&rsquo;ll point you to my next post where I have more to say on the subject.</p>
<h4 id="0303aea2-008"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-09 23:35</h4>
<p>wildelakemike: You ask &ldquo;are we going to be just a better suburb? or are we going to adopt an urbanized Columbia center &hellip;?&rdquo; I personally don&rsquo;t see these as necessarily mutually exclusive, since I think that part of being a &ldquo;better suburb&rdquo; in the 21st century will include having a higher-density core.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>To the pseudonymous commenters of Howard County</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/03/to-the-pseudonymous-commenters-of-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 03 Jun 2010 20:57:23 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/03/to-the-pseudonymous-commenters-of-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I see the issue of anonymous commenters is heating up again, with &lt;a href=&#34;http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;Wordbones’s decision&lt;/a&gt; to require commenters to have a valid userid with Google or another service.  (This isn’t how Wordbones presented the decision, but due to the limitations of Blogspot that’s how it ended up working in practice.)  As &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/06/case-for-anonymous-commenters.html&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising noted&lt;/a&gt;, we also had a conversation on this at the HoCo Blogtail party last night.  I was particularly shocked to hear during that conversation that in the past some local bloggers have deliberately outed anonymous or pseudonymous commenters who offended them for some reason; I think such behavior constitutes a major breach of trust between a blogger and his or her readers.  &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocohayduke.blogspot.com/search?q=anonymous&#34;&gt;HoCo Hayduke also posted a link&lt;/a&gt; to past blog posts on this general topic.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I see the issue of anonymous commenters is heating up again, with <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/">Wordbones’s decision</a> to require commenters to have a valid userid with Google or another service.  (This isn’t how Wordbones presented the decision, but due to the limitations of Blogspot that’s how it ended up working in practice.)  As <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/06/case-for-anonymous-commenters.html">HoCo Rising noted</a>, we also had a conversation on this at the HoCo Blogtail party last night.  I was particularly shocked to hear during that conversation that in the past some local bloggers have deliberately outed anonymous or pseudonymous commenters who offended them for some reason; I think such behavior constitutes a major breach of trust between a blogger and his or her readers.  <a href="http://hocohayduke.blogspot.com/search?q=anonymous">HoCo Hayduke also posted a link</a> to past blog posts on this general topic.</p>
<p>I still stand by <a href="/2010/05/19/to-the-anonymous-commenters-of-howard-county/">my previously stated position</a> on discouraging (e.g., through deletion of comments) truly anonymous comments, i.e., where the commenter doesn’t use a distinctive pseudonym.  However since this subject is so controversial, and since the online norms I’m used to don’t seem to always be the rule in Howard County blogging, I thought it would be useful to make more explicit my own policies regarding commenting on this blog.</p>
<p>Without further ado, here are my commitments to you, my readers and potential commenters:</p>
<ul>
<li>I will not moderate comments or require them to be pre-approved.</li>
<li>I will not require that you be registered with WordPress or any other service in order to submit a comment.</li>
<li>I encourage you to submit comments using a pseudonym if you wish; I ask only that you use a distinctive pseudonym and use it consistently for all your comments.</li>
<li>Although WordPress requires you to enter an email address when submitting a comment, I will not require that you supply a working address.  If you do supply a working email address then I will not use that address for any  purpose other than contacting you regarding one of your comments as discussed below.</li>
<li>I will not attempt to determine your real-life identity.  If I should learn of your real-life identity (whether from yourself or someone else) then I will not disclose that identity to others.</li>
<li>I will delete only anonymous comments and comments that appear to be spam.</li>
<li>I reserve the right to edit your comment if you are wildly off-topic, engage in persistent personal abuse of other commenters, or otherwise go outside the boundaries of what I consider to be acceptable online behavior.  I expect to have to do this rarely if at all.  If I do edit a comment then I will make it clear in the comments section what I have done and why.  I will also attempt to notify you via email if you provided a working address.</li>
<li>In my posts and in my replies to your comments I will strive to follow the rule “<a href="http://sluggerotoole.com/2005/03/09/glossary_playing_the_ball_not_the_man/">play the ball, not the man</a>” and fairly engage the arguments that you and others make.</li>
</ul>
<p>Thanks for your attention, and for reading and commenting on my blog.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="eea7502a-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-06-04 13:26</h4>
<p>Your last point, I think is the crux: Play the ball, not the man. If those who feel it&rsquo;s so important to be able to comment without using their real, given names would simply &ldquo;play the ball, not the man,&rdquo; things would be so much more civil. It&rsquo;s when the anoni use the cover of nothingness to attack individuals that pollutes the stream of comments. It&rsquo;s odd to me, that those who seem to fight for the right to be anoni are really the ones who are ruining their own party by their own behaviors. Rights and responsibilities always travel together. Were the anoni of #theHoCo to genuinely respect the right to post as such, they would, as you say, &ldquo;Play the ball, not the man.&rdquo; Rock on, @hecker.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Fun times at Pure Wine Cafe</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/02/fun-times-at-pure-wine-cafe/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 02 Jun 2010 22:45:54 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/02/fun-times-at-pure-wine-cafe/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Thanks to all those who showed up at tonight’s HoCo Blogtail meetup at &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.purewinecafe.com/&#34;&gt;Pure Wine Café&lt;/a&gt;.  Blogs represented included &lt;a href=&#34;http://annethologie.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;Annethologie&lt;/a&gt; (more active recently as &lt;a href=&#34;http://twitter.com/annathema&#34;&gt;@Annathema&lt;/a&gt; on Twitter), &lt;a href=&#34;http://chrisbachmann.com/&#34;&gt;ChrisBachmann.com&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://columbiacompass.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;Columbia Compass&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://morucci.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;Do I Amuse You&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&#34;http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/&#34;&gt;Hometown Columbia&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&#34;http://0bject.wordpress.com/PatapscoHoller/&#34;&gt;Patapsco Holler&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;We had some fun conversations about Howard County politics and related issues, though I have to say I’m a bit leery of going down that particular rabbit hole.  To be high-minded, I’d prefer to maintain a &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin&#34;&gt;beginner’s mind&lt;/a&gt; as much as possible.  To be low-minded, ignorance makes it easier and more fun to blog since I can put forward semi-informed opinions and don’t have to worry about the nuance inherent in the real world.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks to all those who showed up at tonight’s HoCo Blogtail meetup at <a href="http://www.purewinecafe.com/">Pure Wine Café</a>.  Blogs represented included <a href="http://annethologie.blogspot.com/">Annethologie</a> (more active recently as <a href="http://twitter.com/annathema">@Annathema</a> on Twitter), <a href="http://chrisbachmann.com/">ChrisBachmann.com</a>, <a href="http://columbiacompass.blogspot.com/">Columbia Compass</a>, <a href="http://morucci.blogspot.com/">Do I Amuse You</a>, <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/">HoCo Rising</a>, <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/">Hometown Columbia</a>, and <a href="http://0bject.wordpress.com/PatapscoHoller/">Patapsco Holler</a>.</p>
<p>We had some fun conversations about Howard County politics and related issues, though I have to say I’m a bit leery of going down that particular rabbit hole.  To be high-minded, I’d prefer to maintain a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoshin">beginner’s mind</a> as much as possible.  To be low-minded, ignorance makes it easier and more fun to blog since I can put forward semi-informed opinions and don’t have to worry about the nuance inherent in the real world.</p>
<p>Finally, I wanted to note the hospitality shown us by PJ Strain and the staff of Pure Wine Café.  PJ in particular went above and beyond to make us feel welcome.  I hope we get the HoCo Blogtail meetups back on a regular schedule, and get back to Pure Wine Café sometime in the next few months.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="0e455e5f-001">b.santos (collumbiacompass@yahoo.com) - 2010-06-03 17:54</h4>
<p>Frank, Great time last night! Thanks for hosting a blogtail hour.</p>
<h4 id="0e455e5f-002"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-06-03 19:53</h4>
<p>A wrap up the social capital we helped create for Pure Wine Cafe: <a href="http://scr.bi/99HyYe">http://scr.bi/99HyYe</a>. Thanks again for being such a great co-host, Frank.</p>
<h4 id="0e455e5f-003"><a href="http://morucci.blogspot.com/" title="mikemorucci@yahoo.com">Mike Morucci</a> - 2010-06-05 14:14</h4>
<p>Hi Frank! Thanks so much for cohosting this great event. I&rsquo;m with you - politics is interesting but I shy away. It&rsquo;s not my passion. Always a wonderful group and I learn new things about different folks each time. I also love the way we try to support local businesses, just like local bloggers. Kudos! ~Mike</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A sense of place in Howard County?  ctd.</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/02/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county-ctd/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 02 Jun 2010 00:15:41 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/06/02/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county-ctd/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/25/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county/&#34;&gt;recent post&lt;/a&gt; I questioned whether Howard County and Columbia had a true “sense of place” and, if not, whether there were anything that we as residents of Howard County could do about it.  This post and the next contain my tentative answers.  As I wrote before, there’s nothing profound here, it’s basically me thinking out loud in a blue sky-ish sort of way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To answer the first question: I don’t think Howard County or even Columbia proper have a true sense of place.  To some degree it’s the sort of question that if you have to ask it then you can be sure the answer is no.  But, you might say, what about Jim Rouse’s vision?  What about Columbia as a “shining example of . . . a well-planned community,” as Alan Klein recently put it?&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a <a href="/2010/05/25/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county/">recent post</a> I questioned whether Howard County and Columbia had a true “sense of place” and, if not, whether there were anything that we as residents of Howard County could do about it.  This post and the next contain my tentative answers.  As I wrote before, there’s nothing profound here, it’s basically me thinking out loud in a blue sky-ish sort of way.</p>
<p>To answer the first question: I don’t think Howard County or even Columbia proper have a true sense of place.  To some degree it’s the sort of question that if you have to ask it then you can be sure the answer is no.  But, you might say, what about Jim Rouse’s vision?  What about Columbia as a “shining example of . . . a well-planned community,” as Alan Klein recently put it?</p>
<p>The problem I have with that is that I don’t think it equates to a true sense of place.  If I go to New York City, for example, I can appreciate its sense of place and even participate in it myself as a visitor or possible resident without having to have (figuratively or literally) sat at the feet of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiorello_La_Guardia">Fiorello La Guardia</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_M._Tweed">Boss Tweed</a>, or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Stuyvesant">Peter Stuyvesant</a>.  But when it comes to Columbia it seems all too often that “you just had to have been there,” where “there” equals “Wilde Lake, 1967, talking with Jim Rouse.”</p>
<p>In my case I’ve thought about reading a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Better-Places-Lives-Biography-James/dp/0874209196/?tag=frankhecker-20">biography of Jim Rouse</a> or a <a href="http://www.amazon.com/City-Upon-History-Columbia-Maryland/dp/1596290676/?tag=frankhecker-20">history of Columbia’s history</a>.  But in the end I decided it was a waste of time.  Howard County and Columbia are what they are, and if I can’t figure out the essence of them based on just my living here then that’s probably more their fault than mine.</p>
<p>So here’s my naïve take on the “essence of Columbia,” and by extension the essence of Howard County.  (Sorry, those of you who live in western Howard or elsewhere and don’t like Columbia; you should just get over it.  As far as anyone else is concerned Howard County <em>is</em> Columbia, at least to a first approximation.)</p>
<ul>
<li>A better suburb.  Stripped of all the high-flown rhetoric, the sales pitch for Columbia was simply that it was a better suburb, relative to other suburbs at the time.  (A key point, to which I’ll return.)  It offered the things people traditionally have valued in suburbs&mdash;a single-family home with a yard, freedom to drive and park where you wish, good schools, a safe refuge from the social ills of the city&mdash;in a professionally-designed master-planned package.</li>
<li>A more socially diverse and inclusive environment.  Again, this was relative to other suburbs at the time; no one would confuse Columbia with (say) the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Village,_Manhattan">East Village</a>, either then or now.</li>
<li>A prosperous economy driven by steadily growing government spending.  As I’ve <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/">previously noted</a>, it was this that enabled Columbia to maintain a rare combination of relatively high household incomes and relatively low income inequality.  This combination was not unique to Howard County (many DC-area jurisdictions have it as well), but it certainly helped support and reinforce Columbia’s self-image.</li>
</ul>
<p>I believe the above factors are what truly distinguished Columbia, and that many of what people think of as unique and essential features of Columbia (the village centers, interfaith centers, and so on) are simply particular manifestations of how those factors played out in history.</p>
<p>That means that if we want to preserve what was seen as special about Columbia, and perhaps have a chance at building a true sense of place in Howard County, we need to look to the essentials and not the <a href="http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/epiphenomenon">epiphenomena</a>, and determine how those essentials might evolve and be sustained in the 21st century.  My (off-the-cuff) thoughts on this topic in my next blog post.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-001">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-06-02 10:14</h4>
<p>Good post. Gets one thinking early in the morning! One issue about which we may disagree was the original purpose for Columbia. Not wanting to invoke Jim Rouse&rsquo;s intentions too often, Rouse was not building just a &ldquo;better suburb.&rdquo; He hoped to build a &ldquo;New City.&rdquo; What was a New City? Certainly, an entity supported by suburban living, exemplified in the villages of Columbia. But the core of Columbia, the Town Center, was always meant to be a denser amalgam of residences, businesses and retail. For example, Rouse built the American City Building and what is now the Columbia Association Building to give that sense of place you describe, and both were rather substantial high-rises for 1967. Additional high-rises were built during Jim Rouse&rsquo;s tenure, and, no doubt, if the GE Appliance Park was not sold back to Rouse in 1988, downtown Columbia would have been built out long ago. And, it would have looked like a city, not like a suburb. Indeed, when I first leased office space in downtown Columbia in 1987, the leasing agent proudly proclaimed that there would be 15 additional high-rises built over the next several years, including some residential high-rises. In fact, only four of those 15 additional buildings were ever built due to Gateway. So, we were to be a city all along, at least in the core of Columbia. The post-Jim Rouse version of the Rouse Company changed all that when it developed Gateway. So, it&rsquo;s now downtown Columbia&rsquo;s turn to seek its own identity - the New City Jim Rouse always envisioned.</p>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-02 12:55</h4>
<p>wildelakemike: Thanks for your usual thoughtful comments. You make some good points here, and I don&rsquo;t mean to deny Rouse&rsquo;s interest in promoting city life in the context of Columbia. However I would counter as follows: First, Columbia&rsquo;s city-like aspects, even if they&rsquo;d been expanded, strike me as basically a suburban take on a city: higher density, yes, but at heart a tamed version of what an actual city would be like. (Note that I don&rsquo;t think this is necessarily a bad thing, as I&rsquo;ll discuss in my next post.) It&rsquo;s similar I think to what Rouse&rsquo;s &ldquo;festival marketplaces&rdquo; turned out to be, namely an urban concept reimagined to appeal to suburban sensibilities. Second, whatever Rouse&rsquo;s original intentions regarding higher-density, they were not followed through on. From my point of view this indicates that creating a &ldquo;new American city&rdquo; was in the end not essential to the view of Columbia as it evolved in the minds of its developers and its residents. As we say in sales, it was a &ldquo;nice to have&rdquo;, not a &ldquo;must have&rdquo;.</p>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-003"><a href="http://www.0bject.org/PatapscoHoller" title="Richard3@BaltoCo.org">0bject</a> - 2010-06-02 14:09</h4>
<p>Nice writing, and I&rsquo;m going to be thinking about it, Frank. Here&rsquo;s a question that I&rsquo;ve thought about in the past. Does it have to be a &lsquo;sense&rsquo; of place, or can it simply be &lsquo;place&rsquo; that something somewhere has? A similar question might be, can a person have &lsquo;humor&rsquo;, or only a &lsquo;sense&rsquo; of humor? &lsquo;Place&rsquo; is often associated with antiquity or history. Rivers have place. Ellicott City is a place made up of many historical places, many senses of place. One challenge would be, can we create new places that have senses of place?</p>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-004"><a href="http://www.0bject.org/PatapscoHoller" title="Richard3@BaltoCo.org">0bject</a> - 2010-06-02 15:29</h4>
<p>Further thinking about this, what are the variables that comprise a sense of place? Uniqueness &amp; desirability &ndash; the latter of which is going to be different for different people. To some people, HoCo is too crowded; to others it&rsquo;s too isolated. Natural, geological or ecological diversity, water, physical beauty including buildings &amp; homes, transportation, etc. History, commerce, ethnicity &amp; spirituality. Not particulary helpful, but Wikipedia has this to say about &lsquo;placelessness&rsquo; &hellip; &hellip; Places that lack a &ldquo;sense of place&rdquo; are sometimes referred to as &ldquo;placeless&rdquo; or &ldquo;inauthentic.&rdquo; Placeless landscapes are those that have no special relationship to the places in which they are located—they could be anywhere. Roadside strip shopping malls, gas/petrol stations and convenience stores, fast food chains, and chain department stores are often cited as examples of placeless landscape elements. Even some historic sites or districts that have been heavily commercialized (commodious) for tourism and new housing estates are sometimes defined as having lost their sense of place. A classic description of such placeless places is Gertrude Stein&rsquo;s &ldquo;there is no there there&rdquo; &hellip; <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sense">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sense</a>_of_place</p>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-005"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-03 01:03</h4>
<p>0bject: Thanks for the comment, and also for the Wikipedia link. You&rsquo;ve prompted me to think more closely about what I mean by &ldquo;sense of place&rdquo;. Rather than respond here I&rsquo;ll probably make that the subject of my next blog post.</p>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-006">SharonG (sharonrgilbert@comcast.net) - 2010-06-03 02:46</h4>
<p>I wonder what you mean by low income inequality?</p>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-007">0bject (z9w3@BaltoCo.org) - 2010-06-03 02:49</h4>
<p>Frank, Nice meeting you tonight &amp; @JessieX &amp; @HocoBlogs at the Pure Wine Cafe. Many more good talks to come! @0bject Richard</p>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-008"><a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2010/06/02/tonight-hocoblogs-blogtail-party-at-pure-wine-cafe/">Tonight! – Hocoblogs BlogTail party at Pure Wine Cafe « Jessie X</a> - 2010-06-03 17:10</h4>
<p>[&hellip;] be at Pure Wine Cafe in Historic Ellicott City tonight from 6:15 – 7:45 p.m. My co-host, Frank Hecker, has been in conversation with the manager at Pure Wine Cafe and told me last night that [&hellip;]</p>
<h4 id="cf99a80d-009"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-06-04 01:22</h4>
<p>SharonG: Rather than trying to do an off-the-cuff definition of &ldquo;low income inequality&rdquo; I&rsquo;ll simply point you to a <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/">series of posts</a> I wrote on how income inequality is measured and how Howard County rates compared to other jurisdictions.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>June 2 meetup at Pure Wine Cafe</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/29/june-2-meetup-at-pure-wine-cafe/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 29 May 2010 09:02:17 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/29/june-2-meetup-at-pure-wine-cafe/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I should have mentioned this earlier, but better late than never: I’m co-hosting (with &lt;a href=&#34;http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/&#34;&gt;Jessie X&lt;/a&gt;) a blogger meetup this Wednesday evening, June 2, at &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.purewinecafe.com/&#34;&gt;Pure Wine Café&lt;/a&gt; in downtown Ellicott City, from 6:15 pm to 7:45 pm.  I went to Pure Wine Café a while back, &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2009/07/09/relaxing-at-pure-wine-cafe/&#34;&gt;liked it&lt;/a&gt;, and tried to co-host a previous meetup only to mess it up through my own stupidity.  (If you’re planning to meet somewhere you should call ahead and verify it’s open.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I should have mentioned this earlier, but better late than never: I’m co-hosting (with <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/">Jessie X</a>) a blogger meetup this Wednesday evening, June 2, at <a href="http://www.purewinecafe.com/">Pure Wine Café</a> in downtown Ellicott City, from 6:15 pm to 7:45 pm.  I went to Pure Wine Café a while back, <a href="/2009/07/09/relaxing-at-pure-wine-cafe/">liked it</a>, and tried to co-host a previous meetup only to mess it up through my own stupidity.  (If you’re planning to meet somewhere you should call ahead and verify it’s open.)</p>
<p>So now we’re going back again, finally, and if you’re a Howard County blogger or a reader of local blogs you’re welcome to stop by.  You can RSVP on the <a href="http://hocoblogs-pure-wine-cafe.eventbrite.com/">event page</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="6c82a5a6-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-06-01 01:37</h4>
<p>Thanks for posting this note, Frank. And more so, thanks for being the co-host for the June party. :-) See you soon.</p>
<h4 id="6c82a5a6-002"><a href="http://farlaf2000.blogspot.com" title="farlaf2000@earthlink.net">Clayton</a> - 2010-06-02 10:42</h4>
<p>I only just found out about this event through Tales of Two Cities. What a nice idea! I&rsquo;d like to join this evening, but I can&rsquo;t promise that I&rsquo;ll be there. (Meanwhile, you&rsquo;ve given me an idea to do something similar.) I write a blog called &ldquo;Felis pushkini&rdquo; &ndash; mainly about opera and other music and arts in the greater Baltimore-DC area. My links include organizations in Columbia, and sometimes I play food or garden blogging with a focus on Columbia (but I leave most of the food blogging to HowChow and friends).</p>
<h4 id="6c82a5a6-003"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-06-03 02:34</h4>
<p>Clayton, Hello! Hey, one thing you can do with your food and other HoCo blogging is link your comment to other blogger&rsquo;s posts. For example, if you write about a restaurant that HowChow blogged about, write a comment on his blog with a link back to your site. This way the community benefits from additional perspectives, and hopefully, both bloggers get more local readers. HowChow is pretty cool with this (as long as you &ldquo;choose civility&rdquo;); equally, you can do the same thing over at hocoloco-girl.com, a site I worked on years back.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Doesn’t Wilde Lake have a grocery store?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/26/doesnt-wilde-lake-have-a-grocery-store/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 26 May 2010 23:35:47 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/26/doesnt-wilde-lake-have-a-grocery-store/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;My apologies, I was going to work on my next post about a sense of place in Howard County, but got distracted by something I read in Alan Klein’s announcement of his candidacy for county council (as reported by &lt;a href=&#34;http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/05/klein-in-full.html&#34;&gt;HoCo Rising&lt;/a&gt;):&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I also join the residents of this district in . . . requiring that certain services, such as a basic grocery store be considered required elements in a Columbia village center.  . . .&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My apologies, I was going to work on my next post about a sense of place in Howard County, but got distracted by something I read in Alan Klein’s announcement of his candidacy for county council (as reported by <a href="http://hocorising.blogspot.com/2010/05/klein-in-full.html">HoCo Rising</a>):</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I also join the residents of this district in . . . requiring that certain services, such as a basic grocery store be considered required elements in a Columbia village center.  . . .</p>
<p>I support the Wilde Lake community in its quest for that basic grocery store.  This is not merely a matter of economics or business negotiations.  It is a matter of social justice.  The people of Wilde Lake who live near their village center and who can’t afford or are not able to drive need access to the basics of life&mdash;food for their table, milk for their kids, diapers, etc.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>I’m just a naïve outsider from Ellicott City, but this is something I’ve never understood.  I go to Wilde Lake Village Center all the time, and it doesn’t exactly strike me as a “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_desert">food desert</a>.”  In particular, I regularly go to shop at <a href="http://www.davidsnaturalmarket.com/retailer/store_templates/shell_id_1.asp?storeID=CF1D83C59A914DEEB1F49F78C9BE5747">David’s Natural Market</a>, which certainly has food for the table, has milk for the kids, and may even have diapers for all I know (I’ve never checked).</p>
<p>So why exactly doesn’t David’s qualify as a grocery store according to Klein and others?  Is it because it isn’t a <em>real</em> grocery store (doesn’t have national brands, has a limited selection)?  Because it’s not the right <em>kind</em> of grocery store (patronized primarily by “outsiders,” too “crunchy” for the people of Wilde Lake)?  Because it’s not a <em>basic</em> grocery store (which I presume is a code word for “cheap”)?  I don’t mean to be snarky here, I’m genuinely interested in what’s going on here (beyond just nostalgia for the Giant that was and is no more).</p>
<p>I’m not an expert on the economics of retail development, but I presume that if the economics were favorable for a traditional supermarket at Wilde Lake then the Giant would still be there.  Klein seems to assume that the county council has some God-like power to change those economics.  (“And the council said, Let there be a grocery in Wilde Lake: and there was a grocery.”)  If the major issue is cost, and if this really is a matter of social justice as Klein notes, then why not just identify those residents of Wilde Lake who “live near their village center and who can’t afford or are not able to drive” and provide them direct cash subsidies to shop at David’s?  Let’s run the numbers on this:</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.wildelakecommunityassociation.org/node/6">Per the Wilde Lake community association</a> there are about six to seven thousand people living in Wilde Lake.  (The figure of 6,244 is given for the 2000 census.)  Let’s assume that about a thousand of them (about 15%) fall into the category that Klein is concerned about.</li>
<li><a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm">Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics</a> in 2008 the average “consumer unit” consisted of 2.5 people and spent $3,744 on food consumed at home (as opposed to eating out), or about $1,500 per person.</li>
<li>Let’s assume that prices at David’s Natural Market are 20% higher than those at a traditional supermarket like Giant, etc.  This would translate into an extra $300 in food costs per person per year (20% of $1,500).</li>
</ul>
<p>So, for $300,000 a year (a thousand people times $300/year) Howard County could enable Wilde Lake residents to shop at David’s who otherwise couldn’t afford either to shop there or to drive elsewhere.  Now my number may be a bit off&mdash;maybe there are more people in Wilde Lake who need to be subsidized, and maybe David’s price premium is more than I think it is.  But it still seems to me that any affordability issue could be addressed by a county expenditure well less than $1M per year, and if this is really an issue of social justice then there would be some justification for the expense.</p>
<p>Also, it’s not as if this sort of thing is unprecedented in Howard County.  <a href="http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-05-13/news/bs-ho-council-health-20100512_1_liddy-garcia-bunuel-healthy-howard-final-county-council">As reported in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em></a>, the Howard County council recently approved 2010 funding of $500,000 for <a href="http://www.healthyhowardplan.org/">Healthy Howard</a>, a program that is currently serving 621 people and could serve up to 750, for a cost of about $670 per person per year.  This is over twice what I’ve proposed above to address the Wilde Lake grocery problem.</p>
<p>Now, I’ll fess up: I’m writing here partly with tongue in cheek.  (“What, you’re going to tax us more so that people in Wilde Lake can buy <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tofurkey">tofurkey</a> at David’s!  The very idea!”)  But I’m also trying to make a serious point: If the county can’t simply wave a magic wand and make a grocery appear in Wilde Lake (as I and others believe), and if there’s really a serious question of social justice here (as Alan Klein claims), then Klein and other who agree with him owe it to the taxpayers of Howard County to actually put a price tag on solving the problem that they claim exists, and make the case to the voters that paying that price is worth it in order to make Columbia and Howard County the sort of place we all want it to be.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="142caab3-001">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-05-27 10:20</h4>
<p>Frank, as my moniker would imply, I live in Wilde Lake. Yes, there is support for David&rsquo;s, and many people scratch their heads when demands are made by some for a &ldquo;real&rdquo; or a &ldquo;basic&rdquo; grocery store. Price premiums are not the issue. Most who want a grocery store would be delighted with a Trader Joe&rsquo;s or other similar high-end grocery. Some would claim that David&rsquo;s doesn&rsquo;t carry what real people need - perhaps tissue paper or the like. A &ldquo;grocery store&rdquo; by any name is what is being demanded, so long as it can take over the Giant space. No, the real issue is that Kimco is being blamed for Giant leaving; moreover, Kimco is being blamed for not actively trying to find a suitable replacement. Indeed, there are conspiracy theorists out there that believe that Kimco is actively trying to chase all the merchants out so they can build residences on the Village Center site or put it to some other more lucrative use. What also is happening is that some residents see a grocery store as the only kind of anchor that will attract people back to Wilde Lake so that the Village can return to the glory of the old days. A grocery store stands for the values inculcated into Columbia and Wilde Lake by Jim Rouse. Anything less would violate the original Columbia compact, or so the argument goes. Your arguments all make sense and have been made, over and over. The problem is that they are insufficient to overcome the emotional response to a changing environment. And, in this case, Kimco is making it easy to be framed as the bad guy in all of this because (i) they are not doing a good job of communicating and interacting with the community, a la GGP; and (ii) the poor economy continues, making it very difficult to find good new retailers for the Village Center. So, logic is not at work here. It is all emotion. And any argument that can be made is being made to support the thesis that Wilde Lake must have a grocery store. And, that is unfortunate because adaptive reuse of properties can often create incredible opportunities, something Wilde Lake sorely needs right now.</p>
<h4 id="142caab3-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-05-27 11:44</h4>
<p>wildelakemike: Thanks for providing some background on this. As I said, I&rsquo;m not familiar with the details of this controversy, but your account seems reasonable. I&rsquo;d sum it up as follows: &ldquo;We want a basic grocery store&rdquo; is a proxy for &ldquo;We want our Giant back&rdquo;, which in turn is a proxy for &ldquo;We want our Columbia back&rdquo;.</p>
<h4 id="142caab3-003">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-05-27 18:11</h4>
<p>Pretty mcuh, that&rsquo;s it, Frank. The sad truth of the matter is that times have changed. No longer do we have &ldquo;one earner&rdquo; households of young families spending time at the Village Center. Further, grocery shopping itself has changed, with all of the options that are available or due to become available, such as Trader Joe&rsquo;s, Wegman&rsquo;s, etc. The myth of Columbia seems to be getting in the way of the reality of Columbia.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>A sense of place in Howard County?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/25/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 25 May 2010 23:02:54 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/25/a-sense-of-place-in-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;A little over a year ago the Howard County Chamber of Commerce and other local organizations sponsored a &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.bizmonthly.com/4_2009/8.shtml&#34;&gt;presentation&lt;/a&gt; by &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Florida&#34;&gt;Richard Florida&lt;/a&gt; of “&lt;a href=&#34;http://www.creativeclass.com/&#34;&gt;creative class&lt;/a&gt;” fame.  Florida has had his share of &lt;a href=&#34;http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2010/01/06/critics-lambast-urban-guru-florida.aspx&#34;&gt;critics&lt;/a&gt; over the years, and I came across one of the more pointed criticisms in a recent &lt;a href=&#34;http://speedbird.wordpress.com/2010/04/18/people-are-creative-industries-not-so-much/&#34;&gt;blog post&lt;/a&gt; by &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Greenfield&#34;&gt;Adam Greenfield&lt;/a&gt;, a frequent writer on issues relating to technology and urbanism:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;blockquote&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I believe there’s a single factor that makes one or another region more attractive to the kinds of people and investment that apparently now signify above all others.  . . .  It’s a factor I think of as organic sense of place.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A little over a year ago the Howard County Chamber of Commerce and other local organizations sponsored a <a href="http://www.bizmonthly.com/4_2009/8.shtml">presentation</a> by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Florida">Richard Florida</a> of “<a href="http://www.creativeclass.com/">creative class</a>” fame.  Florida has had his share of <a href="http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2010/01/06/critics-lambast-urban-guru-florida.aspx">critics</a> over the years, and I came across one of the more pointed criticisms in a recent <a href="http://speedbird.wordpress.com/2010/04/18/people-are-creative-industries-not-so-much/">blog post</a> by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Greenfield">Adam Greenfield</a>, a frequent writer on issues relating to technology and urbanism:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>I believe there’s a single factor that makes one or another region more attractive to the kinds of people and investment that apparently now signify above all others.  . . .  It’s a factor I think of as organic sense of place.</p>
<p>Amsterdam, Barcelona, San Francisco, New York and London all have persistent local ways of doing and being, and that’s what makes them compelling places to work and settle, despite the inevitable hassles attendant upon doing so.  These lifeways obviously evolved over historical time, and the harsh truth we can conclude from this is that there’s no turnkey way to join their ranks, no book you can read or seminar you can attend that can tell you how to be one of them.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Greenfield goes on to point out that a city doesn’t necessarily need creative class cachet in order to be successful:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>If all you care about in the end is the flow of investment, talent and human capital through your town, you can probably save yourself the half-hearted effort at draping yourself with the Creative Industries mantle.  There are plenty of other ways to attract capital, and though they’re neither as glamorous nor as generative of the instant cred that goes hand-in-hand with having purchased this year’s model, they work and work reliably.</p>
<p>I’ve never heard anyone accuse Zürich, for example, of having a blistering DJ scene, cutting-edge galleries or forward-leaning popup shops.  Yet they seem to be doing OK when it comes to the cheddar, you know?  Better a world of places that are what they are, and stand or fall on their own terms, than the big nowhere of ten thousand certified-Creative towns and cities with me-too museums, starchitected event spaces and half-hearted film festivals.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>While I think Greenfield definitely has a point, I’m a bit of two minds as to what to do with it.  On the one hand I think his criticism of cookie-cutter community development schemes is spot-on.  For example, if we look at the <a href="http://www.chamberlink.org/hccc/ChamberWeekly/ChamberWeeklyApril_24_2009.htm#florida">recap of Florida’s presentation in Howard County</a> we find relatively generic advice like the following:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Creative Class are attracted to communities that offer:</p>
<ol>
<li>Basic economic security,</li>
<li>Opportunity (challenging job choices),</li>
<li>Leadership (visionary),</li>
<li>Diversity of people (open minded and welcoming that can be felt),</li>
<li>Quality of place (open space, natural beauty, clean air, green space)</li>
<li>Who’s there, what is going on, is there energy?</li>
</ol>
<p>The important message is to have a plan in place.  We all need to work together and we need to do it now.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Frankly this is pretty weak sauce, at least in terms of coming to grips with the particular history, present-day reality, and future prospects of Howard County and Columbia.</p>
<p>On the other hand, Greenfield’s advice is equally frustrating in a sense: If you want to live somewhere that has a genuine sense of place, you’ll just have to wait a couple of hundred years to see if one develops.  In local terms that would amount to ceding to Baltimore any genuine claims to urban character, and letting Columbia and Howard County settle into the torpor of bland suburbanism.  Can’t we do just a bit better than this?</p>
<p>I’ll take a shot at that question in a future blog post.  My tentative answers won’t be profound or earth-shattering, but that’s never stopped me posting before and won’t do so now.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="df1a4c1f-004">wildelakemike (mdavis@darslaw.com) - 2010-05-26 09:38</h4>
<p>Frankly, I have really enjoyed your posts. Thank you for taking the time and making the effort to give us all some different perspectives on the issues surrounding the future of Howard County. The only thought I would add to your piece today is that Mr. Florida provides our community a proactive path to defining our community, while Mr. Greenfield seems to advocate a more passive approach. Einstein&rsquo;s theory of relativity would suggest in this case (very presumptive on my part to even make this suggestion) that as our society evolves, it takes less and less time for changes to occur. This rapid evolution is being caused by a myriad of reasons, such as technological advances, increased populations, changing roles of the family, and wide-spread educational opportunities. So, Mr. Florida&rsquo;s suggestions at least gives us some hope of controlling the type of community we would like to become in this evolution. And, without doubt, his presentation last year at least got us, as a community, thinking a little differently. As have you!</p>
<h4 id="df1a4c1f-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-05-26 11:49</h4>
<p>wildelakemike: Thanks for the vote of confidence. As the title of my blog implies, I tend to be a bit of a dilettante when it comes to what interests me, and it&rsquo;s entirely possible that I&rsquo;ll burn out on HoCo blogging in a few weeks or months. But in the meantime I&rsquo;ll try to do the best job I can. I&rsquo;ll have some more thoughts of the Florida/anti-Florida issue in a future post.</p>
<h4 id="df1a4c1f-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-05-26 12:47</h4>
<p>Hmm. Hey, Frank, any thoughts of the phenomenon of Maryland being a county-based state and that we have little identity here around &ldquo;towns.&rdquo; I mean, I live in Columbia, Md., &ndash; not quite a town, and certainly with no center, promenade or core destination (save, The Mall, of course). I feel connected here as I&rsquo;ve lived here near 40 years, but the sense of &ldquo;place&rdquo; is so elusive. For me, and you could probably guess this was coming, social media has helped me feel more connected. I have more of a sense of what is going on and who is involved, connected and making things happen by reading my own personal newspaper, i.e. my Facebook news feed, blogs of my choosing and the local twitter stream (@hocoblogs). Anyhoo, off to Starbucks, cuz that&rsquo;s the most happening place I know in town. See you soon at the hocoblog-tail party coming up. Thanks again for being my co-host. <a href="http://hocoblogs-pure-wine-cafe.eventbrite.com/">http://hocoblogs-pure-wine-cafe.eventbrite.com/</a> Jessie</p>
<h4 id="df1a4c1f-002"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-05-27 02:11</h4>
<p>Jessie, I think it&rsquo;s just some Maryland counties that are &ldquo;town-less&rdquo;. For example, Frederick and Hagerstown are real towns, also Bethesda I think has this aspect as well (Rockville not so much).</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>GGP and zoning referendums</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/24/ggp-and-zoning-referendums/</link>
      <pubDate>Mon, 24 May 2010 22:11:07 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/24/ggp-and-zoning-referendums/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I meant &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/23/what-would-the-founders-think-about-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/&#34;&gt;my last post&lt;/a&gt; to be my final word on voter referendums, ballot initiatives, and other forms of direct democracy.  However I found something interesting in my researches that I can’t recall ever reading about in the whole debate about Columbia Town Center redevelopment and the proposed initiative to repeal the Howard County council’s approval of (a slightly modified version of) the proposal put forth by General Growth Partners.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;It turns out that this is not the only zoning referendum controversy that GGP has been involved in.  In particular, several years ago in Glendale, California, GGP tried to play the referendum game to its own advantage in a dispute with fellow retail developer Caruso Affiliated.  To quote from the Glendale News Press story marking the final chapter in the story:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I meant <a href="/2010/05/23/what-would-the-founders-think-about-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/">my last post</a> to be my final word on voter referendums, ballot initiatives, and other forms of direct democracy.  However I found something interesting in my researches that I can’t recall ever reading about in the whole debate about Columbia Town Center redevelopment and the proposed initiative to repeal the Howard County council’s approval of (a slightly modified version of) the proposal put forth by General Growth Partners.</p>
<p>It turns out that this is not the only zoning referendum controversy that GGP has been involved in.  In particular, several years ago in Glendale, California, GGP tried to play the referendum game to its own advantage in a dispute with fellow retail developer Caruso Affiliated.  To quote from the Glendale News Press story marking the final chapter in the story:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The Americana at Brand opened to the public Friday, culminating 17 months of construction and more than seven years of proposing, approving and planning the 15.5-acre, mixed-use development.  . . .</p>
<p>As part of the deal that got the project rolling, the city contributed $77 million worth of city-owned property that has since been transformed into a portion of the residential and retail megaplex and a nearly 2-acre public park.</p>
<p>That landmark decision was met with fierce criticism from many residents who opposed the gift and almost managed to deny the project in a 2004 city election.</p>
<p>But no opponent was more entrenched than General Growth Properties, owner of the Glendale Galleria, the city’s longtime retail titan across the street from the Americana.  <em>The Chicago-based real estate investment trust financed the referendum petition that forced the election.</em></p>
<p>Three measures on the referendum needed voter approval to greenlight the Americana: All three measures won by less than 2%.  [emphasis added]</p>
</blockquote>
<p>For the record, I think this action on the part of GGP was even more worthy of criticism than the recent attempt to force a referendum on the Columbia Town Center plan.  While I think opponents of the Town Center plan are misguided in their judgments as to what would be best for Columbia, as far as I’m aware they had little or no financial interest in the GGP plan’s success or failure.  In Glendale, on the other hand, GGP appears to have used the referendum process simply as a way to thwart a potential competitor and protect its own financial interests.</p>
<p>I should add that Caruso Affiliated doesn’t appear to have had clean hands either in this controversy; a <a href="http://www.carusoaffiliated.com/newsroom/pdf/labjarticle.pdf">Los Angeles Business Journal story</a> discusses some of the hardball political tactics pursued by both sides.  It’s a cautionary tale of how a referendum process originally designed to overcome corporate special interests can become just another way for those special interests to pursue their own private agendas.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="9e5499a0-001">RB_Halford (atticus@comcast.net) - 2010-05-25 17:12</h4>
<p>Referendums are funny. Jim Rouse was behind a referendum in Baltimore to get his Harborplace project approved. Check out the bottom of page 287 and top of 288 for a glimpse of his role: <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=JF0x3YWIjmUC&amp;lpg=PA288&amp;ots=uR8m1RViZn&amp;dq=harborplace%20referendum%20rouse&amp;pg=PA287#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false">http://books.google.com/books?id=JF0x3YWIjmUC&amp;lpg=PA288&amp;ots=uR8m1RViZn&amp;dq=harborplace%20referendum%20rouse&amp;pg=PA287#v=onepage&amp;q&amp;f=false</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>What would the Founders think about the Taxpayer Protection Initiative?</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/23/what-would-the-founders-think-about-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 23 May 2010 23:38:56 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/23/what-would-the-founders-think-about-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I’ve probably already spent too much time on the proposed Howard County &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/&#34;&gt;Taxpayer Protection Initiative&lt;/a&gt;, but there was one point brought up by an anonymous commenter on &lt;a href=&#34;http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/05/scene-this-week-in_17.html&#34;&gt;Wordbones’s blog post&lt;/a&gt; that I thought was worth addressing.  Briefly, the commenter’s argument was that ballot initiatives and other forms of direct democracy were a perfectly valid way to counter a “government that did not heed the word of the people,” and that anyone who thought differently should hold their tongue until they educated themselves by reading the &lt;a href=&#34;http://topics.law.cornell.edu/constitution&#34;&gt;US Constitution&lt;/a&gt;, the &lt;a href=&#34;http://thomas.loc.gov/home/histdox/fedpapers.html&#34;&gt;Federalist Papers&lt;/a&gt;, and &lt;a href=&#34;http://xroads.virginia.edu/~Hyper/DETOC/&#34;&gt;DeTocqueville&lt;/a&gt;, and taking some university courses on the subject.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I’ve probably already spent too much time on the proposed Howard County <a href="/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/">Taxpayer Protection Initiative</a>, but there was one point brought up by an anonymous commenter on <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/05/scene-this-week-in_17.html">Wordbones’s blog post</a> that I thought was worth addressing.  Briefly, the commenter’s argument was that ballot initiatives and other forms of direct democracy were a perfectly valid way to counter a “government that did not heed the word of the people,” and that anyone who thought differently should hold their tongue until they educated themselves by reading the <a href="http://topics.law.cornell.edu/constitution">US Constitution</a>, the <a href="http://thomas.loc.gov/home/histdox/fedpapers.html">Federalist Papers</a>, and <a href="http://xroads.virginia.edu/~Hyper/DETOC/">DeTocqueville</a>, and taking some university courses on the subject.</p>
<p>An interesting point about this line of argument is that the Founding Fathers themselves would likely have been horrified by the idea of the electorate directly voting on questions of the day.  They would have been especially horrified by the idea of citizens drafting legislation themselves in the form of ballot initiatives (beyond just voting to overturn an existing law, or voting yes or no on a referendum drafted by legislators).</p>
<p>Even a casual inspection of the Constitution reveals it to be the work of men who were unenthusiastic (to say the least) about the idea of direct democracy and actively worked to restrict its operation.  This includes the whole structure of representative government in the form of the House and Senate, the <a href="http://topics.law.cornell.edu/constitution/articlei#section3">provision in Article I, Section 3</a> for Senators to be elected not by the people but by state legislators (not changed until the ratification of the <a href="http://topics.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxvii">17th amendment</a> in 1913), and the still-extant electoral college scheme created by <a href="http://topics.law.cornell.edu/constitution/articleii#section1">Article II, Section 1</a> that vests election of the President in electors appointed according to state law.</p>
<p>Alexander Hamilton, John Jay, and James Madison, the authors of the Federalist Papers, made this animus against direct democracy more explicit, e.g., in the <a href="http://thomas.loc.gov/home/histdox/fed_10.html">Federalist Paper number 10</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>A pure democracy, by which I mean a society consisting of a small number of citizens, who assemble and administer the government in person, can admit of no cure for the mischiefs of faction.  A common passion or interest will, in almost every case, be felt by a majority of the whole; a communication and concert result from the form of government itself; and there is nothing to check the inducements to sacrifice the weaker party or an obnoxious individual.  Hence it is that such democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.  . . .</p>
<p>A republic, by which I mean a government in which the scheme of representation takes place, opens a different prospect, and promises the cure for which we are seeking.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Now, I don’t happen to think that the Founding Fathers were infallible in everything they did, and I’m willing to entertain the idea that direct democracy could make sense in certain contexts.  However I think it’s important to note that the idea of direct democracy through referendums and ballot initiatives isn’t sanctified by association with the Founders.  It didn’t gain traction until the advent of the Progressive movement in the late 19th century, in reaction to the perceived corruption of state legislatures by corporate interests.</p>
<p>(For an overview of the history of direct democracy in the US see <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_direct_democracy_in_the_United_States">Wikipedia</a>.  For a concise academic discussion of the history and pros and cons of direct democracy see the paper “<a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1366056">Direct Democracy in the United States</a>” by David Marcello of the Tulane University School of Law.  For a cogent advocacy of ballot initiatives from a modern conservative perspective see the article “<a href="http://www.jail4judges.org/J.A.I.L._News_Journals/2006/2006-02-02B.html">Statewide Ballot Initiatives: Is It Time for a Change?</a>” by Mike Ball, a Republican state legislator in Alabama.)</p>
<p>The central justification for a given ballot initiative (and for ballot initiatives in general) is that the elected representatives of the people are not in fact expressing the people’s will but are under the malign influence of special interests, that the normal legislative process has been thwarted by a minority that prevents popular legislation from being passed, or has been hijacked by a majority dismissive of the popular will, and that the seriousness of this injustice warrants bypassing the legislative process and taking the question directly to the people.</p>
<p>For example, here’s Mike Ball on the question of states establishing procedures for ballot initiatives:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In a nation such as ours where political power is believed to ultimately lie in the will of people, one would expect that a concept with so much public support would be easy to enact, but that is not the case.  The legislative process often allows interest groups to override public support.  The traditional legislative process has many steps in it that tend to make the passage of legislation difficult, requiring broad support in the governing body.  Preventing the passage of legislation is usually much easier, requiring the opposition of only a few key legislators, such as the presiding officer, the chairman of the appropriate committee, or enough members to sustain a filibuster.  Having no desire to surrender their power to block legislation adverse to their interests, well-funded special interest groups team with legislators to oppose the initiative process.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The initiative process then becomes another component of the overall system of governmental checks and balances, in this case to act as a counterpoise to legislative intransigence, unresponsiveness, and overreaching.</p>
<p>Not a bad argument at all, and as I said above I’m willing to keep an open mind on the subject.  But let’s look specifically at the two Howard County examples I’ve commented on, namely the <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/70286/downtown-petition-drive-falls-short/">unsuccessful petition drive</a> to force a referendum on the Columbia Town Center redevelopment plan and the proposed Taxpayer Protection Initiative.  How closely do they conform to the idealized vision of the people exercising their popular will to right a serious injustice?</p>
<p>I’ll leave to others the task of providing a full argument against the proposed Town Center referendum.  I’ll simply say that given the long period of public consultation and the fact that the entire county council voted unanimously for the GGP plan, it’s hard to make the argument that an unjust outcome was forced on the populace by a legislative minority captured by special interests.</p>
<p>With the Taxpayer Protection Initiative I think it’s also hard to make the argument that the popular will is being thwarted in a manner that makes it imperative that the normal legislative process be bypassed.  Given the recent <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/71668/council-passes-824-million-operating-budget/">4-1 council vote to pass the Howard County 2010 budget</a> and the lack of any apparent major public outcry over that vote, I think a more reasonable take on the situation is that Howard County voters have elected a solid council majority in favor of the current fiscal strategy, and for the most part are fine with that approach.  Why then is the Taxpayer Protection Initiative necessary?</p>
<p>Going further, far from enshrining the popular will as the final arbiter of county fiscal prudence, by enabling only two council members to block tax increases favored by a council majority the Taxpayer Protection Initiative enables exactly the sort of minority intransigence that Mike Ball decried in the passage I quoted above.</p>
<p>I’m open to considering the Taxpayer Protection Initiative on its merits if someone comes forward with a compelling argument in its favor.  However I haven’t seen any such argument yet.  (In fact, I haven’t seen any real arguments for the initiative at all, at least not on the local <a href="http://www.hocogop.org/">Republican Party</a> <a href="http://www.howardcountygopclub.com/">web</a> <a href="http://hcrepublicanwomen.org/">sites</a>.)  In the meantime I feel fully justified in maintaining my previously expressed opinion, that the only problem with the county council addressed by this initiative is the problem that Republicans have getting elected to it.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="62f6968d-003">HoCo Rising (hocorising@gmail.com) - 2010-05-24 13:23</h4>
<p>Wow. Thanks for such a well reasoned and well researched post. Another aspect of TPI that concerns me is the fact that the minority that can block a tax increase does not have the power to block additional spending. If we are going to invoke minority rule, we need to go all the way or none at all, otherwise we will have discordant votes that could seriously hurt the County&rsquo;s financial picture.</p>
<h4 id="62f6968d-002"><a href="http://www.wordbones.com" title="wordbones@verizon.net">wordbones</a> - 2010-05-24 20:16</h4>
<p>Frank, Thank you for providing the intellectual back stop to this subject. Well done. -wb</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>To the anonymous commenters of Howard County</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/19/to-the-anonymous-commenters-of-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 19 May 2010 18:33:59 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/19/to-the-anonymous-commenters-of-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Coming from the world of open source and Internet security to dabble in the waters of Howard County affairs, I was surprised by the predominance of anonymous comments on local HoCo blogs.  I can only conclude that some local bloggers aren’t aware of why allowing anonymous comments is bad, that some commenters don’t know the value of using a consistent identity (fake or real), or that some commenters are willfully disrespectful of online social norms around using a consistent identifier (fake or real).  This post is a primer for the first two groups, and a warning to the third.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Coming from the world of open source and Internet security to dabble in the waters of Howard County affairs, I was surprised by the predominance of anonymous comments on local HoCo blogs.  I can only conclude that some local bloggers aren’t aware of why allowing anonymous comments is bad, that some commenters don’t know the value of using a consistent identity (fake or real), or that some commenters are willfully disrespectful of online social norms around using a consistent identifier (fake or real).  This post is a primer for the first two groups, and a warning to the third.</p>
<p>First, some basics: There are three ways you can post something online:</p>
<ul>
<li>under your real name</li>
<li>under a fake name unique to you and used consistently (pseudonym or “nym”)</li>
<li>under no name at all (anonymously)</li>
</ul>
<p>Note that in many online contexts there is no real difference between the first two cases, since it’s often impractical or unnecessary to verify that a real-world identity actually exists and is associated with a specific person posting online.  So in practice we can just assume that everyone commenting is using a pseudonym, with the only requirement being that they always use the same pseudonym when commenting in a particular context.</p>
<p>The problem with anonymous commenters is <em>not</em> that such people are unwilling to have comments associated with their real-life identity.  Rather the problem is that they are unwilling to have comments they make today be associated with comments they’ve made in the past or might make in the future.  If people use stable pseudonyms then you can track their comments over time and evaluate whether someone is making a consistent argument or displaying an overall grasp of a particular subject area.</p>
<p>However with anonymous commenting a person can come into a forum and post anything they wish (no matter how outrageous or ill-informed), go away, and then come back tomorrow and do the exact same thing, with no effect on their online reputation.  Naturally enough, doing this is most attractive to people who want to make negative or ill-informed comments without fear of being called on it, and so a forum dominated by anonymous commenters runs the risk of degrading into a morass of personal attacks and pointless rants.</p>
<p>My suggestion is this: If you don’t want to use your real name then you should just make up a fake name and use that.  (Just make sure it’s distinctive enough that no one else is likely to use it.)  You can also put in a fake email address when it’s requested by comment forms; the blog software I use doesn’t check the address, so it doesn’t even need to be a working address.  (But again, if you use a fake address please make it the same fake address each time.)  That way I can track your comments over time (whether for a single post or across multiple posts), politely address you by your (possibly fake) name, and give you props where appropriate.</p>
<p>If you’re not willing to adopt a persistent distinctive pseudonym, and insist on putting in “anonymous” (or some variant thereof) when submitting a comment, then quite frankly I have no desire to have your comments in my comments section, and I’ll feel no compunction about deleting your comments when I notice them after the fact.  (I don’t hold up comments for moderation, to make it easier for people to add comments.)  Note that if I do delete an anonymous comment I’ll announce that, so you’ll know it occurred and can re-submit the comment under a proper pseudonym.</p>
<p>Thanks for your cooperation in this matter, and happy commenting.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="5e9092ec-002"><a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2010/05/19/how-i-met-one-of-the-most-interesting-of-men/">How I met one of the most interesting of men « Jessie X</a> - 2010-05-20 03:03</h4>
<p>[&hellip;] To the anonymous commenters of Howard County. [&hellip;]</p>
<h4 id="5e9092ec-004"><a href="http://www.hedgehogreport.com" title="drwissing@gmail.com">Dave W</a> - 2010-05-20 11:33</h4>
<p>Amen Frank. I&rsquo;ve been commenting on this for years about the local blogs allowing &ldquo;Anonymous&rdquo; comments that make following a debate frustrating. I actually finally got around to implementing a system where anyone who comments HAS TO use the same pseudonym and email address or their comment will not be approved. With some days getting upwards of 1,000 comments and single posts getting 300-400, it was the only way to ensure a dialogue of any meaning to occur on my site. The way I have done this in my blog software is when someone comments for the first time, I have to approve their comment before it will appear. Once I approve that first comment, then that name/email combo becomes &ldquo;approved&rdquo; and they can make comments after that as long as they continue to use the same name/email combo. If the software doesn&rsquo;t recognize the combo becasue someone tried to use a different handle or email, the comment will not appear until &ldquo;approve&rdquo; it. Some people sneak through on occasion and manage to use a second identity, but for the most part I find them pretty quickly and essentially have eliminated the &ldquo;anonymous&rdquo; comments or people using multiple handles on my site. One side benefit is that is has also effectively eliminated my spam coments and what are commonly known as trolls who come through with what I call &ldquo;hit-and-run&rdquo; comments.</p>
<h4 id="5e9092ec-003"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-05-20 14:18</h4>
<p>&ldquo;Hit and run&rdquo; comments. Love it, Dave. I call them sniper attacks, but it&rsquo;s essentially the same thing. Such commenters seem more interested in the attack on the person and less interested in a conversation. I met Frank on my blog and have come to know him precisely because he owned his identity when he commented on Hometown Columbia. I just wrote a blog post about meeting him last night: <a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2010/05/19/how-i-met-one-of-the-most-interesting-of-men/">http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2010/05/19/how-i-met-one-of-the-most-interesting-of-men/</a></p>
<h4 id="5e9092ec-007"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2010-05-20 15:25</h4>
<p>oooh. bad sentence in my last comment. i wrote, &ldquo;I just wrote a blog post about meeting him last night&rdquo; but should have written, &ldquo;last night, I wrote a blog post about how I met Frank&rdquo; &hellip; or something like that. ;-)</p>
<h4 id="5e9092ec-006"><a href="http://tell-your-neighbors.blogspot.com/" title="johngordonboyle@gmail.com">johngordonboyle</a> - 2010-05-20 16:13</h4>
<p>Great post. I&rsquo;m with you 100%.</p>
<h4 id="5e9092ec-005"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-05-20 17:23</h4>
<p>Dave W: Thanks for the explanation of how you handle would-be anonymous commenters. I host my blog at wordpress.com (because I&rsquo;m cheap and don&rsquo;t have time to administer WordPress myself) and I don&rsquo;t know if wordpress.com has facilities in place for me to match what you&rsquo;re doing. If not, I&rsquo;m not sure it matters anyway; for a popular site like yours you pretty much have to automate this, but for the level of comments I get I can probably handle it by hand.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Why the Taxpayer Protection Initiative is a bad idea</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 18 May 2010 23:09:05 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2010/05/18/why-the-taxpayer-protection-initiative-is-a-bad-idea/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Recently Wordbones &lt;a href=&#34;http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/05/scene-this-week-in_17.html&#34;&gt;blogged about&lt;/a&gt; a proposed “Taxpayer Protection Initiative” that Howard County Republicans would like to put on the November ballot.  The basic proposal (as outlined in a &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/bs-md-ho-taxes-gop-20100510,0,2688172.story&#34; title=&#34;Howard Co.  Republicans seek change in charter for tax hikes&#34;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt; story&lt;/a&gt;) is to change the Howard County charter to require a supermajority of four county council members (out of five) to approve any county tax increases.  (By the way, does the Howard County Republican party have its own page to explain and promote this initiative?  I couldn’t find one on its &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocogop.com/&#34;&gt;web site&lt;/a&gt;, and Google was no help.)&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently Wordbones <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2010/05/scene-this-week-in_17.html">blogged about</a> a proposed “Taxpayer Protection Initiative” that Howard County Republicans would like to put on the November ballot.  The basic proposal (as outlined in a <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/howard/bs-md-ho-taxes-gop-20100510,0,2688172.story" title="Howard Co.  Republicans seek change in charter for tax hikes"><em>Baltimore Sun</em> story</a>) is to change the Howard County charter to require a supermajority of four county council members (out of five) to approve any county tax increases.  (By the way, does the Howard County Republican party have its own page to explain and promote this initiative?  I couldn’t find one on its <a href="http://www.hocogop.com/">web site</a>, and Google was no help.)</p>
<p>I happen to think this is a bad idea for several reasons, and rather snarkily unloaded on Howard County Republicans in the comments section of the post.  I’ll be nicer in this post, and limit myself to presenting some reasons why this initiative should be rejected.  I’ll start with some lesser concerns and then continue with more fundamental flaws.</p>
<p>The first issue was raised in the <em>Sun</em> story, namely that the proposed initiative addresses only taxes and not “user fees.”  This omission is disingenuous: It’s perfectly reasonable for the county to charge user fees in cases where the fee can be tied directly to a service and bears a reasonable relation to the cost for the county to provide that service.  However if we make it more difficult to raise taxes then it’s going to be tempting for the county council to instead institute more and more new fees, to significantly increase existing fees, and to have high fees substitute more and more for general tax revenue.</p>
<p>At that point such “user fees” will in effect be special-purpose taxes under another name.  This may allow politicians to boast about not raising taxes (strictly defined) but the overall monetary burden to county residents and businesses will be the same as if the revenue had been raised through taxes in the traditional way.  And we’ll be likely left with a complex and relative arbitrary system of user fees, and like a complex tax code it would be likely be rife with disparities and unfairnesses driven by special interest lobbying.</p>
<p>Second, the proposed supermajority requirement applies only to tax increases and not to other tax-related legislation, including tax cuts.  (I’m presuming here that the <em>Sun</em> story is correct and that Wordbones’s reference to “tax measures” in general is incorrect.)  Proponents of the initiative presumably want to limit the potential for a council majority to impose onerous ta increases.  Fair enough, but what about limiting the potential for a council majority to enact drastic tax cuts that might affect the county’s fiscal solvency and AAA bond rating and saddle county taxpayers with increased interest payments on county bonds?  Why shouldn’t we have a supermajority requirement to address that scenario?</p>
<p>Finally, and most importantly, the initiative doesn’t address spending measures at all.  If you make it difficult to raise taxes, but put no such restriction on increasing spending, then you run the risk of politicians resorting to accounting tricks and growing deficits to fund what in many cases are essential public services and/or spending obligations that can’t be avoided (e.g., snow removal last winter).</p>
<p>In this regard I think the “starve the beast” theory, i.e., that tax cuts will force spending cuts, is pretty much bogus and disproven by history.  Certainly the last Republican administration was quite willing to take on spending obligations well in excess of what tax revenue might justify.</p>
<p>Now to a more fundamental question: Why is this initiative really needed?  Since it would be a major change to the county charter, I think the burden is on its proponents to justify why we need to make this relatively radical change to the status quo.</p>
<p>As noted in the <em>Sun</em> story, the county is already restricted in how much it can raise the county-directed portion of the state income tax.  And as Wordbones noted, the 4-to-1 Democratic majority on the council hasn’t exactly been going crazy with enacting new tax increases.  So what problem is this initiative actually supposed to solve?</p>
<p>Some might complain (as did a commenter on Wordbones’s post) that the Howard County tax burden on businesses is higher than in other jurisdictions.  That may or may not be the case; the commenter presented no evidence to this effect, though others are welcome to.  (Make sure you include user fees as well though, as noted above.)</p>
<p>To the extent that the Howard County tax burden is higher, at least two responses are possible.  First, this is an affluent jurisdiction with arguably better potential for businesses than other less wealthy jurisdictions.  A business would be silly to complain that it costs more to rent space in a mall than in a strip shopping center; similarly businesses operating in Howard County have access to a potentially more lucrative customer base than elsewhere, even factoring in the increased costs due to taxes and government fees.</p>
<p>It may also be that in other cases Howard County does indeed have a higher tax burden than other jurisdictions of comparable wealth and population.  In that case businesses are free to make specific proposals to the electorate as to how exactly that burden could be reduced, and exactly what spending cuts should be made.  (And remember, the county has an annual budget on the order of a billion dollars, so to make even a 1% reduction requires spending cuts on the order of ten million dollars or so.)  If you’re just griping about taxes in general and not making specific concrete proposals then I feel perfectly justified in ignoring you.</p>
<p>So, if you can make clear and compelling arguments for this initiative then you’re welcome to do so (but see my note below), and I’ll gladly consider their merits.  In the meantime I’ll stand by my current opinion: That the Taxpayer Protection Initiative is basically a political stunt by Howard County Republicans with two primary purposes: to try to boost Republican turnout this November by trying to tap into (somewhat unfocused) popular discontent with governments, and (if successful) to compensate for Republican failure to gain a majority on the county council by making it easier for a Republican minority to pursue a strategy of blanket opposition to tax increases and hold the council majority hostage to their demands.</p>
<p>NOTE: Feel free to add your comments below, but be aware that I dislike anonymous commenters and will summarily delete the comments of anyone who doesn’t comment under a unique name of some sort, real or fictional.  I do this not because I care about people’s real-life identities; rather I want to be able to know that the person (whoever that might be) who makes a particular comment is the same person making a later comment, whether to this post or to future one.  That way we can better gauge the consistency of your arguments and the accuracy of your predictions.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="fafe59c5-002">PZGURU (pzguru@aol.com) - 2010-05-19 15:01</h4>
<p>Hecker - you said: &ldquo;Certainly the last Republican administration was quite willing to take on spending obligations well in excess of what tax revenue might justify.&rdquo; Are you talking about Bush or Chuck Ecker? I assume you mean Bush. You are right that he ran deficits and that&rsquo;s not acceptable. What about the current democRAT administration that is running deficits that are at least 4-5 times the size of Bush&rsquo;s deficits?!?!?!?! Please let us all know how you feel about this. Or are you completely biased in your criticism of government officials? While Howard County might not have been on a spending binge, the fact is that people have the right to control the government officials. Not the other way around. If you don&rsquo;t like the referendum initiative, then vote against it. It&rsquo;s high time that governments, city, county, state, and federal, be reined in as far as their spending habits and constant increase in taxes. The people are being taxed to death and we are sick of it. It&rsquo;s too long of a point to completely and thoroughly explain, but the gist of it is that ALL government bodies in this Country are getting too big and are out of control with spending and taxing. If it means drastically cutting &ldquo;services&rdquo; so be it. The private sector could more efficiently provide services than any government body anyway. Just look at how much money is lost through fraud and mismanagement at the Social Security program alone. Billions of dollars!!! It comes down to whether people believe in smaller government and reduced taxation, or big government and never-ending tax and fee increases. I believe in the former.</p>
<h4 id="fafe59c5-003"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-05-20 02:22</h4>
<p>PZGURU: Thank you for leaving a comment, and especially thanks for using an actual pseudonym; I do appreciate it. I&rsquo;m done with snarkiness, so I&rsquo;ll try to address your points (as expressed both here and on Wordbones&rsquo;s blog) in a serious manner. First, I did mean the Bush administration. On the question of deficits, I agree that the US has a looming problem with excessive ongoing deficits that needs to be addressed starting soon (essentially as soon as the economy is solidly in recovery). My personal feeling is that part of this could be done through targeted tax increases, but that the vast majority of deficit reduction will need to be done through spending cuts, especially in the big-ticket budget items like military spending and entitlements that account for the bulk of Federal spending. On the issue of the county budget, it&rsquo;s a perfectly reasonable position to want to reduce taxes and the overall size of government. My point is that a serious effort to do that has to include not just making tax increases more difficult, but also proposing concrete spending cuts. As I noted previously, &ldquo;starving the beast&rdquo; (i.e., focusing on tax cuts alone) hasn&rsquo;t worked historically, as politicians of both parties are happy to continue spending even as tax revenues decline. So my suggestion is that if the Howard County Republican party really believes that Howard County government is too large and that Howard County residents and businesses are over-taxed, then its county council and county executive candidates should run on a platform containing a set of specific proposals on tax and spending cuts. Until and unless they do that, I&rsquo;ll continue in my belief that the Taxpayer Protection Initiative is mostly a political gimmick that doesn&rsquo;t really address the problem that you and others perceive.</p>
<h4 id="fafe59c5-004"><a href="http://hometowncolumbia.wordpress.com/2010/05/19/how-i-met-one-of-the-most-interesting-of-men/">How I met one of the most interesting of men « Jessie X</a> - 2010-05-20 03:03</h4>
<p>[&hellip;] going to fast forward here a sec. Frank has, albeit infrequently, written about local concerns on his own blog, and he does, on occasion, comment on other local blogs. Recently, he commented on Wordbones’ [&hellip;]</p>
<h4 id="fafe59c5-007">PZGURU (pzguru@aol.com) - 2010-05-20 15:00</h4>
<p>I would tend to agree with your point about having a two-pronged attack. Restrictions on tax increase added with spending reductions. I believe that your agressive stance at the GOP seems a little out of place though considering it is typically elected democrats (or liberals)who seem to run up deficits the most and then simply say &ldquo;time for a tax increase&rdquo;. The only reason Ulman et. al. have not gone that route is that he knows that if he did propose even a single tax increase of any amount, he&rsquo;d lose his re-election bid. I predict that should he get re-elected, there will 100% be some sort of tax/fee increases in the pipeline.</p>
<h4 id="fafe59c5-006"><a href="/">hecker</a> - 2010-05-21 00:11</h4>
<p>PZGURU: I&rsquo;ll admit that I&rsquo;m a registered Democrat, and in general not a fan of the Republican party. However in this case I&rsquo;m ragging on the Howard County Republicans not because they&rsquo;re promoting fiscal discipline but because they&rsquo;re doing so in such a gimmicky and (in my opinion) likely-to-be-ineffective manner. Apropos of your point about elected Democrats, in recent memory it&rsquo;s been elected Republicans who run up deficits and then turn around and say &ldquo;time for a tax cut&rdquo;. So Howard County Republicans are also catching some fall-out flak from me for the Bush administration wiping out the budget surplus inherited from Clinton, and putting us in a position where we had to go even further in the hole to stave off an economic meltdown. As a Democrat I believe that government has a role to play in laying the groundwork for private enterprise to flourish, that groundwork including reasonable regulations, good public infrastructure, public education, and so on. I also believe that government can and should promote social justice, albeit to a much more limited extent. However at the same time I believe that in order for an activist government to maintain its legitimacy with the people it must spend taxes wisely, keep the tax burden reasonable, and not pile up large structural deficits and massive public debt. Thus from my perspective I&rsquo;m happy to see Howard County elect Democrats but have some restraints put on any latent tendency they might have to over-spend; however I think that restraint should be in the form of credible Republican candidates promoting fiscal discipline, not in the form of half-baked ballot initiatives. P.S. I&rsquo;m also going to respond to your points on Wordbones&rsquo;s blog re cities and rural areas at some point. But that might be in the form of a future blog post, and I don&rsquo;t have the time for it right now.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Relaxing at Pure Wine Cafe</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2009/07/09/relaxing-at-pure-wine-cafe/</link>
      <pubDate>Thu, 09 Jul 2009 01:06:31 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2009/07/09/relaxing-at-pure-wine-cafe/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This is a very rare week (the first one in years) in which I’ve been left at home to take care of the pets and work past my usual stopping time.  Tonight I decided to take a break and check out &lt;a href=&#34;http://purewinecafe.com/&#34;&gt;Pure Wine Café&lt;/a&gt;, a new wine bar in downtown Ellicott City.  I’d noticed it some time ago while driving and walking down Main Street, had checked it out on the web, and thought it might be a nice place to relax after work.  I was not disappointed.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a very rare week (the first one in years) in which I’ve been left at home to take care of the pets and work past my usual stopping time.  Tonight I decided to take a break and check out <a href="http://purewinecafe.com/">Pure Wine Café</a>, a new wine bar in downtown Ellicott City.  I’d noticed it some time ago while driving and walking down Main Street, had checked it out on the web, and thought it might be a nice place to relax after work.  I was not disappointed.</p>
<p>You can read more about it at the <em><a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/entertainment/dining/bal-ae.fo.tabletalk10jun10,0,6043431.story">Baltimore Sun</a></em> and <a href="http://www.urbanspoon.com/r/31/1451478/restaurant/Baltimore/Pure-Wine-Cafe-Ellicott-City">Urbanspoon</a>.  Pure Wine Café (no “The,” thank you very much; they’re inconsistent about using the acute accent, but I’ll do so) also has its <a href="http://purewinecafe.com/menu.php">menu</a> and <a href="http://purewinecafe.com/winelist.php">wine list</a> online&mdash;unless you have an iPhone, since the menu and wine list are in Flash.  That’s a major shame, because the iPhone demographic is exactly what Pure Wine Café is targeted at: people who like a combination of sophistication and approachability, and don’t mind paying a bit of a premium to obtain it.</p>
<p>When I stopped by the place was not crowded but had enough people there that I didn’t feel lonely.  The physical space is intimate, with an air of informal elegance; there’s a U-shaped bar and several small tables.  (They have nice aluminum chairs too, maybe the famous <a href="http://www.emeco.net/product/navychair.html">Emeco Navy chair</a> or a variant&mdash;it’s the sort of place that makes you think of things like that.)  Since this was my first visit I put myself at the mercy of the staff, and was fortunate to get some great recommendations from the sommelier, Mark Bowman.  I went with his advice and had the roasted rosemary fennel paired with a glass of <a href="http://www.grapesofspain.com/winefiles/FuenteMilano08Techsheet1.pdf">Fuente Milano 2008</a> and the honey-whipped chevre paired with a glass of Klemens Weber Riesling Halbtrocken 2007 (if I recall correctly).  (Incidentally, I very much appreciate Pure Wine Café selling wine in 2 oz.  glasses; I’m not up to drinking a lot of wine, and think it’s a much better approach than restricting myself to a single 5 oz.  glass.)</p>
<p>The first pairing was pretty near perfect.  I like fennel and absolutely love pancetta lardons; it was a great savory experience and the Fuente Milano complemented it very well.  The second pairing was a tad on the sweet side; nice, but not as transcendent as the first.  Since I wasn’t looking to make this a major meal I stopped there in terms of food.  They have a few desserts (not listed on the web site, I don’t know why), but it’s the sort of place that really calls for a dessert wine, so I had a 2 oz.  glass of “La Malaga” from Tenuta La Meridiana (I think&mdash;again, the dessert wines and other after-dinner drinks aren’t listed on the web site).</p>
<p>The total bill came to just over $30 including tip, and in my opinion was well worth it; if I get a chance sometime I’ll definitely go back.  They have a (small) selection of beers and a full bar, so if <a href="http://hometown-columbia.com/">JessieX</a> can get around to scheduling another blogger cocktail party (hint, hint!) I think it would be the perfect place to have one.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="5b35a8e4-001"><a href="http://www.jessienewburn.com/" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2009-07-19 17:59</h4>
<p>That&rsquo;s just amazing. I was thinking &ndash; about an hour ago &ndash; that I haven&rsquo;t had any hocoblog cocktail parties. And was wondering if anyone was going to mention it. OK, I need a co-host. This place sounds great. ~ J</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Coal Fire Pizza in Ellicott City</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2009/04/26/coal-fire-pizza-in-ellicott-city/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 26 Apr 2009 20:38:30 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2009/04/26/coal-fire-pizza-in-ellicott-city/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;I don’t normally do restaurant reviews, but I thought I’d do a quick one for the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.google.com/search?ie=UTF-8&amp;amp;oe=UTF-8&amp;amp;sourceid=navclient&amp;amp;gfns=1&amp;amp;q=coal+fire+pizza+ellicott+city&#34;&gt;Coal Fire Pizza&lt;/a&gt; in Ellicott City, since it just opened and I was among the first crowd of folks who ate there.  (For other reactions see the &lt;a href=&#34;http://howchow.blogspot.com/2009/04/coal-fired-pizza-in-ellicott-city.html&#34;&gt;post at Howchow&lt;/a&gt;.)  Basically it’s a nice “upscale casual” place with good pizza and other tasty offerings.  It’s a tad expensive if you order a lot (over $70 for three people in our case, without any alcoholic drinks included), but I’d definitely go back.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don’t normally do restaurant reviews, but I thought I’d do a quick one for the <a href="http://www.google.com/search?ie=UTF-8&amp;oe=UTF-8&amp;sourceid=navclient&amp;gfns=1&amp;q=coal+fire+pizza+ellicott+city">Coal Fire Pizza</a> in Ellicott City, since it just opened and I was among the first crowd of folks who ate there.  (For other reactions see the <a href="http://howchow.blogspot.com/2009/04/coal-fired-pizza-in-ellicott-city.html">post at Howchow</a>.)  Basically it’s a nice “upscale casual” place with good pizza and other tasty offerings.  It’s a tad expensive if you order a lot (over $70 for three people in our case, without any alcoholic drinks included), but I’d definitely go back.</p>
<p>I’ll start from the beginning: Coal Fire Pizza is in the small <a href="http://www.bavarproperties.com/newdevelopment.php?p=20">retail center</a> that’s part of the <a href="http://">Shipley’s Grant development</a> off Route 108 south of Route 100 and west of Snowden River Parkway.  The center is quite nice (and previously <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2009/01/in-this-months-business-monthly.html">praised by Wordbones</a>); it’s marred only by being adjacent to the high-voltage power lines that divide the Shipley’s Grant site in half.  Coal Fire Pizza itself has a restaurant area and a separate bar (each with its own door, though the areas connect); the decor is nicely done in tones of brown, but a bit bare and “corporate” for my taste.  (It could use some artwork on the walls.)</p>
<p>Though the restaurant was almost full the wait staff were helpful and seemed to be doing pretty well for a restaurant open only two days.  We ordered two pizzas (12-inch Margherita and 12-inch with pepperoni, mushroom, and banana peppers), two salads (“The Coal Fire” and the grilled Caesar), and the Chesapeake mac and cheese:</p>
<ul>
<li>The Coal Fire salad was romaine lettuce and grape tomatoes with (very thick) bacon and pecans, served with a sweet honey mustard vinaigrette dressing.  A very nice salad, with enough bacon to satisfy anyone; I would definitely order this again.  However the dressing is laid on a bit thick; I recommend getting it on the side.  The salad has artisan bread served on the side instead of croutons; it’s good bread, and a nice touch.</li>
<li>The grilled Caesar is a twist on the normal Caesar salad, made with a single stalk of romaine lettuce that’s grilled a bit.  This was less successful to my mind, because it somewhat lacked the crispiness I like in a Caesar salad.  However my dining companion loved it, and likened it to a classic <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;ct=res&amp;cd=1&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cooks.com%2Frec%2Fsearch%2F0%2C1-0%2Cwilted_salad%2CFF.html&amp;ei=o-T0SeGoO5qxtgewh-i7Dw&amp;usg=AFQjCNHO1hv9gfCsMTdmdwKtpJQBVgMxaA">wilted salad</a>.  (I’ll note though that wilted salads are traditionally made by pouring hot dressing over the salad; in Coal Fire Pizza’s grilled Caesar the salad dressing is cold.)  This salad also came with artisan bread on the side.</li>
<li>The Chesapeake Mac &amp; Cheese is a traditional macaroni and cheese with crab meat added, baked a bit with a crumb topping.  It’s a great dish for kids who like both macaroni and cheese and crabcakes, and a wonderful guilty pleasure for adults.</li>
<li>The Margherita pizza was a classic pizza recipe (cheese, basil, tomato sauce), done well.  The crust was thin but help up well, and nicely browned at the edges (to blackness in a couple of spots).</li>
<li>The other pizza was notable for its sauce.  Coal Fire Pizza offers a choice of three sauces, “classic” (traditional marinara sauce, what’s on the Margherita), “spicy,” and “signature” (a mix of the two).  For this pizza we ordered the spicy sauce.  It was quite spicy, not overly so but perhaps more spicy than most people want on a pizza; in future I’d probably order the “signature” sauce instead.</li>
</ul>
<p>As best I can tell Coal Fire Pizza doesn’t serve any desserts; at least none are on the menu, and we weren’t offered any.  However you can just walk across the parking lot to a <a href="http://www.coldstonecreamery.com/">Cold Stone Creamery</a> outlet&mdash;a quite popular one, judging by the line stretched outside the door.  There’s also a Starbucks if you want coffee, and <a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/the-wine-seller-windsor-mill">The Wine Seller</a> (a spinoff from <a href="http://www.yelp.com/biz/decanter-fine-wines-columbia">Decanter Fine Wines</a> in the Hickory Ridge Village Center) if you want to do your drinking at home.</p>
<p>All in all we were quite happy with our visit to Coal Fire Pizza, and definitely plan to eat there again.  It’s a great place to get good pizza in Howard County, and if you share pizzas with others and go easy on the appetizers it would be a relatively cheap meal.  (Though there are definitely appetizers I’d like to try, including the thin-cut fries, onion rings, and baked chicken wings with Vidalia onions.)</p>
<p>One final note: In a sign of both the times and the locale, the Coal Fire Pizza menu goes to great lengths to reassure us that it uses only <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthracite">anthracite</a>, the “cleanest type of coal . . .  virtually free of smoke and particulate emissions,” “extracted almost exclusively from previous disturbed sites, not virgin territory,” where the “surrounding ecosystem is rescued and revived” via a special <a href="http://www.osmre.gov/">Federal program</a>.  So don’t worry, Howard Countians: it’s not just good pizza, it’s <em>green</em> pizza!</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="7b316be5-002"><a href="http://www.AccessFirefox.org" title="KenSaunders@AccessFirefox.org">Ken Saunders</a> - 2009-04-27 01:21</h4>
<p>It all sounds great. Do you suppose that they&rsquo;d deliver several hundred miles north? I&rsquo;m a generous tipper. Nice write up by the way. They should comp your next meal.</p>
<h4 id="7b316be5-001"><a href="http://insidecharmcity.com/2009/04/26/restaurant-review-coal-fire/">Restaurant Review: Coal Fire</a> - 2009-04-27 02:58</h4>
<p>[&hellip;] Related: HowChow Frank Hecker [&hellip;]</p>
<h4 id="7b316be5-003"><a href="http://www.kaloyun.us" title="kraloyun35@yahoo.com">Kral Oyun</a> - 2009-08-14 15:16</h4>
<p>Pizza pizza pizza my God. Can eat it all the time. :)</p>
<h4 id="7b316be5-004">lar (lauraedecker@gmail.com) - 2009-09-29 05:24</h4>
<p>unfortunately my experience was different. on a monday afternoon my mom and i went here for lunch to find next to no one there, including our host. someone from the kitchen had to get her for us. our waitress seemed like she would rather be anywhere than there. our food was fine. (roasted red pepper pizza, coal fire salad and fries). the pizza was fine but nothing amazing. very thin crust, limited toppings. the salad was the best thing, very yummy. fries were pretty good too, reminiscent of mcd&rsquo;s. all in all it was fine. honestly though, i would have rather gone to bertuccis!</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Income inequality in Howard County, part 2</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 16 Nov 2008 06:50:43 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;(This is part 2 of a two-part post; for background on the Gini coefficient see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/&#34;&gt;part 1&lt;/a&gt;.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I previously discussed use of the Gini coefficient as a way to measure income inequality (or equality, as the case may be), and promised to discuss why Howard County is noteworthy in this regard.  In brief, Howard County is one of only seven counties in the US (out of 800 counties and other geographic areas) that rank in the top 5% (positions 1-40) for both &lt;a href=&#34;http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKty5H3syDA0-Fx1kNIzLBw&#34;&gt;median household income&lt;/a&gt; and &lt;a href=&#34;http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKty5H3syDA0KaKfYjUgXGw&#34;&gt;income equality&lt;/a&gt; (as measured by the Gini coefficient):&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(This is part 2 of a two-part post; for background on the Gini coefficient see <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/">part 1</a>.)</p>
<p>I previously discussed use of the Gini coefficient as a way to measure income inequality (or equality, as the case may be), and promised to discuss why Howard County is noteworthy in this regard.  In brief, Howard County is one of only seven counties in the US (out of 800 counties and other geographic areas) that rank in the top 5% (positions 1-40) for both <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKty5H3syDA0-Fx1kNIzLBw">median household income</a> and <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKty5H3syDA0KaKfYjUgXGw">income equality</a> (as measured by the Gini coefficient):</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Geographic area</th>
          <th>Income rank</th>
          <th>Median household income</th>
          <th>Equality rank</th>
          <th>Gini coefficient</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_County,_Maryland">Howard County, Maryland</a></td>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>101,672</td>
          <td>29</td>
          <td>0.379</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvert_County,_Maryland">Calvert County, Maryland</a></td>
          <td>6</td>
          <td>95,134</td>
          <td>26</td>
          <td>0.376</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_County,_Colorado">Douglas County CO</a></td>
          <td>9</td>
          <td>92,824</td>
          <td>25</td>
          <td>0.376</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stafford_County,_Virginia">Stafford County, Virginia</a></td>
          <td>12</td>
          <td>87,629</td>
          <td>12</td>
          <td>0.36</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_William_County,_Virginia">Prince William County, Virginia</a></td>
          <td>13</td>
          <td>87,243</td>
          <td>6</td>
          <td>0.351</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_County,_Maryland">Charles County, Maryland</a></td>
          <td>20</td>
          <td>83,412</td>
          <td>9</td>
          <td>0.353</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_County,_Minnesota">Scott County, Minnesota</a></td>
          <td>39</td>
          <td>77,678</td>
          <td>20</td>
          <td>0.369</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>(By way of comparison, the estimated <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-geo_id=01000US&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-_lang=en&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19083&amp;-format=&amp;-CONTEXT=dt">Gini coefficient for the entire US in 2007</a> is 0.467, while the estimated <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-geo_id=01000US&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-_lang=en&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19013&amp;-format=&amp;-CONTEXT=dt">US median household income in 2007</a> is $50,740.)</p>
<p>All of these counties share similar characteristics: They are formerly rural counties, relatively small in population (ranging from roughly 100,000 to 400,000), that are close enough to major cities to benefit from their economic growth but far enough away to exclude urban concentrations of poverty.  Except for Douglas County (a suburb of Denver) and Scott County (a suburb of Minneapolis-St Paul), all are located near Washington DC.  This points up the role of the Federal government as the economic engine of the region, providing lots of well-paying government and contractor jobs but at the same time not fostering an entrepreneurial culture that might produce more truly wealthy people.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup></p>
<p>Although people disagree on the exact causes, there’s general agreement that income inequality has been generally growing over the past few decades, both <a href="http://www2.census.gov/prod2/popscan/p60-204.pdf">in the US as a whole</a> and <a href="http://www.mdp.state.md.us/msdc/income_inequality/table1.pdf">within Maryland specifically</a>.  Howard County has been no exception, but even so its current level of inequality, although higher than it was in former years, is apparently no greater than that for the US as a whole in 1967, the year Columbia was founded.<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup></p>
<p>Howard County’s high median household income and low Gini coefficient could be interpreted as an endorsement of the “Columbia vision”: Columbia and Howard County have achieved 21st century-leading prosperity accompanied by 1960s-level equality.  But does the Columbia vision really have anything to with this?</p>
<p>As noted above, while its situation is special in the US as a whole, Howard County is joined in its relative good fortune by several other Maryland and Virginia counties, all standard garden-variety suburbs with no Jim Rouse-like figures present at the creation (as it were).  Rouse was certainly an enlightened developer, but first and foremost <a href="http://hometown-columbia.com/2007/11/30/jim-rouse-was-all-about-the-money/">he was a canny developer</a>, and the fundamental reason for Columbia’s success was Rouse’s foresight in seeing over forty years ago that Howard County’s “location, location, location” positioned it for future prosperity.</p>
<p>Despite that, I think the (lingering) vision of what Columbia should be does influence public attitudes toward income inequality in Howard County, and may help account for some of the special characteristics of the debates over Columbia’s future.  For example, I’m sure that many opponents of the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/18/AR2006011802493.html">WCI Plaza Residences</a> were sincerely concerned about the architectural compatibility of a 22-story tower with Columbia Town Center as it is and (in their minds) should be.  However I also think some of the opposition was due to unease as to what it meant for the Columbia vision to have rich people in $2M condos looming over the split-levels, townhouses, and apartments of the surrounding villages.</p>
<p>Having the truly wealthy and their luxurious dwellings sprinkled through western Howard is one thing, having them occupy the symbolic heart of Columbia would be quite another, and I can understand why some older Columbians may have been troubled at the thought of it.  I think a similar unease may lie behind the concern expressed that future housing in Columbia Town Center would be monopolized by the “<a href="/2008/09/09/the-wealthy-few-in-howard-county/">wealthy few</a>.”</p>
<p>In my <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/">previous post</a> I mentioned <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairfield_County,_Connecticut">Fairfield County, Connecticut</a>.  As Jay Hancock wrote in a <a href="http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/hancock/blog/2007/08/you_call_yourself_rich_howard.html">blog post</a> a while back, though it has a high median household income Howard County isn’t really rich in the sense that other areas are.  On the other hand Fairfield County (or, to be more precise, Greenwich and other towns within Fairfield County) is indeed rich, with a vengeance.  (Or at least it was, before the recent financial crisis; I don’t know how it’s doing now.)  Home to a number of <a href="http://www.realestatejournal.com/regionalnews/20050804-dugan.html">hedge fund billionaires</a> and other people who made their fortunes in financial services, in 2007 Fairfield County had a mean household income of over $130,000, ranked in the top 5% for median household income ($80,241), and in the bottom 5% for income equality (with a Gini coefficient of 0.534).</p>
<p>Fairfield County is in a sense Howard County as it might have been in an alternative world, if DC were like New York.  (In this regard it’s also worth noting that in 2007 New York City surpassed DC in both median household income, $64,217 vs. $54,317, and income inequality, with a Gini coefficient of 0.603 vs. 0.542.)  That Howard County isn’t Fairfield County in this world might be seen as an unalloyed blessing: We live in a more fair and equal society, and are more insulated from the vicissitudes of global capitalism.</p>
<p>However it can also be argued that Columbia and Howard County are giving up something in return, and that (within limits) they might benefit from an increased influx of true wealth and the inequality that accompanies it.  That’s a subject I hope to address in a future post.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="fdc41907-001"><a href="http://www.twitter.com/jessiex" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2008-11-17 05:22</h4>
<p>Frank, From day one, your perspective and thinking has made me more curious and thoughtful. Thanks again for sharing how you look at things. And thanks for this interesting, albeit a bit nerdy, post. ;-) See you at the BlogTale party Thursday, <a href="http://www.socializr.com/event/738244444">http://www.socializr.com/event/738244444</a> ~jessiex</p>
<h4 id="fdc41907-002"><a href="/">Frank Hecker</a> - 2008-11-18 03:32</h4>
<p>Jessie, thanks for stopping by. Sorry for the nerdiness, it&rsquo;s just that sometimes having the numbers and understanding the concepts is important &ndash; otherwise it&rsquo;s all just opinions!</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>It’s worth noting that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_County,_Maryland">Frederick County, Maryland</a> almost made the list above as well in 2007; it is ranked #43 for median household income, and #22 for income equality.  In fact, as a state Maryland has a Gini coefficient well below the US average, <a href="http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/business/hancock/blog/2007/08/marylands_proudest_income_stat.html">as pointed out by Jay Hancock</a> of the <em>Baltimore Sun</em> last year.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>The US Gini index in 1967 was 0.397 (US Census Bureau Publication P60-235, <em><a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pKty5H3syDA0KaKfYjUgXGw">Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2007</a></em>, Table A-3, pp. 40-41).  Due to a change in methodology in the early 1990s, Gini coefficients published by the Census Bureau for the 1960s cannot be directly compared to current Gini coefficients from the same source.  However I think it’s reasonable to conclude that income inequality in Howard County today is at least roughly similar to income inequality in the US as a whole in 1967.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Income inequality in Howard County, part 1</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/</link>
      <pubDate>Sun, 16 Nov 2008 06:41:04 +0000</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;(This is part 1 of a two-part post; for the conclusion see &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/&#34;&gt;part 2&lt;/a&gt;.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2008/10/01/so-bill-gates-walks-into-howard-county/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I discussed the concept of median income and how it avoids certain distortions inherent in mean (average) income.  However median income by itself is not adequate to characterize the economic status of households in Howard County (or anywhere else for that matter).  In particular, the median income just provides the “midpoint” for income, i.e., the income value for which 50% of the households make more and 50% make less; it does &lt;em&gt;not&lt;/em&gt; address the question of how income is actually distributed among the various households.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>(This is part 1 of a two-part post; for the conclusion see <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/">part 2</a>.)</p>
<p>In a <a href="/2008/10/01/so-bill-gates-walks-into-howard-county/">previous post</a> I discussed the concept of median income and how it avoids certain distortions inherent in mean (average) income.  However median income by itself is not adequate to characterize the economic status of households in Howard County (or anywhere else for that matter).  In particular, the median income just provides the “midpoint” for income, i.e., the income value for which 50% of the households make more and 50% make less; it does <em>not</em> address the question of how income is actually distributed among the various households.</p>
<p>For example, let’s go back to our simple 10-household example from the last post:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Household</th>
          <th>Household Income</th>
          <th>Share of Household Income</th>
          <th>Cumulative Share of Household Income</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>$16,000</td>
          <td>1.35%</td>
          <td>1.35%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2</td>
          <td>$37,000</td>
          <td>3.11%</td>
          <td>4.46%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>$56,000</td>
          <td>4.71%</td>
          <td>9.17%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>4</td>
          <td>$75,000</td>
          <td>6.31%</td>
          <td>15.48%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>5</td>
          <td>$92,000</td>
          <td>7.74%</td>
          <td>23.21%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>6</td>
          <td>$111,000</td>
          <td>9.34%</td>
          <td>32.55%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>7</td>
          <td>$132,000</td>
          <td>11.10%</td>
          <td>43.65%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>8</td>
          <td>$163,000</td>
          <td>13.71%</td>
          <td>57.36%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>9</td>
          <td>$190,000</td>
          <td>15.98%</td>
          <td>73.34%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>10</td>
          <td>$317,000</td>
          <td>26.66%</td>
          <td>100.00%</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>I’ve added two new columns of data, but otherwise the situation is as I described it previously: the ten households have an average income of $118,900 but a median income of $101,500, very similar to the actual numbers for Howard County.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  Now let’s look at a second 10-household example:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Household</th>
          <th>Household Income</th>
          <th>Share of Household Income</th>
          <th>Cumulative Share of Household Income</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>$7,000</td>
          <td>0.59%</td>
          <td>0.59%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2</td>
          <td>$9,000</td>
          <td>0.76%</td>
          <td>1.35%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>$13,000</td>
          <td>1.09%</td>
          <td>2.44%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>4</td>
          <td>$18,000</td>
          <td>1.51%</td>
          <td>3.95%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>5</td>
          <td>$43,000</td>
          <td>3.62%</td>
          <td>7.57%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>6</td>
          <td>$160,000</td>
          <td>13.46%</td>
          <td>21.03%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>7</td>
          <td>$165,000</td>
          <td>13.88%</td>
          <td>34.90%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>8</td>
          <td>$174,000</td>
          <td>14.63%</td>
          <td>49.54%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>9</td>
          <td>$190,000</td>
          <td>15.98%</td>
          <td>65.52%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>10</td>
          <td>$410,000</td>
          <td>34.48%</td>
          <td>100.00%</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>As it happens, these ten households have exactly the same average income ($118,900, $1,189,000 divided by 10) and exactly the same median income ($101,500, halfway between $43,000 and $160,000) as in the first example.  However the distribution of income looks very different; in its division of households between rich and poor it looks much more like Baltimore city or Washington, DC, than it does Howard County.  Clearly this difference in income inequality is not captured by the median or mean income, or even by related measures like the difference between the mean and the median.  How can we quantify this difference?</p>
<p>One commonly-used measure of income inequality is the so-called Gini coefficient or Gini index.  The computation of the Gini coefficient is more complicated than that for mean or median income, but it’s still relatively straightforward and comprehensible.  The key is to look at the numbers in the last two columns of the tables above, and especially the last column, cumulative share of household income.</p>
<p>The third column simply gives the share of household income going to that particular household.  For example, in the first table household #1 has income of $16,000 against a total of $1,189,000 for all households, or 1.35% of all income; similarly household #10 has a 26.66% share of all income ($317,000 divided by $1,189,900), and so on for the other households.  The fourth column then uses these figures to compute the share of income going to the poorest <em>n%</em> households. For example, household #1 has a 1.35% share of total income and household #2 has a 3.11% share, so the poorest 20% of households (i.e., households #1 and #2 out of 10 total households) have 4.46% of all income (1.35% plus 3.11%).  Similarly we can add the income share figures for households #1 through #9 to determine that the poorest 90% of households have 73.34% of all income, with the remaining 10% of households (i.e., household #10) having 26.66% as noted above.</p>
<p>The cumulative share of income can be graphed as shown in the figure below.  The red points show the values from the fourth column of the table above, with the red lines then connecting the dots to approximate a curve; if there were more households there would be more points and a correspondingly smoother curve.</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/gini-example-1.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/gini-example-1-embed.png"
         alt="Example 1 - Graph of an income distribution similar to that of Howard County, Maryland"/> </a>
</figure>

<p>Now let’s look at the graph for our second example from above:</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/gini-example-2.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/gini-example-2-embed.png"
         alt="Example 2 - Graph of a more unequal income distribution"/> </a>
</figure>

<p>Again the red points represent the values for cumulative share of income from the fourth column of the second table, with the red lines connecting the dots.  What about the blue dots in both graphs? Those represent the ideal case where all the household incomes are equal, or nearly so.  In that case the poorest 10% of households will have (almost) 10% of total household income, the poorest 20% will have (almost) 20% of income, and so on.  The corresponding curve will then be a straight (or nearly straight) line, here shown in blue.</p>
<p>Note that as household income becomes more unequal, the curve of cumulative income share (the red curve) moves further and further away from the blue line representing perfect (or nearly perfect) income equality.  This gives us a straightforward way to define the Gini coefficient: It’s the size of the blue-shaded area between the blue line and the red curve, expressed as a fraction (or percentage) of the total area under the blue line.  For nearly equal income distributions the red curve will be very close to the blue line, and the Gini coefficient will be close to zero, while for very unequal income distributions the red curve will be far away from the blue line, and the Gini coefficient will approach one (or 100%).</p>
<p>In the first example the Gini coefficient is 0.38, nearly the same as the Gini coefficient of 0.379 for Howard County (see the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19083&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Census ACS table 19083</a>).<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup>  In the second example the Gini coefficient is 0.53.  This is comparable to the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19083&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=04000US11&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Gini coefficient for the District of Columbia</a>, which is 0.542.  More interestingly for our purposes, it’s nearly the same as 0.534, the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19083&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US09001&amp;-search_results=04000US11&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Gini coefficient for Fairfield County, Connecticut</a>, a suburban county in the New York City metropolitan area that’s home to many hedge-fund managers and other wealthy financial services professionals.</p>
<p>Unlike DC, Fairfield County is a pretty affluent area overall; it has a <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19013&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-geo_id=05000US09001&amp;-search_results=04000US11&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">median household income of $80,241</a> (somewhat lower than Howard County’s) and a mean household income of $130,397 (somewhat higher than Howard County’s).<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup></p>
<p>The following 10-household example roughly mirrors the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19001&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-geo_id=05000US09001&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">Fairfield County household income breakdown</a>:</p>
<table>
  <thead>
      <tr>
          <th>Household</th>
          <th>Household Income</th>
          <th>Share of Household Income</th>
          <th>Cumulative Share of Household Income</th>
      </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
      <tr>
          <td>1</td>
          <td>$11,000</td>
          <td>0.84%</td>
          <td>0.84%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>2</td>
          <td>$23,000</td>
          <td>1.76%</td>
          <td>2.61%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>3</td>
          <td>$37,000</td>
          <td>2.84%</td>
          <td>5.44%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>4</td>
          <td>$53,000</td>
          <td>4.06%</td>
          <td>9.51%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>5</td>
          <td>$70,000</td>
          <td>5.37%</td>
          <td>14.88%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>6</td>
          <td>$90,000</td>
          <td>6.90%</td>
          <td>21.78%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>7</td>
          <td>$115,000</td>
          <td>8.82%</td>
          <td>30.60%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>8</td>
          <td>$145,000</td>
          <td>11.12%</td>
          <td>41.72%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>9</td>
          <td>$215,000</td>
          <td>16.49%</td>
          <td>58.21%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
          <td>10</td>
          <td>$545,000</td>
          <td>41.79%</td>
          <td>100.00%</td>
      </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>
<p>The corresponding Gini coefficient diagram is as follows:</p>
<figure><a href="/assets/images/gini-example-3.png">
    <img loading="lazy" src="/assets/images/gini-example-3-embed.png"
         alt="Example 1 - Graph of an income distribution similar to that of Fairfield County, Connecticut"/> </a>
</figure>

<p>What makes Howard County special with respect to income inequality, and Fairfield County particularly interesting as a comparison? The answers to those questions will be the subject of <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-2/">part 2</a> of this two-part post.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="bb5c6836-002"><a href="http://www.johntindale.com" title="john@johntindale.com">johntindale</a> - 2008-11-21 02:26</h4>
<p>This is a very interesting, informative, and well documented site about income disparity in HoCo. Thank you for all the hard work, research, and analysis,</p>
<h4 id="bb5c6836-001"><a href="http://www.ticketpoint.de" title="ticketpoint@gmx.de">Flug</a> - 2008-12-01 15:13</h4>
<p>I really love your stats and your interpretation of the datas. Great work, as usual. I bet I would have had higher marks in statistic, if have found your blog earlier:)</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey estimates the median household income in Howard County at $101,672 for 2007 (<a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19013&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">ACS table B19013</a>).  (This figure has a margin of error of +/-$3,594, which we’ll ignore for purposes of this discussion.)  The ACS tables apparently don’t directly provide a figure for mean household income, but it can be computed by taking the aggregate household income estimate of $11,734,222,700 (<a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19025&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">ACS table B19025</a>) and dividing it by the number of households, 98,866 (<a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19001&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=true&amp;-_caller=geoselect&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-search_results=05000US09001&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">ACS table 19001</a>); the resulting estimate for mean income is $118,688.&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>For those who’d like to check this result, the computation is relatively straightforward.  First, we convert all percentages to fractions, so that the horizontal axis goes from 0 to 1, and the vertical axis likewise; the cumulative shares of income are then 0.0135 (for 0.1 of the population), 0.0446 (for 0.2), 0.0917 (for 0.3), and so on.  The easiest way to compute the Gini coefficient is to compute the area under the red curve, and then to subtract it from the area under the blue line; the resulting difference is the size of the blue-shaded area, and we can then divide it by the area under the blue line to obtain the Gini coefficient.  The area under the blue line is simple to compute: It’s a triangle that is half of a 1 by 1 square, so its area is 0.5.  The area under the red line is composed of a series of nine <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trapezoid">trapezoids</a> and one triangle (at the left).  The area of the triangle is half the base times the height: 0.5 times 0.1 (base) times 0.0135 (height), or 0.000675.  The area of each trapezoid is the base times the average of the two vertical sides; for the first trapezoid (counting from the left) this is 0.1 (the base) times the sum of 0.0135 and 0.0446 divided by 2 or 0.0297 (the average of the two vertical sides), or 0.00297.  Continuing with the other areas (left as an exercise for the reader), the sum of all the areas is about 0.31; this is the area under the red curve.  We subtract this from 0.5 to get 0.19 as the area of the blue-shaded area, and then divide by 0.5 (the area under the blue line) to get 0.38 as the Gini coefficient.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>As with Howard County, the mean household income for Fairfield County can be computed by taking the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19025&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-geo_id=05000US09001&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">aggregate household income </a> of $42,228,652,700 and dividing it by 323,848, the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19001&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-geo_id=05000US09001&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">number of households</a>.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Columbia’s account is no longer active</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/15/columbias-account-is-no-longer-active/</link>
      <pubDate>Sat, 15 Nov 2008 22:56:22 -0500</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2008/11/15/columbias-account-is-no-longer-active/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;This doesn’t sound good: While researching a Howard County-related blog post today I happened to follow a Google search to &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.columbia-md.com/&#34;&gt;www.columbia-md.com&lt;/a&gt; (a &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.whois.net/whois_new.cgi?d=columbia-md&amp;amp;tld=com&#34;&gt;domain controlled by General Growth Partners&lt;/a&gt;), and got the following &lt;a href=&#34;http://whm.maiatech.com/suspended.page/&#34;&gt;message&lt;/a&gt;: “This Account Is No Longer Active.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;I guess when &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-tue_general-growthnov11,0,4160199.story&#34;&gt;your stock’s in the toilet and you’re flirting with bankruptcy&lt;/a&gt; you’ve got more pressing things to worry about than keeping your web sites up.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This doesn’t sound good: While researching a Howard County-related blog post today I happened to follow a Google search to <a href="http://www.columbia-md.com/">www.columbia-md.com</a> (a <a href="http://www.whois.net/whois_new.cgi?d=columbia-md&amp;tld=com">domain controlled by General Growth Partners</a>), and got the following <a href="http://whm.maiatech.com/suspended.page/">message</a>: “This Account Is No Longer Active.”</p>
<p>I guess when <a href="http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-tue_general-growthnov11,0,4160199.story">your stock’s in the toilet and you’re flirting with bankruptcy</a> you’ve got more pressing things to worry about than keeping your web sites up.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>So Bill Gates walks into Howard County . . .</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2008/10/01/so-bill-gates-walks-into-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Wed, 01 Oct 2008 00:26:57 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2008/10/01/so-bill-gates-walks-into-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;In a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/2008/09/09/the-wealthy-few-in-howard-county/&#34;&gt;previous post&lt;/a&gt; I investigated the question of whether those in Howard County with annual incomes of $120,000 or more truly constituted the “wealthy few” or not.  (The answer: No.)  Key to that investigation was the idea of median household income, as reported by the US Census Bureau in its annual &lt;a href=&#34;http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&amp;amp;_submenuId=&amp;amp;_lang=en&amp;amp;_ts=&#34;&gt;Amercian Community Survey&lt;/a&gt;.  It turns out that the ACS data provide some interesting insights into what makes Howard County special, and can help explain the nature of the conflicts that have raged over the future of Howard County in general and Columbia in particular.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a <a href="/2008/09/09/the-wealthy-few-in-howard-county/">previous post</a> I investigated the question of whether those in Howard County with annual incomes of $120,000 or more truly constituted the “wealthy few” or not.  (The answer: No.)  Key to that investigation was the idea of median household income, as reported by the US Census Bureau in its annual <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DatasetMainPageServlet?_program=ACS&amp;_submenuId=&amp;_lang=en&amp;_ts=">Amercian Community Survey</a>.  It turns out that the ACS data provide some interesting insights into what makes Howard County special, and can help explain the nature of the conflicts that have raged over the future of Howard County in general and Columbia in particular.</p>
<p>In this post I’ll start with a concept that is easy to understand but has interesting implications, namely median income and its relationship to average (or mean) income.  Let’s suppose we want to look at household incomes in Howard County or any other jurisdiction.  We can compute the mean income (to use the preferred term) by adding all the household incomes and then dividing by the number of households.  To simplify things, let’s assume we have only 10 households with incomes as follows:</p>
<p>$16,000 $37,000 $56,000 $75,000 $92,000 $111,000 $132,000 $163,000 $190,000 $317,000</p>
<p>The sum of all incomes is $1,189,000, and then we divide by 10 to get an mean (or average) income of $118,900.  Simple enough, right?</p>
<p>Wrong.  The problem with mean income is that it doesn’t necessarily represent the reality for the “typical” household, because it can be skewed by households that have either disproportionately small or (especially) disproportionally large income.  For example, let’s suppose that the highest-income household in our example greatly increases its income (perhaps they’ve been the beneficiary of a successful IPO, for example), so that the incomes now look as follows:</p>
<p>$16,000 $37,000 $56,000 $75,000 $92,000 $111,000 $132,000 $163,000 $190,000 $1,558,000</p>
<p>The total of all 10 household incomes is now $2,430,000, which divided by 10 gives a mean household income of $243,000.  Thus the mean household income has more than doubled, but the “typical” household (9 out of 10 of them, in this example) sees no improvement in its own income.</p>
<p>To correct for this distortion the Census Bureau and others use a different measure of household income, namely median income.  The median income is the income that “falls in the middle”: half of all incomes are lower, and half are higher.  In the example we have five households with income of $92,000 or less, and five households with income of $111,000 or greater.  We then compute the median income as the value halfway between these two incomes, or $101,500.  (This happens to be very close to the Howard County median household income of $101,672 in 2007; as will become apparent later, I deliberately chose these example numbers to create a microcosm of Howard County.)</p>
<p>Note that in computing the median income we didn’t specify whether we were using the first set of incomes or the second set of incomes (in which the highest-income household greatly increased its income).  That’s because it doesn’t matter: the median income is exactly the same in both cases.  Using median income thus avoids the distortion inherent in average income, where (as the economics joke goes), Bill Gates can walk into a bar and cause the average income to skyrocket.</p>
<p>But using median income has its own problems as well.  Suppose that instead of walking into a bar, Bill Gates moved to Howard County.  Or to achieve the same overall effect, 50 billionaires moved into Howard County, or 500 people worth $100M each.  There are almost 100,000 households in Howard County, so adding a few hundred super-rich families isn’t going to affect the county’s median income at all (just as making one family wealthier didn’t affect median income in our toy example).  But can anyone doubt that such an influx would change the character of Howard County in major ways?</p>
<p>How could this effect be quantified?  That will be the subject of a <a href="/2008/11/16/income-inequality-in-howard-county-part-1/">future post</a>.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="32bbc81d-001"><a href="http://fullmeasure.co.uk" title="steve@fullmeasure.co.uk">Steve Lee</a> - 2008-10-01 07:52</h4>
<p>&gt; Bill Gates moved to Howard County. Or to achieve the same overall effect, 50 billionaires moved into Howard County, or 500 people worth $100M each. Now that *really* puts BG&rsquo;s worth onto perspective. Definitely not the mode.</p>
<h4 id="32bbc81d-002"><a href="http://www.twitter.com/jessiex" title="newburn.jessie@gmail.com">JessieX</a> - 2008-10-17 03:22</h4>
<p>Welcome, Frank, to the &ldquo;community listing&rdquo; inside HocoBlogs. Happy to have your thoughts and perspectives articulated and available to Da Public.</p>
<h4 id="32bbc81d-003">Eugene (ewwmko@yahoo.com) - 2008-10-20 15:10</h4>
<p>Nice article. Thanks. :) Eugene</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>The “wealthy few” in Howard County</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2008/09/09/the-wealthy-few-in-howard-county/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 09 Sep 2008 09:15:19 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2008/09/09/the-wealthy-few-in-howard-county/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;Last night a &lt;a href=&#34;http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2008/09/you-just-cant-make-some-folks-happy.html&#34;&gt;post by local blogger Wordbones&lt;/a&gt; caught my eye.  Based on a &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/howard/bal-ho.affordable07sep07,0,510826.story&#34;&gt;story in the &lt;em&gt;Baltimore Sun&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/a&gt;, it discussed proposed plans for affordable housing in Columbia Town Center, housing that would be reserved for those with income of less than $80,000 (10% of total units) or those with income between $80,000 and $120,000 (another 10% of total units).  Wordbones particularly noted a quote in the article from Alan Klein of the &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.coalitionforcolumbiasdowntown.org/&#34;&gt;Coalition for Columbia’s Downtown&lt;/a&gt;:&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last night a <a href="http://writing-the-wrongs.blogspot.com/2008/09/you-just-cant-make-some-folks-happy.html">post by local blogger Wordbones</a> caught my eye.  Based on a <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/howard/bal-ho.affordable07sep07,0,510826.story">story in the <em>Baltimore Sun</em></a>, it discussed proposed plans for affordable housing in Columbia Town Center, housing that would be reserved for those with income of less than $80,000 (10% of total units) or those with income between $80,000 and $120,000 (another 10% of total units).  Wordbones particularly noted a quote in the article from Alan Klein of the <a href="http://www.coalitionforcolumbiasdowntown.org/">Coalition for Columbia’s Downtown</a>:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Klein noted that 80 percent of the 5,500 residential units planned would be for people making more than $120,000, which he defined as “the wealthy few.” “It seems like a pretty elite group,” said Klein, referring to the 20 percent [of units reserved for those making less than $120,000] as “a drop in the bucket.”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Wordbones questioned this characterization, and I myself was curious as to whether it was really true.  When in doubt the best rule is to go to the data, which in this case are from the annual <a href="http://www.census.gov/acs/www/index.html">American Community Survey</a> produced by the US Census Bureau.<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>  In some comments on Wordbones’s blog I referenced the 2006 ACS data, but as it turns out the <a href="http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/users_guide/2007/index.htm">2007 ACS estimates</a> were just released, as highlighted in a <a href="http://www.explorehoward.com/news/11042/howard-remains-states-richest-county/">recent <em>Columbia Flier</em> story</a> about Howard County being the third-wealthiest county in the country.</p>
<p>So what do the data say?  According to the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19001&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">detailed breakdown of household income for Howard County in 2007</a>, about 37% of Howard County households have incomes of $125,000 or more;<sup id="fnref:2"><a href="#fn:2" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">2</a></sup> if we add in the households between $120,000 and $125,000, and also allow for the effects of wage inflation over the past year, almost 40% of Howard County households (or nearly two out of five) are part of Alan Klein’s “pretty elite group.”</p>
<p>But wait, there’s more!  The ACS distinguishes “households” from “families”; among other things, the ACS definition of “family” excludes people living alone.<sup id="fnref:3"><a href="#fn:3" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">3</a></sup>  If we look at the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19101&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">detailed data for Howard County family income for 2007</a> we find that 46% of Howard County families have family incomes of $125,000 or more.  Also, the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19113&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-geo_id=05000US24027&amp;-search_results=01000US&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">median Howard County family income for 2007</a> was $115,907, meaning 50% of Howard County families had income higher than that.  So if we again add in the effects of wage inflation it’s likely that Alan Klein’s “weathy few” (for whom 80% of the proposed units are <del>reserved</del> intended) includes half the families in Howard County.</p>
<p>To give Klein his due, $120,000 <em>is</em> an unusually high income for the US as a whole; <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19001&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-geo_id=01000US&amp;-geo_id=NBSP&amp;-search_results=05000US24027&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">detailed household income data for the entire US</a> show that only 12% of US households had income of $125,000 or more in 2007, and the <a href="http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/DTTable?_bm=y&amp;-context=dt&amp;-ds_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G00_&amp;-CONTEXT=dt&amp;-mt_name=ACS_2007_1YR_G2000_B19101&amp;-tree_id=307&amp;-redoLog=false&amp;-geo_id=01000US&amp;-geo_id=NBSP&amp;-search_results=05000US24027&amp;-format=&amp;-_lang=en">corresponding data for family income</a> show that less than 16% of US families had family income above that level.  This underscores the unusual position of Howard County as a very wealthy jurisdiction.  Wordbones doubted whether “any typical family in Columbia with a household income of $120,000 sees themselves as being wealthy,” and in the context of Howard County at least he’s absolutely right.</p>
<hr>
<h4 id="ad4b010e-002"><a href="http://www.ticketpoint.de" title="ticketpoint@gmx.de">Billigflüge</a> - 2008-10-30 09:16</h4>
<p>Great, well sophisticated article. Your conclusions seem plausible. I&rsquo;ve learned two things: 1. It makes sense to study local stats. 2. Howard County must be a wonderful place to live.</p>
<div class="footnotes" role="doc-endnotes">
<hr>
<ol>
<li id="fn:1">
<p>The ACS is a survey based on random samples, not a comprehensive survey like the ten-year census.  Because of that there is some sampling error in the results, such that the true figures might be a few percentage points higher or lower.  I’ve ignored this in my discussion (as do most press stories on the ACS data).&#160;<a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:2">
<p>ACS figures are in “2007 inflation-adjusted dollars.”  I wondered a bit about what this meant until I figured it out: ACS data are taken throughout the year, and wage inflation over the course of the year causes incomes to increase slowly from month to month.  The Census Bureau uses monthly inflation figures to adjust the numbers so that they are comparable, i.e., as if they were all taken in a single month in 2007.&#160;<a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
<li id="fn:3">
<p>According to the <a href="http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Downloads/2007/usedata/Subject_Definitions.pdf">official ACS definitions</a>, “[a] household includes all the people who occupy a housing unit,” while “[a] family consists of a householder and one or more other people living in the same household who are related to the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption.”  In general the number of families will be less than the number of households: “Not all households contain families since a household may be comprised of a group of unrelated people or of one person living alone&mdash;these are called nonfamily households.” Thus, for example, in the 2007 ACS data Howard County is estimated as having 98,866 households but only 73,765 families.&#160;<a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-backref" role="doc-backlink">&#x21a9;&#xfe0e;</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
    <item>
      <title>Blogging closer to home</title>
      <link>https://frankhecker.com/2008/09/09/blogging-closer-to-home/</link>
      <pubDate>Tue, 09 Sep 2008 08:55:19 -0400</pubDate>
      <guid>https://frankhecker.com/2008/09/09/blogging-closer-to-home/</guid>
      <description>&lt;p&gt;For those Mozilla folks and others who’ve been following my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/feed/&#34;&gt;full blog feed&lt;/a&gt;: I happen to live in &lt;a href=&#34;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_County,_Maryland&#34;&gt;Howard County, Maryland&lt;/a&gt;, between Washington DC and Baltimore.For a while now I’ve been following &lt;a href=&#34;http://www.hocoblogs.com/&#34;&gt;Howard County local bloggers&lt;/a&gt; but haven’t joined the conversation myself.  I’ve now been prompted to write on at least one Howard County topic, and in the event I write more I’ve started a &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/category/howardcounty/&#34;&gt;Howard County category&lt;/a&gt; for my blog and a corresponding feed.  If you’re not interested in this stuff I suggest you consider resubscribing to just my &lt;a href=&#34;https://frankhecker.com/feed/mozilla/&#34;&gt;Mozilla feed&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;</description>
      <content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For those Mozilla folks and others who’ve been following my <a href="/feed/">full blog feed</a>: I happen to live in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howard_County,_Maryland">Howard County, Maryland</a>, between Washington DC and Baltimore.For a while now I’ve been following <a href="http://www.hocoblogs.com/">Howard County local bloggers</a> but haven’t joined the conversation myself.  I’ve now been prompted to write on at least one Howard County topic, and in the event I write more I’ve started a <a href="/category/howardcounty/">Howard County category</a> for my blog and a corresponding feed.  If you’re not interested in this stuff I suggest you consider resubscribing to just my <a href="/feed/mozilla/">Mozilla feed</a>.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
    </item>
  </channel>
</rss>
